26/11/2017 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


26/11/2017

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 26/11/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

Morning everyone and welcome

to the Sunday Politics.

0:00:360:00:38

I'm Sarah Smith.

0:00:380:00:40

And this is your essential briefing

on everything that's

0:00:400:00:43

happening this Sunday morning

in the world of politics.

0:00:430:00:46

Ireland says it will "continue

to play tough until the end"

0:00:460:00:48

over the Irish border.

0:00:480:00:50

As Dublin threatens

to derail Brexit trade

0:00:500:00:52

talks, vice-president

of the European Parliament Mairead

0:00:520:00:56

McGuiness tells us why she thinks

a hard border would cause havoc.

0:00:560:00:59

Leading Brexiteer and former

Northern Ireland Secretary Owen

0:00:590:01:01

Paterson will debate with her live.

0:01:010:01:05

It was billed as a make or break

moment for the Chancellor -

0:01:050:01:09

Phillip Hammond appears to have

avoided an omni or even

0:01:090:01:11

a mini-shambles.

0:01:110:01:12

We'll get Budget reaction

from the man who last month tried

0:01:120:01:15

to topple Theresa May -

former Tory Chairman, Grant Shapps.

0:01:150:01:18

And what did the Chancellor

do for the North?

0:01:190:01:25

And in Northern Ireland: A rousing

reception for Arlene Foster

0:01:280:01:32

at her party conference

as she attacks Sinn Fein,

0:01:320:01:35

rules out a border in the Irish Sea

and says time is running out

0:01:350:01:38

to restore devolution.

0:01:380:01:41

All that coming up in the programme.

0:01:430:01:46

So, no omni-shambles Budget.

0:01:460:01:49

But don't worry, if you're a fan

of the shambolic you'll

0:01:490:01:52

love our political panel,

Sam Coates, Zoe Williams

0:01:520:01:53

and Iain Martin.

0:01:530:01:55

Welcome to the programme.

0:01:550:01:58

It has been the Budget that's

dominated the political week.

0:01:580:02:00

There was no pasty tax

or national insurance U-turn -

0:02:000:02:04

but there were sharp downgrades

for growth and productivity,

0:02:040:02:07

offset by enough optimism

to cheer the Tory benches.

0:02:070:02:11

This week's Budget was billed as

a make or break for Philip Hammond.

0:02:150:02:19

His last effort in March contained

a manifesto-mangling national

0:02:190:02:22

insurance rise which lasted

barely a week.

0:02:220:02:26

Humiliated today, Chancellor?

0:02:260:02:28

Will you resign?

0:02:280:02:30

This time, his cheery demeanour

was perhaps designed

0:02:330:02:35

to confound his critics

who think his outlook on Brexit

0:02:350:02:37

is, well, miserable.

0:02:370:02:40

What he's doing is very

close to sabotage.

0:02:400:02:44

Regrettably, our productivity

performance continues to disappoint.

0:02:440:02:49

But the downbeat tone

wasn't down to Hammond,

0:02:490:02:52

it was the independent Office

for Budget Responsibility,

0:02:520:02:58

the lower productivity projections

lead to growth forecasts

0:02:580:02:59

of less than 2%.

0:02:590:03:02

Here's the new realistic forecast,

average growth of just 1.4% a year.

0:03:020:03:06

A slowdown that won't go away.

0:03:060:03:09

The Chancellor may not have

been able to drive up

0:03:120:03:15

productivity and growth,

but he has a cunning plan to remove

0:03:150:03:17

the need to drive at all.

0:03:170:03:20

David Cameron's old mate

Jeremy Clarkson is reported to be

0:03:200:03:23

less than impressed.

0:03:230:03:24

Jeremy Clarkson doesn't like them.

0:03:240:03:26

But there are many other good

reasons to pursue this technology.

0:03:260:03:31

So today we step up

our support for it.

0:03:310:03:37

Sorry, Jeremy, but definitely not

the first time you've been

0:03:370:03:39

snubbed by Hammond and May.

0:03:390:03:41

More money for the English health

service, a Brexit fund

0:03:410:03:44

and abolishing stamp duty

for first-time buyers

0:03:440:03:45

lifted the mood.

0:03:450:03:46

I commend this

statement to the house.

0:03:460:03:50

But senior figures in the NHS said

the new money was not enough

0:03:560:03:59

and less, in this Budget at least,

than the amount pledged for Brexit,

0:03:590:04:02

giving some Remainers

plenty of fun on Twitter.

0:04:020:04:05

It turned out the stamp duty

changes would mainly help

0:04:070:04:10

people selling a house,

not buying them.

0:04:100:04:13

Tweaks to the Universal Credit

system soothed Tory concerns,

0:04:130:04:17

but they didn't calm

the Labour leader.

0:04:170:04:18

Uncaring!

0:04:180:04:21

The uncaring, uncooth attitude

of certain members opposite!

0:04:210:04:25

Order!

0:04:260:04:27

Order!

0:04:280:04:28

And his Shadow Chancellor had

some number trouble.

0:04:300:04:33

How much do we now spend on paying

the interest of our national debt.

0:04:330:04:37

A lot.

0:04:370:04:38

How much?

0:04:380:04:39

Well, I'll give you the figure.

0:04:390:04:41

I'll send you a note on the figure.

0:04:410:04:43

You don't know?

0:04:430:04:44

I know the figure...

0:04:440:04:45

How much?

0:04:450:04:46

I'll send it.

0:04:460:04:47

Well, you tell me now.

0:04:470:04:49

The forecast may be sticky,

but at least the Daily Mail

0:04:490:04:52

had a positive outlook.

0:04:520:04:53

Phil was no longer

a miserable donkey.

0:04:530:04:57

And by the end of the week,

the Chancellor could still smile.

0:04:570:05:00

He might even stay in Number 11

long enough to deliver

0:05:000:05:02

next year's Budget.

0:05:020:05:06

We're joined now by the former

Conservative Party

0:05:070:05:09

Chairman, Grant Shapps.

0:05:090:05:13

Thank you very much for coming in.

No banana skin in the Budget for

0:05:130:05:18

Philip Hammond, but really dismal

growth prospects. What is the

0:05:180:05:21

government back to doing wrong?

Well, first of all, he cheered up

0:05:210:05:26

the backbenches by giving quite an

upbeat assessment. The economy is

0:05:260:05:29

still growing, the jobs factory of

Europe. Not words we are used to

0:05:290:05:37

hearing from Philip Hammond.

But

overall, growth prospects are really

0:05:370:05:41

bad, they have been significantly

downgraded.

Of course, the really

0:05:410:05:48

big story is the Office for Budget

Responsibility say we are going to

0:05:480:05:50

grow at 1.5%, not 2%. That is a real

problem. I thought Philip's

0:05:500:05:54

presentation of the issue was

interesting. He said this is of the

0:05:540:05:58

outside of our control, it is the

office of Budget response ability.

0:05:580:06:01

It is to do with productivity, who

knows what that is made up of? That

0:06:010:06:05

sort of excuses get mug from having

to do anything. There are things we

0:06:050:06:09

can do to attract business to this

country. You have the tax base, the

0:06:090:06:14

attitude towards business. We spent

quite a while looking like we were

0:06:140:06:18

not interested in business, business

being thought of as bad. I am

0:06:180:06:24

pleased to see that is changing.

You

think the few has a pro-business

0:06:240:06:28

attitude that wasn't there a year

ago?

We have them locked out of

0:06:280:06:31

Downing Street for a while, sector

leaders could not express their

0:06:310:06:35

concerns. Some conference speeches

that business as the bad guys rather

0:06:350:06:40

than job creators. That seems to

have gone and I welcome it.

Why?

0:06:400:06:45

Because it is not realistic to

believe that business is evil and

0:06:450:06:49

bad. Business people that create the

jobs for this country, the well for

0:06:490:06:56

this country...

But why do you think

the government but robust change the

0:06:560:06:59

message on that?

It is hard to know

what created that. Since the

0:06:590:07:06

election we have a change in

emphasis. Business leaders are now

0:07:060:07:09

welcomed to come and talk to the

Prime Minister and the Chancellor

0:07:090:07:11

about what is going on. One thing we

could do now, we are leaving Europe,

0:07:110:07:15

we had all of those red tape

challenges in the Coalition

0:07:150:07:18

Government but we always got stuck

when it got to the EU. We had to

0:07:180:07:21

say, we can't do anything about that

red tape. We can now go back on

0:07:210:07:25

that. I would like the cupboard to

go further and not just accept

0:07:250:07:29

figures from the Office for Budget

Responsibility. I'm actually

0:07:290:07:31

doubtful about that and I think that

Philip Hammond is as well. Growth of

0:07:310:07:36

productivity is a difficult thing to

measure. This country trades more

0:07:360:07:44

online than any other country in the

world. We are top of that league

0:07:440:07:48

table. That has to be a more

efficient way to do business. Yet it

0:07:480:07:51

does not seem to be reflected in

productivity.

They are forecasts,

0:07:510:07:55

the productivity figures. But the

middle, things could be worse, the

0:07:550:07:59

OBR say. The... Seems to say these

are the projections, we hope it

0:07:590:08:06

isn't that. Is it the Buttler's job

to do something about productivity?

0:08:060:08:12

The government EU has a role to

play. I started a printing business

0:08:120:08:18

which still exists to this day.

Uncertainty over Brexit could lead a

0:08:180:08:22

business like that to delay

purchasing a new press. One that is

0:08:220:08:26

likely to be faster, less setup

time, print stuff faster.

