12/01/2014 Sunday Politics Scotland


12/01/2014

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of political pundits, Helen Lewis, Jan and Ganesh and Nick Watt. They

:01:39.:01:44.

will be tweeting faster than France or long scoots through Paris. Nick

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Clegg sticks to his New Year resolution to sock it to the Tories,

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the is how he described Tory plans for another 12 billion of cuts on

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welfare after the next election. You cannot say, as the Conservatives

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are, that we are all in it together and then say that the welfare will

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not make any additional contributions from their taxes if

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there is a Conservative government after 2015 in the ongoing effort to

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balance the books. We are not even going to ask that very wealthy

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people who have retired who have benefits, paid for by the

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hard-pressed taxpayers, will make a sacrifice. The Conservatives appear

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to be saying only the working age pork will be asked to make

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additional sacrifices to fill the remaining buckle in the public

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finances. Nick Legg eating up on the Tories

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a, happens almost every day. I understand it is called aggressive

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differentiation. Will it work for them? It has not for the past two

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years. This began around the time of the AV referendum campaign, that is

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what poisoned the relations between the parties. They have been trying

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to differentiation since then, they are still at barely 10% in the

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polls, Nick Clegg's personal ratings are horrendous, so I doubt they will

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do much before the next election. It is interesting it has been combined

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with aggressive flirtation with Ed Balls and the Labour Party. There

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was always going to be some sort of rapprochement between them and the

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Labour Party, it is in the Labour Party's interests, and it is intent

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macro's interests, not to be defined as somebody who can only do deals

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with the centre-right. A colleague of yours, Helen, told me there was

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more talk behind closed doors in the Labour Party high command, they have

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to think about winning the election in terms of being the largest party,

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but not necessarily an overall majority. There is a feeling it was

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foolish before the last election not to have any thought about what a

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coalition might be, but the language has changed. Ed Miliband had said, I

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cannot deal with this man, but now, I have to be prismatic, it is about

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principles. Even Ed Balls. Nick Clegg had specifically said that Ed

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Balls was the man in politics that he hated. He said that was just a

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joke. Of course, it is about principles, not people! When Ed

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Balls said those nice things about Nick Clegg, he said, I understood

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the need to get a credible deficit reduction programme, although he

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said Nick Clegg went too far. The thing about Nick Clegg, he feels

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liberated, he bears the wounds from the early days of the coalition, and

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maybe those winds will haunt him all the way to the general election. But

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he feels liberated, he says, we will be the restraining influence on both

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the Conservatives, who cannot insure that the recovery is fair, and the

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Labour Party, that do not have economic red ability. He feels

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relaxed, and that is why he is attacking the Tories and appearing

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pretty relaxed. He could also be falling into a trap. The Tories

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think what they suggesting on welfare cuts is possible. The more

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he attacks it, the more Tories will say, if you gave us an overall

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majority, he is the one it. He keeps taking these ostensibly on popular

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positions and it only makes sense when you talk to them behind the

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scenes, they are going after a tiny slice of the electorate, 20%, who

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are open to the idea of voting Lib Dem, and their views are a bit more

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left liberal than the bulk of the public. There is a perverse logic in

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them aggressively targeting that section of voters. In the end, ten

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macro's problem, if you do not like what this coalition has been doing,

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you will not vote for somebody who was part of it, you will vote for

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the Labour Party. The Tories are too nasty, Labour are to spendthrift,

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Lib Dem, a quarter of their vote has gone to Labour, and that is what

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could hand the largest party to Labour. That small number of voters,

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soft Tory voters, the problem for the Liberal Democrats is, if you

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fight, as they did, three general elections to the left of the Labour

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Party, and at the end of the third, you find yourself in Colour Vision

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with the Conservatives, you have a problem.

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Chris Grayling is a busy man, he has had to deal with aid riot at HM

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Prison Oakwood, barristers on strike and unhappy probation officers

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taking industrial action. Prison works. It ensures that we are

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protected from murderers, muggers and rapists. It makes many who are

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tempted to commit crime think twice. Traditional Tory policy on criminal

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justice and prisons has been tough talking and tough dealing. Not only

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have they tended to think what they are offering is right, but have had

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the feeling, you thinking what they thinking. But nearly two decades

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after Michael Howard's message, his party, in Colour Vision government,

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is finding prison has to work like everything else within today's

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financial realities. The Justice Secretary for two years after the

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election had previous in this field. Ken Clarke. Early on, he signalled a

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change of direction. Just binding up more and more people for longer

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without actively seeking to change them is, in my opinion, what you

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would expect of Victorian England. The key to keeping people out of

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prison now, it seems, is giving them in a job, on release. Ironically,

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Ken Clarke was released from his job 15 months ago and replaced by Chris

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Grayling. But here, within HM Prison Liverpool, Timpson has been working

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since 2009 with chosen offenders to offer training and the chance of a

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job. Before you ask, they do not teach them keep cutting in a

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category B prison. The Academy is deliberately meant to look like a

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company store, not a prison. It helps. You forget where you are at

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times, it feels weird, going back to a wing at the end of the day. It is

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different. A different atmosphere. That is why people like it. Timpson

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have six academies in prisons, training prisoners inside, and

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outside they offer jobs to ex-offenders, who make up 8% of

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their staff. It has been hard work persuading some governors that such

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cooperation can work. I have seen a dramatic change positively, working

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with prisoners, particularly in the last five years. They understand now

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what business's expectation is. Timpson do not just employ

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offenders, but as one ex-prisoner released in February and now

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managing his own store says, the point is many others will not employ

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offenders at all. From what I have experienced, on one hand, you have

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somebody with a criminal conviction, on the other, somebody who does not

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have one, so it is a case of favouring those who have a clean

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record. Anybody with a criminal conviction is passed to one side and

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overlooked. That, amongst myriad other changes to prison and how we

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deal with prisoners, is on the desk of the man at the top. Ever since

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Chris Grayling became Secretary of State for Justice, he has wanted to

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signal a change of direction of policy, and he is in a hurry to make

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radical reforms across the board, from size and types of prisons to

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probation services, reoffending rates, legal aid services, and there

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has been opposition to that from groups who do not agree with him.

