22/11/2015 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


22/11/2015

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by Lord Nigel Lawson and Caroline Flint MP.


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Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria

:00:36.:00:42.

Later this week, David Cameron set out his strategy

:00:43.:00:46.

George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts

:00:47.:00:55.

as he gears up for his Spending Review this week.

:00:56.:00:59.

We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.

:01:00.:01:03.

And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.

:01:04.:01:06.

And coming up here: can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?

:01:07.:01:12.

An emotional DUP conference bids farewell to its leader.

:01:13.:01:15.

Plus the deal we waited so long for - is it a Fresh Start or

:01:16.:01:21.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:01:22.:01:32.

They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.

:01:33.:01:43.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting

:01:44.:01:45.

Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has

:01:46.:01:48.

embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in

:01:49.:01:51.

Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.

:01:52.:01:53.

The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem

:01:54.:01:56.

Later this week, David Cameron will present

:01:57.:01:59.

his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority

:02:00.:02:03.

Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,

:02:04.:02:10.

This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,

:02:11.:02:13.

our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater

:02:14.:02:16.

The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament

:02:17.:02:22.

for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly

:02:23.:02:27.

Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines

:02:28.:02:30.

Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the

:02:31.:02:45.

putting together, of majority for the Prime Minister's desire to bomb

:02:46.:02:56.

in Syria? They are being reasonably cautious that they are pretty

:02:57.:02:59.

confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have

:03:00.:03:03.

happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he

:03:04.:03:07.

was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy

:03:08.:03:11.

Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said

:03:12.:03:16.

he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they

:03:17.:03:21.

would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there

:03:22.:03:25.

was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by

:03:26.:03:30.

Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he

:03:31.:03:36.

possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs at

:03:37.:03:41.

Westminster, he is indicating that if the Prime Minister set this

:03:42.:03:43.

out... It looks like the numbers are if the Prime Minister set this

:03:44.:03:48.

say was credible. We are told rebels thinking of voting with the

:03:49.:04:03.

Government or abstaining could be as high as 50. What is your

:04:04.:04:08.

intelligence? A huge number, from very senior people as well. Actually

:04:09.:04:13.

the number of senior people leaving, exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think

:04:14.:04:20.

a challenging week would be an understatement. It is at a whole new

:04:21.:04:25.

level. There is only so much time you can buy with free votes. Jeremy

:04:26.:04:29.

Corbyn opposes the party policy. This time he would set his own

:04:30.:04:34.

policy but no 1 would come with him. How many times can you play that

:04:35.:04:38.

trick before people say this is a loose conglomeration of individuals

:04:39.:04:44.

and not a party? Do you think he would go for a free vote? Maria

:04:45.:04:50.

Eagle has just published a paper which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn

:04:51.:04:56.

has been making noises about this. Who is there to support, apart from

:04:57.:05:01.

John McDonnell, in this position? He is very isolated on this. The

:05:02.:05:07.

problem for the Prime Minister is, in a sense he gets what he wishes

:05:08.:05:10.

for. We begin joining others in bombing and things do not really

:05:11.:05:16.

changed in Syria. I do not think the House of Commons is the primary

:05:17.:05:20.

obstacle facing David Cameron. I think he will get the votes could

:05:21.:05:23.

not see much because of the case he will make later this week but

:05:24.:05:27.

because what happened in the last week. They focused on all necessary

:05:28.:05:35.

measures and use combat as a metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor,

:05:36.:05:39.

I think. The biggest problem is not the Parliamentary vote for David

:05:40.:05:42.

Cameron, it is the diplomatic struggle to agree with Russia

:05:43.:05:46.

exactly how we go about this. Russia are happy to bomb in Syria against

:05:47.:05:51.

Isil but they are not happy to do so in a way which, in their words,

:05:52.:05:55.

destroys the statehood of Syria which alludes to their traditional

:05:56.:05:58.

support for the existing Syrian state and basher al-Assad. The

:05:59.:06:05.

politics is far more challenging than the technical act of getting

:06:06.:06:11.

the votes together. That is the problem. What is the endgame?

:06:12.:06:18.

Transition can sometimes take a long time. A very long transition.

:06:19.:06:24.

On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne will announce the Government's

:06:25.:06:26.

Over the next five years, they will total ?4 trillion.

:06:27.:06:29.

But even to stay within that barely imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne

:06:30.:06:32.

will have to continue to cut departmental and welfare spending.

:06:33.:06:35.

Hence the mantra you will hear this week of "a country that lives within

:06:36.:06:40.

its means" - in other words more of a squeeze on many public services.

:06:41.:06:44.

The Chancellor wants government departments to find

:06:45.:06:46.

a further ?20 billion worth of savings between now and 2020.

:06:47.:06:51.

So, where could that money come from?

:06:52.:06:54.

Welcome to our virtual Treasury courtyard.

:06:55.:06:59.

Now, they don't have one of these in the real courtyard

:07:00.:07:02.

but it represents everything the Government is due to spend this year

:07:03.:07:07.

I'm going to start by highlighting a few of the most significant parts

:07:08.:07:14.

You can see the ?217 billion which goes on Social Security.

:07:15.:07:21.

That includes everything from jobseeker's allowance to

:07:22.:07:24.

There is the ?35 billion the UK is due to spend this year

:07:25.:07:30.

And George Osborne says that's a figure he is determined to bring

:07:31.:07:38.

Now, the focus of his statement is the

:07:39.:07:42.

money which goes on administering and delivering public services.

:07:43.:07:45.

Here it is, and you can see it's just under half

:07:46.:07:51.

We are going to delve into the budgets of a few of the most

:07:52.:07:55.

It is the NHS which accounts for the biggest chunk

:07:56.:08:03.

The Chancellor is not going to find any of his savings here

:08:04.:08:08.

because he has promised to increase NHS funding in England by ?10

:08:09.:08:11.

The Government's also promised a real terms increase

:08:12.:08:20.

That is part of its commitment to meeting the Nato target of spending

:08:21.:08:26.

The Government is also committed to spending 0.7% of GDP

:08:27.:08:35.

on overseas aid - meaning that budget is also protected.

:08:36.:08:41.

So, the Chancellor is not going to find any of his ?20 billion

:08:42.:08:45.

of savings he says he needs to make from either health, defence or aid.

:08:46.:08:50.

So, where could it come from instead?

:08:51.:08:52.

What about from the education budget?

:08:53.:08:55.

That is a big part of what the state spends on public services.

:08:56.:08:59.

Here the Conservatives have promised a

:09:00.:09:01.

That means savings from here will be limited.

:09:02.:09:08.

Although the rest of the budget does not have any guaranteed protection.

:09:09.:09:13.

Here is the money that goes to English local authorities.

:09:14.:09:16.

This was one of the first departments to agree to big savings

:09:17.:09:19.

Let's look at the Home Office whose budget this year is ?10.6 billion.

:09:20.:09:29.

The single biggest thing Theresa May's department spends

:09:30.:09:31.

money on is the grant it gives to police forces in England and Wales.

:09:32.:09:37.

Although they also get some of their money from other sources including

:09:38.:09:40.

And some of the other departments which are going to have to find big

:09:41.:09:47.

savings over the next four years are the departments of business,

:09:48.:09:57.

But let's go back to that big part of government spending I mentioned

:09:58.:10:04.

Because of course that is where a lot

:10:05.:10:07.

of the focus has been in the weeks and months before this statement.

:10:08.:10:10.

Again here there is plenty the Chancellor will not touch.

:10:11.:10:12.

The state pension is a massive part of the budget.

:10:13.:10:16.

But the Government has a long-standing promise not to cut

:10:17.:10:18.

it along with various pensioner benefits.

:10:19.:10:23.

The other areas of big spending the Government has had to look to

:10:24.:10:26.

are housing benefit, disability benefits and incapacity benefits.

:10:27.:10:34.

And, you can see that big sum of money, ?30 billion,

:10:35.:10:37.

which is due to be spent on personal tax credits this year.

:10:38.:10:40.

An area where the Chancellor has found that making savings can

:10:41.:10:43.

So, the Chancellor faces some tricky trade-offs on Wednesday

:10:44.:10:49.

when he unveils his spending plans for the next five years.

:10:50.:10:52.

Paul Johnson from the Institute of Fiscal Studies has some ideas.

:10:53.:11:02.

Paul, welcome back to the programme. Let's start with this tricky

:11:03.:11:10.

question of tax credits. What is the Chancellor, in your view, most

:11:11.:11:15.

likely to do? He has two big choices. He can decide not to make

:11:16.:11:20.

any cuts, or much in the wake of cuts, next April. That is what all

:11:21.:11:25.

of the bus has been about, the cuts that will come in next April. -- the

:11:26.:11:30.

fuss. Most of the savings will come in the long run full he has also

:11:31.:11:34.

announced the new universal credit system will be much less generous

:11:35.:11:42.

than he was originally intending. In five or ten years time, even if he

:11:43.:11:45.

does not put the cut scene he was planning in April, he will still

:11:46.:11:48.

make much the same level of saving for them if he does that, his

:11:49.:11:51.

spending in 2016 on welfare for them if he does that, his

:11:52.:11:55.

will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust

:11:56.:11:59.

will be ?4 billion or so higher than own welfare cap, the cap he has

:12:00.:12:00.

legislated, which assumes he own welfare cap, the cap he has

:12:01.:12:05.

make those savings. That is one option. The other option is he will

:12:06.:12:13.

try to find some savings in 2016, maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits

:12:14.:12:15.

that have some savings and look elsewhere in the welfare budget to

:12:16.:12:22.

make up the rest of the savings. Whatever he does on tax credits

:12:23.:12:23.

make up the rest of the savings. cost money, certainly in the short

:12:24.:12:28.

run. His deficit reduction plan for the ship is

:12:29.:12:32.

run. His deficit reduction plan for trouble. He faces huge pressures to

:12:33.:12:34.

run. His deficit reduction plan for spend more on everything from health

:12:35.:12:39.

run. His deficit reduction plan for to Social Security. -- for this year

:12:40.:12:42.

run. His deficit reduction plan for is already in some trouble. The

:12:43.:12:44.

first thing to say about that surplus in

:12:45.:12:44.

first thing to say about that amount of uncertainty about

:12:45.:12:49.

first thing to say about that will be. Forecasting these things

:12:50.:12:51.

first thing to say about that view ad is an extreme you tricky and

:12:52.:12:56.

uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world

:12:57.:12:57.

uncertain business. Ignoring that, expects over the next few

:12:58.:13:01.

uncertain business. Ignoring that, will require cuts of about 25% in

:13:02.:13:03.

those unprotected apartments we have will require cuts of about 25% in

:13:04.:13:07.

just heard about the Home Office, local government, and so on,

:13:08.:13:08.

just heard about the Home Office, last parliament will Boyd -- involve

:13:09.:13:15.

really sharp last parliament will Boyd -- involve

:13:16.:13:16.

2020. They are big changes to way which we will deliver local

:13:17.:13:22.

Gottman way which we will deliver local

:13:23.:13:22.

delivering police force, way which we will deliver local

:13:23.:13:25.

will be delivering way which we will deliver local

:13:26.:13:36.

decade. Let me get these right. When you add up all the cuts, those made

:13:37.:13:42.

in those about to happen, between 20102020, major departments, the

:13:43.:13:46.

unprotected ones, will face cuts of up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is

:13:47.:13:57.

it doable? That is a good question. It may not turn up that badly if the

:13:58.:14:00.

economy does better than expected all the Chancellor finds some

:14:01.:14:05.

additional savings in Social Security, or he does not aim for the

:14:06.:14:11.

10 million surplus and goes for a 1 billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If

:14:12.:14:16.

he does go down that route, it will be more difficult than it was in the

:14:17.:14:22.

last parliament. If there were easy cuts to have made, they will have

:14:23.:14:26.

been made already. Do not forget one of the biggest bits of public

:14:27.:14:30.

spending goes on the pay of people who work in the public sector, the

:14:31.:14:35.

pay of nurses, teachers and civil servants and so on. That was quite

:14:36.:14:39.

easy to hold down over the last parliament. Pay in the private

:14:40.:14:44.

sector was doing so badly. We expect, almost economists now expect

:14:45.:14:49.

that pay in the private sector will rise well to be strongly. In that

:14:50.:14:57.

world it will be quite hard to hold down pay right across the public

:14:58.:15:00.

sector, as he said he would do back in the July budget.

:15:01.:15:02.

Joining me now Nigel Lawson, Margaret Thatcher's longest serving

:15:03.:15:04.

Welcome back to the programme. Thank you, I enjoyed your rant the other

:15:05.:15:15.

day. It was not a rant, it was a carefully scripted commentary but

:15:16.:15:19.

thank you for your remarks. Let me take an overall review on the

:15:20.:15:24.

Chancellor 's position. The borrowing figures for October were

:15:25.:15:28.

pretty bad, looks like he will overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is

:15:29.:15:36.

the austerity programme in trouble again? It is difficult, he has a

:15:37.:15:40.

difficult time because of these ridiculous protected programmes

:15:41.:15:47.

which should not exist. Aid is going up again and again, the Nobel Prize

:15:48.:15:51.

for economics has been given to an English economist, he is Scottish in

:15:52.:15:58.

fact, and one of his principal findings, he is a great expert on

:15:59.:16:04.

global poverty and one of his major findings is that overseas aid

:16:05.:16:08.

although well-intentioned does more harm than good. Yet that is going up

:16:09.:16:13.

and up. He has got a tough time but it can be done. When I was

:16:14.:16:20.

Chancellor I was able to balance the budget and get it into surplus and

:16:21.:16:26.

he has to do it as well. He has huge pressure on security, the police,

:16:27.:16:32.

the NHS, we were just talking about mitigating cuts on the tax credit

:16:33.:16:38.

side, these are all hard to resist in the current atmosphere. It is

:16:39.:16:41.

going to be very difficult and although I suspect it will mainly be

:16:42.:16:46.

cuts in savings in public spending I think he will have to do more on the

:16:47.:16:50.

tax side than he would have liked. There is some logic in that, for

:16:51.:16:57.

example it looks as if, Paul Johnson was seeing, or maybe it was you, but

:16:58.:17:01.

he is likely to some extent to defer the cutting of the tax credits. It's

:17:02.:17:07.

quite right to take a knife to the tax credits, they have grown far too

:17:08.:17:12.

much and are undesirable in their present size. But nonetheless what

:17:13.:17:16.

he did propose originally was a bit too much for some and therefore he

:17:17.:17:22.

has got to delay it a bit. But when he presented, he presented a package

:17:23.:17:25.

including raising income tax threshold. He could, as part of the

:17:26.:17:32.

package delay that a little bit and help on the tax side. The government

:17:33.:17:38.

has always said it will do all the heavy lifting, the heavy lifting

:17:39.:17:42.

will be done by cuts in spending rather than increasing taxes. Will

:17:43.:17:45.

he now have to look at increasing some taxes are hats at a time of low

:17:46.:17:51.

oil prices on fuel duty? I think that's a good suggestion and it is

:17:52.:17:59.

sensible to do that. But defer a reduction which he might find

:18:00.:18:04.

less... Yes but might he have to look at some tax rises? I think you

:18:05.:18:11.

should look at the fuel duty, yes. President Hollande has said that

:18:12.:18:14.

national security comes before deficit reduction, he has sidelined

:18:15.:18:21.

the fiscal pact he has with the rest of Europe. He plans a huge increase

:18:22.:18:27.

in security spending, 17,000 more police and border guards and other

:18:28.:18:31.

security personnel. Will the British be looking at George Osborne to do

:18:32.:18:36.

something similar next week? President Hollande has never been

:18:37.:18:39.

keen on deficit-reduction in the first place. It's not unconnected

:18:40.:18:43.

with the fact as well that the French economy, and I live in

:18:44.:18:46.

France, the French economy is in a bad way. We are doing much better.

:18:47.:18:54.

Security is important but the government has said very clearly

:18:55.:18:59.

that it is going to be keeping to the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence

:19:00.:19:05.

spending, something France is not doing even though it has

:19:06.:19:08.

considerable defence expenditure. The leaked letter from one of the

:19:09.:19:13.

most senior police officers to the Home Secretary says cuts to police

:19:14.:19:18.

budgets could reduce very significantly the ability to respond

:19:19.:19:21.

to a Paris style attack. The Chancellor is going to be under

:19:22.:19:27.

pressure to make security more important than deficit-reduction.

:19:28.:19:30.

Certainly for the foreseeable future. Security is essential. It is

:19:31.:19:36.

vital. But I think the police are complaining a little bit too much.

:19:37.:19:40.

Look how much the police are spending now on chasing up often

:19:41.:19:48.

unsubstantiated accusations of historic sex abuse. That has got

:19:49.:19:52.

nothing to do with security. Those resources should be put where they

:19:53.:19:55.

need is. I think also what the police need is not just money, and

:19:56.:20:01.

the security services to, they need intelligence. I think it would make

:20:02.:20:04.

a lot of sense and what I would like to see the government doing is to

:20:05.:20:08.

expedite the passage of the investigatory Powers Bill which is

:20:09.:20:17.

long overdue and badly needed. In this climate you accept that cutting

:20:18.:20:23.

the top rate of income tax back to the 40% that you originally

:20:24.:20:27.

introduced, that that is politically impossible for the foreseeable

:20:28.:20:31.

future? It depends how far you can proceed. I would hope that during

:20:32.:20:37.

this parliament it can be done. It is politically difficult but there

:20:38.:20:41.

is no budgetary reason against it. When I cut it it increased revenue

:20:42.:20:46.

and it would do so again. The cap which George Osborne has already

:20:47.:20:50.

done in the last parliament from 50, 245 even though the Liberal

:20:51.:20:55.

