15/06/2014 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


15/06/2014

The latest political news, interviews and debate in Northern Ireland. Shown earlier today on BBC One Northern Ireland.


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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:36.:00:43.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

:00:44.:00:48.

The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

:00:50.:00:52.

What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

:00:53.:00:54.

It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

:00:55.:00:58.

But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

:00:59.:01:02.

Both sides join us to go head to head.

:01:03.:01:09.

I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

:01:10.:01:13.

that? And coming up here:

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even Westminster, we'll be asking As police promise a crackdown

:01:16.:01:23.

on loyalist flags I'll be hearing reaction from

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Mike Nesbitt, Alasdair McDonnell Join me in half an hour.

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support amongst people is bigger than assumed.

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The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control

:01:43.:01:45.

of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including

:01:46.:01:47.

Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly

:01:48.:01:51.

on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted

:01:52.:01:53.

The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that

:01:54.:01:58.

Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.

:01:59.:02:05.

Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to

:02:06.:02:07.

reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw

:02:08.:02:09.

his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered

:02:10.:02:15.

the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.

:02:16.:02:18.

The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds

:02:19.:02:21.

The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their

:02:22.:02:31.

autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the

:02:32.:02:35.

grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.

:02:36.:02:38.

All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with

:02:39.:02:40.

The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier

:02:41.:02:45.

battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no

:02:46.:02:47.

While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies

:02:48.:02:52.

and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has

:02:53.:02:54.

Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.

:02:55.:03:07.

Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they

:03:08.:03:17.

controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad

:03:18.:03:22.

organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th

:03:23.:03:26.

century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --

:03:27.:03:30.

create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it

:03:31.:03:36.

involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and

:03:37.:03:40.

Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they

:03:41.:03:42.

have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question

:03:43.:03:47.

is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely

:03:48.:03:55.

the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of

:03:56.:04:00.

the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the

:04:01.:04:03.

Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned

:04:04.:04:09.

against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have

:04:10.:04:12.

so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going

:04:13.:04:17.

back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception

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back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is

:04:20.:04:23.

ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni

:04:24.:04:26.

Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.

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Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map

:04:30.:04:33.

to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they

:04:34.:04:36.

took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was

:04:37.:04:45.

involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?

:04:46.:04:51.

We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as

:04:52.:04:59.

American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in

:05:00.:05:01.

Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show

:05:02.:05:04.

they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost

:05:05.:05:10.

forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal

:05:11.:05:14.

with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other

:05:15.:05:18.

things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do

:05:19.:05:23.

it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will

:05:24.:05:26.

take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task

:05:27.:05:32.

forces, call them what you will, can effectively counter-attacked. But

:05:33.:05:38.

that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see

:05:39.:05:41.

increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying

:05:42.:05:50.

to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian

:05:51.:05:55.

style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would

:05:56.:06:03.

like to have a look at this map, because the Kurds, as I mentioned,

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they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in

:06:07.:06:09.

the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim

:06:10.:06:14.

West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of

:06:15.:06:21.

Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the

:06:22.:06:24.

beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we

:06:25.:06:34.

have to caveat it in a few ways. Firstly, there are millions of

:06:35.:06:39.

people in Iraq, so-called sushi, combined families, who do not fit

:06:40.:06:44.

easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees

:06:45.:06:49.

under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people

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really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni

:06:53.:06:58.

Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a

:06:59.:07:04.

lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de

:07:05.:07:14.

facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the

:07:15.:07:20.

side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni

:07:21.:07:26.

Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,

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it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction

:07:31.:07:35.

it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on

:07:36.:07:40.

the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,

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Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now

:07:46.:07:50.

becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I

:07:51.:07:57.

was in Baghdad a few months ago, I did actually see Iranians

:07:58.:07:58.

revolutionary guards in uniform. They were protecting a senior

:07:59.:08:05.

Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they

:08:06.:08:08.

are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his

:08:09.:08:14.

compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise

:08:15.:08:18.

the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not

:08:19.:08:23.

allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive

:08:24.:08:25.

this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain

:08:26.:08:30.

into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy

:08:31.:08:32.

to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,

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the US and Russia. This morning he entered

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the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left

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Saddam in place in 2003, when 2011 happened and you have the Arab

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revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and

:08:54.:09:00.

Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see

:09:01.:09:03.

what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened

:09:04.:09:07.

with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to

:09:08.:09:12.

say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly

:09:13.:09:15.

legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do

:09:16.:09:20.

understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will

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affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign

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Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,

:09:26.:09:27.

he was chief spokesman for the State Department under

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Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan

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Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,

:09:34.:09:50.

we don't intervene in Syria, it's a shambles. What lessons should we

:09:51.:09:54.

draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the

:09:55.:09:58.

problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably

:09:59.:10:01.

have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone

:10:02.:10:06.

would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does

:10:07.:10:12.

drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what

:10:13.:10:16.

has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout

:10:17.:10:19.

both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,

:10:20.:10:25.

democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been

:10:26.:10:30.

missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have

:10:31.:10:36.

just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building

:10:37.:10:40.

dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the

:10:41.:10:44.

ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by

:10:45.:10:47.

that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,

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nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the

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White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of

:10:57.:10:59.

the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be

:11:00.:11:02.

very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to

:11:03.:11:09.

act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda

:11:10.:11:14.

inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and

:11:15.:11:20.

Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual

:11:21.:11:24.

terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and

:11:25.:11:34.

the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do

:11:35.:11:40.

enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil

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War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,

:11:45.:11:49.

nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President

:11:50.:11:56.

Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out

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of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like

:12:00.:12:07.

the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge

:12:08.:12:09.

humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million

:12:10.:12:14.

Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And

:12:15.:12:17.

now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from

:12:18.:12:23.

Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international

:12:24.:12:28.

community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's

:12:29.:12:31.

assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if

:12:32.:12:36.

anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to

:12:37.:12:42.

assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some

:12:43.:12:49.

of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have

:12:50.:12:52.

justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the

:12:53.:12:59.

terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the

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West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,

:13:04.:13:06.

but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the

:13:07.:13:09.

Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?

:13:10.:13:16.

In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this

:13:17.:13:23.

situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for

:13:24.:13:27.

sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that

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the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that

:13:33.:13:36.

ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit. We

:13:37.:13:41.

are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq

:13:42.:13:45.

to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.

:13:46.:13:51.

This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the

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Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped

:13:54.:13:58.

with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with

:13:59.:14:04.

the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that

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straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark

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Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan

:14:14.:14:16.

and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure

:14:17.:14:20.

why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it

:14:21.:14:26.

risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way

:14:27.:14:30.

which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim

:14:31.:14:35.

bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of

:14:36.:14:40.

social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are

:14:41.:14:45.

suddenly very, very high indeed. Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines

:14:46.:14:51.

were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may

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have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.

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The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor

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partition going on -- des facto. Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit

:15:09.:15:14.

of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a

:15:15.:15:18.

way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the

:15:19.:15:21.

Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of

:15:22.:15:25.

this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,

:15:26.:15:30.

reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has

:15:31.:15:39.

done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.

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What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics

:15:45.:15:49.

let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria

:15:50.:15:58.

and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out

:15:59.:16:06.

a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.

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President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There

:16:11.:16:17.

was no terrorist. There are now. If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a

:16:18.:16:22.

thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the

:16:23.:16:28.

West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.

:16:29.:16:47.

The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

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You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we

:16:59.:17:03.

would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things

:17:04.:17:06.

have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq

:17:07.:17:11.

completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays

:17:12.:17:13.

together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays

:17:14.:17:15.

together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has

:17:16.:17:21.

changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for

:17:22.:17:26.

the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either

:17:27.:17:34.

the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up

:17:35.:17:38.

and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be

:17:39.:17:42.

problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If

:17:43.:17:49.

we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know

:17:50.:17:55.

it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very

:17:56.:18:03.

destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even

:18:04.:18:06.

the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have

:18:07.:18:11.

to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is

:18:12.:18:25.

extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political

:18:26.:18:29.

groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the

:18:30.:18:33.

rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the

:18:34.:18:36.

rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an

:18:37.:18:40.

autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be

:18:41.:18:44.

premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is

:18:45.:18:57.

in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be

:18:58.:19:04.

serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim

:19:05.:19:08.

moderates, to form a more representative government. This is

:19:09.:19:13.

the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to

:19:14.:19:18.

need to be some major western leadership to make some big

:19:19.:19:21.

decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after

:19:22.:19:26.

Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite

:19:27.:19:31.

world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are

:19:32.:19:37.

not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not

:19:38.:19:40.

going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are

:19:41.:19:46.

big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were

:19:47.:19:51.

world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global

:19:52.:19:55.

leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I

:19:56.:19:59.

think we will leave it there, thank you very much.

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The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

:20:05.:20:09.

It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.

:20:10.:20:12.

So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer

:20:13.:20:14.

But the campaign isn't just getting heated.

:20:15.:20:19.

In places it's also down-right nasty. When

:20:20.:20:21.

Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving

:20:22.:20:23.

the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received

:20:24.:20:25.

Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,

:20:26.:20:33.

called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of

:20:34.:20:36.

For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused

:20:37.:20:39.

Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised

:20:40.:20:43.

Conservative ministers for relying on "threats

:20:44.:20:45.

With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even

:20:46.:20:50.

comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because

:20:51.:20:52.

I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie

:20:53.:20:59.

They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.

:21:00.:21:14.

Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better

:21:15.:21:20.

Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber

:21:21.:21:24.

nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both

:21:25.:21:29.

sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are

:21:30.:21:33.

incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this

:21:34.:21:39.

out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic

:21:40.:21:43.

debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides

:21:44.:21:48.

who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that

:21:49.:21:52.

fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side

:21:53.:21:56.

as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber

:21:57.:22:00.

nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly

:22:01.:22:06.

posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.

:22:07.:22:11.