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But what might actually shackle him is none of that. It is the fact that

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he is in government with a party that does not always agree with him,

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he has to abide by the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights,

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and in those famous words, there is no money left. We would like to go

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further and faster. I would like him too, but we are where we are. If the

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Liberal Democrats want to be wiped out at the next election based on

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what they believe, that is fair enough. We accept there has to be

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savings, but there are areas where we feel that there is ideological

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driven policy-making going on, and privatising may not save any money

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at all, and so does not make any sense. The question is, we'll all of

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that means some of Chris Grayling's reforms need closer inspection?

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Chris Grayling joins me now. Welcome. We have a lot to cover. If

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you get your way, your own personal way, will be next Tory manifesto

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promise to withdraw from the European Convention of human

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rights? It will contain a promise for radical changes. We have to

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curtail the role of the European court here, replace our human rights

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act from the late 1990s, make our Supreme Court our Supreme Court,

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they can be no question of decisions over riding it elsewhere, and we

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have to have a situation where our laws contain a balance of rights and

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responsibilities. People talk about knowing their rights, but they do

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not accept they have responsible it is. This is what you said last

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September, I want to see our Supreme Court being supreme again... That is

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clear, but let's be honest, the Supreme Court cannot be supreme as

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long as its decisions can be referred to the European Court in

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Strasbourg. There is clearly an issue, that was raised recency --

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recently. We have been working on a detailed reform plan, we will

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publish that in the not too distant future. What we will set out is a

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direction of travel for a new Conservative government that will

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mean wholesale change in this area. You already tried to reform the

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European Court, who had this declaration in 2012, do you accept

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that the reform is off the table? There is still a process of reform,

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but it is not going fast enough and not delivering the kind of change we

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need. That is why we will bring forward a package that for the

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different from that and will set a different direction of travel. We

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are clear across the coalition, we have a different view from our

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colleagues. You cannot be half pregnant on this, either our

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decisions from our Supreme Court are subject to the European Cup or not,

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in which case, we are not part of the European court. I hope you will

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see from our proposals we have come up with a sensible strategy that

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deals with this issue once and for all. Can we be part of the

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Strasbourg court and yet our Supreme Court be supreme? That is by point,

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we have to curtail the role of the court in the UK. I am clear that is

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what we will seek to do. It is what we will do for this country. But

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how? I am not going to announce the package of policies today, but we

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will go into the next election with a clear strategy that will curtail

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the role of the European Court of Human Rights in the UK. The

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decisions have to be taken in Parliament in this country. Are you

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sure that you have got your own side on this? Look at what the Attorney

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General says. I would be asking Strasberg a

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different question to that. If the best in class, he is saying is

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enough is enough, actually somebody in Strasberg should be asking if

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this has gone the way it should have done. I would love to see wholesale

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reform in the court tomorrow, I'm not sure it is going to happen which

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is why we are going to the election with a clear plan for this country.

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Would you want that to be a red line in any coalition agreement? My

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mission is to win the next election with a majority. But you have to say

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where your red lines would be. We have been very clear it is an area

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where we don't agree as parties, but in my view the public in this

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country are overwhelmingly behind the Conservative party. 95

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Conservative MPs have written to the Prime Minister, demanding he gives

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the House of Commons the authority to veto any aspect of European Union

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law. Are you one of the people who wanted to sign that letter but you

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couldn't because you are minister? I haven't been asked to sign the

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letter. We need a red card system for European law. I'm not convinced

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my colleagues... I don't think it is realistic to have a situation where

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one parliament can veto laws across the European Union. I understand the

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concerns of my colleagues, but when we set out to renegotiate our

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membership, we have got to deliver renegotiation and deliver a system

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which is viable, and I'm not convinced we can have a situation

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where one Parliament can prevent laws across the whole European

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Union. So you wouldn't have signed this letter? I'm not sure it is the

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right approach. I support the system I just talked about. Iain Duncan

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Smith has suggested EU migrants coming to work in this country

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should have to wait for two years before they qualify for welfare

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benefits, do you agree? Yes, I think there should be an assumption that

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before you can move from one country to another, before you can start to

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take back from that country's social welfare system, you should have made

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a contribution to it. I spent two and a half years working in Brussels

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trying to get the European Commission to accept the need for

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change. There is a groundswell of opinion out there which is behind

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Iain Duncan Smith in what he is saying. I think we should push for a

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clear system that says people should be able to move from one country to

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get a job, but to move to another country to live off the state is not

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acceptable. You are planning a new 2000 capacity mega prison and other

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smaller presence which will be run by private firms. After what has

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happened with G4S, why would you do that? No decision has been made

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about whether it will be public or private. What do you think it will

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be? I'm not sure yet. There is no clear correlation over public and

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private prisons and whether there are problems or otherwise. Oakwood

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is in its early stages, it has had teething problems at the start, but

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the rate of disturbance there is only typical for an average prison

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of its category. If you take an example of Parc prison in Wales, a

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big private run prison, run by G4S, when it was first launched under the

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last government it had teething problems of the same kind as Oakwood

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and is now regarded as one of the best performing prisons. Why would

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you give it to a private company then? We have only just got planning

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permission for the so we will not be thinking about this for another few

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years. Some of the companies who run prisons are under investigation with

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dreadful track records. In the case of G4S, what we have experienced is

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acceptable and they have not been able to go ahead with a number of

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contracts they might have otherwise got. They are having to prove to the

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Government they are fit to win contracts from the Government again.

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They are having to pay compensation to the Government and the taxpayer.

