02/10/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


02/10/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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This programme contains some flashing images.

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We're live from sunny Birmingham on day one of

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the Conservative Party Conference, where, three months after Britain

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voted to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister has given

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us her first inkling of how she plans to do it.

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Morning, folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May says she will trigger Article 50, starting the two year

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process of negotiations that will culminate in Britain

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leaving the EU, before the end of March next year.

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So Brexit by Easter 2019 - but what kind of relationship

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A Great Repeal Bill will also be voted on next Spring,

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but won't be enacted until we leave, at which point EU laws will be

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And coming up here, an agreement to resolve a bitterly

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disputed parade is hailed as a watershed moment.

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Jeffrey Donaldson of the DUP and Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly

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will join me in studio with their thoughts.

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will join me in studio defined by the conservatism of the

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Notting Hill set, what now? We explore the potential rise of Sidcup

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So far no Great Repeal Act to get rid of the Sunday Politics Panel -

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Steve Richards, Rachel Sylvester and Tom Newton Dunn.

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It's 100 days since we voted to leave the EU and the clamour has

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grown for the Government to tell us what Brexit would look like.

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This morning, as the Tory faithful gather in Birmingham,

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we still don't expect to be told what Brexit means but we do know

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more about the timetable and the extrication process.

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A Bill will go before parliament this spring to repeal the 1972

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European Communities Act, which legalised our membership

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But it won't actually come into force until we leave.

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Theresa May also told the Andrew Marr Show that

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Article 50 would be invoked by March of next year -

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starting the two year process of renegotiation before we leave.

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I have been saying we would not trigger it before the end of this

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year, so that we get confirmation in place. I will be saying in my speech

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today that we will trigger before the end of March next year. The

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remaining members of the EU have to decide what the process of

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negotiation is. I hope, and I will be saying to them, that now they

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know what the time is going to be, it is not an exact date, but they

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know it will be the first quarter of next year, that we will be able to

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have some preparatory work so that once the trigger comes we have a

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smoother process of negotiation. Theresa May, on this channel, just

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over an hour ago. What do you make of it? Saggy as you said, we know

:03:24.:03:27.

more about when but we don't know what Brexit is going to be. We don't

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know how the relationship will work out, we don't know what the Prime

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Minister's negotiation position will be, we haven't worked out anything

:03:38.:03:40.

about the free market access and freedom of movement. All of the

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substance. It is a significant announcement but we don't actually

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know anything really big about what our lives are going to be like in

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future. Is there a risk from the Prime Minister? Is there a risk

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putting this before Parliament to repeal the 1972 Communities Act?

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Undoubtedly. Anything you put before the House of Commons or the House of

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Lords, where there is no Tory majority, let alone a Brexit

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majority, risks getting amended. She runs the risk. There is also a risk

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of not saying this, not having the greater appeal, which is actually a

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great repeal act, when is being repealed, but she needed to throw

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the Tory right red meat, and they got it this morning. There is always

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the potential of a constitutional crisis. If the Lords were to dig in

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over this, or even digging over Article 50, demand a vote on that,

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lawyers are arguing whether you need it or not, it may not be plain

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sailing when you have a majority of 12? It definitely isn't going to be

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with a majority of 12. The scope for constitutional crisis is many.

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Clashes with the Lords, clashes with the Commons, Scotland is still there

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in the background allows a significant factor. It will always

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be there, but perhaps in a different context. I don't think this will be

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the trigger for a constitutional crisis. You have to admire the

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elegant choreography. I was told ages ago that she knew she could not

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keep carry on saying Brexit means Brexit, there will have to be new

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lines. This is beautiful. We kind of knew that Article 50 was going to be

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triggered early in next year. David Davis even said that. It was a fair

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bet it would be before Easter. They couldn't spend the next two years

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negotiating Brexit and refocusing the entire legislative programme to

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spend the next two years rejigging the mountain of legislation we are

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affected with. They have turned a logistical, unavoidable

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inevitability into a sense of momentum this weekend. Very clever

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presentation. There are going to be huge crises to come over this.

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Picking off the 1972 Act, putting it all into British law and

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legislation, rather than dependent on Europe, that is what the

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Brexiteers wanted. To that extent, she has thrown them a bit of red

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meat today? Yes, but we still don't know what Brexit is going to be. But

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a bit of red meat keeps you going for a while. Maybe get them through

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to lunch time. Today or tomorrow? Really just today. The tactic is to

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get some stuff about Brexit out, get them talking about that and then

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move onto agenda she wants, domestic. What do you think? Good

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luck with that! Are you reading my script coming up? It was on the

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autocue, I'm sorry! Clearly, she is accessed about not making his

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premiership all about Brexit. It will be, but she is desperate. She

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needs to define herself away from Brexit, who is Theresa May, what did

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she really believe? We have heard whispers, but the next few days as a

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chance to do that. The fringe, Liam Fox is talking at two fringes. Two

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opportunities for a story. David Davis as well. These two men of

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great talent and potentially great ego, they will not be able to stop

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themselves having feelings heard. And Boris. Boris who? I have not

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seen him on the fringes. Fringe meetings have been quite dull at

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party conferences recently. Because of this issue, I think people are

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going to pack them out. That is where words might be said, explosive

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words. We live for fringe meetings! The PM hopes her announcement

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will deal with Brexit on day one so the conference can get on to talk

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about other matters. But as you can see from this not

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so slim tome - the conference guide- there are plenty of other issues

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to talk, maybe even argue about. Our Ellie caught up with two Tory

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MPs from different sides of the party before they set off,

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to see what they think lies in store # Just can't wait to

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get on the road again # The life I love is making

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music with my friends # And I can't wait to get

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on the road again...# Do you actually enjoy going

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to conference? It's not as much fun

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as when you're not an MP, because now people want to talk

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to you and everybody But do you make contacts,

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do you network? Do think Theresa May gets

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nervous about conference, I think if you are performing

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on a big stage, whoever you are, you ought to have a few

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nerves jangling around. But she's a polished performer,

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I'm sure she'll know Theresa May will also know she has

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several contentious issues she needs It is perhaps not surprising,

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then, that day one of We're pretty well balanced

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between those of us like myself, representing constituencies

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with really high levels of research, science

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and agriculture, who will be very keen, but probably pragmatically

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understanding that we are not going to hear everything

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tomorrow, and the rest of the party who are just

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desperate for information. If they don't think the deal

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is going in the right way, they will want to say

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something about it. I think the time frame

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is pretty clear. We are going to trigger Article 50

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at some point relatively That means we will get

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the negotiations done a good year The rest is going to be

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important meat on the bones. But, in terms of the core strategy,

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Theresa May goes into this So, a unified front,

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albeit perhaps fragile. But then there is the question

:10:00.:10:03.

of grammar schools. Depends whether we hear

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more about it. You know, the concept

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in its one-dimensional sense, you can't have a problem

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with that, can you? Giving parents choice,

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giving bright children the chance But, for me, for many of us,

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it has to be a package Our teachers are pretty

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stressed and overworked I'm not actually sure

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this is the right time. I would rather see emphasis

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being put on fairer funding. Constituencies like mine have been

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underfunded for decades. If you go into politics

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and government scared of your own shadow, unprepared to do

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anything bold or brave, I think there is no risk-free

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option. Of course, people have different

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views on grammar schools and it is a totemic political

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issue as well. But I think if you read the green

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paper, the Prime Minister has set out a very sensible,

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carefully calibrated approach, not just to grammar

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schools but the wider The new PM also faces big strategic

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decisions on expensive projects like airport expansion,

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an area even her Cabinet With all these big infrastructure

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projects, HS2, Heathrow, issues around fracking,

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nuclear as well, I think we have got to take the right decisions

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for the country, make sure Britain Each one of those is

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thorny in its own right. But what I think is most important

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is we look at it very carefully, That is where we all start to see

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the metal in Theresa, Whilst on the one hand,

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having a Prime Minister - nobody could have been more

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delighted than me that we managed to cut the tax credits changes -

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but having a Prime Minister that sticks to her guns,

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I'm not for U-turning, How confident are you,

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going to this conference, that it is all going to be sorted

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and you are going to be Well, people predicted an economic

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nosedive after the referendum. People said there would

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be political chaos. Actually, the economy

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has proved resilient. I think there is a sense of resolve

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on all sides of the party on all of these different issues

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to get behind this Prime Minister Last year, you got into a bit

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of trouble, being quite vocal Some suggestion you weren't

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a proper conservative. I think I am absolutely

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a proper conservative. I think my party needed reminding

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what conservative was. Our job is to help people who need

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a leg up. Her opening speech in Downing Street

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told me she absolutely is. Like all of these things,

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we will hear more about this week. # And I can't wait to get on the

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road again. # And we're joined now

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by the Transport Secretary, who was a leading Leave campaigner,

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Chris Grayling. Welcome back to the programme. The

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great repeal act, what exactly does it repeal? It repeal the 1972

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European Communities Act. It means the European Court of Justice no

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longer has sway in the United Kingdom. It means the European

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Commission and Parliament no longer make laws for us. As of today, in

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our system, European law is supreme over UK law, and it repeal that.

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Except what it does is it consolidates all existing European

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legislation into British law. It would be more accurate to call it

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the great Consolidation act? Is This is what I argued for during the

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League campaign. The remaining campaign said you could not do it,

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it will take years, it will be a disaster. My response then is what

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it is now, the best way to do it is to consolidate existing legislation,

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much of which we will want to keep, the environmental measures, the

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workers' rights measures, what we want to do is to make sure we can

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get certainty before the event and after the event, for workers,

:13:58.:14:00.

businesses, but what the legal position will be. Over time, we have

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the freedom, outside the European Union, free from the control of the

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European Court, to change our legal system in the way that we want. It

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does mean we would leave the EU with all of this EU law still part of

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British law. Now, what would you wish to change in the aftermath?

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There is a whole variety of different things we will be looking

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at a change. For example, if you want a practical one, it is unlikely

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that after we have left the European Union we will still be paying child

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benefits to children that have never even entered the United Kingdom.

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That is the kind of thing we will be free to change after we have left.

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What else? Much of it we will want to keep, environmental measures, not

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all that has been done in the European Union for 40 years has been

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bad for Britain. How long will it take to pick all of this after we

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leave? Will be down to the Government to decide... Ten years?

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20 years? It will take it as long as we choose. What is right and proper

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is that on the day after there is a degree of certainty for businesses.

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It would not be fair for a company to be operating under a set of

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rules, for there to be a cliff edge where they do not know what is going

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to happen the day after. Let's make it an evolution, not a revolution. A

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lot of the things you have to agree to enter negotiations mean it will

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have to remain law even after we leave? This clearly the case that if

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a business in this country is continuing to sell a product in the

:15:31.:15:33.

European Union, it will have to make the standards of the European Union.

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Those rules will apply. That is the same if we're selling to the United

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States, the rules of the United States would apply to a business

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planning to sell a product there. What happens if you lose the vote?

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It is inconceivable that Parliament can look at the view of the British

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public and ignore it. Parliament voted overwhelmingly for the

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referendum to take place in the first place, the people have given a

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mandate and I am certain Parliament will fulfil it.

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What would happen? You have a majority of only 12 and there was a

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majority for remain in the Commons and there is a large majority in the

:16:15.:16:20.

house of lords. If the parliament does not seamlessly agree for what

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you call the great repeal act, what would happen? Both houses are full

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of Democrats and they will respect the will of the people. But we could

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be faced with a constitutional crisis? We have taken the decision

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to leave and parliament voted for the referendum and it is

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inconceivable that Parliament would not allow that process to go

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forward. If the inconceivable happen, you'd have to cores and --

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call an election. Inconceivable is a bit of a stretch. Plenty of voices,

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particularly in the House of Lords, would use this as a an opportunity

:17:09.:17:20.

to thwart you. And I don't think the House of Lords will turn around and

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say we should not fulfil that. There may be dissenting voices but they

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will view it as a democratic mandate that we have to fulfil. Has your

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party don soundings in the Commons to make sure you can get this

:17:34.:17:39.

through? I've not been involved in that discussion but parliament will

:17:40.:17:43.

respond to the will of the people. That's the way this country works.

:17:44.:17:48.

That's what you hope. We shall see how it works. We've been told by the

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Prime Minister this morning that article 50 will be triggered by the

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end of March. That means that we are out by Easter 2019. Can you confirm

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that those British members of the European Parliament currently in

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Strasberg, there will be no more for them after this. If we have left by

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the end of the two-year period. It is technically possible to extend

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it. After that period, there wouldn't be EP is after that point

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in 2019. -- MEPs. For Brexit to mean Brexit, the famous phrase, which is

:18:39.:18:47.

basically tautology. It would mean the freedom to have our own trade

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laws. It would mean the ability to do that? You are leading me to

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answer questions about the specific legal structures. It means our own

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free-trade deals? Correct. It would mean we are no longer subject to the

:19:11.:19:16.

rules of the European Court of Justice. Also correct. And we would

:19:17.:19:27.

have whatever control we desire over immigration? The Prime Minister has

:19:28.:19:31.

been clear that we need to control the flow of immigration into the

:19:32.:19:36.

country. Any of these counts as out from being a member of the single

:19:37.:19:41.

market. So can we agree that there is no way we can remain a member of

:19:42.:19:48.

the single market? There is no such thing as a member of the single

:19:49.:19:52.

market. There are a number of different trading agreements within

:19:53.:19:57.

the EU. We are effectively a member of the single market now but we

:19:58.:20:00.

can't be after this. The question you have asked me, do we want to be

:20:01.:20:07.

Norway, Switzerland, Canada when it comes to trading arrangements? We

:20:08.:20:13.

want to be the United Kingdom. We are the biggest customer of German

:20:14.:20:17.

car-makers, French farmers... I don't want to have the referendum

:20:18.:20:25.

fight again. It seems as black as black or as White is white that if

:20:26.:20:30.

you want all of that we cannot be a member, we can have access on terms

:20:31.:20:35.

yet to be agreed, we will have a relationship, but why cannot you say

:20:36.:20:40.

that we won't be a member in the way that we are currently a member of

:20:41.:20:44.

the single market? We won't be a member of the European Union but

:20:45.:20:50.

there is no such thing as a member of the single market. There is no

:20:51.:20:55.

single market in services, for example. There is but it is not as

:20:56.:21:01.

developed as goods. I believe we will end up with a trading

:21:02.:21:04.

partnership with the European Union on terms to be agreed that will work

:21:05.:21:09.

for both of us. Access but not membership. You cannot be a fully

:21:10.:21:15.

paid-up member of the single market without the European Court of

:21:16.:21:19.

Justice ruling on it and you don't want that. I don't understand your

:21:20.:21:29.

problem. Your pre-merging -- prejudging the outcome of

:21:30.:21:33.

negotiations. We want the best possible trading arrangements with

:21:34.:21:36.

European neighbours and that is what we will work towards. Where

:21:37.:21:41.

different to the other countries that have been involved in these

:21:42.:21:44.

negotiations before. We have heard all that before in the referendum

:21:45.:21:48.

and we wanted some clarity on what it would mean. Transport, when will

:21:49.:21:55.

you give is the decision on runway expansion? I'm not going to set a

:21:56.:21:59.

date today. I've spent the summer looking at the three different

:22:00.:22:03.

options. We have three very well presented packages. The airport

:22:04.:22:06.

commission has looked at it carefully and the Prime Minister and

:22:07.:22:11.

I want to understand the options in detail and understand the strengths

:22:12.:22:14.

and weaknesses of each and we will reach our decision shortly. I'm not

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going to set a date on it. Shortly means in this year, surely. I don't

:22:22.:22:28.

want to wait unnecessarily long to take the decision but nor do I want

:22:29.:22:33.

to set a date so to to work towards that. Will there be a free vote? I

:22:34.:22:40.

need to identify the best option for Britain and take the best possible

:22:41.:22:44.

approach to get the support of parliament Porritt. Will there be a

:22:45.:22:52.

free vote? Decisions have not been taken but we will do the best for

:22:53.:22:58.

the interests of the country. Theresa May has said the options for

:22:59.:23:04.

an expansion to Heathrow are seriously flawed. Philip Hammond has

:23:05.:23:13.

described the Heathrow option as dead as a Norwegian parrot. Can you

:23:14.:23:16.

be sure that the Prime Minister and Anna Chancellor will vote for your

:23:17.:23:21.

proposal? We are looking at three options that are very new. One of

:23:22.:23:32.

them is Heathrow. Warrant -- they are very different options to what

:23:33.:23:36.

has been proposed in the past. They are all very well crafted proposals.

:23:37.:23:41.

They are interesting and have potential and we need to decide.

:23:42.:23:50.

That is why I am asking you. HS2, high-speed train, can you state

:23:51.:23:56.

categorically it will go ahead? It's due to start construction in the

:23:57.:24:00.

spring. The hybrids Bill Haas to continue its passage through the

:24:01.:24:09.

house of law -- the hybrid Bill Haas to continue through its passage in

:24:10.:24:22.

the house of lords. Will it be 2026? Will it be on-time and on budget?

:24:23.:24:29.

The select committee of MPs said it is unlikely and will certainly be

:24:30.:24:33.

over budget. I expected be absolutely clear and on -- expected

:24:34.:24:45.

to be absolutely on-time and on budget. The latest estimate for

:24:46.:24:51.

phase one, the core cast is ?14 billion but there is contingency on

:24:52.:24:58.

top of that. How much? It is set to Treasury rules. It is always going

:24:59.:25:06.

to be over. If you really believed in the Northern powerhouse wouldn't

:25:07.:25:11.

this money be better spent instead of making it quicker to come to and

:25:12.:25:18.

Birmingham from London in under 90 minutes, which you already can,

:25:19.:25:23.

wouldn't it be better to spend the money on state of the art road links

:25:24.:25:35.

between East and West in the north. I think we need to do both. We can't

:25:36.:25:43.

get more freight onto rail without creating more space. By taking fast

:25:44.:25:51.

trains off the West Coast main line which is already busy and put fast

:25:52.:25:56.

freight trains onto the new route, you create more capacity for places

:25:57.:26:01.

like Milton Keynes Dons Northampton, Coventry. It is about making sure we

:26:02.:26:06.

have a transport system that can cope with the demands of the

:26:07.:26:09.

21st-century. Thank you very much. Now, as we speak, voters in Hungary

:26:10.:26:12.

are going to the polls to vote on whether to accept mandatory EU

:26:13.:26:16.

quotas for relocating migrants. The country's government has been

:26:17.:26:18.

campaigning for voters to reject the EU's proposals and has run

:26:19.:26:21.

a highly controversial campaign, accusing migrants of terrorism

:26:22.:26:23.

and crime - and the Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said today he'll

:26:24.:26:26.

quit if the country votes In response to the ongoing migrant

:26:27.:26:28.

crisis, the EU wants to establish a permanent European resettlement

:26:29.:26:33.

programme, under which, member states must take their fair

:26:34.:26:35.

share of asylum seekers, depending on the size of each

:26:36.:26:37.

country's population and economy. If countries refuse,

:26:38.:26:41.

the European Commission has proposed that they would incur a financial

:26:42.:26:44.

penalty of 250,000 euros per person, to cover the cost of another

:26:45.:26:48.

country taking them. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter

:26:49.:26:53.

Szijjarto said the plan Last year, Hungary rejected

:26:54.:26:55.

an emergency EU plan that would have seen tens of thousands of refugees

:26:56.:27:00.

transferred out of the country in return for accepting a quota

:27:01.:27:04.

of almost 1300 refugees As an EU border country,

:27:05.:27:07.

Hungary has received 18,500 In 2015, it received the most asylum

:27:08.:27:13.

applications relative to its population of any EU state -

:27:14.:27:20.

1800 for every 100,000 local people, though the majority of those then

:27:21.:27:25.

travelled onwards to other Although the referendum

:27:26.:27:28.

result will have no affect on the EU's decision,

:27:29.:27:35.

the Hungarian government hopes the weight of public opinion

:27:36.:27:37.

will help it resist the plans, running a very controversial

:27:38.:27:40.

referendum campaign. For example, this poster saying

:27:41.:27:43.

migrants carried out We're joined now from Budapest

:27:44.:27:45.

by our Correspondent, Nick Thorpe. I understand that the polls are

:27:46.:27:59.

pretty clear that the government will win this referendum but it

:28:00.:28:05.

needs a turnout of at least 50% for it to matter. What indication of

:28:06.:28:14.

turnout so far? As of 11am, turnout was just over 16% of the electorate.

:28:15.:28:21.

We have an electrode of 8.3 million, the government is campaigning

:28:22.:28:27.

strongly for a no vote. The government have framed the question

:28:28.:28:31.

in such a way that it is hard to vote, yes, we do want this imposed

:28:32.:28:43.

on us. The issue of turnout is important because the opposition

:28:44.:28:50.

have campaigned not to vote or to spoil votes. Even if the government

:28:51.:28:57.

wins on the numbers, if more people vote against the quotas, is it a

:28:58.:29:01.

symbolic defeat for the government if that was to happen? Some people

:29:02.:29:08.

will argue it would be a symbolic defeat if they don't get 50%. We've

:29:09.:29:15.

heard that ministers are backing off the whole issue of turnout. They are

:29:16.:29:19.

hoping for at least 3 million people to vote. Even 4 million which would

:29:20.:29:26.

be the 50%, voting no to migrant quotas. They say that all of those

:29:27.:29:32.

votes will give them a strong moral hand. In the words of the Prime

:29:33.:29:36.

Minister, it will sharpen the Hungarian sword in the battles

:29:37.:29:39.

ahead. Thank you very much. Malin Bjork is Swedish

:29:40.:29:43.

MEP and Vice Chair of the Confederal Group

:29:44.:29:46.

of the European United Left Welcome to the programme. The quota

:29:47.:29:59.

system proposed already seem to be dying if the Hungarians vote the way

:30:00.:30:05.

they are expected to today, that will kill it, will it not? I think

:30:06.:30:12.

we should have it as a point of departure whether we have seen that

:30:13.:30:17.

Hungary is a model in any of the fields that we want hungry -- Europe

:30:18.:30:25.

to be. I don't think Hungary is the model. I don't think we should give

:30:26.:30:29.

him the kind of weight that he actually claims. He wants more

:30:30.:30:34.

weight to this referendum. I don't think we should give it to him.

:30:35.:30:41.

