10/01/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


10/01/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers discuss EU renegotiation with David Davis, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn with Lucy Powell, and a seven-day health service with Stephen Dorrell.


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David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month

:00:38.:00:46.

on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.

:00:47.:00:51.

Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?

:00:52.:00:58.

He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign

:00:59.:01:00.

but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end

:01:01.:01:04.

of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?

:01:05.:01:07.

We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.

:01:08.:01:11.

Junior doctors defy Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt

:01:12.:01:14.

And in Northern Ireland: She's about to take on the role

:01:15.:01:17.

of First Minister, so what are the main issues facing

:01:18.:01:19.

Arlene Foster and what kind of relationship will she forge

:01:20.:01:21.

and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things

:01:22.:01:26.

We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not

:01:27.:01:40.

resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political

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panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

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So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation

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of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.

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He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade

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So they will be free to campaign for an exit.

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But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever

:02:04.:02:06.

that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.

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My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive

:02:09.:02:19.

prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a

:02:20.:02:23.

reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around

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the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about

:02:29.:02:32.

this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that

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at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a

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clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope

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that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a

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good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government

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position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with

:02:52.:03:05.

long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able

:03:06.:03:06.

to campaign. And we're joined now

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by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I

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do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because

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he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella

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Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet

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ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than

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Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even

:03:37.:03:42.

yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which

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pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis

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alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be

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about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it

:03:58.:04:03.

will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa

:04:04.:04:08.

May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,

:04:09.:04:14.

it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will

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be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has

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had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the

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assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a

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liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million

:04:35.:04:39.

people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his

:04:40.:04:47.

party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows

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what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has

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slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties

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matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal

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decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is

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a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it

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tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,

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is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the

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Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did

:05:26.:05:31.

it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,

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have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning

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from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and

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declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is

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published, the decisions had been taken in private with no

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journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two

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thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?

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I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right

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to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot

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think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa

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May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan

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Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior

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officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by

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ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20

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years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting

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moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were

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important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine

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will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing

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unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal

:07:07.:07:10.

which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,

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does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not

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important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come

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because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.

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And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,

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tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.

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In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess

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for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in

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summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If

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they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do

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not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have

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four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the

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moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence

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of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not

:08:17.:08:19.

matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The

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city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to

:08:27.:08:30.

financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If

:08:31.:08:34.

David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime

:08:35.:08:38.

Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an

:08:39.:08:45.

answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how

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it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a

:08:51.:08:55.

British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely

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outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish

:09:01.:09:06.

independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British

:09:07.:09:10.

exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry

:09:11.:09:14.

out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank

:09:15.:09:18.

you. Nick, there is no doubt that the

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Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back

:09:22.:09:26.

from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the

:09:27.:09:30.

European Union. His official languages that he wants to

:09:31.:09:33.

renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep

:09:34.:09:38.

them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British

:09:39.:09:41.

exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.

:09:42.:09:46.

Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the

:09:47.:09:50.

Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost

:09:51.:09:57.

the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out

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there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future

:10:02.:10:06.

and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they

:10:07.:10:10.

prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this

:10:11.:10:13.

morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will

:10:14.:10:17.

back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with

:10:18.:10:21.

David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You

:10:22.:10:27.

will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes

:10:28.:10:31.

vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million

:10:32.:10:38.

voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That

:10:39.:10:42.

is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say

:10:43.:10:47.

which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least

:10:48.:10:52.

50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going

:10:53.:10:57.

to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem

:10:58.:11:01.

for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially

:11:02.:11:05.

acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be

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plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister

:11:12.:11:15.

having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet

:11:16.:11:21.

minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less

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lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the

:11:27.:11:30.

European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It

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introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much

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less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for

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another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the

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presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next

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election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.

:11:55.:11:58.

So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.

:11:59.:12:00.

Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's

:12:01.:12:03.

leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.

:12:04.:12:05.

Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning

:12:06.:12:08.

from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group

:12:09.:12:12.

she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"

:12:13.:12:15.

Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.

:12:16.:12:19.

As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,

:12:20.:12:22.

can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?

:12:23.:12:25.

A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.

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But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.

:12:40.:12:44.

There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree

:12:45.:12:49.

with their leader and vote with the government,

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not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.

:12:52.:12:57.

Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng

:12:58.:13:02.

Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,

:13:03.:13:06.

was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.

:13:07.:13:08.

Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.

:13:09.:13:10.

There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.

:13:11.:13:12.

The leadership team denied any such briefing.

:13:13.:13:16.

But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,

:13:17.:13:23.

the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been

:13:24.:13:25.

The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that

:13:26.:13:33.

Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.

:13:34.:13:36.

Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.

:13:37.:13:38.

What then followed was a raft of resignations.

:13:39.:13:43.

The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.

:13:44.:13:46.

Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme

:13:47.:13:48.

I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.

:13:49.:13:52.

I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,

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that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.

:13:56.:13:58.

Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,

:13:59.:14:00.

undoubtedly they will do that about me.

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Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones

:14:03.:14:04.

Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also

:14:05.:14:11.

We have had a few junior members resign today

:14:12.:14:14.

and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow

:14:15.:14:18.

right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around

:14:19.:14:20.

I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.

:14:21.:14:28.

Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.

:14:29.:14:31.

By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,

:14:32.:14:33.

I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's

:14:34.:14:36.

Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy

:14:37.:14:41.

review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can

:14:42.:14:44.

reveal she now feels she has to resign.

:14:45.:14:48.

I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all

:14:49.:14:51.

the while he had gone to the television studio to call

:14:52.:14:54.

the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right

:14:55.:14:57.

We are all Labour members and we believe in having

:14:58.:15:02.

That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,

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and I do not want to be on the television talking

:15:07.:15:09.

about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have

:15:10.:15:13.

no other choice now but to stand up and say,

:15:14.:15:16.

this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting

:15:17.:15:20.

The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.

:15:21.:15:24.

It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.

:15:25.:15:29.

But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.

:15:30.:15:32.

The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had

:15:33.:15:34.

threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.

:15:35.:15:38.

Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.

:15:39.:15:42.

What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,

:15:43.:15:45.

not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,

:15:46.:15:48.

and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?

:15:49.:15:51.

This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.

:15:52.:15:54.

One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this

:15:55.:15:57.

Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused

:15:58.:16:03.

on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking

:16:04.:16:05.

It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.

:16:06.:16:10.

Actually, can I have a coffee instead?

:16:11.:16:15.

We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,

:16:16.:16:19.

Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael

:16:20.:16:30.

Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good

:16:31.:16:36.

to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.

:16:37.:16:40.

How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about

:16:41.:16:46.

the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think

:16:47.:16:49.

that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody

:16:50.:16:52.

will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful

:16:53.:16:57.

to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick

:16:58.:17:01.

through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line

:17:02.:17:05.

under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,

:17:06.:17:10.

to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task

:17:11.:17:15.

and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision

:17:16.:17:18.

and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we

:17:19.:17:23.

have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree

:17:24.:17:26.

the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme

:17:27.:17:33.

of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was

:17:34.:17:37.

incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week

:17:38.:17:41.

have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.

:17:42.:17:44.

You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he

:17:45.:17:50.

incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will

:17:51.:17:53.

serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done

:17:54.:17:56.

over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened

:17:57.:18:03.

this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is

:18:04.:18:08.

a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a

:18:09.:18:15.

broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and

:18:16.:18:18.

together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not

:18:19.:18:23.

just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is

:18:24.:18:27.

in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That

:18:28.:18:33.

is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the

:18:34.:18:37.

Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under

:18:38.:18:39.

last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow

:18:40.:18:49.

Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn

:18:50.:18:55.

into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11

:18:56.:18:59.

Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been

:19:00.:19:04.

named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here

:19:05.:19:10.

political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet

:19:11.:19:19.

remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.

:19:20.:19:23.

This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party

:19:24.:19:27.

and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the

:19:28.:19:32.

Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn

:19:33.:19:36.

bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy

:19:37.:19:41.

Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not

:19:42.:19:47.

my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the

:19:48.:19:51.

Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them

:19:52.:19:55.

is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,

:19:56.:20:01.

and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at

:20:02.:20:05.

the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let

:20:06.:20:12.

me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she

:20:13.:20:16.

has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and

:20:17.:20:21.

always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident

:20:22.:20:25.

review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is

:20:26.:20:30.

obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear

:20:31.:20:36.

deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we

:20:37.:20:41.

will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is

:20:42.:20:45.

a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I

:20:46.:20:51.

think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear

:20:52.:20:58.

deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that

:20:59.:21:02.

Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear

:21:03.:21:08.

disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this

:21:09.:21:11.

process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident

:21:12.:21:16.

at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet

:21:17.:21:21.

about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my

:21:22.:21:27.

experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as

:21:28.:21:31.

everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument

:21:32.:21:36.

and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try

:21:37.:21:40.

to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the

:21:41.:21:46.

trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes

:21:47.:21:49.

and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience

:21:50.:21:55.

that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear

:21:56.:22:00.

arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament

:22:01.:22:04.

tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of

:22:05.:22:08.

Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out

:22:09.:22:13.

for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I

:22:14.:22:21.

would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.

:22:22.:22:29.

If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's

:22:30.:22:33.

position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in

:22:34.:22:39.

the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion

:22:40.:22:44.

we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very

:22:45.:22:47.

surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was

:22:48.:22:53.

one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see

:22:54.:22:57.

when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am

:22:58.:23:03.

doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to

:23:04.:23:07.

elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You

:23:08.:23:13.

either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be

:23:14.:23:19.

on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop

:23:20.:23:24.

playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are

:23:25.:23:32.

reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor

:23:33.:23:36.

already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to

:23:37.:23:41.

policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National

:23:42.:23:46.

Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive

:23:47.:23:51.

committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to

:23:52.:23:56.

happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on

:23:57.:24:01.

the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders

:24:02.:24:05.

of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be

:24:06.:24:08.

made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We

:24:09.:24:14.

have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive

:24:15.:24:21.

Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got

:24:22.:24:25.

a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with

:24:26.:24:29.

outside experts and party members and the public and it could be

:24:30.:24:33.

improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we

:24:34.:24:39.

have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right

:24:40.:24:44.

policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to

:24:45.:24:51.

be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow

:24:52.:24:53.

Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a

:24:54.:25:00.

right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right

:25:01.:25:05.

or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we

:25:06.:25:11.

have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name

:25:12.:25:14.

calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is

:25:15.:25:19.

to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues

:25:20.:25:22.

around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40

:25:23.:25:27.

years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents

:25:28.:25:31.

expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is

:25:32.:25:35.

anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this

:25:36.:25:40.

internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is

:25:41.:25:48.

what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies

:25:49.:25:51.

for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an

:25:52.:25:56.

answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour

:25:57.:26:00.

Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just

:26:01.:26:06.

had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the

:26:07.:26:10.

economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the

:26:11.:26:15.

crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is

:26:16.:26:18.

making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite

:26:19.:26:22.

of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you

:26:23.:26:28.

disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned

:26:29.:26:33.

from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because

:26:34.:26:37.

Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many

:26:38.:26:41.

years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing

:26:42.:26:47.

campaigner on issues of child poverty and international

:26:48.:26:49.

development and how we can change the economy to make it work for

:26:50.:26:54.

working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to

:26:55.:26:58.

the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective

:26:59.:27:02.

parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing

:27:03.:27:06.

she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to

:27:07.:27:12.

move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire

:27:13.:27:15.

knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that

:27:16.:27:20.

is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily

:27:21.:27:26.

Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm

:27:27.:27:31.

which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations

:27:32.:27:35.

against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words

:27:36.:27:40.

of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she

:27:41.:27:44.

returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know

:27:45.:27:49.

about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given

:27:50.:27:53.

or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and

:27:54.:27:57.

you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.

:27:58.:28:01.

Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.

:28:02.:28:05.

Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement

:28:06.:28:10.

a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,

:28:11.:28:12.

It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments

:28:13.:28:16.

and operations and the Government argues

:28:17.:28:18.

So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?

:28:19.:28:21.

The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.

:28:22.:28:28.

The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished

:28:29.:28:32.

medical school but are not consultants yet.

:28:33.:28:35.

It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas

:28:36.:28:38.

to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,

:28:39.:28:43.

and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.

:28:44.:28:53.

It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,

:28:54.:28:56.

which actually, I think that ambition is shared

:28:57.:28:58.

across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,

:28:59.:29:01.

and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,

:29:02.:29:03.

the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office

:29:04.:29:06.

for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,

:29:07.:29:10.

so I think they were absolutely right to start this

:29:11.:29:12.

But the doctors are furious about it.

:29:13.:29:17.

Both sides have been negotiating for months,

:29:18.:29:19.

most recently on Friday, when the gap between them

:29:20.:29:22.

Let's look at some of the concessions made

:29:23.:29:30.

They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.

:29:31.:29:35.

Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not

:29:36.:29:38.

But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.

:29:39.:29:44.

The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called

:29:45.:29:46.

guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work

:29:47.:29:49.

They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,

:29:50.:29:56.

and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see

:29:57.:29:59.

Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,

:30:00.:30:05.

but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating

:30:06.:30:08.

team who told me that the number of unresolved issues

:30:09.:30:10.

Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.

:30:11.:30:16.

She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior

:30:17.:30:19.

doctors who will follow in her footsteps.

:30:20.:30:22.

They will probably find themselves working more weekends,

:30:23.:30:24.

They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible

:30:25.:30:32.

with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives

:30:33.:30:35.

of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children

:30:36.:30:39.

in school, and they would struggle with that.

:30:40.:30:43.

It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,

:30:44.:30:46.

erratic working hours, is proven not to be good

:30:47.:30:49.

for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that

:30:50.:30:52.

If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood

:30:53.:30:58.

that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge

:30:59.:31:01.

More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along

:31:02.:31:06.

It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior

:31:07.:31:10.

On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only

:31:11.:31:14.

Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors

:31:15.:31:20.

This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir

:31:21.:31:31.

One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not

:31:32.:31:37.

seeing the real problems in the health service.

:31:38.:31:43.

There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,

:31:44.:31:46.

this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough

:31:47.:31:48.

staff to deal with the demands in A

:31:49.:31:51.

There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health

:31:52.:31:54.

service, A doctors are leaving the health service.

:31:55.:31:57.

These are the key issues which need to be addressed,

:31:58.:32:01.

and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation

:32:02.:32:04.

or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government

:32:05.:32:07.

Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way

:32:08.:32:20.

But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers

:32:21.:32:23.

Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,

:32:24.:32:27.

the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither

:32:28.:32:29.

But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary

:32:30.:32:34.

He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.

:32:35.:32:42.

Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a

:32:43.:32:51.

fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke

:32:52.:32:57.

hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a

:32:58.:33:02.

long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating

:33:03.:33:05.

parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for

:33:06.:33:12.

this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the

:33:13.:33:15.

negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just

:33:16.:33:20.

highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.

:33:21.:33:27.

The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of

:33:28.:33:34.

strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the

:33:35.:33:36.

negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on

:33:37.:33:43.

within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay

:33:44.:33:47.

negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.

:33:48.:33:52.

There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government

:33:53.:33:56.

to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We

:33:57.:34:02.

have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess

:34:03.:34:06.

mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part

:34:07.:34:10.

of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared

:34:11.:34:16.

by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on

:34:17.:34:21.

strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend

:34:22.:34:24.

deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is

:34:25.:34:31.

right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that

:34:32.:34:36.

is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that

:34:37.:34:43.

shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That

:34:44.:34:48.

is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the

:34:49.:34:51.

health service and the management leaders and the government from a

:34:52.:34:56.

policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the

:34:57.:35:00.

report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to

:35:01.:35:04.

determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and

:35:05.:35:09.

it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the

:35:10.:35:14.

Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not

:35:15.:35:19.

using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of

:35:20.:35:23.

patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We

:35:24.:35:30.

know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should

:35:31.:35:35.

we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps

:35:36.:35:40.

the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly

:35:41.:35:44.

unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS

:35:45.:35:47.

unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS

:35:48.:35:49.

without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the

:35:50.:35:55.

government announced in the comprehensive spending review before

:35:56.:36:00.

Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS

:36:01.:36:04.

ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is

:36:05.:36:10.

unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care

:36:11.:36:14.

services we want in our country without addressing some of the

:36:15.:36:18.

fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also

:36:19.:36:22.

about joining up the different elements of the health and social

:36:23.:36:27.

care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio

:36:28.:36:30.

on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different

:36:31.:36:36.

subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we

:36:37.:36:39.

need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,

:36:40.:36:45.

which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a

:36:46.:36:48.

review of the funding and structure of health and care services.

:36:49.:36:54.

The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on

:36:55.:37:00.

health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not

:37:01.:37:04.

financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of

:37:05.:37:10.

GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we

:37:11.:37:15.

spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These

:37:16.:37:22.

other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are

:37:23.:37:25.

closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope

:37:26.:37:36.

to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work

:37:37.:37:40.

in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health

:37:41.:37:45.

service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I

:37:46.:37:50.

say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely

:37:51.:37:54.

one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be

:37:55.:37:58.

addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned

:37:59.:38:02.

this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.

:38:03.:38:07.

Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what

:38:08.:38:12.

is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland

:38:13.:38:17.

devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around

:38:18.:38:22.

excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we

:38:23.:38:27.

do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that

:38:28.:38:32.

we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on

:38:33.:38:36.

spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the

:38:37.:38:40.

world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend

:38:41.:38:44.

more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move

:38:45.:38:49.

away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of

:38:50.:38:54.

the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across

:38:55.:39:02.

health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing

:39:03.:39:06.

your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go

:39:07.:39:07.

on. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:39:08.:39:21.

in Northern Ireland. The day before she's expected

:39:22.:39:24.

to become First Minister, we look at the challenges

:39:25.:39:27.

facing Arlene Foster. In this year of centenaries,

:39:28.:39:30.

is there a way to commemorate both the Easter Rising and the Somme that

:39:31.:39:33.

will please all sides? And with me throughout

:39:34.:39:38.

the programme with their thoughts are the journalists

:39:39.:39:40.

Allison Morris and Sam McBride. Tomorrow Arlene Foster is expected

:39:41.:39:47.

to officially become First Minister. The Fermanagh MLA became party

:39:48.:39:52.

leader before Christmas and says she's humbled to be

:39:53.:39:55.

following in the footsteps So what should she be concentrating

:39:56.:39:57.

on in the weeks ahead? Our Political Correspondent,

:39:58.:40:02.

Stephen Walker, has been considering what should be

:40:03.:40:04.

in the First Minister's in-tray. Thank you for the confidence and you

:40:05.:40:32.

have shown in the. Thank you for the opportunity you have given me. Our

:40:33.:40:38.

new First Minister will be Arlene Foster. Margaret Thatcher was known

:40:39.:40:45.

as the iron Lady, and Arlene will be no other no ironing lady. By all

:40:46.:40:49.

accounts, Arlene Foster has a good sense of humour and she will need

:40:50.:40:54.

it. From now on, she will be the number one target of comedians and

:40:55.:40:59.

cartoonists. From tomorrow, everything stops at her office. So

:41:00.:41:05.

as to thousands 16 and false, what can we realistically expect from the

:41:06.:41:10.

new First Minister? How things be different, Sammy Wilson could have

:41:11.:41:13.

been preparing this weekend for his first day as First Minister, but he

:41:14.:41:18.

decided not to challenge Arlene Foster. Instead, he offers her with

:41:19.:41:25.

advice. She has a fairly daunting task. The Assembly doesn't have a

:41:26.:41:30.

great image, partly because of its own behaviour and the way the media

:41:31.:41:35.

has treated some of its successors. The first thing she must do is try

:41:36.:41:39.

between now and the election to get a lot of positives for the Assembly.

:41:40.:41:45.

What can we expect from Arlene Foster? Some say she now has an

:41:46.:41:49.

opportunity to be very different from their predecessors. Her biggest

:41:50.:41:56.

hurdles will be first reaching out and being perfectly in command of

:41:57.:42:00.

her only Unionism, reaching out to nationalism and saying she means it.

:42:01.:42:06.

She has said that, she has said it is ridiculous not to. Her other one

:42:07.:42:10.

is going to be managing the party. Managing it in a positive way rather

:42:11.:42:14.

than a negative way, rather than just keeping down dissent. She

:42:15.:42:19.

doesn't need to do that. The months ahead, Foster will want to see

:42:20.:42:23.

Lieberman and Asian of the French -- fresh start agreement. Education is

:42:24.:42:29.

also a priority as you push for investment and prioritise job

:42:30.:42:31.

creation. But aside from the wider economic issues, Mays Assembly

:42:32.:42:38.

elections loom large. She does not want to spend me the six touring

:42:39.:42:42.

studios and explaining why the DUP as last six or seven seats. They

:42:43.:42:47.

will not be -- fall behind Sinn Fein, she does not want after

:42:48.:42:50.

spending the day doing that. She was to come back and say yes, new

:42:51.:42:55.

leader, new party, new conditions. We did extraordinarily well. That is

:42:56.:42:58.

the only thing she has to say, because when she does that, the

:42:59.:43:02.

party is settled, it is her party. At the many, it is not entirely

:43:03.:43:06.

hers, she has to prove herself. If she does that may the sick, she can

:43:07.:43:17.

do anything she likes after that. So will and bolts of Government.

:43:18.:43:22.

Therefore, I think people will be prepared to give her trust in the

:43:23.:43:27.

months ahead. To some, Foster is more than a politician. They see her

:43:28.:43:30.

as somebody who can inspire other women to enter public life. I think

:43:31.:43:35.

it is something Arlene Foster should definitely concentrate on. There are

:43:36.:43:38.

women in her party and elsewhere who she could encourage and she should

:43:39.:43:45.

do that. Do you think she will? It will be a big mistake if she didn't

:43:46.:43:50.

