22/11/2015 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland

Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria

Later this week, David Cameron set out his strategy

George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts

as he gears up for his Spending Review this week.

We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.

And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.

And coming up here: can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?

An emotional DUP conference bids farewell to its leader.

Plus the deal we waited so long for - is it a Fresh Start or

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting

Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has

embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in

Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.

The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem

Later this week, David Cameron will present

his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority

Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,

This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,

our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater

The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament

for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly

Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines

Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the

putting together, of majority for the Prime Minister's desire to bomb

in Syria? They are being reasonably cautious that they are pretty

confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have

happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he

was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy

Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said

he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they

would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there

was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by

Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he

possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs at

Westminster, he is indicating that if the Prime Minister set this

out... It looks like the numbers are if the Prime Minister set this

say was credible. We are told rebels thinking of voting with the

Government or abstaining could be as high as 50. What is your

intelligence? A huge number, from very senior people as well. Actually

the number of senior people leaving, exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think

a challenging week would be an understatement. It is at a whole new

level. There is only so much time you can buy with free votes. Jeremy

Corbyn opposes the party policy. This time he would set his own

policy but no 1 would come with him. How many times can you play that

trick before people say this is a loose conglomeration of individuals

and not a party? Do you think he would go for a free vote? Maria

Eagle has just published a paper which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn

has been making noises about this. Who is there to support, apart from

John McDonnell, in this position? He is very isolated on this. The

problem for the Prime Minister is, in a sense he gets what he wishes

for. We begin joining others in bombing and things do not really

changed in Syria. I do not think the House of Commons is the primary

obstacle facing David Cameron. I think he will get the votes could

not see much because of the case he will make later this week but

because what happened in the last week. They focused on all necessary

measures and use combat as a metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor,

I think. The biggest problem is not the Parliamentary vote for David

Cameron, it is the diplomatic struggle to agree with Russia

exactly how we go about this. Russia are happy to bomb in Syria against

Isil but they are not happy to do so in a way which, in their words,

destroys the statehood of Syria which alludes to their traditional

support for the existing Syrian state and basher al-Assad. The

politics is far more challenging than the technical act of getting

the votes together. That is the problem. What is the endgame?

Transition can sometimes take a long time. A very long transition.

On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne will announce the Government's

Over the next five years, they will total ?4 trillion.

But even to stay within that barely imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne

will have to continue to cut departmental and welfare spending.

Hence the mantra you will hear this week of "a country that lives within

its means" - in other words more of a squeeze on many public services.

The Chancellor wants government departments to find

a further ?20 billion worth of savings between now and 2020.

So, where could that money come from?

Welcome to our virtual Treasury courtyard.

Now, they don't have one of these in the real courtyard

but it represents everything the Government is due to spend this year

I'm going to start by highlighting a few of the most significant parts

You can see the ?217 billion which goes on Social Security.

That includes everything from jobseeker's allowance to

There is the ?35 billion the UK is due to spend this year

And George Osborne says that's a figure he is determined to bring

Now, the focus of his statement is the

money which goes on administering and delivering public services.

Here it is, and you can see it's just under half

We are going to delve into the budgets of a few of the most

It is the NHS which accounts for the biggest chunk

The Chancellor is not going to find any of his savings here

because he has promised to increase NHS funding in England by ?10

The Government's also promised a real terms increase

That is part of its commitment to meeting the Nato target of spending

The Government is also committed to spending 0.7% of GDP

on overseas aid - meaning that budget is also protected.

So, the Chancellor is not going to find any of his ?20 billion

of savings he says he needs to make from either health, defence or aid.

So, where could it come from instead?

What about from the education budget?

That is a big part of what the state spends on public services.

Here the Conservatives have promised a

That means savings from here will be limited.

Although the rest of the budget does not have any guaranteed protection.

Here is the money that goes to English local authorities.

This was one of the first departments to agree to big savings

Let's look at the Home Office whose budget this year is ?10.6 billion.

The single biggest thing Theresa May's department spends

money on is the grant it gives to police forces in England and Wales.

Although they also get some of their money from other sources including

And some of the other departments which are going to have to find big

savings over the next four years are the departments of business,

But let's go back to that big part of government spending I mentioned

Because of course that is where a lot

of the focus has been in the weeks and months before this statement.

Again here there is plenty the Chancellor will not touch.

The state pension is a massive part of the budget.

But the Government has a long-standing promise not to cut

it along with various pensioner benefits.

The other areas of big spending the Government has had to look to

are housing benefit, disability benefits and incapacity benefits.

And, you can see that big sum of money, ?30 billion,

which is due to be spent on personal tax credits this year.

An area where the Chancellor has found that making savings can

So, the Chancellor faces some tricky trade-offs on Wednesday

when he unveils his spending plans for the next five years.

Paul Johnson from the Institute of Fiscal Studies has some ideas.

Paul, welcome back to the programme. Let's start with this tricky

question of tax credits. What is the Chancellor, in your view, most

likely to do? He has two big choices. He can decide not to make

any cuts, or much in the wake of cuts, next April. That is what all

of the bus has been about, the cuts that will come in next April. -- the

fuss. Most of the savings will come in the long run full he has also

announced the new universal credit system will be much less generous

than he was originally intending. In five or ten years time, even if he

does not put the cut scene he was planning in April, he will still

make much the same level of saving for them if he does that, his

spending in 2016 on welfare for them if he does that, his

will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust

will be ?4 billion or so higher than own welfare cap, the cap he has

legislated, which assumes he own welfare cap, the cap he has

make those savings. That is one option. The other option is he will

try to find some savings in 2016, maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits

that have some savings and look elsewhere in the welfare budget to

make up the rest of the savings. Whatever he does on tax credits

make up the rest of the savings. cost money, certainly in the short

run. His deficit reduction plan for the ship is

run. His deficit reduction plan for trouble. He faces huge pressures to

run. His deficit reduction plan for spend more on everything from health

run. His deficit reduction plan for to Social Security. -- for this year

run. His deficit reduction plan for is already in some trouble. The

first thing to say about that surplus in

first thing to say about that amount of uncertainty about

first thing to say about that will be. Forecasting these things

first thing to say about that view ad is an extreme you tricky and

uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world

uncertain business. Ignoring that, expects over the next few

uncertain business. Ignoring that, will require cuts of about 25% in

those unprotected apartments we have will require cuts of about 25% in

just heard about the Home Office, local government, and so on,

just heard about the Home Office, last parliament will Boyd -- involve

really sharp last parliament will Boyd -- involve

2020. They are big changes to way which we will deliver local

Gottman way which we will deliver local

delivering police force, way which we will deliver local

will be delivering way which we will deliver local

decade. Let me get these right. When you add up all the cuts, those made

in those about to happen, between 20102020, major departments, the

unprotected ones, will face cuts of up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is

it doable? That is a good question. It may not turn up that badly if the

economy does better than expected all the Chancellor finds some

additional savings in Social Security, or he does not aim for the

10 million surplus and goes for a 1 billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If

he does go down that route, it will be more difficult than it was in the

last parliament. If there were easy cuts to have made, they will have

been made already. Do not forget one of the biggest bits of public

spending goes on the pay of people who work in the public sector, the

pay of nurses, teachers and civil servants and so on. That was quite

easy to hold down over the last parliament. Pay in the private

sector was doing so badly. We expect, almost economists now expect

that pay in the private sector will rise well to be strongly. In that

world it will be quite hard to hold down pay right across the public

sector, as he said he would do back in the July budget.

Joining me now Nigel Lawson, Margaret Thatcher's longest serving

Welcome back to the programme. Thank you, I enjoyed your rant the other

day. It was not a rant, it was a carefully scripted commentary but

thank you for your remarks. Let me take an overall review on the

Chancellor 's position. The borrowing figures for October were

pretty bad, looks like he will overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is

the austerity programme in trouble again? It is difficult, he has a

difficult time because of these ridiculous protected programmes

which should not exist. Aid is going up again and again, the Nobel Prize

for economics has been given to an English economist, he is Scottish in

fact, and one of his principal findings, he is a great expert on

global poverty and one of his major findings is that overseas aid

although well-intentioned does more harm than good. Yet that is going up

and up. He has got a tough time but it can be done. When I was

Chancellor I was able to balance the budget and get it into surplus and

he has to do it as well. He has huge pressure on security, the police,

the NHS, we were just talking about mitigating cuts on the tax credit

side, these are all hard to resist in the current atmosphere. It is

going to be very difficult and although I suspect it will mainly be

cuts in savings in public spending I think he will have to do more on the

tax side than he would have liked. There is some logic in that, for

example it looks as if, Paul Johnson was seeing, or maybe it was you, but

he is likely to some extent to defer the cutting of the tax credits. It's

quite right to take a knife to the tax credits, they have grown far too

much and are undesirable in their present size. But nonetheless what

he did propose originally was a bit too much for some and therefore he

has got to delay it a bit. But when he presented, he presented a package

including raising income tax threshold. He could, as part of the

package delay that a little bit and help on the tax side. The government

has always said it will do all the heavy lifting, the heavy lifting

will be done by cuts in spending rather than increasing taxes. Will

he now have to look at increasing some taxes are hats at a time of low

oil prices on fuel duty? I think that's a good suggestion and it is

sensible to do that. But defer a reduction which he might find

less... Yes but might he have to look at some tax rises? I think you

should look at the fuel duty, yes. President Hollande has said that

national security comes before deficit reduction, he has sidelined

the fiscal pact he has with the rest of Europe. He plans a huge increase

in security spending, 17,000 more police and border guards and other

security personnel. Will the British be looking at George Osborne to do

something similar next week? President Hollande has never been

keen on deficit-reduction in the first place. It's not unconnected

with the fact as well that the French economy, and I live in

France, the French economy is in a bad way. We are doing much better.

Security is important but the government has said very clearly

that it is going to be keeping to the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence

spending, something France is not doing even though it has

considerable defence expenditure. The leaked letter from one of the

most senior police officers to the Home Secretary says cuts to police

budgets could reduce very significantly the ability to respond

to a Paris style attack. The Chancellor is going to be under

pressure to make security more important than deficit-reduction.

Certainly for the foreseeable future. Security is essential. It is

vital. But I think the police are complaining a little bit too much.

Look how much the police are spending now on chasing up often

unsubstantiated accusations of historic sex abuse. That has got

nothing to do with security. Those resources should be put where they

need is. I think also what the police need is not just money, and

the security services to, they need intelligence. I think it would make

a lot of sense and what I would like to see the government doing is to

expedite the passage of the investigatory Powers Bill which is

long overdue and badly needed. In this climate you accept that cutting

the top rate of income tax back to the 40% that you originally

introduced, that that is politically impossible for the foreseeable

future? It depends how far you can proceed. I would hope that during

this parliament it can be done. It is politically difficult but there

is no budgetary reason against it. When I cut it it increased revenue

and it would do so again. The cap which George Osborne has already

done in the last parliament from 50, 245 even though the Liberal

Democrats he did it and it raised money and didn't cost anything. To

be cutting police numbers, to be struggling to find money for the

NHS, to be doing something for the working poor on tax credits, making

life a bit more difficult for them but then to be cutting the top rate

of the highest earners? That is why I don't think you can be doing it

now that you were asking about the foreseeable future. You still think

he can do it before the end of this Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how

confident are you feeling about winning the referendum to withdraw?

