27/11/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland


27/11/2016

Mark Carruthers with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


Similar Content

Browse content similar to 27/11/2016. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:37.:00:40.

Was Fidel Castro a revolutionary hero or a murderous dictator?

:00:41.:00:44.

After the Cuban leader's death, politicians divide over his legacy.

:00:45.:00:49.

Can the NHS in England find billions of pounds' worth of efficiency

:00:50.:00:53.

The Shadow Health Secretary joins me live.

:00:54.:00:59.

Should we have a second Brexit referendum on the terms

:01:00.:01:01.

of the eventual withdrawal deal that's struck with the EU?

:01:02.:01:06.

Former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown and former Conservative cabinet

:01:07.:01:09.

And in Northern Ireland: go head-to-head.

:01:10.:01:12.

As environmentalists lose their attempt to stop

:01:13.:01:14.

dredging in Lough Neagh, I'll be asking the former

:01:15.:01:16.

Environment Minister they took to court if he made a mistake.

:01:17.:01:19.

And with me, Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:20.:01:34.

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme

:01:35.:01:37.

Political leaders around the world have been reacting to the news

:01:38.:01:44.

of the death of Fidel Castro, the Cuban revolutionary who came

:01:45.:01:46.

to power in 1959 and ushered in a Marxist revolution.

:01:47.:01:50.

Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson described the former leader

:01:51.:01:55.

as an "historic if controversial figure" and said his death marked

:01:56.:01:58.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said Castro was "a champion of social

:01:59.:02:02.

justice" who had "seen off a lot of US presidents"

:02:03.:02:05.

President-elect Donald Trump described the former Cuban leader

:02:06.:02:09.

as a "brutal dictator", adding that he hoped his death

:02:10.:02:12.

would begin a new era "in which the wonderful Cuban people

:02:13.:02:16.

finally live in the freedom they so richly deserve".

:02:17.:02:21.

Meanwhile, the President of the European Commission,

:02:22.:02:22.

Jean-Claude Juncker, said the controversial leader

:02:23.:02:25.

was "a hero for many" but "his legacy will be judged

:02:26.:02:28.

I guess we had worked that out ourselves. What do you make of the

:02:29.:02:43.

reactions so far across the political divide? Predictable. And I

:02:44.:02:48.

noticed that Jeremy Corbyn has come in for criticism for his tribute to

:02:49.:02:55.

Castro. But I think it was the right thing for him to do. We all know he

:02:56.:02:59.

was an admirer. He could have sat there for eight hours in his house,

:03:00.:03:03.

agonising over some bland statement which didn't alienate the many

:03:04.:03:06.

people who want to wade into attacked Castro. It would have been

:03:07.:03:10.

inauthentic and would have just added to the sort of mainstream

:03:11.:03:15.

consensus, and I think he was right to say what he believed in this

:03:16.:03:19.

respect. Elsewhere, it has been wholly predictable that there would

:03:20.:03:24.

be this device, because he divided opinion in such an emotive way.

:03:25.:03:30.

Steve, I take your point about authenticity and it might have

:03:31.:03:33.

looked a bit lame for Jeremy Corbyn to pretend that he had no affection

:03:34.:03:39.

for Fidel Castro at all, but do you think he made a bit of an error

:03:40.:03:44.

dismissing Castro's record, the negative side of it as just a floor?

:03:45.:03:48.

He could have acknowledged in more elaborate terms the huge costs. He

:03:49.:03:55.

wanted to go on about the health and education, which if you actually

:03:56.:03:58.

look up the indices on that, they are good relative to other

:03:59.:04:00.

countries. But they have come at such a huge cost. He was not a

:04:01.:04:08.

champion of criminal justice. If he had done that, it would have been

:04:09.:04:11.

utterly inauthentic. He doesn't believe it. And he would have

:04:12.:04:17.

thought there would be many other people focusing on all the epic

:04:18.:04:21.

failings. So he focused on what he believed. There are times when

:04:22.:04:28.

Corbyn's prominence in the media world now as leader widens the

:04:29.:04:33.

debate in an interesting and important way. I am not aware of any

:04:34.:04:40.

criticisms that Mr Corbyn has ever announced about Mr Castro. There

:04:41.:04:51.

were four words in his statement yesterday which is spin doctor would

:04:52.:04:54.

have forced him to say, for all his flaws. He was on this Cuban

:04:55.:05:04.

solidarity committee, which didn't exist to criticise Castro. It

:05:05.:05:08.

existed to help protect Castro from those, particularly the Americans,

:05:09.:05:12.

who were trying to undermine him. And Corbyn made a big deal yesterday

:05:13.:05:16.

saying he has always called out human rights abuses all over the

:05:17.:05:22.

world. But he said that in general, I call out human rights abuses. He

:05:23.:05:27.

never said, I have called out human rights abuses in Cuba. In the weeks

:05:28.:05:34.

ahead, more will come out about what these human rights abuses were. The

:05:35.:05:41.

lid will come off what was actually happening. Some well authenticated

:05:42.:05:47.

stories are pretty horrendous. I was speaking to a journalist who was

:05:48.:05:53.

working there in the 1990s, who gave me vivid examples of that, and there

:05:54.:06:00.

will be more to come. I still go back to, when a major figure diet

:06:01.:06:05.

and you are a leader who has admired but major figure, you have to say

:06:06.:06:11.

it. That is the trap he has fallen into. He has proved every criticism

:06:12.:06:27.

that he is a duck old ideologue. But he is not the only one. Prime

:06:28.:06:33.

Minister Trudeau was so if uses that I wondered if they were going to

:06:34.:06:40.

open up a book of condolences. I think it reinforces Corbyn's failing

:06:41.:06:44.

brand. It may be authentic, but authentic isn't working for him.

:06:45.:06:48.

When I was driving, I heard Trevor Phillips, who is a Blairite, saying

:06:49.:06:55.

the record was mixed and there were a lot of things to admire as well as

:06:56.:07:00.

all the terrible things. So it is quite nuanced. But if you are a

:07:01.:07:03.

leader issuing a sound bite, there is no space for new ones. You either

:07:04.:07:08.

decide to go for the consensus, which is to set up on the whole, it

:07:09.:07:14.

was a brutal dictatorship. Or you say, here is an extraordinary figure

:07:15.:07:18.

worthy of admiration. In my view, he was right to say what he believed.

:07:19.:07:23.

There was still a dilemma for the British government over who they

:07:24.:07:27.

sent to the funeral. Do they sent nobody, do they say and Boris

:07:28.:07:34.

Johnson as a post-ironic statement? There is now a post-Castro Cuba to

:07:35.:07:42.

deal with. Trump was quite diplomatic about post-Castro Cuba.

:07:43.:07:45.

And Boris Johnson's statement was restrained. The thing about Mr

:07:46.:07:54.

Castro was the longevity, 50 years of keeping Marxism on the island.

:07:55.:07:57.

That was what made it so fascinating.

:07:58.:07:59.

Before the last election, George Osborne promised the NHS

:08:00.:08:02.

in England a real-terms funding boost of ?8 billion per year by 2020

:08:03.:08:06.

on the understanding that NHS bosses would also find ?22 billion worth

:08:07.:08:09.

Since last autumn, NHS managers have been drawing up what they're calling

:08:10.:08:16.

"Sustainability and Transformation Plans" to make these savings,

:08:17.:08:19.

but some of the proposals are already running into local

:08:20.:08:25.

opposition, while Labour say they amount to huge cuts to the NHS.

:08:26.:08:28.

Help is on the way for an elderly person in need in Hertfordshire.

:08:29.:08:34.

But east of England ambulance call operators

:08:35.:08:37.

they're sending an early intervention vehicle

:08:38.:08:42.

with a council-employed occupational therapist on board.

:08:43.:08:49.

It's being piloted here for over 65s with

:08:50.:08:51.

When they arrive, a paramedic judges if the patient can be

:08:52.:08:57.

treated immediately at home without a trip to hospital.

:08:58.:09:00.

Around 80% of patients have been treated this way,

:09:01.:09:02.

taking the strain off urgently-needed hospital beds,

:09:03.:09:05.

So the early intervention team has assessed the patient and decided

:09:06.:09:11.

The key to successful integration for Hertfordshire being able

:09:12.:09:24.

to collaboratively look at how we use our resources,

:09:25.:09:26.

to have pooled budgets, to allow us to understand

:09:27.:09:29.

where spend is, and to let us make conscientious decisions about how

:09:30.:09:32.

best to use that money, to come up with ideas to problems

:09:33.:09:37.

that sit between our organisations, to look at things collaboratively.

:09:38.:09:39.

This Hertfordshire hospital is also a good example of how

:09:40.:09:41.

You won't find an A unit or overnight beds here any more.

:09:42.:09:49.

The closest ones are 20 minutes down the road.

:09:50.:09:55.

What's left is nurse-led care in an NHS-built hospital.

:09:56.:09:56.

Despite a politically toxic change, this reconfiguration went

:09:57.:10:00.

through after broad public and political consultation

:10:01.:10:02.

with hospital clinicians and GPs on board.

:10:03.:10:06.

It's a notable achievement that's surely of interest to 60% of NHS

:10:07.:10:10.

trusts in England that reported a deficit at the end of September.

:10:11.:10:16.

It's not just here that the NHS needs to save money and provide

:10:17.:10:19.

The Government is going to pour in an extra ?8 billion into the NHS

:10:20.:10:26.

in England, but it has demanded ?22 billion

:10:27.:10:32.

worth of efficiencies across the country.

:10:33.:10:34.

In order to deliver that, the NHS has created 44 health

:10:35.:10:37.

and care partnerships, and each one will provide

:10:38.:10:39.

a sustainability and transformation plan, or STP, to integrate care,

:10:40.:10:43.

provide better services and save money.

:10:44.:10:47.

So far, 33 of these 44 regional plans, drawn up by senior people

:10:48.:10:52.

in the health service and local government,

:10:53.:10:54.

The NHS has been through five years of severely constrained spending

:10:55.:11:01.

growth, and there are another 4-5 years on the way at least.

:11:02.:11:04.

STPs themselves are an attempt to deal in a planned way

:11:05.:11:11.

But with plans to close some A units and reduce the number

:11:12.:11:17.

of hospital beds, there's likely to be a tough political battle

:11:18.:11:22.

ahead, with many MPs already up in arms about proposed

:11:23.:11:26.

This Tory backbencher is concerned about the local plans for his

:11:27.:11:29.

I wouldn't call it an efficiency if you are proposing to close

:11:30.:11:37.

all of the beds which are currently provided for those coming out

:11:38.:11:41.

of the acute sector who are elderly and looking

:11:42.:11:43.

That's not a cut, it's not an efficiency saving,

:11:44.:11:47.

All 44 STPs should be published in a month's time,

:11:48.:11:55.

But even before that, they dominated this week's PMQs.

:11:56.:12:01.

The Government's sustainability and transformation plans

:12:02.:12:03.

for the National Health Service hide ?22 billion of cuts.

:12:04.:12:09.

The National Health Service is indeed looking for savings

:12:10.:12:12.

within the NHS, which will be reinvested in the NHS.

:12:13.:12:16.

There will be no escape from angry MPs for the Health Secretary either.

:12:17.:12:20.

Well, I have spoken to the Secretary of State just this week

:12:21.:12:23.

about the importance of community hospitals in general,

:12:24.:12:28.

These are proposals out to consultation.

:12:29.:12:34.

What could happen if these plans get blocked?

:12:35.:12:39.

If STPs cannot be made to work, the planned changes don't come

:12:40.:12:42.

to pass, then the NHS will see over time a sort of unplanned

:12:43.:12:47.

deterioration and services becoming unstable and service

:12:48.:12:49.

The NHS barely featured in this week's Autumn Statement

:12:50.:12:56.

but the Prime Minister insisted beforehand that STPs

:12:57.:13:03.

are in the interests of local people.

:13:04.:13:04.

Her Government's support will now be critical for NHS England

:13:05.:13:07.

to push through these controversial regional plans,

:13:08.:13:08.

which will soon face public scrutiny.

:13:09.:13:15.

We did ask the Department of Health for an interview,

:13:16.:13:20.

I've been joined by the Shadow Health Secretary,

:13:21.:13:23.

Do you accept that the NHS is capable of making ?22 billion of

:13:24.:13:40.

efficiency savings? Well, we are very sceptical, as are number of

:13:41.:13:44.

independent organisations about the ability of the NHS to find 22

:13:45.:13:49.

billion of efficiencies without that affecting front line care. When you

:13:50.:13:53.

drill down into the 22 billion, based on the information we have

:13:54.:13:56.

been given, and there hasn't been much information, we can see that

:13:57.:14:00.

some of it will come from cutting the budget which go to community

:14:01.:14:04.

pharmacies, which could lead, according to ministers, to 3000

:14:05.:14:07.

pharmacies closing, which we believe will increase demands on A and

:14:08.:14:12.

GPs, and also that a lot of these changes which are being proposed,

:14:13.:14:17.

which was the focus of the package, we think will mean service cuts at a

:14:18.:14:24.

local level. Do they? The chief executive of NHS England says these

:14:25.:14:30.

efficiency plans are "Incredibly important". He used to work from

:14:31.:14:33.

Labour. The independent King's Fund calls them "The best hope to improve

:14:34.:14:41.

health and care services. There is no plan B". On the sustainable

:14:42.:14:47.

transformation plans, which will be across England to link up physical

:14:48.:14:51.

health, mental health and social care, for those services to

:14:52.:14:55.

collaborate more closely together and move beyond the fragmented

:14:56.:14:57.

system we have at the moment is important. It seems that the ground

:14:58.:15:04.

has shifted. It has moved into filling financial gaps. As we know,

:15:05.:15:08.

the NHS is going through the biggest financial squeeze in its history. By

:15:09.:15:13.

2018, per head spending on the NHS will be falling. If you want to

:15:14.:15:17.

redesign services for the long term in a local area, you need to put the

:15:18.:15:23.

money in. So of course, getting these services working better

:15:24.:15:25.

together and having a greater strategic oversight, which we would

:15:26.:15:29.

have had if we had not got rid of strategic health authority is in the

:15:30.:15:34.

last Parliament. But this is not an attempt to save 22 billion, this is

:15:35.:15:39.

an attempt to spend 22 billion more successfully, don't you accept that?

:15:40.:15:46.

Simon Stevens said we need 8 billion, and we need to find 22

:15:47.:15:53.

billion of savings. You have to spend 22 billion more efficiently.

:15:54.:15:58.

But the Government have not given that 8 billion to the NHS which they

:15:59.:16:03.

said they would. They said they would do it by 2020. But they have

:16:04.:16:09.

changed the definitions of spending so NHS England will get 8 billion by

:16:10.:16:14.

2020, but they have cut the public health budgets by about 4 million by

:16:15.:16:20.

20 20. The budget that going to initiatives to tackle sexually

:16:21.:16:24.

transmitted diseases, to tackle smoking have been cut back but the

:16:25.:16:29.

commissioning of things like school nurses and health visitors have been

:16:30.:16:33.

cut back as well. Simon Stevens said he can only deliver that five-year

:16:34.:16:38.

project if there is a radical upgrade in public health, which the

:16:39.:16:41.

Government have failed on, and if we deal with social care, and this week

:16:42.:16:47.

there was an... I understand that, but if you don't think the

:16:48.:16:53.

efficiency drive can free up 22 billion to take us to 30 billion by

:16:54.:16:59.

2020, where would you get the money from? I have been in this post now

:17:00.:17:03.

for five or six weeks and I want to have a big consultation with

:17:04.:17:07.

everybody who works in the health sector, as well as patients, carers

:17:08.:17:12.

and families. Though you don't know? I think it would be surprised if I

:17:13.:17:19.

had an arbitrary figure this soon into the job. Your party said they

:17:20.:17:26.

expected election of spring by this year, you need to have some idea by

:17:27.:17:30.

now, you inherited a portfolio from Diane Abbott, did she have no idea?

:17:31.:17:35.

To govern is to make choices and we would make different choices. The

:17:36.:17:40.

budget last year scored billions of giveaways in things like

:17:41.:17:47.

co-operating -- corporation tax. What I do want to do... Is work on a

:17:48.:17:58.

plan and the general election, whenever it comes, next year or in

:17:59.:18:04.

2020 or in between, to have costed plan for the NHS. But your party is

:18:05.:18:08.

committed to balancing the books on current spending, that is currently

:18:09.:18:14.

John McDonnell, the Shadow Chancellor's position. What we are

:18:15.:18:19.

talking about, this extra 30 billion, that is essentially current

:18:20.:18:24.

spending so if it doesn't come from efficiency savings, where does the

:18:25.:18:27.

money come from? Some of it is also capital. Mainly current spending. If

:18:28.:18:35.

you look at the details of the OBR, they have switched a million from

:18:36.:18:46.

the capital into revenue. Why -- how do you balance spending?

:18:47.:18:50.

That is why we need to have a debate. Every time we ask for

:18:51.:18:58.

Labour's policy, we are always told me a debate. Surely it is time to

:18:59.:19:03.

give some idea of what you stand for? There's huge doubts about the

:19:04.:19:06.

Government 's policy on this. You are the opposition, how would you do

:19:07.:19:11.

it? I want to work with John McDonnell to find a package to give

:19:12.:19:15.

the NHS the money it needs, but of course our Shadow Chancellor, like

:19:16.:19:19.

any Shadow Chancellor at this stage in the cycle, will want to see what

:19:20.:19:23.

the books look like a head of an election before making commitments.

:19:24.:19:29.

I am clear that the Labour Party has to go into the next general election

:19:30.:19:32.

with a clear policy to give the NHS the funding it needs because it has

:19:33.:19:35.

been going through the largest financial squeeze in its history.

:19:36.:19:40.

You say Labour will always give the NHS the money it needs, that is not

:19:41.:19:45.

a policy, it is a blank cheque. It is an indication of our commitment

:19:46.:19:50.

to the NHS. Under this Conservative government, the NHS has been getting

:19:51.:19:54.

a 1% increase. Throughout its history it has usually have about

:19:55.:19:59.

4%. Under the last Labour government it was getting 4%, before that

:20:00.:20:04.

substantially more. We think the NHS should get more but I don't have

:20:05.:20:07.

access to the NHS books in front of me. The public thinks there needs to

:20:08.:20:16.

be more money spent on health but they also think that should go cap

:20:17.:20:21.

in hand with the money being more efficiently spent, which is what

:20:22.:20:27.

this efficiency drive is designed to release 22 billion. Do you have an

:20:28.:20:32.

efficiency drive if it is not the Government's one? Of course we

:20:33.:20:37.

agree. We agree the NHS should be more efficient, we want to see

:20:38.:20:42.

productivity increased. Do know how to do that? One way is through

:20:43.:20:49.

investments, maintenance, but there is a 5 million maintenance backlog.

:20:50.:20:55.

One of the most high risk backlogs is something like 730 million. They

:20:56.:21:02.

are going to switch the capital spend into revenue spend. I believe

:21:03.:21:06.

that when you invest in maintenance and capital in the NHS, that

:21:07.:21:10.

contribute to increasing its productivity. You are now talking

:21:11.:21:14.

about 5 billion the maintenance, the chief executive says it needs 30

:21:15.:21:20.

billion more by 2020 as a minimum so that 35 billion. You want to spend

:21:21.:21:27.

more on social care, another for 5 billion on that so we have proper

:21:28.:21:31.

care in the community. By that calculation I'm up to about 40

:21:32.:21:34.

billion, which is fine, except where do you get the and balance the

:21:35.:21:39.

account at the same time? We will have to come up with a plan for that

:21:40.:21:44.

and that's why I will work with our Shadow Treasury team to come up with

:21:45.:21:47.

that plan when they head into the general election. At the moment we

:21:48.:21:52.

are saying to the NHS, sorry, we are not going to give you the

:21:53.:21:55.

investment, which is why we are seeing patient care deteriorating.

:21:56.:22:03.

The staff are doing incredible things but 180,000 are waiting in

:22:04.:22:09.

A beyond four hours, record levels of people delayed in beds in

:22:10.:22:12.

hospitals because there are not the beds in the community to go to save

:22:13.:22:16.

the NHS needs the investment. We know that and we know the

:22:17.:22:20.

Government's response to that and many think it is inadequate. What

:22:21.:22:24.

I'm trying to get from you is what your response would be and what your

:22:25.:22:27.

reaction will be to these efficiency plans. Your colleague Heidi

:22:28.:22:32.

Alexander, she had your job earlier this year, she warned of the danger

:22:33.:22:39.

of knee jerk blanket opposition to local efficiency plans. Do you agree

:22:40.:22:46.

with that? Yes. So every time a hospital is going to close as a

:22:47.:22:52.

result of this, and some will, it is Labour default position not just

:22:53.:22:56.

going to be we are against it? That is why we are going to judge each of

:22:57.:23:00.

these sustainability plans by a number of yardsticks. We want to see

:23:01.:23:05.

if they have the support of local clinicians, we want to see if they

:23:06.:23:08.

have the support of local authorities because they now have a

:23:09.:23:11.

role in the delivery of health care. We want to see if they make the

:23:12.:23:15.

right decisions for the long-term trends in population for local area.

:23:16.:23:19.

We want to see if they integrate social care and health. If they

:23:20.:23:23.

don't and therefore you will not bank that as an efficiency saving,

:23:24.:23:29.

you will say no, that's not the way to go, you are left then with

:23:30.:23:33.

finding the alternative funding to keep the NHS going. If you are

:23:34.:23:39.

cutting beds, for example the proposal is to cut something like

:23:40.:23:45.

5000 beds in Derbyshire and if there is the space in the community sector

:23:46.:23:49.

in Derbyshire, that will cause big problems for the NHS in the long

:23:50.:23:53.

term so it is a false economy. An example like that, we would be very

:23:54.:23:58.

sceptical the plans could work. Would it not be honest, given the

:23:59.:24:02.

sums of money involved and your doubts about the efficiency plan,

:24:03.:24:07.

which are shared by many people, to just say, look, among the wealthy

:24:08.:24:13.

nations, we spend a lower proportion of our GDP on health than most of

:24:14.:24:18.

the other countries, European countries included, we need to put

:24:19.:24:23.

up tax if we want a proper NHS. Wouldn't that be honest? I'm not the

:24:24.:24:29.

Shadow Chancellor, I don't make taxation policy. You are tempting me

:24:30.:24:35.

down a particular road by you or I smile. John McDonnell will come up

:24:36.:24:39.

with our taxation policy. We have had an ambition to meet the European

:24:40.:24:43.

average, the way these things are measured have changed since then,

:24:44.:24:46.

but we did have that ambition and for a few years we met it. We need

:24:47.:24:53.

substantial investment in the NHS. Everyone accepts it was

:24:54.:24:55.

extraordinary that there wasn't an extra penny for the NHS in the

:24:56.:25:00.

Autumn Statement this week. And as we go into the general election,

:25:01.:25:05.

whenever it is, we will have a plan for the NHS. Come back and speak to

:25:06.:25:09.

us when you know what you are going to do. Thank you.

:25:10.:25:11.

Theresa May has promised to trigger formal Brexit negotiations

:25:12.:25:14.

before the end of March, but the Prime Minister must wait

:25:15.:25:16.

for the Supreme Court to decide whether parliament must vote

:25:17.:25:19.

If that is the Supreme Court's conclusion, the Liberal Democrats

:25:20.:25:22.

and others in parliament have said they'll demand a second EU

:25:23.:25:25.

referendum on the terms of the eventual Brexit deal before

:25:26.:25:27.

And last week, two former Prime Ministers suggested

:25:28.:25:30.

that the referendum result could be reversed.

:25:31.:25:33.

In an interview with the New Statesman on Thursday,

:25:34.:25:37.

Tony Blair said, "It can be stopped if the British people decide that,

:25:38.:25:40.

having seen what it means, the pain-gain cost-benefit analysis

:25:41.:25:42.

John Major also weighed in, telling a meeting

:25:43.:25:49.

of the National Liberal Club that the terms of Brexit

:25:50.:25:51.

were being dictated by the "tyranny of the majority".

:25:52.:25:53.

He also said there is a "perfectly credible case"

:25:54.:25:55.

That prompted the former Conservative leader

:25:56.:25:59.

Iain Duncan Smith to criticise John Major.

:26:00.:26:03.

He told the BBC, "The idea we delay everything simply

:26:04.:26:05.

because they disagree with the original result does

:26:06.:26:07.

seem to me an absolute dismissal of democracy."

:26:08.:26:13.

So, is there a realistic chance of a second referendum on the terms

:26:14.:26:16.

of whatever Brexit deal Theresa May manages to secure?

:26:17.:26:20.

Lib Dem party leader Tim Farron has said, "We want to respect

:26:21.:26:24.

the will of the people and that means they must have their say

:26:25.:26:27.

in a referendum on the terms of the deal."

:26:28.:26:30.

But the Lib Dems have just eight MPs - they'll need Labour support

:26:31.:26:34.

One ally is former Labour leadership candidate Owen Smith.

:26:35.:26:39.

He backs the idea of a second referendum.

:26:40.:26:43.

But yesterday the party's deputy leader, Tom Watson, said that,

:26:44.:26:46.

"Unlike the Lib Dem Brexit Deniers, we believe in respecting

:26:47.:26:48.

To discuss whether or not there should be a second referendum

:26:49.:26:56.

on the terms of the Brexit deal, I've been joined by two

:26:57.:26:59.

In Somerset is the former Lib Dem leader Paddy Ashdown,

:27:00.:27:03.

and in Shropshire is the former Conservative cabinet minister

:27:04.:27:05.

Paddy Ashdown, let me come to you first. When the British people have

:27:06.:27:17.

spoken, you do what they command, either you believe in democracy or

:27:18.:27:22.

you don't. When democracy speaks, we obey. Your words on the night of the

:27:23.:27:29.

referendum, what's changed? Nothing has changed, Andrew, that's what I

:27:30.:27:32.

said and what I still believe in. The British people have spoken, we

:27:33.:27:37.

will not block Parliament debating the Brexit decision, Article 50, but

:27:38.:27:43.

we will introduce an amendment to say that we need to consult the

:27:44.:27:50.

British people, not about if we go out but what destination we would

:27:51.:27:57.

then achieve. There is a vast difference in ordinary people's

:27:58.:28:01.

lives between the so-called hard Brexit and soft Brexit. Soft Brexit,

:28:02.:28:06.

you remain in the single market, you have to accept and agree on

:28:07.:28:10.

immigration. Hard Brexit you are out of the single market, we have many

:28:11.:28:18.

fewer jobs... Why didn't you say before the referendum there would be

:28:19.:28:24.

a second referendum on the terms? Forgive me, I said it on many

:28:25.:28:28.

occasions, you may not have covered it, Andrew, but that's a different

:28:29.:28:33.

thing. In every speech I gave I said this, and this has proved to be

:28:34.:28:38.

true, since those who recommended Brexit refused to tell us the

:28:39.:28:41.

destination they were recommending, they refuse to give any detail about

:28:42.:28:46.

the destination, if we did vote to go out, it would probably be

:28:47.:28:50.

appropriate to decide which destination, hard Brexit or soft

:28:51.:28:55.

Brexit we go to. They deliberately obscure that because it made it more

:28:56.:28:59.

difficult to argue the case. It wasn't part of the official campaign

:29:00.:29:05.

but let me come to Owen Paterson. What's wrong with a referendum on

:29:06.:29:09.

the terms of the deal? We voted to leave but we don't really know on

:29:10.:29:13.

what conditions we leave so what's wrong with negotiating the deal and

:29:14.:29:16.

putting that deal to the British people? This would be a ridiculous

:29:17.:29:25.

idea, it would be a complete gift to the EU negotiators to go for an

:29:26.:29:29.

impossibly difficult deal because they want to do everything to make

:29:30.:29:33.

sure that Brexit does not go through. This nonsense idea of hard

:29:34.:29:38.

Brexit and soft Brexit, it was never discussed during the referendum

:29:39.:29:42.

campaign. We made it clear we wanted to take back control, that means

:29:43.:29:48.

making our own laws, raising and spending the money agreed by elected

:29:49.:29:52.

politicians, getting control of our own borders back, and getting

:29:53.:29:56.

control of our ability to do trade deals around the world. That was

:29:57.:29:59.

clear at all stages of the referendum. We got 17.4 million

:30:00.:30:05.

votes, the biggest vote in history for any issue, that 52%, 10% more

:30:06.:30:11.

than John Major got and he was happy with his record number of 14

:30:12.:30:15.

million, more than Tony Blair got, which was 43%, so we have a very

:30:16.:30:20.

clear mandate. Time and again people come up to me and say when are we

:30:21.:30:24.

going to get on with this. The big problem is uncertainty. We want to

:30:25.:30:28.

trigger Article 50, have the negotiation and get to a better

:30:29.:30:30.

place. OK, I need to get a debate going.

:30:31.:30:40.

Paddy Ashdown, the EU doesn't want us to leave. If they knew there was

:30:41.:30:44.

going to be a second referendum, surely there was going to be a

:30:45.:30:46.

second referendum, surely their incentive would be to give us the

:30:47.:30:49.

worst possible deal would vote against it would put us in a

:30:50.:30:54.

ridiculous negotiating position. On the contrary, the government could

:30:55.:30:58.

go and negotiate with the European Union and anyway, the opinion of the

:30:59.:31:01.

European Union is less important than the opinion of the British

:31:02.:31:05.

people. It seems to me that Owen Paterson made the case for me

:31:06.:31:09.

precisely. They refuse to discuss what kind of destination. Britain

:31:10.:31:16.

voted for departure, but not a destination. Because Owen Paterson

:31:17.:31:18.

and his colleagues refused to discuss what their model was. So the

:31:19.:31:24.

range of options here and the impact on the people of Britain is huge.

:31:25.:31:27.

There is nothing to stop the government going to negotiate,

:31:28.:31:30.

getting the best deal it can and go into the British people and saying,

:31:31.:31:36.

this is the deal, guys, do you agree? Owen Paterson? It is simple.

:31:37.:31:43.

The British people voted to leave. We voted to take back control of our

:31:44.:31:50.

laws, our money, our borders. But most people don't know the shape of

:31:51.:31:53.

what the deal would be. So why not have a vote on it? Because it would

:31:54.:32:00.

be a gift to the EU negotiators to drive the worst possible deal in the

:32:01.:32:06.

hope that it might be chucked out with a second referendum. The

:32:07.:32:09.

biggest danger is the uncertainty. We have the biggest vote in British

:32:10.:32:16.

history. You have said all that. It was your side that originally

:32:17.:32:20.

proposed a second referendum. The director of Leave said, there is a

:32:21.:32:25.

strong democratic case for a referendum on what the deal looks

:32:26.:32:31.

like. Your side. Come on, you are digging up a blog from June of 2015.

:32:32.:32:42.

He said he had not come to a conclusion. He said it is a distinct

:32:43.:32:50.

possibility. No senior members of the campaign said we would have a

:32:51.:32:55.

second referendum. It is worth chucking Paddy the quote he gave on

:32:56.:32:59.

ITV news, whether it is a majority of 1% or 20%, when the British

:33:00.:33:02.

people have spoken, you do what they command. People come up to me and

:33:03.:33:09.

keep asking, when are you going to get on with it? What do you say to

:33:10.:33:19.

that, Paddy Ashdown? Owen Paterson has obviously not been paying

:33:20.:33:22.

attention. You ask me that question at the start. Owen and his kind have

:33:23.:33:32.

to stick to the same argument. During the referendum, when we said

:33:33.:33:36.

that the Europeans have it in their interest to picket tough for us,

:33:37.:33:42.

they would suffer as well. And that has proved to be right. The European

:33:43.:33:46.

Union does not wish to hand as a bad deal, because they may suffer in the

:33:47.:33:51.

process. We need the best deal for both sides. I can't understand why

:33:52.:34:03.

Owen is now reversing that argument. Here is the question I am going to

:34:04.:34:07.

ask you. If we have a second referendum on the deal and we vote

:34:08.:34:16.

by a very small amount, by a sliver, to stay in, can we then make it

:34:17.:34:27.

best-of-3? No, Andrew! Vince Cable says he thinks if you won, he would

:34:28.:34:32.

have to have a decider. You will have to put that income tax, because

:34:33.:34:36.

I don't remember when he said that. -- you have to put that in context.

:34:37.:34:44.

Independent, 19th of September. That is a decision on the outcome. The

:34:45.:34:51.

central point is that the British people voted for departure, not a

:34:52.:34:55.

destination. In response to the claim that this is undemocratic, if

:34:56.:35:00.

it is democratic to have one referendum, how can it be

:35:01.:35:06.

undemocratic to have two? Owen Paterson, the British government, on

:35:07.:35:09.

the brink of triggering article 50, cannot tell us if we will remain

:35:10.:35:13.

members of the single market, if we will remain members of the customs

:35:14.:35:19.

union. From that flows our ability to make trade deals, our attitude

:35:20.:35:24.

towards freedom of movement and the rest of it. Given that the

:35:25.:35:26.

government can't tell us, it is clear that the British people have

:35:27.:35:30.

no idea what the eventual shape will be. That is surely the fundamental

:35:31.:35:36.

case for a second referendum. Emphatically not. They have given a

:35:37.:35:42.

clear vote. That vote was to take back control. What the establishment

:35:43.:35:50.

figures like Paddy should recognise is the shattering damage it would do

:35:51.:35:53.

to the integrity of the whole political process if this was not

:35:54.:36:00.

delivered. People come up to me, as I have said for the third time now,

:36:01.:36:03.

wanting to know when we will get article 50 triggered. Both people

:36:04.:36:09.

who have voted to Remain and to Leave. If we do not deliver this, it

:36:10.:36:13.

will be disastrous for the reputation and integrity of the

:36:14.:36:17.

whole political establishment. Let me put that you Paddy Ashdown. It is

:36:18.:36:26.

very Brussels elite - were ask your question but if we don't like the

:36:27.:36:29.

answer, we will keep asking the question. Did it with the Irish and

:36:30.:36:38.

French. It is... It would really anger the British people, would it

:36:39.:36:44.

not? That is an interesting question, Andrew. I don't think it

:36:45.:36:49.

would. All the evidence I see in public meetings I attended, and I

:36:50.:36:52.

think it is beginning to show in the opinion polls, although there hasn't

:36:53.:36:55.

been a proper one on this yet, I suspect there is a majority in

:36:56.:36:59.

Britain who would wish to see a second referendum on the outcome.

:37:00.:37:02.

They take the same view as I do. What began with an open democratic

:37:03.:37:07.

process cannot end with a government stitch up. Contrary to what Owen

:37:08.:37:11.

suggests, there is public support for this. And far from damaging the

:37:12.:37:18.

government and the political class, it showed that we are prepared to

:37:19.:37:22.

listen. We shall see. Paddy Ashdown, have you eaten your hat yet? Andrew,

:37:23.:37:32.

as you well know, I have eaten five hats. You cannot have a second

:37:33.:37:37.

referendum until you eat your hat on my programme. We will leave it

:37:38.:37:40.

there. Paddy Ashdown and Owen Paterson, thank you much. I have

:37:41.:37:48.

eaten a hat on your programme. I don't remember!

:37:49.:37:51.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:52.:37:53.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:54.:38:03.

Hello and welcome to Sunday Politics in Northern Ireland.

:38:04.:38:08.

As environmentalists lose a case against sand

:38:09.:38:11.

dredging in Lough Neagh, I'll be asking the former

:38:12.:38:14.

Minister Mark H Durkan, and the Green MLA Steven Agnew

:38:15.:38:16.

Jim Allister vows to go on as TUV leader despite falling numbers

:38:17.:38:22.

And with me throughout with their thoughts,

:38:23.:38:25.

The environmental group Friends of the Earth has failed in its legal

:38:26.:38:37.

attempt to end sand dredging in Lough Neagh, after taking

:38:38.:38:40.

The group had argued the Department of the Environment should have

:38:41.:38:46.

stopped the dredging, rather than allow it to continue

:38:47.:38:49.

while the companies involved applied for planning permission.

:38:50.:38:52.

However, that was rejected in court on Friday.

:38:53.:38:56.

Joining me now are the Green MLA Steven Agnew, and from our Foyle

:38:57.:38:59.

studio, the former Environment Minister Mark H Durkan.

:39:00.:39:05.

Mark, you must be relieved at this ruling?

:39:06.:39:08.

I very much welcome the ruling, not only did they make the right

:39:09.:39:21.

decision but they made it correctly as a -- I made it correctly as well.

:39:22.:39:27.

But the judges face -- realised the difficulties facing me, and the

:39:28.:39:30.

pragmatic steps that I did take to have this activity on the lough

:39:31.:39:34.

regular realised. Why did you ignore the advice

:39:35.:39:37.

of your officials who urged I don't think it's fair to say I

:39:38.:39:46.

ignored them, I considered the advice, as I did on any decision I

:39:47.:39:53.

had to make, and I balanced it against other factors. In this

:39:54.:39:58.

instance I balanced the potential or possible environmental damage that

:39:59.:40:03.

was being caused by the sand dredging against the definite

:40:04.:40:07.

economic consequences of issuing a stock that is there and then, and

:40:08.:40:11.

those consequences would have been devastating. We are talking about a

:40:12.:40:15.

few hundred people losing their jobs overnight through no fault of their

:40:16.:40:19.

own, they are doing something that may their fathers and grandfathers

:40:20.:40:23.

did, activity that's been going on in the region of 90 years, and

:40:24.:40:29.

nobody batted an eye about it until a couple of years ago. But

:40:30.:40:32.

environmental damage would have been very serious. Are you prepared to

:40:33.:40:40.

take that risk. The problem was the lack of information around the

:40:41.:40:49.

lough. I'm the only minister who had taken any action to address this

:40:50.:40:53.

issue, as soon as I became aware of it. I issued an enforcement notice,

:40:54.:40:59.

which Stephen Agnew welcomed me doing at the time. I came under

:41:00.:41:04.

serious criticism from industry at the time I did that. So it was a

:41:05.:41:08.

difficult situation. I appreciate the concerns that have been raised

:41:09.:41:15.

by Friends of the Earth and others about possible environmental damage,

:41:16.:41:20.

however, a desktop study commissioned by myself and others

:41:21.:41:24.

found that the environmental damage is more than likely negligible. You

:41:25.:41:37.

welcomed what he did at the time. The court has vindicated him by

:41:38.:41:41.

saying he handled the situation in an acceptable way. His decision was

:41:42.:41:46.

within his remit. What I would say is that the court said he was

:41:47.:41:50.

entitled to make the decision, they didn't say it was the right

:41:51.:41:55.

decision. As you pointed out, he was twice advised by his department to

:41:56.:41:59.

call for a stop notice. He chose not to do so. He said he was receiving

:42:00.:42:09.

other advice, he had to weigh it up. It is a special protection area,

:42:10.:42:13.

development should not be allowed on the site is a can be shown there is

:42:14.:42:17.

no risk. What about the potential economic consequences? I think there

:42:18.:42:26.

should be a level playing field and every developer should have to

:42:27.:42:29.

follow the rules. This sand dredging has been going on for decades. There

:42:30.:42:37.

was an opportunity to draw the line in the sand and say no more, and I

:42:38.:42:41.

think he should have done that until we get the evidence this is so.

:42:42.:42:52.

Friends of the Earth said the effect of dredging was overestimated. Until

:42:53.:42:58.

we can gather the evidence as to why -- the sand dredgers have not and

:42:59.:43:04.

cannot prove that they are not at least in part responsible, and I

:43:05.:43:07.

think we need to get the evidence. It is very difficult to collect that

:43:08.:43:13.

evidence when ?1.5 million -- 1.5 million tonnes of sand are still

:43:14.:43:17.

being extracted every year without authorisation. We've been promised

:43:18.:43:21.

for years there would be a planning application. We are yet to see

:43:22.:43:27.

planning approval. But we are now seeing an application, had it not

:43:28.:43:31.

been for my action we wouldn't have seen that. We are working through

:43:32.:43:36.

that. The information that has been missing is being assimilated as we

:43:37.:43:39.

speak. I think that is very important. But good evidence is hard

:43:40.:43:48.

to gather when the sand dredging is still continuing. I do welcome your

:43:49.:43:52.

action, as you know, when you are minister I raised at a number of

:43:53.:43:57.

times, and in that sense we worked together. But I do think you need to

:43:58.:44:01.

go that stepfather and stop the dredging so that we can get the

:44:02.:44:06.

evidence as to whether or not this is causing the environmental damage.

:44:07.:44:11.

-- go that stepfather. I know you wouldn't have had reason to be

:44:12.:44:18.

overly critical of me, I took it is maybe a slight rebuke that I had

:44:19.:44:22.

maybe ignored the advice of my officials on two occasions on this

:44:23.:44:26.

matter, but you will concede it was OK for me to ignore advice from the

:44:27.:44:32.

same officials when they came to locking. That is a different issue.

:44:33.:44:36.

-- locking. He was environment minister, and

:44:37.:44:54.

he's just said he made a decision that was good for the economy. It is

:44:55.:45:04.

about balancing all of those competing interests. That is the job

:45:05.:45:09.

of the environment minister. I find it bizarre that -- we have decided

:45:10.:45:18.

as a society that environmental protection is something that is

:45:19.:45:21.

important, and I don't think we can just cherry pick as and when we

:45:22.:45:25.

reinforce our regulations. Are you not concerned about the removal of

:45:26.:45:31.

1.5 million tonnes of sand each year from the bottom of Lough Neagh? We

:45:32.:45:37.

do not know what the environmental consequences of that are. We've

:45:38.:45:42.

already referred to wintering birds, we need to find out what impact that

:45:43.:45:49.

is happening -- having. I am proud of the role I have played in

:45:50.:45:54.

protecting the environment. Of course I am concerned there might be

:45:55.:45:57.

environmental damage being done here, that is why these studies are

:45:58.:46:02.

now being tried out, and a planning application was sought and has

:46:03.:46:07.

subsequently been made. That is why the implement -- information has now

:46:08.:46:11.

been acquired, and it has been missing. For decades and decades and

:46:12.:46:18.

decades. There are not many factors at play in the bird population. I

:46:19.:46:21.

have discussed it with Friends of the Earth, in private. I've had an

:46:22.:46:28.

acknowledgement from them that if the sand dredging is a factor in

:46:29.:46:34.

this, it is a small one. You are tapping the microphone with your

:46:35.:46:37.

hand, making a little bit of a noise which may be difficult for our

:46:38.:46:42.

viewers to hear what you are saying. What is your advice to your

:46:43.:46:45.

successor who is now responsible for this, the infrastructure Minister?

:46:46.:46:49.

What you think he needs to do next to chart the best way for the? I

:46:50.:46:55.

think it is important that Chris works with the industry to make sure

:46:56.:47:01.

that their application comes forward in a timely manner, but it is

:47:02.:47:06.

important that he also works with Friends of the Earth and

:47:07.:47:08.

environmental groups who are opposed to this practice in general. It is

:47:09.:47:13.

like you rightly outlined, Mark, about striking a balance. It is not

:47:14.:47:18.

always easy to do so. However, when I came to the role of environment

:47:19.:47:22.

minister said it was my vision to create a better environment and a

:47:23.:47:26.

stronger economy. For too long those things have been pitched against

:47:27.:47:30.

each other and we have had the mindset that what is good for the

:47:31.:47:33.

economy has been bad for the environment. That doesn't have to be

:47:34.:47:38.

the case. I think it is possible to have a thriving economy and to make

:47:39.:47:43.

sure -- ensure robust environment up to. I will be trying to ensure as a

:47:44.:47:49.

member of the opposition that the new minister does that as well. What

:47:50.:47:56.

do you think Chris Hazard should do next? We had the report, lack of

:47:57.:48:06.

enforcement has said we have up to ?250 million Bill for cleaning up

:48:07.:48:11.

sites that have been used for unauthorised waste. If we do not

:48:12.:48:15.

enforce our environmental laws it will damage the economy as well as

:48:16.:48:16.

our environment. The TUV leader Jim Allister has

:48:17.:48:20.

insisted he has no plans to retire, as he addressed his eighth

:48:21.:48:24.

conference. He told delegates in Cookstown

:48:25.:48:26.

he is already looking forward to the council elections,

:48:27.:48:28.

when he hopes the party But the attendance at the gathering

:48:29.:48:30.

was well down on last year, with some blaming

:48:31.:48:34.

the party poor performance Our political correspondent

:48:35.:48:36.

Enda McClafferty was there. His political opponents may believe

:48:37.:48:47.

he is heading for retirement, but there was no hint yesterday that Jim

:48:48.:48:50.

Allister is about to exit the political stage. So it seems it is

:48:51.:49:03.

not yet time for Jexit, but for Brexit. As he addressed his eighth

:49:04.:49:08.

party conference, he already had his sights on the next council election,

:49:09.:49:13.

and he had a defiant message for those at Stormont rushing him out of

:49:14.:49:18.

the door. I will continue to shine the spotlight of exposure into the

:49:19.:49:22.

dark corners of Stormont. I will continue to be the thorn in the

:49:23.:49:31.

flesh of Sinn Fein, DUP misrule. And I will rub salt in as well when I

:49:32.:49:36.

get the and I hope the salt may never lose its savour. The attack

:49:37.:49:41.

the first and Deputy First Ministers for using a spin doctor to try and

:49:42.:49:46.

cover uncomfortable truths. We need you to go down to Ulster carpets.

:49:47.:49:58.

But I am here as a spin doctor, not to measure carpets! Are, but you

:49:59.:50:04.

see, David, we have a major problem. There is no more room left under our

:50:05.:50:11.

carpets to sweep away all the dirty business.

:50:12.:50:15.

But make no mistake about it, Jim Allister is facing the biggest test

:50:16.:50:19.

of his political career. After the party's poor showing in the Assembly

:50:20.:50:24.

election, when only one of their 15 candidates was elected, he has got

:50:25.:50:28.

to convince unionist voters got -- that the TV is more than just a

:50:29.:50:34.

one-man band. It is not a one-man band in the province at-large, there

:50:35.:50:39.

are lots of people supporting them, lots of people wishing them well. As

:50:40.:50:46.

for the party faithful, who turned out in fewer numbers than last year,

:50:47.:50:52.

how did they assess the state of the TV? At how different people saying

:50:53.:50:58.

they don't vote for TV, but I hope Jim stays there to expose all that

:50:59.:51:06.

is going on. -- TUV. If they went out and joined the various branches,

:51:07.:51:11.

we would get stronger. But people tend to sit on their backsides and

:51:12.:51:15.

do nothing about it. Jim Allister will be back at Stormont on Monday,

:51:16.:51:19.

on what has become a crowded opposition bench. There is no doubt

:51:20.:51:24.

his traditional Unionist voiced will still be heard, but will his call

:51:25.:51:29.

for more voters to back his brand of unionism be heard beyond the

:51:30.:51:32.

conference centre? He has four years to make sure it is.

:51:33.:51:34.

Let's hear from my guests of the day, Sam McBride

:51:35.:51:37.

Sam, a familiar message from Jim Allister, but fewer people

:51:38.:51:41.

I think it's very obvious, I think the party was refreshingly upfront

:51:42.:51:51.

about it yesterday, there was no attempt yesterday to pretend it was

:51:52.:51:56.

a good year, they did appallingly in the Assembly election. They lost

:51:57.:52:04.

them both high-profile councillor, Henry Reilly, just over a year after

:52:05.:52:09.

he joined, and with no election for several years they are facing a

:52:10.:52:13.

period in the wilderness as it were. They have been there before with Jim

:52:14.:52:16.

Allister when he first came into the Assembly. He managed to confound the

:52:17.:52:21.

critics at that point, came back with 75,000 votes in the European

:52:22.:52:24.

elections, but at the moment it looks pretty grim.

:52:25.:52:26.

Deirdre, the challenge for the TUV has always been to not to look

:52:27.:52:29.

like a one man band, cast in the image of its leader.

:52:30.:52:37.

That problem is as big now if not bigger than ever. There is no clear

:52:38.:52:43.

successor, I don't think anyone could name somebody they feel would

:52:44.:52:48.

be the successor, and Jim is very much a one-man band. I think it

:52:49.:52:52.

seems his moment in the sun has come and gone, there is a new

:52:53.:52:56.

dispensation in politics, and the media focus has turned to the

:52:57.:53:00.

official opposition so he doesn't have the spotlight he once had, and

:53:01.:53:04.

he is clearly not a comedian. His message does not resonate in

:53:05.:53:11.

Northern Ireland, the corruption, the behind-the-scenes dealing. He

:53:12.:53:14.

doesn't have a positive message to put forward. What would his

:53:15.:53:19.

alternative be? It is ironic he is so anti-the European Union that he

:53:20.:53:23.

absolutely wants to leave as soon as possible and yet the European

:53:24.:53:25.

elections is where he did quite well.

:53:26.:53:28.

The opposition benches are now more crowded than before,

:53:29.:53:30.

and that has arguably eclipsed the part played by Jim Allister

:53:31.:53:33.

You would think there would be some traction for the TUV. The DUP and

:53:34.:53:49.

Sinn Fein are caught in this warm embrace on the hill. I think the

:53:50.:53:59.

difficulty for Jim Allister's been all the baggage that has gone along

:54:00.:54:03.

with his brand of unionism, and I think yes, there is an opposition,

:54:04.:54:08.

Mike Nesbitt is the leader as he calls himself, but the difficulty

:54:09.:54:12.

for those parties is I think they haven't been massive -- massively

:54:13.:54:17.

effective, and I think Jim Allister has been arguably better as exposing

:54:18.:54:21.

things that they have. The Mr Gove the vegan thing he said yesterday

:54:22.:54:26.

was that he is going to keep going. -- the most significant thing. There

:54:27.:54:29.

is nobody that comes close to his calibre within the party. But I

:54:30.:54:34.

think people want a positive alternative. He is saying we will go

:54:35.:54:38.

back to direct rule, is that his solution to this? He doesn't like

:54:39.:54:42.

the cosy consensus he talks about, but I think all that negativity does

:54:43.:54:44.

not appeal to the public. Let's have a word about Friday,

:54:45.:54:47.

when the First and Deputy First Ministers met with their Scottish

:54:48.:54:50.

and Welsh counterparts at And no surprise that top

:54:51.:54:52.

of the agenda was Brexit. Martin McGuinness had some strong

:54:53.:54:56.

criticism for Theresa May and in a separate development,

:54:57.:54:58.

the Fianna Fail leader Micheal Martin also had a go

:54:59.:55:00.

at the Prime Minister but first, I think the British Prime Minister

:55:01.:55:14.

should have been here today. This was her first opportunity to attend

:55:15.:55:19.

the meeting and to meet with the devolved institutions, and I think

:55:20.:55:23.

it was a missed opportunity on her behalf. It is with dismay that I

:55:24.:55:33.

view her absence. There is some evidence the British Government is

:55:34.:55:37.

not engaging enough with the devolved administrations. And

:55:38.:55:41.

particularly when you consider that in Northern Ireland a substantial

:55:42.:55:44.

majority have voted to remain, likewise in Scotland, I think there

:55:45.:55:49.

is a need for the UK Government to engage. Also we know the Secretary

:55:50.:55:52.

of State for Northern Ireland is not on the main negotiating Cabinet

:55:53.:55:56.

committee, which is worrying. And I think overall there has been a lack

:55:57.:56:02.

of proactive engagement with the devolved administrations. And today

:56:03.:56:05.

was a wonderful opportunity that could have facilitated such

:56:06.:56:11.

engagement, and also providing badly needed reassurances.

:56:12.:56:22.

There is an irony in Scottish and Irish nationalists criticising the

:56:23.:56:27.

British by Minister for not attending an event. Fundamentally

:56:28.:56:31.

the honest answer is that neither Westminster nor the devolved

:56:32.:56:33.

administrations really know what they want out of this. Scotland has

:56:34.:56:37.

a bit more of a clear picture in terms of what the SNP wants, but in

:56:38.:56:43.

terms of Scott -- Stormont, one half is arguing for one thing and one for

:56:44.:56:47.

another. On some issues like the border they think it should be as

:56:48.:56:50.

low-key as possible, but if you push it to whether they should be British

:56:51.:56:54.

passport control at Dublin airport, Sinn Fein are against that the DUP

:56:55.:56:58.

are possibly open to it, so it is difficult. I don't think the Prime

:56:59.:57:06.

Minister will be quaking in her boots at the criticism, nor will

:57:07.:57:10.

this -- she see it as a missed opportunity to talk about Brexit. It

:57:11.:57:16.

is clear that she does treat the devolved administrations with

:57:17.:57:21.

contempt. She has topped about wanting a grown-up relationship with

:57:22.:57:26.

the devolved administrations. That is patronising and insulting. --

:57:27.:57:30.

talked about. She has had the shortest political honeymoon in

:57:31.:57:33.

political history, and she does seem to her go out of her way. I think

:57:34.:57:39.

she should have been there symbolically, she should have said I

:57:40.:57:45.

am listing, I understand your concerns. We hope the Maltese Prime

:57:46.:57:57.

Minister saying sorting out the Irish border, what happens between

:57:58.:58:00.

Northern Ireland and the Republic needs to be the first thing to be

:58:01.:58:03.

sorted out before the Brexit negotiations. The other macro to a

:58:04.:58:06.

certain extent it has been sorted out in a sense, the question is

:58:07.:58:17.

where does the border and then go? Does go to Dublin airport, ports in

:58:18.:58:22.

the south of Ireland? That is a difficult issue. At this point there

:58:23.:58:25.

is no clear message from Stormont, other than the British Government

:58:26.:58:28.

line about there being no return to the borders of the past. There is no

:58:29.:58:33.

real clear sense of where it is going, otherwise --. No return to

:58:34.:58:41.

the borders of the past is meaningless. This whole ministerial

:58:42.:58:46.

Council was sold as an opportunity to cast some light on this. We are

:58:47.:58:48.

no clearer. Let's have a look back

:58:49.:58:49.

at the political week gone past in 60 seconds -

:58:50.:58:51.

with Stephen Walker. The Finance Minister outlined his

:58:52.:59:04.

grand designs to raise more money from rates.

:59:05.:59:10.

If you live in a house valued over ?400,000, I don't think it

:59:11.:59:13.

unreasonable to say you should pay more according to the value of the

:59:14.:59:19.

home. The Chancellor said we are to get an extra ?277 million. In

:59:20.:59:23.

another chamber, the Stormont speaker said sorry for not revealing

:59:24.:59:29.

his connection to loyalist group -- eight loyalist group. I apologise to

:59:30.:59:35.

the house for not having done so. The tug-of-war between local

:59:36.:59:38.

councils and the Executive over regeneration rumbles on. The

:59:39.:59:45.

distribution of power, allowing other people to take the lead on

:59:46.:59:51.

things, is sneered at. And political football: the DUP communities

:59:52.:59:54.

Minister made a promising debut. I've never kicked a Gaelic football,

:59:55.:59:59.

so that was a first for me. I was glad I was able to get a point for

:00:00.:00:01.

putting a ball over the bar! And let's have a final word

:00:02.:00:03.

with Deirdre and Sam. That was an entertaining sequence

:00:04.:00:07.

with Paul Givan playing Gaelic football there -

:00:08.:00:09.

but what's the real I think it is welcome, he is perhaps

:00:10.:00:24.

illustrating the new accommodation between the two main parties. He is

:00:25.:00:29.

a younger minister, we may see things moving on. Progress here is

:00:30.:00:33.

slow. We are saying the sports minister should be a minister for

:00:34.:00:36.

all sports at this stage of devolution. He really adopted Ian

:00:37.:00:43.

Paisley's approach, throwing himself into it. He is a keen footballer,

:00:44.:00:48.

this is a line that Gregory Campbell crossed for the DUP. On the sporting

:00:49.:00:56.

aspect they are quite comfortable, not on the

:00:57.:00:57.

have got to make sure London is open.

:00:58.:00:57.

have got to make sure London is not on the other aspects. That's it

:00:58.:00:58.

from us, open. Thank you. Andrew, back to

:00:59.:00:59.

you. Is Theresa May serious

:01:00.:01:06.

about curbing executive pay? Who will be crowned Nigel Farage's

:01:07.:01:08.

successor as Ukip leader? And can the Lib Dems pull off

:01:09.:01:11.

a by-election upset in Richmond? So,,, on pay talk about the

:01:12.:01:39.

executive of what executives get compared to the average worker in

:01:40.:01:42.

the company, giving shareholders real power to vote down pay rises if

:01:43.:01:46.

they don't like them, which is pretty much what Ed Miliband

:01:47.:01:49.

proposed in the general election in 2015. Is she serious about this? She

:01:50.:01:59.

is very serious, and the Tory party probably does owe Ed Miliband an

:02:00.:02:02.

apology for trashing his ideas and 2015 and then putting them all up

:02:03.:02:07.

for votes in November 20 16. She is very serious, and this all comes

:02:08.:02:10.

back to her desperate fear that unless capitalism reforms itself and

:02:11.:02:13.

becomes more acceptable to the just about managing or even 78% of the

:02:14.:02:20.

country who are not earning vast wealth at anywhere near the figures

:02:21.:02:23.

you see in the City, serious things will happen and the political sense

:02:24.:02:29.

of trust will implode. She has already been bartered down by her

:02:30.:02:33.

own Cabinet on this. She wanted to go further and make workers on the

:02:34.:02:36.

board mandatory. They have managed to stop that. What will her fallback

:02:37.:02:43.

position be on workers on the board if she is not able to get it into

:02:44.:02:51.

some claw? We would like to have workers on the board, but whatever

:02:52.:02:55.

they do on the board there will have no voting powers on the board. When

:02:56.:02:59.

you look at what was leaked out over the weekend, that we should know the

:03:00.:03:04.

ratio of the top to the average and that shareholders who own the

:03:05.:03:09.

company should determine, in the end, the highest-paid salaries, you

:03:10.:03:15.

kind of think, what could the possible objection be to any of

:03:16.:03:21.

that? Two things. One, I agree with Tom that she is deadly serious about

:03:22.:03:26.

this agenda and it comes under the banner, that sentence in the party

:03:27.:03:30.

conference speech about "It's time to focus on the good that government

:03:31.:03:35.

can do". She is by instinct more of an interventionist than Cameron and

:03:36.:03:40.

Osborne. But she is incredibly cautious, whether it is through the

:03:41.:03:42.

internal constraints of opposition within Cabinet, or her own small C

:03:43.:03:50.

Conservative caution in implementing this stuff. Part of the problem is

:03:51.:03:53.

the practicalities. George Osborne commission will Hutton to do a

:03:54.:03:58.

report which came out with similar proposals, which were never

:03:59.:04:01.

implemented. It is quite hard to enforce. It will antagonise business

:04:02.:04:07.

leaders when she's to woo them again in this Brexit furore. So there are

:04:08.:04:11.

problems with it. And judging by what has happened so far, my guess

:04:12.:04:16.

is that the aim will be genuinely bold and interesting, and the

:04:17.:04:19.

implementation incredibly cautious. Does it matter if she annoys some

:04:20.:04:24.

business leaders? Isn't that part of her brand? Will there be problems on

:04:25.:04:30.

the Tory backbenches with it? I think there will be and I think it

:04:31.:04:34.

does matter at this sensitive time for when we are positioning

:04:35.:04:36.

ourselves as a country and whether we are going to brand ourselves as a

:04:37.:04:41.

great city of business, implementing quite interventionist policies. Any

:04:42.:04:44.

suggestion that the government can control how much the top earners

:04:45.:04:49.

get, I think would be received in a hostile way. What would be wrong

:04:50.:04:53.

with the shareholders, who own the company, determining the pay of the

:04:54.:04:58.

higher hands, the executives? Morally, you can absolutely make

:04:59.:05:01.

that argument but to business leaders, they will not like it.

:05:02.:05:06.

Ultimately, this will not come down to more than a row of beans. There

:05:07.:05:09.

was a huge debate about whether there should be quotas of women on

:05:10.:05:13.

boards. In the end, that never happened. All we get is figures. But

:05:14.:05:19.

quotas of women, for which there is a case and a case against too, that

:05:20.:05:26.

was a government mandate. This is not, this is simply empowering

:05:27.:05:28.

shareholders who own the company to determine the pay of the people they

:05:29.:05:35.

hire. There is a strong moral argument for it. Strong economic

:05:36.:05:39.

argument. But the Tory backbenchers will not like this. The downside is

:05:40.:05:45.

that this is a world where companies are thinking about upping sticks to

:05:46.:05:50.

Europe. No, they say they are thinking of that. Not one has done

:05:51.:05:55.

it yet. Others have made massive investments in this country. But is

:05:56.:06:00.

it not an incentive for those making these threats to actually do it? In

:06:01.:06:06.

Europe, bankers' pay is now mandated by Brussels. It is a vivid way of

:06:07.:06:11.

showing you are addressing the issue of inequality. I think she will go

:06:12.:06:20.

with it, but let's move on to Ukip. I think we will get the result

:06:21.:06:25.

tomorrow. There are the top three candidates. Paul Nuttall, Suzanne

:06:26.:06:32.

Evans and on my right, John Reid Evans. One of them will be the next

:06:33.:06:36.

leader. Who is going to win? It is widely predicted to be Paul Nuttall

:06:37.:06:41.

and is probably the outcome that the Labour Party fears most. Paul

:06:42.:06:45.

Nuttall is a very effective communicator. He is not a household

:06:46.:06:49.

name, far from it, but people will begin to learn more about him and

:06:50.:06:55.

find that he is actually quite a strong leader. Can people Ukip

:06:56.:07:00.

together again after this shambolic period since the referendum? If

:07:01.:07:08.

anyone can, he can. And his brand of working collar, Northern Ukip is the

:07:09.:07:13.

thing that will work for them. Do you think he is the favourite? It

:07:14.:07:18.

would be amazing if he doesn't win. His greatest problem will be getting

:07:19.:07:22.

Nigel Farage off his back. He is going on a speaking tour of North

:07:23.:07:29.

America. A long speaking tour. Ukip won this EU referendum. They had the

:07:30.:07:33.

chance to hoover up these discontented Labour voters in the

:07:34.:07:37.

north, and all he has done is associated with Ukip with Farage.

:07:38.:07:41.

But Nigel Farage is fed up of Ukip and will be glad to be hands of it.

:07:42.:07:48.

The bigger problem is money. If it is Paul Nuttall, and we don't know

:07:49.:07:53.

the results yet, but he is the favourite, if it is him, I would

:07:54.:07:56.

suggest that that is the result Labour is frightened of most. To be

:07:57.:08:00.

honest, I think they are frightened of Ukip whatever the result.

:08:01.:08:05.

Possibly with good cause. The reason I qualify that is that what you call

:08:06.:08:11.

a shambles over the summer has been something that goes beyond Monty

:08:12.:08:14.

Python in its absurdity and madness. That calls into question whether it

:08:15.:08:20.

can function as a political party when you have what has gone on. The

:08:21.:08:25.

number of leaders itself has been an act of madness. In a context which

:08:26.:08:33.

should be fantastic for them. They have won a referendum. There is a

:08:34.:08:36.

debate about what form Brexit should take, it is a dream for them, and

:08:37.:08:40.

they have gone bonkers. If he can turn it around, I agree that he is a

:08:41.:08:44.

powerful media communicator, and then it is a threat to Labour. But

:08:45.:08:48.

he has got to show that first. Indeed. The by-election in Richmond

:08:49.:08:53.

in south-west London, called by Zac Goldsmith over Heathrow. Has it

:08:54.:08:58.

turned out to be a by-election about Heathrow, or has it turned into a

:08:59.:09:02.

by-election, which is what the Lib Dems wanted, about Brexit? We will

:09:03.:09:08.

know on Thursday. If the Lib Dems win, they will turn it into an EU

:09:09.:09:12.

referendum. It seems incredibly close now. The Lib Dems are swamping

:09:13.:09:17.

Richmond. They had 1000 activists there yesterday. That is getting on

:09:18.:09:20.

for 100th of the population of the place! If the Lib Dems don't manage

:09:21.:09:26.

to win on Thursday and don't manage to turn it into an EU referendum

:09:27.:09:29.

despite all their efforts, it will probably be a disaster for the

:09:30.:09:37.

party. What do you hear, Isabel? I hear that the Lib Dems have

:09:38.:09:41.

absolutely swamped the constituency, but this may backfire. I saw a bit

:09:42.:09:45.

of this myself, living in Witney, when the Lib Dems also swamped and

:09:46.:09:50.

people began to get fed up of their aggressive tactics. I understand

:09:51.:09:56.

that Zac Goldsmith is cautiously optimistic that he will pull this

:09:57.:10:03.

one off. Quick stab at the result? I don't know. But we are entering a

:10:04.:10:11.

period when by-elections are acquiring significant again. If the

:10:12.:10:14.

Lib Dems were to make a game, it would breathe life into that near

:10:15.:10:20.

moribund party like nothing else. Similarly, other by-elections in

:10:21.:10:24.

this shapeless political world we are in are going to become

:10:25.:10:28.

significant. We don't know if we are covering it live on Thursday night

:10:29.:10:31.

yet because we have to find at the time they are going to declare.

:10:32.:10:37.

Richmond are quite late in declaring, but if it is in the early

:10:38.:10:41.

hours, that is fine. If it is on breakfast television, they be not. I

:10:42.:10:46.

want to show you this. Michael Gove was on the Andrew Marr Show this

:10:47.:10:52.

morning. In the now notorious comment that I made, I was actually

:10:53.:10:55.

cut off in midstream, as politicians often. The point I made was not that

:10:56.:10:57.

all experts are that is nonsense. Expert engineers, doctors and

:10:58.:11:08.

physicists are not wrong. But there is a subclass of experts,

:11:09.:11:11.

particularly social scientists, who have to reflect on some of the

:11:12.:11:16.

mistakes they have made. And the recession, which was predicted that

:11:17.:11:19.

we would have if we voted to leave, has gone like a puff of smoke. So

:11:20.:11:26.

economic experts, he talks about. The Chancellor has based all of his

:11:27.:11:29.

forward predictions in this Autumn Statement on the economic expert

:11:30.:11:37.

forecasters. The Office for Budget Responsibility has said it is 50-50,

:11:38.:11:42.

which is the toss of a coin. But what was he supposed to do? You

:11:43.:11:46.

would ideally have to have a Budget that had several sets of scenarios,

:11:47.:11:52.

and that is impossible. Crystal ball territory. But you do wonder if

:11:53.:11:59.

governments are right to do so much of their fiscal projections on the

:12:00.:12:02.

basis of forecasts which turn out to be wrong. They have nothing else to

:12:03.:12:08.

go on. The Treasury forecast is to be wrong. No doubt the OBR forecast

:12:09.:12:13.

will prove not to be exact. As you say, they admitted that they are

:12:14.:12:16.

navigating through fog at the moment. But he also added that it

:12:17.:12:21.

was fog caused by Brexit. So Brexit, even if you accept that these

:12:22.:12:25.

forecasts might be wrong, is causing such a level of uncertainty. He put

:12:26.:12:32.

the figure at 60 billion. That could come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

:12:33.:12:36.

clue. He admitted it. come to haunt him. He hasn't got a

:12:37.:12:43.

clue. He admitted it. He said, Parliament mandates me to come up

:12:44.:12:46.

with something, so I am going to give you a number. But I wouldn't

:12:47.:12:50.

trust it if I were you, he basically said. I agree with you. The man who

:12:51.:12:55.

borrowed 122 billion more off the back of a coin toss was Philip

:12:56.:12:58.

Hammond. It begs the question, what does that say about the confidence

:12:59.:13:03.

Philip Hammond has in his own government's renegotiation? Not a

:13:04.:13:09.

huge amount. I agree. Philip Hammond quoted the OBR figures. He basically

:13:10.:13:13.

said, this is uncertain and it looks bad, and on we go with it. It is a

:13:14.:13:19.

very interesting situation, he said. He was for Remain and he works in a

:13:20.:13:24.

department which regards it as a disaster, whatever everyone else

:13:25.:13:28.

thinks. I have just been told we are covering the by-election. We are

:13:29.:13:32.

part of the constitution. Jo Coburn will have more

:13:33.:13:34.

Daily Politics tomorrow And I'll be back here on BBC One

:13:35.:13:36.

next Sunday at 11. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:37.:13:40.

it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:41.:13:50.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS