29/06/2014 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


29/06/2014

With Mark Carruthers. Andrew Neil is joined by Europe Minister David Lidington, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan and Lib Dem Charles Kennedy to discuss David Cameron's EU defeat.


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Transcript


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No surprise that Mr Cameron didn't get his way at the European summit.

:00:37.:00:47.

But does it mean Britain has just moved closer to the EU exit?

:00:48.:00:50.

A sensible health measure or the health lobby's secret plan all

:00:51.:00:56.

A new round of talks ahead of this summer's twelfth get underway this

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week, but can anything be achieved when time is so tight and the past

:01:12.:01:18.

And with me, as always, the best and the brightest political

:01:19.:01:30.

panel in the business Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh.

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They've had their usual cognac, or Juncker as it's known in

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Luxembourg, for breakfast and will be tweeting under the influence.

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He's a boozing, chain-smoking, millionaire bon viveur who's made

:01:47.:01:48.

it big in the world of European politic.

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I speak of Jean-Claude Juncker, the former Prime Minister of Luxembourg

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He'll soon be President of the European Commission,

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He wasn't David Cameron's choice of course.

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But those the PM thought were his allies deserted him and he ended up

:02:05.:02:07.

on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Fedrealist Juncker.

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-- on the wrong end of a 26-2 vote in favour of Arch-Federalist

:02:23.:02:26.

So where does this leave Mr Cameron's hopes

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of major reform and repatriation of EU powers back to the UK?

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Let's speak to his Europe Minister David Lidington.

:02:32.:02:35.

Welcome to the programme. The Prime Minister says that now with Mr

:02:36.:02:42.

Juncker at the helm, the battle to keep Britain in the EU has got

:02:43.:02:45.

harder. In what way has it got harder? For two reasons. The

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majority of the leaders have accepted the process that shifts

:02:51.:02:56.

power, it will not careful, from the elected heads of government right

:02:57.:03:00.

cross Europe to the party bosses, the faction leaders in the European

:03:01.:03:08.

Parliament and and the disaffection was made clear in many European

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countries. Mr Juncker had a distinguished period as head of

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Luxembourg, and was not a known reformer, but we have to judge on

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how he leads the commission and there were some elements in the

:03:24.:03:25.

mandate that the heads of government gave this week to the new incoming

:03:26.:03:31.

European Commission that I think are cautiously encouraging for us. The

:03:32.:03:36.

Prime Minister talked about those that not everybody wants to

:03:37.:03:42.

integrate and to the same extent and speed. Let me just interrupt you.

:03:43.:03:48.

What is new about saying that Europe can go closer to closer union at

:03:49.:03:52.

different speeds? That has always been the case. It's nothing new.

:03:53.:04:01.

Indeed there are precedents, and they are good examples of the

:04:02.:04:11.

approach as part of the course and one of the elements that the Prime

:04:12.:04:16.

Minister is taking forward in the strategy is to get general

:04:17.:04:19.

acceptance that while we agree that most of the partners have agreed to

:04:20.:04:24.

the single currency will want to press forward with closer

:04:25.:04:27.

integration of their economic and tax policies, but not every country

:04:28.:04:32.

in the EU is going to want to do that. We have to see the pattern

:04:33.:04:37.

that has grown up enough to recognise there is a diverse EU with

:04:38.:04:41.

28 member states and more in the future. We won't all integrate the

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extent. It is a matter of a pattern that is differentiation and

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integration. I understand that. John Major used to call it variable

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geometry, and other phrases nobody used to understand, but the point is

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that you're back benches don't want any union at any speed, even in the

:05:00.:05:03.

slow lane. They want to go in the other direction. It depends which

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backbencher you talk to. There's a diverse range of views. I think that

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there is acceptance that the core of the Prime Minister's approaches to

:05:23.:05:25.

seek reform of the European Union, for renegotiation after the

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election, then put it to the British people to decide. It won't be the

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British government or ministers that take the final decision, it's the

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British people, provided they are a Conservative government, who will

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take the decision on the basis of the reforms that David Cameron

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secures whether they want to stay in or not. Is there more of a chance,

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not a certainty or probability, but at least more of a chance that with

:05:47.:05:52.

Mr Juncker in that position of Britain leaving the EU? I don't

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think we can say that at the moment. I think we can say that the task of

:05:59.:06:02.

reform looks harder than it did a couple of weeks ago. But we have do

:06:03.:06:10.

put Mr Juncker to the test. I do think he would want his commission

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to be marked and I think that there is, and I find this in numbers

:06:23.:06:27.

around Europe, and there is a growing recognition that things

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cannot go on as they have been. Europe, economically, is in danger

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of losing a lot of ground will stop millions of youngsters are out of

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work already that reform. There is real anxiety and a number of

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countries now about the extent to which opinion polls and election

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results are showing a shift of support to both left and right wing

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parties, sometimes outright neofascist movements, expressing

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real content and resentment at Howard in touch -- how out of touch

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decisions have become. You say you are sensing anxiety about the

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condition of Europe, so why did they choose Mr Juncker then? You would

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have to put that question to some of the heads of European government.

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Clearly there were a number for whom domestic politics played a big role

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in the eventual decision that they took. There were some who had signed

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up to the lead candidate process and felt they could not back away from

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that, whatever their private feelings might have been, but I

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think the PM was right to say that this was a matter of principle and

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it shouldn't just be left as a stitch up by the European Parliament

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to tell us what they do. He said, I can't agree to pretend to acquiesce.

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to tell us what they do. He said, I They have to make the opposition

:07:49.:07:52.

clear that go on with reform. Are the current terms of membership

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clear that go on with reform. Are us unacceptable? The current terms

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of the membership are very far from perfect. Are they unacceptable? The

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current terms perfect. Are they unacceptable? The

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that I feel comfortable with. The Prime Minister described them as

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unacceptable. Do you think they are? We look at the views of the British

:08:17.:08:20.

people at the moment. If you look at the polling at the moment, the

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evidence is that people are split on whether they think membership is a

:08:26.:08:28.

good thing. I'm asking what you think. David Cameron wants to in --

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endorse changes in our interest, but also

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endorse changes in our interest, but going to suffer if they don't

:08:41.:08:44.

challenge -- grasp the challenge of political and economic reform.

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Newsnight, Friday night, Malcolm Rifkind the former Secretary of

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State said to me that even if the choice was

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State said to me that even if the existing terms, he would vote to

:08:57.:09:00.

stay in on the existing terms. He doesn't necessarily like them, but

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he would vote to stay in. That is the authentic voice of the Foreign

:09:04.:09:06.

Office, isn't it? That is the position of your department. Is it

:09:07.:09:14.

your position? Malcolm Rifkind is a distinguished and independent minded

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backbencher. He's not in government now. But that is your position.

:09:17.:09:21.

backbencher. He's not in government the position of the government and

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the Conservative Party in the government is that we believe that

:09:24.:09:27.

important changes, both economic and political reforms, are

:09:28.:09:34.

important changes, both economic and whole. Would you vote to stay in on

:09:35.:09:40.

the existing terms? That's not going to be a question that the

:09:41.:09:46.

referendum. Really? I know that in 2017 Europe is going to look rather

:09:47.:09:50.

different to how it looks today. For one thing our colleagues in the

:09:51.:09:54.

Eurozone will want and need to press ahead with closer integration.

:09:55.:09:57.

That, in our view, needs to be done in a way that fully respects the

:09:58.:10:01.

rights of those of us who remain outside.