I think. I think people expect that of her, it is new style, new

:43:51.:43:55.

leadership and a new DUP with her on board. And she has tremendous

:43:56.:44:01.

opportunities to make change. All leaders are judged by results and

:44:02.:44:05.

Arlene Foster will be no difference. A political honeymoon will be brief.

:44:06.:44:09.

Polling day is just four months away.

:44:10.:44:11.

Stephen Walker taking a peek at Arlene Foster's "to do" list.

:44:12.:44:14.

And joining me with their thoughts are journalists Sam McBride

:44:15.:44:16.

Allison, will the DUP look different to the Catholic/Nationalist

:44:17.:44:20.

I think at this point of the relationship between Peter Robinson

:44:21.:44:31.

and Sinn Fein had failed to such a point, she has low starting point

:44:32.:44:35.

she can only do better. But as a leader, her main priority... We

:44:36.:44:42.

almost had to DUP is at one point. What she needs to do is put the

:44:43.:44:47.

legacy Peter Robinson behind her. She does not want to be seen as just

:44:48.:44:51.

following on from him, she needs to make a stamp. Before she attempts to

:44:52.:44:57.

reach out to Nationalists, she needs to unite her own party and quell any

:44:58.:45:08.

dissent. She said there were not two wings within the party. How do she

:45:09.:45:13.

hold of the religious or secular elements of the DUP together must

:45:14.:45:18.

remark I think between now and the next election, she will be quite

:45:19.:45:22.

staid and conservative in how she manages the party. It is about

:45:23.:45:27.

getting as many seats back as possible. After the election, there

:45:28.:45:29.

is a period of about three years when there is no election and that

:45:30.:45:33.

is when we will see the real Arlene Foster and what she's made of and

:45:34.:45:38.

where she was to take the party. Can she hold that call, keep the core

:45:39.:45:42.

elements of the DUP happy while at the same time trying to reach out to

:45:43.:45:50.

the non-court voters? There are two potential areas where she can reach

:45:51.:45:54.

out. She can reach at a Catholics or people who might be persuaded to

:45:55.:46:00.

move from the best all Peter Unionist party which Peter Robinson

:46:01.:46:05.

has suggested he would try to do and failed in any meaningful way. Or she

:46:06.:46:09.

can try to reach out to liberal Protestant unionist people who are

:46:10.:46:11.

turned off by issues such as abortion and gay marriage and

:46:12.:46:16.

potentially, I think, we could see rather than any softening of the DUP

:46:17.:46:20.

on constitutional issues, we could see a softening in terms of social

:46:21.:46:26.

issues, not in terms of Foster's supporting abortion, but perhaps

:46:27.:46:28.

moving to a position where they don't take a position on it. If she

:46:29.:46:35.

tries to reach out to Catholic nationalist voters, people who vote

:46:36.:46:39.

for the SDLP, what kind of response do you think she will get? And Peter

:46:40.:46:50.

Robinson said he was going to try and reach out, he refused to engage

:46:51.:46:54.

with us in any way, so that was hardly indicative of someone trying

:46:55.:46:58.

to reach out to Nationalists. It will be interesting to see, Arlene

:46:59.:47:02.

will appeal to strong women who are looking for direction in the social

:47:03.:47:06.

issues. She has already made clear that her stance on things such as

:47:07.:47:11.

gay marriage and soft issues on the different than what Peter Robinson's

:47:12.:47:16.

were. Some have suggested the flags protest killed off the DUP's attempt

:47:17.:47:23.

to reach out? She's not Belfast -based, so she's not tainted with

:47:24.:47:28.

the stigma of the flag protest. That was a Belfast protest, let's face

:47:29.:47:34.

it. She comes fresh from that, so Nationalists don't connect in any

:47:35.:47:39.

way to those protests. One of the significant issues is that we have a

:47:40.:47:43.

leader of the union who is not a member of Orange Order. That is very

:47:44.:47:52.

sick and if it can. She is also from a rural Protestant unionist

:47:53.:47:58.

community and will not instinctively be very supportive of some of the

:47:59.:48:04.

antics we have seen in Belfast. Allison, do you expect to promote

:48:05.:48:09.

women? While, Margaret Thatcher pushed women down, but I like to

:48:10.:48:12.

think Arlene Foster would and you can already see a change in

:48:13.:48:16.

leadership around the DUP coming up through the back of the ranks and I

:48:17.:48:20.

would like to see them pushed to the front.

:48:21.:48:23.

The new year saw the start of the Republic's official

:48:24.:48:25.

commemorations of the Easter Rising centenary.

:48:26.:48:27.

Later in the year the Battle of the Somme's 100th anniversary

:48:28.:48:30.

In a moment I'll be asking two historians how they view those key

:48:31.:48:36.

But first, here's the Irish Minister with responsibility for the year

:48:37.:48:40.

of centenaries, Heather Humphreys, speaking to BBC Newsline's Mark

:48:41.:48:42.

As you know, I am an Ulster woman and I come from a Presbyterian

:48:43.:48:55.

family, so I am conscious of the sensitivities and I fully understand

:48:56.:49:01.

that how people may be concerned about it. But I have been a very

:49:02.:49:04.

keen that these commemorations would be respectful and it is about

:49:05.:49:10.

commemorating what happened in 1916 but also about reflecting on an

:49:11.:49:15.

Ireland in the last century and looking ambitiously to the future.

:49:16.:49:18.

As well as that, the Government had planned a comprehensive Somme

:49:19.:49:24.

commemoration, because, as I know and we all know, so many Ulster men

:49:25.:49:29.

and indeed Irish men right across the whole of Ireland lost their

:49:30.:49:33.

lives in the battle of the Somme. We will also commemorate those events.

:49:34.:49:37.

This is a great opportunity for us to come together, reflects our

:49:38.:49:41.

shared history and there is so much of our history in 1916 and that is

:49:42.:49:45.

intertwined and that has been revealed through World War I

:49:46.:49:49.

commemorations, so we will all look together at the past, but what is

:49:50.:49:52.

important is we look ambitiously to the future.

:49:53.:49:55.

With me now are the historians Lord Bew and Dr Marie Coleman.

:49:56.:49:58.

Paul Bew, the Rising was a key part of the history of this whole island.

:49:59.:50:01.

Why do Unionists seem reluctant to engage with this anniversary?

:50:02.:50:11.

You must remember that constitutional nationalism also

:50:12.:50:17.

condemned the rising, the Democratic leadership of nationalist Ireland

:50:18.:50:20.

condemned it and there is a crucial question of the appeal to allies in

:50:21.:50:25.

Germany. So it control of it be rising that unionist even today

:50:26.:50:35.

remain it in a condemnatory mode. It raises great difficulties about

:50:36.:50:37.

historical understanding and what it means. It would be a good thing if

:50:38.:50:41.

Unionists could accept at least a partial element of response ability.

:50:42.:50:46.

They were the first to bring gunners interisland, but not the first to

:50:47.:50:50.

use them and it is ridiculous to say that Irish Republicans needed the

:50:51.:50:56.

example of Unionists. But it would be a good thing if there was some

:50:57.:51:02.

understanding of the conflict and of the role that Unionists also played.

:51:03.:51:05.

This doesn't in any way involved them in saying he was a good thing,

:51:06.:51:09.

it was in many respects a disaster, particularly for Catholics in the

:51:10.:51:13.

North and created a harsher partition and was economically a

:51:14.:51:17.

much harsher life for two generations of Irish people. They

:51:18.:51:21.

were all consequences of the rising and are much more sectarian society

:51:22.:51:24.

come all consequences of the rising for which unionist are not

:51:25.:51:30.

responsible. Marie, but would be the smart way for unionist to approach

:51:31.:51:39.

the commemoration? Nationalists will find themselves in a similar

:51:40.:51:42.

position in five years when it comes to commemorating the setting up of

:51:43.:51:45.

Northern Ireland. Taking a longer term into account would be a good

:51:46.:51:49.

idea to start with. I've been impressed with the number of

:51:50.:51:52.

references that Arlene Foster has made to 1916 and I think her initial

:51:53.:52:03.

speech at the New Year talking about engaging and reflecting on the

:52:04.:52:07.

rising is quite important. It is a good sign and likewise, there is a

:52:08.:52:13.

willingness in Unionism to engage with a historic significance of the

:52:14.:52:19.

Rising. She quoted recently that she would be taking part in an of the

:52:20.:52:23.

events as part of this so-called commemoration? I kind of language

:52:24.:52:30.

doesn't strike some people as being particularly liberal? I caught the

:52:31.:52:38.

reference, and I know she has been painted as backtracking from her

:52:39.:52:40.

initial statement at the New Year, but I don't think she has. I think

:52:41.:52:45.

she is still reflecting the significance and prepared to engage

:52:46.:52:48.

with the significance of the Rising, but I do think anyone could

:52:49.:52:52.

legitimately expect to attend the set piece parades that will be

:52:53.:52:55.

taking place in Dublin on Easter Sunday. It is a challenge for

:52:56.:53:02.

Unionists, Paul, I don't know what your thoughts are on what Arlene

:53:03.:53:06.

Foster said, but she has said she will not take part representing

:53:07.:53:09.

Northern Ireland as the First Minister in those particular events.

:53:10.:53:11.

Magnus Pitt said he will organise -- Mike Nesbitt is organise --

:53:12.:53:19.

suggesting his party in the Republic

:53:20.:53:21.

to mark the occasion. in many respects, if you look at the

:53:22.:53:32.

rhetoric of the Rising, it is followers into the post office and

:53:33.:53:35.

you will have a country of 20 million Irish speaking. What you

:53:36.:53:44.

actually get, and it's almost inevitable once rigid use a gun into

:53:45.:53:47.

Irish politics, is rigid as a country of 2 million

:53:48.:53:50.

English-speaking, a harsher partition, Ireland becomes

:53:51.:53:56.

overtaxed, and what you actually get is you have to cut your own age --

:53:57.:54:01.

old-age pensioners soon as you get an independent Irish Government. So

:54:02.:54:05.

the Independent and economical project if taken seriously is

:54:06.:54:08.

dishonest and in many respects a radical failure. This isn't to say

:54:09.:54:11.

there is not the bravery and sincerity on the part of people at

:54:12.:54:15.

the Rising, but there doesn't seem to be anything to be afraid of

:54:16.:54:19.

intellectually for Unionists to engage with. The downside of the

:54:20.:54:24.

Rising is dramatic and the worst downside is that any small group of

:54:25.:54:27.

self appointed people can say I define Irish is true, I will get the

:54:28.:54:31.

gun and I'm like the men of 1916, it doesn't matter what the men are

:54:32.:54:36.

voting for. It is also a challenge for Sinn Fein who are running own

:54:37.:54:40.

commemorative events. It seems to be painting itself other national --

:54:41.:54:58.

natural air. -- natural heir. The Sinn Fein of 1916 was not the

:54:59.:55:02.

Republican Sinn Fein that would emerge in 1917. If Irish parties are

:55:03.:55:06.

fighting over the legitimate legacy of the rising, it will be the Irish

:55:07.:55:10.

Labour Party who may be ahead of the queue to claim that legacy. Sinn

:55:11.:55:16.

Fein are our position. We saw this last year as well, on one hand, they

:55:17.:55:21.

are going into an election which be held in advance of the

:55:22.:55:24.

commemorations and you can't understand the importance of these

:55:25.:55:27.

commemorations without seeing him in the context of that election. On the

:55:28.:55:31.

one hand, they're going into it and playing a full part in Parliament

:55:32.:55:35.

politics, spiralling to being in Government in the south, but at the

:55:36.:55:36.

same time, the by-elections fought were

:55:37.:56:24.

weakening but still have the support of Irish Nationalists. That was Sinn

:56:25.:56:30.

Fein's argument 100 years ago. This time, there is no problem, they say

:56:31.:56:34.

they will extend its for a year even though that gives exactly the same

:56:35.:56:40.

argument, that the men of 1916 had. Your mandate has run out, we are

:56:41.:56:45.

entitled to use our gunner. It is a curious thing. People claim to being

:56:46.:56:49.

chewed with Irish history and think deeply about it, most people are

:56:50.:56:54.

claiming it is not in Schumann at all that interesting resonances.

:56:55.:57:10.

The Somme commemoration is approaching. What are the pitfalls

:57:11.:57:19.

there? Proper respect has been paid to the many people who are Catholic

:57:20.:57:23.

and nationalist communities who lost their lives and indeed I curl up in

:57:24.:57:27.

the, absolutely gym article is so in the summer of 1915.

:57:28.:57:58.

It was said there was hardly a family in Northern Ireland who did

:57:59.:58:06.

not have a loss of life. Marie, you mentioned percent scene of the

:58:07.:58:10.

foundation of the state of Northern Ireland. What about the Somme? About

:58:11.:58:16.

how it is marked by Unionists and those who are not from the unionist

:58:17.:58:21.

background? When you look at previous commemorations, what was

:58:22.:58:25.

missing was the conferences approach to 1916 and Irish Government will be

:58:26.:58:29.

marking the Somme as well. Unionists could look at aspects of the 1916

:58:30.:58:35.

commemorations in Ireland which will also mark the Irish men who joined

:58:36.:58:42.

the rising. -- Rising. I want the Irish Government to be more

:58:43.:58:43.

inclusive this time. Let's pause for a look back

:58:44.:58:45.

at the political week gone past With flooding causing huge problems,

:58:46.:59:01.

three executive ministers met to discuss hell up. We all different

:59:02.:59:06.

ideas as ministers, and we will discuss in next week and take on how

:59:07.:59:12.

we can help people. Simon Hamilton named the panel to shape the future

:59:13.:59:17.

of health care. This is a massive next step in terms of taking forward

:59:18.:59:23.

recommendations. We want to learn from other experiences elsewhere and

:59:24.:59:26.

take expert advice for outside Northern Ireland. Will these teams

:59:27.:59:34.

be going to Belfast City Hall? It is a unique situation. Tonight we will

:59:35.:59:40.

hold an event that logistically will be difficult. Tributes were paid to

:59:41.:59:45.

Liam Clarke, he was a Sunday Politics regular who died at

:59:46.:59:53.

Christmas. STL P veteran said he was leading the Assembly. -- SDLP.

:59:54.:00:01.

We're certainly all the poorer for Liam Clarke's passing and he'll

:00:02.:00:03.

The final fought -- thoughts from Alison and Samba. Difficult is about

:00:04.:00:25.

the outgoing Sinn Fein... It is a lesson not just the politicians but

:00:26.:00:30.

for us all and that so most people. But we were seen by 167 people which

:00:31.:00:37.

is only up for an hour could end up costing a small fortune. It was a

:00:38.:00:42.

monumental a stupid thing to have done and it took a long to

:00:43.:00:47.

apologise. It shed some light on why Sinn Fein deselected Fine Gael, he

:00:48.:00:52.

has done one gaffe too many to be reselected. It is a lesson for us

:00:53.:01:05.

all. On one hand, but do say on Twitter account the views are my

:01:06.:01:12.

own, but it doesn't mind -- mean you can say things you wouldn't

:01:13.:01:16.

necessarily say in the newspaper. If I tweet something, I think what I

:01:17.:01:20.

put it in my column, if not, I wouldn't put it on Twitter. Your

:01:21.:01:25.

thoughts on the discussion we have just tired in challengers for the

:01:26.:01:33.

parties about the Easter Rising and the Somme? Politicians are getting

:01:34.:01:36.

dragged in the most upper part in it, particularly south of the border

:01:37.:01:39.

where it is about the foundation of the state. People will learn a lot

:01:40.:01:44.

more lessons. There are lessons for all sides. There is not moral

:01:45.:01:48.

equivalence between all the side that took part, there are a lot of

:01:49.:01:56.

books in the last year about it, more so than politicians getting

:01:57.:01:59.

dragged into it. Both of those events involve all the people of

:02:00.:02:03.

this Ireland and the shaped -- and it shaped the Ireland we live and

:02:04.:02:07.

now. Everyone should be invested rather than take ownership of one

:02:08.:02:09.

side or the other. And you can hear an interview

:02:10.:02:10.

with Arlene Foster on BBC Radio and beget affordable to Londoners to

:02:11.:02:14.

buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister

:02:15.:02:24.

is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,

:02:25.:02:30.

replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought

:02:31.:02:33.

in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's

:02:34.:02:38.

pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,

:02:39.:02:40.

many built after the war, where people can feel

:02:41.:02:49.

trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good

:02:50.:02:51.

life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government

:02:52.:02:54.

money but with massive private sector and perhaps

:02:55.:02:57.

pension sector help, demolish the worst of these

:02:58.:03:01.

and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can

:03:02.:03:03.

have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for

:03:04.:03:16.

this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100

:03:17.:03:21.

sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.

