10/01/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland

David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month

on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.

Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?

He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign

but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end

of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?

We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.

Junior doctors defy Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt

And in Northern Ireland: She's about to take on the role

of First Minister, so what are the main issues facing

Arlene Foster and what kind of relationship will she forge

and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things

We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not

resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political

panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation

of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.

He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade

So they will be free to campaign for an exit.

But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever

that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.

My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive

prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a

reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around

the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about

this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that

at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a

clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope

that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a

good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government

position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with

long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able

to campaign. And we're joined now

by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I

do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because

he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella

Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet

ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than

Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even

yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which

pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis

alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be

about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it

will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa

May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,

it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will

be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has

had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the

assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a

liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million

people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his

party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows

what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has

slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties

matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal

decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is

a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it

tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,

is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the

Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did

it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,

have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning

from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and

declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is

published, the decisions had been taken in private with no

journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two

thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?

I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right

to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot

think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa

May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan

Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior

officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by

ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20

years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting

moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were

important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine

will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing

unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal

which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,

does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not

important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come

because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.

And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,

tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.

In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess

for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in

summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If

they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do

not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have

four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the

moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence

of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not

matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The

city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to

financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If

David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime

Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an

answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how

it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a

British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely

outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish

independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British

exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry

out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank

you. Nick, there is no doubt that the

Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back

from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the

European Union. His official languages that he wants to

renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep

them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British

exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.

Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the

Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost

the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out

there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future

and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they

prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this

morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will

back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with

David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You

will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes

vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million

voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That

is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say

which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least

50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going

to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem

for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially

acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be

plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister

having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet

minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less

lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the

European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It

introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much

less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for

another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the

presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next

election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.

So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.

Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's

leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.

Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning

from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group

she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"

Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.

As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,

can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?

A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.

But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.

There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree

with their leader and vote with the government,

not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.

Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng

Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,

was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.

Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.

There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.

The leadership team denied any such briefing.

But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,

the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been

The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that

Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.

Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.

What then followed was a raft of resignations.

The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.

Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme

I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.

I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,

that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.

Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,

undoubtedly they will do that about me.

Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones

Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also

We have had a few junior members resign today

and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow

right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around

I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.

Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.

By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,

I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's

Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy

review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can

reveal she now feels she has to resign.

I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all

the while he had gone to the television studio to call

the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right

We are all Labour members and we believe in having

That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,

and I do not want to be on the television talking

about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have

no other choice now but to stand up and say,

this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting

The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.

It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.

But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had

threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.

Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.

What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,

not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,

and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?

This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.

One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this

Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused

on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking

It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.

Actually, can I have a coffee instead?

We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,

Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael

Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good

to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.

How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about

the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think

that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody

will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful

to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick

through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line

under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,

to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task

and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision

and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we

have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree

the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme

of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was

incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week

have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.

You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he

incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will

serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done

over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened

this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is

a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a

broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and

together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not

just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is

in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That

is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the

Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under

last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow

Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn

into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11

Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been

named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here

political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet

remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.

This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party

and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the

Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn

bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy

Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not

my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the

Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them

is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,

and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at

the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let

me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she

has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and

always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident

review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is

obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear

deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we

will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is

a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I

think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear

deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that

Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear

disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this

process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident

at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet

about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my

experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as

everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument

and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try

to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the

trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes

and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience

that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear

arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament

tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of

Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out

for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I

would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.

If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's

position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in

the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion

we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very

surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was

one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see

when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am

doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to

elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You

either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be

on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop

playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are

reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor

already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to

policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National

Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive

committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to

happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on

the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders

of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be

made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We

have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive

Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got

a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with

outside experts and party members and the public and it could be

improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we

have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right

policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to

be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow

Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a

right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right

or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we

have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name

calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is

to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues

around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40

years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents

expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is

anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this

internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is

what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies

for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an

answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour

Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just

had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the

economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the

crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is

making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite

of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you

disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned

from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because

Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many

years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing

campaigner on issues of child poverty and international

development and how we can change the economy to make it work for

working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to

the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective

parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing

she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to

move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire

knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that

is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily

Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm

which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations

against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words

of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she

returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know

about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given

or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and

you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.

Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.

Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement

a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,

It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments

and operations and the Government argues

So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?

The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.

The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished

medical school but are not consultants yet.

It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas

to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,

and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.

It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,

which actually, I think that ambition is shared

across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,

and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,

the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office

for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,

so I think they were absolutely right to start this

But the doctors are furious about it.

Both sides have been negotiating for months,

most recently on Friday, when the gap between them

Let's look at some of the concessions made

They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.

Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not

But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.

The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called

guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work

They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,

and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see

Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,

but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating

team who told me that the number of unresolved issues

Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.

She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior

doctors who will follow in her footsteps.

They will probably find themselves working more weekends,

They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible

with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives

of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children

in school, and they would struggle with that.

It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,

erratic working hours, is proven not to be good

for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that

If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood

that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge

More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along

It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior

On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only

Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors

This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir

One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not

seeing the real problems in the health service.

There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,

this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough

staff to deal with the demands in A

There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health

service, A doctors are leaving the health service.

These are the key issues which need to be addressed,

and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation

or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government

Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way

But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers

Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,

the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither

But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary

He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.

Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a

fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke

hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a

long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating

parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for

this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the

negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just

highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.

The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of

strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the

negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on

within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay

negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.

There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government

to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We

have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess

mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part

of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared

by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on

strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend

deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is

right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that

is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that

shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That

is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the

health service and the management leaders and the government from a

policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the

report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to

determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and

it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the

Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not

using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of

patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We

know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should

we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps

the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly

unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS

unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS

without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the

government announced in the comprehensive spending review before

Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS

ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is

unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care

services we want in our country without addressing some of the

fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also

about joining up the different elements of the health and social

care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio

on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different

subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we

need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,

which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a

review of the funding and structure of health and care services.

The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on

health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not

financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of

GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we

spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These

other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are

closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope

to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work

in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health

service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I

say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely

one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be

addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned

this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.

Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what

is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland

devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around

excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we

do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that

we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on

spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the

world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend

more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move

away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of

the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across

health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing

your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go

on. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

in Northern Ireland. The day before she's expected

to become First Minister, we look at the challenges

facing Arlene Foster. In this year of centenaries,

is there a way to commemorate both the Easter Rising and the Somme that

will please all sides? And with me throughout

the programme with their thoughts are the journalists

Allison Morris and Sam McBride. Tomorrow Arlene Foster is expected

to officially become First Minister. The Fermanagh MLA became party

leader before Christmas and says she's humbled to be

following in the footsteps So what should she be concentrating

on in the weeks ahead? Our Political Correspondent,

Stephen Walker, has been considering what should be

in the First Minister's in-tray. Thank you for the confidence and you

have shown in the. Thank you for the opportunity you have given me. Our

new First Minister will be Arlene Foster. Margaret Thatcher was known

as the iron Lady, and Arlene will be no other no ironing lady. By all

accounts, Arlene Foster has a good sense of humour and she will need

it. From now on, she will be the number one target of comedians and

cartoonists. From tomorrow, everything stops at her office. So

as to thousands 16 and false, what can we realistically expect from the

new First Minister? How things be different, Sammy Wilson could have

been preparing this weekend for his first day as First Minister, but he

decided not to challenge Arlene Foster. Instead, he offers her with

advice. She has a fairly daunting task. The Assembly doesn't have a

great image, partly because of its own behaviour and the way the media

has treated some of its successors. The first thing she must do is try

between now and the election to get a lot of positives for the Assembly.

What can we expect from Arlene Foster? Some say she now has an

opportunity to be very different from their predecessors. Her biggest

hurdles will be first reaching out and being perfectly in command of

her only Unionism, reaching out to nationalism and saying she means it.

She has said that, she has said it is ridiculous not to. Her other one

is going to be managing the party. Managing it in a positive way rather

than a negative way, rather than just keeping down dissent. She

doesn't need to do that. The months ahead, Foster will want to see

Lieberman and Asian of the French -- fresh start agreement. Education is

also a priority as you push for investment and prioritise job

creation. But aside from the wider economic issues, Mays Assembly

elections loom large. She does not want to spend me the six touring

studios and explaining why the DUP as last six or seven seats. They

will not be -- fall behind Sinn Fein, she does not want after

spending the day doing that. She was to come back and say yes, new

leader, new party, new conditions. We did extraordinarily well. That is

the only thing she has to say, because when she does that, the

party is settled, it is her party. At the many, it is not entirely

hers, she has to prove herself. If she does that may the sick, she can

do anything she likes after that. So will and bolts of Government.

