08/11/2015 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


08/11/2015

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As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over

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Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend WAS the target of

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a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond.

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We will have the latest from each at and Russia. -- Egypt.

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Are we now on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist

:01:00.:01:02.

David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU

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if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation,

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Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be

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And the row over a new contract for junior doctors in England

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And coming up here: action,

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Is a deal to save Stormont now likely within days?

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We will have the latest on the negotiations.

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Sinn Fein and the UUP on next year's centenary commemorations.

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And with me, as always, the three journalists that help make this show

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the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert!

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It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking

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But they may well bring a tear to your eye.

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So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have

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been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about

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their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November.

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David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the

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European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants

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to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership.

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The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that

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he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more

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But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his

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strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants,

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Whether they believe him is another matter.

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This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this

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The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic

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This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the

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European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is

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an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our

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prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century.

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If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum.

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That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening?

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There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most

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likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move

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the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for

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non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical

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institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable,

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the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does

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your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they

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are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic

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regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a

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year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum. You

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get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking

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for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be

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very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he

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can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in

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work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic

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principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a

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nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to

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that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he

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fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will

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hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip

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Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic

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legislation and it does look like the ban on EU migrants claiming in

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work benefits for four years, the Government will they would thereby

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codify some recent European Court judgments that have gone in favour

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of the UK and not embedded in treaty change, but the hard language about

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treaty change, the reason they are standing soaked up, is George

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Osborne is absolutely confident that he is going to get a treaty change

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agreement, protections for the Euro outs and Britain will get an opt out

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from an ever closer union. George Osborne's the is that the protection

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for the Euro outs is the most important thing he can get the

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benefit of Britain but he knows politically the campaign, the most

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important thing he has to get those migrant benefit restrictions. We

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will see what he says on Tuesday, that is when the speech is being

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made. A senior US government official is

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quoted today by CNN saying they are "99.9% certain" that the 224

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passengers aboard the Russian jet which crashed into the Sinai Desert

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last Saturday were the victims That's the view in London as well

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as Washington and now, A memorial service has been held

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today in the Russian city of St Petersburg, where the charter

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flight was heading, while Moscow draws up plans to repatriate 80,000

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of its holidaymakers from various locations in Egypt, after it

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suspended all flights there, following in the wake of Britain's

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decision to suspend flights from Sharm el-Sheikh where thousands of

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British citizens are still stranded. The downing of the flight is

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a tragedy for those who lost their lives, and an inconvenience

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for those stuck in Sharm. But its geopolitical significance

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will be massive if it represents the emergence of Islamic State,

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much better funded and organised than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group

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capable of hitting targets far from In a moment, we will speak to Steve

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Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First, we are joined by Sally Nabil from

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Sharm el-Sheikh. Does the Egyptian Government Phil Borley get

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now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed

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another Russians have banned all flights to Egypt except to get

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people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The

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Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an

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economic perspective. Tourism is very important to the economy, it is

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a lifeline to the Egyptian economy, which is already in a bad shape and

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the tourism industry depends mainly on Russia and Britain, so the fact

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that no more to wrists, from Russia or Britain, will be coming to Egypt

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is a huge blow to tourism here and Egypt needs foreign currency and it

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depends on tourist spot that mainly, so it is a major blow to the

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industry and put the Government in a tight situation. On the other hand,

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the way the Egyptians have handled security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport

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was a matter of great concern and criticism from different countries

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around the world, even the tourists I have spoken to, they told us when

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they first arrived, the security measures were a mess, so now the

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measures have been tightened, some to wrists I spoke to yesterday told

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me it makes them feel better -- some to tourist. If the President Sese

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Government is feeling beleaguered in Cairo and will take another economic

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hit because of the tourism, can we expect further crackdown on the

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Sinai province terrorist groups? It is hard to tell at the moment, but

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the Sinai military operation has been going on for nearly two years

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now and every now and then, we hear about major attacks carried by

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mainly the IS affiliated group called the Sinai province, so the

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fact that the group have operated in Sinai the nearly two years, it seems

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the insurgency group is still gaining momentum and if it happens

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to be true they managed to smuggle a bomb on board the plane, it is a

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major blow to the security operators. Sally Nabil, thank you.

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Let's go to St Petersburg, we are joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there

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any indication yet of how, assuming that it is shown to be a terrorist

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attack, any indication of how Vladimir Putin is going to respond?

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No, not yet. I think it is important to remember that despite the growing

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suspicion that this was a bomb, the official Kremlin line still is that

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it is keeping an open mind about this disaster, it is treating all

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theories equally and the Kremlin says the fact that it has suspended

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all flights to Egypt does not mean it favours the terror theory over

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any other. Having said that, if it is proven to be a bomb, then judging

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by the way President Putin has responded in the past to terror

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attacks, I think we can expect a forceful response from him. How is

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the domestic politics? I know it is hard to tell, because the media is

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so controlled by the Kremlin, but is this an opportunity for Mr Putin to

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further strengthen his position with a tougher crackdown, or is there

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their fear in the Kremlin that having casualties as a result of his

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war on terror will not make him very popular? It is an interesting

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question. I remember back in 2004, when there was a string of terror

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attacks on Russian soil, there were bombs in the Moscow Metro, two

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planes bombed out of the sky and the year ended with the school siege in

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Beslan, where 330 people were killed. None of that seemed to dent

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Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite the opposite, he used it to

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strengthen the power of the Kremlin. Now, you could argue that if this

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doesn't prove to have been a bomb, that could undermine the narrative

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that the Kremlin has been pushing domestically about its military

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operation in Syria. In other words, Russia has been saying it has been

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carrying out air strikes in Syria to boost national security in Russia,

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to destroy terrorists so they couldn't come to Russia and kill

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people there, that narrative will be seriously undermined. But whether

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Russians would connect the dots and say, President Putin said we would

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be safer but we clearly are not, I don't think that would happen,

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because the Kremlin control so tightly the media here, particularly

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television, and television is the key to influencing public opinion.

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So if the Kremlin was to change the narrative to something more like we

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have been attacked, we are the victims of terror, we need to carry

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on our battle against international terrorism, I think the Russian

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public would support that and from the people I have spoken to on the

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streets of St Petersburg this morning, I haven't heard a word of

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criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most people have said to me, I understand

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Russia is at threat of terror attacks and they don't seem to

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connect what may have happened to the Russian air bus with Russia's

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military operation in Syria. Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg.

