14/10/2012 Sunday Politics Scotland


14/10/2012

Andrew Neil and Isabel Fraser with the latest political news, including an interview with the Conservative Party Chairman Grant Schapps and a debate on the future of Scotland.


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Transcript


LineFromTo

Hello and welcome to the programme. The battle lines have been drunk,

:00:41.:00:45.

the question has been sorted. There will be one question, not to. If

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you are 16 or 17, and you might get the chance to vote. What am I

:00:50.:00:54.

talking about? The referendum on Scottish independence. David

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Cameron and Alex Salmond will be announcing the deal tomorrow. We

:00:57.:01:01.

will ask both sides that they are happy with the rules of engagement.

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This man has a tall order on his hands, he is in charge of leading

:01:06.:01:09.

the Conservative Party to victory at the next election. We will ask

:01:09.:01:16.

Grant Shapps how he intends to do The Police Federation thinks that

:01:16.:01:20.

Andrew Mitchell should be Thyer, but David Cameron does not. We will

:01:20.:01:24.

be talking about this and more. And on Sunday Politics got on, if

:01:24.:01:28.

we will take a close look at the road to the referendum. Where will

:01:28.:01:34.

be partisan campaigns go next? Expect a bumpy ride. -- where will

:01:34.:01:44.
:01:44.:01:44.

Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1928 seconds

:01:44.:33:53.

Before we sort of take that to a ridiculous extreme and say, and

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therefore this party cannot support people who want to work hard in

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this country, get on and doing the right thing, if people get out --

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get up every day at work long hours. I want to stick to the question.

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How many MPs have come up to you and said that Mr Mitchell should

:34:08.:34:16.

go? I cannot recall a single MP. Not one? There are reports that

:34:16.:34:20.

several Cabinet Ministers and many MPs have said so. Review in the

:34:20.:34:24.

hall when his picture went up and your own activists booed and jeered

:34:24.:34:30.

him? What does that tell you? not there. About that whole affair,

:34:30.:34:36.

clearly he should not have spoken to the police like that. He has

:34:36.:34:40.

apologised. The individual policemen concerned has accepted

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the apology, and actually, others are now pinning in and saying that

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this is not good enough. I think that if the guy who was involved

:34:49.:34:53.

has accepted the apology then it is time to draw the line and move on.

:34:53.:34:58.

Let's look at your own position. How to create your own money-making

:34:58.:35:02.

meant, Howe and Michael Green is doing it right now. This is your

:35:02.:35:06.

bit, you are Michael Green. Most people like to pick up their

:35:06.:35:10.

business records, look at Mitt Romney in the United States, what

:35:10.:35:13.

was so embarrassing about years that you had to operate under a

:35:13.:35:17.

false name? I am not embarrassed at all. Why did you use a false name

:35:17.:35:24.

then? This is something I set up 22 years ago as it is this company. As

:35:24.:35:29.

a hobby. My wife and I started a publishing business online which

:35:29.:35:32.

turned out to be relatively successful, and it was publishing

:35:32.:35:36.

some very boring things, like how to write a newsletter. Why did you

:35:36.:35:42.

use Michael Green? Simply for the fact that I wanted to keep my

:35:42.:35:46.

interest in politics, which I was that in at the time, separate.

:35:46.:35:52.

Either way, I wrote on my in my biography, this is not ideal name,

:35:52.:35:56.

I am writing under attending, the raising it -- the reason is that I

:35:56.:36:00.

am going into public service. gave interviews as Michael Green

:36:00.:36:05.

online. Your book, you said, which show people how to make $20,000 in

:36:05.:36:11.

20 days. How do you do that? There is a serious business, in the

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context of online marketing, is about creating a product online,

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putting it up on minor marketing it. There was a 45,000 word manual.

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$20,000 and 20 days, have you done that? It is certainly possible to

:36:26.:36:31.

do this online. If you can do that, surely you should be Chancellor of

:36:31.:36:36.

the Exchequer rather than chairman of the party? This is largely

:36:36.:36:42.

marketing to the US market. they are more bill will? Let me

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answer the question. -- they are more gullible. This is another

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embarrassment to your party. For too posh and a privilege, we can

:36:52.:36:55.

now it at Grant Shapps sharp business practices. I am very proud

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of having been in this business. It was all about helping other people

:37:00.:37:06.

get on and create their own businesses. Helping to produce

:37:06.:37:09.

online games and sell them, the Internet is a huge market place

:37:09.:37:14.

especially in the United States. It was a very brash, exciting time. I

:37:14.:37:18.

was very open about it at the time. It is only curious to people now

:37:18.:37:26.

because they did not spot at the time that I was writing about it.

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Thank you for joining us. It is coming up to mistake, you are

:37:30.:37:40.
:37:40.:37:43.

Welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up: after 10 long months,

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the Prime Minister and First Minister will finally put pen to

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paper tomorrow and will sign the deal.

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Another significant moment on the road to the referendum. Today we

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will be looking ahead to where we go next.

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We will be hearing from the two negotiators who brokered the deal,

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Michael Moore and Nicola Sturgeon. Yes Scotland and Better Together

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campaigns go head-to-head. What now for the embattled Crown

:38:06.:38:13.

supporters? What site will be take? -- for the middle ground supporters.

:38:13.:38:17.

Will the waters still be muddied? What will the impact be on Wales,

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Northern Ireland and England? Tomorrow the Prime Minister of the

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United Kingdom will sign an agreement which could pave the way

:38:27.:38:30.

for Scottish independence. David Cameron will meet Alex Salmond in

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St Andrews House in Edinburgh and ratify the deal on the referendum

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which could end the 300 the old union. The arguments over

:38:38.:38:41.

independents are likely to get louder now, but there is still

:38:41.:38:46.

plenty of debate about the process, as we will now explain. A QPR on

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the verge of the official agreement, making the headline -- here we are

:38:51.:38:54.

on the verge of the official agreement, making the headlines

:38:54.:38:58.

today. For some it seems like a rash. What

:38:58.:39:03.

happened to the SNP's much- trumpeted consultation the I am

:39:03.:39:07.

quite surprised about this. As we have gone through this process, a

:39:07.:39:11.

lot of the prevarication seems to have been about the consultation,

:39:11.:39:15.

waiting for the consultation. I never quite understood why if the

:39:15.:39:19.

SNP First Minister wanted a second question. He has encouraged it

:39:19.:39:23.

somewhat. Now it seems we are about to get the agreement signed without

:39:23.:39:27.

knowing the results of that consultation. I am not sure what

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that was about. I am sure we will find out.

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Perhaps there is still a lot to discover from both sides. What does

:39:35.:39:38.

independence really mean? What will the UK look like in the event of no

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vote? In some ways, both campaigns have got to build momentum behind

:39:44.:39:49.

the proposition. Key Unionists have got to say, what are the real

:39:49.:39:52.

advantages for Scotland for staying within the Union? What kind of

:39:52.:39:57.

union will it be? The nationalists must explain, which they have not

:39:57.:40:02.

done yet, they must explain to the voters what are the real advantages

:40:02.:40:06.

for Scotland wing independent? That argument is not yet understood, I

:40:06.:40:10.

do not believe. -- for Scotland going independent.

:40:10.:40:14.

As the debates continue, attention turns to be available support for

:40:14.:40:19.

each side. Can the SNP repeat their performance of its white -- of the

:40:19.:40:25.

20 other than Holyrood election? One nationalist claims they can. --

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called the 2011 Holyrood election. He will find that one in three

:40:30.:40:32.

Labour voters are in the position where they would support

:40:32.:40:36.

independence. I do not say that this means that Labour is an

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independent supporting party, what I do say is that the idea of

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political parties have a monopoly and support -- monopoly and control

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over their party members' views is plainly nonsense.

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Both sides are already busy, trying to convince people ahead of the

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crucial vote. Here is how they have played it so far.

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The Prime Minister was first out of the traps when he hinted at setting

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out legal powers for the referendum. I think we all the Scottish people

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something that is fair, legal and decisive.

:41:07.:41:09.

The Secretary of State for Scotland says that Holyrood does not have

:41:09.:41:12.

the powers to hold a referendum, but the UK Government is prepared

:41:12.:41:16.

to pass them on as they negotiate. Alex Salmond would then announce

:41:16.:41:21.

the date as autumn 2014. The UK Government announced the start of

:41:21.:41:25.

the consultation on the referendum. One Bernstein that Edinburgh Castle,

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the Scottish betterment launched their own consultation, asking for

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the back for their preferred question. Do you agree that

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Scotland should be an independent country? And so let that great

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debates now begin. The Prime Minister and First

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Minister met in Edinburgh to begin negotiations. Those campaigning for

:41:44.:41:47.

more powers for the parliament but not independence moved into what

:41:47.:41:52.

they saw as a gap. Support for a second question on more powers grew

:41:52.:42:02.

in some quarters. The UK Government consultation on what is now on the

:42:02.:42:08.

cards. Later in May, the lot of the Yes

:42:08.:42:12.

campaign hope to bring people over to independence. The razzmatazz at

:42:12.:42:17.

the launch was much criticised in the press.

:42:17.:42:21.

The more low-key Better Together made its launch on to the political

:42:21.:42:25.

horizon. The truth is that this coming together of family friends,

:42:25.:42:29.

ideas, institutions and identities is a strange, not a weakness.

:42:29.:42:36.

After some political manoeuvring, Pennant packet, the Greens voted to

:42:36.:42:40.

rejoin the Yes Scotland campaign. Fun and games at the Conservative

:42:40.:42:44.

conference this week as the Scott on Office minister let the cat out

:42:44.:42:47.

of the back about the agreement which was then confirmed by the

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Prime Minister in his conference speech. -- of the Scottish Office

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minister. The PM was in a combative mood, but

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it was Mr Salmond to make the most out of the deal. In a negotiation,

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as you normally try to overtake the pudding and say I want this, I want

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that, and then you see what you get rid of as a negotiation goes on.

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What is interesting here and almost scary for the Scottish National

:43:11.:43:15.

Party and for Alex Salmond is that they got so much out of a

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negotiation that they, I think if I were Alex Salmond, find it

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difficult to control my enthusiasm and my pleasure with what I have

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actually got. We are waiting for confirmation on

:43:29.:43:35.

one critical point, campaign financing. One pundit police that

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the SNP could use this issue to their advantage if there is an old

:43:38.:43:41.

Ford, claiming they cannot compete with the Unionist war-chest. He

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also thinks it does not make a difference. For what is interesting

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about campaign spending, if you look is -- if you look at other

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countries where they have had referendums, is that campaign

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spending does not make much of a difference. People are not really

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been bought. It is difficult to change people's minds with money.

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Another important issue is the agreement on a single question, as

:44:05.:44:09.

we have seen there is backing for Devo Max. Where all those

:44:09.:44:13.

supporters go now? You could see the Unionist parties having shot

:44:13.:44:18.

themselves in the foot by having a simple yes no question. Because

:44:18.:44:21.

voters are quite supporter of a middle option, at as they will not

:44:21.:44:24.

be asked the middle option you start to worry about where those

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voters will go. Were those switchers will go. Will they go to

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yes or no? This will be asked the electorate.

:44:35.:44:38.

Voters will continue to examine the key issues, they have two years to

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make up their minds. We are now well on the road to the referendum

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with that historic agreement in Edinburgh tomorrow.

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Let's talk to the key negotiators, the Scottish Secretary Michael

:44:49.:44:53.

Moore is in her studio. Tacky for talking to us.

:44:53.:44:58.

Then the Sunday Times, Michael Forsyth the Scottish -- the former

:44:59.:45:01.

Scottish secretary, said that Salmon has been able to get what he

:45:01.:45:04.

wants. If that is a negotiation that is stretching the language,

:45:05.:45:09.

that sounds like a walkover. regret the fact that Lord Forsyth

:45:09.:45:13.

has chosen to use that language, I hope that when everyone sees detail

:45:13.:45:17.

that will be unveiled tomorrow they can see that what we have achieved

:45:17.:45:21.

here is something that brings together the objectives of both the

:45:21.:45:24.

United Kingdom Government and the Scottish Government, that he will

:45:24.:45:28.

have a referendum on independence that is legal, that is fair and is

:45:28.:45:34.

decisive. An important, it is made in Scotland, it will have the rules

:45:34.:45:39.

and regulations around debt which are familiar and recognised for

:45:39.:45:43.

people of a length and breadth of Scotland and the UK. I think there

:45:43.:45:48.

is a good agreement and I think it will now allow us to pick up alight

:45:49.:45:53.

to the big issues about the big debate that the First Minister call

:45:53.:45:59.

it. I believe that will be looked at the economy and their defence

:45:59.:46:02.

and a place in the world, on all these big issues, people across

:46:02.:46:05.

Scotland will continue to support Scotland being in the United

:46:05.:46:08.

Kingdom. But it was a high risk strategy for

:46:08.:46:12.

due to rule out the second question, because at the moment the polls

:46:12.:46:15.

suggest that this would win out over independence.

:46:15.:46:20.

The critical issue here for all of us, and why we have been engaged on

:46:20.:46:23.

this issue with the Scottish Government has been to make sure we

:46:23.:46:28.

have a decisive referendum. That we do not have a model when you mix of

:46:28.:46:32.

two very different ideas. Independence is about Scotland

:46:32.:46:35.

leaving the United Kingdom, if becoming a separate state, taking

:46:35.:46:39.

on all the burdens and risks that go with that and losing all the

:46:39.:46:43.

benefits an opportunity that we have as part of the United Kingdom.

:46:43.:46:47.

Devolution is about staying part of the United Kingdom and as a Liberal

:46:47.:46:51.

Democrat I am very happy about being engaged in the next stage of

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this debate. I have just helped deliver the new set of powers to

:46:54.:46:59.

the Scottish Parliament that will be handed over the next few years.

:46:59.:47:03.

We are still actively engaged in devolution. The proposition to us,

:47:03.:47:07.

as a result of the Scottish National Party's victory in last

:47:07.:47:10.

year's elections, is that we determine our future within the

:47:10.:47:14.

United Kingdom. If we look at the register for 16

:47:14.:47:17.

and 17-year-old, but you just had that over to the Scottish

:47:17.:47:22.

Government to sort out? You will see all of the detail tomorrow. The

:47:22.:47:27.

important point here is that any detail about to his voting into is

:47:27.:47:30.

not must be in the referendum Bill that the Scottish Government will

:47:30.:47:35.

put to the parliament in due course. Again as a Liberal Democrat I do

:47:35.:47:41.

not have a tough problem with 16 or 17 also been involved in the

:47:41.:47:44.

election, or referenda, but I except that at Westminster level

:47:44.:47:47.

there is no consensus between the parties and you need that to be

:47:47.:47:51.

able to move on. The arguments, if that is the argument team-mate,

:47:51.:47:55.

will have to come from the Scottish Government as it presents this bill.

:47:55.:47:59.

We will see the detailed in due course. That is interesting,

:47:59.:48:03.

because if it ends up in a mess and if there is not a watertight

:48:03.:48:06.

franchise, that some 16 and 17- year-olds say that this was not

:48:06.:48:11.

fair to us, that is another potential challenge, isn't it?

:48:11.:48:14.

is an important point that must be dealt with by the Scottish

:48:14.:48:18.

Government and by the scrutiny of the Scottish Parliament. I am sure

:48:18.:48:22.

that this will happen over the course of the next few months.

:48:22.:48:27.

Right now what we are able to agree on is the fact that we will have an

:48:27.:48:32.

independence referendum, that we will resolve it by the end of 2014

:48:32.:48:36.

and we will ensure that we are doing get on the basis of the fair

:48:36.:48:40.

rules recognised by people for length and breadth of the country.

:48:40.:48:45.

Frankly, finally, we will get on to that big debate. What I would say

:48:45.:48:48.

is the most important bit of this. That Scotland is so much better off

:48:48.:48:53.

as part of the United Kingdom, its opportunities are so much greater.

:48:53.:48:59.

More secure, and it would have more cloud in the world. We will debate

:48:59.:49:02.

this and I look forward to it. Or on the programme earlier,

:49:02.:49:07.

Alistair Darling said that he had concerns about the role of the

:49:07.:49:09.

electoral commission, that it should have been much more firm.

:49:09.:49:12.

think the important point and I appreciate that people have not yet

:49:12.:49:16.

seen the detail, is that to have the little commission as a

:49:16.:49:22.

recognised body right at the heart of this process of the referendum,

:49:22.:49:26.

on determine the question of campaign finance and so on. I think

:49:26.:49:31.

that it is very important and it is to the strength of the agreement

:49:31.:49:34.

that the Scottish Government recognise this, and they do. There

:49:34.:49:38.

will be a proper place for this and so all sides of the debate will be

:49:38.:49:43.

able to see our first set of rules that allow them to make their case

:49:43.:49:46.

and confidence. But the electoral commission, as

:49:46.:49:50.

things stand, cannot determine the question or veto a question. They

:49:51.:49:55.

have never been able to do that in the United Kingdom context. And

:49:55.:50:00.

they only ever do, and quite rightly, make that judgement and I

:50:00.:50:04.

apologise for the technical term, but the intelligibility of the

:50:04.:50:08.

question. Essentially about its neutrality. That process is one

:50:08.:50:11.

that the Scottish Government is committing itself to, and I think

:50:11.:50:14.

it is important that they play the same role in the Scottish context

:50:14.:50:19.

as they do in any other part of the date Kingdom and when we have UK-

:50:19.:50:23.

wide referendum. Sometimes, Westminster is very reluctant to

:50:23.:50:26.

ignore and Livestock Commission ruling, that might not be the case

:50:26.:50:36.
:50:36.:50:43.

The Electoral Commission has a strong reputation amongst political

:50:43.:50:47.

parties, the media and other people involved in any electoral contest.

:50:47.:50:52.

It is good that they're going to be central to this and I look forward

:50:52.:50:56.

to them taking on the normal engagement in this whole referendum

:50:56.:51:04.

process. What should happen about funding?

:51:04.:51:11.

The campaign finance, the rules and regulations of the process, the

:51:11.:51:16.

detail on that will be spelt out tomorrow. In the same way that the

:51:16.:51:21.

Electoral Commission has a role in the question setting, they also

:51:21.:51:24.

have a very important role in determining what campaign finance

:51:24.:51:28.

should be about. When people see the detail tomorrow, they will be

:51:28.:51:33.

able to see what both governments envisage is them playing exactly

:51:33.:51:42.

the same role as far as the campaign finances concerns as they

:51:42.:51:49.

would in any other point What does a no vote mean for the Westminster

:51:49.:51:54.

Government? We want to see Scotland continue as

:51:54.:52:01.

part of the United Kingdom. We have more there economic security and we

:52:01.:52:04.

are almost secured. Yes, but what has a no vote

:52:04.:52:09.

actually mean in terms of what else will come to Scotland.

:52:09.:52:13.

Between Scotland will stay within the United Kingdom. Separates to

:52:13.:52:18.

the debate on independence, I, as a Liberal Democrat, will be continued

:52:18.:52:22.

into debate how we deliver further powers to the Scottish Parliament

:52:22.:52:25.

answer the ones that we are in the process of transferring as a result

:52:25.:52:31.

of the new Scotland Act. But what does it mean to the

:52:31.:52:34.

Westminster coalition wants the leverage of a yes vote has gone,

:52:34.:52:39.

what is this kind for in Westminster?

:52:39.:52:43.

The important point is that both coalition parties and the

:52:43.:52:47.

opposition are keen to ensure that we have a proper referendum and we

:52:47.:52:52.

get a decisive outcome. We are determined to do all that. As to

:52:52.:52:56.

the propositions that individual parts of the coalition and the

:52:56.:52:59.

Labour Party will put forward to the Scottish electorate at the next

:52:59.:53:03.

election, that is still being worked through. We are setting out

:53:03.:53:08.

our stall on that of the next couple of weeks. We want to see a

:53:08.:53:11.

debate flourish. There I am confident that just as it did in

:53:11.:53:16.

the 70s, 80s and 90s and in the last decade to create a new cars

:53:16.:53:19.

that we're transferring, so again we will debate the future of the

:53:19.:53:23.

devolution, come up with her there are some get that endorsed by the

:53:23.:53:26.

electorate. And we will know all that between

:53:26.:53:29.

2014? We're already put in her day --

:53:30.:53:33.

ideas out there and we're report others doing that, too.

:53:33.:53:36.

Listening to that with me is the Deputy First Minister, Nicola

:53:36.:53:43.

Sturgeon. You referendum consultation with

:53:43.:53:48.

the public, 26,000 responses, what does it say?

:53:48.:53:53.

I have not yet seen the final analysis. It has taken some time to

:53:53.:53:57.

independently verified and analyse that consultation. We are committed

:53:57.:54:02.

to publishing that the end of this month. The agreement that that will

:54:02.:54:07.

be signed if they prove that by the First Minister and Prime Minister

:54:07.:54:10.

tomorrow is for a Section 30 order that will transfer power to the

:54:10.:54:14.

Scottish Parliament. It will then be for the Scottish Parliament to

:54:14.:54:18.

decide the date, the question, the franchise for the referendum and

:54:18.:54:21.

the consultation will be very influential in the Scottish

:54:21.:54:25.

Parliament reaching that decisions. But the key issue is, there's not

:54:25.:54:31.

going to be a second question. If the majority of people and has

:54:31.:54:34.

consultation said that if they wanted the middle ground for the

:54:34.:54:38.

second question, you have either ignored or dismissed it.

:54:38.:54:44.

In any negotiation, they require us to be compromised. There has been

:54:44.:54:48.

compromised in this negotiation on both sides, but the outcome we have

:54:48.:54:51.

reached is one where the guarantees in my view that this is a

:54:51.:54:55.

referendum that will be made in Scotland. That has a good out, and

:54:55.:54:59.

one that allows us to get on with discussing the substance of why

:54:59.:55:02.

Scotland should be an independent country.

:55:02.:55:08.

To be clear, did you want one question or two?

:55:08.:55:13.

The SNP have never argued for a second question. We did say that we

:55:13.:55:16.

thought that should not be prematurely ruled out and because

:55:16.:55:19.

that is was best for that decision to be taken by a Scottish

:55:19.:55:24.

Parliament. But any negotiation will involve compromises and this

:55:24.:55:28.

was the difference. Our preferred option is independence on the

:55:28.:55:32.

ballot paper. Do you accept that some somewhat

:55:32.:55:36.

disingenuous, given the amount of time the First Minister spent

:55:36.:55:40.

saying that it was any proper that there would be a second question?

:55:40.:55:46.

That is not what he said. He said that giving many people in Scotland

:55:46.:55:48.

favour more powers short of independence, then Westminster

:55:48.:55:52.

should not be allowed to rule that out. We argued that that was a

:55:52.:55:55.

decision best taken and the Scottish Parliament. We have

:55:55.:56:00.

compromised, as of the Westminster Government, but I'm very satisfied

:56:00.:56:03.

that the outcome of these negotiations is the guarantee of

:56:03.:56:07.

the referendum made in Scotland. If you cast your mind back to the

:56:07.:56:10.

start of this year, David Cameron Watt have to dictate the timing,

:56:10.:56:15.

the wording of the question and the franchise. As a result of our

:56:15.:56:18.

negotiations, the agreement that will be signed tomorrow will be

:56:18.:56:22.

firmly made in Scotland. He if there is a no vote, what is

:56:22.:56:29.

the SNP do? By we are confident that we will secure a Yes vote.

:56:29.:56:33.

As we go through the months and years ahead, as the arguments are

:56:33.:56:37.

set out, as people realise that the only way to secure a change is to

:56:37.:56:44.

get yes vote... And if there is a no vote?

:56:44.:56:47.

I am going to concentrate on winning support and persuading

:56:47.:56:50.

people to vote Yes in the referendum. That is the only way we

:56:50.:56:55.

can get control of Scotland's review Morse's -- resources and

:56:55.:57:00.

build a fair society. The day after the referendum vote,

:57:00.:57:03.

you be the Government of Scotland. People are entitled to know what

:57:03.:57:09.

you do. To the SNP leadership say, OK, there is a no vote, but we are

:57:09.:57:12.

going to head up the campaign for extra powers, that is what I'm

:57:12.:57:16.

trying to establish. We will continue to be the

:57:16.:57:19.

Government of Scotland, but we are two years out from the Independent

:57:19.:57:24.

referendum. I will spend my energies campaigning for a yes vote

:57:24.:57:27.

and I am confident that that will be achieved.

:57:27.:57:31.

You're the Government of Scotland. This is not a party issue. People

:57:31.:57:34.

have a right so know what will happen if it goes against you.

:57:34.:57:38.

I will continue to argue the case for independence and for more

:57:38.:57:43.

powers. But the nine men, I will be campaigning fully for a Yes vote in

:57:43.:57:46.

that independence referendum and the onus is on the other parties,

:57:46.:57:55.

those containing for a no vote, to say what a no vote means. What they

:57:55.:57:59.

have said, and no vote means no change in rolling back the process

:57:59.:58:03.

from devolution. Westminster will be very happy to

:58:03.:58:08.

pass these par so that you, because it is potentially messy. It could

:58:08.:58:11.

be difficult to get this legislation water tight and there

:58:11.:58:14.

could be challenged on the road if you do not do that.

:58:14.:58:18.

I do not accept that that is beyond our capability. The important thing

:58:18.:58:21.

now is that it will be for the Scottish Parliament to determine

:58:21.:58:26.

the franchise. This is not some copulation about who stands to

:58:26.:58:29.

benefit from 16 year olds and 17- year-old voting. It is right that

:58:29.:58:33.

people begin join the army, have children, pay taxes, should also

:58:33.:58:38.

have a say in the future of their country. Where we have had the

:58:38.:58:43.

power to do so, the Scottish Government has already extended the

:58:43.:58:46.

franchise to 16.17 euros Old. I have piloted health boards should

:58:46.:58:49.

Scottish Parliament and 16-year-old and 17-year-old Scot the right to

:58:49.:58:53.

vote there. It is for the Scottish Parliament to determine whether it

:58:53.:58:57.

agrees that that and wants to do that and the basis on was that

:58:57.:59:00.

franchises extended. She did be extended to other

:59:00.:59:03.

elections? Yes.

:59:03.:59:08.

You now have two years to the boat, but your actual prospectus does not

:59:08.:59:11.

come out until autumn next year. If we are to have an informed debate,

:59:11.:59:17.

we should have it out sooner. We have said the white paper will

:59:17.:59:21.

be published in the autumn of next year. But this is a live debate.

:59:21.:59:25.

After we get the process issues out of the bay, we will get on fully to

:59:25.:59:29.

the substance. I am looking forward to that. In the last couple of

:59:29.:59:34.

weeks, what we have seen with the pronouncements of Ruth Davidson and

:59:34.:59:38.

Johann Lamont, from a Labour and Tory prospective, what they have a

:59:38.:59:41.

prospective around his will win back some of the processes of

:59:41.:59:45.

devolution. Both of them think pensioners should lose their bus

:59:45.:59:49.

passes and that the prescriptions and free personal care should go. I

:59:49.:59:52.

once got wants to have control of its own resources so we can choose

:59:52.:59:56.

to invest in these things rather than nuclear weapons. I am

:59:56.:00:00.

thoroughly looking forward to the debate.

:00:00.:00:04.

You are in campaign mode. You're not in Government. You will not

:00:04.:00:08.

take any difficult decisions, even if they're in Scotland's best

:00:08.:00:12.

interests. That is nonsense. The SNP has

:00:12.:00:15.

governed for five years. Recovered for four years and then won a

:00:15.:00:19.

majority. People know that we are a good Government and a Government

:00:19.:00:23.

that always governs and Scotland's interest. We will continue to do

:00:23.:00:28.

that. But there's relationship between our ability to govern the

:00:28.:00:30.

way we want to govern and state decisions that run the best

:00:30.:00:33.

interests of the Scottish people and having the parts that will

:00:33.:00:36.

enable us to do that. Coming up soon...

:00:37.:00:40.

We'll be hearing from the Yes and No campaigns, looking ahead to how

:00:40.:00:44.

they are going to play it. What about those who favoured the

:00:44.:00:49.

middle ground, the devo supporters. Where will their votes go now?

:00:49.:00:53.

And what will be the ripple effect of the referendum be on other parts

:00:53.:00:54.

of the UK? Your watching Sunday Politics

:00:54.:00:58.

Scotland and the time is 12.15. So let's cross now for the news at

:00:58.:01:00.

noon with Tim Wilcox and Andrew Kerr.

:01:00.:01:05.

Good afternoon. Five Royal Marines were charged

:01:05.:01:14.

with murder. The Ministry of Defence our reporter is there.

:01:14.:01:19.

This is the UniChem troubling case for the Ministry of Defence. It is

:01:19.:01:21.

the first time that British service personnel on operations in

:01:21.:01:27.

Afghanistan have been charged with murder. The alleged murder took

:01:27.:01:30.

place in Helmand province last year at a time when the men of 3

:01:30.:01:35.

Commando were out on patrol. There was an engagement at or fire fight

:01:35.:01:39.

with an insurgent. It is understood the Royal Military Police have

:01:39.:01:42.

obtained video footage from that time which shows British personnel

:01:42.:01:47.

discussing what to do with a captured and wanted man. Night that

:01:47.:01:51.

five marines have been charged, the Defence Secretary would only say it

:01:51.:01:53.

all related to the question of whether the rules of war had been

:01:53.:01:57.

properly followed. We are very determined the rules of engagement

:01:57.:02:00.

will be followed, that any abuse will be dealt with through the

:02:00.:02:05.

normal processes of service justice and that is what is happening.

:02:05.:02:07.

The those rules of engagement set out the circumstances in which

:02:07.:02:13.

British forces can open fire. Though never made public, the rules

:02:13.:02:17.

mean that in most circumstances, British forces can only open fire

:02:17.:02:20.

when incorrect contact with the enemy or when there is a threat of

:02:20.:02:25.

imminent attack. This case is now with the director of services

:02:25.:02:30.

Prosecutions, who is likely to recommend a military trial that

:02:30.:02:34.

will take place behind closed doors. That court would have the similar

:02:34.:02:39.

sentencing powers to any criminal court in the UK, essentially, if

:02:39.:02:45.

they are found guilty, they could be sentenced to life.

:02:45.:02:50.

It has emerged that BBC executives questioned to me Savell about

:02:50.:02:53.

allegations he had abused young girls. He former head of Radio 1

:02:53.:03:00.

said he asked the former presenter about rumours of abuse and 1970s.

:03:00.:03:07.

Jimmy Savell was a DJ at Radio 1 from 1969 to 1989. For the first

:03:07.:03:11.

time, we have learnt that questions were put to him by a senior

:03:11.:03:15.

executive about rumours that he was having an appropriate relationships

:03:15.:03:19.

with under-aged girls. Derek shimmery was the Controller of the

:03:19.:03:25.

network at that time and says he challenged the DJ about the rumours.

:03:25.:03:31.

I told him about the rumours. He said it was nonsense. It is easy

:03:31.:03:34.

now to say. How could you just believe him just like that? But

:03:34.:03:39.

there was no reason to disbelieve him. He was the sort of man that

:03:39.:03:44.

attracted rumours, after all. However, another former Radio 1

:03:44.:03:48.

executive has described that meeting as a formal one. The BBC

:03:48.:03:53.

says the issues raised here will be looked into as part of its two

:03:53.:04:00.

independent reviews. The Defence Secretary has said

:04:00.:04:04.

allegations that former military chiefs offered to help our and

:04:04.:04:07.

companies with defence contracts are deeply damaging. The Sunday

:04:07.:04:11.

Times secretly filmed six former military leaders. Some left Office

:04:11.:04:15.

and the past two years and are subject to rules banning lobbying.

:04:15.:04:20.

That is all the news from I. There will be more news on BBC One at

:04:20.:04:26.

6:25pm. The Scottish Government and the

:04:26.:04:28.

Scottish Secretary have been speaking on this programme about

:04:28.:04:30.

the independence referendum ahead of tomorrow's meeting between the

:04:30.:04:34.

First Minister and the Prime Minister in Edinburgh. They're due

:04:34.:04:36.

to approve a deal on the staging of the ballot.

:04:36.:04:39.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she believes they've

:04:39.:04:41.

reached a position which guarantees a referendum made in Scotland.

:04:41.:04:44.

Scots Secretary, Michael Moore, said the agreement will be the

:04:44.:04:46.

green light for the most important decision people in Scotland will

:04:46.:04:49.

ever have to make. A former SNP leader has attacked

:04:49.:04:51.

the Scottish Government's plans to legalise gay marriage. At the

:04:51.:04:54.

party's conference in Perth later this week, Gordon Wilson, who led

:04:54.:04:57.

the party in the 1980s, will tell a fringe meeting that MSPs risk

:04:57.:05:01.

losing their seats if they support the move. He told BBC Scotland he

:05:01.:05:10.

believes the plans are a step towards fascism. Those are strong

:05:10.:05:15.

words and every fascist regime begins in a very minor way. They

:05:15.:05:20.

take decisions which insist that the state alone has the say over

:05:20.:05:24.

conscience and that the public have to do as they're told.

:05:24.:05:28.

In tennis, Andy Murray is taking on Novak Djokovic in the final of the

:05:28.:05:33.

Shanghai Masters. This is the third sucessive year Murray has made the

:05:33.:05:42.

final of the tournament. It was one on a tie-break and it is now one

:05:42.:05:45.

set all. And here's Judith Ralston with the

:05:45.:05:54.

A settled couple of days coming up, but we are still seeing some

:05:54.:05:59.

showers across more northern and eastern parts of Scotland. Some

:05:59.:06:02.

bright as coming through and some lovely spells of sunshine across

:06:02.:06:07.

western Scotland towards the North West Highlands. Highs this

:06:07.:06:12.

afternoon of around 11 Celsius. Across more northern areas, a few

:06:12.:06:16.

degrees lower. Feeling cool with a freshening north-easterly wind.

:06:16.:06:26.
:06:26.:06:32.

That's all for now, I'll hand you Has a single question actually

:06:32.:06:37.

clear on muddy the waters in the referendum issue? Here is Professor

:06:37.:06:43.

James Mitchell. The question what is pit, a simple question,

:06:43.:06:46.

independent or not independence, leaves open the question as to what

:06:46.:06:51.

those who want more powers should too. I have a great worry that the

:06:51.:06:55.

results of the referendum vote will be open to dispute. It is possible

:06:55.:06:59.

that there could be a majority for yes, which would include people who

:06:59.:07:03.

have voted yes, not because they want independence but because they

:07:03.:07:07.

want more powers and this has not ended -- this is not available. It

:07:07.:07:12.

is equally likely that there will be a majority of no porters who

:07:12.:07:16.

include those two want more powers but do not want the status quo. How

:07:16.:07:21.

to reinterpret that? We must have a referendum that is beyond dispute.

:07:21.:07:25.

How the integrity result, I'm afraid, that is not likely to

:07:25.:07:30.

happen without more information. you think the Devo Max campaign

:07:30.:07:33.

will then wither on the vine, to they have a momentum that will keep

:07:33.:07:38.

them going? I do not think that Devo Max, the more powers position,

:07:38.:07:43.

will lose momentum. For the moment, they will have -- it will be

:07:43.:07:48.

marginalised to some extent. Clearly, that issue, that range of

:07:48.:07:52.

options still exist. They will have difficulty finding space in this

:07:52.:07:57.

referendum, because this referendum is polarised. The likelihood is

:07:57.:08:01.

that this issue will remain alive so long as the public want that, at

:08:01.:08:05.

a sizable public -- a sizable part of the public do want something

:08:05.:08:11.

between the status quo and independence. Devo Max, more powers

:08:11.:08:15.

that all the rest of it, it is all very a clear and it has to be said

:08:15.:08:18.

that advocates of this middle position will have to clarify that.

:08:18.:08:22.

That is for sure. There is a lot of clarification required across the

:08:22.:08:27.

board from all sides in this debate. What else could be a factor in this

:08:27.:08:31.

environment? Do you expect it to be fairly unpleasant and difficult in

:08:31.:08:36.

this circumstance? I think that emotions will be running high in

:08:36.:08:39.

the run-up to this referendum and shooting as referendum. The good

:08:39.:08:42.

thing about the referendum, we were told, is that we can resolve that

:08:43.:08:47.

and that people will except the wishes as expressed it in the

:08:47.:08:51.

referendum by the people. Those emotions will continue to run high

:08:51.:08:55.

and will perhaps run a far higher if there is dispute. Let's face it,

:08:55.:08:59.

if there is dispute than no side will concede that they have lost,

:08:59.:09:02.

and if that is the case then remove them to very difficult territory,

:09:02.:09:05.

and would not see dangerous territory but difficult territory

:09:05.:09:10.

at a time when we must move on and accept whatever the result is. We

:09:10.:09:13.

must have a clear result and I'm afraid I cannot see that it will

:09:13.:09:18.

necessarily happen. Looking back, whose strategy has been the most

:09:18.:09:21.

successful? In a way, we have arrived as this referendum almost

:09:21.:09:25.

by accident. The SNP supporter the referendum and have consistently

:09:25.:09:29.

supported a referendum over a long number of years, but they do not

:09:29.:09:33.

think the SNP ever expected prior to the 20 will have an election

:09:34.:09:37.

that they would be in this position. The other parties did not want a

:09:37.:09:41.

referendum, and the one thing that is for sure is that Scotland's

:09:41.:09:44.

constitutional status will be at the forefront of politics for the

:09:44.:09:48.

next few years. My suspicion is that it will not be resolved and

:09:48.:09:51.

that referendum. In assess, in terms of the issue been on the

:09:51.:09:56.

agenda, that works to the advantage of those who want change. However,

:09:56.:10:00.

they should not think they have won this because there could be a long

:10:00.:10:04.

haul before we reach a resolution and before even reach more power

:10:04.:10:09.

has been granted to Scotland. So, they are not that many winners in

:10:09.:10:13.

this. We now speak to the chief executive

:10:13.:10:19.

of the EDS Scotland campaign and amassed savoir who is the chief

:10:19.:10:26.

executive of Scottish Labour. Given what we understand of this

:10:26.:10:29.

deal, when you look at the Better Together interests, argue agreeing

:10:29.:10:35.

that this is a good deal at fair contest? I welcome that progress

:10:35.:10:38.

has been made, all of us what to get past the process arguments and

:10:38.:10:43.

on to the substance of the debate. Some detail must be laid out about

:10:43.:10:46.

campaign finance but it is right that we do have agreement between

:10:46.:10:51.

both governments, it gives us a legally-binding referendum. Let's

:10:51.:10:54.

let the little commission work out the details of this. We cannot have

:10:54.:10:58.

one party or individual be both the referee and one of the players.

:10:58.:11:01.

Let's have the electoral commission look after the process and get on

:11:01.:11:05.

to the substance of the debate. We're in a stronger position than

:11:05.:11:09.

the Yes Scotland campaign. Let's be clear about the ruling, what you

:11:09.:11:15.

think it should be at what you think it might be? I have my few

:11:15.:11:19.

into what the result should be and Blair will have his opinion on what

:11:19.:11:25.

he was the result to be, but now we must decide who sets the rules of

:11:25.:11:29.

the referendum. It is look right nasty little commission it looks at

:11:29.:11:34.

the rules, it is right that the electoral commission decides what

:11:34.:11:37.

the limits should be and the finance. Let the politicians of

:11:37.:11:44.

both campaigns focus on three arguments. Do you have concerns

:11:44.:11:48.

about this? The Alex Salmond has his way he would want to pick the

:11:48.:11:52.

franchise, packed a question, but the date, pack the spending limits.

:11:52.:11:56.

He wants to be a referee, set the rules and be one of the players. I

:11:57.:12:03.

do not think that is fair. Blair? Of the point of view of the Yes

:12:03.:12:08.

Scotland campaign, it is fantastic to be at this stage. We can now set

:12:08.:12:11.

out a compelling case for Scottish independence. We relish the fact

:12:11.:12:15.

that we have this historic opportunity to have the -- to be

:12:15.:12:19.

the first generation of Scottish people who have the self

:12:19.:12:22.

determination to vote on the future of Scotland. We are ready to a vote

:12:22.:12:25.

on this campaign. The people of Scotland are ready to share the

:12:26.:12:30.

issues properly. I am looking forward to the next two years.

:12:30.:12:34.

about funding? Campaign funding and general financing for this. The

:12:34.:12:38.

actual time scale on when the rules should kick in on spending. Where

:12:38.:12:42.

have you got to? From our point of the UBR in an unregulated period.

:12:43.:12:47.

As a campaign they are tried to bring in money to run a campaign of

:12:47.:12:52.

this scale and quality that this issue demands. Our focus is to make

:12:52.:12:55.

sure we have the funding to do justice to this cause. She did the

:12:55.:13:01.

cat? Not at this stage, but during the controlled 16 week period there

:13:01.:13:04.

should be caps, and now there should be a discussion as to what

:13:04.:13:08.

level of spending as appropriate. The key thing that I think everyone

:13:08.:13:12.

would want to see is that there is a fair process and outcome so that

:13:12.:13:17.

both sides during the formal period, at 16 week period prior to the vote,

:13:17.:13:20.

are working on a level playing field and spending equivalent sums

:13:20.:13:26.

of money. So the three big parties of Better Together should not be

:13:26.:13:31.

allocated larger funding on basis of their vote? That to be fair?

:13:31.:13:35.

That is for the electoral commission to decide. Let the

:13:35.:13:39.

electoral commission decide. There will be heated debate over the next

:13:39.:13:42.

few years as to whether we are better off as part of the United

:13:42.:13:47.

Kingdom or not. West evader politics on it, fair enough, but do

:13:47.:13:52.

not divide her country. We must make sure that the country comes

:13:52.:13:57.

behind affair and legal referendum that no one can dispute. I hope

:13:57.:14:01.

that this decision is to stay part of the UK, and they hope that all

:14:01.:14:04.

sides had been come together to make sure that we have a fairer and

:14:04.:14:09.

more prosperous Scotland. As James Mitchell says, is the danger not

:14:09.:14:12.

that there will be no very large one way or the other boat and we

:14:12.:14:17.

could be in an extremely divisive time? Either side will be able to

:14:17.:14:23.

interpret this whatever way they want. I am for a majority in favour

:14:23.:14:28.

of independence and 2014. What if there is not? In the last few

:14:28.:14:33.

months, some people have tuned out a little bit. They want the

:14:33.:14:36.

politicians to sort out the mechanics, then we will engage with

:14:36.:14:39.

the debate. Now we have the mechanics partly determined, the

:14:39.:14:42.

compelling case for independence over the next few tears will give

:14:42.:14:48.

us a majority in 2014. Have the SNP lost momentum because of the amount

:14:48.:14:51.

of time it has taken? They had tremendous momentum after the

:14:51.:14:55.

Holyrood results, but the latest Paul is against them. I do not

:14:55.:15:00.

speak for the SNP, but from the Yes Scott a prospective... The SNP a

:15:00.:15:04.

major part of this campaign, they have lost momentum. You fundamental

:15:04.:15:08.

key players have lost political momentum. That momentum has

:15:08.:15:13.

dissipated. The Yes Scotland campaign has gained a great deal of

:15:13.:15:16.

momentum lately. We have laid the groundwork for the biggest campaign

:15:16.:15:20.

that Scotland will have ever seen. We have put together a fantastic

:15:20.:15:25.

campaign team. We have been lame this ground work, we have recently

:15:25.:15:30.

had the Scottish Green Party committee to this campaign. We have

:15:30.:15:34.

a significant individuals committing to the campaign like

:15:34.:15:37.

Scotland's most successful businessman. The momentum is with

:15:37.:15:42.

us. The polls are showing that this is not the case. The reason that

:15:42.:15:45.

momentum has fallen for the pro- independence camp is not because of

:15:45.:15:49.

the process accounts, it is because of the dishonesty in terms of the

:15:49.:15:53.

arguments for independence. One of the first press releases that

:15:53.:15:56.

letter in as chairman of the Yes campaign was to promise honesty and

:15:56.:16:01.

transparency. We have not have that. Will we see the publishing about

:16:01.:16:04.

the legal advice as to whether Scotland will be a member of the

:16:04.:16:10.

you? Know we have not. We have seen the Yes campaign stop that

:16:10.:16:14.

information being shared. Blair said he is but a spokesman for the

:16:14.:16:18.

SNP, but this as an SNP campaign in everything but name. We must make

:16:18.:16:22.

sure that we expose the real arguments that the SNP are saying,

:16:22.:16:26.

decide what independence will look like and what we cannot have is a

:16:26.:16:30.

kind of heady Ferry attitude from the SNP. That all of the things

:16:30.:16:33.

that you like will stay the same manner of things you do not will

:16:33.:16:38.

lot. Will be no prior to the referendum exactly what role will

:16:38.:16:45.

mean a further referenda? Absolutely. Better Together have

:16:45.:16:49.

adopted do to explain why you will be better off as part of it Kingdom.

:16:49.:16:53.

It is the job of the political party to set out have visit of

:16:53.:16:56.

Scotland for the future. My vision of Scotland is different from

:16:56.:17:03.

Blair's will thus be available to Scotland before 2014? We will start

:17:03.:17:06.

talking about the real challenges facing Scotland, which Johann

:17:06.:17:10.

Lamont has already done in the past week to ten days, but we'll talk

:17:10.:17:14.

about these challenges in the run- up to 2014. The no campaign had

:17:14.:17:17.

demonstrated no vision or ambition for Scott a battle, what we know is

:17:17.:17:21.

that the only thing that is holding it together is the desire to hold

:17:21.:17:25.

Scotland back. We have set out and will continue to set out a very

:17:25.:17:30.

positive vision of what Scotland can do and what copper can be.

:17:30.:17:35.

There are important economic arguments in favour of independence.

:17:35.:17:38.

The compelling Archant is the Scottish desire for a fairer and

:17:38.:17:44.

more equal society. -- a compelling argument. Benighted kingdom has

:17:44.:17:49.

become a more unfair and unequal society.

:17:49.:17:53.

Blair Jenkins, what you will set out is a negotiating position that

:17:53.:17:56.

you may are may not be able to deliver. I am not sure what you

:17:56.:18:02.

mean. In terms of the proposition, he say that if you vote yes, then X

:18:02.:18:05.

Y and Z will happen. He cannot actually say that X Y and Z will

:18:06.:18:09.

happen because you do not know what party will be in power, if he did

:18:09.:18:12.

not know the outcome of the negotiations. That is called

:18:12.:18:17.

democracy. Whichever party wins the referendum, the first General

:18:17.:18:22.

Election of Scotland will be up to the people of Scotland. There are

:18:22.:18:27.

no insurmountable obstacles. Other than the people Scotland wishing to

:18:27.:18:31.

be independent. This is the point, this is a real chance for Labour,

:18:31.:18:35.

if you are proactive and have a real positive vision, you could do

:18:35.:18:39.

very well and 2016. The referendum is not end game for the Labour

:18:39.:18:43.

Party. The endgame for the Labour Party is to create a more fair and

:18:43.:18:48.

equal society. Independence is the endgame for the SNP. There are

:18:48.:18:52.

talks about transparency, Blair is try to tell us whether or not he

:18:52.:18:56.

believes we should have the policy of the legal advice on the EU,

:18:56.:18:59.

perhaps he should tell us about the advice from the Treasury about

:18:59.:19:02.

whether the Bank of England would be a pack of last resort, whether

:19:02.:19:06.

we would still have the financial services authority regulation from

:19:06.:19:10.

across the native kingdom? These questions still me to be answered.

:19:10.:19:13.

The great thing about having two years is that a lot of the

:19:13.:19:16.

distortion and the misinformation that has pitted by the no campaign

:19:16.:19:21.

can be overcome. There is no question that Scotland will

:19:21.:19:25.

continue to be part of the European Union. There is no issue about that

:19:25.:19:28.

whatsoever. What was the advice? The great task of the next two

:19:28.:19:32.

years is to overcome a lot of the distortion and misinformation. The

:19:32.:19:35.

goal which today shows that the majority news in favour of

:19:35.:19:39.

independence if they believe that Scotland will be financially better

:19:39.:19:44.

off, this Dimitri to open people are to the second. We genuinely are

:19:44.:19:54.
:19:54.:19:55.

at a time. He will come back to $:/STARTFEED

:19:55.:20:05.

Westminster will take the first critical step of laying down a

:20:05.:20:09.

section 30 order, which gives Holyrood a part to hold a

:20:09.:20:13.

referendum by the end of 2014. Later this month, the results of

:20:13.:20:17.

the Scottish Government's independence consultation, which

:20:17.:20:21.

received 26,000 responses. Electoral Commission will test the

:20:21.:20:25.

fairness and clarity of the question. Early next year, having

:20:25.:20:29.

been through the Commons and the house of Lords, the section 30

:20:29.:20:33.

order must be agreed by the Privy Council, which bats the process

:20:33.:20:37.

into Holyrood's Court, paving the way for a referendum Bill which

:20:37.:20:41.

will set out the rules for the ballot. It then makes its way

:20:41.:20:48.

through Holyrood. If voted through their MSPs of stage three, at it

:20:48.:20:51.

receives Royal Assent. The Scottish Government publish a white paper,

:20:52.:20:56.

what they call a prospectus for independence, expects other parties

:20:56.:21:00.

to follow suit with their future visions of Scotland. The campaign

:21:01.:21:04.

intensified in the summer of 2014 as the official 16 the electoral

:21:04.:21:11.

period gets under way. Leading up to that all-important ballot,

:21:11.:21:14.

expected in October 2014. The result is anyone's guess, but of

:21:14.:21:17.

Scotland votes yes, the Scottish Government will have a mandate to

:21:17.:21:23.

begin negotiations for Westminster. The referendum results aside, there

:21:23.:21:28.

will be a UK general election in 20th May 15. A Holyrood election

:21:28.:21:35.

the following year. But for what? Asked first Government for the

:21:35.:21:40.

Independent Scott and up or continue to be governed by the UK.

:21:40.:21:43.

But here to give us some more detail the psephologist John

:21:43.:21:45.

Curtice. Now John, we asked you to do some

:21:45.:21:49.

sums for us, to find out how many more people could vote if 16 and 17

:21:49.:21:52.

year olds become eligible. According to the latest register,

:21:52.:21:56.

there are nearly 4 million people aged 18 and over eligible to vote.

:21:56.:22:00.

There are also just over 44,000 17- year-olds. If we assume the same

:22:00.:22:03.

number of 16-year-olds manage to make it on to the register, that

:22:03.:22:06.

would mean a total electorate of just over 4 million, of which

:22:06.:22:09.

88,682 would be 16 and 17-year-olds, an increase of 2.2% of the

:22:09.:22:19.

electorate. Range could go from 2.2% to 2.7% but either way, that's

:22:19.:22:29.
:22:29.:22:36.

not a significant number. Even if we assume that those voters

:22:37.:22:44.

are more in favour of yes vote, there is no firm evidence for that.

:22:44.:22:47.

Even if you seen their tent 0.4 times likely to vote for

:22:47.:22:51.

independence than anybody else, maybe too 0.5% of the votes will be

:22:51.:22:55.

cast by 16 rolls and 17 year-olds, even if you make that assumption,

:22:55.:23:01.

you have to get 49.75 % of people over 18 to vote Yes before it will

:23:01.:23:05.

make a difference. The probability that this could is actually going

:23:05.:23:11.

to make a difference to the outcome was very unlikely. Frankly, this is

:23:11.:23:19.

a relatively academic question. What about the poor to have been

:23:19.:23:23.

interpreting recently, what are they indicating?

:23:23.:23:26.

If you take all of the opinion polls that have been conducted

:23:26.:23:30.

since May of this year, which in some way or another have asked

:23:30.:23:38.

people how they would vote in the referendum and take out the don't

:23:38.:23:41.

knows and the moment says and look at what these polls are pointing to

:23:41.:23:44.

in terms of the referendum result. In the terms of the most recent

:23:44.:23:50.

polls, there are 37% yes and 62% know. As you can see from the

:23:50.:23:54.

graphic, since last year, there has actually been something of a

:23:54.:23:58.

slippage in the support for yes. The polls conducted between May and

:23:58.:24:03.

December last year, we had 41% in favour of yes. But slipped to 40 in

:24:03.:24:08.

the first four months of this year and now it is down to 37%. It is a

:24:08.:24:14.

3-2 split at the moment, were the Yes side is moving its -- are

:24:14.:24:19.

losing ground. Do what about funding issues?

:24:19.:24:23.

In his consultation paper published back in January, the Scottish

:24:23.:24:27.

Government was proposing very tight funding limits. For example, the

:24:27.:24:30.

amount of money the official campaigns can spend will be less

:24:30.:24:34.

than half the amount of money the parties can spend on appalling

:24:34.:24:37.

campaign. They were also suggesting that any party that was inside the

:24:37.:24:40.

Scottish Parliament, irrespective of its size, should be treated

:24:40.:24:45.

equally, which means the Greens should spend as much as the SNP. It

:24:45.:24:49.

looks as if what we're hearing this morning, that line may not be held

:24:49.:24:53.

and that the agreement will say something like, the Electoral

:24:53.:24:56.

Commission will give advice as to what should happen. What we know

:24:56.:25:00.

from the Electoral Commission's response to the Scots Government's

:25:00.:25:08.

consultation in January, they think their limit should be much higher.

:25:08.:25:12.

�1.5 million or official organisations. The SNP is concerns

:25:12.:25:16.

that the higher the spending level, the more a foundation set will be

:25:16.:25:22.

to the union side. What about public funding?

:25:22.:25:26.

Nobody has mentioned this yet. Usually end referendum campaigns in

:25:26.:25:30.

the UK, the official yes and no side of the referendum is given a

:25:30.:25:34.

Mounties of public funding to put forward their arguments. The SNP

:25:34.:25:38.

said they should not happen. The UK Government for silent on the issue.

:25:38.:25:42.

The Electoral Commission says it will happen. We need to make sure

:25:42.:25:45.

that the problem that arose in Wales, that nobody applied to be

:25:46.:25:49.

the official no campaigns are no public funding could happening,

:25:49.:25:53.

that needs to be resolved. Well taxpayers' money be spent on

:25:53.:25:56.

promoting independence are proposing independence, will be

:25:56.:26:04.

wait to see. Tabloid newspaper headlines will be written anyway!

:26:04.:26:11.

Who will foot the bill? We will discover tomorrow that the

:26:11.:26:14.

funding for this referendum, the cost of running it, the cost of

:26:14.:26:18.

trying to enfranchise 16.17 euros rules and any public funding is

:26:18.:26:22.

going to fall within the Scottish block.

:26:23.:26:27.

The role of the Electoral Commission in the question. Do if

:26:27.:26:31.

we could afford to the standard procedure in UK elections, then

:26:31.:26:34.

Electoral Commission will test the question that the SNP have already

:26:34.:26:39.

put forward and they will come back with advice to what the question

:26:39.:26:43.

should be. The Scottish Parliament will not be

:26:43.:26:47.

required to follow that advice, but usually, they should do, but there

:26:47.:26:51.

is one case the UK Government refuse to accept the commission's

:26:51.:26:56.

device. Be set a dangerous precedent, but hopefully they will

:26:56.:26:59.

follow what usually happens, which has told the Electoral Commission's

:26:59.:27:03.

advice. Thank you.

:27:03.:27:05.

So you've heard from the politicians, the campaign groups,

:27:05.:27:07.

the academics and some political commentators. But what about the

:27:07.:27:10.

most powerful group - you, the electorate? We've been to the north,

:27:10.:27:14.

south, east and west of Scotland to gather some opinions. It's an

:27:14.:27:23.

unscientific sample of course, but good fuel for debate. I don't think

:27:24.:27:30.

it's been very well discussed among the politicians and amongst the

:27:30.:27:35.

normal everyday man in the street. This has been going on from time

:27:35.:27:41.

immemorial. It is a good thing for people to

:27:41.:27:49.

have the opportunity to decide, but there should be an option for devo

:27:49.:27:58.

max as well. We should stay as we are. I will not be voting for it.

:27:58.:28:02.

want independence, politically, but I do not want a border between me

:28:02.:28:08.

in England. It should just be yes or no. Scotland should get more

:28:08.:28:18.

powers. I would be quite happy with BS. I believe they should get more

:28:18.:28:23.

or clout in what they decide, but as far as being independent from

:28:23.:28:26.

the rest of the United Kingdom, and I don't think it is a feasible

:28:26.:28:35.

thing. It needs to be done on a gradual basis. If you get more

:28:35.:28:38.

powers in the election, you will end up being independent.

:28:38.:28:42.

Well, where now for the supporters of a second question? Joining me in

:28:42.:28:44.

the studio are Ben Thomson, Chairman of the think-tank Reform

:28:44.:28:47.

Scotland and founding member of Devo Plus, and Martin Sime, the

:28:47.:28:49.

Chief Executive of the Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations,

:28:49.:28:55.

who has been advocating the need for a second question. Do you feel

:28:55.:29:01.

you have been led up the garden path?

:29:01.:29:05.

We're disappointed. The biggest problem the second question had is

:29:05.:29:09.

that it would win hands down and would isolate the fundamentalist

:29:09.:29:11.

camps of the essence no and it actually strikes a chord with

:29:12.:29:14.

people and Scotland that they want to see more powers shorter the

:29:14.:29:20.

depends. All four polling evidence suggested that this is the case.

:29:20.:29:25.

Why have the politicians on this? It is back to being a purely

:29:25.:29:29.

political referendum. We have a political fix that suits everyone.

:29:29.:29:32.

Everybody else and you show this morning is very happy with the deal

:29:32.:29:36.

was has been struck. But a significant portion of the

:29:36.:29:41.

population will be disenfranchised. What to make about the SNP

:29:41.:29:45.

consultation on independence, but it is not out yet. What you think

:29:45.:29:48.

it will show? I think it also very wide range of

:29:48.:29:51.

views. People have lots of different visions for the future of

:29:51.:29:56.

Scotland. Everybody will welcome an opportunity to have that debate.

:29:56.:30:02.

But the idea that there can only be one of two answers -- one of two

:30:02.:30:06.

answers, everything having to be seen as a yes or no, strikes me as

:30:06.:30:09.

being simplistic. A those who want more powers, will

:30:09.:30:13.

they vote yes or no? I think the one good silver lining

:30:13.:30:17.

and this is that we have stopped talking about process so much and

:30:17.:30:22.

actually stopped -- started deliver the substance on both sides. Both

:30:22.:30:27.

discovers Government have to set out what yes vote really means. We

:30:27.:30:32.

talked about monetary union, Union of regulators, Union of the head of

:30:32.:30:35.

state, all of these things will have to be worked out. They will be

:30:35.:30:40.

unions in an independent state. The other three parties will have to

:30:40.:30:44.

talk about moving beyond where a bed lackeys. The will of the people

:30:44.:30:47.

may be mad. In those discussions, we are heading from both them some

:30:47.:30:54.

to the centre, which is where we have always been.

:30:54.:30:58.

Do you think it will be more attractive to people?

:30:58.:31:03.

30% of people are fully supportive of independence, 30% just what the

:31:03.:31:07.

status quo, the 40% and the Middle what more powers but do not want

:31:07.:31:11.

full independence. The real question is, can each side provide

:31:11.:31:14.

something in the middle that is acceptable and both sides are

:31:14.:31:19.

trying to win that middle ground. That actually plays into the devo

:31:19.:31:24.

max side, which is how do we get that into a middle ground.

:31:24.:31:28.

Even if it does play into the devo max side, there's no word for it to

:31:28.:31:35.

go, so Audi challenge this? That is the point. Each party will

:31:35.:31:40.

have its own position going into the 2015 election, general election

:31:40.:31:43.

on the future of devolution. But the time we get to the referendum,

:31:43.:31:46.

we're going to have lots of different positioning from

:31:46.:31:50.

different political parties. There is no script for taking devolution

:31:50.:31:54.

for words in the kind of way which we have been talking of the last

:31:54.:31:58.

nine months. The word you expect the boat to go?

:31:58.:32:03.

I think it is an open question. Unfortunately, it has become a

:32:03.:32:07.

binary question. Everything is to play for for the politicians. But

:32:07.:32:11.

the idea of getting a substantial parts that the majority of people

:32:11.:32:15.

and Scotstoun seem to want has receded.

:32:15.:32:19.

I disagree with that. I think you can get there. I did the three

:32:19.:32:27.

Unionist parties are already doing commissions. The report was

:32:27.:32:31.

highlighted in the Sunday Times today. Labour have set up their own

:32:31.:32:35.

devolution commission. That is also look at greater powers. And the

:32:35.:32:39.

Prime Minister has talked about moving greater powers. So in terms

:32:39.:32:44.

of getting to devo max, we can see the potential for all three

:32:44.:32:48.

Unionist parties actually setting up something that is pretty close.

:32:48.:32:52.

If any group is to have a mandate in this, how important is it that

:32:52.:32:55.

it is absolutely explicit what they will argue for before the

:32:55.:32:59.

referendum? We are setting out at paper this

:32:59.:33:03.

week about how you reach that process. That will set out how it's

:33:03.:33:08.

going to work. The three parties must come together and set out a

:33:08.:33:15.

proposal that they can all signed up to. Calman has not been

:33:15.:33:22.

delivered. --, has been delivered. There is a mechanism if parties

:33:22.:33:27.

choose to do so. Carmen was quite a marginal advance

:33:27.:33:30.

in devolution. What the three parties have uncommon in terms of

:33:30.:33:33.

the common understanding in terms of where we might go from here is

:33:33.:33:37.

actually very small indeed. Any consensus opposition from the

:33:37.:33:40.

Better Together camp will be another marginal improvement. It

:33:40.:33:44.

will not address real issues of tax, the economy and welfare, which

:33:44.:33:49.

affect most of his people. If Ed Miliband stays ahead in the

:33:49.:33:53.

polls for Westminster, what effect you think that could have?

:33:53.:33:57.

I think it puts the onus on Labour to lead the Better Together

:33:57.:34:00.

campaign. If there's the prospect of a Labour

:34:00.:34:03.

Government in Westminster, does that change the dynamic in terms of

:34:03.:34:08.

our people will vote? Potentially. This is not just about

:34:08.:34:12.

fiscal powers. This is also about what is there and better under

:34:12.:34:18.

welfare powers. And that ground is probably better portrayed by the

:34:18.:34:22.

potential of the Labour Government in the UK. But there will not be a

:34:22.:34:26.

Labour Government when this is actually determined, because in two

:34:26.:34:30.

years time, a referendum will be under process.

:34:30.:34:34.

Welfare is the pivotal issue here. Although the referendum will be

:34:34.:34:37.

played out in the backdrop of the Ryder Cup, the Commonwealth Games,

:34:38.:34:41.

food distribution is the fastest- growing bit of the voluntary sector

:34:41.:34:45.

actually feeding people who cannot afford to pay their supermarket

:34:45.:34:48.

bills. That is going to be a critical factor in the run-up to

:34:48.:34:51.

the referendum itself. Thank you.

:34:51.:34:53.

When the Scottish Government launched their referendum

:34:53.:34:56.

consultation in January, the eyes of the world were on Edinburgh. And

:34:56.:34:59.

no one is watching more closely now than the people of Catalonia. Our

:34:59.:35:01.

political correspondent Niall O'Gallacher has been to Barcelona

:35:01.:35:11.
:35:11.:35:19.

This building has become an icon, a symbol known across the world as a

:35:19.:35:24.

modern democracy. It is apres-ski outside the

:35:24.:35:26.

Scottish Parliament building in Holyrood, you could almost be here

:35:27.:35:31.

in Barcelona, but the people of Catalonia's are also deciding

:35:31.:35:33.

whether independence is the best option for the future.

:35:33.:35:38.

As they make that decision, all eyes are on Scotland. One

:35:38.:35:40.

Barcelona-based newspaper has followed every step of the Scottish

:35:41.:35:44.

debate and will watch tomorrow's meeting between David Cameron and

:35:44.:35:47.

Alex Salmond with particular interest.

:35:47.:35:52.

We think that the Scotland example, the agreement to the referendum,

:35:52.:35:58.

for London and Edinburgh, that helps us. It is possible. We think,

:35:58.:36:00.

at this point, that this is difficult.

:36:00.:36:04.

That is because the post-Franco constitution calls upon the Armed

:36:04.:36:08.

Forces to defend the unity of Spain. Despite that, a visitor to

:36:08.:36:11.

Barcelona from another region with strong nationalist ambitions said

:36:11.:36:18.

this was a question for Catalans alone. The main work is ours to do.

:36:18.:36:22.

The future is ours to decide. That is that.

:36:22.:36:26.

The Catalan Government agrees. They have said they will all the

:36:26.:36:29.

referendum after elections in November, but one Scottish observer

:36:29.:36:34.

said this could fall on deaf ears. The Spanish Government has a point

:36:34.:36:36.

of principle has made clear that it will not entertain discussion on a

:36:36.:36:40.

referendum. It considers a referendum to be unconstitutional

:36:40.:36:44.

and it does not propose to permit one to happen. This is very

:36:44.:36:47.

different from the United Kingdom case with the principle of the

:36:47.:36:51.

Scottish Parliament legislated to have a referendum has the next --

:36:51.:36:55.

has been accepted by the UK Government. Transpac referendums in

:36:55.:36:59.

individual parts of Spain are not permitted.

:36:59.:37:03.

You cannot, as convergence in union urging, and yell at the people

:37:03.:37:06.

telling them they can hold a referendum because it is making

:37:06.:37:10.

them a break the law. He must comply with the Basic Law, the

:37:10.:37:13.

Supreme law of all Catalans and Spaniards, which is the Spanish

:37:13.:37:17.

constitution. In the case of Scotland and England, it is

:37:17.:37:23.

different from that Spain and that the Lord has not committed.

:37:23.:37:30.

The Catalan President wants to negotiate, after it is six -- --

:37:30.:37:37.

after, as expected, he went there majority in November. Catalonia's

:37:37.:37:43.

look on at David Cameron's willingness to except a referendum.

:37:43.:37:45.

Scotland has not so different to Catalonia in terms of the economy

:37:45.:37:50.

and population. The editing and is very different from Spain. -- the

:37:50.:37:55.

United Kingdom is very different from Spain. What David Cameron says

:37:55.:37:58.

in Westminster, what the British Government is prepared to do, is

:37:58.:38:02.

radically different from what is said in Madrid and what the Spanish

:38:02.:38:06.

Government is prepared to do in Madrid.

:38:06.:38:09.

From attack time perspective, the Scottish debate seems very

:38:09.:38:13.

gentlemanly, very, derisive, British. With none of the post-

:38:13.:38:18.

Civil War tensions. So at last we have a deal on the Scottish

:38:18.:38:22.

referendum, we have two years to wait before we find out whether it

:38:22.:38:25.

is seen most -- eagerness and nationalists in Barcelona that end

:38:26.:38:28.

up paying homage to the United Kingdom.

:38:28.:38:32.

What will be ripple effect of what is happening here be for the rest

:38:32.:38:37.

of the UK? In power Edinburgh studio, Jim Gallagher, who was

:38:37.:38:42.

heavily involved in the previous Scotland Bill and is now an adviser

:38:42.:38:47.

to Labour. Thank you for coming in. If we look at the other parts of

:38:47.:38:55.

the nick of time and, is what is happening here in Scotland driving

:38:55.:38:57.

past -- driving call for constitutional change in other

:38:57.:39:03.

parts of the UK? After look at Wales, the wells have been

:39:03.:39:05.

adjusting their devolution settlement since they got it and

:39:05.:39:08.

they have not finished yet. You will see some desire therefore

:39:08.:39:13.

perhaps a reformulation of their fiscal system, or Tommy a knock on

:39:13.:39:19.

the lines that Scotland once. Northern Ireland's marches to its

:39:19.:39:23.

own tunes. In some ways, England is the most

:39:23.:39:27.

interesting of all. Indeed, the English question is that the middle

:39:27.:39:33.

of all this. The UK has the most lopsided at a symmetrical

:39:33.:39:38.

territorial constitution of anywhere. We have devolution for

:39:38.:39:44.

15% of the population, 85% of them have I unitary Government. That is

:39:44.:39:50.

one of the constraints on designing the devolution settlement for

:39:50.:39:53.

Scotland and Will Sach Northern Ireland, how did you fit in what

:39:53.:39:59.

happened to England? England, although we see in polls and

:39:59.:40:02.

surveys, there is a strong measure off discontent with Westminster,

:40:02.:40:08.

that does not translate into regionalisation. It does not, it

:40:08.:40:12.

does not translate into a regional political entity. There is an

:40:12.:40:16.

argument that the present UK Government is pursuing, for

:40:16.:40:19.

localism and decentralisation to cities and counties. What you are

:40:19.:40:26.

not seeing is a movement for regional administration, and still

:40:26.:40:31.

less resolve political set-up. That was killed by the vote in the

:40:31.:40:34.

north-east. Let's look at what could be coming

:40:34.:40:37.

out of the Mackay commission, which looks at Westminster voting and

:40:37.:40:41.

public funding. The Mackay commission is not looking at

:40:41.:40:44.

funding, it looks at the West Lothian question. How do you deal

:40:44.:40:48.

with the fact that Scottish and Welsh -- Scottish and Welsh MPs can

:40:48.:40:52.

vote on English issues when they cannot fault on the same issues for

:40:52.:40:57.

Scotland or Wales or Northern Ireland? This is likely to come up

:40:57.:41:03.

with, as it were, a Westminster procedure will fixed for that

:41:03.:41:07.

question, which we will see in one year or so. Nobody is looking at

:41:07.:41:13.

money at the moment. They suppose that money must be

:41:13.:41:16.

what is constantly the elephant in the room in terms of any of these

:41:16.:41:21.

discussions. Off course, and the Scottish devolution issue, as you

:41:21.:41:27.

have heard earlier on, to a principle about taxation. Taxation

:41:27.:41:31.

raised straight into the question of, what degree of equity do you

:41:31.:41:34.

want across the UK? Should be offered the same levels of service

:41:34.:41:39.

game that should be all be able to enjoy the same public services for

:41:39.:41:43.

the same tax, or to the lowest, to some degree, on the resources that

:41:43.:41:49.

are are all on? That are within Scotland or within England almost

:41:49.:41:54.

in one or so on? Finally, let me ask you that a paper written by the

:41:54.:41:58.

Royal Society of Scotland, to which he contributed, just in terms of

:41:58.:42:01.

your role they delayed a commission. This paper says that even

:42:01.:42:05.

proponents of Devo Max acknowledge that it is a policy that will be

:42:05.:42:08.

hard to sell to English voters, integrating its best to a growing

:42:08.:42:12.

sense that devolution allows the Scots to have their cake and eat it.

:42:12.:42:15.

If Labour argues for more powers, you cannot think you can square

:42:15.:42:20.

that circle. The interesting question about how Scotland fits

:42:20.:42:25.

into the UK, assuming that we're not talking about independence, the

:42:25.:42:29.

question is, how many more powers Kenya have without some sort of

:42:29.:42:35.

trade-off in your position in the United Kingdom? -- how many more

:42:35.:42:39.

powers can you have? We have a parliament in Edinburgh and central

:42:39.:42:41.

taxation funding most other public services, that is the central

:42:41.:42:47.

taxation from Westminster, and we also have MPs in Westminster and we

:42:47.:42:52.

have, and we are about to have, some tax powers of her own. How far

:42:52.:42:56.

can you take that without making some adjustment to her

:42:56.:42:59.

representation in Westminster, and how far do you take it without some

:42:59.:43:06.

change to the funding system? Thank you very much.

:43:06.:43:10.

Would you like to take a stab at what subject we will discuss in the

:43:10.:43:20.
:43:20.:43:23.

Our very own Mr Brian Taylor is in his emotional heartland of Dundee.

:43:23.:43:27.

God's own City. A very closed the actual cradle of civilisation,

:43:27.:43:31.

which is Paradise Park. Who has won these that was the

:43:32.:43:38.

agents all have one and all must have prizes. The intriguing thing

:43:38.:43:41.

is that there has been an agreement to settle and pursue the mandate

:43:41.:43:46.

the Scottish Government has. Alex Salmond has the mandate to ask the

:43:46.:43:50.

question about independence, no more, no less. David Cameron has

:43:50.:43:54.

the legal power which is resolved to Westminster on to the devolution

:43:54.:43:59.

Act of 1998. The Prime Minister is lending that power to Holyrood up

:43:59.:44:05.

to end a 2014. That sits Alex Allen's timetable fine. This is

:44:05.:44:08.

providing There is a question purely about independence and not

:44:08.:44:13.

about Devo Max. There is a trade- off. There are two things to this

:44:13.:44:17.

that unimportant. First of all that it makes the referendum will

:44:17.:44:20.

legally watertight. This is significant because it means the

:44:20.:44:24.

referendum is undoubtedly on and cannot be challenged in the court.

:44:24.:44:29.

These two leaders are now agreeing, agreeing the rules and regulations

:44:29.:44:33.

for this referendum. That means implicitly and almost explicitly

:44:33.:44:36.

that they are agreeing to accept and respect the outcome. Whatever

:44:36.:44:42.

that may be. Just casting really far ahead so we

:44:42.:44:46.

can see the much bigger picture, if there is an yes vote, can this be

:44:46.:44:51.

turned around S SNP lose the Holyrood election in 2016?

:44:51.:44:55.

suppose it could, technically, all things are possible. If there is

:44:55.:44:59.

Agius Ford, the people of Scotland are -- if the people of Scotland

:44:59.:45:02.

demonstrate that they want to be independent, it would really take

:45:02.:45:06.

refuge him out of Masha Nations and Machiavellian manoeuvring to

:45:06.:45:11.

prevent that. The significance of David Cameron's endorsement of this

:45:11.:45:15.

tomorrow and of the other members of the United Kingdom coalition of

:45:15.:45:19.

Dawson that model is that they accept that that is the case. They

:45:19.:45:22.

are prepared to put this to the test because they have agreed the

:45:22.:45:26.

rules and rent -- rules and regulations for the referendum and

:45:26.:45:30.

have agreed to go with Alex Salmond to the letter commission with the

:45:30.:45:34.

wording of the question. Both sides are seeing Cobby have at least the

:45:34.:45:37.

way this will happen and we will not do this by a dispute or by I

:45:37.:45:41.

knew little declaration. We're doing this by agreement. That means

:45:41.:45:46.

that they grief. It is important that they respect the outcome. We

:45:46.:45:50.

had the report from Catalonia and from Spain, this assertion -- the

:45:50.:45:53.

Spanish foreign minister is often quoted as saying that Spain and

:45:53.:45:57.

other European countries will take no part whatsoever in the decisions

:45:57.:46:01.

of member states leaving the UK. What we do not quote usually is the

:46:01.:46:04.

second part, saying that it is provided that those two parties

:46:04.:46:08.

have agreed. Tomorrow is that agreement.

:46:08.:46:13.

What do you think is the effect of not having a second question?

:46:13.:46:15.

difficulty with the second question is that it would be relatively

:46:15.:46:19.

nebulous but that there is no political organisation, no party

:46:19.:46:24.

and no Government, referendums are not just to be a plebiscite, they

:46:24.:46:29.

are the people offering an opinion on something been proposed back

:46:29.:46:33.

Government. No Government is backing Devo Max, not Westminster

:46:33.:46:37.

and not the Scottish Government who favour independence. Therefore, the

:46:38.:46:41.

problem with it would be that yes, you could cast around the opinion

:46:41.:46:46.

of the people, but who would be mandated, mandated to act?

:46:46.:46:50.

Referendum on independence produces a mandate for the Scottish

:46:50.:46:53.

Government to negotiate with the UK Government to produce that

:46:53.:46:57.

independence should there be yes vote. On the other hand, produces a

:46:57.:47:07.
:47:07.:47:15.

mandate to continue with the union Politics has always more wide-

:47:15.:47:17.

ranging than the politicians would want.

:47:17.:47:20.

Thank you. You can read more analysis from

:47:20.:47:22.

Brian on his correspondent's page, bbc.co.uk/briantaylor.

:47:22.:47:25.

Political magazine presented by Andrew Neil and Isabel Fraser.


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