19/11/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


19/11/2017

Sarah Smith and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Transcript


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Morning everyone, and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

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I'm Sarah Smith.

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And this is your guide

to all the big stories that

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are shaping politics this weekend,

and a few of the smaller ones too.

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Philip Hammond is getting ready

to deliver his latest Budget

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on Wednesday and he's not short

of advice - to spend more,

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show restraint, even

to stop being an Eyore -

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but can he change the direction

of the country and his government?

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Conservative Party darling

Jacob Rees-Mogg has

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some advice of his own.

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He thinks the Chancellor

is being far too gloomy about Brexit

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- he joins me live to explain why.

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The former Leave campaign leader,

Gisela Stuart, will be here debating

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with pro-EU campaigner

Alastair Campbell, after taking

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a trip to her native Germany

to speak to businesses

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about Brexit.

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And, as we wait to find out what's

on the menu for this week's budget,

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we're in a diner off

the A1 in Peterborough,

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finding out who people most trust

with the economy -

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Philip Hammond or John McDonnell?

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And coming up here:

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As Gerry Adams signals his

intention to stand down

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as Sinn Fein President,

I'll be talking live

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to Michelle O'Neill about his

legacy and who she thinks

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should succeed him.

Join me in half an hour.

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All that coming up in the programme.

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And with me for for all of it,

three journalists who've promised

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not to show off like Michael Gove

by using any long economicky words -

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although I'm not sure they really

know that many anyway -

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it's Tom Newton Dunn,

Gaby Hinsliff and Iain Martin.

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Let's take a look at the big

political stories making the news

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this Sunday morning,

and as you might expect there's

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plenty of speculation

about what might or not might be

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in Philip Hammond's Budget.

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The Chancellor is promising a big

investment in new technology,

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including driverless cars -

which could be on the road by 2021.

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He's been interviewed

in the Sunday Times,

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where he talks about plans to reach

the target of building

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300,000 homes every year,

or the equivalent of a city

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the size of Leeds.

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That paper speculates that he's

attempting to turn from "fiscal

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Phil" into "hopeful Hammond"

as he tries to set out

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a vision for the country,

not just a list of numbers.

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The Sunday Telegraph thinks that

Mr Hammond is planning to offer

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a pay rise to nurses as part

of a bid to take on Labour.

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But that hasn't impressed

Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell.

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He's spoken to a number of papers

and is calling for an emergency

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budget to invest in public services

and help struggling households.

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So that's a taste of what you might

hear on Wednesday and Mr Hammond

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and Mr McDonnell have both been

appearing this morning

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on the Andrew Marr Show.

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I think Britain has a very

bright future ahead of it,

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and we have to embrace

the opportunities that

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a post-Brexit world will offer.

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They will be opportunities that

are based on huge change,

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huge technological evolution.

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It's not always going to be easy,

but the British people have shown

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time and time again that we're up

for these challenges.

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For many people out there,

this is a depression.

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We've had people whose wages

have been cut by 10%.

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Nurses, for example.

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We've had people who are now...

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1.25 million food parcels handed out

in the sixth richest

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country in the world.

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That's what I call a recession

for large numbers of people.

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We will be talking about Labour and

their economic policies in a moment,

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but let's start with what we might

expect from the budget. We will talk

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to our panel of political observers.

Philip Hammond is under pressure to

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set out a bold vision and reset the

government's programme. Can we

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expect that?

No, we can't. We have

heard enough from the Chancellor

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across various broadcast and his

article in the Sunday Times. I think

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we will not be getting a bold

budget. His precise words short... A

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short time ago were a balanced

budget. Some Tory hearts will think.

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They desperately want something to

go out and shout about, something to

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capture people's imagination, and do

big and bold things, like how on

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earth are they going to build those

new 300,000 houses a year? There are

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good reasons why he has chosen what

appears to be a pretty staid,

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Conservative budget, and that is

that they are probably unable to get

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anything bold through Parliament.

His capital is so low among Tory

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MPs. If you have a minority

government, it is tricky.

We have

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seen ministers on programmes like

this in the last few weeks putting

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in the bids for what they would like

spending on, whether it be payment

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for nurses or parliament. Would he

struggled to get something radical

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through the Commons?

Big ideas cost

money. That's the problem. Bold

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ideas are controversial. In some

ways, Tory MPs are asking their

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Chancellor to do the impossible.

Government is already doing

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something big and bold, which is

Brexit. That has implications for

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how much money is available, how

many risks you want to take with

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everything else. What is crucial is

that he demonstrates a reputation

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for competence. The reputation that

the Conservative government has for

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economic competence, that many

people prefer them to Labour on the

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issue of economic competence. The

worst thing he could do is come up

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with a big, bold idea that

unravelled quickly. What they

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absolutely don't want is to come up

with an exciting idea that falls

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apart three days after the budget.

He is under pressure from

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Brexiteers, who are suspicious of

him. Does he have to offer them

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something?

Part of his problem is he

has to offer so many different

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people different things. This is

Philip Hammond trying to be and

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dynamic.

It is hard to tell

sometimes.

At least in theoretical

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terms. His longer-term difficulty is

that, if you look at the economic

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cycle, we are getting to a point

where we are probably overdue, if

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you put Brexit to one side, overdue

some kind of correction or downturn,

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if you look what has happened to

asset prices globally. What will be

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worrying for the Treasury is, just

as everyone is saying we should turn

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on the taps and build this or that,

we might be at the top of a cycle,

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and the Treasury will want to lose

something in the armoury in terms of

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probably growing the deficit if

there are economic difficulties in

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the next two years, and then there

is Brexit as well.

It sounds

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impossible.

I think so. Talking to

his friends and colleagues over the

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last few days, he had to make a

call, which was precisely how much

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can I get away with, with my

political capital being as low as it

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is, with the mixed problems he had

at the last budget, and a lot of the

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party disliking his approach to

Brexit. He is damned if he is,

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damned if he doesn't. Universal

Credit, we are expecting a reduction

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in the time it takes to wait,

business rates, affected by high

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inflation... I think we will see a

problem fixing budget which will

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probably do quite a lot of important

spadework in many areas.

We will

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pick up on some of this later in the

programme.

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Let's speak now to the Conservative

MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, this week

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he helpfully launched an alternative

"budget for Brexit" and advised

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the Chancellor to be less gloomy

about the consequences

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of leaving the EU.

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Thank you for joining us. Your

alternative budget is pretty

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radical. Almost half corporation

tax, Cap Stamp duty to help the

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London market. It seems you are

advocating the opposite from what we

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will hear from your Chancellor on

Wednesday.

There are two parts to

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the proposals I suggested. One is

that we should show that after we

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have left the European Union, the UK

is open to the rest of the world. It

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is about opening up to the rest of

the world. Secondly, looking at the

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modelling that has been done by the

Treasury and some other forecasters,

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which has been so comprehensively

wrong. The forecasts made about what

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would happen after Brexit have

turned out to be hopelessly false.

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The team at Cardiff University have

done some modelling based on the

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classical economic principles and

what happens if you move to free

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trade that would be very positive

for the economy.

You are predicting

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a Brexit dividend of £135 billion,

which sounds fantastic. Why are you

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right, and everybody else, including

the Bank of England and the

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Institute for Fiscal Studies, why

are they all wrong?

It depends on

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the type of modelling. The modelling

that have been done by the Treasury

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have been based on gravity models,

which work on the basis of the

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nearness of the market and the size

of the economy you are trading with.

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These have been wrong in the past.

They predicted that if we joined the

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euro, trade would grow by 300%. That

was then revised down to 200%, but

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it is fantasyland. The model I am

working on, by Sir Patrick Minford,

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who has a record of getting these

things right. He was right about the

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exchange rate mechanism, right about

the euro.

Being right in the past

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doesn't mean you are right about the

future. Why do you think the

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Treasury will not pick up the same

numbers, if this is so obvious to

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you?

I think the Treasury was

humiliated by the errors in its

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forecast prior to Brexit, and is

trying to defend its position. The

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short-term economic consequences of

a vote to leave was one of the most

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dishonest documents to come out of

the Treasury, purely a piece of

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political propaganda. They are

wounded by that and sticking to the

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same script, rather than looking at

other forecasts and other experts.

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You think the governor of the Bank

of England is an enemy of Brexit,

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and it sounds like you think the

Treasury is opposed to it. As the

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Chancellor fallen under their spell

as well, and been persuaded to be an

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enemy of Brexit?

I have admiration

the Chancellor, but George Osborne,

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his predecessor, was the architect

of Project Fear. He was too close to

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the Bank of England and lost his

independence. That is what needs to

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change. It is an opportunity in the

budget for Philip Hammond to show he

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is putting aside the Treasury's

mistakes in the past. It is very

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encouraging what he is saying this

morning, about a more positive

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approach to Brexit.

Lord Lawson has

accused Philip Hammond of being very

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close to sabotage on Brexit. He says

we need a can-do man at the Treasury

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and not a prophet of doom.

I think

that Philip Hammond is an

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exceptionally intelligent man, a

very thoughtful man. It is not a bad

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thing to have a Chancellor who is

serious minded and steady, rather

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than one who is a showman and uses

the Exchequer to interfere in

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absolutely everything.

I have a lot

of confidence in the Chancellor.

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When you launched your budget for

Brexit, you said the government has

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to deliver the £350 million for the

NHS that was delivered during the

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referendum, even though you didn't

think that promise should have been

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made. Is that something they now

need to deliver wrong?

It is. This

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only happens once we have left.

Politicians have to recognise that

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voters don't look at the small print

of electoral policies. If you put

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£350 million on the side of a bus

and say it may be available for the

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NHS, it is reasonable for people to

think that is a promise. Brexit was

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won by the Leave campaign, so it it

is important that they deliver on

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that promise. Politicians must keep

faith with voters and deliver on

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implied promises, as well as ones

that are set out in detail.

The

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Cabinet will move on to talk about

the Brexit bill this week, and we

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understand they may need to come up

with more money to satisfy EU

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demands. The more money spent on

that is less money available for

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things like spending on the NHS. Are

you worried about the size of the

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exit bill?

You have your finger on

the important point. The government

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will have to choose whether to give

lots of money to the European Union,

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or whether to spend money on UK

public services, and that will be

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part of the negotiation. On all

these issues, it comes down to

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choice is the government makes. I

would encourage the government to

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choose our own domestic public

services rather than expensive

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schemes in continent or Europe.

Why

are you advocating that the

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government should spend up to £2.5

billion on a no deal scenario?

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It is important that we are ready to

leave in the event of no deal. If we

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left with no deal we would on

current figures still be saving the

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remains of 18 billion so we would be

saving 15 and a half billion against

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paying for the financial framework.

To show we're ready on day one would

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be money well spent and most would

be needed any way. We need to have

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new customs arrangements in place

even if it is not for a no deal

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situation.

There are suggestions

that the Government might back down

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on the idea of putting the time and

date of leaving the EU on the face

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of the bill. Would you be Exxon

certained if that was -- concerned

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if that was remove prd the bill?

It

is in Article 50, unless Article 50

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is extended by the Council of Europe

we leave on 20th March 2019 and it

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makes accepts that should be the

same in -- sense that should be in

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same in domestic law. But that is a

secondary concern from my point of

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view. It is important that we leave

on that date.

Stay there if you

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would.

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We're joined in the studio

by the former minister

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Stephen Hammond.

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He's no relation to the Chancellor,

but he is a member

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of the Treasury Select Committee

and he's one of the Tory MPs named

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as "Brexit mutineers"

by the Daily Telegraph

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this week - lucky him.

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I'm assured you're no relation to

the Chancellor. Let's just pick up

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on what Jacob Rees Mogg was saying.

How important is it to you as a

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rebel that the Government does put

the date on.

I agree with Jacob it

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is in the Article 50 process, the

key reason it is important is the

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negotiations look like they're going

to be tricky and longer than we

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expected and it may well be that we

are still negotiating up until March

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2019. We could have a short couple

of weeks period of extension. Why do

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harm to the economy by falling out

on a precise time? If those

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negotiations need to be extended.

They won't go on for more than a

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couple of weeks, because there will

be elections in Europe in June 2019

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and there is no chance of a new

commission or Parliament dealing

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with this. Giving it flexibility and

with this flexibility the government

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said it wants flexibility in

negotiations, why give all the

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advantage to the other side? Part of

that was evidenced yesterday by

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somebody suggesting they will ask

for the Margaret Thatcher rebate to

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be suspended. That is as a result of

putting the date on the bill.

You

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did not agree with the Brexit

committee and think it is important

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that we set the date and time?

I

think it is perfectly reasonable to

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set the date and time and I think

these negotiations fill the time

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available. The United States and

Australia agreed a free trade deal

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between April 2003 and February

2004. These things don't need to be

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interm Knabl if both sides want to

agree. I think the British

0:17:520:17:56

electorate would be very concerned

if nearly three years after the vote

0:17:560:18:01

to leave, we still hadn't left. I

think most people expected that we

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would have left by now. The

negotiations realistically to get

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through the approval of the European

Parliament and so on need to be

0:18:090:18:13

completed by at the end of next

year, going up to the last minute I

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don't think is real is tick.

To move

on to talk about a trade deal and

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getting that done, the EU need to

agree to move on and we need to

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settle the divorce, cabinet are

going to be talking about the amount

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that needs to be spent on that,

Stephen what manned, are you happy

0:18:310:18:38

for the Government to offer more?

I

hope that the Government will stick

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to the Florence speech in terms of

ensuring that we fulfil our

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liabilities and obligations. I'm not

clear exactly whether that is 20

0:18:470:18:52

billion or 40 billion and I'm not

sure the government is. If part of

0:18:520:18:55

the divorce bill is then some

settlement for getting the trade

0:18:550:19:00

deal, we will need to examine that

carefully.

Jacob Rees Mogg, is this

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that might spark another war in the

party if the cabinet suggest they're

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prepared to pay more?

I think we

need to go back to what you said,

0:19:110:19:17

that the - the EU said they want us

to settle the money first. The

0:19:170:19:27

Government doesn't need to follow

that. They need our money. If we

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don't pay any money for the final 21

months of the framework, the EU has

0:19:300:19:38

about 20 billion pounds gap in its

finances and it has no legal

0:19:380:19:44

requirement to borrow. So it

insolvents or the Germans and the

0:19:440:19:48

others pay more. So our position on

money is very strong and we

0:19:480:19:52

shouldn't fall into the trap of

thinking just because Mr Barnier

0:19:520:19:57

said it it is as if he has received

tablets of stone like Moses, he has

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not.

There is a sense that the

Government feels a mo generous offer

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would set a good tone, the kind of

approach that Jacob Rees Mogg

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suggests would not make for smooth

relations.

It probably wouldn't. But

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we have to be clear what we are

paying for and what we are getting.

0:20:200:20:25

No one is suggesting we should hand

over money without proper scrutiny.

0:20:250:20:30

It may be appropriate to put money

to facilitate international trade to

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secure jobs. We have to be careful

about the analysis about what the

0:20:360:20:40

scale and size of Brexit dividend is

and the size of payments will be.

0:20:400:20:46

You mustn't confuse gross and net

and there is disagreement about some

0:20:460:20:52

of the numbers.

On that, Jacob Rees

Mogg in his budget for Brexit

0:20:520:20:58

suggests in five years time we would

have a 135 billion Brexit bonus. Do

0:20:580:21:04

you think it is real is tick.

He is

using some analysis that has some

0:21:040:21:11

flaws. It is predicting a price drop

in the United Kingdom of 10%. Tariff

0:21:110:21:18

drops will only be 3 or 4%. It is

predicting huge productivity gains,

0:21:180:21:24

the likes of which we have not seen

in 20 years. Thirdly, despite his

0:21:240:21:29

view on modellers there is evidence

that they weren't and if you go into

0:21:290:21:35

the detail of the analysis, some of

the data is 14 years out of date.

0:21:350:21:42

Jacob Rees Mogg, you're being

hopelessly optimistic?

I don't think

0:21:420:21:47

that right. I think the fall in

prices comes because you make the

0:21:470:21:52

economy more competitive and you

take away tariffs which reduces the

0:21:520:21:56

price of food by 20%. That is a big

reduction. Bear in mind that the

0:21:560:22:02

biggest tariffs hit food, clothing

and foot wear that, harm the poorest

0:22:020:22:06

in society the most. The gains from

productivity come from is in

0:22:060:22:13

additional tariffs. Leading to other

saving and further investment I

0:22:130:22:21

think the modelling done by the

professor is as good as modelling

0:22:210:22:25

can be. That doesn't mean it is

infallible. The failure of gravity

0:22:250:22:31

model is well known.

Michael Gove

was accused of auditioning for the

0:22:310:22:38

job of Chancellor by using long

words. Do you know any good long

0:22:380:22:45

economic words?

I don't think that

we want to get into this type of

0:22:450:22:49

business actually. I think all

Conservatives and Steven and I very

0:22:490:22:53

much agree on this, want to show as

united a front as we can manage.

0:22:530:22:58

There are differences on some

aspects of policy, but in terms of

0:22:580:23:02

individuals we want to stand

together and support the best

0:23:020:23:05

interests of the government.

Thank

you.

0:23:050:23:11

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Berlin this week trying

0:23:110:23:13

to win the support of business

leaders there for a comprehensive

0:23:130:23:15

free trade deal with the EU.

0:23:150:23:17

He warned them against putting

'politics above prosperity'

0:23:170:23:20

and reportedly got a bit

of a frosty reception.

0:23:200:23:25

Well, the former Labour MP

Gisela Stuart was one of the leaders

0:23:250:23:27

of the Vote Leave referendum

campaign.

0:23:270:23:29

We travelled with Gisela to Germany

to meet the business leaders

0:23:290:23:32

she says will help secure a good

trade deal for the UK.

0:23:320:23:35

Here's her film.

0:23:350:23:38

I was born and brought up

in this part of Germany,

0:23:450:23:48

and although I've lived in the UK

for the past 40 years,

0:23:480:23:51

and represented the constituency

of Birmingham and Edgbaston for 20

0:23:510:23:55

years, my family still live here,

and I've kept many links.

0:23:550:24:00

I was chair of Vote Leave,

and together with only a handful

0:24:030:24:06

of other Labour MPs,

we campaigned to leave

0:24:060:24:08

the European Union because we

thought the country would be

0:24:080:24:11

better off outside.

0:24:110:24:13

It's hard to remember now, but back

in the 1970s, when we joined

0:24:130:24:16

the European Economic Community,

people thought that by joining

0:24:160:24:20

the club we would see the kind

of economic miracle Germany

0:24:200:24:24

experienced in the '70s back home.

0:24:240:24:27

The "Deutsche Wirtschaftswunder"

would come to Britain.

0:24:270:24:29

But, of course, it didn't.

0:24:290:24:34

Within a few short years

of the devastation of World War II,

0:24:360:24:39

Germany had emerged as

the largest economy in Europe.

0:24:390:24:42

Germany's extraordinary

success is down to

0:24:420:24:43

the pragmatism of its business.

0:24:430:24:48

German Mittelstand is family

dominated, forward-thinking,

0:24:480:24:53

long-term thinking, reliability,

are very important values.

0:24:530:24:59

Changing moods on a political

landscape and changing frameworks

0:24:590:25:01

are toxic for our way of doing

business, and we want

0:25:010:25:04

that to go away.

0:25:040:25:11

German business is not given

to making big political statements

0:25:110:25:16

out of step with government policy,

but talk to those in decision-making

0:25:160:25:19

positions, and it is clear

that they want to secure a good deal

0:25:190:25:22

with the United Kingdom.

0:25:220:25:25

BMW employs almost 90,000

people here in Germany,

0:25:250:25:28

and exports just under

1 million cars annually.

0:25:280:25:32

The UK is a vital market.

0:25:320:25:37

What we are really seeking right now

is more clarity, more certainty,

0:25:370:25:41

because in our cycle of investment,

cycle of development,

0:25:410:25:45

it's about a seven-year or so period

that we look at,

0:25:450:25:50

but we are now, of course, starting

to think about what comes next,

0:25:500:25:53

and what we need to see now

is what is going to be

0:25:530:25:57

the trading relationship,

how are the logistics going to look,

0:25:570:26:00

what is going to be

the requirements for people

0:26:000:26:02

moving across the continent?

0:26:020:26:04

Because all of these things

are important to us today.

0:26:040:26:07

And, by the way, they will be just

as important tomorrow.

0:26:070:26:10

Berlin is well aware that

if the European Commission

0:26:100:26:13

is allowed to put up trade barriers

against Britain, it will be

0:26:130:26:17

German business, German consumers

and German employees

0:26:170:26:19

who will suffer.

0:26:190:26:23

TRANSLATION:

I think it's very

important that we complete

0:26:230:26:25

the first phase successfully.

0:26:250:26:27

The first phase of the negotiations,

which looks at the financial

0:26:270:26:31

consequences of Great Britain

leaving the EU.

0:26:310:26:33

And then it's not a question

of punishment payments.

0:26:330:26:37

It's about when you are part

of a multilayer, contractual

0:26:370:26:39

obligation and you want to leave

that, then of course it takes

0:26:390:26:43

a whole lot of obligations

which you have to deal with,

0:26:430:26:46

so both sides are satisfied and can

live with the consequences.

0:26:460:26:55

It isn't everyone's interests

for the UK to part on good terms.

0:26:550:26:59

Of course there was going to be

upset when the UK voted to leave,

0:26:590:27:03

but creating uncertainty over

the terms of UK's exit will simply

0:27:030:27:06

have a disruptive effect

on exports to UK markets.

0:27:060:27:11

Far better to have a sensible,

amicable negotiation that results

0:27:110:27:15

both sides being able to trade

together and work

0:27:150:27:17

together post-Brexit.

0:27:170:27:24

Markus Krall is managing

director of Goetzpartners,

0:27:240:27:26

and heads the Financial

Institution Industry Group.

0:27:260:27:27

Is it true to say that,

if we negotiate Brexit well,

0:27:270:27:33

then a good Brexit can actually

strengthen the United Kingdom,

0:27:330:27:35

the European Union and Germany?

0:27:350:27:36

It's absolutely true.

0:27:360:27:38

I think that this

is about two things.

0:27:380:27:41

One, about proving that

free trade is possible

0:27:410:27:46

between a European Union that is

smaller and a former member country.

0:27:460:27:50

If you don't prove that free

trade is possible there,

0:27:500:27:53

then the question becomes,

what is Europe standing for?

0:27:530:27:57

Number two is, I also

believe the free trade,

0:27:570:28:02

free market and democratic and less

bureaucratic approach that Britain

0:28:020:28:06

has chosen as the path

into the future is a role

0:28:060:28:08

model for Europe.

0:28:080:28:11

The time has come both

for the United Kingdom

0:28:110:28:14

and for the EU to be more clear

about what kind of

0:28:140:28:17

deal we can achieve.

0:28:170:28:19

Both sides need to be bold.

0:28:190:28:21

As long as we remain open to free

trade and sensible co-operation,

0:28:210:28:25

we can arrive at something that

will benefit both sides.

0:28:250:28:30

But one thing's obvious -

if we are an open and free trading

0:28:300:28:34

economy, we've got one big

cheerleader on our side,

0:28:340:28:36

and that is German business.

0:28:360:28:42

That was Gisela Stuart

setting out her case

0:28:420:28:44

and we'll be hearing

from the opposite side

0:28:440:28:46

of the argument in the coming weeks.

0:28:460:28:47

Gisela Stuart joins us in the studio

now, as does Alastair Campbell.

0:28:470:28:50

He used to work for Tony Blair

in Number 10, set up

0:28:500:28:53

the New European Newspaper

to campaign against Brexit,

0:28:530:28:55

and is so pro-European that at this

year's Labour conference

0:28:550:28:57

he was heard playing Ode

to Joy on the bagpipes.

0:28:570:29:00

Welcome both of you.

0:29:000:29:05

We will start with your point in the

film, that you think the German

0:29:050:29:09

business once the EU to offer the UK

a generous deal because it is in

0:29:090:29:14

their interests, yet the president

of the German equivalent of the CBI

0:29:140:29:18

said that defending the single

market must be the priority for the

0:29:180:29:24

EU, and another says that the

cohesion of the remaining member

0:29:240:29:29

states remains the highest priority.

The president of the CBI just after

0:29:290:29:36

the referendum said that it would be

in nobody 's interest to introduce

0:29:360:29:41

tariffs and trade barriers. On the

UK side, I don't think there's a

0:29:410:29:49

full understanding that economic

interests are incredibly important,

0:29:490:29:52

that they are trying to cover

economic interests on the cohesion

0:29:520:30:00

of the 27. I think different

economic interests will raise the

0:30:000:30:03

head of different countries. The

German auto industry is as important

0:30:030:30:11

as the financial sector is here. The

banking crisis is far from over, but

0:30:110:30:17

the big riffs which were going on is

that the E U is losing its second

0:30:170:30:23

biggest net contributor. Countries

like Germany want a deal with the UK

0:30:230:30:28

that is a free open market. There

are other tensions in the EU that

0:30:280:30:34

wants to become more protectionist,

and that is a bad thing.

Looking at

0:30:340:30:38

the film there with the Jacob

Rees-Mogg interview. No matter what

0:30:380:30:46

side of leave you are, it is

delusional and all driven by wishful

0:30:460:30:51

thinking. You could find a

businessman who says Brexit will be

0:30:510:30:56

good for Germany. The vast bulk of

British businesses think this is a

0:30:560:31:00

disaster, as do the vast bulk of

European businesses. One of the

0:31:000:31:04

delusions on which they ran their

campaign is the idea that they need

0:31:040:31:09

us more than we need them. That is

not true.

Be you self about £80

0:31:090:31:16

billion more in goods and services

into the UK than we do to them, and

0:31:160:31:20

Germany has one of the biggest

deficits. It is in their interest.

0:31:200:31:25

Of course it is, but it is a myth

that they need us more than we need

0:31:250:31:30

them. The damage that will be done

to us, even with a good deal. Let's

0:31:300:31:37

be frank, where these negotiations

are, Theresa May is either going to

0:31:370:31:43

end up with a bad deal and dumber or

no Deal. A bad deal is bad, and a no

0:31:430:31:49

deal is a catastrophe.

You are

setting up ideas that which were not

0:31:490:31:56

there to begin with and knocking

them down. Delusional.

35 billion,

0:31:560:32:03

the Brexit bonus.

If we had a

referendum, it was a democratic

0:32:030:32:08

decision. I know you don't like it

and that a lot of business would

0:32:080:32:12

have preferred to stay with the

status quo. We have had the

0:32:120:32:17

referendum. Undermining political

institutions is in no one's

0:32:170:32:22

interests. It is functioning

democracies which lead to economic

0:32:220:32:28

stability.

Theresa May fought an

election Inc on a hard Brexit that

0:32:280:32:34

was rejected.

As we heard from BMW,

there is uncertainty for business.

0:32:340:32:48

There will be elections, European

elections, in 2019. There will be a

0:32:480:32:53

change of the Commission and the

parliament. We have a narrow window

0:32:530:32:57

to implement the mandate for the

referendum which Parliament voted

0:32:570:33:01

for. So rather than you undermining

this country, why don't you work

0:33:010:33:08

together to get the best deal?

Because we totally disagree.

You

0:33:080:33:13

don't want a good deal?

I'm in

favour of a good deal, and I could

0:33:130:33:19

give them some advice as to how they

get a good deal. First, you have a

0:33:190:33:24

cabinet that has an agreed strategy.

18 months in, they don't have that.

0:33:240:33:30

I am not undermining a deal. I am

continuing to pose questions about

0:33:300:33:36

what they are trying to do and how

they are trying to do it. This is

0:33:360:33:42

democracy. Democracy is the ability

for Parliament, which is not doing

0:33:420:33:47

its job properly, and the public, to

keep scrutinising, and if they want

0:33:470:33:51

to change their mind, having the

right to do that.

You were trying to

0:33:510:33:58

encourage the Taoiseach yesterday to

play hardball with the UK.

I am on

0:33:580:34:02

the side of the UK, and I am worried

that if we go down the path that we

0:34:020:34:07

are being taken down, and Theresa

May and Boris Johnson and the rest

0:34:070:34:12

of them, this shambolic path, we are

going to do fundamental, lasting

0:34:120:34:17

damage to the country we love. I

don't care about the Civil Aviation

0:34:170:34:21

Authority. I care about Britain. --

I don't care about the European

0:34:210:34:27

Union. If every lorry going into the

UK today was stopped for just two

0:34:270:34:36

minutes, we would create an instant

17 mile traffic jam. These people

0:34:360:34:42

just don't care...

I am not these

people! Let us not conflate... You

0:34:420:34:52

either decide that you are

implementing a democratic decision

0:34:520:34:56

of a referendum that was

0:34:560:34:59

of a referendum that was called and

over 17 million voted.

You will not

0:34:590:35:02

stop me debating it. Just as Nigel

Farage...

Stop talking about Nigel

0:35:020:35:10

Farrell Raj. Vote Leave was not

Nigel Farage. There is no desire in

0:35:100:35:21

Germany to punish the United

Kingdom.

They are behaving

0:35:210:35:26

reasonably.

There is a battle of

protectionism and free market going

0:35:260:35:30

on. If we implement this properly,

give businesses the kind of

0:35:300:35:36

incentives they want, we can get a

good deal. So you want a bad deal?

0:35:360:35:42

You are driven by wishful thinking.

Gisela Stuart, you are saying that

0:35:420:35:49

business will intervene to prevent

things like tariffs being put in

0:35:490:35:53

place? They are leaving it a bit

late to put pressure on.

You will

0:35:530:35:57

find that business is laying out the

kind of things they need to get

0:35:570:36:01

those deals. I can find as much

fault with the speed of the

0:36:010:36:06

progress, but what I really do

resent is that you are actually

0:36:060:36:10

encouraging other countries to

undermine...

Know I am not! I spoke

0:36:100:36:19

out in support of the Irish

Taoiseach because I spent a lot of

0:36:190:36:22

time with Tony Blair and his team on

the Good Friday Agreement. The

0:36:220:36:26

people who are driving this hard

Brexit without thinking it through,

0:36:260:36:30

still no answer on how you do Brexit

in our island without a hard border.

0:36:300:36:36

I think the Irish Taoiseach is right

to call out the government on the

0:36:360:36:44

incompetence and the fact they have

not thought it through.

You accept

0:36:440:36:48

the result of the referendum and the

fact that we will be leaving the EU?

0:36:480:36:53

I accept the result of the

referendum, but I do not accept that

0:36:530:36:58

the country will definitely leave,

because the country is entitled to

0:36:580:37:02

change its mind. As the chaos and

costs mount, the public is entitled

0:37:020:37:08

to change its mind and will change

its mind.

There is no evidence at

0:37:080:37:13

the moment.

Come out with me!

Allow

me to finish the sentence. There is

0:37:130:37:22

a changing of mind happening, a

crystallisation. Unlike you, I have

0:37:220:37:28

fought five elections and I have won

five elections. I have probably

0:37:280:37:34

spoken to more people like you.

You

may do, I'm just saying, come out on

0:37:340:37:39

the road with me...

40% of the

population in the middle just want

0:37:390:37:45

us to get on with it. What that film

showed is that if you want to make

0:37:450:37:51

it a self-fulfilling prophecy that

it's a disaster, which I don't. I

0:37:510:37:56

want to implement a deal that is

good for British jobs. The rest of

0:37:560:38:02

the world is changing in terms of

technology. Currently, Germany

0:38:020:38:09

hasn't even got a government, and

nobody is laughing about that.

And

0:38:090:38:15

they are stable without a

government!

Let's leave it

0:38:150:38:17

Hello and welcome

to Sunday Politics.

0:38:250:38:27

It's official - Sinn Fein is to get

a new leader after Gerry Adams

0:38:270:38:31

announced his plan to step

down, at this weekend's

0:38:310:38:34

Ard Fheis in Dublin.

0:38:340:38:36

I'll be asking Michelle O'Neill

what lies ahead for the party given

0:38:360:38:39

the current political challenges.

0:38:390:38:41

And we've upgraded our usual

duet of guests to a trio

0:38:410:38:44

to share their thoughts with us.

0:38:440:38:46

So it's a warm welcome

to commentators Chris Donnelly

0:38:460:38:49

and Allison Morris and to

Professor Rick Wilford

0:38:490:38:51

from Queen's University.

0:38:510:38:59

Sinn Fein will soon

have a new leader, after Gerry Adams

0:38:590:39:02

announced he's standing down

after 34 years in the post.

0:39:020:39:06

At a time when major political

announcements are nearly

0:39:060:39:08

always leaked beforehand,

our Dublin correspondent,

0:39:080:39:11

Shane Harrison, now reports on how

the news was kept under wraps.

0:39:110:39:20

It is around eight o'clock on Friday

night and Sinn Fein's deputy leader

0:39:260:39:31

Mary Lou McDonald takes to the stage

and says...

Welcome one and all to

0:39:310:39:37

this very historic Sinn Fein Ard

Fheis.

Historic? It is not a

0:39:370:39:43

significant anniversary, the party

is 112 years old and has been here

0:39:430:39:48

before. So what could she possibly

mean? Might it have anything to do

0:39:480:39:53

with what Gerry Adams might say in

his presidential address about his

0:39:530:39:57

future leadership?

Gerry Adams has

given a few clues as to what he is

0:39:570:40:02

going to say, he has given me some

clues, but told me not to share it

0:40:020:40:06

with Shane Harrison and the BBC. It

will be significant, as every Ard

0:40:060:40:11

Fheis is.

It is momentous for a very

special reason, but we cannot say

0:40:110:40:15

yet.

So let's call it the Jerry

Jeeps. Those who say would tell

0:40:150:40:23

until Gerry reveals all. The

National Executive has just passed

0:40:230:40:29

an unnoticed motion on the party's

Constitution, rules and regulations.

0:40:290:40:34

It allows for an extraordinary Ard

Fheis to be summoned, no more than

0:40:340:40:39

three months after a vacancy occurs

in the office of the president.

0:40:390:40:45

Could this be a clue to query the

Gerry Ts is going? We will come back

0:40:450:40:53

to the Adams big reveal. On Friday

night, Sinn Fein party motion Allen

0:40:530:40:58

and the party to go into coalition

size of the border as a junior

0:40:580:41:03

partner, as it pushes for a united

Ireland and fights against a hard

0:41:030:41:07

Brexit. Yes, there would have to be

a special Ard Fheis and an agreed

0:41:070:41:12

policy programme, and for the sake

of the argument, we are going to

0:41:120:41:15

have to forget about... They would

have nothing to do with Sinn Fein in

0:41:150:41:22

Government.

What I want an election

night is for the question to be

0:41:220:41:25

changed on its head, not who is Sinn

Fein going into Government with, but

0:41:250:41:30

who will Sinn Fein take into

Government with us? That is the

0:41:300:41:34

fundamental question we want to

picture the Irish people between now

0:41:340:41:37

and the next election.

We want to be

in Government and implement our

0:41:370:41:41

policies, driving towards a united

Ireland. We very much want to fight

0:41:410:41:44

to prevent a hard Brexit and he

reimposed border. We are determined

0:41:440:41:51

by whatever we can to prevent bad.

At this weekend's Ard Fheis, Sinn

0:41:510:41:57

Fein remembered the late Martin

McGuinness, with a photo exhibition,

0:41:570:42:00

a musical tribute and an emotional

appearance on the stage by his

0:42:000:42:07

widow. No longer... The question

remains, how much longer can they

0:42:070:42:17

be? The Sinn Fein leader was 20

minutes into his speech when he

0:42:170:42:23

answered that question.

This is the

important bit.

0:42:230:42:30

LAUGHTER

This is my last Ard Fheis as the

0:42:300:42:34

president. I will be asking the

incoming president to agree a date

0:42:340:42:42

in 2000 and eating very special Ard

Fheis to enact our next president.

0:42:420:42:46

-- to enact.

Gerry Adams has just

finished speaking, it is not going

0:42:460:42:53

to be a case of a long goodbye. Sinn

Fein wants a new leader at a time of

0:42:530:42:58

Brexit, at a time of political

instability North and south of the

0:42:580:43:01

border.

0:43:010:43:02

Shane Harrison reporting

from the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis.

0:43:020:43:04

And joining me live now

from our Dublin studio

0:43:040:43:06

is the party's Stormont leader,

Michelle O'Neill.

0:43:060:43:11

Thank you for joining us on the

programme.

0:43:110:43:13

Gerry Adams said last night:

"Leadership means knowing

0:43:130:43:15

when it is time for change."

0:43:150:43:17

Why is it time for change?

0:43:170:43:18

Why is now the time

for Gerry Adams to stand down?

0:43:180:43:24

Good morning, Mark. We have

certainly had a very exciting, and

0:43:240:43:28

emotional Ard Fheis over the course

of the last two days. We have had

0:43:280:43:31

all the topics discussed, or the

social issues and the issue of

0:43:310:43:34

united Ireland and the position of

Jerry's leadership when he told the

0:43:340:43:40

delegates first it is time for him

to stand down. It is about

0:43:400:43:46

reflecting on a Gerry's leadership

and how he has grown the party over

0:43:460:43:50

the last 34 years. Since 1983 when a

Gerry took over in the aftermath of

0:43:500:43:55

the hunger strikes, at that time we

were in the middle of conflict, when

0:43:550:44:00

you look at his leadership

throughout that time in all those 34

0:44:000:44:03

years, he is an immense man, a man

of amazing leadership skill, he has

0:44:030:44:08

nurtured the party and grown it, he

has been so supportive. For us, this

0:44:080:44:14

has certainly been an historic Ard

Fheis, but for me it has been an

0:44:140:44:18

emotional. It was our first

conference without Martin

0:44:180:44:21

McGuinness, there was a beautiful

tribute to him yesterday evening.

I

0:44:210:44:25

am not surprised you would want to

be a warm tribute to Gerry Adams and

0:44:250:44:28

Martin McGuinness. He has been a

successful leader in your view for

0:44:280:44:35

34 years. He pointed out the

strength of the party at the moment.

0:44:350:44:39

He pointed out the current

electoral strength

0:44:390:44:41

of the party last night -

23 TDs, four MEPs, 27 MLAs,

0:44:410:44:44

seven MPs and over 250 councillors.

0:44:440:44:47

There are big challenges, the Brexit

debate, the challenge of getting

0:44:470:44:50

into Government in the Republic. He

is standing down out of the blue, is

0:44:500:44:55

that an admission he is not the

challenges ahead?

He is more than

0:44:550:44:59

fit for it. What he set himself last

night, one of the things in

0:44:590:45:03

leadership, you should know when it

is time to stand down. Why is it

0:45:030:45:08

time to stand down? He has decided

now is the time for him to stand

0:45:080:45:11

down because he knows he has

nurtured a collective leadership,

0:45:110:45:15

and leadership funerals will now

encourage and refresh the party, it

0:45:150:45:19

will make sure the party has

longevity. He thinks there is the

0:45:190:45:23

time personally for him to stand

down. He knows across our leadership

0:45:230:45:27

there are people that can step into

that role, that can take the party

0:45:270:45:31

forward. That code is testimony to

the leadership skills he has.

Is he

0:45:310:45:38

still going to be in the background

pulling the strings?

Noel, Gerry has

0:45:380:45:43

decided to stand down, he will

support the new leader who comes in.

0:45:430:45:48

We will all throw our weight behind

any new leader. It is emotional and

0:45:480:45:52

exciting. If you look at all the

debate yesterday which we have had

0:45:520:45:57

towards a united Ireland, we have

supported over 500,000 people across

0:45:570:46:02

the Island. I have confidence in our

collective leadership. I will put

0:46:020:46:10

confidence in our new president.

Could I be talking to Sinn Fein's

0:46:100:46:15

new president?

I think I have enough

to do in terms of leading the party

0:46:150:46:18

in the North. We will see who puts

their name forward and I will make

0:46:180:46:23

my decision in terms of who I

support at that time.

Are you ruling

0:46:230:46:27

out putting your own name forward?

I

am indeed. I have enough to do in

0:46:270:46:31

terms of dealing with the problems

we have in the North, trying to get

0:46:310:46:34

the institutions up and running a

game, building confidence people

0:46:340:46:38

need to see in the Stormont

Executive.

You have ruled yourself

0:46:380:46:46

out. Will there be a contest for

this position in the New Year or

0:46:460:46:50

will it be the anointing of Mary Lou

McDonald, the current vice

0:46:500:46:53

president?

What's going to happen it

is the new president, elected

0:46:530:46:59

yesterday, will come forward in the

next couple of weeks, they will meet

0:46:590:47:02

and decide the process for the start

of next year when we were elected

0:47:020:47:06

new leader. That process is yet to

be declared. We will have a special

0:47:060:47:11

Ard Fheis at the start of the year,

a very healthy process, we will

0:47:110:47:16

elect our new leader. You didn't

have to go through an open contest.

0:47:160:47:19

There was no contest. Why should the

Sinn Fein president have to go

0:47:190:47:25

through the inconvenience of a

democratic election?

My selection

0:47:250:47:29

was the same as any other party

leaders, in terms of selecting who

0:47:290:47:33

is the front bench. The president of

the party will be elected at a

0:47:330:47:41

special Ard Fheis. Will it be a

contest? That is to be seen, it

0:47:410:47:45

depends who wants to put a name

forward.

Would you like it to be a

0:47:450:47:48

contest?

0:47:480:47:55

Wouldn't a proper leadership

election contest make more sense?

0:47:550:47:58

A real opportunity for a party that

talks a lot about its democratic

0:47:580:48:01

principles to have an open debate

and give members a real choice?

0:48:010:48:03

They will have to get support across

the party to put their name forward.

0:48:030:48:06

If there is a contest, so be it. We

will go to the floor, delegates will

0:48:060:48:09

vote and will put our weight behind

whatever the outcome is.

The

0:48:090:48:13

decision to allow the party to go

into Government as a junior partner

0:48:130:48:17

in the Republic is interesting.

Why

has there been a U-turn on that? We

0:48:170:48:21

have always said we are ready for

Government and determined to go into

0:48:210:48:24

Government. If you look the housing

crisis, the crisis in the health

0:48:240:48:32

crisis. The people are tired of the

start of school, they want change.

0:48:320:48:36

What we said in this Ard Fheis is we

are prepared to go into Government

0:48:360:48:40

and we will do so on the basis of

negotiating a strong programme for

0:48:400:48:44

Government, one that deals with

public services and one that has an

0:48:440:48:48

agenda to uniting Ireland and a

policy for a referendum.

There was a

0:48:480:48:53

serious dose of reality at the

weekend because your position up to

0:48:530:48:57

yesterday was that you would only go

into Government in the Republic as

0:48:570:49:01

the senior partner. You have

realised that is not practical in

0:49:010:49:04

the short term, if you're going to

get into Government in Leinster

0:49:040:49:07

House you will have to do it as the

junior partner.

I think you're

0:49:070:49:13

making an assumption. It will be up

to the people to decide who is going

0:49:130:49:16

into Government. We will put

ourselves before the Government to

0:49:160:49:20

league-mac public. Whenever you

listen to who they are going to be

0:49:200:49:27

in Government with, that is

arrogant. The people will decide who

0:49:270:49:31

goes into Government. We will set

ODB says. We will put ourselves

0:49:310:49:38

before the electorate, a Government

that ends corruption, stands up

0:49:380:49:43

public services, the people decide

that.

It is a clear expression of

0:49:430:49:49

interest in wanting to be in

Government in Dublin, your critics

0:49:490:49:53

here in Northern Ireland remain

unconvinced you are genuine about

0:49:530:49:56

wanting to see the Executive back.

Tell me whether willingness is to

0:49:560:50:01

compromise on the part of Sinn Fein

in the Stormont talks?

I think the

0:50:010:50:06

public are very aware about what is

at the heart of the current

0:50:060:50:09

political impasse in the North. Sinn

Fein want to be in the Executive. I

0:50:090:50:13

want to pick our departments and

deal with all the issues at hand,

0:50:130:50:16

tackle Greg says, deal with Tory

austerities. We know what needs to

0:50:160:50:23

happen. There are issues that need

to be delivered on, previous

0:50:230:50:30

agreements need to be delivered on.

If we fix those things, we can get

0:50:300:50:33

an Executive up and running. We want

to be in the Executive and we will

0:50:330:50:38

do so on the basis of all those

things been resolved.

John O'Dowd

0:50:380:50:42

told me in a recent conversation

that Sinn Fein cannot compromise on

0:50:420:50:46

a compromise, you could point to any

flexibility on Sinn Fein's position.

0:50:460:50:50

All of the flexibility at Pali has

to come from the DUP and other

0:50:500:50:53

parties. Is that your position? You

are not negotiating or compromising

0:50:530:50:57

on any of those core principles?

In

politics you always have to

0:50:570:51:03

compromise. John was pointing out

that we have compromised in the

0:51:030:51:05

past, we have made agreements with

the DUP and they have failed to

0:51:050:51:09

deliver. That is the problem. We

need to see the delivery of previous

0:51:090:51:15

agreements, people being given the

same rights as they can get you in

0:51:150:51:18

Dublin, you can get married and have

your language rights, in the North

0:51:180:51:21

you cannot. Once you get those

things results, we will establish an

0:51:210:51:25

Executive. Any incoming Executive is

going to have big challenges, if you

0:51:250:51:30

look at Brexit, Tory austerities.

Unless we resolve those issues, the

0:51:300:51:34

Executive is not sustainable. We are

committed to being in the

0:51:340:51:38

institutions in the North. We want

to be in the institutions right

0:51:380:51:42

across the islands. We need to deal

with the issues at the heart of the

0:51:420:51:46

political impasse if we are going to

get it up and running again.

You met

0:51:460:51:50

the Taoiseach Leo Varadkar last week

and a delegation from the party is

0:51:500:51:53

to meet the Prime Minister Theresa

May on Tuesday. What do you hope to

0:51:530:51:57

get out of that meeting?

We met the

Taoiseach on Thursday or Friday and

0:51:570:52:02

we are meeting Theresa May on

Tuesday. We are saying the DUP have

0:52:020:52:06

failed to deliver on the rights

-based issue, they have failed to

0:52:060:52:11

deliver on previous agreements, we

are calling on both governments to

0:52:110:52:15

play their role in the Good Friday

Agreement, to deliver on the

0:52:150:52:20

agreements, to establish the

intergovernmental conference. That

0:52:200:52:23

allows for joint partnership working

between both governments. When I

0:52:230:52:27

need May on Tuesday, I will make

that point to her. One of the

0:52:270:52:31

problems we have is the fact the DUP

have a political pact with the

0:52:310:52:35

Tories, they haven't stood by, they

haven't encouraged them to go on to

0:52:350:52:42

the ground of delivering on previous

agreements.

The British-Irish

0:52:420:52:49

Intergovernmental Conference is an

interesting demand from your point

0:52:490:52:51

of view. Some people would interpret

that as an admission that the

0:52:510:52:55

Stormont talks are going nowhere

fast. We are away with the stocks at

0:52:550:52:59

the moment? By the active or not?

Gregory Campbell told me the DUP is

0:52:590:53:04

still talking to Sinn Fein. A Sinn

Fein representative couldn't say

0:53:040:53:08

whether the talks were ongoing or

not. What is the current status of

0:53:080:53:12

the devolution talks?

The talks are

not ongoing. What I said over the

0:53:120:53:18

course of the last several weeks is

endless talks without an outcome are

0:53:180:53:22

not good enough. We need to bring an

end to the phase of talks. We will

0:53:220:53:26

come back to a talks process of some

description. We cannot keep going

0:53:260:53:30

round the hamster wheel. The issues

are clear. Everybody knows what

0:53:300:53:35

needs to be resolved in order to

establish the Executive. We will

0:53:350:53:38

always talk to all the other

partners in Government. We need to

0:53:380:53:42

get an outcome and it needs to be

the delivery on his previous

0:53:420:53:45

agreements. It has to be the

delivery of people's writes. We need

0:53:450:53:50

an Executive that is sustainable,

people have confidence in and it is

0:53:500:53:54

something with integrity.

You have

got to deal with the fact we are

0:53:540:53:58

heading towards direct rule,

apparently?

We do not want direct

0:53:580:54:03

rule, it won't work, it has failed

in the past and will fail again.

0:54:030:54:07

They will only enjoy the confidence

and the support of the public if

0:54:070:54:11

they serve all the people which they

are intended to serve. That means

0:54:110:54:15

delivering all people their rights,

making sure we have equality in

0:54:150:54:19

Government, mutual respect. That the

Government people can have

0:54:190:54:22

confidence in.

0:54:220:54:23

Michelle O'Neill

in Dublin, thank you.

0:54:230:54:25

Let's hear from my guests of the day

- commentator Chris Donnelly,

0:54:250:54:28

Allison Morris from the Irish News,

and Professor Rick Wilford.

0:54:280:54:34

Chris Donnelly, let's talk about

Gerry Adams's decision. Possibly no

0:54:340:54:38

great surprise. The speed with which

he has apparently stood down as

0:54:380:54:42

interesting.

Yes, it is undoubtedly

the case Gerry Adams and the Sinn

0:54:420:54:48

Fein leadership are now looking

towards removing the party into a

0:54:480:54:52

position where it can get into

Government in the south. They are

0:54:520:54:56

looking at the fact there is an

acceptance that Gerry Adams is

0:54:560:54:59

coming to the end of his leadership

tenure and that Mary Lou McDonald

0:54:590:55:03

might position it Sinn Fein is

better to be able to sit alongside a

0:55:030:55:12

Government. That would be a key

development for Sinn Fein to finally

0:55:120:55:16

make that breakthrough, and

potentially be in Government in

0:55:160:55:18

North and south of the same time.

Gerry Adams says leadership is about

0:55:180:55:24

knowing it is time for change. Why

is it time for him to stand down now

0:55:240:55:29

specifically?

If you look at the

motion which changed... Sinn Fein,

0:55:290:55:38

that Ard Fheis, it was about social

issues in the south, it was about

0:55:380:55:41

getting into Government in the side.

There was very little of it when you

0:55:410:55:46

listen to it about the North and the

political crisis up here. Gerry

0:55:460:55:49

Adams is standing down at this

political pound, making room for an

0:55:490:55:52

Mary Lou McDonald, a more suitable

partner in Government. It is all

0:55:520:55:56

very deliberate.

Michelle O'Neill

ruled herself out. She is not

0:55:560:56:03

interested, she has got enough to be

getting on with she says. Is it

0:56:030:56:07

going to be the anointing of Mary

Lou McDonald?

Probably. There is no

0:56:070:56:12

way that Gerry Adams's successor

could come from Northern Ireland, it

0:56:120:56:15

has to be somebody from the side.

Chris is right, Mary Lou McDonald is

0:56:150:56:22

ideally placed. It will be another

coronation, just like we have for

0:56:220:56:25

the party leaders appear. -- up

here. The intellectual heft of Sinn

0:56:250:56:36

Fein is increasingly moving

southwards. You cannot think Sinn

0:56:360:56:43

Fein representatives in Northern

Ireland there is anybody who

0:56:430:56:46

probably can have the potential

appeal of Mary Lou McDonald as a

0:56:460:56:50

candidate at the next general

election.

Chris, in terms of how it

0:56:500:56:58

the party shifts and changes, moves

in a new direction, North and south,

0:56:580:57:02

how do you see that unfolding in the

months and years ahead without Gerry

0:57:020:57:07

Adams at the helm?

Gerry Adams came

to be the personification of

0:57:070:57:12

modern-day Sinn Fein, he is leaving

a legacy in terms of how he has

0:57:120:57:16

developed the southern wing of the

party. Now they are on the verge of

0:57:160:57:20

being a partner in Government,

albeit they had to move him out to

0:57:200:57:24

make it be the case that the party

is in a stronger position. His

0:57:240:57:27

greatest concern is to ensure that

the party North and south stays

0:57:270:57:33

together. There is a concern that

the asymmetrical development of the

0:57:330:57:39

party, the site is more ideological,

the North still has those hang-up

0:57:390:57:43

issues from the conflict. -- the

south. The job for Michelle O'Neill

0:57:430:57:47

is going to be crucial, and her team

it is important.

Under any risks for

0:57:470:57:53

Sinn Fein in this?

Gerry Adams is

such a massive figure, he

0:57:530:57:59

border. -- Ken Clarke. When you talk

to people who support Brexit in

1:00:521:00:56

Northern Ireland, they say it is

very simple and straightforward, it

1:00:561:00:59

can be done.

No, they don't. It is

important Leo Varadkar says this as

1:00:591:01:07

the pointy can we are maximum

influence. It is surprising some

1:01:071:01:12

people said he was caught off-guard.

It was always going to be the case

1:01:121:01:17

the Irish Government knew they had

to get this right at this moment. It

1:01:171:01:23

suggests they haven't properly

thought this through. I cannot see

1:01:231:01:26

Leo Varadkar moving at this time.

This could be potentially

1:01:261:01:30

catastrophic for the Irish economy.

1:01:301:01:31

That's it, back to Sarah in London.

1:01:311:01:31

Philip Hammond will deliver his

Budget on Wednesday -

1:01:381:01:41

he's moved it to the Autumn

if you remember - and he'll be

1:01:411:01:44

hoping it can help re-define

the Government in the eyes

1:01:441:01:46

of the public.

1:01:461:01:47

But when it comes to

the economy, do people trust

1:01:471:01:51

the Conservatives, or Labour?

1:01:511:01:52

Here's Ellie Price

with the moodbox.

1:01:521:01:57

MUSIC: The Road to Nowhere

by Talking Heads.

1:01:571:02:05

All eyes will be on the Chancellor

this week as we find out

1:02:051:02:08

what he has been cooking

up in his Budget.

1:02:081:02:10

So we have pulled off the A1

near Peterborough to ask people here

1:02:101:02:13

who they trust with the economy -

is it the Chancellor,

1:02:131:02:16

Philip Hammond, or is it

Labour's John McDonnell?

1:02:161:02:23

No 7.

1:02:231:02:26

Which one's Tory?

1:02:261:02:31

I voted Conservative

for the last two

1:02:381:02:39

elections, don't feel very confident

now, so I'm going to swap.

1:02:391:02:44

If I said to you which

of these characters

1:02:441:02:46

would you trust with the economy,

what would you say?

1:02:461:02:48

The one who's currently

running it, because they

1:02:481:02:50

seem to be bringing

the deficit down.

1:02:501:02:52

Labour.

1:02:521:02:53

Why?

1:02:531:02:54

Because I'm an NHS worker.

1:02:541:02:57

For me, it's just about

spending, public spending.

1:02:571:03:00

Labour always overspend.

1:03:001:03:05

John McDonnell, I think

capitalism as we know it is tanked

1:03:051:03:11

and I think we need

a radical re-think.

1:03:111:03:16

Broken his egg, who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:161:03:18

No one.

1:03:181:03:19

Why?

1:03:191:03:22

Because they never come up trumps

with anything that they

1:03:221:03:27

reckon they're going to do.

1:03:271:03:28

If I had to make you

choose one of them?

1:03:281:03:31

The man that's there, Hammond.

1:03:311:03:32

I wouldn't trust

Philip Hammond with a

1:03:321:03:34

bag of marbles or a plastic ball!

1:03:341:03:40

Hello, Bob.

1:03:401:03:41

Oh, hello.

1:03:411:03:42

Who do you trust

more on the economy?

1:03:421:03:44

Oh, the Conservatives.

1:03:441:03:45

Do you?

Why's that?

1:03:451:03:46

I just think they're better

for the small businessman.

1:03:461:03:49

We need a Maggie or

a Winston Churchill,

1:03:491:03:51

somebody in there with

balls to say, right,

1:03:511:03:54

that's the direction

we are

1:03:541:03:56

going in, that's what

we are going to do.

1:03:561:03:58

I've got balls!

1:03:581:04:00

What are you doing?

1:04:001:04:02

Putting balls in holes

by the look of it!

1:04:021:04:09

I suppose the lesser of the two

evils is anything but Tory,

1:04:091:04:11

but I say that without a great

deal of conviction.

1:04:111:04:14

Having grown up in the '70s

with all the rubbish on the

1:04:141:04:17

streets, the strikes, the unions.

1:04:171:04:18

Re-nationalisation and they're

going to spend a lot of money

1:04:181:04:22

and increase taxes and it will pull

the country down.

1:04:221:04:28

I've seen an awful loft of all-day

breakfasts today, but it

1:04:281:04:31

is clearing up time here

at the diner and time

1:04:311:04:34

to reveal the Moodbox.

1:04:341:04:36

Take it away, Tim.

1:04:361:04:38

As you can say it was

a close-run thing, but

1:04:381:04:41

like any fiscally responsible

Chancellor, I've done my maths and

1:04:411:04:43

counted and Philip Hammond got six

more votes than John McDonnell.

1:04:431:04:50

Oh, chip, thank you very much!

1:04:501:04:54

That was Ellie and the entirely

unscientific Moodbox,

1:04:541:04:56

at the Stibbington diner near

Peterborough.

1:04:561:04:58

But for a slightly more scientific

understanding of how the public view

1:04:581:05:01

the parties on this and other

issues, let's have a look

1:05:011:05:04

at some recent polling.

1:05:041:05:05

Here's where the Conservatives

and Labour stood on the economy back

1:05:051:05:08

when the Prime Minister called

the snap election in April,

1:05:081:05:11

when the Conservatives had a big

lead, as they did in many

1:05:111:05:14

other areas.

1:05:141:05:16

The most recent poll by the same

company reckoned Labour had narrowed

1:05:161:05:19

the gap significantly,

as they have in other areas,

1:05:191:05:22

although they're still 10 points

behind the Tories on this issue.

1:05:221:05:27

And there was another survey much

discussed at Westminster this week,

1:05:271:05:30

showing that while the gap

between Theresa May

1:05:301:05:36

and Jeremy Corbyn has narrowed

drastically since that pre-election

1:05:361:05:38

period, Mrs May is,

despite her many problems,

1:05:381:05:40

still pretty much level-pegging

in polling terms or

1:05:401:05:42

even slightly ahead.

1:05:421:05:43

And when it comes to how

people intend to vote

1:05:431:05:45

while the Tories are behind,

there's no sign of a

1:05:451:05:48

big Labour lead yet.

1:05:481:05:50

Tony Blair thinks that,

given the current "mess"

1:05:501:05:52

inside the Government,

Jeremy Corbyn's party should be

1:05:521:05:56

10 or 15 points ahead.

1:05:561:05:59

Well, many in Labour will find it

easy to dismiss both Tony Blair

1:05:591:06:02

and the opinion polls, as they both

called the last election entirely

1:06:021:06:05

wrong, so what if anything do

these polls tell us?

1:06:051:06:11

Let's turn to our expert panel.

Labour are now eight points on the

1:06:111:06:20

economy, according to a poll. Why is

there a gap between Labour and the

1:06:201:06:24

Tories?

There seems to be a

deep-seated reservation in the minds

1:06:241:06:31

of many voters. They look at Jeremy

Corbyn and John McDonnell and

1:06:311:06:34

imagine them in charge of the

country, the finances, national

1:06:341:06:40

security, and think... It is

unfashionable to point out in many

1:06:401:06:43

circles that Labour did not win the

last election, and it didn't win it

1:06:431:06:47

for that kind of reason. Jeremy

Corbyn is very good at attracting

1:06:471:06:53

and inspiring young people and

people who had not voted before. We

1:06:531:06:59

underestimated his capacity to do

that. But he wasn't great at turning

1:06:591:07:05

Tories to Labour, or sealing off

those final reservations. The

1:07:051:07:10

government have had a shambolic few

weeks. We are tripping over

1:07:101:07:14

resigning a cabinet ministers. They

are fighting like ferrets. A lot of

1:07:141:07:18

people are having a really tough

time and looking at the government

1:07:181:07:22

to help them, and are unimpressed

with what they see. But there seems

1:07:221:07:26

to be a final fence that Corbyn does

not seem to be able to get over.

1:07:261:07:34

Isn't Tony Blair right, that Labour

should be 15 or 20 points ahead?

I

1:07:341:07:39

think he's completely wrong, and is

revealing he is out of date. I think

1:07:391:07:43

Labour are in a really good

position. If you look at what they

1:07:431:07:46

have achieved in the last year,

going into Christmas 2016, Corbyn

1:07:461:07:52

had just managed to avoid, had to

re-fight Labour leadership contest.

1:07:521:07:59

They were 20 points behind. Theresa

May was at the top of her game.

1:07:591:08:06

Through the general election and

beyond it, they have continued to

1:08:061:08:10

build their movement. They are very

effective on social media. I think

1:08:101:08:15

they are in a strong position, and

they need about 60 seats to win the

1:08:151:08:20

next general election. They will

probably start with 25 of those. The

1:08:201:08:25

fact that they are closing the gap

on the economy suggests that a lot

1:08:251:08:29

of voters are now giving them a

chance or a hearing, which they

1:08:291:08:34

certainly were not getting a year

ago. I think they have done very

1:08:341:08:38

well.

Can they be confident with a

slim lead against the government?

I

1:08:381:08:43

am slightly more with Tony Blair

than with Iain. This goes back to

1:08:431:08:48

that very general election result. A

huge turnout for Labour for Jeremy

1:08:481:08:56

Corbyn. If you asked that same 40%

of people today, do you want Jeremy

1:08:561:09:03

Corbyn to be Prime Minister? Where

you really voting for Jeremy Corbyn

1:09:031:09:07

to lead the British governmentanswer

is no, because Theresa May still,

1:09:071:09:13

despite the fact she is presiding

over a shambolic cabinet, she has

1:09:131:09:17

the most support for Prime Minister.

The last general election may have

1:09:171:09:24

just been a giant by-election,

because everyone was so short that

1:09:241:09:30

Theresa May would get in.

The

Chancellor Philip Hammond gave

1:09:301:09:34

Labour a bit of a gift, when he

said, there were not any unemployed

1:09:341:09:41

people in Britain. A slip of the

tongue. Was that damaging?

You have

1:09:411:09:47

to look at the context he was saying

it in, which will not be the context

1:09:471:09:51

of the Facebook meme you will get

shortly. He was asked about future

1:09:511:09:59

unemployment, and he was saying that

when technological advances came,

1:09:591:10:09

unemployment didn't materialise.

They would not be able to use that

1:10:091:10:15

against him so easily if it didn't

have something that people think

1:10:151:10:19

about the Conservative government,

which is that they are out of touch,

1:10:191:10:23

they have no idea about some people,

that they refuse to see what they

1:10:231:10:27

have done. People have that idea

about the Conservatives, so to drop

1:10:271:10:32

a bit of a clanger in that regard...

The budget is on Wednesday, and also

1:10:321:10:38

this week, the Brexit committee will

be meeting. What will they be

1:10:381:10:42

talking about and why does it

matter?

What Stephen Hammond said to

1:10:421:10:47

you a few moments ago was

fascinating. Tomorrow is going to be

1:10:471:10:50

the big meeting. It is the

negotiations committee. Nine or so

1:10:501:10:57

ministers have recently been

included in that, like Michael Gove.

1:10:571:11:00

They are going to be talking about

the money, precisely how much they

1:11:001:11:05

offer in two weeks' time to meet

this deadline in the December

1:11:051:11:10

council for phase two. Michael Gove

and Boris Johnson want to add in

1:11:101:11:13

conditions. They want to say, we

will give you this as long as we get

1:11:131:11:19

that. What was fascinating with

Stephen Hammond just now was that he

1:11:191:11:24

revealed that it wasn't just the

Brexiteers in Cabinet who want a

1:11:241:11:26

more precise definition of what we

are going for, it is the remainers

1:11:261:11:37

as well.

In the heart of the

government, David Davis is trying to

1:11:371:11:42

keep the bill as low as possible,

possibly around 30%. The divorce

1:11:421:11:50

Bill and future liabilities. Some in

the civil service have suggested

1:11:501:11:56

that it has to be 40 or above. What

it reveals to me is really, it's

1:11:561:12:03

another function of Britain not

really having a proper Prime

1:12:031:12:07

Minister. In normal circumstances,

of course the Cabinet is divided. A

1:12:071:12:12

strong leader would say, right, this

is what is happening. This is where

1:12:121:12:16

we are going. We will call it 35 or

40 billion. We will save to the

1:12:161:12:22

European Union, there is the check,

but it will not have a signature on

1:12:221:12:26

it until we are satisfied with the

next

1:12:261:12:39

stage. The government is hampered by

the lack of a strong personality who

1:12:451:12:48

could do that, make a political play

with other European leaders that

1:12:481:12:50

might break the deadlock.

Presumably

that is why the full Cabinet have

1:12:501:12:53

not discussed what the future Brexit

deal will be.

That is the

1:12:531:12:55

astonishing thing. There has been no

sort of vision of what Britain is

1:12:551:12:58

going to look like after Brexit. We

have got down in what the

1:12:581:13:02

negotiation position for tomorrow

will be. What does it look like in

1:13:021:13:06

terms of immigration, trade with the

rest of the world, what life will

1:13:061:13:09

look like for ordinarily... Ordinary

people?

There are visions for this,

1:13:091:13:15

but they will not agree on one. Is

there such a thing as a Tory Cabinet

1:13:151:13:20

Minister who could have one single

vision without them all ripping each

1:13:201:13:24

other's heads off? Probably not.

Thank you.

1:13:241:13:29

That's all for today.

1:13:291:13:30

Join me again next Sunday

at 11.00 here on BBC One.

1:13:301:13:33

Until then, bye bye.

1:13:331:13:36

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