13/07/2014 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


13/07/2014

Mark Carruthers looks at the political developments of the week and questions policy makers on the key issues.


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Just two months to go until Scotland decides if it should stay

:00:37.:00:42.

As the campaign heads for the final furlong,

:00:43.:00:45.

what are the issues and arguments that will determine the result?

:00:46.:00:50.

The SNP's deputy leader Nicola Sturgeon joins me live.

:00:51.:00:53.

David Cameron's scheduled a major cabinet reshuffle on Tuesday.

:00:54.:00:56.

Many of those tipped for promotion are women.

:00:57.:00:59.

So have efforts to promote diversity in public life barely started or

:01:00.:01:03.

And don't know whether to support Germany or

:01:04.:01:12.

Fear not, we'll bring you our political guide to the World Cup.

:01:13.:01:19.

Coming up here: A peaceful Twelfth at the Ardoyne flashpoint and praise

:01:20.:01:21.

for those involved - but there's still no sign of a resolution. So,

:01:22.:01:25.

what next for Twaddell Avenue? Join me in half-an-hour.

:01:26.:01:27.

It's World Cup final day and as usual the BBC's snagged the

:01:28.:01:41.

Yes, eat your heart out, ITV, because for top football analysis

:01:42.:01:46.

we've got Gary Lineker, Alan Hansen, and Alan Shearer.

:01:47.:01:50.

And for top political analysis you may

:01:51.:01:52.

as well tune in to them too because all we could come up with is Nick

:01:53.:01:56.

David Cameron will reshuffle his cabinet on Tuesday.

:01:57.:02:06.

The Sunday papers are full of stories telling us who'll be

:02:07.:02:09.

in and who'll be out, though they don't really know.

:02:10.:02:11.

The Mail on Sunday has one of the more eye-catching lines,

:02:12.:02:14.

reporting that former defence secretary and right-winger Liam Fox

:02:15.:02:16.

is in line for a return to the political front line.

:02:17.:02:20.

But there's general agreement that women will do well and some

:02:21.:02:27.

of the old men in suits guard will do badly.

:02:28.:02:30.

Here's senior Tory backbencher David Davis speaking to this programme.

:02:31.:02:39.

It's good to make parliament more representative.

:02:40.:02:46.

But you've got to do it in a way that doesn't create

:02:47.:02:49.

injustices, and you can't put people in a job who can't do the job.

:02:50.:02:53.

And I've seen that too over the last 20 years, people being

:02:54.:03:01.

accelerated too far too fast and they come to

:03:02.:03:03.

a screeching halt where they have to catch up with themselves.

:03:04.:03:09.

I am not going to give an example. Is this not a bit cynical? He is

:03:10.:03:23.

going to promote these women into cabinet positions, but they will not

:03:24.:03:31.

be able to do anything. I am sceptical of Cabinet reshuffle. It

:03:32.:03:36.

is an un-written pact in that the media and the government have a

:03:37.:03:43.

great interest in talking it up. The government says, haven't we

:03:44.:03:47.

refreshed ourselves? Generally it doesn't refresh the government.

:03:48.:03:51.

David Cameron wants to send out a new signal. You're going to see the

:03:52.:03:58.

old guard getting a P 45 and you will see a lot of women come in and

:03:59.:04:02.

a lot of younger men. We will find there will be a lot of resignations.

:04:03.:04:09.

A lot of, dear Prime Minister, as I told you 18 months ago, I want to

:04:10.:04:15.

move on. Because the Conservatives have this perception of not being

:04:16.:04:20.

very good with women and not being good with black and ethnic minority

:04:21.:04:25.

voters, they are going to want to do something about that. Why did he

:04:26.:04:29.

voters, they are going to want to do do it before? This reshuffle might

:04:30.:04:33.

be the triumph of the a list. A lot of the women coming through the

:04:34.:04:36.

be the triumph of the a list. A lot ranks have been from the a list

:04:37.:04:42.

which was a half measure because they knew they could not bring all

:04:43.:04:44.

of them in. You are going to they knew they could not bring all

:04:45.:04:49.

more women but that is a result of a long-term strategy.

:04:50.:04:53.

more women but that is a result of a not the world's most raging

:04:54.:04:57.

feminist. He is doing this for practical

:04:58.:05:00.

feminist. He is doing this for an image problem for the party and

:05:01.:05:04.

he has to solve it. He was stung by that picture of the all-male bench

:05:05.:05:12.

at Prime Minister's Questions because visibly it gave you

:05:13.:05:19.

at Prime Minister's Questions about. I do not think he has allowed

:05:20.:05:21.

it to be all-male since that embarrassing image. I can understand

:05:22.:05:24.

the criticism made of this approach women being promoted by talentless

:05:25.:05:34.

but you have to be very harsh to look at them and say that they would

:05:35.:05:40.

have much less to offer than the likes of Andrew

:05:41.:05:51.

have much less to offer than the pro-feminist. The tests for David

:05:52.:05:52.

Cameron is that having pro-feminist. The tests for David

:05:53.:05:55.

expectations he has to give pro-feminist. The tests for David

:05:56.:05:59.

substantial jobs. They have to be given departments to run or big

:06:00.:06:04.

portfolios to carry. If they are given media campaign positions in

:06:05.:06:06.

the run-up to the election it looks perfunctorily. He is under some

:06:07.:06:14.

trouble to perhaps suggest a female commissioner to the European

:06:15.:06:19.

trouble to perhaps suggest a female Commission. Jean-Claude Juncker has

:06:20.:06:24.

made clear that if he proposes a woman candidate they will get a

:06:25.:06:30.

better job. Saying they would like ten out of the 28 to be women. We

:06:31.:06:37.

are going to get the name of the British candidate at the same time

:06:38.:06:43.

as the reshuffle. The first face-to-face meeting, he will be

:06:44.:06:49.

able to put a name. There are other names in the frame. People like

:06:50.:06:56.

Archie Norman. That come from? His name is in the frame. There would be

:06:57.:07:05.

great scepticism of giving it to Andrew Lansley. People would think

:07:06.:07:08.

he was the man who mucked up the reform of the NHS. Who is it going

:07:09.:07:17.

to be? Either a woman or a man. I would not be surprised if they go

:07:18.:07:22.

for someone believe dynamic. Someone who would square the party. Would

:07:23.:07:29.

that not mean a by-election? It might. She is a high profile

:07:30.:07:36.

Eurosceptic. She is a very competent former banker. It would be the smart

:07:37.:07:40.

choice. I have no idea but my favourite rumour is Michael Howard.

:07:41.:07:42.

That had some legs for a while. The Mystic Megs of Fleet Street

:07:43.:07:50.

predict with confidence that the PM is going to promote more women

:07:51.:07:55.

in his cabinet reshuffle. The move can be seen as part

:07:56.:07:56.

of a move across British public life to do more to make our institutions

:07:57.:08:00.

less male and less white. But as the list

:08:01.:08:03.

of schemes to encourage diversity grows ever-longer, have we abandoned

:08:04.:08:05.

the idea of appointment by merit? Tunnelling. Hard hats, and all for

:08:06.:08:20.

new trains. It does not get more macho than the Crossrail project.

:08:21.:08:26.

When Crossrail looked at the construction industry they realise

:08:27.:08:26.

that less than 20% was made up construction industry they realise

:08:27.:08:38.

women and they asked, can we fix it? They are trying with a recruitment

:08:39.:08:40.

drive that has brought in female engineers like this woman. She even

:08:41.:08:46.

has a tunnel named after her. Having more female engineers and

:08:47.:08:50.

construction brings a bigger range of opinions, a bigger range of

:08:51.:08:56.

ideas, more diversity, into the industry, and makes it better as a

:08:57.:09:01.

whole. It is the issue being grappled in another male dominated

:09:02.:09:04.

workplace, the Cabinet. There is about to be a reach shuffle and the

:09:05.:09:08.

rumour is David Cameron is going to promote a lot of female ministers.

:09:09.:09:10.

It was a lack of promotion that annoyed Harriet Harman this week.

:09:11.:09:18.

She claimed Gordon Brown did not make her Deputy Prime Minister

:09:19.:09:22.

because she was a woman. It was strange that in a hard-fought highly

:09:23.:09:25.

contested election to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, and

:09:26.:09:30.

having won against men in the Cabinet, to succeed to be deputy

:09:31.:09:34.

leader of the Labour Party I discovered that I was not to be

:09:35.:09:39.

appointed as Deputy Prime Minister. For women in this country, no matter

:09:40.:09:43.

how able they are, the matter how hard they might work, they are still

:09:44.:09:49.

not equal. There are initiatives to make the world feel more equal. In

:09:50.:09:54.

the City the EU wants a quarter for women in the boardroom but that goal

:09:55.:09:59.

of making 40% of the top floor female. At the BBC the boss of the

:10:00.:10:04.

TV division says no panel show should ever be all-male. In the ever

:10:05.:10:10.

glamorous movie business the British film Institute announced their new

:10:11.:10:14.

thematic system to get lottery funding projects improving diversity

:10:15.:10:20.

on screen and off and helping social mobility. Employers like Crossrail

:10:21.:10:28.

are not allowed to positively discriminate but under the quality

:10:29.:10:32.

act of 2010 if two candidate for a job are just as good you are allowed

:10:33.:10:36.

to base your decision on characteristics like race, sexuality

:10:37.:10:42.

and gender. Some worry it has chipped away at the idea of hiring

:10:43.:10:48.

on merit. A woman and three men going for a job, two of the men are

:10:49.:10:53.

really good and the woman is not quite as good but she gets the job

:10:54.:10:57.

anyway. That will create injustice, a feeling that she did not deserve

:10:58.:11:04.

the job, resentment. It does not advance equality in society at all.

:11:05.:11:14.

On this project they want to leave a concrete legacy of a more diverse

:11:15.:11:18.

construction industry. The question is, what tools do you use when it

:11:19.:11:20.

comes to the rest of society? I'm joined now by

:11:21.:11:31.

Yasmin Alibhai-Brown, a columnist for the Independent,

:11:32.:11:32.

and by Munira Mirza, the deputy mayor of London responsible

:11:33.:11:35.

for education and culture. Cabinet wee shovel coming up punches

:11:36.:11:48.

though. Should David Cameron be promoting women? He is going to do

:11:49.:11:55.

it anyway. He should have a long time ago. It does not feel quite

:11:56.:12:00.

right that a few months before the election it would do the party a lot

:12:01.:12:06.

of good to be seen as a party properly reflective of the entire

:12:07.:12:11.

population. He should promote women because they are women? I think he

:12:12.:12:15.

should think about lots of different factors, whether the people he wants

:12:16.:12:18.

promote have proven themselves in their current reefs, whether they

:12:19.:12:25.

are good performers in the media, whether they represent different

:12:26.:12:30.

parts of the party, but the main principle is to promote on basis of

:12:31.:12:34.

merit. There are many talented women who fill that description. It should

:12:35.:12:39.

be that merit is the important thing rather than what you were born with.

:12:40.:12:43.

The thing about positive discrimination as it flies in the

:12:44.:12:46.

face of that kind of principle. You are shaking your head. We have

:12:47.:12:52.

always had positive discrimination. Men of a certain class have

:12:53.:12:59.

appointed in their own image because they feel most comfortable with

:13:00.:13:04.

that. We have had unspoken positive discrimination in this country and

:13:05.:13:06.

every other country throughout history. We are asking as women, all

:13:07.:13:13.

minorities, let us get into the same game. What do you say? You cannot

:13:14.:13:19.

solve the racism or the sexism of the past by more racism and sexism.

:13:20.:13:25.

It is not the past. There are complex reasons why a smaller number

:13:26.:13:29.

of women will appear in certain industries. It has a lot to do with

:13:30.:13:35.

childcare, education, expected. You cannot short cut that by setting a

:13:36.:13:39.

target. That is not how you achieve equality. Things are changing and

:13:40.:13:43.

more women are appearing in engineering and so on but it will

:13:44.:13:48.

take time. My worry is that these kinds of measures are

:13:49.:13:51.

counter-productive and undermine the perception that women can do it on

:13:52.:13:52.

their own merit rather counter-productive and undermine the

:13:53.:13:54.

perception that women can do it than because they need a helping hand. It

:13:55.:14:00.

is not a helping hand. It is to say, we are as good as men and these

:14:01.:14:10.

hidden barriers. Dot. Either they are not as good or they do not want

:14:11.:14:17.

it, which ourselves that it is not happening, or there are barriers.

:14:18.:14:20.

it, which ourselves that it is not How we judge meritocracy is at the

:14:21.:14:21.

heart of it. Are lots of How we judge meritocracy is at the

:14:22.:14:30.

won there are not that many women, such as engineering. We need more

:14:31.:14:33.

engineers generally. I such as engineering. We need more

:14:34.:14:37.

fine to try to encourage such as engineering. We need more

:14:38.:14:42.

to study that subject. By setting a target you put pressure on an

:14:43.:14:50.

organisation. You tried to ignore the complex reasons why women do not

:14:51.:15:11.

go into those sectors. I think an all-female short list achieved

:15:12.:15:21.

miracle in Parliament. This is following up from having an

:15:22.:15:25.

injection of women coming up because the system was changed and a large

:15:26.:15:28.

percentage of women went into Parliament under the all-female

:15:29.:15:35.

short list were brilliant, so why not? So if the Prime Minister is

:15:36.:15:43.

mailed the Deputy Prime Minister has to be female and vice versa? Yes,

:15:44.:15:50.

absolutely, 50-50. We need to reflect the population. If we want

:15:51.:16:00.

to play this as a symbolic gesture, ideally we should have one of each.

:16:01.:16:05.

Why should a man get the job if you have a great female prime minister

:16:06.:16:11.

and a great female Deputy Prime Minister? I personally wouldn't mind

:16:12.:16:18.

this. I hear the disgruntled man and I want to come -- them to come with

:16:19.:16:28.

us. You're choosing people on the basis of traits they were born

:16:29.:16:33.

with. Are there too many Indian doctors in the NHS? I would argue

:16:34.:16:39.

not. Given that we tend to have male prime ministers rather than female

:16:40.:16:43.

ones, and we don't see another female one coming down the pipe very

:16:44.:16:50.

quickly... In the time before women short lists by the way. If you had a

:16:51.:16:57.

male prime minister with a female Deputy Prime Minister, wouldn't that

:16:58.:17:03.

give some balance? Why women? Why not working class person, which

:17:04.:17:08.

group do you prioritise? I would go with you that we need something

:17:09.:17:13.

fundamental to change. This idea that what we have now is a

:17:14.:17:17.

reflection of a genuine meritocracy is highly questionable. I would

:17:18.:17:21.

argue that when you look at the statistics things are changing.

:17:22.:17:23.

argue that when you look at the statistics things There are more

:17:24.:17:26.

women appearing in parts of public life, that is a long-term trend, but

:17:27.:17:34.

if you are trying to appoint people on what they were born with... That

:17:35.:17:38.

is not the only reason but it is an additional reason. She has to be

:17:39.:17:42.

able to do the job, obviously. I am saying the policy of hazard to

:17:43.:17:48.

discrimination explicitly state that you should choose somebody who is

:17:49.:17:52.

female because they are female. At the moment there is already enough

:17:53.:17:56.

suspicion about women who are successful to get to the senior

:17:57.:18:03.

position and if you institutionalise it you reinforce that suspicion.

:18:04.:18:06.

Harriet Harman is still complaining women are not being treated fairly.

:18:07.:18:13.

I think the policy reinforces the prejudice that women are not getting

:18:14.:18:16.

there because they are treated on the same basis. Although you may not

:18:17.:18:23.

want to have the all-female short list forever, wasn't it the kind of

:18:24.:18:27.

shock to the system that made a visible change in female

:18:28.:18:33.

representation, which the Tory side hasn't got? Of course it will work

:18:34.:18:40.

short-term but longer term it has a very degrading effect on the

:18:41.:18:45.

principle of equality and the fact Harriet Harman is saying she wasn't

:18:46.:18:49.

treated equally, whether it is true or not, the perception is still

:18:50.:18:58.

there. A number of women find this position must be reserved for a

:18:59.:19:02.

woman lying patronising, and speaking of patronising women, you

:19:03.:19:10.

spoken your Independent column, she presses all of the buttons for white

:19:11.:19:15.

people... Was that patronising and offensive? Probably. I wrote it

:19:16.:19:21.

because I felt that at the time but the point is that I was a token when

:19:22.:19:25.

I was appointed. The paper brought me in because I was a woman and I

:19:26.:19:32.

was a muslin or whatever. You are not writing about yourself. I was

:19:33.:19:37.

writing... It doesn't mean you don't criticise other women. We absolutely

:19:38.:19:54.

have to be tough, Manira is tough and so am I. Do you want to take

:19:55.:20:01.

back what you wrote? No. Do you really think positive discrimination

:20:02.:20:06.

has gone too far? I think there is already a suspicion out there that

:20:07.:20:12.

in certain sectors women are being promoted for the wrong reasons or

:20:13.:20:16.

ethnic minorities are being promoted for the wrong reasons. That is a

:20:17.:20:22.

shame and my worry is that by tying funding to your ethnicity or your

:20:23.:20:27.

gender, by saying you will get a promotion if you check that box, but

:20:28.:20:31.

you feel that resentment and prejudice and undermine the case for

:20:32.:20:41.

inequality. I wanted to be treated equally, because I am capable of

:20:42.:20:47.

doing that job. Only two months to go before Scotland takes its biggest

:20:48.:20:56.

constitutional decision in 300 years - should it quit or stay with the

:20:57.:21:01.

UK? For some in Scotland campaign has been going on forever. What has

:21:02.:21:06.

been the impact on the campaign to date?

:21:07.:21:12.

Alex Salmond says Scotland would remain part of the European Union

:21:13.:21:17.

with sterling as its currency in a monetary union with the rest of the

:21:18.:21:22.

UK, but he has also promised more public spending, increased child

:21:23.:21:28.

care provision and free personal care for the elderly. The SNP claims

:21:29.:21:35.

it would leave people better off by ?1000 though that partly depends on

:21:36.:21:41.

the price of oil. With the Better Together arguing against

:21:42.:21:47.

independence, it has naturally been attacking the SNP on all fronts.

:21:48.:21:51.

George Osborne says there will be no monetary union. President Barroso

:21:52.:21:58.

told the BBC it would be extremely difficult for Scotland to join the

:21:59.:22:03.

EU after a yes vote. His successor this week said he agreed. Unions

:22:04.:22:17.

claim Scotland benefit by ?1400 by being part of the UK. A poll this

:22:18.:22:24.

morning shows a significant lead of 57% for the no campaign, leaving the

:22:25.:22:30.

SNP to claim it will go their way in the last ten weeks. Nicola Sturgeon,

:22:31.:22:35.

the Deputy First Minister of Scotland, joins me now. You want an

:22:36.:22:39.

independent Scotland to keep the pound, stay in NATO, stay in the

:22:40.:22:47.

EU, Scotland already has all of that but you cannot guarantee it would

:22:48.:22:51.

have any of it in an independent Scotland, why take the risk? All of

:22:52.:22:59.

these things should be the case because they are in the best

:23:00.:23:02.

interests of Scotland and the rest of the UK but we want the powers to

:23:03.:23:08.

enable us to grow our economy faster, to be productive, and

:23:09.:23:14.

overtime increased the prosperity of people living in Scotland. We also

:23:15.:23:19.

want powers over our social security system so that we can create a

:23:20.:23:25.

system that meets our needs, one that also has a safety net for the

:23:26.:23:29.

most vulnerable people in our society. Independence is about

:23:30.:23:36.

letting us decide our own priorities. You didn't answer my

:23:37.:23:40.

question, you cannot guarantee you would be able to keep the pound

:23:41.:23:44.

within a monetary union, stay in NATO and the EU, you cannot

:23:45.:23:50.

guarantee you could produce any of these things, correct? I would argue

:23:51.:23:54.

that we can because these things are also in the interest of the rest of

:23:55.:24:00.

the UK. No country can be prevented from using the pound, I suggest we

:24:01.:24:05.

use that within a formal monetary union. We have had the UK minister

:24:06.:24:10.

quoted in the Guardian saying the position of the UK Government right

:24:11.:24:15.

now is one based on campaign rhetoric and following a yes vote,

:24:16.:24:19.

of course there would be a currency union. Who is that minister? The

:24:20.:24:27.

Minister is unnamed, but nevertheless that story in the

:24:28.:24:31.

Guardian was a solid one and not substantially denied. So you are

:24:32.:24:37.

basing your monetary policy on one on named minister in one story?

:24:38.:24:46.

Basing it on Common sense because monetary union would be in the best

:24:47.:24:51.

interests for Scotland but also overwhelmingly in the interests of

:24:52.:24:55.

the rest of the UK, given their trading relationship with Scotland

:24:56.:25:00.

and the contribution Scotland's exports make. We are having a very

:25:01.:25:08.

good debate and the UK Government and the no campaign, and this is not

:25:09.:25:19.

a criticism, want to talk up in -- uncertainty to make people feel

:25:20.:25:24.

scared, but after independence there will be constructed process of

:25:25.:25:28.

negotiation. Let's stick with the monetary union because most

:25:29.:25:31.

economists agree it would be very good for an independent Scotland to

:25:32.:25:35.

have a monetary union but George Osborne, Ed Balls, Danny Alexander

:25:36.:25:41.

are unequivocal, they say you won't get it. You claim they are bluffing

:25:42.:25:47.

but again you cannot guarantee that so why the risk? I would say the

:25:48.:25:51.

benefits of independence are substantial but I would also say to

:25:52.:25:55.

George Osborne and his counterparts in the other parties that it would

:25:56.:25:59.

be a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

:26:00.:26:04.

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of half

:26:05.:26:07.

a very brave Chancellor that says to businesses in the rest of the UK

:26:08.:26:10.

that they have to incur unnecessary additional transaction costs of

:26:11.:26:15.

half. What we are doing is making a case that is based on common sense

:26:16.:26:19.

and voters in Scotland will listen to that case being put forward by

:26:20.:26:25.

the other side as well, and they will come to a judgement of the

:26:26.:26:33.

common-sense position. Let's look at EU membership because you haven't

:26:34.:26:37.

been able to guarantee the monetary union. When President Barroso said

:26:38.:26:47.

that a seamless transition to EU membership for an independent

:26:48.:26:50.

Scotland was anything but certain, and one said it could even be

:26:51.:26:55.

impossible, you dismissed him because he was standing down, but

:26:56.:27:04.

been -- venue EU president says the same, do you dismissed him? What we

:27:05.:27:11.

are doing... I should say at the outset of this, we have said

:27:12.:27:16.

repeatedly to the UK Government, let's go jointly and ask for a

:27:17.:27:20.

formal opinion on the EU commission. The EU commission have

:27:21.:27:24.

said they will only do that at this stage if the UK Government ask for

:27:25.:27:31.

it, they are point blank refusing to do that, you have to ask why? It is

:27:32.:27:37.

in their interests to talk up uncertainty. Scotland is an integral

:27:38.:27:42.

part of the European Union, we have been for 40 years, we comply with

:27:43.:27:49.

the rules and regulations... Mr Juncker knows all of that but he

:27:50.:27:54.

still says it will be anything but a seamless transition. He said you

:27:55.:27:59.

could not join the European Union by sending a letter, that is not our

:28:00.:28:11.

proposal. We set down a robust proposal and the timescale we think

:28:12.:28:16.

is reasonable under these circumstances. There are many

:28:17.:28:22.

nationals of other states living in Scotland right now, if we were to be

:28:23.:28:27.

outside of the European Union for any period of time, something the

:28:28.:28:31.

current treaty doesn't even provide for, they would lose their right to

:28:32.:28:36.

stay here. The interests of Scotland and the interests of European Union

:28:37.:28:40.

are in favour of a seamless transition. It comes down to common

:28:41.:28:45.

sense and people in Scotland will make

:28:46.:28:45.

sense and people in Scotland will their own judgement on who is

:28:46.:28:50.

talking the common-sense. What about NATO, two years ago you told

:28:51.:28:56.

Newsnight the SNP's position is that we wouldn't stay in NATO. We had a

:28:57.:29:02.

democratic debate, we looked at whether it would be in the interests

:29:03.:29:06.

of an independent Scotland, which forms a significant part of the

:29:07.:29:13.

territory of the North Atlantic and the party changed its mind. It did

:29:14.:29:19.

so in a thoroughly democratic way. That is the nature of democracy.

:29:20.:29:27.

Would you accept the protection of the NATO nuclear umbrella? There is

:29:28.:29:38.

no doubt the SNP's position is that we do not want nuclear weapons in

:29:39.:29:47.

Scotland. That is not what I asked. The world rid themselves of nuclear

:29:48.:29:50.

weapons. One of the interesting point is of the 28 member countries

:29:51.:29:54.

of Natal 25 do not have nuclear weapons. An independent Scotland...

:29:55.:29:59.

I asked if you would accept the nuclear umbrella. The key feature of

:30:00.:30:11.

NATO's military dog train is now clear shrike. We would accept the

:30:12.:30:18.

basis of which NATO is founded but we would argue two things. We want

:30:19.:30:24.

Trident removed from Scotland rather than have a situation where might we

:30:25.:30:27.

are spending ?100 billion over the next generation replacing Trident

:30:28.:30:33.

and we would argue within the international community that the

:30:34.:30:37.

world should move much more quickly to rid itself of nuclear weapons.

:30:38.:30:41.

That is the principal position and won the SNP has held consistently

:30:42.:30:46.

for many years. You would get rid of one of the key parts of the NATO

:30:47.:30:52.

deterrent based in Scotland. You would kick that out. You would not

:30:53.:30:56.

accept all of the club rules because you do not like the idea of nuclear.

:30:57.:31:02.

Why would they like a member like you in? Because Scotland is a

:31:03.:31:07.

significant part of the territory of the North Atlantic. You do not

:31:08.:31:13.

subscribe to the rules. 25 of the member states of NATO are

:31:14.:31:18.

non-nuclear members. You are saying you do not follow the doctrine. NATO

:31:19.:31:25.

has said it wants to move away from reliance on nuclear weapons. An

:31:26.:31:29.

independent Scotland would be entering the majority mainstream of

:31:30.:31:34.

NATO as a country that did not have nuclear weapons. By leading by

:31:35.:31:39.

example our moral authority and encouraging others to do likewise

:31:40.:31:44.

would be increased. Money and oil, the finance minister has said that

:31:45.:31:49.

an independent Scotland would increase public spending by 3% a

:31:50.:31:52.

year. He would pay for that by borrowing. Your First Minister says

:31:53.:31:57.

he is going to stash money in an oil fund. You're going to borrow and

:31:58.:32:03.

save. How does that work? There are two points. Firstly in terms of the

:32:04.:32:10.

outlook for finances and what is one of the central debates of this

:32:11.:32:15.

referendum campaign, austerity that we know will continue if we stay as

:32:16.:32:18.

part of the Westminster system versus prosperity. The economy can

:32:19.:32:24.

afford a higher level of increase in public spending while we continue to

:32:25.:32:28.

have deficit levels at a sustainable level. What is the point of

:32:29.:32:34.

borrowing and saving at the same time? People who have a mortgage and

:32:35.:32:39.

the savings account would not themselves what the wisdom of that

:32:40.:32:45.

is. This is based on recommendations of our expert fiscal Commission that

:32:46.:32:48.

as borrowing reduces to sustainable levels it makes sense to start

:32:49.:32:54.

saving a proportion of our oil wealth. In Norway, which has many

:32:55.:33:00.

similarities to Scotland, they have an oil fund worth ?500 billion.

:33:01.:33:06.

Scotland is part of the Westminster system is sitting on a share of UK

:33:07.:33:11.

debt. We can continue to allow our oil wealth, our vast oil wealth, to

:33:12.:33:17.

be mismanaged or we can decide we are going to manage that resource

:33:18.:33:20.

better in the years to come. Your figures do not add up unless you are

:33:21.:33:27.

about oil prices and revenue and you have been consistently wrong in your

:33:28.:33:31.

predictions. Last year you forecast that revenues would be the .7

:33:32.:33:38.

billion more than they actually work -- 3.7 billion. The cost of the

:33:39.:33:46.

Scottish school system gone. There were particular reasons for that in

:33:47.:33:50.

terms of interruption to production and bigger levels of investment.

:33:51.:33:54.

Used ill have to find the money. Let me explain. They are based on robust

:33:55.:34:00.

assumptions, firstly a production estimates that is in line with the

:34:01.:34:04.

estimates of the oil and gas industry. Use of figures that are

:34:05.:34:08.

based on production of 10 billion barrels of oil. Oil and gas has been

:34:09.:34:16.

wrong as well. It is 24 billion left to be recovered. That is what is in

:34:17.:34:22.

the UK Government's oil and gas strategy so production in line with

:34:23.:34:28.

industry estimates and an oil price of $110 per barrel which is flat in

:34:29.:34:31.

cash terms would be a real terms reduction. The Department of energy

:34:32.:34:39.

is estimating $128 per barrel so our estimate compared to that is

:34:40.:34:43.

cautious. These are robust estimates based on robust assumptions. Except

:34:44.:34:50.

they have been wrong. Finally, we hear a lot from you and your fellow

:34:51.:34:56.

nationalists, you want a Scandinavian style social democracy,

:34:57.:35:01.

you know how to spend the money but you never tell us about social

:35:02.:35:04.

democratic levels of taxation. Also should grizzlies have higher levels

:35:05.:35:08.

of tax in Scotland does at the moment -- all social grizzlies. I

:35:09.:35:15.

want a Scottish style of social democracy. Free education, free

:35:16.:35:21.

medicines and balancing the books every single year. We want to get

:35:22.:35:27.

more people into work in Scotland, raise the level of distribution in

:35:28.:35:31.

the Labour market and make the economy more productive so we are

:35:32.:35:34.

raising the overall tax revenue. Over the last 33 years we have

:35:35.:35:40.

generated more taxpayer head of population than is the case and the

:35:41.:35:47.

rest of the UK. Those last 33 years, some of those years oil prices would

:35:48.:35:51.

have been high and in others they would have been law but we take

:35:52.:35:56.

different decisions. A report showed that if we go as part of the

:35:57.:35:59.

Westminster system down the plate -- route of replacing Trident then the

:36:00.:36:07.

cost will be as high as ?4 billion every year. Our share of that is the

:36:08.:36:12.

hundred million pounds a year. Let us get access to our own resources

:36:13.:36:16.

so we can make different and better decisions about how to spend the

:36:17.:36:20.

resources we have. You are promising Scandinavian style social democratic

:36:21.:36:25.

levels of public spending but you say you will not need a top rate of

:36:26.:36:30.

tax of 56% which is what Scandinavia has, that all 25%, which is what

:36:31.:36:39.

Scandinavia has and VAT of 15%. You are going to have the spending but

:36:40.:36:43.

none of the taxes that make it possible in Scandinavia. For

:36:44.:36:49.

mischievous reasons you are met -- misrepresenting what I am saying.

:36:50.:36:55.

The Scottish economy can afford it and we want to generate more wealth

:36:56.:36:59.

in our economy. We want to use the existing resources Scotland has. We

:37:00.:37:04.

are the 14th richest country in the world in terms of what we produce.

:37:05.:37:09.

We do not want to be wasting resources. We want to be spending

:37:10.:37:13.

resources on the things that other priority for the people of Scotland.

:37:14.:37:17.

These are the benefits and the opportunities really get if we take

:37:18.:37:22.

the opportunity of voting yes and becoming independent.

:37:23.:37:33.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:37:34.:37:44.

No resolution to the controversial Ardoyne parade,

:37:45.:37:46.

but no violence either, after a generally peaceful Twelfth weekend.

:37:47.:37:51.

But what's the next step to ending the stand-off?

:37:52.:37:53.

I'll be talking to the North Belfast DUP MP Nigel Dodds

:37:54.:37:55.

With me throughout the programme are Jim Flanagan of the Ballymena

:37:56.:38:01.

Guardian and Professor Peter Shirlow from Queen's University.

:38:02.:38:11.

So, there's been something of a collective sigh of relief that

:38:12.:38:13.

the Twelfth of July weekend has seen no repeat of the violence

:38:14.:38:16.

of recent years at the Ardoyne flashpoint in North Belfast.

:38:17.:38:20.

Members of the local Ligoniel lodges were prevented from returning past

:38:21.:38:24.

the Ardoyne shops on the Crumlin Road by a Parades Commission

:38:25.:38:27.

ruling - a ruling that the wider Orange family disputed,

:38:28.:38:29.

However, the Orange Order remains adamant its campaign will continue.

:38:30.:38:44.

We have united unionism around this issue and shattered the myth that we

:38:45.:38:52.

stand alone. As we speak there are protest parades the length and

:38:53.:38:56.

breadth of the problems. Do not underestimate the significance of

:38:57.:38:59.

the six minute stoppage earlier today by every orange man and banned

:39:00.:39:07.

on parade. That stoppage says to the world that the Justice and hatred

:39:08.:39:13.

that stops people expressing their culture along a show called Sheard

:39:14.:39:20.

Road. Six minutes. The tide is turning. Far from going away, we are

:39:21.:39:27.

preparing to enhance our campaign and our efforts are being redoubled

:39:28.:39:31.

politically and through further peaceful and lawful means. The more

:39:32.:39:37.

and the SDLP MLA for the area, Alban Maginness.

:39:38.:39:51.

Things passed off peacefully, as you and others hoped they would. Does

:39:52.:39:56.

that transformed the landscape and others hoped they would. Does

:39:57.:40:02.

the future? It is a very positive development. All of us were very

:40:03.:40:07.

pleased at the end of the day at how things worked out, in north Belfast

:40:08.:40:11.

in particular. There was a lot of tension, anger and frustration at

:40:12.:40:17.

the Parades Commission. People felt strongly that threats of republican

:40:18.:40:22.

violence had won the day. Nevertheless, the unity of purpose

:40:23.:40:30.

and leadership at all levels and the positive engagement of a range of

:40:31.:40:33.

people on the ground managing the situation they deliver a dignified

:40:34.:40:40.

protest and a strong message, but done in a peaceful and lawful way.

:40:41.:40:46.

That enables us to have a strong platform to move forward. You could

:40:47.:40:51.

argue that the Parades Commission got it right because it would just a

:40:52.:40:54.

response that everybody is happy with. I don't think you can take

:40:55.:40:58.

that from that at all. There was leadership and begin -- a unity of

:40:59.:41:04.

purpose that resulted in a peaceful day. That is what we always wanted

:41:05.:41:07.

purpose that resulted in a peaceful to see. We have been very clear

:41:08.:41:14.

throughout the years at Ardoyne that we did not want violence. The vast

:41:15.:41:15.

bulk violence have come from

:41:16.:41:19.

republicanism, violence have come from

:41:20.:41:25.

dissident republicanism as violence have come from

:41:26.:41:28.

2012. That is the issue that needs to be addressed. Can we allow

:41:29.:41:39.

threats of violence from republicans to sway decision-making in Northern

:41:40.:41:43.

Ireland? The Parades Commission has created a position that needs to be

:41:44.:41:46.

addressed. The issue has not gone away. There is a concentration and

:41:47.:41:56.

determination more broadly than in North Belfast at all levels of

:41:57.:41:59.

unionism to make sure this issue is probably addressed. Do you think

:42:00.:42:06.

things have changed for the better? I think we should banquet

:42:07.:42:10.

things have changed for the better? achieved yesterday. That was a

:42:11.:42:14.

peaceful Twelfth, by and large. That is an important step forward. I

:42:15.:42:20.

think we have one a bit of space and time to try and resolve the problem

:42:21.:42:26.

in Ardoyne on a negotiated basis between the two communities. And to

:42:27.:42:31.

find a local resolution to this particular problem. I think that has

:42:32.:42:41.

been won by the good sense of those both on the unionist side and the

:42:42.:42:44.

nationalist side. Would you pay tribute to Unionist leaders? They do

:42:45.:42:50.

pay tribute. It is what they should have been saying all along. I think

:42:51.:42:57.

it is important that people on the Unionist side, on the leadership

:42:58.:43:04.

side, they keep repeating to their reporters that the determination of

:43:05.:43:07.

the Parades Commission, although they may not like that

:43:08.:43:11.

determination, that it should in fact be complied with and any

:43:12.:43:15.

protests that there might be should be peaceful. I certainly believe

:43:16.:43:20.

that that is progress and if we can continue that way I think we can

:43:21.:43:26.

create an atmosphere where we have very positive negotiations. What

:43:27.:43:32.

impact will this have on the psyche of Unionist leaders and the Unionist

:43:33.:43:38.

rank and file and people in the Orange Order, to hear political

:43:39.:43:43.

opponents actually giving you credit. I assume isn't something

:43:44.:43:50.

that you are very used to! Martin McGuinness and the police constable

:43:51.:43:56.

both said very positive things, as the church leaders. Does that help

:43:57.:44:00.

for the future because people are getting credit for a different

:44:01.:44:03.

approach? Many make it clear that Unionist leaders and the Orange

:44:04.:44:09.

Order have always been forthright in their denunciation of violence and

:44:10.:44:15.

have always been clear in their call for peaceful demonstrations or

:44:16.:44:22.

protests. The last year at Twadell Avenue has been peaceful. Every

:44:23.:44:24.

Saturday there is a parade there and it has been peaceful. That is not an

:44:25.:44:29.

accident, it has been work on the ground by people in the community,

:44:30.:44:34.

Orange Order and politicians. It has been very hands-on. It has. What has

:44:35.:44:45.

happened is that people have taken this issue and there is now a unity

:44:46.:44:53.

of purpose around at a high political level, as well as local

:44:54.:44:56.

level and there is a determination to acknowledge right across the

:44:57.:45:01.

board on the part of unionists to make sure that others acknowledge

:45:02.:45:05.

the seriousness of this issue and how it can impinge on other issues.

:45:06.:45:10.

What we need to do is build on what we have achieved so far, but

:45:11.:45:15.

recognise that the problem is not resolved and there are real issues

:45:16.:45:23.

there. Does it allow a bit more wriggle room to be built into the

:45:24.:45:27.

negotiation process, which might allow some kind of compromise to be

:45:28.:45:34.

produced? It will depend on whether the words of republicans and

:45:35.:45:40.

nationalists are actually translated into action. All we are asking for

:45:41.:45:44.

is tolerance and respect. The six minutes that it takes to walk down

:45:45.:45:49.

the road in the morning, which was done with great tolerance and

:45:50.:45:54.

respect in terms of both the Orange Order and residents, that could not

:45:55.:46:03.

be repeated in the evening. Let's see whether or not the breathing

:46:04.:46:07.

space created is translated into action, not just in words from

:46:08.:46:11.

nationalist leaders but in terms of their actions to put their talk of

:46:12.:46:17.

tolerance and respect into action. Has that breathing space been

:46:18.:46:21.

created? I think it has. We need to work very hard and almost

:46:22.:46:26.

immediately to try to recreate the dialogue that was suspended prior to

:46:27.:46:33.

the Twelfth. I think the principles of tolerance and respect are

:46:34.:46:39.

important principles. I would hope that we could create a compromise in

:46:40.:46:45.

Ardoyne around those two principles. It is very important to have local

:46:46.:46:51.

community engagement and I believe that all of us politicians should be

:46:52.:46:55.

encouraging it. What about this issue that Nigel Dodds raises, how

:46:56.:47:05.

come the community in Ardoyne can put up at the parade going down the

:47:06.:47:09.

road but will not bring any discussion about going back up in

:47:10.:47:15.

the afternoon? I don't think there is any contradiction there. If you

:47:16.:47:21.

listen to the judgement of the judge in the High Court last week whenever

:47:22.:47:29.

he commented upon the situation, he said it was quite clear that there

:47:30.:47:33.

are significant differences between the morning parade and an afternoon

:47:34.:47:38.

or evening parade. He made that very clear. If a High Court judge comes

:47:39.:47:43.

to that conclusion and if the Parades Commission comes to that

:47:44.:47:47.

conclusion, it is fair and reasonable for the residents to come

:47:48.:47:52.

to that conclusion as well. Can we get into a few specifics? The

:47:53.:47:57.

Parades Commission ruling is the same as it was last year. I am told

:47:58.:48:01.

by a senior figure in the Parades Commission that there has to be

:48:02.:48:04.

overwhelming evidence brought to the table that will change an existing

:48:05.:48:11.

decision. How do we move this forward? How do you draw the sting

:48:12.:48:19.

out? How do you put the Ardoyne stand-off in the past tense so we

:48:20.:48:23.

don't have to go through what we have been through again in 12

:48:24.:48:28.

months? It comes down to the tolerance and respect on both sides.

:48:29.:48:37.

That has to be the case. It can't be a denial of fundamental rights. We

:48:38.:48:40.

need to exercise those rights on both sides in a way which promotes

:48:41.:48:45.

tolerance and respect. In relation to the Parades Commission and what

:48:46.:48:50.

has been said, every application has to be judged on its merits. I am a

:48:51.:48:53.

bit concerned when to be judged on its merits. I am a

:48:54.:48:57.

from inside the Parades Commission indicate that things have to be

:48:58.:49:02.

different in order to make a different decision because each

:49:03.:49:05.

application for each parade has to be judged on its own merits. That is

:49:06.:49:13.

an important point of principle. The point is, if nothing has changed,

:49:14.:49:17.

there is no evidence to change things, then the previous ruling

:49:18.:49:23.

will inevitably stand. I understand what you're saying. There was change

:49:24.:49:27.

this year in the sense that there had been intense dialogue directly

:49:28.:49:30.

involving the Orange order with residents, and with the Orange order

:49:31.:49:36.

and the Parades Commission, and despite of all that they still ruled

:49:37.:49:49.

against the Orange Order. Also, the potential for disorder, and that

:49:50.:49:53.

disorder was coming from republicans. That is a very

:49:54.:49:56.

disorder was coming from destabilising and worrying

:49:57.:50:02.

development. 12 months ago the violence came

:50:03.:50:13.

development. 12 months ago the sides. Yes, the violence

:50:14.:50:22.

development. 12 months ago the violence that has ruled the

:50:23.:50:25.

Commission in terms of what they decided to do in 2012, over the last

:50:26.:50:30.

two years. What the Parades Commission said is that there has to

:50:31.:50:35.

be sustained and sincere dialogue and respect for the determinations

:50:36.:50:40.

of the Parades Commission. That was not the situation. If that changes,

:50:41.:50:45.

the Parades Commission will have to consider that, but nothing as yet

:50:46.:50:51.

there has changed in that direction. Let's pause this discussion for a

:50:52.:50:52.

moment. the Queen's academic Pete Shirlow

:50:53.:50:56.

and the journalist Jim Flanagan. Peter, what do you make of what has

:50:57.:51:10.

happened over the last couple of days? There is a breathing space.

:51:11.:51:17.

Management and negotiation, although those talks broke down in June, we

:51:18.:51:21.

are seeing a very different attitude. Even within the Orange

:51:22.:51:27.

Order, what has happened in Derry with the apprentice boys, talking

:51:28.:51:34.

has been the key to resolution. I think what we are witnessing is a

:51:35.:51:39.

wake-up call in many ways for those who would claim to represent both

:51:40.:51:42.

sides. They are starting to understand that there has to be a

:51:43.:51:46.

process that has taken much further than it has been. Unionism has to

:51:47.:51:58.

make sure when they talk about respect and parity of esteem, what

:51:59.:52:04.

that means, as well. The language needs to be put into real action and

:52:05.:52:10.

positive outcomes. Is there a breathing space? Has the landscape

:52:11.:52:14.

changed? I think certainly the fact that the parade yesterday passed his

:52:15.:52:20.

fully means there should be credit given all round. It doesn't change

:52:21.:52:24.

the fundamentals. There is a potent cop tale of grievance in the

:52:25.:52:27.

unionist community about this parade. It is important that while

:52:28.:52:33.

there may be a breathing space it doesn't last indefinitely. There is

:52:34.:52:37.

a temptation to think it is over, so that is OK until next year. We

:52:38.:52:42.

should grasp the nettle now. I interviewed the police constable on

:52:43.:52:45.

Thursday night when he does not want to send 100 peace officers up to

:52:46.:52:53.

Twadell Avenue every night, costing ?40,000 a day. We always say that,

:52:54.:52:58.

but we never talk about it until the next June! There is a more focused

:52:59.:53:02.

attempt now being made to deal with this. 40 years ago the Ulster

:53:03.:53:12.

workers Council strike led to many people being injured. We still have

:53:13.:53:17.

the effect of that. We are in a different place. We should start to

:53:18.:53:21.

celebrate that a bit more. They are difficult issues, but they are not

:53:22.:53:29.

taking us back to the past. Will the nettle be grasped, or will we put it

:53:30.:53:35.

on the long finger until 11 months's time? I trust not. The

:53:36.:53:42.

problem over the past year was that the dialogue commenced in April.

:53:43.:53:50.

That was far too late in the day. It only continued up until the

:53:51.:53:54.

beginning of June. I think Jim makes an important point, the nettle is

:53:55.:54:01.

being grasped because the Unionist leaders have said that we have a

:54:02.:54:04.

plan, we have called for a commission of enquiry, we are

:54:05.:54:08.

meeting the Secretary of State to talk about that. There will be a

:54:09.:54:14.

high level and serious engagement as of now right through. The

:54:15.:54:18.

seriousness of this and the unity of purpose and the peaceful conditions

:54:19.:54:21.

that were brought about yesterday to create an opportunity for us. I need

:54:22.:54:32.

to ask you about the front-page story, saying the Peter Robinson

:54:33.:54:37.

will stand down in September and there are arrangements in place for

:54:38.:54:41.

a seat in the Lords. Typical tabloid rubbish. We normally have a silly

:54:42.:54:46.

season that starts in August, but it has started early. I am always

:54:47.:54:52.

reminded when I read things like this journalist should be as

:54:53.:54:58.

accountable politicians. They just invent new stories. So, no truth

:54:59.:55:12.

whatsoever? None whatsoever. There are of rumours! -- there are lots of

:55:13.:55:20.

rumours! Thank-you both for now -

:55:21.:55:22.

we'll hear more from you later. Now, with the political year

:55:23.:55:25.

at an end, time for a look back at some of the moments that stood

:55:26.:55:28.

out for us - and there was no If it is just a few small areas of

:55:29.:55:45.

outstanding disagreement, you might come back one further push? I don't

:55:46.:55:59.

see the need for that. We have had a good campaign and is

:56:00.:56:03.

our honoured by the people who have voted. It is essential that we get

:56:04.:56:10.

out the truth of all that went on in order to restore public confidence

:56:11.:56:14.

that has been so seriously damaged by this deal. Let us step up to the

:56:15.:56:20.

plate, start grappling with the real issue is not manufactured ones.

:56:21.:56:26.

Ethnic minorities have been attacked and I feel vulnerable when I walk on

:56:27.:56:33.

the street. I am innocent of any involvement in any conspiracy to

:56:34.:56:38.

conduct -- abduct or very Jean McConville. What is the political

:56:39.:56:45.

lesson you have learned? Don't start a political party with Basil McCrea.

:56:46.:56:51.

How are you keeping? Fine, thank you very much.

:56:52.:56:59.

People are waiting to find out what the graduated response means in

:57:00.:57:17.

reality. I think there is quite a serious situation that is developing

:57:18.:57:22.

up there. We have other issues as well, the June monitoring round

:57:23.:57:33.

remains unresolved, the OTR to. Nothing about the welfare reform

:57:34.:57:40.

stand-off either. There will always be in. What we need to start doing

:57:41.:57:45.

this year is be more positive. We have the city of culture in Derry.

:57:46.:57:59.

We have seen the Giro d'Italia. The crisis that we have today do not

:58:00.:58:07.

send us back to the past any more. A younger generation is being turned

:58:08.:58:10.

off by politics and I think that is probably the real crisis. Despite

:58:11.:58:15.

the protests, reconciliation projects will continue. What is

:58:16.:58:19.

happening on the ground is important.

:58:20.:58:25.

Let's pause for a moment and take a look back

:58:26.:58:28.

at the political week gone past in 60 seconds with Martina Purdy.

:58:29.:58:34.

Unionists may like to give the graduated response to a ruling on a

:58:35.:58:42.

parade in north Belfast. A denial of cultural expression will have a

:58:43.:58:47.

consequence. Friends in high places, the Taoiseach talks about the

:58:48.:58:55.

cancelled Garth Brooks constructs. I am very disappointed that it won't

:58:56.:58:58.

happen. The row over the decision by a bakery not to make a cake mated to

:58:59.:59:04.

a Westminster. In terms to those of different sexes, tolerance and

:59:05.:59:12.

equality of people with different sexualities, all of that is a very

:59:13.:59:16.

important part of being British. It was awards night. Was it Danny in

:59:17.:59:25.

like read that did it? Nobody put Peter Robinson into it? The winner

:59:26.:59:28.

of Best Minister is Simon Hamilton! Simon Hamilton, the Best Minister? I

:59:29.:59:41.

think it is a very good Simon Hamilton, the Best Minister? I

:59:42.:59:47.

has a great grasp of his brief and is dealing really well with the

:59:48.:59:52.

problems that the welfare cuts are creating. It was a draw between Jim

:59:53.:00:01.

Allister and Anna Lo for the best MLA? Two very different people!

:00:02.:00:13.

Democracy is the right to express your opinion. Anna Lo spoke very

:00:14.:00:23.

well about the race issue. Jim Allister is the Rottweiler who will

:00:24.:00:27.

always be there. People may dislike him in many ways for certain aspects

:00:28.:00:30.

of those politics, but what we do like is the role he plays of

:00:31.:00:33.

questioning the accountability of the Assembly.

:00:34.:00:35.

will keep a bit safer. That is all the time we have.

:00:36.:00:48.

So, plenty happening in Parliament this coming week, including

:00:49.:00:50.

a controversial bill to make so-called assisted dying legal and

:00:51.:00:53.

Lord Carey has intervened in the assisted dying debate. Will it make

:00:54.:01:13.

a difference? It will make a difference because we have

:01:14.:01:20.

established in the House of Lords, I am not sure who they speak for and

:01:21.:01:25.

why they should have a privileged position, but he was a big opponent

:01:26.:01:33.

and has made a change of heart. The fact that the Daily Mail has printed

:01:34.:01:36.

this shows this is a big intervention. The Bill being pushed

:01:37.:01:48.

through, is it now on the agenda? I think it is. There are international

:01:49.:01:54.

examples of assisted dying elsewhere. The state of Oregon

:01:55.:01:59.

passed a Bill similar to this in the 1990s and things have not got out of

:02:00.:02:04.

control. That has not been an expansion or abuse. It has settled

:02:05.:02:07.

down and become part of the furniture. That makes it easier for

:02:08.:02:16.

this Bill, to make the case for it. Religious people may still have a

:02:17.:02:20.

principled objection but most other people have a practical objection,

:02:21.:02:23.

which is how to put in place safeguards to deal with unscrupulous

:02:24.:02:27.

relatives or anyone else who wants to abuse this right? Once a

:02:28.:02:31.

controversial issue is only being opposed for practical reasons it is

:02:32.:02:36.

on its way to getting its way. What is the division, is it the Church

:02:37.:02:40.

against everybody else? Is it a right and left division? What is

:02:41.:02:48.

stopping it? It is a very difficult moral issue and there are people who

:02:49.:02:54.

can have genuinely held Christian beliefs or non-Christian beliefs who

:02:55.:02:59.

can be on both sides. I think that the Lord Carey intervention is

:03:00.:03:03.

potentially a game changer not just because he is a former Archbishop of

:03:04.:03:07.

Canterbury but because he was on the Evan Jellicoe side of the Church of

:03:08.:03:11.

England. That is quite a big move. The response was to say, please

:03:12.:03:18.

withdraw your bell and let us have a royal Commission. The Supreme Court

:03:19.:03:23.

kicked the ball back to Parliament when they rejected the cases of

:03:24.:03:27.

three people who had been taking the case and said, we could say that

:03:28.:03:33.

banning the right to life is against the European Court of Human Rights,

:03:34.:03:38.

but it is a moral issue and an issue for Parliament. Parliament needs to

:03:39.:03:47.

decide. The data act that is going to be pushed through Parliament. In

:03:48.:03:52.

record time. To comply with a European court judgement. Tom Watson

:03:53.:04:01.

and David Davis, some dissent. Are you so prized with how united the

:04:02.:04:05.

establishment, left, right and centre is? No. There is a great

:04:06.:04:12.

quote saying this has been enacted under the something must be done act

:04:13.:04:17.

and that captures it exactly. Even Cameron says he does not want to

:04:18.:04:23.

look people in the eye and say that he did not do everything he could.

:04:24.:04:27.

There is no end to the power of surveillance. It is all was about

:04:28.:04:31.

drawing a distinction. I am always suspicious when politicians look

:04:32.:04:35.

something up and said, we have all agreed. Are there at the centre is

:04:36.:04:41.

right or is the political establishment right? I think the

:04:42.:04:51.

establishment is right. I think it is stronger than other issues. We

:04:52.:04:57.

are in a unique position where all three political parties have

:04:58.:04:59.

relatively recent experience of government so they now that security

:05:00.:05:04.

threats are not made up by unscrupulous people. The legislation

:05:05.:05:11.

being proposed is not dramatic, it is to fill a gap that was created. I

:05:12.:05:17.

do not see the political controversy. All three political

:05:18.:05:23.

parties support it. David Davis and Liberty are against that, and always

:05:24.:05:31.

are. Would you not have expected... The Lib Dems are in government, but

:05:32.:05:35.

a bit more rebellion on the Labour backbenches? There is no political

:05:36.:05:42.

controversy put outside parliament there's quite a lot of controversy

:05:43.:05:48.

about this. My paper has taken an interest in this. It is interesting,

:05:49.:05:54.

it does not feel, it is not a 1950s, three public school boys

:05:55.:06:03.

setting, let us have this deal. The Liberal Democrats and Labour have

:06:04.:06:07.

serious questions. There's going to be a sunset clause that will run out

:06:08.:06:14.

in 2016. The Liberal Democrats, who asked pretty tough questions, have

:06:15.:06:20.

said there are assurances. Ed Miliband did not go to public

:06:21.:06:21.

school. For many English football fans,

:06:22.:06:25.

tonight's World Cup final presents How do you pick

:06:26.:06:27.

between two traditional foes Well, if you're

:06:28.:06:31.

a political obsessive, like these three, you could always back the

:06:32.:06:34.

nation according to how it votes. The website LabourList has produced

:06:35.:06:37.

a political guide to the tournament. At the beginning of the tournament,

:06:38.:06:52.

it was a fairly balanced playing field politically with 15 left wing

:06:53.:06:57.

and 17 right-wing countries. England found themselves isolated in a group

:06:58.:07:01.

with three left-wing countries. That was the least of their problems.

:07:02.:07:07.

There was a clear domination of democratic regimes over

:07:08.:07:10.

authoritarian with only six of oratory and countries making it

:07:11.:07:12.

through to the finals and the only all authoritarian tie was dubbed the

:07:13.:07:22.

worst match of the World Cup. By the second round 16 teams remained. The

:07:23.:07:26.

left had a clear advantage with nine, seven from the right and

:07:27.:07:31.

authoritarian countries all but wiped out. Two representatives

:07:32.:07:36.

remained. Both were beaten by European democracies. By the

:07:37.:07:45.

semi-finals, all was even Stephen. A right-wing Protestant Europe taking

:07:46.:07:51.

on Catholics South America. With one victory

:07:52.:07:54.

on Catholics South America. With one Brazil and Argentina beating the

:07:55.:07:57.

Dutch, tonight's final repeats that pattern. Who will win? Angela

:07:58.:08:01.

Merkel's Germany or Argentina? We're joined now

:08:02.:08:11.

by Britain's only Labour adviser Should we read political

:08:12.:08:24.

significance in to the fact that the only time England has won the World

:08:25.:08:28.

Cup was under a Labour government? Of course. The problem is we did not

:08:29.:08:34.

qualify for Euro 2008 when it was a Labour government. We have had some

:08:35.:08:38.

pretty shoddy results under a Labour government. As someone under the

:08:39.:08:44.

left, are you backing Argentina? Absolutely not. I do not think it

:08:45.:08:50.

has anything to do with politics. It is a bit of fun. People should

:08:51.:08:59.

choose it is Don Hoop plays the best football and the Germans have been

:09:00.:09:03.

fantastic. They were great in 2010 as well. They started this model in

:09:04.:09:09.

2008 and that is the sort of thing people should be supporting. Who

:09:10.:09:14.

should a Eurosceptic support? I would not say Argentina because that

:09:15.:09:20.

is the country that has tried to seize British sovereign territory

:09:21.:09:25.

within my lifetime. You were not around for the Blitz. Believe it or

:09:26.:09:31.

not, I was not. There is a strong political case to support Germany.

:09:32.:09:35.

They are probably going to win the World Cup with a clear of -- with

:09:36.:09:48.

players of Polish origin. That sort of cultural change they have forced

:09:49.:09:52.

themselves to go through... You talk about them being right wing, but in

:09:53.:09:59.

fact the way that the German league is structured, and I am an expert,

:10:00.:10:07.

is based on ownership. It is very different from the Premier League.

:10:08.:10:11.

It is about football as a usual good. The ticket prices are lower.

:10:12.:10:18.

The fans are involved in running the club. It is a model that all English

:10:19.:10:26.

football clubs should emulate. Germany had a strong football team

:10:27.:10:32.

under centre right governments and centre left governments and a

:10:33.:10:39.

coalition. A strong football team and a strong economy. The

:10:40.:10:46.

Conservative MP who is the arch Eurosceptic wanted to get us out of

:10:47.:10:50.

the European Union and was for a few weeks ago when people were making

:10:51.:10:56.

jokes about Jean-Claude Juncker, he was outraged and said you should not

:10:57.:11:01.

do that, so he could happily support Germany. What was interesting about

:11:02.:11:07.

the authoritarian and democratic regimes, what is great is that the

:11:08.:11:12.

World Cup is run by this open and democratic organisation Fifa. It is

:11:13.:11:24.

similar to the EU in many regards. Two countries led by women. Maybe

:11:25.:11:31.

gender is the thing. We did not win under Margaret Thatcher. There's one

:11:32.:11:37.

big difference with the EU, you cannot flog six Dom Acta gets to go

:11:38.:11:45.

to a European summit. Did you know that Italy won two world cups under

:11:46.:11:58.

Mussolini? Can we draw any conclusions between a political

:11:59.:12:00.

system and the performance of the football team? You can draw certain

:12:01.:12:06.

parallels between maybe national cliches, so the Germans are

:12:07.:12:12.

efficient and effective, which might reflect and the English are very

:12:13.:12:16.

polite so we let everyone score first and go into the second round.

:12:17.:12:21.

We put ourselves at the back of the queue. Is England going to qualify

:12:22.:12:27.

for the European? We are going to win the European Championship. The

:12:28.:12:37.

first country Scotland have to play is Germany. What could possibly go

:12:38.:12:45.

wrong? Who is going to win? Germany. Germany. I am going to put a few bob

:12:46.:12:56.

on Argentina. Are you going to be watching? Absolutely. Thank you.

:12:57.:13:03.

This is the last Sunday Politics for the summer.

:13:04.:13:08.

But we'll be back in early autumn and our first programme will be live

:13:09.:13:11.

from Scotland, the weekend before the referendum

:13:12.:13:17.

The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at noon and we'll bring you

:13:18.:13:22.

the last PMQs before the summer on Wednesday morning from 11:30am.

:13:23.:13:25.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics, unless

:13:26.:13:29.

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