05/06/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


05/06/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest on the EU referendum campaigns. Andrew is joined by John Prescott and Conservative MP David Davis.


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Transcript


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Just over a fortnight to go, and the referendum debate is getting

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serious, with Boris Johnson and John Major the latest senior

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We'll be discussing all the week's big developments,

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We've hit the road with both campaigns, and we've got two big

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I'll be joined by Labour's John Prescott,

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And, if you haven't decided how to vote yet,

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One MP who's only now finally reached a decision will reveal live

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And coming up here - As the Assembly prepares

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for its first full week of business, I'll be talking to Mike Nesbitt

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about opposition and his relationship with his SDLP

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And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times

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more likely to trust the word of a random stranger

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And, in a week in which one poll showed the public are three times

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I'm joined by a political panel with the full authority

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It's Sam Coates, Isabel Oakeshott, and Janan Ganesh.

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We'll try and find some random strangers to replace

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them next week, and see if you notice the difference!

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So, in case you weren't sure just how high the stakes were in this

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referendum campaign, you only have to look at this

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morning's papers, and listen to former Prime Minister John Major

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taking aim at his fellow Tories in the Leave campaign.

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The current Prime Minister David Cameron tried to get his party

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to avoid so-called blue-on-blue attacks, in the hope of keeping

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It seems like John Major didn't get the message,

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as he accused the Leave campaign of squalid deceit,

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and called Boris Johnson a court jester.

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Here he is, talking to Andrew Marr earlier.

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This is going to affect people, their livelihoods, their future,

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for a very long time to come, and if they are given honest,

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straightforward facts and they decide to leave,

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then that is the decision the British people take.

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But if they decide to leave on the basis of inaccurate

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information, inaccurate information known to be inaccurate,

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Now, I may be wrong, but that is how I see their campaign.

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And this is so important, for once, I'm not prepared to give the benefit

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of the doubt to other people, I'm going to say

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And I think this is a deceitful campaign, and in terms

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of what they are saying about immigration, a really

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They are misleading people to an extraordinary extent.

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So, that was former Prime Minister John Major, but,

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when Boris Johnson took to the same sofa, he studiously declined

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to return fire when asked if those words were part of an attempt

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by the Remain campaign to "take him out".

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Whether it is or not, this morning I think that...

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I'm rather with John McDonnell this morning...

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He says that there's too much of this sort of blue-on-blue action,

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and what he wants to hear is the arguments,

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Boris failing to take the bait. As I said, John major hadn't got the

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memo from down the street, that was a joke.

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The fact was John Major was sent into the show by Downing Street to

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beat up on Boris. Is that an example, a testament to have rattled

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they are? My own evidence is they are very

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rattled, they got extremely twitchy about something I tweeted on Friday

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night where I suggested a prominent Remain person was appearing on sky.

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This shows the level of nerves in Downing Street. The kind of language

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being exchanged between senior figures in the party raises very

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serious questions about how the party comes together.

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We had Michael Gove this morning saying he thinks the party can come

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together on June the 24th. Of course they can, but I doubt it will be on

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June the 24th. It is quite remarkable for a

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Conservative Downing Street to get a former Conservative prime ministers

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to come onto the BBC, the main Sunday morning news show, Andrew

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Maher, and to beat up on the man who is currently favourite to be the

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Tory leader. That is almost unprecedented.

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John Major put his credibility on the line with phrases like squalid,

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depressing. He was going for Boris Johnson.

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There is a clear, strategic imperative behind what John Major

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was saying, he is trying to reduce Boris Johnson's credibility,

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currently the most popular and trusted figure in the EU debate.

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They are worried and trying to harm that.

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So, they are going for the man. The Big Questions this morning for

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Downing Street, and it is right to point fingers at Downing Street for

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pushing this kind of intervention, stiffening John Major's spines when

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it turned out Boris was going to be on the programme I think he had a

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bubble. That is my understanding. The danger

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is that Downing Street are encouraging this, to send this

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debate into a Tory blue-on-blue battle.

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The effect may well be to deter Labour voters.

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The people who want Britain to stay inside you need to do two things, to

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make sure Tory voters vote for Remain, and turn out the Remain vote

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against Labour and SNB voters. The question is whether having all

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the headlines dominated by this blue-on-blue fight -- SNP.

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It means people shrug and give up. It is more than just blue-on-blue.

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From what John Major said this morning, it seems Downing Street is

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prepared to trash the Tory brand, their own brand, in desperation to

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win on June the 23rd. John Major describing one of the

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likely people to be the ex-Tory leader -- next Tory leader as a

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court jester. Saying, if you put Michael Gove,

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Boris Johnson comic Iain Duncan Smith in charge of the NHS, is like

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giving your pet hamster to a buy them. A second Tory poster. How can

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you not conclude they are so desperate about June the 23rd they

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are prepared to trash their own party's brand.

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Short of using the B word when he thought the Microsoft when talking

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to Michael Brunson, it was very vociferous.

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It is true Boris Johnson did not retaliate in the interview. John

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Major and number ten would argue that retaliation was made very

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early, over the past few weeks, the Prime Minister's integrity on some

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questions had been brought into doubt by people in his own party.

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Without defending number ten's instructions to John Major if they

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exist, they feel aggrieved because of attacks during the campaign.

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Looking at the footage of John Major, I detect sincere emotion on

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his part, rather than being a mouthpiece.

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I did argue that he didn't mean what he said.

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As Sam was saying, he didn't want to come on.

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This is such an important development, it tells us about the

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remain camped. Now, staying with the EU referendum,

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today we're going to try Two well-informed campaigners,

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the Conservative MEP Dan Hannan and the Labour MP Emma Reynolds,

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will be interrogating each other I'll mostly just be sitting

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back to watch. A short while ago in our green room,

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they tossed a coin to see Emma is the winner, or loser,

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depending on your point of view, so they'll be the first

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to be cross-examined. They took a break in campaigning

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to make their pitch I'm Daniel Hannan, Conservative

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Member of the European Parliament, and I'm inviting you to fire me

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on the 23rd of June. First, because leaving

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is the modern choice. The European Union

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is a relic of the 1950s, when regional blocs

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looked like the future, but that world has been overtaken

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by technological change. Second, because it's

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the cheaper choice. Instead of handing Brussels

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?20 billion a year gross, 10 billion net, we'll have our money

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to spend on our priorities. We will take back the sublime right

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to hire and fire our own lawmakers. In a necessarily uncertain world,

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we will have taken back control to mitigate any risks ourselves

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instead of passing power to people who may not

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have our interests at heart. And fifth, because it's

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the confident choice. We are a merchant,

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maritime, global nation, the fifth largest economy

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on the planet, one of five permanent seat-holders

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on the UN Security Council. We have the world's most

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widely studied language, before we are able to run our own

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affairs in our own interests? Trading and cooperating with friends

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and allies on every continent, including Europe,

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but living under our own laws. So, here are Dan Hannan

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and Emma Reynolds. And, just to explain the rules,

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you've just five You can only ask questions,

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or only give answers. Nine out of ten economists and a

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string of organisations say leaving the EU would damage the economy,

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make families worse off, cause a recession, could you name an

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independent economic force -- economic forecaster who has said the

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opposite? Five former chancellors are

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campaigning to leave, plenty of economists, ...

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Gerard Lyons has said, although in favour of leaving, if we were to

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vote to leave, the two years, it would cause great uncertainty and

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depress the economy. He hasn't said that. He said that in

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a report. He hasn't. You will have to do

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better than that. He is strongly of the view leaving means walking away

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from a declining trade bloc and being able to leap up... And the

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uncertainty? All these international bodies...

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Hang on. The IMF, these are people who shared the outlook,

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international bureaucrats, they share the lifestyle, the tax-free

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lifestyle, they shared the basic outlook. Through euros, because that

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is the kind of circles they live in. The Institute for Fiscal Studies is

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widely respected, they have said by leaving we could blow a black hole

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of up to ?40 billion in our public finances, meaning less money for

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public services. They were feeding in the same basic

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data they got from these IMF, OECD organisations.

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They are independent. If I didn't think we would be better off as a

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whole, I would not be inviting viewers to make me redundant. The

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reason I am confident I will have a job in the private sector doing

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something more productive than regulating everyone else is we

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shouldn't be linked to the world is Oates only collapsing trade bloc.

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There are huge opportunity -- the world's. We are the only one that

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hasn't grown. Another question, you have described

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the NHS as the biggest 60 year mistake, why can the public trust

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the Leave campaign when they don't want the NHS to be in public hands?