It is not just Hungary, is it? There are meant to be 100,000 migrants

:30:42.:30:48.

covered by the quota system, fewer than 5% have been covered by it. It

:30:49.:30:52.

is just not happening, whether Hungary votes for or against? No, it

:30:53.:30:58.

is totally... But that means it is not operational, it is simply not

:30:59.:31:02.

working. There are serious criticisms to have towards

:31:03.:31:05.

implementing partners in this. But I do think when it comes to the

:31:06.:31:08.

political course, Hungary is playing a very dangerous, racist and right

:31:09.:31:14.

nationalist game. I don't think we should adapt to it. If it comes to

:31:15.:31:19.

it, we have to be prepared to be behind those that do not want to be

:31:20.:31:24.

the Europe that is taking responsibility globally. Let me

:31:25.:31:27.

clarify what you mean by that. The Foreign Minister of Luxembourg has

:31:28.:31:31.

already said that Hungary should be expelled from the European Union. Is

:31:32.:31:37.

that what you are saying as well? No, no. You know what I think? As a

:31:38.:31:43.

progressive politician on the left side, I do have a lot of criticisms

:31:44.:31:49.

to the European Union. But there are planets apart from the kind of

:31:50.:31:52.

models that Viktor Orban is trying to build, where he does not respect

:31:53.:31:58.

human rights, laws and media freedoms, and now he attacks refugee

:31:59.:32:02.

rights. Given all of that, let's accept what you say is true about

:32:03.:32:07.

that, others may dispute it, but let's accept that as true, why

:32:08.:32:12.

should Hungary remain a member of the European Union? Well, it is up

:32:13.:32:16.

to each country that has voted to stay, and voted to become members,

:32:17.:32:22.

voting to stay, I don't think Orban has any intention of leaving EU. I

:32:23.:32:26.

think he wants more influence in the EU. I think he wants more influence

:32:27.:32:30.

domestic league through the referendum and more influence in the

:32:31.:32:33.

EU. The question the rest of the countries have to ask themselves is

:32:34.:32:37.

if we are going to give it to him or adapt to his politics in any of

:32:38.:32:41.

these fields he is active in? I think we should make a stand against

:32:42.:32:44.

it. We should have political forces in other countries that have exactly

:32:45.:32:48.

the same kind of agendas, which we don't want to see strengthened.

:32:49.:32:53.

Isn't the problem that may be Hungary is on the trend, and you are

:32:54.:32:58.

not? We have seem the right, some may call it the far right even, on

:32:59.:33:04.

the march in Austria, Poland and in Hungary, even in Germany, with the

:33:05.:33:08.

recent elections in Berlin and Angela Merkel's backyard, even

:33:09.:33:12.

progressive social Democratic Sweden, your third biggest party is

:33:13.:33:20.

now the Sweden, Democrats, a hard right nativist party. Why are forces

:33:21.:33:24.

on the move, and while the forces used and four on the defensive? The

:33:25.:33:28.

more progressive forces, I think they are growing in many countries

:33:29.:33:34.

also, such as Spain, Ireland and other countries. It is not just for

:33:35.:33:39.

the left, it is for the broader political spectrum to counteract

:33:40.:33:41.

nationalist, right-wing and racist forces. We know where they lead, a

:33:42.:33:46.

dead end. It is a challenge in the European countries. Why is Europe

:33:47.:33:51.

going in this direction? In 2016, why are the forces of the rights so

:33:52.:33:59.

strong? To be honest, I think we have to be a little bit more humble

:34:00.:34:05.

and say are we failing people in some way? Yes, austerity policies

:34:06.:34:09.

are not working. Inequalities have grown for over 20 years in Europe.

:34:10.:34:14.

Of course it is a failure. We are capable of saving banks, but not

:34:15.:34:19.

refugees. People see this. It is political failure and I think we

:34:20.:34:22.

have to sit down and create different pacifists. What is

:34:23.:34:26.

happening now is worrying. I see some of the political forces in

:34:27.:34:30.

Europe. -- create different patterns. I see parties in Europe

:34:31.:34:35.

adapting to racism nationalist voices. I think we have to be the

:34:36.:34:43.

different parties that will not adapt to nationalist stories. They

:34:44.:34:50.

paint imaginary enemies. A huge chunk of Hungary's public spending

:34:51.:34:54.

comes from the European Union, net contributors like Sweden and the

:34:55.:34:58.

United Kingdom. If Hungary votes this way, should that continue?

:34:59.:35:05.

Should we continue to bankroll it? The way Europe and the European

:35:06.:35:09.

Union, individual members develop, of course we should lead discussions

:35:10.:35:14.

about money and heel spending to the respect for rule of law, the respect

:35:15.:35:21.

for human rights and the respect for international rights that are being

:35:22.:35:24.

infringed by the Hungarian government. Of course, we have to

:35:25.:35:27.

have such a discussion and it has to be frank.

:35:28.:35:31.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:35:32.:35:33.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:35:34.:35:36.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:35:37.:35:50.

An agreement to resolve a bitterly disputed parade has been hailed

:35:51.:35:53.

We ask, how can the two communities in North Belfast

:35:54.:35:57.

And is this deal a sign that perhaps all contentious parades

:35:58.:36:02.

That's what I'll be discussing with Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly

:36:03.:36:06.

And our commentators, Chris Donnelly and Lesley Carroll -

:36:07.:36:11.

both, of course, with strong links to North Belfast -

:36:12.:36:13.

And we'll hear live from Stephen Walker in Birmingham

:36:14.:36:18.

Does the ending of one of the most contentious parades in recent years

:36:19.:36:31.

mean that all disputes can now be dealt with and agreed locally?

:36:32.:36:34.

Just over 24 hours ago an Orange Order parade past Ardoyne

:36:35.:36:37.

shops ended the three-year protest camp at nearby Twaddell Avenue,

:36:38.:36:41.

with a residents' organisation and the Orange Order

:36:42.:36:44.

committing themselves to a forum which will agree

:36:45.:36:47.

With me now to reflect on the wider implications of yesterday's

:36:48.:36:52.

resolution of such a seemingly intractable problem

:36:53.:36:55.

are Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly - an MLA for North Belfast,

:36:56.:36:58.

of course - and the DUP's Sir Jeffrey Donaldson.

:36:59.:37:05.

Welcome to the programme. Gerry Kelly, first of all.

:37:06.:37:09.

Is that the Twaddell issue dealt with once and for all in your view?

:37:10.:37:15.

Interestingly, the last commentary was seemingly intractable and that

:37:16.:37:24.

has been a difficulty, we never thought of it as tractable. A line

:37:25.:37:29.

runs through all the local issues about having conversation, people

:37:30.:37:36.

have been in conflict for a long time. There have been conversations,

:37:37.:37:42.

we have an agreement around evening parades which were most contentious

:37:43.:37:49.

and it augurs well for expanding out, into wider conversations about

:37:50.:37:55.

what we can do in the wider area without the issue of contentious

:37:56.:37:57.

parades jumping into the middle every time you try to talk with

:37:58.:38:04.

someone of a different opinion. What is your understanding about the

:38:05.:38:09.

agreement on future parades? The agreement says there is a moratorium

:38:10.:38:16.

and a forum will be setup and if there is an agreement, the

:38:17.:38:20.

moratoriums... But if that is an agreement, presumably unionists

:38:21.:38:24.

would point out to be an agreement that isn't the case that

:38:25.:38:28.

nationalists will never reach such an agreement? There is a chance the

:38:29.:38:34.

two interpret it differently. You wore a journalist and will try to

:38:35.:38:38.

interpret this. I know that's what people are saying on but the general

:38:39.:38:43.

view of people in Ardoyne is that the parade cause all sorts of

:38:44.:38:49.

difficulties in the area, especially in community relations. The view of

:38:50.:38:54.

the Orange Order is that they want to move on, why do we have an

:38:55.:39:00.

agreement? There was talk about trust but agreement either because

:39:01.:39:04.

there is a lack of trust. We have an agreement that says one will do a if

:39:05.:39:12.

the other does B, so we're at the point of conversations meaning

:39:13.:39:14.

something. The Orange Order did what they said they would do, the Crumlin

:39:15.:39:19.

Ardoyne Residents' Association did what they said they would do and we

:39:20.:39:24.

will move on, but I hope the wider issues will be dealt with without

:39:25.:39:32.

this difficulty. To be clear, is it your understanding that those from

:39:33.:39:35.

the nationalist side of the hosts who go into that forum understand

:39:36.:39:40.

that it is a possible outcome that there would be a future or future

:39:41.:39:46.

parades home in future? Everybody understands that if you have a forum

:39:47.:39:52.

and the dialogue, and it will be face to face, they will discuss the

:39:53.:39:56.

outcomes. And all outcomes are on the table? Yes, and it is up to CARA

:39:57.:40:03.

and the Orange Order to deal with that. I do not want to start dealing

:40:04.:40:09.

with what will be a job for them to do, but as a politician in the area,

:40:10.:40:16.

there are wider issues we can now hopefully have relationships which

:40:17.:40:20.

are not just one or two but 50 people from Ardoyne were from

:40:21.:40:23.

Twaddell Avenue talking to each other. Jeffrey Donaldson, you

:40:24.:40:32.

believe the forum will make progress of the outstanding issues like

:40:33.:40:39.

return parades? I believe it can. I think dialogue and local

:40:40.:40:43.

accommodations are the way forward. In 2010 when we last brought forward

:40:44.:40:48.

proposals for dealing with parades in its wider context, this is the

:40:49.:40:54.

kind of template we envisaged for dealing with local parade disputes

:40:55.:40:59.

and I welcome this. I think it is a good sign, I hope both sides will

:41:00.:41:04.

not engage in good faith and I have no reason to believe they weren't,

:41:05.:41:09.

and they will find an accommodation that addresses the Parades

:41:10.:41:14.

Commission. But you will be aware that the charge against the

:41:15.:41:19.

agreement is that there is a healthy dollop of constructive ambiguity in

:41:20.:41:23.

their and it is possible for the two sides to read it differently. And

:41:24.:41:28.

that has been the case with many agreements. Yes, we are very good at

:41:29.:41:37.

it here. The big challenge is whether people make the most of what

:41:38.:41:41.

is in front of them. I am encouraged by what I have heard, I think people

:41:42.:41:47.

will make the best of it, people are approaching this with the best

:41:48.:41:55.

intentions, there isn't a hidden agenda to overcome the immediate

:41:56.:41:59.

problem, you walk off the road and that is the end of it. I don't think

:42:00.:42:05.

that is where we are coming from. You are now a fan of constructive

:42:06.:42:10.

ambiguity? In the past you railed against it, you wanted everything to

:42:11.:42:15.

be out in the open and no subtext, now you are saying it isn't bad. I

:42:16.:42:22.

said it has been a reality that has marked the peace process. What we

:42:23.:42:26.

have done is make the best and to draw upon what is available to make

:42:27.:42:31.

things work in Northern Ireland and that is what we have done. Different

:42:32.:42:38.

people will interpret agreements in different ways, even if there wasn't

:42:39.:42:42.

constructive ambiguity that would be the case anyway and that is the

:42:43.:42:47.

reality of life here. The question of where we go now, people honoured

:42:48.:42:53.

what they said they would do yesterday and that is encouraging

:42:54.:42:56.

and they followed through. Secondly it is about leadership and I believe

:42:57.:43:03.

there is good leadership on both sides that can help resolve this

:43:04.:43:08.

issue for the longer term in North Belfast, but also there were lessons

:43:09.:43:11.

we can draw from this for the wider parading issue. Let me disagree on

:43:12.:43:17.

this, it's not constructive ambiguity. There is a statement in

:43:18.:43:23.

the agreement which says that there is a moratorium from yesterday,

:43:24.:43:31.

that's not constructive ambiguity. It is if the two sides read it

:43:32.:43:34.

differently. But they aren't reading it differently. You said you were

:43:35.:43:40.

also hearing on the grounds that different individuals read things

:43:41.:43:45.

differently. If I didn't say it clearly, is I said it was obvious on

:43:46.:43:49.

the ground that people of the Ardoyne did not want the parades

:43:50.:43:55.

through and the Orange Order want the parades through, that is a fact.

:43:56.:43:59.

The agreement is understood by both sides to mean exactly what it says

:44:00.:44:04.

and all these agreements are pretty well crafted. Let me bring in the

:44:05.:44:09.

commentators and hear what they have to say. Chris Donnelly, you read

:44:10.:44:16.

that statement with a degree of constructive ambiguity? Can't you

:44:17.:44:21.

see how both sides of the dispute could interpret it differently or do

:44:22.:44:26.

you think it's black and white? I think it's important to be honest,

:44:27.:44:38.

technically speaking the GARC spokespersons said that had Sinn

:44:39.:44:42.

Fein not offer a disparate, there would never have been returned

:44:43.:44:46.

parade, because then it begins to shape why they made this offer of

:44:47.:44:52.

the steel and I think it was because of the perspective of Sinn Fein are

:44:53.:44:57.

the DUP, they wanted to be seen to reach a hand-out, the loyalists and

:44:58.:45:02.

the Orange Order had dug themselves into a hole, by making themselves 81

:45:03.:45:07.

and done deal, this parade will not be repeated, this is where the

:45:08.:45:14.

ambiguity comes in, because of the term moratoriums it is very unlikely

:45:15.:45:20.

there will be a deal and only the Irish News has mentioned that

:45:21.:45:24.

publicly because politicians have been dancing around it. I do not

:45:25.:45:29.

envisage return parades for the foreseeable future. I think the

:45:30.:45:33.

reason why this parade offer was made was to create the ground in

:45:34.:45:37.

which he linked and reconciliation can take place and we can move on.

:45:38.:45:44.

That is the point I am trying to get that, that for unionists who are

:45:45.:45:48.

party to this agreement, they still hope there will be future parades.

:45:49.:45:52.

Chris seems to suggest there is no appetite for that in the nationalist

:45:53.:45:57.

community, hence make use of the phrase constructive ambiguity. Yes,

:45:58.:46:04.

and that may be the case but both sides to this understand that this

:46:05.:46:10.

is not all about parading, there are a lot of issues underneath which

:46:11.:46:13.

contribute to how each of the sides feel and what they expect in the

:46:14.:46:18.

future, so what I understand this agreement to do is creating that

:46:19.:46:22.

space in which all those issues can be addressed, parading as part of it

:46:23.:46:29.

but when you were in a forum where 50 people will encounter each other,

:46:30.:46:33.

they will talk about education and social deprivation, information

:46:34.:46:40.

sharing, a big issue for the loyalist committee, they don't feel

:46:41.:46:44.

they get information and that now needs to happen inside the forum.

:46:45.:46:49.

Maybe that is the point Jeffrey was making, it is not just going to be a

:46:50.:46:56.

forum discussing future return parades, it's a much bigger agenda.

:46:57.:47:00.

In my opinion it has to be, not necessarily in the forum but the

:47:01.:47:05.

dialogue, the process of conversation has to be broadened

:47:06.:47:11.

out. There are good relationships, and Lesley and Chris know this,

:47:12.:47:15.

there have always been good relationships across the political

:47:16.:47:20.

views but they are nearly individual relationships. What I want to see,

:47:21.:47:24.

and I think this gives the start to it, is the ability for people on a

:47:25.:47:30.

weekly basis to be talking about all things like Lesley said which mean

:47:31.:47:34.

something to people and that is what has been difficult to get in North

:47:35.:47:40.

Belfast. Interesting, Jeffrey, it's good to have you with us. We were

:47:41.:47:47.

not able to find a single unionist who would take part in the

:47:48.:47:52.

discussion on The View on Thursday night. We have heard claims recently

:47:53.:47:57.

and going back several years of an absence of leadership by the main

:47:58.:48:02.

unionist parties on this issue. Do you accept that? Know, and I think

:48:03.:48:10.

people may have been reluctant to speak on Thursday because before the

:48:11.:48:14.

events of yesterday people did not want to be drawn into saying

:48:15.:48:18.

something... Gerry Kelly was happy to take part. That is a call for

:48:19.:48:26.

Sinn Fein to make but I do not think it is about the lack of leadership.

:48:27.:48:30.

Behind-the-scenes there have been unionist representatives in North

:48:31.:48:34.

Belfast who have been encouraging this process. But not standing up in

:48:35.:48:40.

public and defending it. I'm here today and doing that. You weren't on

:48:41.:48:47.

Thursday. We wanted to see how things went. In the past week had

:48:48.:48:53.

this a few weeks ago and the wheels came off and we didn't want that to

:48:54.:48:59.

happen. So the unionist leadership didn't back itself to come on and

:49:00.:49:04.

support the deal. I'm not saying that, I am saying there was a

:49:05.:49:08.

feeling, let's leave the airways clear for a few days to let this

:49:09.:49:13.

event takes place and then we can comment, and let me be clear, we

:49:14.:49:19.

support what has happened, we believe that the accommodation that

:49:20.:49:23.

has been reached here is something that could be repeated in other

:49:24.:49:30.

areas. We want to see a broader solution, we recognised that

:49:31.:49:33.

disputes over parades are symptoms of a deeper problem that we need to

:49:34.:49:37.

address, we're up for that, the Fresh Start agreement outlines

:49:38.:49:43.

measures that we intend to take to address these things, so far from

:49:44.:49:49.

shying away from this, the Fresh Start agreement creates the context

:49:50.:49:53.

in which we can continue to progress and reach local accommodation as

:49:54.:50:00.

occurred this weekend. And does that mean the Parades Commission can be

:50:01.:50:04.

done away with and the Executive office run by your parties can come

:50:05.:50:08.

up with an alternative to which? I think you are ahead of it there.

:50:09.:50:16.

That is part of the conversation. I do not think it is time for the

:50:17.:50:21.

Parades Commission to go away, I would argue this was the hardest

:50:22.:50:26.

issue we dealt with, we have moved into a new era. I don't like to

:50:27.:50:32.

overemphasise this but locally and throughout Belfast this is a great

:50:33.:50:37.

move forward. There are still others and there risk at the red that you

:50:38.:50:41.

cannot put one on top of another because there are always local

:50:42.:50:46.

issues but that the red running through it, every negotiation we

:50:47.:50:50.

have been involved in, once you start talking you work on the right

:50:51.:50:55.

road. Do you think the time has come for the end of the Parades

:50:56.:51:00.

Commission? I think there is a basis for moving forward. We outline ideas

:51:01.:51:06.

in 2010 and I think we can build on those ideas and what happened

:51:07.:51:07.

yesterday. It's just a couple of hours

:51:08.:51:09.

until Theresa May's opening address to the Conservative Party conference

:51:10.:51:12.

and she certainly has everyone's attention with this morning's

:51:13.:51:15.

announcement that the process to begin withdrawing from the EU

:51:16.:51:17.

will be triggered before the end of March next year.

:51:18.:51:19.

At the conference in Birmingham is our political correspondent,

:51:20.:51:22.

Stephen Walker. That's the date in the diary

:51:23.:51:24.

everyone's been waiting to hear. How's that announcement

:51:25.:51:28.

gone down in Birmingham? This morning I have been speaking to

:51:29.:51:39.

some Conservative Party activists and they were delighted that the

:51:40.:51:43.

reason of May have said this. We have been having this debate for

:51:44.:51:48.

months, when with things move forward? She kept saying Brexit

:51:49.:51:52.

means Brexit and people in the party and media were getting bored by

:51:53.:51:57.

that, they wanted a new life and people felt she couldn't come to

:51:58.:52:01.

this conference, she had to say something new. People felt she

:52:02.:52:06.

couldn't go into the debate today without saying something new so she

:52:07.:52:11.

said Article 50 will be triggered before March and people in the

:52:12.:52:15.

Conservative Party are generally pleased and I think she will get a

:52:16.:52:18.

good reception this afternoon. You've been speaking to Theresa May

:52:19.:52:20.

about Brexit and its impact on Northern Ireland and,

:52:21.:52:22.

of course, what it will mean Yes, we had an interview in Downing

:52:23.:52:31.

Street before the conference, we talked about Brexit and the border,

:52:32.:52:35.

our first interview talking about Northern Ireland and let's look at

:52:36.:52:42.

part of that. What we are both clear about, myself and the Irish

:52:43.:52:46.

government, and the government in Northern Ireland, is that we don't

:52:47.:52:52.

want to see a return to the borders of the past but we will work closely

:52:53.:52:57.

together to make sure we can see movement across the water. But you

:52:58.:53:02.

campaign in Northern Ireland to remain and said a leave vote would

:53:03.:53:07.

result in some form of tariffs and controls, so have you changed your

:53:08.:53:12.

mind? I don't think I used those words, I said of course if we leave

:53:13.:53:19.

and have land border with the EU, that changes that relationship

:53:20.:53:22.

across the border but what I am clear about what might you said it

:53:23.:53:27.

would be inconceivable that there wouldn't be some kind of change.

:53:28.:53:33.

There would be a land border with a country in the EU, but I think all

:53:34.:53:40.

parties are very clear that there is the intent and will to make sure we

:53:41.:53:44.

have an arrangement that isn't a return to the borders of the past.

:53:45.:53:52.

How do you police that? We're discussing how we can develop these

:53:53.:53:58.

ideas to make sure we deliver on the intention of all parties that we

:53:59.:54:01.

don't return to the borders of the past. We're looking at Brexit

:54:02.:54:08.

negotiations and these will take time, there are complexities in

:54:09.:54:12.

those negotiations but we want to ensure we continue to have a good

:54:13.:54:17.

relationship with Europe. I want to see over all the UK having the right

:54:18.:54:22.

deal in terms of trades and goods and services.

:54:23.:54:23.

What else should we be looking out for over the next few days?

:54:24.:54:26.

Will the new Secretary of State get his moment in the sun?

:54:27.:54:30.

Yes, that will be on Tuesday, it will be a busy day. We have that

:54:31.:54:38.

traditional Ulster fry on Tuesday morning, of -- Arlene Foster and

:54:39.:54:44.

Francie Molloy and James Brokenshire will be there, he will talk to the

:54:45.:54:51.

conference and then at lunchtime something unusual, a champagne

:54:52.:54:58.

reception being hosted by the DUP. That may not have happened in Ian

:54:59.:55:03.

Paisley's day, I've heard of champagne socialists but this is the

:55:04.:55:06.

first time I have heard of champagne unionist. An interesting move away

:55:07.:55:13.

from the Devil's buttermilk, as Ian Paisley would have had it.

:55:14.:55:15.

Stephen Walker in Birmingham, thank you.

:55:16.:55:16.

Time now for a look back at the political week in 60

:55:17.:55:19.

The opposition and set the Assembly, to keep the focus on Nama. People

:55:20.:55:37.

need to know Northern Ireland is a clean place to do business.

:55:38.:55:39.

The blame game began as it was revealed that a report

:55:40.:55:41.

We had a missed opportunity for a party discussion. The party didn't

:55:42.:55:53.

block it and some of the allegations made like saying Northern Ireland

:55:54.:55:56.

would take an immediate economic hit have been shown to be false.

:55:57.:55:59.

And the result of that referendum is causing problems

:56:00.:56:01.

We have 120 million euros of offers for cross-border prospects and they

:56:02.:56:11.

are logjam. And as the BBC charter was debated,

:56:12.:56:13.

one MLA suggested the Assembly It might be interesting to study the

:56:14.:56:24.

viewing figures of Stormont Today for insomniacs and burglars.

:56:25.:56:27.

A chippy Danny Kennedy ending Gareth Gordon's look back

:56:28.:56:29.

And let's have a final word from Chris and Lesley.

:56:30.:56:35.

To go back to Birmingham, Lesley, and Theresa Walker talking about

:56:36.:56:44.

Theresa May saying she will trigger Article 50 by the end of next March,

:56:45.:56:49.

so we know what timescale we are looking at. Its news and it's not

:56:50.:56:55.

news, we all knew it would soon happen but we now want to know

:56:56.:57:00.

content. It's great that the snap the beginning and the end but I

:57:01.:57:04.

would like more content. And more information about the issue of

:57:05.:57:11.

border controls. She was keen in that interview to stress a different

:57:12.:57:15.

tone to the one she had before the referendum, she wants to work with

:57:16.:57:21.

the Irish government to minimise the impact of the border, and also this

:57:22.:57:27.

week other Tory ex-ministers, John Redwood and Iain Duncan Smith,

:57:28.:57:31.

prepared their own Brexit blueprint and it shows the path is fraught

:57:32.:57:35.

with dangers fought to reason makes because other sides want to

:57:36.:57:41.

emphasise angles. Enda Kenny has said he wants to have this

:57:42.:57:44.

All-Ireland Brexit conversation in Dublin. The DUP and Full Street

:57:45.:57:50.

unionists are not going. Is that a mistake? I think it is in that

:57:51.:57:56.

Brexit matters to the Irish greatly in terms of the border, it has to

:57:57.:58:02.

matter to us as well and it's better if they all have a conversation.

:58:03.:58:06.

Edwin Poots was an the view on Thursday night, not interested and

:58:07.:58:13.

said it was a waste of his time. I think it's the instinctive unionist

:58:14.:58:17.

hostility to anything All-Ireland but there will be voices that might

:58:18.:58:22.

open the week unionists, perhaps involved in the CBI for agricultural

:58:23.:58:30.

interests, who will be keen on having their views expressed and

:58:31.:58:33.

have another chance to take forward their concerns. It will be

:58:34.:58:38.

interesting to see when it happens and we will be sitting around the

:58:39.:58:39.

table. Back to Andrew in London.

:58:40.:58:40.

a much better job than And we're joined now by the former

:58:41.:58:44.

Work and Pensions Secretary and Leave campaigner,

:58:45.:59:03.

Iain Duncan Smith. it you said we could be out of the

:59:04.:59:20.

European Union by 2018? My senses if you keep their process as simple as

:59:21.:59:25.

possible and don't try to get special pleading and try to be a

:59:26.:59:29.

member of the single market which they are not going to grant you, if

:59:30.:59:33.

you go for a clear and simple position on trade and find an

:59:34.:59:40.

agreement then the more complex issues then disappear. Theresa May

:59:41.:59:47.

has said that when she brings the act forward to repeal the 1972 act,

:59:48.:59:54.

at the same time you binding the European Law and you speed the

:59:55.:59:59.

process up. Keeping it simple, keeping up pace is what we

:00:00.:00:03.

recommended. It allows you to get the end point quicker.

:00:04.:00:08.

You talk about member of the single market, Chris Grayling told me there

:00:09.:00:14.

was no such thing, which slightly puzzled me. You clearly think that

:00:15.:00:21.

there is. What you want, as I understand it, is a free-trade

:00:22.:00:24.

agreement with the European Union. That could not be done by 2018? We

:00:25.:00:29.

want free trade. There are two approaches to getting free trade

:00:30.:00:31.

with the European Union. The first is that you say, OK, in this

:00:32.:00:38.

process, if we sympathise and ask ourselves, if we now have a new

:00:39.:00:43.

relationship, we have left, we want capital goods, we want to access

:00:44.:00:49.

each other's markets, it benefits you more than us, but we are happy

:00:50.:00:53.

not to have tariff barriers on your trade, we have an agreement of no

:00:54.:00:57.

tariff barriers. Financial services are outside, a separate issue, more

:00:58.:01:02.

of a regulatory issue. That is also approaching a deal on equivalence

:01:03.:01:05.

that we could accelerate. The point I am saying is if you do not go down

:01:06.:01:10.

the road trying to nominate individual bits and pieces and say

:01:11.:01:13.

it is a good agreement for us both, you could reach that by agreement.

:01:14.:01:17.

If you don't and you can't, you could fall back on the WTO

:01:18.:01:23.

arrangements and say, well, later on, we will continue that

:01:24.:01:25.

negotiation discussion to decide whether or not we want a free-trade

:01:26.:01:31.

position. If you fall back on that, what you say to the boss of Nissan,

:01:32.:01:35.

who says he will not invest again in this unless the government back row

:01:36.:01:41.

compensates him, he faces tariffs? The answer to that is that first of

:01:42.:01:45.

all I did not believe we will end up in a situation where it is, in any

:01:46.:01:49.

way, a financial benefit for the European Union to want to impose any

:01:50.:01:54.

kind tariff. Right now you are 12% better off anyway. The level of the

:01:55.:02:00.

pound has made it 12% more competitive with European partners,

:02:01.:02:04.

even if you slapped on 10% tariff. It goes up and down, but you asking

:02:05.:02:09.

him to take investment decisions, multi-billion pound decisions, head

:02:10.:02:13.

of Jaguar, saying roughly the same thing, at a time of real

:02:14.:02:23.

uncertainty. Until it is resolved, investment in Britain will slow

:02:24.:02:27.

down, if not dry up? They invest because this is a darn good place to

:02:28.:02:30.

sell your businesses. You heard from the head of the publishing sector in

:02:31.:02:33.

Germany, he said Britain in five years' time will be much more

:02:34.:02:37.

profitable than anywhere else and will be the boom place. Outside the

:02:38.:02:45.

European Union it will be more flexible to set out arrangements. I

:02:46.:02:48.

am with him on this. I was in business before I came into

:02:49.:02:53.

politics. Nobody knows what the future holds for anything. For car

:02:54.:02:57.

makers and others that want to build stuff, they are here because they

:02:58.:03:01.

want a flexible workforce, much lower levels of cost, and a much

:03:02.:03:07.

better contract law base. 85% of Nissan's output goes to the single

:03:08.:03:11.

market. That is right, they also sell here. 15%? You are not suddenly

:03:12.:03:17.

going to meet a massive tariff wall, a closet is not in the interests of

:03:18.:03:21.

the European Union to set up a massive tariffs. Guess who sells

:03:22.:03:25.

more to us than we do to them? The European Union. The Germans

:03:26.:03:29.

themselves are behind-the-scenes talking to us. We had a lot of that

:03:30.:03:33.

during the referendum. Let me move onto some other things. Damian Green

:03:34.:03:38.

is now running your old department. He is scrapping repeated tests for

:03:39.:03:42.

the seriously disabled, people that you know are not going to be able to

:03:43.:03:49.

improve. Why didn't you do that? We wanted to change this, it was a

:03:50.:03:54.

programme given to us by the last Labour government, we did quite a

:03:55.:03:58.

lot to improve it. The big problem, the programme as it exists at the

:03:59.:04:01.

moment, it does not deal with health conditions, it deals with ability to

:04:02.:04:04.

work. That is the problem. If you want to scrap it for people with

:04:05.:04:08.

health conditions, you have to change the criteria by which they

:04:09.:04:12.

are being assessed. That has always been the issue. For disability

:04:13.:04:24.

payments, it is a different matter. They are assessed on their

:04:25.:04:26.

condition. The problem for that... He will stop the assessments of

:04:27.:04:28.

people that are seriously disabled, why didn't you do that? This is not

:04:29.:04:31.

seriously disabled, it is people that suffer from sickness

:04:32.:04:32.

conditions, not necessarily full-time disability. There are two

:04:33.:04:37.

elements. When I was in Government, we have always set out a process

:04:38.:04:40.

that said we needed to change the way the sickness benefit system was

:04:41.:04:46.

assessed. That was so you could rule out conditions, some progressive,

:04:47.:04:50.

some absolute, on a medical basis, on the approval of the Health

:04:51.:04:54.

Service, so they would say this is a condition that will change, it will

:04:55.:04:57.

mean they cannot work now but they might be able to work for a bit. You

:04:58.:05:01.

put it into a box marked medical conditions. That was already on the

:05:02.:05:06.

box. He has just done that, to acclaim. Why didn't you do it, if it

:05:07.:05:12.

is that simple? We needed to get agreement in Government and we have

:05:13.:05:15.

not reached the Provo ease approval. It is a wider plan. This could have

:05:16.:05:21.

been incremented on its own? But you have to change the way you do it. I

:05:22.:05:28.

was in favour of a bigger plan that brought in changes all into one,

:05:29.:05:32.

because they are competing with each other and do not have the kind of

:05:33.:05:35.

effect that you want. It is the right thing to do. Until now, there

:05:36.:05:39.

have not been a huge number of assessments taking place because the

:05:40.:05:42.

system has not been able to cover it. There is a lot of talk about

:05:43.:05:49.

trying to reposition the Tory party on the centre ground, even the

:05:50.:05:53.

centre-left, talking about worker's rights and so on. It is not credible

:05:54.:06:00.

until she does something. 6 million people earn less than the Living

:06:01.:06:03.

