28/02/2016 Sunday Politics Northern Ireland

Hello, welcome to a special edition of Sunday Politics, live in Dublin

to bring to you the latest on the Irish election results. What a story

it is. Huge setback for Fine Gael and near wipe-out for the Labour

Party with an unexpected recovery from Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein has made

gains and it has been a big weekend for the smaller parties, which means

we are in a new era for Irish politics with uncertainty about how

and when a Government can be formed. We will bring you all those stories

and the results as they stand right now, as well as political guest and

analysis over the next hour and a quarter.

So let's have a look at those results.

Welcome this monitor our political editor Mark Devenport, Mary Minihan

from the Irish Times and Dr Muiris MacCarthaigh from Queens University,

thank you for being with us. 95 seats have been sold so far out of

158, and it looks like this: Remember there are eight fewer Dail

seats than there were in 2011, so an exact like-for-like

comparison isn't possible. Fine Gael are on 28,

neck-and-neck with Fianna Fail Sinn Fein are now the third-largest

party in the Dail, currently on 13, with Labour trailing on four

and the independents and smaller Now this is the share of the first

preference vote for each party Fine Gael on 25.5%, still the main

party in terms of the popular vote. Labour trailing again on 6.6%

and the independents and others And we can see how that

has changed since 2011, Labour, down 12.8%,

with the independents Political earthquake is the headline

on the Sunday Independent this morning, no question about that.

Mark, wattage or overall perspective of where we are this morning? I

don't think anybody quite wrote the script in advance. You have got to

be famous American political cliche that there is only ever one issue,

it is the economy, stupid, but in this election it was not just the

economy, because the outgoing coalition had the wind in their

sales of overseeing an economic recovery and it was assumed that

disgruntled voters particularly would take out their concerns on

Labour, the junior partner, but not necessarily on Fine Gael, which is

why Ende Kenny seemed comfortable that he could pick and collection

more or less whenever he chose. It seems that he maybe went to late,

and that argument from his critics, that it wasn't just the economic

recovery but how fair the recovery was and how it was affecting some of

the disadvantaged groups in society, that that had resonance and it has

undercut his main selling point and resulted, I suppose, in a Fianna

Fail comeback that at Michael Martin did well in selling that in the

debate and also the growth of the left is probably the most organised

group within that sector, protesting about how things have been shared

out. The political landscape has changed and change dramatically. To

pick up on what Mark was talking about, the message of steady as she

goes, which is effectively what Ende was talking about, and Kenny, the

Taoiseach, the man with a steady hand on the tiller, trust me to keep

things going, I have got the best interests of the nation at heart,

but people did not buy that? Not at all, the message was echoed., you

will see it around on posters this morning, let's keep the recovery

going, and never have I seen a message become so stale and

redundant in such a short time, in a three-week campaign, said the

strategy did not work for them at all. I think maybe halfway through

the campaign Fine Gael realised, we have got this wrong, and try to

backtrack a bit, saying they understood the recovery had not been

felt by everyone, there were some legacy issues handing over from the

economic crash, but it was too late to turn the ship around at that

stage. The me, the story of this election has been the researchers of

Vienna foil, the party was mercilessly booted out of power in

2011, and many people thought they would go the way of the dodo --

Fianna Fail. We are going to see them up in the 40s, and Fine Gael

probably settling in the early 50s, so it has been an extraordinary

resurgence, and I suppose Fianna Fail is ingrained in the DNA of a

lot of Irish people, particularly older rural voters, and I think we

have seen them tiptoeing back to the party that they were always loyal to

previously. It seems to have been a surprise to so many people because

there were those in the media, particularly in and around the

metropolitan media, let's say, in Dublin, who was suggesting three

short weeks ago that Enda Kenny could conceivably come back as

Taoiseach of a single party Government, but in the wake Cameron

did in 2014, he was able to manage without his minority coalition

partner. I don't know if you went on record suggesting that or not, but

those who did got it dramatically wrong. Yes, and there has been a lot

of commentary that it was a middle-class, leafy, South Dublin

attitude, and in some constituencies they booked the trend, Dun Laoghaire

for instance which was a very middle-class liberal constituency,

and Fine Gael brought home two TDs, which is unusual if you look around

the country, but it shows there are areas where people have genuinely

felt the recovery and have rewarded the Government, but the majority of

people have not accepted that at all and you see the coalition partners,

the Labour Party, being very severely punished in this election,

and the possibility that a party, and outgoing party of Government,

could actually not even be entitled to speaking rights in the next oil,

they could be so low, they have four seat at the moment and you need

seven to be a party, to get those rights in the house, said the Labour

Party is a much reduced force now. Muiris, it is another fascinating

story as this situation unfolds, the near wipe-out of the Labour Party?

It is an extraordinary election in so far as two days after the poll it

is still, by this stage we would normally expect some shape to be

formed around whom the Government is, and it is not clear at all, talk

about re-elections, party leaders having to go, talk about realignment

of Irish Parliamentary politics insofar as we consider how some of

the viewers will be more familiar with some form of power-sharing as

opposed to the Westminster adversarial format we to, but at

this stage, taking a longer term perspective on it, you might say

that some features, like the classic Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, the two big

parties slugging it out, neither of them are breaching the 30% mark,

whereby one of them is coming out on top and will be a natural leader of

a Coalition Government, so it is an unusual situation that the parties

find themselves in. That is what is so fascinating about this, the

individual stories which are intriguing in themselves, but there

is no overall picture which you can say, this is exactly how things will

unfold? It will make negotiations on forming the Government really

difficult, because if you have a party which is very much the biggest

party, the dominant party, then it can, to some extent, call the shots

in terms of whichever junior partner it fixes on, but if you have a party

that, like Fianna Fail, just is a hair's-breadth behind, they will be

thinking, shall we do a deal, shall be hanged out for a future election

well be could emerge as the biggest player? And also they have this

concerned that if they were to bury their historic differences and enter

some kind of grand coalition with Fine Gael, it could create a

realignment in politics and it will become more left right and some

groups like Sinn Fein would be able to prosper in the space that would

be created in opposition. Mary, how do you see that developing? We have

had lots of parties in the last three days of campaigning saying who

they would or would not go into coalition with, and nobody else

frankly wants to go into Government with Sinn Fein. Fianna Fail, Fine

Gael, very uncomfortable bedfellows, it has never happened before, they

have always been in opposition to each other, I don't know if anyone

thinks that is workable, but they are Progressive Democrats who were a

natural bedfellows together in Northern Ireland, so anything is

possible, is anything possible here? The difficult with the two parties

is the grassroots. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are traditional enemies,

it would be a huge moment for those two parties to coalesce,

particularly when Fianna Fail is emboldened because the more honest

of the party strategists for Fianna Fail would have said the rebuilding

process they embarked on in 2011 was a two election strategy. I don't

think if they were honest they would they be expected to be doing so well

just five years on from the last election, but they have done bury

well, and they are in a position now to engage in talks with Fine Gael,

whether or not that is wise for the party remains to be seen. I don't

know if it is something that the Fianna Fail grassroots would wear,

and I think innovatively there would be splits in the ranks if that was

to take place. I think a more likely possibility is that Fianna Fail

would act in the national interest, as it is sometimes said in politics,

and would support, or at least not oppose, and minority Fine Gael

Government from the opposition benches. But certainly that

introduces the prospect of Sinn Fein being the key opposition voice in

the next Dail, and that means that, in another five years, if the

Government would go that long, that that party could be in pole position

then to take on a leadership role in the Government. Muiris, do you see

some sort of confidence and supply arrangement, the Westminster model,

support for a minority Government on an individual case-by-case basis? Is

that the only option? Is that stuff that -- is that sustainable in the

long term? Usually when you have a single or dual party coalition that

is just shy of an overall majority, but even that doesn't seem to be

appropriate. To the outside observer traditionally Fianna Fail and Fine

Gael in terms of policy, some areas are very similar, they are as much

defined by the other as anything else. So the parties must take a

longer term view of what the ramifications would be of such a

coalition. But it is still a little bit early because the parties will

have to see what sort of relative electoral strengths they had in

terms of what the final seats are going to be. We could be some way

from that. Bertie Ahern predicting there is no chance of a Government

before St Patrick's Cavan, which was, again, quite unusual, not so

unusual if you are in Germany, where they take their time forming a

Government, or Belgium, why they don't have one for a year or so, but

in an Irish context this happens very quickly, but this could be a

very, very important, strategic election for the future of the

traditional large parties in Irish politics. Mark, you were talking on

the radio yesterday about the Belgian example... 541 days of

negotiations! That is long by any standards! People were saying that

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael will have to see if they can give it a go!

Bertie Ahern giving a realistic prospect that essentially ended

Keddie will go in and continue his role as Taoiseach -- -- Kenny, over

the traditional festive it is of St Patrick's Cavan, with the title of

Taoiseach but not the majority that normally goes with it. It will be a

strange scenario. We will hear from some politicians shortly on the

programme but for now thank you all very much indeed. That is the

picture this morning but how precisely did we get here?

Here's our political correspondent Gareth Gorden with his reflections

If you want to know what is happening in an Irish election, ass

gay Kalimantan is to long before a result was officially announced, the

ruling party knew it would be a difficult day -- Aske pay Cali man.

We have had some disappointing results, several colleagues will

lose their seats, and that is a sad day for them, their families and

supporters. Downbeat, but Martin McGuinness was upbeat. I don't know

what the final tally will be, 15 or 16%, but it is a dramatic increase

on the eight or 9% we got in the 2011 election. In terms of my

contribution to politics, Gerry Adams' contribution to politics, I

think the people of Ireland recognised that we have been at the

heart of the peace process and our party has driven the peace process,

but I think also because people are coming increasingly to support our

party as they have done in this election that is, I think,

absolutely down to the leadership provided by Gerry Adams, by Pearse

Doherty and many others of our leaders here in this part of

Ireland. There was a rare public appearance on the Sinn Fein

supporters from former British heiress turned IRA member Rose

Dugdale, along with Jim McMahon. Something to celebrate as MacDonald

topped the poll. What are you more interested in, the election or the

rugby? The rugby. Why? Because the players do was proud, whereas our

politicians do not. We need to take a good hard look at who we are

electing and who we want to put into serving our country. I'm delighted

that end Kenny has got his just deserts and after that and saying

nothing else. Can I as quite you voted for Fianna

Fail when they were blamed for the mess we were in in the first phase?

Well, the world was going through trouble at that time, regardless of

whatever Government was in the economy would have been into anyway.

Enjoyed the game. Not many did. The one result of the

day we could all agree on. Symbolic of Fianna Fail's revival, back in

the Dail after the former Taoiseach's son lost his seat last

time around. Family gives me motivation but having said that the

electorate are very concerned about the future, and not that concerned

about the past. And the future now is what concerns the Taoiseach of

the country. Clearly the option of a majority Government has gone, the

option of the Fine Gael Labour Government has gone, so we don't

know the results for the other parties yet. I need to know those

before I decide what is the best thing to do, given my responsibility

and my duty as Taoiseach and head of Government, I consider that very

carefully over the next 36, 48 hours as those results become clear. Could

there even be an historic coalition with Fianna Fail? A lot will depend

on the destination of the last seats in many constituencies, and in

particular the four seats, where those last seats are going to go. It

is a bit too early yet to be definitive about that but it is

clear we are going to have a good day. Watching all this was an

unlikely onlooker. I'm studying in Dublin, I'm from an evangelical

background, I'm a member of the Orange order, I'm from a strong

unionist background, and the reason I'm here is because I think it is

wonderful that in the Republic of Ireland they are able to have a

voluntary coalition and in opposition, something we are denied

in the United Kingdom, in Northern Ireland, and I think that there are

many parties in the Republic who will not go into Government with

Sinn Fein, get the DUP props Sinn Fein up, and I think it is for us to

look to the south and tried to push in Northern Ireland for these

fundamentals of democracy. Right now the Republic does not have any kind

of coalition and unless it gets one in the next week and a half, voters

could be doing this all over again rather soon.

Let's hear more from my studio guests.

We have been joined by Conor Lenihan from Fianna Fail and were no Brin

the new Sinn Fein TD. Congratulations. You top the poll.

Yes. I do not suppose you are surprised that you were returned,

but were used to price that you did as well as you did? I have to say we

have an exceptionally good campaign team and we have been flat out since

2011. We were hopeful to win a seat. We were more or less on target. Why

do you think the people who voted for Sinn Fein, especially in terms

of first preferences did? Were they voting for something specific or

against something else? They were voting for something specific. One

of the big themes, particularly in the last two or three weeks was

whether you were talking to working families or families out of work,

there was a sense that there was no recovery for them, whether there was

the macroeconomic statistics or the people at the top, for ordinary

families, things have not gotten better, in terms of jobs, wages and

front line public services and while at the start of the campaign it was

clear they were not point to vote for Fianna Fail and Labour, they

were looking around for something else. I think a mixture of the core

message, that we were saying a fair recovery was possible, but only if

there was a change in policy and a good ground campaign was the reason

we did well. You cut your teeth in Belfast and I am sure many of our

viewers will remember you and then you went to Europe. You have

experience politics in a number of places. The political landscape here

has been completely changed, well on the front of the table -- paper

today, political as quick, people are saying things will never be the

same again, is that over egging the pudding? I think it will take some

time before we are clear as to what the impact of the weekenders. What

you are seeing is the beginnings of a realignment of Southern Irish

politics around the centre left and centre right lines, whether or not

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael enter into a collision and whether those on the

left can cooperate to provide a clear and strong alternatives to

those communities, we will have to wait and see. There are a lot of

encouraging signs although I have to say there is more work for all of us

to do. You stepped aside from front line

politics in 2011 and I wonder with the renaissance of Fianna Fail do

you regret not being involved? I have been working in Moscow. Having

a very active involvement in a electoral sense was not likely but I

came back to be part of their campaign for some of my friends.

Some people wrote of their Dutch mag your party but it has bounced back

well, did you think it would manage to come back so strongly in such a

relatively short period of time or did you think that we were talking

about a two election strategy at least? I am an optimist, I believed

it six months after the last election that the party would come

back. Because what happened within six months of the last election was

that the current government voted in in an empty Dail that my late

brother put through, it was controversial and lost votes and I

think an awful lot of voters switched and that was reflected in

the local election results where Fianna Fail became the biggest party

in the country and generally speaking in our system of

proportional representation, a strong local electoral outing is

reflected in the seats in the Dail the next time around. That is very

much the case in terms of the levels of support for Sinn Fein and Fianna

Fail. If one aggregate their representation in the Dail and local

election performance it is the biggest organisation that kind in

this country. In membership terms and this is often forgotten, while

Fianna Fail had a different experience in a two election

scenario to get back into power, it is a bigger organisation on the

ground in terms of local authority members and also actual members who

go out and canvas and knocked on doors. That is often forgotten by

some people who wrote of the party. Here is the question that everyone

will be wanting to hear the answer to, do you think it is possible for

Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to work together in a formal Coalition? Of

course it is possible. What I would caution in terms of expectations is

that the public in this General Election have voted very

definitively to vote out Fine Gael and Labour out of power. There is

nowhere party like Fianna Fail can ignore that message from the

electorate. The seat losses that Fine Gael and Labour have incurred

are of the same magnitude in numbers terms than we experienced in 2011,

we were very definitively -- definitively booted out of power and

the same numbers apply to the government. It will be difficult for

Micheal Martin to convince ordinary Fianna Fail activists who have been

campaigning to remove this government from power to say that we

are going to put a very significant element of it, namely Fine Gael back

into power. This will not be easy and could take a month or two months

before it works itself out and the first priority for Micheal Martin

and he has indicated already in terms of injuries that he has given

would be to sit down and talk to all of the opposition parties who have

opposed this government and give them the opportunity to be part of a

Fianna Fail led Administration. That is his first priority because the

public have become cynical if the vote in a definitive fashion against

two sets of parties, the -- Fine Gael and Labour and they found that

the system conspires to deny their rightful choice. There is no getting

away from this, it will be very awkward and difficult, as difficult

and awkward as it was for the Labour Party to change sides back in 1992

and move from a Fine Gael led administration and a Fianna Fail led

government. To think you should talk to the parties on the left? It is up

to Micheal Martin to decide how to carry this out but he has given some

hints that that is his plan. His plan is to talk to those who are

part of the opposition. The people in Ireland have voted very

definitively, not in an ambiguous manner, against the current or

incumbent governments. This is not going to be work that simply. It is

anything but straightforward because while you say... It is

straightforward. The people have voted definitively against this

current government and the seat losses are Ken... It is like me

saying in 2011 they did not vote against Fianna Fail. When you look

at the raw figures... It is also the case if Enda Kenny was here he would

say that is the case up to a point but still more people have given

their first preferences to Fianna Fail than they have -- Fine Gael

than they have to Fianna Fail. It is perhaps one percentage point. There

are still more people supporting Fine Gael and I am sure he would

take a different view. It is important that Enda Kenny understand

he has lost the election. The question is what happens next! You

seem to have adamant that Sinn Fein does not want to be involved in a

government led by either Fianna Fail or Fine Gael. Not just me but the

whole Sinn Fein organisation. Is there any point in having

negotiations? We made clear at the start that the government led by

those two parties would not be in the interests of the vast majority

of people here. We said that before the election and we are not winter

break that promise. Micheal Martin said he would not do business with

anyone before the election. He was ruling out everyone else bar his own

backbench. The idea that would be a great surprise if after the election

Fianna Fail come out and do something different, it will not

suppose anyone. Our view is clear, in order for this country to have

the kind of their recovery that we believe is necessary, we need to put

an end to the centre-right government is whether led by Fianna

Fail or Fine Gael I'm I do not see how Fianna Fail could propose

anything close to the kind of policy change we think is necessary to get

this country back on track. It is a bizarre situation where a lot of the

parties are lining up to be oppositional rather than to be in

government. It is hard to see how he can get an opposition out of this. I

do not think that is what is happening. Whereas in addition fame

were being straight with the electorate to say we would not do a

deal as a minority partner, inside Fianna Fail at senior levels, he has

been in Russia and would not know this, they are looking at this as

one of the scenarios and they were clearly hedging their bets. Wiley

were telling the electorate they would not do a deal, there were

strategists in the party working to see on what terms and those people

are meeting and thinking and talking about whether they will do a deal

with Fine Gael. Here is the big question, will it make any

difference to those huge numbers of people who voted against Fine Gael

and Labour and I do not think it will. I will not support a

government led by Micheal Martin. There is hypocrisy going on here.

Sinn Fein like all of those other parties contesting the election put

themselves forward on the basis they would go into government and I think

it is an comment on everyone who is elected to the Dail to take the

election to the Dail seriously to the point that you would consider

forming and providing the stability and the government that the country

rightly expect would be an outcome from the election. It is

irresponsible to say that we campaigned in this fashion and we

will have nothing to do with the post-election scenario. I think most

parties were judged an kindly when they would walk away in the

aftermath of an election and there is a contradiction in Sinn Fein and

the other parties who say they want Fianna Fail and Fine Gael to get

together but they think it is the worst outcome for the country.

Someone from the left said that last night on a panel show. Somehow they

want us to come together, but it would be the worst outcome for the

country! It would be a challenge! I know this idea is novel for a Fianna

Fail but it is incumbent on parties keep their election promises. The

primary responsibility on me and my colleagues in Sinn Fein is to honour

those promises. I have to say, I do not want Fianna Fail or Fine Gael to

coalesce, I think it would be a disaster. I campaigned against it

but we are faced with the numbers as they currently stand and all I am

saying is if we are going to have the kinds of changes that are going

to improve the quality in people's lives, we need something other than

the failed consensus politics. Is there any difference in emphasis

between yourself and others within Sinn Fein? I saw Marylou McDonald as

good as they may do not want to prop up either party but it would be a

matter for the ard fheis. It is a matter for the ard fheis, none of us

are going to go against that. I want to ask you one thing about the Sinn

Fein performance. As we respect in, you're on about 13 seats, what do

you think your final tally will be? We are in contention for probably

another 11 or so, a lot of them will come down to the final counts. We

are well placed in a lot of the constituencies because there were a

good number of left of centre candidates coming in behind us,

there are about 11 or 12 are but some of them are going to be very

late counts, but it could be early tomorrow. Did the party do as well

as it ought to have done in your view? Could it have done better? Is

there a debate or discussion, which you may want to have behind closed

doors, but I have to ask the question, or could the party have

performed better with a different kind of blue to ship? There has been

a lot of criticism of Gerry Adams in the television debates. We will sit

down and have those discussions and do it constituency by constituency.

In some constituencies we did exceptionally well and others we did

not perform as well. Donegal is an example. I am thinking of Dublin

West and Paul Donnelly not taking the seat even though I think he

could have and should have. Any party that is significantly

increasing its Seatech is having a good day. That is a good day for the

party. Look at the make or, you pushed for a third seat and ended up

with one! There is always a risk. I know this from my own days in north

Belfast. When you are contending for significant seed increases you have

to take risks and the good thing about Sinn Fein is rather than

putting individuals ahead of the party we try and take the risks to

maximise the seat. This is a good election for Sinn Fein and I think

it clearly marks the trajectory of the growth of the party. Gerry Adams

was enormously helpful to me in Dublin midwest. It caused no

difficulties there and what that shows is when you have a good

campaign on the airwaves and a good ground campaign, Sinn Fein can do

exceptionally well. There is no doubt Sinn Fein have had

a fantastic campaign. The historical political significance of this, Sinn

Fein have replaced the Labour Party in every sense of the word, not just

numerically in terms of seats in the Dail but also on the ground and many

of the larger parties have ignored, deserted or not been active in local

authority housing estate in the Republic. This party is heavily

involved and reaping the benefits. The Labour Party is now fully

replaced in the Irish political scene. It would be extremely

difficult, however difficult it was for us, it will be extremely

difficult for the Labour Party to comeback ever again in Irish

politics because this is an active party on the ground. I will come

back to you, because it is fascinating to hear what you have to

say, but we are going to cross to our correspondent Shane Harrison who

is at the RDS count centre. Are there some tired heads?

It is a lot less busy here today than it was yesterday. A short time

ago in Dublin Bay South, a constituency in which there were

high hopes that the nephew of David Andrews, the Minister for Fianna

Fail at the signing of the Good Friday agreement, would take a seat

but he has just been eliminated and there are now five candidates

fighting for four seats and counting will begin again in a short time in

Dublin South Central in which there are 52 votes between the people

looking for the last seat, and also counting going on in Dublin North

West where two candidates are fighting for the last seats, that is

between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. How close is it between the two of

you? Extraordinarily close, I will be down to the wire with Fianna

Fail. We have Labour elimination to come in the final round so we would

hope it will see me over the line and be the first TD for the area in

24 years. Quite an achievement if it happens, but you must be keeping an

eye on what is happening across the country. Naturally, this

constituency is a rare bright spot for us on an otherwise cloudy day.

It seems we will come up short of meeting our expectations in terms of

the number of seats and it seems we will have a fractured Dail so the

concern is over the weeks ahead, forming a Government, exploring the

options, trying to see if a Fine Gael minority Government will work,

if Fianna Fail will work, or if we have to go back to the people. Do

you think there is public appetite for another general election this

year? I don't think so, it has been consistently coming up for me for

the last three months, people didn't want to go back to the 80s with

multiple elections. It seems as though this is the verdict they have

delivered and we have to try to make that work first ball. If we can't

after trying our best we go back to the people -- to make that work

first ball. You spoke about the national picture, that it was a bad

result, you were, or maybe, one of the few bright spots. In terms of

Enda Kenny's future, what do you see happening? It will depend on where

the final seats go. In my case, it could be a Fine Gael seat or a

Fianna Fail seats. Seats like that will predict whether this is a very

bad day for a Fine Gael or just a disappointing day. We could go from

47 to 52, 53 seats, it really depends on those final seats. I

remember a previous bad electoral defeat, he managed to save the

situation, getting a deal with the Labour Party. Do you see that he may

have to hang bug if there are to be negotiations with the Fianna Fail

leader? I would see that to be the case, he has been our leader for 14

years now, there is no doubt that he will be leading the negotiations. I

would not say no to a bit of EU money at this point in time! But it

remains to see what the future will hold for Ireland. The business

markets have got to be shaken by this. We need to be very clear that

we are open to negotiation. Other countries have also had problems

forming a Government, how long do you think it will be before the

markets deliver their verdict, and what might they say? It is difficult

to say at this point on a Sunday morning. We need to emphasise that

Ireland is stable, it is still a good place to invest, we will not

lurch from one election to another if we can help it. Hopefully the

markets can keep their confidence because they have been confident in

Ireland for the last 18 months and we had to keep it that way.

Thank you very much. As you can see, still all to play for in many

constituencies here in the RDS, and who knows, it may be the middle of

the week before we know what the final results are given the amount

of constituencies that have had recounts.

Thanks very much. Joining us from the count centre

there, just a throw from the ITE studio where we are broadcasting

this morning. I imagine you are not doing a great deal of smiling today.

Conor Lenihan was writing the political epitaph pew moments ago, I

think you might have caught the end of that. It sounded very like it!

The significant thing, we although in Dublin, it is hard to dislodge

Sinn Fein, so when they get into a position where they have replaced

the Labour Party, it will be hard to dislodge them. It has been a

difficult 48 hours, Maria? It has been a disappointing 48 hours, there

is no way of getting away from that and I will not spin the result, but

there are a number of seats still in contention. We are normally sitting

at around 10%, we are down about 4% from what the traditional vote would

be. It is disappointing, we have lost very many good people in the

last couple of days, people have lost seats and staff members have

lost seats, constituency offices have gone, but having said that we

will take stock, have a look and we will be rebuilding, collar, so don't

write us off just yet. There is a big irony in all of this that the

Labour Party, a left of centre party, at a time posterity where

anti-austerity parties and parties of the left and independence are

doing so well, your party should have done so catastrophically badly.

You had 37 seats this time five years ago, at the moment you are

sitting at four. I don't know what you think the final number will be.

We are in contention for another four. In terms of speaking red and

party funding we would be looking at seven and above. The last election,

for the Labour Party, was a very significant election, and I think we

took votes from constituencies which have probably swung back to Fianna

Fail and leaking votes towards the independents and other parties.

There was no way we would match the vote of 2011, it wasn't possible, we

knew that we would drop significantly from that and we have

done so, and really it is about looking at what happened and trying

to rebuild from there. There is a lesson, the same lesson that Nick

Clegg, I suppose, got with the Lib Dems, you get involved as a minority

party in Government, in a coalition, and you are likely to get a kick in,

and that is exactly what has happened. Traditionally any smaller

party in a coalition, but remember in 2011 the country was a dire place

and we have less than 40% and did not know if people would be able to

implement and I think history will look kindly on the Labour Party for

being able to turn the country round. 100,000 people back into work

and it is doubtful that if we have not gone in at that point the

country would be not in the position it is now. Do you feel a bit sorry

for the Labour Party? At a personal level because I had friends who are

members of the Labour Party, some of the unsuccessful candidates, so I

have a personal commiseration, but there is a lesson for all others,

particularly smaller parties, from what has happened this weekend. It

is not just that smaller parties traditionally do badly, smaller

parties make strong promises to the electorate to get elected and then

break many of those promises once they are in office, get punished by

the electorate. The vote collapsed two and half thousand from 13,000 in

2011, and two people that I know well, they said they would not cut

child benefit, they did, they said they would not cut basic social

welfare rates, and they did, they said they would stand up for working

families, and I am not making this up, if you vote for working families

who voted for Robert and Joanna in 2011 there is a visible anger

because they feel let down. When the economy is turned around at that

macro level, things have not got better for many people, particularly

those families that are homeless, and that is the reason why, and I

suppose for those of us who are committed to real change, who want

to see a better quality society, and many people in the Labour Party I

don't do believe in a better society, you cannot achieve that if

you are in a Government led by a centre-right partly with a different

social and economic policy, and that for me is the lesson of this

weekend. I don't want to overplay this but the

question I want to ask, and I know a lot of commentators have touched on

it on other programmes, are we possibly looking at some kind of

fundamental political realignment or recalibration at the moment where

politics in the Republic of Ireland moves from the old divisions to a

completely new arrangement where people actually vote and stand for

votes based on a left- right split? Is that beginning to happen now, 70,

80, 100 years on from where this date was founded? I studied

political science and history just up the road from here, scientists

were talking about this when I was in college and it has never

happened. There is a strong centrifugal element to Irish

politics, Ireland is different from Britain, it is different from

continental Europe and from America, so I think this kind of solution

that everything would be better off if we had a crude left- right

divide, politics would almost be easy to explain to people looking

in, but I don't think it is going to happen. Our system is much more akin

to what you might call the Australian political system, which

is very similar to Ireland, with nuanced differences between two big

parties, and I don't think we will ever go into a very straight

left/right division. But you are seeing realignment in people and

voters' requirements, they are looking for parties to redeem their

promises. I feel sorry for Joan Burton in this election because most

of the promises made by the Labour Party before the last election were

made by her predecessor, not by her, so she had the unenviable task of

picking up the pieces from a series of very significant promises which

actually Fine Gael and Labour, but particularly Labour, they had

absolutely no need to make those promises. It was well before the

election happened in 2011 and it was wrong and foolish in my view Fine

Gael and Labour to make some of the outlandish promises that they made

in 2011. Let that stand as a warning to everybody in politics, not

picking on the Labour Party year, but you make promises that are out

of your power, the public remember these and can breed a certain havoc

revenge because of it. We all remember the statement that it would

be Frankfurt's way or Labour's way, it was a gravity defying statement

because frankly Islanders in the middle of the European currency zone

and cannot act unilaterally against the interests of pretty much

everybody else in that currency zone. That is the core of the

problem for Labour and the reason it has collapsed. I don't wish this

position on them, Fianna Fail had a very happy if somewhat contentious

coalition with Labour in the past. So you are clear on that, you think

it is an oversimplification in understanding what is happening. Do

you think that is what is happening, or do you think that is what ought

to happen? That was the Labour Party manifesto

going into government and once it got there and it had to agree to a

programme of government and was a negotiation and we punched above our

weight in relation to the programme for government and we delivered --

delivered on many things. Where the failure came in was the

communication between the manifesto and the programme for government.

There is a lesson in terms of the discussion around the current Fine

Gael and Fianna Fail Coalition and I think Fianna Fail would be in a

worse position to go into government with Fine Gael because it would

leave Sinn Fein as the largest opposition party. Sinn Fein could

then potentially up its vote and I do not think and I have a good

respect for him and I am happy you got your seat but I think you would

probably accept that you have gone below the level of what you expected

to get in their selection as have Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. It has

not been a great election for anyone, it has been disappointing

for us but across the board, bad for anyone. It has been good for the

independence of the smaller parties. It has not been bad, but by any

standards, the increase is impressive, but it is not anything

like some of the wilder claims made by other members of the party six

months ago. Not by some members of the party but by some pollsters and

columnist. The best way for a political party to grow is solidly

unsteadily because then people come to vote positively for what you are

doing. We did not want a spring tide because what comes in the quickly

goes out quickly. I prefer to be here with a 60% increase and talking

about 40 seats, of course I would, but you cannot doubt that the party

has had a good election in terms of potentially 11 extra seats and

whatever about government formation, Sinn Fein will continue to do what

we were doing up until now which is campaigning on the ground in

communities that are disadvantaged and arguing clearly that if we want

that crucial recovery and investment in good quality jobs and public

services we need to have an end to government led by either Fianna Fail

or Fine Gael and government about delivering a different society and

that is what motivated the two get involved in politics in Belfast and

motivated me to stand here and I think we have had a good election

and we will a good period of time ahead.

Not going to be in government North and South on the occasion of the

100th anniversary of the 1960 rising and some people thought that was a

possibility. We would have wanted to achieve that. There is no point

being in government are particularly as a junior part -- Michael Partner

to prop up the policies you do not agree with. I would much prefer to

be in government in two or three years' time in the right kind of

government than be in a bad government now not delivering for

the people who I am honoured to have been elected by yesterday. I am

going to pause for a second or two. The election has been a disaster for

Fine Gael. In an interview with RTE, even

McGraw refused to be drawn on the possible idea of a grand Coalition

with Fianna Fail. It can be really disappointing to lose a seat,

democracy can be mercilessly kicks zone -- Enda Kenny. You can argue

about the decision of the people, but you cannot argue with that. The

government of Fine Gael and Labour will not be returned to office and

obviously one has to wait until all of the counts are in right across

the country to see what the options that must be considered are. In the

last week we had four polls with 20 or 30% coming from where we had to

travel in the last five years with our sovereignty gone, there are a

difficult choices to be made. Elections are about choices and we

have to accept the verdict of the people, but that the boat is now

history except for the counting and clearly when the results are in from

every constituency, we have a duty to consider how best to proceed

ahead for the future -- vote. As Taoiseach I have a duty and response

ability as head of government and to continue in this role to see best

how we might be able to put together a government for the future because

clearly the government needs a government and must have one.

Clearly the option of a majority government has gone, clearly the

option of a Fine Gael and Labour government has gone, we do not know

the figures for all the other parties yet, I need to know those

before I decide what is the best thing to do given my responsibility

and my duty as Taoiseach. I consider that very carefully, obviously over

the next 36 or 48 hours as those results become clear. Enda Kenny,

the Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael speaking on RTE last night. My

guests have rejoined me. Welcome back. Some interesting thoughts from

my political guests. Let us pick up on Enda Kenny. Do you think he can

continue as Taoiseach in the short-term in an acting capacity? Do

you think he will continue in the longer term to lead Fine Gael? In my

look extraordinary from outside because no matter what happens or

how bad this election has been for the government, his waltz to be the

biggest party in Parliament. From hearing comments from his party

colleagues this morning, I am not hearing them rushing towards him,

endorsing his leadership. There is a bit of a tiptoeing away from that

position which strikes me as something that is happening very

quickly. I dare say when you and I meet again there could be someone

else in charge and that is not the only party that could experience a

change of leadership. He would have to look at what will happen to

Labour, the Tanaiste did retain her seat in very tricky conditions last

night, but with the party so drastically reduced, that party went

in to the last Dail with 37 seats and is now sitting on four, it will

probably claw back a bit but its support has been so badly eating

into that there will be questions asked about the leadership. The Sinn

Fein leadership is a constant topic of conversation in the Republic and

Gerry Adams had a few very weak media performances. I do not think

he is known as a man with a grasp of detail. On the ground, he is hugely

popular. That is absolutely the case and his boat getting rid of it is

remain undiminished, look how well he has done in his own constituency

of Louth where he is set to bring in the first female TD, Imelda Munster.

I think the party grassroots do not have a problem with him in that

regard. Do you think that we will see political change in terms of

leadership, is that inevitable in the weeks and months ahead. It is

very difficult at the moment. A lot of the party leaders, possibly with

the exception of Joel Burton can point to a mixed bag. There are good

and bad things happening, even for Fine Gael, though vote is down but

they can point to constituencies like Dun Laoghaire with they won

three out of four seats. For the party leaders, it could be some time

and there will be a lot of analysis for the second and third

preferences, the transfers, how the two government parties, where their

votes went to and for those parties who are gaining, why did they not

gain more. Did they have bad strategies? How much blame can be

laid at the door of the leaders. I wonder what you made of Conor

Lenihan, he was determined that if we can take one thing out of this

set of election results, it is that people voted against the government

led by Fine Gael and the Labour Party. In one respect, you can see

exactly where he is coming from, but the point I was making is that it is

still the case that Fine Gael is likely to be the biggest party and

also the biggest party in terms of seats. For the first time in its

history. It is anything but straightforward. Many of your

viewers are thinking, what is the problem with this concept of a grand

Coalition because I heard an outgoing Fine Gael TD who was a real

stall word of the party saying yesterday that there is a cigarette

paper between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael idea logically. If you were to

look at their manifestos and policies, there is not a massive

amount of difference, one party is vaguely centre-left and the other

party is vaguely centre-right, but if you are just thinking ideology,

it is difficult to understand why they cannot form a Coalition. I hope

we have tried to explain the historical difficulties. A thought?

I took his remarks to be mainly positioning. I was not using the

term about censoring, but in terms of the party, because they want to

resist any orientation toward left or right politics because they would

see themselves soon and into a big position where they have positioned

themselves slightly more to the centre-left. They're not giving up

on left-wing votes. They do not want to push them towards Sinn Fein or

other groups. I would be interested on Mary's thoughts on if Enda Kenny

goes, who would take its place? Some of the people have talked about the

Justice Minister, is he the only one would be others you would fancy more

than that? There certainly is the Justice Minister, but she had a

wobbly campaign, there were number of gangland shootings, an unexpected

factor in this campaign. There are too young bucks as well, their

Health Minister the Agriculture Minister, one in Dublin and one in

Cork and they would be considered to be the contenders for a new leader

of Fine Gael if that were to happen. I do not think anything will happen

suddenly. What we have to think about is the fact that the country

needs a government, a Coalition is about compromise, not about cosy

consensus, what you're hearing from Sinn Fein is that they have learned

the lessons and mistakes of the Labour Party. You see that

everywhere, in Britain, how the Liberal Democrats were so severely

punished for going into Coalition with the Conservatives and rolling

back on promises even though they would argue that they had such a

small amount of power to wield. There might be people with a wry

sense of humour back home in Northern Ireland thinking there is a

lot to be said for a mandatory Coalition, because it gets rid of

all this confusion! I will speak to you in a moment. For Sinn Fein,...

For Sinn Fein, the constituency of Louth has proved to be very

successful with Gerry Adams topping the poll and Imelda Munster set

to be the first woman TD for the area.

The constituency had also seen key battles between Fianna Fail,

Our Political Correspondent Stephen Walker reports from the count

Even before any of the results were declared, it was obvious from

unofficial tallies which party was going to steal the headlines. In

County Louth. One of the stories here was the performance of Sinn

Fein with the party President Gerry Adams topping the poll and party

activists are also thrilled with the performance of Imelda Munster. I

take immense pride in the fact that the first day I will be the first

woman ever elected in County Louth but I would be the first Sinn Fein

woman ever elected as TD year. What was the campaign like? It was very

positive, great response at the doors, people were up for a change,

that was very evident. We had an excellent campaign, right the way

through and you can see the results today are looking extremely helpful.

Sinn Fein party President Gerry Adams said the vote across Ireland

showed that people had rejected the political establishment. One thing

is for certain, this change is going to continue. There is not a

progressive government elected this time, that it is only matter time

before one is elected. No, it is our position and I am bound by that I

happen to agree with itself we do have a proposition to go into

government, we will go to the party and they will make the decision.

While it was a good day for Sinn Fein, other parties clearly suffered

at the hands of the electorate. For the Labour Party, there is big

disappointment here and the drop in support mirrors the difficulties the

party is facing in other areas of the country. For Fianna Fail and

Fine Gael there were nervous moments at the count centre as both camps

waited to see if the candidates were successful. As the votes were

analysed, certain patterns became clear. Louth is like a microcosm in

reflecting what the people have reflected and that is that they are

looking for a change. It is clear that Fianna Fail will be part of the

change. I think we will deliver 40 seats or more. For those in Fine

Gael the results across the country did not make pleasant reading.

Nationally, very disappointed, but we must listen to the people and act

on that. Can you see Fine Gael still been in power? The most of thing is

that the people have spoken and we will wait and see what way the votes

work out for each party and it will take another day to look at that. 16

candidates stood here and battle for five seats. The political landscape

of Louth has changed and so too has the Dail.

Let's hear more from Shane Harrison at the count centre. Painter picked

up what is happening there. -- paint a picture. There are a

number of recounts going on, and number of cans are continuing. In

Dublin Bay South, five candidates battling for four seats, two Fine

Gael candidates, the leader of the Green Party, the Fianna Fail

candidate, whose brother is a well-known ITE presenter, and Kevin

Humphreys from the Labour Party. In Dublin north-west, as we heard

earlier, it is between Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and in Dublin Bay

South, Dublin South Central, rather, you have two candidates, fighting

for the last seat. So this will continue all day, possibly into

tomorrow. Thank you very much indeed. Let's

hear more from my guests. A word about the independents because we

have not talked about that in any great detail. In percentage terms,

and indeed in terms of the seat is that that block, if you can think of

it as a block, will hold in the 32nd broil, it is not insignificant? --

the 32nd Dail. So many people have turned their back on what they

considered the establishment parties, increasingly Sinn Fein

being that in there, much to their disgust, I imagine, but they have

said, a plague on all your houses, we don't want to go back to the old

ways and vote along party lines, people saying, I will vote for my

local man or woman who will get things done for me, so definitely

that was very clear in all of the opinion polls in the run-up to the

selection and indeed in the exit follows that the independents would

do well. What that means for Government formation and the make-up

of the next Dail is anyone's guest, we are in uncharted territory

because people in the Republic have tended to be very conservative,

voting along Family Lives, in the traditional way they have always

voted -- voting along Family Lives. So this move is fresh and new. The

history of the state is that parish boundaries were very important and

those individual TDs were very powerful people in their own

constituencies. I just wonder what power do they bring in terms of

Government or opposition to the business of running the country? It

is a complicating factor, isn't it, Muiris? It is, and in 2011 the Irish

Parliament and the lower house, which is what we're talking about,

produced proportionally one of the highest grouping of independents in

the world so there is already a president, but it is set to grow. It

goes all sorts of constitutional questions in terms if you are

relying on a large of independents, can and independent ever have a

Cabinet seat? Independents in Northern Ireland, there is a

perception that they lead to stability but the record shows that

governments that have relied on small numbers of independents are

extremely reliable. The trouble comes from party backbenchers and so

on, those you have agreed deals with love and early on have statistically

proved to be very reliable voters in the chamber, as it were -- those who

have agreed deals with governments early on. Because the numbers are so

big, neither Fianna Fail or Fine Gael, or any combination, could

depend on two or three independents to make the difference, the maths is

so complicated. You could do two or three deals but if it comes to doing

20 or 30 local deals, it becomes extremely difficult, and that is why

it'll be an extra complicating factor in the negotiations we are

talking about with the formation of Government. And the independents are

doing well in general Ireland, which would not have been traditional,

into the rarer, a few seats have gone to independents. There is the

issue in respect of gender quotas and so on, could the independents

form a party, what would the consequences be for the voters and

so on, but they are possibly less fragmented than one might think. In

this other grouping we have the social Democrats, who have popped up

recently as a party, a loose amalgamation of disaffected party

members. Their three leaders have won three seats. They are doing

extremely well. They have eaten into the Labour but possibly quite a lot.

Another small party has taken off. So this other pillar in Irish

politics is extremely important. Explain the Healy Rae phenomenon for

us? Two have been enacted in the same constituency and it is a name

people might be familiar with and there are all sorts of social media

jokes, people wearing flat caps and so on, but joking aside they are a

phenomenal political force in that part of the country. They are a

political dynasty to be reckoned with, their father Jackie Healy Rae

would have propped up the vote he is -- the voting. He did well on behalf

of his constituents, would have bought a lot of money and work and

building and so on into the constituency, so the legacy

continues, if you like, and one of his sons was a TD last time around

and there was much consternation when an independent TD called Tom

Fleming, at the last minute, seems to drop out of the race all of a

sudden and then the other brother, the other Healy Rae, was brought on

board and they seemed to be romping home, they seemed to be doing very,

very well, but as Mark has said, back in the Bertie Ahern days it was

feasible to have a small number of independents propping up a Fianna

Fail Administration, plenty of money washing around, that was the keeping

to stress. The state does not have the kind of funds now to supply

motorways and hospitals and so on in far-flung constituencies around the

country. We will talk about gender quotas in a moment but before that,

we need to talk about the Labour Party and their leader, Joan Burton,

did hold onto her seat but for many colleagues lose out in the selection

and also saw her party's vote slumped dramatically. She says they

will consider where they went wrong. I think in Irish elections there is

a combination of two factors. There is a general national factor and

then the ground war of the constituency on the ground. People

often say that you are talking about a whole series of different

elections. In the constituency here in particular we have made a huge

amount of progress in areas like providing new schools and

refurbishing and rebuilding all schools, investing into the health

services and primary care centres, getting people back to work. We have

a lot of other issues to address, which we are working on at the

moment, housing in particular and obviously general health issues. I

suppose people see me as I have always been, a worker, in so far as

I can, on their behalf. I'm very, very disappointed that so many very

fine public representatives will not be returning under the Labour Party

banner. I have had an opportunity today to talk by phone to quite a

lot of people who lost out, and I know how hard they, their families,

the Labour Party member ship and the support teams worked to return them,

it didn't happen this time. Obviously we will have to reflect in

the coming days on what we do now as we go forward. The Labour Party

stands for progressive politics, the Labour Party stands also not just

for a good economy and better employment and working conditions

for people, but also for social progress. We will be talking about

that next week. I was asked to take over the leadership under very

difficult conditions, together with my colleagues I have worked as hard

as possible to bring Labour Party values, Labour Party principles into

the heart of Irish politics, about getting people jobs and employment,

and about improving people's lives and making social conditions better.

They remain at the heart of what Labour wants to do in Ireland, and

we will continue with that even though today we have had a setback.

The Labour leader Joan Burton. Let's talk about gender quotas. It has

been an issue, Mary, talk about the significance. What parties had to do

under a new law was ensured 30% of their candidates going into this

election were female and if they did not hit the target then a very

significant funding cut would be faced, 50% of their state funding,

which is millions for some of the bigger parties. It has caused

difficulties for parties around the country because particularly "party

of out" Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have had to tag on some extra women

-- particularly parties like. I'm not entirely convinced it has had a

huge impact as yet, though it is early days. Let's just take a quick

look at the state of the parties. A few changes while we have been on

air. This is now with 98 out of 158 seats, 29 for Fianna Fail, four for

Labour, 28 for Fine Gael, 13 for Sinn Fein and 24 for the

independents and others. We hear that Gerry Adams is likely to be

returned in County Down, likely to be returned within the next few

minutes. That is about it, thank you all very much indeed from this

special edition of Sunday Politics. It will be intriguing to see how

things unfold here in the next few weeks.

Join me for Stormont Today on Monday night at 11.15pm on BBC Two.

And no doubt we'll touch on the significance of what's been

happening here over the weekend in Thursday's View,

For now, though, from everyone on the programme,

clearly the Government of Fine Gael and Labour are not going to be

returned to office.