10/01/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers discuss EU renegotiation with David Davis, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn with Lucy Powell, and a seven-day health service with Stephen Dorrell.

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David Cameron says he's hopeful for a deal next month


on a new relationship between Britain and the European Union.


Is momentum building for a referendum this summer?


He sacked two ministers, prompting three to resign


but is Jeremy Corbyn in a more powerful position at the end


of a tumultuous week for the Labour Party?


We'll speak to Shadow Cabinet Minister Lucy Powell.


Junior doctors defy Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt


And in Northern Ireland: She's about to take on the role


of First Minister, so what are the main issues facing


Arlene Foster and what kind of relationship will she forge


and we will talking about fares, housing, and whether things


We're ten days into 2016 and we've not sacked them and they've not


resigned yet, so with me, the best and the brightest political


panel in the business, Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.


So David Cameron toured Europe last week continuing his re-negotiation


of Britain's EU membership ahead of the referendum.


He knows that whatever he comes back with will not persuade


So they will be free to campaign for an exit.


But this morning the Prime Minister made it clearer than ever


that he would be campaigning to stay in the EU.


My aim is clear, the best of both worlds for Britain, the massive


prize of sorting out what frustrates us about Europe, but staying in a


reformed Europe. The prize is closer than it was and I will work around


the clock to get that done. The government will not be neutral about


this issue with people on one side or the other, my intention is that


at the conclusion of the negotiation, the Cabinet reaches a


clear recommendation for the British people on what we will do. I hope


that we'll be staying in a reformed European Union, because I have got a


good negotiation for Britain. At that point, clear government


position, members of the Cabinet, ministers with


long-standing, long-held views on a different basis, they will be able


to campaign. And we're joined now


by the eurosceptic Conservative MP, Who should lead the out campaign? I


do not think personalities matter. The Prime Minister matters because


he has a big personality. For the out campaign, you have Nigella


Lawson, other people. No doubt you will have four five Cabinet


ministers. Does it not need to be a better known public figure than


Nigel Lawson, who was Chancellor in the 1980s, or Chris Grayling or even


yourself? No, people will not make their decision on the basis of which


pretty face is leading the campaign. They will make it on one basis


alone, will it be good for my job or bad for my job? The argument will be


about economic is, jobs, not these other bogus numbers that come up, it


will be about my job, is my industry protected? Boris Johnson, Theresa


May? There will be lots of our timid in Westminster, should Boris lead,


it will not matter. What matters is the tactics and strategy. That will


be decided before the conclusion of the negotiation. Nigel Farage has


had a torrid time since the general election, culminating in the


assassination attempt that apparently was not. Is he a


liability to the leave campaign? No, probably not. He has about 3 million


people who are supporting him. Some of them in his party? He is his


party, to a large extent. I do not think is a liability, everyone knows


what he and his party are like. Has he got lots of credibility? It has


slipped backwards since the general election. I do not think the parties


matter. The personalities do not matter. This will be a personal


decision. What percentage of Tory MPs do you reckon we'll leave? It is


a majority, I do not know what the number will be. If you did it


tomorrow and there was no other effect, probably two thirds. Really,


is that including the payroll vote? Yes. So two thirds of the


Conservative Parliamentary party will vote to leave? Yes, if you did


it tomorrow. But you have to be in mind the dynamics. You, like me,


have lived through a lot of prime ministers and ministers returning


from Europe and declaring victory. They arrive on Monday at 330 and


declare their victory. We have no other information. None of it is


published, the decisions had been taken in private with no


journalists. There will be a sort of wave out of that. Out of that, two


thirds will evaporate. Come the day, even 50% of the Conservative Party?


I should think so. How many Cabinet ministers will exercise their right


to campaign to leave? Not more than half a dozen, 56 maybe. I cannot


think of more. Iain Duncan Smith? Iain Duncan Smith, maybe Theresa


May, maybe sad you jab it, certainly Chris Grayling. Maybe Iain Duncan


Smith. What is your reaction this morning to the story that senior


officials in Downing Street are vetting or altering speeches by


ministers to tone down Eurosceptic comments? My speeches go back 20


years or so. Is this the start of the government machine getting


moving? Yes. There are three things David Cameron said that were


important. David Cameron made it plain that the government machine


will go crazy on one side of this side image. It has started. Nothing


unusual in that, by the way. David Cameron might get some sort of deal


which curtails in work benefits for migrants. Is that a game changer,


does it change it his way? He said, or something equally powerful, not


important at all. Why do people come from Romania to hear? They come


because the minimum wage is twice as big as the average wage in Rumania.


And about to get bigger. In 2020, according to the Treasury strategy,


tax credits will not matter, which is why they wanted to abolish them.


In 2020, this whole strategy will be relevant. What is your best guess


for the date of the referendum? Probably September this year. Not in


summer? It might, but they have limitations built into the law. If


they get it through in February, they might get the summer, but I do


not think they will get it through in February. Bear in mind they have


four basic claims, only one of which has really been talked about at the


moment. Some of the others, the parliamentary proposals, the defence


of the city, the euro, all of this, it will either be just words and not


matter, which is weird lips at the moment, or it will be serious. The


city basically needs a veto in European legislation relating to


financial services. If it does not get that, it is meaningless. If


David Cameron loses the referendum, does he have to resign as Prime


Minister? That is the least important question. Is there an


answer? I do not know. Should they? Not necessarily, it depends on how


it goes with the terms. He said this morning there is no plans for a


British exit. This is disgraceful. You have two moderately likely


outcomes. We do not know which will be. There were no plans for Scottish


independence. I suspect there were. There are no plans for the British


exit and that is serious because it is a complicated operation to carry


out if it happens. We will be returning to you, David Davis, thank


you. Nick, there is no doubt that the


Prime Minister is gearing up to campaign disdain with he brings back


from Brussels. Absolutely, he is determined to keep Britain in the


European Union. His official languages that he wants to


renegotiate better terms and if he gets the right deal, he will keep


them, but the mask slip today when Andrew Marr asked about British


exit, the preparations for that, and he said it was not the right answer.


Today, the other interesting things he did was a reprieve is of the


Scottish referendum. He was saying that if you are -- that if you lost


the referendum he would not resign. He wants to get that message out


there because he wants to kill the idea of a link between his future


and the referendum results. With the Scottish referendum, in private they


prepared a resignation later. He made clear to Andrew Marr this


morning that the government machine is not going to be neutral, it will


back David Cameron. That is one of the reasons I would disagree with


David Davis and say that the out campaign needs a big figurehead. You


will have the full weight of an institutional machine behind the yes


vote. On the out said, we have Nigel Farage. He appeals to 3 million


voters, but not a majority. There is a responsible case to be made. That


is why someone like Boris Johnson will be pressured enormously to say


which side he will jump for. If David Davis is right, and at least


50% of the parliamentary party, including the payroll vote is going


to vote to leave, many will campaign to leave, that is a massive problem


for the Conservatives and David Cameron? The problem is especially


acute if the final result is so narrow that the result can be


plausibly attributed to a credible, sitting Conservative Prime Minister


having campaigned to remain in. If Eurosceptic backbenchers are Cabinet


minister can say, had David Cameron campaigned the other way, or less


lasciviously, we might have got our lifetime's ambition to leave the


European Union. If it is close, it will linger in the Tory party. It


introduces poison. My guess is that the party will fall apart. I am much


less certain than I was 18 months ago. They know they can govern for


another nine years. Have we change the constitution? I think the


presence of Germany Corbyn effectively guarantees the next


election. -- the presence of Jeremy Corbyn. Thank you.


So Jeremy Corbyn sacked two Shadow ministers and three resigned.


Now another Labour MP says she can no longer work with the party's


leadership in the wake of last week's reshuffle.


Alison McGovern has told this programme that she is resigning


from a policy review on child poverty after the pressure group


she chairs was described as "right wing" and "Conservative"


Labour say she's resigning from something that doesn't exist.


As Labour's internal divisions become more acrimonious,


can the different wings of the party continue to work with each other?


A new year, a new start, but still the fireworks.


But let's be honest, we have sort of got used to them.


There was that vote on Syria which saw 67 Labour MPs disagree


with their leader and vote with the government,


not least because of that speech from Hilary Benn.


Can I have a Green Clean Machine, please, with Siberian ginseng


Jeremy Corbyn's new year resolution, we were led to believe,


was to detoxify his party, starting with a reshuffle.


Things had started appearing in some of the newspapers.


There was talk of revenge, a dish best served cold.


The leadership team denied any such briefing.


But nothing actually happened until Tuesday when Michael Dugher,


the then Shadow Culture Secretary tweeted, just been


The day rattled on but it was not until after midnight that


Pat McFadden was fired from his role as a Shadow Europe Minister.


Both were accused of disloyalty by the leadership.


What then followed was a raft of resignations.


The first was Jonathan Reynolds in the Shadow Transport team.


Then the Shadow Foreign Office Minister, who picked our programme


I have just written to Jeremy Corbyn to resign from the front bench.


I think things that are being said, that are being briefed at,


that I've seen being briefed at this morning, are simply not true.


Undoubtedly they will do that about other individuals,


undoubtedly they will do that about me.


Less than an hour later, Shadow Defence Minister Kevan Jones


Jeremy Corbyn's right-hand man, John McDonnell, also


We have had a few junior members resign today


and that is their right, but they do all come from a narrow


right wing clique within the Labour Party, based around


I do not think they have ever really accepted Jeremy's mandate.


Progress is seen broadly as the Blairite wing of the party.


By the time the Shadow Chancellor was making those comments,


I am told he was late for a meeting with the group's


Alison McGovern says he asked to take part in Labour's policy


review on the subject, a role from which the Sunday Politics can


reveal she now feels she has to resign.


I am there waiting to meet him to talk about it and all


the while he had gone to the television studio to call


the organisation that I am the chair of of having a hard right


We are all Labour members and we believe in having


That is what we are, nothing more, nothing less,


and I do not want to be on the television talking


about this, but I feel like I have been backed into a corner and I have


no other choice now but to stand up and say,


this is who we are and we should get on with the business of getting


The rumours have centred around one man, because of this.


It is now time for us to do our bit in Syria.


But Hilary Benn kept his job as Shadow Foreign Secretary.


The BBC understands a number of Shadow Cabinet ministers had


threatened to walk out with him if he had been sacked.


Other new frontbenchers have defended their boss.


What Jeremy Corbyn has tried to do is to be consensual, to negotiate,


not to hurt people's feelings and get the right team,


and who says it has to be done in three hours or three days?


This has not exactly been a happy new year for Labour.


One Shadow Cabinet minister told me the handling of this


Another former minister said it smacked of a leader more focused


on consolidating his power internally and he was not looking


It has left a bad taste in the mouths of a number of them.


Actually, can I have a coffee instead?


We're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Education Secretary,


Welcome back to the programme. Was Jeremy Corbyn right to sack Michael


Dugher from the Shadow Cabinet? Good morning to you as well. It is good


to be zero. It has been a very difficult week for the Labour Party.


How can I top it off, by having a nice friendly chat with you about


the Labour Party? Was he right to sack Michael Dugher? I do not think


that after the difficult week we have had, I week which everybody


will be down to experience and learn the lessons from, that it is helpful


to the Labour Party, and indeed politics as a whole, for us to pick


through the events of that week. There is the moment to draw a line


under what has happened this week and to focus on the job we have got,


to be an effective opposition, to take this Tory government to task


and to start to begin that detailed work of setting out Labour's vision


and policies for the future, so that by the time of the next election, we


have a real alternative to put on the table. OK, but you would agree


the events are worthy of analysis and this is our first new programme


of the new Year. Jeremy Corbyn's team briefed that Michael Dugher was


incompetent. Do you think he was incompetent? The events of this week


have had plenty of analysis over many days. Not on this programme.


You have on your programme during the week as well. Was he


incompetent? Michael Dugher is a very good colleague and he will


serve the Labour Party well know from the backbenches, as he has done


over many years from the front benches. After all that has happened


this week, we retain a Shadow Cabinet, a Labour top team, that is


a broad team. The team that I joined on that basis, and that spirit of a


broad church remains. That is something I am pleased about, and


together, we can do the job we have been asked to do, because we are not


just Labour's Shadow Cabinet, we are the official opposition. The clue is


in the name. It is our job to expose what the government is doing. That


is my intention and Jeremy Corbyn's intention. Other members of the


Shadow Cabinet, Charlie Falconer, have said we need to draw line under


last week's events. Would you have stayed in the Shadow


Cabinet if Hilary Benn had been sacked? I am not going to get drawn


into nit-picking... It is a huge question because we were told 11


Shadow Cabinet ministers had threatened to resign. You had been


named in the number of reports as one of them, were you? It is a here


political situation. Hilary Benn remains... The Shadow Cabinet


remained intact as a broad team. My views were not sought nor offered.


This is a matter for Jeremy Corbyn, he is the leader of the Labour Party


and it is up to him to make decisions about the team and the


Shadow Cabinet. One of the new members of your team is Emily corn


bread, Shadow Defence Secretary. She says she does not know why Jeremy


Corbyn made her Shadow Defence Secretary. Do you? Again it is not


my view. I look forward to working with Emily and the rest of the


Shadow Cabinet to develop those policies going forward. One of them


is about the defence of our country and we will have a robust process,


and very detailed process, where we put forward the argument and look at


the evidence and the research and we will build a really good policy. Let


me ask you about an issue on this. A lot of the reason people see why she


has been appointed is quite clear. Your leader is against Trident and


always has been, he put Ken Livingstone in charge of the Trident


review, he now has a Shadow Defence Secretary opposed to Trident. It is


obvious that he is moving to end Labour's support for the nuclear


deterrent, is it not? You have got a very detailed policy process that we


will go through. It is not just a matter for the Shadow Cabinet, it is


a matter for the national policy forum. I am not a unilateralist, I


think we should maintain an independent, ongoing nuclear


deterrent. My question to you was... My question was is it not clear that


Jeremy Corbyn wants to move your party to a unilateral nuclear


disarmament position? That is his position, but let's see how this


process goes forward. I have not had a discussion with him about Trident


at all and we have not had a discussion in the Shadow Cabinet


about this topic yet either. We have a clear policy making process. In my


experience of these things, it never turns out to be as binary as


everybody wants it to be. As you proceed and set out your argument


and case and look at the evidence, as you commission research and try


to build alliances, not just within the Shadow Cabinet, but within the


trade union membership, you compromise and your position changes


and you get a policy that everyone can get behind and in my experience


that is what will happen. You are either for or against having nuclear


arms and labour fought the 1983 election on a unilateral disarmament


tickets and lost by a landslide. You have said you are in favour of


Trident. Would you resign from the Shadow Cabinet if labour comes out


for nuclear disarmament? I know you want this to be an easy decision. I


would just like an answer, Lucy Powell. Let's see where we get to.


If the Labour position becomes Mr Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn's