0:08:260:08:31

Uncertainty in the economy slows

that down. Of course the Government

0:08:310:08:36

has a role. It cannot act the way it

treats taxation, investment, it can

0:08:360:08:42

encourage businesses. Actually, I

suspect what the Office for Budget

0:08:420:08:46

Responsibility has done is said, oh,

all of this uncertainty has lead to

0:08:460:08:50

slower productivity and therefore we

will continue projecting forward,

0:08:500:08:54

almost ad infinitum. The projections

went up five years. If we can get

0:08:540:09:00

the Brexit uncertainty out of the

way...

That is what I was about to

0:09:000:09:04

say. The great uncertainty is under

Brexit. We are not entering a period

0:09:040:09:08

where things will be more certain

people can confidently make

0:09:080:09:11

investment decisions, nobody knows

what the future trading relationship

0:09:110:09:15

will be.

I think Government can help

with that. If you have a Government

0:09:150:09:19

that, at its heart, fundamentally,

is singing from the same hymn sheet,

0:09:190:09:23

you saw Number 10 and Number 11,

finally, a bit of banter between the

0:09:230:09:28

two of them, the Chancellor and the

Prime Minister, they went out on

0:09:280:09:38

Thursday and did a visit together.

You have a Cabinet meeting reported

0:09:380:09:40

from Tuesday where they are agreeing

how to go forward collectively on

0:09:400:09:43

Europe. If you can have the central

government working in unison, it

0:09:430:09:45

gives business of evidence, it gives

the economy confidence that maybe

0:09:450:09:48

you can get to faster growth by

having better productivity and more

0:09:480:09:51

inward investment.

Six weeks ago you

were calling for the Prime Minister

0:09:510:09:55

to stand down. You were outed as

leading a coup against her. Have you

0:09:550:10:00

changed your mind?

I saw your

lead-in, calling colleagues that

0:10:000:10:04

want to go and speak to the Prime

Minister about a perfectly sensible

0:10:040:10:07

subject that she herself has asked

for colleagues' opinions on, how

0:10:070:10:11

long should I be in this role, to

call it a plot is tabloid. The

0:10:110:10:17

reality is, of course colleagues

should be able to have that

0:10:170:10:19

conversation. We do not live in

North Korea. We shouldn't be not

0:10:190:10:23

allowed to express views, nor do

they disappear if you don't express

0:10:230:10:25

them.

You said your colleagues have

buried their heads in the sand,

0:10:250:10:29

hoping things would get better. It

never got better for Gordon Brown or

0:10:290:10:34

John Major, it will not get that for

Theresa May. Have you changed your

0:10:340:10:40

mind

I think that colleagues should

be allowed to have views and express

0:10:400:10:43

them. My views have not changed.

However, I also accept the reality

0:10:430:10:48

of the situation, that we are in a

very sensitive period with Brexit

0:10:480:10:53

negotiations. Six weeks ago is six

weeks ago. Time moves on and Brexit

0:10:530:10:58

negotiations wait 101. What we have

to do have is a Government that is

0:10:580:11:03

capable of singing from the same

hymn sheet, going to Brussels. If

0:11:030:11:10

you have Number 10 and Number 11 at

each other's throats, when you have

0:11:100:11:15

people been briefed against the

centre, whips that are more

0:11:150:11:22

interested in... We have mutineers

on the front of the Telegraph, 50

0:11:220:11:25

people that wanted not to have the

date for Brexit in the bill. I don't

0:11:250:11:29

happen to agree with those people.

But to have colleagues accused of

0:11:290:11:34

being mutineers because they have a

slightly diverted the view is

0:11:340:11:37

ridiculous. -- diverted view. I am

pleased what we are seeing now is an

0:11:370:11:45

attitude from the centre saying

let's work together, let's not

0:11:450:11:51

briefed against others, let's get on

and stop the country from the even

0:11:510:11:54

bigger danger than Brexit, a Jeremy

Corbyn government.

Stay there for a

0:11:540:11:59

moment. I am going to bring in the

panel. You were listening to that

0:11:590:12:05

interview. A change in mood towards

the Prime Minister?

Haven't seems to

0:12:050:12:12

have cheered up a lot. He seemed to

me like a man giving his own leaving

0:12:120:12:16

speech. There was a devil may care

attitude aspect, not really backed

0:12:160:12:24

up by what you're saying. They

wanted always. There would be OBR

0:12:240:12:28

figures to be nothing to do with a

Government. Unfortunately they have

0:12:280:12:31

revised down, there is nothing we

can really do. At the same time,

0:12:310:12:36

they wanted to show Conservative

policies are capable of driving

0:12:360:12:41

growth. They want to say,

unfortunately it is not a generous

0:12:410:12:45

Budget because growth figures are

revised downwards, while at the same

0:12:450:12:48

time saying that the OBR is often

wrong, who knows if it will be

0:12:480:12:52

correct. I don't think you get any

clear analysis from this.

Cake and

0:12:520:12:59

eat it?

The significance is not

really economic, it is political. If

0:12:590:13:08

you go back a week, it seemed

possible, likely even, that the

0:13:080:13:12

Chancellor was going to be replaced

in a reshuffle expected between now

0:13:120:13:19

and Christmas. He has saved his job.

His critics in other parties will

0:13:190:13:25

say, well, his job should be about

more than his own personal survival.

0:13:250:13:29

But it alters the dynamics. It means

that the government but was not

0:13:290:13:36

quite Chancellor, it means a

reshuffle could be less substantial

0:13:360:13:41

than might have been the case. It

seems the Tories have had a shocking

0:13:410:13:46

run over the last few months. They

were rather buoyed up by it. Not

0:13:460:13:51

that it was a massive success as a

Budget, it was just OK. That counts

0:13:510:13:55

for quite a lot at the moment.

Listening to what Grant Shapps was

0:13:550:13:59

telling us, it sounds like Theresa

May's job is safe as well?

I would

0:13:590:14:03

if she is sitting in Downing Street

wearing a badge saying Philip

0:14:030:14:08

Hammond saved my job? The point is,

just to pull out the camera, the

0:14:080:14:14

fundamentals have not changed. The

Conservatives did not win an overall

0:14:140:14:17

majority at the election, they still

have to deliver Brexit in an

0:14:170:14:20

incredibly complicated process, that

looks intractable with negotiation

0:14:200:14:27

difficulties, particularly with

Ireland, but also bringing the

0:14:270:14:30

Cabinet together over some of these

incredibly thorny issues about where

0:14:300:14:33

Brexit is going to end up. Although

Grant is putting a positive gloss on

0:14:330:14:43

it now, the conference after which

he was adjusted people might

0:14:430:14:45

consider her going -- after which he

suggested people might consider her

0:14:450:14:51

going, things have not really

changed. He says his view has not

0:14:510:14:55

really changed, and I think that

many of the people that Grant talks

0:14:550:14:59

to, they have not changed their

fundamental view about the talents

0:14:590:15:03

and otherwise of Theresa May. I

wonder how many people think what

0:15:030:15:06

Grant thinks at the moment?

We will

come back to you and ask you that.

0:15:060:15:10

How many people agree with you? Do

you still have the same view about

0:15:100:15:14

the Prime Minister?

I have said

exactly what I think. You don't have

0:15:140:15:18

to second-guess what I think about

all of this. Nor do I think it is

0:15:180:15:22

worth day by day giving a running

commentary on that. I was heartened

0:15:220:15:29

to see Number 10 and number 11

working together. We can make some

0:15:290:15:32

progress. I think that is a very

good thing. The lesson to be

0:15:320:15:36

learned, just because people have

diverse views, it has not been there

0:15:360:15:39

should be vilified. I think we were

in danger of doing that through the

0:15:390:15:43

whips or Number 10, or what have

you. I'm pleased to see we have a

0:15:430:15:46

more mature attitude coming from

Downing Street.

0:15:460:15:52

You once said you thought you would

make a good Prime Minister yourself,

0:15:520:15:56

do you still think that?

The

question was do you have the

0:15:560:16:00

required ability to make these

decisions and the rest of it. To

0:16:000:16:05

answer that question would be as if

to say I don't think she should be

0:16:050:16:08

doing it but that's not what I think

at all. I think this country

0:16:080:16:13

requires leadership which unites

particularly those involved in the

0:16:130:16:16

Government and I'm pleased that's

what we are now starting to get.

0:16:160:16:21

Grant Shapps, thanks for coming to

talk to us today.

0:16:210:16:26

Now, the Northern Powerhouse

was a phrase coined

0:16:260:16:28

by Philip Hammond's predecessor,

George Osborne.

0:16:280:16:29

But Theresa May has insisted

that she wouldn't be

0:16:290:16:31

pulling the plug on it.

0:16:310:16:32

So how did it fare in

this month's Budget?

0:16:320:16:35

Joining us now from

Salford is the Mayor

0:16:350:16:37

of Greater Manchester,

Andy Burnham.

0:16:370:16:38

Thanks for coming in. I assume you

must be very pleased with the Budget

0:16:380:16:43

and the amount of money delivered

for the Northern Powerhouse?

When I

0:16:430:16:47

came into this job I was clear I

would never play politics for the

0:16:470:16:51

sake of it. There was good news in

this Budget for Manchester, money

0:16:510:16:56

which we need very much, money to

help us tackle rough sleeping.

0:16:560:17:02

Again, a big priority for me. But

overall I have to say it is pretty

0:17:020:17:07

thin pickings for the north of

England. The headline measure on

0:17:070:17:14

stamp duty massively benefits the

South over the north and people here

0:17:140:17:16

who are suffering every day on the

rail system, our clapped-out rail

0:17:160:17:21

system, they didn't get any good

news in terms of electrification or

0:17:210:17:26

improvement of services. All we got

was an -- promise of improvement of

0:17:260:17:35

mobile services.

The Government is

giving new £12 million to help cover

0:17:350:17:41

the cost relating to the Manchester

Arena attack. You must be welcoming

0:17:410:17:47

of that too.