I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from

:22:12.:22:17.

sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress

:22:18.:22:23.

going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and

:22:24.:22:27.

good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of

:22:28.:22:33.

the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is

:22:34.:22:36.

actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the

:22:37.:22:40.

nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this

:22:41.:22:46.

week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and

:22:47.:22:48.

the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both

:22:49.:22:55.

worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the

:22:56.:22:59.

most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling

:23:00.:23:07.

and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you

:23:08.:23:11.

look at the number of people on social media, there are more from

:23:12.:23:16.

the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,

:23:17.:23:22.

from whatever quarter they come. This seemed to be connected to the

:23:23.:23:29.

office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was

:23:30.:23:33.

an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did

:23:34.:23:38.

not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on

:23:39.:23:47.

the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,

:23:48.:23:52.

but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an

:23:53.:23:57.

IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the

:23:58.:24:02.

population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running

:24:03.:24:05.

an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided

:24:06.:24:13.

voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried

:24:14.:24:20.

about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of

:24:21.:24:26.

all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She

:24:27.:24:29.

then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is

:24:30.:24:37.

like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some

:24:38.:24:43.

of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists

:24:44.:24:46.

culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to

:24:47.:24:52.

our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about

:24:53.:24:54.

her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are

:24:55.:25:00.

obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who

:25:01.:25:03.

were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same

:25:04.:25:09.

sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just

:25:10.:25:16.

part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned

:25:17.:25:21.

the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By

:25:22.:25:27.

common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive

:25:28.:25:29.

campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie, it

:25:30.:25:35.

hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign,

:25:36.:25:41.

compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly

:25:42.:25:46.

elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are

:25:47.:25:50.

less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to

:25:51.:25:59.

elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes

:26:00.:26:03.

Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you

:26:04.:26:12.

running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is

:26:13.:26:17.

even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there

:26:18.:26:22.

will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you

:26:23.:26:27.

so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign. The

:26:28.:26:32.

campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask

:26:33.:26:35.

questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People

:26:36.:26:40.

care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to

:26:41.:26:44.

them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is

:26:45.:26:50.

legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of

:26:51.:26:55.

scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally

:26:56.:27:01.

guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you

:27:02.:27:09.

are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of

:27:10.:27:14.

the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were

:27:15.:27:20.

mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at

:27:21.:27:24.

what they say, they are twisted, perhaps even evil minds. I would not

:27:25.:27:31.

disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number

:27:32.:27:35.

of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what

:27:36.:27:39.

people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting

:27:40.:27:43.

engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,

:27:44.:27:51.

we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the

:27:52.:27:56.

campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision

:27:57.:28:02.

for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both

:28:03.:28:06.

sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best

:28:07.:28:11.

light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not

:28:12.:28:15.

just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots

:28:16.:28:24.

would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that

:28:25.:28:31.

the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.

:28:32.:28:33.

The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can

:28:34.:28:40.

do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are

:28:41.:28:46.

taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I

:28:47.:28:52.

do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people

:28:53.:28:56.

across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we

:28:57.:29:00.

are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that

:29:01.:29:04.

family of nations that is the United Kingdom. At the same time, we have

:29:05.:29:10.

the strange and power over things like education and transport. I

:29:11.:29:16.

understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the

:29:17.:29:20.

tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would

:29:21.:29:25.

you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not

:29:26.:29:31.

watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in

:29:32.:29:36.

this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to

:29:37.:29:41.

keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint

:29:42.:29:45.

do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will

:29:46.:29:53.

annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie? I was supporting England. I was also

:29:54.:29:54.

supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last

:29:55.:30:00.

night's football match between England and Italy because

:30:01.:30:03.

you wanted to get an early night and England lost

:30:04.:30:06.

despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is

:30:07.:30:10.

in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation

:30:11.:30:13.

about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to

:30:14.:30:15.

tackle some of the big players. Well, this is

:30:16.:30:22.

the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have

:30:23.:30:35.

gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.

:30:36.:30:40.

Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is

:30:41.:30:46.

because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.

:30:47.:30:49.

They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.

:30:50.:30:51.

And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.

:30:52.:30:53.

Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would

:30:54.:31:03.

you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:04.:31:05.

packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:06.:31:05.

Thank you. No album, I'm afraid. collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:06.:31:13.

Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and

:31:14.:31:19.

two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has

:31:20.:31:25.

Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.

:31:26.:31:27.

These Tory ones are proving very popular

:31:28.:31:29.

since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.

:31:30.:31:32.

And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in

:31:33.:31:35.

Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.

:31:36.:31:43.

Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership

:31:44.:31:53.

soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU

:31:54.:31:56.

commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.

:31:57.:31:58.

Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary

:31:59.:32:00.

Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old

:32:01.:32:03.

Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?

:32:04.:32:07.

Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be

:32:08.:32:22.

spending the money on the world's poor and spending it well. Glad to

:32:23.:32:24.

hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour

:32:25.:32:26.

stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any

:32:27.:32:34.

of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect

:32:35.:32:37.

team. There have been grumblings

:32:38.:32:38.

about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking

:32:39.:32:41.

in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up

:32:42.:32:45.

in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -

:32:46.:32:56.

Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not

:32:57.:33:10.

want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody

:33:11.:33:15.

wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the

:33:16.:33:18.

Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a

:33:19.:33:22.

lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge

:33:23.:33:25.

strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in

:33:26.:33:28.

trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get

:33:29.:33:31.

himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has

:33:32.:33:37.

been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy

:33:38.:33:44.

amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for

:33:45.:33:47.

Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.