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We're joined now by the foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall,

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Dr Domitilla Sagramoso, an expert in Russian security

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And joining us from our Plymouth studio is the

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He sits on the Commons Defence Committee, and is

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Tim Marshall, if, as the intelligence suggests, this attack

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was coordinated with Islamic State leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates

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in the Sinai called soon I province, it means Islamic State has

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the capability to plot mass casualty attacks outside of Syria and Iraq --

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called Sinai province. I think in the future, they will be able to do

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it globally and this is the first sign of them doing it outside of the

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countries they operate in. The head of the FSB came back the lead met

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Putin on Friday and Putin immediately set ground the planes,

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that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is

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Russia and Germany and France in the amount of tourists there. President

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Sisi has been to Moscow three times since he was elected. He is trying

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to pull Russia back from America. So it is difficult for the Egyptians

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and Russians to come back out to openly unsaved. So to come back to

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your original point, I think it is pretty clear that the Isis affiliate

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in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in Iraq. They are under a lot of

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pressure from the Russians, 20% of the bombing was against Syria. They

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have told their affiliate in the Sinai, you are the ones who can do

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it from you do the operation, they have killed the Russians and the

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Russians have to respond, I agree with what the Moscow correspondent

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said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and

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response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if what we are saying is

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true and it was a planned attack by Islamic State, it takes IS into what

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is called full spectrum terrorist activity and it is better financed

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than Al-Qaeda, it is better resourced and organised in Syria and

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Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was sitting in a cave in Afghanistan,

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this takes the global war on terrorism to a whole new level.

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This threat is existential. You can see, if this is proved to be

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something that has originated from so-called Islamic State, you can see

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their strategic region. This is why the Prime Minister has been going on

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about this for so long. We have to do something about so-called Islamic

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State because the threat will only get closer. We see this great

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outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach. We

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have had 30 of our own terrorists massacred in Tunisia.

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I understand. Is the British response which the Prime Minister

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has not managed to get Pollard to agree to on deploying eight Tornado

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jets into Syria, is that really adequate given what you have called

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an existential threat? We need to do what we are asked to

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do by the coalition. It is not a question of how much manpower or

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machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground.

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We have been asked to provide those Tornado jets because they have a

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specific tactical and technical capability to the coalition are

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asked when it comes to dynamic targeting within Syria. We should

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stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight.

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The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no

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strategy, is misinformed. We should have got past this by now.

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What does this mean for Russia and Mr Putin?

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To a certain extent, this has brought the ball back to Russia. I

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would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the

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Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's

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paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their

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argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock

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because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and

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western parts of the country weather and they understand that.

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On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground

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troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he

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will have another response to the bombing.

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He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups

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against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to

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Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of

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bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday.

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There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see

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more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react.

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The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the

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American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the

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immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign

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policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human

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emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support

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more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria,

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Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries,

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and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda

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and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves.

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Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is

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the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the

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Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated,

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that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because

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it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the

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West. Is that a response series SATs is

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there a response seriously adequate to this?

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Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we

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should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all

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still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of

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foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the

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drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of

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life is to have no strategic involvement overseas.

:19:26.:19:29.

If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it

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demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we

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have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come

:19:37.:19:40.

closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to

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happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that.

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We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy,

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this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him.

:19:55.:20:00.

He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's

:20:01.:20:04.

foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from

:20:05.:20:10.

the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the

:20:11.:20:13.

Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks

:20:14.:20:17.

that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in

:20:18.:20:23.

Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and

:20:24.:20:27.

eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one

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other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now

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talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack

:20:40.:20:44.

was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus

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has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in

:20:50.:20:54.

Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why

:20:55.:20:59.

not the people who were under the bombs?

:21:00.:21:01.

It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a

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certain extent the Russians might not have been the initial main

:21:06.:21:11.

objective of the attack, but to have an impact on Egypt and the Egyptian

:21:12.:21:16.

tourism industry, because a country suffering the most from this attack

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is actually going to be Egypt. Because its economy is so weak. We

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had to be more careful when we analysed these groups and the

:21:27.:21:30.

connections, and not immediately assume that Isis is giving this

:21:31.:21:35.

order. I disagree with that interpretation.

:21:36.:21:38.

Tim Marshall, here is the rub at the moment. We now face this potential

:21:39.:21:42.

far wider or dangerous better resourced terrorist threat than ever

:21:43.:21:48.

before. It happens at a time when we want to get together to deal with

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this but the British are not bombing in Syria. Our allies America have

:21:55.:21:59.

stopped bombing, Saudi Arabia, UAE, has devoted its jets, Bahrain has

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not been part of anything since debris, the Saudis since September,

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Jordan since August. America which is half-hearted in this, is almost

:22:10.:22:14.

on its own in dealing with this now. And with a president not keen on

:22:15.:22:20.

doing this, who was pushed into it. The British situation is different.

:22:21.:22:24.

The politics of the matter, it is clear, is not in the House of

:22:25.:22:27.

Commons. The SNP, Labour, Tory rebels, will

:22:28.:22:32.

vote it down. We were talking earlier, because of a rock, we are

:22:33.:22:38.

not going to do without Parliamentary vote. -- Iraq.

:22:39.:22:50.

The French are putting their aircraft carrier back into the Gulf.

:22:51.:22:53.

It was that the two months and they are selling it back from another

:22:54.:22:55.

operation. At the request of the Americans. In

:22:56.:23:01.

2007, since then, the Americans do not have a carrier in the Gulf.

:23:02.:23:07.

The Tornado jets would make a difference. To say, we as a culture

:23:08.:23:16.

with commonalities in our belief systems, we are standing together.

:23:17.:23:20.

At the moment, they are not. We will leave it there.

:23:21.:23:27.

The uneasy truce between supporters of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn

:23:28.:23:30.

and the majority of Labour MPs is under renewed strain this week.

:23:31.:23:34.

First, MPs from the right of the party swept the board

:23:35.:23:37.

at elections for posts that will give them a role in making policy.

:23:38.:23:40.

Then Mr Corbyn's senior policy adviser, a young man called

:23:41.:23:42.

Andrew Fisher, was suspended from the party, apparently after Blairite

:23:43.:23:45.

MPs complained he had backed an anarchist at the general election

:23:46.:23:47.

We already know that at least one MP wants to trigger

:23:48.:23:56.

a leadership election if next May's election results are underwhelming.

:23:57.:24:01.

But, if there is a contest, how would it work, and what hurdles

:24:02.:24:04.

would face Mr Corbyn and his potential challengers?

:24:05.:24:06.

Giles has been delving into the Labour Party rule book.

:24:07.:24:08.

Be warned, there is flash photography in his film.

:24:09.:24:18.

That some Labour MPs did not and do not want Jeremy Corbyn

:24:19.:24:21.

That there are internal tensions between some MPs and Jeremy Corbyn's

:24:22.:24:27.

That Labour has not removed a sitting leader since 1935 is a fact.

:24:28.:24:37.

And that Jeremy Corbyn won the ballot to become leader with

:24:38.:24:40.

a whisker off 60% of the vote is also a fact.

:24:41.:24:48.

What is surprising about these facts is that it's Jeremy Corbyn's team

:24:49.:24:51.

themselves who are very keen to see the rules surrounding any challenge

:24:52.:24:54.

Because, when it comes to the rule book, the mechanism for such

:24:55.:25:01.

It starts well enough with chapter four, clause two, B, two:

:25:02.:25:11.

The wording of this clause is, in fact, already out-of-date as

:25:12.:25:23.

of last conference, as any MP who can get 20% of support from

:25:24.:25:28.

Labour Parliamentarians, that's MPs and now MEPs which, as of now means

:25:29.:25:31.

Whether there is anyone who could do that at the moment is

:25:32.:25:38.

a very moot point, however much some might wish there was.

:25:39.:25:41.

If they get them, they then write to the Party General Secretary, and

:25:42.:25:44.

Then Labour's National Executive Committee decides the timetable and

:25:45.:25:53.

The problem is, nowhere in the rules is it specified what happens next.

:25:54.:26:00.

It seems, within party circles, depending on their views,

:26:01.:26:02.

The challenger or challengers are put on the ballot with

:26:03.:26:12.

But the incumbent leader then needs 15% of Labour Parliamentarians to

:26:13.:26:19.

nominate them so they too appear on it.

:26:20.:26:31.

He is not popular inside the PLP, that is very clear.

:26:32.:26:36.

So, if he's not going to go through automatically,

:26:37.:26:39.

he has to knock on doors and get people to sign the form.

:26:40.:26:42.

The challenger is on the ballot, others may also seek 20% nomination

:26:43.:26:47.

threshold, and they too appear, but the leader is automatically included

:26:48.:26:59.

The idea, the incumbent, somebody with 60% of the electorate in the

:27:00.:27:02.

Labour Party, might not be on the ballot paper, yet someone at best

:27:03.:27:05.

on the fringes of the Labour Party could be, is obviously unthinkable.

:27:06.:27:08.

Only the named challenger goes forward

:27:09.:27:13.

with their 20% nomination, and it is a straight binary head-to-head with

:27:14.:27:16.

the leader who again is automatically in the contest.

:27:17.:27:22.

Mr Corbyn might need more protective gear from scenario one and two, but

:27:23.:27:28.

this programme understands option three is what the current leader's

:27:29.:27:33.

team and the party solicitor think is the correct interpretation.

:27:34.:27:38.

Of course, any talk of leadership challenges

:27:39.:27:40.

might well upset the 60% of those who clearly wanted Jeremy Corbyn to

:27:41.:27:45.

not only lead the party but lead it into the 2020 general election.

:27:46.:27:49.

This wouldn't happen in any other organisation where you

:27:50.:27:54.

have a new CEO judged on metrics that happened in the

:27:55.:27:57.

Let us give him a bit more time before we start mounting challenges

:27:58.:28:02.

or talking about challenges, because he does have an overwhelming mandate

:28:03.:28:05.

Nonetheless, in bars and offices across Westminster, some Labour MPs

:28:06.:28:10.

are thinking into the night how they can stop Jeremy Corbyn.

:28:11.:28:15.

And some have no desire to remove him,

:28:16.:28:20.

but think the idea of challenging any leader is important as an idea.

:28:21.:28:25.

As a historian, I realise the Labour Party has a major problem

:28:26.:28:28.

And I want a situation where it can say

:28:29.:28:37.

they are not doing a decent job, and therefore they have got to go.

:28:38.:28:40.

Because if he had won, he's there for two or three years.

:28:41.:28:48.

So, if the rules were clarified, would it make

:28:49.:28:51.

I can't see it happening for a very long time.

:28:52.:28:57.

At the moment, the only way to be able to get rid

:28:58.:28:59.

of Jeremy Corbyn, if that is what you want, is to convince people he

:29:00.:29:03.

I see absolutely no evidence of that happening at all.

:29:04.:29:10.

Of course that doesn't mean someone won't try.

:29:11.:29:19.

Pole, even if the Parliamentary party had the stomach for a coup

:29:20.:29:27.

against Mr Corbyn, it would result in civil war within the party

:29:28.:29:30.

because the next election would go back to the same electorate that

:29:31.:29:32.

elected Mr Corbin? could happen but if he was an

:29:33.:29:46.

absolute disaster, losing by-elections, and by disaster,

:29:47.:29:50.

significantly worse than Ed Miliband's results. After all,

:29:51.:29:54.

Labour doesn't get rid of its leaders. Until something of that

:29:55.:29:58.

kind happens, where you have a really persuasive argument that

:29:59.:30:01.

there is not a hope in hell of him winning the next election, that

:30:02.:30:06.

might bring the party round, but any rebels had to bring enough up the

:30:07.:30:11.

party round to say, look, winning is what really matters and this guy

:30:12.:30:16.

isn't going to win for us. Are there people talking, plotting coup is

:30:17.:30:22.

already? Of course, the counterrevolutionaries, and they are

:30:23.:30:25.

delighted with themselves in the PLP, they have a serious of

:30:26.:30:31.

modernisers who have been elected to the chairmanship of these committees

:30:32.:30:34.

-- a series of modernisers. 10% of them visited bag of loot voted for

:30:35.:30:40.

this candle. The problem is, they have the power to trigger a

:30:41.:30:45.

leadership contest but do not have the power to decide the contest,

:30:46.:30:51.

that will be for the people who overwhelmingly voted for Mr Corbyn

:30:52.:30:54.

and I agree, it will take up catastrophic meltdown over the next

:30:55.:31:00.

year to get the contest taking place, but even if you had that

:31:01.:31:02.

contest, I still think you will find, because he has only been there

:31:03.:31:06.

a year, his supporters will say it is not our fault, give him more time

:31:07.:31:12.

and you will find even in those circumstances, Jeremy Corbyn or

:31:13.:31:15.

Jeremy Corbyn person would win. Mr Corbyn does sometimes create

:31:16.:31:20.

unnecessary problems for himself. Let me show you this clip from

:31:21.:31:24.

Andrew Fisher, he was a political adviser to Mr Corbyn. He has been

:31:25.:31:28.

suspended from the party but he is still working for the Labour

:31:29.:31:30.

leader. One of its problems is this is what he had to say.

:31:31.:31:33.

I had the most excruciating half-hour of my life where I was

:31:34.:31:36.

I sometimes have nightmares, very violent, bloody nightmares

:31:37.:31:39.

But it was excruciating and he said, look, we got to explain to people

:31:40.:31:44.

there is more to life than moving from the bedroom to the sofa.

:31:45.:31:48.

That was his attitude towards people who are unemployed.

:31:49.:31:51.

For this plummy accented, Oxbridge-educated Tory

:31:52.:31:55.

in a red rosette, frankly, to be saying that, was the most

:31:56.:31:58.

It took every sinew of my self-discipline not to thump him.

:31:59.:32:09.

Though Mr Fischer is no stranger to defend himself, having called other

:32:10.:32:17.

Labour members vile gits and scumbags. You wonder why Mr Corbyn

:32:18.:32:21.

feels he needs someone like this. And if you think Mr Corbyn is trying

:32:22.:32:24.

to prevent an internal push against himself, why he would making the

:32:25.:32:31.

late make several of the personnel decisions he has -- why he would be

:32:32.:32:35.

making several other personnel decisions. If you are hoping to get

:32:36.:32:39.

him out, your hub would have to be that the new members that have

:32:40.:32:41.

changed the composition of the Labour Party are not hardened,

:32:42.:32:45.

militia style activists that will defend him to the last ditch, but

:32:46.:32:49.

are dreamers and kids who got excited over the summer and will

:32:50.:32:53.

break away in the coming years and will realise that internal party

:32:54.:32:56.

warfare means turning up to tedious meetings on a wet Thursday night and

:32:57.:33:01.

they will not be there to protect him in the worst instances. I think

:33:02.:33:05.

Polly is right, he won't go unless he is an obvious disaster, but I

:33:06.:33:08.

don't think he will come across as an obvious disaster until the spring

:33:09.:33:12.

of 2020, by which time it is too late and Labour have already lost

:33:13.:33:19.

the last of the late next election. -- lost the next election.

:33:20.:33:21.

It's coming up to one o'clock, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:33:22.:33:23.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:33:24.:33:33.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:33:34.:33:36.

On this Remembrance Sunday, as wreaths are laid to remember

:33:37.:33:39.

the war dead, how will the parties here approach next

:33:40.:33:41.

year's centenaries of the Battle of the Somme and the Easter Rising?

:33:42.:33:46.

the Ulster Unionist Councillor Doug Beattie

:33:47.:33:49.

and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley.

:33:50.:33:51.

Also today, with their thoughts on that private

:33:52.:33:53.

meeting between David Cameron and the First and Deputy First

:33:54.:33:56.

Ministers, my guests of the day are the academic Cathy Gormley-Heenan

:33:57.:33:59.

We are told he keeps a very close eye on the talks at

:34:00.:34:12.

Stormont, though the Prime Minister only tends to get personally

:34:13.:34:15.

The First and Deputy First Ministers held a private meeting with

:34:16.:34:19.

David Cameron in Downing Street on Friday afternoon.

:34:20.:34:21.

It is understood the discussions centred around Stormont's finances.

:34:22.:34:25.

So, does that development signal the likelihood

:34:26.:34:27.

The Secretary of State wasn't giving much away when I asked her

:34:28.:34:32.

about political progress on The View on Thursday night.

:34:33.:34:40.

And that the Cenotaph this morning in both us, she was asked about the

:34:41.:34:45.

significance of Freddie's meeting. I cannot comment on that meeting, it

:34:46.:34:49.

was a private meeting. The Prime Minister has obviously been

:34:50.:34:52.

following the process of the talks very carefully. It was no trouble

:34:53.:34:59.

for him to meet the First and 51st Ministers for an update. But I think

:35:00.:35:03.

it was useful meeting, and it is still going to be a crucial week.

:35:04.:35:10.

The Taoiseach has said the deal is on for this week. I am very hopeful

:35:11.:35:15.

and happy with the reports I am getting. That the deal is on here. I

:35:16.:35:22.

hope it can be included successfully in the next couple of days. I am in

:35:23.:35:30.

Enniskillen today, I will be talking to the Prime Minister in Downing

:35:31.:35:32.

Street tomorrow and afterwards I will make arrangements to meet with

:35:33.:35:35.

the First and Deputy First Minister and I hope we can have this

:35:36.:35:40.

concluded. Enda Kenny, talking there in Enniskillen.

:35:41.:35:41.

Let's hear what Cathy Gormley-Heenan and Newton Emerson make

:35:42.:35:44.

The situation is developing, as we are on air. Newton, I suppose we

:35:45.:35:55.

shouldn't be surprised a lot of people have been talking about

:35:56.:35:58.

choreography in the background over the last week or two, it seems now

:35:59.:36:04.

that a deal is on. Yes, and it will be roughly the day it was available

:36:05.:36:07.

last year and the year before and various other deals, but what seems

:36:08.:36:11.

different this time is that it is not the Sicily and all party deal.

:36:12.:36:16.

It seems to be between Sinn Fein and the DUP. -- not necessarily. That

:36:17.:36:21.

changes the dynamic. It could have ramifications for how Stormont feels

:36:22.:36:24.

and operates in the future. What do you make of the fact that Enda Kenny

:36:25.:36:29.

is saying this morning he is due to meet David Cameron tomorrow and then

:36:30.:36:34.

he will meet with Martin McGuinness and Peter Robinson tomorrow night? I

:36:35.:36:38.

suspect that is to talk about finances as well, it was reported

:36:39.:36:42.

earlier that the DUP and Sinn Fein had presented a paper although

:36:43.:36:45.

didn't table it as part of the formal negotiations, to ask the

:36:46.:36:51.

Irish Government for 550 million euros so I suspect the conversation

:36:52.:36:55.

tomorrow will be about that. As much as the conversation on Friday with

:36:56.:36:59.

David Cameron was probably about finance rather than the mechanics of

:37:00.:37:04.

the agreement. What do you make of Newton's point, it doesn't have to

:37:05.:37:09.

be, she confirmed this, it doesn't have to be a 5 party deal. What will

:37:10.:37:13.

happen if a deal is reached is that it will be presented to the Assembly

:37:14.:37:23.

as a legislative consent motion. It means that those issues will be

:37:24.:37:27.

dealt with by a single, unified unitary bill that will be taken

:37:28.:37:29.

forward by Westminster. The fact the DUP and Sinn Fein her -- are the

:37:30.:37:35.

July just parties will mean that despite any debate, the legislative

:37:36.:37:38.

consent motion will pass. Does not really matter the Ulster Unionists

:37:39.:37:44.

and the SDLP are left outside the tent? What is presumably critical is

:37:45.:37:48.

that the DUP and Sinn Fein are inside. Yes, that is all that

:37:49.:37:52.

matters. The only reason they ever cared about the smaller parties

:37:53.:37:57.

being on board is to have tribal cover when they do a deal with each

:37:58.:38:01.

other. If both of those parties have now done a deal, 1 of the things

:38:02.:38:06.

that means is that the DUP is no longer so worried about protecting

:38:07.:38:11.

its flank. What we're looking at is a Stormont Castle deal between the

:38:12.:38:15.

two main parties, rather than a Stormont House deal between the five

:38:16.:38:19.

parties? Yes, exactly. That is OK in the run-up to the election, the

:38:20.:38:24.

smaller parties will say that this was not an inclusive agreement, that

:38:25.:38:28.

all the parties had signed up to. What about the difficult issues? The

:38:29.:38:35.

Secretary of State confirmed that national security veto continues to

:38:36.:38:40.

be an issue for nationalists. There are outstanding issues for what the

:38:41.:38:42.

rough and legacy, could some of those issues be dealt with later or

:38:43.:38:46.

does this have to be a deal that includes everything, where all the

:38:47.:38:51.

detail is tied down? I don't see why it has do include all of the issues.

:38:52.:38:55.

I suspect there will be a form of words to cover the issues. I suspect

:38:56.:38:58.

that Sinn Fein has raised some of the non-financial issues to help

:38:59.:39:02.

cover its own moves on welfare reform. It is interesting to see

:39:03.:39:09.

what appears to be a more relaxed approach on the part of Enda Kenny

:39:10.:39:15.

today, saying I think a deal is on. The Secretary of State was very

:39:16.:39:17.

cagey about it, she said that a deal was possible but she would not say

:39:18.:39:23.

that it was probable. Admittedly, we are further down the road, but does

:39:24.:39:28.

it tell you that the Nationalists are more relaxed about this and

:39:29.:39:33.

Unionists? No, it tells me that they have been listening and reading the

:39:34.:39:37.

books on how to negotiate, because there are keeping civil underpinning

:39:38.:39:40.

all successful negotiations to create a win - win solution. One of

:39:41.:39:46.

those is no leaks, no offering ultimatums, no going to the press

:39:47.:39:49.

before you go to the parties, and listening more than talking. We have

:39:50.:39:54.

finally seen evidence of that bust up the fact that Theresa Villiers

:39:55.:39:56.

did not say what had happened on Friday night speaks volumes.

:39:57.:40:01.

Interesting to hear your thoughts, we will talk more on that later.

:40:02.:40:03.

Leading politicians from the Republic have joined

:40:04.:40:04.

Remembrance services here to honour the war dead.

:40:05.:40:07.

The Taoiseach, Enda Kenny, was in Enniskillen,

:40:08.:40:09.

and earlier this morning the Irish Minister for Foreign Affairs

:40:10.:40:11.

joined the Secretary of State and other dignitaries to lay a

:40:12.:40:13.

So, as we approach 2016 and the marking of two major historical

:40:14.:40:21.

anniversaries on both sides of the border, the Battle of the Somme

:40:22.:40:23.

and the Easter Rising, how will the parties approach the commemorations?

:40:24.:40:28.

The Ulster Unionist Party has revealed it is likely to be present

:40:29.:40:31.

in Dublin at some point next Easter, potentially holding its own event.

:40:32.:40:35.

Joining me are Doug Beattie, a UUP councillor in Craigavon,

:40:36.:40:38.

and the former Sinn Fein Lord Mayor of Belfast, Tom Hartley.

:40:39.:40:45.

You are both very welcome to the programme. Thank you for joining us.

:40:46.:40:51.

Doug Beattie, just before we get into this, can I ask you for the

:40:52.:40:55.

latest of elements, does it seem to you that a deal is going to happen

:40:56.:41:02.

this week and possibly your party might be outside the tent? Let's be

:41:03.:41:07.

clear that Sinn Fein and the DUP are doing a deal behind closed doors and

:41:08.:41:12.

the Osterley Unionist party are being held out. When we see the

:41:13.:41:15.

deal, I think Mike Nesbitt will see if it is a deal that is good for the

:41:16.:41:18.

people of Northern Ireland, and if it is we will sign up. If it is not,

:41:19.:41:24.

we most definitely will not. The fact is, they are doing a deal

:41:25.:41:28.

regardless of the input from the other parties, it is beyond me.

:41:29.:41:34.

Let's talk about Remembrance Sunday and the commemorations more

:41:35.:41:37.

generally. Today, Remembrance Sunday is still a contested space here. As

:41:38.:41:43.

a former soldier, what does it mean for you? It means everything, it is

:41:44.:41:49.

the 1 day of the year, collective Dave where we have the opportunity

:41:50.:41:53.

to remember and reflect. But it is a very private thing for individuals.

:41:54.:41:58.

Sadly for me it is a private, to remember and reflect on friends and

:41:59.:42:01.

colleagues and families who have passed away, and for those

:42:02.:42:06.

ex-combatants who have died and the many thousands of civilians who have

:42:07.:42:09.

passed away over conflicts past and present. It is very private. Before

:42:10.:42:14.

we have from Tom Hartley, have advanced at this stage are the

:42:15.:42:18.

Ulster Unionist plans to be in Dublin next Easter? Well, we have

:42:19.:42:24.

been sending representatives down to remember our war dead from the

:42:25.:42:30.

Easter Rebellion, for a number of years. We are now looking at how we

:42:31.:42:33.

can do that further, how we can engage politically about the

:42:34.:42:38.

repercussions of what happened in 1916 and the relevance they have

:42:39.:42:42.

today. What happened 100 years ago, nearly, has absolute relevance to

:42:43.:42:48.

what is happening today. Tom Hartley, do you welcome the Ulster

:42:49.:42:51.

Unionist being in Dublin discussing the Easter Rising, but possibly with

:42:52.:42:54.

their own event and possibly putting forward their own interpretation of

:42:55.:42:59.

what is wrong with the Nationalists view of the Easter Rising? Very much

:43:00.:43:03.

so. In fact, I think it is necessary. I think we need to

:43:04.:43:07.

address the Quebec city of our history. It is complex and often

:43:08.:43:14.

difficult. -- address the complexities. I want to see a

:43:15.:43:17.

process where people can engage and talk to one another, here different

:43:18.:43:22.

views, for instance next year I am starting to organise a number of

:43:23.:43:26.

lectures, one of which will be a Unionist critique of 1916, another

:43:27.:43:31.

will look at the communities of Donegal and Monaghan and Cabannes,

:43:32.:43:34.

who were really effective immediately after the rising. --

:43:35.:43:39.

caravan. I will be looking at how we replace rouble like Roger Casement

:43:40.:43:49.

-- we place people like. They were raised as Northern Protestants but

:43:50.:43:55.

Roger Casement ended up republican. Can we look at that just outside the

:43:56.:43:59.

normal way that people look at this? But there will be discordant

:44:00.:44:05.

and dissonant voices. You may hear things from Doug Beattie and others

:44:06.:44:09.

that you don't like and don't agree with. I would argue that is

:44:10.:44:15.

democracy. But is part of life, part of history. We are not

:44:16.:44:20.

one-dimensional. I keep saying history doesn't run along parallel

:44:21.:44:24.

lines in Ireland, it is complex, layered and difficult. But it is our

:44:25.:44:27.

history and I think we have doing get with it. Do you need to separate

:44:28.:44:34.

out that debate from acts of remembrance? There are two separate

:44:35.:44:38.

things going on, one is a historical discussion, the other is remembering

:44:39.:44:42.

people who lost their lives in conflict. Absolutely, there is even

:44:43.:44:49.

more to that, and ideological and political depth, if you look at the

:44:50.:44:54.

1916 rising, there is an ideological questions still to be asked, because

:44:55.:44:59.

the proclamation had a distinct set of principles it wanted to put out,

:45:00.:45:06.

which Unionists would clearly be opposed to. I suppose the question

:45:07.:45:10.

is, broadly, should Unionists really be getting involved in marking the

:45:11.:45:16.

centenary of the Easter Rising? The DUP's line is commemorations of the

:45:17.:45:19.

Easter Rising will be important to many people but they are not

:45:20.:45:23.

something with which many Unionists will feel much affinity or are

:45:24.:45:28.

likely to participate in. Alistair said to me that the rising was

:45:29.:45:31.

"foreign, grubby, failed rebellion in some other place". -- Jim

:45:32.:45:38.

Allister. He speaks for himself and the TUV Blatt he might speak for

:45:39.:45:45.

some members of the UUP. You have to remember that the 1916 rebellion

:45:46.:45:49.

took place on UK soil. It was a battle held on UK soil, so we have

:45:50.:45:54.

to look at it, and see what the consequences were, and we have to

:45:55.:45:59.

remember. If you were to ask me, what do you think? I would say that

:46:00.:46:03.

everyone has the right to remember what is important to them and I

:46:04.:46:07.

would be happy to go down to Dublin and be involved in remembering all

:46:08.:46:12.

combatants and civilians, but not in Northern Ireland. Tom Hartley, can I

:46:13.:46:18.

ask about the Irish republican plans to mark the centenary of the Battle

:46:19.:46:23.

of the Somme? It involved the 36th Ulster Division, mostly from

:46:24.:46:28.

Northern Ireland. Is it right that the Irish Government acknowledges

:46:29.:46:30.

the significance of the Battle of the Somme and Ulstermen who died

:46:31.:46:36.

with Mac yes, because it is a major historical event. We have then to

:46:37.:46:44.

address it. It may be a challenge, but it needs addressed. We can't

:46:45.:46:48.

ignore it. History has happened. We have to engage with it. There will

:46:49.:46:53.

be those who will engage through talking, those who will engage

:46:54.:46:55.

through commemoration, but I think what we need in all of this is to

:46:56.:47:01.

say, let's stop hurting each other over our dead, let's bring a degree

:47:02.:47:06.

of dignity. One of the things I notice about history conversations

:47:07.:47:12.

is, people often get together and try and browbeat each other, to say,

:47:13.:47:17.

your history doesn't really matter. In fact, we can learn through these

:47:18.:47:23.

events to engage, have differences of opinion and be able to talk about

:47:24.:47:26.

different aspects and interpretations of history. If we

:47:27.:47:31.

come out of next year with a deeper understanding of each other and the

:47:32.:47:34.

dignity of the other, I think it will be a successful year.

:47:35.:47:36.

Is that what it is all about? Accepting that all kinds of things

:47:37.:47:47.

happened 100 years ago that we may like or may not, but an open,

:47:48.:47:52.

honest, respectful discussion is the way for a? Absolutely. Every person

:47:53.:47:57.

that wants the run version of history to be reinforced their

:47:58.:48:01.

another person who is really hungry or those alternative versions of

:48:02.:48:06.

history. Deceit understand why the interpretation might be different.

:48:07.:48:10.

-- to seek to understand. What people saw the consequences of the

:48:11.:48:14.

Easter Rising, and I think it is interesting that the Irish

:48:15.:48:18.

Government in their state-sponsored initiatives have education at the

:48:19.:48:22.

heart of it, putting emphasis on schools and on asking schoolchildren

:48:23.:48:25.

to design a proclamation for the 21st century, with a lot of the

:48:26.:48:29.

social and economic and equality measures underpinning it. So I

:48:30.:48:35.

agree. Newton, are you optimistic that what Doug and Tom want to

:48:36.:48:40.

achieve can and will be achieved? We know that politics both sides of the

:48:41.:48:46.

border, the chances are there will be individuals and parties who will

:48:47.:48:49.

choose to be offended at some of what happens. Of course there will

:48:50.:48:56.

be. Sinn Fein is running its own separate commemoration. But I think

:48:57.:48:59.

it would be as well to make both these commemorations as ecumenical

:49:00.:49:03.

as possible. I am struck by how there has been little reflection of

:49:04.:49:06.

the 50th anniversary of the Easter Rising, which was believed for a

:49:07.:49:10.

long time to have contributed to tensions in Northern Ireland. It fit

:49:11.:49:14.

into republican frustration, Unionists to get as a basis for

:49:15.:49:20.

provocation because there was a very militaristic celebration in the

:49:21.:49:23.

South. We have a much better effort going on in Dublin now but we have

:49:24.:49:26.

to recognise that it is a dangerous moment. You also have to point out

:49:27.:49:30.

that the Northern Ireland Executive release a statement said they had

:49:31.:49:34.

shown great leadership and I know they have been busy with other thing

:49:35.:49:38.

but perhaps that is one of the things that will be picked up again

:49:39.:49:42.

after the conclusion of the talks. How do you legislate... Welcome, you

:49:43.:49:49.

can, but deal the fact that the commemoration good step over the

:49:50.:49:52.

line? You have to have it as inclusive as possible. The mention

:49:53.:49:58.

of an educational basis for this commemoration is the way to go

:49:59.:50:01.

because a synergy look into the history in any detail, including

:50:02.:50:06.

that of the loyalists and the Unionist uprising in Northern

:50:07.:50:08.

Ireland, you realise how multilayered it is. I think that

:50:09.:50:14.

diffuses the situation. Well, complexity is perhaps what will be

:50:15.:50:18.

teased out in the next 12 months. Thank you to all.

:50:19.:50:18.

Now let's pause for a look back at the political week gone past

:50:19.:50:22.

Possible, not probable, the Secretary of State said a deal was

:50:23.:50:38.

not yet done. There is a concluded agreement -- I do not think there is

:50:39.:50:42.

a concluded agreement. It is possible we can get at that stage

:50:43.:50:45.

but I do not think there are that stage. For the 1st time in majority

:50:46.:50:49.

of MLAs voted in favour of same-sex marriage. But the DUP petition of

:50:50.:50:54.

concern blocked the motion. I think those who are against, like myself,

:50:55.:51:00.

on the wrong of history. Nothing changed following yet another

:51:01.:51:04.

academic selection debate. I have two sides of this argument. They are

:51:05.:51:11.

poles apart. It will remain so. We need to have a democratic fail-safe

:51:12.:51:17.

and have to listen to the attitude of local expertise there is in our

:51:18.:51:22.

system. And with arts cuts on the agenda, the Culture Minister used

:51:23.:51:30.

some colourful language. You do have a complete brass neck.

:51:31.:51:34.

Just time for a quick look at what's coming up this week,

:51:35.:51:38.

The parties, we know, have been called to Stormont tomorrow at

:51:39.:51:53.

10:30. We understand that sources suggesting a deal has been pencilled

:51:54.:51:57.

in for Thursday. I will believe it when I see it expect I have no doubt

:51:58.:52:01.

there is a deal but when it comes to precise times and days, there is

:52:02.:52:03.

always something else over the horizon. I asked the Secretary of

:52:04.:52:09.

State, is there a shadow deal that they have to sign up to? She said

:52:10.:52:13.

there is not at this stage. Do you think perhaps later there might be?

:52:14.:52:16.

It is interesting that Peter Robinson's comment said we will have

:52:17.:52:21.

a deal or not in ten days, which is tomorrow. We will see if he is a

:52:22.:52:28.

soothsayer or not! Let's talk about the SDLP. The leadership result due

:52:29.:52:34.

on Saturday. Can Colum Eastwood beat Alasdair McDonnell? What I have

:52:35.:52:37.

heard is he doesn't have the numbers. The interesting thing

:52:38.:52:41.

coming out is the internal report showing it would be the fifth

:52:42.:52:44.

largest party after the next election. That is the first time

:52:45.:52:48.

that the symmetry of the Stormont Executive system will have changed.

:52:49.:52:52.

That is big. What is your assessment of the debate going on within that

:52:53.:52:57.

party, Cathy? I think whoever the leader is after the leadership

:52:58.:53:01.

contest in November, faces a serious challenge. Alistair McDonnell had to

:53:02.:53:05.

explain to the electorate why after four years of rebuilding the party

:53:06.:53:10.

it has continued to have per election results. Colum Eastwood

:53:11.:53:13.

will have to be able to explain to those voting what he is going to do

:53:14.:53:17.

to turn that around. If he was elected, it would be a very short

:53:18.:53:21.

window of opportunity he has to turn things around before the next

:53:22.:53:22.

election. That's it from Sunday Politics

:53:23.:53:23.

for this week. My thanks to Bob Stewart and to

:53:24.:53:26.

Stephen Pound and, with that, The row between junior doctors and

:53:27.:53:32.

Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt has The disagreement centres

:53:33.:53:39.

around a proposed new contract The Government says the existing

:53:40.:53:42.

arrangements are outdated and claims the move will help

:53:43.:53:47.

deliver the Conservative manifesto The British Medical Association,

:53:48.:53:50.

representing junior doctors, says the changes will result in working

:53:51.:53:55.

practices that are unsafe and unfair Any industrial action could involve

:53:56.:53:58.

a walk-out from all but emergency work,

:53:59.:54:05.

in what is likely to be the biggest Well, the Labour Party has called

:54:06.:54:09.

on Mr Hunt to scrap his plans, and the Shadow Health Secretary

:54:10.:54:15.

Heidi Alexander joins us now. Welcome to the programme. Is the

:54:16.:54:26.

Labour Party in favour of the concept of a 7 day a week Health

:54:27.:54:31.

Service? We are but I think you need to understand the barriers that

:54:32.:54:36.

exist in order to provide that service.

:54:37.:54:39.

Jeremy Hunt the Health Secretary has implied that if you change the

:54:40.:54:44.

junior doctors's contract, then in some way that automatically means

:54:45.:54:48.

you have a 7 day NHS. It doesn't. You don't just need junior doctors.

:54:49.:54:52.

They are already working weekends and nights. You need consultant

:54:53.:55:00.

cover, diagnostics support, pharmacists, 24/7 social care.

:55:01.:55:04.

If Jeremy Hunt isn't being honest about the resources he would put in

:55:05.:55:10.

to deliver that 24/7 NHS, then picking a fight with junior doctors

:55:11.:55:14.

which is what he seems determined to do at the moment, will not provide

:55:15.:55:19.

the solution he said it will. If you wanted a proper 7-day-a-week

:55:20.:55:26.

NHS, would you also had to change the junior doctors's contract?

:55:27.:55:33.

I'm not totally convinced that changing their contracts will

:55:34.:55:36.

actually result in more junior doctors being available on the ward.

:55:37.:55:39.

There are some things that should probably...

:55:40.:55:43.

You have said the existing contract is not perfect, do you need to

:55:44.:55:48.

change it in some ways for seven day cover? Along with the things you

:55:49.:55:53.

mentioned. If you listened to what hospital bosses and chief executive

:55:54.:55:58.

say, they are saying very clearly that the junior doctor contract is

:55:59.:56:01.

not the main issue here. There are other things that would

:56:02.:56:04.

need to change. One of the things that really concerns junior doctors

:56:05.:56:08.

is that the proposals that seemed to be on the table at the moment are

:56:09.:56:12.

bad for patient safety, and they are not convinced that the proposals

:56:13.:56:18.

will result in them not working even more excessive and exhausting hours

:56:19.:56:33.

than they at the moment. The contract at the moment has

:56:34.:56:35.

financial penalties built into it which means, if a hospital forces

:56:36.:56:37.

junior doctors to work very long hours, then that hospital is

:56:38.:56:39.

financially penalised. And that system, whilst it may not be

:56:40.:56:42.

perfect, has the broad confidence of junior doctors, and they are very

:56:43.:56:44.

worried this proposal that has come forward in the last couple of days,

:56:45.:56:47.

even though negotiations have been going on for years, will compromise

:56:48.:56:51.

patient safety. Was the BMA right to begin a strike

:56:52.:56:55.

ballot without sitting down with Jeremy Hunt over the new offer? I

:56:56.:57:00.

think the BMA and junior doctors feel that they have been backed into

:57:01.:57:05.

a corner because of the way that Jeremy Hunt has handled these

:57:06.:57:07.

negotiations. He started off by saying that the

:57:08.:57:11.

BMA and junior doctors would have two agreed to 22 out of 23

:57:12.:57:18.

preconditions laid down by the doctors and dentists's remuneration

:57:19.:57:19.

board. He went on to imply, which has

:57:20.:57:26.

angered Junor doctors even more, if you change this contract it will

:57:27.:57:29.

somehow result in lives being saved. And then we have a situation on

:57:30.:57:35.

Wednesday, 24 hours before the ballot of junior doctors is due to

:57:36.:57:41.

start, that he decides the best way to conduct negotiations is to issue

:57:42.:57:43.

a press release from the Department of Health. And that is the best way

:57:44.:57:50.

to conduct negotiations. He has been talking to the BMA since

:57:51.:57:56.

2012, this is not a new problem. He has made an 11% pay offer. He

:57:57.:58:01.

said other than the few already working illegal hours, less than 1%

:58:02.:58:05.

would see come would lose some pain but that is because they would not

:58:06.:58:11.

be working as much. 75% would get a rise, is that not something worth

:58:12.:58:14.

talking about? A lot of this is spent, Andrew.

:58:15.:58:19.

How do you know? The 11% pay offer applies to a

:58:20.:58:24.

proportion of the junior doctors's contract, the other proportion of

:58:25.:58:29.

their wage will actually be going down. So, you cannot say that this

:58:30.:58:35.

is an 11% pay rise. Let me finish this point. How do you know if you

:58:36.:58:39.

don't sit around negotiations? Listen to Jeremy Hunt, he is saying

:58:40.:58:45.

the overall pay envelope for junior doctors will remain broadly the

:58:46.:58:50.

same. How can it possibly be an 11% pay rise?

:58:51.:58:53.

A rise in the basic and they will do less overtime, less hours would

:58:54.:58:57.

count as overtime. It is cogitated as it may be the

:58:58.:59:00.

junior doctors will think this does not take us forward.

:59:01.:59:05.

Don't they owe it to those of us who pay their salaries, the people who

:59:06.:59:10.

use the NHS, to sit down with Mr Hunt and go through it? I think they

:59:11.:59:14.

have tried but the way in which the Health Secretary has handled these

:59:15.:59:18.

negotiations has been absolutely appalling.

:59:19.:59:22.

Take the example of this. On Wednesday, again, 24 hours before

:59:23.:59:27.

the ballot opens, it is the first time that the Health Secretary says

:59:28.:59:31.

that the Care Quality Commission are going to be involved in monitoring

:59:32.:59:37.

the hours of junior doctors. Why didn't we hear that two months ago?

:59:38.:59:40.

Why did we hear that six months ago? This is the Care Quality

:59:41.:59:44.

Commission... If you were a junior doctor, would you vote for strike

:59:45.:59:47.

action? I am not a junior doctor, it is not

:59:48.:59:53.

for me as a politician to sit in a TV studio on a Sunday afternoon and

:59:54.:59:57.

tell junior doctors how they should vote in a ballot. I am not going

:59:58.:00:03.

If they do vote for strike action, will the Labour Party support them?

:00:04.:00:11.

I am not going to prejudge the outcome of the ballot. You have come

:00:12.:00:16.

on and argued the junior doctors' case, with knowledge and some

:00:17.:00:20.

eloquence, so if they vote for strike action, why, given everything

:00:21.:00:24.

you have said, would you not support them? Jeremy Hunt can avoid a strike

:00:25.:00:29.

tomorrow if he avoids the threat of contract imposition. I will ask

:00:30.:00:37.

Jeremy Hunt when I speak to him. Would you, if they vote for strike

:00:38.:00:41.

action, will the Labour Party support them? It is a simple

:00:42.:00:45.

question. I will be happy to come back and speak to you in a couple of

:00:46.:00:49.

weeks, but I am not going to prejudge the outcome of a democratic

:00:50.:00:53.

process that is currently under way. The Government in a mess or other

:00:54.:00:58.

junior doctors chancing their arm? It is interesting, it is where is

:00:59.:01:01.

where those two Conservative manifesto commitments made, the

:01:02.:01:05.

seven-day NHS and the other thing, the ?22 billion of efficiency

:01:06.:01:09.

savings in the NHS to meet the ?30 billion funding gap. What is

:01:10.:01:15.

interesting is if there is pain here, imagine what it will be like

:01:16.:01:18.

in other areas of the public services. The NHS is protected, it

:01:19.:01:22.

has a ring fenced budget that rises in line with inflation. Other areas

:01:23.:01:27.

that are not protected will face cuts of 25%, so this is just an

:01:28.:01:30.

early taste of how difficult things will get next year on the other side

:01:31.:01:35.

of the Spending Review. I want to put something to you that the

:01:36.:01:38.

cheaper the defence staff said to me, not about the NHS, he would be

:01:39.:01:45.

worried if Mr Trident Macca delete Corbin's views on Trident became

:01:46.:01:49.

Labour policy -- Jeremy Corbyn's views on Trident became Labour

:01:50.:01:52.

policy, that he would never press the button. Let's hear what Richard

:01:53.:01:57.

Houghton had to say. The whole thing about deterrence rest on the court

:01:58.:02:03.

Macca delete -- rest on the use. If you say you are never going to use

:02:04.:02:08.

it, I say you use it every minute of every day and the purpose of the

:02:09.:02:11.

deterrent is you don't have to use it because you successfully deter.

:02:12.:02:16.

So no point in spending billions and billions if our enemies think we

:02:17.:02:20.

will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then

:02:21.:02:20.

will never use it? Yes, because deterrence is then completely

:02:21.:02:23.

undermined. Isn't that the point, if you have

:02:24.:02:27.

the deterrent, you say you will use it, even if you might not. If you

:02:28.:02:30.

don't have it, you save the money. What is the logic of having it and

:02:31.:02:36.

saying you will not use it? I think Jeremy was probably answering a

:02:37.:02:40.

hypothetical question. He has been clear that the Labour Party is going

:02:41.:02:44.

to have a review of its policy. I am somebody who welcomes that review,

:02:45.:02:48.

to be honest. I understand that, but my point is you can have a review

:02:49.:02:52.

and say we won't have the deterrent or we will have the deterrent. What

:02:53.:02:55.

is the logic of saying we will have it but won't use it? As I say, I

:02:56.:03:01.

think Jeremy was answering a hypothetical question. I think it is

:03:02.:03:09.

a difficult question. His views on nuclear weapons are long held. The

:03:10.:03:14.

Labour Party needs to go through this review. We need to decide

:03:15.:03:18.

democratically as a party whether we want to commit to the renewal of

:03:19.:03:23.

Trident. At the point at which that decision is taken, Labour Party

:03:24.:03:27.

members will obviously be deciding... Thank you, you can come

:03:28.:03:28.

back and tell me that. There's no Sunday Politics next week

:03:29.:03:29.

because MPs are taking a break from Westminster - but we'll be back

:03:30.:03:34.

on the 22nd November. Remember, if it's Sunday,

:03:35.:03:36.

it's the Sunday Politics -

:03:37.:03:39.

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