16/10/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


16/10/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers are joined by secretary of state for Scotland David Mundell MP and Conservative MPs Adam Afriyie and Kwasi Kwarteng.


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Boris Johnson hosts a summit of allies in London

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to discuss how to broker a peace settlement in Syria.

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But as war continues to rage, could "no-bomb zones" -

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thought to be backed by the Foreign Secretary -

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protect civilians, and how would they work?

:00:53.:00:55.

We were told by the Remain campaign that a vote to leave the EU would

:00:56.:00:58.

But with the economy growing and employment at record

:00:59.:01:04.

Can Theresa May make a decision on airport expansion

:01:05.:01:09.

without triggering a Conservative cabinet bust-up

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We look at what's at stake, as the PM prepares to choose

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And coming up here: A plan to deal with the legacy

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of the past is stuck in the starting blocks -

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We'll hear from the Victims Commissioner, Sinn Fein

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and the Ulster Unionists. on whether to expand Heathrow, is

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Brexit causing uncertainty in the aviation sector?

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All that to come before 12.15 - and the Scottish Secretary, David

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Mundell, on Nicola Sturgeon's plans for a second referendum

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And with me throughout - Tom Newtown Dunn,

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Julia Hartley-Brewer and Steve Richards.

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They'll all be tweeting their thoughts and comments

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So, in just over an hour, the Foreign Secretary,

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Boris Johnson, will host a meeting of foreign allies in London,

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including US Secretary of State John Kerry,

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to discuss military options in Syria.

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Last week, Mr Johnson said the public mood had changed

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after relentless bomb attacks on Aleppo

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and that more "kinetic action" might be possible.

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Has the public mood changed on Syria? There is a desire to end the

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horror, but has the public mood really changed? Not really. When

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asked, the Public say that something must be done and we must stop the

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slaughter, but when also asked whether to put British troops there,

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they say, probably not. We have a new Foreign Secretary and British

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government, and we will have a new White House come January for sure.

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So there is a feeling that what has gone so far in terms of not

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intervening, not trying to oppose or block Putin from doing what he wants

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in Syria has failed, so time to try something else. There was talk of a

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no-fly zone. There's not so much talk about it now. Now there's

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suddenly a no-bomb zone. Are we clear what that would be? It is

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meaningless without a no-fly zone and no one is willing to enforce it.

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For me, the biggest issue is, what is the point of the United Nations?

:03:27.:03:30.

With Russia vetoing any possible peace plan, we are in a situation

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where we are basically handing over our moral authority in the world for

:03:36.:03:39.

dealing with humanitarian disasters and war crimes being committed by

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the side regime and Putin to an organisation which is controlled by

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Putin effectively because he has a veto on the Security Council. The

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situation is untenable. We cannot sit and pretend we don't want to be

:04:02.:04:04.

involved in this war. We are already at war, and we will be at war. We

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need to get to grips with it sooner or later. If we are willing to say

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that we don't care about Syrian children dying... But we are not

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willing to say that, so we need to do something about it. We could care

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deeply but admits there is not something we can do about it.

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Indeed. When Julia says "Get involved", that does not translate

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to anything precise or specific. The problem is you go round in circles

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when it comes to reaction, because when people are then asked what the

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endgame is - and you do need to have a sense of the end and an aim, and

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one of the problems with Iraq was that there was not that - you can

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simply say, something needs to be done and we are involved and there

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should be military action, but that raises 10,000 other questions which

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no one is capable of answering. As I understand it, the no-bomb zone

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would be that we would designate areas where no bombing would be

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allowed. We wouldn't have planes to stop it happening, but if bombing

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did happen in those areas, we would use missiles to take out Syrian

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infrastructure. It seems complicated, and to not take into

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account what we would do if the Russians put anti-missile batteries

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around this Syrian infrastructure, as well they might. And you could go

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one step further. Your understanding is the same as mine. Doing something

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to prevent drops being -- ones being dropped in that area, but without

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engaging with Russia. You could fire cruise missiles into a runway, which

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we were warned could be done, but the problem is, you could have a

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Russian jet in the middle of that runway, or a bus of school kids. We

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know that they are capable of doing that. You are looking towards a

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confrontation with Russia, what ever you do. Boris Johnson would say this

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is the kind of HARDtalk we need to get the man to listen, because

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everything else has failed. Mr Kerry being there is significant, but at

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this stage in the election cycle, it's hard to sue what -- see what Mr

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Obama would do. We have no idea what to reason may's foreign policy is in

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terms of intervention. The last thing she would want to do is to get

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involved in a Middle Eastern war. But we are already involved. And the

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idea that our entire foreign policy should be based on not having a

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conflict in the Putin... The West as a whole is not wanting to have a

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conflict with him, and that is why he is acting how he is.

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Nicola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has repeated her

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warning that, if the UK leaves the single market, she will push for

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Speaking to Andrew Marr earlier this morning, Ms Sturgeon said

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she would not hesitate to protect Scotland's economic interests.

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There's a principle here about, you know,

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Does what we think, and what we say, and how

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And that's what's going to be put to the test, I think,

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Theresa May, perfectly legitimately, says she values the UK,

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In the Independence Referendum, Scotland was told repeatedly

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My message to the Prime Minister is, it's now time to prove these

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things, and demonstrate to Scotland that our voice does count

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within the UK, and our interests can be protected.

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Because if that's not the case, then I think Scotland

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would have the right to decide whether it wanted to follow

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I've been joined by the Secretary of State for Scotland, David Mundell.

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Welcome to the Sunday Politics. During the Scottish referendum

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campaign, two years ago, the ETA Together campaign claimed that the

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only guaranteed way for Scotland to remain in the EU was to stay in the

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UK. That turned out to be untrue. You owe the people of Scotland an

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apology. That isn't the full facts. It was made clear during the

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referendum in Scotland that there could be an EU referendum. Ruth

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Davidson, on many occasions, made it clear that people in Scotland would

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have the opportunity to vote on whether or not they remained in the

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EU. What was clear in that referendum, and you played a

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significant part in highlighting it, was that those who were advocating a

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yes vote could not set out a clear route for Scotland to get into the

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EU as an independent nation. They were told if they stayed in the UK,

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that was their best route to remaining in Europe. It turned out,

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it is obvious that that was untrue. It was a route that meant there was

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going to be an EU referendum. That was made very clear throughout that.

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People voted in Scotland decisively to remain part of the UK in full

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knowledge that there would be a referendum on whether the United

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Kingdom remained in the European Union. That is what the vote on the

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23rd of June in Scotland was about. It was about the UK remaining in the

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EU, not Scotland. The people of Scotland were told to vote for the

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union to be sure of staying in the UK. They also voted 62% to 38% to

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stay in the EU. Now they are being dragged out against their will.

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Surely that is grounds for a second Scottish referendum? I don't accept

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that. I've voted to stay in the EU, but I didn't do so on the basis that

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if I didn't get my own way that Scotland would be dragged out of the

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United Kingdom. We have had a once in a generation vote as to whether

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Scotland remained part of the UK. There was a decisive result in that.

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On the assumption that we would also remain part of the European Union,

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so a major change has taken place. I don't accept that analysis. People

:10:24.:10:26.

were told that there would be a vote on whether the UK remained in the

:10:27.:10:31.

EU. The reasons for Scotland remaining in the UK were

:10:32.:10:35.

overwhelmingly economic, and those issues remain today in relation to

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the UK single market. It is very odd that people who are concerned about

:10:41.:10:42.

the EU single market are quite willing to

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give up the UK single market, which is four times as valuable to

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Scotland, and responsible for a million jobs. If the Scottish

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Government demands another referendum, will the UK Government

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grant it? The UK Government will have two agreed to a referendum, but

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we want to argue that there shouldn't be another referendum. It

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is in Scotland's best interests at the two governments work together

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with 18 UK approach to get the best possible situation for Scotland...

