Browse content similar to 08/11/2015. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over | :00:34. | :00:41. | |
Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend WAS the target of | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond. | :00:46. | :00:53. | |
We will have the latest from each at and Russia. -- Egypt. | :00:54. | :00:59. | |
Are we now on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist | :01:00. | :01:02. | |
David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU | :01:03. | :01:07. | |
if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation, | :01:08. | :01:09. | |
Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be | :01:10. | :01:14. | |
And the row over a new contract for junior doctors in England | :01:15. | :01:17. | |
And coming up here: action, | :01:18. | :01:26. | |
Is a deal to save Stormont now likely within days? | :01:27. | :01:29. | |
We will have the latest on the negotiations. | :01:30. | :01:31. | |
Sinn Fein and the UUP on next year's centenary commemorations. | :01:32. | :01:42. | |
And with me, as always, the three journalists that help make this show | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert! | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh. | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking | :01:53. | :01:54. | |
But they may well bring a tear to your eye. | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have | :02:00. | :02:02. | |
been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November. | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants | :02:13. | :02:14. | |
to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership. | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that | :02:18. | :02:21. | |
he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more | :02:22. | :02:24. | |
But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his | :02:25. | :02:29. | |
strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants, | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
Whether they believe him is another matter. | :02:36. | :02:38. | |
This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this | :02:39. | :02:41. | |
The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic | :02:42. | :02:46. | |
This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the | :02:47. | :02:50. | |
European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is | :02:51. | :02:55. | |
an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our | :02:56. | :03:00. | |
prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century. | :03:01. | :03:03. | |
If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum. | :03:04. | :03:11. | |
That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening? | :03:12. | :03:17. | |
There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most | :03:18. | :03:21. | |
likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move | :03:22. | :03:24. | |
the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for | :03:25. | :03:28. | |
non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical | :03:29. | :03:31. | |
institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable, | :03:32. | :03:38. | |
the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does | :03:39. | :03:42. | |
your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they | :03:43. | :03:47. | |
are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a | :03:51. | :03:55. | |
year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum. You | :03:56. | :03:59. | |
get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be | :04:03. | :04:07. | |
very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he | :04:08. | :04:12. | |
can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in | :04:13. | :04:16. | |
work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic | :04:17. | :04:20. | |
principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a | :04:21. | :04:25. | |
nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to | :04:26. | :04:28. | |
that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he | :04:29. | :04:33. | |
fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will | :04:34. | :04:41. | |
hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip | :04:42. | :04:46. | |
Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic | :04:47. | :04:49. | |
legislation and it does look like the ban on EU migrants claiming in | :04:50. | :04:53. | |
work benefits for four years, the Government will they would thereby | :04:54. | :04:59. | |
codify some recent European Court judgments that have gone in favour | :05:00. | :05:02. | |
of the UK and not embedded in treaty change, but the hard language about | :05:03. | :05:05. | |
treaty change, the reason they are standing soaked up, is George | :05:06. | :05:11. | |
Osborne is absolutely confident that he is going to get a treaty change | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
agreement, protections for the Euro outs and Britain will get an opt out | :05:16. | :05:19. | |
from an ever closer union. George Osborne's the is that the protection | :05:20. | :05:23. | |
for the Euro outs is the most important thing he can get the | :05:24. | :05:26. | |
benefit of Britain but he knows politically the campaign, the most | :05:27. | :05:30. | |
important thing he has to get those migrant benefit restrictions. We | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
will see what he says on Tuesday, that is when the speech is being | :05:35. | :05:35. | |
made. A senior US government official is | :05:36. | :05:36. | |
quoted today by CNN saying they are "99.9% certain" that the 224 | :05:37. | :05:39. | |
passengers aboard the Russian jet which crashed into the Sinai Desert | :05:40. | :05:41. | |
last Saturday were the victims That's the view in London as well | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
as Washington and now, A memorial service has been held | :05:45. | :05:50. | |
today in the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the charter | :05:51. | :05:58. | |
flight was heading, while Moscow draws up plans to repatriate 80,000 | :05:59. | :06:01. | |
of its holidaymakers from various locations in Egypt, after it | :06:02. | :06:03. | |
suspended all flights there, following in the wake of Britain's | :06:04. | :06:07. | |
decision to suspend flights from Sharm el-Sheikh where thousands of | :06:08. | :06:13. | |
British citizens are still stranded. The downing of the flight is | :06:14. | :06:15. | |
a tragedy for those who lost their lives, and an inconvenience | :06:16. | :06:18. | |
for those stuck in Sharm. But its geopolitical significance | :06:19. | :06:21. | |
will be massive if it represents the emergence of Islamic State, | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
much better funded and organised than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group | :06:25. | :06:27. | |
capable of hitting targets far from In a moment, we will speak to Steve | :06:28. | :06:49. | |
Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First, we are joined by Sally Nabil from | :06:50. | :06:51. | |
Sharm el-Sheikh. Does the Egyptian Government Phil Borley get | :06:52. | :06:58. | |
now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed | :06:59. | :07:01. | |
another Russians have banned all flights to Egypt except to get | :07:02. | :07:08. | |
people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The | :07:09. | :07:10. | |
Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an | :07:11. | :07:15. | |
economic perspective. Tourism is very important to the economy, it is | :07:16. | :07:20. | |
a lifeline to the Egyptian economy, which is already in a bad shape and | :07:21. | :07:24. | |
the tourism industry depends mainly on Russia and Britain, so the fact | :07:25. | :07:29. | |
that no more to wrists, from Russia or Britain, will be coming to Egypt | :07:30. | :07:36. | |
is a huge blow to tourism here and Egypt needs foreign currency and it | :07:37. | :07:39. | |
depends on tourist spot that mainly, so it is a major blow to the | :07:40. | :07:42. | |
industry and put the Government in a tight situation. On the other hand, | :07:43. | :07:47. | |
the way the Egyptians have handled security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport | :07:48. | :07:52. | |
was a matter of great concern and criticism from different countries | :07:53. | :07:55. | |
around the world, even the tourists I have spoken to, they told us when | :07:56. | :08:00. | |
they first arrived, the security measures were a mess, so now the | :08:01. | :08:04. | |
measures have been tightened, some to wrists I spoke to yesterday told | :08:05. | :08:08. | |
me it makes them feel better -- some to tourist. If the President Sese | :08:09. | :08:18. | |
Government is feeling beleaguered in Cairo and will take another economic | :08:19. | :08:27. | |
hit because of the tourism, can we expect further crackdown on the | :08:28. | :08:31. | |
Sinai province terrorist groups? It is hard to tell at the moment, but | :08:32. | :08:36. | |