Therefore, I think people will be prepared to give her trust in the

months ahead. To some, Foster is more than a politician. They see her

as somebody who can inspire other women to enter public life. I think

it is something Arlene Foster should definitely concentrate on. There are

women in her party and elsewhere who she could encourage and she should

do that. Do you think she will? It will be a big mistake if she didn't

I think. I think people expect that of her, it is new style, new

leadership and a new DUP with her on board. And she has tremendous

opportunities to make change. All leaders are judged by results and

Arlene Foster will be no difference. A political honeymoon will be brief.

Polling day is just four months away.

Stephen Walker taking a peek at Arlene Foster's "to do" list.

And joining me with their thoughts are journalists Sam McBride

Allison, will the DUP look different to the Catholic/Nationalist

I think at this point of the relationship between Peter Robinson

and Sinn Fein had failed to such a point, she has low starting point

she can only do better. But as a leader, her main priority... We

almost had to DUP is at one point. What she needs to do is put the

legacy Peter Robinson behind her. She does not want to be seen as just

following on from him, she needs to make a stamp. Before she attempts to

reach out to Nationalists, she needs to unite her own party and quell any

dissent. She said there were not two wings within the party. How do she

hold of the religious or secular elements of the DUP together must

remark I think between now and the next election, she will be quite

staid and conservative in how she manages the party. It is about

getting as many seats back as possible. After the election, there

is a period of about three years when there is no election and that

is when we will see the real Arlene Foster and what she's made of and

where she was to take the party. Can she hold that call, keep the core

elements of the DUP happy while at the same time trying to reach out to

the non-court voters? There are two potential areas where she can reach

out. She can reach at a Catholics or people who might be persuaded to

move from the best all Peter Unionist party which Peter Robinson

has suggested he would try to do and failed in any meaningful way. Or she

can try to reach out to liberal Protestant unionist people who are

turned off by issues such as abortion and gay marriage and

potentially, I think, we could see rather than any softening of the DUP

on constitutional issues, we could see a softening in terms of social

issues, not in terms of Foster's supporting abortion, but perhaps

moving to a position where they don't take a position on it. If she

tries to reach out to Catholic nationalist voters, people who vote

for the SDLP, what kind of response do you think she will get? And Peter

Robinson said he was going to try and reach out, he refused to engage

with us in any way, so that was hardly indicative of someone trying

to reach out to Nationalists. It will be interesting to see, Arlene

will appeal to strong women who are looking for direction in the social

issues. She has already made clear that her stance on things such as

gay marriage and soft issues on the different than what Peter Robinson's

were. Some have suggested the flags protest killed off the DUP's attempt

to reach out? She's not Belfast -based, so she's not tainted with

the stigma of the flag protest. That was a Belfast protest, let's face

it. She comes fresh from that, so Nationalists don't connect in any

way to those protests. One of the significant issues is that we have a

leader of the union who is not a member of Orange Order. That is very

sick and if it can. She is also from a rural Protestant unionist

community and will not instinctively be very supportive of some of the

antics we have seen in Belfast. Allison, do you expect to promote

women? While, Margaret Thatcher pushed women down, but I like to

think Arlene Foster would and you can already see a change in

leadership around the DUP coming up through the back of the ranks and I

would like to see them pushed to the front.

The new year saw the start of the Republic's official

commemorations of the Easter Rising centenary.

Later in the year the Battle of the Somme's 100th anniversary

In a moment I'll be asking two historians how they view those key

But first, here's the Irish Minister with responsibility for the year

of centenaries, Heather Humphreys, speaking to BBC Newsline's Mark

As you know, I am an Ulster woman and I come from a Presbyterian

family, so I am conscious of the sensitivities and I fully understand

that how people may be concerned about it. But I have been a very

keen that these commemorations would be respectful and it is about

commemorating what happened in 1916 but also about reflecting on an

Ireland in the last century and looking ambitiously to the future.

As well as that, the Government had planned a comprehensive Somme

commemoration, because, as I know and we all know, so many Ulster men

and indeed Irish men right across the whole of Ireland lost their

lives in the battle of the Somme. We will also commemorate those events.

This is a great opportunity for us to come together, reflects our

shared history and there is so much of our history in 1916 and that is

intertwined and that has been revealed through World War I

commemorations, so we will all look together at the past, but what is

important is we look ambitiously to the future.

With me now are the historians Lord Bew and Dr Marie Coleman.

Paul Bew, the Rising was a key part of the history of this whole island.

Why do Unionists seem reluctant to engage with this anniversary?

You must remember that constitutional nationalism also

condemned the rising, the Democratic leadership of nationalist Ireland

condemned it and there is a crucial question of the appeal to allies in

Germany. So it control of it be rising that unionist even today

remain it in a condemnatory mode. It raises great difficulties about

historical understanding and what it means. It would be a good thing if

Unionists could accept at least a partial element of response ability.

They were the first to bring gunners interisland, but not the first to

use them and it is ridiculous to say that Irish Republicans needed the

example of Unionists. But it would be a good thing if there was some

understanding of the conflict and of the role that Unionists also played.

This doesn't in any way involved them in saying he was a good thing,

it was in many respects a disaster, particularly for Catholics in the

North and created a harsher partition and was economically a

much harsher life for two generations of Irish people. They

were all consequences of the rising and are much more sectarian society

come all consequences of the rising for which unionist are not

responsible. Marie, but would be the smart way for unionist to approach

the commemoration? Nationalists will find themselves in a similar

position in five years when it comes to commemorating the setting up of

Northern Ireland. Taking a longer term into account would be a good

idea to start with. I've been impressed with the number of

references that Arlene Foster has made to 1916 and I think her initial

speech at the New Year talking about engaging and reflecting on the

rising is quite important. It is a good sign and likewise, there is a

willingness in Unionism to engage with a historic significance of the

Rising. She quoted recently that she would be taking part in an of the

events as part of this so-called commemoration? I kind of language

doesn't strike some people as being particularly liberal? I caught the

reference, and I know she has been painted as backtracking from her

initial statement at the New Year, but I don't think she has. I think

she is still reflecting the significance and prepared to engage

with the significance of the Rising, but I do think anyone could

legitimately expect to attend the set piece parades that will be

taking place in Dublin on Easter Sunday. It is a challenge for

Unionists, Paul, I don't know what your thoughts are on what Arlene

Foster said, but she has said she will not take part representing

Northern Ireland as the First Minister in those particular events.

Magnus Pitt said he will organise -- Mike Nesbitt is organise --

suggesting his party in the Republic

to mark the occasion. in many respects, if you look at the

rhetoric of the Rising, it is followers into the post office and

you will have a country of 20 million Irish speaking. What you

actually get, and it's almost inevitable once rigid use a gun into

Irish politics, is rigid as a country of 2 million

English-speaking, a harsher partition, Ireland becomes

overtaxed, and what you actually get is you have to cut your own age --

old-age pensioners soon as you get an independent Irish Government. So

the Independent and economical project if taken seriously is

dishonest and in many respects a radical failure. This isn't to say

there is not the bravery and sincerity on the part of people at

the Rising, but there doesn't seem to be anything to be afraid of

intellectually for Unionists to engage with. The downside of the

Rising is dramatic and the worst downside is that any small group of

self appointed people can say I define Irish is true, I will get the

gun and I'm like the men of 1916, it doesn't matter what the men are

voting for. It is also a challenge for Sinn Fein who are running own

commemorative events. It seems to be painting itself other national --

natural air. -- natural heir. The Sinn Fein of 1916 was not the

Republican Sinn Fein that would emerge in 1917. If Irish parties are

fighting over the legitimate legacy of the rising, it will be the Irish

Labour Party who may be ahead of the queue to claim that legacy. Sinn

Fein are our position. We saw this last year as well, on one hand, they

are going into an election which be held in advance of the

commemorations and you can't understand the importance of these

commemorations without seeing him in the context of that election. On the

one hand, they're going into it and playing a full part in Parliament

politics, spiralling to being in Government in the south, but at the

same time, the by-elections fought were

weakening but still have the support of Irish Nationalists. That was Sinn

Fein's argument 100 years ago. This time, there is no problem, they say

they will extend its for a year even though that gives exactly the same

argument, that the men of 1916 had. Your mandate has run out, we are

entitled to use our gunner. It is a curious thing. People claim to being

chewed with Irish history and think deeply about it, most people are

claiming it is not in Schumann at all that interesting resonances.