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If the Scottish Parliament decides that we do want -- we do not like

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the terms of Brexit and we want another referendum, would you grant

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it? There would have to be an agreement between the two

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governments in the same form as the Edinburgh Agreement. The great shame

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of the Edinburgh Agreement, which the SNP used to quote repeatedly, is

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that they have not adhere to it, because a fundamental part of that

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would be that both sides would respect the result. Viewers will

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notice that you haven't really answered my question. Could Scotland

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remain inside the single market in Europe as part of the Brexit

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process? From the outset, I have said we would listen to any proposal

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that the Scottish Government brought forward in relation to Scotland's

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interests. We have had for months and no specific proposals have come

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forward. Nicola Sturgeon was talking about proposals this morning, but at

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this moment, I see it impossible that Scotland could remain within

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the EU whilst the rest of the UK leads. It would be difficult to see

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how that could be achieved. But we will listen to any proposals the

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Scottish Government bring forward in relation to achieving the best

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interests of Scotland. I am convinced that Scotland's best

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interests are being part of the UK. You praised Scotland's membership of

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the single market during the referendum. In March of this year

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you said it secured jobs, was vital to tourism and industry, inbound

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visitors and the rest of it. So why would you not want to retain it for

:13:05.:13:09.

Scotland? I agree with the benefits Scotland has received from the

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single market, but we are in a different situation now. The UK is

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negotiating its exit from the EU. The Prime Minister has said it is

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not going to be on the basis of existing arrangements, it will be on

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the basis of a new arrangement, and as part of that, we will want to

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secure the best arrangement for Scottish businesses. Given the

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history we have gone through, do you want to guarantee a special post

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Brexit status for Scotland. We leave the EU, but Scotland will have a

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distinct status? I'm willing to look at any proposal brought forward that

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looks at Scotland's interests. We have had no specifics from the

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Scottish Government. They say now that they have them. It is a bit rum

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to attack the Scottish Government. The principle is, could Scotland

:14:07.:14:09.

have a special position, and would you help that or not? I am willing

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to listen to any proposal brought forward. Will fishing and farming go

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back to Edinburgh? The devolution settlement are going to be a

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change,... Will they go to Edinburgh or to London? We will have a

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decision at the end of that process. I want to make sure we have the best

:14:34.:14:40.

arrangement for Scotland. You can't answer the question? We want to

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listen to what fishermen and farmers say, and the people of Scotland. It

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will be a package of arrangements, clearly, that need to be taken

:14:50.:14:54.

forward as a result of leaving the EU. One final question. If the

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Scottish Nationalist MPs vote against grammar schools, which are

:14:59.:15:03.

purely for England, isn't that proof that your English votes for English

:15:04.:15:05.

laws isn't working? It demonstrates all MPs in the

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Parliament have the opportunity to vote on all issues. You wouldn't

:15:16.:15:20.

mind if they voted to stop Grammar schools? Of course I wouldn't --

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would mind... I think we have got the balance right in that

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legislation. It is meaningless if they can vote to stop grammar

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schools when it doesn't affect Scotland. They have to answer for

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that, based on an opportunistic approach and cause resentment in

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England. Thank you for being with us.

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During the EU Referendum campaign, leading Remain supporters repeatedly

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warned that a vote to leave the European Union would cause

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Three months on, were their forecasts accurate?

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Since the vote on June 23rd, the economic news

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The value of the pound has been in pretty steady depreciation

:16:08.:16:10.

since referendum day, falling to a 31-year

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It was as low as $1.18 but has still rebounded a bit.

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The weak pound left Tesco in a situation.

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They stopped selling Marmite and other products for a day online

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And a leaked Treasury report said that Government tax revenues

:16:28.:16:31.

could be down by 66 billion a year in a post-Brexit economy.

:16:32.:16:34.

Though the report emanated from Project Fear days.

:16:35.:16:42.

However, many of the short-term economic fundamentals

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The dominant service sector grew a healthy 0.4% in July.

:16:44.:16:51.

In the same month, the unemployment rate dipped to under 5%,

:16:52.:16:54.

House-buying has also been rising since the referendum,

:16:55.:17:00.

nearly 110,000 properties were purchased in August.

:17:01.:17:03.

Is the economy already suffering from the Brexit blues or not?

:17:04.:17:10.

Joining me now is the former shadow Europe Minister,

:17:11.:17:13.

the Labour MP Pat McFadden, who was a Business Minister

:17:14.:17:15.

Do you know concede that nearly all the short-term economic forecasts

:17:16.:17:29.

made by the Remain campaign have turned out to be untrue at best,

:17:30.:17:34.

scaremongering at worst? No, I think this week was the week that the

:17:35.:17:39.

beginnings of the economic effects of Brexit began to take hold, most

:17:40.:17:45.

obviously on the currency fall. You talk about short-term, this began on

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the night of the referendum itself and was given booster rockets by the

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signals sent out by the Conservative Party conference. In terms of the

:17:55.:17:58.

warnings next to reality, the warnings about the fall of the

:17:59.:18:02.

currency speculated that it might fall in value by about 12%, the

:18:03.:18:08.

reality is closer to 20%. Let's look at some of the warnings. We will

:18:09.:18:17.

come back to the currency, but let's look at this. The Treasury report on

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maybe 23rd said the following: That turned out to be untrue, didn't

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it? What has happened here, which isn't in line with those warnings,

:18:34.:18:38.

is consumer confidence has remained high. The actions of the Bank of

:18:39.:18:42.

England in cutting interest have been important, so the short-term

:18:43.:18:45.

effect in terms of consumer confidence... So it is wrong? Hasn't

:18:46.:18:54.

turned out in line with that, but it would be complacent in the extreme

:18:55.:18:57.

to conclude that with the effects of the currency which we know also from

:18:58.:19:02.

the Bank of England's comments the other dates will feed into higher

:19:03.:19:07.

prices, which will hit lower income consumers hardest. But we don't know

:19:08.:19:15.

yet, I will come onto that but in the short term, I will show you

:19:16.:19:19.

another one. A month before the referendum, the Chancellor George

:19:20.:19:21.

Osborne said this: That turned out to be wronged too,

:19:22.:19:34.

didn't it? We are not in recession but if you look at the forecasts of

:19:35.:19:38.

growth over the next few years, the Bank of England have forecast growth

:19:39.:19:43.

next year to not be the 2.3% it thought before the referendum but to

:19:44.:19:52.

be 0.8%. Is it forecasting a recession? No, but it is forecasting

:19:53.:19:57.

a slowdown which would mean GDP after two years would be for the ?5

:19:58.:20:02.

billion less than the estimates before the referendum took place.

:20:03.:20:06.

And it might be wrong, because look, it was wrong about the recession. Is

:20:07.:20:13.

anybody now forecasting a recession? I don't know if anybody is

:20:14.:20:18.

forecasting a recession. The IMF are certainly forecasting a slowdown in

:20:19.:20:21.

a similar way to the Bank of England. George Osborne also said

:20:22.:20:28.

house prices will plummet by 18%. Any sign of that? House prices are

:20:29.:20:36.

not plummeting by 18%. Your side that you represent made much of the

:20:37.:20:40.

IMF's claim that provoked Leave would mean an immediate slide into

:20:41.:20:45.

recession, a collapse in house prices, and a crash in stock markets

:20:46.:20:52.

which of course are currently at record levels. Even the IMF admits

:20:53.:21:00.

there is none of that. There maybe longer term dangers but in the

:21:01.:21:05.

short-term it happen. In the short-term it didn't happen. In the

:21:06.:21:09.

short term what has happened here, as I said a moment ago, is consumer

:21:10.:21:14.

confidence has remained high, the Bank of England cut interest rates

:21:15.:21:18.

which put more money into people's pockets and I think the action they

:21:19.:21:23.

took was important, but I think it would be wrong to say imply that

:21:24.:21:27.

because these things haven't happened in the first few months

:21:28.:21:32.

that we are somehow out of the woods on the economy. I understand that,

:21:33.:21:36.

that's the last thing I would say, but here's the question - most of

:21:37.:21:41.

these forecasters are still pretty gloomy about the long-term but if

:21:42.:21:45.

they couldn't get the last few months right, why would you trust

:21:46.:21:50.

them for 2025 when they couldn't say what will happen in September? Why

:21:51.:21:56.

would you trust them to say what happens five years from now? People

:21:57.:22:02.

will ask the question but the big tangible we have is in the decline

:22:03.:22:08.

of the currency and that is a real and now effect. We can talk about

:22:09.:22:13.

whether it is lost or minus, but the Government said the other day this

:22:14.:22:17.

would bring inflation back, to use his words it is going to get

:22:18.:22:21.

difficult, particularly for people on lower incomes and that will feed

:22:22.:22:26.

into people's purchasing power. The international markets partaking of

:22:27.:22:30.

you have our future prospects and at the moment it is not a vote of

:22:31.:22:36.

confidence. Do you agree with the latest Remain mantra that people

:22:37.:22:40.

might have voted to leave the EU but didn't necessarily vote to leave the

:22:41.:22:46.

single market? I do agree with that. A lot of people have said people who

:22:47.:22:50.

voted to leave didn't know that's what they were voting for, so let me

:22:51.:22:54.

show you a clip of David Cameron at the height of the referendum

:22:55.:22:59.

campaign. The British public would be voting if we leave to leave the

:23:00.:23:04.

EU and the single market, we then have to negotiate a trade deal from

:23:05.:23:09.

outside with the European Union. There you have it loud and clear on

:23:10.:23:14.

BBC television, voting Leave means leaving the single market, not

:23:15.:23:19.

losing access to it but leaving the membership of it. We have George

:23:20.:23:23.

Osborne on tape saying the same thing, so why do you make out Leave

:23:24.:23:28.

voters didn't know what they were voting for? I think people voted

:23:29.:23:33.

Leave for a number of different reasons. For some it might have been

:23:34.:23:38.

immigration, for some it might have been the promise of more money for

:23:39.:23:43.

the NHS, but there are number of countries outside the EU which can

:23:44.:23:46.

have full access to the single market, we know about Norway and on.

:23:47.:23:51.

But they all have to pay in and have free movement. We can come onto that

:23:52.:23:58.

but what I'm saying is it's not the case that when you are outside the

:23:59.:24:01.

EU you necessarily have to be outside the single market and the

:24:02.:24:05.

reason this is important is because this has been a cornerstone of

:24:06.:24:09.

British economic policy for many years, particularly in terms of our

:24:10.:24:16.

inward investment, and the reasons why both manufacturing industry and

:24:17.:24:19.

financial services has invested and created employment in the UK, and I

:24:20.:24:25.

think it would be cavalier to begin this negotiation by closing the door

:24:26.:24:30.

on that. Is it Labour's policy, I know you don't speak for Labour

:24:31.:24:34.

leadership, but is it their policy to remain in the single market? You

:24:35.:24:39.

are right, I'm a backbencher, but it is the policy to have as full access

:24:40.:24:44.

as possible to the single market. At least what we have now in terms of

:24:45.:24:51.

goods and services. You can call it membership or not but that is what

:24:52.:24:54.

Keir Starmer and the Labour Party wants. The old party home affairs

:24:55.:25:02.

select committee is blaming Jeremy Corbyn's lack of leadership for

:25:03.:25:05.

creating a safe space for what they call vile anti-Semitism. Do you

:25:06.:25:12.

agree with that? I think this report should be taken seriously. The

:25:13.:25:16.

atmosphere in the Labour Party, there has been a lot of nasty things

:25:17.:25:21.

said on social media over the past year in particular. I hope we don't

:25:22.:25:26.

make the mistake of shooting the messenger, I hope we take the report

:25:27.:25:30.

seriously and I hope we don't fall into the trap that sometimes I see

:25:31.:25:34.

when these accusations are wielded, that we point to antiracism records

:25:35.:25:40.

and say look at our virtue in our record here, that must mean we

:25:41.:25:45.

cannot be anti-Semitic. Let me be clear about this, pointing to your

:25:46.:25:49.

own sense of righteousness is no excuse for nastiness or cruelty to

:25:50.:25:53.

someone else so we should take this very seriously indeed. Pat McFadden,

:25:54.:25:58.

thank you for being with us this morning.

:25:59.:26:04.

A third runway at Heathrow was first given the green

:26:05.:26:06.

light by Gordon Brown's government in 2009.

:26:07.:26:08.

Almost eight years on, could Theresa May be about finally

:26:09.:26:10.

to allow Heathrow expansion to go ahead?

:26:11.:26:12.

Or could she surprise everyone and back Gatwick instead?

:26:13.:26:16.

Maybe she will come out in favour of both of them!

:26:17.:26:19.

A decision is expected imminently, but it's not straightforward

:26:20.:26:21.

Several members of her cabinet are opposed to any plan to expand

:26:22.:26:25.

Heathrow, and reports suggest as many as 60 of her backbenchers

:26:26.:26:28.

Our reporter, Mark Lobel, has been looking at

:26:29.:26:31.

A growing number of people want to take more flights and some

:26:32.:26:40.

accuse the Government of dragging their feet over

:26:41.:26:42.

All the while, our airports are operating flat-out.

:26:43.:26:53.

So this is fully autonomous, you just have to press the start

:26:54.:26:59.

Matthew Hill is from a business-backed group campaigning

:27:00.:27:05.

We haven't had a full-length runway in London and the south-east

:27:06.:27:09.

Gatwick was built in the 1930s, Heathrow in the 1940s,

:27:10.:27:14.

Heathrow is full, Gatwick will be full in the next few years.

:27:15.:27:20.

Matthew's group claims the lack of a new runway is costing us

:27:21.:27:23.

I think there are huge economic benefits from the construction

:27:24.:27:30.

At the moment, because we don't have that new runway, we don't

:27:31.:27:34.

have that new capacity, the new flights to new markets,

:27:35.:27:36.

we are missing out on ?9.5 billion a year in lost trade.

:27:37.:27:40.

Until we get that decision and we get that runway

:27:41.:27:43.

built, we will continue to lose out on that trade.

:27:44.:27:46.

One airport that's eager to expand is Heathrow,

:27:47.:27:49.

either by expanding this northern runway, the one closest to us here,

:27:50.:27:52.

or, the Airports Commission's favourite proposal, building

:27:53.:27:55.

a new runway parallel to here, about a kilometre that way in place

:27:56.:27:59.

It's said that would offer 40 new destinations from the airport,

:28:00.:28:07.

carry lots more air freight, provide 70,000 new jobs

:28:08.:28:09.

and an overall boost to economic activity in the country,

:28:10.:28:15.

with a promise of no night flights, new environmental and community

:28:16.:28:17.

Heathrow's hub status also services many of the UK's other airports,

:28:18.:28:27.

On average, every year a quarter of a million passengers travel

:28:28.:28:33.

to and from this key exporting region via Heathrow,

:28:34.:28:36.

While we've been very strong supporters of a third runway

:28:37.:28:41.

at Heathrow, we think it's in the best interests

:28:42.:28:43.

of the north-east, we also think it's in the best

:28:44.:28:46.

Our services connect to many, many destinations across the world,

:28:47.:28:55.

and allow businesses to trade right the way across the globe.

:28:56.:29:02.

Gatwick Airport also wants to expand with another runway here.

:29:03.:29:08.

By doubling Gatwick's capacity, the plan would create 22,000

:29:09.:29:11.

new jobs, a vastly expanded short-haul network, and more

:29:12.:29:14.

I think the expansion of Gatwick will bring firstly

:29:15.:29:20.

the certainty of delivery, we can have spades in the ground

:29:21.:29:23.

in this Parliament and we can be operational in the next,

:29:24.:29:29.

so that's within ten years we can have a new runway,

:29:30.:29:32.

and Gatwick can provide the increased capacity at a price

:29:33.:29:34.

Now, before anyone gets carried away, there are of course some

:29:35.:29:42.

people who would far prefer no extra planes in the sky.

:29:43.:29:48.

We already fly more than everybody else,

:29:49.:29:50.

most of these are leisure flights, well who's taking

:29:51.:29:52.

Actually 70% of all of our flights are taken by 15% of the population.

:29:53.:29:58.

It's a wealthy frequent-flying elite.

:29:59.:30:02.

But with approval of a third runway looking likely,

:30:03.:30:08.

could more protests be on the horizon?

:30:09.:30:17.

I can tell you now, they are dusting off the handcuffs, you know,

:30:18.:30:20.

And you have to remember, Heathrow, if they choose to expand

:30:21.:30:23.

Heathrow, you are talking about hundreds of homes

:30:24.:30:25.

being bulldozed, whole communities being eradicated, wiped off the map.

:30:26.:30:28.

Over the last few years, since the last big protest around

:30:29.:30:31.

Heathrow, the relationship between local people around

:30:32.:30:33.

the airport and grass roots climate change activists

:30:34.:30:36.

Those guys are going to get together and just cause merry hell for people

:30:37.:30:41.

The Prime Minister, Theresa May, who once called for a better not

:30:42.:30:50.

bigger Heathrow whilst in opposition, will chair a select

:30:51.:30:53.

group of colleagues expected to decide imminently

:30:54.:30:56.

on whether to build a new runway and where.

:30:57.:30:59.

It will then take months for a national policy statement

:31:00.:31:02.

outlining the new works to get drawn up before MPs get to vote on it,

:31:03.:31:07.

leaving plenty of time for any further opposition to airport

:31:08.:31:11.

I've been joined by two Conservative MPs.

:31:12.:31:19.

Adam Afriyie is opposed to Heathrow expansion,

:31:20.:31:21.

Adam, the independent Daviess report into runway expansion said the case

:31:22.:31:42.

for Heathrow was clear and unanimous in the Commission. 180,000 more

:31:43.:31:48.

jobs, more than ?200 billion in economic benefits. So why are you

:31:49.:31:53.

putting the interests of your constituency before the national

:31:54.:31:57.

interest? I will fight tooth and nail for the interests of my

:31:58.:31:59.

constituents, but the wonderful thing about the binary choice

:32:00.:32:03.

between Heathrow and Gatwick is that it is not in the regional or

:32:04.:32:08.

consumers' interests to expand Heathrow. The Daviess report has

:32:09.:32:16.

already been largely undermined. There are 17 reasons why it doesn't

:32:17.:32:22.

work and is wrong. Number one, they said Gatwick would not have 42

:32:23.:32:29.

million passengers until 2024. This year, they already have 42 million

:32:30.:32:33.

passengers. Gatwick have increased their destinations to 20 now, which

:32:34.:32:38.

they didn't expect either. The Davies review was good in its day,

:32:39.:32:43.

but is it had a limited remit. They were talking about Heathrow as a

:32:44.:32:50.

hub, but the airline industry has changed. We have to pay to this for

:32:51.:32:55.

more than 15 years. The government White Paper in 2003 suggested we

:32:56.:33:04.

should expand Heathrow. ?20 million and 12 years later, the Davis Report

:33:05.:33:09.

came to the same conclusion. We are never going to get any form of

:33:10.:33:13.

progress on this is competing MPs are allowed to frustrate the

:33:14.:33:18.

process. You could have had about three people who are Gatwick MPs

:33:19.:33:23.

arguing very passionately against Adam's desire to expand Gatwick. The

:33:24.:33:29.

point is, we are in a paralysis. We are having a theological debate that

:33:30.:33:34.

will last decades, and Heathrow is... Why Heathrow? Why not expand

:33:35.:33:40.

Gatwick and increase the capacity of our regional airports? I thought the

:33:41.:33:44.

government's strategy was to rebalance the economy in favour of

:33:45.:33:48.

the North and the Midlands. If you listen to northern MPs, or people

:33:49.:33:53.

representing Northern or Scottish interests, they all say they want to

:33:54.:33:59.

increase Heathrow. The SNP said last week they wanted Heathrow to be

:34:00.:34:03.

expanded. If you want to help the economy is in those areas, listen to

:34:04.:34:07.

what they are saying. They are saying expand Heathrow. 32 regional

:34:08.:34:15.

airports support the expansion of Heathrow to maintain its position as

:34:16.:34:19.

one of the global hubs. Even the Scottish Government agrees with

:34:20.:34:24.

expanding Heathrow. They all say, we want to be a serious player in

:34:25.:34:30.

aviation. We need a global hub, and that is Heathrow. The interesting

:34:31.:34:33.

thing is that there is no argument that Heathrow is the UK hub, and no

:34:34.:34:38.

one is trying to get rid of that. But if you are adding a single new

:34:39.:34:43.

runway, is it better to add it at Heathrow or Gatwick, and for me it

:34:44.:34:59.

is overwhelmingly clear. Heathrow is the most expensive airport in the

:35:00.:35:03.

world. If you add another runway at taxpayer expense, you make it even

:35:04.:35:05.

more expensive. So flight prices go up. Whether or not Heathrow could

:35:06.:35:07.

ever be delivered is another question. My own Borough Council as

:35:08.:35:11.

part of the legal action... So even if the decision is made, we may not

:35:12.:35:17.

see the capacity. At Gatwick is dirt cheap. It can be delivered within

:35:18.:35:24.

ten years. But it is not a global hub airport. But the hub that we

:35:25.:35:28.

have at Heathrow is perfectly adequate for the next ten or 15

:35:29.:35:34.

years. It is running at 99% capacity. Every airline, the new

:35:35.:35:42.

planes being ordered... The airline have decided that the hub capacity

:35:43.:35:46.

is sufficient and they are moving to a different model. Let me ask you

:35:47.:35:53.

this. We haven't built a major new runway in London and the south-east

:35:54.:35:59.

for 60 years. Since 1946, so 70 years. Why not expand Heathrow and

:36:00.:36:06.

Gatwick? Personally, I would do both. If we are serious about having

:36:07.:36:11.

international trade and Golding links to the outside world,

:36:12.:36:17.

especially after Brexit, we have to get serious about aviation and

:36:18.:36:21.

accept that we need more capacity. I think it's scandalous we haven't

:36:22.:36:25.

managed to expand capacity for 70 years, when we think of the economic

:36:26.:36:29.

growth that has happened in that time. If we want to build a

:36:30.:36:34.

prosperous economy, it seems bizarre we are reluctant to increase

:36:35.:36:38.

aviation. Whatever the decision, do you think there will be a free vote

:36:39.:36:43.

on this? I think this is one area where I think the government does

:36:44.:36:55.

need to take a lead, and I hope they will make a rational choice for

:36:56.:36:57.

Gatwick. If the government comes out for Heathrow, will you defy the

:36:58.:37:03.

whips? Yes. I will always vote for Heathrow, because it doesn't make

:37:04.:37:09.

economic sense. If MPs are happy at the prospect of Heathrow... Does the

:37:10.:37:15.

figure strike a chord with you? I would hope there would be more, but

:37:16.:37:19.

it depends on the political position of Labour and the SNP. I hope that

:37:20.:37:23.

the government decides inclusively... Ad is doing what he

:37:24.:37:29.

feels is the best for his constituents. I think 60 is way off

:37:30.:37:35.

the mark. I don't know what journalists suggested 60 Tory MPs.

:37:36.:37:43.

My sense is that it is probably about 20 hard-core people in the

:37:44.:37:46.

House of Commons. I think it will be a free vote. If it is 20 hard-core,

:37:47.:37:54.

you will need Labour to get it through? Labour MPs were very keen

:37:55.:37:58.

on supporting Heathrow, in my experience. It may be delayed again,

:37:59.:38:05.

of course. After 70 years, what's another week here or there!

:38:06.:38:08.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:09.:38:21.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:22.:38:23.

They've agreed the structures to deal

:38:24.:38:25.

with the legacy of the past, but the plan remains stuck

:38:26.:38:27.

in the starting blocks because of a row over disclosure

:38:28.:38:29.

and a failure to agree funding for inquests.

:38:30.:38:34.

So almost a year after the Fresh Start Agreement, what does

:38:35.:38:36.

the Victims' Commissioner think of the efforts being made

:38:37.:38:38.

on the latest efforts to help bring this issue to a conclusion.

:38:39.:38:48.

And with their thoughts on all of that and more,

:38:49.:38:50.

my guests of the day are

:38:51.:38:52.

They agreed it as part of the Stormont House negotiations,

:38:53.:39:04.

but making any real progress on dealing with the legacy

:39:05.:39:07.

Victims and survivors had hoped that a package which includes

:39:08.:39:11.

a new investigations unit, an oral history archive and enhanced

:39:12.:39:15.

funding for Troubles-related inquests would be up

:39:16.:39:17.

But instead, Sinn Fein and the Secretary of State

:39:18.:39:22.

are still in dispute over disclosure of official papers, while the DUP's

:39:23.:39:25.

being accused of blocking funding for inquests

:39:26.:39:28.

We'll hear from Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly and the Ulster Unionist

:39:29.:39:33.

leader, Mike Nesbitt, in just a moment.

:39:34.:39:35.

But first, the Commissioner for Victims and Survivors,

:39:36.:39:37.

You were disappointed when this issue wasn't resolved

:39:38.:39:47.

in the Fresh Start deal and was put on hold before the election -

:39:48.:39:50.

We currently have around 12 hundred to 1600 deaths not yet investigated.

:39:51.:40:11.

We have proposed legislation for that unit and I believe that that

:40:12.:40:16.

has been a further worked on in the margins since last November and I

:40:17.:40:20.

believe there have been conversations in the margins about

:40:21.:40:23.

how some of those things which were blocked at the time could be

:40:24.:40:27.

overcome and I have not been privy to all those discussions and will

:40:28.:40:30.

not expect to be, but I believe these matters certainly run the

:40:31.:40:35.

disclosure of information are not insuperable if we can get over them.

:40:36.:40:42.

There are individuals who have been through repeated iterations over the

:40:43.:40:46.

years, initiatives designed to give them some truth and access in

:40:47.:40:49.

principle to justice and accountability. These people have

:40:50.:40:56.

been let down many, many times. It doesn't make it easier, but it is

:40:57.:41:01.

happening again. I think there is a loss of faith in people's intention

:41:02.:41:09.

to deliver for them, if we delay this. But I do think it's achievable

:41:10.:41:11.

and now is the time. In March this year, you warned

:41:12.:41:14.

the Government that it can't hide behind national security in dealing

:41:15.:41:16.

with the legacy from the Troubles. Is that what it's still attempting

:41:17.:41:19.

to do, in your view? I know it is still under

:41:20.:41:27.

consideration and there have been proposed solutions. I don't believe

:41:28.:41:32.

it is impossible to agree something sufficiently robust and transparent

:41:33.:41:37.

to give confidence and yet does recognise that there are genuine

:41:38.:41:41.

human rights issues around keeping people safe and community safety

:41:42.:41:47.

matters of disclosure. So when a James Brokenshire says he believes

:41:48.:41:50.

it should enter a public face sooner rather than later, does that

:41:51.:41:55.

indicate to you that we may just be inching towards the point where that

:41:56.:41:59.

matter, one of the key sticking points, is resolvable and the two

:42:00.:42:07.

sides to that disagreement believe that to be the case? On the halves

:42:08.:42:12.

of victims, survivors and witnesses, I hope so. I believe if we're going

:42:13.:42:16.

to see the legislation needed to put some of these institutions in place,

:42:17.:42:21.

if we're going to see that in this session, then we need to see

:42:22.:42:25.

something of a consultation on this side of Christmas, so I hope that

:42:26.:42:31.

is... Also, it is really important and, for a moment, I'm not critical

:42:32.:42:34.

politicians here, it is important that what does get put in place is

:42:35.:42:40.

fit for purpose, trustworthy, transparent and deals evenhandedly

:42:41.:42:43.

with issues where I think right across different victims and

:42:44.:42:50.

survivors who have different wishes, fears and priorities, that wish more

:42:51.:42:55.

truth and the balanced fair process is the only way forward to deal with

:42:56.:43:00.

it. That hasn't changed, has it? You are now talking about a need for

:43:01.:43:05.

that to happen sooner rather than later. But you said that several

:43:06.:43:10.

months ago. Before the election, before the party is going to serious

:43:11.:43:14.

business of electioneering, and that did not happen. It hasn't, I

:43:15.:43:21.

absolutely urge politicians to do this. I believe that at the time of

:43:22.:43:27.

the Good Friday Agreement there were reasons why these issues were too

:43:28.:43:31.

difficult and, if you like, be pushed down the road. But it is now

:43:32.:43:35.

18 years later and those who suffered most are still awaiting for

:43:36.:43:41.

truth and acknowledgement, justice where it is achievable and, let us

:43:42.:43:45.

not forget, there are a series of measures he designed to look after

:43:46.:43:49.

people who have been harmed, so we have something like 500 people who

:43:50.:43:55.

have been permanently and severely injured as a consequence of Tripple

:43:56.:43:58.

X III related incidents. There are now old and have not been able to

:43:59.:44:03.

earn a living under without a pension. A pension was promised and

:44:04.:44:08.

that is equally something we need to look at, because people aren't

:44:09.:44:11.

getting younger and we need to look after those who were harmed as well

:44:12.:44:14.

as dealing with those truth and justice issues.

:44:15.:44:32.

The huge issues looking back on the past and facing up to what people

:44:33.:44:39.

did and did not do over 35 or more years ago, may never in fact be

:44:40.:44:45.

resolved. That could be kicked down the street in perpetuity. Does that

:44:46.:44:51.

worry you that that may be the case? I fundamentally disagree you should

:44:52.:44:54.

disentangle these things. You think they can't be? I think they should

:44:55.:45:00.

not be and probably, the achievement of the whole package will be best

:45:01.:45:04.

achieved by doing it all at once, because different people have

:45:05.:45:08.

different needs, and priorities, and if you look after one set not

:45:09.:45:12.

another, you inevitably create a situation which some people feel

:45:13.:45:18.

disadvantaged. There is a need for transparency, openness and

:45:19.:45:21.

acknowledgement, but equally, you must look after those who were

:45:22.:45:24.

harmed. If you do one without the other, you miss out on the fact they

:45:25.:45:28.

are connected. Actually, justice issues cause mental health problems,

:45:29.:45:33.

that people who are denied truth and acknowledgement suffer mental health

:45:34.:45:36.

issues as a consequence. These things are not separate and the

:45:37.:45:43.

approach to dealing with as a collective IQ seems correct to me.

:45:44.:45:46.

The issue is not directly connected to this one and it is not explicitly

:45:47.:45:49.

part of what you necessarily want to talk about at the moment and what

:45:50.:45:53.

you are responsible for, but do you believe that if that issue of the

:45:54.:45:59.

outstanding inquests into troubles related killings can be unlocked and

:46:00.:46:03.

the process can be set in motion? That could help movement on some of

:46:04.:46:07.

these other seemingly contracts will issues? Yes, legacy inquests are not

:46:08.:46:14.

technically part of this agreement, but I believe they've become

:46:15.:46:17.

entangled in these negotiations. There are something like 54 inquests

:46:18.:46:24.

still to be conducted and we've achieved justice and took

:46:25.:46:27.

responsibility a year ago for a situation not of his making. He has

:46:28.:46:31.

made proposals and put a cost on them and I feel that should we get

:46:32.:46:37.

agreement on the historical investigations unit and other

:46:38.:46:40.

measures that are likely to make it easier to unlock the issue of legacy

:46:41.:46:47.

interests. You hope for them? I would be hopeful that we will see

:46:48.:46:50.

some progress on legacy inquests as well. Thank you.

:46:51.:46:52.

Well, Sinn Fein's Gerry Kelly and the Ulster Unionist leader,

:46:53.:46:55.

Mike Nesbitt, have been listening to that.

:46:56.:46:57.

Gerry, your reaction to the comments of Judith Thompson?

:46:58.:47:20.

Well, I listened to that and there's nothing she said I would disagree

:47:21.:47:28.

with. Nothing at all? Nothing I can see. She's pointed out what is

:47:29.:47:33.

necessary and we agreed on it. He pointed out the problems at the

:47:34.:47:36.

beginning of the programme and one of them is the veto that the state

:47:37.:47:40.

and managed to keep in terms of national so at it. James

:47:41.:47:45.

Brokenshire, and we've met him in the last few weeks, he doesn't seem

:47:46.:47:50.

to be giving any indication that they are prepared to move on that

:47:51.:47:56.

basis. Are you? Our opinion was that there is already an existence in the

:47:57.:48:01.

ombudsman and the criminal cases commission whereby they have a duty

:48:02.:48:09.

to deal with Article two national security, but can make the decision

:48:10.:48:13.

in the end honours tutors on what to give to the public or not. We argue

:48:14.:48:17.

that that duty should be given to the new director. We tried to move a

:48:18.:48:25.

bit and said OK, if there's a dispute, let us put up a panel of

:48:26.:48:32.

judges who would say, OK, here's our decision, so this should -- should

:48:33.:48:38.

they release this to the family is not? We give an alternative. Do you

:48:39.:48:45.

believe James Brokenshire is a man who has the commitment that he says

:48:46.:48:49.

he has two resolve this issue and once more public phase to this

:48:50.:48:53.

process? He wants the matter resolved once and for all. If that

:48:54.:48:56.

is dealt with, then a lot of the other pieces of the jigsaw

:48:57.:49:01.

potentially fall into place. Well, that's correct it is dealt with.

:49:02.:49:08.

Martin McGuinness says he'd like to see it resolved by the first

:49:09.:49:13.

anniversary of fresh start, next month. Before that. We've gone

:49:14.:49:18.

through a number of these talks, we've so we are up for negotiation,

:49:19.:49:23.

let us get it sorted out. And yet, the British Government are not

:49:24.:49:28.

showing. If he says he's determined to do that and there's a compromise,

:49:29.:49:33.

then put it forward. Would you accept that analysis any of it? No,

:49:34.:49:39.

no I don't. We need to take a step back. What do we mean by dealing

:49:40.:49:43.

with the past, because politicians defining narrowly and truth and

:49:44.:49:46.

justice and acknowledgement. The second question is whose benefit is

:49:47.:49:51.

it for? For those most affected incident by incident, which is a

:49:52.:49:54.

fine way to do it and what we've been trying to do for decades, or do

:49:55.:49:58.

we want to deal with the past in a manner that allows society to move

:49:59.:50:02.

on? They are not parallel tracks, they will clash and there will be

:50:03.:50:07.

tension. We haven't resolved that issue. Were I to disagree with the

:50:08.:50:11.

Commissioner is this idea of nothing is agreed until everything is

:50:12.:50:15.

agreed. Because when I accept this overlap

:50:16.:50:38.

between people having poorer mental health because they've not had

:50:39.:50:42.

access to truth acknowledgement and possibly justice, I do think that we

:50:43.:50:44.

could find the political world to say we are doing the pension for the

:50:45.:50:47.

physically injured, people who can't contribute to a pension because

:50:48.:50:49.

they've been unable to work through no fault of their own for perhaps 40

:50:50.:50:52.

years, and we could tackle the most toxic legacy of the troubles which

:50:53.:50:54.

is bad mental health and well-being. Even allowing for a fact that a

:50:55.:50:57.

percentage will not find comfort without truth. Will you begin the

:50:58.:50:59.

process? What is possible is agreement on the pension, what is

:51:00.:51:01.

possible as mental health and well-being will be a big issue. In

:51:02.:51:04.

terms of truth and justice, we argue the interest should of gone with the

:51:05.:51:07.

body while it was being created and we shouldn't let them finish their

:51:08.:51:09.

work. As the Commissioner says, it got halfway and stopped. We have a

:51:10.:51:13.

hierarchy of investigations ranging from over a thousand people with

:51:14.:51:17.

access to nothing up to people who have access to public enquirers,

:51:18.:51:27.

very expensive bodies. That hierarchy of enquirers means by

:51:28.:51:29.

definition there is a hierarchy of victims, no matter what Jerry says.

:51:30.:51:36.

Do you believe the process is about to ramp up a gear of the back of

:51:37.:51:39.

James Brokenshire's meeting with Martin McGuinness and the comments

:51:40.:51:43.

about needing a public face? Do you get the sense we are inching towards

:51:44.:51:48.

something? It is a devolved matter. At the moment, the executive is

:51:49.:51:52.

trying to claim 90% of the commitments were met. It is not

:51:53.:52:00.

about percentages, it is the big-ticket issues the executive

:52:01.:52:04.

failed to deliver all. Dealing with the past, 5000 jobs... Those are

:52:05.:52:10.

separate issues, there are not what we are discussing. The deal with the

:52:11.:52:19.

past, the whole legacy and you've taken eight -- it completely from

:52:20.:52:24.

what is meant to be about ten seconds let's forget about that,

:52:25.:52:27.

here are the other issues we need to deal with. It is an inability of the

:52:28.:52:37.

British Government, not the DUP. The British Government frankly the ones

:52:38.:52:47.

who wants to have veto. It is separate, and that's the other issue

:52:48.:52:52.

here. We have a Lord Chief Justice and says he can deal with the

:52:53.:52:57.

backlog. Some of these victims have been waiting 40-45 years, which in

:52:58.:53:03.

itself is a scandal. So they've said I can clear the backlog in the next

:53:04.:53:07.

five years, I need 5 million a year to do it and the British Government

:53:08.:53:11.

are refusing to give them the resources to do that. You are

:53:12.:53:17.

refusing to agree that goes into the H I U. An important point you just

:53:18.:53:25.

danced around are not mentioned is that a draw down the money that is

:53:26.:53:30.

to be agreed between Sinn Fein and the DUP... That is part of the

:53:31.:53:33.

architecture of the situation we find ourselves in. At the moment,

:53:34.:53:41.

the DUP is not prepared to join Sinn Fein in making that request. That's

:53:42.:53:48.

right isn't it? First of all, legacy is an issue to deal with the British

:53:49.:53:52.

Government, they're responsible for it. They should supply the money.

:53:53.:54:02.

There's a there... On the other hand, if the money was to be

:54:03.:54:08.

supplied by the executive, Vic the DUP have refused to do that. So you

:54:09.:54:14.

need to address this issue with your partners in Government to persuade

:54:15.:54:17.

the DUP to join you in making our request to the governors of the Lord

:54:18.:54:25.

Chief Justice can get on. No, that's not true. You've ignored the fact

:54:26.:54:28.

that I said it is the legacy that the issue belonging to the British

:54:29.:54:32.

Government. They have ownership of it and should sort it out. The money

:54:33.:54:38.

coming from the British Government said... Why will be not deal with

:54:39.:54:45.

inquests? -- why will they not deal with inquests? That could be done if

:54:46.:54:52.

James Brokenshire said OK, let us do that. The Victims Commissioner has

:54:53.:54:58.

suggested dealing with the inquest issue could help unlock some of the

:54:59.:55:02.

wider sticking points. Do you agree with her on that point, because you

:55:03.:55:07.

said you didn't agree with her on everything? Is it possible that if

:55:08.:55:11.

the DUP and Sinn Fein was to go to the British Government and ask for

:55:12.:55:14.

the money, the Lord Chief Justice gets the money, sets the troubles

:55:15.:55:18.

related inquest in process, perhaps I may unlock broader architecture of

:55:19.:55:25.

this legacy issue? We think that is an imperfect solution. It would not

:55:26.:55:32.

necessarily work, because the issue Sinn Fein identified is we have a

:55:33.:55:37.

body people can go to an legacy inquests, as well. They can shop

:55:38.:55:46.

around. Be having a choice of how they deal with her own path, that is

:55:47.:55:55.

what we're trying to discuss. Why would you not give victims and

:55:56.:56:02.

survivors that ability? Within the basket of measures that all truth,

:56:03.:56:05.

acknowledgement and justice, we object to what we have at the moment

:56:06.:56:09.

is imbalance, incomplete and imperfect, and we're not supporting

:56:10.:56:13.

a continuation of that. We want a full solution to truth. With the

:56:14.:56:18.

greatest respect, does it matter? You another self appointed Leader of

:56:19.:56:22.

the Opposition. The DUP and Sinn Fein are in the driving seat and

:56:23.:56:25.

long with James Brokenshire they will sort it out or not. And my

:56:26.:56:33.

point is it is my job to say forget the percentages when you look at the

:56:34.:56:37.

big issues, they can't deliver on the big-ticket issues and this is

:56:38.:56:42.

one of them. In 2040 when we first sat down to talk over this, Mike

:56:43.:56:49.

Nesbitt left the talks because of a decision... The solicitor for some

:56:50.:56:57.

of those families involved in troubles related inquests have now

:56:58.:57:02.

apparently been asked to give the Government more time to try to deal

:57:03.:57:05.

with this issue to put off their pending request for a judicial

:57:06.:57:12.

review until the next Friday. Does that suggest to you as many people

:57:13.:57:16.

are reading it that it means we could be inching toward some sort of

:57:17.:57:21.

agreement? Because we now have a time frame. Next Friday. Both

:57:22.:57:26.

parties have asked for an extra fortnight, but I hope we are moving

:57:27.:57:31.

towards it. It still comes down the British Government and whether they

:57:32.:57:33.

are prepared to deal with this issue. Thank you both.

:57:34.:57:38.

And now with a look back at the political week gone

:57:39.:57:41.

The Justice Minister says she wants more wide ranging legislation to

:57:42.:57:56.

tackle domestic abuse. The legislation we see in other parts of

:57:57.:57:59.

the UK is appropriate for here and something I committed to. The Health

:58:00.:58:09.

Minister is also open to changing the law here, this time on abortion.

:58:10.:58:19.

If there is a recommendation I am up for bringing forth a legislative

:58:20.:58:26.

change. I would not rule out alliance having a future Westminster

:58:27.:58:32.

seat. In tributes to the former grand secretary of the Orange

:58:33.:58:42.

Order,. Should we commend the Secretary of State at least once

:58:43.:58:45.

again for presenting us with a full range of cosmetics about a single

:58:46.:58:47.

micro-substance? Allison, you are listening carefully

:58:48.:59:06.

to what the commissioner had to say. Any sign of progress anywhere in all

:59:07.:59:10.

of that did you think? The Victims Commissioner said it needs to be

:59:11.:59:14.

delivered as a package, but there is scope to have the inquest issue deal

:59:15.:59:23.

with immediately. These people are dying they've waited so long. The

:59:24.:59:27.

Lord Chief Justice was to get on with it, but I thought it was

:59:28.:59:32.

interesting jelly Kelly refused to condemn the DUP for not releasing

:59:33.:59:34.

the money. They can release the money tomorrow. His focus was on the

:59:35.:59:40.

British Government, and I know they are responsible for the

:59:41.:59:43.

national-security issue, but not funding the inquests. The executive

:59:44.:59:49.

could do that. Did you find that telling? We did ask the DUP to take

:59:50.:59:53.

part today, we told nobody for the party was available. It is hard to

:59:54.:00:00.

get both the DUP and Sinn Fein together on some of these issues.

:00:01.:00:05.

That is evidence of grown-up Government in some way, they don't

:00:06.:00:08.

want to be seen attacking each other in public. There is a genuine

:00:09.:00:14.

difference in policy on both sides and potentially it seems like they

:00:15.:00:18.

are running away from those issues. The DUP have been reluctant to

:00:19.:00:21.

explain their position on this and I think fundamentally there's still an

:00:22.:00:28.

overhang from how the maze issue unfolded. They are wary of coming up

:00:29.:00:31.

with solutions to victims issue which leads to sort of lightning rod

:00:32.:00:37.

for this content within the party forming. Allison, do you think they

:00:38.:00:42.

can be a piecemeal approach to this, we could pick bits off, solve them

:00:43.:00:46.

and leave the big issues resolved? Or does it have to be nothing is

:00:47.:00:50.

agreed until everything gives? I think it is unfair with people

:00:51.:00:56.

waiting for pensions while parties argue over details. Salmon?

:00:57.:01:05.

Fundamentally, there will be a solution. The architecture for the

:01:06.:01:07.

overwhelming majority of this was agreed, is just that once that

:01:08.:01:11.

happens, we need to make sure the victims are happy.

:01:12.:01:12.

Thanks both. has to be some degree of allowances

:01:13.:01:13.

Back to Andrew in London. in return for renewing vehicles.

:01:14.:01:15.

You. Why are the Lib Dems throwing

:01:16.:01:18.

everything they've got at the by-election in

:01:19.:01:27.

David Cameron's old constituency? And what will happen next in the US

:01:28.:01:29.

presidential election? So this cross-party push to make the

:01:30.:01:55.

government come forward with the outlines of this negotiating

:01:56.:01:59.

strategy for Brexit, and put it to the Commons in particular, has that

:02:00.:02:03.

got traction? It has in that it is attracting a wide range of support

:02:04.:02:07.

in the House of Commons, which is now the crucial forum for these

:02:08.:02:13.

debates. Theresa May has said there will not be a vote before she

:02:14.:02:20.

triggers article 50. So we have two assume there will not be a vote.

:02:21.:02:24.

With this whole debate, there is a myth going about that we don't know

:02:25.:02:28.

much about what Brexit means. We know a heck of a lot about what it

:02:29.:02:33.

means. We know that when she opens her mouth, the pound falls. The

:02:34.:02:39.

pound is in a different position to the other Brexiteers. There is an

:02:40.:02:43.

accountability issue in terms of what the House of Commons will have

:02:44.:02:48.

a say in, and that could become a big story. Nicola Sturgeon has

:02:49.:02:53.

supported a second referendum. We know a huge amount, all of it dire,

:02:54.:02:58.

and I hope that MPs do get votes at some point. I suspect they will. For

:02:59.:03:08.

example, we are going to get one on this so-called repeal act, which is

:03:09.:03:11.

an act of consolidation. There will be others. We cannot leave the

:03:12.:03:15.

European Union without votes, but I don't think we will get one on

:03:16.:03:20.

Article 50. What they seem to be pushing for at the moment is a vote

:03:21.:03:24.

on the government's bargaining position. They are not saying they

:03:25.:03:30.

want all the details, although Labour has asked 70 questions. The

:03:31.:03:39.

Commons needs to improve them, it is said. Is that fair? It is absurd.

:03:40.:03:46.

You don't go into negotiating with Brussels talking about what was

:03:47.:03:50.

published in all the national newspapers last week about what our

:03:51.:03:56.

red lines are. I don't remember any other international trade deal being

:03:57.:04:01.

done in the public eye. Theresa May hasn't said a red line on

:04:02.:04:05.

immigration. She has uttered those words. There are lots of other

:04:06.:04:11.

intricate details. Of course they are, but we broadly know her

:04:12.:04:15.

position. And broadly we know the EU position. Broad knowledge is not the

:04:16.:04:23.

same as specific. The point is that the British Parliament, all these

:04:24.:04:26.

people who are so obsessed with the British Parliament having its say

:04:27.:04:31.

and democracy, they didn't care for very many years when they happily

:04:32.:04:35.

handed over powers. The Lisbon Treaty, which is like a new

:04:36.:04:41.

constitution. It handed over far more powers again and again. And

:04:42.:04:46.

there was an express vote not to have a referendum for the British

:04:47.:04:50.

people. But we have now given our say. Putting aside whether you are

:04:51.:04:55.

for or against, is it realistic that the government will come forward

:04:56.:04:59.

with some kind of green paper all white paper that gives a broad

:05:00.:05:04.

outline of the government's Brexit position? When you have the majority

:05:05.:05:11.

of between ten and 20, there is one thing you have to do as Prime

:05:12.:05:15.

Minister, and that is to learn to count. Theresa May hasn't done that.

:05:16.:05:21.

There will be a vote in the House of Commons. Whether it's binding or

:05:22.:05:25.

not, because MPs will make one. What will vote be on? They will demand

:05:26.:05:32.

that the government spelt out its Brexit strategy. It will not be

:05:33.:05:37.

binding, unless they tried to shoehorn something onto government

:05:38.:05:40.

legislation, which I don't think they will do. They will be unsure.

:05:41.:05:45.

The will of the House of Commons will express itself simply because

:05:46.:05:50.

there is a majority in the House of Commons, a clear one, for soft

:05:51.:05:55.

Brexit. There will be a vote, the government will lose it, and then it

:05:56.:06:00.

is up to Theresa May whether to pay any attention to it. But she has got

:06:01.:06:04.

herself into this problem because she has adopted the views of the 52

:06:05.:06:10.

against the 48, dropping any sort of language about consensus and

:06:11.:06:16.

bringing the country back together. If the Commons votes against the

:06:17.:06:20.

government on this, it will be seen as a major setback for the

:06:21.:06:25.

government and the Prime Minister. Yes, seismic. Of course she can

:06:26.:06:29.

ignore it if you are talking about it in relation to triggering Article

:06:30.:06:35.

50. In a way, it happened with Maastricht as well. The House of

:06:36.:06:39.

Commons will move centrestage, and that context is that tiny majority.

:06:40.:06:45.

She has a smaller majority than John Major had in the 90s, and it's going

:06:46.:06:51.

to be far more turbulent than perhaps her calm, assured a facade

:06:52.:06:58.

suggests. Theresa May is a serious, fully formed politician, with six

:06:59.:07:02.

years in the Home Office, but she has never had experience of the

:07:03.:07:07.

Treasury or the Foreign Office. This is massive, massive politics, and I

:07:08.:07:11.

don't think she's ready for it. I don't blame her for that. If it

:07:12.:07:17.

comes to a conflict between the result of the referendum and the

:07:18.:07:22.

position Parliament has taken, there is a chance she will call another

:07:23.:07:27.

election? Effectively, it will be a vote of no-confidence in her

:07:28.:07:31.

government. She should call another election. I think the British people

:07:32.:07:37.

be very clear. The remainers I know have all completely accept it that

:07:38.:07:41.

we are going to have this. There is a mandate for leaves and the Prime

:07:42.:07:45.

Minister should get on with it. I think the British people will not

:07:46.:07:49.

take kindly to any MP who gets in the way. We have two by-elections

:07:50.:07:57.

this week. One in Whitley and one in Batley and Spen, the seat held by Jo

:07:58.:08:02.

Cox. The main parties are not competing in that because of the

:08:03.:08:09.

appalling circumstances in which her terrible murder took place. The Lib

:08:10.:08:14.

Dems are coming big in Witney. They came fourth in the general election,

:08:15.:08:18.

rather forepaws, that they are bigging themselves up in this one.

:08:19.:08:24.

That wise? They've got to do something to get themselves

:08:25.:08:31.

attention. They need to get noticed. But what they have in their favour

:08:32.:08:37.

is that the constituency Witney voted 53% remain and 47% leave in

:08:38.:08:42.

the EU referendum. So they will be trying to get the remain a vote.

:08:43.:08:48.

This is the first test of their remain a strategy. It is interesting

:08:49.:08:51.

that Theresa May bothered to come out and campaign on Saturdays. There

:08:52.:09:02.

she is. The Prime Minister and the former Prime Minister out

:09:03.:09:06.

campaigning. They are not going to win, that they would have to come

:09:07.:09:13.

second. David Cameron had a 60% vote there, for goodness sake. The Tory

:09:14.:09:19.

candidate was a Leave campaign. The fact she is out campaigning isn't a

:09:20.:09:23.

sign of lack of confidence. She must be confident they will win,

:09:24.:09:30.

otherwise she wouldn't be seen near the place. OK, the American

:09:31.:09:34.

election. Just when you thought it couldn't get crazier. We are

:09:35.:09:39.

familiar with drug tests for athletes and cyclists, and all sorts

:09:40.:09:43.

of things in sport. But Mr Trump has now called for a drug test before

:09:44.:09:48.

the third and final debate coming up this Wednesday. Am I making it up?

:09:49.:09:50.

No, I'm not. I think we should take a drug test

:09:51.:09:53.

prior to the debate. We should take a drug test prior,

:09:54.:09:56.

because I don't know what's going on with her,

:09:57.:10:01.

but at the beginning of her last debate she was all pumped

:10:02.:10:05.

up at the beginning, and at the end it was like,

:10:06.:10:11.

uuh, take me down. So I think we should

:10:12.:10:14.

take a drug test. He's also talking about the election

:10:15.:10:32.

being rigged as well, which may be ground work for making his excuses.

:10:33.:10:37.

But here's the issue. That was yesterday. With everything that went

:10:38.:10:44.

before, overnight, the latest Washington post-ABC News poll. Mrs

:10:45.:10:48.

Clinton is ahead by only four points. It's almost within the

:10:49.:10:53.

margin of error. Down from about ten points after sexual assault gate.

:10:54.:11:02.

The simple reason why Trump got the Republican nomination, beating 50 or

:11:03.:11:06.

60 Republican moderates, why he's been doing pretty well in the polls

:11:07.:11:11.

until the last two of weeks, people buy into the anti-establishment

:11:12.:11:15.

thing. All you need to do is stand there and say, of course they would

:11:16.:11:19.

say that, because they are all crooked. That is the single biggest

:11:20.:11:26.

thing he's got going for him. The Washington Post - ABC News poll

:11:27.:11:31.

suggests the whole business of the nude tapes actually haven't made

:11:32.:11:33.

that much difference. -- huge tape. -- lewd tape. Once you position

:11:34.:11:54.

yourself, you can almost say anything you like, and then respond

:11:55.:11:59.

by saying, the elite would say that, wouldn't they? You cannot really

:12:00.:12:03.

deal with that as an argument, because you would just say, oh,

:12:04.:12:09.

that's you lot, you would say that. There is a point where it becomes

:12:10.:12:14.

absurd, though, and I think this current thing on doping tests is

:12:15.:12:20.

laugh out loud stuff. That surely can't help him. You cannot think,

:12:21.:12:25.

what are the undecideds thinking about this? There was a lot of

:12:26.:12:32.

information, not in the century, but some information is more e-mails

:12:33.:12:41.

from Mrs Clinton are leaked. They are showing her to be very much a

:12:42.:12:43.

globalisation person, very close to Wall Street, talking about why... As

:12:44.:12:54.

Donald Trump said last week, it was good to have the shackles off. This

:12:55.:13:01.

is him with the shackles off. The reality is, all the stuff about

:13:02.:13:07.

Hillary not being very likeable and dishonest, that is already factored

:13:08.:13:11.

into the polls. All the stuff about Donald Trump being lecherous and

:13:12.:13:15.

racist is already factored in. What still blows my mind is that people

:13:16.:13:20.

are still undecided! He's given Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio. It

:13:21.:13:25.

is going to be very interesting to see.

:13:26.:13:27.

Jo Coburn has more Daily Politics tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.

:13:28.:13:31.

I'll be back next Sunday at 11am here on BBC One.

:13:32.:13:34.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:35.:13:39.

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers are joined by secretary of state for Scotland David Mundell MP and Conservative MPs Adam Afriyie and Kwasi Kwarteng. Panellists include Julia Hartley-Brewer, Tom Newton Dunn and Steve Richards.


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