the Sinai military operation has been going on for nearly two years | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
now and every now and then, we hear about major attacks carried by | :08:42. | :08:49. | |
mainly the IS affiliated group called the Sinai province, so the | :08:50. | :08:54. | |
fact that the group have operated in Sinai the nearly two years, it seems | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
the insurgency group is still gaining momentum and if it happens | :08:59. | :09:02. | |
to be true they managed to smuggle a bomb on board the plane, it is a | :09:03. | :09:04. | |
major blow to the security operators. Sally Nabil, thank you. | :09:05. | :09:11. | |
Let's go to St Petersburg, we are joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there | :09:12. | :09:15. | |
any indication yet of how, assuming that it is shown to be a terrorist | :09:16. | :09:19. | |
attack, any indication of how Vladimir Putin is going to respond? | :09:20. | :09:26. | |
No, not yet. I think it is important to remember that despite the growing | :09:27. | :09:31. | |
suspicion that this was a bomb, the official Kremlin line still is that | :09:32. | :09:37. | |
it is keeping an open mind about this disaster, it is treating all | :09:38. | :09:40. | |
theories equally and the Kremlin says the fact that it has suspended | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
all flights to Egypt does not mean it favours the terror theory over | :09:47. | :09:51. | |
any other. Having said that, if it is proven to be a bomb, then judging | :09:52. | :09:55. | |
by the way President Putin has responded in the past to terror | :09:56. | :09:59. | |
attacks, I think we can expect a forceful response from him. How is | :10:00. | :10:05. | |
the domestic politics? I know it is hard to tell, because the media is | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
so controlled by the Kremlin, but is this an opportunity for Mr Putin to | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
further strengthen his position with a tougher crackdown, or is there | :10:14. | :10:18. | |
their fear in the Kremlin that having casualties as a result of his | :10:19. | :10:22. | |
war on terror will not make him very popular? It is an interesting | :10:23. | :10:28. | |
question. I remember back in 2004, when there was a string of terror | :10:29. | :10:33. | |
attacks on Russian soil, there were bombs in the Moscow Metro, two | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
planes bombed out of the sky and the year ended with the school siege in | :10:38. | :10:45. | |
Beslan, where 330 people were killed. None of that seemed to dent | :10:46. | :10:49. | |
Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite the opposite, he used it to | :10:50. | :10:54. | |
strengthen the power of the Kremlin. Now, you could argue that if this | :10:55. | :10:58. | |
doesn't prove to have been a bomb, that could undermine the narrative | :10:59. | :11:02. | |
that the Kremlin has been pushing domestically about its military | :11:03. | :11:06. | |
operation in Syria. In other words, Russia has been saying it has been | :11:07. | :11:10. | |
carrying out air strikes in Syria to boost national security in Russia, | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
to destroy terrorists so they couldn't come to Russia and kill | :11:17. | :11:21. | |
people there, that narrative will be seriously undermined. But whether | :11:22. | :11:24. | |
Russians would connect the dots and say, President Putin said we would | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
be safer but we clearly are not, I don't think that would happen, | :11:29. | :11:31. | |
because the Kremlin control so tightly the media here, particularly | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
television, and television is the key to influencing public opinion. | :11:37. | :11:41. | |
So if the Kremlin was to change the narrative to something more like we | :11:42. | :11:44. | |
have been attacked, we are the victims of terror, we need to carry | :11:45. | :11:48. | |
on our battle against international terrorism, I think the Russian | :11:49. | :11:52. | |
public would support that and from the people I have spoken to on the | :11:53. | :11:55. | |
streets of St Petersburg this morning, I haven't heard a word of | :11:56. | :11:59. | |
criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most people have said to me, I understand | :12:00. | :12:04. | |
Russia is at threat of terror attacks and they don't seem to | :12:05. | :12:07. | |
connect what may have happened to the Russian air bus with Russia's | :12:08. | :12:12. | |
military operation in Syria. Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg. | :12:13. | :12:16. | |
We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall, | :12:17. | :12:18. | |
Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, an expert in Russian security | :12:19. | :12:20. | |
And joining us from our Plymouth studio is the | :12:21. | :12:23. | |
He sits on the Commons Defence Committee, and is | :12:24. | :12:28. | |
Tim Marshall, if, as the intelligence suggests, this attack | :12:29. | :12:39. | |
was coordinated with Islamic State leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates | :12:40. | :12:42. | |
in the Sinai called soon I province, it means Islamic State has | :12:43. | :12:48. | |
the capability to plot mass casualty attacks outside of Syria and Iraq -- | :12:49. | :12:54. | |
called Sinai province. I think in the future, they will be able to do | :12:55. | :12:56. | |
it globally and this is the first sign of them doing it outside of the | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
countries they operate in. The head of the FSB came back the lead met | :13:02. | :13:07. | |
Putin on Friday and Putin immediately set ground the planes, | :13:08. | :13:11. | |
that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is | :13:12. | :13:17. | |
Russia and Germany and France in the amount of tourists there. President | :13:18. | :13:30. | |
Sisi has been to Moscow three times since he was elected. He is trying | :13:31. | :13:35. | |
to pull Russia back from America. So it is difficult for the Egyptians | :13:36. | :13:40. | |
and Russians to come back out to openly unsaved. So to come back to | :13:41. | :13:44. | |
your original point, I think it is pretty clear that the Isis affiliate | :13:45. | :13:50. | |
in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in Iraq. They are under a lot of | :13:51. | :13:54. | |
pressure from the Russians, 20% of the bombing was against Syria. They | :13:55. | :14:00. | |
have told their affiliate in the Sinai, you are the ones who can do | :14:01. | :14:03. | |
it from you do the operation, they have killed the Russians and the | :14:04. | :14:06. | |
Russians have to respond, I agree with what the Moscow correspondent | :14:07. | :14:14. | |
said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and | :14:15. | :14:20. | |
response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if what we are saying is | :14:21. | :14:24. | |
true and it was a planned attack by Islamic State, it takes IS into what | :14:25. | :14:30. | |
is called full spectrum terrorist activity and it is better financed | :14:31. | :14:32. | |
than Al-Qaeda, it is better resourced and organised in Syria and | :14:33. | :14:39. | |
Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was sitting in a cave in Afghanistan, | :14:40. | :14:44. | |
this takes the global war on terrorism to a whole new level. | :14:45. | :14:51. | |
This threat is existential. You can see, if this is proved to be | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
something that has originated from so-called Islamic State, you can see | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
their strategic region. This is why the Prime Minister has been going on | :15:03. | :15:08. | |
about this for so long. We have to do something about so-called Islamic | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
State because the threat will only get closer. We see this great | :15:12. | :15:15. | |
outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach. We | :15:16. | :15:23. | |
have had 30 of our own terrorists massacred in Tunisia. | :15:24. | :15:27. | |
I understand. Is the British response which the Prime Minister | :15:28. | :15:32. | |
has not managed to get Pollard to agree to on deploying eight Tornado | :15:33. | :15:35. | |
jets into Syria, is that really adequate given what you have called | :15:36. | :15:39. | |
an existential threat? We need to do what we are asked to | :15:40. | :15:45. | |
do by the coalition. It is not a question of how much manpower or | :15:46. | :15:48. | |
machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground. | :15:49. | :15:52. | |
We have been asked to provide those Tornado jets because they have a | :15:53. | :15:56. | |
specific tactical and technical capability to the coalition are | :15:57. | :16:00. | |