:03:22.:03:26.

Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster

:03:27.:03:29.

what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind

:03:30.:03:35.

it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began

:03:36.:03:39.

his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his

:03:40.:03:52.

premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a

:03:53.:03:55.

rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor

:03:56.:03:57.

people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and

:03:58.:04:00.

modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is

:04:01.:04:03.

only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly

:04:04.:04:06.

amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When

:04:07.:04:12.

you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism

:04:13.:04:18.

whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?

:04:19.:04:22.

Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable

:04:23.:04:29.

rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not

:04:30.:04:33.

affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime

:04:34.:04:37.

Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned

:04:38.:04:45.

pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to

:04:46.:04:48.

infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in

:04:49.:04:52.

these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their

:04:53.:04:56.

sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the

:04:57.:05:01.

report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in

:05:02.:05:07.

so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower

:05:08.:05:11.

blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,

:05:12.:05:17.

but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw

:05:18.:05:21.

the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front

:05:22.:05:25.

page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that

:05:26.:05:29.

inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner

:05:30.:05:34.

cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there

:05:35.:05:38.

has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they

:05:39.:05:43.

think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these

:05:44.:05:53.

hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about

:05:54.:05:55.

rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's

:05:56.:06:00.

monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and

:06:01.:06:05.

let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would

:06:06.:06:08.

be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them

:06:09.:06:14.

at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in

:06:15.:06:17.

Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an

:06:18.:06:21.

Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend

:06:22.:06:27.

less time in the office, they might have to break them

:06:28.:06:30.

because 2016 is going to keep them busy.

:06:31.:06:32.

The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,

:06:33.:06:35.

will dominate the political landscape.

:06:36.:06:37.

David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,

:06:38.:06:39.

but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,

:06:40.:06:42.

The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May

:06:43.:06:53.

will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first

:06:54.:06:55.

In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out

:06:56.:07:01.

But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -

:07:02.:07:06.

And in the local elections there are predictions Labour

:07:07.:07:12.

could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.

:07:13.:07:15.

Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.

:07:16.:07:19.

London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining

:07:20.:07:22.

a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.

:07:23.:07:25.

Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may

:07:26.:07:28.

finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion

:07:29.:07:31.

Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global

:07:32.:07:37.

slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England

:07:38.:07:40.

And come the summer, we should finally find out

:07:41.:07:47.

what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.

:07:48.:07:52.

Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is

:07:53.:07:59.

this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,

:08:00.:08:04.

it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a

:08:05.:08:08.

possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This

:08:09.:08:13.

becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it

:08:14.:08:19.

will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power

:08:20.:08:24.

and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an

:08:25.:08:27.

existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so

:08:28.:08:33.

forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the

:08:34.:08:38.

Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so

:08:39.:08:42.

excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory

:08:43.:08:47.

party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I

:08:48.:08:57.

would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It

:08:58.:09:07.

was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this

:09:08.:09:13.

as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this

:09:14.:09:19.

would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for

:09:20.:09:24.

about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime

:09:25.:09:28.

Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to

:09:29.:09:32.

campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that

:09:33.:09:36.

the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into

:09:37.:09:41.

a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the

:09:42.:09:46.

tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will

:09:47.:09:50.

not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other

:09:51.:09:57.

side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they

:09:58.:10:05.

see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be

:10:06.:10:09.

right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help

:10:10.:10:13.

themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.

:10:14.:10:18.

It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is

:10:19.:10:24.

Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this

:10:25.:10:30.

year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the

:10:31.:10:34.

front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country

:10:35.:10:38.

might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not

:10:39.:10:42.

the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was

:10:43.:10:47.

demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first

:10:48.:10:51.

place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by

:10:52.:10:55.

actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves

:10:56.:11:00.

believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some

:11:01.:11:04.

prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the

:11:05.:11:13.

Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and

:11:14.:11:18.

they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the

:11:19.:11:23.

results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the

:11:24.:11:28.

centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will

:11:29.:11:35.

make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can

:11:36.:11:37.

reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good

:11:38.:11:44.

year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in

:11:45.:11:51.

government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor

:11:52.:11:56.

elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to

:11:57.:11:59.

say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I

:12:00.:12:06.

do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election

:12:07.:12:07.

results sense is even if the election

:12:08.:12:09.

results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are

:12:10.:12:16.

as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in

:12:17.:12:20.

Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident

:12:21.:12:22.

policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the

:12:23.:12:35.

Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the

:12:36.:12:38.

National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so

:12:39.:12:43.

they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos

:12:44.:12:47.

looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --

:12:48.:12:55.

Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections

:12:56.:13:01.

do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative

:13:02.:13:07.

that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the

:13:08.:13:11.

Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without

:13:12.:13:19.

question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime

:13:20.:13:24.

Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.

:13:25.:13:29.

The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next

:13:30.:13:34.

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.

:13:35.:13:38.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:39.:13:41.

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers discuss EU renegotiation with David Davis, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn with Lucy Powell, and a seven-day health service with NHS Confederation chair Stephen Dorrell. Janan Ganesh of the Financial Times, Helen Lewis of the New Statesman and Nick Watt of the Guardian discuss the papers.


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