The Somme commemoration is approaching. What are the pitfalls

there? Proper respect has been paid to the many people who are Catholic

and nationalist communities who lost their lives and indeed I curl up in

the, absolutely gym article is so in the summer of 1915.

It was said there was hardly a family in Northern Ireland who did

not have a loss of life. Marie, you mentioned percent scene of the

foundation of the state of Northern Ireland. What about the Somme? About

how it is marked by Unionists and those who are not from the unionist

background? When you look at previous commemorations, what was

missing was the conferences approach to 1916 and Irish Government will be

marking the Somme as well. Unionists could look at aspects of the 1916

commemorations in Ireland which will also mark the Irish men who joined

the rising. -- Rising. I want the Irish Government to be more

inclusive this time. Let's pause for a look back

at the political week gone past With flooding causing huge problems,

three executive ministers met to discuss hell up. We all different

ideas as ministers, and we will discuss in next week and take on how

we can help people. Simon Hamilton named the panel to shape the future

of health care. This is a massive next step in terms of taking forward

recommendations. We want to learn from other experiences elsewhere and

take expert advice for outside Northern Ireland. Will these teams

be going to Belfast City Hall? It is a unique situation. Tonight we will

hold an event that logistically will be difficult. Tributes were paid to

Liam Clarke, he was a Sunday Politics regular who died at

Christmas. STL P veteran said he was leading the Assembly. -- SDLP.

We're certainly all the poorer for Liam Clarke's passing and he'll

The final fought -- thoughts from Alison and Samba. Difficult is about

the outgoing Sinn Fein... It is a lesson not just the politicians but

for us all and that so most people. But we were seen by 167 people which

is only up for an hour could end up costing a small fortune. It was a

monumental a stupid thing to have done and it took a long to

apologise. It shed some light on why Sinn Fein deselected Fine Gael, he

has done one gaffe too many to be reselected. It is a lesson for us

all. On one hand, but do say on Twitter account the views are my

own, but it doesn't mind -- mean you can say things you wouldn't

necessarily say in the newspaper. If I tweet something, I think what I

put it in my column, if not, I wouldn't put it on Twitter. Your

thoughts on the discussion we have just tired in challengers for the

parties about the Easter Rising and the Somme? Politicians are getting

dragged in the most upper part in it, particularly south of the border

where it is about the foundation of the state. People will learn a lot

more lessons. There are lessons for all sides. There is not moral

equivalence between all the side that took part, there are a lot of

books in the last year about it, more so than politicians getting

dragged into it. Both of those events involve all the people of

this Ireland and the shaped -- and it shaped the Ireland we live and

now. Everyone should be invested rather than take ownership of one

side or the other. And you can hear an interview

with Arlene Foster on BBC Radio and beget affordable to Londoners to

buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister

is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,

replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought

in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's

pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,

many built after the war, where people can feel

trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good

life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government

money but with massive private sector and perhaps

pension sector help, demolish the worst of these

and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can

have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for

this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100

sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.

Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster

what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind

it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began

his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his

premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a

rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor

people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and

modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is

only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly

amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When

you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism

whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?

Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable

rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not

affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime

Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned

pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to

infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in

these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their

sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the

report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in

so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower

blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,

but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw

the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front

page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that

inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner

cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there

has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they

think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these

hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about

rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's

monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and

let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would

be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them

at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in

Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an

Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend

less time in the office, they might have to break them

because 2016 is going to keep them busy.

The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,

will dominate the political landscape.

David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,

but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,

The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May

will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first

In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out

But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -

And in the local elections there are predictions Labour

could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.

Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.

London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining

a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.

Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may

finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion

Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global

slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England

And come the summer, we should finally find out

what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.

Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is

this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,

it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a

possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This

becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it

will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power

and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an

existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so

forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the

Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so

excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory

party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I

would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It

was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this

as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this

would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for

about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime

Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to

campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that

the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into

a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the

tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will

not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other

side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they

see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be

right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help

themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.

It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is

Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this

year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the

front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country

might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not

the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was

demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first

place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by

actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves

believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some

prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the

Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and

they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the

results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the

centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will

make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can

reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good

year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in

government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor

elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to

say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I

do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election

results sense is even if the election

results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are

as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in

Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident

policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the

Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the

National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so

they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos

looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --

Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections

do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative

that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the

Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without

question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime

Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.

The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.