:33:48.:33:51.

Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,

:33:52.:33:54.

but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.

:33:55.:33:58.

You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed

:33:59.:34:08.

Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of

:34:09.:34:13.

that? Very significant. Happy collecting.

:34:14.:34:16.

These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't

:34:17.:34:19.

Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.

:34:20.:34:29.

I'm joined by three journalists who've been

:34:30.:34:31.

furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly

:34:32.:34:33.

weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,

:34:34.:34:36.

We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on

:34:37.:34:45.

the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately

:34:46.:34:50.

that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So

:34:51.:34:57.

why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for

:34:58.:35:04.

the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa

:35:05.:35:11.

gave a speech to the conference, and people said she was doing it just in

:35:12.:35:14.

case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.

:35:15.:35:19.

I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael

:35:20.:35:23.

Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to

:35:24.:35:26.

protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from

:35:27.:35:33.

Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you

:35:34.:35:36.

are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be

:35:37.:35:39.

involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic

:35:40.:35:50.

disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is

:35:51.:35:54.

their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges

:35:55.:35:59.

the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some

:36:00.:36:02.

pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless

:36:03.:36:06.

leading the most far right wing government we have had since the

:36:07.:36:09.

war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they

:36:10.:36:13.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.

:36:14.:36:16.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:17.:36:20.

charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there

:36:21.:36:23.

aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we

:36:24.:36:28.

assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything

:36:29.:36:32.

that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of

:36:33.:36:38.

cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from

:36:39.:36:43.

your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised

:36:44.:36:48.

view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about

:36:49.:36:53.

randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove

:36:54.:36:58.

as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves. --

:36:59.:37:04.

Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are

:37:05.:37:11.

certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert

:37:12.:37:13.

Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris

:37:14.:37:16.

Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man.

:37:17.:37:22.

Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team

:37:23.:37:25.

were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there

:37:26.:37:29.

and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the

:37:30.:37:34.

village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and

:37:35.:37:40.

you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What

:37:41.:37:49.

did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have

:37:50.:37:51.

words with you during the break. It's just gone 11.35, you're

:37:52.:37:54.

watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:55.:37:56.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll

:37:57.:37:59.

be talking about Ed Miliband's Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:38:00.:38:13.

in Northern Ireland. The police say they'll take a harder

:38:14.:38:15.

line on loyalist flags in one mixed area of Belfast but what are

:38:16.:38:18.

the chances of brokering a lasting We're joined by three party leaders

:38:19.:38:21.

to discuss this perennial problem. And with a draft document on racial

:38:22.:38:25.

equality here raising possible We ask the former Home Secretary,

:38:26.:38:30.

Alan Johnson, about how Westminster And here with their thoughts on that

:38:31.:38:35.

and more are commentators Cathy It's been dubbed the most

:38:36.:38:41.

significant development in years The police

:38:42.:38:50.

in south Belfast have said they'll be treating the erection of any more

:38:51.:38:57.

loyalist flags in one mixed area The SDLP has demanded

:38:58.:39:00.

the policy be extended across Northern Ireland, while

:39:01.:39:04.

loyalists call it an unworkable decision, and say action must now be

:39:05.:39:07.

taken against Irish tricolours. Joining me now to discuss

:39:08.:39:10.

the development are the Ulster Unionist leader, Mike Nesbitt, the

:39:11.:39:13.

SDLP leader, Alasdair McDonnell, and Do you accept that it's unreasonable

:39:14.:39:15.

for the Ormeau Road, which is 57% Catholic, to have 3 or 3 flags

:39:16.:39:26.

on virtually every lamp post? What is unreasonable is that Sinn

:39:27.:39:44.

Fein continues the decision. I think they need to describe what they mean

:39:45.:39:47.

by Loyalist flacks. The coverage I've seen on BBC was. Flags and the

:39:48.:39:52.

flag of the nation. I think we need to be careful about the tone. From

:39:53.:39:57.

my point of view, until questions are answered, we have a lot of

:39:58.:40:04.

questions to ask. What is unreasonable about the police

:40:05.:40:10.

thinking very carefully about the flying of Loyalist flags, Ulster

:40:11.:40:16.

flags, union flags in an area where people may be uncomfortable about

:40:17.:40:19.

that? What is unreasonable is that Sinn Fein had a meeting on their

:40:20.:40:29.

own, no other elected representatives is to any political

:40:30.:40:37.

party is entitled to do that. They should have consulted people.

:40:38.:40:41.

Considering people are going to get involved about discussions with

:40:42.:40:43.

flags and everything else, we have one party running off now. My

:40:44.:40:44.

problem with this is, date tricolour removed from his

:40:45.:41:22.

office. The IRA put up thousands of flights. Let's not get into this

:41:23.:41:25.

debate about how many flags there are. It doesn't matter if there is

:41:26.:41:31.

one or 100. There are flags flying fair. Republicans will put flags up

:41:32.:41:42.

in the next few months. What is your advice to loyalists watching this?

:41:43.:41:45.

Is it put up more flags or think seriously about taking them down? My

:41:46.:41:51.

advice to the police... What is your advice to the loyalists? Is this

:41:52.:41:56.

part of the rule of law? You have made that point. I'm asking you a

:41:57.:42:02.

question. I am responding to your question. What I'm saying to you is

:42:03.:42:07.

that we already, in this society, live in a two tiered justice system

:42:08.:42:10.

and I want to make sure that doesn't happen. That we ask you again. What

:42:11.:42:14.

is your advice to loyalists about flags? But more up or taken down?

:42:15.:42:23.

You can't answer that question. I will answer the question once get

:42:24.:42:33.

answers from the PS of I. I am relieved and pleased that the police

:42:34.:42:38.

have taken this small step because flags have been contentious and

:42:39.:42:42.

annoying and irritating to ordinary people for a long time. People are

:42:43.:42:46.

threatened and intimidated, and bullied in their own homes by folks

:42:47.:42:52.

going around putting up flags. The flags issue needs to be dealt with.

:42:53.:42:57.

As far as I'm concerned, the less flags the better. Sinn Fein did

:42:58.:43:02.

everybody a by lobbying to get the statement on Thursday night. I think

:43:03.:43:06.

it was the right thing to do and I think that quite simply, we have

:43:07.:43:10.

been pressing the police for the last 15 years to take some action

:43:11.:43:17.

around the illegal and inappropriate flying flags. This is no respect to

:43:18.:43:24.

the union flag, or, the Irish tricolour where it has been flown in

:43:25.:43:32.

reciprocal circumstances. Do you also have reservations? Sovereign

:43:33.:43:38.

flags should be flown with respect at appropriate places. They should

:43:39.:43:42.

not be used to poke people in the eye. They should not be used as an

:43:43.:43:47.

instrument of sectarian division. I cringed and some of the

:43:48.:43:53.

circumstances. My loyalties to the Irish tricolour. In some places, it

:43:54.:43:57.

is used and abused. Flags should not be used to disturb people living in

:43:58.:44:03.

their homes. Every year at this time, for the last 15 years, I have

:44:04.:44:08.

had since agitation from people, many of them from a unionist

:44:09.:44:11.

background, who just don't want flags flown in their face stop do

:44:12.:44:17.

you have reservations about the flying of these many flags in this

:44:18.:44:21.

area of south Belfast? The first thing is, I am clear that where we

:44:22.:44:26.

are is a long way from where we need to be. I think I know the steps we

:44:27.:44:30.

should take and the sequence they go in. We don't all agree on that. You

:44:31.:44:34.

can look around and see if there is a law you can use to try and

:44:35.:44:38.

restrict the flying flags in contested areas. That may change

:44:39.:44:42.

behaviour. It will not address the mindset. It's a bit like saying we

:44:43.:44:49.

empower the headmaster to issue six of the best. It might change a

:44:50.:44:54.

child's behaviour but it will not change mindsets. It is mindset is we

:44:55.:44:58.

need to get to. If loyalists are using the union flag as a

:44:59.:45:03.

provocation, they are making a fundamental mistake, confusing

:45:04.:45:08.

sovereignty with identity. I would say the flag is not about being

:45:09.:45:12.

provocative. It is about offering a symbol of protection, about being

:45:13.:45:18.

British, tolerance, of a pluralist, progressive society. Is that what

:45:19.:45:22.

the display suggests to you? Is that about pluralism and tolerance, or

:45:23.:45:28.

something else? Some people on the ground seemed to be considered. It

:45:29.:45:33.

is pulling the union flag down into a debate about identity. The union

:45:34.:45:36.

flag should fly well above that debate. Would you rather see these

:45:37.:45:42.

flags removed? If there is a lesson of the last 18 months, if you bring

:45:43.:45:46.

one union flag down, thousands more will go up. That sounds of the

:45:47.:45:52.

justification. What I want to do is take a practical approach to this.

:45:53.:45:56.

If you want to change behaviours, addressed the mindsets that inform

:45:57.:46:00.

those behaviours. In the meantime, what do you do about it? What do you

:46:01.:46:08.

say to loyalists? Should they put more flags up or should they bring

:46:09.:46:13.

these flags down? Enough is enough. We need to have a debate on the

:46:14.:46:18.

political leadership. That is why I have asked the party leaders to

:46:19.:46:21.

decouple the issues and taken in a sequence, so we have some degree of

:46:22.:46:25.

hope of success, in terms of parades, flags of the past. Billy

:46:26.:46:31.

Hutchinson, Mike Nesbitt is clear. He answered the question which is

:46:32.:46:35.

dead but more flags. US students the opportunity to do that and that is

:46:36.:46:39.

your right. How do you take this debate forward from here? It is

:46:40.:46:44.

clear listening to this debate that I'm not even clear who we are

:46:45.:46:46.

talking about. The word loyalist have been used. It seems to be that

:46:47.:46:53.

the loyalist Tim is used in a derogatory sense. I don't know what

:46:54.:47:00.

your description is. I heard you on the radio on Friday saying you were

:47:01.:47:03.

not a loyalist leader which is news to me. I am not a loyalist leader.

:47:04.:47:09.

What the problem is, there are more loyalist leaders than there are

:47:10.:47:13.

leaders of the Communist Party. What does it say in the title of the

:47:14.:47:19.

Progressive Unionist party? Are you disassociating yourself? What I am

:47:20.:47:25.

not to allow you to do is to say I am a loyalist and use it as a double

:47:26.:47:29.

treat him. It is when it comes to be media. If I use it, is to rob a true

:47:30.:47:36.

but if you use it it's not? What you have just done is you have said

:47:37.:47:41.

loyalists have put these flags up. How sure are you that they were not

:47:42.:47:47.

Unionists that personal? - that put them up. Stop trying to be clever. I

:47:48.:47:57.

am not trying to be clever. It is a fair assumption that loyalists put

:47:58.:48:01.

the flags up. Let's get the argument right. You saying it that it was

:48:02.:48:09.

protestants? I do. Is this what we want to get into, a game? I have

:48:10.:48:23.

said to you that I won't PSNI go to Republicans to tell them not to put

:48:24.:48:31.

the tricolour is up. You have said that loyalists have been warned. I

:48:32.:48:35.

would like to know who these loyalists are who have been warned.

:48:36.:48:40.

I don't know who they are. You will have two ask the peace. - police.

:48:41.:48:46.

The police said they spoke to individuals and they made it clear

:48:47.:48:48.

that if there was a repeat performance, they would regard that

:48:49.:48:56.

as a breach of the police. There is no mystery. The police monitor flags

:48:57.:49:02.

going up and they have accompanied... Again, we go back to

:49:03.:49:11.

the point. They have been present as the flags have been put up. They

:49:12.:49:14.

have been there to ensure that there was no social unrest, let's say.

:49:15.:49:20.

They were there. This has been a subject of contention with local

:49:21.:49:24.

people. A final thought from you, Mike Nesbitt. It's dancing on the

:49:25.:49:33.

head of a pin about who it was. Let me say, I need a political party,

:49:34.:49:39.

not a religious organisation. I get what Billy is saying. Sometimes,

:49:40.:49:44.

people who are from working-class areas think that people in

:49:45.:49:50.

middle-class areas look at them as loyalists. I don't like that. Beyond

:49:51.:49:57.

that, we are in a situation here which is potentially pretty

:49:58.:50:00.

volatile. The police are in an extremely difficult position, where,

:50:01.:50:03.

as always, they are going to have to make a decision between upholding

:50:04.:50:06.

the letter of the law and maintaining the peace. It is

:50:07.:50:11.

incumbent upon all political leaders to do their best to support the

:50:12.:50:14.

police and we need to have conversations with the people

:50:15.:50:16.

putting those flags up because I don't know whether they are using

:50:17.:50:20.

them to say this is the sovereign State of Northern Ireland or whether

:50:21.:50:23.

they are using them as a weapon. The latter is a mistake. We will leave

:50:24.:50:28.

it there for now. It's here from our guest commentators.

:50:29.:50:37.

Joining me is the University of Ulster academic,

:50:38.:50:39.

Dr Cathy Gormley-Heenan, and the former Victims'

:50:40.:50:41.

Where are we? We are getting somewhere in terms of establishing

:50:42.:50:47.

the difference between principles and practice. I was heartened to

:50:48.:50:52.

hear some of the language of those principles used by party leaders

:50:53.:50:56.

today. There was discussion of consultation, tolerance and respect

:50:57.:51:03.

and they are very important principles. What we are witnessing

:51:04.:51:07.

is an undermining of those principles in practice. I go back to

:51:08.:51:10.

the point about consultation. The question is this: Was the local

:51:11.:51:15.

community consulted about whether they wanted to have flags in their

:51:16.:51:22.

area corrected or not? As taxpayers in Belfast, is that something they

:51:23.:51:26.

are entitled to, to have a say in how their community is represented?

:51:27.:51:30.

The council will put up hanging baskets to make the area look nice

:51:31.:51:34.

and so on. Why is the community not have a say in how their area is

:51:35.:51:40.

represented? Patricia, do you think it matters? Maybe it is important

:51:41.:51:44.

whether these flags were put up by loyalists, Unionists or

:51:45.:51:47.

Protestants. It doesn't matter. What matters is what it was designed to

:51:48.:51:53.

do is mark out territory which can intimidate people. What I am more

:51:54.:51:56.

concerned about is the way the decision was made by the PSNI two

:51:57.:52:05.

treaties future putting up - to treat these putting up flags as a...

:52:06.:52:11.

Not without political leadership, without any sort of legislative

:52:12.:52:15.

framework to work against, what is going to happen is they will be left

:52:16.:52:18.

open to accusations of political policing. We are going to move back

:52:19.:52:23.

in the political process if that happens. What we need from the

:52:24.:52:28.

political parties and from the leadership is to move these

:52:29.:52:31.

discussions on around flags, parades and dealing with the past. We

:52:32.:52:35.

mustn't have that political vacuum, so that the PSNI is operating on a

:52:36.:52:41.

legislative framework as they should do. Thanks to our pit leaders for

:52:42.:52:43.

joining us this morning. Could the proposals be revived? I

:52:44.:53:00.

have been saying for some time that I believe there is a window of

:53:01.:53:05.

opportunity between the local and European elections and the start of

:53:06.:53:12.

the summer. Flags still appeared to be a major hurdle. People have been

:53:13.:53:19.

saying we don't want these flags up. Let this not turn into, they are

:53:20.:53:30.

away every flag in the law. They are not neighbourly. Details of the

:53:31.:53:44.

long-awaited policy... The first and deputy first ministers are invited

:53:45.:53:48.

to the World Cup. Martin McGuinness finds out just how cut-throat show

:53:49.:54:01.

business can be. The Guardian describes him as a rare

:54:02.:54:05.

human among the aliens on planet Westminster.

:54:06.:54:06.

Alan Johnson, the former Labour Home Secretary,

:54:07.:54:08.

trade union leader, postman and now award-winning author,

:54:09.:54:10.

is taking part in the Belfast Book Festival this weekend but first,

:54:11.:54:13.

You continue as an active politician. But I suppose it is a

:54:14.:54:29.

different kind of involvement to the involvement you had over a long

:54:30.:54:30.

period of time. Your first ministerial post was

:54:31.:54:32.

in 1999 at the DTI, just a year How much were you aware

:54:33.:54:35.

of events here impacting Watching with appreciation for the

:54:36.:54:56.

time being spent on it. John Major started the process. I was a union

:54:57.:54:59.

leader over here. I was coming up here when postal workers were being

:55:00.:55:04.

used for proxy bombings. 21 of our members were killed in the course of

:55:05.:55:10.

action. I knew from our members over here just what a difficult situation

:55:11.:55:17.

they were in and the real groundswell for peace and

:55:18.:55:22.

politicians to dedicate more time to actual achieving that piece. The

:55:23.:55:27.

Good Friday agreement and all the stuff that arises from it, and all

:55:28.:55:32.

the problems that were there for the very brave people over here who were

:55:33.:55:35.

trying to show that you can achieve things through politics, which is a

:55:36.:55:38.

very important lesson I think for younger people in particular. We've

:55:39.:55:44.

just witnessed another studio discussion in which political

:55:45.:55:47.

leaders didn't agree. Does it surprise you? Is it disappoints you

:55:48.:55:54.

that they are still talking about key outstanding issues which they

:55:55.:55:59.

cannot get around? It doesn't surprise me it doesn't disappoint me

:56:00.:56:01.

in the sense that you are having a discussion. I was walking around

:56:02.:56:05.

Belfast just a day. I came over here throughout the late 70s and 80s.

:56:06.:56:11.

This is a transformed society. But you're not going to get rid of all

:56:12.:56:17.

those strong feelings about symbols like flags for instance very

:56:18.:56:22.

quickly. There are lots of debates which go on elsewhere. They are

:56:23.:56:33.

similar. Your former leader, Tony Blair, has been doing the rounds of

:56:34.:56:37.

the television and radio studios today talking about to go to war

:56:38.:56:45.

with Iraq, in the context of what has been happening with ISIS. He

:56:46.:56:54.

says it was still the right decision. Do you still think it was

:56:55.:56:59.

the right decision? Yes. It was the first time we had never been to war

:57:00.:57:03.

with the decision of Parliament. There was a debate in Parliament in

:57:04.:57:07.

2003. I voted in favour. I think the problem with looking with things

:57:08.:57:14.

with hindsight and saying this wouldn't have happened if we hadn't

:57:15.:57:18.

got into Iraq in 2003, is that you forget to things. Number one, you

:57:19.:57:26.

had Saddam Hussein, who was the subject of eight Article seven

:57:27.:57:29.

resolutions from United Nations. He committed genocide, not once but

:57:30.:57:34.

twice, against his own people. He had invaded invading countries. The

:57:35.:57:37.

two biggest crimes and international law. He had invaded invading

:57:38.:57:39.

countries. The two biggest crimes and international law. We have been

:57:40.:57:42.

the subject of years of UN resolutions that he ignored. We

:57:43.:57:45.

cannot ignore the fact somewhat if we had let him get away after the

:57:46.:57:51.

resolution? What would that have done to Saddam? He was a despot. The

:57:52.:58:02.

beheaded trade unionist. There were no weapons of mass destruction.

:58:03.:58:08.

Everyone thought there were mass dash there were weapons. It wasn't

:58:09.:58:11.

the main reason. We went to war because he had ignored the UN

:58:12.:58:16.

resolutions. It was a major part of the justification. We know he had

:58:17.:58:20.

weapons of mass destruction. He had used them previously, twice. It

:58:21.:58:24.

wasn't just as, France and Germany, who decided not to be part of the

:58:25.:58:28.

invasion, thought he had weapons of mass destruction. You are here to

:58:29.:58:34.

take part in the book Festival. Did you regret the fact you are now

:58:35.:58:39.

writing your memoirs instead of being the leader of the party? No, I

:58:40.:58:46.

don't regret. I don't regret anything whatsoever. I'm glad I

:58:47.:58:50.

stood for deputy leader. Harriet Harman won it. I said at the time, I

:58:51.:58:54.

was the best man in the race but there was a better woman, as is

:58:55.:59:00.

often the case. I have loved the process of writing about my

:59:01.:59:03.

childhood and trying to recreate my mother who died when I was very

:59:04.:59:07.

young, and telling a story of two incredible women, my sister and

:59:08.:59:09.

mother. That has been great. I might have been able to do that if I was

:59:10.:59:14.

debited leader, who knows, but it's still to be involved in politics as

:59:15.:59:18.

a backbencher and to be able to write and attend festivals exist. If

:59:19.:59:22.

anyone thinks the political meeting is dead and finish, come to a book

:59:23.:59:26.

Festival. They are alive and well. You are in for a roasting this

:59:27.:59:33.

afternoon. Thanks for joining us. If you final thoughts. - a feud final

:59:34.:59:43.

thoughts. A quick word on Iraq. Does it concern you, what is happening at

:59:44.:59:46.

the moment? It is usually concerning and it is a legacy of imperial

:59:47.:59:53.

interference. It's about going into Iraq, based on an erroneous decision

:59:54.:59:57.

about weapons of mass destruction. The legacy of that has been to

:59:58.:00:02.

galvanise and politicise the population of that country. I think

:00:03.:00:07.

that is why we are seeing the grossing - growth in ISIS. To me

:00:08.:00:17.

Blair is putting forward the line of denial is not just a river in Egypt.

:00:18.:00:22.

It needs to be taken responsibility for, how the British and American

:00:23.:00:27.

intervention has an influence. We had a leaked draft racial... A

:00:28.:00:34.

regional immigration policy. Is that workable? Immigration policy is

:00:35.:00:43.

reserved matter. It's not the responsibility of the devolved

:00:44.:00:45.

administration. Scotland has talked that recently. There are examples in

:00:46.:00:52.

Canada for example. The work ability of a differentiated immigration

:00:53.:00:56.

policy I don't think that is at the top of the political agenda.

:00:57.:00:59.

Interesting to hear your thoughts. Another busy programme. Goodbye.

:01:00.:01:11.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:12.:01:14.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:15.:01:16.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:17.:01:20.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:21.:01:23.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:24.:01:27.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:28.:01:36.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:37.:01:42.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:43.:01:47.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:48.:01:52.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:53.:01:57.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:01:58.:02:01.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:02.:02:07.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:08.:02:09.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing --

:02:10.:02:13.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:14.:02:22.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:23.:02:27.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:28.:02:32.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:33.:02:40.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:41.:02:44.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:45.:02:47.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:48.:02:51.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:52.:02:52.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:53.:03:04.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:05.:03:09.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:10.:03:12.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:13.:03:16.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:17.:03:20.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:21.:03:24.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:25.:03:33.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:34.:03:38.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:39.:03:43.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel's nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:44.:03:46.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:47.:03:53.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:54.:04:01.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:02.:04:07.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:08.:04:13.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:14.:04:17.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:18.:04:22.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:23.:04:27.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:28.:04:31.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:32.:04:35.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:36.:04:42.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:43.:04:45.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:46.:04:49.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:50.:04:54.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:55.:04:59.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:00.:05:06.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:07.:05:10.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:11.:05:13.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:14.:05:20.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:21.:05:25.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:26.:05:28.

head of the European commission, what chance do you have of

:05:29.:05:31.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:32.:05:39.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:40.:05:44.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:45.:05:46.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:47.:05:52.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:53.:05:58.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:05:59.:06:06.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:07.:06:10.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:11.:06:17.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:18.:06:25.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:26.:06:30.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:31.:06:37.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:38.:06:40.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:41.:06:43.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:44.:06:48.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:49.:06:54.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:55.:06:59.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:00.:07:01.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:02.:07:06.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:07.:07:15.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:16.:07:21.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:22.:07:25.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:26.:07:30.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:31.:07:36.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:37.:07:41.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:42.:07:45.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:46.:07:49.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:50.:07:55.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:56.:08:01.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:02.:08:04.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:05.:08:11.

advisers or himself? In the end, himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:12.:08:20.

On this one, he called it wrong. It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:21.:08:28.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:29.:08:31.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:32.:08:38.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:39.:08:44.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:45.:08:52.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:53.:08:58.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:08:59.:09:00.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:01.:09:06.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:07.:09:10.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:11.:09:16.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:17.:09:17.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:18.:09:21.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:22.:09:28.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:29.:09:32.

carefully. That was the mistake. You get the impression from the picture

:09:33.:09:35.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:36.:09:38.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:39.:09:43.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:44.:09:45.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:46.:09:49.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:50.:09:55.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:56.:09:58.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:09:59.:10:03.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:04.:10:07.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:08.:10:12.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:13.:10:16.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:17.:10:20.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:21.:10:24.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:25.:10:30.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:31.:10:37.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband, all

:10:38.:10:40.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:41.:10:45.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:46.:10:50.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:51.:10:54.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:55.:10:59.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:00.:11:04.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:05.:11:06.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:07.:11:10.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:11.:11:16.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:17.:11:20.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:21.:11:25.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:26.:11:29.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:30.:11:34.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:35.:11:38.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:39.:11:41.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:42.:11:49.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:50.:11:53.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:54.:11:56.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose. I

:11:57.:12:01.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:02.:12:03.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:04.:12:06.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:07.:12:10.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:11.:12:15.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:16.:12:19.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:20.:12:22.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:23.:12:28.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:29.:12:31.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:32.:12:36.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:37.:12:42.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:43.:12:47.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:48.:12:50.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:51.:12:55.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:56.:13:00.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:01.:13:03.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:04.:13:08.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:09.:13:09.

you. We are running out of time. The Daily Politics will be back

:13:10.:13:11.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:12.:13:16.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:17.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:52.

of medieval England.

:13:53.:13:59.

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