13/07/2014 Sunday Politics North West


13/07/2014

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Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay

:00:37.:00:42.

As the campaign heads for the final furlong,

:00:43.:00:45.

what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?

:00:46.:00:49.

The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.

:00:50.:00:53.

David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.

:00:54.:00:56.

Many of those tipped for promotion are women.

:00:57.:00:58.

So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or

:00:59.:01:03.

And don't know whether to support Germany or

:01:04.:01:12.

Fear not, we'll bring you our political guide to the World Cup.

:01:13.:01:18.

Reaction in this region to the public sector strikes.

:01:19.:01:22.

And university challenge ` the Muslim families facing a dilemma

:01:23.:01:24.

It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the

:01:25.:01:41.

Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis

:01:42.:01:46.

we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.

:01:47.:01:50.

And for top political analysis you may

:01:51.:01:52.

as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick

:01:53.:01:56.

David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.

:01:57.:02:06.

The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be

:02:07.:02:09.

in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.

:02:10.:02:12.

The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,

:02:13.:02:14.

reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox

:02:15.:02:16.

is in line for a return to the political front line.

:02:17.:02:20.

But there's general agreement that women will do well and some

:02:21.:02:27.

of the old men in suits guard will do badly.

:02:28.:02:30.

Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.

:02:31.:02:40.

It's good to make parliament more representative.

:02:41.:02:46.

But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create

:02:47.:02:50.

injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.

:02:51.:02:53.

I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is

:02:54.:03:23.

going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not

:03:24.:03:31.

be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It

:03:32.:03:36.

is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a

:03:37.:03:39.

great interest in talking it up. media and the government have a

:03:40.:03:43.

great interest in talking it up The government says, haven't we

:03:44.:03:47.

refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't

:03:48.:05:18.

refreshed ourselves? Generally it about. I do not think he has allowed

:05:19.:05:22.

it to be all-male since that embarrassing image. I can understand

:05:23.:05:26.

the criticism made of this approach if it was the case that all the

:05:27.:05:29.

women being promoted by talentless but you have to be very harsh to

:05:30.:05:36.

look at them and say that they would have much less to offer than the

:05:37.:05:50.

likes of Andrew Lansley. You can be pro-feminist. The tests for David

:05:51.:05:55.

Cameron is that having raised expectations he has to give them

:05:56.:05:59.

substantial jobs. They have to be given departments to run or big

:06:00.:06:04.

portfolios to carry. If they are given media campaign positions in

:06:05.:06:06.

the run-up to the election it looks perfunctorily. He is under some

:06:07.:06:14.

trouble to perhaps suggest a female commissioner to the European Union

:06:15.:06:20.

Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has made clear that if he proposes a

:06:21.:06:26.

woman candidate they will get a better job. Saying they would like

:06:27.:06:35.

ten out of the 28 to be women. We are going to get the name of the

:06:36.:06:39.

British candidate at the same time as the reshuffle. The first

:06:40.:06:47.

face-to-face meeting, he will be able to put a name. There are other

:06:48.:06:52.

names in the frame. People like Archie Norman. That come from? His

:06:53.:07:03.

name is in the frame. There would be great scepticism of giving it to

:07:04.:07:07.

Andrew Lansley. People would think he was the man who mucked up the

:07:08.:07:11.

reform of the NHS. Who is it going to be? Either a woman or a man. I

:07:12.:07:19.

would not be surprised if they go for someone believe dynamic. Someone

:07:20.:07:25.

who would square the party. Would that not mean a by-election? It

:07:26.:07:32.

might. She is a high profile Eurosceptic. She is a very competent

:07:33.:07:37.

former banker. It would be the smart choice. I have no idea but my

:07:38.:07:42.

favourite rumour is Michael Howard. That had some legs for a while.

:07:43.:07:51.

The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street predict with confidence that the PM

:07:52.:07:55.

is going to promote more women in his cabinet reshuffle.

:07:56.:07:56.

The move can be seen as part of a move across British public life

:07:57.:08:00.

to do more to make our institutions less male and less white.

:08:01.:08:03.

But as the list of schemes to encourage diversity

:08:04.:08:05.

grows ever-longer, have we abandoned the idea of appointment by merit?

:08:06.:08:16.

Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for new trains. It does not get more

:08:17.:08:24.

macho than the Crossrail project. When Crossrail looked at the

:08:25.:08:27.

construction industry they realise that less than 20% was made up

:08:28.:08:38.

construction industry they realise women and they asked, can we fix it?

:08:39.:08:38.

They are trying with a recruitment drive that has brought in female

:08:39.:08:44.

engineers like this woman. She even has a tunnel named after her. Having

:08:45.:08:49.

more female engineers and construction brings a bigger range

:08:50.:08:52.

of opinions, a bigger range of ideas, more diversity, into the

:08:53.:08:57.

industry, and makes it better as a whole. It is the issue being

:08:58.:09:02.

grappled in another male dominated workplace, the Cabinet. There is

:09:03.:09:06.

about to be a reach shuffle and the rumour is David Cameron is going to

:09:07.:09:10.

promote a lot of female ministers. It was a lack of promotion that

:09:11.:09:15.

annoyed Harriet Harman this week. She claimed Gordon Brown did not

:09:16.:09:19.

make her Deputy Prime Minister because she was a woman. It was

:09:20.:09:24.

strange that in a hard-fought highly contested election to be deputy

:09:25.:09:28.

leader of the Labour Party, and having won against men in the

:09:29.:09:33.

Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy leader of the Labour Party I

:09:34.:09:36.

discovered that I was not to be appointed as Deputy Prime Minister.

:09:37.:09:40.

For women in this country, no matter how able they are, the matter how

:09:41.:09:48.

hard they might work, they are still not equal. There are initiatives to

:09:49.:09:51.

make the world feel more equal. In the City the EU wants a quarter for

:09:52.:09:57.

women in the boardroom but that goal of making 40% of the top floor

:09:58.:10:03.

female. At the BBC the boss of the TV division says no panel show

:10:04.:10:09.

should ever be all-male. In the ever glamorous movie business the British

:10:10.:10:13.

film Institute announced their new thematic system to get lottery

:10:14.:10:18.

funding projects improving diversity on screen and off and helping social

:10:19.:10:25.

mobility. Employers like Crossrail are not allowed to positively

:10:26.:10:30.

discriminate but under the quality act of 2010 if two candidate for a

:10:31.:10:35.

job are just as good you are allowed to base your decision on

:10:36.:10:37.

characteristics like race, sexuality and gender. Some worry it has

:10:38.:10:44.

chipped away at the idea of hiring on merit. A woman and three men

:10:45.:10:51.

going for a job, two of the men are really good and the woman is not

:10:52.:10:55.

quite as good but she gets the job anyway. That will create injustice,

:10:56.:11:02.

a feeling that she did not deserve the job, resentment. It does not

:11:03.:11:09.

advance equality in society at all. On this project they want to leave a

:11:10.:11:16.

concrete legacy of a more diverse construction industry. The question

:11:17.:11:20.

is, what tools do you use when it comes to the rest of society?