Democrats he did it and it raised money and didn't cost anything. To

:20:56.:21:02.

be cutting police numbers, to be struggling to find money for the

:21:03.:21:06.

NHS, to be doing something for the working poor on tax credits, making

:21:07.:21:11.

life a bit more difficult for them but then to be cutting the top rate

:21:12.:21:16.

of the highest earners? That is why I don't think you can be doing it

:21:17.:21:21.

now that you were asking about the foreseeable future. You still think

:21:22.:21:24.

he can do it before the end of this Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how

:21:25.:21:31.

confident are you feeling about winning the referendum to withdraw?

:21:32.:21:38.

Nobody can call a referendum. It is difficult enough sometimes to call a

:21:39.:21:41.

general election and referendums are even harder to call. Logically I

:21:42.:21:47.

don't think he will do it. Logically David Cameron ought to be

:21:48.:21:54.

campaigning to leave because what he said at the beginning was he was

:21:55.:21:57.

dissatisfied with the European Union as it is. He wanted a fundamental

:21:58.:22:04.

reform to be enshrined in treaty change. Then stay in a reformed

:22:05.:22:11.

European Union. There is not going to be a reformed European Union.

:22:12.:22:15.

There will not be a treaty change. What the referendum is going to be

:22:16.:22:20.

about is if you want to stay in or leave and an reform European Union.

:22:21.:22:24.

So logically he ought to say leave and that is where I am because if it

:22:25.:22:28.

is an reform we don't want to stay in it. So even if the primer Mr was

:22:29.:22:33.

to get all his renegotiation demands such as we know them it would not

:22:34.:22:48.

change your mind on coming out? No, if he demanded a lot more and got

:22:49.:22:51.

it, major reforms which I have written about but I don't have time

:22:52.:22:54.

to go into no, I think it would be welcomed right across the European

:22:55.:23:02.

Union. This is not the view of the majority of the people, but we

:23:03.:23:04.

cannot tell the rest of the countries what to do, all we can say

:23:05.:23:09.

is what we are going to do. As we get closer to the referendum date,

:23:10.:23:13.

we don't know when it will be but when we get closer to it being

:23:14.:23:18.

announced, in terms of who seem to be the major figure who leads your

:23:19.:23:22.

side of the referendum campaign, if not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not

:23:23.:23:33.

Nigel Farage. I think the people who want to stay in have put up a

:23:34.:23:39.

businessman. Stewart draws. Not a particularly captivating

:23:40.:23:46.

businessman. Who will be the equivalent? I have no idea, but we

:23:47.:23:50.

will wait and see but it certainly won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an

:23:51.:23:57.

important player. Why not? Because Ukip has just one member of

:23:58.:24:03.

Parliament. We are a parliamentary democracy and the majority party is

:24:04.:24:06.

the Conservative Party. Nigel Lawson, thank you for being with us.

:24:07.:24:09.

Thank you. It's been a pretty torrid week

:24:10.:24:12.

for the Labour Party. Splits on everything

:24:13.:24:14.

from how to deal with terrorists to Trident, to Ken Livingstone,

:24:15.:24:17.

culminating in a bizarre row about whether or not the Shadow

:24:18.:24:19.

Chancellor wants to scrap MI5. John McDonnell insists Britain's

:24:20.:24:22.

spies are safe in his hands, though he did admit that

:24:23.:24:24.

his party has had a "rough week". It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn

:24:25.:24:27.

and his party grappled with issues In the wake of the Paris attacks,

:24:28.:24:34.

the Labour leader said he was not happy with the idea

:24:35.:24:40.

of police officers shooting to kill on British streets, which led to

:24:41.:24:43.

a very stormy party meeting, So, you tweeted, "please tell me it

:24:44.:24:46.

is not true that Jeremy just said, faced with Kalashnikov-wielding

:24:47.:24:56.

genocidal fascists, our security I,

:24:57.:24:58.

along with millions of Labour voters in this country, were very concerned

:24:59.:25:06.

by the interview that Jeremy gave. Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow

:25:07.:25:09.

Foreign Secretary, clarified matters very quickly and restated support

:25:10.:25:14.

for the use of lethal force and, support of the use of drone strikes,

:25:15.:25:17.

which Jeremy had also questioned. Jeremy himself, thankfully,

:25:18.:25:22.

a few hours later, also issued a clarification,

:25:23.:25:25.

and I'm very pleased he did. A lot of Labour voters will

:25:26.:25:27.

have been very relieved. Then came a row about the former

:25:28.:25:31.

Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, being appointed to co-chair

:25:32.:25:38.

the party's review of Trident, and the emergence of a letter from a

:25:39.:25:41.

campaign group calling for MI5 to be disbanded that the Shadow

:25:42.:25:44.

Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems And we found something else

:25:45.:25:46.

interesting that John This Parliamentary motion he

:25:47.:25:50.

proposed last October saying taxpayers who do not

:25:51.:25:57.

like war should be able to opt out The military is where

:25:58.:26:00.

the next battle may lie. If and

:26:01.:26:05.

when the Government brings forward plans to extend British air strikes

:26:06.:26:10.

from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs want to vote in favour, while

:26:11.:26:14.

their leader is a committed One Labour figure is speaking out

:26:15.:26:16.

for the first time. I think it would be wrong to suggest

:26:17.:26:23.

there is a settled view on the People will bring

:26:24.:26:26.

their own prejudices, which are from being instinctively

:26:27.:26:30.

for intervention, to having long The only thing I would ask of all

:26:31.:26:33.

of my colleagues is we look at this with an open mind,

:26:34.:26:39.

examining the facts rather than seeing how it matches our

:26:40.:26:45.

prejudices, and then reach a decision which is in the national

:26:46.:26:53.

interest. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn

:26:54.:26:54.

is able to do that? He has some very strongly held views

:26:55.:26:57.

that we should not get involved He may have to come to

:26:58.:27:00.

a point where he says, now that I'm not just a backbencher,

:27:01.:27:05.

I am actually the Leader of There is an element

:27:06.:27:08.

of national interest and that is For the young Corbynites at this

:27:09.:27:12.

event about Labour's economic policy The only reason we look bad to

:27:13.:27:16.

the general public, the only reason we do not look very strong at the

:27:17.:27:23.

moment, is that we are not united. If you have criticisms with

:27:24.:27:28.

the Leader, you should take it up It is not fitting to do these things

:27:29.:27:30.

in the press, criticising people. Do you think there is a plot

:27:31.:27:35.

against Jeremy Corbyn? If they are planning

:27:36.:27:38.

a plot they should probably think about the fact Jeremy was elected

:27:39.:27:46.

with 59.5% of the vote, I think. And we saw, from the beginning,

:27:47.:27:49.

he went from the least likely person to get

:27:50.:27:56.

in to the front runner, to the If people are plotting to get rid

:27:57.:27:59.

of him, they really should listen The party should be based

:28:00.:28:03.

around what the party members want. Unfortunately for them there will be

:28:04.:28:07.

another flash point On Tuesday there will be a vote

:28:08.:28:09.

in the House of Commons on Trident, Labour MPs have been

:28:10.:28:14.

instructed not to turn up. We understand a bunch of them,

:28:15.:28:19.

including some big names, are thinking about defying

:28:20.:28:22.

their Leader and voting It would be a largely symbolic vote

:28:23.:28:24.

but another visible symbol of I'm joined now from Doncaster

:28:25.:28:31.

by the Labour MP Caroline Flint - she was a minister under Tony Blair

:28:32.:28:40.

and Gordon Brown. Good morning, thank you for coming

:28:41.:28:51.

back on the programme. Let me begin with a general question, it's been a

:28:52.:28:55.

pretty terrible week for Labour, what is the mood now on the Labour

:28:56.:29:00.

backbenches among your colleagues? It's not been a great week for

:29:01.:29:05.

Labour, that is correct. I think part of the reason for that is we

:29:06.:29:09.

haven't looked certain and confident on some of the big issues the nation

:29:10.:29:14.

are worried about. What we have to have from the leadership, not just

:29:15.:29:18.

Jeremy but those around him, is certainty about what we think about

:29:19.:29:25.

what is happening in terms of the terrorist acts in Paris. But more

:29:26.:29:30.

widely about what the certainty we can offer as Labour Party about how

:29:31.:29:34.

we will support our national security. I think understandably

:29:35.:29:39.

there have been concerns, I don't think just on the backbenches of the

:29:40.:29:43.

Labour Party, but also amongst the Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but

:29:44.:29:47.

also more widely amongst the party membership as well. The news has

:29:48.:29:52.

been dominated for a week now by these terrible events in Paris. Has

:29:53.:29:58.

Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour response to these events? I think

:29:59.:30:05.

what is really important is that with leadership does come a massive

:30:06.:30:12.

responsibility to speak clearly and with certainty about a whole number

:30:13.:30:17.

of issues. But probably more than any other subject area if you like

:30:18.:30:20.

national security demands that. Because at a time where we are all

:30:21.:30:25.

reeling from what has happened in Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy

:30:26.:30:29.

Corbyn takes very, very seriously what has happened there and its

:30:30.:30:31.

implication for the security of British people as well and others

:30:32.:30:38.

around the world. The question of allowing our pleas through the legal

:30:39.:30:42.

framework which already exists to take action when they are presented

:30:43.:30:45.

with a terrorist in front of them but also on some of the other

:30:46.:30:48.

matters about how we should move forward in a united way with other

:30:49.:30:53.

countries to tackle Isil, I think that certainty has been wanting and

:30:54.:30:57.

not helped, I have to say, when other members of the Shadow Cabinet

:30:58.:31:01.

cannot speak with one voice about what the leader wants to do. I hope

:31:02.:31:08.

out of this week we will see some clarity and certainty coming forward

:31:09.:31:12.

and I think we already know, and I have heard more this morning, that

:31:13.:31:16.

David Cameron will come back to the House of Commons this week. We do

:31:17.:31:21.

need a plan, it can't just be about military action, it has to be more

:31:22.:31:25.

than that and I hope we can be in a position to opportunity going

:31:26.:31:28.

forward to tackle the threat of Isil which is the most major threat to

:31:29.:31:31.

security around the world that we have at the moment.

:31:32.:31:36.

If Mr Cameron comes form with that dashes forward with that kind of

:31:37.:31:45.

plan, would you back military action in Syria? I believe there can be a

:31:46.:31:49.

case former literary action in Syria. We are facing the most

:31:50.:31:56.

profoundly barbaric group of terrorists I think I have ever

:31:57.:32:00.

realised in my lifetime or thought about. -- military action. Also the

:32:01.:32:06.

most resourced group of terrorists in the world. It is a different

:32:07.:32:12.

situation to what we faced a few years ago where I voted against

:32:13.:32:15.

military action when Cameron came back to Parliament to deal with

:32:16.:32:22.

Assad. We have in this country and this region, a number of dangerous

:32:23.:32:28.

groups. There are a number of -- there is a hierarchy of dangerous

:32:29.:32:34.

groups and Isil is the top of that list. If it can be about, yes, what

:32:35.:32:42.

sort of military action should take place, maybe the air strikes... Like

:32:43.:32:49.

we are doing in Iraq, within that a wider plan as to how we will deal

:32:50.:32:52.

with civil war in Syria and what else we need to do going forward.

:32:53.:32:58.

That is something I feel I could support. You say there is no doubt

:32:59.:33:02.

that the Labour leadership takes these matters seriously. Can I point

:33:03.:33:06.

out, just before the election this year, the Shadow Chancellor penned

:33:07.:33:14.

his name to a document supporting the abolition of MI5 and disarming

:33:15.:33:19.

the police? Last year he supported people opting out of having their

:33:20.:33:23.

taxes fund any kind of military activity. I do not think... I

:33:24.:33:29.

suspect a lot of people will not think that is taking these issues

:33:30.:33:33.

very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit to hold the second most important

:33:34.:33:39.

position within the Shadow Cabinet? One of the aspects of the leadership

:33:40.:33:43.

campaign over the summer was a sense that Jeremy was authentic and very

:33:44.:33:50.

clear about his views. And, you know, they may not be shared with

:33:51.:33:54.

everybody, I may have some different views to Jeremy on that. Part of his

:33:55.:34:00.

appeal was the authenticity, that it did not have any spin. He said he

:34:01.:34:07.

did not realise what he do when he held that the letter and seemed to

:34:08.:34:12.

support it. We had a leadership election. There was a massive surge

:34:13.:34:17.

in our membership and Jeremy had an overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you

:34:18.:34:23.

know, Jeremy and John McDonnell, have earned the right within that to

:34:24.:34:27.

put forward their views. What is clear to me, I am a moderate

:34:28.:34:32.

politician, but I am also a conviction politician. I do not say

:34:33.:34:35.

one thing to one group of people and another to another group of people.

:34:36.:34:39.

If the leadership believes in these things, they should say that and the

:34:40.:34:44.

biggest test is then to let the British people determine whether

:34:45.:34:49.

they agree with them or not. I think clarity, authenticity and honesty,

:34:50.:34:54.

they are all very important and that is how you create trust. The last

:34:55.:34:59.

election, at the end, it was clear your party had a problem over the

:35:00.:35:04.

issue of economic security. When Mr Corbyn has said about not shooting

:35:05.:35:08.

terrorists and his reservations about killing jihadi John, is not a

:35:09.:35:15.

danger, as some polls suggest this morning, though it is not a danger,

:35:16.:35:20.

as some polls suggest this morning, voters are national security and not

:35:21.:35:26.

just economic security? When it comes to leadership, as you know,

:35:27.:35:30.

you may have your own view is that you had before but you have to be

:35:31.:35:34.

open to actually other views as well. That is why we're having this

:35:35.:35:38.

debate within the Parliamentary Labour Party as to how we get a

:35:39.:35:45.

position regarding what we do next in Syria. Jeremy has an overwhelming

:35:46.:35:50.

mandate. With that comes a responsibility leadership which

:35:51.:35:54.

shows the ideas he puts forward and answers to these really difficult

:35:55.:35:57.

questions, whether on the economy national security, can also reach

:35:58.:36:01.

out beyond the Parliamentary Labour Party and to that matter the Labour

:36:02.:36:09.

Party. Part of that is winning People's trust to back you. That is

:36:10.:36:14.

the task, not just the Jeremy but any leader of the leather party. He

:36:15.:36:18.

needs to show he can do that. I think he wants to do that. -- the

:36:19.:36:24.

Labour Party. They have said this morning they will have a full

:36:25.:36:27.

discussion in the Shadow Cabinet and there will be discussions within the

:36:28.:36:31.

Parliamentary Labour Party as well. Leadership does require a wider

:36:32.:36:35.

reach and responsibility beyond boundaries. Are you surprised that

:36:36.:36:41.

in so many personal appointments, John McDonnell, Ken Livingstone now

:36:42.:36:48.

on defence, Mr Corbyn seems to have made no effort to reach out to the

:36:49.:36:52.

centre of your party, much less the right of it? Well, all party

:36:53.:36:59.

leaders, I have to say, and I have seen a few, do tend to sometimes

:37:00.:37:03.

surround themselves not only with elected politicians but the paid

:37:04.:37:08.

staff who are part of their group. For any party leader, whoever they

:37:09.:37:13.

point, they have to show they will work in a way that is not just

:37:14.:37:18.

fashioned by their own particular background and experience and maybe

:37:19.:37:22.

their own point of view. There is a wider responsibility here. The

:37:23.:37:26.

Labour Party is not a pressure group. We exist to win elections in

:37:27.:37:32.

order to put our platform into practice in government. Therefore,

:37:33.:37:36.

the people around Jeremy, who have been appointed, they have to

:37:37.:37:41.

demonstrate they understand the responsibilities of that,

:37:42.:37:43.

responsibilities to the wider Labour Party. Some people within it he may

:37:44.:37:47.

not agree with him on everything but at heart we all want to win the next

:37:48.:37:52.

election. Importantly, 400,000 people took part in the leadership

:37:53.:37:58.

election. That is amazing. We have had a ground swell of people join

:37:59.:38:08.

the party and many of them want to be active in a very positive way. I

:38:09.:38:11.

welcome mat. We have to convince millions of people to support us in

:38:12.:38:14.

the next election and in all the elections up to 2020. Final question

:38:15.:38:20.

to you, if Mr Corbyn continues the way he has begun, will he be leading

:38:21.:38:25.

your party into the 2020 election? Does he have any chance of winning?

:38:26.:38:33.

Look, we have had, seven, eight, nine weeks since the leadership

:38:34.:38:37.

election. It has been rocky along the way. We have made significant

:38:38.:38:41.

impact when it came to the debate around tax credits for working

:38:42.:38:47.

people. Will he lead your party into the next election? What Jeremy has

:38:48.:38:52.

to do now is focused on how he leads our party right now. That will

:38:53.:38:57.

determine our fortunes in the weeks, months and also in 2020. Thank you

:38:58.:39:00.

for joining us. We say goodbye to viewers

:39:01.:39:03.

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:39:04.:39:08.

in Northern Ireland. A final speech to

:39:09.:39:25.

the party faithful - Peter Robinson I think the outpouring of emotion

:39:26.:39:40.

shows how much he is loved within this party and how much people

:39:41.:39:45.

rightly regard him as not just a politician but a statesman.

:39:46.:39:47.

And it was titled A Fresh Start - but with victims' groups up in arms

:39:48.:39:51.

about being excluded, some have branded it more of a false start.

:39:52.:39:54.

We'll hear the thoughts of my guests - the News Letter's Political

:39:55.:39:57.

Correspondent, Sam McBride, and Allison Morris from The Irish News.

:39:58.:40:02.

Peter Robinson has given his final conference leader's speech to

:40:03.:40:07.

the party which he said he has lived in since the day of its birth.

:40:08.:40:10.

The outgoing First Minister said his work is almost done,

:40:11.:40:13.

and it's time for a new generation to step forward.

:40:14.:40:15.

I've been speaking to Mr Robinson - and we'll hear his thoughts on this

:40:16.:40:18.

latest deal, the shortcomings of the Ulster Unionists and why compromise

:40:19.:40:22.

But first, our Political Correspondent,

:40:23.:40:25.

Chris Page, was at the conference at the La Mon Hotel in County Down.

:40:26.:40:33.

It's the last time he'll do this. Peter Robinson helped to found the

:40:34.:40:42.

DUP and says he remembers hoovering down party lanes to get to meetings.

:40:43.:40:48.

Now he is moving his way through a crowd of his admirers. If First

:40:49.:40:54.

Minister is preparing for a new stage in life. In a few weeks' time

:40:55.:40:59.

I will step out of the limelight. The pattern of leadership will pass

:41:00.:41:04.

to others. This transition doesn't need to mark an end, only a new

:41:05.:41:09.

beginning. You may see it that way need to mark an end, only a new

:41:10.:41:13.

their emotions about their departure. I did it give you a

:41:14.:41:28.

bless you all. This is a formidable farewell for Peter Robinson. The DUP

:41:29.:41:33.

is paying a tremendous tribute to the man who masterminded its move

:41:34.:41:37.

from being a party of protest for a party of power. I will never be able

:41:38.:41:42.

to properly thank Peter after all he has done for the country but we

:41:43.:41:47.

tried today and I think the outpouring of emotion shows how much

:41:48.:41:53.

he is loved within the party. I know more than most over the last 12

:41:54.:41:59.

months what it is to have a leader like Peter Robinson. He has

:42:00.:42:05.

supported me. He was there. He was incisive in his decision. So the

:42:06.:42:09.

party focus now is on who will take over. The next head of the Stormont

:42:10.:42:12.

executive will have lots of chances. This model is designed to

:42:13.:42:18.

highlight one, waiting times for hospital I appointments but the DUP

:42:19.:42:21.

say they are on the right road. We are on the motorway. He has set us

:42:22.:42:26.

on a course which we collectively have embraced. People want to see us

:42:27.:42:30.

progressing and moving along that motorway at a greater speed. I would

:42:31.:42:36.

happily said any of our people, man for man, woman for women against

:42:37.:42:41.

other leadership challenges. I am very confident that the party is

:42:42.:42:47.

left to make the best decision. At a time of change, what

:42:48.:42:50.

left to make the best decision. At a politicians think of where it is

:42:51.:42:50.

going? It is attracting new and politicians think of where it is

:42:51.:42:55.

energetic young people into it but politicians think of where it is

:42:56.:42:57.

in terms of Northern Ireland moving forward, there is so much more to be

:42:58.:43:03.

achieved in investment, trying to attract jobs. I think in terms of

:43:04.:43:05.

the package that the DUP attract jobs. I think in terms of

:43:06.:43:10.

other party offers it. I don't think the party needs to

:43:11.:43:12.

other party offers it. I don't think sense. I think they are

:43:13.:43:16.

other party offers it. I don't think sound policies. I actually think

:43:17.:43:18.

they are party that everybody in Northern Ireland should get behind.

:43:19.:43:22.

How many will do that will become clear in the Stormont elections next

:43:23.:43:26.

year. The party has used this conference to prepare for that. It

:43:27.:43:29.

has merely been about giving Peter Robinson eight Sterling sendoff.

:43:30.:43:32.

Chris Page among the party faithful in County Down.

:43:33.:43:34.

Well I spoke to Mr Robinson just moments after he'd made that

:43:35.:43:37.

farewell speech, and I began by asking him about his verbal

:43:38.:43:39.

I think our position -- their position has been disgraceful, to

:43:40.:43:53.

come out of the executive simply because of electoral convenience. I

:43:54.:43:57.

think it says little for the party and then to try and scheme away so

:43:58.:44:02.

they can get back in, I think it was reprehensible. They weren't prepared

:44:03.:44:08.

to roll up their sleeves and get an agreement, prepared to allow us to

:44:09.:44:11.

take all the hard decisions so they could jump up on them afterwards. I

:44:12.:44:15.

think they deserved a site were too and I think the people of Northern

:44:16.:44:19.

Ireland will not think kindly on those who were preparing to move

:44:20.:44:24.

Northern Ireland forward... It is bizarre. We can all stand on our own

:44:25.:44:31.

party platforms and all give the rhetoric which suits our own party

:44:32.:44:35.

supporters but the true test of leadership is whether we are

:44:36.:44:38.

prepared to sit down and reach accommodation with others. The UUP

:44:39.:44:43.

were not prepared to do that. I wondered if you would be able to

:44:44.:44:48.

reach any future accommodation with the Ulster Unionist Party. It was

:44:49.:44:53.

bizarre to hear a DUP leader in a conference speech talking about

:44:54.:44:58.

electoral convenience, short termism and short-sightedness. Nothing like

:44:59.:45:00.

that on the other side against republicans. I think everybody knows

:45:01.:45:07.

the position I adopt in relation to republicans but at least republicans

:45:08.:45:11.

were prepared to sit down and negotiate and prepared to reach

:45:12.:45:15.

agreement and to copyrights. I think that shows a greater level of

:45:16.:45:19.

political maturity and I hope that the Ulster Unionist Party won't

:45:20.:45:22.

allow themselves to be led along a path that takes them into oblivion

:45:23.:45:27.

and put them to the sidelines of Ulster politics. They should be in

:45:28.:45:31.

the centre of politics, not the sidelines. Let's talk about the end

:45:32.:45:35.

of your political leadership. Your predecessor Ian Piercy felt he was

:45:36.:45:39.

pushed out at the of his career -- Paisley. He was very public about

:45:40.:45:45.

that. You're saying your decision to go was your choice but you must have

:45:46.:45:50.

known that if he didn't go, you would be pushed? Well, that isn't

:45:51.:45:54.

the case. Indeed, all of the urging was for me to stay. Indeed, part of

:45:55.:45:59.

the reason for my public announcement was to put it beyond

:46:00.:46:02.

the stage where it could be returned. I have had massive support

:46:03.:46:07.

within the party and I am very grateful to all of my colleagues.

:46:08.:46:11.

There is no sense of being pushed whatsoever. Of course, every

:46:12.:46:15.

political party has a range of political views within it. There are

:46:16.:46:19.

people, but her personality and other reasons, will have a different

:46:20.:46:23.

view than I have. However, I am happy to say, they are in very small

:46:24.:46:29.

numbers and are not exactly in the most influential end of the party.

:46:30.:46:33.

Would it surprise you to hear that I have spoken to several senior

:46:34.:46:35.

members of the party on this very subject in recent weeks and one of

:46:36.:46:39.

them would talk to me about the need for you to go, was standing on the

:46:40.:46:43.

platform and having you at the end of that speech? It doesn't surprise

:46:44.:46:48.

me. You and I both know who it is. That is why I say that it is a

:46:49.:46:54.

small, very small group within the party and happily one that didn't

:46:55.:46:58.

have a lot of influence. You have been seen by many throughout your

:46:59.:46:59.

career been seen by many throughout your

:47:00.:47:05.

strategist. And he filled recently though that may be your becoming a

:47:06.:47:09.

bit of a potential electoral liability, as your golden touch

:47:10.:47:12.

seemed to desert you? I am thinking here about having to answer

:47:13.:47:17.

questions about the Nama sale of the Northern Ireland known bug. You have

:47:18.:47:21.

very publicly denied this. Also the end held ministerial strategy which

:47:22.:47:28.

was very popular with the party and the sudden elevation of Emma

:47:29.:47:32.

Pengelly didn't play well in certain quarters. First of all, as far as

:47:33.:47:36.

Nama is concerned, you can hardly suggest that that is some loss of

:47:37.:47:40.

touch. Because somebody decides to smear doesn't mean that I have lost

:47:41.:47:46.

any touch. The time I think all deal fully and effectively with this

:47:47.:47:50.

issue. As far as the in alp policy, as these were decisions of the party

:47:51.:47:55.

officers. It was the tactical and right thing to do in these

:47:56.:47:58.

circumstances to avoid the collapse of the Assembly, and as far as Emma

:47:59.:48:03.

is concerned, as I look across the Assembly group, and I have to take

:48:04.:48:07.

my decisions in choosing a minister, on the basis of what is the merit of

:48:08.:48:11.

that individual, there is nobody in the Assembly in any political party

:48:12.:48:18.

who knows the functions of OFM DFM better than Emma does and no wonder

:48:19.:48:22.

would be more capable of doing the job. As you will be a first class

:48:23.:48:26.

representative for South Belfast. Are you going to adopt the same

:48:27.:48:30.

strategy in finding your replacement as an MLA for East Belfast, somebody

:48:31.:48:34.

from your inner circle, bright young thing? I do believe in the general

:48:35.:48:39.

principle of bringing talented young thing? I do believe in the general

:48:40.:48:51.

thing to do. It's just a didn't play particularly well in South Belfast.

:48:52.:48:54.

Other members of your party thought they had first dibs and were very

:48:55.:49:00.

disappointed and answer the question if I had asked you but if he had

:49:01.:49:04.

been in the position of the party officers and it was a party of the

:49:05.:49:08.

decision, not my decision, if he had been in that disposition to have

:49:09.:49:12.

traduced to get the most talented individual for South Belfast, who

:49:13.:49:16.

would you have chosen? Well, that wasn't my choice, you made your

:49:17.:49:19.

choice and you received some criticism for it and you may have

:49:20.:49:23.

lost a number of the party over it, it is your choice. I think if you

:49:24.:49:28.

are more up-to-date, you would know we have expelled that member. She

:49:29.:49:32.

has been given that information. As far as you're concerned, Ruth

:49:33.:49:37.

Patterson is no longer a member of the DUP? Party officers unanimously

:49:38.:49:42.

decided to expel her earlier this week. What I want to ask you is, who

:49:43.:49:48.

is the real Peter Robinson? You have been described as something of a

:49:49.:49:53.

chameleon. Is the real Peter Robinson the hard-line

:49:54.:49:55.

uncompromising unionist or is it the Progressive unionist Party who wants

:49:56.:49:59.

to do think differently, who we occasionally cod quotas of in the

:50:00.:50:05.

past two years? I am a determined unionist who wants to take Northern

:50:06.:50:08.

Ireland forward because that is the best way to safeguard the union.

:50:09.:50:12.

Everybody reacts in different circumstances depending on what they

:50:13.:50:16.

are having to be faced with. When there was a threat against Northern

:50:17.:50:20.

Ireland's position within the United Kingdom, when we were being bombed

:50:21.:50:25.

and shot in our homes, of course you saw a hard side of Peter Robinson,

:50:26.:50:29.

now we have the opportunity to really make progress in Northern

:50:30.:50:33.

Ireland and to take it forward so now you are seeing what you describe

:50:34.:50:34.

as the progressive Peter Robinson. Let's see what my guests make

:50:35.:50:36.

of that. Joining me are Allison Morris

:50:37.:50:38.

and Sam McBride. As he leads the stage, it is Peter

:50:39.:50:50.

Robinson working to be remembered as the one who moved from a party of

:50:51.:50:54.

protest to the party of Progressive unionist Party macro I think it is

:50:55.:50:57.

difficult to sum up Peter Robinson's time in terms of his time

:50:58.:51:02.

as First Minister. There is it watershed with the

:51:03.:51:04.

as First Minister. There is it After that point he was using set

:51:05.:51:09.

piece speeches such as yesterday to appeal to Catholic voters

:51:10.:51:11.

piece speeches such as yesterday to there was a benign apartheid

:51:12.:51:13.

segregated education, the language of moderate unionism, even alliance.

:51:14.:51:19.

Very quickly, after the fight of moderate unionism, even alliance.

:51:20.:51:24.

put on the back of moderate unionism, even alliance.

:51:25.:51:28.

then he has been very pragmatic. He has moved one direction, then the

:51:29.:51:33.

other. Very difficult to say what he stood for when he was leader. It is

:51:34.:51:36.

fascinating, Allison, isn't it? stood for when he was leader. It is

:51:37.:51:40.

lot of criticism of the Ulster Unionist Party but hardly a mention

:51:41.:51:43.

of Sinn Fein and compromised apparently the scene, it is no

:51:44.:51:48.

longer a dirty word. I think it was a fascinating interview. We know he

:51:49.:51:51.

announces departure this week but it was done in a very choreographed

:51:52.:51:52.

way. An was done in a very choreographed

:51:53.:51:59.

for the lamest -- Ulster Unionist was done in a very choreographed

:52:00.:52:04.

the crisis in the Assembly was supposed to be in relation to

:52:05.:52:07.

republican violence and the murder of Kevin McGuigan, that all seems to

:52:08.:52:11.

have been forgotten about and as he was leaving his speech, it was saved

:52:12.:52:16.

for fellow unionists. It is fascinating. I'm not surprised he

:52:17.:52:20.

has changed tack and tried to become the progressive Peter Robinson

:52:21.:52:23.

because he would want the legacy to be anything but that. -- wouldn't

:52:24.:52:30.

want. The events of the last year have been complete contradictions,

:52:31.:52:34.

he has tried to ride two horses. Some nationalists will not be

:52:35.:52:39.

persuaded? Not at all. Before 2012, there was a lot of talk about

:52:40.:52:44.

attracting Catholic voters. Once we saw the flight protest, we saw his

:52:45.:52:47.

lack of leadership and inability to push things forward to meet the

:52:48.:52:51.

difficult decisions. He buckled down to the lowest common to nominate and

:52:52.:52:58.

that would put any nationalist of. Sam, a final thought from you. They

:52:59.:53:02.

were very clear in that interview that his decision was his, but he

:53:03.:53:06.

had been writing about this for quite some time. That interpretation

:53:07.:53:10.

of the sequence of events is not what a lot of observers believe. It

:53:11.:53:16.

say understandably that he is very clear that interview. In some senses

:53:17.:53:20.

he is contradicting because on the one hand he says it was not back it

:53:21.:53:26.

was his decision to go. On the other hand, there was a senior DUP who

:53:27.:53:30.

wanted him to go, he openly admits that was the case. He seems to be

:53:31.:53:33.

trying to have it both ways. I spoke to six DUP members at very various

:53:34.:53:40.

members of the party, rank and file and senior figures. Three weeks ago

:53:41.:53:43.

they were saying either he goes by the end of the year or we have to

:53:44.:53:46.

move against him. That is unchallengeable because that is what

:53:47.:53:49.

those people were saying at that point. We will hear more from you at

:53:50.:53:52.

the moment. For now, thank you. Ukip also held

:53:53.:53:55.

its conference this weekend. At the gathering in Carrickfergus,

:53:56.:53:57.

members heard attacks on the European Union, immigration

:53:58.:53:59.

policy and the Stormont Executive. There was also confirmation

:54:00.:54:01.

of most of the candidates the party intends to run

:54:02.:54:03.

in next year's Assembly election. But so far, its leader here,

:54:04.:54:06.

David McNarry, isn't among them. Our Political Correspondent,

:54:07.:54:09.

Gareth Gordon, reports. Carrickfergus's Norman built castle

:54:10.:54:19.

is a reminder that invaders from Europe are nothing new. Perhaps

:54:20.:54:23.

fitting then that the town was chosen by Ukip for its conference in

:54:24.:54:29.

Northern Ireland. So far the party's mix of anti-EU sentiment and

:54:30.:54:33.

heavy scepticism about the Stormont performance has had mixed results.

:54:34.:54:37.

Pour in the last General Election but decent in the preceding European

:54:38.:54:43.

poll. 24,000 people voted for the party's then chair Henry Reilly

:54:44.:54:47.

except he has now gone to the TUV after being expelled. Still, that

:54:48.:54:51.

didn't seem to dampen the spirits of members who heard a familiar message

:54:52.:54:56.

from some of its three remaining councillors. We are a national

:54:57.:54:59.

unionist party. Not just with a future on the British mainland but

:55:00.:55:04.

also here in our six counties, we country. In the Assembly elections,

:55:05.:55:09.

Ukip will upset many unionist parties and will take many of

:55:10.:55:13.

voters. Let's continue to have a publicly funded NHS but the United

:55:14.:55:19.

Kingdom citizens. The party leader was critical of this week's deal to

:55:20.:55:24.

save the Stormont institutions and in particular, the DUP. We have

:55:25.:55:32.

returned to the days of no guns, no government, and Kenya who coined

:55:33.:55:39.

phrase? It was that pathetic party behind the no guns, no government,

:55:40.:55:43.

that has turned itself upside down. Mr McNarry says he is targeting six

:55:44.:55:48.

seats in next year 's's Assembly election but after naming a

:55:49.:55:53.

different candidate to himself in the Strangford constituency. Stephen

:55:54.:56:00.

Crosby, you better hold it. He is standing down. -- is he standing

:56:01.:56:06.

down? It's not entirely clear. There are four or five vacancies and they

:56:07.:56:10.

will be filled within the next few weeks and my name, like other names,

:56:11.:56:15.

it is in for those vacancies. So you will be standing? My name is in for

:56:16.:56:19.

those seats with those vacancies, of course. I am not quite sure, you

:56:20.:56:23.

could have announced your name today. I haven't been selected.

:56:24.:56:28.

Someone else has been selected. Somebody else has been selected.

:56:29.:56:33.

What is the first? Ukip is certainly not shy about topping up its

:56:34.:56:36.

electoral prospects in Northern Ireland but with uncertainty even

:56:37.:56:41.

over the future of its single MLA, it has got a lot of work to do if it

:56:42.:56:43.

is going to achieve them. Gareth Gordon reporting

:56:44.:56:44.

from Carrickfergus. Now, after ten weeks of negotiation,

:56:45.:56:47.

the Fresh Start agreement has been In it is a roadmap for dealing with

:56:48.:56:50.

paramilitarism and welfare changes, but there's continuing deadlock

:56:51.:56:54.

over legacy issues. The Victims Forum is demanding

:56:55.:56:56.

an apology and an urgent meeting with the

:56:57.:56:58.

Prime Minister and the Taoiseach. Allison, how big an issue do you

:56:59.:57:10.

think it is that victims are now being so vocal about their dissident

:57:11.:57:14.

satisfaction? I think it is huge. Five rounds of talks, unable to come

:57:15.:57:18.

up with a solution for the victims. They were given false hope from the

:57:19.:57:21.

Stormont House Agreement that there were a series of the mechanisms that

:57:22.:57:25.

would have dealt with it. That's why it fell apart and were unable to or

:57:26.:57:30.

the British government, they inserted a clause saying that some

:57:31.:57:33.

information would have to be redacted for security issues. It is

:57:34.:57:36.

now at a point that the victims issue has to be taken out of local

:57:37.:57:40.

hands. They'll have to bring some international who has experience of

:57:41.:57:43.

dealing with these things to bring a solution. It has been handed to the

:57:44.:57:47.

the Chief Constable and he should not be policing the past because it

:57:48.:57:51.

politicises his role. We will never have progress of policing if he is

:57:52.:57:55.

obviously still having to go back and have this piecemeal look at the

:57:56.:58:00.

past. Sam, do you feel that legacy could unravel beef Fresh Start deal,

:58:01.:58:07.

-- just as it brought down the Stormont House Agreement. I am not

:58:08.:58:12.

sure that... There are several issues, partly the issue of IRA

:58:13.:58:16.

decommissioning which was extraordinary by complete absence

:58:17.:58:19.

from the speech when you think about what David Trimble -- what they said

:58:20.:58:26.

about David Trimble. In terms of the legacy stuff, Peter Robinson

:58:27.:58:29.

proposed this week that the stuff that they could agree it should be

:58:30.:58:32.

published. I think that is probably quite sensible. At this point we are

:58:33.:58:36.

discussing at without knowing what was in there. The victims themselves

:58:37.:58:39.

would probably want to see that more than anyone. Allison, Thursday

:58:40.:58:45.

night, John O'Dowd admitted that mitigations for welfare benefit

:58:46.:58:47.

recipients are not as good in this deal as they were in the previous

:58:48.:58:51.

deal. There is a separate issue about tax credits but sticking with

:58:52.:58:56.

welfare, how does that square with Sinn Fein's commitment. Why did Sinn

:58:57.:59:02.

Fein is signed off this deal? It was obviously a 2-party deal to get us

:59:03.:59:06.

through the next election but you can see the finer detail, the

:59:07.:59:09.

Stormont has agreement was a better deal for current recipients. I think

:59:10.:59:16.

Sinn Fein activists have been noticeably quiet with this issue.

:59:17.:59:21.

Whether they were outflanked or outmanoeuvred, I don't know but when

:59:22.:59:23.

you break it down they have said there is extra money but it is

:59:24.:59:26.

actually tax credit money it is a worse deal by it if you something

:59:27.:59:31.

million for actual benefit claimants. The logic of this is that

:59:32.:59:35.

Sinn Fein is moving significantly away from it stands as an

:59:36.:59:38.

anti-austerity party. As the economy picks up in the south, they are

:59:39.:59:41.

trying to adopt a new tack here. Thank you.

:59:42.:59:43.

Let's just pause for a moment to take a look back

:59:44.:59:45.

at a very busy week in politics in Sixty Seconds - with Gareth Gordon.

:59:46.:59:52.

Christmas came early. A deal to save Stormont. I believe this is a good

:59:53.:59:58.

day for Northern Ireland and it marks a Fresh Start for Northern

:59:59.:00:03.

Ireland's institutions. To ensure that this new opportunity, this

:00:04.:00:09.

Fresh Start, is fully embraced. But what wasn't fully embraced was

:00:10.:00:12.

allowing Westminster to deal with welfare. How dare anybody reduce

:00:13.:00:19.

this chamber to a post box? One job done, it was time to shed another.

:00:20.:00:23.

Peter Robinson announced he was quitting. The further you get up

:00:24.:00:30.

that greasy pole, the more people are looking to you down. And in the

:00:31.:00:40.

midst of all this, MLAs remembered the dead of Paris. My daughter was

:00:41.:00:46.

down the street from the first restaurant attack and I want to

:00:47.:00:51.

thank those who give her and her group shelter.

:00:52.:00:54.

Hard to believe you could squeeze so much into just one week.

:00:55.:00:56.

Let's take a brief look ahead with Allison and Sam.

:00:57.:01:02.

Sam, the Prime Minister will set out a copper is of strategy on air

:01:03.:01:10.

against IS. -- comprehensive. The DUP is looking at that and

:01:11.:01:13.

indicating that it will vote with the Government. Gavin Robinson, and

:01:14.:01:18.

Nigel Dodds this morning, both indicated that the DUP has

:01:19.:01:21.

effectively dropped its past opposition to air strikes. It is not

:01:22.:01:25.

entirely convinced but sought to meet leaning towards supporting the

:01:26.:01:28.

Government if they have a credible plan. Allison. They are not entirely

:01:29.:01:33.

convinced but I'm pretty sure they will vote in favour of it. The

:01:34.:01:37.

landscape has changed after the Paris attacks but also we know the

:01:38.:01:40.

DUP did very well in the Fresh Start deal so it is payback time for the

:01:41.:01:46.

British government. Sam, a brief look ahead to Wednesday and they

:01:47.:01:49.

come preventing spending review and the Autumn Statement. On past form,

:01:50.:01:55.

George Osborne has talked of the four events and has delivered so

:01:56.:02:00.

perhaps it won't be as bad as people thinking. It is Stormont's major

:02:01.:02:05.

source of funding. I think it is not going to be as bad as previously

:02:06.:02:10.

thought. It is under pressure from his

:02:11.:02:14.

need to come up bicycles and onto -- people need to get on to bikes and

:02:15.:02:21.

of polluting cars. Can Jeremy Corbyn rein

:02:22.:02:24.

in his discontented MPs? Helen, let's start with the spending

:02:25.:02:26.

his spending cuts? Helen, let's start with the spending

:02:27.:02:42.

review. It is quite clear that deficit reduction is not getting any

:02:43.:02:46.

easier, even though the economy has been growing for some time. I

:02:47.:02:50.

thought it was interesting that even Nigel Lawson said the Chancellor may

:02:51.:02:54.

have to look if he wants to continue reducing the deficit, not just at

:02:55.:03:07.

spending cuts but tax rises. That is about having a surplus by 2020. It

:03:08.:03:11.

gives them very little room for manoeuvre. The big problem for the

:03:12.:03:15.

Tories in this Parliament, last parliament you had heavy cuts for

:03:16.:03:21.

councils which fell a lot on adult social care. A small number of

:03:22.:03:24.

people which hugely affected by that. The next round of cuts will

:03:25.:03:29.

mean a much larger group of people are affected. That is much harder to

:03:30.:03:35.

get past the public. It gets in a lot of money and a big revenue from

:03:36.:03:41.

the Government. Is that possible? There is logic to it, given to what

:03:42.:03:48.

has happened with oil prices. The logic is, low oil prices and the

:03:49.:03:52.

political logic will be, the gunmen will say, they have done enough on

:03:53.:03:57.

making fuel cheaper tax wise in recent years. They now have

:03:58.:04:02.

political room for manoeuvre on that issue. George Osborne is now boxed

:04:03.:04:06.

in, not just by the decision to aim for a surplus and the decision to

:04:07.:04:10.

aim for troubling pounds in welfare cuts, but also by the decision

:04:11.:04:14.

alluded to by Nigel Lawson to protect entire departments of

:04:15.:04:19.

spending, health service and foreign aid. Anything to do with people over

:04:20.:04:28.

65. That leaves you with one option, to go to departments which have

:04:29.:04:32.

already made absolutely swingeing cuts over the last two years and ask

:04:33.:04:36.

for more. There is a perverse incentive that when the Treasury

:04:37.:04:40.

knows that for example local government or business is able to

:04:41.:04:44.

make very deep cuts, as they have done, those departments are awarded

:04:45.:04:49.

by being asked more cuts. There is a perverse incentive almost to hold

:04:50.:04:54.

out. George Osborne has a thoroughly consistent record. He will duff up

:04:55.:05:00.

the Labour Party and then implement the fiscal deficit reduction plan.

:05:01.:05:06.

In the last parliament he halved the overall fiscal deficit. In this

:05:07.:05:10.

Parliament he went into the election saying, I will run a 10 million

:05:11.:05:14.

surplus two years before the general election. He has all it is a laid

:05:15.:05:18.

back by one year. He has announced today the 10 billion has pretty much

:05:19.:05:23.

gone. He may run a surplus but it may be ?10 rather than 10 billion!

:05:24.:05:28.

That will be much closer to the Ed Balls plan. As Helen was saying, he

:05:29.:05:32.

has got himself into this mess because he set a trap for Ed Balls.

:05:33.:05:39.

There is a danger of just public weariness. I think the Treasury is

:05:40.:05:44.

worried about this. The mood of the public. We are into our sixth year

:05:45.:05:50.

and there is still 80 million to go. The public in Greece just got fed

:05:51.:05:57.

up. In Portugal a few weeks ago, the Portuguese economy was recovering

:05:58.:06:04.

well but the public got fed up. In the election campaign we heard about

:06:05.:06:09.

the long-term economic plan. If you asked people what that was, there

:06:10.:06:14.

are a few new. Most people assume that things were on the upside. They

:06:15.:06:19.

did not realise the cuts in the second term would be deeper. The

:06:20.:06:25.

comprehensive spending review will be live on BBC Two. It will be a

:06:26.:06:32.

political event. Let's move on to the Labour Party. We have the vote

:06:33.:06:40.

on Trident. SNP are putting it down and it is meant to be a trap for

:06:41.:06:45.

Labour. The leader it is against it but the party is in favour of it

:06:46.:06:54.

credible to say, just abstain? I think they will get away with it. It

:06:55.:07:00.

was set at conference but it cannot come onto the conference floor for

:07:01.:07:03.

three years. The Labour leader is completely opposed to it. He has

:07:04.:07:09.

said there is no compromise on it. He has had to make a series of

:07:10.:07:17.

compromises. No matter what Mr Corbyn and John McDonnell wants,

:07:18.:07:20.

they cannot change it for another three years? What happened at the

:07:21.:07:28.

Labour conference is they attempted to have it debated but they failed.

:07:29.:07:34.

It is up to the National policy Forum. This review is being chaired

:07:35.:07:39.

by Maria Eagle and Ken Livingstone for that they are looking at it and

:07:40.:07:43.

it will go to the National policy Forum to decide. That is a way of

:07:44.:07:47.

overruling what the existing rules are full you have a strange

:07:48.:07:52.

situation where Jeremy Corbyn wants to promote grassroots

:07:53.:07:55.

decision-making on things he agrees with. Not so much in this case. The

:07:56.:08:00.

point Caroline Flint was making, you cannot keep having free vote on such

:08:01.:08:06.

massive issues as to whether this country should have nuclear

:08:07.:08:10.

deterrent and whether we should extend the battle against Islamic

:08:11.:08:14.

State to Syria. You cannot have a huge disparity between leader and

:08:15.:08:18.

Parliamentary party on existential issues. What it leads to is the

:08:19.:08:23.

leader having to use flirted, surreptitiously methods to get his

:08:24.:08:27.

own way and negotiate around party policy. The ultimate example this

:08:28.:08:31.

week with getting Ken Livingstone, the famous defence expert, to have

:08:32.:08:41.

the defence review. Briefly, because I want to move on. If you get 60% of

:08:42.:08:48.

the vote in the leadership election, it is that at the fair to put your

:08:49.:08:51.

views forward. They need to make a decision by the time there is a big

:08:52.:08:56.

vote on Trident next year. The difficulties they hear and now. And

:08:57.:09:00.

that is Syria. The here and now is having an effect. We had a policy

:09:01.:09:07.

morning. One of the questions was about national-security. -- a poll

:09:08.:09:13.

this morning. Who do you think would keep you and your family safe? 39%

:09:14.:09:22.

trusted David Cameron and only 17% voted for Jeremy Corbyn. The point I

:09:23.:09:26.

put to Caroline Flint, this is dangerous for Labour. They already

:09:27.:09:29.

have a problem with economic security. That is one reason they

:09:30.:09:35.

did not win. To not be trusted national-security as well, it means

:09:36.:09:40.

it is well nigh impossible to win an election. There was a seductive

:09:41.:09:46.

narrative about patria to them with Jeremy Corbyn not singing with Queen

:09:47.:09:55.

-- not seeing the Queen 's speech. I think particularly in the aftermath

:09:56.:09:58.

of Paris, what people were looking to see from leaders were looking to

:09:59.:10:02.

see from leaders in summary. That is a huge problem. The problem also

:10:03.:10:06.

comes with the fact these polls are very bad. At this stage, Ed Miliband

:10:07.:10:14.

was doing better and that was, even then, people were talking about

:10:15.:10:17.

whether it would bring him down. Debts have a look at the state of

:10:18.:10:22.

the parties with the poll. I'm told this is the biggest Tory lead over

:10:23.:10:25.

Labour since John Major took over from Margaret Thatcher, 15 points.

:10:26.:10:32.

There we have the Tories on 42 and Labour down to 27. The Labour vote

:10:33.:10:37.

came down a couple of points. Ukip are still doing pretty well, at

:10:38.:10:43.

15%. The Lib Dems are still flat-lining at 7%. The Scottish

:10:44.:10:49.

National 's get five. It means a lot more in Scotland. The Green party is

:10:50.:10:58.

down at 3% and going nowhere. At this stage of the process is it is

:10:59.:11:04.

not -- the process, it is not that important. Given all the problems we

:11:05.:11:09.

have had about tax credits and Tory difficulties, it is pretty

:11:10.:11:15.

disheartening. The last time the Labour Party scored 27% in a general

:11:16.:11:20.

election was under Baikal foot as leader. It has been a defining

:11:21.:11:24.

moment for Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party. -- under Michael Foot.

:11:25.:11:32.

You need to ensure the nation's finances are safe and

:11:33.:11:35.

national-security is safe. On the second one, is a nation secure in

:11:36.:11:39.

your hands? He appeared to be found wanting. You have a at a clown

:11:40.:11:49.

situation, what would you do? He equivocated and said, I would be an

:11:50.:11:52.

easy. -- a equivocated and said, I would be an

:11:53.:12:00.

finally set out the circumstances in which he would approve that type of

:12:01.:12:05.

response by which he would approve that type of

:12:06.:12:08.

The problem was his initial responses showed his instincts.

:12:09.:12:14.

Putting that in front of the British people, you will have a challenging

:12:15.:12:19.

time winning an election like that. The Parliamentary Labour Party has

:12:20.:12:22.

to be careful. They may not be in tune with the people in the country

:12:23.:12:26.

in the Labour Party who elected Mr Corbyn as leader. Although they are

:12:27.:12:30.

getting impatient, I would suggest they have to wait at least until May

:12:31.:12:38.

until the Scottish elections, the local government elections. They

:12:39.:12:42.

really cannot move before then, can they? They acknowledge he has a

:12:43.:12:46.

thumping great mandate from the election. A lot of those people have

:12:47.:12:52.

actually converted to being full party members. He still has a huge

:12:53.:12:58.

backing at grassroots level. The Mint is thriving and drawing in huge

:12:59.:13:05.

crowds of people. -- momentum is thriving. Even a later post was then

:13:06.:13:10.

they could come third in Scotland. They were saying Jeremy Corbyn is

:13:11.:13:16.

the 1 guy who could bring back the votes that were lost to SNP in

:13:17.:13:20.

recent years. By one warning to the Labour Party is, if you think 27% is

:13:21.:13:27.

low, wait until the public starts to focus on the next election? 27% is

:13:28.:13:35.

not the floor for Labour. We shall see. That is all for today.

:13:36.:13:38.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC2 at noon tomorrow.

:13:39.:13:41.

And we'll be back again next weekend at the same time.

:13:42.:13:46.

We will be back to disentangle the spending review next Sunday at the

:13:47.:13:50.

same time. Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:51.:13:53.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:54.:13:59.

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

Andrew has an interview with Labour's former Europe minister Caroline Flint and a preview of the comprehensive spending review with former chancellor Nigel Lawson.

On the political panel are Janan Ganesh from The Financial Times, New Statesman's Helen Lewis and Nick Watt of The Guardian.


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