16/12/2012 Sunday Politics Scotland


Isabel Fraser with the latest political news, interviews and debate in Scotland.

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It is supposed to be a government department getting Burton moving


again. But its transport policy stuck in neutral? We will ask the


The UK Independence Party are why - - riding a wave of Conservative


And are you a shirker or race driver? We debate whether the --


And we explore the psychology behind David Cameron and Ed


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1947 seconds


In Scotland, we review all the At Turtle all day, tackle the


minimum wage. S Waugh or less in the real terms than it was in 2004.


That is shocking. That deficit reduction means that we have to


deal with our debt. Labour let us at a deficit, the largest in


Bet would be useful to get back to the subject of welfare reform. You


want more means testing. Why? universal system is unsustainable.


With the ageing population it is no longer sustainable. We cannot have


universal benefits. I remember, the interview by Frances Maude talking


about on sustainability. But Hutton report showed that public sector


pension costs will go down as a proportion of GDP. Let get real.


There is a demographic problem through the Western world. Can we


still fought, throughout the Western world, to support that the


ageing population with universal benefits? What do we need means-


testing? Means testing it increases the costs. It lower the rate of


uptake. It costs more to administer more. And it leads to higher rates


of benefit fraud. In the long term it will not cost more. It is not


feel that an MP on a salary of �60,000 per year is claiming the


winter fuel allowance. On that basis you should not get free


health care. You want an American- style safety net just for the poor?


Some of us want a universal welfare state. How are you going to pay for


it? More tax? How do we pay for corporate welfare? We spend


hundreds of billions of pounds and try and, Afghanistan, but there is


no money for the poor, disabled, elderly? For them, we must squeeze


down? It is unsustainable? Gentleman, time up. Thank you very


Good morning. Coming up: the economy, the recession, the


recovery. Why does it feel justly be here before, and the year before


that? We have to do something. We have to introduce the game changed


a. If we don't we will be flatlining. There is our last


programme before Christmas. Time This week saw what the Scottish


Government said was the largest fall in unemployment for years. A


glimmer of good news. We're trying to assess where we are now run what


will come away next year. There are just nine shopping days until


Christmas. The buying frenzy masks of a harsh economic realities many


people faced this year. Single mother Jackie has been saving hard


to pay for the pestered season. -- festive. Rising costs, including


child care, means that money does not go far enough. If they do not


match the cost of living in I don't see the point of tax credits. They


are not helping us. The plans that we have at the moment are changing


all the time. It is difficult to predict how things will materialise.


There are so many changes, so many cuts, it is difficult to tell


anybody exactly how it will affect them personally, which is often


what people want to know. Market lives just outside Dumfries. She


says she feels like a prisoner in her own home. -- market. She's


frustrated by a limited transport services and her area. Taiwan to be


dead. Unless something will let me get out and do the things I want to


do. Who will help me on and off my scooter? What has happened in this


year is that councils have tightened up the criteria for three


services. They have increased their charges for a variety of services.


Given the settlement they have going into next year - a reduced


overall settlement - they have been given �70 million and by anarchic


relation match BT million pounds. - - by my calculation that should be


�80 million. Unemployment figures may be down but that is cold


comfort for this man with a call- centre job having come out of


university. Debt is fine for a short time but I would like to go


into a graduate profession ultimately. But it is very


difficult to find him get on to something. Despite a fall in


unemployment the underlying picture in Scotland is weak. Jobs are


falling. An activity is rising. -- inactivity. Growth will be weak


next year, we forecast just over 1%. Against that background there will


not be much job-creation next here. With those week forecast how can we


get growth back? A radical programme of housebuilding. Rather


late 1960s. -- rather like the. The economy has undergone a structural


shift. We must do something. We must introduce a game changer. If


we do not we will be flatlining. There is some good news for the


oil-rich economy of the north-east. The North Sea is going very


strongly. It is in a mature phase. There is more investment as you can


recover more typical sources. We are into that phase now. Overall


the picture for next year looks I am joined by the youth employment


minister. Do you accept that governments cannot make much


difference to the labour market? certainly accept that it is


difficult for a devolved government. But we do have some good news this


week as your piece rightly articulated. The fall in


unemployment, the largest in four years. The youth employment


statistics are certainly a welcome step in the right direction. 25,000


less young people are seeking work at this time of the Year than this


time last year. What about the overall economic predictions? Where


is the evidence that a full range of powers would make a difference


given the unemployment rate in Ireland? I visited Europe and the


last four May and spoke to representatives -- in the last


fortnight. There unemployment levels are something we should be


striving for. We certainly do need a team changes and I would argue


that the game changes the independence referendum. -- a game


changer. In the draft budget we have announced that a large-scale


employment recruitment incentive, in effect a wage subsidy, could


provide up to 10,000 jobs for young people. So there is much more to be


done and more that we could do it in a parliament with job-creating


Paras. Job-creating powers? What does that mean in practice?


Department that has full control of taxation, welfare, National


Insurance, and an ability to invest in large-scale capital investment


projects. -- a Parliament. things like unemployment loss --


laws, whatever Parliament has control that has to control


important levers? Yes, I would argue that. There are European


countries do much better than the United Kingdom. I would argue that


in Scotland we're punching above await. If there has been a


significant fall in youth unemployment. Do you expected to


continue? I would never one to predict labour market statistics


but we are very focused on the need to get more young people into work.


But we also need to be in this for the long haul. I would argue that


the pre-recession figures were too high. That is why I are believer in


independence. Do you see how people get frustrated? When the totals are


bad you blame Westminster, when there could you say it is the SNP.


John Swinney has welcomed the fall in unemployment in Scotland, the


lowest of all the UK country's. But he also said that we need to do


much more given the fall in employment rates. We need to


understand labour market statistics in the round. Behind the numbers


are real people struggling to find work. Let's look at the effect on


real people of the cutbacks in local services. The council tax


freeze has worked out at just under 100 per ounce the year saved per


household. -- �100. When does the balance that where it would be


money well spent for people to have paid that extra? It is important


that those who are struggling the most right now are not asked to pay


more. You will have heard the SNP government talking about the


importance of the social wage. We asked arriving as hard as we can to


keep money in the pockets of hard- pressed people. These measures are


part of and imperative move. But as a result of your council tax these


people are paying more on alternative services. Council tax


is a comparatively small part of local-government income. We have


protected local government's Shea. Not by enough, according to the


professor, who said you are seriously adrift that you are


serious about shoring up services. We have to live within our means.


Oh we want to change those means but until the people of Scotland


vote yes in a referendum we're at the mercy of the UK Government to


in effect give us our budget, out of pocket money. We'll come back to


the economy just a moment but first Spreading Christmas Shia with a


fall on a number of people out of work. But staff here warned that it


is still tough to get work. It is difficult to get a job with so many


people competing for the same job as you. By we have got to continue


our efforts to boost employment base within Scotland. There is an


extra �300 million for the Scottish Government to spend. There where


tidings of discomfort and war four shots when the Scottish Retail


Consortium said that sales were down 1.2 % leading up his Christmas.


Can the UK credit rating came under With me now is an MP and MEP and an


MSP. Thank you all very much indeed for coming in. Margaret Curran,


which we are you voting in the welfare bill? Labour has said


though we will wait to see the details. We are not comfortable


with a government that gives us �3 billion to well-off people. -- its


�3 billion. Whilst attacking people on maternity allowance and tax


credits. That will not help the economy. We're certainly not


comfortable with that as things stand but we must wait to see the


Quite unique in a more detail? it stands, I am certain we will be


voting against it. They might be persuaded that what they are doing


is wrong and affecting the quality of the lives of people on their


benefits. They are presenting a false argument and saying it is


about taking people who are scrounging and not paying their way,


but these benefits will affect the working people. Tax credits have


been successful and material lot to people and attacking those people


does not help anyone. The people worst affected by those are people


who are in work and are struggling to get by another on the moors then


comes. -- the list in comes. believe that all sectors have to


share the burden of trying to reduce the debt. Do you think that


is what is happening now in? want to make sure there is a fair


share of taking the road of this and already this week, we have seen


worries about the triple A credit rating. Labour say we should have a


Plan B and it all seems to be about borrowing more work. I do not think


that is a credible choice to make at all. You can see across Europe


that more borrowing has meant you are unable to borrow a tall and


inflation goes up. That would hit many householders across our


society. We have made the right choices and have tackled the rich


and they are paying more or under the plans. Be enough? They could


always pay more. We will be cracking down on tax evasion. Right


across the board, we have to ensure that everybody carries their fair


share. The number one problem we have is the huge debt that Labour


left the Hind. Even the credit agencies are saying that the


economy is stagnating. If you lose the credit rating, at the borrowing


costs will go up anyway. We have to tackle the huge deficit we are


currently running. The big challenge for Labour is that they


cannot demonstrate how they would balance the books. When you look at


the imperative for economic growth, do you not think now there has to


be a radical rethink of what the strategy is coming out of


Westminster? It is not all bad news and unemployment is falling and is


much lower than many people predicted that this stage. There


have been 1 million private sector jobs created since 2010. There is


good news in some areas. It is absolutely right that the


imperative as for the government to tackle debt levels. The UK has the


highest debt level of any major Western economy. Labour says, let's


spend more money and accelerate the rate of increase of any debt. There


is no silver dot here. There are a number of reforms that the


government is pressing ahead with and there are supply-side reforms,


but it will take a long time to work out the economic mess of the


last Labour government. The current government is doing a good job


itself of threatening the triple A credit rating itself. Borrowing is


going up as a result of these policies... Hang on, George! We do


not need more right wing supply- side economics. What this economy


crucially needs is a demand let recovery. We are above our heads in


debt as opposed to just our next? We have had this government for two


years and all that has happened is that they have reduced their


forecasts every single time and the economy is shrinking. Scotland is


the ad up in which employment fell the most in the UK last year.


Borrowing is going up because we have so many people claiming


benefits. Supply-side economics is the problem. Do you think Scotland


has not done as well in job- creation as in other parts of the


UK? It is a mixed picture and looking back over the last year, in


some months, Scotland has performed better than the UK. We have some


strengths in the Scottish economy such as All Ireland gas. -- Oil and


Gas. There are still a lot of problems in parts of Scotland and


there is no sign of the Scottish government using the powers they


have to help business. They are imposing more taxes on business.


All that is going to do is make it more difficult for the private


sector to grow our way out of recession. What do you what to do


in government to relieve unemployment that you're not being


allowed to divide the Tories? would like to invest more, if we


could, in trying to advance growth. We still have to make sure that we


balance the books and show a credible plan that we can reduce...


Invest more in what, capital projects? We have announced plans


for capital investment at a youth employment programme. We have the


state funded bank lending scheme which the Liberal Democrats have


announced as well. These are all measures to create and stimulate


growth because one of the fundamental challenges that new


businesses face at the moment is a lack of credit. State backing for


lending and the State Bank we're trying to create should help. These


are the right measures to try to stimulate the economy. We have put


in place the facilities for banks to try to make that happen and we


are working with the private sector to see if they can take on and


invest in these infrastructure projects. That is different from


the state doing it itself. The it businesses are sitting on vast


amounts of money but they do not want to spend it because they seem


to have no confidence. How do you turn that around? There is no


silver bullet. It is the government at a UK level and the Scottish


level up using the powers they have. Setting back the rates are


valuation until 2017 is sending the wrong message. Up with capital


spending, we need to sort out the procurement rules because spending


a lot of money on capital does not inflict domestic spending - it at


nearly helps overseas companies. You have international obligations


which require you to go to the cheapest tender or you are at fault


yourself as the purchaser. You cannot ring-fence where the


contracts ago. You cannot but you can look at things like social


obligations which are permitted under EU rules. If it happens in


other countries, it can have him here. Business a business


confidence issue? It is crucial and that is why a lot of measures of


this government have not worked. On the issue of the shovel already


projects, it seems as if George Osborne has given them what they


want. We need to start working on the ground. The track record of the


SNP Government has not been particularly strong on this and the


one thing you do not do in the middle of the recession is cut the


housing budget by 40%. People have a terrible choice between these two


governments and the need eight different course. Thank you all for


that. Stay tuned for our 2012 President Obama will meet the


families of the genetic it school The body of the nurse who was found


hanged after taking a hoax call up from the -- about the Duchess of


Cambridge. She will be buried in her home village tomorrow.


But have been counted in Egypt following the first round of voting


in the referendum on the constitution which has divided the


country. Supporters of President Mohamed Morsi say that early


indications say the vote will go their way.


It has been an unforgettable 12 months for British sport and


tonight the winner of the BBC Sports personality of the year will


be announced. With so many achievements to choose from, the


short list had to be increased. That is all the news for nowt.


Good afternoon. Up rescuers will bring aboard a damaged bought in


which a man died during storms. It is still adrift off the North Sea


coast. What has been described as a very


complex salvage operation is under way. The ship is drifting without


power about 120 miles from Aberdeen. It was 4:30am on Saturday when a


Mayday call was picked up from the vessel. The rescue operation was


launched including three helicopters been very difficult


weather conditions. One crewman has died and his body is still thought


to be on board the vessel which has been significantly damaged. Because


of the nature of the salvage, the operators are unable to say it when


they will get the ship back into port.


There is a warning Scotland's new police force of will have debts


totalling �100 million. The Scottish Conservatives have raised


concerns about the scale of bedecked. The Scottish government


have said they will be given funds to service the debt.


Three Scots are in contention for the BBC Sports personality of the


Year award tonight. Catherine Grainger, Sir Chris Hoy and Andy


Murray and the running. Now it's a A much quieter day of weather


coming up. Some brightness with the best of the sunshine in it eastern


areas towards the Lothians and the Borders. A few showers in western


areas. Temperatures are on the mild side compared with what we have


been used to. Predominantly light It is that time of year again, Iowa


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1947 seconds


and you look back at the big I don't know why race around me. I


am not that special. -- why race around me. -- why are they surround


me. The Scottish Government has taken opinion from eminent legal


authorities in support of its view that an independent Scotland would


continue in membership of the European Union. But we have not


sought specific legal advice. But as the Edinburgh agreement provides


the exact context we now have the basis from which specific legal


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1947 seconds


This sum I was called a rebel force I think the �545 million resource


budget to �546 million is by definition an increase in funding.


I apologise to the chamber for this I am an expert in tourism. I am the


evidence. I am more and expel than the people you would like me to


It is ridiculous! Do not scratch The idea that Scotland is a land


where that the thing is if the is alive. Someone always pays for it


In the west wing will be later than patchier. -- rain. There will be


snow on a high arc around. There are the potential for a few


Apology for the loss of subtitles for 1947 seconds


flurries or are more will. Who the The picture it but there was Norman


Robinson. Joining me right now are Detective Chief the incident ended


John Carlin in and professor of economics at Caledonian University.


And Professor Tom divine. Welcome to you all. When you look back


where we have reached, how significant is the Edinburgh


agreement? It has practical implications. More important is the


symbolism. The race is on now. But is in no sense in my view a perfect


solution to the great national decision. It demonstrates a great


democratic deficit. The majority of Scottish people as we speak would


favour a for auction. That has not been offered to them. -- a third


auction. It is not good enough for politicians to say it would be too


difficult to frame that question. They are supposed to be servants of


the people. The people are being denied the possibility of that


three part of vote. My sense is that, particularly the Labour Party,


because the Lib Dems are annihilated in the next election,


my belief is that there will be, either in the last year before the


decision, say, 2013 of 2014, the Labour Party will begin to shape


something like evolution maximum. They will make a solemn contract


with the Scottish people that if the UK Government is elected and


the Labour tradition then they will deliver in the same way that they


will have up evolution. That is the speculation that I shouldn't really


make because the future is not my period as everybody knows. But I


sense they will have to be something like that. A young person


at a debate I wasn't bought and recently asked the basic question,


what is going to happen if there is a no vote. I look back to the


collective depression that the country had in 1979, there has to


be some alternative, especially if the opinion polls keep showing that


it has come to be no vote. Within the agreement says that countries


will work together constructively in the best interests of the people


of Scotland. What is that actually worth when we come into it? Where I


work I engage with young people all the time. There heavily politicised


at the moment. There are engaged in the debate. But you earlier piece


indicates their economic would disenfranchised. They cannot get


jobs. The situation with youth unemployment is desperate and will


get worse so I think if we are looking at giving youngsters the


vote and engaging in a debate we need to give them jobs and the


opportunities. That is not happening. Which policies are


making the most impact for you but in alcohol centre stage? Minimum


pricing as a whole population thing. We say, that is not a layer of


problem. Without all I think there is an opportunity to do something


different around that. But I also think that we're at the stage where


there are lots of good things happening. Every time something


feels we think it is the strategy that has failed. That need a new


plan, a new leader. The truth is that most of the failures up


delivery. It needs to be far more about listen to people and


communities. And then listened to what they need in delivering


services to suit. Absolutely right. There is too much short-termism.


But the other thing, going back to the alcohol aspect, there was a


terrible scourge, much greater than we had today, in 19th century


cities. Even interventions by charities and the Church had


minimal effect. What had the effect was a steep increase in the tax on


alcohol. We saw considerable short- term dramatic fall in consumption.


The government must press hard along these lines. Accepting what


John says, and that the delivery does not need to change day today,


if we look at their beck pictures, a fundamental shift, basically, and


the whole economic structure, the prediction been that we will not go


back to growth, what it needs is a big response, do you think that it


response could or should be? That is a difficult question. It is not


fair! A couple of the issues in New Brighton, perhaps I'm being a bit


flippant at this time of the year, looking at the unemployment figures,


things are changing in terms of structural change. If we look at


part-time employment those jobs are predominantly going to men. That is


very different from before. The piece that you had about Prince


Charles to in the weather forecast, maybe that is his second job.


Because we're finding that men are taking on second jobs. So the part-


time jobs are not the only jobs, their second jobs. That is a


fundamental shift in terms of what is happening in their households.


Where a woman in that household economy? A further economic system


does not recognise why and where men have been two jobs, and we have


that leaves woman, we need a fundamental rethink about the best


What is the effect of women becoming increasingly economic


disenfranchised? We have just been speaking about gender equality. How


do you define what the role of a man is? You're talking about the


notion of equality but they are given it a notion of what is


expected of them and that comes off of television and the Internet and


pornography, what they think life is. They conform to that and may


find life very different -- difficult. We can reduce gang


violence but we cannot get these young people jobs. It has a serious


impact an hour worked for next year is redemption. We had one young


gang who work for six months and did a fantastic job and then at the


end of it they were some pin a job and then found out he had four


previous convictions and would not take him on. These were previous


convictions for when he was 17 and 18. He is effectively sent down for


the rest of his life of up -- his life. He or redemption has a nice


ring to it? Especially at this time of year but I think the outlook is


not good. The forecasters are telling us that this thing is


virtually endless. John is at the sharp end and I am not but what I


fear is that thinking back to the 1930s in particular, the emergence


of young males who have difficulties with their identities


for the reasons he has given. It is the structural under class. Be much


bigger one and a generation will pull even without employment. There


is a brighter side as well. If we have been through this in the 1970s,


there were much bigger difficulties. The Scottish economy has


revolutionised itself over the last 30 years and the employment rate is


slightly higher here than it is in England. It is nothing to be proud


of because there is a lot of under- employment but the situation would


be much worse if the old dinosaurs of the economy were still in place.


The economy is much more balanced now. The reason why this happened,


and it is always blamed on Thatcher, is that it had been waiting to


happen for 30 or 40 years before. The result is that there was horror


in the 1980s and 1990s but the result of that is we now have a


much more balanced economic system than we had before. It is important


that we stuck to think outside of the box because this spring will be


long term. We have 10 seconds, what is coming down the road? More


Political magazine presented by Andrew Neil and Isabel Fraser.

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