position, if that becomes your official policy, would you stay in


the Cabinet? I would be very surprised after all the discussion


we go through, after all aspects of the Labour Party, I would be very


surprised if we got to a position where the Labour Party policy was


one of unilateral disarmament. If it was, what would you do? We will see


when we get there, but I really do not think we will get there. I am


doing pretty badly this morning since every question has yet to


elicit an answer. I am getting better at batting you off. You


either on who is telling the viewers you are batting me off. I want to be


on your programme topic about what is happening to junior doctors. Stop


playing for time. Ask me about education and health. There are


reports this morning and Mr McDonnell the Shadow Chancellor


already referred to this, that Jeremy Corbyn's people want to


policy-making from the Shadow Cabinet to the Labour National


Executive Committee, not even the policy forum, just the executive


committee. Do you support that move? I do not think that is going to


happen. Any changes to Labour Party policy-making process, as those on


the left will know better than anybody because they are the holders


of the rule book, they will know that changes like that can only be


made at conference by changing the rule book of the Labour Party. We


have a very consensual policy-making process. Will the National Executive


Committee be the policy forum? No, that is not their role. We have got


a policy forum that could be improved in the way it engages with


outside experts and party members and the public and it could be


improved and Angela Eagle is looking that at that at the moment. But we


have a very robust and complex system, but to get to the right


policy-making process, and I know those of you in the media what it to


be really simple, but it is not. Was it consensual for the Shadow


Chancellor to describe the progress pressure group as having, quote, a


right-wing, Conservative agenda? I do not think his comments were right


or helpful. The best thing we can do now at the end of this week that we


have had is to put an end to the escalation of factionalism and name


calling and move on together to do the job that we need to do, which is


to be an effective government. You said today there are big issues


around Europe, junior doctors going on strike for the first time in 40


years and we have got an important job to do that my constituents


expect us to be doing. The last thing they want, and if there is


anything that Jeremy's leadership when taught us is that this


internal, talking about each other and the factions and so on, that is


what the public hate. They want big vision and big ideas and policies


for the future. When I ask you about policy ideas you will not give me an


answer. There cannot be a bigger idea than whether or not the Labour


Party is moving towards unilateral nuclear disarmament. We have just


had a huge chat about that. Ask me about education and the floods, the


economy that needs to change for working people. Ask me about the


crisis that is hitting families at the same time David Cameron is


making a speech about families and his government is doing the opposite


of supporting families. Ask me some of those things. On families are you


disappointed that Alison McGovern, the chair of progress, has resigned


from the policy forum on child poverty? It is a shame because


Alison has got a huge amount to offer. I have known her for many


years before both of us were Labour MPs and she has been a long-standing


campaigner on issues of child poverty and international


development and how we can change the economy to make it work for


working people. I hope Allison continues to make a contribution to


the Labour Party and I am sure she will, she is an effective


parliamentarian. I know from speaking to her that the last thing


she wants is all this attention that she is getting today and she was to


move on and draw a line and what has happened and realign our fire


knocked on each other, but on the Tories and on this government that


is doing a terrible job of running this country. Let me return to Emily


Thornberry. A year ago she accepted ?14,500 donation from a law firm


which has been condemned by an enquiry for making false allegations


against British soldiers which were wholly without merit, in the words


of the enquiry. Now she is Shadow Defence Secretary should she


returned that money? I do not know anything about that, I do not know


about the law firm or the nature of the sponsorship and how it was given


or what she is doing, but I am sure she will come on this programme and


you can interrogate her about these issues as you happen to me the past.


Very well, let's hope I will do better next time. Goodbye.


Now, after last-ditch talks broke up on Friday without agreement


a strike by Junior doctors, the first in over 40 years,


It will lead to the cancellation of thousands of appointments


and operations and the Government argues


So what's prompted this virtually unprecedented action by Doctors?


The Health Secretary is the star of a high-stakes medical drama.


The supporting cast, junior doctors, the thousands of staff who finished


medical school but are not consultants yet.


It is over big changes to their contracts, from rotas


to pay, changes which are much needed, according to the government,


and their supporters in places like right of centre think tanks.


It has wanted to move towards more of the seven-day week,


which actually, I think that ambition is shared


across the medical workforce, including junior doctors,


and it wants to change the so-called pay progression,


the way that junior doctors get paid more just for being in office


for longer, just as they are doing to the rest of the public sector,


so I think they were absolutely right to start this


But the doctors are furious about it.


Both sides have been negotiating for months,


most recently on Friday, when the gap between them


Let's look at some of the concessions made


They want Saturday to be considered a normal working day.


Initially they said antisocial hours which come with extra pay would not


But that has been rolled back to 7:00pm.


The Department of Health has also promised to introduce so-called


guardians who will monitor that doctors are not forced to work


They will have the power to fine NHS trusts who break the rules,


and the Government reckons most junior doctors will actually see


Jeremy Hunt says that agreement has been reached in 15 out of 16 areas,


but I've spoken to someone on the junior doctors' negotiating


team who told me that the number of unresolved issues


Nadia is an anaesthetist at a London Hospital.


She will be a consultant soon and is worried for the junior


doctors who will follow in her footsteps.


They will probably find themselves working more weekends,


They would find their shifts much more erratic, much less compatible


with having a normal life, which would affect the working lives


of thousands of junior doctors who have families and children


in school, and they would struggle with that.


It would also affect patients, having erratic working lives,


erratic working hours, is proven not to be good


for anyone's health, and there are lots of studies that


If this contract goes through, there is a high likelihood


that is going to be the situation and those people will be in charge


More than 70 junior doctors from hospitals along


It is a repeat of 1975, the last time that junior


On Tuesday, this generation of medics will provide only


Another two strikes are coming with plans for no junior doctors


This issue has even made it into the charts when an NHS choir


One of the campaigners behind it says the government is not


seeing the real problems in the health service.


There are not enough staff, this is not in one hospital,


this is every hospital in the country, there are not enough


staff to deal with the demands in A


There are not enough GPs, and GPs are leaving our health


service, A doctors are leaving the health service.


These are the key issues which need to be addressed,


and they need to be addressed now, not after this contract negotiation


or as part of a pay envelope, or any other speak the government


Jeremy Hunt is convinced that a more seven-day NHS is the way


But it looks like there could be plenty of cliffhangers


Now, we asked for an interview with the doctors' union,


the BMA, and the Department for Health but neither


But we're joined now by the former Conservative MP and Health Secretary


He now chairs the NHS Confederation which represents NHS Trusts.


Welcome to the programme. Thank you. Our BMA militants spoiling for a


fight, or has Jeremy Hunt bungled the negotiations and provoke


hard-working doctors to stop work? The last thing patients want is a


long running commentary about the behaviour of the negotiating


parties. It is disappointing that we have got a strike action plan for


this week, but what we need to see is the parties back in the


negotiating room dealing with the detail that your report just


highlighted. That can only be dealt with round the negotiating table.


The overwhelming majority of doctors to back an unprecedented action of


strikes, including a full strike in the third one, hardly suggests the


negotiations have been handled with aplomb. What has been going on


within the negotiating room is addressing the detail. Any pay


negotiation, as you very well know, covers a mass of complex detail.


There is a commitment from the BMA and the employers and the government


to deliver better performance over the weekend and we have seen. We


have seen in our hospitals that there is an issue around excess


mortality. The government is right to address that issue. This is part


of the response to that issue and that is a commitment that is shared


by all the negotiators. It cannot be that accepted as they are going on


strike. The government claims there are 11,000 unnecessary weekend


deaths because of book cover. That is just a propaganda figure. It is


right that the excess mortality is not just around we can cover, that


is true. That figure is a propaganda figure. There is an analysis that


shows there is excess mortality in British hospitals at weekends. That


is an issue that the BMA, the doctors, the clinical leaders of the


health service and the management leaders and the government from a


policy point of view all understand needs to be reassessed. Except the


report comes up with the 11000 and you said it is not possible to


determine the extent to which these excess deaths may be preventable and


it would be misleading to assume they were. It is a figure the


Secretary of State uses all the time. Rash and misleading. I am not


using it, but I say there is a need to look seriously on behalf of


patients if there is evidence of excess mortality at the weekend. We


know there is excess mortality. But that is not the right figure. Should


we simply sit back and do nothing? If the figure is not right perhaps


the Secretary of State should not be using it. Is it not wholly


unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS


unrealistic to implement a full seven-day week cover in the NHS


without an increase in overall NHS resources? That is what the


government announced in the comprehensive spending review before


Christmas. What is unrealistic... That is simply to keep the NHS


ticking over, it is not to pay for seven days a week cover. It is


unrealistic to imagine we can deliver the kind of health and care


services we want in our country without addressing some of the


fundamental issues around budgets, you are right about that, but also


about joining up the different elements of the health and social


care system. We talk about the NHS budget and we come into the studio


on a separate we can to talk as though it is a completely different


subject about the funding of social care and residential care. What we


need to be more adult about is looking at this as a single system,


which is why I and the NHS Confederation have called for a


review of the funding and structure of health and care services.


The government is trying to implement seven-day week cover on


health spending that is essentially unchanged in real terms, not


financing that. Look at what our health spending is, as a share of


GDP, look among the wealthier countries of Europe, down there, we


spend 8.5% of our GDP on health, and that includes private health. These


other countries, Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, France, are


closer to 11%. The event that we already spend less, how can we hope


to have a seven day a week NHS on a .5% GDP. Most of the people who work


in the health service now we already have a seven day a week health


service. This is about Phil cover. What do you say about this? What I


say about the funding of the health service is that this is precisely


one of the issues that needs to be addressed. I think it needs to be


addressed on a cross-party basis. That is one of the things I learned


this chair of the cross-party health committee in the last parliament.


Can we afford things like seven day a week, Phil cover of which is what


is being proposed with that level of health spending? Only Ireland


devotes less spending than we do. I accept there is an issue around


excess mortality in NHS hospitals that we can. I do not accept that we


do not have a seven day a week health service. Do you accept that


we need to get closer to France and Germany than we are at the moment on


spending? I do agree that not just in this country but across the


world, all over a very long period, as societies get richer, they spend


more of their income on health and your services, but we have to move


away from thinking the health service is isolated, it is part of


the key system, and we need to look at that on a holistic bases across


health and tear. That is in the medium and long-term. You're doing


your commission, I hope you will keep us appraised of that as you go


on. Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics


in Northern Ireland. The day before she's expected


to become First Minister, we look at the challenges


facing Arlene Foster. In this year of centenaries,


is there a way to commemorate both the Easter Rising and the Somme that


will please all sides? And with me throughout


the programme with their thoughts are the journalists


Allison Morris and Sam McBride. Tomorrow Arlene Foster is expected


to officially become First Minister. The Fermanagh MLA became party


leader before Christmas and says she's humbled to be


following in the footsteps So what should she be concentrating


on in the weeks ahead? Our Political Correspondent,


Stephen Walker, has been considering what should be


in the First Minister's in-tray. Thank you for the confidence and you


have shown in the. Thank you for the opportunity you have given me. Our


new First Minister will be Arlene Foster. Margaret Thatcher was known


as the iron Lady, and Arlene will be no other no ironing lady. By all


accounts, Arlene Foster has a good sense of humour and she will need


it. From now on, she will be the number one target of comedians and


cartoonists. From tomorrow, everything stops at her office. So


as to thousands 16 and false, what can we realistically expect from the


new First Minister? How things be different, Sammy Wilson could have


been preparing this weekend for his first day as First Minister, but he


decided not to challenge Arlene Foster. Instead, he offers her with


advice. She has a fairly daunting task. The Assembly doesn't have a


great image, partly because of its own behaviour and the way the media


has treated some of its successors. The first thing she must do is try


between now and the election to get a lot of positives for the Assembly.


What can we expect from Arlene Foster? Some say she now has an


opportunity to be very different from their predecessors. Her biggest


hurdles will be first reaching out and being perfectly in command of


her only Unionism, reaching out to nationalism and saying she means it.


She has said that, she has said it is ridiculous not to. Her other one


is going to be managing the party. Managing it in a positive way rather


than a negative way, rather than just keeping down dissent. She


doesn't need to do that. The months ahead, Foster will want to see


Lieberman and Asian of the French -- fresh start agreement. Education is


also a priority as you push for investment and prioritise job


creation. But aside from the wider economic issues, Mays Assembly


elections loom large. She does not want to spend me the six touring


studios and explaining why the DUP as last six or seven seats. They


will not be -- fall behind Sinn Fein, she does not want after


spending the day doing that. She was to come back and say yes, new


leader, new party, new conditions. We did extraordinarily well. That is


the only thing she has to say, because when she does that, the


party is settled, it is her party. At the many, it is not entirely


hers, she has to prove herself. If she does that may the sick, she can


do anything she likes after that. So will and bolts of Government.


Therefore, I think people will be prepared to give her trust in the


months ahead. To some, Foster is more than a politician. They see her


as somebody who can inspire other women to enter public life. I think


it is something Arlene Foster should definitely concentrate on. There are


women in her party and elsewhere who she could encourage and she should


do that. Do you think she will? It will be a big mistake if she didn't


I think. I think people expect that of her, it is new style, new


leadership and a new DUP with her on board. And she has tremendous


opportunities to make change. All leaders are judged by results and


Arlene Foster will be no difference. A political honeymoon will be brief.


Polling day is just four months away.


Stephen Walker taking a peek at Arlene Foster's "to do" list.


And joining me with their thoughts are journalists Sam McBride


Allison, will the DUP look different to the Catholic/Nationalist


I think at this point of the relationship between Peter Robinson


and Sinn Fein had failed to such a point, she has low starting point


she can only do better. But as a leader, her main priority... We


almost had to DUP is at one point. What she needs to do is put the


legacy Peter Robinson behind her. She does not want to be seen as just


following on from him, she needs to make a stamp. Before she attempts to


reach out to Nationalists, she needs to unite her own party and quell any


dissent. She said there were not two wings within the party. How do she


hold of the religious or secular elements of the DUP together must


remark I think between now and the next election, she will be quite


staid and conservative in how she manages the party. It is about


getting as many seats back as possible. After the election, there


is a period of about three years when there is no election and that


is when we will see the real Arlene Foster and what she's made of and


where she was to take the party. Can she hold that call, keep the core


elements of the DUP happy while at the same time trying to reach out to


the non-court voters? There are two potential areas where she can reach


out. She can reach at a Catholics or people who might be persuaded to


move from the best all Peter Unionist party which Peter Robinson


has suggested he would try to do and failed in any meaningful way. Or she


can try to reach out to liberal Protestant unionist people who are


turned off by issues such as abortion and gay marriage and


potentially, I think, we could see rather than any softening of the DUP


on constitutional issues, we could see a softening in terms of social


issues, not in terms of Foster's supporting abortion, but perhaps


moving to a position where they don't take a position on it. If she


tries to reach out to Catholic nationalist voters, people who vote


for the SDLP, what kind of response do you think she will get? And Peter


Robinson said he was going to try and reach out, he refused to engage


with us in any way, so that was hardly indicative of someone trying


to reach out to Nationalists. It will be interesting to see, Arlene


will appeal to strong women who are looking for direction in the social


issues. She has already made clear that her stance on things such as


gay marriage and soft issues on the different than what Peter Robinson's


were. Some have suggested the flags protest killed off the DUP's attempt


to reach out? She's not Belfast -based, so she's not tainted with


the stigma of the flag protest. That was a Belfast protest, let's face


it. She comes fresh from that, so Nationalists don't connect in any


way to those protests. One of the significant issues is that we have a


leader of the union who is not a member of Orange Order. That is very


sick and if it can. She is also from a rural Protestant unionist


community and will not instinctively be very supportive of some of the


antics we have seen in Belfast. Allison, do you expect to promote


women? While, Margaret Thatcher pushed women down, but I like to


think Arlene Foster would and you can already see a change in


leadership around the DUP coming up through the back of the ranks and I


would like to see them pushed to the front.


The new year saw the start of the Republic's official


commemorations of the Easter Rising centenary.


Later in the year the Battle of the Somme's 100th anniversary


In a moment I'll be asking two historians how they view those key


But first, here's the Irish Minister with responsibility for the year


of centenaries, Heather Humphreys, speaking to BBC Newsline's Mark


As you know, I am an Ulster woman and I come from a Presbyterian


family, so I am conscious of the sensitivities and I fully understand


that how people may be concerned about it. But I have been a very


keen that these commemorations would be respectful and it is about


commemorating what happened in 1916 but also about reflecting on an


Ireland in the last century and looking ambitiously to the future.


As well as that, the Government had planned a comprehensive Somme


commemoration, because, as I know and we all know, so many Ulster men


and indeed Irish men right across the whole of Ireland lost their


lives in the battle of the Somme. We will also commemorate those events.


This is a great opportunity for us to come together, reflects our


shared history and there is so much of our history in 1916 and that is


intertwined and that has been revealed through World War I


commemorations, so we will all look together at the past, but what is


important is we look ambitiously to the future.


With me now are the historians Lord Bew and Dr Marie Coleman.


Paul Bew, the Rising was a key part of the history of this whole island.


Why do Unionists seem reluctant to engage with this anniversary?


You must remember that constitutional nationalism also


condemned the rising, the Democratic leadership of nationalist Ireland


condemned it and there is a crucial question of the appeal to allies in


Germany. So it control of it be rising that unionist even today


remain it in a condemnatory mode. It raises great difficulties about


historical understanding and what it means. It would be a good thing if


Unionists could accept at least a partial element of response ability.


They were the first to bring gunners interisland, but not the first to


use them and it is ridiculous to say that Irish Republicans needed the


example of Unionists. But it would be a good thing if there was some


understanding of the conflict and of the role that Unionists also played.


This doesn't in any way involved them in saying he was a good thing,


it was in many respects a disaster, particularly for Catholics in the


North and created a harsher partition and was economically a


much harsher life for two generations of Irish people. They


were all consequences of the rising and are much more sectarian society


come all consequences of the rising for which unionist are not


responsible. Marie, but would be the smart way for unionist to approach


the commemoration? Nationalists will find themselves in a similar


position in five years when it comes to commemorating the setting up of


Northern Ireland. Taking a longer term into account would be a good


idea to start with. I've been impressed with the number of


references that Arlene Foster has made to 1916 and I think her initial


speech at the New Year talking about engaging and reflecting on the


rising is quite important. It is a good sign and likewise, there is a


willingness in Unionism to engage with a historic significance of the


Rising. She quoted recently that she would be taking part in an of the


events as part of this so-called commemoration? I kind of language


doesn't strike some people as being particularly liberal? I caught the


reference, and I know she has been painted as backtracking from her


initial statement at the New Year, but I don't think she has. I think


she is still reflecting the significance and prepared to engage


with the significance of the Rising, but I do think anyone could


legitimately expect to attend the set piece parades that will be


taking place in Dublin on Easter Sunday. It is a challenge for


Unionists, Paul, I don't know what your thoughts are on what Arlene


Foster said, but she has said she will not take part representing


Northern Ireland as the First Minister in those particular events.


Magnus Pitt said he will organise -- Mike Nesbitt is organise --


suggesting his party in the Republic


to mark the occasion. in many respects, if you look at the


rhetoric of the Rising, it is followers into the post office and


you will have a country of 20 million Irish speaking. What you


actually get, and it's almost inevitable once rigid use a gun into


Irish politics, is rigid as a country of 2 million


English-speaking, a harsher partition, Ireland becomes


overtaxed, and what you actually get is you have to cut your own age --


old-age pensioners soon as you get an independent Irish Government. So


the Independent and economical project if taken seriously is


dishonest and in many respects a radical failure. This isn't to say


there is not the bravery and sincerity on the part of people at


the Rising, but there doesn't seem to be anything to be afraid of


intellectually for Unionists to engage with. The downside of the


Rising is dramatic and the worst downside is that any small group of


self appointed people can say I define Irish is true, I will get the


gun and I'm like the men of 1916, it doesn't matter what the men are


voting for. It is also a challenge for Sinn Fein who are running own


commemorative events. It seems to be painting itself other national --


natural air. -- natural heir. The Sinn Fein of 1916 was not the


Republican Sinn Fein that would emerge in 1917. If Irish parties are


fighting over the legitimate legacy of the rising, it will be the Irish


Labour Party who may be ahead of the queue to claim that legacy. Sinn


Fein are our position. We saw this last year as well, on one hand, they


are going into an election which be held in advance of the


commemorations and you can't understand the importance of these


commemorations without seeing him in the context of that election. On the


one hand, they're going into it and playing a full part in Parliament


politics, spiralling to being in Government in the south, but at the


same time, the by-elections fought were


weakening but still have the support of Irish Nationalists. That was Sinn


Fein's argument 100 years ago. This time, there is no problem, they say


they will extend its for a year even though that gives exactly the same


argument, that the men of 1916 had. Your mandate has run out, we are


entitled to use our gunner. It is a curious thing. People claim to being


chewed with Irish history and think deeply about it, most people are


claiming it is not in Schumann at all that interesting resonances.


The Somme commemoration is approaching. What are the pitfalls


there? Proper respect has been paid to the many people who are Catholic


and nationalist communities who lost their lives and indeed I curl up in


the, absolutely gym article is so in the summer of 1915.


It was said there was hardly a family in Northern Ireland who did


not have a loss of life. Marie, you mentioned percent scene of the


foundation of the state of Northern Ireland. What about the Somme? About


how it is marked by Unionists and those who are not from the unionist


background? When you look at previous commemorations, what was


missing was the conferences approach to 1916 and Irish Government will be


marking the Somme as well. Unionists could look at aspects of the 1916


commemorations in Ireland which will also mark the Irish men who joined


the rising. -- Rising. I want the Irish Government to be more


inclusive this time. Let's pause for a look back


at the political week gone past With flooding causing huge problems,


three executive ministers met to discuss hell up. We all different


ideas as ministers, and we will discuss in next week and take on how


we can help people. Simon Hamilton named the panel to shape the future


of health care. This is a massive next step in terms of taking forward


recommendations. We want to learn from other experiences elsewhere and


take expert advice for outside Northern Ireland. Will these teams


be going to Belfast City Hall? It is a unique situation. Tonight we will


hold an event that logistically will be difficult. Tributes were paid to


Liam Clarke, he was a Sunday Politics regular who died at


Christmas. STL P veteran said he was leading the Assembly. -- SDLP.


We're certainly all the poorer for Liam Clarke's passing and he'll


The final fought -- thoughts from Alison and Samba. Difficult is about


the outgoing Sinn Fein... It is a lesson not just the politicians but


for us all and that so most people. But we were seen by 167 people which


is only up for an hour could end up costing a small fortune. It was a


monumental a stupid thing to have done and it took a long to


apologise. It shed some light on why Sinn Fein deselected Fine Gael, he


has done one gaffe too many to be reselected. It is a lesson for us


all. On one hand, but do say on Twitter account the views are my


own, but it doesn't mind -- mean you can say things you wouldn't


necessarily say in the newspaper. If I tweet something, I think what I


put it in my column, if not, I wouldn't put it on Twitter. Your


thoughts on the discussion we have just tired in challengers for the


parties about the Easter Rising and the Somme? Politicians are getting


dragged in the most upper part in it, particularly south of the border


where it is about the foundation of the state. People will learn a lot


more lessons. There are lessons for all sides. There is not moral


equivalence between all the side that took part, there are a lot of


books in the last year about it, more so than politicians getting


dragged into it. Both of those events involve all the people of


this Ireland and the shaped -- and it shaped the Ireland we live and


now. Everyone should be invested rather than take ownership of one


side or the other. And you can hear an interview


with Arlene Foster on BBC Radio and beget affordable to Londoners to


buy. Andrew, back to you. Now, the Prime Minister


is pledging to "tear down" 100 sink estates in England,


replacing them with new homes Michael Heseltine is being brought


in to oversee the initiative, but so far the Government's


pledged to spend just ?140 I think sink housing estates,


many built after the war, where people can feel


trapped in poverty, unable to get on and build a good


life for themselves, I think it is time, with Government


money but with massive private sector and perhaps


pension sector help, demolish the worst of these


and actually rebuild houses that people feel they can


have a real future in. So, we have not got a budget for


this scheme, we do not know how much it will cost, we do not know the 100


sink estates that will be renovated, other than that it is a great idea.


Politically it is a great idea because it signals in Westminster


what we call a one nation approach to policy. There is not much behind


it at all, but the symbolism is powerful. Iain Duncan Smith began


his leadership with a visit to a housing estate. Tony Blair began his


premiership with a visit to a housing estate in London. There is a


rich history of this and David Cameron is right that post-war, poor


people in this country were used as guinea pigs for brittle lists and


modern architect. This is the way of taking the edge of that. If it is


only symbolism, it does not help anybody. At the end of this worldly


amount of social housing be higher or lower than it was before? When


you sell off these properties, there is supposed to be a mechanism


whereby people build more. Where in Kensington will you build more?


Social housing rents in Islington are 20% of market rates. Affordable


rates are 60% of astronomical and people cannot afford them. It is not


affordable for the people in social housing. I noticed the Prime


Minister mentioned building in the private sector and he mentioned


pension funds. I have monitored the pension fund contribution to


infrastructure and it is pretty close to zero. If these people in


these estates are waiting on pension money, they will be living in their


sink estates for a long time to come. He also mentioned in the


report by an estate agent that says you have these high-rise rocks in


so-called recreational areas in no-go zones and if you had lower


blocks you could use that and have many more people. We know all that,


but how will it happen? The image that came into my mind when I saw


the article in the Sunday Times was the picture you carried on the front


page of the Sunday Times which was Margaret Thatcher walking into that


inner-city wilderness and saying, we have got to concentrate on the inner


cities after she won her third election. But the problem is there


has to be substance and there is a danger with Downing Street that they


think Jeremy Corbyn is in their eyes so useless that they can do these


hits like this, but you have to have substance. If you are talking about


rebuilding Britain's council housing estates, you need more money. Let's


monitored this closely. Let's find out what the 100 estates will be and


let's get a regular update on how they will be improved and it would


be nice to know where either people who are going to go to live in them


at the moment? They had trouble getting the MPs who were living in


Parliament and trying to get them out after three years. Let's keep an


Now, if our political panel have made New Year's resolutions to spend


less time in the office, they might have to break them


because 2016 is going to keep them busy.


The EU Referendum, which could happen as early as June,


will dominate the political landscape.


David Cameron continues his attempts at renegotiation apace,


but it is unlikely to convince the ardent "leave" campaigners,


The result of the elections on the first Thursday in May


will dictate the tone of Jeremy Corbyn's first


In Scotland, the party is facing the possibility of virtual wipe-out


But there are also elections for the Welsh assembly -


And in the local elections there are predictions Labour


could lose up to 200 of the 1,200 seats they are defending.


Northern Ireland will also be holding elections.


London might offer Labour a glimmer of hope, with Sadiq Khan maintaining


a paper-thin lead over his Conservative rival Zac Goldsmith.


Away from the ballot box, a few long-awaited decisions may


finally come to fruition, not least a ruling on the expansion


Economic growth could be trimmed back in the face of a global


slowdown, as speculation continues about when the Bank of England


And come the summer, we should finally find out


what the Chilcot inquiry into the Iraq war actually achieved.


Helen, the Tory split over Europe, particularly if the referendum is


this year, will be apparent for all to see. As David Davis was saying,


it could be a serious split down the middle of the party. Is there a


possibility that the party managers lose control of this split? This


becomes a serious, historical split for the Tories? My feeling is it


will be quite contained. They have power, they want to stay in power


and they are seen as a credible party in government. It is not an


existential issue in the that Trident is. Trident in labour is so


forceful is that this is something that is attacking the heart of the


Labour Party and it is rendering it unelectable. Is the country so


excited about Europe? The turnout might be quite low? Is the Tory


party turning up against Europe going to put a lot of them off? I


would think not. I remember in 1840s the... You took it off twitter. It


was the quill pen. The party was split them for a generation. Is this


as potentially a serious? There were Eurosceptics who were saying this


would be a great split. But they were not in power as a majority for


about 30 or 35 years after that split. That is why what the Prime


Minister announced last week when he said ministers will be able to


campaign on either side was so vitally important in ensuring that


the split that will come, and it will be a split, does not turn into


a civil war. That announcement is really important for managing the


tone and the aftermath. I think Downing Street are hoping it will


not be a Corbin like split, but some are hoping it will be on the other


side. My instinct is that telling the ministers to campaign as they


see fit, I think you will avoid it being the worst split. You may be


right, but sometimes the Tories when it comes to Europe just cannot help


themselves as we saw with Maastricht. Let me come to Labour.


It has been a pretty traumatic week for Labour. Where now? Where now is


Labour moderates increasingly peeling off over the course of this


year. From the Shadow Cabinet or the party? The Shadow Cabinet and the


front bench, rather than the party, although moderates in the country


might peel off as well. What I found bizarre about the reshuffle was not


the fact that Pat McFadden was sacked, that Maria Eagle was


demoted, the mystery to me is why do they want to be there in the first


place? What do mainstream Labour people think they are achieving by


actively serving in the front bench of a leader who they themselves


believe is driving the party into the ground? Presumably there is some


prestige in being in the Shadow Cabinet. Of any Shadow Cabinet, the


Tory ones included. They think party unity is a prized above all else and


they are actively aiding and abetting and will be tainted by the


results in 2020 if it is as bad as people think it will be. If the


centre-left of the party peels off from the Shadow Cabinet, that will


make life a lot easier for Jeremy Corbyn and John McDonald. He can


reconfigure the Shadow Cabinet in his image. Yes and he has got a good


year coming. Labour are likely to be the largest party and will end up in


government and Sadiq Khan has a good chance of winning the Mayor


elections and all of that will stop anyone on the Centre who wants to


say, the electorate have spoken and this man can never get anywhere. I


do not think it will happen. My sense is even if the election


results sense is even if the election


results are bad, it is not curtains for Jeremy Corbyn, but if they are


as decent as Helen suggested, will he go into the Labour conference in


Liverpool at the end of September looking to change the Trident


policy? A totemic change of policy? That is why good is the story in the


Independent On Sunday about strengthening the hand of the


National executive committee of the Labour Party, over the cabinet, so


they can change the policy by then. You're right, Steve Deke Canos


looking stronger in London than Zac Goldsmith, Susie may well win. --


Sadiq Khan is stronger. Labour is bound to do badly. Local elections


do not determine leaders. Jeremy Corbyn may well have a narrative


that says it is all OK. Yes or no, will Jeremy Corbyn be leader of the


Labour Party at the end of this year? Yes, definitely, without


question. If David Cameron loses the referendum, will he be Prime


Minister by the end of the year? Yes. No. Yes.


The Daily Politics will be back at lunchtime tomorrow and all next


And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday.


Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.


Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers discuss EU renegotiation with David Davis, Labour under Jeremy Corbyn with Lucy Powell, and a seven-day health service with NHS Confederation chair Stephen Dorrell. Janan Ganesh of the Financial Times, Helen Lewis of the New Statesman and Nick Watt of the Guardian discuss the papers.

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