Wage, after six years of Conservative government. 6 million

:06:04.:06:07.

people earn less than the Living Wage. That is the reality, not Tory

:06:08.:06:11.

erect a wreck that we are hearing in the hall. -- that is the Tory

:06:12.:06:21.

rhetoric. Raising the minimum wage was making sure that you identify

:06:22.:06:27.

that and raise the blood. There are still 6 million below. The mantra of

:06:28.:06:32.

this government was to make work pay. 50% of families in poverty have

:06:33.:06:41.

at least one family member working. They are still in poverty, waiting,

:06:42.:06:45.

doing difficult and unpleasant jobs, long hours, they are still in

:06:46.:06:51.

poverty. Many people in this country work and still it is the equivalent

:06:52.:06:58.

of poverty. That does not pay, work does not pay for them. Huge problems

:06:59.:07:02.

down the low skill level of work. This is the one area, the level of

:07:03.:07:11.

skills at that point is arguably some of the lowest in the Western

:07:12.:07:17.

world. Companies too often do not invest in skills because of the

:07:18.:07:20.

nature of the tax credit system, you have them in packets of 16 hours, it

:07:21.:07:24.

is not worth investing. Universal Credit will change all of that quite

:07:25.:07:28.

dramatically. It allows people to work more of the hours, invest more

:07:29.:07:33.

in them. The second aspect is back to the migration issue. That has had

:07:34.:07:36.

a very damaging effect on low workers. There are two elements of

:07:37.:07:42.

this. It is not just the statutory migration, it is that what happened

:07:43.:07:45.

is that a lot of people come for under one year. They do part-time

:07:46.:07:52.

work, they claim full benefits, Migration Watch proved it is over 4

:07:53.:07:56.

billion per year. That allows them to go and do cash in hand work. It

:07:57.:08:01.

is a big problem, it has only now become clear how damaging that has

:08:02.:08:06.

become to British people working at low income level. What does this

:08:07.:08:10.

party, if it is this self-styled Workers Party, what does it have to

:08:11.:08:15.

do in a country where 6 million people get less than the Living

:08:16.:08:20.

Wage, 50% of people in poverty are already in work and poverty levels

:08:21.:08:23.

among those in work are at record levels. So much for the worker's

:08:24.:08:35.

party? The answer is it has to do a lot, we have been talking about

:08:36.:08:39.

Brexit a lot, Theresa May has dropped a lot of hints about what

:08:40.:08:44.

she wants to do. The announcement yesterday morning about this massive

:08:45.:08:49.

review, led by a Blairite, Matthew Taylor, to completely re-examine

:08:50.:08:54.

employment rights. Thereby meaning, for the low paid and the casual

:08:55.:09:01.

workers, holiday pay for Uber drivers, it opens a massive area of

:09:02.:09:08.

things, grammar schools... You need high-quality technology schools to

:09:09.:09:19.

up-skill its? She has all of this on her agenda, possibly more

:09:20.:09:24.

interesting than even Brexit. I was planning not to mention Brexit in

:09:25.:09:30.

this segment, but I think I did. There was a lot of flesh to be put

:09:31.:09:33.

on his bones before it is convincing? Theresa May is playing a

:09:34.:09:40.

political game of trying to dump the nasty party image, become a more

:09:41.:09:44.

compassionate conservative. She is changing from the David Cameron era,

:09:45.:09:50.

instead of being the bottom 10% or 15% of people that he was focusing

:09:51.:09:55.

on, as well as the wealthier elite, she is looking at the people earning

:09:56.:10:00.

more than ?16,000, up to ?21,000, those who have children that are not

:10:01.:10:05.

on free school meals, not the most deprived, she calls them the just

:10:06.:10:10.

managing classes, they might have one for holiday each year, they

:10:11.:10:13.

might want to send their kids to piano lessons or the local Football

:10:14.:10:18.

Club, they are not the poorest people on welfare. That could have

:10:19.:10:22.

an impact on what you're saying, it could also undermine her reputation

:10:23.:10:25.

for being compassionate if she is seen to be abandoning the people

:10:26.:10:30.

that need help most. There is always a political case for doing something

:10:31.:10:33.

for Middle Britain, where most people are. They call at Middle

:10:34.:10:37.

America over there and so on. But these are not the in work but in

:10:38.:10:44.

poverty. Being a worker's party, one that dines out on its support for

:10:45.:10:48.

work, if it is to do anything, it has to do something about these

:10:49.:10:53.

people? The key issue is what the economic policies are in this new

:10:54.:10:59.

government. Nobody on the programme this morning has talked about the

:11:00.:11:02.

deficit, which George Osborne framed everything around, to the point

:11:03.:11:11.

where, as they know better than anyone, he struggles to get welfare

:11:12.:11:14.

reforms affected because of our budget cuts that hit those on low

:11:15.:11:20.

income in work. Until we know the degree to which the framing of that

:11:21.:11:24.

deficit strategy has changed, we will not really know the space they

:11:25.:11:28.

will have to make sure that does not happen over the next few years and

:11:29.:11:32.

the opposite happens. That applies to all of these issues, actually.

:11:33.:11:37.

The economy will provide the space, or not, to do these things. The

:11:38.:11:44.

Treasury is telling the Chancellor that the slowdown in the economy,

:11:45.:11:48.

not as slow as they thought, but still a slowdown, that, in itself,

:11:49.:11:52.

will widen the deficit. Therefore, he is not going to have a tonne of

:11:53.:11:57.

money to throw around on top of that, which would widen the deficit

:11:58.:12:01.

even further. There is room for manoeuvre which may be quite slight?

:12:02.:12:06.

Not quite true. He has abandoned George Osborne's fiscal targets.

:12:07.:12:11.

Having already taken this into account by what they think is the

:12:12.:12:14.

slowing of the economy. They have been wrong in the past, but that is

:12:15.:12:17.

why they have done that. There is not a turn of money around to spend

:12:18.:12:22.

billions on infrastructure, unless, of course, like Mr Corbyn, you want

:12:23.:12:27.

to borrow it. When you say you are not going to eradicate the deficit

:12:28.:12:32.

by 2020, that is what you mean. If he needs to cushion the Brexit

:12:33.:12:36.

impact, if there is one, I don't think we could pay off the deficit

:12:37.:12:40.

by 2020. Then you'll have all of this money to do what you want with.

:12:41.:12:46.

Final thought? There is also the attitude about business and the

:12:47.:12:50.

attitude to the super rich and well. I think Theresa May will concentrate

:12:51.:12:54.

on that more than David Cameron, alleviating concerns. The Autumn

:12:55.:12:57.

Statement from the Chancellor will be as big as any of the statements

:12:58.:13:02.

we hear this week. I am glad to hear it, it will be coming up live on a

:13:03.:13:04.

Daily Politics special. at the Conservative Party

:13:05.:13:07.

conference here in Birmingham. Fear not, I'll be back tomorrow

:13:08.:13:10.

at 11am for a two-hour special as Chancellor Philip Hammond

:13:11.:13:13.

takes to the stage. We are back on Tuesday and Wednesday

:13:14.:13:19.

bringing Theresa May's speech on Wednesday just before lunch. We will

:13:20.:13:23.

be back next Sunday as well. In the meantime, remember -

:13:24.:13:26.

if it's Sunday, it's

:13:27.:13:29.

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