This is difficult

because I'm conscious whenever this

0:17:470:17:50

issue comes up, I'm conscious of the

families. We put our bid in some

0:17:500:17:55

time ago. The cost we have incurred

so far is 17 million and we have a

0:17:550:18:01

further 11 million we will incur

through the inquest process. We have

0:18:010:18:06

been raising that privately and I

haven't gone public on this issue

0:18:060:18:09

until the Prime Minister said last

week we would have the answer, and

0:18:090:18:14

we got that on Friday. It falls some

way short. I cannot see why the

0:18:140:18:19

Government is not meeting our cost

in full. As I said at the beginning,

0:18:190:18:23

I would never make politics out of

this issue but when we got our

0:18:230:18:27

answer and it wasn't good enough I

had to make our position clear. I

0:18:270:18:31

will be replying to the Prime

Minister saying let's sort this out

0:18:310:18:34

properly. I just hope we can now get

a full agreement for all of our

0:18:340:18:40

costs from the Government.

You've

accused the Government before of

0:18:400:18:45

being London centric and ignoring

other parts of the UK. Given that

0:18:450:18:49

you have welcomed of the spending

measures, do you feel that problem

0:18:490:18:55

has been addressed?

Definitely not.

The country is London centric. The

0:18:550:19:00

way transport investment is assessed

by the Treasury favours the areas

0:19:000:19:05

where there is already greater

economic growth. The system is

0:19:050:19:09

biased against the north and that

needs to change. In the Budget we

0:19:090:19:13

got a half-hearted commitment to the

rail system of the future for the

0:19:130:19:18

north of England but Crossrail 2,

the project in London, got more of a

0:19:180:19:23

thumbs up. I'm speaking for people

here who feel this has been very

0:19:230:19:29

unfair over decades. We have a

transport system here that is

0:19:290:19:34

creaking now and it is completely

congested, it isn't working for

0:19:340:19:38

people. The Government needs to grip

that problem much more directly. The

0:19:380:19:42

problem I guess with this Budget was

there's an elephant in the room and

0:19:420:19:47

that is the Brexit Divorce Bill.

There was a feeling for me they were

0:19:470:19:50

not committing money our

infrastructure cause of this thing

0:19:500:19:55

looming behind. To have no mention

of social care, no mention of police

0:19:550:20:00

funding, these were two gaping holes

at the heart of this Budget.

Surely

0:20:000:20:06

you think they should be making a

generous offer for the Brexit

0:20:060:20:11

divorce settlement? You are not

advocating that we walk away without

0:20:110:20:15

paying our dues?

No, my point was a

different one. It looks like the

0:20:150:20:22

Government is holding back on the

investment the north of England

0:20:220:20:25

needs until they have settled this

question, but the challenges facing

0:20:250:20:30

our public services and the

productivity challenge facing the

0:20:300:20:33

north is urgent and it is critical

we get that investment so we can

0:20:330:20:37

rise to the challenge of exit. I saw

this as a Budget where the

0:20:370:20:42

Chancellor was holding back. This

year of all years, to have no

0:20:420:20:49

mention of police security

counterterrorism in the Budget

0:20:490:20:52

seemed a monumental mistake. The

police service here has not got much

0:20:520:20:56

left to give. It is down to the bare

minimum and we need to see the

0:20:560:21:02

Chancellor bringing forward new

funding for the police in the

0:21:020:21:06

December settlement that it's about

to get. To have no mention of it

0:21:060:21:10

just seemed to me to be a major

mistake.

What did you make of Jeremy

0:21:100:21:15

Corbyn's response to the Budget?

I

thought it was passionate. I don't

0:21:150:21:23

think they will deal with the issue

of Universal Credit.

It was

0:21:230:21:29

passionate but was it effective?

I

think so. People want to see people

0:21:290:21:34

speaking with that level of

commitment, genuine concern. The

0:21:340:21:39

dangers are still there with

Universal Credit. Tinkering with the

0:21:390:21:43

waiting times I don't think will

take away the problem that it could

0:21:430:21:46

put more people on our streets,

huddled in doorways. The Government

0:21:460:21:50

needs to give a clear commitment

that we won't see people spiralling

0:21:500:21:55

into debt and then at the risk of

being homeless as a result of

0:21:550:21:59

Universal Credit roll out.

The day

after the Budget John McDonnell got

0:21:590:22:04

in a muddle over his figures on debt

repayment. He must -- you must have

0:22:040:22:10

been cringing as you watched some of

those interviews.

You always get

0:22:100:22:14

these interviews after the Budget. I

have sat in those positions and I

0:22:140:22:20

think it is partly what turns people

off politics. I'm not here

0:22:200:22:24

necessarily to speak for the front

bench, I thought they mounted a good

0:22:240:22:28

critique of the Budget. What I want

is a more wholehearted embrace of

0:22:280:22:34

devolution from both political

parties. The challenge the country

0:22:340:22:37

is facing right now is that we are

to London centric, Brexit is

0:22:370:22:42

looming, we need investment in the

regions and I don't think we can

0:22:420:22:46

bring this power back from Brussels

and then keep it all in Westminster.

0:22:460:22:51

We are already in overcentralised

country and its crucial the power is

0:22:510:22:54

passed down to places like Greater

Manchester and I want to see both

0:22:540:22:59

parties embracing that is part of

the response to the referendum.

I'm

0:22:590:23:03

not asking you to speak for the

Labour front bench, but how did it

0:23:030:23:07

look to you when they were

responding to it, you will know

0:23:070:23:11

Labour are trailing in the polls on

economic competence - did they do

0:23:110:23:16

enough this week to adjust people's

view as to whether or not Labour

0:23:160:23:19

should be put in charge of the

economy?

That is the challenge that

0:23:190:23:24

the Labour Party has to convince the

country it can run a stronger

0:23:240:23:28

economy. The Shadow Chancellor has

put investment in infrastructure

0:23:280:23:33

front and centre of what he's saying

and I think he's absolutely right to

0:23:330:23:37

do that. The country is crying out

for that transport system,

0:23:370:23:50

particularly here in the north that

will allow us to improve

0:23:500:23:52

productivity and they are not

getting that from the current

0:23:520:23:54

Chancellor. Looming questions about

the Divorce Bill, so therefore he

0:23:540:23:56

won't commit to the investment now.

What you got from the Shadow

0:23:560:23:58

Chancellor was a clearer analysis of

what the country needs, and I think

0:23:580:24:02

that's what people want to hear.

Andy Burnham, thank you for coming

0:24:020:24:07

in to talk to us.

0:24:070:24:10

Last week we had a film from Leave

campaigner Gisela Stuart on why

0:24:100:24:13

business will continue to prosper

across Europe after Brexit.

0:24:130:24:16

This week, London and Dublin have

clashed over what will

0:24:160:24:18

happen to the border

between Northern Ireland

0:24:180:24:20

and the Irish Republic -

something the EU says needs to be

0:24:200:24:22

resolved if Brexit negotiations

are to move onto trade next month.

0:24:220:24:25

So today, Irish MEP and vice

president of the European

0:24:250:24:28

Parliament, Mairead McGuiness,

takes us to the border to explain

0:24:280:24:31

why she thinks Brexit

could cause business -

0:24:310:24:36

and the people on the

island of Ireland -

0:24:360:24:38

considerable difficulties.

0:24:380:24:40

This is Dundalk in County Louth,

a town close to the border

0:24:510:24:54

with Northern Ireland,

and close to where I grew up myself.

0:24:540:24:57

Today, I represent the constituency

along that 310 mile border.

0:24:570:25:01

With the Brexit negotiations

ongoing, people along the border

0:25:010:25:03

are troubled by the uncertainty.

0:25:030:25:09

From Dundalk, you can take

a straight road to Northern Ireland

0:25:090:25:12

and there's no stopping.

0:25:120:25:17

At the last count, there are over

300 different road crossings

0:25:170:25:20

between the Republic of Ireland

and Northern Ireland.

0:25:200:25:25

The big question is,

what will change post-Brexit?

0:25:250:25:27

And what do we have to do to keep

the situation as it is today?

0:25:270:25:31

For me, there is only one way,

that the United Kingdom stays

0:25:310:25:34

in the customs union.

0:25:340:25:39

But I know the UK are

determined not to do that.

0:25:390:25:41

I think the negotiations

are struggling.

0:25:410:25:43

Not too far from the border

crossing, just south,

0:25:430:25:45

I caught up with beef farmer Jim

Murray.

0:25:450:25:47

That's the actual border

itself, just ahead.

0:25:470:25:48

The actual border is about

half a mile past that.

0:25:480:25:51

Today it is frictionless

and seamless, and invisible.

0:25:510:25:54

Totally.

0:25:540:25:55

Do think it's going to stay

that way after Brexit?

0:25:550:25:58

Well, I hope it will stay like that,

because were used to this.

0:25:580:26:01

Well, I hope it will stay like that,

because we're used to this.

0:26:010:26:04

I come from a time when I remember

that you couldn't actually go down

0:26:040:26:07

that road to access,

to do some business

0:26:070:26:09

in the north, because the road

was actually blocked.

0:26:090:26:11

Have you been reassured by any

of the political statements around

0:26:110:26:14

the border in particular,

basically saying that things

0:26:140:26:16

will stay as they are?

0:26:160:26:17

I haven't, really, because seamless

and frictionless borders, you know,

0:26:170:26:20

to me it is an oxymoron.

0:26:200:26:23

Because it's still a border.

0:26:230:26:24

I also visited George McArdle.

0:26:240:26:26

He's been running a haulage

company for the last 50

0:26:260:26:29

years with experience

of crossing the border.

0:26:290:26:31

What are you worried about?

0:26:310:26:34

We're worried about

customs and delays.

0:26:340:26:38

We'd be delayed a couple of hours.

0:26:380:26:44

Would there be costs

involved for you?

0:26:440:26:49

We'd be paying drivers,

the trucks lying idle.

0:26:490:26:50

People say that, while we have

peace, it is fragile.

0:26:500:26:53

It's very fragile.

0:26:530:26:54

Any little thing could upset

the whole thing again,

0:26:540:26:56

and we wouldn't like to see Brexit

be the cause of it.

0:26:560:26:59

We are moving from the Republic

of Ireland, just across the border,

0:27:050:27:08

and I'm now in Northern Ireland.

0:27:080:27:14

It was very smooth,

seamless and frictionless.

0:27:140:27:16

I suppose that's what we want to see

continue in a post-Brexit era.

0:27:160:27:20

Just across the border

into Northern Ireland, I caught

0:27:200:27:22

up with Des Fraser,

who gave me his view

0:27:220:27:25

about why the United Kingdom

decided to leave Europe.

0:27:250:27:27

First of all it was the cost.

0:27:270:27:30

I also felt, particularly the likes

of the slurry ban, for agriculture,

0:27:300:27:33

I don't think there should be

somebody in Brussels

0:27:330:27:35

telling us when we can

or can't spread our slurry.

0:27:350:27:37

What effect do you think Brexit

would have on the border?

0:27:370:27:40

Do you think we're going to be able

to avoid a hard border?

0:27:400:27:43

Getting a solution is

the difficulty, there's no doubt.

0:27:430:27:45

There's a harmonious

relationship, you know,

0:27:450:27:48

with Europe and Switzerland,

Europe and Norway, without a hard

0:27:480:27:51

border in existence.

0:27:510:27:54

It's very clear that people on both

sides of the border want the special

0:27:540:27:57

circumstances on the island

of Ireland to be taken into account

0:27:570:27:59

in the Brexit negotiations.

0:27:590:28:03

But can it be and will it be done

in time for the December council?

0:28:030:28:07

Will we resolve the conundrum

and square the circle

0:28:070:28:10

of an invisible border on the island

of Ireland post-Brexit?

0:28:100:28:15

And Mairead McGuiness

joins us now from Dublin.

0:28:190:28:22

The former Northern Ireland

Secretary and leading Brexiteer,

0:28:220:28:27

Owen Paterson, is in Shropshire.

0:28:270:28:32

Thank you both for joining us. Owen

Paterson, Mariad laid out her case,

0:28:320:28:46

does the Government have an answer

to this?

Yes, there's already an

0:28:460:28:52

existing border. I've been going

there since ten years ago. There's a

0:28:520:29:01

currency board, now a euro sterling

border, a VAT border, a corporation

0:29:010:29:07

tax border, and in all the time I've

been going to Northern Ireland and

0:29:070:29:11

the public, not a single person ever

said this presents a problem.

...

0:29:110:29:24

Physical border.

Through the

referendum campaign, we made it

0:29:240:29:32

clear there are electronic measures

and techniques, existing techniques

0:29:320:29:36

such as authorised economic

operators and this can all be made

0:29:360:29:40

to work if there is a will on the

border. It has a small amount of

0:29:400:29:46

trade. Northern Ireland has 80% of

its trade to the rest of the UK,

0:29:460:29:55

only 5% goes over the border. It

would be very easy to license

0:29:550:30:01

tankers that take milk over the

border as authorising economic

0:30:010:30:05

operators that go over every day,

they would be recognised on a

0:30:050:30:09

regular basis, all invoices done

electronically. It is a very small

0:30:090:30:13

problem if there is a will.

Let's

bring in Mairead McGuiness. Owen

0:30:130:30:25

Paterson sounds like he's saying

you're exaggerating the problem is

0:30:250:30:27

here.

0:30:270:30:31

I've listened to it several times

and not heard anything new. He is

0:30:310:30:34

right that where there is a will

there is a way. This is a serious

0:30:340:30:37

matter for my constituency, for the

island of Ireland and Europe. We

0:30:370:30:41

have not found the way. To bring up

separate currencies, OK, it is part

0:30:410:30:47

of the situation, but we don't have

a border in the visible sense. When

0:30:470:30:52

the United Kingdom remains

determined to leave the customs

0:30:520:30:54

union and single market, the milk

that he refers to produced in

0:30:540:30:58

Northern Ireland and processed in

the Republic of Ireland comes from a

0:30:580:31:02

country that is a third country, no

longer a member of the European

0:31:020:31:06

Union. There are many issues about

that. I know the fathers in Northern

0:31:060:31:10

Ireland are deeply concerned about

the consequences for them as daily

0:31:100:31:13

farmers. -- dairy farmers. They are

troubled by his insistence that he

0:31:130:31:19

wants to scrap many of the rules

around the food industry and

0:31:190:31:23

agriculture. He wants to scrap

support for agriculture. Even

0:31:230:31:28

farmers that voted Leave, they are

now quite perplexed about what they

0:31:280:31:32

are hearing from the UK side, not

just around the issue of the border,

0:31:320:31:36

but on the wider issues of trade.

That is where this problem really

0:31:360:31:41

lies, and where we will have great

difficulty. I am more troubled this

0:31:410:31:45

morning, because I read a quote from

Arlene Fox the trade Secretary,

0:31:450:31:50

saying that the border issue and the

Irish issue will not be solved until

0:31:500:31:54

the final stage, until we reach a

decision on trade. I hope the United

0:31:540:31:58

Kingdom is not holding the situation

to ransom in these negotiations. It

0:31:580:32:02

is far too serious and too critical.

Let's go to Owen Paterson.

May I

0:32:020:32:09

finish this point?

We now have a

situation on the island of Ireland

0:32:090:32:14

and Northern Ireland where we have

built piece and we are hoping to

0:32:140:32:16

maintain that. I believe that we

will and we can. Unfortunately,

0:32:160:32:19

there is no assembly, there are

divisions between the communities

0:32:190:32:24

but they are now becoming deeper. We

have to work really hard to avoid

0:32:240:32:28

that. Part of that is to make sure,

as Theresa May said on Friday, she

0:32:280:32:33

wants the situation to remain the

same as it is today, post-Brexit.

0:32:330:32:37

The only way to achieve that is to

stay in the customs union and single

0:32:370:32:41

market. That is the solution.

A lot

for you to pick up on. Let's start

0:32:410:32:46

with the idea that it might be

possible to come up with a final

0:32:460:32:50

solution to the Irish border

question after we have seen the

0:32:500:32:53

shape of a trade deal. EU made it

clear we cannot talk about trade

0:32:530:32:57

until the Irish border has been

settled?

Saw those comments were

0:32:570:33:02

completely ridiculous and they have

been repeated when we have done

0:33:020:33:07

interviews before. -- some of those

comments. The idea that Northern

0:33:070:33:10

Ireland will be taken out of the UK

is absurd. 78 million people voted

0:33:100:33:16

to leave the European Union, they

voted to leave the customs union and

0:33:160:33:20

the single market, and the

jurisdiction of the ECJ. The idea

0:33:200:33:25

that politicians in Dublin can

somehow start to force Northern

0:33:250:33:28

Ireland to stay, against the will of

a significant number of citizens,

0:33:280:33:32

within an arrangement that will not

serve the economic and you're

0:33:320:33:35

politically, it is really very

dangerous. Let's talk about the

0:33:350:33:38

peace process, I can't think of

anything more destabilising... This

0:33:380:33:43

is a really important point. I want

to make this point. It is really

0:33:430:33:48

very irresponsible politicians to

make a statement like that, saying

0:33:480:33:50

they are going to force and

blackmail the UK into getting a

0:33:500:33:56

special status for Northern Ireland

outside the rest of the UK. That is

0:33:560:33:59

a really dangerous thing to do and

they should stop doing it. There are

0:33:590:34:03

perfectly sensible, technical

solutions to the problem of the

0:34:030:34:06

border. We currently have complete

conformity of standards. Products

0:34:060:34:09

going over the border go on a very

regular basis. It is a tiny part of

0:34:090:34:15

trade between the Republic of

Ireland and the UK. It is a really

0:34:150:34:19

tiny part of trade between Northern

Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

0:34:190:34:23

and it is solvable by modern

methods. The idea we will go back to

0:34:230:34:28

old customs, with customs officials

in bridges, sticking a ladle into a

0:34:280:34:34

couple trickle, it is out of date.

Less than 2% of goods are inspected

0:34:340:34:44

physically. This is completely out

of date. -- sticking a ladle into a

0:34:440:34:52

tub of back-to-back.

I am disturbed

by some of those comments, to

0:34:520:35:05

describe that view as ridiculous is

not helpful. To suggest it is

0:35:050:35:09

blackmailing is appalling. The UK,

the Irish at the European Union know

0:35:090:35:13

we have had a difficult history. We

have worked hard politically and

0:35:130:35:19

financially to make sure we move

forward and we have. If the United

0:35:190:35:28

Kingdom does trade agreements with

other partners and goods are flowing

0:35:280:35:31

into Northern Ireland, we have to

watch and know where they are coming

0:35:310:35:34

from. That will affect businesses in

Northern Ireland, as it will affect

0:35:340:35:38

businesses in the European Union. I

dislike this notion, and it is

0:35:380:35:42

happening and happened again in this

studio this morning, that the United

0:35:420:35:47

Kingdom and Owen Paterson would say

if borders go up, it is our fault.

0:35:470:35:50

Let's be frank, because we should

be, we are neighbours and good

0:35:500:35:53

friends. The European Union, 28

today, we respect the democratic

0:35:530:36:00

decision of the United Kingdom to

leave, but I would ask you to

0:36:000:36:03

reflect on the reality of Northern

Ireland, where people voted to stay

0:36:030:36:07

because they knew the consequences

for them. Regrettably, where the

0:36:070:36:10

referendum was taking place, there

was no talk about the consequences

0:36:100:36:13

referendum was taking place, there

was no talk about the consequences

0:36:130:36:13

for Northern Ireland or the island

of Ireland. We are left in a

0:36:130:36:19

situation where, retrospectively, we

are trying to find solutions. If it

0:36:190:36:22

upsets your guest at the studio, I

repeated anyway, we have to be frank

0:36:220:36:27

with one another. The way to stay

the same on the island of Ireland,

0:36:270:36:31

as it is today, post-Brexit, is for

at least the United Kingdom to take

0:36:310:36:35

the red off the table, to stay the

customs union and single market

0:36:350:36:39

gives us what we have today, and

invisible border, seamless trade,

0:36:390:36:44

and also building at helping to keep

those relationships. The good

0:36:440:36:49

relationship was helped in no small

part because Ireland, the United

0:36:490:36:54

Kingdom and 26 other countries can

sit around a table. They sit in the

0:36:540:36:58

European Parliament, in the council,

and we do business because we got to

0:36:580:37:01

know each other. We have formal and

informal talks and relationships. We

0:37:010:37:06

should really strive to continue

that. It is in the interests of the

0:37:060:37:10

people we spoke to on the border,

those that wanted the United Kingdom

0:37:100:37:13

to stay, and those that might have

had a different view.

Owen Paterson,

0:37:130:37:17

can you see that this can be

resolved before we know the shape of

0:37:170:37:27

a final trade deal? The idea that

the Irish question needs to be

0:37:270:37:30

settled before we move on to talking

about future trading or relations?

0:37:300:37:32

Is that possible?

As somebody who

spent time a shadow and Secretary of

0:37:320:37:37

State, going very regularly to

Dublin, getting the main political

0:37:370:37:44

parties in on that, I appreciate the

good level of relations between the

0:37:440:37:47

UK and the Republic of Ireland, the

enormous benefits to so many people.

0:37:470:37:51

Therefore, I am absolutely dismayed

at the talk this morning, which is

0:37:510:37:57

completely unrealistic, expecting

Northern Ireland to be given a

0:37:570:37:59

separate status, outside,

effectively, the United Kingdom. 87%

0:37:590:38:04

of sales, purely on economics, are

within the UK. Henri

0:38:040:38:09

-- on economic grounds, it is crazy.

It is very dangerous. There was a

0:38:100:38:14

referendum at the time of the

Belfast agreement. There was

0:38:140:38:18

overwhelming support for it to stay

in the UK. All of the polls show

0:38:180:38:24

that Northern Ireland will stay very

firmly within the UK.

Very quickly,

0:38:240:38:29

then, one last point?

I hate to say,

but Owen may not be listening to

0:38:290:38:38

what I said. I said the United

Kingdom would stay in the customs

0:38:380:38:42

union and single market, I did not

say Northern Ireland should separate

0:38:420:38:44

and stay in, although that is a

potential solution, it is not the

0:38:440:38:50

one I said this morning. Please

respond to what I have said.

We

0:38:500:38:54

don't have time to respond to any of

that. It is an issue we will return

0:38:540:38:58

to. Thank you very much.

0:38:580:39:00

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

in Northern Ireland.

0:39:180:39:20

A standing ovation for

Arlene Foster at the party

0:39:200:39:22

conference after a roller-coaster

year for the DUP and its leader.

0:39:220:39:25

But what did outside

0:39:250:39:26

observers make of it?

0:39:260:39:27

With me are the journalist

Amanda Ferguson and Professors Pete

0:39:270:39:29

Shirlow and Rick Wilford.

0:39:290:39:35

The DUP leader, Arlene Foster,

has warned that time is running out

0:39:350:39:38

to do a deal to restore

power-sharing before direct rule

0:39:380:39:40

ministers are brought in.

0:39:400:39:43

She also told the DUP conference

that Unionists have nothing to fear

0:39:430:39:46

from the Irish language and that

Republicans need to start

0:39:460:39:48

respecting British culture.

0:39:480:39:50

We'll hear more from the DUP

leader in a moment -

0:39:500:39:52

but first our Political

Correspondent, Enda McClafferty,

0:39:520:39:54

has this report.

0:39:540:40:01

Whatever the outfit

Arlene Foster has become

0:40:010:40:04

a master of transformation.

0:40:040:40:05

She managed to turn the DUP's worst

0:40:050:40:07

year into their best.

0:40:070:40:10

And she's now got one billion

reasons to celebrate and a deputy

0:40:100:40:12

singing her praises.

0:40:120:40:18

Those who thought you could be

browbeaten or high-rise total

0:40:180:40:22

politics did not reckon on the will

and resolve of a strong Unionist

0:40:220:40:26

woman from County Fermanagh.

0:40:260:40:29

She is for the DUP a keeper

0:40:290:40:31

in more ways than one.

0:40:310:40:37

One or two Micro of my colleagues,

date might have a little trouble,

0:40:370:40:41

but I am content with my.

She is the

goalkeeper. She is keeping the goal.

0:40:410:40:49

But the picture at Stormont

0:40:490:40:50

is very different.

0:40:500:40:51

Last year Arlene Foster never once

mentioned Sinn Fein in her speech.

0:40:510:40:54

But she found space this year.

0:40:540:40:58

It is time that Sinn Fein started to

respect our British culture. For too

0:40:580:41:03

on behalf of all nothing but disdain

and disrespect for the National

0:41:030:41:09

flag, the Royal Family, the Armed

Forces, but just symbols, the

0:41:090:41:14

constitutional reality, and the very

name of this country. We are up for

0:41:140:41:18

respect.

0:41:180:41:21

And that struck a chord

0:41:210:41:22

with this Irish language speaking

0:41:220:41:23

DUP member from Dublin.

0:41:230:41:25

Does he think his party

needs to support a stand

0:41:250:41:27

alone Irish Language

Act?

0:41:270:41:33

The DUP is happy to accommodate

Irish because in Northern Ireland

0:41:330:41:38

and further afield. It is very sad

that one political party is using my

0:41:380:41:43

first language as the weapon to

destroy progress in politics of

0:41:430:41:49

Northern Ireland.

In your opinion is

the DUP a warm House for Irish

0:41:490:41:56

language speakers?

Eight very warm

House for me, warmer than any other

0:41:560:41:59

party.

0:41:590:42:00

And outside we found another one.

0:42:000:42:04

Are they not asking you questions?

In Irish?

Try something in Irish. I

0:42:060:42:13

would not know what to say.

0:42:130:42:23

She wasn't the only

conference first timer.

0:42:300:42:32

The Tory party's

0:42:320:42:37

Chief Whip was there,

and yes we did ask about getting

0:42:370:42:39

the rest of our promised £1 billion.

0:42:390:42:41

With or without

0:42:410:42:42

an executive.

0:42:420:42:47

The deal has been done. That

Agreement is transparent, in the

0:42:470:42:53

public domain, the Conservative

Party and the DUP are happy with how

0:42:530:42:57

that is going. We will deliver

conservative values of the

0:42:570:43:00

Conservative Government will deliver

on that Agreement.

Will money still

0:43:000:43:04

come if there is no power-sharing

executive?

That is implicit in my

0:43:040:43:08

answer, we have done a deal, we will

deliver on it.

It is clear Arlene

0:43:080:43:16

Foster and the DUP are relishing

their role as power brokers at

0:43:160:43:20

Westminster. But while they may have

some friends in high places now, she

0:43:200:43:24

is still a leader without a

parliament. And there is no sign but

0:43:240:43:28

is going to change any time soon.

0:43:280:43:31

Enda McClafferty with that report

from the DUP conference.

0:43:310:43:34

Well I spoke to Arlene Foster just

after she delivered that address

0:43:340:43:36

and I asked her what she would say

was the big idea in her speech.

0:43:360:43:45

What I wanted to concentrate on was

the fact that we see ourselves as

0:43:450:43:50

the People's party, the party that

represents people, but we want to

0:43:500:43:54

get things done, get more jobs,

better infrastructure, our health

0:43:540:44:00

service, have a better education

seven. I was talking about the fact

0:44:000:44:03

that they want to be the party for

Northern Ireland, and the People's

0:44:030:44:07

party. That was the theme. I touched

on other issues. I touched on

0:44:070:44:11

Brexit. And of course the year that

we have had. We covered quite a lot

0:44:110:44:15

of ground but that was really the

thing.

But you accept there are a

0:44:150:44:22

lot people who would have watched

that speech and watching this

0:44:220:44:24

interview who do not share your

definition of Northern Irish nest.

0:44:240:44:26

They would see they have more in

common with the Republic of Ireland

0:44:260:44:30

than people and their rest of the

UK. They do not see people through

0:44:300:44:35

the same lens that you see them.

There is a diverse range of opinions

0:44:350:44:42

in Northern Ireland. Perhaps you are

interested in the union for

0:44:420:44:46

political reasons, some people are

interested for cultural or social

0:44:460:44:49

reasons, and there are those who

want to be in the union for economic

0:44:490:44:52

reasons. Whatever your reasons for

wanting to stay within the UK, it is

0:44:520:44:56

very clear, look at all the service,

people want to remain with them the

0:44:560:44:59

UK. There are those who have an

aspiration to be in a united

0:44:590:45:03

Ireland, but it is

0:45:030:45:14

legitimate, but for the union, and

to see two people, your future is

0:45:210:45:24

best within the UK. The sixth

largest economy in the world. We are

0:45:240:45:27

going to look forward after Brexit

to the opportunities available to

0:45:270:45:29

us. And we could be a very different

place in the future if we put our

0:45:290:45:32

minds to it.

That majority of people

in Northern Ireland who do not see

0:45:320:45:35

Brexit about me, they do not see it

as an opportunity, BC it as a

0:45:350:45:38

serious obstacle, something that

when it comes into effect the year

0:45:380:45:41

after next May impact negatively on

them and their families.

And they

0:45:410:45:45

are entitled to hold that view. From

my point of view, I think it is a

0:45:450:45:50

tremendous opportunity. There will

be short-term challenges but you can

0:45:500:45:53

either meet a challenge looking at

it in a negative way or meet it in a

0:45:530:45:57

positive way to look for

opportunities in the future. Any

0:45:570:46:00

business people I have spoken to

over this past member of months have

0:46:000:46:03

all been saying we may not have

faltered in relation to this but we

0:46:030:46:07

accepted that is going to happen,

therefore we need to make

0:46:070:46:20

sure the best deal for Northern

Ireland, in that context it is very

0:46:230:46:26

important that we do not have any

barriers to trade with the rest of

0:46:260:46:29

the UK. We talked about that in the

speech, 72% of the trade out of

0:46:290:46:32

Belfast is to Great Britain. We need

to make sure there are no barriers

0:46:320:46:34

in the future to allow that to

continue.

You are in a relationship

0:46:340:46:37

with the Conservative Party at the

moment, your ten MPs are keeping

0:46:370:46:39

Theresa May in ten Downing St, a

number of high-profile Tories

0:46:390:46:42

attended the conference, but then we

had Kenneth Clarke last week saying

0:46:420:46:46

he does not see how the Tories can

deliver what they say they will

0:46:460:46:51

deliver in terms of a frictionless

border for Northern Ireland and the

0:46:510:46:57

Republic of Ireland, unless Northern

Ireland remains in the customs union

0:46:570:46:59

and the single market. He said,

speaking as a conservative and

0:46:590:47:05

Unionist, the border should be in

the middle of the Irish Sea. It is

0:47:050:47:10

not just nationalists, people in the

Republic of Ireland that do not

0:47:100:47:13

shoot your rose tinted view, they

might say, of the Brexit challenge.

0:47:130:47:20

I know the media find that the

vehicle to for positivity in

0:47:200:47:24

relation to Brexit but I also

understand Peter Lilley was on your

0:47:240:47:29

programme and he is a conservative

and he was positive about the

0:47:290:47:32

relationship with the DUP. Democracy

is a wonderful thing, people have

0:47:320:47:36

different views, from my point of

view, it is important that we have a

0:47:360:47:42

vision for unionism and that we

drive forward the positivity in the

0:47:420:47:46

future.

Where do you stand in your

relationship at the moment with Leo

0:47:460:47:53

Varadkar? Do you think that the

arrival of Leo Varadkar in the

0:47:530:47:57

office of Taoiseach has made the

relationship between UK negotiators

0:47:570:48:02

and Republic of Ireland

administration more difficult? Your

0:48:020:48:07

relationship as leader of DUP, has

become more difficult since Leo

0:48:070:48:10

Varadkar has taken up that job?

Our

religion ship has not become more

0:48:100:48:17

difficult, I was delighted that he

came down to Eniskillen for

0:48:170:48:22

Remembrance Day. I appreciate that

he did that. He has a different view

0:48:220:48:29

in relation to Brexit, he is there

to represent his own country. I am

0:48:290:48:34

here to represent Northern Ireland.

We will have those to Scotians. I am

0:48:340:48:39

disappointed by some of their

commentary and some of the

0:48:390:48:42

projecting of aspirations for a

united Ireland on to what should be

0:48:420:48:47

European Union exits negotiations,

but that is a matter for them, I am

0:48:470:48:50

trying to move to the next phase of

the negotiations so that we can get

0:48:500:48:54

into the detail of what the border

will look like because until we

0:48:540:48:58

moved to those trade negotiations we

will not have the detail, and it

0:48:580:49:02

will become cart before the horse.

Do you regret saying that Leo

0:49:020:49:08

Varadkar was reckless in some

comments about Brexit? And that

0:49:080:49:13

playing with the future of Northern

Ireland in the way he has handled

0:49:130:49:16

this talks which was that clumsy on

your part?

Absolutely not. It has

0:49:160:49:21

been shown to be the case over the

last week, their rhetoric has been

0:49:210:49:24

stepped up as the week has gone on.

I understand, Brexit has been a huge

0:49:240:49:30

shock to people in the Republic of

Ireland, I accept that. But they

0:49:300:49:34

should be trying to work with us in

Northern Ireland and the entire UK

0:49:340:49:38

to try and find a solution because

it is happening. I do recall very

0:49:380:49:43

well one of my first meetings with

Leo Varadkar, it was about he did

0:49:430:49:48

not want Brexit to happen, we had to

disabuse him of that position. Their

0:49:480:49:52

next meeting was about staying in

the customs union, we had to say, we

0:49:520:49:57

are leaving the customs union, the

single market, otherwise Brexit will

0:49:570:50:01

not be put in place. There is a

sense of shock in the Republic of

0:50:010:50:05

Ireland and I can understand that

but instead of megaphone diplomacy

0:50:050:50:10

and being reckless with Northern

Ireland we should be engaging and

0:50:100:50:12

finding a way forward that will mean

for the Republic of Ireland,

0:50:120:50:19

Northern Ireland, the rest of the UK

that we can move into the future in

0:50:190:50:22

a positive way.

You are wanting him

to roll over and see everything

0:50:220:50:28

through D UPI 's?

That would be

lovely, if you could arrange that,

0:50:280:50:32

that would be wonderful.

He speaks

to people in the Republic of

0:50:320:50:38

Ireland, Brexit potentially is a

huge problem for people in the

0:50:380:50:41

south. He is not happy about it, he

does not think there is anything

0:50:410:50:45

good about it and he will state his

case. He will keep saying this is

0:50:450:50:50

not good for us, not good for the

European Union, he does not think it

0:50:500:50:54

is good for the people in Northern

Ireland, he will keep saying it

0:50:540:50:58

however many times it takes for

people to start listening.

And I

0:50:580:51:01

will keep seeing what I had to say.

Two can play at that game. It is

0:51:010:51:07

that simple? No compromise from your

point of view? A special arrangement

0:51:070:51:16

for Northern Ireland?

No, we are in

union with the UK, we hear a lot

0:51:160:51:21

about the Belfast Agreement, people

trying to cherry pick bits of that

0:51:210:51:25

to justify their stance, the

fundamental issue is the principle

0:51:250:51:29

of consent which says that until the

people of Northern Ireland 's decide

0:51:290:51:35

otherwise we are an integral part of

the United Kingdom. Politics,

0:51:350:51:42

Society, cultural reasons, and

importantly, for economic reasons.

0:51:420:51:46

Every business that I visit has said

to me very clearly they do not want

0:51:460:51:50

a border down the Irish Sea, which

is something that bizarrely the

0:51:500:51:54

Republic of Ireland has been talking

about. That is self harm for the

0:51:540:51:59

protection, they should want to keep

up on the trading relationship with

0:51:590:52:02

Great Britain because that is their

biggest market. They should want to

0:52:020:52:07

keep that relationship open as much

as possible.

People in the Republic

0:52:070:52:11

of Ireland do not accept that, they

do not accept your figures. A figure

0:52:110:52:21

of 60% export has been quartered for

Republic of Ireland exports to UK,

0:52:210:52:26

leading economists in the UK say it

is less than 60%, something in the

0:52:260:52:30

region of 15%.

The Republic of

Ireland saying that Great Britain is

0:52:300:52:37

not an important market?

Not

necessarily the biggest market.

I do

0:52:370:52:44

not need to poetry anything for the

Republic of Ireland, I am simply

0:52:440:52:48

saying they should not try to cut

off one of the biggest markets, I am

0:52:480:52:53

not going to cherry pick around

that, I do not have a horse in the

0:52:530:52:57

race, I am concerned about the fact

that our biggest market, this is a

0:52:570:53:02

fact, talk to anybody in business in

Northern Ireland, our biggest market

0:53:020:53:07

is Great Britain, it would be

absolute madness and a complete

0:53:070:53:10

dereliction of my duty as a publicly

presented to have if I did not try

0:53:100:53:13

to stop the border in the Irish Sea.

Let us talk about Stormont and the

0:53:130:53:18

situation there. Are we heading

towards Di recruit in the short

0:53:180:53:22

term? Is that inevitable.

I hope it

is not. I talked a lot about

0:53:220:53:32

devolution and why I think

devolution is best for Northern

0:53:320:53:34

Ireland. We have issues going on

around the issue of a possible

0:53:340:53:41

general election if a general

election is called. And forcibly I

0:53:410:53:44

believe that Sinn Fein will then

focus on the Dublin and Republic of

0:53:440:53:48

Ireland elections and they will not

be focused on Stormont. We will meet

0:53:480:53:52

the Secretary of State on Monday

again as he has asked. You will

0:53:520:53:55

recall that Sinn Fein met the talks

after he brought in the budget for

0:53:550:53:59

Northern Ireland. I hope that they

will re-engage and try and bring

0:53:590:54:03

devolution back again to Northern

Ireland.

Are you optimistic that you

0:54:030:54:07

will be back as First Minister in

months rather than years?

You have

0:54:070:54:14

to be an optimist in Northern

Ireland politics and politics is all

0:54:140:54:18

about the possibility of making

things work and I want to seek

0:54:180:54:21

Stormont working again.

0:54:210:54:23

Arlene Foster speaking

to me straight after

0:54:230:54:25

yesterday's conference speech.

0:54:250:54:26

Let's hear what my guests of the day

make of what she had to say.

0:54:260:54:32

Amanda Ferguson, you were at the

conference, you spoke to some of the

0:54:320:54:37

delegates, how do you sum up the

mood of the occasion?

It was quite

0:54:370:54:42

subdued and team. DUP was conscious

of the eyes of Great Britain being

0:54:420:54:48

on the conference this year because

of their arrangement with the

0:54:480:54:52

Tories. It was very much efforts

made to make sure that more

0:54:520:55:00

colourful characters had a lower

profile this year. Arlene Foster has

0:55:000:55:04

written to the head of the EU 27 to

outline her position. She really

0:55:040:55:12

beside the point that DUP will not

accept any internal borders. What I

0:55:120:55:16

found interesting in the speech of

Nigel Dodds was it was very much to

0:55:160:55:22

emphasise support for a Arlene

Foster, a lot of warmth and

0:55:220:55:26

positivity around Brexit from the

delicates. -- delegates. He spoke of

0:55:260:55:34

issues about demographics that

Unionists have to be conscious of.

0:55:340:55:39

The DUP are starting to do what they

should have been doing for a long

0:55:390:55:43

time, focusing on the benefits of

the union, just as Republicans are

0:55:430:55:47

catching up with the idea of selling

what a united Ireland means.

Any

0:55:470:55:53

surprises? Not at all. On one level

her speech was quite conciliatory.

0:55:530:56:03

It was not just a gimmick about the

Irish language. The collapse of the

0:56:030:56:09

Assembly and the talks are making

them realise that political

0:56:090:56:17

dominance, each had to define what

was unionism. It is economic,

0:56:170:56:26

logical, cultural. It is interesting

that they are attempting a modern

0:56:260:56:32

idea of what unionism is. They can

hint at issues, respect for

0:56:320:56:41

everybody, tolerance, well-being,

but can they go into equality

0:56:410:56:50

rights?

Several parts of the speech

when Arlene Foster trained her fire

0:56:500:56:58

on Sinn Fein but at the same time

she made it clear she wants back

0:56:580:57:01

into a devolved executive with Sinn

Fein as soon as possible, is that a

0:57:010:57:07

contradiction?

She can take a swipe

at front of the party faithful, at

0:57:070:57:13

the same time expressing a

preference for devolution. Some

0:57:130:57:20

aspects of the speech, and the

speech of Nigel Dodds, implied they

0:57:200:57:27

are softening their base for the

possibility of direct rule. She

0:57:270:57:36

needed to demonstrate to her base

that she was still tough and

0:57:360:57:41

prepared to stand up to Sinn Fein

but one of the important themes is

0:57:410:57:47

that unionism, because that is

confronted now with Sinn Fein in the

0:57:470:57:53

north, bristling with enthusiasm and

confidence, unionism needs to start

0:57:530:58:01

thinking proactively about what

offer they can make. If she is going

0:58:010:58:04

to see that DUP is the party of the

people we have got to come up with a

0:58:040:58:08

formula of unionism that can appeal

more than it currently does.

How

0:58:080:58:15

secure is she in her leadership

position as the emphasis shifts

0:58:150:58:20

towards Westminster?

The difficulty,

DUP needs that more than Sinn Fein.

0:58:200:58:32

Nigel Dodds made clear the strength

of her character, but she will be

0:58:320:58:42

leading the party for a long time.

A

quick word on her security?

I think

0:58:420:58:48

she is incredibly secure. She is

very much respected within her

0:58:480:58:53

party. She is seen as a victim, and

in the sectarian politics that we

0:58:530:59:06

have, nothing better than being seen

as a victim.

0:59:060:59:09

Let's

0:59:090:59:10

pause

0:59:100:59:11

for a moment and take

0:59:110:59:12

a look back at the political

0:59:120:59:14

week in 60 seconds -

with Gareth Gordon.

0:59:140:59:18

Gerry Adams and I said that he was

stepping down prompted strong words.

0:59:180:59:24

I could not forgive him for that.

Theresa May met DUP and Sinn Fein

0:59:240:59:30

and told them to get back to talks.

We are not underestimating the

0:59:300:59:34

challenges that a way forward can be

found.

The Chancellor's budget

0:59:340:59:39

brought more money for Northern

Ireland but with most of it

0:59:390:59:43

earmarked for big projects

department still find themselves

0:59:430:59:46

squeezed for a cash. Suggestions of

an amnesty for former security force

0:59:460:59:51

personnel proved divisive.

We are

opposed to amnesty.

That is a

0:59:510:59:56

statute of flirtations.

The Unionist

peer was accused of racism after

0:59:561:00:06

labelling Leo Varadkar as the Indian

in a treat.

1:00:061:00:11

A political row.

1:00:111:00:17

Gareth Gordon - and let's have

a final word with my studio guests.

1:00:171:00:23

Interesting contribution from the

Irish EU emission in The Observer,

1:00:231:00:30

Phil Hogan.

Upping the ante?

Reinforcing what Leo Varadkar has

1:00:301:00:35

already said. A guarantee there will

be no hard border. The Commissioner

1:00:351:00:44

reaffirming the position. People are

trying to dance around this issue of

1:00:441:00:53

the border but it is not placated

and the idea there is an electronic

1:00:531:00:59

fix, I think is pie in the sky.

Liam

Fox, speaking this morning, he says

1:00:591:01:07

we need to get this matter sorted

out otherwise we cannot move other

1:01:071:01:12

issues. He says December the 14th

deal will run for months, not weeks.

1:01:121:01:22

None of the political actors are

calling for a hard border, the

1:01:221:01:25

idling is over how the soft border

is worked. What is interesting about

1:01:251:01:34

the intervention by Taoiseach is the

presence of Sinn Fein in the

1:01:341:01:42

Republic is making him take this

issue very seriously because they

1:01:421:01:47

cannot be seen as the party that

stood by and allowed a hard border

1:01:471:01:51

which is not going to happen anyway.

One of the things you need in a

1:01:511:01:58

discussion is a problem, and to have

Arlene Foster and Taoiseach arguing

1:01:581:02:02

points out that there is a hard

border there is a problem, there is

1:02:021:02:07

stage managing to make this an

aborted issue.

We are looking into

1:02:071:02:13

the possibility of an election in

the south. This could be crucial.

1:02:131:02:21

Realistically, even if there was an

election.

1:02:211:02:25

That's it.

1:02:251:02:26

Welcome back.

1:02:301:02:32

Now, they play big in Westminster -

but does the rest of the country

1:02:321:02:35

notice big set-piece political

moments like this week's Budget?

1:02:351:02:38

Ellie took our not-so-scientific

barometer of public opinion,

1:02:381:02:39

the Moodbox, to Yorkshire.

1:02:391:02:42

Two things happened this week

to make us think about spending

1:02:451:02:47

and feel like we've got more pounds

in our pockets.

1:02:471:02:50

But which was more important?

1:02:501:02:55

That's a question we're asking

shoppers here in Leeds today.

1:02:551:02:57

What matters more?

1:02:571:02:58

Is it Black Friday or the Budget?

1:02:581:03:00

Black Friday, because

you're out there, you're

1:03:031:03:05

going to get a bargain.

1:03:051:03:06

It's a nice build-up

towards Christmas and the Budget,

1:03:061:03:08

they take away from you.

1:03:081:03:10

This is a more fun day than watching

Philip Hammond doing the Budget?

1:03:101:03:13

Definitely!

1:03:131:03:15

Is not going to spoil our day today.

1:03:151:03:17

# Cos we are living

in a material world

1:03:171:03:20

# And I am a material girl...

1:03:201:03:23

The Budget matters for first-time

buyers, with the stamp duty.

1:03:231:03:25

My daughter is buying.

1:03:251:03:26

Do you think Black Friday

would put more money

1:03:261:03:30

than the Chancellor?

1:03:301:03:33

Probably.

1:03:331:03:35

Probably.

1:03:351:03:36

I suppose it affects everyone,

it's more important.

1:03:361:03:37

And Black Friday is just

quite commercialised.

1:03:371:03:39

I suppose I'm here shopping!

1:03:391:03:41

The Budget is more important, think.

1:03:411:03:43

If they get the Budget wrong,

Black Friday doesn't mean anything.

1:03:431:03:47

Did they get the Budget wrong?

1:03:471:03:48

I think they get it

wrong every year!

1:03:481:03:50

What matters more to you,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:03:501:03:53

Black Friday!

1:03:531:03:54

Because it's cheaper,

and I got my coat.

1:03:541:03:56

Did you look at what

was in the Budget?

1:03:561:03:58

No!

1:03:581:03:59

# Only boys that save their pennies

1:03:591:04:01

# Make my rainy day

1:04:011:04:04

# Cos we are living

in a material world...

1:04:041:04:07

I just think Black

Friday is a big con.

1:04:071:04:09

Do you?

1:04:091:04:10

Yes, I do.

1:04:101:04:11

Do you think the Budget

was a big con?

1:04:111:04:13

Not for me, but for some people.

1:04:131:04:16

# And I am a material girl

1:04:161:04:18

# Living in a material world...

1:04:191:04:22

What puts more money in your pocket,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:231:04:27

Probably Black Friday.

1:04:271:04:28

Yeah!

1:04:281:04:29

Why?

1:04:291:04:30

Yeah, a lot of deals

on Black Friday.

1:04:301:04:33

More money in your pocket but,

actually, overall, the Budget.

1:04:331:04:36

What's more important,

the Budget or Black Friday?

1:04:361:04:38

What's the Budget?

1:04:381:04:39

Well, it was...

1:04:391:04:41

The Chancellor talking about money

and stuff on Wednesday?

1:04:411:04:44

Jesus, I'm really rubbish.

1:04:441:04:47

Definitely the Budget.

1:04:471:04:48

Why's that?

1:04:481:04:49

Because I'm not a big shopper.

1:04:491:04:54

Did you pay any attention to any

of the bargains being offered

1:04:541:04:57

by the Chancellor on Wednesday?

1:04:571:04:58

I saw stamp duty got rid of.

1:04:581:05:00

But that doesn't apply

to us right now.

1:05:001:05:02

And so Black Friday's better?

1:05:021:05:03

Yeah.

1:05:031:05:04

# A material, a material world...

1:05:041:05:06

Well, Black Friday is in

full swing in Leeds.

1:05:061:05:09

But shoppers here have

discounted that and say

1:05:091:05:11

it is Wednesday's Budget that

matters more to them.

1:05:111:05:13

# Living in a material world...

1:05:131:05:15

So that's the view from Leeds

on a Budget that self-consciously

1:05:161:05:19

tried to target younger voters

with the abolition of stamp duty

1:05:191:05:23

for some first time buyers

and extending the young person's

1:05:231:05:26

railcard to rail travellers

up to the age of 30.

1:05:261:05:30

In June's election,

as subsequent polling revealed,

1:05:301:05:33

the Conservatives trailed Labour

by some margin amongst the young.

1:05:331:05:36

I use the word "young",

but even those in their 40s

1:05:361:05:39

were more likely to vote Labour

than Conservative.

1:05:391:05:45

Will the Budget have addressed any

of those problems? Time to turn to

1:05:451:05:50

the panel. Zoe, giveaways to the

under 30s, does it make a difference

1:05:501:05:57

to the Tories?

The Railcard is

actually quite a bad other, it has a

1:05:571:06:02

lot of restrictions. The

shortcomings of the Railcard were

1:06:021:06:04

the least bad thing about the idea.

It is so trivial, such a failure to

1:06:041:06:09

address what young people are saying

about politics. You know, huge debt

1:06:091:06:14

burden is at the end of university,

the impossibility of joining the

1:06:141:06:17

housing market. They are talking

about massive, structural changes to

1:06:171:06:21

the economy that make different to

our lives. The Conservatives come

1:06:211:06:30

back with a Railcard? It is almost

like they are sabotaging themselves.

1:06:301:06:33

It wasn't just stamp duty, also

stimulating the market to make more

1:06:331:06:38

houses available. Would that have

been noticed by younger voters that

1:06:381:06:41

have not been turning to the

Conservatives?

The housing market is

1:06:411:06:46

still massively broken, it is not

entirely clear that the

1:06:461:06:50

Chancellor's, what he called a £44

billion package, experts said 15

1:06:501:06:54

billion or less, if that will fix

the problems and started to bring

1:06:541:06:58

down the price of houses, it is not

clear that the housing package will

1:06:581:07:01

result in a large number of extra

homes being built. Ultimately, in

1:07:011:07:06

the big picture, this was a

forgettable Budget. That is just how

1:07:061:07:10

Theresa May and Philip Hammond

pretty much wanted it. They did not

1:07:101:07:13

want it to be a Budget that went

down in flames because it was

1:07:131:07:16

defeated in the Commons or because

there was a Tory rebellion about

1:07:161:07:19

some nefarious tax raising measure.

What it did, worryingly for the

1:07:191:07:26

Conservatives, is that it accepted

some of Labour's arguments. It said,

1:07:261:07:30

we know that the NHS is a bit

underfunded, so we will give it some

1:07:301:07:35

money. We know there is a problem in

the housing market, we will put some

1:07:351:07:39

money to that. It accepted some of

Labour's solutions. Because tax

1:07:391:07:43

rising it's too hard, we are going

to borrow to get out of the

1:07:431:07:47

political problems, make do and mend

the political problem is that there

1:07:471:07:50

are. Having gone some way towards

acknowledging the problems and

1:07:501:07:53

solutions that Labour offer, they

have a hell of a job trying to

1:07:531:07:56

convince people that going whole hog

that Labour suggests is the wrong

1:07:561:08:04

answer. That is one of the big

problems they face.

I don't think

1:08:041:08:07

the Tories really stand a chance on

this question with younger voters

1:08:071:08:09

until they have a change of

leadership, maybe even a couple of

1:08:091:08:13

leaders before then. They are only

really going to connect to people

1:08:131:08:16

below the age of 45 when those

voters see somebody that does not

1:08:161:08:19

look like the identikit concept of a

Tory. There is a trust deficit. The

1:08:191:08:27

Tories are regarded by younger

voters as the nasty party.

Earlier

1:08:271:08:36

we heard from Mairead McGuinness and

Owen Paterson on the issue of the

1:08:361:08:42

Irish border, as the war of words

continues to ramp up.

I am troubled

1:08:421:08:47

this morning because I have read a

quote from Arlene Fox, the trade

1:08:471:08:50

Secretary, saying that the border

issue will not be solved until the

1:08:501:08:56

final stage, until we reach a

decision on trade. I hope that the

1:08:561:09:00

United Kingdom is not holding the

Irish situation to ransom. It is far

1:09:001:09:05

too serious and far too critical.

It

is very irresponsible politicians to

1:09:051:09:10

make a statement like that, saying

they are going to force and

1:09:101:09:14

blackmailed the UK into having a

special status for Northern Ireland

1:09:141:09:18

outside the rest of the UK. That is

a really dangerous thing to do and

1:09:181:09:21

they should stop doing it. There are

perfectly sensible technical

1:09:211:09:25

solutions to the problem of the

border.

Let's pick up some of that

1:09:251:09:29

with the panel. It was quite

bad-tempered, I have to say, for two

1:09:291:09:35

people that are supposed to be the

best of our lives, the UK and Irish

1:09:351:09:39

government. The row is heating up?

Yes, feelings are running very high.

1:09:391:09:47

There is quite a lot of hype about

this and I don't think it is likely

1:09:471:09:51

that the EU will put Ireland in a

position where Ireland has to Beto

1:09:511:09:55

moving forward on the trade talks.

-- veto. The solution probably lies

1:09:551:10:06

in phase two. What could be

happening, and this is why I think

1:10:061:10:13

December is so critical, if there is

not a breakthrough in December, I

1:10:131:10:20

think the atmosphere changes and

Britain effectively needs to start

1:10:201:10:25

preparing for there being no deal.

It is possible that Emmanuel Macron,

1:10:251:10:33

France, being quite difficult with

the British, could use the Irish

1:10:331:10:36

argument to say that the 27 is not

satisfied with the progress. I think

1:10:361:10:41

at that point, it would be pushing

the British Government too far.

I

1:10:411:10:46

basically agree with Ian. I don't

think we need to put on the table a

1:10:461:10:56

fully fledged plan for how to deal

with the Irish border. I think what

1:10:561:11:00

is going on is a certain amount of

choreography for the Irish in

1:11:001:11:03

Brussels and London, so that the

British make clear we are taking

1:11:031:11:06

this incredibly seriously. There

needs to be warm words, in the sense

1:11:061:11:10

of progress. As Ian says, you can't

have a plan until we know what the

1:11:101:11:14

end state relationship with the

European Union is going to be. It

1:11:141:11:16

does look like there will be a lot

of talk. I am not sure it will

1:11:161:11:22

result in a catastrophic failure in

three weeks' time. However, this

1:11:221:11:25

remains possibly the most pivotal

moment in the talks. Theresa May has

1:11:251:11:32

to have satisfied the European Union

politically. We will knowing about

1:11:321:11:35

two weeks whether she is going to

achieve that or not. If she doesn't,

1:11:351:11:40

I think we're going to be right back

into government in crisis territory.

1:11:401:11:44

She has made wanted to get progress

towards a a fundamental aim of her

1:11:441:11:50

premiership, and I don't think that

if that looks like it is going to

1:11:501:11:56

collapse you will be in a strong

position.

Is that right, absolutely

1:11:561:11:59

crucial that the EU we want to trade

talks?

It is still unclear whether

1:11:591:12:03

the end of the customs union and

single market are a done deal within

1:12:031:12:08

the Conservative Party. Owen

Paterson is talking as though that

1:12:081:12:10

is what people voted for, of course

it isn't.

It is what he believes.

We

1:12:101:12:16

don't know that is

1:12:161:12:17

it isn't.

It is what he believes.

We

don't know that is the Conservative

1:12:171:12:18

position. The idea this is somehow

Europe or Island's fault for not

1:12:181:12:24

moving forward, how can we negotiate

on something when we don't know what

1:12:241:12:27

we want? I get no sense that we know

what we want.

There is a lot of

1:12:271:12:32

blame to go round. The point is that

the crunch is coming sooner than

1:12:321:12:36

people anticipate. If there is an

progress in December, effectively

1:12:361:12:40

there will be no progress until we

get too -- until we get to March.

1:12:401:12:50

Psychologically, it will be a very

important moment and Britain will

1:12:501:12:52

have to be getting ready one way or

another.

It would increase the

1:12:521:12:59

possibility of no deal?

I think

there would be a huge amount of

1:12:591:13:02

opposition to the idea of going into

a no deal scenario just because the

1:13:021:13:06

Conservative Party, which drove

this, couldn't make its mind up.

One

1:13:061:13:16

of the frustrating things about the

whole debate is that Theresa May

1:13:161:13:19

does not take a lead. She is one of

the most frustrating people to

1:13:191:13:22

watch, because she always reacts to

everybody else.

Thank you very much.

1:13:221:13:28

That's all for today.

1:13:281:13:29

Thanks to all my guests.

1:13:291:13:30

Join me again next Sunday

at 11am here on BBC One.

1:13:301:13:33

Until then, bye-bye.

1:13:331:13:34

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS