24/01/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


24/01/2016

Andrew Neil and Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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Jeremy Corbyn calls on Britain to accept more refugees and economic

:00:38.:00:45.

migrants, as the Port of Calais is forced to close overnight

:00:46.:00:49.

after migrants attempted to force their way onto a Channel ferry.

:00:50.:00:54.

David Cameron appears increasingly confident he'll bag a deal on EU

:00:55.:00:57.

reform next month, including new measures to reduce EU migration

:00:58.:01:00.

In the first of three Sunday Politics debates,

:01:01.:01:06.

the leave and remain campaigns go head-to-head on immigration.

:01:07.:01:10.

And speaking exclusively to this programme, Ed Miliband's former

:01:11.:01:15.

pollster Deborah Mattinson criticises Labour's official report

:01:16.:01:19.

into why the party lost the general election for failing to face up

:01:20.:01:22.

I think it was a whitewash and a massive missed opportunity.

:01:23.:01:29.

And in Northern Ireland: Despite welfare mitigations,

:01:30.:01:30.

it seems some benefits claimants will lose out

:01:31.:01:32.

So have our politicians abandoned those most in need?

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-- the conservative's Mayor candidate has now launched his

:01:38.:01:51.

action plan. And with me, as always,

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the best and the brightest political panel in the business -

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Nick Watt, Beth Rigby and Janan They'll be tweeting

:01:55.:01:57.

throughout the programme So, the Port of Calais was forced

:01:58.:01:59.

to close for a while yesterday after migrants managed to breach

:02:00.:02:06.

security and board a ferry. Amateur footage captured

:02:07.:02:09.

the moment a group managed to break through security fences and head

:02:10.:02:12.

towards the P ferry. The incident happened

:02:13.:02:14.

during a protest at the port, The head of the Road Haulage

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Association here in Britain has renewed demands for the French

:02:17.:02:20.

military to intervene. As it happens,

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the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, was in northern France yesterday,

:02:23.:02:24.

visiting the migrant camps While he was there,

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he reiterated his calls for the British Government to do

:02:27.:02:31.

more to help migrants. I talk to people all over

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the country and not everyone is that cold-hearted, not everyone

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else has a stony heart. They are prepared to reach out,

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and I think we need a response And indeed Germany has

:02:45.:02:47.

done an enormous amount, other countries have

:02:48.:02:53.

done varying amounts, and I think we should

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be part of helping to bring a European-wide support

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to people, and that's what I'm Jeremy Corbyn yesterday. Beth, what

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we make of the story, the government will allow unaccompanied children

:03:13.:03:17.

refugees, already in Europe, to come into Britain? Some of my government

:03:18.:03:23.

sources have suggested that is not what David Cameron would like to do,

:03:24.:03:26.

if you think about how he dealt with the crisis in August, he said we

:03:27.:03:30.

will take some Syrian refugees but we will take them from the camps in

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Syria and around Syria, we will not take them from Calais, because he

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thinks this is a push factor and it makes people come over. What the

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government might end up doing, they might agree to take refugee children

:03:45.:03:50.

unaccompanied, but only from Syria and the Middle East, not from

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Calais. What about the kids who have made it here? They could be bad way.

:03:55.:04:02.

Nick? The signals on government, they have not made any decisions yet

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and the announcement is not imminent, but Beth makes a very

:04:07.:04:10.

important point, the Prime Minister said you do not want to encourage

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people to make that journey, therefore the instinct is to take

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people from the neighbouring countries. Apart from unaccompanied

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kids, they have come across in terrible conditions, and they are in

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Calais and Dunkirk. The call to take these children, from that report,

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that says that is a fair proportion of the 26,000 unaccompanied children

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that have come to Europe. The figures in that report are

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terrifying, in 2014, of the 13,000 unaccompanied children that ended up

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in Italy, 3000 went missing, and of the African children that went to

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Italy, half of them had been subject to some form of sexual abuse, it is

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the most horrific figures. That 3000 figure, endorsed by Jeremy Corbyn,

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also endorsed by the cross-party International Development Select

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Committee, said there is edible pressure on the Prime Minister on

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this one. -- formidable. The humanitarian case has been strongly

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but by Jeremy Corbyn and others, but it is marginal. 3000 children, that

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would be great for them, but 37,000 migrants have come to Greece in

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January alone, and the mud has not even ended, ten times the number

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that came in last January -- the month. The problem is getting bigger

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and bigger, and the response has been wholly inadequate. It has, it

:05:36.:05:39.

looks marginal, but that is about as much as you can expect, until there

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is EU wide agreement about how to distribute what you might call the

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burden of the influx, but there is nothing close to that agreement and

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there's not even a deal between the EU and Turkey about ceiling borders

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and dealing with human traffickers let alone a deal within the EU about

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which country bears how much of the burden. Until then, you just have

:06:03.:06:07.

these improvised solutions, 3000 here, France taking a bit more, and

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there is no certainty that the unaccompanied children are

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overwhelmingly Syrian, there is the suspicion that Syrians travel as

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complete families and the unaccompanied children are

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disproportionately from Somalia, for example, similarly distress, but not

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the problem that they think they are dealing with. This plays into the

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referendum question, there is the nervousness in the in campaign, that

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a referendum in September, after a summer of large sums of migrants

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coming in, kids or otherwise, would affect the result one way or

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another. That is a big story, and we will come back to that at the end of

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the show. Last week, the long-awaited autopsy

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into Labour's defeat at the general The report by Margaret Beckett

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concluded that Ed Miliband wasn't judged to be as strong a leader

:06:53.:06:57.

as David Cameron, and that Labour had failed to shake off the myth

:06:58.:07:00.

that Labour was responsible But parallel research was also

:07:01.:07:03.

commissioned to inform the Beckett Report,

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and despite being completed in July, The former Labour pollster

:07:07.:07:08.

Deborah Mattinson carried out this research, and has spoken exclusively

:07:09.:07:12.

to the Sunday Politics. We are saying the Conservatives

:07:13.:07:15.

are the largest party. We all know what happened

:07:16.:07:26.

on election night. Instead of a hung parliament,

:07:27.:07:28.

David Cameron walked back into Downing Street

:07:29.:07:32.

with a majority of 12. Labour got it wrong, as well,

:07:33.:07:35.

suffering a net loss of 26 Friends, this is not the speech

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I wanted to give today. Ed Miliband resigned

:07:39.:07:42.

within hours, but it has taken eight and a half

:07:43.:07:45.

months for the party to publish its own inquiry

:07:46.:07:48.

into what went wrong. Margaret Beckett's report is called

:07:49.:07:52.

Learning The Lessons From Defeat. It doesn't, says one pollster,

:07:53.:07:56.

who has worked for several former I think it was a whitewash

:07:57.:08:00.

and a massive missed opportunity. Just a few weeks after the election

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defeat, Deborah Mattinson was commissioned

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by the acting leader Harriet Harman to research

:08:09.:08:11.

why Labour lost. She says the evidence was meant

:08:12.:08:13.

to feed into the Beckett I did brief Margaret

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Beckett so I was somewhat disappointed not to see some

:08:16.:08:21.

of that reflected back. Yes, I think she picked up

:08:22.:08:24.

on the economy but there was actually no analysis,

:08:25.:08:27.

it is reduced effectively to one And there is a lot of quite

:08:28.:08:30.

defensive stuff about the fact this does not necessarily

:08:31.:08:40.

mean that anti-austerity is wrong. "Of course we had a great business

:08:41.:08:43.

strategy, what a pity the voters "That was probably

:08:44.:08:46.

the fault of the media". Quite apologetic,

:08:47.:08:50.

lots of defensive stuff in there, but nothing that actually

:08:51.:08:54.

really shone a light on what had Do you accept that when Labour

:08:55.:08:57.

was last in power it No, I don't, and I know

:08:58.:09:01.

you might not agree with that Margaret Beckett's report

:09:02.:09:06.

acknowledges that Labour failed to shake what she

:09:07.:09:14.

describes as the myth that the party caused

:09:15.:09:16.

the financial crisis. But she concludes that Labour

:09:17.:09:18.

was not seen as anti-aspiration Deborah Mattinson says that

:09:19.:09:22.

for people in her focus groups Frankly, they did not trust Labour

:09:23.:09:25.

to manage the economy effectively, they were very

:09:26.:09:30.

concerned about that. In their minds, they

:09:31.:09:33.

are seeing a conflation between the financial crisis,

:09:34.:09:38.

which they do blame Labour for, rightly or wrongly,

:09:39.:09:44.

and their sense that Labour would waste money,

:09:45.:09:45.

their money, and run the economy Voters could not see

:09:46.:09:48.

him as Prime Minister. But Margaret Beckett

:09:49.:09:55.

concluded that Ed Miliband faced an exceptionally

:09:56.:09:59.

vitriolic and personal attack People looked at Ed Miliband

:10:00.:10:02.

and did not see him And if you look at every

:10:03.:10:07.

election since the 70s, what we see, the party that has

:10:08.:10:12.

the leader with the best ratings is the party that wins,

:10:13.:10:15.

there is no exception to that. I get it, that people weren't

:10:16.:10:19.

prejudiced against immigration, I get it and I understand

:10:20.:10:22.

the need to change. The Beckett Report acknowledges that

:10:23.:10:28.

Labour did not quite get it on issues like immigration

:10:29.:10:31.

and benefits, and that the fear of the SNP propping up a minority

:10:32.:10:35.

government scared off many voters. But Deborah Mattinson says Labour

:10:36.:10:46.

was losing support in Scotland well before the independence referendum

:10:47.:10:54.

and the surge in SNP support. Put simply, she said

:10:55.:10:57.

voters did not feel that Labour was on their side,

:10:58.:10:59.

and the party still does not I feel very concerned

:11:00.:11:05.

that the lessons will be learned and I can't see how

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they will be learned, because that was the vehicle,

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that was the moment, and if this report does not address

:11:17.:11:19.

those issues then I'm not No political party has a divine

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right to exist and unless Labour really listens to those voters,

:11:22.:11:26.

that it must persuade, it stands no chance

:11:27.:11:28.

of winning the next election. And we've been joined by the former

:11:29.:11:30.

Shadow Cabinet minister Michael Dugher - you might remember

:11:31.:11:33.

he was sacked by Jeremy Corbyn Deborah Mattinson says the better

:11:34.:11:40.

report is a whitewash, is she right? -- Beckett Report. That is a bit

:11:41.:11:46.

harsh, does it have all the answers, though, of course not, and I think

:11:47.:11:49.

Deborah Mattinson make some very fair observations in that piece, but

:11:50.:11:54.

what Margaret concludes in her report, it is not a massive shock to

:11:55.:11:58.

those of us that were knocking on doors last May and have thought long

:11:59.:12:02.

and hard about it since, we were not trusted enough on the economy, and

:12:03.:12:05.

that was the big issue, but also on immigration and welfare, we were

:12:06.:12:09.

seen as out of touch, and also leadership being the most important

:12:10.:12:13.

thing in any race. She makes those conclusions, in the report, and I

:12:14.:12:18.

think the key thing now, is to listen to the issues that she

:12:19.:12:21.

raises, but also listen to Debra and many others who have made a

:12:22.:12:24.

contribution since the report came out. We have got to face up to the

:12:25.:12:29.

difficult issues as to why we lost, if we are going to win again. Voters

:12:30.:12:34.

found Ed Miliband the personification of the Labour brand,

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that was the problem, well-meaning but ineffectual. I'm likely to

:12:38.:12:43.

deliver -- and likely to deliver on promises. Did you detect that at the

:12:44.:12:49.

time? I was very close to Ed Miliband and I gave him some advice,

:12:50.:12:53.

some of which he took and some of which he didn't. I wanted him to be

:12:54.:12:57.

a success, I saw him in private and you have strong he did beat, and

:12:58.:13:02.

often he got very unfair coverage in the media and often he did not do

:13:03.:13:06.

himself justice in his performances -- I saw him in private and how

:13:07.:13:10.

strong he did beat. The real lesson here, for any lead at the Labour

:13:11.:13:16.

Party can you have got to play to your strengths and you have got a

:13:17.:13:21.

fundamentally address your perceived weaknesses. The private polling

:13:22.:13:27.

showed the Tories were in the late, was that not a warning that things

:13:28.:13:31.

were going wrong? -- in the lead. I'm not sure how much private

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polling I was shown. You did not see this? The year before the election,

:13:37.:13:42.

I was appointed Shadow Secretary of State for Transport, I was not so

:13:43.:13:45.

much part of the central operations and I did not see private polling.

:13:46.:13:51.

Many of us thought that we were getting difficult conversations on

:13:52.:13:54.

the doorstep, but we were told consistently, including by the

:13:55.:13:57.

pollsters, that we were neck and neck and there was a perception that

:13:58.:14:00.

we were doing better in the marginals, as well. That turned out

:14:01.:14:04.

to be catastrophically wrong, but one of the things that is not in

:14:05.:14:09.

Margaret's report is about the organisational lessons, that does

:14:10.:14:13.

speak, if you have a million conversations, what are you doing

:14:14.:14:17.

with the data? I remember in the last two days of the campaign, I was

:14:18.:14:21.

sent to Derbyshire, Amber Valley, and in Yorkshire, to Rothwell, but I

:14:22.:14:26.

should have been sent to Morley to help Ed Balls, and Derby North to

:14:27.:14:31.

help Chris Wood this. The campaign has got to base what they do on the

:14:32.:14:37.

information, and in 2010 we took very hard decisions, six months away

:14:38.:14:40.

from polling day, based on the information we had about prioritise

:14:41.:14:44.

in resources, but are not sure that happens this time. -- I'm not sure.

:14:45.:14:52.

Deborah Mattinson looks at the boundary changes before the next

:14:53.:15:03.

election, and she thinks the Beckett Report made a failure to confront

:15:04.:15:09.

why you lost enough. Her conclusion is this, Labour's future is in

:15:10.:15:15.

profound jeopardy - is it? I think we have a massive challenge at the

:15:16.:15:19.

next election. I don't think any political party has a right to be

:15:20.:15:25.

successful in the future. I am an optimistic person. Labour, when we

:15:26.:15:29.

have got our act together, when we have been in touch with the public

:15:30.:15:34.

we have shown we can win. Is Labour's continued existence a

:15:35.:15:43.

question mark? We have got to start getting in touch with the public.

:15:44.:15:49.

One thing the report did slightly skirt around, the question over

:15:50.:16:01.

politics as an identity. People like myself have been banging on about

:16:02.:16:05.

this, not just in the weeks before the election but for months and

:16:06.:16:10.

years before, and we need to face up to that. No political party has a

:16:11.:16:14.

right to exist, but I think if Labour gets our act together, if we

:16:15.:16:21.

stop picking fights with ourselves, if we face up to the difficult

:16:22.:16:25.

issues in this report and elsewhere, we can be successful in the future.

:16:26.:16:32.

In what ways, as things stand at the moment, what ways will Labour be

:16:33.:16:37.

better, in better shape, under Jeremy Corbyn heading into the 2020

:16:38.:16:41.

election than it was in the 2015 election? What is one of the main

:16:42.:16:47.

conclusions from the Beckett Report, it said we did make some gains,

:16:48.:16:56.

1.5%, but we were stacking up area -- support in areas where we were

:16:57.:17:01.

already strong. If they think you are out of touch on immigration and

:17:02.:17:05.

welfare, you had better start talking about immigration and

:17:06.:17:10.

welfare. Jeremy Corbyn seems to want almost no limit on immigration, it

:17:11.:17:16.

is hard to detect if he would have any limits, and he is rather against

:17:17.:17:24.

welfare reforms. I'm not sure that is an election winning strategy. On

:17:25.:17:29.

immigration, I made this point to him, you have got to understand this

:17:30.:17:35.

is the second biggest issue nationally, it is the biggest issue

:17:36.:17:38.

in many constituencies including mine, and I said that many of the

:17:39.:17:47.

answers are about stopping pressure on wages and conditions. There are

:17:48.:17:51.

good centre-left solutions to these problems, about Europe dividing more

:17:52.:17:58.

help for communities facing these changes. I made the point to him, on

:17:59.:18:03.

welfare he is right to say we should be standing up to help the most

:18:04.:18:08.

vulnerable, but in my experience you only get heard on those issues if

:18:09.:18:12.

the public think you are for real in terms of wanting to be tough on

:18:13.:18:16.

people who are frankly making decisions not to go into work so you

:18:17.:18:21.

have got to get the balance right. Do you accept, given his huge

:18:22.:18:26.

support among party members, that Jeremy Corbyn will lead you into the

:18:27.:18:32.

next election? He faces a big test in May. We have seen the polls and

:18:33.:18:39.

the ratings, any big test is a real election. He faces a big test

:18:40.:18:43.

because he was clear that a left-wing agenda is the key to

:18:44.:18:47.

transforming our fortunes in Scotland, I hope he's right. We need

:18:48.:18:51.

to win in London but we have got to show we can make big gains in the

:18:52.:18:55.

rest of London as well and we have got to hold onto power in Wales as

:18:56.:19:01.

well. But even if he fails these tests, do you think there will be an

:19:02.:19:06.

attempt to remove him? We have got to get behind Jeremy and he has got

:19:07.:19:12.

to show us that he can deliver and turn things around. We need to get

:19:13.:19:17.

behind him. People are very clear about what Jeremy stands for. He has

:19:18.:19:28.

achieved remarkable cut throughs. Over the next few months we will see

:19:29.:19:31.

more of that so he has got to be given a chance because he has a huge

:19:32.:19:35.

mandate by the party members but he has got to show he can turn that

:19:36.:19:39.

into real support from the public. That means also winning the support

:19:40.:19:44.

of people who voted Conservative last time. It is not an easy

:19:45.:19:48.

challenge, we are behind him in that but he has got to show he can learn

:19:49.:19:53.

the lessons that Margaret Beckett has talked about and Debra and

:19:54.:19:58.

others as well. We have got to stop it there, thank you.

:19:59.:20:00.

The hole Labour is in is deepest in Scotland, where the once-mighty

:20:01.:20:03.

party now holds just one Westminster seat.

:20:04.:20:05.

If Jeremy Corbyn is to win the general election in 2020,

:20:06.:20:07.

he needs to claw back support from the SNP,

:20:08.:20:10.

and the first test of his appeal north of the border is coming up

:20:11.:20:13.

fast in elections to the Scottish parliament in May.

:20:14.:20:15.

Speaking to Andrew Marr this morning, the leader of the SNP took

:20:16.:20:18.

aim at Mr Corbyn, criticising a plan he's floated

:20:19.:20:22.

to keep Britain's Trident submarines minus their nuclear warheads.

:20:23.:20:25.

I wonder what you made of Jeremy Corbyn's suggestion that

:20:26.:20:28.

you could keep the Trident submarines, therefore keep the jobs

:20:29.:20:30.

in Scotland, but not have nuclear missiles on them.

:20:31.:20:33.

I think it was ridiculous and I think it's a sign of just how

:20:34.:20:37.

tortured these debates are becoming within the Labour Party.

:20:38.:20:39.

On Trident, I agree with Jeremy Corbyn.

:20:40.:20:41.

I'm not in favour of the renewal of Trident, and we might have a vote

:20:42.:20:45.

on that in the House of Commons sooner rather than later.

:20:46.:20:49.

I think the real challenge for Jeremy Corbyn is,

:20:50.:20:56.

can he get his party into the position he wants it to be

:20:57.:20:59.

in so we can have any chance at all of stopping

:21:00.:21:02.

For Labour to sit on the fence on this issue or have a free vote

:21:03.:21:06.

on this issue will leave them without a shred of credibility.

:21:07.:21:10.

And I've been joined now by the Shadow Scottish Secretary,

:21:11.:21:13.

Let's pick up on the point from Nicola Sturgeon about Trident. In

:21:14.:21:24.

Scotland the electoral choice on this is clear, if you are unilateral

:21:25.:21:31.

disarmament, you vote SNP. You couldn't vote Labour on this issue

:21:32.:21:34.

because people don't know what you stand for. The Labour Party has been

:21:35.:21:40.

clear, a motion was passed almost unanimously to reject the renewal of

:21:41.:21:45.

Trident on that policy basis. But it is not party policy. There is a

:21:46.:21:52.

policy review happening at the moment so the Scottish Labour

:21:53.:21:56.

Party's policy on this is clear. It is a Scottish election don't forget.

:21:57.:22:04.

These Trident issues are diverting us away from big issues of policy in

:22:05.:22:09.

terms of public services. The Deborah Mattinson research found

:22:10.:22:17.

Scottish voters felt abandoned by the Labour Party. When did Labour

:22:18.:22:21.

start taking Scottish voters for granted? It has been clear from a

:22:22.:22:26.

number of reports that have been done that there has been a process

:22:27.:22:30.

in the party where we have not devolved the party as much as

:22:31.:22:37.

Scotland. The Scottish party, in 1999 it was a tremendous opportunity

:22:38.:22:40.

for the Scottish Labour Party but I don't think we have caught up with

:22:41.:22:55.

that. I think under Kesia's leadership she is refreshing that.

:22:56.:23:05.

You face further electoral disasters in Holyrood in May. No one is under

:23:06.:23:13.

any illusion this will be a difficult election, but what Kesia

:23:14.:23:20.

is trying to do is get a positive policy platform together, reconnect

:23:21.:23:23.

with Scottish people, respond to what Scottish people have been

:23:24.:23:27.

saying on the doorsteps, and she's doing that on the basis of

:23:28.:23:31.

responding to what the Scottish people want. That's what people want

:23:32.:23:37.

to have. What the Shadow Cabinet was told by your own election director

:23:38.:23:44.

is that he expects you to lose all of your constituency MSPs, just as

:23:45.:23:49.

you lost all of your constituency MPs bar you last May. What can you

:23:50.:23:55.

do to avoid that? The important thing is to go back to Kezia

:23:56.:24:06.

Dugdale's policy. She wants to change the policies of the Scottish

:24:07.:24:11.

Labour Party in order for us to have a policy platform that is incredibly

:24:12.:24:18.

positive. What is the most distinctive Scottish policy

:24:19.:24:22.

initiative since Jeremy Corbyn became leader? This isn't about

:24:23.:24:27.

Jeremy Corbyn, it is about Kezia Dugdale. We have helped to buy

:24:28.:24:32.

scheme for first time buyers, we want to build 60,000 affordable

:24:33.:24:37.

homes, we want to put the 50p tax rate back in to close the

:24:38.:24:41.

educational attainment gap, they are just a few of the policies she has

:24:42.:24:46.

announced already. She is one of the few people in this election campaign

:24:47.:24:51.

actually talking about the policy issues of Scotland. Nobody is

:24:52.:24:56.

talking about these kinds of issues. Do you think that collection

:24:57.:24:59.

policies you have outlined are enough to stave off a further

:25:00.:25:04.

electoral humiliation? It is just the start of a policy platform she

:25:05.:25:08.

will be announcing in the run-up to the elections. Help to buy is a Tory

:25:09.:25:16.

policy. This is about resolving a housing crisis that has been created

:25:17.:25:20.

by an SNP government. We are not holding them to account because

:25:21.:25:28.

people are obsessing over things like polls. The transport system is

:25:29.:25:33.

creaking at the seams. This has got to be dealt with and there is a real

:25:34.:25:37.

opportunity to talk about the powers the Scottish Government currently

:25:38.:25:42.

has and new powers. Let's talk about tomorrow's Scotland. How much would

:25:43.:25:48.

a top rate 50p tax for Scotland raised? Up to 10 million, depending

:25:49.:25:54.

where you would have any change but every single penny would go into

:25:55.:25:58.

educational attainment. When the Conservatives cut the tax rate to

:25:59.:26:06.