Nobody can call a referendum. It is difficult enough sometimes to call a

general election and referendums are even harder to call. Logically I

don't think he will do it. Logically David Cameron ought to be

campaigning to leave because what he said at the beginning was he was

dissatisfied with the European Union as it is. He wanted a fundamental

reform to be enshrined in treaty change. Then stay in a reformed

European Union. There is not going to be a reformed European Union.

There will not be a treaty change. What the referendum is going to be

about is if you want to stay in or leave and an reform European Union.

So logically he ought to say leave and that is where I am because if it

is an reform we don't want to stay in it. So even if the primer Mr was

to get all his renegotiation demands such as we know them it would not

change your mind on coming out? No, if he demanded a lot more and got

it, major reforms which I have written about but I don't have time

to go into no, I think it would be welcomed right across the European

Union. This is not the view of the majority of the people, but we

cannot tell the rest of the countries what to do, all we can say

is what we are going to do. As we get closer to the referendum date,

we don't know when it will be but when we get closer to it being

announced, in terms of who seem to be the major figure who leads your

side of the referendum campaign, if not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not

Nigel Farage. I think the people who want to stay in have put up a

businessman. Stewart draws. Not a particularly captivating

businessman. Who will be the equivalent? I have no idea, but we

will wait and see but it certainly won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an

important player. Why not? Because Ukip has just one member of

Parliament. We are a parliamentary democracy and the majority party is

the Conservative Party. Nigel Lawson, thank you for being with us.

Thank you. It's been a pretty torrid week

for the Labour Party. Splits on everything

from how to deal with terrorists to Trident, to Ken Livingstone,

culminating in a bizarre row about whether or not the Shadow

Chancellor wants to scrap MI5. John McDonnell insists Britain's

spies are safe in his hands, though he did admit that

his party has had a "rough week". It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn

and his party grappled with issues In the wake of the Paris attacks,

the Labour leader said he was not happy with the idea

of police officers shooting to kill on British streets, which led to

a very stormy party meeting, So, you tweeted, "please tell me it

is not true that Jeremy just said, faced with Kalashnikov-wielding

genocidal fascists, our security I,

along with millions of Labour voters in this country, were very concerned

by the interview that Jeremy gave. Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow

Foreign Secretary, clarified matters very quickly and restated support

for the use of lethal force and, support of the use of drone strikes,

which Jeremy had also questioned. Jeremy himself, thankfully,

a few hours later, also issued a clarification,

and I'm very pleased he did. A lot of Labour voters will

have been very relieved. Then came a row about the former

Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, being appointed to co-chair

the party's review of Trident, and the emergence of a letter from a

campaign group calling for MI5 to be disbanded that the Shadow

Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems And we found something else

interesting that John This Parliamentary motion he

proposed last October saying taxpayers who do not

like war should be able to opt out The military is where

the next battle may lie. If and

when the Government brings forward plans to extend British air strikes

from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs want to vote in favour, while

their leader is a committed One Labour figure is speaking out

for the first time. I think it would be wrong to suggest

there is a settled view on the People will bring

their own prejudices, which are from being instinctively

for intervention, to having long The only thing I would ask of all

of my colleagues is we look at this with an open mind,

examining the facts rather than seeing how it matches our

prejudices, and then reach a decision which is in the national

interest. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn

is able to do that? He has some very strongly held views

that we should not get involved He may have to come to

a point where he says, now that I'm not just a backbencher,

I am actually the Leader of There is an element

of national interest and that is For the young Corbynites at this

event about Labour's economic policy The only reason we look bad to

the general public, the only reason we do not look very strong at the

moment, is that we are not united. If you have criticisms with

the Leader, you should take it up It is not fitting to do these things

in the press, criticising people. Do you think there is a plot

against Jeremy Corbyn? If they are planning

a plot they should probably think about the fact Jeremy was elected

with 59.5% of the vote, I think. And we saw, from the beginning,

he went from the least likely person to get

in to the front runner, to the If people are plotting to get rid

of him, they really should listen The party should be based

around what the party members want. Unfortunately for them there will be

another flash point On Tuesday there will be a vote

in the House of Commons on Trident, Labour MPs have been

instructed not to turn up. We understand a bunch of them,

including some big names, are thinking about defying

their Leader and voting It would be a largely symbolic vote

but another visible symbol of I'm joined now from Doncaster

by the Labour MP Caroline Flint - she was a minister under Tony Blair

and Gordon Brown. Good morning, thank you for coming

back on the programme. Let me begin with a general question, it's been a

pretty terrible week for Labour, what is the mood now on the Labour

backbenches among your colleagues? It's not been a great week for

Labour, that is correct. I think part of the reason for that is we

haven't looked certain and confident on some of the big issues the nation

are worried about. What we have to have from the leadership, not just

Jeremy but those around him, is certainty about what we think about

what is happening in terms of the terrorist acts in Paris. But more

widely about what the certainty we can offer as Labour Party about how

we will support our national security. I think understandably

there have been concerns, I don't think just on the backbenches of the

Labour Party, but also amongst the Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but

also more widely amongst the party membership as well. The news has

been dominated for a week now by these terrible events in Paris. Has

Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour response to these events? I think

what is really important is that with leadership does come a massive

responsibility to speak clearly and with certainty about a whole number

of issues. But probably more than any other subject area if you like

national security demands that. Because at a time where we are all

reeling from what has happened in Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy

Corbyn takes very, very seriously what has happened there and its

implication for the security of British people as well and others

around the world. The question of allowing our pleas through the legal

framework which already exists to take action when they are presented

with a terrorist in front of them but also on some of the other

matters about how we should move forward in a united way with other

countries to tackle Isil, I think that certainty has been wanting and

not helped, I have to say, when other members of the Shadow Cabinet

cannot speak with one voice about what the leader wants to do. I hope

out of this week we will see some clarity and certainty coming forward

and I think we already know, and I have heard more this morning, that

David Cameron will come back to the House of Commons this week. We do

need a plan, it can't just be about military action, it has to be more

than that and I hope we can be in a position to opportunity going

forward to tackle the threat of Isil which is the most major threat to

security around the world that we have at the moment.

If Mr Cameron comes form with that dashes forward with that kind of

plan, would you back military action in Syria? I believe there can be a

case former literary action in Syria. We are facing the most

profoundly barbaric group of terrorists I think I have ever

realised in my lifetime or thought about. -- military action. Also the

most resourced group of terrorists in the world. It is a different

situation to what we faced a few years ago where I voted against

military action when Cameron came back to Parliament to deal with

Assad. We have in this country and this region, a number of dangerous

groups. There are a number of -- there is a hierarchy of dangerous

groups and Isil is the top of that list. If it can be about, yes, what

sort of military action should take place, maybe the air strikes... Like

we are doing in Iraq, within that a wider plan as to how we will deal

with civil war in Syria and what else we need to do going forward.

That is something I feel I could support. You say there is no doubt

that the Labour leadership takes these matters seriously. Can I point

out, just before the election this year, the Shadow Chancellor penned

his name to a document supporting the abolition of MI5 and disarming

the police? Last year he supported people opting out of having their

taxes fund any kind of military activity. I do not think... I

suspect a lot of people will not think that is taking these issues

very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit to hold the second most important

position within the Shadow Cabinet? One of the aspects of the leadership

campaign over the summer was a sense that Jeremy was authentic and very

clear about his views. And, you know, they may not be shared with

everybody, I may have some different views to Jeremy on that. Part of his

appeal was the authenticity, that it did not have any spin. He said he

did not realise what he do when he held that the letter and seemed to

support it. We had a leadership election. There was a massive surge

in our membership and Jeremy had an overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you

know, Jeremy and John McDonnell, have earned the right within that to

put forward their views. What is clear to me, I am a moderate

politician, but I am also a conviction politician. I do not say

one thing to one group of people and another to another group of people.

If the leadership believes in these things, they should say that and the

biggest test is then to let the British people determine whether

they agree with them or not. I think clarity, authenticity and honesty,

they are all very important and that is how you create trust. The last

election, at the end, it was clear your party had a problem over the

issue of economic security. When Mr Corbyn has said about not shooting

terrorists and his reservations about killing jihadi John, is not a

danger, as some polls suggest this morning, though it is not a danger,

as some polls suggest this morning, voters are national security and not

just economic security? When it comes to leadership, as you know,

you may have your own view is that you had before but you have to be

open to actually other views as well. That is why we're having this

debate within the Parliamentary Labour Party as to how we get a

position regarding what we do next in Syria. Jeremy has an overwhelming

mandate. With that comes a responsibility leadership which

shows the ideas he puts forward and answers to these really difficult

questions, whether on the economy national security, can also reach

out beyond the Parliamentary Labour Party and to that matter the Labour

Party. Part of that is winning People's trust to back you. That is

the task, not just the Jeremy but any leader of the leather party. He

needs to show he can do that. I think he wants to do that. -- the

Labour Party. They have said this morning they will have a full

discussion in the Shadow Cabinet and there will be discussions within the

Parliamentary Labour Party as well. Leadership does require a wider

reach and responsibility beyond boundaries. Are you surprised that

in so many personal appointments, John McDonnell, Ken Livingstone now

on defence, Mr Corbyn seems to have made no effort to reach out to the

centre of your party, much less the right of it? Well, all party

leaders, I have to say, and I have seen a few, do tend to sometimes

surround themselves not only with elected politicians but the paid

staff who are part of their group. For any party leader, whoever they

point, they have to show they will work in a way that is not just

fashioned by their own particular background and experience and maybe

their own point of view. There is a wider responsibility here. The

Labour Party is not a pressure group. We exist to win elections in

order to put our platform into practice in government. Therefore,

the people around Jeremy, who have been appointed, they have to

demonstrate they understand the responsibilities of that,

responsibilities to the wider Labour Party. Some people within it he may

not agree with him on everything but at heart we all want to win the next

election. Importantly, 400,000 people took part in the leadership

election. That is amazing. We have had a ground swell of people join

the party and many of them want to be active in a very positive way. I

welcome mat. We have to convince millions of people to support us in

the next election and in all the elections up to 2020. Final question

to you, if Mr Corbyn continues the way he has begun, will he be leading

your party into the 2020 election? Does he have any chance of winning?

Look, we have had, seven, eight, nine weeks since the leadership

election. It has been rocky along the way. We have made significant

impact when it came to the debate around tax credits for working

people. Will he lead your party into the next election? What Jeremy has

to do now is focused on how he leads our party right now. That will

determine our fortunes in the weeks, months and also in 2020. Thank you

for joining us. We say goodbye to viewers

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

in Northern Ireland. A final speech to

the party faithful - Peter Robinson I think the outpouring of emotion

shows how much he is loved within this party and how much people

rightly regard him as not just a politician but a statesman.

And it was titled A Fresh Start - but with victims' groups up in arms

about being excluded, some have branded it more of a false start.

We'll hear the thoughts of my guests - the News Letter's Political

Correspondent, Sam McBride, and Allison Morris from The Irish News.

Peter Robinson has given his final conference leader's speech to

the party which he said he has lived in since the day of its birth.

The outgoing First Minister said his work is almost done,

and it's time for a new generation to step forward.

I've been speaking to Mr Robinson - and we'll hear his thoughts on this

latest deal, the shortcomings of the Ulster Unionists and why compromise

But first, our Political Correspondent,

Chris Page, was at the conference at the La Mon Hotel in County Down.

It's the last time he'll do this. Peter Robinson helped to found the

DUP and says he remembers hoovering down party lanes to get to meetings.

Now he is moving his way through a crowd of his admirers. If First

Minister is preparing for a new stage in life. In a few weeks' time

I will step out of the limelight. The pattern of leadership will pass

to others. This transition doesn't need to mark an end, only a new

beginning. You may see it that way need to mark an end, only a new

their emotions about their departure. I did it give you a

bless you all. This is a formidable farewell for Peter Robinson. The DUP

is paying a tremendous tribute to the man who masterminded its move

from being a party of protest for a party of power. I will never be able

to properly thank Peter after all he has done for the country but we

tried today and I think the outpouring of emotion shows how much

he is loved within the party. I know more than most over the last 12

months what it is to have a leader like Peter Robinson. He has

supported me. He was there. He was incisive in his decision. So the

party focus now is on who will take over. The next head of the Stormont

executive will have lots of chances. This model is designed to

highlight one, waiting times for hospital I appointments but the DUP

say they are on the right road. We are on the motorway. He has set us

on a course which we collectively have embraced. People want to see us

progressing and moving along that motorway at a greater speed. I would

happily said any of our people, man for man, woman for women against

other leadership challenges. I am very confident that the party is

left to make the best decision. At a time of change, what

left to make the best decision. At a politicians think of where it is

going? It is attracting new and politicians think of where it is

energetic young people into it but politicians think of where it is

in terms of Northern Ireland moving forward, there is so much more to be

achieved in investment, trying to attract jobs. I think in terms of

the package that the DUP attract jobs. I think in terms of

other party offers it. I don't think the party needs to

other party offers it. I don't think sense. I think they are

other party offers it. I don't think sound policies. I actually think

they are party that everybody in Northern Ireland should get behind.

How many will do that will become clear in the Stormont elections next

year. The party has used this conference to prepare for that. It

has merely been about giving Peter Robinson eight Sterling sendoff.

Chris Page among the party faithful in County Down.

Well I spoke to Mr Robinson just moments after he'd made that

farewell speech, and I began by asking him about his verbal

I think our position -- their position has been disgraceful, to

come out of the executive simply because of electoral convenience. I

think it says little for the party and then to try and scheme away so

they can get back in, I think it was reprehensible. They weren't prepared

to roll up their sleeves and get an agreement, prepared to allow us to

take all the hard decisions so they could jump up on them afterwards. I

think they deserved a site were too and I think the people of Northern

Ireland will not think kindly on those who were preparing to move

Northern Ireland forward... It is bizarre. We can all stand on our own

party platforms and all give the rhetoric which suits our own party

supporters but the true test of leadership is whether we are

prepared to sit down and reach accommodation with others. The UUP

were not prepared to do that. I wondered if you would be able to

reach any future accommodation with the Ulster Unionist Party. It was

bizarre to hear a DUP leader in a conference speech talking about

electoral convenience, short termism and short-sightedness. Nothing like

that on the other side against republicans. I think everybody knows

the position I adopt in relation to republicans but at least republicans

were prepared to sit down and negotiate and prepared to reach

agreement and to copyrights. I think that shows a greater level of

political maturity and I hope that the Ulster Unionist Party won't

allow themselves to be led along a path that takes them into oblivion

and put them to the sidelines of Ulster politics. They should be in

the centre of politics, not the sidelines. Let's talk about the end

of your political leadership. Your predecessor Ian Piercy felt he was

pushed out at the of his career -- Paisley. He was very public about

that. You're saying your decision to go was your choice but you must have

known that if he didn't go, you would be pushed? Well, that isn't

the case. Indeed, all of the urging was for me to stay. Indeed, part of

the reason for my public announcement was to put it beyond

the stage where it could be returned. I have had massive support

within the party and I am very grateful to all of my colleagues.

There is no sense of being pushed whatsoever. Of course, every

political party has a range of political views within it. There are

people, but her personality and other reasons, will have a different

view than I have. However, I am happy to say, they are in very small

numbers and are not exactly in the most influential end of the party.

Would it surprise you to hear that I have spoken to several senior

members of the party on this very subject in recent weeks and one of

them would talk to me about the need for you to go, was standing on the

platform and having you at the end of that speech? It doesn't surprise

me. You and I both know who it is. That is why I say that it is a

small, very small group within the party and happily one that didn't

have a lot of influence. You have been seen by many throughout your

career been seen by many throughout your

strategist. And he filled recently though that may be your becoming a

bit of a potential electoral liability, as your golden touch

seemed to desert you? I am thinking here about having to answer

questions about the Nama sale of the Northern Ireland known bug. You have

very publicly denied this. Also the end held ministerial strategy which

was very popular with the party and the sudden elevation of Emma

Pengelly didn't play well in certain quarters. First of all, as far as

Nama is concerned, you can hardly suggest that that is some loss of

touch. Because somebody decides to smear doesn't mean that I have lost

any touch. The time I think all deal fully and effectively with this

issue. As far as the in alp policy, as these were decisions of the party

officers. It was the tactical and right thing to do in these

circumstances to avoid the collapse of the Assembly, and as far as Emma

is concerned, as I look across the Assembly group, and I have to take

my decisions in choosing a minister, on the basis of what is the merit of

that individual, there is nobody in the Assembly in any political party

who knows the functions of OFM DFM better than Emma does and no wonder

would be more capable of doing the job. As you will be a first class

representative for South Belfast. Are you going to adopt the same

strategy in finding your replacement as an MLA for East Belfast, somebody

from your inner circle, bright young thing? I do believe in the general

principle of bringing talented young thing? I do believe in the general

thing to do. It's just a didn't play particularly well in South Belfast.

Other members of your party thought they had first dibs and were very

disappointed and answer the question if I had asked you but if he had

been in the position of the party officers and it was a party of the

decision, not my decision, if he had been in that disposition to have

traduced to get the most talented individual for South Belfast, who

would you have chosen? Well, that wasn't my choice, you made your

choice and you received some criticism for it and you may have

lost a number of the party over it, it is your choice. I think if you

are more up-to-date, you would know we have expelled that member. She

has been given that information. As far as you're concerned, Ruth

Patterson is no longer a member of the DUP? Party officers unanimously

decided to expel her earlier this week. What I want to ask you is, who

is the real Peter Robinson? You have been described as something of a

chameleon. Is the real Peter Robinson the hard-line

uncompromising unionist or is it the Progressive unionist Party who wants

to do think differently, who we occasionally cod quotas of in the

past two years? I am a determined unionist who wants to take Northern

Ireland forward because that is the best way to safeguard the union.

Everybody reacts in different circumstances depending on what they

are having to be faced with. When there was a threat against Northern

Ireland's position within the United Kingdom, when we were being bombed

and shot in our homes, of course you saw a hard side of Peter Robinson,

now we have the opportunity to really make progress in Northern

Ireland and to take it forward so now you are seeing what you describe

as the progressive Peter Robinson. Let's see what my guests make

of that. Joining me are Allison Morris

and Sam McBride. As he leads the stage, it is Peter

Robinson working to be remembered as the one who moved from a party of

protest to the party of Progressive unionist Party macro I think it is

difficult to sum up Peter Robinson's time in terms of his time

as First Minister. There is it watershed with the

as First Minister. There is it After that point he was using set

piece speeches such as yesterday to appeal to Catholic voters

piece speeches such as yesterday to there was a benign apartheid

segregated education, the language of moderate unionism, even alliance.

Very quickly, after the fight of moderate unionism, even alliance.

put on the back of moderate unionism, even alliance.

then he has been very pragmatic. He has moved one direction, then the

other. Very difficult to say what he stood for when he was leader. It is

fascinating, Allison, isn't it? stood for when he was leader. It is

lot of criticism of the Ulster Unionist Party but hardly a mention

of Sinn Fein and compromised apparently the scene, it is no

longer a dirty word. I think it was a fascinating interview. We know he

announces departure this week but it was done in a very choreographed

way. An was done in a very choreographed

for the lamest -- Ulster Unionist was done in a very choreographed

the crisis in the Assembly was supposed to be in relation to

republican violence and the murder of Kevin McGuigan, that all seems to

have been forgotten about and as he was leaving his speech, it was saved

for fellow unionists. It is fascinating. I'm not surprised he

has changed tack and tried to become the progressive Peter Robinson

because he would want the legacy to be anything but that. -- wouldn't

want. The events of the last year have been complete contradictions,

he has tried to ride two horses. Some nationalists will not be

persuaded? Not at all. Before 2012, there was a lot of talk about

attracting Catholic voters. Once we saw the flight protest, we saw his

lack of leadership and inability to push things forward to meet the

difficult decisions. He buckled down to the lowest common to nominate and

that would put any nationalist of. Sam, a final thought from you. They

were very clear in that interview that his decision was his, but he

had been writing about this for quite some time. That interpretation

of the sequence of events is not what a lot of observers believe. It

say understandably that he is very clear that interview. In some senses

he is contradicting because on the one hand he says it was not back it

was his decision to go. On the other hand, there was a senior DUP who

wanted him to go, he openly admits that was the case. He seems to be

trying to have it both ways. I spoke to six DUP members at very various

members of the party, rank and file and senior figures. Three weeks ago

they were saying either he goes by the end of the year or we have to

move against him. That is unchallengeable because that is what

those people were saying at that point. We will hear more from you at

the moment. For now, thank you. Ukip also held

its conference this weekend. At the gathering in Carrickfergus,

members heard attacks on the European Union, immigration

policy and the Stormont Executive. There was also confirmation

of most of the candidates the party intends to run

in next year's Assembly election. But so far, its leader here,

David McNarry, isn't among them. Our Political Correspondent,

Gareth Gordon, reports. Carrickfergus's Norman built castle

is a reminder that invaders from Europe are nothing new. Perhaps

fitting then that the town was chosen by Ukip for its conference in

Northern Ireland. So far the party's mix of anti-EU sentiment and

heavy scepticism about the Stormont performance has had mixed results.

Pour in the last General Election but decent in the preceding European

poll. 24,000 people voted for the party's then chair Henry Reilly

except he has now gone to the TUV after being expelled. Still, that

didn't seem to dampen the spirits of members who heard a familiar message

from some of its three remaining councillors. We are a national

unionist party. Not just with a future on the British mainland but

also here in our six counties, we country. In the Assembly elections,

Ukip will upset many unionist parties and will take many of

voters. Let's continue to have a publicly funded NHS but the United

Kingdom citizens. The party leader was critical of this week's deal to

save the Stormont institutions and in particular, the DUP. We have

returned to the days of no guns, no government, and Kenya who coined

phrase? It was that pathetic party behind the no guns, no government,

that has turned itself upside down. Mr McNarry says he is targeting six

seats in next year 's's Assembly election but after naming a

different candidate to himself in the Strangford constituency. Stephen

Crosby, you better hold it. He is standing down. -- is he standing

down? It's not entirely clear. There are four or five vacancies and they

will be filled within the next few weeks and my name, like other names,

it is in for those vacancies. So you will be standing? My name is in for

those seats with those vacancies, of course. I am not quite sure, you

could have announced your name today. I haven't been selected.

Someone else has been selected. Somebody else has been selected.

What is the first? Ukip is certainly not shy about topping up its

electoral prospects in Northern Ireland but with uncertainty even

over the future of its single MLA, it has got a lot of work to do if it

is going to achieve them. Gareth Gordon reporting

from Carrickfergus. Now, after ten weeks of negotiation,

the Fresh Start agreement has been In it is a roadmap for dealing with

paramilitarism and welfare changes, but there's continuing deadlock

over legacy issues. The Victims Forum is demanding

an apology and an urgent meeting with the

Prime Minister and the Taoiseach. Allison, how big an issue do you

think it is that victims are now being so vocal about their dissident

satisfaction? I think it is huge. Five rounds of talks, unable to come

up with a solution for the victims. They were given false hope from the

Stormont House Agreement that there were a series of the mechanisms that

would have dealt with it. That's why it fell apart and were unable to or

the British government, they inserted a clause saying that some

information would have to be redacted for security issues. It is

now at a point that the victims issue has to be taken out of local

hands. They'll have to bring some international who has experience of

dealing with these things to bring a solution. It has been handed to the

the Chief Constable and he should not be policing the past because it

politicises his role. We will never have progress of policing if he is

obviously still having to go back and have this piecemeal look at the

past. Sam, do you feel that legacy could unravel beef Fresh Start deal,

-- just as it brought down the Stormont House Agreement. I am not

sure that... There are several issues, partly the issue of IRA

decommissioning which was extraordinary by complete absence

from the speech when you think about what David Trimble -- what they said

about David Trimble. In terms of the legacy stuff, Peter Robinson

proposed this week that the stuff that they could agree it should be

published. I think that is probably quite sensible. At this point we are

discussing at without knowing what was in there. The victims themselves

would probably want to see that more than anyone. Allison, Thursday

night, John O'Dowd admitted that mitigations for welfare benefit

recipients are not as good in this deal as they were in the previous

deal. There is a separate issue about tax credits but sticking with

welfare, how does that square with Sinn Fein's commitment. Why did Sinn

Fein is signed off this deal? It was obviously a 2-party deal to get us

through the next election but you can see the finer detail, the

Stormont has agreement was a better deal for current recipients. I think

Sinn Fein activists have been noticeably quiet with this issue.

Whether they were outflanked or outmanoeuvred, I don't know but when

you break it down they have said there is extra money but it is

actually tax credit money it is a worse deal by it if you something

million for actual benefit claimants. The logic of this is that

Sinn Fein is moving significantly away from it stands as an

anti-austerity party. As the economy picks up in the south, they are

trying to adopt a new tack here. Thank you.

Let's just pause for a moment to take a look back

at a very busy week in politics in Sixty Seconds - with Gareth Gordon.

Christmas came early. A deal to save Stormont. I believe this is a good

day for Northern Ireland and it marks a Fresh Start for Northern

Ireland's institutions. To ensure that this new opportunity, this

Fresh Start, is fully embraced. But what wasn't fully embraced was

allowing Westminster to deal with welfare. How dare anybody reduce

this chamber to a post box? One job done, it was time to shed another.

Peter Robinson announced he was quitting. The further you get up

that greasy pole, the more people are looking to you down. And in the

midst of all this, MLAs remembered the dead of Paris. My daughter was

down the street from the first restaurant attack and I want to

thank those who give her and her group shelter.

Hard to believe you could squeeze so much into just one week.

Let's take a brief look ahead with Allison and Sam.

Sam, the Prime Minister will set out a copper is of strategy on air

against IS. -- comprehensive. The DUP is looking at that and

indicating that it will vote with the Government. Gavin Robinson, and

Nigel Dodds this morning, both indicated that the DUP has

effectively dropped its past opposition to air strikes. It is not

entirely convinced but sought to meet leaning towards supporting the

Government if they have a credible plan. Allison. They are not entirely

convinced but I'm pretty sure they will vote in favour of it. The

landscape has changed after the Paris attacks but also we know the

DUP did very well in the Fresh Start deal so it is payback time for the

British government. Sam, a brief look ahead to Wednesday and they

come preventing spending review and the Autumn Statement. On past form,

George Osborne has talked of the four events and has delivered so

perhaps it won't be as bad as people thinking. It is Stormont's major

source of funding. I think it is not going to be as bad as previously

thought. It is under pressure from his

need to come up bicycles and onto -- people need to get on to bikes and

of polluting cars. Can Jeremy Corbyn rein

in his discontented MPs? Helen, let's start with the spending

his spending cuts? Helen, let's start with the spending

review. It is quite clear that deficit reduction is not getting any

easier, even though the economy has been growing for some time. I

thought it was interesting that even Nigel Lawson said the Chancellor may

have to look if he wants to continue reducing the deficit, not just at

spending cuts but tax rises. That is about having a surplus by 2020. It

gives them very little room for manoeuvre. The big problem for the

Tories in this Parliament, last parliament you had heavy cuts for

councils which fell a lot on adult social care. A small number of

people which hugely affected by that. The next round of cuts will

mean a much larger group of people are affected. That is much harder to

get past the public. It gets in a lot of money and a big revenue from

the Government. Is that possible? There is logic to it, given to what

has happened with oil prices. The logic is, low oil prices and the

political logic will be, the gunmen will say, they have done enough on

making fuel cheaper tax wise in recent years. They now have

political room for manoeuvre on that issue. George Osborne is now boxed

in, not just by the decision to aim for a surplus and the decision to

aim for troubling pounds in welfare cuts, but also by the decision

alluded to by Nigel Lawson to protect entire departments of

spending, health service and foreign aid. Anything to do with people over

65. That leaves you with one option, to go to departments which have

already made absolutely swingeing cuts over the last two years and ask

for more. There is a perverse incentive that when the Treasury

knows that for example local government or business is able to

make very deep cuts, as they have done, those departments are awarded

by being asked more cuts. There is a perverse incentive almost to hold

out. George Osborne has a thoroughly consistent record. He will duff up

the Labour Party and then implement the fiscal deficit reduction plan.

In the last parliament he halved the overall fiscal deficit. In this

Parliament he went into the election saying, I will run a 10 million

surplus two years before the general election. He has all it is a laid

back by one year. He has announced today the 10 billion has pretty much

gone. He may run a surplus but it may be ?10 rather than 10 billion!

That will be much closer to the Ed Balls plan. As Helen was saying, he

has got himself into this mess because he set a trap for Ed Balls.

There is a danger of just public weariness. I think the Treasury is

worried about this. The mood of the public. We are into our sixth year

and there is still 80 million to go. The public in Greece just got fed

up. In Portugal a few weeks ago, the Portuguese economy was recovering

well but the public got fed up. In the election campaign we heard about

the long-term economic plan. If you asked people what that was, there

are a few new. Most people assume that things were on the upside. They

did not realise the cuts in the second term would be deeper. The

comprehensive spending review will be live on BBC Two. It will be a

political event. Let's move on to the Labour Party. We have the vote

on Trident. SNP are putting it down and it is meant to be a trap for

Labour. The leader it is against it but the party is in favour of it

credible to say, just abstain? I think they will get away with it. It

was set at conference but it cannot come onto the conference floor for

three years. The Labour leader is completely opposed to it. He has

said there is no compromise on it. He has had to make a series of

compromises. No matter what Mr Corbyn and John McDonnell wants,

they cannot change it for another three years? What happened at the

Labour conference is they attempted to have it debated but they failed.

It is up to the National policy Forum. This review is being chaired

by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone for that they are looking at it and

it will go to the National policy Forum to decide. That is a way of

overruling what the existing rules are full you have a strange

situation where Jeremy Corbyn wants to promote grassroots

decision-making on things he agrees with. Not so much in this case. The

point Caroline Flint was making, you cannot keep having free vote on such

massive issues as to whether this country should have nuclear

deterrent and whether we should extend the battle against Islamic

State to Syria. You cannot have a huge disparity between leader and

Parliamentary party on existential issues. What it leads to is the

leader having to use flirted, surreptitiously methods to get his

own way and negotiate around party policy. The ultimate example this

week with getting Ken Livingstone, the famous defence expert, to have

the defence review. Briefly, because I want to move on. If you get 60% of

the vote in the leadership election, it is that at the fair to put your

views forward. They need to make a decision by the time there is a big

vote on Trident next year. The difficulties they hear and now. And

that is Syria. The here and now is having an effect. We had a policy

morning. One of the questions was about national-security. -- a poll

this morning. Who do you think would keep you and your family safe? 39%

trusted David Cameron and only 17% voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The point I

put to Caroline Flint, this is dangerous for Labour. They already

have a problem with economic security. That is one reason they

did not win. To not be trusted national-security as well, it means

it is well nigh impossible to win an election. There was a seductive

narrative about patria to them with Jeremy Corbyn not singing with Queen

-- not seeing the Queen 's speech. I think particularly in the aftermath

of Paris, what people were looking to see from leaders were looking to

see from leaders in summary. That is a huge problem. The problem also

comes with the fact these polls are very bad. At this stage, Ed Miliband

was doing better and that was, even then, people were talking about

whether it would bring him down. Debts have a look at the state of

the parties with the poll. I'm told this is the biggest Tory lead over

Labour since John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher, 15 points.

There we have the Tories on 42 and Labour down to 27. The Labour vote

came down a couple of points. Ukip are still doing pretty well, at

15%. The Lib Dems are still flat-lining at 7%. The Scottish

National 's get five. It means a lot more in Scotland. The Green party is

down at 3% and going nowhere. At this stage of the process is it is

not -- the process, it is not that important. Given all the problems we

have had about tax credits and Tory difficulties, it is pretty

disheartening. The last time the Labour Party scored 27% in a general

election was under Baikal foot as leader. It has been a defining

moment for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. -- under Michael Foot.

You need to ensure the nation's finances are safe and

national-security is safe. On the second one, is a nation secure in

your hands? He appeared to be found wanting. You have a at a clown

situation, what would you do? He equivocated and said, I would be an

easy. -- a equivocated and said, I would be an

finally set out the circumstances in which he would approve that type of

response by which he would approve that type of

The problem was his initial responses showed his instincts.

Putting that in front of the British people, you will have a challenging

time winning an election like that. The Parliamentary Labour Party has

to be careful. They may not be in tune with the people in the country

in the Labour Party who elected Mr Corbyn as leader. Although they are

getting impatient, I would suggest they have to wait at least until May

until the Scottish elections, the local government elections. They

really cannot move before then, can they? They acknowledge he has a

thumping great mandate from the election. A lot of those people have

actually converted to being full party members. He still has a huge

backing at grassroots level. The Mint is thriving and drawing in huge

crowds of people. -- momentum is thriving. Even a later post was then

they could come third in Scotland. They were saying Jeremy Corbyn is

the 1 guy who could bring back the votes that were lost to SNP in

recent years. By one warning to the Labour Party is, if you think 27% is

low, wait until the public starts to focus on the next election? 27% is

not the floor for Labour. We shall see. That is all for today.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC2 at noon tomorrow.

And we'll be back again next weekend at the same time.

We will be back to disentangle the spending review next Sunday at the

same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics.