29/11/2015 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


29/11/2015

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The Government continues its push for the UK to join air-strikes

:00:36.:00:41.

Is it winning the argument and does it have the votes in Parliament?

:00:42.:00:48.

We'll hear from former Tory defence secretary Liam Fox, and Respect

:00:49.:00:52.

Jeremy Corbyn is struggling to get his way over Syria, as he tries to

:00:53.:00:59.

persuade his Shadow Cabinet to back his opposition to bombing.

:01:00.:01:01.

We'll hear from Shadow Justice Secretary, Charlie Falconer.

:01:02.:01:05.

And the former Conservative chairman Grant Shapps resigns

:01:06.:01:07.

from the Government over allegations he failed to act on bullying claims

:01:08.:01:12.

In London, the Chancellor spared the really the end of the story?

:01:13.:01:25.

In London, the Chancellor spared the Metropolitan Police but his spending

:01:26.:01:27.

In London, the Chancellor spared the decisions will have consequences for

:01:28.:01:28.

transport, housing and councils. So, yesterday,

:01:29.:01:38.

former Conservative Party chairman Grant Shapps resigned from

:01:39.:01:39.

the Government over allegations he failed to act on claims of bullying

:01:40.:01:43.

in the youth wing of the party. It's a complicated story,

:01:44.:01:47.

as Giles Dilnot explains. Grant Shapps, former co-chair

:01:48.:01:50.

of the Conservative Party and now a former minister, must wish

:01:51.:01:56.

as his senior aide Paul Abbot Clarke once tipped for the top

:01:57.:02:02.

by Tatler magazine unsuccessfully As a result of his behaviour

:02:03.:02:21.

during that campaign, about which complaints were made, he

:02:22.:02:25.

was taken off the candidates list. A girlfriend at the time declaring

:02:26.:02:28.

he was "unfit to be an MP". In early 2014,

:02:29.:02:35.

Mr Clarke approached the Conservatives and Grant Shapps

:02:36.:02:37.

in particular with an idea. It was simple, bus loads of young

:02:38.:02:39.

Tory activists to marginal seats during the 2015 general election

:02:40.:02:46.

campaign to doorstep constituents. In the face of of unshifting polls,

:02:47.:02:48.

the idea appealed to Conservative Central Headquarters but they

:02:49.:02:55.

wanted to have some control over it. Grant Shapps decided not only to

:02:56.:02:59.

back the idea, but help pay for it, and put Clarke in charge

:03:00.:03:02.

of the operation. never met are you going to be a part

:03:03.:03:07.

of this? -- are you going to be? Roadtrip 2015,

:03:08.:03:17.

as the plan was called, had another motive for Clarke, to see him back

:03:18.:03:19.

on the Conservative candidate list and perhaps he would have and this

:03:20.:03:22.

story ended if not for the apparent suicide in mid-September

:03:23.:03:25.

of a young activist called Elliot Johnson, who left a note, naming

:03:26.:03:27.

Mark Clarke as someone who'd been bullying him and a secret recording

:03:28.:03:30.

of Clarke challenging him in a pub. In the wake of Elliot Johnson's

:03:31.:03:33.

death, lurid allegations emerged about Clarke, alleging sexual

:03:34.:03:36.

misconduct, drugs, intimidation, blackmail and bullying connected to

:03:37.:03:37.

Roadtrip, all denied by Mark Clarke. But August e-mail exchanges

:03:38.:03:48.

between Mr Clarke and Mr Shapps' aide Paul Abbot show Mr Abbott was

:03:49.:03:51.

aware of complaints Nothing was done and since Mr Shapps

:03:52.:03:53.

gave Clarke an official Party role he has now resigned saying

:03:54.:04:01.

"the buck stops with me". The Prime Minister says a full

:04:02.:04:03.

internal investigation is under way. Elliot Johnson's father wants an

:04:04.:04:08.

independent external investigation. The most serious allegations

:04:09.:04:13.

about Clarke were made after Grant Shapps had been moved to

:04:14.:04:15.

a junior ministerial position and Lord Feldman, David Cameron's

:04:16.:04:21.

chief fundraiser and close friend, He says the party cannot find

:04:22.:04:24.

nor was aware of any written If, by falling on his sword,

:04:25.:04:30.

Mr Shapps hoped to stop the scandal spreading,

:04:31.:04:36.

he may actually only have become The Sunday Politics panel is here.

:04:37.:04:55.

Nick, here is the case for Shapps. He has been made a scapegoat. This

:04:56.:05:01.

is not the end of the story. I think it is not the end of the story.

:05:02.:05:06.

Grant Shapps did sign up Mark Clark to do this. I think it is getting

:05:07.:05:10.

awfully close to the door of Andrew Feldman. They went -- he went to

:05:11.:05:20.

college with the Prime Minister and organised some balls. They go back a

:05:21.:05:26.

long way. The road trip was run out of Conservative campaign

:05:27.:05:28.

headquarters in the run-up to the general election. Most significantly

:05:29.:05:32.

for Andrew Feldman, he signed the checks to allow the road trip to

:05:33.:05:38.

take place. We're not talking small cheques, we are talking many

:05:39.:05:41.

hundreds of thousands of pounds. Grant Shapps was in charge of it on

:05:42.:05:47.

a day-to-day basis but Andrew Feldman and his sister helped the

:05:48.:05:59.

running of the road trip. What it does is put the attention onto some

:06:00.:06:02.

of the attention onto summary the attention would be, what did Andrew

:06:03.:06:07.

Feldman do? What did he know and when and what did he do? What we

:06:08.:06:14.

have to remember is Baroness Warsi, who was co-chairman, kicked this guy

:06:15.:06:20.

out of the party. Feldman was Chairman Ben and Shapps brought him

:06:21.:06:25.

back. Feldman was co-chairman and Feldman is still the chairman now.

:06:26.:06:28.

In terms of the party, what some people were saying to me yesterday,

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actually, it cannot be seen that Cameron is protecting Lord Fellman

:06:34.:06:42.

-- Feldman because he is his friend. He has got questions to answer. I

:06:43.:06:47.

also think that if people who are in the party feel these questions are

:06:48.:06:52.

not being answered, and it is not an open process, loads more leaks will

:06:53.:06:57.

come out and it will get messier and messier and messier. It is a rum do,

:06:58.:07:04.

what was going on inside the Tory Party in its youth wing. Multiple

:07:05.:07:10.

allegations of bullying and sexual harassment. Culminating in this

:07:11.:07:13.

young man taking his life on a railway line. It is an appalling

:07:14.:07:20.

thing. There is a history of unusual behaviour amongst Conservative

:07:21.:07:23.

students going back to the 1980s when Norman Tebbit closed down the

:07:24.:07:26.

Confederation of Conservative students. It is the most extreme

:07:27.:07:35.

incident I have ever encountered. This is about personal behaviour.

:07:36.:07:40.

The parents of Elliott Johnson raised an important question of

:07:41.:07:44.

chronology. Grant Shapps stop being co-chairman in May. Some of the

:07:45.:07:48.

allegations against Mark Clark, some of the complaints surfaced as

:07:49.:07:58.

recently as August. There is a deeper structural problem, which is

:07:59.:08:02.

the Conservative Party does not have activists. They have to find them

:08:03.:08:08.

where they can get them. Or, when summary has a reputation as bad as

:08:09.:08:12.

Mark Clark, they end up going along with them because options are so

:08:13.:08:17.

limited. It will not be the end of the story.

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David Cameron is expected to ask MPs to approve UK air strikes

:08:20.:08:22.

The Government thinks it now has enough support to risk a vote

:08:23.:08:26.

in the Commons, even though the Labour Party is still unclear.

:08:27.:08:29.

And the PM will almost certainly need Labour votes to get his way.

:08:30.:08:32.

Mr Corbyn is still trying to rally his Shadow Cabinet and Labour MPs

:08:33.:08:35.

He told Andrew Marr they should recognise his direct mandate

:08:36.:08:38.

And so what I've done is what I said I would always do,

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I would try to democratise the way the party does things.

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Yes, I have sent an e-mail to party members, and actually,

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70,000 have already replied with their views.

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I don't know what all the views are, obviously, I haven't read them all,

:08:51.:08:54.

Surely we must recognise that in a democracy, the Labour Party has

:08:55.:09:02.

a very large membership, nearly 400,000 members, they have a right

:09:03.:09:05.

to express their point of view and MPs have to listen to it and have to

:09:06.:09:09.

try and understand what's going on in the minds

:09:10.:09:11.

I've been joined by Charlie Falconer, Jeremy Corbyn's

:09:12.:09:22.

Are you minded to support government on the subject of Syrian air

:09:23.:09:34.

strikes? I am. Then need to be assurances, given to the House of

:09:35.:09:38.

Commons but I am minded to support air strikes. The reason I am, I

:09:39.:09:44.

think Isil poses a threat to the region and also Europe, including

:09:45.:09:48.

the United Kingdom. I believe air strikes over Iraq and Syria are

:09:49.:09:53.

having an effect on reducing that risk. I think it is wrong that we

:09:54.:09:58.

are participating in Syria when what is going on is we are trying to

:09:59.:10:02.

defend the United Kingdom. I believe the only long-term solution is there

:10:03.:10:06.

needs to be a solution to the Syrian civil war and the bombing of cracker

:10:07.:10:11.

will not significantly contribute to that. -- Raqqa. I believe we do not

:10:12.:10:22.

have a choice. The likelihood is that the Shadow Cabinet will agree a

:10:23.:10:28.

collective position in this matter. There are honourably held collective

:10:29.:10:32.

views. The Shadow Cabinet on Thursday, they were appropriately

:10:33.:10:38.

discussing. Everybody was conscious of the fact we have to reach a

:10:39.:10:42.

conclusion in national interests. With an issue like this where there

:10:43.:10:47.

is agreement on the factual material, international law, the

:10:48.:10:56.

final judgment, there is such a difficult decision to be made, it is

:10:57.:11:00.

not surprising that our disagreements in the Shadow Cabinet.

:11:01.:11:03.

It is unlikely that tomorrow you will be able to agree a collective

:11:04.:11:08.

line. I think that is right. It is unlikely we'll be able to agree a

:11:09.:11:16.

yes or no answer to the question the Government is about to post. If it

:11:17.:11:22.

does not and there is a free vote for this among Labour MPs, it does

:11:23.:11:31.

make it certain that Mr Cameron will win by a convincing majority. I do

:11:32.:11:37.

not know the position. I think everyone is weighing up the merits

:11:38.:11:42.

of the argument. The right thing to do is for mothers of the

:11:43.:11:44.

Parliamentary Labour Party members of the Shadow Cabinet to consider

:11:45.:11:47.

all the arguments and reach a conclusion as to what they think is

:11:48.:11:53.

in the national interest. It is clear that enough Labour MPs will

:11:54.:11:57.

abstain or side with the Government to give Mr Cameron a majority, even

:11:58.:12:03.

if that are some Tory defectors. If the position where it was whipped

:12:04.:12:07.

against by the Labour Party, that with very significantly reduce the

:12:08.:12:11.

chances if it were a free vote. I do not know what the final figures

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would be. Your figures sound right. Should there be a free vote? What is

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the alternative given the position you are into a free vote? My own

:12:21.:12:25.

view is I do not think this very important issue should be allowed to

:12:26.:12:31.

be a situation that forces resignations on people. I think the

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right course is, if the Shadow Cabinet cannot come to a collective

:12:36.:12:39.

view, and I accept that maybe unlikely, probably the best course

:12:40.:12:44.

is a free vote. That is ultimately for the leadership to decide. For an

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opposition which aspires to government when you're not a

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debating society. You are the opposition, the alternative

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government. What would voters think if you cannot agree a collective

:12:58.:13:01.

position on something as important as war? What the Government be

:13:02.:13:13.

seeing is a legitimate debate. The public is like the Parliamentary

:13:14.:13:15.

Labour Party and like the saddo Cabinet, of different views. You

:13:16.:13:19.

need to come to a collective view. We need to know your view on this.

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The differences with this is I do not think it will be possible. I do

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not think that is surprising. That reflects the debate that is going on

:13:31.:13:33.

in the country. The debate going on in the country is going on within

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the Labour Party. If Mr Corbyn was to attempt, and he said this morning

:13:40.:13:44.

it is his decision to whip or not. If there were a decision to whip

:13:45.:13:48.

Labour members to vote against bombing, would that be a resignation

:13:49.:13:54.

matter for you? I do not want to comment on that. I very much hope

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any sort of resignations will be avoided. I think the position will

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be we will have a further discussion on Monday and a collective you will

:14:04.:14:06.

be reached as to how we go forward in relation to the progress. One

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Labour MP told us that Mr Corbyn's and of this vote seems to him like a

:14:13.:14:16.

deliberate search for a fight and he is very disappointed. I do not

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agree. The key thing about what is happening now is not who sent a

:14:23.:14:26.

letter when. The key thing which the public want us to debate is the

:14:27.:14:31.

question itself. Should we support air strikes or not? I think the

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important thing about this week will not be who said what to whom but

:14:36.:14:40.

will be where you stood on the issue. It is one of those issues

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where the judgment about what was right and what was wrong will not

:14:46.:14:50.

come on the basis of the politics of these few days. It will come on what

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happens going forward. What was the right decision? Let me ask you this.

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We do not have much time. Because you are a lawyer and an expert on

:15:03.:15:08.

the Labour Party, if Labour MPs sought to unseat Mr Corbyn, and

:15:09.:15:12.

there is some wild talk around on that, witty automatically be on the

:15:13.:15:18.

ballot paper of a new leadership election? I have not addressed that.

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It is not a moment to talk about any sort of leadership challenge. Jeremy

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Corbyn is leader. He was elected two months ago with a huge mandate. That

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is the position within the Labour Party and that is where we have to

:15:33.:15:36.

address it. It can hardly be a stable position to have a Labour

:15:37.:15:40.

leader, in such a key issue has bombing in Syria, at odds with a

:15:41.:15:45.

huge chunk of his Shadow Cabinet rest room at that position is

:15:46.:15:51.

unsustainable over the period. It was absolutely clear when Jeremy was

:15:52.:15:55.

elected, there were significant disagreements between Jeremy and

:15:56.:15:58.

others on policy. What is happening is the Labour Party is holding

:15:59.:16:00.

together. So far. So, once again a British government

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is gearing up extend military action It's a well-trod road

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and the outcome has not always been predictable, or pleasant,

:16:13.:16:17.

which is why so many are hesitant. Ellie Price has been looking

:16:18.:16:19.

at the Prime Minister's case for action, and what role the UK

:16:20.:16:22.

military might play. That bomb in Paris,

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that could have been London. If they had their way,

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it would be London. I can't stand here

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and say we're safe I can't stand here either

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and say we will remove the threat from the action we take, but do I

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stand here with advice behind me that taking action will degrade

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and reduce that threat over time? Absolutely,

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and I've examined my conscience David Cameron says he no longer

:16:46.:16:47.

wants to outsource this sort Britain is currently involved in air

:16:48.:16:54.

strikes against so-called Islamic State, but only in Iraq, shown here

:16:55.:16:59.

in the bottom half of this shot. The border, for British forces

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at least, is crucial. IS, Isis, Daesh - whatever you want

:17:05.:17:09.

to call it - control or is free to operate in swathes of territory

:17:10.:17:14.

in Iraq and Syria. Its so-called caliphate stretches

:17:15.:17:19.

from Aleppo in Syria to The lines on the map are relatively

:17:20.:17:21.

fluid, it recently lost control That was down to Kurdish forces with

:17:22.:17:28.

the help of US-led air strikes. Currently Australia,

:17:29.:17:35.

Canada and France are also flying bombing missions over both

:17:36.:17:37.

countries, targeting IS. According to the latest figures

:17:38.:17:43.

released on Friday, the US and its allies operating

:17:44.:17:46.

under the banner of Operation Inherent Resolve have conducted more

:17:47.:17:49.

than 8,500 air strikes against Islamic State targets since the

:17:50.:17:53.

start of the campaign last year. That's 5,580 air strikes in Iraq

:17:54.:17:59.

and 2,925 in Syria. More than 16,000 targets have been

:18:00.:18:05.

damaged or destroyed, including more than 4,500 buildings,

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nearly 5,000 fighting positions, and The vast majority have come from US

:18:09.:18:14.

aircraft, but the RAF has run 376 They've been launched

:18:15.:18:21.

from this base in Cyprus, where The base has also been used to

:18:22.:18:28.

carry out refuelling and The perception out there is

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the question as to whether or not the UK should be involved

:18:35.:18:40.

in the campaign in Syria or not. The reality is we are involved in

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that campaign but in an inconsistent Other countries, our allies,

:18:44.:18:47.

the Americans and French in particular, just don't quite

:18:48.:19:02.

understand where we are up to. The PM insists

:19:03.:19:05.

the RAF can provide specific skills that coalition partners are keen to

:19:06.:19:07.

make the most of. The ability to launch highly

:19:08.:19:09.

accurate Brimstone missiles. We are very good

:19:10.:19:11.

at not killing people collaterally, the UK, so in that sense I think us

:19:12.:19:14.

moving into Syria is good. The sad thing is that no matter how

:19:15.:19:17.

good you are, there will be innocent people killed but they are dying

:19:18.:19:21.

anyway because of Isil, and it's coming to the stage where you have

:19:22.:19:26.

to move forward and do things, even though that sort of thing happens,

:19:27.:19:29.

that cannot be Of course Russia is also involved

:19:30.:19:31.

in air strikes in Syria, but its support of President Assad's

:19:32.:19:36.

regime puts it at odds with The scale of these tensions

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demonstrated when Turkey, which vehemently opposes Assad, shot

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down a Russian plane last week. Most experts agree that air strikes

:19:47.:19:52.

alone will not destroy the common enemy of IS, that ground forces will

:19:53.:19:55.

be needed, but agreeing on exactly who those forces would be, could

:19:56.:20:00.

prove the biggest obstacle to peace. We are joined now by George

:20:01.:20:26.

Galloway. What should be done to thwart Islamic State, if not British

:20:27.:20:30.

bombing, what should be done to hit it in its heartland? Most of these

:20:31.:20:34.

terrorist attacks were carried out by people living in the countries in

:20:35.:20:39.

which they operated, Tunisia, France, Belgium and so on so you

:20:40.:20:45.

will not physically stop people bombing Raqqa turning up on the

:20:46.:20:52.

streets of Paris. But the planning involved Islamic State. There's not

:20:53.:20:59.

much logistics involved in taking arms into a nightclub and killing

:21:00.:21:05.

innocent people. There are many weapons in Europe, nobody is

:21:06.:21:09.

suggesting these weapons came from Syria. I don't want to dodge your

:21:10.:21:14.

question, I must strongly in favour of destroying Isis and Al-Qaeda as

:21:15.:21:19.

anybody else, more than the David Cameron government or they wouldn't

:21:20.:21:23.

be tolerating a situation where Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been

:21:24.:21:27.

supporting these people for years and until now are supporting them.

:21:28.:21:34.

We are steeped in blog so far but it is bloodier to go on, I promise you.

:21:35.:21:40.

What would you do? I would support the people fighting Isis and

:21:41.:21:50.

Al-Qaeda on the ground. The wide PG militia -- YPG militia. Give them

:21:51.:22:01.

weapons, every kind of support we can. It is a far better way than us

:22:02.:22:10.

joining in. Do you support Russian attacks on the anti-Assad forces in

:22:11.:22:19.

Syria? Yes, if they are coordinated with the Syrian government's army.

:22:20.:22:28.

So do you support British attacks on Islamic State forces in Iraq at

:22:29.:22:31.

their request of the Iraq government? I do, and if they were

:22:32.:22:37.

coordinated with the Government that make sense militarily, and if we

:22:38.:22:43.

coordinated our involvement with Russia and the Syrian government in

:22:44.:22:47.

Syria, I would support that too but it's because I'm pretty sure the

:22:48.:22:51.

British government's real game is regime change and because we have

:22:52.:22:56.

seen regime change before in Iraq and Libya and they ended so

:22:57.:23:00.

disastrously, I am against it. It's not because I'm a pacifist. There

:23:01.:23:07.

was a time when David Cameron's priority was to get rid of a sad's

:23:08.:23:14.

regime but isn't it clear that David Cameron has realised that defeating

:23:15.:23:19.

Islamic State is more important to Britain's national interest than

:23:20.:23:23.

getting rid of Mr Assad? If it were you probably wouldn't have me on

:23:24.:23:27.

because I would be supporting it, but I don't believe that. I pray his

:23:28.:23:32.

utterly farcical claim in the House this week that there were 70,000

:23:33.:23:37.

moderate rebels armed and ready to take over the land liberated by our

:23:38.:23:44.

bombardment. You say that is fantasy? If there were 700 I would

:23:45.:23:50.

be surprised. We will bomb territory which will then be taken by other

:23:51.:23:54.

so-called moderate fanatics, the ones as I said to you before that

:23:55.:24:03.

only cut off half your head. Should we regard the Russians and the Assad

:24:04.:24:07.

regime as our allies in the fight against Islamic State? We had that

:24:08.:24:17.

chance and that was incinerated by our ally on his attack on the

:24:18.:24:22.

Russian air force bombing these people, shot out of the sky

:24:23.:24:26.

provoking a crisis between east and west, between Nato and Russia, which

:24:27.:24:31.

was completely unnecessary and completely contrary to any

:24:32.:24:37.

legitimate war aims. Could it not still be put together? I wish it

:24:38.:24:45.

would, I suspect it won't. If we had time to discuss it I would operate

:24:46.:24:49.

this point. Turkey is the source of this problem, the Turkish border has

:24:50.:24:56.

been open to these people. They have been selling billions of dollars

:24:57.:25:01.

worth of oil. A lot of it is being stolen by Isil and sold in Turkey, I

:25:02.:25:08.

believe to relatives of President Erdogan, which is then sold onwards

:25:09.:25:13.

to neighbouring countries. You cannot be serious about fighting

:25:14.:25:18.

Isil while you're Nato ally is openly collaborating with them. You

:25:19.:25:23.

follow closely what is going on in the Labour Party at the moment, does

:25:24.:25:28.

Jeremy Corbyn have an alternative to a free vote when this comes up for a

:25:29.:25:34.

vote in the Commons? If I were him, I would whip the vote because his

:25:35.:25:51.

enemies in the ... Because our record on intervention is so bad,

:25:52.:25:55.

because the likelihood of it not going well is so high, I would dare

:25:56.:26:01.

these rebels to facilitate David Cameron's court. Is that the

:26:02.:26:09.

intention? It looks to me as if it is ripping itself apart. This is

:26:10.:26:14.

Ramsay MacDonald in reverse, the leader remaining loyal to the party

:26:15.:26:18.

and the MPs joining effectively and national government in terms of War

:26:19.:26:22.

and peace at least so if I were Jeremy Corbyn, I would whip this

:26:23.:26:28.

vote and let the Labour members pass verdict on those that troop into the

:26:29.:26:32.

lobby with Liam Fox and David Cameron because I am pretty sure

:26:33.:26:37.

this is not going to end well. Even at the expense of ripping apart the

:26:38.:26:43.

Shadow Cabinet too? You would be whipping the Shadow Cabinet where

:26:44.:26:49.

there seems to be a majority against Jeremy Corbyn's position. Some of

:26:50.:26:52.

them might surprise you with their fidelity to the party in those

:26:53.:26:57.

circumstances, others might go. They are supporting the elected leader in

:26:58.:27:02.

the way the rope supports a hanging man. What are the chances of Jeremy

:27:03.:27:08.

Corbyn following your advice? Probably not, I would think

:27:09.:27:12.

listening to John McDonald and Ken Livingstone they will go for a free

:27:13.:27:19.

vote, that will merely postponed... And give David Cameron his big

:27:20.:27:25.

majority. Yes. It seems to me time to face that up. Thank you very

:27:26.:27:40.

much. At this point we say goodbye to viewers in Scotland.

:27:41.:27:43.

Party divisions on the issue of air strikes

:27:44.:27:45.

Here's the Conservative MP and chairman of the Defence Select

:27:46.:27:49.

Committee, Julian Lewis, speaking in the Commons debate on Thursday.

:27:50.:27:51.

Air strikes alone will not be effective,

:27:52.:27:53.

they've got to be in coordination with credible ground forces.

:27:54.:27:56.

Now, the suggestion there are 70,000 non-Islamist, moderate, credible

:27:57.:27:58.

ground forces, I have to say, is a revelation to me and I suspect

:27:59.:28:01.

I've been joined by former Conservative Defence

:28:02.:28:05.

Two years ago you want to Britain to bomb the forces of President Assad,

:28:06.:28:19.

who is fighting Islamic State, now you want us to bomb Islamic State,

:28:20.:28:25.

which is fighting President Assad. Doesn't map flip-flop undermine your

:28:26.:28:29.

credibility? The original vote was very different, it was because Assad

:28:30.:28:34.

had used chemical weapons in breach of international law against his

:28:35.:28:39.

civilian population and the question then was worthy international

:28:40.:28:42.

community going to uphold that international law by making a

:28:43.:28:46.

punitive strike to teach the Assad regime and the rebels, who it was

:28:47.:28:50.

suspected might also have chemical weapons, that it would not be

:28:51.:28:57.

acceptable to use them. But it would have created more chaos in Syria and

:28:58.:29:02.

allowed Islamic State to benefit, to exploit that, as it had done

:29:03.:29:08.

previously. I'm not sure I'd buy that because if you have made a

:29:09.:29:11.

relatively small number of punitive strikes from some of the command and

:29:12.:29:16.

control of the regime to send a signal not to use chemical weapons

:29:17.:29:22.

again, that would have upheld the international community's position.

:29:23.:29:29.

Do you accept that extending British bombing into Syria now against

:29:30.:29:33.

Islamic State this time is not a military game changer, that it is --

:29:34.:29:39.

its military impact will be marginal at most? I think its military impact

:29:40.:29:45.

may be moderate at best, I accept that, however within that we have a

:29:46.:29:50.

number of weapons systems that can diminish the chance of civilian

:29:51.:29:53.

casualties, and I think that's important because it denies a

:29:54.:29:58.

propaganda weapon. Obviously anything that reduces civilian

:29:59.:30:03.

casualties is vital, but it won't change things very much on the

:30:04.:30:04.

ground militarily. The fact we have not been there has

:30:05.:30:16.

been an encouragement for other countries. For example, Saudi

:30:17.:30:21.

Arabia, UAE, Jordan, in recent months they have stopped

:30:22.:30:26.

contributing to the air campaigns. It makes it more difficult for us to

:30:27.:30:31.

persuade them to take part if we are not taking part. We have a

:30:32.:30:38.

militarily absurd policy of bombing in Iraq but not in Syria. After we

:30:39.:30:43.

have joined America, France, Bahrain, Syria, Russia, Australia,

:30:44.:30:51.

and recently Saudi Arabia and the UAE in bombing IS in Syria, what

:30:52.:30:58.

then? The question is, our ability to degrade military capability. One

:30:59.:31:02.

of the problems with sorties in Iraq is command and control is coming

:31:03.:31:06.

from Syria. That is where they are drawing strength from. The US has

:31:07.:31:12.

launched 2703 strikes in Syria alone and others have carried out 154. Why

:31:13.:31:19.

is that not doing the degrading? You have to carry out the number of

:31:20.:31:25.

attacks to provide that degradation. We need to continue that. The

:31:26.:31:30.

question you are alluding to is the right question. Even if you have

:31:31.:31:34.

degraded the ices capabilities, which is what we want, what is the

:31:35.:31:40.

next step? How do you hold any territory you may take from them?

:31:41.:31:46.

Part of the reply from the Prime Minister is there are 70,000

:31:47.:31:49.

moderate opposition fighters ready to become the ground force against

:31:50.:31:54.

Islamic State. Who is the leader and what do they want? You have a

:31:55.:32:02.

disparate grouping. Not 70,000 acting together. What the Prime

:32:03.:32:06.

Minister was saying from the joint intelligence committee, what they

:32:07.:32:10.

are saying was, there is a potential force of that size. The longer we

:32:11.:32:15.

wait to do great ices, the smaller that force is likely to be and the

:32:16.:32:20.

less its capabilities are likely to be. -- Isis. It is a fantasy to say

:32:21.:32:29.

there are 70,000 ground troops ready to come in and help on the ground if

:32:30.:32:35.

we extend the bombing to Syria. Let's assume the numbers are

:32:36.:32:40.

correct. To further questions we have to ask. Are they willing to

:32:41.:32:45.

operate together as a single force? The second is, do they have the

:32:46.:32:51.

capability to do so? Over the next few days, part of the debate will be

:32:52.:32:55.

around that. It will be around the fact you may have to supply some of

:32:56.:32:59.

those forces with mentoring and training to enable them to be able

:33:00.:33:06.

to be an effective force against Isis, which they have not

:33:07.:33:09.

necessarily been able to up until now. The wacky experience on that

:33:10.:33:19.

was disastrous. I would say, look at the other side. -- the wacky

:33:20.:33:27.

experience. Look at our ability to mental the Afghan army. Isn't it

:33:28.:33:34.

inevitable that everyone to make progress against Islamic State, in

:33:35.:33:38.

some way, President Assad and the Russians will have to become our

:33:39.:33:44.

allies? This is a very difficult pill to swallow for many people, who

:33:45.:33:51.

think the regime is particularly unpleasant. I would love to see a

:33:52.:33:54.

different regime in place that was not killing its civilian population

:33:55.:33:59.

and gay people in Syria chance to discover their own future. But, as

:34:00.:34:04.

we have done in previous military situations, sometimes we have to

:34:05.:34:07.

recognise these challenges have to be dealt with in series, not in

:34:08.:34:12.

parallel. That is what is very important about the statement by the

:34:13.:34:16.

Prime Minister. It is not an ices only strategy but Aaron -- Raqqa

:34:17.:34:28.

only strategy but and Raqqa first strategy. You are saying you are

:34:29.:34:39.

getting support of factions. The important thing is we bring together

:34:40.:34:44.

all those who want to deal with IS first. They are the threat to

:34:45.:34:50.

national. We need to grasp the size of that threat to national to. They

:34:51.:34:55.

hate us, Andrew. Not because of what we do because of who we are. They

:34:56.:35:03.

will never stop that. Why would we get help from non-IS forces on the

:35:04.:35:08.

ground if we are also seem to be on the side of the Russians? They are

:35:09.:35:14.

also a threat to those people inside Syria. It is in the interests of all

:35:15.:35:19.

parties concerned to deal with what is a highly ideological, dangerous,

:35:20.:35:26.

fascistic threat. They endanger regional security. We must not allow

:35:27.:35:30.

them to Hello and welcome to

:35:31.:35:38.

Sunday Politics. The Chancellor drops plans to axe

:35:39.:35:42.

tax credits, leaving Stormont with I'll be asking the Green MLA,

:35:43.:35:44.

Steven Agnew, and the chair of Citizens' Advice,

:35:45.:35:53.

Paul Callaghan, for their thoughts. With Paris about to host

:35:54.:35:57.

the latest climate change conference, how might any outcome

:35:58.:35:59.

affect this corner of the world? And with their thoughts throughout -

:36:00.:36:01.

Professor Deirdre Heenan and The Chancellor's decision not to

:36:02.:36:04.

scrap tax credits has left Stormont with a small windfall

:36:05.:36:14.

of 60 million a year. The cash had been set aside to help

:36:15.:36:18.

people hit by the proposed changes before

:36:19.:36:20.

the Chancellor's U-turn last week. With me is the Green Party MLA,

:36:21.:36:24.

Steven Agnew, and Paul Callaghan. You have tabled an urgent oral

:36:25.:36:39.

question at Stormont tomorrow. Is that to try and influence how the

:36:40.:36:47.

money is spent? Sinn Fein and the Alliance have given away powers

:36:48.:36:52.

legislatively. It is important that this is our money and that is how we

:36:53.:37:04.

spend it. I think transferring this money back into welfare, to

:37:05.:37:10.

essentially provide the public with what they promise would be a good

:37:11.:37:17.

way to spend it. There is dispute about the figure. 15 million per

:37:18.:37:20.

year that has been taken from another fund as part of this. There

:37:21.:37:30.

is a robbing the poor to pay the poor. The discretionary fund has

:37:31.:37:34.

been slashed disorders oche. Now it is not. It is not fine. People are

:37:35.:37:44.

going to be worse off in Northern Ireland. The way it was presented

:37:45.:37:47.

was not quite as good as what we saw.

:37:48.:37:53.

If you have the capacity to decide where the money would go where would

:37:54.:37:59.

you Channel it? Throughout the welfare reform process I said we

:38:00.:38:02.

need to protect people with disabilities and protect children.

:38:03.:38:06.

But is still happening. We have given the welfare pop-up money to --

:38:07.:38:17.

we have given the top up fund to the professor. There has been complete

:38:18.:38:24.

abdication by Sinn Fein and the Alliance. The power has been given

:38:25.:38:29.

away. That is not good enough. My recommendation to the professor

:38:30.:38:35.

would be to protect those with disabilities and children. By and

:38:36.:38:39.

assure the other parties would dispute your interpretation. They

:38:40.:38:45.

have been noticeable by their absence this week in the media. They

:38:46.:38:49.

have not come forward. If you had an influence over where the money would

:38:50.:38:53.

go what would you do? The first thing to say is that whatever way we

:38:54.:39:01.

measure it that wealthier mitigation arrangements are better than in

:39:02.:39:11.

Scotland, England and Wales. Any recommendations can only be within

:39:12.:39:16.

the fiscal envelope that they have. There is a couple of points. Before

:39:17.:39:21.

we deal with this question of tax credits and what has been described

:39:22.:39:25.

as a windfall, but I would not describe it as, if you look at what

:39:26.:39:29.

the Treasury is already imposing as fines on the executive, in this

:39:30.:39:35.

financial year the kicking at ?140 million, which is roughly ?20

:39:36.:39:39.

million over and above what is earmarked in the fresh start

:39:40.:39:43.

Agreement for welfare reform at a geisha. Already there is a ?20

:39:44.:39:46.

million gap there. That is before the deal with the questions that

:39:47.:39:50.

have been raised this week. The much bigger point to make is that the

:39:51.:39:56.

changes that the Chancellor announced in the art statement this

:39:57.:40:00.

week are simply a delay of the implications that were going to

:40:01.:40:04.

happen anyway around tax credits. The Institute for the school studies

:40:05.:40:10.

have said that people who would have been affected by the tax credits

:40:11.:40:15.

changes will by the end of the parliament actually be worse off

:40:16.:40:17.

after the Autumn Statement than they would have been and at the tax

:40:18.:40:21.

credits changes because all of the same productions to the incomes and

:40:22.:40:25.

more will happen under Universal Credit. From a citizens advice point

:40:26.:40:29.

of view and the perspective of the poultry sector, the ?60 million

:40:30.:40:34.

annually should be retained to cushion the impact of those people

:40:35.:40:37.

because they either see people who are going to be affected as would

:40:38.:40:40.

been affected by tax credit reductions. That is an important

:40:41.:40:44.

point. While may feel that your position to some extent has been

:40:45.:40:48.

vindicated and this is a development worth celebrating, four years down

:40:49.:40:54.

the line went Universal Credit takes over from the current system, nobody

:40:55.:40:57.

knows quite what the situation is going to be, but this is a fair bet

:40:58.:41:01.

that people in receipt of benefits will be worse off, not better off.

:41:02.:41:06.

Absolutely. This is the problem with giving power back over to a Tory

:41:07.:41:09.

garments. There has been a war on the poor. It has been waged by this

:41:10.:41:16.

Tory Government. It is to continue. This latest piece of spend is just

:41:17.:41:25.

that. But that power comes back. It does not reside in Westminster. But

:41:26.:41:29.

what it ensures us that play mini legislation and regulation changes,

:41:30.:41:35.

these types of details, that'll all be decided in Westminster before we

:41:36.:41:40.

get our powers back. That is what DUP, Sinn Fein and the Alliance

:41:41.:41:45.

wanted. They wanted somebody else to make a difficult decision.

:41:46.:41:49.

What concern is it that locally elected politicians will not have

:41:50.:41:53.

the degree of influence that they might otherwise have had had the

:41:54.:41:56.

Mideast difficult decisions entirely at Stormont? That is a matter for

:41:57.:42:03.

the political parties to discuss. There are lots of ways in which the

:42:04.:42:09.

impact of welfare reform can be made less worse. A lot of that is in the

:42:10.:42:14.

detail of the legislation and the regulations which has been handed

:42:15.:42:18.

back to Westminster. There is a little bit of ambiguity over how

:42:19.:42:22.

much influence the Assembly will have around that and how quickly

:42:23.:42:26.

those powers and advances will come back. We want to say that back as

:42:27.:42:29.

quickly as possible. What do you say to those people

:42:30.:42:37.

watching who think that benefits in Northern Ireland are better

:42:38.:42:39.

protected in Northern Ireland than anywhere else in the UK? There are

:42:40.:42:44.

other areas which could do very well with this extra money, schools,

:42:45.:42:53.

hospitals, education. We have done our bit. The mitigation is there for

:42:54.:42:57.

those in receipt of benefits, other alias needs to be with that and

:42:58.:43:01.

vulnerable people need hospital bed. That is right but the executive, the

:43:02.:43:05.

parties that signed up to fresh start, took the decision to cushion

:43:06.:43:09.

the blow to a certain level. Regardless of what being George

:43:10.:43:14.

Osborne calls at, if the parties are to honour what they set out to do in

:43:15.:43:18.

fresh start, the windfall, as you described it, needs to be retained

:43:19.:43:26.

to help the same people who will be affected are freshly bite reductions

:43:27.:43:31.

by another name and the delayed time. But this was a horror film,

:43:32.:43:39.

the director has decided there is going to be a costume change and the

:43:40.:43:44.

villain will come on later in the script but the end is just as gaudy

:43:45.:43:45.

as everyone was expecting, and even a little bit worse. You are nodding

:43:46.:43:52.

your head. Absolutely. This is a Tory Government waging war on the

:43:53.:43:58.

poor in Northern Ireland. If we have people driven to destitution we're

:43:59.:44:02.

going to have to put in services to protect them whether hospital

:44:03.:44:08.

appointments, food banks, one way or another we need to look after these

:44:09.:44:10.

people. And let's hear what Deirdre and Alex

:44:11.:44:17.

think. Most people listening are confused.

:44:18.:46:02.

Claims, counterclaims. This is our money. Most people listening are

:46:03.:46:03.

confused. Claims, counterclaims. This is ourmoney. . Most people

:46:04.:46:06.

listening areconfused. Claims, counterclaims. This is ourmoney. .

:46:07.:46:08.

Most peoplelistening areconfused. Claims,counterclaims. This is our

:46:09.:46:09.

money. . Who needs the money most? Most

:46:10.:47:21.

Jim Allister has told the TUV conference that the party will set

:47:22.:47:33.

He strongly criticised the Executive's record and said

:47:34.:47:35.

the TUV will make an issue of greed and squander during the campaign.

:47:36.:47:38.

Our Political Correspondent, Chris Page, was

:47:39.:47:43.

There is no doubt he makes a big impact.

:47:44.:47:57.

When the bags and wind farms are biting as eight of business.

:47:58.:48:07.

I on the ball and said I on the camera that would suit some of our

:48:08.:48:13.

ministers better. He to aim at what he described as the catastrophic

:48:14.:48:23.

failure of DUP, Sinn Fein rule. Enough is enough. Would you be

:48:24.:48:35.

expecting two or three or four? I am not putting numbers on it. 11 TUV

:48:36.:48:44.

candidates have been selected so far. The former chair of Ukip will

:48:45.:48:53.

stand in Southdown. You were associated with one party and note

:48:54.:49:02.

you are standing for another. TUV and Ukip have similar views on

:49:03.:49:07.

European issues. What makes the TUV different is that it has a positive

:49:08.:49:13.

message on the issue of the devolved Assembly. Conference speeches

:49:14.:49:21.

emphasise that the TUV fever voluntarily caution and opposition.

:49:22.:49:27.

Another issue was unit. The party wants the UK to leave the EU.

:49:28.:49:37.

Northern Ireland is not served well by the EU. We would have the money

:49:38.:49:43.

that we are presently paying end, millions and millions each week,

:49:44.:49:47.

have it back, and then decide our priorities. Some of those priorities

:49:48.:49:51.

would still be in Northern Ireland as part of the UK.

:49:52.:49:56.

In that debate as others the TUV voice wants to be as loud as

:49:57.:50:01.

possible. How he the volume will become all depend on how many MLAs

:50:02.:50:07.

they get in me. Chris Page among the party faithful

:50:08.:50:10.

at yesterday's TUV conference. More than a hundred world leaders

:50:11.:50:12.

are due in Paris this week for They're meeting to try to agree a

:50:13.:50:15.

deal to curb emissions and prevent Among them will be our Environment

:50:16.:50:20.

Minister, Mark H Durkan. But what difference can somewhere

:50:21.:50:23.

as small as Northern Ireland make? Northern Ireland is a small place.

:50:24.:50:40.

What impact can Mark H Durkan have? David Cameron once promised as the

:50:41.:50:48.

cleanest Government ever. He shot the Huskies a long time ago. He had

:50:49.:50:56.

been dismantling support for renewable energy and withdrawing

:50:57.:50:59.

from that leadership role. There is an increasing onus on the devolved

:51:00.:51:04.

parts of the UK to take up the mantle of leadership. When Mark goes

:51:05.:51:11.

to the conference he will not only contribute, but there is a deep

:51:12.:51:15.

learning that goes on for ministers who discover that the most desperate

:51:16.:51:23.

communities, cities and countries are beginning to transform their

:51:24.:51:26.

economies, responding to climate change. But also help mark with the

:51:27.:51:33.

groundwork he has been doing. He will be tabling paper at the

:51:34.:51:38.

executive and the next couple of days, reintroducing the idea of a

:51:39.:51:41.

climate change Bill for Northern Ireland with targets so that we will

:51:42.:51:45.

bring new momentum to the delivery of climate change performance, the

:51:46.:51:51.

transformation that needs to take place. If you were in a position to

:51:52.:51:55.

advise Mark H Durkan on what he should be saying is what they should

:51:56.:51:58.

be hoping to come home with what would that advice be? We need to

:51:59.:52:03.

think about climate change less as an environmental issue and think

:52:04.:52:07.

about it as an industrial transformation. We were once in the

:52:08.:52:12.

cockpit of the industrial revolution. Are going to be part the

:52:13.:52:16.

new industrial resolution that you transformation that is required? He

:52:17.:52:23.

will have to have news that touches on each of the sectors that are

:52:24.:52:29.

major contributors. Farmers have to become more efficient with

:52:30.:52:32.

application of nitrogen and fertilisers. We could embrace ideas

:52:33.:52:37.

like the circular economy. Resolve issues like fuel to but upgrading is

:52:38.:52:42.

essential accommodation. Copenhagen was the last big climate conference

:52:43.:52:47.

six years ago. It was a bit of a disappointment. It was dubbed by

:52:48.:52:52.

some critics as hopeless. Realistically what do you think

:52:53.:52:58.

world leaders in our own Mark Duggan and other environment ministers can

:52:59.:53:04.

hope to achieve? One of the lessons is that we have to emphasise more

:53:05.:53:08.

what we can do locally, from the state level and the city level.

:53:09.:53:13.

Leadership, even among civil society, there will be a march today

:53:14.:53:17.

at two o'clock for example, to support logical leaders in taking

:53:18.:53:21.

forward this agenda. But as a big difference this time. For past

:53:22.:53:27.

couple of years the parties to the convention have been tabling their

:53:28.:53:34.

indicative offers of emissions reductions, policies that will now

:53:35.:53:39.

be taken up in the negotiations. Readers will attend the start of the

:53:40.:53:46.

conference. We already know that the ambition is beginning to move as

:53:47.:53:53.

towards 2 degrees temperature goal. We have to do more. The hope to

:53:54.:53:57.

close that gap during the negotiations but it will not be left

:53:58.:54:00.

to the negotiators in Paris. The parties who are going there have

:54:01.:54:06.

some level of ambition. The other part of the climate Justice peace is

:54:07.:54:13.

the technology that the poorest of the poor need in order to adapt to

:54:14.:54:19.

emissions reductions. A big part of this is about transferring

:54:20.:54:23.

resources, helping those who are most exposed to climate change at

:54:24.:54:30.

the moment. The challenge is to get countries to set aside the specific

:54:31.:54:32.

interests and agendas for the glitter warble good and that is a

:54:33.:54:36.

challenge for a new industrial powerhouses like China and India but

:54:37.:54:43.

also for France, Germany, the UK and the US. It is not about setting

:54:44.:54:47.

aside interests, it is about aligning our interests with nature.

:54:48.:54:53.

You cannot go shoot with nature. Nature has to be aligned. Religious

:54:54.:55:00.

leaders are now tough thing about the rates of nature that has to be

:55:01.:55:04.

set alongside human rights in the context of climate justice. It is

:55:05.:55:09.

not one or the other. It is about aligning our priorities, he will

:55:10.:55:12.

upon the earth, with the needs of the Earth. We will see how that

:55:13.:55:16.

alignment takes place in Paris this week.

:55:17.:55:26.

Now look back at the week in 60 seconds.

:55:27.:55:33.

An extra ?240 million leader after the Chancellor's U-turn on tax

:55:34.:55:37.

credits cuts. The Chancellor has changed his mind completely. It is

:55:38.:55:45.

fantastic. The final Assembly lap for Peter Robinson and an unexpected

:55:46.:55:47.

sendoff. But that was not always like this. He was a total pain in

:55:48.:55:58.

the early days and now he is contributing hugely. Rare praise

:55:59.:56:07.

from the DUP for a Secretary of State. When they threatened tough to

:56:08.:56:12.

lose that she stood up to them. The Health Minister changed course after

:56:13.:56:19.

private care home closures. We pause and we reflect and we give

:56:20.:56:21.

consideration to what has been plus boards. And at Stormont to new faces

:56:22.:56:28.

were unveiled. Seamus Heaney and CS Lewis

:56:29.:56:36.

wrapping up Gareth Gordon's 60 Let's have a final chat with Deirdre

:56:37.:56:39.

and Alex. Were you surprised to see Peter

:56:40.:56:50.

Robinson getting a standing ovation from some members of Sinn Fein. It

:56:51.:56:56.

would be bizarre to have done the deal and then not to applaud. Only

:56:57.:57:02.

six months ago they were willing to do a deal. It is just a civil thing

:57:03.:57:08.

at moments like this to acknowledge the fact he has been nearer 40

:57:09.:57:13.

years, he has made a difference, the Assembly exists largely because of

:57:14.:57:16.

what Peter Robinson has done. It would've been nice to that. The

:57:17.:57:21.

Ulster Unionists refused to stand up or to clap. Who could have guessed

:57:22.:57:29.

that in a short space of time they wanted to deal with them? It seemed

:57:30.:57:34.

churlish. The leadership should have been acknowledged and was not. It

:57:35.:57:38.

did not cast them in a good light. Looking back area lies it was

:57:39.:57:42.

probably a decision. You both attended for professional reasons

:57:43.:57:49.

the TUV conference. I very, but the Jim Allister on display. He is

:57:50.:57:54.

always confident. He knows he is the best public Speaker in politics in

:57:55.:57:58.

Northern Ireland. The big challenge for the TUV is the best public

:57:59.:58:00.

Speaker in politics in Northern Ireland. The big challenge for the

:58:01.:58:05.

TUV as they that document the vast majority of people deep down do not

:58:06.:58:10.

believe that Jim Allister and TUV wanted to work. That'll be a

:58:11.:58:14.

problem. It was our arrival rousing speech, what we have come to expect

:58:15.:58:18.

from Jim Allister. They were saying they want to go back to direct rule

:58:19.:58:21.

and most commentators would say be careful what you wish for. Could the

:58:22.:58:26.

electricity or two for them come the election? It'll be tough for them.

:58:27.:58:30.

They are only standing 16 candidates. Two or three maximum.

:58:31.:58:33.

officers will be lost? We are going to let that question

:58:34.:58:36.

hang now. Thank you. Andrew. Sadly that is it for today because

:58:37.:58:48.

we have just been told we have been truncated to make way for live

:58:49.:58:52.

coverage of the Davis Cup tennis final here on BBC One. There is

:58:53.:58:54.

always next week! Remember - if it's Sunday,

:58:55.:58:59.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:59:00.:59:14.

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