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rights of those of us who remain things like the abuse of freedom of

:10:06.:10:08.

migration. Those are all in the conclusions from the leader this

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week and we should welcome that. Very briefly, finally, when will

:10:13.:10:16.

you, as a government, give us the negotiating position of the

:10:17.:10:19.

government? Will you give us what you hope to achieve before the

:10:20.:10:23.

election or not? David Cameron set out very clearly in his Bloomberg

:10:24.:10:30.

speech that he wanted a Europe that was more democratically accountable,

:10:31.:10:35.

more flexible, more at it -- economically competitive. That is

:10:36.:10:38.

all very general. When will you lay out the negotiating position? It's

:10:39.:10:42.

not general. It is very far from general. We have seen evidence in

:10:43.:10:47.

the successful cut of the European budget, the reform of fisheries,

:10:48.:10:53.

those reforms have started to take effect. We have won some victories

:10:54.:10:57.

and I'm sure the Prime Minister, as we get towards the general election,

:10:58.:11:01.

will want to make clear what the Conservative Party position is, and

:11:02.:11:03.

perhaps other political leaders will do the same for their party. Thank

:11:04.:11:11.

you for joining us this morning. The harsh reality of this is that there

:11:12.:11:15.

is a yawning gap between what the Prime Minister can hope to bring

:11:16.:11:19.

back and what will satisfy his Conservative backbenchers. Yes, I

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think the Parliamentary Conservative Party is divided into three parts,

:11:25.:11:28.

those who would vote to leave the EU regardless, those who would stay

:11:29.:11:31.

regardless, and a huge middle ground of people who want to stay in on

:11:32.:11:35.

renegotiated terms. These are not three equal parts. Those who would

:11:36.:11:40.

vote to stay in regardless are smaller and smaller. Compared to 20

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years ago, tiny. But the people in the middle, generally, would only

:11:44.:11:48.

stay in if you secure a renegotiation that will not be

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re-secured. In other words, they are de facto, out by 2017 and the

:11:53.:11:59.

referendum. This whole saga of the recent weeks has been the single

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biggest economy in foreign policy under this government. That's not

:12:03.:12:07.

what the voters think. -- single biggest ignominy. I mean the failure

:12:08.:12:12.

to secure the target. The opinion polls show that standing up against

:12:13.:12:16.

Mr Juncker has proved rather popular. I suggest that is not Mr

:12:17.:12:20.

Cameron's problem. His problem is that, if in the end he gets only

:12:21.:12:23.

because Medic changes, and if he says he still thinks that with these

:12:24.:12:29.

changes -- cosmetic changes. And he says that they should stay in, that

:12:30.:12:32.

would split the Tory party wide open. Eurosceptics say would be the

:12:33.:12:38.

biggest split since the corn laws. He wants to protect the position of

:12:39.:12:43.

coming out, and you might get that. He wants to crack down on abuse of

:12:44.:12:50.

benefits, and he might get that. He wants to restrict freedom of

:12:51.:12:53.

movement for future member states, and that's difficult, because it is

:12:54.:12:56.

a treaty change. And he wants to deal with closer union, but that is

:12:57.:13:01.

also treaty change. In the Council conclusions, David Cameron was

:13:02.:13:04.

encouraged because it said, let's look at closer union, but it did not

:13:05.:13:09.

say it would reform. All it said was ever closer union can be interpreted

:13:10.:13:13.

in different ways. In other words, we're not going to change it. The

:13:14.:13:16.

fundamental problem the David Cameron was that two years ago, when

:13:17.:13:27.

he vetoed the fiscal compact, that showed Angela Merkel was unwilling

:13:28.:13:30.

to help them and what happened in the last two weeks was that Angela

:13:31.:13:32.

Merkel was unable to help him. There is not a single leader of the

:13:33.:13:35.

European Union that once Juncker as president, and he doesn't want it,

:13:36.:13:38.

he wants the note take a job at the European Council. But there was this

:13:39.:13:42.

basic stitch up by the European Parliament that meant he was

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presented, and when Angela Merkel put the question over his head there

:13:47.:13:49.

was a huge backlash in Germany and she was unable to deliver. I

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understand that, but I'm looking forward to Mr Cameron's predicament.

:13:55.:13:58.

I don't know how he squares the circle. It seems inconceivable that

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he can bring back enough from Brussels to satisfy his

:14:05.:14:09.

backbenchers. No, you can't. Most of them fundamentally want out. They

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don't want to be persuaded by renegotiations. Where it's hard to

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draw conclusions from the polling is that if you ask people question that

:14:17.:14:20.

sounds like, do you like the fact that our Prime Minister has gone to

:14:21.:14:23.

Brussels and stuck it to the man, they say yes, but how many people

:14:24.:14:27.

will go to the voting booths and put their cross in the box based on

:14:28.:14:32.

Europe? We know mostly voters care about Europe as a proxy for

:14:33.:14:39.

immigration fears. In ten people in this country could not tell you who

:14:40.:14:41.

John Claude Juncker is Angela Weir is replacing. -- and who he is

:14:42.:14:43.

replacing. And I'm joined in the studio now by

:14:44.:14:46.

arch-Eurosceptic Conservative MEP, Daniel Hannan and from Strasbourg by

:14:47.:14:49.

staunch European and former Liberal war? His declared objectives would

:14:50.:15:11.

leave Britain still in the common agricultural policy, the common

:15:12.:15:14.

foreign policy, the European arrest warrant, so the negotiating aims

:15:15.:15:22.

which we just heard Nick setting out wouldn't fundamentally change

:15:23.:15:25.

anything. It would be easy for the Government to declare war on any of

:15:26.:15:33.

these things. The danger from your point of view as someone who wants

:15:34.:15:38.

to stay in is that if David Cameron only gets cosmetic changes, the

:15:39.:15:43.

chance of getting the vote to leave the European Union increases,

:15:44.:15:48.

doesn't it? Hypothetically it probably does but we have two big

:15:49.:15:55.

things to get through first in domestic politics before we even

:15:56.:16:01.

reach a negotiation. One is are we going to have the United Kingdom

:16:02.:16:06.

this time next year following the referendum in Scotland? Secondly,

:16:07.:16:12.

are the Conservatives after the general election next year going to

:16:13.:16:16.

be in a position to pursue a negotiation? In other words are they

:16:17.:16:22.

going to be a majority government or even a minority government? For the

:16:23.:16:26.

sake of this morning let's assume the answer to both is yes, the UK

:16:27.:16:31.

stays intact and against the polls they were saying this morning, David

:16:32.:16:37.

Cameron forms an overall majority after the election. There is a

:16:38.:16:41.

danger, if he doesn't bring much back, that people will vote yes,

:16:42.:16:48.

correct? There is that danger and I see a lot of the British press

:16:49.:16:53.

comment this morning saying this could be a rerun of the Harold

:16:54.:16:58.

Wilson like negotiation of the 1970s, a bit cosmetic but enough to

:16:59.:17:03.

say we have got new terms and you should go with it. I think what is

:17:04.:17:07.

different however, and this is really an appeal if you like, it

:17:08.:17:13.

cannot just be left to the Liberal Democrats and coalition government

:17:14.:17:17.

to make this case on our Rome. A lot of interest groups across the land

:17:18.:17:23.

will have to start being prepared to put their head above the parapet on

:17:24.:17:27.

the fundamental - do you want Britain to remain in the European

:17:28.:17:33.

Union? Yes or no? Are you willing to put your public reputations on the

:17:34.:17:37.

line? We are not getting enough of that at the moment and it is getting

:17:38.:17:41.

dangerously close to closing time. Daniel Hannan, David Cameron will

:17:42.:17:53.

not get away with this, will he? It will be an acceptable to his party.

:17:54.:17:56.

If it is an acceptable will be an acceptable to his party.

:17:57.:18:01.

backbenchers it is because it is working and they are reflecting what

:18:02.:18:04.

their constituents say. A majority working and they are reflecting what

:18:05.:18:06.

of people in the country are unhappy working and they are reflecting what

:18:07.:18:07.

with the present terms. They can see working and they are reflecting what

:18:08.:18:13.

there is a huge wide world beyond the oceans and we have

:18:14.:18:18.

there is a huge wide world beyond There is

:18:19.:18:25.

better outside. It is not danger, it better outside. It is not danger, it

:18:26.:18:30.

is democracy, trusting people. If the only person offering a

:18:31.:18:33.

referendum at the moment is the Prime Minister, it has serious

:18:34.:18:38.

consequences for his party, your party, that's what I'm talking

:18:39.:18:40.

about. I am very party, that's what I'm talking

:18:41.:18:47.

of the party that is trusting people to offer this. If he only gets

:18:48.:18:49.

cosmetic changes he cannot to offer this. If he only gets

:18:50.:18:55.

party. But ultimately it will not be his party, it is the electorate

:18:56.:18:59.

party. But ultimately it will not be whole that has to decide whether the

:19:00.:19:02.

party. But ultimately it will not be changes are substantive. Everything

:19:03.:19:05.

we have been hearing just now is about staying out of future

:19:06.:19:09.

integration, protecting the role of the non-euro countries. People are

:19:10.:19:14.

upset about what is going on today with the EU. They can see laws being

:19:15.:19:19.

passed by people they cannot vote for, friendships overseas are

:19:20.:19:23.

prejudiced, and they conceive that the European Union has just put in

:19:24.:19:28.

charge in the top slot somebody who wants a United States of Europe into

:19:29.:19:33.

which we will eventually be dragged into as some kind of Providence.

:19:34.:19:38.

Jean-Claude Juncker is a Federalist, you are Federalist, why did the Lib

:19:39.:19:48.

Dems oppose him? We shared the view that whilst you take account of what

:19:49.:19:53.

the members of the European Parliament say, ultimately the

:19:54.:19:56.

choice of the presidency in the commission should be the political

:19:57.:20:01.

leaders, the governmental leaders at a national level, and that's why we

:20:02.:20:06.

went down the route we did. It was more to do with the system than the

:20:07.:20:10.

individual. Although I would say that you need to bear in mind, I

:20:11.:20:16.

mean Daniel, I respect him personally and the integrity of his

:20:17.:20:20.

views, as I think he does mine, but to dismiss the European Union as a

:20:21.:20:28.

small trading block globally, when you have got the United States of

:20:29.:20:32.

America, China and other countries acknowledging its importance, it is

:20:33.:20:43.

really Walter Mitty land. Are we closer than... Daniel Hannan, are we

:20:44.:20:55.

closer to an exit after what happened last week? Yes, because the

:20:56.:21:01.

idea that we could get substantive reforms, gets a mythic and powers

:21:02.:21:10.

back and be within a looser, more flexible European Union has plainly

:21:11.:21:18.

been closed off. We have to face up to the actual European Union that

:21:19.:21:23.

has taken shape on our doorstep. Are we going to be part of that or are

:21:24.:21:28.

we going to have a much more semidetached, looser relationship

:21:29.:21:32.

with it which we can either achieve via a unilateral system of power or

:21:33.:21:44.

another way. This debate is never-ending, it is going on and on

:21:45.:21:49.

and has bedevilled British prime ministers for as long as I can

:21:50.:21:53.

remember. Shouldn't the Lib Dems change their stance on the

:21:54.:21:58.

referendum yet again let's just have this in-out referendum and have it

:21:59.:22:04.

sided one way or another? Our position remains clear. If there is

:22:05.:22:09.

a constitutional issue put before us in terms of treaty changes then we

:22:10.:22:16.

will have a referendum. Why not now? I am probably the wrong person to

:22:17.:22:26.

ask because I argued and voted for a referendum on Maastricht because I

:22:27.:22:31.

thought that was a constitutional treaty. Anything that makes the

:22:32.:22:35.

Queen a citizen of the European Union surely has constitutional

:22:36.:22:42.

implications. Anyway, 20 years on we are where we are and we need to

:22:43.:22:46.

established common vocabulary. You talk about federalism. What do we

:22:47.:22:54.

mean? Most of the people operating in the European Parliament and the

:22:55.:22:57.

institution across the road, the Council of Europe, they mean by

:22:58.:23:02.

federalism decentralisation of powers, not a Brussels superstate

:23:03.:23:09.

but actually the kind of decentralisation that maintains

:23:10.:23:13.

national characteristics and pools resources and sovereignty where it

:23:14.:23:22.

makes sense. Mr Juncker, who is now going to be in charge of the

:23:23.:23:25.

Brussels commission, he believes in a single EU reform policy, an EU

:23:26.:23:37.

wide minimum wage and EU wide taxes. You said this week that you

:23:38.:23:41.

liked the sound of Juncker federalism. Does that sound good to

:23:42.:23:47.

you? No, and I think the new president of the commission will be

:23:48.:23:51.

disappointed if he puts forward these views because although we only

:23:52.:23:57.

had Hungary voting with us, I think if you go to other countries,

:23:58.:24:02.

France, Poland, Scandinavia, they are not going to buy that kind of

:24:03.:24:08.

menu. What they mean by federalism is the continental concept, also the

:24:09.:24:14.

North American concept, that we can sit very happily... They have an

:24:15.:24:22.

army, a federal police force, federal taxation. Yes, but in terms

:24:23.:24:31.

of the political institutions which is what we are discussing here, you

:24:32.:24:36.

can have the supranational, the European level, whilst still having

:24:37.:24:40.

the very vibrant national, and indeed as we are practising in the

:24:41.:24:45.

United Kingdom the subnational. A very brief final word from you,

:24:46.:24:51.

Daniel. That is ultimately going to be the choice. The European Union is

:24:52.:24:57.

an evolving dynamic, we can see the direction it is going in. Do we want

:24:58.:25:01.

to be part of that? I suspect Charles Kennedy would have loved a

:25:02.:25:06.

referendum. I cannot help but notice his party is going downhill since he

:25:07.:25:22.

was running it. It is illegal to light up in the workplace, pubs and

:25:23.:25:26.

restaurants. Now the British Medical Association has voted to outlaw

:25:27.:25:30.

everywhere but not everybody at once. It would apply to anyone born

:25:31.:25:35.

after the year 2000. In a moment we will debate the merits of those

:25:36.:25:40.

plans but first he is Adam. There was a time when to be British

:25:41.:25:46.

was to be a smoker. 1948 was the year off peak fag with 82% of men

:25:47.:25:51.

smoking mainly cigarettes but it was a pipe that Harold Wilson used as a

:25:52.:25:56.

political prop to help with the hard-hitting interviews they did in

:25:57.:26:00.

those days. The advertisements make out pipe smokers to be more virile,

:26:01.:26:11.

more fascinating men than anybody else. Do you thought -- have that

:26:12.:26:16.

thought anywhere in your mind? No. It changed in 2006 when smoking in

:26:17.:26:27.

enclosed places was banned. I would rather be inside but unfortunately

:26:28.:26:30.

we have got to do what this Government tells us to do. I think

:26:31.:26:33.

it is good, it is calm and you can Government tells us to do. I think

:26:34.:26:40.

breathe. Research suggests it has improved the health of bar workers

:26:41.:26:44.

no end and reduced childhood asthma. Now just one in five adults is a

:26:45.:26:51.

smoker. Coming next, crackdowns on those newfangled e-cigarettes,

:26:52.:26:55.

smoking in cars and possibly the introduction of plain packaging.

:26:56.:27:00.

There is still those who take pride in smoking and see it as a war on

:27:01.:27:04.

freedom. We're joined now by

:27:05.:27:19.

Dr Vivienne Nathanson from the British Medical Association

:27:20.:27:22.

who voted for a graduated ban on smoking at their conference last

:27:23.:27:27.

week, and Simon Clark They're here to go head-to-head.

:27:28.:27:32.

There are plenty of things which are bad for our health, why single out

:27:33.:27:40.

cigarettes? We need some sugar in our diets but the fact is that we

:27:41.:27:48.

need to stop people smoking as children because if we can do that,

:27:49.:27:53.

the likelihood that they will start smoking is very small. In no

:27:54.:27:57.

circumstances is smoking good for you. There are lots of smokers who

:27:58.:28:02.

live long, healthy lives but we totally accept smoking is a risk to

:28:03.:28:07.

your health and adults have to make that decision, just as you make the

:28:08.:28:12.

decision about drinking alcohol, eating fatty foods and drinking

:28:13.:28:17.

sugary drinks. This proposal is totally impractical. It will create

:28:18.:28:20.

a huge black market in cigarettes which will get bigger every year.

:28:21.:28:25.

They say this is about stopping children smoking but there is

:28:26.:28:30.

already a law in place that stops shopkeepers from selling cigarettes

:28:31.:28:35.

to children. This target adults so you could have the bizarre situation

:28:36.:28:41.

in the year 3035 for example where a 36-year-old can go into shops to buy

:28:42.:28:46.

cigarettes but if you are 35 you will be denied that, which is

:28:47.:28:51.

ludicrous. The point is that the younger you start smoking the more

:28:52.:28:54.

likely you will become heavily addicted. I take the point, but the

:28:55.:29:00.

point he is saying is that if this becomes law, down the road, if you

:29:01.:29:06.

go into shops to buy cigarettes you would have to take your birth

:29:07.:29:10.

certificate, wouldn't you? We have no idea how the legislation would be

:29:11.:29:14.

written but the key point is that if we can stop young people from

:29:15.:29:19.

starting to smoke, we will in 20 years have a whole group of people

:29:20.:29:24.

who have never smoked so you won't have that problem of people who are

:29:25.:29:28.

smokers and they are now in their 20s and 30s. Or you will have a lot

:29:29.:29:32.

of younger people who get cigarettes the way they currently get illegal

:29:33.:29:37.

drugs now. They are already getting cigarettes illegally and we have to

:29:38.:29:42.

deal with that. We have got to get better. The Government has not been

:29:43.:29:49.

able to stop it. We know this is going to kill 50%... When you are 15

:29:50.:29:57.

you think you will live for ever. Indeed but they also do it as

:29:58.:30:01.

rebellion and because they see adults and it is remarkably easy to

:30:02.:30:06.

buy cigarettes. Whatever the case is for individual choice, won't most

:30:07.:30:10.

people agree that if you could stop young people smoking, so that

:30:11.:30:15.

through the rest of their lives they never smoked, that would be worth

:30:16.:30:25.

doing? You get 16 or 17-year-olds who already do that. Is it worth

:30:26.:30:29.

trying? When the government increased the age at which

:30:30.:30:34.

shopkeepers could sell from 16 to 18, we supported it. We don't

:30:35.:30:40.

support a ban on proxy purchasing, we support reasonable measures, but

:30:41.:30:43.

this is unreasonable. This proposal says a lot about the BMA, because

:30:44.:30:49.

this week the BMA also passed a motion to ban the use of E

:30:50.:30:53.

cigarettes in public places. There is no evidence that they are

:30:54.:30:56.

dangerous to health, so why are they doing that? They are becoming a

:30:57.:31:01.

temperance society. This is not about public health, it's an

:31:02.:31:03.

old-fashioned temperance society and they have to get their act together

:31:04.:31:06.

because they are bringing the medical profession into disrepute.

:31:07.:31:12.

We were having argument is about things that people buy large accept,

:31:13.:31:16.

smoking in bars or public places, but the real aim of the BMA was the

:31:17.:31:20.

total banning of cigarettes altogether. This would suggest that

:31:21.:31:26.

that was true to claim that. It's not about a ban, it's about a move

:31:27.:31:29.

to a country where nobody wants to smoke and no one is a smoker. But it

:31:30.:31:35.

would be illegal to smoke. It would be illegal to buy, not smoke, and

:31:36.:31:39.

there's a difference between two. So even if I am born in the year 2000,

:31:40.:31:45.

it would still be illegal to smoke, just illegal to buy the cigarettes?

:31:46.:31:51.

Indeed. The point being that the habit of smoking is very strongly

:31:52.:31:54.

linked to your ability to buy, so that is why things like Price and

:31:55.:31:58.

availability and marketing are so important. People will flood across

:31:59.:32:04.

the Channel with the cigarettes. One thing you will find is that

:32:05.:32:07.

throughout the world people is looking at -- people are looking at

:32:08.:32:10.

the same kind of measures, and different countries like Australia,

:32:11.:32:15.

they were the first with a standardised packaging. Other

:32:16.:32:17.

countries will follow, because all of us are facing the fact that we

:32:18.:32:21.

can't afford to pay for the tragedy. There will be people

:32:22.:32:27.

waiting to flood the market with cigarettes. This is nonsense. Thanks

:32:28.:32:32.

for both coming and going head-to-head.

:32:33.:32:34.

"Unless we have more equal representation, our politics won't

:32:35.:32:38.

be half as good as it should be." So said David Cameron back in 2009.

:32:39.:32:41.

So how's it going? Well, you can judge the quality

:32:42.:32:43.

of the politics for yourself, but we've been crunching

:32:44.:32:46.

the numbers to find out what parliament might look like after

:32:47.:32:48.

the next year's general election. Here's Giles.

:32:49.:32:53.

Politicians are elected to Parliament to represent their

:32:54.:32:57.

constituents, but the make-up of Parliament does not reflect society

:32:58.:33:03.

well at all the parties it. In 2010 more women and ethnic minority

:33:04.:33:05.

candidates entered Westminster but not significantly more inner chamber

:33:06.:33:15.

still dominated by white males. Looking at the current make-up of

:33:16.:33:20.

the Commons, Labour has 83 female MPs, the Conservative have 47 women

:33:21.:33:25.

MPs, which is just over 47% -- and the Lib Dems have 12% of the

:33:26.:33:31.

parties. All of the parties have selected parliaments in those seats

:33:32.:33:34.

where existing MPs are retiring and to fight seats at the next

:33:35.:33:37.

election, and they've all been trying to up the number of women and

:33:38.:33:41.

ethnic minorities because discounts and can be capitalised on. A picture

:33:42.:33:46.

tells a thousand words. Look at the all-male front bench before us. And

:33:47.:33:51.

he says he wants to represent the whole country. Despite the jibe, the

:33:52.:33:56.

Labour Party know they have a long way to go on the issue of being

:33:57.:33:57.

representative. So we way to go on the issue of being

:33:58.:34:09.

look at this particular area of lack of women and ethnic minorities.

:34:10.:34:10.

In the most marginal, 40 have women candidates, that would mean if they

:34:11.:34:42.

got just enough to win power, they would have 133 women, which is 41%

:34:43.:34:48.

The Conservatives currently have 305 MPs and their strategy

:34:49.:34:50.

at the next election is to concentrate on their 40 most

:34:51.:34:53.

marginal seats, and the 40 seats most mathematically likely to turn

:34:54.:34:56.

In those 40, 29 candidates have been selected

:34:57.:34:59.

If they kept hold of their existing seats and won those 29 new ones,

:35:00.:35:04.

they would have 56 women MPs, around 17%, and up 2% from last time.

:35:05.:35:08.

The Liberal Democrats are fighting to hold on to the 57 seats they won

:35:09.:35:11.

at the last election, if they manage that, they would have

:35:12.:35:14.

However all the indications are it could be

:35:15.:35:19.

a bad night for the Lib Dems, if they lost 20 seats, on a uniform

:35:20.:35:23.

swing it would leave them with just four women, 11% of the party.

:35:24.:35:28.

One Conservative peer who thinks the party needs to look at all

:35:29.:35:32.

options if it's female numbers go down in 2015, says Parliament is

:35:33.:35:35.

The bottom line is, if 50% of our population is not being looked at

:35:36.:35:50.

evenly, are we really using the best of our talent? And yes, women's life

:35:51.:35:57.

experiences are different. They are not superior, they are not inferior.

:35:58.:36:01.

They are different. But surely those life experiences need to be

:36:02.:36:02.

represented here at Westminster. So that's the Parliamentary

:36:03.:36:07.

projection for gender, According to the last census

:36:08.:36:08.

in 2011, 13% of people in the UK Labour currently has 16 MPs from

:36:09.:36:14.

black, Asian or minority ethnic backgrounds or just over 6%, if they

:36:15.:36:19.

get their extra 68 seats that figure would go up to 26, 8% of their party

:36:20.:36:23.

were from BAME backgrounds. The Tories currently have 11 BAME

:36:24.:36:27.

candidates, or 4% of the party. If they get an extra 29 seats,

:36:28.:36:34.

that would mean 14 BAME MPs, The Liberal Democrats

:36:35.:36:37.

don't have any BAME MPs. If they manage to cling

:36:38.:36:46.

on to their current number of seats they would have two,

:36:47.:36:51.

giving them a proportion of 4%. If they lost

:36:52.:36:54.

their 20 most vulnerable seats, But even if you changed the mix

:36:55.:36:59.

of gender and ethnicity Only 10% of us have gone to

:37:00.:37:08.

a private fee paid school. A Quarter of all Mps went to Oxford

:37:09.:37:12.

or Cambridge. Only a fifth

:37:13.:37:21.

of us went to any university. There is a huge disillusionment with

:37:22.:37:28.

the political elite due to the fact that these people don't look like

:37:29.:37:32.

us. They don't speak like us, they don't have our experiences and they

:37:33.:37:35.

cannot communicate in a way we relate to. If you look at the

:37:36.:37:40.

turnout, at the moment, if you are an unskilled worker, you are 20

:37:41.:37:43.

points less likely to turn and vote than a middle-class professional and

:37:44.:37:46.

that is getting worse with single election.

:37:47.:37:49.

And that's the key, evidence does suggest that if a

:37:50.:37:51.

Party reflects the society it exists within, it is more likely to get

:37:52.:37:54.

It's just gone 11.35pm, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:55.:38:03.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:38:04.:38:06.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll have more from the panel.

:38:07.:38:18.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:19.:38:20.

With a new series of talks on contentious issues this week,

:38:21.:38:23.

what chance is there of meaningful progress when there

:38:24.:38:26.

And can the politicians do it without outside help?

:38:27.:38:35.

I do believe it is now time to appoint a person who will head up

:38:36.:38:42.

its contribution to the peace process.

:38:43.:38:42.

We hear from three of the parties that'll be there.

:38:43.:38:44.

And with their thoughts, I'm joined today by Professor

:38:45.:38:47.

It's been yet another remarkable week in politics here with

:38:48.:38:55.

a visit from the Queen that saw her tour the Crumlin Road Gaol in the

:38:56.:38:59.

presence of two former inmates - our first and deputy First Ministers.

:39:00.:39:08.

Let us talk about the visit from the Queen. When he was surprised to see

:39:09.:39:17.

the Queen there being shown around by those two individuals with their

:39:18.:39:20.

personal connections to the place? It was a very carefully

:39:21.:39:24.

choreographed visit and everything was on a positive note, it's showing

:39:25.:39:30.

Northern Ireland in a positive note. Gamer flumes, the Titanic, it was

:39:31.:39:34.

trying to sell Northern Ireland plc. Of course it was ironic that she was

:39:35.:39:38.

being shown around by two former inmates, you couldn't make it of!

:39:39.:39:43.

But the jail is a success story and a huge tourist attraction. So I

:39:44.:39:49.

think it was all about being -- showing the positive side of

:39:50.:39:53.

Northern Ireland and investment, foreign investment, economic

:39:54.:39:56.

investments. I think it worked very well. The fact that we knew where

:39:57.:40:00.

she was going to be was a sea change in terms of a Queen's visits. People

:40:01.:40:07.

could come along and participate. There was a real sense of joy and

:40:08.:40:12.

elation that she had chosen to come. People came out in their hundreds to

:40:13.:40:17.

see her. It is completely different, a sign of optimism and

:40:18.:40:24.

confidence. What about the content and the optics of the visit? She

:40:25.:40:28.

made a short speech at Belfast City Hall. What struck you? The overall

:40:29.:40:33.

tone was quite positive and consulates rev. Even the

:40:34.:40:38.

choreography was a reminder for what of the kind of tension that are in

:40:39.:40:42.

place at the moment. She was almost making the move for unionism in a

:40:43.:40:47.

sense, taking steps that we are not seeing Unionism make at this point.

:40:48.:40:52.

I think at the City Hall, given the fractious nature of the relationship

:40:53.:40:56.

as a result of the flight, it has been very, I suppose, important to

:40:57.:41:02.

see her there. Briefly Deirdre, but the Queen have said more? It is

:41:03.:41:08.

interesting that the number of commentators said if only she had

:41:09.:41:13.

been more explicit. I don't think it is the role of the Queen to be

:41:14.:41:17.

explicit in terms of operational policy in Northern Ireland. She is

:41:18.:41:21.

above that. Can you really see her saying I would like you to take down

:41:22.:41:25.

the flags? The bottom line is the Queen will be saying she supports

:41:26.:41:29.

the peace process she also said we have made the impossible possible.

:41:30.:41:34.

She has shown her support. I don't think it would be appropriate for

:41:35.:41:37.

her to say we should take the flags down from the lamp post. Dishing as

:41:38.:41:44.

far as she could go? It is not the role of the monitor, over and said

:41:45.:41:47.

those sorts of things. We should be leading from the ground as opposed

:41:48.:41:51.

to expect in the Queen to do it for us. We both speak more to you later.

:41:52.:41:56.

The White House has always kept a close eye on the political

:41:57.:41:58.

process here and done its bit to push the process forward.

:41:59.:42:01.

So it was timely then that a senior US diplomat was at Stormont

:42:02.:42:04.

on Friday to meet the party leaders and community representatives just

:42:05.:42:07.

days before a round of intensive talks between the parties begin.

:42:08.:42:09.

Our Political Editor, Mark Devenport, spoke to the Assistant

:42:10.:42:12.

It is good news they have agreed to continue the talks in July. That was

:42:13.:42:24.

not an easy decision for all of them to make. They do have decisions to

:42:25.:42:30.

make together, both in terms of the summer season, but also in terms of

:42:31.:42:35.

how they take the work forward, how they take the agenda forward and

:42:36.:42:39.

what process they want to use. Do they see themselves doing it in

:42:40.:42:42.

sequence, what kind of help do they need from their partners, from

:42:43.:42:47.

London, from Dublin, from Washington? How can we be

:42:48.:42:51.

supportive? One thing I would say, having listened to everybody, was to

:42:52.:42:59.

listen -- its really is a moment for leadership. It is a moment for

:43:00.:43:04.

leadership on all sides and from all politicians. Having spoke to some of

:43:05.:43:07.

the civil society leaders this morning, I think it is what the

:43:08.:43:11.

people of Northern Ireland are expecting from all of our

:43:12.:43:17.

politicians and is difficult moment. Do you believe this is the basis for

:43:18.:43:27.

moving forward? I think I think this is that the bomb Northern Ireland

:43:28.:43:30.

and the elected leaders to decide. We do believe the process is helpful

:43:31.:43:34.

in clarifying the issues in creating structure that the partys' can take

:43:35.:43:41.

forward and the people of Northern Ireland can take forward. That some

:43:42.:43:46.

of the ideas that emerged there can be built on. This is the work that

:43:47.:43:51.

people of Northern Ireland and the officials need to take forward. We

:43:52.:43:55.

will support any process and any structure that can gain traction and

:43:56.:44:00.

can bring people together and take Northern Ireland forward.

:44:01.:44:04.

There's been a lot of confusion in recent days about the format

:44:05.:44:07.

for the talks and what precisely will be the agenda.

:44:08.:44:09.

The Deputy First Minister says Sinn Fein is committed to finding

:44:10.:44:12.

a successful outcome and he's called for more support

:44:13.:44:14.

We are taking this very seriously indeed. We want to approach this in

:44:15.:44:24.

a positive and constructive frame of mind. I do believe we should work

:44:25.:44:28.

right through July and August to try and find a way forward. I will have

:44:29.:44:35.

a team in position to do just that. Officially, after the party is here

:44:36.:44:39.

alone, we will find a way forward. The danger is that a way forward may

:44:40.:44:43.

not be found. So, you know, essentially, I believe, and I said

:44:44.:44:51.

this to Victoria in the course of our conversation today, but I do

:44:52.:44:55.

believe it is now time for that ministration to appoint a person who

:44:56.:44:59.

will head up its contribution to this peace process.

:45:00.:45:01.

Joining me now to look ahead to these latest discussions are

:45:02.:45:03.

Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly, Stephen Farry from the Alliance

:45:04.:45:05.

Party, and, in our Foyle Studio, Gregory Campbell of the DUP.

:45:06.:45:16.

Jerry, what hope steel have that these talks will be meaningful? I

:45:17.:45:24.

think we have been having these for a considerable amount of time. It is

:45:25.:45:29.

quite a long time, it is nearly six months, we should follow these talks

:45:30.:45:34.

before now. But we haven't. I think there is an opportunity there, on

:45:35.:45:43.

the talk of July, we have to be not negative about these things. So I

:45:44.:45:49.

think all the issues are known, we need to address -- address these

:45:50.:45:54.

things together because everybody is expecting us to do that. Gregory

:45:55.:45:59.

Campbell, is the DPA going into these talks with a genuine desire

:46:00.:46:03.

and determination to make real progress? yes, progress needs to be

:46:04.:46:07.

made. We have been trying to make progress in recent years and recent

:46:08.:46:12.

months. But we have to be realistic when they are trying to do that, the

:46:13.:46:21.

importers, for example is that we realise we are in the mouth of the

:46:22.:46:24.

breeding season. When you have the likes of Portadown those areas are

:46:25.:46:33.

places where small numbers of unrepresented groups in those

:46:34.:46:38.

communities are whipping up tensions. Unnecessarily so. Issues

:46:39.:46:43.

that should be low-key, that should be non-contentious, with small

:46:44.:46:47.

groups of people trying to make them contentious. Instead Sinn Fein

:46:48.:46:50.

opposing that and exposing those who are doing that, they seem to be

:46:51.:46:54.

onside with the protest is. So the Porton is not good. Whatever the

:46:55.:46:59.

difficulties, we must and shall try and make progress. If you speak to

:47:00.:47:03.

nationalists in Portadown they would say that there you have got orange

:47:04.:47:08.

men who are necessarily, to use at your word, asking for new parades

:47:09.:47:13.

which are clearly going to be controversial? Well they weren't

:47:14.:47:18.

controversial. They went controversial until some Republicans

:47:19.:47:25.

in the area decided to feed what was supposedly new information in, when

:47:26.:47:32.

it wasn't. The parades commission was then exposed for being a good

:47:33.:47:46.

organisation. It is redundant. So, it is quite clearly not fit for

:47:47.:47:50.

purpose. All of those were things we already knew, so let's get down to

:47:51.:47:54.

the hard graft of trying to make progress, however long or short it

:47:55.:47:59.

takes, we must do that. In the context of what we have just heard

:48:00.:48:02.

on this programme on what we have witnessed on other programmes in the

:48:03.:48:05.

last four or five days, how optimistic are you Stephen Farry?

:48:06.:48:13.

People are rightly cynical about the prospects of progress in the short

:48:14.:48:17.

run. Alterman, it is inescapable, we have tapped an agreement about how

:48:18.:48:21.

we deal with parades and the past in Northern Ireland. Also flags. There

:48:22.:48:24.

is a wider problem of what is still a deeply divided society. In terms

:48:25.:48:31.

of the immediacy mark, there are difficulties at present. We need

:48:32.:48:34.

leadership on both sides to back away from confrontation. We are

:48:35.:48:38.

seeing that you are saying words and attempts to wind -- wind the

:48:39.:48:47.

situation up. In the absence of anything on the ground, they are the

:48:48.:48:52.

only show in town. Politicians will stand up for the rule of law.

:48:53.:48:58.

Everybody says we need progress, the parties agree then eased to be

:48:59.:49:01.

progress. What they don't agree on is how that ought to happen. These

:49:02.:49:07.

talks are taking place at a difficult time in the immediate

:49:08.:49:09.

run-up to the marching season. You said we need an agreement on the

:49:10.:49:15.

past, but is it even on the agenda? Unionists said a lot of talk about

:49:16.:49:20.

it is all after the Hallett reports. we can't discuss about at this

:49:21.:49:24.

stage, the talks should address all three issues. There is no realistic

:49:25.:49:29.

prospect of an outcome unless we look at them all in turn. The issue

:49:30.:49:35.

is inescapable that we have tapped agreement on all three. All issues

:49:36.:49:40.

are linked fundamentally. Has the agenda been agreed Gerry Kelly, is

:49:41.:49:45.

the past part of the discussions? Will be issued before urged? We are

:49:46.:49:53.

prepared to talk throughout the summer. My understanding is that we

:49:54.:50:01.

will deal with all three issues. When I said deal with them, we will

:50:02.:50:07.

certainly discuss them. Coming to a conclusion is the big question, but,

:50:08.:50:10.

yes, we will deal with all three issues. There is no point in doing

:50:11.:50:14.

it unless we deal with all three issues. In the past on the agenda

:50:15.:50:19.

Gregory for next Wednesday? Are you trying to be back until after the

:50:20.:50:26.

17th of July? we must know what Lady Justice Hallett says because the UTI

:50:27.:50:34.

issue was, as everybody knows, it was a bolt from the blue, it was one

:50:35.:50:38.

of those issues that comes up now and then which reveals what

:50:39.:50:42.

particularly Republicans were doing behind the backs of people and no

:50:43.:50:47.

one knows about it, then suddenly there is an announcement, then

:50:48.:50:50.

people say others should have known about it. Let us get that issue

:50:51.:50:54.

cleared before we start to talk about what we do about the past,

:50:55.:50:58.

because we need to have people except in their role in the past.

:50:59.:51:13.

Gregory Campbell is representing them. They have made it clear they

:51:14.:51:18.

want to know what Lady Hallett comes out with in the report that is due

:51:19.:51:23.

in the next few weeks. The Gregory is saying that they are not then to

:51:24.:51:26.

talk about it, but that is not our understanding at all. Let us not get

:51:27.:51:33.

caught dancing on the head of a pin. It is interesting that there are

:51:34.:51:39.

different nuances shall we say between the parties already. Is the

:51:40.:51:43.

DUP committed to talking all summer if that's what it takes? You heard

:51:44.:51:47.

Martin McGuinness saying he is available in July and August. Gerry

:51:48.:51:51.

Kelly has just underscore that. What a job party's position? he said he

:51:52.:51:56.

had a team ready but is not the same thing as him saying he is ready to

:51:57.:52:02.

talk about it. We are prepared... Are you ready? yes. We have been

:52:03.:52:10.

ready to talk for a long time. The problem always in Northern Ireland

:52:11.:52:13.

has always been the ground on which talks will be held. That has been a

:52:14.:52:18.

problem. We are cleared the decks on those issues so let us not get tied

:52:19.:52:23.

up and mired in that. The decks are clear let us see if we commit

:52:24.:52:26.

progress because progress needs to made. Stephen Farry, do we need

:52:27.:52:34.

outside help? These talks will be chaired by a senior civil servant,

:52:35.:52:39.

but, we heard Martin McGuinness saying that the Americans can help

:52:40.:52:46.

us? This has to be an issue cracked by the local parties. We must have

:52:47.:52:49.

ownership of the process and ownership of the outcome. Ultimately

:52:50.:52:57.

though, we need input from the two governments, particularly around the

:52:58.:53:03.

past. Obviously the US has been a constant friend and ally in the

:53:04.:53:06.

peace process over the last two decades, and their

:53:07.:53:10.

peace process over the last two terms of encouraging people is

:53:11.:53:11.

critical. terms of encouraging people is

:53:12.:53:19.

discussions to take on terms of encouraging people is

:53:20.:53:21.

Gerry Kelly? Do you know who will be in the hot seat? The issues are

:53:22.:53:30.

fairly small, but I do agree with Stephen and of course, Mark has

:53:31.:53:33.

already said that we have had very positive input from different

:53:34.:53:35.

Americans. It is up to us in the positive input from different

:53:36.:53:45.

to come to a conclusion, but there is the ability for outsiders, those

:53:46.:54:04.

who have no axe to grind, to help. Is it your understanding that the

:54:05.:54:10.

talks will form the basis of why you picked the discussion up from order

:54:11.:54:15.

you start with a blank sheet? From our point of view there is already a

:54:16.:54:19.

bit of work -- a lot of work that has already been done. They may said

:54:20.:54:24.

it wanted up an agenda in some parties, but everybody knows

:54:25.:54:28.

it wanted up an agenda in some are three key issues. These are the

:54:29.:54:36.

three toxic areas that we must deal with and if we don't deal with them

:54:37.:54:39.

soon, they will impact more and more. Is this a busted flush or does

:54:40.:54:47.

it provide a useful template to begin discussions on Wednesday?

:54:48.:54:51.

There was no point in going over old ground. What I do think, and I think

:54:52.:54:56.

most people across the divide do, is that what needs to happen is that

:54:57.:55:00.

consensus, agreement has to be reached, individually, winning

:55:01.:55:03.

groups of people in Northern Ireland. That is the important

:55:04.:55:08.

thing. Whoever they come in from outside, whatever limited help they

:55:09.:55:15.

may offer, they do not bring to bear the very substance of what the

:55:16.:55:18.

problem is. The problem is division in Northern Ireland. I think

:55:19.:55:23.

everybody agrees that is what the problem is. The difficulty is how

:55:24.:55:28.

you move things forward. All Unionists, is the DUP prepared to

:55:29.:55:33.

comprise to reach agreement? we have always been prepared to try and

:55:34.:55:37.

reach a consensus. Reaching consensus means give and take. It

:55:38.:55:43.

cannot always begin on the part of Unionists -- give on the part of

:55:44.:55:48.

Unionists. Nationalists say that is never the case. Look at the

:55:49.:55:53.

restrictions on parades and when people don't use flags or banners,

:55:54.:55:58.

they still have objections levelled at them. Are you saying there should

:55:59.:56:02.

be no restrictions on parades? no, there should be a pragmatic

:56:03.:56:06.

approach. If people do not give offence non-should be taken. People

:56:07.:56:09.

should not be bussed in to take offence. Some people have come all

:56:10.:56:14.

the way from Spain to take offence at a parade. Sinn Fein do not stand

:56:15.:56:21.

up and oppose that. That creates a problem. The bottom line today

:56:22.:56:25.

Gregory Campbell is that you up for compromise, is that right? We are up

:56:26.:56:31.

for reaching a consensus. A consensus means a two-way street on

:56:32.:56:35.

give-and-take. Will you made that Gerry Kelly, halfway? Yes. We have

:56:36.:56:42.

compromised on many things. We have showed leadership. But, when Gregory

:56:43.:56:51.

says that, it is a fact that a lot have -- parades have increased year

:56:52.:56:57.

on year. That is disputed. It is not. I don't know where the dispute

:56:58.:57:04.

has come from. They have disputed it. It has increased year on year.

:57:05.:57:11.

That is a fax. Gregory denies all sorts of things. He's talking about

:57:12.:57:18.

people being bossed -- bussed in. Final word from you Stephen, is it

:57:19.:57:24.

hard to be an optimist in the circumstances? There can't be a

:57:25.:57:31.

win-win for everybody in terms of finding a agreed wage forward. Thank

:57:32.:57:52.

you gentlemen. I think the timing is bad. Given the heated mess around

:57:53.:57:56.

the D-Day marching issues and the parades, things have come back

:57:57.:58:02.

again. It is problematic. Even the language the politicians use is very

:58:03.:58:05.

conservative in terms of its cautious nurse. I will be cautiously

:58:06.:58:12.

optimistic. I think have laid the foundation and say you could go

:58:13.:58:15.

where I wipe the slate clean is ridiculous because it does happen,

:58:16.:58:19.

the discussions are in place. So I think they will go to the bare bones

:58:20.:58:24.

of it now. Deirdre, cautiously optimistic? Would you agree? Yes we

:58:25.:58:32.

must welcome the talks. You may say too little too late at the last

:58:33.:58:40.

July, I don't think we can set aside this. There is a window of

:58:41.:58:43.

opportunity that is diminishing by the day. What we need is people who

:58:44.:58:47.

are willing to sit down, talks of each other, listen, but also, to

:58:48.:58:50.

hear. Thank you. Let's pause for a moment for

:58:51.:58:54.

a look back at the political week The education minister revealed a

:58:55.:59:06.

hold-up saying that he did not have enough money for planned teacher

:59:07.:59:12.

redundancies. The charity blamed the executive for losing money for youth

:59:13.:59:16.

projects. Please sort this out because we need you. The parades

:59:17.:59:24.

commission restricted an Orange parade. a short parade to dedicate

:59:25.:59:36.

to an individual who died of cancer. The police ombudsman said the RUC

:59:37.:59:39.

could prevent the member of one of its officers 37 years ago. The

:59:40.:59:49.

police service in Northern Ireland should no longer be accountable for

:59:50.:59:52.

dealing with issues that predate the Good Friday Agreement. Martin

:59:53.:59:58.

McGuinness got familiar with the Queen.

:59:59.:00:02.

A final thought from Deirdre Heenan and Orna Young.

:00:03.:00:05.

Do you think you will shed any tears over the weekend? Absolutely not. He

:00:06.:00:19.

thought he was coming to a brave new world and suddenly realise we had

:00:20.:00:23.

not moved on in the way he thought. His community policing model did not

:00:24.:00:26.

work and when he leaves he will be shaking the dust of his sandals are

:00:27.:00:28.

not looking back. The big issue though will be how the new Chief

:00:29.:00:33.

Constable, George Hamilton, deals with the loyalists. I think civil

:00:34.:00:38.

society have got to assist him in his new, particularly challenging

:00:39.:00:45.

role. How does George Hamilton demonstrate he is in charge? I think

:00:46.:00:50.

on the back of the flag protests in which he was seen as toothless,

:00:51.:00:54.

on the back of the flag protests in is important it comes in hard in

:00:55.:00:55.

on the back of the flag protests in terms of that policing model, in

:00:56.:00:59.

terms of putting that on the ground and ensuring the rule of law is

:01:00.:01:00.

adhered to. Now back to Andrew in London.

:01:01.:01:15.

but I take your point. Thanks to both of you today. Back to you,

:01:16.:01:16.

Andrew. Now, there have been some

:01:17.:01:22.

less-than-helpful remarks about the way the Labour party makes

:01:23.:01:23.

policy, and they've come from the man who is heading Labour's

:01:24.:01:26.

Policy Review, Jon Cruddas. In a speech to party activists he

:01:27.:01:31.

was recorded saying that, "instrumentalised, cynical nuggets

:01:32.:01:35.

of policy to chime with our focus groups and our press strategies, and

:01:36.:01:37.

our desire for a topline in terms of the 24 hour media cycle,

:01:38.:01:41.

dominate and crowd out any He added that Labour's election

:01:42.:01:43.

strategy was being hampered by a The shadow chancellor, Ed Balls,

:01:44.:01:54.

was asked about what Mr Cruddas had I talked to him a couple of days

:01:55.:02:15.

ago, and he's not frustrated, he is excited about his policy agenda. He

:02:16.:02:20.

is frustrated that one report of 250 pages gets reduced down. So it's our

:02:21.:02:26.

fault? That is the way we live in the world in which we live, but we

:02:27.:02:31.

have big ideas about devolution, long term infrastructure spending

:02:32.:02:35.

and new manufacturing policy, new investment in skills, big changes

:02:36.:02:38.

which, let's be honest, I'm really on George Osborne's agenda. How

:02:39.:02:47.

serious is this? It is Wimbledon, so let's call it an unforced error. You

:02:48.:02:51.

go to the party speeches, and you don't know who is in the audience.

:02:52.:02:55.

There is no need for something as serious as this to happen. It's

:02:56.:02:58.

hugely serious because it speaks about something people have felt for

:02:59.:03:01.

a long time, that they have doled out little nuggets of policy but no

:03:02.:03:05.

overarching story. There was a quite saying the Ed Miliband has given as

:03:06.:03:10.

a shopping list, not a narrative. When people in the party say things

:03:11.:03:13.

that are true, it's very difficult for people to explain it away. Not

:03:14.:03:18.

sure Mr Miliband can win here. He was recently criticised for not

:03:19.:03:21.

having policies. Now he's being criticised for having too many. I

:03:22.:03:26.

think this line of attack is particularly wounding because he

:03:27.:03:29.

prides himself on being a politician of ideas. That is his unique selling

:03:30.:03:35.

point, and the weight that David Cameron's prime ministerial nature

:03:36.:03:39.

is his selling point. So it is wounding. If I was the Labour Party,

:03:40.:03:43.

before announcing any policy, I would ask can help fix us on the

:03:44.:03:48.

economy? It might be radicalised immolating on its own terms, but

:03:49.:03:54.

it's politically useless. -- radical and innovative on its own terms. I

:03:55.:03:58.

don't think any member of the public does not think they are not radical

:03:59.:04:01.

enough or creative enough. If anything, it's the opposite. They

:04:02.:04:04.

are a bit nervous about what a Labour government could do and

:04:05.:04:09.

nervous about the economic reputation. Reassurance, caution,

:04:10.:04:13.

maybe a bit of timidity might be the notions that inform their policies

:04:14.:04:17.

or should inform their policies in night -- my view, not the opposite.

:04:18.:04:23.

I am worried for Jon Cruddas, because anyone who questions the

:04:24.:04:26.

Labour Party are part of the nexus of the banking industry who are

:04:27.:04:30.

terrified of a Labour victory. It's interesting that this goes to the

:04:31.:04:33.

heart of the debate in the Labour Party, at the highest levels, do

:04:34.:04:37.

they put a big offer to the British people, or a little off, John

:04:38.:04:41.

Cruddas offer, or Douglas Alexander offer? Ed Miliband says that his

:04:42.:04:48.

ideas about freezing energy prices and rent controls are a big offer,

:04:49.:04:51.

but his policy chief clearly has real concerns that they don't go far

:04:52.:04:55.

enough. How important a figure is John Cruddas in the project? He is

:04:56.:05:00.

hell of the -- head of the policy review and has a huge amount of

:05:01.:05:05.

power, and so him slagging off the policy review is a bad moment. He is

:05:06.:05:10.

trusted in that inner circle and the problem for Ed Miliband from the odd

:05:11.:05:14.

is that he has people with strong opinions, Maurice clasping is

:05:15.:05:17.

another, big thinkers, but they maybe don't have a precaution that a

:05:18.:05:23.

professional politician might have in terms of giving bland answers.

:05:24.:05:28.

So, David Cameron had to apologise after his former director

:05:29.:05:30.

of communications was convicted of phone hacking.

:05:31.:05:32.

David Cameron's other former friend, Rebekah Brooks, had a better day.

:05:33.:05:36.

At the same trial, she was cleared of all the charges against her.

:05:37.:05:41.

I take full responsibility for employing Andy Coulson. I did some

:05:42.:05:48.

on the basis of undertakings I was given by him about phone hacking and

:05:49.:05:51.

those turned out not to be the case. I always said that if they turned

:05:52.:05:55.

out to be wrong, I would make a full and frank apology, and I do that

:05:56.:06:00.

today. I am extremely sorry that I employed him. It was the wrong

:06:01.:06:05.

decision. I'm clear about that. When I was arrested it was in the middle

:06:06.:06:09.

of a maelstrom of controversy, politics and of comment. Some of

:06:10.:06:13.

that was there, but much of it was not, so I'm grateful to the jury for

:06:14.:06:23.

coming to that decision. Not been a great week for David Cameron. Andy

:06:24.:06:27.

Coulson found guilty, and another person who had worked in Downing

:06:28.:06:30.

Street is also charged on an unrelated issue. And he was 26-2 on

:06:31.:06:36.

the wrong end in Brussels, and there is a poll this morning which no one

:06:37.:06:39.

seems to be talking about which puts Labour nine points ahead. Before all

:06:40.:06:43.

that there was Dominic Cummings criticising the Downing Street

:06:44.:06:48.

operation is being shambolic. Is Mr Cameron's judgement becoming an

:06:49.:06:52.

issue? Yes, what often happens when one leader is under pressure for

:06:53.:06:55.

long enough, as Ed Miliband has been the six months, we get bored. We

:06:56.:06:59.

then switch the Gatling gun to the other guy. So David Cameron going

:07:00.:07:02.

into the Conference season might be the man under pressure. The whole

:07:03.:07:06.

Andy Coulson saga has raised questions about his judgement and

:07:07.:07:09.

those around him, but any political damage she was going to sustain over

:07:10.:07:13.

Andy Coulson and phone hacking was sustained years ago -- he was

:07:14.:07:16.

going. It was Brother beyond the date the News of the World was

:07:17.:07:20.

closed down three summers ago -- it was probably on the date. As the

:07:21.:07:24.

hacking trial cut through to the general public? Or is it just as

:07:25.:07:31.

media and political obsessives? I am sure it has cut through in some way

:07:32.:07:34.

but it didn't necessarily happen in recent days, more likely in recent

:07:35.:07:39.

years. It was some time ago that Andy Coulson resigned in high

:07:40.:07:43.

profile circumstances. It has had a slow burning effect over a few

:07:44.:07:47.

years, and the Prime Minister fears the Big Bang. But there is one theme

:07:48.:07:52.

and words that unites this week with Juncker and Andy Coulson, and that

:07:53.:07:56.

is that the Prime Minister can be lackadaisical. He was lackadaisical

:07:57.:07:59.

in not asking big question is when there was a lot in the public domain

:08:00.:08:03.

about what had happened that the News of the World. And he was

:08:04.:08:07.

lackadaisical with Juncker. He made a calculation that Angela Merkel

:08:08.:08:09.

would support him and it turned out she couldn't. Maybe he needs to

:08:10.:08:13.

change. He was late in understanding what was happening in Germany when

:08:14.:08:17.

both the Christian Democrats, her party, wanted Juncker, and when the

:08:18.:08:24.

actual Murdoch press of Germany said that they wanted him as well. He

:08:25.:08:29.

never saw that. He only looks at one person in Germany, Angela Merkel,

:08:30.:08:33.

and it is a grand coalition, and the SDP felt strongly about it. He is,

:08:34.:08:38.

in a sense, an essay crisis Prime Minister. He is, in a sense, an

:08:39.:08:41.

essay crisis Prime Minister. He's very good in an essay, and the SA

:08:42.:08:46.

gets a double first the essay. Is Ed Miliband right to be angry? He has

:08:47.:08:52.

John Cruddas attacking him, and that is the news leading in the Sunday

:08:53.:08:56.

Times, and has not been a good week the Prime Minister and in which Mr

:08:57.:08:59.

Miliband has a bigger lead in the polls than he has had some time, so

:09:00.:09:03.

he must be wondering why they are having a go at him. He made a

:09:04.:09:07.

tactical error in Prime Minister's Questions by asking all the

:09:08.:09:09.

questions about Andy Coulson. The one at the end about what Gus

:09:10.:09:14.

O'Donnell said was rather hopeful in the extreme. Politicians can be out

:09:15.:09:19.

of touch on all sides of the house. The problem is, and there is a great

:09:20.:09:22.

quote by William Hague, is that the Tory party has two modes, panic and

:09:23.:09:27.

complacency. At the moment they are complacent. They think Ed Miliband

:09:28.:09:30.

will lose Labour election but I don't know if they have a positive

:09:31.:09:33.

plan about how to win it. -- lose Labour the election.

:09:34.:09:36.

Now, we knew Prince Charles had trouble keeping his views

:09:37.:09:38.

about the environment and the countryside to himself,

:09:39.:09:40.

but that's not the only thing he's passionate about according to

:09:41.:09:43.

a radio four documentary to be broadcast this lunchtime.

:09:44.:09:45.

Here's former Education Secretary, David Blunkett on how the Prince

:09:46.:09:50.

had once attempted to influence his policy on schools.

:09:51.:09:53.

I would explain that our policy was not to expand grammar schools, and

:09:54.:09:59.

he didn't like that. He was very keen that we should go back to a

:10:00.:10:06.

different era where youngsters had what he would've seen as the

:10:07.:10:09.

opportunity to escape from their background, where as I wanted to

:10:10.:10:11.

change their background. And you can hear that documentary -

:10:12.:10:13.

it's called The Royal Activist - Does it matter that Prince Charles

:10:14.:10:23.

is getting involved in this kind of policy, released behind closed doors

:10:24.:10:25.

question mark on the issue of grammar schools is not clear anybody

:10:26.:10:32.

listened to him. I think it is a principal problem. I've spoken to

:10:33.:10:35.

form a government members, and judging by what they say, if

:10:36.:10:38.

anything we underestimate how much contacting makes with ministers. And

:10:39.:10:42.

how many representations he makes on the issue that interest him. There

:10:43.:10:47.

has been an attempt to keep it hidden. It's almost a theological

:10:48.:10:51.

question about whether the future monarch should be involved in the

:10:52.:10:55.

public realm. If he wants to influence policy, shouldn't we know

:10:56.:10:58.

what policy he's trying to influence and what position he is taking?

:10:59.:11:04.

Sewer speech is better than private one-on-one lobbying. Possibly -- so

:11:05.:11:10.

a speech. Prince Charles's views are interesting. He's not a straight

:11:11.:11:13.

down the light reactionary. He makes a left-wing case for rammer schools.

:11:14.:11:18.

There is an interview with him in the Financial Times in which his

:11:19.:11:22.

argument in favour for architectural development takes into account

:11:23.:11:26.

affordable housing in the wake which no one would have suspected. He has

:11:27.:11:29.

interesting views, but I'm not convinced on the point of principle

:11:30.:11:33.

whether someone is dashing his position should be speaking. Your

:11:34.:11:37.

former employer 's famously described him as the SDP king. You

:11:38.:11:45.

slightly feel sorry for him. He's 66 and still an apprentice. He's in a

:11:46.:11:51.

difficult position. We know what the powers of the monarch are. They are

:11:52.:11:55.

to advise in courage and warned the Prime Minister of the day. These in

:11:56.:11:59.

the difficult position where the problem for him is that there is a

:12:00.:12:02.

line that isn't really defined, but you slightly feel he just gets a bit

:12:03.:12:06.

too close to it and possibly crosses that line with the lobbying that

:12:07.:12:11.

goes on. I think the worrying thing is that at some point he will become

:12:12.:12:16.

King and will he know that he has got to work within that framework?

:12:17.:12:20.

He is somebody that cannot win either. If he doesn't take an

:12:21.:12:24.

interest in public policy, he will be thought to be a bit of a waster,

:12:25.:12:28.

going round opening town halls, and when he does have an interest we

:12:29.:12:32.

think, hey, you are in the monarchy, stay out. There's an interesting

:12:33.:12:36.

parallel with first ladies who are encouraged to find a controversial

:12:37.:12:42.

charitable project. Michelle Obama has bought childhood obesity, and

:12:43.:12:46.

that is the standard thing. Everybody knows that that is a bad

:12:47.:12:50.

thing, but you are not offering solutions that are party political.

:12:51.:12:54.

I feel there must be a middle way with what he should be able to do

:12:55.:12:57.

about finding big causes he can complain about without getting stuck

:12:58.:13:01.

into lobbying ministers. Which can become a party political issue. He

:13:02.:13:05.

has had some influence on architecture, because the buildings

:13:06.:13:07.

we are putting up to date are better than the ones we used to put up.

:13:08.:13:10.

The Daily Politics is on BBC 2 at 11:00am

:13:11.:13:14.

We'll be back here at the same time next week.

:13:15.:13:19.

Remember if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:20.:13:23.

With Mark Carruthers. Andrew Neil is joined by Europe Minister David Lidington, Conservative MEP Daniel Hannan and Lib Dem Charles Kennedy to discuss David Cameron's EU defeat. Also should there be a complete ban on smoking?


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