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What has happened is unacceptable. So why would you give them a 2000

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capacity mega prison? Or anyone like them? It cannot be said that every

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private company is bad. In addition to problems at Oakwood, you are

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quite unique now in your position that you have managed to get the

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barristers out on strike the first time since history began. What

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happens if the bar refuses to do work at your new rates of legal aid

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and the courts grind to a halt? I don't believe that will happen. When

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the barristers came out on strike, three quarters of Crown Courts were

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operating normally, 95% of magistrates courts were operating

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normally. We are having to take difficult decisions across

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government, I have no desire to cut back lately but we are spending over

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?2 billion on legal aid at the back lately but we are spending over

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moment at a time when budgets are becoming tougher. You issued

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misleading figures about criminal barristers, you said that 25% of

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them earn over ?100,000 per year but that is their turnover, including

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VAT. 33% of that money goes on their expenses, they have to pay for their

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own pensions and insurance. People are not getting wealthy out of doing

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this work. I don't publish figures, our statisticians do, with caveats

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in place explaining the situation. Where you have high-cost cases,

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where we have taken the most difficult decisions, we have tried

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hard in taking difficult decisions to focus the impact higher up the

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income scale. But do you accept their take-home pay is not 100,000?

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I accept they have to take out other costs, although some things like

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travelling to the court, you and I and everyone else has to pay for

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travelling to work. That is net of VAT. We have had a variety of

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figures published, some are and some are not. Let's be clear, the gross

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figures for fees from legal payments include 20% VAT. On a week when even

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a cabinet minister can be fitted up by the police, don't we all need

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well-financed legal aid? There is no chance that as a result

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well-financed legal aid? There is no changes people will end up in court

:22:41.:22:52.

unable to defend themselves. We have said in exceptional circumstances,

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if you haven't got any money to pay, we will support you, but there is no

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question of anyone ended up in court, facing a criminal charge,

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where they haven't got a lawyer to defend them. Let's look at how so

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many dangerous criminals have managed to avoid jail. Here are the

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figures for 2012. Half the people for sexual assault found guilty, not

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jailed. I thought you were meant to be tough on crime? Those figures

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predate my time, but since 2010 the number of those people going to jail

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has been increasing steadily. If you put the figures for 2010 on there,

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you would see a significant change. We will never be in a position where

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everybody who commits violence will end up in jail. The courts will

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often decided to his more appropriate to give a community

:23:53.:23:56.

sentence, but the trend is towards longer sentences and more people

:23:57.:24:01.

going to jail. That maybe but it is even quite hard to get sent to jail

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if you do these things a lot, again and again. In 2012 one criminal

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avoided being sent to jail despite having more than 300 offences to his

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name. 36,000 avoided going to jail despite 15 previous offences. That

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is why we are taking steps to toughen up the system. Last autumn

:24:28.:24:33.

we scrapped repeat cautions. You could find people getting dozens. As

:24:34.:24:38.

of last autumn, we have scrapped repeat cautions. If you commit the

:24:39.:24:41.

same offence twice within a two-year repeat cautions. If you commit the

:24:42.:24:46.

period you will go to court. You still might end up not going to

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jail. More and more people are going to jail. I cannot just magic another

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34,000 prison places. You haven't got room to put bad people in jail?

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The courts will take the decisions, and it is for them to take the

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decisions and not me, that two men in a bar fight do not merit a jail

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sentence. These figures contain a huge amount of offences from the

:25:17.:25:21.

most minor of offences to the most despicable. Something is wrong if

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you can commit 300 offences and still not end up in jail. That's

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right, and we are taking steps so this cannot happen any more. Nick

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Clegg said this morning you are going to make 12 billion of welfare

:25:39.:25:46.

cuts on the back of this, he is right, isn't he? People on the

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lowest incomes are often not paying tax at all, the rich... But these

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cuts will fall disproportionately on average earners, correct? Let's look

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at the proposal to limit housing benefit for under 25s. Until today,

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after people have left school or college, the live for a time with

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their parents. For some, that is not possible and we will have to take

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that into account, but we have said there is a strong case for saying

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you will not get housing benefit until you are some years down the

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road and have properly established yourselves in work. And by

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definition these people are on lower than average salaries. Give me a

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case in which those on the higher tax band will contribute to the

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cuts. We have already put in place tax changes so that the highest tax

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rate is already higher than it was in every year of the last

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government. The amount of tax... There is no more expected of the

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rich. We will clearly look at future policy and work out how best to

:27:07.:27:10.

distribute the tax burden in this country and it is not for me to

:27:11.:27:15.

second-guess George Osborne's future plans, but we need to look at for

:27:16.:27:21.

example housing benefit for the under 25s. Is it right for those who

:27:22.:27:27.

are not working for the state to provide accommodation for them?

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Thank you for being with us. All three major parties at

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Westminster agree there's an urgent need to build more homes for

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Britain's growing population. But how they get built, and where, looks

:27:39.:27:41.

set to become a major battle ground in the run-up to the next general

:27:42.:27:43.

election. Although 16% more house-builds were

:27:44.:27:46.

started in 2012/13 than the previous year, the number actually completed

:27:47.:27:49.

fell by 8% - the lowest level in peacetime since 1920. The Office for

:27:50.:27:56.

National Statistics estimates that between now and 2021 we should

:27:57.:27:59.

expect 220,000 new households to be created every year. At his party's

:28:00.:28:06.

conference last autumn, Ed Miliband promised a Labour government would

:28:07.:28:13.

massively increase house-building. I will have a clear aim but by the end

:28:14.:28:18.

of the parliament, Britain will be building 200,000 homes per year,

:28:19.:28:23.

more than at any time for a generation. That is how we make

:28:24.:28:28.

Britain better than this. The Labour leader also says he'd give urban

:28:29.:28:31.

councils a "right to grow" so rural neighbours can't block expansion and

:28:32.:28:34.

force developers with unused land to use it or lose it. The Government

:28:35.:28:38.

has been pursuing its own ideas, including loan guarantees for

:28:39.:28:41.

developers and a new homes bonus to boost new house-building. But David

:28:42.:28:45.

Cameron could have trouble keeping his supporters on side - this week

:28:46.:28:48.

the senior backbencher Nadhim Zahawi criticised planning reforms for

:28:49.:28:50.

causing "physical harm" to the countryside. Nick Clegg meanwhile

:28:51.:28:57.

prefers a radical solution - brand new garden cities in the south east

:28:58.:29:12.

of England. In a speech tomorrow, Labour's shadow housing minister

:29:13.:29:15.

Emma Reynolds will give more details of how Labour would boost

:29:16.:29:17.

house-building, and she joins me now. It is not the politicians to

:29:18.:29:22.

blame, it is the lack of house-builders? We want a vibrant

:29:23.:29:27.

building industry, and at the moment that industry is dominated by big

:29:28.:29:33.

house-builders. I want to see a more diverse and competitive industry,

:29:34.:29:36.

where self build plays a greater role. In France over 60% of new

:29:37.:29:44.

homes are built by self builders, but small builders build more homes

:29:45.:29:49.

as well. 25 years ago they were building two thirds of new homes,

:29:50.:29:53.

now they are not building even a third of new homes. That's because

:29:54.:29:57.

land policies have been so restrictive that it is only the big

:29:58.:30:00.

companies who can afford to buy the land, so little land is being

:30:01.:30:05.

released for house building. I agree, there are some fundamental

:30:06.:30:10.

structural problems with the land market and that is why we have said

:30:11.:30:13.

there doesn't just need to be tinkering around the edges, there

:30:14.:30:17.

needs to be real reforms to make sure that small builders and self

:30:18.:30:22.

build and custom-built have access to land. They are saying they have

:30:23.:30:27.

problems with access to land and finance. At the end of the day it

:30:28.:30:33.

will not be self, small builders who reach your target, it will be big

:30:34.:30:39.

builders. I think it is pretty shameful that in Western Europe the

:30:40.:30:43.

new houses built in the UK are smaller than our neighbours. But

:30:44.:30:52.

isn't not the land problem? France is 2.8 times bigger in land mass and

:30:53.:30:56.

we are and that is not a problem for them. There is a perception we are

:30:57.:31:04.

going to build on the countryside, but not even 10% is on the

:31:05.:31:10.

countryside. There is enough for us to have our golf courses. There is

:31:11.:31:18.

enough other land for us to build on that is not golf courses. The

:31:19.:31:22.

planning minister has said he wants to build our National Parks, I am

:31:23.:31:26.

not suggesting that. The single biggest land border is the public

:31:27.:31:33.

sector. It is not. There are great opportunities for releasing public

:31:34.:31:37.

land, that is why I have been asking the government, they say they are

:31:38.:31:41.

going to release and of public land for tens of thousands of new homes

:31:42.:31:45.

to be built, but they say they are not monitoring how many houses are

:31:46.:31:50.

being built on the site. When your leader says to landowners, housing

:31:51.:31:57.

development owners, either use the land or lose it, in what way will

:31:58.:32:03.

they lose it? Will you confiscated? This is about strengthening the hand

:32:04.:32:08.

of local authorities, and they say to us that in some cases,

:32:09.:32:13.

house-builders are sitting on land. In those cases, we would give the

:32:14.:32:17.

power to local authorities to escalate fees. This would be the

:32:18.:32:23.

compulsory purchase orders, a matter of last resort, and you would hope

:32:24.:32:28.

that by strengthening the hand of local authorities, you could get the

:32:29.:32:35.

house-builders to start building the homes that people want. Would you

:32:36.:32:37.

compulsory purchase it? We would compulsory purchase it? We would

:32:38.:32:43.

give the local authority as a last resort, after escalating the fees,

:32:44.:32:49.

the possibility and flexible it is to use the compulsory purchase

:32:50.:32:52.

orders to sell the land on to a house builder who wants to build

:32:53.:32:53.

orders to sell the land on to a houses that we need. Can you name

:32:54.:32:58.

one report that has come back in recent years that shows that

:32:59.:33:01.

hoarding of land by house-builders is a major problem? The IMF, the

:33:02.:33:07.

Conservative mayor of London and the Local Government Association are

:33:08.:33:09.

telling us that there is a problem with land hoarding. Therefore, we

:33:10.:33:14.

have said, where there is land with planning permission, and if plots

:33:15.:33:19.

are being sat on... Boris Johnson says there are 180,000 plots in

:33:20.:33:24.

London being sat on. We need to make sure the house-builders are building

:33:25.:33:32.

the homes that young families need. They get planning permission and

:33:33.:33:35.

sell it on to the developer. There is a whole degree of complicity, but

:33:36.:33:38.

there is another problem before that. That is around transparency

:33:39.:33:44.

about land options. There is agricultural land that

:33:45.:33:47.

house-builders have land options on, and we do not know where that is.

:33:48.:33:54.

Where there is a need for housing, and the biggest demand is in the

:33:55.:34:00.

south-east of England, that is where many local authorities are most

:34:01.:34:05.

reluctant to do it, will you in central government

:34:06.:43:36.

reluctant to do it, will you in to the London exchequer. I do not

:43:37.:43:38.

think anybody seriously believe George Osborne would have any

:43:39.:43:43.

intention of handing it back to Scotland to finance the childcare

:43:44.:43:50.

programme. You will maintain free personal care and prescriptions,

:43:51.:43:55.

increase tax credits, these are a few of the things you have

:43:56.:43:57.

promised, the money will have to go a long way? Be ?100 million as an

:43:58.:44:05.

estimate of the initial costs of childcare which is covered by the

:44:06.:44:09.

other changes we make in the White Paper. You seem to suggest there is

:44:10.:44:15.

a long delay in these matters. Changes in the female participation

:44:16.:44:18.

in the labour market can occur quickly. Over the last year there

:44:19.:44:28.

has been a 3.5% rise. These changes can take place very quickly but our

:44:29.:44:34.

point is that we will only get to that level of participation in the

:44:35.:44:38.

Labour Party, which Sweden has already achieved, if we have the

:44:39.:44:44.

childcare policies to back it up. This transformation we talk about in

:44:45.:44:49.

an independent Scotland would keep that environment. It is a

:44:50.:44:54.

tremendously positive discussion to have about the economic gain of

:44:55.:45:00.

progressive policies. It is in terms of how you reach it with finance. If

:45:01.:45:05.

the number of women working rose by 2% we would see a rise of ?200

:45:06.:45:11.

million in income tax receipts, what salary is that based on? That model

:45:12.:45:18.

talks about the benefits to the economy but you will also find in

:45:19.:45:22.

the paper published today that for an average wage then the benefit in

:45:23.:45:28.

terms not just of income tax but the range of taxes people in employment

:45:29.:45:35.

peak, is very substantial indeed, about ?7,000. That is income tax,

:45:36.:45:43.

national insurance, tax macro -- VAT, all the things people who are

:45:44.:45:50.

not work not pay. If you take into account part-time as well as

:45:51.:45:53.

full-time working the average gross salary falls to somewhere in the

:45:54.:45:58.

region of ?17,000. There is a shortfall question --? . Their

:45:59.:46:09.

quality in the Scottish economy works through a 6% charge. You are

:46:10.:46:19.

basing that on an average wage of ?26,000, many do not earn that. Let

:46:20.:46:25.

me complete the sentence. The first figure, the ?700 million we

:46:26.:46:31.

published that paper today so that everyone can read and understand.

:46:32.:46:35.

The second is an illustration that people don't just pay income tax but

:46:36.:46:39.

national insurance and the range of other things. The ?700 million come

:46:40.:46:46.

from the equilibria model of the Scottish economy. That is what

:46:47.:46:51.

happens. With evidence for the last year, not a crystal ball or nickel

:46:52.:46:56.

and be a model but what has actually happened in the Scottish economy,

:46:57.:47:03.

60,000 more women are working, the vast majority of these extra jobs

:47:04.:47:07.

are full-time, these changes can take place in a short period of

:47:08.:47:12.

time. As soon as people are working they start paying tax, everybody

:47:13.:47:17.

knows that. To reach that 700 million figure 104,000 extra women

:47:18.:47:23.

would need to join the workforce, we did these jobs? 60,000 women have

:47:24.:47:29.

joined the workforce, are now working from the year to October

:47:30.:47:37.

last year. Which jobs well the game? 40 start, we showed the full extent

:47:38.:47:44.

of the childcare policies, 30,000 people, women and workers will be

:47:45.:47:50.

required to fully extend that policy but there is also the general effect

:47:51.:47:54.

through the economy of having that extra participation. If 60,000 more

:47:55.:48:00.

women are working in a year, in employment, not just joining the

:48:01.:48:04.

labour force, it is not unreasonable to suggest that over the period of

:48:05.:48:09.

five years we will have 100,000. 60,000 in void in one single view

:48:10.:48:14.

has already happened so 100,000 good be done in five years. The second

:48:15.:48:21.

part of the calculation published today is equally important. It is

:48:22.:48:24.

now beyond doubt that if Scotland has its own exchequer we get the

:48:25.:48:29.

benefits of that economic boost. The problem now, under devilish and that

:48:30.:48:38.

fixed Budget arrangement, you cannot finance such a policy which is why

:48:39.:48:41.

the Labour Party ended up with such a political disaster voting against

:48:42.:48:48.

school meals. That is the difference between independence on the one hand

:48:49.:48:54.

and revolution on the other. We have academics in support of the union

:48:55.:48:59.

today. The say you cannot keep charging students from elsewhere in

:49:00.:49:03.

the UK who keep studying here in the event of independence. Do you have

:49:04.:49:09.

legal advice on this? This was set out in page 200 of the White Paper.

:49:10.:49:18.

Everything in that is based on the advice we receive. Universities

:49:19.:49:20.

Scotland published last April from Anderson Strathearn how you could go

:49:21.:49:29.

around this providing an objective justification for the policy.

:49:30.:49:32.

Everything in the White Paper is consistent with the advice we

:49:33.:49:37.

received. We have advice from an independent body and it seems

:49:38.:49:41.

strange that the better together campaign were not aware of that or

:49:42.:49:48.

did not want to mention it. Just to be clear, the River President as

:49:49.:49:51.

regards legal advice and the European Union, you have legal

:49:52.:49:57.

advice on this specific issue? You do not confirm legal advice or the

:49:58.:50:04.

existence of legal advice. Why is this issue different? Can I just

:50:05.:50:09.

point out, you do not confirm the detail of legal advice or the

:50:10.:50:13.

existence of legal advice but what you can say is that the White Paper

:50:14.:50:18.

is consistent with any advice we received. That is what all

:50:19.:50:22.

governments see. I am also pointing out it is already published from

:50:23.:50:28.

universities Scotland advice that was published last year which sets

:50:29.:50:32.

out resident requirement which could be done. The White Paper examines

:50:33.:50:40.

this in page 200. That is the advantage of having published the

:50:41.:50:44.

White Paper on independence. Very many thousands of people in Scotland

:50:45.:50:48.

have taken the opportunity of reading it. Perhaps some of the

:50:49.:50:54.

Better Together campaign might do that themselves. You've campaigned

:50:55.:51:06.

for this issue but quite some time. I congratulate the Scottish

:51:07.:51:08.

Government on what they've achieved so far. I do, and I welcome what

:51:09.:51:13.

they've done this week will stop Alex Salmond and I have not always

:51:14.:51:18.

seen eye to eye on this issue and I pleased that he is changed his mind.

:51:19.:51:22.

Often, politicians get criticised when they conduct this kind of

:51:23.:51:28.

change, but this is him making the right decision, so I want to thank

:51:29.:51:30.

him for the extra childcare we will see. Secondly, there has been a big

:51:31.:51:36.

focus on getting people back to work will stop the reason we want people

:51:37.:51:41.

to do this is to give people the best start in life. Experts have

:51:42.:51:47.

told us that if you can invest before the age of three in a child's

:51:48.:51:51.

development, you can change their life chances for the rest of their

:51:52.:51:58.

life. To extend this to more children as the government wants to

:51:59.:52:01.

do, they say they need independence because they need the revenue

:52:02.:52:05.

generated from taxation will stop a point out in this paper today that

:52:06.:52:10.

under the act, women going into the labour market, the taxation would

:52:11.:52:14.

not bow to them. 80% would go to Westminster. I welcome the detail of

:52:15.:52:21.

what has been said today will stop it is a case for investing in

:52:22.:52:28.

childcare and education. He set out the economics of spend to save and

:52:29.:52:32.

that is something I welcome in this area. Actually, Scotland is lagging

:52:33.:52:42.

behind England. He said it is lagging behind because he does not

:52:43.:52:46.

have the finances to invest. Where will the money come from? It is not

:52:47.:52:54.

about power, it is about money. That is why England is ahead with

:52:55.:52:58.

two-year-old and three and four-year-olds. Alex Salmond has the

:52:59.:53:04.

money, he has the investment he could make, but he has fallen

:53:05.:53:11.

behind. So he has ?700 million that he is secreting somewhere? He is

:53:12.:53:17.

saying the rest of the UK is travelling in a different direction

:53:18.:53:22.

to Scotland. That is not a dividing line for the independence movement

:53:23.:53:25.

though. We are travelling in the same direction. I actually think all

:53:26.:53:30.

parties will be arguing for more childcare at the next action. If

:53:31.:53:35.

that was not the case, you might have an didn't, but he doesn't. We

:53:36.:53:41.

can all advance further. There is not a dividing line for

:53:42.:53:48.

independence. We've actually invested more. Look at the evidence.

:53:49.:53:59.

We don't agree with Lord Osborne 's approach -- George Osborne 's

:54:00.:54:06.

approach. What we are are doing is the evidence so far is that, even in

:54:07.:54:09.

top times, the Coalition Government has investigated -- has invested in

:54:10.:54:16.

childcare. The evidence in Scotland is that it is lagging behind. We are

:54:17.:54:23.

travelling in the same direction and that is a good ring. But in terms of

:54:24.:54:29.

welfare reform generally, would you support more? I think Nick Clegg has

:54:30.:54:36.

been clear on this. If you are going to more expenditure, we should start

:54:37.:54:42.

at the top, not the bottom. We need to get the deficit under control and

:54:43.:54:47.

we are getting big progress. So the benefit cuts have gone as far as

:54:48.:54:51.

they should, as far you hope concerned? There will be more

:54:52.:54:58.

changes, but you should start at the top, not the bottom. What with the

:54:59.:55:05.

bedroom tax doing? Well, all the parties are in favour of change, but

:55:06.:55:12.

when you do introduce reforms like this, you need to do it with actual

:55:13.:55:16.

care and make sure you got the proper mitigation measures in place.

:55:17.:55:23.

Thank you for joining us. The Labour MP Jim Murphy says the independence

:55:24.:55:29.

referendum is not the antidote to what he calls the poison of

:55:30.:55:32.

coalition policies from Westminster. In an article, he says quitting the

:55:33.:55:38.

UK would be to abandon a safety net for Scotland. A spokesman for the

:55:39.:55:42.

Conservatives said changes to welfare benefits are necessary.

:55:43.:55:47.

The former Scottish Secretary's interventions stresses that the vote

:55:48.:55:51.

should not be seen as a friend on the current UK Government or its

:55:52.:55:57.

reform policies. He argues that at one level, the SNP's case would be

:55:58.:56:01.

seductive if it wasn't so superficial. Their current taxi --

:56:02.:56:08.

tactic is to add people to vote yes to say no to the bedroom tax and

:56:09.:56:13.

David Cameron. That is not a reason to vote to leave the UK.

:56:14.:56:35.

Jim Murphy joins me now in the studio. Your article ends with you

:56:36.:56:43.

saying, why would we leave now when a fairer Scotland can still lie

:56:44.:56:45.

ahead by smack is that an acceptance that errors -- that varies and

:56:46.:57:04.

fairness in Scotland? My point is that Tory policies are a poison that

:57:05.:57:07.

Scotland does not want to drink and does not have to drink. The antidote

:57:08.:57:14.

to that poison isn't the referendum this year but the Labour government

:57:15.:57:24.

in 2015. Why vote no? A Tory government can be gone within a

:57:25.:57:27.

year. Independence is permanent, it is for ever. The MPs have tried a

:57:28.:57:37.

discussion about economy, the currency, defence, and in most cases

:57:38.:57:40.

they find it difficult to gain traction for their argument. So

:57:41.:57:45.

they've retreated into, if you don't like the Tories, vote for

:57:46.:57:48.

independence. It is ludicrous, desperate politics. Given what we've

:57:49.:57:54.

seen in the last bit years, people seeing what they've called a

:57:55.:57:59.

democratic deficit when there is a Tory government in Westminster, you

:58:00.:58:03.

cannot give Arent you that that will not happen again if the current

:58:04.:58:10.

system continues. This referendum is much more important than any general

:58:11.:58:14.

election with ever faced. Governments come and go, this is for

:58:15.:58:19.

ever. This is more important than the first election in January 1910,

:58:20.:58:24.

more important than the general election post war in 1945. It is the

:58:25.:58:30.

biggest decision ever taken in history in Scotland. To reduce it to

:58:31.:58:35.

who hates the Tories most when they could be gone in a year is pretty

:58:36.:58:41.

desperate and shallow. Let's say someone's objection is nuclear

:58:42.:58:44.

weapons, for instance. How should they vote? Well, which party in 2015

:58:45.:58:50.

has a different approach to nuclear weapons? The Labour Party would like

:58:51.:58:55.

to see a world we of nuclear weapons. It is how you would

:58:56.:59:03.

negotiate your way away from having nuclear weapons and towards a

:59:04.:59:06.

nuclear free world. They would love that to happen through negotiations

:59:07.:59:14.

with Obama and Putin. The contradiction is that ultimately,

:59:15.:59:18.

what you are saying is you would confirm that I prefer a Conservative

:59:19.:59:22.

Party in Westminster rather than a Labour Party running in Scotland.

:59:23.:59:27.

That is ludicrous. My argument is, you cannot reduce the referendum

:59:28.:59:34.

this year into a Punch and Judy show about the government next year. I

:59:35.:59:38.

joined the Labour government because I hate Tory policy. This is not a

:59:39.:59:45.

protest vote about the Tories, this is a permanent decision about the

:59:46.:59:51.

nature and future of our country. As to your question about defeatism, as

:59:52.:59:54.

you probably know, I'm a big football plan. Unless you are away

:59:55.:00:02.

to Barcelona, you never plan for a draw or a defeat. David Cameron is

:00:03.:00:11.

not lying or messy and I think we can avoid tanning for a draw or a

:00:12.:00:19.

defeat. There is a general unfairness about the way the economy

:00:20.:00:23.

is organised. I think Scotland wants to be rid of that type of politics.

:00:24.:00:29.

But the answer to getting rid of Tory policies isn't to change your

:00:30.:00:32.

passport, it is to change your government. The problem is that the

:00:33.:00:37.

UK, it is the UK Government. If you want to get rid of the UK bedroom

:00:38.:00:41.

tax, you don't have to get a separate army. If you want era

:00:42.:00:46.

energy prices, you don't have to take the huge risk involved in

:00:47.:00:53.

taking on a new policy and currency. When the SNP cannot even answer

:00:54.:00:56.

which currency would be in your pocket, it is clearly an enormous

:00:57.:01:00.

risk will stop should you share a platform with Conservatives to

:01:01.:01:07.

campaign for the union? I will not be sharing a platform with David

:01:08.:01:11.

Cameron during the referendum. Why is your party in bed with them in

:01:12.:01:17.

the Better Together campaign? On this issue, we shouldn't pretend

:01:18.:01:20.

that when we disagree about almost everything else we don't agree with

:01:21.:01:27.

them on one issue. It is not a surprise that the Tories are for the

:01:28.:01:38.

union. From different political traditions, we come to a similar

:01:39.:01:41.

answer on how you vote in this referendum, but only on this one

:01:42.:01:47.

issue. And if people vote no, should your party offer people more powers

:01:48.:01:50.

for the parliament in Edinburgh as a result of that vote? I think the

:01:51.:01:54.

Labour Party will come forward with those plans in advance of the

:01:55.:01:59.

referendum. Gordon Brown was suggesting there should be further

:02:00.:02:03.

demolition. Well, there will be further demolition. After that, we

:02:04.:02:11.

have to look at further powers. This debate cannot be about which group

:02:12.:02:14.

of politicians in which parliament in which city exercise powers. There

:02:15.:02:18.

are people whose lives are in crisis at the moment, people are using food

:02:19.:02:24.

banks and moneylenders. Those people who are coping will go head to the

:02:25.:02:32.

summer and think, how can I afford a summer holiday? If this conversation

:02:33.:02:36.

is just about which power is in parliament, it is going to be a

:02:37.:02:40.

turgid time for many people. This is not just about power, it is about

:02:41.:02:50.

political will. Thank you. I'm joined again by the First

:02:51.:02:53.

Minister who's been listening to that interview. Is it the case that

:02:54.:02:56.

you've been trying to characterise this referendum vote as a debate

:02:57.:03:01.

between your party and the Tories at Westminster? Well, I don't know what

:03:02.:03:08.

debate Jim Murphy has been watching, but if you see from the White

:03:09.:03:11.

Paper, the argument underpinning the case for an independent Scotland is

:03:12.:03:15.

the proposition that the best people to decide the future of this country

:03:16.:03:18.

are people living and working in this country. That is the argument

:03:19.:03:23.

that runs through the White Paper like a golden thread. Jim Murphy

:03:24.:03:27.

seems to be unaware of that. The second idea is that Tory governments

:03:28.:03:33.

are temporary interludes. For two thirds of my life, Scotland has been

:03:34.:03:36.

governed by parties we did not elect at Westminster. They are not

:03:37.:03:40.

temporary interludes, they have been the norm that two thirds of my

:03:41.:03:45.

life. Which is why I suspect so many Labour people - Charles Gray, for

:03:46.:03:52.

example - take the opposite view to Jim Murphy. They can see the

:03:53.:03:59.

advantages of having a socially and economically progressive Scotland,

:04:00.:04:03.

which is why they are voting yes. In 2010, 16% of the UK -- the Scottish

:04:04.:04:12.

population voted conservative will stop --. Why are you writing them

:04:13.:04:20.

off? I will repeat that the thread running through the White Paper is

:04:21.:04:26.

the best people to decide on the fate of this country are the people

:04:27.:04:30.

living and working in this country. I want everyone who has the right to

:04:31.:04:35.

vote to vote for independence. I don't exclude anyone, on that

:04:36.:04:42.

proposition. People living and working you will make the best

:04:43.:04:47.

decisions. That is the argument for independence across the globe. Some

:04:48.:04:52.

people in the Labour Party now extend that argument to other

:04:53.:04:55.

countries where they think self-determination is really

:04:56.:04:58.

important and valuable, but they don't extend it to be argument for

:04:59.:05:03.

independence in Scotland. Like other countries, I think Scotland will be

:05:04.:05:06.

better off running all of its own affairs. Jim Murphy got into

:05:07.:05:15.

substantial trouble when a Labour government supported the illegal war

:05:16.:05:19.

in Iraq will stop that is in the decision the people in Scotland will

:05:20.:05:22.

not have supported and no Scottish government would have participated

:05:23.:05:30.

in. Thank you for joining us. Let's now cross for the news. Good

:05:31.:05:41.

afternoon. Pro union academics claim charging tuition fees to students

:05:42.:05:45.

from the rest of the UK in an independent Scotland could break

:05:46.:05:50.

European law. Current regulations prevent undergraduates from

:05:51.:05:54.

countries outside the UK being charged fees from Scottish

:05:55.:05:57.

universities. Independence would mean students from the south of the

:05:58.:06:01.

border would also be eligible for free education. The first minister

:06:02.:06:08.

said the policy was compatible with EU requirements. A man and the boy

:06:09.:06:12.

have died after their car came off the road and plunged into the River

:06:13.:06:17.

Clyde near Bob will bridge in Lanarkshire yesterday morning.

:06:18.:06:21.

Divers located the car ran the people inside. A 38-year-old man and

:06:22.:06:25.

a nine-year-old boy died at the scene. People are being urged to

:06:26.:06:30.

complete bowel cancer screening tests which they will receive when

:06:31.:06:37.

they turned 50 this year. They have to take part in screening every two

:06:38.:06:41.

years and the plan is to improve survival rates by early detection.

:06:42.:06:47.

Now for the early weather forecast with Judith. There is some rain in

:06:48.:06:51.

the forecast later on but for most of us it will be dry with some

:06:52.:06:56.

brightness this afternoon. The best sunshine reserve for Easter

:06:57.:07:04.

Scotland. The rain will move into the West. As the rain marches in

:07:05.:07:11.

across the country it will turn to snow, the forward edge of the rain

:07:12.:07:15.

over the higher ground and central belt. That is all from now. Both

:07:16.:07:25.

sides in the independence campaign have started the New Year

:07:26.:07:28.

assertively. Now let's look at the headlines and what is coming up this

:07:29.:07:36.

week. My guests this week are the Professor of economics at Glasgow

:07:37.:07:40.

Caledonian University and political editor of the Scottish Daily Mail.

:07:41.:07:46.

The front page of the Sunday Herald has Cameron's plea to put in saying

:07:47.:07:53.

help to stop Salmond. This is a leak from the Kremlin that apparently

:07:54.:07:58.

came out on Hogmanay suggesting a Cameron aid has warned independence

:07:59.:08:01.

could send shock waves across the whole of Europe and enlisting the

:08:02.:08:07.

help of land you put in, what you make of that? It is part of a

:08:08.:08:12.

considered campaign to get other countries interested in the

:08:13.:08:15.

referendum. David Cameron had a meeting with Spain to discuss it.

:08:16.:08:23.

They are looking for their closest allies on this path towards the

:08:24.:08:31.

restructure. This story has appeared because of the G8 this year. Cameron

:08:32.:08:39.

has an interest in making the G8 countries aware of the potential

:08:40.:08:45.

destructive nature of a yes vote. The Spanish Prime Minister has

:08:46.:08:49.

something to say on this. Otherworldly doors do not want to

:08:50.:08:52.

become involved and you can understand why. Listening to Jim

:08:53.:08:59.

Murphy earlier saying it is not a protest vote, I think it is the

:09:00.:09:05.

opportunity for a protest vote against the major economic

:09:06.:09:09.

institutions that run our economy. Other countries are interested in

:09:10.:09:13.

the opportunity the referendum provides us with for change. This is

:09:14.:09:22.

bigger than just about Scotland. We will talk about another survey in

:09:23.:09:27.

just a second but we will not expect Putin to have a grand pronouncement

:09:28.:09:33.

in whether Scotland should or should not be independent? Now, of course

:09:34.:09:39.

not. We will hear from more European leaders, EU leaders, in the next few

:09:40.:09:48.

months. I know the SNP are trawling Europe for support. We will hear

:09:49.:09:51.

more concern from other nations in the months ahead. We also have this

:09:52.:09:59.

issue of tuition fees. That is in the Scotland on Sunday newspaper

:10:00.:10:04.

today. An independent Scotland would not be able to charge those from

:10:05.:10:09.

elsewhere in the UK as it currently does. The First Minister says this

:10:10.:10:13.

is not the case and he believes he has legal advice which backs this

:10:14.:10:16.

up, it is an interesting part of the debate? All last night I was talking

:10:17.:10:24.

with friends over dinner about this very issue. Our education system is

:10:25.:10:30.

inherently in equal and has been for many decades. We have widened access

:10:31.:10:35.

but not participation, they are two very different things. I believe in

:10:36.:10:40.

universalism and universal welfare provision but when it comes to our

:10:41.:10:45.

higher education system it is time to revisit the introduction of fees

:10:46.:10:49.

and means testing, I think it is fundamentally unfair. Fees for

:10:50.:10:54.

everyone is a positive will -- possible alternative. David is a

:10:55.:11:02.

potential for Scottish universities to lose out to the tune of ?150

:11:03.:11:11.

million per year. This is typical of the SNP one thing to be a member of

:11:12.:11:18.

DUP but not play with the rules. -- a member of the European Union. They

:11:19.:11:24.

will find it offensive the fact they will let Irish, French and Spanish

:11:25.:11:31.

students study for free but if you are English you will be charged.

:11:32.:11:37.

There are different rules that can be brought to bear, some experts

:11:38.:11:44.

say. Countries across Europe shared land borders, in Austria and Germany

:11:45.:11:49.

the same debate is going on there. I do not think the SNP can get away

:11:50.:11:55.

with this at all. There is survey in the Scotland on Sunday that says

:11:56.:12:01.

almost half of the people elsewhere in the UK, this poll suggests that

:12:02.:12:06.

the fear is that the rest of the UK would be weakened by Scottish

:12:07.:12:10.

independence. This has not been touched on yet. What a yes vote

:12:11.:12:15.

would mean for the rest of the UK in regards to the UN and other bodies.

:12:16.:12:27.

This issue came up last night, people in the North of England are

:12:28.:12:31.

supportive of Scottish independence because they think it revives a

:12:32.:12:35.

radical framework for the departure of the past and past ways of

:12:36.:12:41.

working. They would look for Scotland to provide that radical

:12:42.:12:45.

framework and perhaps the bravery in Scotland to be more confident and do

:12:46.:12:53.

things differently. I think we have the opportunity for a radical vision

:12:54.:13:00.

and the childcare example is a great one. Transformational childcare is

:13:01.:13:05.

key. What we have got at the moment is promises we are working towards

:13:06.:13:11.

in an incremental way. Things cannot change overnight, we have issues

:13:12.:13:16.

around capacity. The current government vision for childcare is

:13:17.:13:19.

transformational and as an example of that radical way of thinking that

:13:20.:13:23.

we can change things and make Scotland a better place for all of

:13:24.:13:30.

us. Just to look at the week ahead we have the speech coming up from

:13:31.:13:36.

the Scottish Secretary. We have had a big speech from Nicola Sturgeon in

:13:37.:13:39.

recent days and it does feel as though things are really stepping up

:13:40.:13:49.

a gear as regards this campaign. I think we will hear tomorrow about

:13:50.:13:53.

more powers, that will be the theme of the unionist campaign in the

:13:54.:13:58.

coming weeks. We heard from Gordon Brown yesterday talking about

:13:59.:14:02.

further devolution. This is what we will hear more of in the coming

:14:03.:14:07.

weeks. Is there a danger of people being turned off with too much

:14:08.:14:13.

detail? Absolutely, the adverse serial nature needs to move on and

:14:14.:14:17.

we need to talk about women in our communities, we need to talk deal.

:14:18.:14:23.

That is all from us this week, goodbye.

:14:24.:14:33.

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