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I said the mistake was having a nationalised system rather than a

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pluralist one as they have in almost every other industrialised country.

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The referendum is an instruction to the Government to get us out.

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It does not mean you are electing the boat Leave campaign, but giving

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a mandate to get us out on terms and in a timescale said to our allies

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across the control -- the channel but in our interests.

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We are really looking at a decision to leave and asking people not to

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trust any other politician but the British electorate.

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The weight of economic evidence is on the remain camped, you would

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admit that at least. Can you name a country that has

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access to the single market but does not accept free movement?

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The EU side free trade agreements with Colombia...

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You said access to the single market, every country in Europe has

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access to the single market. There is a free trade area from

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non-EU Iceland... Why therefore does Ireland and

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Norway faced agricultural tariffs of over 13%?

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Ireland and Norway? Icelands and Norway.

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Yes, they have wisely chosen to stay out of the Common Agricultural

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Policy. Their farmers are strongly in favour of staying out of the CIP.

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If we did the same thing, instead of being doubly penalised as a net food

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importer with efficient farms, paying more in, getting less out, we

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can have a British farming policy tailored to suit our needs.

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In Northern Ireland, you suggested the border would remain open between

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the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. How can you therefore

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guarantee that if you want to stop free movement, that European

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migrants would not come through that border? You are leaving the back

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door open. Illegal migrants could come through that border today but

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do not. They could come through legally. We have an agreement which

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includes the Isle of Man and the Channel Islands, which are not in

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the, it long predates the EU. The point is it is possible now, don't

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take anyone's word for it, we have a common travel area with EU and

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non-EU states, no-one in Dublin or Westminster is suggesting that is a

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problem. We have only three seconds to go, tough and time in the

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interests of fairness! It is the dunnock Emma to be cross-examined,

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let's look at her pitch to undecided voters.

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We are stronger, safer and better off in Europe.

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Families benefit from lower prices, more jobs,

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Businesses benefit from a European single market

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Workers benefit from employment protection.

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We trade more with the EU than any other country.

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from companies like Jaguar Land Rover here in the West Midlands.

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And by staying in the EU, we will attract even more investment

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and create more jobs for the next generation.

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In the 21st century, the challenges that our country face

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no longer stop at the White Cliffs of Dover.

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Cross-border crime and terrorism, climate change -

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by working with our European partners,

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we can meet these challenges successfully.

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predicts that damage will be done to our economy if we leave.

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And the Bank of England Governor, Mark Carney,

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It would create a black hole in our public finances,

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meaning less money for our public services, like schools and the NHS.

:17:15.:17:19.

for more jobs, prosperity and security.

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As before, Dan, you now have five minutes

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to put your questions. Off you go.

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Thank you. As you know, the EU is not a settled dispensation, it is

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undergoing the Euro crisis, the Schengen crisis, migration problems,

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and it is evolving - what are the greatest risks of Remain? Well, you

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would keep your job! You seem to want to lose your job. I don't think

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that there are great risks of as remaining, because we have the best

:17:59.:18:02.

of both worlds. We are not in the eurozone, we have the pound as our

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currency, like eight other member states retain their currency, but we

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have unfettered access to the single market, and no other country... What

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can you tell us about budget contributions in ten or 15 years'

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time? I know what our budget contributions are today, not what is

:18:20.:18:29.

on the side of your bus. How many migrants might be resettled here?

:18:30.:18:32.

More came from outside of the EU than inside. Can you tell us how

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many bailouts we might be dragged into? Zero. So if we vote to stay

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in, even though we had a written guarantee in 2014 that which would

:18:41.:18:45.

not be dragged into a bailout, you trust them this time? You say that

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but you are a MEP. I am asking the questions. I think the ministers go

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to the Council of Ministers meetings, 97% of the votes won, we

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are not run by Eurocrats. You cannot answer any of the questions about

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how it might look if we stay in, so there are risks both ways. Is it

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safer to take back control to mitigate risks ourselves, or save a

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passing control to people who may not have our interests at heart? I

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do not know why you mistrust our European partners to such a great

:19:28.:19:31.

extent, because the challenges we face in the 21st century, climate

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change, cross-border crime, terrorism, those are challenges we

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share with our partners. Let me ask another question, in our country we

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have an example of a very high-minded, radical tradition that

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has been very good at dispersing power from oligarchs to the general

:19:47.:19:52.

population. As an heiress to the suffragettes and the chartists, do

:19:53.:19:56.

you feel comfortable backing an elitist, anti-democratic project

:19:57.:19:58.

where supreme power is wielded by people immune to the ballot box,

:19:59.:20:02.

where we pay more to wealthy French farmers than poor African farmers,

:20:03.:20:06.

and where we have inflicted joblessness and misery on tens of

:20:07.:20:10.

millions of people around the Mediterranean while Eurocrats like

:20:11.:20:13.

around in private jets? Does that seem comfortable as a person on the

:20:14.:20:18.

centre-left? I feel comfortable because I feel the EU has been a

:20:19.:20:22.

force for good in terms of employment protection, in a way a

:20:23.:20:26.

Conservative governments never has, comfortable because we elect our

:20:27.:20:30.

MEPs, and we elect a government that sends ministers to Brussels to have

:20:31.:20:34.

the final say on European regulations, and I feel comfortable

:20:35.:20:37.

as a British MP that over the vast majority of policy areas, whether

:20:38.:20:42.

health, housing, education, policing, we have confidence in

:20:43.:20:47.

those areas. So Lord Rose, the leader of the remainder campaign

:20:48.:20:51.

says Vote Leave for higher wages, Paddy Ashdown says we will get

:20:52.:20:55.

cheaper food, don't you think there are benefits to the majority of low

:20:56.:21:00.

and medium income people from having that boosting household income? On

:21:01.:21:05.

the contrary. So they are wrong? I think they are wrong, people in my

:21:06.:21:09.

constituency, low and middle incomes, they will suffer the most

:21:10.:21:17.

if manufacturing is eliminated, according to the Brexit Economist,

:21:18.:21:21.

the Bank of England governor has predicted a recession, and it will

:21:22.:21:24.

be people I reserve present who will be worse after macro, not people

:21:25.:21:30.

earning high income jobs. -- worse off. What is the strongest argument

:21:31.:21:36.

for voting Leave? I don't think there is one. None at all? This is

:21:37.:21:41.

one of the things that puzzles a lot of people trying to make up their

:21:42.:21:46.

mind. You do not think there are any benefits of staying in the EU. It is

:21:47.:21:51.

not my job to tell you them, but I can see them! People make an issue

:21:52.:21:54.

out of being so broad-minded and reasonable, but they struggle to see

:21:55.:21:59.

the other point of view at all. They cannot put themselves in the shoes

:22:00.:22:03.

of the people that the EU is not benefiting, which is the vast

:22:04.:22:06.

majority. There is a lot of scaremongering on your side about

:22:07.:22:10.

what might happen, because if we stay in, we will pretty much have

:22:11.:22:14.

the status quo, access to a market where we trade more than with the

:22:15.:22:19.

rest of the world, 44% of our exports go to the rest of the EU.

:22:20.:22:26.

Our trade unions represent four million people who think we should

:22:27.:22:30.

stay. I would rather this on to them than you. Do you think the European

:22:31.:22:34.

Union is a growing, successful scheme that people would join today

:22:35.:22:39.

if we were not already a member? Yes no? Yes. We ended there, I thank you

:22:40.:22:44.

both for that. So, this week both sides of this

:22:45.:22:46.

referendum have really The big set-piece TV

:22:47.:22:49.

grillings have begun. Senior Conservatives have been

:22:50.:22:52.

knocking lumps out of each other. And the Labour machine seems finally

:22:53.:22:55.

to have creaked into life. We'll be talking about

:22:56.:22:57.

all of that today. But, first, our Adam's been

:22:58.:22:59.

on the buses to see where this

:23:00.:23:01.

campaign is heading. There's livestock,

:23:02.:23:03.

there's Boris Johnson, and there's a man

:23:04.:23:05.

with a stuffed animal. Well, I suppose I could have

:23:06.:23:09.

accidentally bought the cow This was the week the referendum

:23:10.:23:12.

started to feel a bit more like a general election

:23:13.:23:21.

campaign, and not just because of

:23:22.:23:23.

the photo op. Vote Leave unveiled

:23:24.:23:25.

a spending commitment, cutting the VAT on domestic fuel,

:23:26.:23:27.

and a whole new immigration system - And here Boris told farmers

:23:28.:23:30.

that their subsidies would be safe, even if the UK left the EU -

:23:31.:23:36.

not everyone was convinced. There's no authority, no power,

:23:37.:23:39.

he's just a person that's walked in here

:23:40.:23:47.

and said what he's got to say. You could say it, I could

:23:48.:23:49.

say it, I can promise. First of all,

:23:50.:23:53.

where are your wellies? Are you getting a bit

:23:54.:23:58.

of grief from the farmers? No, there's a lot of

:23:59.:24:03.

support, a lot of support, and a lot of people

:24:04.:24:05.

coming up to me and saying, "We are with you,

:24:06.:24:08.

we want to come out." Some people, obviously, need

:24:09.:24:11.

reassurance about the subsidies, He left - without offering me

:24:12.:24:15.

a lift, so I caught the train, to Birmingham,

:24:16.:24:21.

and the Labour in campaign. But this week Jeremy Corbyn

:24:22.:24:23.

made a big speech after it emerged many Labour supporters didn't know

:24:24.:24:30.

the party was in favour of the EU. Do you think that was

:24:31.:24:34.

a great speech from JC? Jeremy's journey, if you like,

:24:35.:24:37.

which mirrors the journeys that many have made on this,

:24:38.:24:43.

he was a Eurosceptic in '75, and I think he's more powerful

:24:44.:24:49.

for that. Our journey took us to a building

:24:50.:24:54.

site to see investment from abroad that the Remain campaign claim

:24:55.:24:57.

is linked to our EU membership. Of course, with foreign

:24:58.:25:01.

money comes foreigners. How are you going to vote?

:25:02.:25:04.

No, come out. Why's that? Because of all the immigrants

:25:05.:25:08.

and things like that. Too many of them now

:25:09.:25:12.

coming into this country. Well, inevitably,

:25:13.:25:15.

I've ended up in one of these This week, the Remain campaign

:25:16.:25:18.

got some high visibility backing from foreign leaders -

:25:19.:25:22.

in Spain, the Netherlands, the former Foreign Secretary

:25:23.:25:24.

David Miliband. Some people might say

:25:25.:25:32.

that you live in America now, you are one of these high-profile

:25:33.:25:35.

foreigners coming over and lecturing us on what to do,

:25:36.:25:38.

what do you say to that? I'm a British voter,

:25:39.:25:41.

and I'm able to speak with passion about my own country,

:25:42.:25:44.

this is my home country, and although it's not where I live

:25:45.:25:46.

and work at the moment, I still feel that there is

:25:47.:25:49.

a real obligation to speak not just to the economic issues

:25:50.:25:52.

and the security issues, but also the foreign-policy

:25:53.:25:54.

issues, frankly. to ride on Britain Stronger

:25:55.:25:56.

in Europe's luxury coach, or hop onto Nigel Farage's

:25:57.:25:59.

double-decker. You wait ages for a referendum

:26:00.:26:02.

battle bus to come along, So, you heard Alan Johnson there

:26:03.:26:06.

defending Jeremy Corbyn's latest intervention in the referendum

:26:07.:26:12.

campaign, despite critics claiming that Labour hasn't exactly been

:26:13.:26:14.

full-throated in its campaign Well, the former Deputy Prime

:26:15.:26:17.

Minister and veteran Labour campaigner John Prescott

:26:18.:26:23.

seems to agree. He says in his newspaper column

:26:24.:26:26.

today that his party's message

:26:27.:26:28.

hasn't been getting through. John Prescott, good morning to you.

:26:29.:26:42.

Good morning. You say in your column that the Conservatives have hijacked

:26:43.:26:46.

the campaign, why has Labour allowed that to happen? It is a good point,

:26:47.:26:51.

I suggested in the paper that it seems almost to have been the

:26:52.:26:56.

strategy, blue on blue destroying the Tory party, hopefully, we will

:26:57.:27:00.

have to wait and see! We saw that in the broadcasts this morning, but

:27:01.:27:03.

where is Labour? It seems as if we are just enjoying the fight between

:27:04.:27:08.

them, but that is not putting our position. Labour maybe in the

:27:09.:27:14.

European Union, I support being in it, but we're not putting the

:27:15.:27:18.

arguments, and so when you see on a bus there, for example, on Boris's

:27:19.:27:24.

bus, ?350 million a week to put into the health service, this is from a

:27:25.:27:28.

government that reduced from 9% of GDP the average in Europe to 7%, and

:27:29.:27:33.

when they go on with a Labour politician in this way, Gisela, the

:27:34.:27:40.

Tories get the publicity, and they are in the background. We are not

:27:41.:27:43.

putting down the record of the Tories, they cannot do it because

:27:44.:27:48.

they are in a joint agreement on a bus about Europe. Let me just get

:27:49.:27:52.

another question in, as a result of everything you say, are you worried

:27:53.:27:57.

that you are failing to galvanise the Labour vote, do get it out to

:27:58.:28:03.

vote for Remain on the 23rd? Absolutely! Labour people want to

:28:04.:28:07.

hear Labour people talking about this government's record, whether

:28:08.:28:11.

they are four in or out, they carried out a record that is

:28:12.:28:15.

basically destroying our health service, housing was halved in

:28:16.:28:23.

billions, and now they say they will bring it. Michael Gove says all

:28:24.:28:25.

these terrible bankers, why didn't the vote with Labour to stop the

:28:26.:28:29.

bonuses for them? He didn't, he doesn't, they are hypocritical, we

:28:30.:28:33.

must show that Labour has strong values, we believe in social

:28:34.:28:36.

justice. When you have heard Tories talking about being social justice?!

:28:37.:28:44.

Look Labour, at Labour. Maybe Labour voters are confused, when you look

:28:45.:28:49.

at Jeremy Corbyn's pro EU speech, he spent as much time attacking the

:28:50.:28:54.

Tories and EU policies. Good on Jeremy! By Sea said the bad things

:28:55.:29:00.

predicted by Vote Leave work addicted by those who say we should

:29:01.:29:05.

remain, that all the scare stories were just myth-making and prophecies

:29:06.:29:10.

of doom. Is it any surprise that Labour voters are confused? Yes, but

:29:11.:29:14.

I do not think we should talk too much about what we should do, Jeremy

:29:15.:29:19.

is not a passionate man, he does not scream and shout like me, does he?!

:29:20.:29:24.

But to that extent, our people want to see, and this is what has

:29:25.:29:28.

happened to politics, people speak and do believe what they are saying!

:29:29.:29:34.

On both sides, Cameron's side, Boris Johnson, they are saying things that

:29:35.:29:39.

they did not do in government, which Labour oppose, and they are against

:29:40.:29:45.

social justice. We want a Labour Europe, different to them, not, we

:29:46.:29:49.

all believe in Europe, let's travel on the same bus! No wonder people

:29:50.:29:54.

are confused, get a strong Labour voice, and glad Jeremy said what he

:29:55.:29:57.

said, but point out what these beggars did in government!

:29:58.:30:03.

What about the confusion, even Damian McBride caught on Twitter

:30:04.:30:12.

offering policy tips to the Brexit campaign.

:30:13.:30:13.

Labour voters seem to be confused. I don't say that the Europe they

:30:14.:30:42.

want is the one I want. I took part in the last referendum. Despite the

:30:43.:30:45.

Tories not giving us a referendum and taking us in 1975 into the

:30:46.:30:52.

common market. I do believe, I was against a political Europe. In fact,

:30:53.:30:56.

I turned down a job with Jim Callaghan to be commissioner. On

:30:57.:31:00.

that ground, I thought that is where they were heading.

:31:01.:31:04.

I can't say it has stopped. What we argued then was for a wider Europe

:31:05.:31:13.

so we didn't move along the federal Europe case. That is still an

:31:14.:31:16.

argument to be fought for, I feel strongly, Labour does. I'm not sure

:31:17.:31:17.

the Tories pursued it. Sadiq Khan, tested Jarrell, Harriet

:31:18.:31:23.

Harman, they have appeared with Tories, including the Prime

:31:24.:31:28.

Minister. You refused, but last night you were appearing on Russia

:31:29.:31:36.

Today, a Putin propaganda channel, with Ken Livingstone, he has been

:31:37.:31:39.

suspended from your party, have you thought this through?

:31:40.:31:46.

Of course. I don't go in joint party operations, I never have. I didn't

:31:47.:31:51.

when I fought the Labour in 1975. I am the same. I am not saying they

:31:52.:31:56.

can't or shouldn't. We are saying the Labour vote is crucial and there

:31:57.:32:01.

is confusion as to the Labour position.

:32:02.:32:04.

Standing alongside Tory politicians, the survey has recently shown most

:32:05.:32:09.

of the speeches that come out of that are Tory spokesmen. 48% Tory,

:32:10.:32:17.

8% Labour. Why are we confused? Like in Scotland, if you appear alongside

:32:18.:32:28.

them bring on Europe, you better start telling people what you

:32:29.:32:29.

disagree about. Jeremy is trying to do that. I

:32:30.:32:32.

wouldn't do it, it adds to the confusion. If you can't get the

:32:33.:32:34.

Labour vote out in big numbers, are you worried you could lose this

:32:35.:32:36.

referendum? Yes. I want every Labour person in

:32:37.:32:41.

to vote. I fought on the last one thinking we would win on the

:32:42.:32:47.

referendum, and we lost, mainly it was particularly women, they get

:32:48.:32:51.

concerned about the long-term, their children, security, I think that is

:32:52.:32:56.

what defeated as in 1975. Seriously, I think it will go the other way. We

:32:57.:33:05.

need to be talking about the big powers. It is not Britain on its

:33:06.:33:11.

own, it is global powers, America, India, China, who will decide the

:33:12.:33:16.

issue about crime, immigration, security. We will be a little island

:33:17.:33:21.

shouting out, don't you recognise we are a big power. But we will have no

:33:22.:33:27.

say in a global decision. Jeremy Corbyn has hinted he might

:33:28.:33:31.

bring Ed Miliband into the Shadow Cabinet. What about you, are you

:33:32.:33:35.

available? I have done my bit for the Labour

:33:36.:33:41.

Party, except shouting on the side as I do. That is his decision. I

:33:42.:33:46.

want to see a united party. One of the things is people are confused

:33:47.:33:54.

because of these changes. Where does Labour stand? Start talking about it

:33:55.:34:02.

and be clearer on immigration. We have been cowards, the whole

:34:03.:34:05.

political establishment has avoided the argument. That is a global

:34:06.:34:13.

solution. There will be more migration coming from African

:34:14.:34:17.

countries which have no water or food because of climate change. This

:34:18.:34:22.

is not a temporary problem but a global problem and needs a global

:34:23.:34:25.

solution and not a little country on the side shouting and staying out of

:34:26.:34:29.

it. Thank you.

:34:30.:34:31.

Now, even if plenty folks are still undecided,

:34:32.:34:33.

you might think most Mps will have made their mind up as to how they'll

:34:34.:34:37.

It's only two-and-a-half weeks to go, after all.

:34:38.:34:40.

But, according to our research, there at still 26 undecided Tory

:34:41.:34:43.

Well, we're going to reduce that number by one today,

:34:44.:34:46.

as the Conservative MP Johnny Mercer is here to reveal for the first time

:34:47.:34:50.

What is your decision? The first thing to say is, like a lot of

:34:51.:35:04.

people, being out on the doors of Plymouth, we are disappointed by the

:35:05.:35:07.

level of debate. Even today.

:35:08.:35:10.

What is your decision? It is important to get this across.

:35:11.:35:17.

But tell me, leave or remain? Two Government ministers saying the

:35:18.:35:20.

Government is not telling the truth about the economy which has upset

:35:21.:35:23.

people. In terms of this referendum, it is

:35:24.:35:31.

clear we should remain, not a single economic expert has come out and

:35:32.:35:35.

said this will do things for our economy, our jobs.

:35:36.:35:38.

If you look at what this garment has delivered in places like Plymouth

:35:39.:35:42.

around jobs, the single biggest factor in improving people's life

:35:43.:35:47.

chances, it has done good things. It is the economic case.

:35:48.:35:51.

And a security case. Why do the people of Plymouth seem not

:35:52.:35:56.

convinced quite a recent polls say they were largely for Leave.

:35:57.:36:00.

A poll I have been running has come out and said that.

:36:01.:36:04.

When this debate started, I said this was an issue, not the issue. It

:36:05.:36:10.

has become clear. I did not think we would vote to leave the EU. This is

:36:11.:36:16.

a vote of singular importance to this country. People have begun to

:36:17.:36:20.

forget we need to get on with Government on June 24.

:36:21.:36:24.

That may be the case. But do you think you can win on the economic

:36:25.:36:31.

arguments? With the economic arguments, there are single clear

:36:32.:36:34.

points. On the economy, the people who

:36:35.:36:41.

always feel the worst affected, it is always the most vulnerable.

:36:42.:36:45.

Always those who file like a desperate struggle. My area of

:36:46.:36:49.

Plymouth is still categorised by the EU as a deprived area in parts. They

:36:50.:36:54.

cannot take that shock. It is OK for others to say we can go to this

:36:55.:36:59.

nirvana. The truth is the same people are affected.

:37:00.:37:04.

Why do 74% in your constituency say...

:37:05.:37:07.

That is a very small poll. But it is indicative of the mood,

:37:08.:37:13.

74%. People will feel more passionate

:37:14.:37:15.

about leaving because for some people this is a single issue. They

:37:16.:37:19.

have been looking for a reason to come out and leave the EU. I think

:37:20.:37:24.

the vast majority do not want to leave. You are looking at where we

:37:25.:37:30.

are now it is not perfect. We are on this trajectory. Do we throw it away

:37:31.:37:35.

for a nirvana no one can quite lay their hands on. Could the most

:37:36.:37:41.

vulnerable in the UK who rely on a job, on the NHS, public service

:37:42.:37:45.

funding, could they withstand that shock? I can look them in the eye

:37:46.:37:50.

and say, I went this based on something that sounded like a great

:37:51.:37:54.

idea but I could not go for it. It has loads of problems.

:37:55.:37:58.

Why take so long? Thinking about Europe is not something I got into

:37:59.:38:01.

politics today about. I have spoken to a lot of people. It

:38:02.:38:07.

would be naive to suggest there are reasons why people want to leave. On

:38:08.:38:13.

balance, it is a clear case. Society is judged by how it looks after its

:38:14.:38:18.

vulnerable. We have to remain part of the EU to continue to do that. It

:38:19.:38:23.

isn't perfect. Thank you for coming on and telling

:38:24.:38:26.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:38:27.:38:33.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead, when we'll be

:38:34.:38:37.

talking about the referendum and the TV debates with the veteran

:38:38.:38:39.

Conservative backbencher David Davis.

:38:40.:38:40.

First, though, the Sunday Politics where you are.

:38:41.:38:50.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:51.:38:52.

Tomorrow the newly elected Assembly has its first full

:38:53.:38:55.

day of business and - for the first time in its modern

:38:56.:38:57.

incarnation - there'll be an Opposition to

:38:58.:38:59.

But has peace broken out between the two Executive parties?

:39:00.:39:06.

I hope that this week has shown that we are confident in our decisions.

:39:07.:39:13.

We're getting out there and making those decisions and moving forward.

:39:14.:39:17.

There is a recognition that we have to work together.

:39:18.:39:21.

But will the new leader of the Opposition ruin the honeymoon?

:39:22.:39:23.

I'll be asking Mike Nesbitt how he sees his role over

:39:24.:39:26.

And with me throughout, journalists Sam McBride

:39:27.:39:29.

The third consecutive Stormont mandate gets down to business this

:39:30.:39:36.

week with a full agenda - the first since last

:39:37.:39:38.

As well as new faces on the benches there's also a new structure

:39:39.:39:42.

But already this week we've seen a DUP minister visit

:39:43.:39:47.

an Irish language school and a Sinn Fein Minister

:39:48.:39:51.

lift the lifetime ban on gay blood donors.

:39:52.:39:53.

So has the good weather improved the mood around the Executive table?

:39:54.:39:59.

I welcome very much the fact that Peter went there. It was very good

:40:00.:40:09.

to see a DUP minister recognised how important a contribution Irish

:40:10.:40:12.

climate education makes to our children. I think also Michelle's

:40:13.:40:16.

decision which has been supported by the executive in relation to the

:40:17.:40:23.

lifting of the ban on gay blood is very welcome story for the LGBT

:40:24.:40:28.

community. But I do think all this symbolises the fact that since the

:40:29.:40:32.

agreement in November of last year, there is a recognition both within

:40:33.:40:38.

the DUP and Sinn Fein that we have to work together and we have to be

:40:39.:40:43.

seen to be giving leadership to everybody within society. We have to

:40:44.:40:46.

show people that things are going to be different from the last term and

:40:47.:40:51.

I think we are beginning to see that is taking shape.

:40:52.:40:53.

We indicated that we wanted to get on with the job of governing and

:40:54.:40:56.

think that we are confident enough to do all that they hope that this

:40:57.:41:00.

week has shown that we are confident in our decisions, we're getting out

:41:01.:41:03.

there, we are making those decisions and we're moving forward.

:41:04.:41:08.

In terms of the decision on reversing the blood ban, were you

:41:09.:41:11.

happy with that? I was because we always said that

:41:12.:41:15.

such a decision should be based on science and based on medical

:41:16.:41:20.

evidence and that medical evidence was there. Michelle came with the

:41:21.:41:23.

evidence to others and I was quite happy to endorse the decision that

:41:24.:41:28.

they suggested. If Simon had the chance to deal with it for the

:41:29.:41:34.

election he would have done so. Is there choreography going on here

:41:35.:41:36.

between the DUP and Sinn Fein because yesterday we had the Irish

:41:37.:41:41.

climate school and we had Martin McGuinness at the Somme. Is that how

:41:42.:41:45.

you are working together? I don't think there is choreography

:41:46.:41:48.

toll. Peter is new into the department and has been visiting a

:41:49.:41:52.

number of schools. He has been to his old Grammar School in Banga,

:41:53.:41:57.

he's been to a primary school and he was at an Irish language school and

:41:58.:42:00.

I estimate you will be many other schools in the coming months as

:42:01.:42:05.

well. Listening to that is the first

:42:06.:42:11.

Leader of the Opposition in half a century, Mike Nesbitt. Good morning.

:42:12.:42:14.

Are you planning to spoil the party for them?

:42:15.:42:18.

No. We are about scrutiny and that is not the same necessarily a

:42:19.:42:22.

criticism. If you scrutinise and you think it is good you should say so.

:42:23.:42:26.

For example, I very much welcome the lifting of the blood ban. I would

:42:27.:42:30.

also welcome Peter we're going to the Irish language school. I did

:42:31.:42:40.

that a few months ago. And I'm determined to engage and understand

:42:41.:42:44.

better why those who an Irish language actually wanted.

:42:45.:42:47.

Those two examples that we've talked about already and of course Martin

:42:48.:42:52.

McGuinness travelling to the Somme, they put you on the back foot, don't

:42:53.:42:56.

they? Because it looks like the DUP and Sinn Fein are very purposeful

:42:57.:43:00.

and united and strategic. They have had nine years and now

:43:01.:43:04.

they have an endorsement from the electorate and that it's fine. But

:43:05.:43:07.

we are about delivery and scrutinising the delivery from

:43:08.:43:13.

Government. We did try to fight the campaign for the last Assembly

:43:14.:43:16.

election on lack of delivery in terms of the 80 million for property

:43:17.:43:19.

and all the rest unless not go over that again. This is a new mandate.

:43:20.:43:23.

We will have a programme for Government eventually and our job

:43:24.:43:26.

will be to scrutinise that programme and its delivery. As I say, when it

:43:27.:43:31.

is delivered properly, we will give praise and when it is not we will

:43:32.:43:33.

criticise. Dust before we get onto the wider

:43:34.:43:38.

issues I want pick up on that Martin McGuinness trip. Due welcome the

:43:39.:43:42.

fact he travelled there this week? I think you did the right thing and

:43:43.:43:46.

I think he did it in the right way because had he delayed his trip to

:43:47.:43:50.

go on the 1st of July, it would've been controversial and it would have

:43:51.:43:54.

dominated the centenary anniversary commemorations. So I think he did do

:43:55.:43:58.

the right thing. Just as I believe I was right to go with some of my

:43:59.:44:04.

colleagues down to Dublin a you days ago to the cemetery for an Easter

:44:05.:44:08.

centenary event commemorating the British soldiers. Many of whom are

:44:09.:44:15.

Irishmen, or from the Ireland and died in the rebellion.

:44:16.:44:17.

He says he is demonstrating sensitive and strong leadership.

:44:18.:44:21.

To you agree? I think in terms of what he did, that was the right

:44:22.:44:25.

thing to do. I am more than happy to say that that is the right thing

:44:26.:44:28.

that he did. What about this concept of

:44:29.:44:31.

collective responsibility? We talked about it in the last mandate when it

:44:32.:44:35.

clearly was not there. And for a large part of that mandate your

:44:36.:44:39.

party was around the executive table. It seems that the DUP and

:44:40.:44:42.

Sinn Fein are happy you are not there now and they seem to have

:44:43.:44:47.

signed up completely to the concept of collective responsibility. They

:44:48.:44:50.

are inextricably linked and bounced together in Government.

:44:51.:44:53.

I think what we had in the past two mandates was nine years when you had

:44:54.:44:58.

by all four parties in Government but actually, the smaller parties

:44:59.:45:01.

being bossed by the two bigger ones and the back that we now have the

:45:02.:45:06.

two parties, themselves alone in Government, is a more honest, open

:45:07.:45:10.

and transparent way to do business. This delivery will be by Sinn Fein

:45:11.:45:15.

and the DUP. And we're now and shackled. We have 16 MLAs who will

:45:16.:45:18.

not be shackled by the fact that once I sat at the executive table

:45:19.:45:23.

and has maybe put his hand up for a policy that the others want to

:45:24.:45:27.

criticise. We are unshackled now and we can say exactly what we think

:45:28.:45:31.

about what the executive is doing. What is opposition going to look

:45:32.:45:35.

like? You of the largest party in opposition but are you going solo?

:45:36.:45:40.

Is this about the Ulster Unionist Party's opposition strategy with 16

:45:41.:45:44.

members, or is it about forming a united opposition with the other

:45:45.:45:48.

biggest party in opposition, namely the SDLP?

:45:49.:45:54.

It is not a secret that we've had discussions with the SDLP and we

:45:55.:45:57.

will continue to have discussions with the SDLP but we will not be

:45:58.:46:01.

rushed into anything. It has taken the DUP and Sinn Fein nine years to

:46:02.:46:05.

get their relationship to the point where you are able to say they have

:46:06.:46:08.

got their act together so we're going to take time to see how we go.

:46:09.:46:13.

We have formed a team of spokespeople across the whole piece.

:46:14.:46:18.

We expect the SDLP will do the same thing. But at the Goodwood make

:46:19.:46:21.

sense of the various spokespeople started looking to see there are

:46:22.:46:26.

areas where we can cooperate and develop alternative policies.

:46:27.:46:30.

You would like it to be a joined up approach? Would you be the Leader of

:46:31.:46:35.

the Opposition and would Colum Eastwood be the deputy leader?

:46:36.:46:38.

That is the sort of line which which is not helpful.

:46:39.:46:42.

It is not bad from your point of view but maybe not by him.

:46:43.:46:46.

I have gone out of my way to say to him that you are the leader of the

:46:47.:46:50.

SDLP. You're not the deputy leader or anything. If we're going to work

:46:51.:46:52.

together it will be as coal equals on this.

:46:53.:46:57.

I many times have you sat down and talked to Colum Eastwood about the

:46:58.:47:02.

possibilities? What is the plan? How close do you think you are due being

:47:03.:47:08.

able to sign up to a joint approach? We're not discussing signing up to

:47:09.:47:11.

anything formal at this time. We have the spokespeople hopefully

:47:12.:47:14.

starting to talk to each other. I will continue to build on a

:47:15.:47:18.

relationship with Colum Eastwood. We sat together for a while with the

:47:19.:47:23.

mandate. I like his style. I like Ricky is going and I like back to 30

:47:24.:47:28.

wants Northern Ireland to work. His motivation for that is different

:47:29.:47:31.

from mine obviously because he aspires to a united Ireland but that

:47:32.:47:36.

motivation is no bar to working with him to ensure that the health

:47:37.:47:40.

service gets fixed, that we create more high earning jobs, that we do

:47:41.:47:44.

all the things that we aspire that says Northern Ireland does actually

:47:45.:47:47.

work. Let's be honest. Wouldn't a combined

:47:48.:47:52.

opposition speak with a much longer boys spent two positions of 16 and

:47:53.:47:56.

13 respectively. -- much louder voice. If you're

:47:57.:48:01.

saying I want to give your alternative logic says you want to

:48:02.:48:05.

try and present a cross community alternative. So I will aspire to

:48:06.:48:10.

that but what I am saying is we will not be rushed or pushed into it.

:48:11.:48:14.

But you need to get on with it because tomorrow is the first full

:48:15.:48:16.

day of proper business. They know is that what they are

:48:17.:48:19.

doing and already the opposition is not quite clear.

:48:20.:48:23.

It is only been a number of days. The DUP and Sinn Fein have an

:48:24.:48:26.

working on their relationship for nine years. So I think we can take a

:48:27.:48:30.

little bit of time to get this right.

:48:31.:48:34.

Let's talk about the committees. A lot of the opposition, the opposing

:48:35.:48:38.

should take face. There was a real possibility in this mandate that if

:48:39.:48:42.

the DUP and Sinn Fein work as closely together as they seem to be

:48:43.:48:46.

suggesting they want to, and controversial issues will be dealt

:48:47.:48:50.

with in private between themselves and by the time it filters down to

:48:51.:48:54.

the committees it is already been agreed.

:48:55.:48:56.

That is speculation. We will have to wait and see.

:48:57.:49:01.

It is informed speculation. I tell you what is possible. The DUP and

:49:02.:49:06.

Sinn Fein being themselves alone in Government reduction it work better

:49:07.:49:09.

than what we have had over the last nine years and if you believe in

:49:10.:49:14.

country first, party second, which I do, then what I have done, that is

:49:15.:49:19.

the result, is a good thing. Even if it is not a great thing for the

:49:20.:49:23.

Ulster Unionist Party. If these parties deliver positive outcomes

:49:24.:49:26.

for our people in the way they have not done over the last two mandates,

:49:27.:49:31.

of course that is a good thing. Even by saying that you're shooting

:49:32.:49:34.

yourself in the foot. You're saying is probably better the people in

:49:35.:49:36.

Northern Ireland for Sinn Fein and the DUP to work together towards

:49:37.:49:40.

some kind of agreed policy for the benefit of everybody in the country

:49:41.:49:45.

and pushing you to one side. That is effectively what you are suggesting.

:49:46.:49:49.

That is the mandate they were given and our job is to scrutinise how

:49:50.:49:52.

they deliver on that. It might be difficult to do that

:49:53.:49:55.

with the committee system the way it is because you have intentionally

:49:56.:49:59.

committees were a DUP chair and step easy chair could protect a Sinn Fein

:50:00.:50:04.

minister and vice versa. I cheer for the last four years. Like all the

:50:05.:50:11.

other committees there are 11 members. Four of them were from the

:50:12.:50:15.

DUP and three from Sinn Fein so if they wanted to at any point they

:50:16.:50:20.

could have closed down. It was different in the previous mandate

:50:21.:50:22.

because they were not working so closely together. With respect,

:50:23.:50:26.

there were times in that committee where you

:50:27.:50:27.

could see them eyeballing each other across the table and it was a clear

:50:28.:50:32.

signal, let's close this down. And it may well be that happens much

:50:33.:50:37.

more in the new mandate and the poor Sinn Fein and the DUP together have

:50:38.:50:41.

a majority on every single committee including your own committee.

:50:42.:50:45.

Yes. It is the same again. Four and three. Seven of the 11 on the

:50:46.:50:49.

executive office committee. If they want to close it down on

:50:50.:50:52.

committees they don't stop that scrutiny they can do that

:50:53.:50:54.

effectively. You are to this. That is the mandate

:50:55.:50:58.

that they have been given and the committees are not the only way we

:50:59.:51:01.

will bring forward switch me of another nation. Would do it in the

:51:02.:51:05.

chamber, media, whatever means we think is appropriate.

:51:06.:51:12.

Would he put together some kind of programme for opposition which

:51:13.:51:15.

people can compare and contrast? We've got a document now where we've

:51:16.:51:19.

been circulated with a draft framework for Government.

:51:20.:51:25.

What you are talking about is the second document in a series of

:51:26.:51:29.

three. What they promise was a framework and that was supposed to

:51:30.:51:32.

be ready for the 6th of May and use over two weeks to produce a draft

:51:33.:51:35.

programme for Government which should now be finished and out for

:51:36.:51:40.

consultation leading to the final... They publish the first one and that

:51:41.:51:47.

is the framework. They will consult on that then draw up a draft

:51:48.:51:50.

programme for Government, then consult on that and then finally at

:51:51.:51:53.

the end of the year publish a document. You read paragraph 61 of

:51:54.:51:58.

the agreement and they have failed to deliver on that agreement.

:51:59.:52:05.

People at home might think, that -- had on them. A lot of people want

:52:06.:52:09.

things done differently so if they manage to get their act together

:52:10.:52:12.

they may agree with you that it could be better for everybody in

:52:13.:52:15.

Northern Ireland. If that is the case, you are stuffed.

:52:16.:52:20.

They are putting a lot of store on this so-called fresh start agreement

:52:21.:52:23.

on what I'm saying to you, one of the core commitments in paragraph 61

:52:24.:52:27.

is already a clear failure. They have failed to deliver what they

:52:28.:52:32.

promise. In terms of an alternative programme for Government be not only

:52:33.:52:36.

published a manifesto ahead of the 5th of May, we published eight other

:52:37.:52:39.

documents, a vision document and seven specific policy documents so

:52:40.:52:43.

the bones of an alternative programme for Government are already

:52:44.:52:45.

there. Before I bring in Colum Eastwood and

:52:46.:52:53.

Sam, you being quite magnanimous and we will see how that pans out in the

:52:54.:52:57.

chamber when you get the wind in your back is the official Leader of

:52:58.:53:00.

the Opposition but someone watching who is a young Unionist who fancies

:53:01.:53:06.

a career in politics and can't decide between Ulster Unionists and

:53:07.:53:10.

the DUP, why would he or she choose the Ulster Unionists over the DUP

:53:11.:53:14.

with a DUP is in Government, seems to be unassailable Andras the having

:53:15.:53:17.

to accept that if they do a good job that is grand by me?

:53:18.:53:21.

If you That is what all editions are all

:53:22.:53:30.

about. We have a credo ended his country

:53:31.:53:31.

first, party second that individual bird.

:53:32.:53:34.

Maybe you need to rethink that? Without that you would not have the

:53:35.:53:39.

Belfast agreement in 1998. Let whomever weather DUP were on those

:53:40.:53:44.

big the Asians. They were on the other side of the crash barriers. We

:53:45.:53:50.

have done is a game by creating an official opposition. It is the right

:53:51.:53:56.

time. Is not great for the Ulster Unionist Party.

:53:57.:54:01.

Since 1998 you're gone down and down and down and dwindled and you said

:54:02.:54:04.

yourself you went back to 16 seeds which could not be considered to be

:54:05.:54:10.

successful. -- seats. It is over four years since we've

:54:11.:54:14.

had 16 MLAs up at Stormont so our capacity to do the job is greatly

:54:15.:54:19.

enhanced even if we did not grow the numbers in the way I had hoped.

:54:20.:54:23.

Thank you. Stay with us because I want to ring in camp two and Sam.

:54:24.:54:36.

What you make of the thing to back way things are shaping up between

:54:37.:54:39.

this cohesive approach between the DUP and Sinn Fein and then, and as

:54:40.:54:47.

yet unclear, opposition? I don't believe it is a cohesive

:54:48.:54:52.

approach by the DUP and Sinn Fein. It appears to be much more amicable.

:54:53.:54:57.

It looked very nice this week in various nice things were done in a

:54:58.:55:00.

nice way but at the bottom about what we have is the DUP saying it

:55:01.:55:05.

will be our way or no way. And Sinn Fein for pragmatic and no doubt

:55:06.:55:14.

magnanimous and reasons which mean because they have invested so much

:55:15.:55:18.

in getting into a peace process and maintaining it, have decided to

:55:19.:55:22.

allow that to pass. There are a lot of people who think this has only

:55:23.:55:26.

gone as far as it has an done as well as it has because Sinn Fein

:55:27.:55:30.

have button-down lip and there are a lot of people in Sinn Fein who are

:55:31.:55:37.

not happy about that. As I imagine there are people in Mike Nesbitt's

:55:38.:55:42.

support base who are not happy he has been as magnanimous as he has

:55:43.:55:46.

been today. This is the difficulty for both those parties. The

:55:47.:55:49.

difficulty of politics here in general that if you try and make

:55:50.:55:53.

peace, if you tried about in your lip you are offending people in your

:55:54.:55:57.

own support base. It is intriguing situation because

:55:58.:55:59.

were so many years we have had people saying we want constructive

:56:00.:56:04.

politics. We want people to work together and then people begin to

:56:05.:56:08.

work together and it throws up new challenges and difficulties.

:56:09.:56:13.

I think people could be forgiven for being confused because we coming out

:56:14.:56:17.

of an election winner DUP were saying vote for us to stop Martin

:56:18.:56:20.

McGuinness said they were pushing that message themselves. Now they

:56:21.:56:25.

have changed that and realise they are to work together and they have

:56:26.:56:28.

been forced to do that much closer than they would have had to do if

:56:29.:56:31.

there was not an opposition facing them. I think Mike Nesbitt has

:56:32.:56:36.

struck gold with a good tone in that there is a lot of criticism of the

:56:37.:56:41.

SDLP and the Ulster Unionists that they are just opposed to everything

:56:42.:56:44.

and they need to see this as a long game. They are in opposition for

:56:45.:56:47.

five years. There will be issues where they oppose the Government

:56:48.:56:51.

can't just be seen as Jim Allister with extra seas. They need to be

:56:52.:56:54.

able to present something which could form a Government at some

:56:55.:56:58.

stage and I think they are wise actually to work together where they

:56:59.:57:01.

need to but also to keep their separate identities are not be in a

:57:02.:57:04.

position where something happens in the SDLP over a macho support --

:57:05.:57:13.

over a March, and Mike Nesbitt is having to answer for it, and vice

:57:14.:57:22.

versa with Colum Eastwood. Can they keep them all the line?

:57:23.:57:27.

They have that situation over the community centre where the DUP do

:57:28.:57:30.

not want public funding to go towards that because the names of

:57:31.:57:33.

two IRA men from the 1920s would be on the gates. Is that an example of

:57:34.:57:41.

the kind of events that could derail the collective responsibility around

:57:42.:57:47.

the executive table? Collected responsibility and the

:57:48.:57:50.

ability to make common cause in the opposition are rule depended on

:57:51.:57:54.

events and a series of events coming up now which are called the marching

:57:55.:57:58.

season. It will test Mike and it would text -- I was fascinated by

:57:59.:58:06.

the thought that two parties in opposition, who may be able to

:58:07.:58:11.

proceed in a way and build links between each other, or maybe will be

:58:12.:58:16.

torn apart by the same things that have torn apart politics here

:58:17.:58:19.

overall these years. Nonetheless it is progress.

:58:20.:58:23.

I did not think it was possible and did not think they should go into

:58:24.:58:28.

opposition. Events pose big challenges but if

:58:29.:58:34.

you believe in it and you wanted to work you will get through events.

:58:35.:58:39.

If you hold your nerve through the marching season.

:58:40.:58:44.

I think a lot of people say that one of the problems previously when the

:58:45.:58:48.

Ulster Unionists were at the heart of Government where the

:58:49.:58:50.

interpersonal relationships which were not great. I am confident I can

:58:51.:58:54.

build a good relationship with Colum Eastwood.

:58:55.:58:57.

We will see and we will give a close eye.

:58:58.:59:01.

I'm you will. Thank you very much. We will hear more in a moment or two

:59:02.:59:05.

but let's pause and take a look back at the political week in 60 seconds.

:59:06.:59:14.

As the football teams from those parts of the island got ready for

:59:15.:59:18.

the euro is the Deputy First Minister was also on foreign soil as

:59:19.:59:22.

he visited World War I battlefields. I am out of my comfort zone here

:59:23.:59:26.

today. But that is what leaders do. I think if you are not -- a leader

:59:27.:59:40.

you have to lead from the front. 100 anniversary of the battle

:59:41.:59:45.

doctrine. The new Health Minister lifted the lifetime ban on gay men

:59:46.:59:48.

donating blood here. I have been opposed for eight days.

:59:49.:59:52.

I took the decision based on the evidence I had on front of being

:59:53.:59:56.

will stop a comedian to go on a politician as they battle to win

:59:57.:59:59.

hearts and minds over Europe. What signal does it sends to the

:00:00.:00:06.

world? Surely humanity moves forward by working together not by putting

:00:07.:00:09.

up more borders? Do you want to be able to decide the

:00:10.:00:13.

laws of your own country by electing politicians?

:00:14.:00:24.

Let's have a final word. Just a little flavour there of Thursday

:00:25.:00:29.

night's debate between Eddie Izzard and Sammy Wilson. Does that can

:00:30.:00:32.

exchange help people to make their minds up as an off a lot of people I

:00:33.:00:35.

meet say they still cannot work out which way to vote?

:00:36.:00:39.

Alternately that probably helps the remaining camp because when it comes

:00:40.:00:42.

to the bit in the final week of the election, as we saw in Scotland,

:00:43.:00:47.

people are more likely to plump for the evil they know.

:00:48.:00:51.

Do you agree with that broadly? I thought it was great to see him

:00:52.:00:59.

and Sammy having to be polite, faced with a man wearing lipstick and a

:01:00.:01:02.

pink beret. I think you did not know what to

:01:03.:01:05.

make of him. The claims never to oppose them before.

:01:06.:01:10.

John Major got stuck into the Brexit campaigners calling them deceitful

:01:11.:01:13.

and squalid. And that is what makes most people's

:01:14.:01:16.

minds are piping. Look at the people who are for each side and go for

:01:17.:01:21.

which way. The Brexit group do not appeal to an off a lot of people

:01:22.:01:25.

that the debate here is largely decided by original politics. Most

:01:26.:01:29.

Nationalists will bow to stay in and most Unionists narrowly perhaps will

:01:30.:01:32.

vote come out. A final word? The Government has

:01:33.:01:37.

been getting involved in the last week or so. They are alarmed about

:01:38.:01:40.

this. The group persuade those nationalistic, or Unionists could

:01:41.:01:45.

act against it. Thank you very much indeed. That is

:01:46.:01:46.

it from all David Davis will talk to is about

:01:47.:02:06.

the snoopers' charter, but that interview with John Major on the

:02:07.:02:11.

Andrew Marr Show, earlier we showed you in talking about the deceit of

:02:12.:02:15.

the Leave campaign, this is in talking about Boris Johnson's

:02:16.:02:21.

prospect of leading the party. If they continued to divide the

:02:22.:02:23.

Conservative Party, as they are doing at the present time, and if

:02:24.:02:28.

Boris has the laudable ambition, because it is laudable to become

:02:29.:02:32.

Prime Minister, he will find, if he achieves that, that he will not have

:02:33.:02:36.

the loyalty of the party he divided. Iain Duncan Smith was serially

:02:37.:02:42.

disloyal in the 1990s. When he became leader, he was surprised that

:02:43.:02:45.

no-one was loyal to him. Boris should learn from that.

:02:46.:02:51.

What was the purpose of his interview this morning?

:02:52.:02:58.

I guess number ten asked him to do it, and being a loyal supporter of a

:02:59.:03:01.

Tory party, he would do that. I guess he was trying to reduce the

:03:02.:03:07.

credibility of the Leave campaign's claim. Some irony when you consider

:03:08.:03:12.

the most incredible claim has been from George Osborne, the Treasury,

:03:13.:03:17.

in terms of his forecasts, and even what John Major said, I was his last

:03:18.:03:22.

defender in the Commons, the numbers bandying around.

:03:23.:03:28.

He said for example this controversial ?350 million was one

:03:29.:03:35.

third of that. That is half the net contribution. He said industries

:03:36.:03:40.

would face 10% levies. The car industry would, but most of

:03:41.:03:45.

the others would be up to 5%. He was not being very

:03:46.:03:48.

straightforward with the numbers. Were you surprised how personal the

:03:49.:03:52.

attacks on Boris well. We know he has long hated Iain

:03:53.:03:56.

Duncan Smith. Understandable. But saying in the

:03:57.:04:04.

hands of Michael Gove, Boris Johnson, IDS, the NHS would be like

:04:05.:04:09.

a hamster in a room with a pattern. He was trashing the Tory brand.

:04:10.:04:17.

A harsh attack. I don't think it was very wise.

:04:18.:04:21.

One of the problems both sides of this campaign have had is it is too

:04:22.:04:24.

personalised. The public don't like it. After the

:04:25.:04:30.

23rd, we had to pull the party together.

:04:31.:04:34.

With that sort of attack, it is a bad idea.

:04:35.:04:37.

Sam. Let me put it this way. Whatever the result, things for the

:04:38.:04:42.

Tories will never be the same again for the rest of this Parliament.

:04:43.:04:48.

It will be very hard. Clearly with a working majority of about 18, hard

:04:49.:04:53.

to get contentious the station through, the biggest area of danger

:04:54.:04:58.

for David Cameron. He will be a zombie Prime Minister, he can't get

:04:59.:05:03.

it through the Commons, and the Lords is a different matter where

:05:04.:05:07.

legislation will get stuck. You saw the kinds of things in the

:05:08.:05:11.

Queen's Speech. With the exception of the data Bill, I can't see any of

:05:12.:05:17.

the bills will be that radical when they get passed into law. So I think

:05:18.:05:21.

there will be a successful coup after June the 23rd, that seems

:05:22.:05:24.

unlikely. Even if it is a vote to Leave.

:05:25.:05:31.

That could change things. I think David Cameron would go within his

:05:32.:05:37.

own time. In the case of a remain vote, there are up to 20 MPs who

:05:38.:05:41.

bitterly disliked David Cameron. I don't think that number has

:05:42.:05:47.

dramatically increased solely as a result of the referendum campaign.

:05:48.:05:51.

There is a safety valve, the leadership election which will

:05:52.:05:55.

happen possibly sooner than you think.

:05:56.:06:00.

There may not be an immediate coup even if the vote is to Remain.

:06:01.:06:06.

The keyword or words, zombie parliaments, there are anything

:06:07.:06:11.

between 20-50 MPs deeply disillusioned with the Prime

:06:12.:06:13.

Minister. They have a taste for revolt. The

:06:14.:06:19.

Government majority is derisory. This Government could now find it

:06:20.:06:24.

very difficult to get anything major through this potential zombie

:06:25.:06:29.

parliament. That is absolutely true. On the

:06:30.:06:33.

matter of a coup, there are a number of mischief makers within the Tory

:06:34.:06:37.

ranks who don't mind if a coup succeeds or fails, they feel the

:06:38.:06:40.

Labour opposition is so weak, they have the luxury of doing this.

:06:41.:06:47.

I think the numbers are lower than you think. I would say 20, not more

:06:48.:06:53.

than that. That is enough, given the Government

:06:54.:06:56.

majority. These are the ones that hate the

:06:57.:07:00.

regime as it were. You have another group. The problem

:07:01.:07:06.

is not if there is a Brexit victory, but if there is a very narrow Remain

:07:07.:07:09.

victory. A lot of those wanting Brexit will

:07:10.:07:16.

feel they have been cheated. The ?9 million spent on the

:07:17.:07:20.

leaflets, all of that, they will be difficult to manage.

:07:21.:07:24.

This is a Government that has found it hard to get its budget through.

:07:25.:07:29.

Almost unprecedented, it lost most of the major parts of the budget

:07:30.:07:34.

unveiled in March. Would it not be even more difficult if it is a vote

:07:35.:07:42.

to Remain, but small, to get its business through except the

:07:43.:07:44.

noncontroversial. To say it is difficult for the

:07:45.:07:51.

future is a description of the past ten months, they had two H a great

:07:52.:07:57.

answer their planned pensions reform amongst other things.

:07:58.:08:02.

The potential American trade deal. Most recently, and prior to the

:08:03.:08:07.

referendum. Things will become difficult

:08:08.:08:10.

afterwards. David Cameron will end up leading my kind of Government, it

:08:11.:08:15.

won't do very much. The basic strategic stuff. What the founders

:08:16.:08:24.

in America intended. The one bit of optimism for the Tories, it picks up

:08:25.:08:29.

on David's point, I wouldn't underestimate how many Tory MPs want

:08:30.:08:34.

is referendum done with, that includes absolutely committed

:08:35.:08:36.

leaders who don't think much of David Cameron.

:08:37.:08:42.

Interviewing Johnny Mercer, he wants it over, you can tell from his

:08:43.:08:45.

demeanour. And he wouldn't look at me but there

:08:46.:08:51.

may be another reason! We don't need to go that!

:08:52.:08:55.

Let me ask you. Given the kind of Government our panel are talking

:08:56.:08:58.

about, it is already difficult for the Government to get things done.

:08:59.:09:02.

Even more difficult after the referendum I would suggest if it is

:09:03.:09:07.

Remain by a small majority. Does that give you hope for your

:09:08.:09:11.

continued opposition to the investigatory Powers act for the

:09:12.:09:17.

police and intelligence services? Taking up on the American view, look

:09:18.:09:23.

what happened with tax credits. There were about 40 people opposing

:09:24.:09:30.

it, only two voting against it. It went to the House of Lords, got

:09:31.:09:34.

knocked back. The Government knew there was a looming rebellion.

:09:35.:09:37.

That will be the message of the future.

:09:38.:09:40.

A lot of that pressure play. The investigative powers act, large

:09:41.:09:46.

parts of it will be flayed by the House of Lords, the Government will

:09:47.:09:48.

concede. That is the way it will happen.

:09:49.:09:53.

Whether it is the approval mechanisms or the data gathered or

:09:54.:09:58.

who has access, those will be challenged.

:09:59.:10:00.

All those things will now be more at risk at least after the referendum.

:10:01.:10:05.

Maybe why they are brushing it through in the next few days.

:10:06.:10:10.

I would suggest looking at the campaign, two and a half weeks to

:10:11.:10:14.

go, in the week up to the Whitsun bank holiday, Remain one that, and

:10:15.:10:22.

overwhelming economic amount of stuff coming out.

:10:23.:10:26.

In the weeks since leading up to this weekend, Leave have probably

:10:27.:10:27.

done better. The interviews on Sky.

:10:28.:10:35.

Still all to play for. Leave goes into this week probably with a

:10:36.:10:38.

spring in its step. I think that is right. One of the

:10:39.:10:45.

mistakes of the Remain campaign was at two different points, to feel

:10:46.:10:49.

like they were heading for victory. Once in the aftermath of the visit

:10:50.:10:56.

by President Barack Obama. They thought it was a big moment that

:10:57.:10:59.

would produce a push. A couple of weeks ago, they sensed

:11:00.:11:07.

that polls were going their way, in private conversations they thought

:11:08.:11:10.

they had got it in the bag. That created hubris and a problem.

:11:11.:11:15.

They did not see coming the Australian style points system

:11:16.:11:21.

attacked by Vote Leave last weekend, setting out plans. They thought it

:11:22.:11:25.

would be a policy freak referendum campaign. That pulled the debate

:11:26.:11:30.

back into the Leave side. Is Leave thinking it can win?

:11:31.:11:34.

Privately, I think they are beginning to think they have a 50-50

:11:35.:11:41.

chance, maybe more. Previously, privately, a lot would admit they

:11:42.:11:45.

felt pessimistic. I definitely sense a shift. If you

:11:46.:11:49.

look at what happened in Scotland, it was around this time use saw

:11:50.:11:57.

polls saw an advantage -- seeing an advantage for independence.

:11:58.:12:02.

Still three weeks to go, nobody is counting their chickens.

:12:03.:12:08.

I am reliably informed Leave is ahead but that is embargoed so I

:12:09.:12:14.

didn't mention it. But they still don't think they are

:12:15.:12:19.

losing? How big a victory do they need in

:12:20.:12:23.

order to put the question to bed and preserve the Prime Minister.

:12:24.:12:29.

At least 55-45? That would do it. The fact they

:12:30.:12:34.

deployed John Major shows they are worried.

:12:35.:12:40.

John Major was the nuclear weapons. Lose or win, yes or no?

:12:41.:12:46.

Brexit, a small margin. You heard it here first. Just to

:12:47.:12:52.

mention, as well as the debate we have been discussing, I will be

:12:53.:12:55.

interviewing leading figures from both sides of

:12:56.:12:56.

Starting tomorrow at 7.30 on BBC One, with Shadow Foreign

:12:57.:13:01.

Followed on Wednesday by Chancellor George Osborne.

:13:02.:13:05.

And then it's the turn of Leave campaigners Nigel Farage

:13:06.:13:07.

I hope you can join me, it should be fun.

:13:08.:13:13.

And, of course, we're back here next week as usual at 11 o'clock

:13:14.:13:17.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:18.:13:23.

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest on the EU referendum campaigns. Andrew is joined by John Prescott and Conservative MP David Davis. There is also commentary from political journalists Janan Ganesh, Sam Coates and Isabel Oakeshott.


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