:11:21.:11:31.

I'm joined now by Yasmin Alibhai-Brown,

:11:32.:11:33.

a columnist for the Independent and by Munira Mirza, the deputy

:11:34.:11:35.

mayor of London responsible for education and culture.

:11:36.:11:43.

Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches though. Should David Cameron be

:11:44.:11:51.

promoting women? He is going to do it anyway. He should have a long

:11:52.:11:58.

time ago. It does not feel quite right that a few months before the

:11:59.:12:02.

election it would do the party a lot of good to be seen as a party

:12:03.:12:07.

properly reflective of the entire population. He should promote women

:12:08.:12:14.

because they are women? I think he should think about lots of different

:12:15.:12:17.

factors, whether the people he wants promote have proven themselves in

:12:18.:12:23.

their current reefs, whether they are good performers in the media,

:12:24.:12:26.

whether they represent different parts of the party, but the main

:12:27.:12:32.

principle is to promote on basis of merit. There are many talented women

:12:33.:12:37.

who fill that description. It should be that merit is the important thing

:12:38.:12:43.

rather than what you were born with. The thing about positive

:12:44.:12:44.

discrimination as it flies in the face of that kind of principle. You

:12:45.:12:51.

are shaking your head. We have always had positive discrimination.

:12:52.:12:53.

Men of a certain class have appointed in their own image because

:12:54.:13:01.

they feel most comfortable with that. We have had unspoken positive

:13:02.:13:06.

discrimination in this country and every other country throughout

:13:07.:13:11.

history. We are asking as women, all minorities, let us get into the same

:13:12.:13:17.

game. What do you say? You cannot solve the racism or the sexism of

:13:18.:13:21.

the past by more racism and sexism. It is not the past. There are

:13:22.:13:27.

complex reasons why a smaller number of women will appear in certain

:13:28.:13:32.

industries. It has a lot to do with childcare, education, expected. You

:13:33.:13:37.

cannot short cut that by setting a target. That is not how you achieve

:13:38.:13:42.

equality. Things are changing and more women are appearing in

:13:43.:13:45.

engineering and so on but it will take time. My worry is that these

:13:46.:13:49.

kinds of measures are counter-productive and undermine the

:13:50.:13:52.

perception that women can do it on their own merit rather

:13:53.:13:53.

counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it than

:13:54.:13:58.

because they need a helping hand. It is not a helping hand. It is to say,

:13:59.:14:02.

we are as good as men and these hidden barriers. Dot. Either they

:14:03.:14:13.

are not as good or they do not want it, which is just how we persuade

:14:14.:14:15.

are not as good or they do not want it, which ourselves that it is not

:14:16.:14:20.

happening, or there are barriers. How we judge meritocracy is at the

:14:21.:14:26.

heart of it. Are lots of industries won there are not that many women,

:14:27.:14:33.

such as engineering. We need more engineers generally. I think it is

:14:34.:14:38.

fine to try to encourage more women to study that subject. By setting a

:14:39.:14:46.

target you put pressure on an organisation. You tried to ignore

:14:47.:14:54.

the complex reasons why women do not go into those sectors. I think an

:14:55.:15:17.

all-female short list achieved miracle in Parliament. This is

:15:18.:15:23.

following up from having an injection of women coming up because

:15:24.:15:27.

the system was changed and a large percentage of women went into

:15:28.:15:34.

Parliament under the all-female short list were brilliant, so why

:15:35.:15:41.

not? So if the Prime Minister is mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has

:15:42.:15:47.

to be female and vice versa? Yes, absolutely, 50-50. We need to

:15:48.:15:56.

reflect the population. If we want to play this as a symbolic gesture,

:15:57.:16:03.

ideally we should have one of each. Why should a man get the job if you

:16:04.:16:07.

have a great female prime minister and a great female Deputy Prime

:16:08.:16:16.

Minister? I personally wouldn't mind this. I hear the disgruntled man and

:16:17.:16:24.

I want to come -- them to come with us. You're choosing people on the

:16:25.:16:30.

basis of traits they were born with. Are there too many Indian

:16:31.:16:36.

doctors in the NHS? I would argue not. Given that we tend to have male

:16:37.:16:41.

prime ministers rather than female ones, and we don't see another

:16:42.:16:45.

female one coming down the pipe very quickly... In the time before women

:16:46.:16:55.

short lists by the way. If you had a male prime minister with a female

:16:56.:16:59.

Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that give some balance? Why women? Why

:17:00.:17:06.

not working class person, which group do you prioritise? I would go

:17:07.:17:11.

with you that we need something fundamental to change. This idea

:17:12.:17:15.

that what we have now is a reflection of a genuine meritocracy

:17:16.:17:19.

is highly questionable. I would argue that when you look at the

:17:20.:17:22.

statistics things are changing. argue that when you look at the

:17:23.:17:24.

statistics things There are more women appearing in parts of public

:17:25.:17:29.

life, that is a long-term trend, but if you are trying to appoint people

:17:30.:17:36.

on what they were born with... That is not the only reason but it is an

:17:37.:17:40.

additional reason. She has to be able to do the job, obviously. I am

:17:41.:17:46.

saying the policy of hazard to discrimination explicitly state that

:17:47.:17:50.

you should choose somebody who is female because they are female. At

:17:51.:17:55.

the moment there is already enough suspicion about women who are

:17:56.:18:00.

successful to get to the senior position and if you institutionalise

:18:01.:18:05.

it you reinforce that suspicion. Harriet Harman is still complaining

:18:06.:18:11.

women are not being treated fairly. I think the policy reinforces the

:18:12.:18:15.

prejudice that women are not getting there because they are treated on

:18:16.:18:21.

the same basis. Although you may not want to have the all-female short

:18:22.:18:25.

list forever, wasn't it the kind of shock to the system that made a

:18:26.:18:30.

visible change in female representation, which the Tory side

:18:31.:18:38.

hasn't got? Of course it will work short-term but longer term it has a

:18:39.:18:43.

very degrading effect on the principle of equality and the fact

:18:44.:18:47.

Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't treated equally, whether it is true

:18:48.:18:51.

or not, the perception is still there. A number of women find this

:18:52.:19:00.

position must be reserved for a woman lying patronising, and

:19:01.:19:05.

speaking of patronising women, you spoken your Independent column, she

:19:06.:19:13.

presses all of the buttons for white people... Was that patronising and

:19:14.:19:18.

offensive? Probably. I wrote it because I felt that at the time but

:19:19.:19:24.

the point is that I was a token when I was appointed. The paper brought

:19:25.:19:30.

me in because I was a woman and I was a muslin or whatever. You are

:19:31.:19:35.

not writing about yourself. I was writing... It doesn't mean you don't

:19:36.:19:49.

criticise other women. We absolutely have to be tough, Manira is tough

:19:50.:19:57.

and so am I. Do you want to take back what you wrote? No. Do you

:19:58.:20:02.

really think positive discrimination has gone too far? I think there is

:20:03.:20:10.

already a suspicion out there that in certain sectors women are being

:20:11.:20:15.

promoted for the wrong reasons or ethnic minorities are being promoted

:20:16.:20:19.

for the wrong reasons. That is a shame and my worry is that by tying

:20:20.:20:24.

funding to your ethnicity or your gender, by saying you will get a

:20:25.:20:27.

promotion if you check that box, gender, by saying you will get a

:20:28.:20:29.

promotion if you check that box but promotion if you check that box, but

:20:30.:20:31.

you feel that resentment and prejudice and undermine the case for

:20:32.:20:42.

inequality. I wanted to be treated equally, because I am capable of

:20:43.:20:48.

doing that job. Only two months to go before Scotland takes its biggest

:20:49.:20:56.

constitutional decision in 300 years - should it quit or stay with the

:20:57.:21:01.

UK? For some in Scotland campaign has been going on forever. What has

:21:02.:21:06.

been the impact on the campaign to date?

:21:07.:21:12.

Alex Salmond says Scotland would remain part of the European Union

:21:13.:21:17.

with sterling as its currency in a monetary union with the rest of the

:21:18.:21:22.

UK, but he has also promised more public spending, increased child

:21:23.:21:28.

care provision and free personal care for the elderly. The SNP claims

:21:29.:21:35.

it would leave people better off by ?1000 though that partly depends on

:21:36.:21:41.

the price of oil. With the Better Together arguing against

:21:42.:21:47.

independence, it has naturally been attacking the SNP on all fronts.

:21:48.:21:51.

George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso

:21:52.:21:58.

told the BBC it would be extremely difficult for Scotland to join the

:21:59.:22:03.

EU after a yes vote. His successor this week said he agreed. Unions

:22:04.:22:17.

claim Scotland benefit by ?1400 by being part of the UK. A poll this

:22:18.:22:24.

morning shows a significant lead of 57% for the no campaign, leaving the

:22:25.:22:31.

SNP to claim it will go their way in the last ten weeks. Nicola Sturgeon,

:22:32.:22:36.

the Deputy First Minister of Scotland, joins me now. You want an

:22:37.:22:40.

independent Scotland to keep the pound, stay in NATO, stay in the

:22:41.:22:47.

EU, Scotland already has all of that but you cannot guarantee it would

:22:48.:22:52.

have any of it in an independent Scotland, why take the risk? All of

:22:53.:22:59.

these things should be the case because they are in the best

:23:00.:23:02.

interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK but we want the powers to

:23:03.:23:08.

enable us to grow our economy faster, to be productive, and

:23:09.:23:14.

overtime increased the prosperity of people living in Scotland. We also

:23:15.:23:19.

want powers over our social security system so that we can create a

:23:20.:23:25.

system that meets our needs, one that also has a safety net for the

:23:26.:23:29.

most vulnerable people in our society. Independence is about

:23:30.:23:36.

letting us decide our own priorities. You didn't answer my

:23:37.:23:40.

question, you cannot guarantee you would be able to keep the pound

:23:41.:23:44.

within a monetary union, stay in NATO and the EU, you cannot

:23:45.:23:50.

guarantee you could produce any of these things, correct? I would argue

:23:51.:23:55.

that we can because these things are also in the interest of the rest of

:23:56.:24:00.

the UK. No country can be prevented from using the pound, I suggest we

:24:01.:24:05.

use that within a formal monetary union. We have had the UK minister

:24:06.:24:10.

quoted in the Guardian saying the position of the UK Government right

:24:11.:24:15.

now is one based on campaign rhetoric and following a yes vote,

:24:16.:24:19.

of course there would be a currency union. Who is that minister? The

:24:20.:24:27.

Minister is unnamed, but nevertheless that story in the

:24:28.:24:32.

Guardian was a solid one and not substantially denied. So you are

:24:33.:24:37.

basing your monetary policy on one on named minister in one story?

:24:38.:24:46.

Basing it on Common sense because monetary union would be in the best

:24:47.:24:51.

interests for Scotland but also overwhelmingly in the interests of

:24:52.:24:55.

the rest of the UK, given their trading relationship with Scotland

:24:56.:25:00.

and the contribution Scotland's exports make. We are having a very

:25:01.:25:08.

good debate and the UK Government and the no campaign, and this is not

:25:09.:25:19.

a criticism, want to talk up in -- uncertainty to make people feel

:25:20.:25:25.

scared, but after independence there will be constructed process of

:25:26.:25:29.

negotiation. Let's stick with the monetary union because most

:25:30.:25:31.

economists agree it would be very good for an independent Scotland to

:25:32.:25:36.

have a monetary union but George Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander

:25:37.:25:41.

are unequivocal, they say you won't get it. You claim they are bluffing

:25:42.:25:47.

but again you cannot guarantee that so why the risk? I would say the

:25:48.:25:51.

benefits of independence are substantial but I would also say to

:25:52.:25:55.

George Osborne and his counterparts in the other parties that it would

:25:56.:25:59.

be a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

:26:00.:26:05.

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of half

:26:06.:26:07.

a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of

:26:08.:26:52.

a very brave Chancellor that says to and one said it could even be

:26:53.:26:55.

impossible, you dismissed him because he was standing down, but

:26:56.:27:52.

impossible, you dismissed him still says it will be anything but a

:27:53.:27:57.

seamless transition. He said you could not join the European Union by

:27:58.:28:02.

sending a letter, that is not our proposal. We set down a robust

:28:03.:28:16.

proposal and the timescale we think is reasonable under these

:28:17.:28:20.

circumstances. There are many nationals of other states living in

:28:21.:28:26.

Scotland right now, if we were to be outside of the European Union for

:28:27.:28:29.

any period of time, something the current treaty doesn't even provide

:28:30.:28:34.

for, they would lose their right to stay here. The interests of Scotland

:28:35.:28:38.

and the interests of European Union are in favour of a seamless

:28:39.:28:43.

transition. It comes down to common sense and people in Scotland will

:28:44.:28:45.

make sense and people in Scotland will

:28:46.:28:48.

their own judgement on who is talking the common-sense. What about

:28:49.:28:54.

NATO, two years ago you told Newsnight the SNP's position is that

:28:55.:29:00.

we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a democratic debate, we looked at

:29:01.:29:05.

whether it would be in the interests of an independent Scotland, which

:29:06.:29:08.

forms a significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic and

:29:09.:29:17.

the party changed its mind. It did so in a thoroughly democratic way.

:29:18.:29:19.

That is the nature of democracy. That is the nature of democracy

:29:20.:29:28.

Would you accept the protection of the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is

:29:29.:29:39.

no doubt the SNP's position is that we do not want nuclear weapons in

:29:40.:29:47.

Scotland. That is not what I asked. The world rid themselves of nuclear

:29:48.:29:50.

weapons. One of the interesting point is of the 28 member countries

:29:51.:29:55.

of Natal 25 do not have nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland...

:29:56.:30:00.

I asked if you would accept the nuclear umbrella. The key feature of

:30:01.:30:11.

NATO's military dog train is now clear shrike. We would accept the

:30:12.:30:18.

basis of which NATO is founded but we would argue two things. We want

:30:19.:30:24.

Trident removed from Scotland rather than have a situation where might we

:30:25.:30:28.

are spending ?100 billion over the next generation replacing Trident

:30:29.:30:33.

and we would argue within the international community that the

:30:34.:30:38.

world should move much more quickly to rid itself of nuclear weapons.

:30:39.:30:42.

That is the principal position and won the SNP has held consistently

:30:43.:30:46.

for many years. You would get rid of one of the key parts of the NATO

:30:47.:30:52.

deterrent based in Scotland. You would kick that out. You would not

:30:53.:30:57.

accept all of the club rules because you do not like the idea of nuclear.

:30:58.:31:02.

Why would they like a member like you in? Because Scotland is a

:31:03.:31:07.

significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic. You do not

:31:08.:31:13.

subscribe to the rules. 25 of the member states of NATO are

:31:14.:31:18.

non-nuclear members. You are saying you do not follow the doctrine. NATO

:31:19.:31:26.

has said it wants to move away from reliance on nuclear weapons. An

:31:27.:31:29.

independent Scotland would be entering the majority mainstream of

:31:30.:31:34.

NATO as a country that did not have nuclear weapons. By leading by

:31:35.:31:40.

example our moral authority and encouraging others to do likewise

:31:41.:31:44.

would be increased. Money and oil, the finance minister has said that

:31:45.:31:49.

an independent Scotland would increase public spending by 3% a

:31:50.:31:52.

year. He would pay for that by borrowing. Your First Minister says

:31:53.:31:57.

he is going to stash money in an oil fund. You're going to borrow and

:31:58.:32:03.

save. How does that work? There are two points. Firstly in terms of the

:32:04.:32:10.

outlook for finances and what is one of the central debates of this

:32:11.:32:15.

referendum campaign, austerity that we know will continue if we stay as

:32:16.:32:19.

part of the Westminster system versus prosperity. The economy can

:32:20.:32:24.

afford a higher level of increase in public spending while we continue to

:32:25.:32:28.

have deficit levels at a sustainable level. What is the point of

:32:29.:32:34.

borrowing and saving at the same time? People who have a mortgage and

:32:35.:32:39.

the savings account would not themselves what the wisdom of that

:32:40.:32:45.

is. This is based on recommendations of our expert fiscal Commission that

:32:46.:32:48.

as borrowing reduces to sustainable levels it makes sense to start

:32:49.:32:54.

saving a proportion of our oil wealth. In Norway, which has many

:32:55.:33:01.

similarities to Scotland, they have an oil fund worth ?500 billion.

:33:02.:33:06.

Scotland is part of the Westminster system is sitting on a share of UK

:33:07.:33:11.

debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth,

:33:12.:33:15.

debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth to

:33:16.:33:17.

be mismanaged or we can decide we are going to manage that resource

:33:18.:33:21.

better in the years to come. Your figures do not add up unless you are

:33:22.:33:28.

about oil prices and revenue and you have been consistently wrong in your

:33:29.:33:31.

predictions. Last year you forecast that revenues would be the .7

:33:32.:33:38.

billion more than they actually work -- 3.7 billion. The cost of the

:33:39.:33:46.

Scottish school system gone. There were particular reasons for that in

:33:47.:33:50.

terms of interruption to production and bigger levels of investment.

:33:51.:33:54.

Used ill have to find the money Let me explain. They are based on robust

:33:55.:34:01.

assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the

:34:02.:34:04.

estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are

:34:05.:34:08.

based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been

:34:09.:34:16.

wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in

:34:17.:34:22.

the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with

:34:23.:34:28.

industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in

:34:29.:34:31.

cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy

:34:32.:34:39.

is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is

:34:40.:34:43.

cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except

:34:44.:34:50.

they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow

:34:51.:34:55.

nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,

:34:56.:35:00.

you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social

:35:01.:35:04.

democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels

:35:05.:35:08.

of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I

:35:09.:35:15.

want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free

:35:16.:35:21.

medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get

:35:22.:35:26.

more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in

:35:27.:35:31.

the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are

:35:32.:35:33.

raising the overall tax revenue Over the last 33 years we have

:35:34.:35:39.

generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the

:35:40.:35:47.

rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would

:35:48.:35:51.

have been high and in others they would have been law but we take

:35:52.:35:55.

different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the

:35:56.:35:59.

Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the

:36:00.:36:06.

cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the

:36:07.:36:12.

hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources

:36:13.:36:16.

so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the

:36:17.:36:20.

resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic

:36:21.:36:25.

levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of

:36:26.:36:30.

tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what

:36:31.:36:39.

Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but

:36:40.:36:43.

none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For

:36:44.:36:49.

mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.

:36:50.:36:55.

The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth

:36:56.:36:59.

in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has. We

:37:00.:37:04.

are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.

:37:05.:37:09.

We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending

:37:10.:37:13.

resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.

:37:14.:37:17.

These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take

:37:18.:37:21.

the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.

:37:22.:37:33.

This is a week in which we have had public sector strikes. Andrdw, how

:37:34.:38:17.

This is a week in which we have had public sector strikes.

:38:18.:38:20.

Andrew, how disruptive were they in your constituency?

:38:21.:38:22.

I've had very few constituents claiming disruption to

:38:23.:38:24.

There is a lot of discussion nationally about

:38:25.:38:26.

Unions are claiming one figure but I think the actual number was

:38:27.:38:31.

Are they running out of steam do you think, Bill?

:38:32.:38:34.

I think that the people who went on strike on Thursday feel thex have

:38:35.:38:38.

absolutely no choice but to protest against what the Government is doing

:38:39.:38:41.

to them and they have had enough of the way they've been tre`ted

:38:42.:38:45.

Many schools, libraries and leisure centres were

:38:46.:38:47.

closed this week as thousands of public sector workers across

:38:48.:38:51.

Unions say millions of workers are worse off under this Governlent

:38:52.:38:56.

They gathered together to protest here in Preston.

:38:57.:39:03.

In Liverpool, Chester, Manchester and across the region,

:39:04.:39:07.

council staff, health workers, civil servants,

:39:08.:39:13.

teachers and firefighters picketing outside their places of work,

:39:14.:39:16.

marching outside their high streets, unhappy with their places of work.

:39:17.:39:21.

After years of a pay freeze, the Government's latest offer is 1%

:39:22.:39:26.

I am very committed to my job and helping the children learn

:39:27.:39:30.

and yet I do not feel this hs reflected in my pay.

:39:31.:39:38.

The worst of the cuts in local Government are going to

:39:39.:39:41.

come in the next two or three years and it is going to absolutely

:39:42.:39:44.

For the low`paid workers that represent

:39:45.:39:50.

the council, the canteen workers, the cleaners and also women.

:39:51.:39:54.

These are the biggest strikes we've seen

:39:55.:39:57.

And for the workers here in Preston, marching through the city cdntre,

:39:58.:40:04.

It is a message to the Government but also to the Labour leader

:40:05.:40:08.

Ed Miliband who, in the past, has been reluctant to discuss

:40:09.:40:11.

Do you think the strike acthon will make any difference?

:40:12.:40:14.

We want to get the Government to listen.

:40:15.:40:18.

At the end of the day, there are hundreds of people here who are all

:40:19.:40:22.

protesting about the fact that the Government aren't engaging hn talks.

:40:23.:40:25.

Talks we've been trying to negotiate with someone who is not prepared to

:40:26.:40:28.

negotiate, so I want the Government to listen.

:40:29.:40:31.

We are not paying for the mhstakes of the rich in the city of London.

:40:32.:40:36.

But these strikes have divided public opinion.

:40:37.:40:40.

The economic climate being what it is,

:40:41.:40:42.

I think people should be not totally subservient but grateful for a job.

:40:43.:40:50.

They're not getting enough pay for the job that they do

:40:51.:40:52.

They've done it once before and didn't get anywhere.

:40:53.:40:59.

Are they going to get anywhere this time?

:41:00.:41:02.

A local Conservative is sympathetic to concerns over low pay but says

:41:03.:41:06.

There is an assumption now we get an annual rise which

:41:07.:41:12.

That doesn't happen and can't always happen.

:41:13.:41:16.

All I'm saying is what?s affordable and, in certain circumstances,

:41:17.:41:18.

For those involved in the strikes, there is great frustration.

:41:19.:41:24.

They may want a better wage, but the Government is standing firm.

:41:25.:41:28.

This will be a hot topic in the run`up to the general election.

:41:29.:41:34.

And we're also joined by Avis Gilmore,

:41:35.:41:35.

the North West Regional Secretary for the National Union of Tdachers.

:41:36.:41:38.

What was the objective of the strikes?

:41:39.:41:41.

They were sheer frustration from workers across the public sector to

:41:42.:41:47.

the fact that this Government is importing some horrendous pay

:41:48.:41:52.

freezes and caps, trying to decimate the working conditions of people in

:41:53.:42:02.

the public sector and, in otr view, destroy our services as well.

:42:03.:42:05.

The people who work in those services aren't prepared to

:42:06.:42:08.

What are you trying to get out of striking?

:42:09.:42:10.

Some sensible dialogue with the Government.

:42:11.:42:13.

We have had some talks with some officials from the National Union

:42:14.:42:19.

of Teachers' point of view with officials

:42:20.:42:22.

in the Department of Educathon, but they have only been allowed to talk

:42:23.:42:25.

to us about how the Government's policies are implemented.

:42:26.:42:28.

We want to talk to Michael Gove himself about the policies.

:42:29.:42:31.

In terms of the impact of the strikes,

:42:32.:42:35.

in no way are you any closer to getting more pay as a result.

:42:36.:42:38.

That's how strongly our members feel, that they are

:42:39.:42:47.

It's how strongly some of them feel, isn't it?

:42:48.:42:52.

Because your strike mandate was two years ago and, in fact,

:42:53.:42:54.

In fact, when we balloted two years ago, we got 40% responding

:42:55.:43:03.

and that is significantly more than the Government's mandate

:43:04.:43:05.

It is significantly more th`n the ballots for the Mayor of London

:43:06.:43:18.

and the Police Commission, so we think it is quite accdptable.

:43:19.:43:21.

The Prime Minister is saying they are considering for the legislation

:43:22.:43:43.

`` further legislation, so it may be impossible to hold a strike unless

:43:44.:43:46.

In a way, you are in a worse position.

:43:47.:43:50.

I think it would be very difficult for the Government to bring that in.

:43:51.:43:54.

I think the working people of this country know that

:43:55.:43:56.

the only power they have is that when they are so frustrated they are

:43:57.:43:59.

If that legislation comes in for trade union ballots,

:44:00.:44:03.

surely it has to come in for other ballots as well.

:44:04.:44:06.

Andrew Bingham, how much more pay do you want public

:44:07.:44:08.

It's a question of what is affordable.

:44:09.:44:12.

We inherited a dreadful financial situathon

:44:13.:44:13.

and we have to cut, we can't afford to keep giving big pay rises.

:44:14.:44:17.

I looked at the strikes and what struck me, and I come from `

:44:18.:44:20.

background in the private sector and I've had to go a month with no pay

:44:21.:44:24.

sometimes, I look at people who have had to make childcare arrangements

:44:25.:44:27.

and take the day off themselves because teachers have

:44:28.:44:29.

Yet these people are having to make childcare arrangements for people

:44:30.:44:37.

The reality is that, since you guys came into Government,

:44:38.:44:45.

public pay, taking inflation into account, is down by 9%, and you're

:44:46.:44:52.

No, what I'm saying is that we can only afford to pay what we've got.

:44:53.:45:00.

Tax`free threshold has risen, so people can take more

:45:01.:45:05.

I'm sorry to be harsh about it but the Government inherited

:45:06.:45:13.

a huge deficit and it has to be brought under control.

:45:14.:45:18.

It might be better if your economic plans were on target.

:45:19.:45:22.

You said you were going to balance books by the end of this Parliament.

:45:23.:45:26.

That hasn't happened so public sector workers are going to have

:45:27.:45:28.

Many private`sector workers in my constituency have had waged

:45:29.:45:43.

To come back to another point, if we get everyone 5% or 6%,

:45:44.:45:48.

I think people would have more sympathy for what Andrew is saying

:45:49.:46:11.

if the Government hadn't looked after some of the wealthiest people

:46:12.:46:14.

society by giving a tax cut to the people earning over ?150,000 a year.

:46:15.:46:17.

Not just 9%, some have seen their paid for

:46:18.:46:20.

by 15% or more, especially with the changes in pension arrangemdnts

:46:21.:46:23.

Public sector workers think they have been under attack and not

:46:24.:46:26.

Teachers tell me that their working day has becomd longer

:46:27.:46:33.

and longer in the last four years because of the changes.

:46:34.:46:37.

I think it is very understandable why people go on strike

:46:38.:46:46.

when they feel they have no other choice and the Government will not

:46:47.:46:49.

There are changes constantlx going on so I think it is

:46:50.:46:54.

entirely understandable people choose to go on strike.

:46:55.:46:56.

I actually think the people on strike don't want to be

:46:57.:47:11.

The only people who want to see strikes are the Government because

:47:12.:47:16.

they think it puts hard`working people in the public sector...

:47:17.:47:18.

Ed Miliband has said nobody wants to see strikes,

:47:19.:47:31.

He quite clearly said that nobody wants to see strikes,

:47:32.:47:40.

but what is important is that we understand why they are happening.

:47:41.:47:43.

They are happening because people feel they have no choice

:47:44.:47:53.

Avis, would you be better off under Labour?

:47:54.:47:57.

We would like to see which of the Government is in powdr

:47:58.:47:59.

talking to us on a reasonable level and listening to the people.

:48:00.:48:07.

Where public sector workers are in the position where the lowest paid

:48:08.:48:10.

are having to go to food banks and the salary isn't reaching n`tional

:48:11.:48:18.

18 year`old Saffiyah wants to study medicine at university, inctrring

:48:19.:49:01.

With family unable to find the fees, she's resigned to being charged

:49:02.:49:09.

It's agains Sharia law, interest and stuff.

:49:10.:50:33.

If there was another option, I would have taken it.

:50:34.:50:39.

Yusuf hopes to study philosophy and economics

:50:40.:50:40.

He thinks pragmatism must whn over dogma if young Muslims are to get

:50:41.:50:45.

I come from a family of practicing Muslims, but it?s something we had

:50:46.:50:52.

to think twice about, purelx because the need for education is equally as

:50:53.:50:56.

important if not more important than following something that might be

:50:57.:51:00.

dogmatic or constraining to our education. Sharia law tdaches

:51:01.:51:05.

that interest makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.

:51:06.:51:08.

The Government is considering a loan system that would solve

:51:09.:51:13.

the conflict between Sharia law and the current student loan system

:51:14.:51:17.

But according to one Islamic finance expert, the solution is simple.

:51:18.:51:20.

The Government, they should be looking to the future

:51:21.:51:26.

of a society who are educated and they are willing to pay for it.

:51:27.:51:32.

That could be done by just giving simple interest`free loans,

:51:33.:51:35.

Until a solution is agreed, many practicing Muslim teenagers face

:51:36.:51:40.

And I spoke to Professor Mohammed Abdel`Haq,

:51:41.:51:47.

an expert in Islamic Finance at the University of Bolton and I

:51:48.:51:49.

There is nothing against Islamic finance. I don't think Islalic

:51:50.:52:07.

finance would be an alternative. finance. I don't think Islamic

:52:08.:52:09.

finance would be an alternative I finance would be an alternative. I

:52:10.:52:12.

think it would be part of the offering. If you want a conventional

:52:13.:52:18.

loan, you should take it. If you feel the only barrier betwedn

:52:19.:52:19.

loan, you should take it. If you feel the only barrier between you

:52:20.:52:19.

feel the only barrier betwedn you and further education at University

:52:20.:52:23.

is that you don't have an Islamic loan, I think, why not? There are

:52:24.:52:30.

two ways of looking at it. One is that it is good for integration

:52:31.:52:32.

because it allows more Muslhms to go because it allows more Muslhms to go

:52:33.:52:37.

to university. The other is that it promotes separatism because you're

:52:38.:52:44.

creating two systems. I don't want to support two different systems.

:52:45.:52:50.

Given what we are witnessing and facing the challenges of Islamic

:52:51.:52:54.

extremism, I think this is one of the good ways. To integrate the

:52:55.:53:02.

Islamic finance for Islamic youngsters. If you want to further

:53:03.:53:12.

your education through an Islamic loan, yes, we have nothing against

:53:13.:53:16.

loan, yes, we have nothing `gainst Islam because if we don't do this,

:53:17.:53:19.

guess what? Someone else might provide it. Where we are telling

:53:20.:53:24.

them to come and study and hn provide it. Where we are telling

:53:25.:53:26.

them to come and study and in return we want you to be a good citizen,

:53:27.:53:33.

someone else might provide this and make promote them going to Syria. As

:53:34.:53:39.

as long we don't compromise on our values, I don't think we should be

:53:40.:53:43.

worried. Andrew, what do you think worried. Andrew, what do yot think

:53:44.:53:52.

of this idea. I don't want anyone to of this idea. I don't want `nyone to

:53:53.:53:58.

be excluded from university for their faith. If they met it can be

:53:59.:54:01.

found to comply with sharia law, I found to comply with sharia law, I

:54:02.:54:07.

would support it. It is there as an option for people who feel they have

:54:08.:54:09.

to go that way. It doesn't impose option for people who feel they have

:54:10.:54:12.

to go that way. It doesn't hmpose it to go that way. It doesn't hmpose it

:54:13.:54:15.

on other students, they just broadens choice, so I'm find with

:54:16.:54:21.

it. I agree. I think we need to find more ways of encouraging yotng

:54:22.:54:23.

more ways of encouraging young people to go to further education

:54:24.:54:25.

which have seen fees go frol ?3 00 which have seen fees go from ?3000

:54:26.:54:31.

to ?9,000. It has become incredibly difficult for young people,

:54:32.:54:36.

particularly from poorer backgrounds and working`class backgrounds, to

:54:37.:54:42.

get into higher education. So a scheme like this has to be a

:54:43.:54:43.

get into higher education. So a scheme like this has to be ` good

:54:44.:54:48.

thing. Is there a danger of us moving towards a world of greater

:54:49.:54:51.

separatism were Muslims have to go through a different type of loan? We

:54:52.:54:55.

are only talking about the need to go to university and there are

:54:56.:54:58.

are only talking about the need to go to university and there `re loads

:54:59.:54:59.

go to university and there are loads of Muslims who just get on with it.

:55:00.:55:04.

It depends on each individual It depends on each individual

:55:05.:55:09.

person, whatever their faces. I think it would be very easy to turn

:55:10.:55:11.

the argument into separatism, but I the argument into separatisl, but I

:55:12.:55:15.

don't think it does, I think it is just a different option for

:55:16.:55:16.

different people. There havd always different people. There have always

:55:17.:55:23.

been various things on the market. You can get energy from companies

:55:24.:55:24.

that operate certain policids, this that operate certain policids, this

:55:25.:55:30.

is just like that. Professor Abdul Hakim ancient integration.

:55:31.:55:34.

and it emerged this week th`t twin sisters from Manchester may have

:55:35.:55:37.

Counter terrorism officers say they're concerned about the safety

:55:38.:55:41.

of Salma and Zahra Hullarnie but also believe they could pose

:55:42.:55:44.

One organisation that works with Muslim women says they

:55:45.:55:47.

Maybe their brothers encouraged them, I don?t know.

:55:48.:55:51.

But the term I would use is religious grooming.

:55:52.:56:01.

Bill, how concerned should we be about security implications? I think

:56:02.:56:08.

that if the story is true, it is that if the story is true, it is

:56:09.:56:12.

extremely worrying. I am worried about what is happening to young

:56:13.:56:13.

people. When we have childrdn who people. When we have children who

:56:14.:56:18.

are ending up going to a war zone, it is something we should bd

:56:19.:56:21.

extremely worried about and something that we all have a

:56:22.:56:22.

responsibility to do somethhng responsibility to do somethhng

:56:23.:56:26.

about. We should be putting resources into schools and colleges

:56:27.:56:30.

to make sure that children are to make sure that children `re

:56:31.:56:39.

supported. To stop radicalisation? Yes. I think it is something that

:56:40.:56:43.

has to be handled a very sensitive way. Coverage and some popular

:56:44.:56:53.

newspapers hasn't helped. Is it worrying that people who are brought

:56:54.:56:57.

up in mainstream education here in Manchester suddenly feel thd

:56:58.:56:58.

up in mainstream education here in Manchester suddenly feel the need to

:56:59.:56:58.

Manchester suddenly feel thd need to go to a foreign country and start

:56:59.:57:07.

fighting? It's very worrying. We all remember being young and

:57:08.:57:11.

impressionable and you might adopt your own political ethos at school

:57:12.:57:14.

or later, and I think there is a real danger that this vulnerability

:57:15.:57:18.

can be exploited by different groups. There is no sign so far that

:57:19.:57:24.

there has been a huge amount of success in preventing it. It's how

:57:25.:57:33.

do you prevent it. What mothvates people? Is it a belief or a lack of

:57:34.:57:42.

belief? I don't know. I think you have to find the cause to deal

:57:43.:57:43.

belief? I don't know. I think you have to find the cause to ddal with

:57:44.:57:43.

have to find the cause to deal with it.

:57:44.:57:45.

Let's have a look at the rest of the week's news now.

:57:46.:57:48.

Here's Stuart Pollitt with 60 Seconds.

:57:49.:57:49.

Rochdale Council suspended its inquiry into a possible covdr`up up

:57:50.:57:52.

of abuse at Knowl View residential school after Greater Manchester

:57:53.:57:54.

Police said it had enough evidence for a criminal investigation.

:57:55.:57:59.

The North West was promised ?1 billion pounds

:58:00.:58:01.

in the latest round of Government Growth Fund investment.

:58:02.:58:04.

Labour says London's still getting too much.

:58:05.:58:12.

This is a continuing problel and it is vitally important to correct the

:58:13.:58:19.

balance. Greater Manchester's health service

:58:20.:58:22.

is preparing A public consultation got underway

:58:23.:58:23.

into plans for as many Critics say it will cost too much

:58:24.:58:27.

and others will have to close. Backing for fracking `

:58:28.:58:31.

Blackpool hoteliers came out in support of drilling

:58:32.:58:33.

for shale gas on the Fylde coast. Opponents say it damages

:58:34.:58:36.

the environment And open Government `

:58:37.:58:37.

the Manx Parliament was held outside for the annual national celdbration

:58:38.:58:44.

of Tynwald Day. As we head into the summer recess,

:58:45.:59:04.

where do they stand in terms of political parties? How confident

:59:05.:59:07.

where do they stand in terms of political parties? How confhdent are

:59:08.:59:08.

political parties? How confident are you that Labour is on the rhght path

:59:09.:59:10.

you that Labour is on the right path for a factory next year? I think

:59:11.:59:15.

Labour has the right offer for the electorate next year. We have

:59:16.:59:20.

National policy Forum announcements next weekend with the conference in

:59:21.:59:26.

autumn. We already have some strong policies including the energy price

:59:27.:59:34.

freeze changes, national investment and the support for small

:59:35.:59:38.

businesses. Ed Miliband is the leader with those policies and

:59:39.:59:39.

businesses. Ed Miliband is the leader with those policies `nd I

:59:40.:59:41.

think he is the one who will put them into practice. They ard his

:59:42.:59:44.

policies, that's the important policies, that's the import`nt

:59:45.:59:49.

point. We were a consistent lead in the opinion polls. Andrew? The

:59:50.:59:57.

economy is on the up. There is growth and people can see that. It

:59:58.:00:02.

is beginning to filter into people's pockets, slowly. We

:00:03.:00:04.

is beginning to filter into people's pockets, slowly. Wd had a

:00:05.:00:05.

people's pockets, slowly. We had a dreadful inheritance. Do yot think

:00:06.:00:10.

you are in a better place than Labour? I think so because the

:00:11.:00:15.

economy is moving in the right direction. It has been tough and

:00:16.:00:22.

people have understood that. My constituents aren't seeing that

:00:23.:00:28.

improvement. Most of my constituents have not seen any improvement.

:00:29.:00:31.

Just time to thanks my guests, Bill Esterson and Andrew Bingham.

:00:32.:00:34.

Now I'll hand you back to Andrew Neil in London.

:00:35.:00:35.

will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.

:00:36.:00:48.

So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including

:00:49.:00:50.

a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and

:00:51.:00:53.

Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make

:00:54.:01:14.

a difference? It will make a difference because we have

:01:15.:01:20.

established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and

:01:21.:01:26.

why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent

:01:27.:01:33.

and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed

:01:34.:01:36.

this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed

:01:37.:01:48.

through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international

:01:49.:01:54.

examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon

:01:55.:01:59.

passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of

:02:00.:02:05.

control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled

:02:06.:02:07.

down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for

:02:08.:02:16.

this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a

:02:17.:02:20.

principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,

:02:21.:02:24.

which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous

:02:25.:02:27.

relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a

:02:28.:02:31.

controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is

:02:32.:02:37.

on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church

:02:38.:02:40.

against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is

:02:41.:02:48.

stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who

:02:49.:02:54.

can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who

:02:55.:02:59.

can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is

:03:00.:03:03.

potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of

:03:04.:03:07.

Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of

:03:08.:03:11.

England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please

:03:12.:03:18.

withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court

:03:19.:03:23.

kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of

:03:24.:03:28.

three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that

:03:29.:03:34.

banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,

:03:35.:03:38.

but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to

:03:39.:03:47.

decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In

:03:48.:03:52.

record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson

:03:53.:04:01.

and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the

:04:02.:04:05.

establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great

:04:06.:04:13.

quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act

:04:14.:04:17.

and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to

:04:18.:04:24.

look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.

:04:25.:04:27.

There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about

:04:28.:04:32.

drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look

:04:33.:04:35.

something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is

:04:36.:04:42.

right or is the political establishment right? I think the

:04:43.:04:51.

establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We

:04:52.:04:57.

are in a unique position where all three political parties have

:04:58.:04:59.

relatively recent experience of government so they now that security

:05:00.:05:04.

threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation

:05:05.:05:11.

being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I

:05:12.:05:17.

do not see the political controversy. All three political

:05:18.:05:23.

parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always

:05:24.:05:31.

are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but

:05:32.:05:35.

a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political

:05:36.:05:42.

controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy

:05:43.:05:48.

about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,

:05:49.:05:55.

it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys

:05:56.:06:03.

setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have

:06:04.:06:07.

serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out

:06:08.:06:14.

in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have

:06:15.:06:20.

said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public

:06:21.:06:22.

school. For many English football fans,

:06:23.:06:25.

tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick

:06:26.:06:28.

between two traditional foes Well, if you're

:06:29.:06:31.

a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the

:06:32.:06:34.

nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced

:06:35.:06:37.

a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,

:06:38.:06:52.

it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing

:06:53.:06:57.

and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group

:06:58.:07:01.

with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.

:07:02.:07:07.

There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over

:07:08.:07:10.

authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it

:07:11.:07:13.

through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the

:07:14.:07:23.

worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The

:07:24.:07:26.

left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and

:07:27.:07:31.

authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives

:07:32.:07:36.

remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the

:07:37.:07:45.

semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking

:07:46.:07:51.

on Catholics South America. With one victory apiece, Germany knocking out

:07:52.:07:56.

Brazil and Argentina beating the Dutch, tonight's final repeats that

:07:57.:08:01.

pattern. Who will win? Angela Merkel's Germany or Argentina?

:08:02.:08:11.

We're joined now by Britain's only Labour adviser

:08:12.:08:13.

Should we read political significance in to the fact that the

:08:14.:08:27.

only time England has won the World Cup was under a Labour government?

:08:28.:08:32.

Of course. The problem is we did not qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a

:08:33.:08:38.

Labour government. We have had some pretty shoddy results under a Labour

:08:39.:08:43.

government. As someone under the left, are you backing Argentina?

:08:44.:08:48.

Absolutely not. I do not think it has anything to do with politics. It

:08:49.:08:53.

is a bit of fun. People should choose it is Don Hoop plays the best

:08:54.:09:01.

football and the Germans have been fantastic. They were great in 2010

:09:02.:09:04.

fantastic. They were great in 2 10 as well. They started this model in

:09:05.:09:09.

2008 and that is the sort of thing people should be supporting. Who

:09:10.:09:15.

should a Eurosceptic support? I would not say Argentina because that

:09:16.:09:20.

is the country that has tried to seize British sovereign territory

:09:21.:09:25.

within my lifetime. You were not around for the Blitz. Believe it or

:09:26.:09:31.

not, I was not. There is a strong political case to support Germany.

:09:32.:09:35.

They are probably going to win the World Cup with a clear of -- with

:09:36.:09:48.

players of Polish origin. That sort of cultural change they have forced

:09:49.:09:52.

themselves to go through... You talk about them being right wing, but in

:09:53.:09:59.

fact the way that the German league is structured, and I am an expert,

:10:00.:10:07.

is based on ownership. It is very different from the Premier League.

:10:08.:10:11.

It is about football as a usual good. The ticket prices are lower.

:10:12.:10:19.

The fans are involved in running the club. It is a model that all English

:10:20.:10:26.

football clubs should emulate. Germany had a strong football team

:10:27.:10:32.

under centre right governments and centre left governments and a

:10:33.:10:39.

coalition. A strong football team and a strong economy.

:10:40.:10:46.

coalition. A strong football team Conservative MP who is the

:10:47.:10:57.

coalition. A strong football team was outraged and said you should not

:10:58.:11:01.

do that, so he could happily support Germany. What was interesting about

:11:02.:11:07.

the authoritarian and democratic regimes, what is great is that the

:11:08.:11:12.

World Cup is run by this open and democratic organisation Fifa. It is

:11:13.:11:24.

similar to the EU in many regards. Two countries led by women. Maybe

:11:25.:11:27.

gender is the thing. We did not Two countries led by women. Maybe

:11:28.:13:00.

watching? Absolutely. Thank you This is the last Sunday Politics

:13:01.:13:03.

for the summer. But we'll be back in early autumn

:13:04.:13:08.

and our first programme will be live from Scotland,

:13:09.:13:11.

the weekend before the referendum The Daily Politics is back tomorrow

:13:12.:13:17.

at noon and we'll bring you the last PMQs before the summer

:13:18.:13:22.

on Wednesday morning from 11:30am. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:13:23.:13:25.

it's the Sunday Politics, unless

:13:26.:13:28.

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