22/06/2014 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


22/06/2014

Mark Carruthers looks at the political developments of the week and questions policy makers on the key issues.


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Transcript


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Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies.

:00:36.:00:43.

So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories.

:00:44.:00:46.

We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got

:00:47.:00:50.

Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes

:00:51.:00:56.

Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns.

:00:57.:01:01.

Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader.

:01:02.:01:12.

And what of this leader? He's apparently "toxic" on the doorstep.

:01:13.:01:18.

And coming up here - Sammy Wilson and Alex Attwood

:01:19.:01:20.

What impact will it have in stopping racism here?

:01:21.:01:25.

And we look back at the life of Gerry Conlon who died yesterday.

:01:26.:01:28.

promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress?

:01:29.:01:40.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters

:01:41.:01:47.

First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now

:01:48.:01:55.

largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means

:01:56.:01:57.

they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases.

:01:58.:02:03.

Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating

:02:04.:02:06.

their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken.

:02:07.:02:09.

They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's

:02:10.:02:11.

biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital.

:02:12.:02:15.

And there are reports they might now have taken the power

:02:16.:02:17.

Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS,

:02:18.:02:26.

far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it.

:02:27.:02:32.

Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands

:02:33.:02:35.

No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good

:02:36.:02:52.

options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much

:02:53.:02:56.

support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over

:02:57.:03:02.

about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate

:03:03.:03:05.

their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be

:03:06.:03:11.

seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their

:03:12.:03:17.

support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni

:03:18.:03:26.

and Shia Muslim populations don't live in clearly bordered areas, but

:03:27.:03:29.

in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the

:03:30.:03:33.

break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and

:03:34.:03:37.

long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take

:03:38.:03:45.

Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since

:03:46.:03:51.

Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what

:03:52.:03:55.

is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything

:03:56.:04:00.

does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between

:04:01.:04:06.

Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First

:04:07.:04:12.

World War. That is gone as well. An astonishingly humbling situation the

:04:13.:04:15.

West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge --

:04:16.:04:23.

chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the

:04:24.:04:26.

autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't

:04:27.:04:32.

do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement.

:04:33.:04:36.

And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is

:04:37.:04:39.

some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back

:04:40.:04:44.

from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week

:04:45.:04:49.

that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in

:04:50.:04:53.

Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that

:04:54.:04:57.

have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty

:04:58.:05:02.

sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the

:05:03.:05:14.

White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in

:05:15.:05:18.

technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and

:05:19.:05:22.

what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to

:05:23.:05:26.

encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the

:05:27.:05:31.

government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in

:05:32.:05:36.

Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so

:05:37.:05:41.

this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets

:05:42.:05:44.

fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big

:05:45.:05:48.

piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing

:05:49.:05:52.

anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what

:05:53.:05:58.

most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have

:05:59.:06:02.

George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they

:06:03.:06:07.

cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George

:06:08.:06:10.

Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach

:06:11.:06:14.

for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground.

:06:15.:06:18.

All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion

:06:19.:06:20.

The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary

:06:21.:06:25.

and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan.

:06:26.:06:28.

In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State

:06:29.:06:33.

for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting

:06:34.:06:39.

people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill.

:06:40.:06:42.

her first interview in the job she threatened "We would

:06:43.:06:45.

But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition

:06:46.:06:48.

has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare.

:06:49.:06:53.

Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap -

:06:54.:06:55.

They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal

:06:56.:07:02.

Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and

:07:03.:07:05.

And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts.

:07:06.:07:12.

This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training

:07:13.:07:16.

That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost

:07:17.:07:21.

And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will

:07:22.:07:26.

Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion.

:07:27.:07:34.

And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon

:07:35.:07:37.

have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means.

:07:38.:07:43.

Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories?

:07:44.:07:56.

We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this

:07:57.:08:00.

government, the bill will be ?13 million more than the government set

:08:01.:08:04.

out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to

:08:05.:08:09.

control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next

:08:10.:08:12.

Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first

:08:13.:08:16.

parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but

:08:17.:08:21.

that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in

:08:22.:08:26.

line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where

:08:27.:08:32.

flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise? We

:08:33.:08:36.

have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they

:08:37.:08:41.

haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion

:08:42.:08:43.

more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because

:08:44.:08:49.

the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people

:08:50.:08:52.

are reliant on tax credits. They are not building

:08:53.:08:55.

are reliant on tax credits. They are relying on housing benefit.

:08:56.:08:57.

are reliant on tax credits. They are a record number of people on zero

:08:58.:08:58.

hours contracts. I'm a record number of people on zero

:08:59.:09:04.

if you will cut welfare if you get in power. Nobody is saying that the

:09:05.:09:08.

cost of welfare is going to fall. The welfare cap sees that

:09:09.:09:12.

cost of welfare is going to fall. gradually. That is a Tory cap.

:09:13.:09:18.

you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If

:09:19.:09:24.

you've accepted it. You're being the had a welfare

:09:25.:09:24.

you've accepted it. You're being the breached it in every year of the

:09:25.:09:29.

parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out

:09:30.:09:30.

because higher than the government set out

:09:31.:09:35.

You read the polls, and the party does lots of its own polling,

:09:36.:09:38.

You read the polls, and the party you're scared of being seen as the

:09:39.:09:40.

welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare

:09:41.:09:47.

stuff? We are the party of work, not welfare. The Labour Party was set up

:09:48.:09:49.

in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and

:09:50.:09:52.

we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make

:09:53.:09:56.

no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party,

:09:57.:10:01.

we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document

:10:02.:10:05.

admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is

:10:06.:10:09.

your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most

:10:10.:10:14.

recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on

:10:15.:10:17.

Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and

:10:18.:10:21.

chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith.

:10:22.:10:26.

Your own internal document means that

:10:27.:10:27.

Your own internal document means welfare reform. That is why we have

:10:28.:10:33.

shown some of this tough things we will do like the announcement that

:10:34.:10:38.

Ed Miliband made earlier this week, that young people without basic

:10:39.:10:41.

qualifications won't be entitled to just sign on for benefits, they have

:10:42.:10:45.

to sign up for training in order to receive support. That is the right

:10:46.:10:48.

thing to do by that group of young people, because they need skills to

:10:49.:10:56.

progress. We will, once that. -- we will, onto that. You say you

:10:57.:11:03.

criticise the government that it had a cap and wouldn't have met it, but

:11:04.:11:06.

every money-saving welfare reform, you voted against it. How is that

:11:07.:11:14.

being tougher? The most recent bout was the cap on overall welfare

:11:15.:11:17.

expenditure, and we went through the lobbies and voted for the Tories.

:11:18.:11:24.

You voted against the benefit cap, welfare rating, you voted against,

:11:25.:11:26.

child benefit schemes, you voted against. You can't say we voted

:11:27.:11:30.

against everything when we voted with the Conservatives in the most

:11:31.:11:35.

recent bill with a cap on Social Security. It's just not correct to

:11:36.:11:41.

say. The last time we voted, we walked through the lobby with them.

:11:42.:11:44.

You voted on the principle of the cap. You voted on every step that

:11:45.:11:51.

would allow the cap to be met. Every single one. The most recent vote was

:11:52.:11:56.

not on the principle of the cap, it was on a cap of Social Security in

:11:57.:12:00.

the next Parliament and we signed up for that. It was Ed Miliband who

:12:01.:12:03.

called her that earlier on. Which welfare reform did you vote for? We

:12:04.:12:10.

voted for the cap. Other than that? We have supported universal credit.

:12:11.:12:14.