45p, the Treasury were projecting it would cost ?3 billion a year to

:26:07.:26:10.

satisfy. That was for the whole of the UK, so 60-110,000,000 is a lot

:26:11.:26:17.

of money we can use to cut the educational attainment gap. Why is

:26:18.:26:26.

Jeremy Corbyn not cutting much ice north of the border? He has won a

:26:27.:26:30.

significant mandate within the party, he needs to win that now

:26:31.:26:34.

within the country but what we are concentrating on now is Kezia

:26:35.:26:41.

Dugdale as a new leader. I am interesting that you stress all the

:26:42.:26:49.

time Kezia Dugdale, is Jeremy Corbyn and asset or a liability in May? He

:26:50.:26:58.

is an asset because she wants us to invest in public services, he wants

:26:59.:27:01.

to use the powers in the Scottish bill to transform the Scottish

:27:02.:27:07.

Parliament... So why are the polls, if you have got Kezia Dugdale and

:27:08.:27:15.

Jeremy Corbyn doing all the right things, why are the polls so dire

:27:16.:27:21.

for you in Scotland? We will fight for every single vote and seat, we

:27:22.:27:25.

fight to win every election but whilst we are talking about polls

:27:26.:27:29.

and not holding the Scottish Government to account for a dreadful

:27:30.:27:32.

record in Government for eight years and not talking about positive

:27:33.:27:37.

policies being put forward, we will not get any traction in the polls.

:27:38.:27:41.

Let's get this campaign onto real issues that ordinary Scots want to

:27:42.:27:46.

talk about on the doorsteps, which is about holding the Government to

:27:47.:27:50.

account for a dreadful track record, and get some policies on there that

:27:51.:27:54.

says to the people the Scottish Labour Party has changed and we can

:27:55.:28:00.

talk about tomorrow's Scotland and how we can transform people's lives.

:28:01.:28:02.

Thank you. The huge influx of migrants

:28:03.:28:05.

into the EU from Syria and elsewhere is putting the future

:28:06.:28:08.

of the EU in "grave danger", that was the stark warning

:28:09.:28:10.

from the French Prime Minister Tomorrow, EU interior ministers

:28:11.:28:12.

will discuss a possible two-year suspension of the Schengen system

:28:13.:28:16.

of passport-free travel. It all comes as David Cameron seeks

:28:17.:28:17.

to put the finishing touches to a new deal for the UK

:28:18.:28:20.

inside the EU before But how is the migrant crisis

:28:21.:28:23.

affecting his renegotiation? Since January 2015, nearly 1.1

:28:24.:28:28.

million migrants have arrived in Europe, the vast

:28:29.:28:31.

majority coming by sea. The International Monetary Fund

:28:32.:28:33.

estimates that nearly 4 million migrants will have reached

:28:34.:28:37.

the EU by the end of 2017. Tomorrow, EU interior ministers

:28:38.:28:43.

will discuss a possible suspension of the passport-free Schengen area

:28:44.:28:45.

and the re-introduction of border The EU is also considering tearing

:28:46.:28:48.

up the so-called Dublin Convention and introducing a new dispersal

:28:49.:28:57.

scheme to distribute migrants more It's an extra headache

:28:58.:28:59.

for David Cameron as he seeks to renegotiate the terms

:29:00.:29:06.

of our membership of the EU. The Prime Minister's preferred

:29:07.:29:11.

option is a four-year ban on new EU migrant workers claiming

:29:12.:29:14.

in-work benefits. But that's unlikely to satisfy many

:29:15.:29:18.

Conservative backbenchers. Former Cabinet minister Liam Fox,

:29:19.:29:22.

who has already said he will campaign to leave the EU,

:29:23.:29:26.

said yesterday that he "didn't expect a British prime minister

:29:27.:29:28.

to have to take the political begging bowl around the capitals

:29:29.:29:32.

of Europe just to change our own Over the next three weekends

:29:33.:29:35.

we will be staging three debates Joining me now to discuss

:29:36.:29:42.

immigration and the EU are the Ukip MEP Diane James, who's campaigning

:29:43.:29:47.

for Britain to leave the EU, and the Conservative MP

:29:48.:29:49.

Damian Green, who supports The French prime ministers as the

:29:50.:30:06.

future the EU is in grave danger, so why would we want to stay in it? --

:30:07.:30:12.

Prime Minister says. It is useful to as, it makes us safer and more

:30:13.:30:15.

secure and more prosperous and therefore it is worth saving, from

:30:16.:30:19.

our perspective and to the other member countries. Why does it make

:30:20.:30:25.

us more secure? The way that we cooperate with other European

:30:26.:30:28.

countries, the European institutions, things like the

:30:29.:30:32.

European arrest warrant, data share, these are very useful to our police

:30:33.:30:37.

and security services. We share data with the United States, as well. But

:30:38.:30:41.

not on the same automatic basis as we do with Europe. There is

:30:42.:30:46.

automatic sharing of intelligence between Britain and the United

:30:47.:30:51.

States. There is can we have a separate treaty with them, it is not

:30:52.:30:55.

as automatic and quick. -- there is, we have a separate treaty. We can

:30:56.:30:59.

change information within minutes with other European countries, and

:31:00.:31:07.

it takes days and weeks with other countries, and that means in cases

:31:08.:31:13.

of terrorism and sadly we live in a dangerous world, with global

:31:14.:31:17.

terrorism, that kind of European cooperation is increasingly

:31:18.:31:25.

important. Diane, we face a migration crisis, what is your

:31:26.:31:28.

solution, to turn Britain into a fortress Britain? No, it isn't, but

:31:29.:31:35.

it is to regain border control for the United Kingdom, and that is a

:31:36.:31:40.

position endorsed by a number of countries, and number of member

:31:41.:31:44.

states across the EU, you have five countries which every imposed border

:31:45.:31:48.

controls to some extent. There is still free movement of people.

:31:49.:31:52.

France said last week they will extend their border control, their

:31:53.:31:55.

passport control as an emergency measure because of the terrorist

:31:56.:31:59.

attacks in Paris. Border control is needed because under the current

:32:00.:32:05.

system freedom of movement, people, services, transport, that also means

:32:06.:32:09.

freedom of movement for terrorists and weapons, that come from the

:32:10.:32:13.

Balkan states. We don't have border controls? Yes, but not sufficient,

:32:14.:32:17.

if someone comes in from the Mediterranean states or from the

:32:18.:32:22.

Balkan states, they have gained entry into the European member zone.

:32:23.:32:27.

They can't then move around. If they get their passport, ultimately...

:32:28.:32:35.

That can take ten years. It is five years in Germany, it can be granted

:32:36.:32:39.

sooner if the Dublin agreement is changed and asylum seekers get a

:32:40.:32:43.

faster processing, they can then come to the United Kingdom. It is

:32:44.:32:48.

not five years in Germany, it is a comment if you have a criminal

:32:49.:32:52.

record, you can't get one, and the things that Niger Farage was saying

:32:53.:32:56.

about the scenes in Cologne, that was wrong. -- Nigel. The out

:32:57.:33:03.

campaign is saying that border controls are what we need, strong

:33:04.:33:07.

border controls, and pulling out of Europe would have the practical

:33:08.:33:10.

effect, our border controls which act have a, thanks to the treaty

:33:11.:33:14.

with the French government, they would certainly come back to Dover

:33:15.:33:19.

-- our border controls which we have at Calais. Migrants would find it

:33:20.:33:23.

much easier to get to this country and claim asylum here. But if they

:33:24.:33:29.

couldn't get in, they did not qualify, we would have the power to

:33:30.:33:35.

deport them? We were, after a legal process, but they would be stopped

:33:36.:33:39.

not at Calais, it would be at Dover, when they are in Britain, and once

:33:40.:33:43.

they are here they can claim asylum and because we have proper legal

:33:44.:33:47.

processes it takes a lot of time and expense to deal with that. He has

:33:48.:33:51.

all the accused me of getting my facts wrong, but he has got his

:33:52.:33:55.

facts wrong. The agreement in terms of stationing our teams and our

:33:56.:33:59.

support staff and control, in the French ports, that is a France UK

:34:00.:34:04.

agreement, it has nothing to do with the European Union. If you are

:34:05.:34:08.

suggesting that the agreement between France and the United

:34:09.:34:14.

Kingdom gets torn up because we leave the EU, that is fanciful and

:34:15.:34:16.

misleading and I don't agree with you. France signed the treatment

:34:17.:34:22.

with us as a fellow member of the EU and the French interior minister has

:34:23.:34:26.

said that they would look at the treaty, of course it would be at

:34:27.:34:29.

risk, do you think the people of Calais want that camp on their

:34:30.:34:35.

doorstep? Of course not. The French are doing us a favour. How would the

:34:36.:34:40.

renegotiation by the Prime Minister help address any of this? The area

:34:41.:34:46.

of renegotiation and this is about the extra pull factor that comes

:34:47.:34:50.

from the perception that the British benefits system is easier to access

:34:51.:34:55.

compared with other countries, and therefore there are people coming

:34:56.:35:00.

here simply to make the benefits system and I think what many people

:35:01.:35:03.

think about immigration, they are moral axed about people coming here

:35:04.:35:08.

to work and pay taxes but they don't like people coming to use the

:35:09.:35:12.

welfare system -- they are more relaxed. But it has been said this

:35:13.:35:18.

will not have a big impact, you might marginalise one pull factor,

:35:19.:35:23.

but with rises in the national minimum wage, you have increased the

:35:24.:35:27.

pull factor on the other hand. It's a boiler fairness, that is what --

:35:28.:35:33.

that is a boiler fairness, that is what people want... It is unlikely

:35:34.:35:38.

to have a big impact. This will have very little impact on the numbers. I

:35:39.:35:44.

think people can make a distinction between those who are coming here to

:35:45.:35:48.

work, who benefit our economy and benefit all of us. But we have

:35:49.:35:54.

agreed it is unlikely, even if it is fair, it is unlikely to have any

:35:55.:35:56.

impact on the numbers. We don't know. The OBR has had a good guess.

:35:57.:36:04.

They are guessing, it is a guess. Nigel Farage said he would cut

:36:05.:36:10.

immigration even if that meant lower economic growth, do you agree? There

:36:11.:36:15.

are two parts to your question, George Osborne has predicated his

:36:16.:36:22.

fiscal strategy on high numbers of immigration, but we have done this

:36:23.:36:26.

on individuals who come here on a points system to deliver real value

:36:27.:36:29.

to this country, who are not subsidised by the tax credit option

:36:30.:36:35.

and who actually meet the needs that we have in the United Kingdom, and

:36:36.:36:40.

currently, as we know, we want engineers and medics and nurses and

:36:41.:36:45.

lawyers. Ukip strategy has never been to stop those individuals

:36:46.:36:48.

coming, but what we are saying, the impact of low skilled immigration on

:36:49.:36:53.

this country is negative. That is our position. Even if it meant slow

:36:54.:36:59.

economic growth, you would still cut the numbers? It would not mean

:37:00.:37:06.

slower economic growth. We have made our position very clear in terms of

:37:07.:37:10.

the value of the money that we would not be paying in terms of membership

:37:11.:37:16.

of the EU, coming back to the United Kingdom's economy, and balancing the

:37:17.:37:20.

whole position, that would be a positive for us as a country. The

:37:21.:37:25.

Prime Minister has refused to leave a group of 40 Eurosceptic

:37:26.:37:30.

backbenchers in the Conservative Party, who want to asking to do much

:37:31.:37:36.

more. Should he not make them? The Prime Minister meets backbenchers

:37:37.:37:39.

all the time. He has not meant this group, they wrote to him in November

:37:40.:37:43.

and he has not met them. -- he has not met this group. Anyone who would

:37:44.:37:48.

like to meet the Prime Minister has ample opportunities to do so, I'm a

:37:49.:37:52.

backbencher, I can speak to the Prime Minister, and all of these

:37:53.:37:56.

points have been raised. It is possible that this story is slightly

:37:57.:38:02.

overblown. Thank you very much. We will be coming back to these stories

:38:03.:38:04.

in the weeks ahead. And next week we'll be debating

:38:05.:38:06.

the economic effects of leaving It's just gone 11.35,

:38:07.:38:09.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:10.:38:13.

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics

:38:14.:38:15.

in Northern Ireland. With the welfare mitigation

:38:16.:38:32.

issue seemingly resolved, Or have politicians

:38:33.:38:33.

abandoned the vulnerable? That's what I'll be asking

:38:34.:38:39.

Sinn Fein and the SDLP. Plus, as Presbyterians discuss

:38:40.:38:42.

the 1916 anniversaries, the Republic's Minister responsible

:38:43.:38:47.

for the commemorations reveals her plans for

:38:48.:38:49.

this landmark year. And with their thoughts

:38:50.:38:51.

on all of that and more - Fionnuala O'Connor

:38:52.:38:54.

and Paul Gosling... It once threatened the existence

:38:55.:39:02.

of Stormont itself, but now the welfare issue has apparently

:39:03.:39:06.

been put to bed with the publication of a report this week outlining how

:39:07.:39:09.

mitigations will work. While the report was broadly

:39:10.:39:12.

welcomed, it's clear some benefit recipients could lose out under

:39:13.:39:15.

planned welfare changes. With me now is Sinn Fein's John

:39:16.:39:19.

O'Dowd and the SDLP's Alex Sinn Fein's line was always that no

:39:20.:39:22.

benefit recipient would be allowed It's clear people are going to lose

:39:23.:39:27.

out despite those pledges... We were faced with a scenario. The

:39:28.:39:42.

British government were going to take over welfare reform, the role

:39:43.:39:51.

of the executive, it would have collapsed, so Sinn Fein have made a

:39:52.:39:56.

correct decision. Concluding the peace process, should we collapse

:39:57.:40:05.

the executive? You don't see that you were going to do that at one

:40:06.:40:12.

point. Passing the legislation, more to do with timing than policy. In

:40:13.:40:24.

terms of the journey, it is better balance with local politicians,

:40:25.:40:31.

boundaries of appeals, and the report has set out it the measures,

:40:32.:40:39.

existing nowhere else. You over promised.

:40:40.:40:40.

Gerry Adams said in January 2015, one year ago...

:40:41.:40:42.

"No one will have any benefit reduced which is under the authority

:40:43.:40:45.

That was our key point on this issue."

:40:46.:40:49.

Conor Murphy, December 2014: "What we've done is ensure

:40:50.:40:51.

that those who suffer will be picked up by a system devised by us -

:40:52.:40:54.

What we wanted to achieve, it has to be against the political reality. We

:40:55.:41:08.

were involved in negotiation, with other parties, few of them committed

:41:09.:41:16.

to bringing forward proposals, the issue has become so toxic, it was on

:41:17.:41:23.

the day job collapsing political institutions. In the broader sense,

:41:24.:41:28.

protecting public services, to maintain institutions. Did Sinn Fein

:41:29.:41:42.

overpromise? If every person said that nobody was going to be losing

:41:43.:41:51.

out, but now people are going to be, they overpromised. But it is the

:41:52.:42:05.

preposterous idea, to travel, it is not a matter of policy, because of

:42:06.:42:12.

that decision Sinn Fein, signing up to these benefit freezers, the Mike

:42:13.:42:26.

-- freezes and this week, charity groups have been arguing against the

:42:27.:42:35.

proposals, so not only as a bizarre place, in the year of 1916,

:42:36.:42:44.

Republicans giving power back to London, it was the technicality, and

:42:45.:42:48.

it has impact on citizens, when we could have control. The more

:42:49.:42:56.

interesting question, what did the SDLP deliver? Nothing. Welcoming the

:42:57.:43:11.

report. SDLP voted against the fresh start, and last week, against the

:43:12.:43:18.

budget. Spending half ?1 billion, protecting citizens. Those measures,

:43:19.:43:31.

scaremongering, it rests with the assembly. All powers rest with the

:43:32.:43:42.

assembly. It is difficult to argue against what has been said, you want

:43:43.:43:49.

your cake and eat it. You did not vote for the budget? I support the

:43:50.:44:03.

work. I support what she did. Put meat on proposals. Last year, and

:44:04.:44:15.

the welfare reform discussions, the DUP and Sinn Fein voted them down.

:44:16.:44:19.

That included the abolition of the bedroom tax. So on. It is not the

:44:20.:44:30.

case, to pretend that what Sinn Fein agreed, is about timelines, it is

:44:31.:44:41.

about reductions, taking money out of the pockets. But be have tried to

:44:42.:44:47.

mitigate those difficulties, and the best possible way, with as much

:44:48.:44:52.

money as is available? It is easy to sit on the sidelines. They are

:44:53.:45:00.

having to deal with the issues. We welcome what has been said. How

:45:01.:45:11.

would you fund it? You voted against the budget. No alternative. Out of

:45:12.:45:20.

the current budget. You didn't vote for it! We produce an alternative.

:45:21.:45:29.

That does not mean, they oppose every measure. If you want to see

:45:30.:45:35.

what we have produced, looked at the documents, in the recent

:45:36.:45:43.

negotiations, the most extensive, unlike Sinn Fein, handing over now

:45:44.:45:49.

documents. Do not be misled. Sinn Fein are trying to sell the past on

:45:50.:46:02.

welfare, surrendering to London, creating a fog around the fact that

:46:03.:46:06.

when it comes to people in Northern Ireland, not as much mitigation as

:46:07.:46:11.

promised. It does nothing about the proposals that they have signed up

:46:12.:46:14.

to, going to Westminster, impacting on policy. At no time during that

:46:15.:46:24.

lengthy contribution, as he outlined how the SDLP would treat the

:46:25.:46:38.

situation. Why is this happening? Sinn Fein step forward, how are they

:46:39.:46:55.

being funded? Let's broaden this. You promised people, a great deal.

:46:56.:47:05.

You have deliver less. You could be punished for that. It is a lot less

:47:06.:47:11.

than people thought they were going to be. The deal that people are

:47:12.:47:17.

going to get, it is good to last 12 months. The electorate is going to

:47:18.:47:23.

make decisions. Based on informed debate. That is what democracy is

:47:24.:47:30.

about. Sinn Fein will defend the position. The mitigations, set out

:47:31.:47:35.

for 12 months, but the most important part, that the sanctions

:47:36.:47:43.

being imposed, in England, having the most devastating impact. What we

:47:44.:47:50.

have introduced, it is a support package, to have an appeals process,

:47:51.:48:04.

laptop, -- backed up... It buys people time. You also, within the

:48:05.:48:21.

SDLP, could be punished. In out approach to welfare. No. All of what

:48:22.:48:30.

has just been opened, Intel's mitigation, it has no impact upon

:48:31.:48:41.

the welfare changes coming across, because of the bill. Falsehood.

:48:42.:48:51.

Secondly, a lot of the principles of the proposals, established in the

:48:52.:48:59.

chamber, one years ago, when we said we should have protection for people

:49:00.:49:05.

on benefit conflicts, changes in the benefit caps, all of those... DUP

:49:06.:49:18.

and Sinn Fein voted them down. So when people make the choice, they

:49:19.:49:22.

will have to remember who flip flopped. And those who brought

:49:23.:49:30.

forward crafted proposals. Those who protect the devolution settlement.

:49:31.:49:39.

Those opposed to benefit freezes and those who endorsed them. That is why

:49:40.:49:44.

Martin McGuinness, going back to Derry. That is a different issue.

:49:45.:49:58.

You can fool some people some time, not all the people all the time.

:49:59.:50:04.

People are going to make up their own mind.

:50:05.:50:20.

Do you think the recommendations make sense? She is a good socialist,

:50:21.:50:31.

producing reports, in 1981, on single parents, battered women. Both

:50:32.:50:39.

of them, the most deprived sections, that long ago. She produced a solid

:50:40.:50:52.

piece of work, a woman in a male dominated world. And she has done

:50:53.:51:00.

this well. But this question, it is a distraction. Gerry Adams used that

:51:01.:51:13.

world. In that heated discussion, as John's voice got louder, Alex Atwood

:51:14.:51:24.

struggled, that the proposals, related to those documents, neither

:51:25.:51:28.

of them can make the case that is going to matter on the doorsteps.

:51:29.:51:34.

Especially if people are already feeling hit by cuts. It is

:51:35.:51:40.

describing efforts, to mitigate the situation, that the administration

:51:41.:51:47.

can do little about. Do you get a sense, it is going to become an

:51:48.:51:52.

issue on the doorsteps, and that people understand precisely what it

:51:53.:52:08.

is, Eileen Evason? Eileen Evason's report this excellent, but it does

:52:09.:52:19.

not achieve, the impossible, if you promised the impossible you cannot

:52:20.:52:22.

deliver. That is going to be a political issue. It is a

:52:23.:52:27.

distraction, from unionism, that is what they should be concentrating

:52:28.:52:34.

on. Unionists said that we have no choice, Tory policy, we ought to

:52:35.:52:43.

stay in line with Britain. They have moved, the bedroom tax has gone,

:52:44.:52:47.

this is the sort of thing that Sinn Fein should be concentrating on, but

:52:48.:52:53.

these conservative policies, accepted to a degree, by all of them

:52:54.:53:00.

because they had to. But also mitigated, DUP moved from defending

:53:01.:53:04.

that. It is going to make for some interesting battles. A new

:53:05.:53:15.

constituency, west Belfast as well? Absolutely. Interesting political

:53:16.:53:22.

battles. Large levels of poverty. I think people are going to be angry,

:53:23.:53:24.

about these unfathomable promises. Next to the Easter Rising

:53:25.:53:28.

and the Somme - part of 'our shared narrative across this shared land' -

:53:29.:53:32.

the words of Fine Gael Minister Heather Humphreys on a visit

:53:33.:53:34.

to Belfast this week. The Minister, who's overseeing

:53:35.:53:42.

the centenary of the 1916 Rising, has a few shared narratives herself,

:53:43.:53:44.

with a grand-father who signed Nevertheless, I asked her if her

:53:45.:53:47.

notion of a 'shared history' isn't a little idealistic when there

:53:48.:53:52.

are so many competing I live on the border. I am conscious

:53:53.:54:06.

of sensitivities. But it's 100 years ago. We should hear the stories. The

:54:07.:54:11.

historical facts. We have a lot of misinformation. A lot of people came

:54:12.:54:25.

forward. They didn't realise great grand uncles were in the war. It is

:54:26.:54:33.

about the personal stories. Impact. 1916. And we have the chance, to

:54:34.:54:42.

look back. Can you see why some people are uncomfortable, with

:54:43.:54:47.

anything that looks like a celebration of rebuilding, against

:54:48.:54:51.

the British presence? That is one thing I want to be freed about. This

:54:52.:54:57.

is not a celebration. It is not triumphalism. It is a commemoration.

:54:58.:55:02.

Remembering, listening to the stories. There's going to be a wall.

:55:03.:55:09.

With all the names, of people who lost lives in the Easter Rising.

:55:10.:55:16.

Many civilians, members of the British Army, a lot of those were

:55:17.:55:27.

Irish. Stories to be told. And I think when people reflect, you get a

:55:28.:55:34.

better understanding. Northern Ireland's new First Minister has

:55:35.:55:37.

expressed reservations, about taking part in formal name originates, of

:55:38.:55:45.

1916. She is going to attend an event, to discuss historical

:55:46.:55:47.

context, but will not formally commemorate what has happened, can

:55:48.:55:54.

you see how she has come to that view? I respect that, but I am glad

:55:55.:56:00.

that she said that she will be coming, having a debate, I am

:56:01.:56:05.

pleased and I'm sure we will have many events that she will be able to

:56:06.:56:15.

attend. Comfortable in attending. If a teacher comes up with the right

:56:16.:56:18.

invitation, she will accept. There is that going to happen? The two

:56:19.:56:31.

Bishops... They have come together. They are going to have an event,

:56:32.:56:38.

bringing the children, both sides of the border, together. It is an

:56:39.:56:48.

event, involving art, music, and they are going to be telling the

:56:49.:56:53.

stories, starting from 1916. It goes to the Good Friday agreement. That

:56:54.:57:01.

is going to involve children. That, for example, is one event that both

:57:02.:57:10.

of us would love to be attending. The battle of the Somme centenary.

:57:11.:57:17.

July. Do you see that being commemorated? By weight

:57:18.:57:23.

cross-sections. So many Irishmen, died in that battle. Perhaps that

:57:24.:57:31.

could be another event, that people could come with us, and joint, to

:57:32.:57:38.

commemorate those who most lights. -- lives. The Irish state failed

:57:39.:57:52.

when they returned from the trenches? Are you having to correct

:57:53.:57:59.

mistakes by predecessors? They came home, to a different Ireland. I was

:58:00.:58:09.

agonising, two years ago, and this man I knew... His name was Kevin. He

:58:10.:58:17.

said that was a fantastic day. It means so much to me. Tears down his

:58:18.:58:22.

face. means so much to me. Tears down his

:58:23.:58:33.

came back from the world war, and never spoke about it. He said a

:58:34.:58:36.

wrong had been made right. That is what is important. You seem to

:58:37.:58:44.

personify the complexity of identity, you described yourself as

:58:45.:58:48.

a pro-Irish republican, attending orange order parades, that this

:58:49.:58:57.

complex? I attend cultural events, in my constituency, bands come and

:58:58.:59:07.

play. From Northern Ireland, Monaghan, it is a cultural event

:59:08.:59:12.

that I absolutely enjoyed. People come from all traditions, that is

:59:13.:59:17.

inclusive. How do you think politicians are doing, in Northern

:59:18.:59:20.

Ireland? Do you think the meeting enough of an effort? It takes time.

:59:21.:59:30.

We are making progress all the time. It is by going to these events, GAA

:59:31.:59:42.

matches, dispelling myths. I would encourage people to come together,

:59:43.:59:49.

go to different events. We have a lot more in common than we have that

:59:50.:59:51.

separates us. Heather Humphreys flying the flag

:59:52.:59:52.

for cross-community encounter. Now, let's take a look back

:59:53.:59:54.

at the political week in 60 seconds Martin McGuinness on the move. He

:59:55.:00:11.

will be running, as Sinn Fein target more assembly seats. DUP made it

:00:12.:00:17.

clear Northern Ireland must be leaving the European Union. We would

:00:18.:00:24.

be better outside. The budget has been voted through for the next

:00:25.:00:29.

year. This represents a balanced budget, no level of overcommitment,

:00:30.:00:34.

for many years. Changes to the welfare system moving closer. This

:00:35.:00:41.

would mean Northern Ireland is better prepared, to enable

:00:42.:00:48.

vulnerable people to avoid hardship. Firefighters came to Stormont, to

:00:49.:00:52.

protest against cuts, and the finance minister was reminded of his

:00:53.:01:00.

roots. The financial prudence, except when it comes to considering

:01:01.:01:02.

projects themselves. And let's have a final word

:01:03.:01:18.

from Fionnuala and Paul... candidate in the hot seat, until

:01:19.:01:19.

then, back to you, Andrew. Can David Cameron keep his party

:01:20.:01:27.

together in the run-up Will the SNP stymie the PM's

:01:28.:01:32.

plans for a summer vote? And who will go along to

:01:33.:01:35.

John McDonnell's economics roadshow? Nick, Damian Green downplayed the 40

:01:36.:01:52.

Eurosceptics who have written to the Prime Minister, asking for a

:01:53.:01:58.

meeting. Is he right? Is there a serious division for the Tories? It

:01:59.:02:02.

was a very diplomatic response from Damian Green, but what Downing

:02:03.:02:05.

Street would say about the letter from John Barron, what is the point

:02:06.:02:09.

of meeting him and his 40 merry friends, because I want to get

:02:10.:02:12.

Britain out and they have always wanted to do so and the demands they

:02:13.:02:16.

are tabling in that letter, to have primacy of the UK Parliament over EU

:02:17.:02:20.

law is not in the negotiation and is not going to happen, but there is a

:02:21.:02:26.

port in point. David Cameron was dismissive of John Barron in the

:02:27.:02:29.

House of Commons and he needs to maybe occasionally show a bit more

:02:30.:02:33.

charm and listening to those kind of people. -- important point. They are

:02:34.:02:38.

on the other side of the prime Minster, but he has got to manage

:02:39.:02:41.

the process carefully and he needs to avoid a civil war, and he can

:02:42.:02:45.

avoid that if all sides are respected in this debate. Presumably

:02:46.:02:51.

the 40 that signed our hard-core Eurosceptic but there are more

:02:52.:02:57.

Eurosceptics. Even if David Cameron gets all of what he is asking for,

:02:58.:03:02.

how many Conservative MPs will still want to come out? Going back to the

:03:03.:03:07.

John Barenboim, the 40 that have signed that letter, Downing Street

:03:08.:03:14.

have put them to one side -- John Barron point. The battle for the

:03:15.:03:18.

party, what do you do with those, maybe a third of the party, that

:03:19.:03:28.

would be minded to leave, maybe 100-100 and 50 MPs, George Osborne

:03:29.:03:31.

was talking about emergency brakes on legislation, if things are coming

:03:32.:03:34.

through from Brussels which the British don't want. They still think

:03:35.:03:40.

that the negotiation really is in play and what we have to do is try

:03:41.:03:44.

and pick off moderate Eurosceptics and give them a package which they

:03:45.:03:50.

can get behind and then we need to accept that there will be 40

:03:51.:03:53.

hard-core people that we could never placate. In the David Cameron

:03:54.:03:58.

nightmare, that is the potential backdrop to the referendum, the

:03:59.:04:02.

French Prime Minister has said Europe is in grave danger and we

:04:03.:04:07.

have had President task of the council say that we have only got a

:04:08.:04:11.

couple of months to sort out the immigration issue -- Donald Tusk.

:04:12.:04:15.

The Dutch Prime Minister has given warnings, as well. If there's a

:04:16.:04:20.

sense that Europe is falling especially regarding migration,

:04:21.:04:24.

Schengen is swept away, as it might be tomorrow, that is not a way to

:04:25.:04:30.

win a referendum. It is a huge advantage for the Brexit campaign

:04:31.:04:33.

and it distinguishes them from their predecessors of 20 years ago,

:04:34.:04:37.

leaving the EU back then was seen as a pessimistic thing to do, but now

:04:38.:04:41.

you can almost support Brexit because you think, why chain

:04:42.:04:45.

yourself to a continent which is losing, when there's so much

:04:46.:04:51.

dynamism in the world elsewhere? The characteristic of the Brexit

:04:52.:04:54.

campaign is the challenge David Cameron has got to summer, it cannot

:04:55.:04:57.

say they are entirely insular any more. -- has got to surmount. I

:04:58.:05:04.

thought the internal Tory problem with the explosive, if not a big

:05:05.:05:11.

split, but like a rolling crisis from the 1990s, but I no longer

:05:12.:05:14.

think that is true, the fact they know they can expect to be in

:05:15.:05:18.

government until at least 2025, they can maintain basic adhesion because

:05:19.:05:23.

of the weakness of the Labour Party and that is a contrast with the 90s

:05:24.:05:29.

-- basic cohesion. Cameron will look like he is losing control, but there

:05:30.:05:33.

will not be anything existential going on for the party. We believe

:05:34.:05:39.

the government is anxious to get it out of the way by the end of June,

:05:40.:05:43.

may be the first week of July. Nicola Sturgeon said some

:05:44.:05:47.

interesting things on the Andrew Marr show, about the timetable for

:05:48.:05:55.

the referendum. We had a negative feeling campaign from the no

:05:56.:05:58.

campaign and they almost lost, in the referendum for Europe, the

:05:59.:06:03.

campaigns are much closer to start with, and if the in campaign falls

:06:04.:06:07.

into the trap of the no campaign I fear it will lose. Nicola Sturgeon

:06:08.:06:15.

has said that she does not want a June referendum and she feels that

:06:16.:06:19.

is too soon. You can say, that is the view of the First Minister, she

:06:20.:06:23.

doesn't have a vote in parliament, but it have more significance. I was

:06:24.:06:29.

briefed last week by senior Scottish Nationalist who said this, "Many

:06:30.:06:35.

conservatives will not want a June referendum and the risk epics want

:06:36.:06:42.

more time to layout their case -- Eurosceptics want more time to

:06:43.:06:48.

layout their case". The Scottish Nationalists will not help to vote

:06:49.:06:56.

by voting for a June referendum. The SNP could try and turn this into a

:06:57.:07:00.

vote in the house and then it depends on what Labour do, do they

:07:01.:07:04.

want to have it in June or later? I think the Eurosceptics are so

:07:05.:07:08.

focused on trying to get this referendum through, I don't think

:07:09.:07:15.

them as long as they feel they have the campaign in time that they want,

:07:16.:07:19.

the four-month period, I think they will go for it. I'm not sure that is

:07:20.:07:26.

true. Given the divisions in the Eurosceptics side at the moment, and

:07:27.:07:31.

the out campaign, I think they need longer to get there ducks in a row

:07:32.:07:36.

and they feel the best time for them to fight is after there has been

:07:37.:07:43.

another major migration crisis in the summer, people will not on their

:07:44.:07:46.

side of the ardent when that happens. That might be true. -- of

:07:47.:07:55.

the argument. But they cannot argue for a delay in some ways, but I do

:07:56.:08:00.

feel that Nicola Sturgeon's intervention is significant and the

:08:01.:08:03.

pressure on the Prime Minister to listen to what she is saying, will

:08:04.:08:06.

not so much come in parliament, it could come from the electoral

:08:07.:08:09.

commission, which has already said they cannot have the referendum in

:08:10.:08:13.

May as the same time as the devolved elections, and if you have Nicola

:08:14.:08:19.

Sturgeon, Arlene Foster, the First Minister of Northern Ireland, and

:08:20.:08:22.

Karen Jones can be First Minister of Wales Coulibaly said they think this

:08:23.:08:26.

is over complicating -- First Minister of Wales, if they all said

:08:27.:08:31.

they think this is over, catering, because it would happen at the same

:08:32.:08:36.

time as the devolved elections -- if they all said this is

:08:37.:08:40.

overcompensated. That would be significant, we could be bouncing

:08:41.:08:45.

into September. They have said they do not want the overlap, there

:08:46.:08:49.

should be a clear gap between the referendum campaign and the local

:08:50.:08:53.

elections, the assembly come and the Parliamentary elections in Scotland.

:08:54.:09:00.

They have a low view of the ability of the electorate to distinguish

:09:01.:09:02.

between elections, I do think Nicolas -- Nicola Sturgeon is an

:09:03.:09:11.

obstacle, but the biggest obstacle will be David Cameron and what he

:09:12.:09:16.

can get from the EU. You don't think it will be a done deal pretty much

:09:17.:09:23.

they are putting a lot of weight white -- you don't think it will be

:09:24.:09:29.

a done deal? They are putting a lot of weight on one summit, but the

:09:30.:09:32.

next summit that matters, it only takes one delay for us to move

:09:33.:09:36.

beyond June and then into September. I thought 2017 would be more likely,

:09:37.:09:40.

I have slightly revised that view, but I don't think June is possible.

:09:41.:09:52.

We have leave, and several out campaigns, and we have got one which

:09:53.:10:00.

is called grassroots out. Liam Fox, Conservative, Nigel Farage, Kate

:10:01.:10:05.

Hoey from Labour was there, it was launched yesterday. At some stage

:10:06.:10:12.

they have got to consult them if they want to be serious and marshal

:10:13.:10:15.

their resources, they have got to have a single campaign? And by law

:10:16.:10:21.

they have got through, the electoral commission is going to have two

:10:22.:10:25.

designate a campaign on either side. It is pretty clear that the inside

:10:26.:10:30.

are coalescing around the Britain stronger in Europe group, but on the

:10:31.:10:33.

outside there is not that agreement and there is feuding between these

:10:34.:10:36.

groups and they're going to have to reach agreement. The problem they

:10:37.:10:40.

have, who is going to lead them? Nigel Lawson is a key figure and he

:10:41.:10:44.

says they will get a senior Cabinet minister, but I said the most senior

:10:45.:10:48.

Cabinet minister who will go for Brexit, in Duncan Smith, do his own

:10:49.:10:52.

thing, which leaves you with Chris Grayling -- Iain Duncan Smith. And

:10:53.:10:59.

also Theresa Villiers. They will go up against the leader of the in

:11:00.:11:06.

campaign who is someone called David Cameron, and so they really do need

:11:07.:11:10.

to get unity. Vote Labour say they are more grown-up, -- vote leave say

:11:11.:11:19.

they are more grown-up, for example. Some are said to me the other day

:11:20.:11:23.

that Chris Grayling's view is that many senior figures in the party

:11:24.:11:29.

should be voices. In other words he was suggesting he did not want to

:11:30.:11:32.

leave and they would not be one senior Cabinet minister that was

:11:33.:11:35.

going to champion it which gives them another problem. The

:11:36.:11:39.

organisational, factional differences make much less

:11:40.:11:46.

difference in who you have as your voice, it could be a very prominent

:11:47.:11:49.

businessperson, for example, the head of a major company. Who knows

:11:50.:11:58.

how to bend opinion. That is not true of many business people. They

:11:59.:12:01.

could talk about the economic risk. The state in campaign was launched

:12:02.:12:07.

by Stuart Rose. And it was a disaster. It was a disastrous launch

:12:08.:12:17.

will stop you going to John McDonnell's economic seminar? I'm

:12:18.:12:24.

washing my hair. He was to get out of the -- he says he would like to

:12:25.:12:28.

get out of the Westminster bubble, he has only

:12:29.:12:28.

get out of the Westminster bubble, he has only got to the West End, but

:12:29.:12:35.

he has got out there. You don't want to come? There are many people

:12:36.:12:40.

worried about Jeremy Corbyn's leadership in the Labour Party, but

:12:41.:12:44.

they are encouraged about the seminars, the economics panel, he

:12:45.:12:48.

has got an incredibly serious group of people, is opening up these

:12:49.:12:55.

seminars and they are encouraged. There was a good piece in the Sunday

:12:56.:12:58.

Times about whether there is a good deal with Google and whether this is

:12:59.:13:01.

such a good deal for the British taxpayer. I can feel I'm going to be

:13:02.:13:08.

on my own. Anyway, it has sold out, there is no room for you.

:13:09.:13:11.

Jo Coburn will be back with the Daily Politics

:13:12.:13:16.

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday

:13:17.:13:20.

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:21.:13:51.

bought on the streets of east Belfast,

:13:52.:13:55.

How can it be credible leadership did not know?

:13:56.:14:04.

The mistakes made in this case would have enormous consequences.

:14:05.:14:09.

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