asked when it comes to dynamic targeting within Syria. We should | :16:01. | :16:04. | |
stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight. | :16:05. | :16:08. | |
The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no | :16:09. | :16:14. | |
strategy, is misinformed. We should have got past this by now. | :16:15. | :16:22. | |
What does this mean for Russia and Mr Putin? | :16:23. | :16:26. | |
To a certain extent, this has brought the ball back to Russia. I | :16:27. | :16:30. | |
would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the | :16:31. | :16:35. | |
Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's | :16:36. | :16:40. | |
paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their | :16:41. | :16:44. | |
argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock | :16:45. | :16:54. | |
because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and | :16:55. | :16:59. | |
western parts of the country weather and they understand that. | :17:00. | :17:03. | |
On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground | :17:04. | :17:08. | |
troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he | :17:09. | :17:15. | |
will have another response to the bombing. | :17:16. | :17:19. | |
He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups | :17:20. | :17:23. | |
against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to | :17:24. | :17:25. | |
Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of | :17:26. | :17:30. | |
bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday. | :17:31. | :17:36. | |
There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see | :17:37. | :17:40. | |
more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react. | :17:41. | :17:46. | |
The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the | :17:47. | :17:50. | |
American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the | :17:51. | :17:53. | |
immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign | :17:54. | :17:58. | |
policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human | :17:59. | :18:02. | |
emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support | :18:03. | :18:07. | |
more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria, | :18:08. | :18:17. | |
Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries, | :18:18. | :18:22. | |
and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda | :18:23. | :18:27. | |
and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves. | :18:28. | :18:31. | |
Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is | :18:32. | :18:36. | |
the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the | :18:37. | :18:41. | |
Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated, | :18:42. | :18:45. | |
that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because | :18:46. | :18:51. | |
it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the | :18:52. | :18:54. | |
West. Is that a response series SATs is | :18:55. | :19:00. | |
there a response seriously adequate to this? | :19:01. | :19:04. | |
Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we | :19:05. | :19:07. | |
should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all | :19:08. | :19:12. | |
still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of | :19:13. | :19:16. | |
foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the | :19:17. | :19:20. | |
drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of | :19:21. | :19:25. | |
life is to have no strategic involvement overseas. | :19:26. | :19:29. | |
If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it | :19:30. | :19:33. | |
demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we | :19:34. | :19:36. | |
have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come | :19:37. | :19:40. | |
closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to | :19:41. | :19:44. | |
happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that. | :19:45. | :19:51. | |
We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy, | :19:52. | :19:54. | |
this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him. | :19:55. | :20:00. | |
He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's | :20:01. | :20:04. | |
foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from | :20:05. | :20:10. | |
the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the | :20:11. | :20:13. | |
Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks | :20:14. | :20:17. | |
that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in | :20:18. | :20:23. | |
Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and | :20:24. | :20:27. | |
eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one | :20:28. | :20:34. | |
other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in | :20:50. | :20:54. | |
Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why | :20:55. | :20:59. | |
not the people who were under the bombs? | :21:00. | :21:01. | |
It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a | :21:02. | :21:05. | |
certain extent the Russians might not have been the initial main | :21:06. | :21:11. | |
objective of the attack, but to have an impact on Egypt and the Egyptian | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
tourism industry, because a country suffering the most from this attack | :21:17. | :21:22. | |
is actually going to be Egypt. Because its economy is so weak. We | :21:23. | :21:26. | |
had to be more careful when we analysed these groups and the | :21:27. | :21:30. | |
connections, and not immediately assume that Isis is giving this | :21:31. | :21:35. | |
order. I disagree with that interpretation. | :21:36. | :21:38. | |
Tim Marshall, here is the rub at the moment. We now face this potential | :21:39. | :21:42. | |
far wider or dangerous better resourced terrorist threat than ever | :21:43. | :21:48. | |
before. It happens at a time when we want to get together to deal with | :21:49. | :21:54. | |
this but the British are not bombing in Syria. Our allies America have | :21:55. | :21:59. | |
stopped bombing, Saudi Arabia, UAE, has devoted its jets, Bahrain has | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
not been part of anything since debris, the Saudis since September, | :22:04. | :22:09. | |
Jordan since August. America which is half-hearted in this, is almost | :22:10. | :22:14. | |
on its own in dealing with this now. And with a president not keen on | :22:15. | :22:20. | |
doing this, who was pushed into it. The British situation is different. | :22:21. | :22:24. | |
The politics of the matter, it is clear, is not in the House of | :22:25. | :22:27. | |
Commons. The SNP, Labour, Tory rebels, will | :22:28. | :22:32. | |
vote it down. We were talking earlier, because of a rock, we are | :22:33. | :22:38. | |
not going to do without Parliamentary vote. -- Iraq. | :22:39. | :22:50. | |
The French are putting their aircraft carrier back into the Gulf. | :22:51. | :22:53. | |
It was that the two months and they are selling it back from another | :22:54. | :22:55. | |
operation. At the request of the Americans. In | :22:56. | :23:01. | |
2007, since then, the Americans do not have a carrier in the Gulf. | :23:02. | :23:07. | |
The Tornado jets would make a difference. To say, we as a culture | :23:08. | :23:16. | |
with commonalities in our belief systems, we are standing together. | :23:17. | :23:20. | |
At the moment, they are not. We will leave it there. | :23:21. | :23:27. | |
The uneasy truce between supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn | :23:28. | :23:30. | |
and the majority of Labour MPs is under renewed strain this week. | :23:31. | :23:34. | |
First, MPs from the right of the party swept the board | :23:35. | :23:37. | |
at elections for posts that will give them a role in making policy. | :23:38. | :23:40. | |
Then Mr Corbyn's senior policy adviser, a young man called | :23:41. | :23:42. | |
Andrew Fisher, was suspended from the party, apparently after Blairite | :23:43. | :23:45. | |
MPs complained he had backed an anarchist at the general election | :23:46. | :23:47. | |
We already know that at least one MP wants to trigger | :23:48. | :23:56. | |
a leadership election if next May's election results are underwhelming. | :23:57. | :24:01. | |
But, if there is a contest, how would it work, and what hurdles | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
would face Mr Corbyn and his potential challengers? | :24:05. | :24:06. | |
Giles has been delving into the Labour Party rule book. | :24:07. | :24:08. | |
Be warned, there is flash photography in his film. | :24:09. | :24:18. | |
That some Labour MPs did not and do not want Jeremy Corbyn | :24:19. | :24:21. | |
That there are internal tensions between some MPs and Jeremy Corbyn's | :24:22. | :24:27. | |
That Labour has not removed a sitting leader since 1935 is a fact. | :24:28. | :24:37. | |
And that Jeremy Corbyn won the ballot to become leader with | :24:38. | :24:40. | |
a whisker off 60% of the vote is also a fact. | :24:41. | :24:48. | |
What is surprising about these facts is that it's Jeremy Corbyn's team | :24:49. | :24:51. | |
themselves who are very keen to see the rules surrounding any challenge | :24:52. | :24:54. | |
Because, when it comes to the rule book, the mechanism for such | :24:55. | :25:01. | |
It starts well enough with chapter four, clause two, B, two: | :25:02. | :25:11. | |
The wording of this clause is, in fact, already out-of-date as | :25:12. | :25:23. | |
of last conference, as any MP who can get 20% of support from | :25:24. | :25:28. | |
Labour Parliamentarians, that's MPs and now MEPs which, as of now means | :25:29. | :25:31. | |
Whether there is anyone who could do that at the moment is | :25:32. | :25:38. | |
a very moot point, however much some might wish there was. | :25:39. | :25:41. | |
If they get them, they then write to the Party General Secretary, and | :25:42. | :25:44. | |
Then Labour's National Executive Committee decides the timetable and | :25:45. | :25:53. | |
The problem is, nowhere in the rules is it specified what happens next. | :25:54. | :26:00. | |
It seems, within party circles, depending on their views, | :26:01. | :26:02. | |
The challenger or challengers are put on the ballot with | :26:03. | :26:12. | |
But the incumbent leader then needs 15% of Labour Parliamentarians to | :26:13. | :26:19. | |
nominate them so they too appear on it. | :26:20. | :26:31. | |
He is not popular inside the PLP, that is very clear. | :26:32. | :26:36. | |
So, if he's not going to go through automatically, | :26:37. | :26:39. | |
he has to knock on doors and get people to sign the form. | :26:40. | :26:42. | |
The challenger is on the ballot, others may also seek 20% nomination | :26:43. | :26:47. | |
threshold, and they too appear, but the leader is automatically included | :26:48. | :26:59. | |
The idea, the incumbent, somebody with 60% of the electorate in the | :27:00. | :27:02. | |
Labour Party, might not be on the ballot paper, yet someone at best | :27:03. | :27:05. | |
on the fringes of the Labour Party could be, is obviously unthinkable. | :27:06. | :27:08. | |
Only the named challenger goes forward | :27:09. | :27:13. | |
with their 20% nomination, and it is a straight binary head-to-head with | :27:14. | :27:16. | |
the leader who again is automatically in the contest. | :27:17. | :27:22. | |
Mr Corbyn might need more protective gear from scenario one and two, but | :27:23. | :27:28. | |
this programme understands option three is what the current leader's | :27:29. | :27:33. | |
team and the party solicitor think is the correct interpretation. | :27:34. | :27:38. | |
Of course, any talk of leadership challenges | :27:39. | :27:40. | |
might well upset the 60% of those who clearly wanted Jeremy Corbyn to | :27:41. | :27:45. | |
not only lead the party but lead it into the 2020 general election. | :27:46. | :27:49. | |
This wouldn't happen in any other organisation where you | :27:50. | :27:54. | |
have a new CEO judged on metrics that happened in the | :27:55. | :27:57. | |
Let us give him a bit more time before we start mounting challenges | :27:58. | :28:02. | |
or talking about challenges, because he does have an overwhelming mandate | :28:03. | :28:05. | |
Nonetheless, in bars and offices across Westminster, some Labour MPs | :28:06. | :28:10. | |
are thinking into the night how they can stop Jeremy Corbyn. | :28:11. | :28:15. | |
And some have no desire to remove him, | :28:16. | :28:20. | |
but think the idea of challenging any leader is important as an idea. | :28:21. | :28:25. | |
As a historian, I realise the Labour Party has a major problem | :28:26. | :28:28. | |
And I want a situation where it can say | :28:29. | :28:37. | |
they are not doing a decent job, and therefore they have got to go. | :28:38. | :28:40. | |
Because if he had won, he's there for two or three years. | :28:41. | :28:48. | |
So, if the rules were clarified, would it make | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
I can't see it happening for a very long time. | :28:52. | :28:57. | |
At the moment, the only way to be able to get rid | :28:58. | :28:59. | |
of Jeremy Corbyn, if that is what you want, is to convince people he | :29:00. | :29:03. | |
I see absolutely no evidence of that happening at all. | :29:04. | :29:10. | |
Of course that doesn't mean someone won't try. | :29:11. | :29:19. | |
Pole, even if the Parliamentary party had the stomach for a coup | :29:20. | :29:27. | |
against Mr Corbyn, it would result in civil war within the party | :29:28. | :29:30. | |
because the next election would go back to the same electorate that | :29:31. | :29:32. | |
elected Mr Corbin? could happen but if he was an | :29:33. | :29:46. | |
absolute disaster, losing by-elections, and by disaster, | :29:47. | :29:50. | |
significantly worse than Ed Miliband's results. After all, | :29:51. | :29:54. | |
Labour doesn't get rid of its leaders. Until something of that | :29:55. | :29:58. | |
kind happens, where you have a really persuasive argument that | :29:59. | :30:01. | |
there is not a hope in hell of him winning the next election, that | :30:02. | :30:06. | |
might bring the party round, but any rebels had to bring enough up the | :30:07. | :30:11. | |
party round to say, look, winning is what really matters and this guy | :30:12. | :30:16. | |
isn't going to win for us. Are there people talking, plotting coup is | :30:17. | :30:22. | |
already? Of course, the counterrevolutionaries, and they are | :30:23. | :30:25. | |
delighted with themselves in the PLP, they have a serious of | :30:26. | :30:31. | |
modernisers who have been elected to the chairmanship of these committees | :30:32. | :30:34. | |
-- a series of modernisers. 10% of them visited bag of loot voted for | :30:35. | :30:40. | |
this candle. The problem is, they have the power to trigger a | :30:41. | :30:45. | |
leadership contest but do not have the power to decide the contest, | :30:46. | :30:51. | |
that will be for the people who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Corbyn | :30:52. | :30:54. | |
and I agree, it will take up catastrophic meltdown over the next | :30:55. | :31:00. | |
year to get the contest taking place, but even if you had that | :31:01. | :31:02. | |
contest, I still think you will find, because he has only been there | :31:03. | :31:06. | |
a year, his supporters will say it is not our fault, give him more time | :31:07. | :31:12. | |
and you will find even in those circumstances, Jeremy Corbyn or | :31:13. | :31:15. | |
Jeremy Corbyn person would win. Mr Corbyn does sometimes create | :31:16. | :31:20. | |
unnecessary problems for himself. Let me show you this clip from | :31:21. | :31:24. | |
Andrew Fisher, he was a political adviser to Mr Corbyn. He has been | :31:25. | :31:28. | |
suspended from the party but he is still working for the Labour | :31:29. | :31:30. | |
leader. One of its problems is this is what he had to say. | :31:31. | :31:33. | |
I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was | :31:34. | :31:36. | |
I sometimes have nightmares, very violent, bloody nightmares | :31:37. | :31:39. | |
But it was excruciating and he said, look, we got to explain to people | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
there is more to life than moving from the bedroom to the sofa. | :31:45. | :31:48. | |
That was his attitude towards people who are unemployed. | :31:49. | :31:51. | |
For this plummy accented, Oxbridge-educated Tory | :31:52. | :31:55. | |
in a red rosette, frankly, to be saying that, was the most | :31:56. | :31:58. | |
It took every sinew of my self-discipline not to thump him. | :31:59. | :32:09. | |
Though Mr Fischer is no stranger to defend himself, having called other | :32:10. | :32:17. | |
Labour members vile gits and scumbags. You wonder why Mr Corbyn | :32:18. | :32:21. | |
feels he needs someone like this. And if you think Mr Corbyn is trying | :32:22. | :32:24. | |
to prevent an internal push against himself, why he would making the | :32:25. | :32:31. | |
late make several of the personnel decisions he has -- why he would be | :32:32. | :32:35. | |
making several other personnel decisions. If you are hoping to get | :32:36. | :32:39. | |
him out, your hub would have to be that the new members that have | :32:40. | :32:41. | |
changed the composition of the Labour Party are not hardened, | :32:42. | :32:45. | |
militia style activists that will defend him to the last ditch, but | :32:46. | :32:49. | |
are dreamers and kids who got excited over the summer and will | :32:50. | :32:53. | |
break away in the coming years and will realise that internal party | :32:54. | :32:56. | |
warfare means turning up to tedious meetings on a wet Thursday night and | :32:57. | :33:01. | |
they will not be there to protect him in the worst instances. I think | :33:02. | :33:05. | |
Polly is right, he won't go unless he is an obvious disaster, but I | :33:06. | :33:08. | |
don't think he will come across as an obvious disaster until the spring | :33:09. | :33:12. | |
of 2020, by which time it is too late and Labour have already lost | :33:13. | :33:19. | |
the last of the late next election. -- lost the next election. | :33:20. | :33:21. | |
It's coming up to one o'clock, you're watching the Sunday Politics. | :33:22. | :33:23. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :33:24. | :33:33. | |
Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland. | :33:34. | :33:36. | |
On this Remembrance Sunday, as wreaths are laid to remember | :33:37. | :33:39. | |
the war dead, how will the parties here approach next | :33:40. | :33:41. | |
year's centenaries of the Battle of the Somme and the Easter Rising? | :33:42. | :33:46. | |
the Ulster Unionist Councillor Doug Beattie | :33:47. | :33:49. | |
and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley. | :33:50. | :33:51. | |
Also today, with their thoughts on that private | :33:52. | :33:53. | |
meeting between David Cameron and the First and Deputy First | :33:54. | :33:56. | |
Ministers, my guests of the day are the academic Cathy Gormley-Heenan | :33:57. | :33:59. | |
We are told he keeps a very close eye on the talks at | :34:00. | :34:12. | |
Stormont, though the Prime Minister only tends to get personally | :34:13. | :34:15. | |
The First and Deputy First Ministers held a private meeting with | :34:16. | :34:19. | |
David Cameron in Downing Street on Friday afternoon. | :34:20. | :34:21. | |
It is understood the discussions centred around Stormont's finances. | :34:22. | :34:25. | |
So, does that development signal the likelihood | :34:26. | :34:27. | |
The Secretary of State wasn't giving much away when I asked her | :34:28. | :34:32. | |
about political progress on The View on Thursday night. | :34:33. | :34:40. | |
And that the Cenotaph this morning in both us, she was asked about the | :34:41. | :34:45. | |
significance of Freddie's meeting. I cannot comment on that meeting, it | :34:46. | :34:49. | |
was a private meeting. The Prime Minister has obviously been | :34:50. | :34:52. | |
following the process of the talks very carefully. It was no trouble | :34:53. | :34:59. | |
for him to meet the First and 51st Ministers for an update. But I think | :35:00. | :35:03. | |
it was useful meeting, and it is still going to be a crucial week. | :35:04. | :35:10. | |
The Taoiseach has said the deal is on for this week. I am very hopeful | :35:11. | :35:15. | |
and happy with the reports I am getting. That the deal is on here. I | :35:16. | :35:22. | |
hope it can be included successfully in the next couple of days. I am in | :35:23. | :35:30. | |
Enniskillen today, I will be talking to the Prime Minister in Downing | :35:31. | :35:32. | |
Street tomorrow and afterwards I will make arrangements to meet with | :35:33. | :35:35. | |
the First and Deputy First Minister and I hope we can have this | :35:36. | :35:40. | |
concluded. Enda Kenny, talking there in Enniskillen. | :35:41. | :35:41. | |
Let's hear what Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Newton Emerson make | :35:42. | :35:44. | |
The situation is developing, as we are on air. Newton, I suppose we | :35:45. | :35:55. | |
shouldn't be surprised a lot of people have been talking about | :35:56. | :35:58. | |
choreography in the background over the last week or two, it seems now | :35:59. | :36:04. | |
that a deal is on. Yes, and it will be roughly the day it was available | :36:05. | :36:07. | |
last year and the year before and various other deals, but what seems | :36:08. | :36:11. | |
different this time is that it is not the Sicily and all party deal. | :36:12. | :36:16. | |
It seems to be between Sinn Fein and the DUP. -- not necessarily. That | :36:17. | :36:21. | |
changes the dynamic. It could have ramifications for how Stormont feels | :36:22. | :36:24. | |
and operates in the future. What do you make of the fact that Enda Kenny | :36:25. | :36:29. | |
is saying this morning he is due to meet David Cameron tomorrow and then | :36:30. | :36:34. | |
he will meet with Martin McGuinness and Peter Robinson tomorrow night? I | :36:35. | :36:38. | |
suspect that is to talk about finances as well, it was reported | :36:39. | :36:42. | |
earlier that the DUP and Sinn Fein had presented a paper although | :36:43. | :36:45. | |
didn't table it as part of the formal negotiations, to ask the | :36:46. | :36:51. | |
Irish Government for 550 million euros so I suspect the conversation | :36:52. | :36:55. | |
tomorrow will be about that. As much as the conversation on Friday with | :36:56. | :36:59. | |
David Cameron was probably about finance rather than the mechanics of | :37:00. | :37:04. | |
the agreement. What do you make of Newton's point, it doesn't have to | :37:05. | :37:09. | |
be, she confirmed this, it doesn't have to be a 5 party deal. What will | :37:10. | :37:13. | |
happen if a deal is reached is that it will be presented to the Assembly | :37:14. | :37:23. | |
as a legislative consent motion. It means that those issues will be | :37:24. | :37:27. | |
dealt with by a single, unified unitary bill that will be taken | :37:28. | :37:29. | |
forward by Westminster. The fact the DUP and Sinn Fein her -- are the | :37:30. | :37:35. | |
July just parties will mean that despite any debate, the legislative | :37:36. | :37:38. | |
consent motion will pass. Does not really matter the Ulster Unionists | :37:39. | :37:44. | |
and the SDLP are left outside the tent? What is presumably critical is | :37:45. | :37:48. | |
that the DUP and Sinn Fein are inside. Yes, that is all that | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
matters. The only reason they ever cared about the smaller parties | :37:53. | :37:57. | |
being on board is to have tribal cover when they do a deal with each | :37:58. | :38:01. | |
other. If both of those parties have now done a deal, 1 of the things | :38:02. | :38:06. | |
that means is that the DUP is no longer so worried about protecting | :38:07. | :38:11. | |
its flank. What we're looking at is a Stormont Castle deal between the | :38:12. | :38:15. | |
two main parties, rather than a Stormont House deal between the five | :38:16. | :38:19. | |
parties? Yes, exactly. That is OK in the run-up to the election, the | :38:20. | :38:24. | |
smaller parties will say that this was not an inclusive agreement, that | :38:25. | :38:28. | |
all the parties had signed up to. What about the difficult issues? The | :38:29. | :38:35. | |
Secretary of State confirmed that national security veto continues to | :38:36. | :38:40. | |
be an issue for nationalists. There are outstanding issues for what the | :38:41. | :38:42. | |
rough and legacy, could some of those issues be dealt with later or | :38:43. | :38:46. | |
does this have to be a deal that includes everything, where all the | :38:47. | :38:51. | |
detail is tied down? I don't see why it has do include all of the issues. | :38:52. | :38:55. | |
I suspect there will be a form of words to cover the issues. I suspect | :38:56. | :38:58. | |
that Sinn Fein has raised some of the non-financial issues to help | :38:59. | :39:02. | |
cover its own moves on welfare reform. It is interesting to see | :39:03. | :39:09. | |
what appears to be a more relaxed approach on the part of Enda Kenny | :39:10. | :39:15. | |
today, saying I think a deal is on. The Secretary of State was very | :39:16. | :39:17. | |
cagey about it, she said that a deal was possible but she would not say | :39:18. | :39:23. | |
that it was probable. Admittedly, we are further down the road, but does | :39:24. | :39:28. | |
it tell you that the Nationalists are more relaxed about this and | :39:29. | :39:33. | |
Unionists? No, it tells me that they have been listening and reading the | :39:34. | :39:37. | |
books on how to negotiate, because there are keeping civil underpinning | :39:38. | :39:40. | |
all successful negotiations to create a win - win solution. One of | :39:41. | :39:46. | |
those is no leaks, no offering ultimatums, no going to the press | :39:47. | :39:49. | |
before you go to the parties, and listening more than talking. We have | :39:50. | :39:54. | |
finally seen evidence of that bust up the fact that Theresa Villiers | :39:55. | :39:56. | |
did not say what had happened on Friday night speaks volumes. | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
Interesting to hear your thoughts, we will talk more on that later. | :40:02. | :40:03. | |
Leading politicians from the Republic have joined | :40:04. | :40:04. | |
Remembrance services here to honour the war dead. | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
The Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, was in Enniskillen, | :40:08. | :40:09. | |
and earlier this morning the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs | :40:10. | :40:11. | |
joined the Secretary of State and other dignitaries to lay a | :40:12. | :40:13. | |
So, as we approach 2016 and the marking of two major historical | :40:14. | :40:21. | |
anniversaries on both sides of the border, the Battle of the Somme | :40:22. | :40:23. | |
and the Easter Rising, how will the parties approach the commemorations? | :40:24. | :40:28. | |
The Ulster Unionist Party has revealed it is likely to be present | :40:29. | :40:31. | |
in Dublin at some point next Easter, potentially holding its own event. | :40:32. | :40:35. | |
Joining me are Doug Beattie, a UUP councillor in Craigavon, | :40:36. | :40:38. | |
and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley. | :40:39. | :40:45. | |
You are both very welcome to the programme. Thank you for joining us. | :40:46. | :40:51. | |
Doug Beattie, just before we get into this, can I ask you for the | :40:52. | :40:55. | |
latest of elements, does it seem to you that a deal is going to happen | :40:56. | :41:02. | |
this week and possibly your party might be outside the tent? Let's be | :41:03. | :41:07. | |
clear that Sinn Fein and the DUP are doing a deal behind closed doors and | :41:08. | :41:12. | |
the Osterley Unionist party are being held out. When we see the | :41:13. | :41:15. | |
deal, I think Mike Nesbitt will see if it is a deal that is good for the | :41:16. | :41:18. | |
people of Northern Ireland, and if it is we will sign up. If it is not, | :41:19. | :41:24. | |
we most definitely will not. The fact is, they are doing a deal | :41:25. | :41:28. | |
regardless of the input from the other parties, it is beyond me. | :41:29. | :41:34. | |
Let's talk about Remembrance Sunday and the commemorations more | :41:35. | :41:37. | |
generally. Today, Remembrance Sunday is still a contested space here. As | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
a former soldier, what does it mean for you? It means everything, it is | :41:44. | :41:49. | |
the 1 day of the year, collective Dave where we have the opportunity | :41:50. | :41:53. | |
to remember and reflect. But it is a very private thing for individuals. | :41:54. | :41:58. | |
Sadly for me it is a private, to remember and reflect on friends and | :41:59. | :42:01. | |
colleagues and families who have passed away, and for those | :42:02. | :42:06. | |
ex-combatants who have died and the many thousands of civilians who have | :42:07. | :42:09. | |
passed away over conflicts past and present. It is very private. Before | :42:10. | :42:14. | |
we have from Tom Hartley, have advanced at this stage are the | :42:15. | :42:18. | |
Ulster Unionist plans to be in Dublin next Easter? Well, we have | :42:19. | :42:24. | |
been sending representatives down to remember our war dead from the | :42:25. | :42:30. | |
Easter Rebellion, for a number of years. We are now looking at how we | :42:31. | :42:33. | |
can do that further, how we can engage politically about the | :42:34. | :42:38. | |
repercussions of what happened in 1916 and the relevance they have | :42:39. | :42:42. | |
today. What happened 100 years ago, nearly, has absolute relevance to | :42:43. | :42:48. | |
what is happening today. Tom Hartley, do you welcome the Ulster | :42:49. | :42:51. | |
Unionist being in Dublin discussing the Easter Rising, but possibly with | :42:52. | :42:54. | |
their own event and possibly putting forward their own interpretation of | :42:55. | :42:59. | |
what is wrong with the Nationalists view of the Easter Rising? Very much | :43:00. | :43:03. | |
so. In fact, I think it is necessary. I think we need to | :43:04. | :43:07. | |
address the Quebec city of our history. It is complex and often | :43:08. | :43:14. | |
difficult. -- address the complexities. I want to see a | :43:15. | :43:17. | |
process where people can engage and talk to one another, here different | :43:18. | :43:22. | |
views, for instance next year I am starting to organise a number of | :43:23. | :43:26. | |
lectures, one of which will be a Unionist critique of 1916, another | :43:27. | :43:31. | |
will look at the communities of Donegal and Monaghan and Cabannes, | :43:32. | :43:34. | |
who were really effective immediately after the rising. -- | :43:35. | :43:39. | |
caravan. I will be looking at how we replace rouble like Roger Casement | :43:40. | :43:49. | |
-- we place people like. They were raised as Northern Protestants but | :43:50. | :43:55. | |
Roger Casement ended up republican. Can we look at that just outside the | :43:56. | :43:59. | |
normal way that people look at this? But there will be discordant | :44:00. | :44:05. | |
and dissonant voices. You may hear things from Doug Beattie and others | :44:06. | :44:09. | |
that you don't like and don't agree with. I would argue that is | :44:10. | :44:15. | |
democracy. But is part of life, part of history. We are not | :44:16. | :44:20. | |
one-dimensional. I keep saying history doesn't run along parallel | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
lines in Ireland, it is complex, layered and difficult. But it is our | :44:25. | :44:27. | |
history and I think we have doing get with it. Do you need to separate | :44:28. | :44:34. | |
out that debate from acts of remembrance? There are two separate | :44:35. | :44:38. | |
things going on, one is a historical discussion, the other is remembering | :44:39. | :44:42. | |
people who lost their lives in conflict. Absolutely, there is even | :44:43. | :44:49. | |
more to that, and ideological and political depth, if you look at the | :44:50. | :44:54. | |
1916 rising, there is an ideological questions still to be asked, because | :44:55. | :44:59. | |
the proclamation had a distinct set of principles it wanted to put out, | :45:00. | :45:06. | |
which Unionists would clearly be opposed to. I suppose the question | :45:07. | :45:10. | |
is, broadly, should Unionists really be getting involved in marking the | :45:11. | :45:16. | |
centenary of the Easter Rising? The DUP's line is commemorations of the | :45:17. | :45:19. | |
Easter Rising will be important to many people but they are not | :45:20. | :45:23. | |
something with which many Unionists will feel much affinity or are | :45:24. | :45:28. | |
likely to participate in. Alistair said to me that the rising was | :45:29. | :45:31. | |
"foreign, grubby, failed rebellion in some other place". -- Jim | :45:32. | :45:38. | |
Allister. He speaks for himself and the TUV Blatt he might speak for | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
some members of the UUP. You have to remember that the 1916 rebellion | :45:46. | :45:49. | |
took place on UK soil. It was a battle held on UK soil, so we have | :45:50. | :45:54. | |
to look at it, and see what the consequences were, and we have to | :45:55. | :45:59. | |
remember. If you were to ask me, what do you think? I would say that | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
everyone has the right to remember what is important to them and I | :46:04. | :46:07. | |
would be happy to go down to Dublin and be involved in remembering all | :46:08. | :46:12. | |
combatants and civilians, but not in Northern Ireland. Tom Hartley, can I | :46:13. | :46:18. | |
ask about the Irish republican plans to mark the centenary of the Battle | :46:19. | :46:23. | |
of the Somme? It involved the 36th Ulster Division, mostly from | :46:24. | :46:28. | |
Northern Ireland. Is it right that the Irish Government acknowledges | :46:29. | :46:30. | |
the significance of the Battle of the Somme and Ulstermen who died | :46:31. | :46:36. | |
with Mac yes, because it is a major historical event. We have then to | :46:37. | :46:44. | |
address it. It may be a challenge, but it needs addressed. We can't | :46:45. | :46:48. | |
ignore it. History has happened. We have to engage with it. There will | :46:49. | :46:53. | |
be those who will engage through talking, those who will engage | :46:54. | :46:55. | |
through commemoration, but I think what we need in all of this is to | :46:56. | :47:01. | |
say, let's stop hurting each other over our dead, let's bring a degree | :47:02. | :47:06. | |
of dignity. One of the things I notice about history conversations | :47:07. | :47:12. | |
is, people often get together and try and browbeat each other, to say, | :47:13. | :47:17. | |
your history doesn't really matter. In fact, we can learn through these | :47:18. | :47:23. | |
events to engage, have differences of opinion and be able to talk about | :47:24. | :47:26. | |
different aspects and interpretations of history. If we | :47:27. | :47:31. | |
come out of next year with a deeper understanding of each other and the | :47:32. | :47:34. | |
dignity of the other, I think it will be a successful year. | :47:35. | :47:36. | |
Is that what it is all about? Accepting that all kinds of things | :47:37. | :47:47. | |
happened 100 years ago that we may like or may not, but an open, | :47:48. | :47:52. | |
honest, respectful discussion is the way for a? Absolutely. Every person | :47:53. | :47:57. | |
that wants the run version of history to be reinforced their | :47:58. | :48:01. | |
another person who is really hungry or those alternative versions of | :48:02. | :48:06. | |
history. Deceit understand why the interpretation might be different. | :48:07. | :48:10. | |
-- to seek to understand. What people saw the consequences of the | :48:11. | :48:14. | |
Easter Rising, and I think it is interesting that the Irish | :48:15. | :48:18. | |
Government in their state-sponsored initiatives have education at the | :48:19. | :48:22. | |
heart of it, putting emphasis on schools and on asking schoolchildren | :48:23. | :48:25. | |
to design a proclamation for the 21st century, with a lot of the | :48:26. | :48:29. | |
social and economic and equality measures underpinning it. So I | :48:30. | :48:35. | |
agree. Newton, are you optimistic that what Doug and Tom want to | :48:36. | :48:40. | |
achieve can and will be achieved? We know that politics both sides of the | :48:41. | :48:46. | |
border, the chances are there will be individuals and parties who will | :48:47. | :48:49. | |
choose to be offended at some of what happens. Of course there will | :48:50. | :48:56. | |
be. Sinn Fein is running its own separate commemoration. But I think | :48:57. | :48:59. | |
it would be as well to make both these commemorations as ecumenical | :49:00. | :49:03. | |
as possible. I am struck by how there has been little reflection of | :49:04. | :49:06. | |
the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising, which was believed for a | :49:07. | :49:10. | |
long time to have contributed to tensions in Northern Ireland. It fit | :49:11. | :49:14. | |
into republican frustration, Unionists to get as a basis for | :49:15. | :49:20. | |
provocation because there was a very militaristic celebration in the | :49:21. | :49:23. | |
South. We have a much better effort going on in Dublin now but we have | :49:24. | :49:26. | |
to recognise that it is a dangerous moment. You also have to point out | :49:27. | :49:30. | |
that the Northern Ireland Executive release a statement said they had | :49:31. | :49:34. | |
shown great leadership and I know they have been busy with other thing | :49:35. | :49:38. | |
but perhaps that is one of the things that will be picked up again | :49:39. | :49:42. | |
after the conclusion of the talks. How do you legislate... Welcome, you | :49:43. | :49:49. | |
can, but deal the fact that the commemoration good step over the | :49:50. | :49:52. | |
line? You have to have it as inclusive as possible. The mention | :49:53. | :49:58. | |
of an educational basis for this commemoration is the way to go | :49:59. | :50:01. | |
because a synergy look into the history in any detail, including | :50:02. | :50:06. | |
that of the loyalists and the Unionist uprising in Northern | :50:07. | :50:08. | |
Ireland, you realise how multilayered it is. I think that | :50:09. | :50:14. | |
diffuses the situation. Well, complexity is perhaps what will be | :50:15. | :50:18. | |
teased out in the next 12 months. Thank you to all. | :50:19. | :50:18. | |
Now let's pause for a look back at the political week gone past | :50:19. | :50:22. | |
Possible, not probable, the Secretary of State said a deal was | :50:23. | :50:38. | |
not yet done. There is a concluded agreement -- I do not think there is | :50:39. | :50:42. | |
a concluded agreement. It is possible we can get at that stage | :50:43. | :50:45. | |
but I do not think there are that stage. For the 1st time in majority | :50:46. | :50:49. | |
of MLAs voted in favour of same-sex marriage. But the DUP petition of | :50:50. | :50:54. | |
concern blocked the motion. I think those who are against, like myself, | :50:55. | :51:00. | |
on the wrong of history. Nothing changed following yet another | :51:01. | :51:04. | |
academic selection debate. I have two sides of this argument. They are | :51:05. | :51:11. | |
poles apart. It will remain so. We need to have a democratic fail-safe | :51:12. | :51:17. | |
and have to listen to the attitude of local expertise there is in our | :51:18. | :51:22. | |
system. And with arts cuts on the agenda, the Culture Minister used | :51:23. | :51:30. | |
some colourful language. You do have a complete brass neck. | :51:31. | :51:34. | |
Just time for a quick look at what's coming up this week, | :51:35. | :51:38. | |
The parties, we know, have been called to Stormont tomorrow at | :51:39. | :51:53. | |
10:30. We understand that sources suggesting a deal has been pencilled | :51:54. | :51:57. | |
in for Thursday. I will believe it when I see it expect I have no doubt | :51:58. | :52:01. | |
there is a deal but when it comes to precise times and days, there is | :52:02. | :52:03. | |
always something else over the horizon. I asked the Secretary of | :52:04. | :52:09. | |
State, is there a shadow deal that they have to sign up to? She said | :52:10. | :52:13. | |
there is not at this stage. Do you think perhaps later there might be? | :52:14. | :52:16. | |
It is interesting that Peter Robinson's comment said we will have | :52:17. | :52:21. | |
a deal or not in ten days, which is tomorrow. We will see if he is a | :52:22. | :52:28. | |
soothsayer or not! Let's talk about the SDLP. The leadership result due | :52:29. | :52:34. | |
on Saturday. Can Colum Eastwood beat Alasdair McDonnell? What I have | :52:35. | :52:37. | |
heard is he doesn't have the numbers. The interesting thing | :52:38. | :52:41. | |
coming out is the internal report showing it would be the fifth | :52:42. | :52:44. | |
largest party after the next election. That is the first time | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
that the symmetry of the Stormont Executive system will have changed. | :52:49. | :52:52. | |
That is big. What is your assessment of the debate going on within that | :52:53. | :52:57. | |
party, Cathy? I think whoever the leader is after the leadership | :52:58. | :53:01. | |
contest in November, faces a serious challenge. Alistair McDonnell had to | :53:02. | :53:05. | |
explain to the electorate why after four years of rebuilding the party | :53:06. | :53:10. | |
it has continued to have per election results. Colum Eastwood | :53:11. | :53:13. | |
will have to be able to explain to those voting what he is going to do | :53:14. | :53:17. | |
to turn that around. If he was elected, it would be a very short | :53:18. | :53:21. | |
window of opportunity he has to turn things around before the next | :53:22. | :53:22. | |
election. That's it from Sunday Politics | :53:23. | :53:23. | |
for this week. My thanks to Bob Stewart and to | :53:24. | :53:26. | |
Stephen Pound and, with that, The row between junior doctors and | :53:27. | :53:32. | |
Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has The disagreement centres | :53:33. | :53:39. | |
around a proposed new contract The Government says the existing | :53:40. | :53:42. | |
arrangements are outdated and claims the move will help | :53:43. | :53:47. | |
deliver the Conservative manifesto The British Medical Association, | :53:48. | :53:50. | |
representing junior doctors, says the changes will result in working | :53:51. | :53:55. | |
practices that are unsafe and unfair Any industrial action could involve | :53:56. | :53:58. | |
a walk-out from all but emergency work, | :53:59. | :54:05. | |
in what is likely to be the biggest Well, the Labour Party has called | :54:06. | :54:09. | |
on Mr Hunt to scrap his plans, and the Shadow Health Secretary | :54:10. | :54:15. | |
Heidi Alexander joins us now. Welcome to the programme. Is the | :54:16. | :54:26. | |
Labour Party in favour of the concept of a 7 day a week Health | :54:27. | :54:31. | |
Service? We are but I think you need to understand the barriers that | :54:32. | :54:36. | |
exist in order to provide that service. | :54:37. | :54:39. | |
Jeremy Hunt the Health Secretary has implied that if you change the | :54:40. | :54:44. | |
junior doctors's contract, then in some way that automatically means | :54:45. | :54:48. | |
you have a 7 day NHS. It doesn't. You don't just need junior doctors. | :54:49. | :54:52. | |
They are already working weekends and nights. You need consultant | :54:53. | :55:00. | |
cover, diagnostics support, pharmacists, 24/7 social care. | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
If Jeremy Hunt isn't being honest about the resources he would put in | :55:05. | :55:10. | |
to deliver that 24/7 NHS, then picking a fight with junior doctors | :55:11. | :55:14. | |
which is what he seems determined to do at the moment, will not provide | :55:15. | :55:19. | |
the solution he said it will. If you wanted a proper 7-day-a-week | :55:20. | :55:26. | |
NHS, would you also had to change the junior doctors's contract? | :55:27. | :55:33. | |
I'm not totally convinced that changing their contracts will | :55:34. | :55:36. | |
actually result in more junior doctors being available on the ward. | :55:37. | :55:39. | |
There are some things that should probably... | :55:40. | :55:43. | |
You have said the existing contract is not perfect, do you need to | :55:44. | :55:48. | |
change it in some ways for seven day cover? Along with the things you | :55:49. | :55:53. | |
mentioned. If you listened to what hospital bosses and chief executive | :55:54. | :55:58. | |
say, they are saying very clearly that the junior doctor contract is | :55:59. | :56:01. | |
not the main issue here. There are other things that would | :56:02. | :56:04. | |
need to change. One of the things that really concerns junior doctors | :56:05. | :56:08. | |
is that the proposals that seemed to be on the table at the moment are | :56:09. | :56:12. | |
bad for patient safety, and they are not convinced that the proposals | :56:13. | :56:18. | |
will result in them not working even more excessive and exhausting hours | :56:19. | :56:33. | |
than they at the moment. The contract at the moment has | :56:34. | :56:35. | |
financial penalties built into it which means, if a hospital forces | :56:36. | :56:37. | |
junior doctors to work very long hours, then that hospital is | :56:38. | :56:39. | |
financially penalised. And that system, whilst it may not be | :56:40. | :56:42. | |
perfect, has the broad confidence of junior doctors, and they are very | :56:43. | :56:44. | |
worried this proposal that has come forward in the last couple of days, | :56:45. | :56:47. | |
even though negotiations have been going on for years, will compromise | :56:48. | :56:51. | |
patient safety. Was the BMA right to begin a strike | :56:52. | :56:55. | |
ballot without sitting down with Jeremy Hunt over the new offer? I | :56:56. | :57:00. | |
think the BMA and junior doctors feel that they have been backed into | :57:01. | :57:05. | |
a corner because of the way that Jeremy Hunt has handled these | :57:06. | :57:07. | |
negotiations. He started off by saying that the | :57:08. | :57:11. | |
BMA and junior doctors would have two agreed to 22 out of 23 | :57:12. | :57:18. | |
preconditions laid down by the doctors and dentists's remuneration | :57:19. | :57:19. | |
board. He went on to imply, which has | :57:20. | :57:26. | |
angered Junor doctors even more, if you change this contract it will | :57:27. | :57:29. | |
somehow result in lives being saved. And then we have a situation on | :57:30. | :57:35. | |
Wednesday, 24 hours before the ballot of junior doctors is due to | :57:36. | :57:41. | |
start, that he decides the best way to conduct negotiations is to issue | :57:42. | :57:43. | |
a press release from the Department of Health. And that is the best way | :57:44. | :57:50. | |
to conduct negotiations. He has been talking to the BMA since | :57:51. | :57:56. | |
2012, this is not a new problem. He has made an 11% pay offer. He | :57:57. | :58:01. | |
said other than the few already working illegal hours, less than 1% | :58:02. | :58:05. | |
would see come would lose some pain but that is because they would not | :58:06. | :58:11. | |
be working as much. 75% would get a rise, is that not something worth | :58:12. | :58:14. | |
talking about? A lot of this is spent, Andrew. | :58:15. | :58:19. | |
How do you know? The 11% pay offer applies to a | :58:20. | :58:24. | |
proportion of the junior doctors's contract, the other proportion of | :58:25. | :58:29. | |
their wage will actually be going down. So, you cannot say that this | :58:30. | :58:35. | |
is an 11% pay rise. Let me finish this point. How do you know if you | :58:36. | :58:39. | |
don't sit around negotiations? Listen to Jeremy Hunt, he is saying | :58:40. | :58:45. | |
the overall pay envelope for junior doctors will remain broadly the | :58:46. | :58:50. | |
same. How can it possibly be an 11% pay rise? | :58:51. | :58:53. | |
A rise in the basic and they will do less overtime, less hours would | :58:54. | :58:57. | |
count as overtime. It is cogitated as it may be the | :58:58. | :59:00. | |
junior doctors will think this does not take us forward. | :59:01. | :59:05. | |
Don't they owe it to those of us who pay their salaries, the people who | :59:06. | :59:10. | |
use the NHS, to sit down with Mr Hunt and go through it? I think they | :59:11. | :59:14. | |
have tried but the way in which the Health Secretary has handled these | :59:15. | :59:18. | |
negotiations has been absolutely appalling. | :59:19. | :59:22. | |
Take the example of this. On Wednesday, again, 24 hours before | :59:23. | :59:27. | |
the ballot opens, it is the first time that the Health Secretary says | :59:28. | :59:31. | |
that the Care Quality Commission are going to be involved in monitoring | :59:32. | :59:37. | |
the hours of junior doctors. Why didn't we hear that two months ago? | :59:38. | :59:40. | |
Why did we hear that six months ago? This is the Care Quality | :59:41. | :59:44. | |
Commission... If you were a junior doctor, would you vote for strike | :59:45. | :59:47. | |
action? I am not a junior doctor, it is not | :59:48. | :59:53. | |
for me as a politician to sit in a TV studio on a Sunday afternoon and | :59:54. | :59:57. | |
tell junior doctors how they should vote in a ballot. I am not going | :59:58. | :00:03. | |
If they do vote for strike action, will the Labour Party support them? | :00:04. | :00:11. | |
I am not going to prejudge the outcome of the ballot. You have come | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
on and argued the junior doctors' case, with knowledge and some | :00:17. | :00:20. | |
eloquence, so if they vote for strike action, why, given everything | :00:21. | :00:24. | |
you have said, would you not support them? Jeremy Hunt can avoid a strike | :00:25. | :00:29. | |
tomorrow if he avoids the threat of contract imposition. I will ask | :00:30. | :00:37. | |
Jeremy Hunt when I speak to him. Would you, if they vote for strike | :00:38. | :00:41. | |
action, will the Labour Party support them? It is a simple | :00:42. | :00:45. | |
question. I will be happy to come back and speak to you in a couple of | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
weeks, but I am not going to prejudge the outcome of a democratic | :00:50. | :00:53. | |
process that is currently under way. The Government in a mess or other | :00:54. | :00:58. | |
junior doctors chancing their arm? It is interesting, it is where is | :00:59. | :01:01. | |
where those two Conservative manifesto commitments made, the | :01:02. | :01:05. | |
seven-day NHS and the other thing, the ?22 billion of efficiency | :01:06. | :01:09. | |
savings in the NHS to meet the ?30 billion funding gap. What is | :01:10. | :01:15. | |
interesting is if there is pain here, imagine what it will be like | :01:16. | :01:18. | |
in other areas of the public services. The NHS is protected, it | :01:19. | :01:22. | |
has a ring fenced budget that rises in line with inflation. Other areas | :01:23. | :01:27. | |
that are not protected will face cuts of 25%, so this is just an | :01:28. | :01:30. | |
early taste of how difficult things will get next year on the other side | :01:31. | :01:35. | |
of the Spending Review. I want to put something to you that the | :01:36. | :01:38. | |
cheaper the defence staff said to me, not about the NHS, he would be | :01:39. | :01:45. | |
worried if Mr Trident Macca delete Corbin's views on Trident became | :01:46. | :01:49. | |
Labour policy -- Jeremy Corbyn's views on Trident became Labour | :01:50. | :01:52. | |
policy, that he would never press the button. Let's hear what Richard | :01:53. | :01:57. | |
Houghton had to say. The whole thing about deterrence rest on the court | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
Macca delete -- rest on the use. If you say you are never going to use | :02:04. | :02:08. | |
it, I say you use it every minute of every day and the purpose of the | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
deterrent is you don't have to use it because you successfully deter. | :02:12. | :02:16. | |
So no point in spending billions and billions if our enemies think we | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then | :02:21. | :02:20. | |
will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then completely | :02:21. | :02:23. | |
undermined. Isn't that the point, if you have | :02:24. | :02:27. | |
the deterrent, you say you will use it, even if you might not. If you | :02:28. | :02:30. | |
don't have it, you save the money. What is the logic of having it and | :02:31. | :02:36. | |
saying you will not use it? I think Jeremy was probably answering a | :02:37. | :02:40. | |
hypothetical question. He has been clear that the Labour Party is going | :02:41. | :02:44. | |
to have a review of its policy. I am somebody who welcomes that review, | :02:45. | :02:48. | |
to be honest. I understand that, but my point is you can have a review | :02:49. | :02:52. | |
and say we won't have the deterrent or we will have the deterrent. What | :02:53. | :02:55. | |
is the logic of saying we will have it but won't use it? As I say, I | :02:56. | :03:01. | |
think Jeremy was answering a hypothetical question. I think it is | :03:02. | :03:09. | |
a difficult question. His views on nuclear weapons are long held. The | :03:10. | :03:14. | |
Labour Party needs to go through this review. We need to decide | :03:15. | :03:18. | |
democratically as a party whether we want to commit to the renewal of | :03:19. | :03:23. | |
Trident. At the point at which that decision is taken, Labour Party | :03:24. | :03:27. | |
members will obviously be deciding... Thank you, you can come | :03:28. | :03:28. | |
back and tell me that. There's no Sunday Politics next week | :03:29. | :03:29. | |
because MPs are taking a break from Westminster - but we'll be back | :03:30. | :03:34. | |
on the 22nd November. Remember, if it's Sunday, | :03:35. | :03:36. | |
it's the Sunday Politics - | :03:37. | :03:39. |