You voted against it in the third reading. We voted against some of

:12:15.:12:19.

the specifics. If you look at universal credit, they have had to

:12:20.:12:24.

write off nearly ?900 million of spending. I'm not on the rights and

:12:25.:12:29.

wrongs, I'm trying to work out what you voted for. Some of the things we

:12:30.:12:33.

are going to go further than the government with. For example,

:12:34.:12:38.

cutting benefits for young people who don't sign of the training. The

:12:39.:12:41.

government had introduced that. For example, saying that the richest

:12:42.:12:45.

pensioners should not get the winter fuel allowance, that is something

:12:46.:12:48.

the government haven't signed up. You would get that under Labour and

:12:49.:12:51.

this government haven't signed up for it. ?100 million on the winter

:12:52.:12:55.

fuel allowance and ?65 million on youth training. ?165 million. How

:12:56.:13:02.

big is the welfare budget? The cap would apply to ?120 billion. And

:13:03.:13:11.

you've saved 125 -- 165 million? Those are cuts that we said we would

:13:12.:13:14.

do in government. If you look at the real prize from the changes Ed

:13:15.:13:19.

Miliband announced in the youth allowance, it's not the short-term

:13:20.:13:22.

savings, it's the fact that each of these young people, who are

:13:23.:13:25.

currently on unemployment benefits without the skills we know they need

:13:26.:13:29.

to succeed in life, they will cost the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will

:13:30.:13:35.

come onto that. You mentioned universal credit, which the

:13:36.:13:39.

government regards as the flagship reform. It's had lots of troubles

:13:40.:13:43.

with it and it merges six benefits into one. You voted against it in

:13:44.:13:49.

the third reading and given lukewarm support in the past. We have not

:13:50.:13:53.

said he would abandon it, but now you say you are for it. You are all

:13:54.:14:00.

over the place. We set up the rescue committee in autumn of last year

:14:01.:14:03.

because we have seen from the National Audit Office and the Public

:14:04.:14:07.

Accounts Committee, report after report showing that the project is

:14:08.:14:12.

massively overbudget and is not going to be delivered according to

:14:13.:14:16.

the government timetable. We set up the committee because we believe in

:14:17.:14:18.

the principle of universal credit and think it is the right thing to

:14:19.:14:22.

do. Can you tell us now if you will keep it or not? Because there is no

:14:23.:14:28.

transparency and we have no idea. We are awash with information. We are

:14:29.:14:33.

not. The government, in the most recent National audit Forest --

:14:34.:14:39.

National Audit Office statement said it was a reset project. This is

:14:40.:14:43.

really important. This is a flagship government programme, and it's going

:14:44.:14:49.

to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver, and we don't know what sort of state

:14:50.:14:53.

it is in, so we have said that if we win at the next election, we will

:14:54.:14:57.

pause that for three months and calling... Will you stop the pilots?

:14:58.:15:04.

We don't know what status they will have. We would stop the build of the

:15:05.:15:09.

system for three months, calling the National Audit Office to do awards

:15:10.:15:14.

and all report. The government don't need to do this until the next

:15:15.:15:19.

general election, they could do it today. Stop throwing good money

:15:20.:15:22.

after bad and get a grip of this incredibly important programme. You

:15:23.:15:27.

said you don't know enough to a view now. So when you were invited to a

:15:28.:15:32.

job centre where universal credit is being rolled out to see how it was

:15:33.:15:38.

working, you refused to go. Why? We asked were a meeting with Iain

:15:39.:15:41.

Duncan Smith and he cancelled the meeting is three times. I'm talking

:15:42.:15:44.

about the visit when you were offered to go to a job centre and

:15:45.:15:48.

you refused. We had an appointment to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the

:15:49.:15:52.

Department for Work and Pensions and said he cancelled and was not

:15:53.:15:56.

available, but he wanted us to go to the job centre. We wanted to talk to

:15:57.:15:59.

him and his officials, which she did. Would it be more useful to go

:16:00.:16:05.

to the job centre and find out how it was working. He's going to tell

:16:06.:16:06.

you it's working fine. Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they

:16:07.:16:24.

are working to help the people trying to claim universal credit.

:16:25.:16:29.

Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three meetings. That is another issue, I

:16:30.:16:36.

was asking about the job centre. It is not another issue because Iain

:16:37.:16:42.

Duncan Smith fogged us off. This week you said that jobless

:16:43.:16:45.

youngsters who won't take training will lose their welfare payments.

:16:46.:16:50.

How many young people are not in work training or education? There

:16:51.:16:58.

are 140,000 young people claiming benefits at the moment, but 850,000

:16:59.:17:05.

young people who are not in work at the moment. This applies to around

:17:06.:17:13.

100,000 young people. There are actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds,

:17:14.:17:20.

not in work, training or education. Your proposal only applies to

:17:21.:17:28.

100,000 of them, why? This is applying to young people who are

:17:29.:17:32.

signing on for benefits rather than signing up for training. We want to

:17:33.:17:39.

make sure that all young people... Why only 100,000? They

:17:40.:17:44.

currently getting job-seeker's allowance. We are saying you

:17:45.:17:53.

currently getting job-seeker's just sign up to... Can I get you

:17:54.:17:58.

currently getting job-seeker's respond to this, the number of

:17:59.:18:00.

people not in work, training respond to this, the number of

:18:01.:18:01.

than you are respond to this, the number of

:18:02.:18:15.

turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue

:18:16.:18:24.

about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got

:18:25.:18:29.

skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a

:18:30.:18:34.

job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at

:18:35.:18:36.

the moment. This is about trying -year-olds signing onto benefits at

:18:37.:18:43.

address that problem to make sure all young people have the skills

:18:44.:18:47.

is to take away part of the dole is to take away part of the dole

:18:48.:18:52.

unless young unemployed people agree to study for level

:18:53.:18:58.

qualifications, the equivalent of an AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these

:18:59.:19:03.

people have the literary skills of a nine-year-old. After all that failed

:19:04.:19:09.

education, how are you going to train them to a level standard? We

:19:10.:19:17.

are saying that anyone who doesn't have that a level or equivalent

:19:18.:19:21.

qualification will be required to go back to college. We are not saying

:19:22.:19:27.

that within a year they have to get up to that level but these are

:19:28.:19:31.

exactly the sorts of people... These people have been failed by your

:19:32.:19:35.

exactly the sorts of people... These education system. These people are,

:19:36.:19:38.

for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative

:19:39.:19:43.

government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a

:19:44.:19:47.

Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs

:19:48.:19:53.

whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11

:19:54.:19:59.

years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year

:20:00.:20:03.

everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are

:20:04.:20:07.

one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the

:20:08.:20:11.

reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that

:20:12.:20:19.

should not the left languishing. I went to college in Hackney if you

:20:20.:20:25.

you are -- a few weeks ago and there was a dyslexic boy studying painting

:20:26.:20:30.

and decorating. In school they decided he was a troublemaker and

:20:31.:20:34.

that he didn't want to learn. He went back to college because he

:20:35.:20:39.

wanted to get the skills. He said that it wasn't until he went back to

:20:40.:20:44.

college that he could pick up a newspaper and read it, it made a

:20:45.:20:49.

huge difference but too many people are let down by the system. I am

:20:50.:20:55.

wondering how the training will make up for an education system that

:20:56.:20:59.

failed them but let's move on to your leader. Look at this graph of

:21:00.:21:04.

Ed Miliband's popularity. This is the net satisfaction with him, it is

:21:05.:21:09.

dreadful. The trend continues to climb since he became leader of the

:21:10.:21:16.

Labour Party, why? What you have seen is another 2300 Labour

:21:17.:21:19.

councillors since Ed Miliband became the leader of the Labour Party. You

:21:20.:21:25.

saw in the elections a month ago that... Why is the satisfaction rate

:21:26.:21:33.

falling? We can look at polls or actual election results and the fact

:21:34.:21:38.

that we have got another 2000 Labour councillors, more people voting

:21:39.:21:42.

Labour, the opinion polls today show that if there was a general election

:21:43.:21:47.

today we would have a majority of more than 40, he must be doing

:21:48.:21:54.

something right. Why do almost 50% of voters want to replace him as

:21:55.:22:00.

leader? Why do 50% and more think that he is not up to the job? The

:22:01.:22:06.

more people see Ed Miliband, the less impressed they are. The British

:22:07.:22:13.

people seem to like him less. The election strategy I suggest that

:22:14.:22:17.

follows from that is that you should keep Ed Miliband under wraps until

:22:18.:22:22.

the election. Let's look at actually what happens when people get a

:22:23.:22:27.

chance to vote, when they get that opportunity we have seen more Labour

:22:28.:22:31.

councillors, more Labour members of the European Parliament...

:22:32.:22:38.

Oppositions always get more. The opinion polls today, one of them

:22:39.:22:45.

shows Labour four points ahead. You have not done that well in local

:22:46.:22:49.

government elections or European elections. Why don't people like

:22:50.:22:55.

him? I think we have done incredibly well in elections. People must like

:22:56.:23:00.

a lot of the things Labour and Ed Miliband are doing because we are

:23:01.:23:04.

winning back support across the country. We won local councils in

:23:05.:23:09.

places like Hammersmith and Fulham, Crawley, Hastings, key places that

:23:10.:23:15.

Labour need to win back at the general election next year. Even you

:23:16.:23:19.

have said traditional Labour supporters are abandoning the party.

:23:20.:23:25.

That is what Ed Miliband has said as well. We have got this real concern

:23:26.:23:30.

about what has happened. If you look at the elections in May, 60% of

:23:31.:23:36.

people didn't even bother going to vote. That is a profound issue not

:23:37.:23:41.

just for Labour. You said traditional voters who perhaps at

:23:42.:23:46.

times we took for granted are now being offered an alternative. Why

:23:47.:23:50.

did you take them for granted? This is what Ed Miliband said. I am not

:23:51.:23:56.

saying anything Ed Miliband himself has not said. When he ran for the

:23:57.:24:02.

leadership he said that we took too many people for granted and we

:24:03.:24:07.

needed to give people positive reasons to vote Labour, he has been

:24:08.:24:11.

doing that. He has been there for four years and you are saying you

:24:12.:24:14.

still take them for granted. Why? I am saying that for too long we have

:24:15.:24:19.

taken them for granted. We are on track to win the general election

:24:20.:24:23.

next year and that will defy all the odds. You are going to win... Ed

:24:24.:24:34.

Miliband will win next year and make a great Prime Minister.

:24:35.:24:38.

Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the risk of intruding into private

:24:39.:24:43.

grief. The party is still smarting from dire results in the European

:24:44.:24:47.

and Local Elections. The only poll Nick Clegg has won in recent times

:24:48.:24:50.

is to be voted the most unpopular leader of a party in modern British

:24:51.:24:55.

history. No surprise there have been calls for him to go, though that

:24:56.:24:59.

still looks unlikely. Here's Eleanor.

:25:00.:24:59.

Liberal Democrats celebrating, something we haven't seen for a

:25:00.:25:04.

while. This victory back in 1998 led to a decade of power for the Lib

:25:05.:25:10.

Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast to the city's political landscape

:25:11.:25:16.

today. At its height the party had 69 local councillors, now down to

:25:17.:25:21.

just three. The scale of the challenge facing Nick Clegg and the

:25:22.:25:26.

Lib Dems is growing. The party is rock bottom in the polls,

:25:27.:25:31.

consistently in single figures. It was wiped out in the European

:25:32.:25:36.

elections losing all but one of its 12 MEPs and in the local elections

:25:37.:25:41.

it lost 42% of the seats that it was defending. But on Merseyside, Nick

:25:42.:25:48.

Clegg was putting on a brave face. We did badly in Liverpool,

:25:49.:25:52.

Manchester and London in particular, we did well in other places. But you

:25:53.:25:59.

are right, we did badly in some of those big cities and I have

:26:00.:26:01.

initiated a review, those big cities and I have

:26:02.:26:06.

naturally, to understand what went wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems

:26:07.:26:12.

across the country get on with some serious soul-searching, there is an

:26:13.:26:16.

admission that his is the leader of the party who is failing to hit the

:26:17.:26:20.

right notes. Knocking on doors in Liverpool, I have to tell you that

:26:21.:26:25.

Nick Clegg is not a popular person. Some might use the word toxic and I

:26:26.:26:31.

find this very difficult because I know Nick very well and I see a

:26:32.:26:35.

principal person who passionately believes in what he is doing and he

:26:36.:26:40.

is a nice guy. As a result of his popularity, what has happened to the

:26:41.:26:52.

core vote? In parts of the country, we are down to just three

:26:53.:26:55.

councillors like Liverpool for example. You also lose the

:26:56.:26:59.

deliverers and fundraisers and the organisers and the members of course

:27:00.:27:03.

so all of that will have to be rebuilt. As they start fermenting

:27:04.:27:09.

process, local parties across the country and here in Liverpool have

:27:10.:27:13.

been voting on whether there should be a leadership contest. We had two

:27:14.:27:20.

choices to flush out and have a go at Nick Clegg or to positively

:27:21.:27:25.

decide we would sharpen up the campaign and get back on the

:27:26.:27:29.

streets, and by four to one ratio we decided to get back on the streets.

:27:30.:27:34.

We are bruised and battered but we are still here, the orange flag is

:27:35.:27:37.

We are bruised and battered but we still flying and one day it will fly

:27:38.:27:42.

over this building again, Liverpool town hall. But do people want the

:27:43.:27:48.

Lib Dems back in charge in this city? I certainly wouldn't vote for

:27:49.:27:52.

them. Their performance in Government and the way they have

:27:53.:27:56.

left their promises down, I could not vote for them again. I voted Lib

:27:57.:28:03.

Dem in the last election because of the university tuition fees and I

:28:04.:28:09.

would never vote for them again because they broke their promise.

:28:10.:28:13.

The Lib Dems are awful, broken promises and

:28:14.:28:15.

The Lib Dems are awful, broken wouldn't vote for them. This is the

:28:16.:28:19.

declaration of the results for the Northwest... Last month, as other

:28:20.:28:22.

party celebrated in the north-west, the Lib Dems here lost their only

:28:23.:28:29.

MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is concern the party doesn't know how

:28:30.:28:34.

to turn its fortunes around. We don't have an answer to that, if we

:28:35.:28:40.

did we would be grasping it with both hands. We will do our best to

:28:41.:28:47.

hold onto the places where we still have seats but as for the rest of

:28:48.:28:52.

the country where we have been hollowed out, we don't know how to

:28:53.:28:57.

start again until the next general election is out of the way. After

:28:58.:29:01.

their disastrous performance in the European elections, pressure is

:29:02.:29:04.

growing for the party to shift its stance. I think there has to be a

:29:05.:29:15.

lancing of the wound, there should in a referendum and the Liberal

:29:16.:29:22.

Democrats should be calling it. The rest of Europe once this because

:29:23.:29:26.

they are fed up with Britain being unable to make up its mind. The Lib

:29:27.:29:32.

Dems are now suffering the effects of being in Government. The party's

:29:33.:29:36.

problem, choosing the right course to regain political credibility.

:29:37.:29:43.

We can now speak to form a Lib Dems leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back

:29:44.:29:48.

to the Sunday Politics. Even your own activists say that Nick Clegg is

:29:49.:29:54.

toxic. How will that change between now and the election? When you have

:29:55.:29:59.

had disappointing results, but you have to do is to rebuild. You pick

:30:00.:30:04.

yourself up and start all over again, and the reason why the

:30:05.:30:09.

Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats in the House of Commons now is

:30:10.:30:14.

because we picked ourselves up, we took every opportunity and we have

:30:15.:30:15.

rebuilt from the bottom up. least popular leader in modern

:30:16.:30:28.

history and more unpopular than your mate Gordon Brown. You are running

:30:29.:30:33.

out of time. No one believes that being the leader of a modern

:30:34.:30:37.

political party in the UK is an easy job. Both Ed Miliband and David

:30:38.:30:40.

Cameron must have had cause to think, over breakfast this morning,

:30:41.:30:45.

when they saw the headlines in some of the Sunday papers. Of course it

:30:46.:30:48.

is a difficult job but it was pointed out a moment or two ago that

:30:49.:30:53.

Nick Clegg is a man of principle and enormous resilience if you consider

:30:54.:30:56.

what he had to put up with, and in my view, he is quite clearly the

:30:57.:30:59.

person best qualified to lead the party between now and the general

:31:00.:31:03.

election and through the election campaign, and beyond. So why don't

:31:04.:31:08.

people like him? We have had to take some pretty difficult decisions,

:31:09.:31:12.

and, of course, people didn't expect that. If you look back to the rather

:31:13.:31:19.

heady days of the rose garden behind ten Downing St, people thought it

:31:20.:31:22.

was all going to be sweetness and light, but the fact is, we didn't

:31:23.:31:27.

know then what we know now, about the extent of the economic crisis we

:31:28.:31:31.

win, and a lot of difficult decisions have had to be taken in

:31:32.:31:34.

order to restore economic stability. Look around you. You will see we are

:31:35.:31:39.

not there yet but we are a long way better off than in 2010. You are not

:31:40.:31:44.

getting the credit for it, the Tories are. We will be a little more

:31:45.:31:51.

assertive about taking the credit. For example, the fact that 23

:31:52.:31:56.

million people have had a tax cut of ?800 per year and we have taken 2

:31:57.:31:59.

million people out of paying tax altogether. Ming Campbell, your

:32:00.:32:03.

people say that on every programme like this. Because it is true. That

:32:04.:32:09.

might be the case, but you are at seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody

:32:10.:32:14.

is listening, or they don't believe it. Once

:32:15.:32:22.

is listening, or they don't believe doubt that what we have achieved

:32:23.:32:23.

will be much more easily recognised, and there is no doubt,

:32:24.:32:27.

for example, in some of the recent polls, like the Ashcroft Pole,

:32:28.:32:31.

something like 30% of those polled said that as a result at the next

:32:32.:32:38.

something like 30% of those polled general election, they would prepare

:32:39.:32:41.

their to be a coalition involving the Liberal Democrats. So there is

:32:42.:32:45.

no question that the whole notion of coalition is still very much a live

:32:46.:32:49.

one, and one which we have made work in the public interest. The problem

:32:50.:32:54.

is people don't think that. People see you trying to have your cake and

:32:55.:32:58.

eat it. On the one hand you want to get your share of the credit for the

:32:59.:33:01.

turnaround in the economy, on the other hand you can't stop yourself

:33:02.:33:04.

from distancing yourself from the Tories and things that you did not

:33:05.:33:08.

like happening. You are trying to face both ways at once. If you

:33:09.:33:14.

remember our fellow Scotsman famously said you cannot ride both

:33:15.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman to the terms -- terms of the

:33:28.:33:27.

remember our fellow Scotsman coalition agreement, which is what

:33:28.:33:30.

we signed up to in 2010. In addition, in furtherance of that

:33:31.:33:33.

agreement, we have created things like the pupil premium and the

:33:34.:33:37.

others I mentioned and you were rather dismissive. I'm not

:33:38.:33:41.

dismissive, I'm just saying they don't make a difference to what

:33:42.:33:45.

people think of you. We will do everything in our power to change

:33:46.:33:50.

that between now and May 2015. The interesting thing is, going back to

:33:51.:33:56.

the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated clearly that in constituencies where

:33:57.:34:01.

we have MPs and we are well dug in, we are doing everything that the

:34:02.:34:04.

public expects of us, and we are doing very well indeed. You aren't

:34:05.:34:09.

sure fellow Lib Dems have been saying this for you -- you and your

:34:10.:34:15.

fellow Liberal Dems have been saying this for a year or 18 months, and

:34:16.:34:19.

since then you have lost all of your MEPs apart from one, you lost your

:34:20.:34:22.

deposit in a by-election, you lost 310 councillor, including everyone

:34:23.:34:28.

in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg leading you into the next general

:34:29.:34:34.

election will be the equivalent of the charge of the light Brigade. I

:34:35.:34:40.

doubt that very much. The implication behind that lit you

:34:41.:34:44.

rehearsed is that we should pack our tents in the night and steal away.

:34:45.:34:49.

-- that litany. And if you heard in that piece that preceded the

:34:50.:34:52.

discussion, people were saying, look we have to start from the bottom and

:34:53.:34:56.

have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is

:34:57.:35:07.

have to rebuild. That is exactly what we will do. Nine months is a

:35:08.:35:10.

period of gestation. As you well know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so

:35:11.:35:16.

easily as that. I'm not here to say we had a wonderful result or

:35:17.:35:19.

anything like it, but what I do say is that the party is determined to

:35:20.:35:24.

turn it round, and that Nick Clegg is the person best qualified to do

:35:25.:35:30.

it. Should your party adopt a referendum about in or out on

:35:31.:35:35.

Europe? No, we should stick to the coalition agreement. If there is any

:35:36.:35:37.

transfer of power from Westminster to Brussels, that will be subject to

:35:38.:35:43.

a referendum. No change. And finally, as a Lib Dem, you must be

:35:44.:35:48.

glad you are not fighting the next election yourself? I've fought every

:35:49.:35:54.

election since 1974, so I've had a few experiences, some good, some

:35:55.:36:00.

bad, but the one thing I have done and the one thing a lot of other

:36:01.:36:03.

people have done is that they have stuck to the task, and that is what

:36:04.:36:07.

will happen in May 2015. Ming Campbell, thank you for joining us.

:36:08.:36:11.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:12.:36:13.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:36:14.:36:23.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:36:24.:36:26.

After years of delay, the Executive has finally published

:36:27.:36:29.

its Racial Equality Strategy, although it comes at a time

:36:30.:36:32.

when the First Minister finds himself at the centre

:36:33.:36:35.

So will the strategy have any impact in stemming the rising tide

:36:36.:36:40.

We'll hear shortly from the SDLP's Alex Attwood

:36:41.:36:44.

Plus, the marching season is upon us - but now the talking's stopped

:36:45.:36:49.

what chance is there of agreement over parading in North Belfast?

:36:50.:36:57.

The talks have been postponed because people are reassessing their

:36:58.:37:04.

position. and more are the columnist

:37:05.:37:10.

Newton Emerson and Dearbhail McDonnell

:37:11.:37:12.

from the Irish Independent. But first, today,

:37:13.:37:15.

tributes have been paid Mr Conlon was wrongly convicted of

:37:16.:37:17.

the 1974 Guildford IRA pub bombings he became a prominent campaigner

:37:18.:37:24.

for justice. His family said he had

:37:25.:37:29.

"forced the world's closed eyes The images were powerful, the motion

:37:30.:37:32.

of a wronged man clearly visible as The images were powerful, the motion

:37:33.:37:47.

Gerry Conlon walked from the Old Bailey in 1989 to address the

:37:48.:37:52.

waiting media. I have been in prison for 15 years. For something I did

:37:53.:37:57.

not do. For something I did not know anything about. Gerry Conlon and

:37:58.:38:02.

three co-accused had been wrong to convicted of the 1974 IRA pub on

:38:03.:38:06.

things in Guildford that killed five people and injured 64 others. It was

:38:07.:38:10.

to be 15 years before those convictions were overturned either

:38:11.:38:18.

Court of Appeal. -- by the Court of Appeal. Who is this? Gerry Conlon.

:38:19.:38:25.

Do you have anything to say? I have cleared my conscience, I advise you

:38:26.:38:28.

to do the same. Their story was the subject of and Oscar-winning film

:38:29.:38:35.

starring Daniel Day-Lewis was a bit of the story of how Giuseppe Conlon

:38:36.:38:40.

had been caught up in it went he tried to help his son. He died while

:38:41.:38:45.

serving his sentence. His conviction was later quashed as well. It still

:38:46.:38:50.

haunts us that the British judiciary could get this so wrong and no for

:38:51.:38:55.

so long that innocent people went to prison. In recent years, Mr Conlon

:38:56.:39:02.

had taken interest in cases both internationally and at home where

:39:03.:39:04.

there have been claims of injustice. Including several involving

:39:05.:39:09.

dissident republicans. He did not cry about his own situation, you

:39:10.:39:12.

opened up the whole public mind in many ways, not just in Northern

:39:13.:39:18.

Ireland but Britain as well to the times when justice is not done.

:39:19.:39:22.

The SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell on the death of Gerry Conlon.

:39:23.:39:25.

Alex Attwood, you were a friend Mr Conlon's.

:39:26.:39:26.

He'd been a supporter of the SDLP and had addressed the party

:39:27.:39:29.

Yes, he did support Irish democracy and hated injustice anywhere, like

:39:30.:39:45.

anyone who met Gerry Conlon, he was very bright, he was funny, he raged

:39:46.:39:49.

against injustice and miscarriages of justice wherever they were.

:39:50.:39:50.

What was his contribution in the past 25 years?

:39:51.:39:53.

I think that he Guildford case and what Jerry and others did, both

:39:54.:40:01.

inside prison and outside the prison, because a spotlight on the

:40:02.:40:05.

abuses of the state and, having done so, I think they opened up that

:40:06.:40:10.

issue of the many other miscarriages of justice, not just in respect of

:40:11.:40:14.

the conflict here but in other parts of the world. He also never wavered

:40:15.:40:20.

from support for Irish democracy. He raged against injustice and he

:40:21.:40:25.

defended democracy wherever it he thought it needed defending.

:40:26.:40:27.

the British justice system let Gerry Conlon down?

:40:28.:40:31.

I did not know him. I don't know a great deal about his story but it is

:40:32.:40:38.

quite clear that the justice system at the end of the day recognised

:40:39.:40:42.

that he had been wrongly imprisoned and he spent 15 years in prison for

:40:43.:40:48.

something he had not done, that must have a dramatic impact on an

:40:49.:40:53.

individual. Most people watching the programme today will say there has

:40:54.:40:55.

been another injustice and that is where people have been guilty of

:40:56.:41:01.

crimes and victims find no closure or no justice for those crimes.

:41:02.:41:09.

People who had relatives murdered, they will feel the same sense of

:41:10.:41:12.

injustice as Gerry Conlon must have felt.

:41:13.:41:19.

Nobody who has not committed a crime should not be good prison. No, we

:41:20.:41:23.

need to make sure that does not happen. I am sure that anyone who

:41:24.:41:30.

knows the story would accept that for someone to be behind bars for 15

:41:31.:41:35.

years for something they did not do must eat away like a cancer inside

:41:36.:41:39.

them. We will leave it there. We will hear from you again later.

:41:40.:41:43.

It's been seven years in the making, but finally this week

:41:44.:41:46.

the Executive published its Racial Equality Strategy.

:41:47.:41:48.

It came in a week when a Nigerian man, Michael Abiona,

:41:49.:41:50.

had to abandon plans to move into a house in the east of the city

:41:51.:41:54.

after residents staged a protest,

:41:55.:41:55.

demanding what they called "local housing for local people".

:41:56.:41:57.

Peter Robinson suggested the protest hadn't necessarily been motivated

:41:58.:42:00.

by racism, but could have been down to local pressure on housing.

:42:01.:42:03.

Here's what he told our Political Editor, Mark Devenport.

:42:04.:42:08.

I am not sure that this can be described as racism in terms of what

:42:09.:42:17.

the intention of the local people was. There is mass of concern, and

:42:18.:42:23.

local indie stands means very local. You might not have the same reaction

:42:24.:42:30.

if someone upcountry was moving in in regions where they are not able

:42:31.:42:34.

to get houses. Do you really think that will have been the case if they

:42:35.:42:38.

saw someone with white skin moving into the area? I know it has

:42:39.:42:43.

happened elsewhere. This is not a new phenomenon, there are people who

:42:44.:42:51.

have being brought up on housing estates or their lives, their

:42:52.:42:53.

children grew up on that area and they cannot get them housed in that

:42:54.:42:57.

area. There is a resentment that people from outside their local area

:42:58.:43:01.

are getting houses and they cannot get their children housed close to

:43:02.:43:06.

them. That has to be dealt with by the Housing Executive. It is not to

:43:07.:43:12.

do with those who apply and are granted accommodation in an area. I

:43:13.:43:16.

don't seek to have any justification in any way for that because that is

:43:17.:43:22.

what the rules and regulations are. I want to make it very clear that I

:43:23.:43:28.

oppose anything that suggests that people are unwelcome in Northern

:43:29.:43:31.

Ireland because of their racial background or because of the colour

:43:32.:43:33.

of their skin. Peter Robinson talking to

:43:34.:43:34.

Mark Devenport last week. Sammy Wilson

:43:35.:43:36.

and Alex Attwood are still here. Sammy Wilson - why didn't the

:43:37.:43:38.

First Minister come out and condemn the campaign against

:43:39.:43:40.

Mr Abiona as straightforward racism? At the end of the interview, I think

:43:41.:43:54.

that Peter Robinson has been unfairly criticised for this. At the

:43:55.:43:57.

end of the interview, he made it clear, in unequivocal terms that no

:43:58.:44:03.

one should have that kind of treatment meted out to them because

:44:04.:44:07.

of their race or colour. He was also unsure that it was racist. If you

:44:08.:44:16.

look at the full interview, he said that the police came to that case --

:44:17.:44:20.

that if the police came to that conclusion, they should look into it

:44:21.:44:26.

further. As far as he is concerned, no one should be subject to that

:44:27.:44:31.

kind of treatment because of where they come from, because of their

:44:32.:44:36.

ethnic Akram, because of their colour, their creed or anything like

:44:37.:44:37.

that. -- debt ethnic background. Why did he leave

:44:38.:44:44.

room for interpretation I don't think the fact were known at

:44:45.:44:51.

that stage. The next day, once it was clear how the police and Housing

:44:52.:44:58.

Executive were treated, he himself reinforced what he had said on the

:44:59.:45:05.

first day that it happened by the statement that he issued. I think it

:45:06.:45:12.

is unfair to say that he was in any way condoning any racist abuse of

:45:13.:45:19.

the particular individual, he wasn't, he made that clear from the

:45:20.:45:22.

start that that is wrong. It should not happen in Northern Ireland,

:45:23.:45:26.

Northern Ireland wants to be a welcoming place for individuals.

:45:27.:45:33.

In this case and in the Pastor McConnell case,

:45:34.:45:35.

he had to re-visit the issue to clarify what he meant. Why?

:45:36.:45:38.

To a certain extent, what he said and how it was interpreted was maybe

:45:39.:45:45.

sometimes beyond his control. I don't think that... He wrote his own

:45:46.:45:57.

script. At least you shall behold -- you showed the whole interview this

:45:58.:46:04.

time. He made it clear that it was not acceptable behaviour and that is

:46:05.:46:06.

the position that has always been the position and in light of the way

:46:07.:46:17.

it was interpreted, he reinforce that issue. It is the first point

:46:18.:46:29.

that everyone should be making, especially Peter Robinson,

:46:30.:46:35.

especially given the events of the last few weeks. There should be no

:46:36.:46:38.

doubt that is what Peter Robinson should have said first and should

:46:39.:46:43.

have said last. The fact that he left things hanging in the air in

:46:44.:46:48.

that interview and the fact that he had to come back the following day,

:46:49.:46:51.

I think tells the true story of what happened in those interviews. The

:46:52.:46:55.

point is, there is no ambiguity. Has been clarified. You should be happy.

:46:56.:47:01.

If people get on the right side of this argument, however long it

:47:02.:47:06.

takes, I welcome that. Peter Robinson got on the wrong side of

:47:07.:47:11.

the argument in that interview. Given what had happened to that

:47:12.:47:14.

family and given what happened over the last three or four weeks, and

:47:15.:47:18.

nobody should the on the wrong side of this argument, given what has

:47:19.:47:21.

happened over the last three or four weeks. At least Peter got on the

:47:22.:47:32.

right side of the ultimate. -- the right side of the argument. It is

:47:33.:47:42.

more than your party has done, not supporting the National Crime

:47:43.:47:45.

Agency, which would help to deal with some of the worst racial abuse,

:47:46.:47:48.

namely the trafficking of vulnerable people into Northern Ireland for

:47:49.:47:55.

exploitation. You got on the wrong side of the argument and you have

:47:56.:47:59.

never apologised for it. Let us do with one of those issues. I

:48:00.:48:03.

recognise my party recognises that we got on the wrong side of the

:48:04.:48:11.

argument in the respect of Clay Park, we recognise that, but there

:48:12.:48:15.

is a pattern of behaviour from Peter Robinson and I saw it around the

:48:16.:48:18.

executive table where his default position or his first position tends

:48:19.:48:22.

to be one of intolerance. You still can't apologise for it and you still

:48:23.:48:26.

can't apologise to the people who were hurt by it. That is the

:48:27.:48:29.

difference. Peter Robinson did apologise, your party... It is a bit

:48:30.:48:39.

rich. I want to go about the racial equality strategy, with its six

:48:40.:48:49.

approaches to tackling equality. Will it make a difference? It is

:48:50.:48:55.

difficult for any strategy or policy to change mindsets. I suppose it

:48:56.:48:58.

does take a long time through education, through other things that

:48:59.:49:05.

can be done, good to nudity relations programmes and so on --

:49:06.:49:12.

good community relations programmes. I think the executive has to at

:49:13.:49:16.

least respond to some of the issues that exist. Will it make any

:49:17.:49:23.

difference? It will make some difference but everybody knows that

:49:24.:49:27.

this is too little after the events of recent times and it is too late,

:49:28.:49:32.

given that this has come seven years after it was promised. What should

:49:33.:49:37.

we do? We should learn from how we best change behaviour in Northern

:49:38.:49:41.

Ireland over the years and what was that? It was tough law, it was hard

:49:42.:49:45.

enforcement. That is what we did when it came to policing, that is

:49:46.:49:48.

what we did with human rights and equality. Tough law, hard

:49:49.:49:53.

enforcement is the way to deal with these critical issues, including

:49:54.:49:58.

sectarianism and racism. That strategy does not do either of them.

:49:59.:50:01.

Maybe it should have come out quicker, seven years! It is too

:50:02.:50:04.

little, too late. Thank you. Listening to that

:50:05.:50:09.

are commentator Newton Emerson and Dearbhail McDonald

:50:10.:50:11.

from the Irish Independent. Newton, you wrote this week

:50:12.:50:12.

about the "staggering sense "of entitlement this subject

:50:13.:50:15.

provokes in Northern Ireland". Housing and racism, the two issues

:50:16.:50:27.

have been bound inextricably recently. They are in extra to be

:50:28.:50:31.

bound. -- in extremely bound. Immigrants have simply expose the

:50:32.:50:45.

hypocrisy we have all taken on board. Alex Attwood was talking

:50:46.:50:50.

about rights and equality and how outrageous this was, but his party

:50:51.:50:56.

was welcoming a report that called for the building of single identity

:50:57.:50:59.

areas in city centres rather than mixed areas. When you tell people

:51:00.:51:05.

they have a right to housing and that is their to nudity that has the

:51:06.:51:13.

right, of course you will get these -- community, of course you get

:51:14.:51:23.

these attitudes. Seeing Peter Robinson, the most benign

:51:24.:51:31.

interpretation you can have is that he had an extraordinary lapse of

:51:32.:51:36.

judgement on a consistent basis. I think the ambiguity that he promoted

:51:37.:51:39.

was actually to placate or to appease the people of East Belfast.

:51:40.:51:43.

He is on a different message because she is essentially reassuring them

:51:44.:51:48.

-- he is essentially reassuring them. I wonder if that is why he

:51:49.:51:58.

created that ambiguity. He is the First Minister of this entire

:51:59.:52:01.

jurisdiction and there is no room for racism at all.

:52:02.:52:04.

The DUP MP Nigel Dodds has accused the Parades' Commission of being

:52:05.:52:08.

characterised by weakness and caving in to the threat of violence.

:52:09.:52:11.

He made his comments over the continuing row about

:52:12.:52:13.

an Orange Order parade in North Belfast.

:52:14.:52:15.

The Commission has prevented Ligoniel Orangemen from,

:52:16.:52:17.

as they see it, completing last year's Twelfth Of July parade.

:52:18.:52:19.

Even though local talks have been postponed, there are still hopes

:52:20.:52:22.

that a last-minute agreement could be found.

:52:23.:52:24.

Here's our Political Reporter, Stephen Walker.

:52:25.:52:42.

What happens on the streets in the coming weeks may define Northern

:52:43.:52:49.

Ireland's summer. The issue of parading is at the top of the

:52:50.:52:53.

political agenda and the differences between the parties are as wide as

:52:54.:53:02.

ever. For nearly 350 days, there has been a protest at this camp over a

:53:03.:53:10.

ban to allow the order to complete their march. Some loyalists think

:53:11.:53:16.

nationalists are being unreasonable. Although want to do is take and they

:53:17.:53:24.

don't want any Orange feet on that land. We have been here for 37

:53:25.:53:28.

years. I have used those shops on a daily basis. The local discussions

:53:29.:53:33.

have now been put on ice. The talks have been postponed it is

:53:34.:53:38.

have now been put on ice. The talks reassessing their position. When you

:53:39.:53:42.

talk, the Republicans seem to have a veto on the parades. Gerry Kelly was

:53:43.:53:48.

also involved in talks aimed at brokering a deal. What the residents

:53:49.:53:53.

have done is they have presented their view. We have not been able to

:53:54.:54:04.

crack it yet. Have we made progress, yes we have. The best solution would

:54:05.:54:13.

be if the Parades' Commission on the ground that they established last

:54:14.:54:17.

year and the parameters of an acceptable compromise of the

:54:18.:54:21.

afternoon parade not taking place because it has provoked a reaction

:54:22.:54:26.

over a number of years, I think if the Parades' Commission was to stand

:54:27.:54:30.

that ground, they would gain credibility for being consistent.

:54:31.:54:35.

The DUP's Nigel Dodds says worries over violence have clearly

:54:36.:54:37.

influenced the commission's thinking. What happened was we had

:54:38.:54:44.

nationalist and republican politicians predicting a catastrophe

:54:45.:54:50.

and we had people on the public and side -- on the Republican side...

:54:51.:55:11.

That sends a bad message. Whatever the decisions are, the only issue is

:55:12.:55:19.

around the Parades' Commission. I will disagree with at times but

:55:20.:55:29.

there will be nothing else in place before the marching season. 12

:55:30.:55:34.

months on, there are hopes that last year's violent scenes will not be

:55:35.:55:45.

repeated. We have proved that we are for peaceful protest. A year on, the

:55:46.:55:51.

protest camp remains as does the key question, can politicians, the

:55:52.:55:55.

Orange Order and residents find a compromise before the 4th of July?

:55:56.:55:56.

-- the 12th of July. A spokesperson from the Parades'

:55:57.:56:03.

Commission told this programme the Commission "believes that local

:56:04.:56:06.

accommodation is the best way to "resolve complicated parading issues

:56:07.:56:09.

and is mindful of the efforts "being made by many individuals

:56:10.:56:11.

to resolve these matters." Let's hear more now from my guests

:56:12.:56:14.

of the day, Dearbhail and Newton. Is the success of a recent march

:56:15.:56:35.

important in your mind? Yes, but we have to be mindful that Robert --

:56:36.:56:45.

that Republicans will be testing the waters. The hearth process is going

:56:46.:56:52.

nowhere. What is happening? People are talking past each other rather

:56:53.:56:54.

than to each other. If we don't have that leadership at a high level, it

:56:55.:56:59.

does not bode well for the future. Unless you get a Clinton or some

:57:00.:57:04.

other figure or a good local solution for this chip, we won't. --

:57:05.:57:10.

for this year. For those of us watching us, it is the cost of this.

:57:11.:57:16.

?11 million. Imagine if you apply that to housing strategy.

:57:17.:57:17.

and have a look back at the week in 60 seconds, with Gareth Gordon.

:57:18.:57:26.

As a move by a Stormont committee to punish Gerry Kelly over this is

:57:27.:57:40.

blocked by somebody's, there is this reaction. Order! Order! I will

:57:41.:57:48.

remind members of the language they use in the chamber. But all smiles

:57:49.:57:57.

here. There is reputational damage because of our past. We want people

:57:58.:58:01.

to think of Northern Ireland and then think of golf. The police

:58:02.:58:10.

ombudsman say there was no evidence that the police knew of a plot to

:58:11.:58:19.

kill Gerry Adams 30 years ago. It is not Brazil, it is Northern Ireland.

:58:20.:58:25.

They captured the mood for community relations week.

:58:26.:58:30.

A final thought from Dearbhail and Newton.

:58:31.:58:33.

and we know the Queen will meet Martin McGuinness again.

:58:34.:58:42.

These events are really important, they are important but they have to

:58:43.:58:49.

be supplemented by real political leadership because there is no

:58:50.:58:53.

substitute for that. These events with the Queen are important but

:58:54.:59:02.

they are no replacement for proper government. The Queen and Martin

:59:03.:59:11.

McGuinness into getting along. This one will highlight the fact that it

:59:12.:59:14.

is a Unionist gesture. That's it from me -

:59:15.:59:17.

back to Andrew in London. and they will be obliged to tell

:59:18.:59:24.

you. Thanks for joining us. Andrew, back to you.

:59:25.:59:41.

think you'd want to. Labour grandees are not queueing up to sing his

:59:42.:59:47.

praises. Look at this. In my view, he is the leader we have and he is

:59:48.:59:51.

the leader I support and he is somebody capable of leading the

:59:52.:59:55.

party to victory. Ed Miliband will leave this to victory, and I believe

:59:56.:00:02.

he can. If he doesn't, what would happen to the Labour Party? We could

:00:03.:00:07.

be in the wilderness for 15 years. At the moment he has to convince

:00:08.:00:11.

people he has the capacity to lead the country. That's not my view, but

:00:12.:00:16.

people don't believe that. We had a leader of the Labour Party was

:00:17.:00:19.

publicly embarrassed, because whoever was in charge of press

:00:20.:00:26.

letting go through a process where we have councillors in Merseyside

:00:27.:00:35.

resigning. It was a schoolboy error. Having policies without them being

:00:36.:00:39.

drawn together into a convincing and vivid narrative and with what you do

:00:40.:00:49.

the people in the country. You have to draw together, connect the

:00:50.:00:55.

policies, link them back to the leader and give people a real sense

:00:56.:01:02.

of where you are going. Somehow he has never quite managed to be

:01:03.:01:07.

himself and create that identity with the public. And we are joined

:01:08.:01:13.

by the president of you girls, Peter Kellner. Welcome to the Sunday

:01:14.:01:24.

politics. -- YouGov. The Labour Party is six points ahead in your

:01:25.:01:28.

poll this morning. So what is the problem? On this basis he will win

:01:29.:01:32.

the next election. If the election were today and the figures held up,

:01:33.:01:36.

you would have a Labour government with a narrow overall majority. One

:01:37.:01:41.

should not forget that. Let me make three points. The first is, in past

:01:42.:01:47.

parliaments, opposition normally lose ground and governments gain

:01:48.:01:53.

ground in the final few months. The opposition should be further ahead

:01:54.:01:54.

than this. I opposition should be further ahead

:01:55.:01:58.

enough. Secondly, Ed Miliband is opposition should be further ahead

:01:59.:02:02.

behind David Cameron when people are asked who they want as Prime

:02:03.:02:04.

Minister and Labour is asked who they want as Prime

:02:05.:02:07.

Conservatives went people are asked who they trust on the economy. There

:02:08.:02:09.

have been elections when the party has won by being behind on

:02:10.:02:13.

leadership and other elections where they have won by being behind on the

:02:14.:02:18.

economy. No party has ever won an election when it has been clearly

:02:19.:02:21.

behind on both leadership and the economy. Let me have another go. The

:02:22.:02:27.

Labour Party brand is a strong brand. The Tory Bramleys

:02:28.:02:30.

Labour Party brand is a strong Labour brand is stronger. That is a

:02:31.:02:35.

blast -- the Labour -- the Tory Bramleys week. A lot of the

:02:36.:02:42.

blast -- the Labour -- the Tory -- the Tory brand is weak. Cant you

:02:43.:02:49.

win on policies and a strong party brand? If you have those too,

:02:50.:02:55.

win on policies and a strong party need the third factor which

:02:56.:02:57.

win on policies and a strong party have what it

:02:58.:03:01.

win on policies and a strong party skills, determination,

:03:02.:03:02.

win on policies and a strong party determination, whatever makes to

:03:03.:03:03.

carry through. determination, whatever makes to

:03:04.:03:07.

lot of Ed Miliband policies, on determination, whatever makes to

:03:08.:03:15.

banks, energy prices, Brent controls, people like them.

:03:16.:03:17.

banks, energy prices, Brent government, would they carry them

:03:18.:03:18.

banks, energy prices, Brent through? They think they are not up

:03:19.:03:24.

to it. -- rent controls. If people think you won't deliver what you

:03:25.:03:28.

say, even if they like it, they were necessarily vote for you. That is

:03:29.:03:32.

the missing third element. There is a strong Labour brand, but it's not

:03:33.:03:38.

strong enough to overcome the feeling that the Labour leadership

:03:39.:03:44.

is not up to it. Nick, you had some senior Labour figure telling you

:03:45.:03:48.

that if Mr Miliband losing the next election he will have to resign

:03:49.:03:51.

immediately and cannot fight another election the way Neil Kinnock did

:03:52.:03:56.

after 1987. What was remarkable to me was that people were even

:03:57.:03:59.

thinking along these lines, and even more remarkable that they would tell

:04:00.:04:02.

you they were thinking along these lines? What is the problem? The

:04:03.:04:10.

problem is, is that Ed Miliband says it would be unprecedented to win the

:04:11.:04:15.

general election after the second worst result since 1918. They are

:04:16.:04:19.

concerned about is the start of a script that he would say on the day

:04:20.:04:22.

after losing the general election. Essentially what the people are

:04:23.:04:25.

trying to do is get their argument in first and to say, you cannot do

:04:26.:04:31.

what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't forget that Neil Kinnock in 1987 was

:04:32.:04:34.

in the middle of a very brave process of modernisation and had one

:04:35.:04:40.

and fought a very campaign that was professional but he lost again in

:04:41.:04:43.

1992, and they wanted to get their line in first. What some people are

:04:44.:04:50.

saying is that this is an election that the Labour Party should be

:04:51.:04:53.

winning because the coalition is so unpopular. If you don't win, I'm

:04:54.:04:56.

afraid to say, there is something wrong with you. Don't you find it

:04:57.:05:00.

remarkable that people are prepared to think along these lines at this

:05:01.:05:03.

stage, when Labour are ahead in the polls, still the bookies favourite

:05:04.:05:07.

to win, and you start to speak publicly, or in private to the

:05:08.:05:11.

public print, but we might have to get rid of him if he doesn't win.

:05:12.:05:16.

Everything you say about labour in this situation has been said about

:05:17.:05:19.

the Tories. We wondered whether Boris Johnson would tie himself to

:05:20.:05:23.

the mask and he is the next leader in waiting if Cameron goes. It's a

:05:24.:05:28.

mirror image of that. We talk about things being unprecedented. It's

:05:29.:05:31.

unprecedented for a government to gain seats. All the things you say

:05:32.:05:34.

about labour, you could say it the Conservatives. That's what makes the

:05:35.:05:39.

next election so interesting. But in the aftermath of the European

:05:40.:05:42.

elections and the local government elections, in which the

:05:43.:05:45.

Conservatives did not do that well, the issue was not Mr Cameron or the

:05:46.:05:49.

Tories doing well, the issue was the Labour Party and how they had not

:05:50.:05:52.

done as well as they should have done, and that conversation was

:05:53.:05:56.

fuelled by the kind of people who have been speaking to nick from the

:05:57.:06:01.

Labour Party. Rachel Reeves cited their real-life performance in

:06:02.:06:05.

elections as a reason for optimism. When in fact their performance in

:06:06.:06:09.

the Europeans and locals was disappointing for an opposition one

:06:10.:06:12.

year away from a general election. What alarms me about labour is the

:06:13.:06:16.

way they react to criticisms about Ed Miliband. Two years ago when he

:06:17.:06:21.

was attacked, they said they were 15 points ahead, and then a year ago

:06:22.:06:24.

there were saying they were nine or ten ahead, and now they are saying

:06:25.:06:29.

we are still five or six ahead. The trend is alarming. It points to a

:06:30.:06:35.

smaller Labour lead. Am I right in detecting a bit of a class war going

:06:36.:06:39.

on in the Labour Party? There are a lot of northern Labour MPs who think

:06:40.:06:44.

that Ed Miliband is to north London, and there are too many metropolitan

:06:45.:06:49.

cronies around him must I think that is right, Andrew. What I think is,

:06:50.:06:55.

being a pessimist in terms of their prospects, I do think the Labour

:06:56.:07:00.

Party could win the next election. I just don't think they can as they

:07:01.:07:04.

are going at the moment. But the positioning for a possible defeat,

:07:05.:07:07.

what they should be talking about is what do we need to change in the

:07:08.:07:13.

party and the way Ed Miliband performs in order to secure victory.

:07:14.:07:18.

That is a debate they could have, and they could make the changes. I

:07:19.:07:22.

find it odd that they are being so defeatist. Don't go away. Peter is a

:07:23.:07:28.

boffin when it comes to polls. That is why we have a mod for the

:07:29.:07:32.

election prediction swings and roundabouts. He is looking for what

:07:33.:07:36.

he calls the incumbency effect. Don't know what is a back-up -- what

:07:37.:07:43.

that's about question don't worry, here is an. Being in office is bad

:07:44.:07:52.

for your health. Political folk wisdom has it that incumbency

:07:53.:07:57.

favours one party in particular, the Liberal Democrats. That is because

:07:58.:08:01.

their MPs have a reputation as ferociously good local campaigners

:08:02.:08:04.

who do really well at holding on to their seats. However, this time

:08:05.:08:09.

round, several big-name long serving Liberal Democrats like Ming

:08:10.:08:14.

Campbell, David Heath and Don Foster are standing down. Does that mean

:08:15.:08:18.

the incumbency effect disappears like a puff of smoke? Then there is

:08:19.:08:23.

another theory, called the sophomore surge. It might sound like a movie

:08:24.:08:28.

about US college kids, but it goes like this. New MPs tend to do better

:08:29.:08:32.

in their second election than they did in their first. That could

:08:33.:08:36.

favour the Tories because they have lots of first-time MPs. The big

:08:37.:08:42.

question is, what does this mean for the 7th of May 2015, the date of the

:08:43.:08:45.

next general election? The answer is, who knows? I know a man who

:08:46.:08:56.

knows. Peter. What does it all mean? You can go onto your PC now and draw

:08:57.:09:01.

down programmes which say that these are the voting figures from a

:09:02.:09:03.

national poll, so what will the seats look like? This is based on

:09:04.:09:08.

uniform swing. Every seat moving up and down across the country in the

:09:09.:09:12.

same way. Historically, that's been a pretty good guide. I think that's

:09:13.:09:18.

going to completely break down next year, because the Lib Dems will

:09:19.:09:21.

probably hold on to more seats than we predict from the national figures

:09:22.:09:27.

and I think fewer Tory seats will go to the Labour Party than you would

:09:28.:09:30.

predict from the national figures. The precise numbers, I'm not going

:09:31.:09:35.

to be too precise, but I would be surprised, sorry, I would not be

:09:36.:09:41.

surprised if Labour fell 20 or 25 seats short on what we would expect

:09:42.:09:47.

on the uniform swing prediction. Next year's election will be tight.

:09:48.:09:52.

Falling 20 seats short could well mean the difference between victory

:09:53.:09:56.

and defeat. What you make of that, Helen? I think you're right,

:09:57.:10:01.

especially taking into account the UKIP effect. We have no idea about

:10:02.:10:05.

that. The conventional wisdom is that will drain away back to the

:10:06.:10:09.

Conservatives, but nobody knows, and it makes the next election almost

:10:10.:10:13.

impossible to call. It means it is a great target the people like Lord

:10:14.:10:16.

Ashcroft with marginal great target the people like Lord

:10:17.:10:18.

because people have never been so interested. It is for party politics

:10:19.:10:24.

and we all assume that UKIP should be well next year, but their vote

:10:25.:10:30.

went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that 17% went

:10:31.:10:35.

went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that only be five or 6% in the general

:10:36.:10:38.

election, so they might not have the threat of depriving Conservatives of

:10:39.:10:41.

their seats. Where the incumbency thing has an effect

:10:42.:10:45.

their seats. Where the incumbency Democrats. They have fortress

:10:46.:10:46.

their seats. Where the incumbency where between 1992 and 1997 Liberal

:10:47.:10:50.

Democrats seats fell, but their percentage went up. They are losing

:10:51.:10:55.

the local government base though. True, but having people like Ming

:10:56.:10:58.

Campbell standing down means they will struggle.

:10:59.:10:59.

Campbell standing down means they incumbency being an important factor

:11:00.:11:05.

in American politics. It's hard to get rid of an incumbent unless it is

:11:06.:11:07.

a primary election, like get rid of an incumbent unless it is

:11:08.:11:13.

important factor in British politics, that if you own the seat

:11:14.:11:16.

you're more likely to hold on politics, that if you own the seat

:11:17.:11:21.

than not? If it is, that's a remarkable thing. It's hard to be a

:11:22.:11:25.

carpetbagger in America, but it is normal in British Parliamentary

:11:26.:11:26.

constituencies to be represented normal in British Parliamentary

:11:27.:11:29.

someone who did not grow up locally. normal in British Parliamentary

:11:30.:11:32.

It is a special kind of achievement to have an incumbency effect where

:11:33.:11:35.

you don't have deep roots in the constituency. I was going to ask

:11:36.:11:39.

about the Lib Dems. If we are wrong, and they collapse in Parliamentary

:11:40.:11:42.

representation as much as the share in vote collapses, is that not good

:11:43.:11:47.

news is that the Conservatives? They would

:11:48.:11:49.

news is that the Conservatives? They majority of existing Lib Dems seats.

:11:50.:11:51.

For majority of existing Lib Dems seats.

:11:52.:11:55.

second to the Lib Dems, there are two where the Conservatives are

:11:56.:11:58.

second. If the Lib Dem representation collapses, that helps

:11:59.:12:06.

the Conservatives. I'm assuming the Tories will gain about ten seats. If

:12:07.:12:11.

they gain 20, if they'd had 20 more seats last time, they would have had

:12:12.:12:14.

a majority government, just about. So 20 seats off the Lib Dem, do the

:12:15.:12:20.

maths, as they say in America, and they could lose a handful to labour

:12:21.:12:24.

and still be able to run a one party, minority government. The fate

:12:25.:12:26.

of the Lib Dems could party, minority government. The fate

:12:27.:12:29.

the outcome to the politics of light. On the 8th of May, it will be

:12:30.:12:36.

VE Day and victory in election day as well as Europe. The Lib Dems will

:12:37.:12:41.

be apoplectic if they lose all of the seats to their coalition

:12:42.:12:46.

partners. The great quote by Angela Merkel, the little party always gets

:12:47.:12:50.

crushed. It's a well-established idea that coalition politics. They

:12:51.:12:54.

can't take credit for the things people like you may get lumbered

:12:55.:12:57.

with the ones they don't. They have contributed most of this terrible

:12:58.:13:01.

idea that seized politics where you say it, but you don't deliver it.

:13:02.:13:04.

Tuition fees is the classic example of this Parliament. Why should you

:13:05.:13:10.

believe any promise you make? And Ed Miliband is feeling that as well.

:13:11.:13:14.

But in 1974 the liberal Democrats barely had any MPs but there were

:13:15.:13:19.

reporters outside Jeremy Thorpe's home because they potentially held

:13:20.:13:21.

not the balance of power, but were significantly in fourth. Bringing

:13:22.:13:26.

back memories Jeremy Thorpe, and we will leave it there. Thanks to the

:13:27.:13:30.

panel. We are tomorrow on BBC Two. At the earlier time of 11am because

:13:31.:13:34.

of Wimbledon. Yes, it's that time of year again already. I will be back

:13:35.:13:39.

here at 11 o'clock next week. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the

:13:40.:13:42.

Sunday Politics.

:13:43.:13:46.

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