08/11/2015 Sunday Politics Scotland


08/11/2015

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As evidence grows that the Russian passenger jet downed over

:00:34.:00:39.

Egypt's Sinai desert last weekend was the target of

:00:40.:00:43.

a terrorist attack, we look at how Moscow and the West will respond.

:00:44.:00:47.

We'll have the latest from Egypt and Russia, and ask are we now

:00:48.:00:51.

on the brink of an even more dangerous phase of Islamist

:00:52.:00:54.

David Cameron says he's ready to lead Britain out of the EU

:00:55.:01:01.

if he doesn't get what he wants from renegotiation,

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Will his list of demands result in a good deal or turn out to be

:01:05.:01:09.

And on Sunday Politics Scotland, The Scotland Bill is due to finish

:01:10.:01:17.

We'll be asking the Finance Secretary John Swinney.

:01:18.:01:27.

Speed and as a nation embarked on a Remembrance Sunday, we look at the

:01:28.:01:33.

support of legends receive once they leave the Armed Forces.

:01:34.:01:46.

the most anticipated TV event since the John Lewis Christmas advert!

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It's Nick Watt, Polly Toynbee and Janan Ganesh.

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We're not sure if they'll make you start thinking

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But they may well bring a tear to your eye.

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So, this week, we'll see what many eurosceptics and europhiles have

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been waiting for with all the excitement of a child thinking about

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their Christmas wish list, even though it's only early November.

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David Cameron will publish his letter to the President of the

:02:09.:02:12.

European Council setting out the "broad outlines" of what he wants

:02:13.:02:14.

to achieve from his renegotiation of Britain's EU membership.

:02:15.:02:17.

The upfront briefing from Ten Downing Street says that

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he'll challenge both the in and out campaigns to be more

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But, to assuage the eurosceptic majority in his party he'll use his

:02:25.:02:29.

strongest language yet to say that if he doesn't get what he wants,

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Whether they believe him is another matter.

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This is what Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has to say this

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The British people will not be fobbed off with a set of cosmetic

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This is about fundamental change in the direction of travel in the

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European Union, to make sure that it works for Britain, and that it is

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an effective organisation for all the citizens of Europe, driving our

:02:56.:02:59.

prosperity and competitiveness in the 21st century.

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If we cannot do that, then we will not be able to win a referendum.

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That was the Foreign Secretary. Janan Ganesh, is anything happening?

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There is a problem the David Cameron, the things he is most

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likely to get from his renegotiation are not the things that will move

:03:22.:03:24.

the average voter, so what he is likely to get our protections for

:03:25.:03:28.

non-euro countries within the EU, and that will be very technical

:03:29.:03:31.

institutional stuff, double majority voting and so forth. That is doable,

:03:32.:03:38.

the Germans don't want a fragmented EU in terms of the currency. Does

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your average undecided voter decide on the basis of that? I think they

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are more moved by free movement and immigration, maybe even economic

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regulation, so the things he is most likely to get may not help him in a

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year or 18 months' time when he is campaigning to win a referendum. You

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get the feeling he has delayed telling us what he is really looking

:04:00.:04:01.

for because he is bound to disappoint. Indeed, and he has to be

:04:02.:04:07.

very careful to ask for things he can get. Three of the main things he

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can get, but I don't think he will get the four years' delay for in

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work benefits, it is discriminatory and goes against the basic

:04:17.:04:20.

principles and yet he is asking again. We can only hope he has had a

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nod and a wink from 27 other countries that they will agree to

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that because if he fails to get it, it will agree to that because if he

:04:28.:04:33.

fails to get it, it'll renegotiation and it is a good package, so we will

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hope it is not a cavalier piece of speaking. What is your take? Philip

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Hammond did say some of the changes would be introduced through domestic

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legislation would be introduced through domestic

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codify some recent would be introduced through domestic

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judgments that have gone in favour of the UK and not embedded in treaty

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change, but the hard language about treaty change, the reason they are

:05:05.:05:05.

standing soaked up, is George treaty change, the reason they are

:05:06.:05:12.

he is going to get a treaty treaty change, the reason they are

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outs and Britain will get an opt out from an ever closer union. George

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Osborne's the is that the protection for the Euro outs is the most

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important thing he can get the benefit of Britain but he knows

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politically the campaign, the most important thing he has to get those

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migrant benefit restrictions. We will see what he says on Tuesday,

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that is when the speech is being made.

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A senior US government official is quoted today by CNN saying they are

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"99.9% certain" that the 224 passengers aboard the Russian jet

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which crashed into the Sinai Desert last Saturday were the victims

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That's the view in London as well as Washington and now,

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draws up plans to repatriate 80,000 of its holidaymakers from various

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locations in Egypt, after it suspended all flights there,

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following in the wake of Britain's decision to suspend flights from

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The downing of the flight is a tragedy for those who lost

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than al-Qaeda, as a terrorist group capable of hitting targets far from

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In a moment, we will speak to Steve Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First,

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we are Rosenberg in St Petersburg. First,

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now? The British were the first to stop flights, the Americans followed

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another flights to Egypt except to get

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people out, is it beginning to trouble the Cairo Government? The

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Egyptian Government seems to be in a very tight situation, from an

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economic perspective. very tight situation, from an

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very important to the economy, it is a lifeline to the Egyptian economy,

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which is already in a bad shape and the tourism industry depends mainly

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on Russia and Britain, so the fact that no more to wrists, from Russia

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or Britain, will be coming to Egypt is a huge blow to tourism here and

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Egypt needs foreign currency and it depends on tourist spot that mainly,

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so it is a major blow to the industry and put the Government in a

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tight situation. On the other hand, the way the Egyptians have handled

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security in Sharm el-Sheikh airport was a matter of great concern and

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criticism from different countries around the world, even the tourists

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I have spoken to, they told us when they first arrived, the security

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measures were a mess, so now the measures have been tightened, some

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to wrists I spoke to yesterday told me it makes them feel better -- some

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to tourist. If the President Sese Government is feeling beleaguered in

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Cairo and will take another economic hit because of the tourism, can we

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expect further crackdown on the Sinai province terrorist groups? It

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is hard to tell at the moment, but the Sinai military operation has

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been going on for nearly two years now and every now and then, we hear

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about major attacks carried by mainly the IS affiliated group

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called the Sinai province, so the fact that the group have operated in

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Sinai the nearly two years, it seems the insurgency group is still

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gaining momentum and if it happens to be true they managed to smuggle a

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bomb on board the plane, it is a major blow to the security

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operators. Sally Nabil, thank you. Let's go to St Petersburg, we are

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joined by Steve Rosenberg. Is there any indication yet of how, assuming

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that it is shown to be a terrorist attack, any indication of how

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Vladimir Putin is going to respond? No, not yet. I think it is important

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to remember that despite the growing suspicion that this was a bomb, the

:09:29.:09:33.

official Kremlin line still is that it is keeping an open mind about

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this disaster, it is treating all theories equally and the Kremlin

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says the fact that it has suspended all flights to Egypt does not mean

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it favours the terror theory over any other. Having said that, if it

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is proven to be a bomb, then judging by the way President Putin has

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responded in the past to terror attacks, I think we can expect a

:09:58.:10:03.

forceful response from him. How is the domestic politics? I know it is

:10:04.:10:06.

hard to tell, because the media is so controlled by the Kremlin, but is

:10:07.:10:11.

this an opportunity for Mr Putin to further strengthen his position with

:10:12.:10:16.

a tougher crackdown, or is there their fear in the Kremlin that

:10:17.:10:20.

having casualties as a result of his war on terror will not make him very

:10:21.:10:25.

popular? It is an interesting question. I remember back in 2004,

:10:26.:10:30.

when there was a string of terror attacks on Russian soil, there were

:10:31.:10:34.

bombs in the Moscow Metro, two planes bombed out of the sky and the

:10:35.:10:43.

year ended with the school siege in Beslan, where 330 people were

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killed. None of that seemed to dent Vladimir Putin's popularity. Quite

:10:48.:10:50.

the opposite, he used it to strengthen the power of the Kremlin.

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Now, you could argue that if this doesn't prove to have been a bomb,

:10:57.:11:00.

that could undermine the narrative that the Kremlin has been pushing

:11:01.:11:03.

domestically about its military operation in Syria. In other words,

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Russia has been saying it has been carrying out air strikes in Syria to

:11:09.:11:15.

boost national security in Russia, to destroy terrorists so they

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couldn't come to Russia and kill people there, that narrative will be

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seriously undermined. But whether Russians would connect the dots and

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say, President Putin said we would be safer but we clearly are not, I

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don't think that would happen, because the Kremlin control so

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tightly the media here, particularly television, and television is the

:11:35.:11:39.

key to influencing public opinion. So if the Kremlin was to change the

:11:40.:11:43.

narrative to something more like we have been attacked, we are the

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victims of terror, we need to carry on our battle against international

:11:47.:11:50.

terrorism, I think the Russian public would support that and from

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the people I have spoken to on the streets of St Petersburg this

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morning, I haven't heard a word of criticism of Vladimir Putin. Most

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people have said to me, I understand Russia is at threat of terror

:12:02.:12:05.

attacks and they don't seem to connect what may have happened to

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the Russian air bus with Russia's military operation in Syria. Steve

:12:09.:12:12.

Rosenberg in St Petersburg. We're joined now by the foreign

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affairs analyst Tim Marshall, Dr Domitilla Sagramoso,

:12:17.:12:18.

an expert in Russian security And joining us from our Plymouth

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studio is the He sits on the

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Commons Defence Committee, and is Tim Marshall, if, as the

:12:24.:12:36.

intelligence suggests, this attack was coordinated with Islamic State

:12:37.:12:41.

leaders in Iraq, and its affiliates in the Sinai called soon I

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province, it means Islamic State has the capability to plot mass casualty

:12:47.:12:52.

attacks outside of Syria and Iraq -- called Sinai province. I think in

:12:53.:12:55.

the future, they will be able to do it globally and this is the first

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sign of them doing it outside of the countries they operate in. The head

:12:59.:13:05.

of the FSB came back the lead met Putin on Friday and Putin

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immediately set ground the planes, Putin on Friday and Putin

:13:08.:13:11.

that shows us what they truly believe. Britain is third, it is

:13:12.:13:16.

that shows us what they truly Russia and Germany and France in the

:13:17.:13:29.

amount of tourists there. President Sisi has been to Moscow three times

:13:30.:13:32.

since he was elected. He is trying to pull Russia back from America. So

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it is difficult for the Egyptians and Russians to come back out to

:13:38.:13:42.

openly unsaved. So to come back to your original point, I think it is

:13:43.:13:45.

pretty clear that the Isis affiliate in Sinai swore allegiance to Isis in

:13:46.:13:52.

Iraq. They are under a lot of pressure from the Russians, 20% of

:13:53.:13:58.

the bombing was against Syria. They have told their affiliate in the

:13:59.:14:02.

Sinai, you are the ones who can do it from you do the operation, they

:14:03.:14:05.

have killed the Russians and the Russians have to respond, I agree

:14:06.:14:06.

with what the Moscow correspondent Russians have to respond, I agree

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said, Putin does not respond -- not not respond, Putin responds and

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response with violence. Johnny Mercer, if

:14:21.:14:22.

response with violence. Johnny true and it was a planned attack by

:14:23.:14:26.

Islamic State, it takes IS into what is called full spectrum terrorist

:14:27.:14:31.

activity and it is better financed than Al-Qaeda, it is better

:14:32.:14:37.

resourced and organised in Syria and Iraq and Osama Bin Laden ever was

:14:38.:14:42.

sitting in a cave in Afghanistan, this takes the global war on

:14:43.:14:44.

terrorism to a whole new level. This threat is existential. You can

:14:45.:14:55.

see, if this is proved to be something that has originated from

:14:56.:15:00.

so-called Islamic State, you can see their strategic region. This is why

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the Prime Minister has been going on about this for so long. We have to

:15:06.:15:09.

the Prime Minister has been going on State because the threat will only

:15:10.:15:11.

get closer. We see State because the threat will only

:15:12.:15:15.

outpouring of humanity with that little boy washed up on a beach. We

:15:16.:15:19.

outpouring of humanity with that have had 30 of our own terrorists

:15:20.:15:24.

massacred in Tunisia. I understand. Is the British

:15:25.:15:28.

response which the Prime Minister has not managed to get Pollard to

:15:29.:15:31.

agree to on has not managed to get Pollard to

:15:32.:15:34.

jets into Syria, is that really has not managed to get Pollard to

:15:35.:15:35.

adequate given what you have called has not managed to get Pollard to

:15:36.:15:40.

We need to do what we are question of how much manpower or

:15:41.:15:48.

machinery we are sending but the effect we can achieve on the ground.

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machinery we are sending but the We have been asked to provide those

:15:52.:15:52.

Tornado jets because they have a specific tactical and technical

:15:53.:15:57.

capability to the coalition are asked when it comes to dynamic

:15:58.:16:00.

targeting within Syria. We asked when it comes to dynamic

:16:01.:16:04.

stand up to that and do our duty, and have the stomach for the fight.

:16:05.:16:08.

The idea we are asking people to do some mass bombing in Syria with no

:16:09.:16:12.

strategy, some mass bombing in Syria with no

:16:13.:16:14.

We should have got past this by now. some mass bombing in Syria with no

:16:15.:16:23.

Mr Putin? To a certain extent, this has

:16:24.:16:26.

Mr Putin? brought the ball back to Russia. I

:16:27.:16:30.

would disagree with what the correspondent was saying, that the

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Russians will not be particularly affected and critical of Mr Putin's

:16:36.:16:40.

paper in the Middle East. On the one hand they understand, that is their

:16:41.:16:44.

argument that the President Assad regime needed to be faced for stock

:16:45.:16:54.

because it had fallen, then jihadists groups in Damascus and

:16:55.:16:59.

western parts of the country weather and they understand that.

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On the other hand, they will put brakes to any attempt to send ground

:17:04.:17:08.

troops which I think they are not planning to do either. I imagine he

:17:09.:17:15.

will have another response to the bombing.

:17:16.:17:19.

He hasn't done much, Tim Marshall. He has been bombing the other groups

:17:20.:17:23.

against President Assad. He may now extend the bombing to

:17:24.:17:25.

Islamic State. If you look at the pattern of

:17:26.:17:30.

bombing, 80% against the Free Syrian Army, it's changed on Thursday.

:17:31.:17:36.

There was an increase on bombing on Isis targets and I think you'll see

:17:37.:17:40.

more of that in coming days. There is no way the Russians will react.

:17:41.:17:46.

The Russian public, if you look at 9/11 and the reaction of the

:17:47.:17:49.

American public, lots of things have happened to lots of countries, the

:17:50.:17:53.

immediate reaction in the first weeks and months is not, our foreign

:17:54.:17:58.

policy is wrong, but revenge. The most potent of many of the human

:17:59.:18:02.

emotions. I am certain in the short term the Russian public will support

:18:03.:18:07.

more action. Your original point, Isis is in Libya, Syria,

:18:08.:18:17.

Afghanistan, Iraq, India, growing very slowly in many other countries,

:18:18.:18:22.

and it has become the poster boy for jihadists. It has replaced Al-Qaeda

:18:23.:18:27.

and with that comes money and people prepared to kill themselves.

:18:28.:18:31.

Johnny Mercer, the head of MI5 says the threat of terrorism to the UK is

:18:32.:18:35.

the highest he has seen, that was before the jet went down over the

:18:36.:18:41.

Sinai desert. We now know, we have had it independently corroborated,

:18:42.:18:45.

that I S has been using mustard gas on civilians in Aleppo, not because

:18:46.:18:51.

it is a very use to them, but as a sign, we have got it, a sign to the

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West. Is that a response series SATs is

:18:55.:19:00.

there a response seriously adequate to this?

:19:01.:19:04.

Until now, we have not been militarily involved as much as we

:19:05.:19:07.

should have. We are in a difficult place here, we are learning all

:19:08.:19:12.

still healing from the mistakes in the last 15 years in terms of

:19:13.:19:16.

foreign policy engagement. That can't mean we draw up the

:19:17.:19:20.

drawbridge and think the way to keep safe at home and keep our way of

:19:21.:19:25.

life is to have no strategic involvement overseas.

:19:26.:19:29.

If it is proved this is done by so-called Islamic State, it

:19:30.:19:33.

demonstrates their strategic reach and reinforces that argument that we

:19:34.:19:36.

have to do something about this threat. It is only going to come

:19:37.:19:40.

closer and it is not good enough for it to come closer, the something to

:19:41.:19:44.

happen, and afterward for us to say, we should have done this and that.

:19:45.:19:51.

We need an intelligent foreign policy such intervention strategy,

:19:52.:19:54.

this is what the banister is trying to do and we should support him.

:19:55.:20:00.

He referred to help Afghanistan and Iraq hang over this country's

:20:01.:20:04.

foreign policy and military responses. Does Afghanistan, from

:20:05.:20:10.

the Soviet era, does that hang over, is it a restraint on what the

:20:11.:20:13.

Kremlin might do today? Totally, they are aware of the risks

:20:14.:20:17.

that occurred when they intervened and the deaths and casualties in

:20:18.:20:23.

Afghanistan. One of the reasons why the Civic union became so weak and

:20:24.:20:26.

eventually led to its disintegration. There is only one

:20:27.:20:34.

other point I would like to make which people in Russia are now

:20:35.:20:39.

talking about, experts, is the fact that to a certain extent this attack

:20:40.:20:44.

was also very much targeted against Egypt. I think a lot of the focus

:20:45.:20:49.

has been on Russia. For me, it was always not very clear white Isis in

:20:50.:20:54.

Egypt in the Sinai desert was going to attack if Russian plane, and why

:20:55.:20:59.

not the people who were under the bombs?

:21:00.:21:01.

It seems very much that we should not forget the dimension that to a

:21:02.:21:04.

certain extent the Russians might The rebels will vote down so they

:21:05.:22:34.

can't go. Because of Iraq, we are not going to go without

:22:35.:22:39.

Parliamentary riddled. On the world spectrum, the 1 country that has

:22:40.:22:42.

pushed harder than any other in the Western sense is the French, who are

:22:43.:22:47.

putting the aircraft carrier back into the Gulf. It was therefore to

:22:48.:22:54.

mums and sending it back. At the request of the Americans. This is

:22:55.:22:59.

2007, the Americans don't have a carrier in the gold. It is not

:23:00.:23:05.

because of the fire power. They would make a difference, it is

:23:06.:23:10.

political to say, hand on, we as a culture, who have common things in

:23:11.:23:15.

our belief systems, we are standing together. At the moment, they are

:23:16.:23:22.

not. I will leave it there. At this point, we say goodbye to viewers in

:23:23.:23:23.

Scotland to leave us. Good morning and welcome to

:23:24.:23:29.

Sunday Politics Scotland. The Scotland Bill is poised to

:23:30.:23:31.

finish its journey through But is the wrangling over

:23:32.:23:40.

further powers finally over? And as the nation marks

:23:41.:23:43.

Remembrance Sunday, we look at the support veterans

:23:44.:23:45.

receive once they leave the forces. When you are in the forces, you are

:23:46.:23:58.

looked after, but then it is a culture shock when you leave.

:23:59.:24:01.

The Scotland Bill is back before MPs tomorrow - accompanied

:24:02.:24:03.

by a shed load of amendments which are supposed to clarify,

:24:04.:24:06.

among other things, the new welfare powers of the Scottish Parliament.

:24:07.:24:08.

Alex Salmond has prompted a late controversy by tabling an amendment

:24:09.:24:11.

saying Holyrood should be given the power to decide if and when there is

:24:12.:24:14.

And, of course, there is a full scale political row going

:24:15.:24:19.

on over how the Scottish government should use the new welfare powers.

:24:20.:24:22.

I'm joined by the Deputy First Minister John Swinney - who's also

:24:23.:24:25.

Cabinet Secretary for Finance, the Constitution and Economy.

:24:26.:24:31.

I suppose we should point out you have been a senator in Glasgow,

:24:32.:24:38.

there used to seeing you with a silly picture of Dundee. I am in

:24:39.:24:41.

Glasgow at this point, but it silly picture of Dundee. I am in

:24:42.:24:48.

this amendment, Alex Salmond who has come up with it. I busy in the

:24:49.:24:51.

government would back him come up with it. I busy in the

:24:52.:24:54.

Robinson in saying the Scottish government should have control over

:24:55.:24:59.

when there is another independence referendum. They legislated for the

:25:00.:25:06.

independence referendum in 2014, and I think everybody acknowledges that

:25:07.:25:10.

legislation was well handed, it was crafted carefully, it was

:25:11.:25:16.

legislation was well handed, it was referendum which was beyond

:25:17.:25:20.

illustration that on this issue of significance, the Scottish

:25:21.:25:23.

parliament should be able to determine how this issue is

:25:24.:25:28.

handled. The counter would be to say you can't have one part of the UK

:25:29.:25:35.

with an indefinite right, when ever it decides, to break up the UK. We

:25:36.:25:39.

had a it decides, to break up the UK. We

:25:40.:25:41.

the legislation that was it decides, to break up the UK. We

:25:42.:25:45.

the Scottish parliament. To me that sets a strong president on how these

:25:46.:25:47.

issues should sets a strong president on how these

:25:48.:25:55.

exercised its competence with such care and effectiveness on this

:25:56.:25:58.

question should allay any of those questions that are raised about

:25:59.:26:01.

whether it is right for the Parliament to hold that power. What

:26:02.:26:06.

we've seen in the course of the last 15 years has been a transfer of

:26:07.:26:12.

additional response military is beyond the ones that were originally

:26:13.:26:16.

conceived of in the Scottish act when the reservation on a

:26:17.:26:20.

constructional policy was put in place. On the Scotland Bill Alec

:26:21.:26:26.

Neill seem to be saying that you now accept that under the Scotland Bill,

:26:27.:26:31.

you will have the powers over things like tax credits. That's right, is

:26:32.:26:36.

it? There are two amendments which will be relevant, one from the UK

:26:37.:26:40.

government and want on the Scottish National Party, which will give the

:26:41.:26:45.

parliament the power to exercise responsibilities. The amendment

:26:46.:26:50.

dolls the macro devolves the tax system, so there can be no doubt the

:26:51.:26:56.

fact the Scottish Parliament can exercise these responsibilities, and

:26:57.:26:59.

the UK amendment sets out responsibilities that enable new

:27:00.:27:04.

benefits to be created in Scotland. Those are the elements in the bill

:27:05.:27:08.

which were not in the bill when it was first put to the House of

:27:09.:27:12.

Commons and when it was published, so the UK Parliament has the

:27:13.:27:16.

opportunity tomorrow to strengthen those powers further. And you want

:27:17.:27:21.

those powers so you can do what? Do you want to mitigate the effects of

:27:22.:27:26.

tax credit cuts? We have mitigated some of the effects of welfare

:27:27.:27:29.

reform, in relation to the bedroom tax. Do you want to do it in full?

:27:30.:27:36.

Anyone that thinks the Scottish Parliament has the financial

:27:37.:27:40.

capability and skills of resources to mitigate in full, in the

:27:41.:27:43.

entirety, the welfare reform agenda... The tax credit cuts. That

:27:44.:27:50.

is different is on the whole of the agenda, it would inconceivable... Do

:27:51.:27:56.

you want to mitigate in full? What we have set out on tax cuts

:27:57.:27:59.

specifically is that once we know the scale of the challenge we face,

:28:00.:28:05.

because we don't yet know that, the UK Chancellor has been sent home to

:28:06.:28:10.

think again after the House of Lords interventions, so we're not the end

:28:11.:28:15.

of this month, and we'll know what changes George Osborne will make.

:28:16.:28:21.

Once we know that, we will bring forward our proposals. They are

:28:22.:28:28.

designed to protect the incomes of low-income families. Is that your

:28:29.:28:33.

intention to mitigate, as Labour: four, for you to mitigate the

:28:34.:28:38.

effects of the tax credit cuts? What we will do is look at the scale of

:28:39.:28:42.

the challenge that faces us once we know the extent... Let's take as of

:28:43.:28:50.

now, as the situation now, which may be mitigated by George Osborne, but

:28:51.:28:55.

as of now, what is your estimate of how much it would cost you to

:28:56.:28:58.

mitigate in full the effect of cuts crash mark the starting costs would

:28:59.:29:09.

be 400 million, and it will rise to 630 million. That is the full cost

:29:10.:29:13.

base of George Osborne put to the House of Commons. We don't know the

:29:14.:29:17.

extent on which you will undertake changes by the time we set our

:29:18.:29:22.

budget, which will though: Macro follow the spending review. This

:29:23.:29:26.

minister made it clear that it is our intention to protect people in

:29:27.:29:30.

low-income households, who will be affected by these changes and we

:29:31.:29:34.

will see what the Chancellor says, and then design a properly costed

:29:35.:29:38.

and worked out system that will support low income. Even the worst

:29:39.:29:43.

case scenario as unmitigated by George Osborne, ?400 million

:29:44.:29:48.

initially, why can't you saying now... It is your party which has

:29:49.:29:54.

been shouting loudly. Why can't you saying now, we commit, we will work

:29:55.:29:59.

out something which will mean no family in Scotland loses as a result

:30:00.:30:04.

of the tax credit cuts? For the simple reason people expect the

:30:05.:30:08.

government to bring forward properly organised and operated systems that

:30:09.:30:11.

can address these issues, and that is what we will do. The first

:30:12.:30:15.

minister could not have been clearer in Thursday in setting out the

:30:16.:30:19.

commitment of the government to support low income households.

:30:20.:30:22.

People need to look into the history of the good men to see how we have

:30:23.:30:26.

supported people in vulnerability. We supported people affected by the

:30:27.:30:32.

bedroom tax,... You saying you can't find the money? No, not in the

:30:33.:30:37.

slightest. What I will say is that we will look at what the Chancellor

:30:38.:30:40.

sets out at the end of the month. That is the responsible thing to do

:30:41.:30:45.

so we can work out the circumstances of people who are affected, and

:30:46.:30:50.

addressed that. We will set those details are the Chancellor has

:30:51.:30:54.

resolved the difficulties he has about the operation... The changes

:30:55.:30:59.

George Osborne has proposed the tax bands, which will mean you don't pay

:31:00.:31:06.

the 40p rate until your winning ?50,000, do you agree with those

:31:07.:31:12.

proposals? We will set out the details of our tax stands for the

:31:13.:31:18.

years beyond 2016. Do you agree in principle by people on higher

:31:19.:31:21.

earnings, and the point is that over the years inflation has eroded these

:31:22.:31:28.

bands so people who are on whether to low incomes than ?42,000 are

:31:29.:31:32.

having to pay the higher rate, what George Osborne is saying is that he

:31:33.:31:37.

wants to raise the threshold at which you pay higher tax. Labour

:31:38.:31:42.

said they would not do in Scotland. Whether the macro would you

:31:43.:31:48.

implement those proposals? -- would you implement those proposals? If

:31:49.:31:53.

you look at the changes I've have brought in, you saw me taking

:31:54.:31:59.

decisions which the sifted the burden of taxation from low to

:32:00.:32:02.

moderate households to higher earners. That is me turning into

:32:03.:32:06.

practical reality the principles of this Scottish National Party... What

:32:07.:32:14.

does that mean for tax band? I'm addressing it in principle. We

:32:15.:32:18.

believe people on higher earnings should pay their fair share of

:32:19.:32:22.

taxation, and I deployed that principle as part of the transaction

:32:23.:32:28.

tax. Word comes to specific commitment around about taxation, my

:32:29.:32:32.

duty as the finance minister is to set out to Parliament exactly what

:32:33.:32:36.

changes we will make. These areas will come to us in due course. We

:32:37.:32:40.

won't be able to exercise those changes in relation to tax bands in

:32:41.:32:44.

2017 because the powers will not be with us by then. They will be with

:32:45.:32:48.

us by 2017 because the powers will not be with us by then. They will be

:32:49.:32:52.

with us by what Labour is saying is that they think it is not

:32:53.:32:57.

unreasonable to ask people in Scotland to pay, and they would end

:32:58.:33:02.

up paying more tax than they are now... We think it is reasonable for

:33:03.:33:09.

them to do that to help people on welfare. Do you agree? I think I

:33:10.:33:14.

have said already the point in principle, that I believe people on

:33:15.:33:17.

higher earnings should pay their fair share of taxation. That is why

:33:18.:33:23.

we supported the existence of the 30p tax rate when the Conservative

:33:24.:33:27.

government was taking it away. We will set out our specific proposals

:33:28.:33:29.

to Parliament, where I have a duty will set out our specific proposals

:33:30.:33:33.

and obligation to do that. There is a legitimate argument which has to

:33:34.:33:38.

and obligation to do that. There is higher earnings should pay their

:33:39.:33:42.

and obligation to do that. There is they will receive a substantial tax

:33:43.:33:46.

cut, there is an issue to be addressed as to whether or not that

:33:47.:33:52.

is the right thing to do. Lots of people in this area of the country

:33:53.:33:58.

voted for you, both in the referendum and four Yes to

:33:59.:34:02.

independence. They voted SNP because you claimed you were the party

:34:03.:34:06.

buffet would stick up for the brewer and with a party of

:34:07.:34:10.

anti-austerities. What would you apply if they said, we are getting

:34:11.:34:15.

clear answers from Labour, who say they will mitigate in full the

:34:16.:34:19.

effects of tax cuts, they do think it is more important to do that than

:34:20.:34:24.

to let people who are better off have tax breaks. Why is it suddenly

:34:25.:34:29.

that the SNP can't give us clear answers? The Labour Party is not

:34:30.:34:32.

being clear, because they are spending the money they want to

:34:33.:34:37.

spend... They will spend the money they want to spend to deal with tax

:34:38.:34:43.

credits twice. They won't spend it on education. The one thing I have

:34:44.:34:46.

learned is that you can't spend money twice, you spend at the once.

:34:47.:34:51.

Labour has been caught out spending it twice. You weren't committed to

:34:52.:34:55.

mitigating the effect of tax credit cuts. You could... You would have to

:34:56.:35:07.

make ?400 billion of cuts. I am not going to commit on BBC

:35:08.:35:13.

television... I might commit to it in the Scottish parliament, where I

:35:14.:35:17.

should set out my stance. That is what I will do. Critics will say you

:35:18.:35:22.

are a bit like a chef who fusses in the kitchen demanding you don't have

:35:23.:35:29.

the right ingredients, but now you have the right ingredients and you

:35:30.:35:33.

don't want to make anything. I will set up the position when I get the

:35:34.:35:38.

budget later on this year. We will set out clearly what the stance of

:35:39.:35:40.

the government is. We have pressed and pressed the

:35:41.:35:52.

United Kingdom government to improve the Scotland Bill, which did not

:35:53.:35:55.

deliver the Smith commission and which has resulted in as exerting

:35:56.:35:59.

significant influence to ensure we have a bill which will enable us to

:36:00.:36:03.

take a whole range of decisions on behalf of the people of Scotland. We

:36:04.:36:06.

will leave it there. The nation paused today to remember

:36:07.:36:09.

those who've given their lives In 2011, the UK government

:36:10.:36:12.

introduced Signatories are expected to

:36:13.:36:18.

recognise and try to alleviate the particular problems faced by serving

:36:19.:36:22.

and former military personnel. But finding a job

:36:23.:36:25.

and a home can still be difficult. Our reporter, John McManus, has

:36:26.:36:28.

been to a support centre in Govan Coming together to remember those

:36:29.:36:44.

who have fought on the nation's behalf and especially to pay tribute

:36:45.:36:47.

to those who made the ultimate sacrifice. For many former

:36:48.:36:54.

servicepeople who have hung up their marching boots, the transition to

:36:55.:36:59.

civilian life can be tough. This is one solution. The coming home Centre

:37:00.:37:03.

in Govan, a place where former servicepeople can come for support

:37:04.:37:08.

and help. 40 rolled Martin Gilbert is one of them. With tours of Iraq

:37:09.:37:12.

and Northern Ireland under his belt, he has still found he had few

:37:13.:37:17.

transferable skills to find a new job. So where were the politicians?

:37:18.:37:22.

All the help that I have had since coming out the Army has been through

:37:23.:37:26.

charities. I would like what the Government are meant to be doing?

:37:27.:37:33.

You're meant to get priority treatment on the NHS. You have to go

:37:34.:37:38.

to the start of the queue at the doctors. But when I am unwell,

:37:39.:37:42.

iPhone the doctors and I can't even get past the person on the phone.

:37:43.:37:48.

Ian Hopkins is a former Royal Marine who founded the centre. Says a wide

:37:49.:37:56.

variety of robins are in evidence. The vast majority of people who come

:37:57.:38:00.

through these doors tend to have a mental health issue of some kind.

:38:01.:38:04.

And all the baggage that goes with it. Some are homeless, sofa surfing,

:38:05.:38:14.

or sleeping under the bridges, there are financial problems.

:38:15.:38:18.

Occasionally, problems with addiction and self-medication. Like

:38:19.:38:22.

Martin, Ian also questions whether the Armed Forces Covenant has made

:38:23.:38:28.

an impact. In some cases, yes, but quite often, that does not

:38:29.:38:35.

materialise until later... We recently had to help a veteran who

:38:36.:38:39.

lost a leg in Afghanistan. Through the NHS, he had been offered

:38:40.:38:44.

something he did not need. Until he went along and quoted the Armed

:38:45.:38:48.

Forces Covenant and said what he needed, they then changed their

:38:49.:38:54.

tune. This 29-year-old aunt his liver dog left the forces in

:38:55.:38:58.

December. He benefited from an Army resettlement plan and careers

:38:59.:39:03.

advice. He found life outside the Army's cocoon very different. I am

:39:04.:39:08.

not seeing you get baby-sat, but everyone looks after you. When you

:39:09.:39:12.

do leave, it is a culture shock, really. You don't realise, you need

:39:13.:39:17.

to go and do everything for yourself. You don't know what places

:39:18.:39:23.

are what called or how to with things. Should veterans then be

:39:24.:39:29.

given more help to adjust to life out of uniform? How far should they

:39:30.:39:33.

be prioritised? For example, when searching for somewhere to live? The

:39:34.:39:38.

approach we have taken and the veterans organisations in Scotland

:39:39.:39:41.

have taken, is we do not want to see particular advantages. I can get a

:39:42.:39:45.

negative reaction. Many veterans themselves do not want to be given

:39:46.:39:48.

an advantage but they certainly do not want to have a disadvantage. If

:39:49.:39:52.

you're in Civvy Street, you can regulate pointedly want to get

:39:53.:39:58.

social rented housing. Many of our personnel don't realise that while

:39:59.:40:02.

they are in the Armed Forces, they can accumulate points through that

:40:03.:40:06.

time as well, so leave the forces, they would already have those points

:40:07.:40:11.

to help them access a property. Back at the centre, Ian would like to see

:40:12.:40:15.

his methods spread across the country. I would duplicate what we

:40:16.:40:19.

do all over. Without a shadow of a doubt. Help centres, where people

:40:20.:40:26.

can do meaningful work and help veterans to get resettled in their

:40:27.:40:30.

communities. When it comes to organising and funding that help,

:40:31.:40:33.

have we struck the right balance between charities and the state?

:40:34.:40:35.

I'm joined from Edinburgh by the Scottish Veterans Commissioner,

:40:36.:40:37.

I am curious to know, your take on this, there seemed ten to their

:40:38.:40:50.

between what Keith Brown was saying, that veterans themselves do not want

:40:51.:40:54.

preferential treatment and the interpretation that some of the

:40:55.:40:58.

former servers personnel had of the Armed Forces Covenant, which is that

:40:59.:41:01.

they should get preferential treatment. What is your

:41:02.:41:07.

understanding? I have spoken to many veterans and people who support them

:41:08.:41:13.

over the last year. The point that they don't want preferential

:41:14.:41:16.

treatment is absolutely spot on. However, you have to acknowledge

:41:17.:41:20.

that the transition process from being in the services, and I think

:41:21.:41:25.

the gentleman in the film used the words "cocooned" to something which

:41:26.:41:30.

is quite stark. In one day, you lose your job, your way of life and you

:41:31.:41:36.

have to find a new way. There is definitely a struggle there. That is

:41:37.:41:42.

where a lot of the stress comes in. We have to look at a balance of what

:41:43.:41:46.

can be provided from the statutory services and the charities, but also

:41:47.:41:53.

from society as a whole. Right. And what is your view about whether

:41:54.:41:57.

we're getting that balance right? Some people in the film seemed to

:41:58.:42:02.

feel as if they had been left on their own. Yes. There is a small

:42:03.:42:07.

number who are seriously affected by the transition process and do need a

:42:08.:42:12.

lot of help. The majority make the transition perfectly well. Either

:42:13.:42:18.

through their own efforts or those of the MoD or local government, the

:42:19.:42:25.

NHS, whatever it happens to be, they help them get through the first

:42:26.:42:30.

hurdle. But there is definitely a group, perhaps featuring some of the

:42:31.:42:33.

individuals in that film, who do need help. There are organisations

:42:34.:42:40.

which provide help. We heard from Govan, but there are other

:42:41.:42:49.

organisations relating to employment issues or mental health aspects, who

:42:50.:42:54.

do provide help. The difficulty is often in getting the message across

:42:55.:42:59.

that these initiatives are in place. I am still not clear on, if it is

:43:00.:43:05.

the case, and you seem to agree with Keith Brown, that the veterans

:43:06.:43:10.

themselves do not want preferential treatment, what difference then is

:43:11.:43:12.

the Armed Forces Covenant supposed to make? The Armed Forces Covenant,

:43:13.:43:19.

and various other documents as well, what they have done is highlighted

:43:20.:43:25.

the difficulties and indeed the advantages of service men in your

:43:26.:43:31.

community. It has brought it into the open that some of them, a small

:43:32.:43:34.

percentage, do have issues, something to do with Chloe ability,

:43:35.:43:44.

mental health, physical problems -- employability. It has opened peoples

:43:45.:43:49.

eyes to the fact that you have this great asset. The vast majority of

:43:50.:43:53.

people who leave the Armed Forces have a huge skill set. This idea of

:43:54.:43:59.

giving service, which is instrumental in the community and

:44:00.:44:05.

workplaces and for the economy. We heard the young man they're saying

:44:06.:44:11.

that there is a problem that in a way, in the Armed Forces, you're

:44:12.:44:14.

institutionalised, you don't really have to take the initiative.

:44:15.:44:19.

Everything on the outside, you have to organise yourself when you leave.

:44:20.:44:27.

You have to pick your life in danger in combat of course but nonetheless,

:44:28.:44:30.

the point being made was it is difficult to come out of that and

:44:31.:44:33.

certainly do everything for yourself in a world that you are perhaps not

:44:34.:44:36.

as familiar with as in a world that you are perhaps not

:44:37.:44:40.

around you. People around you know how to

:44:41.:44:44.

around you. People around you know contact with particular advice

:44:45.:44:46.

local hospital or whatever but you don't know any of that. No, and

:44:47.:44:52.

there are some younger members of the Armed Forces who

:44:53.:44:57.

in their late teens or early 20s, who may well struggle. I make the

:44:58.:45:01.

point that the vast majority do know how to access the public services,

:45:02.:45:05.

point that the vast majority do know the charities, if they need to. The

:45:06.:45:09.

point I would make is that there are a lot of mechanisms in place, some

:45:10.:45:12.

relatively new, which should be a lot of mechanisms in place, some

:45:13.:45:14.

there to make that pathway that bit a lot of mechanisms in place, some

:45:15.:45:18.

smoother, throwing out some of the hurdles they have had to get over in

:45:19.:45:23.

the past. Still along way to go, in particular in areas where we have to

:45:24.:45:26.

pass on information. It is very difficult for some of these

:45:27.:45:31.

individuals to find out what information and support is

:45:32.:45:34.

available. In my first year, I seemed to spend a lot of time trying

:45:35.:45:38.

to recommend and get changes to the way information was chaired, the way

:45:39.:45:42.

knowledge is put out, so that young servicepeople in particular though

:45:43.:45:48.

what they can hook into, by way of local authorities and various other

:45:49.:45:52.

bodies, to really make it clear what is out there for them. More broadly,

:45:53.:46:00.

how do you think the whole poppy movement, Remembrance Sunday thing,

:46:01.:46:05.

will develop over the next ten or 20 years? Sadly, many of the people,

:46:06.:46:11.

originally the whole thing was set up to commemorate, or the living who

:46:12.:46:18.

were helped, but survivors of the Second World War, for example, are

:46:19.:46:22.

no longer with us. Well we still have veterans of places like Iraq

:46:23.:46:24.

and Afghanistan, the numbers are nothing like the kind of numbers of

:46:25.:46:30.

people coming back from conscripted armed service in the Second World

:46:31.:46:34.

War. Do you think the whole nature of the thing will stay the same? Or

:46:35.:46:37.

will it change over the next few years? I think it probably will stay

:46:38.:46:43.

much as it is at the moment. Change is unlikely. The military and

:46:44.:46:49.

commemoration process is a fairly conservative thing. I have just come

:46:50.:46:57.

back from Saint Giles this morning, where the late wreaths and had a

:46:58.:47:06.

two-minute silence. A lot of young people there were involved in

:47:07.:47:10.

service. The contribution that they have made, whether it is recent wars

:47:11.:47:17.

like Afghanistan or something in the Falklands, or in the Second World

:47:18.:47:22.

War, I think that will endure. I am at pains to do in my role, as

:47:23.:47:29.

Commissioner, is to make the point to anyone who will listen that we

:47:30.:47:32.

really have a huge asset. All of these people who have served in our

:47:33.:47:36.

Armed Forces over many years, men and women, and their spouses, really

:47:37.:47:41.

do contribute a huge amount. You may not see them in society but they are

:47:42.:47:45.

there. I really do think we could be making more of that. Perhaps making

:47:46.:47:49.

more of a song and dance about it at times. But at the end of the day, I

:47:50.:47:53.

believe do think the public in Scotland respect and want to

:47:54.:47:56.

acknowledge the sacrifice that so many people have made over so many

:47:57.:48:01.

years. Packs us. Thank you very much indeed.

:48:02.:48:04.

Words we hear used all the time in public and political life.

:48:05.:48:09.

But what do they really mean, and how do we do these things well?

:48:10.:48:12.

Someone with plenty of views on the subject is Susan Deacon.

:48:13.:48:15.

Her career's taken her from Government, as Scotland's first

:48:16.:48:17.

health minister after devolution, to the private sector and academia.

:48:18.:48:19.

And she's just become the new Chair of the Institute of Directors

:48:20.:48:22.

in Scotland - the first woman to hold the role.

:48:23.:48:25.

She joins us now from our Edinburgh studio.

:48:26.:48:30.

Susan Deacon, an obvious first question, why do you want to do

:48:31.:48:36.

this? My passion and interest over 30 years, throughout my career, has

:48:37.:48:40.

been about how we can have effective leadership in Scotland, how we can

:48:41.:48:44.

make our country a better place and work together to do that. The

:48:45.:48:49.

Institute of directors in Scotland is a growing organisation that

:48:50.:48:51.

brings together some 2000 leaders from right across businesses, big

:48:52.:48:56.

and small, the charitable sector, the public sector, it really is a

:48:57.:48:59.

fantastic gathering place for that leadership community to grow and

:49:00.:49:04.

develop. I am proud to take on this role as it's Chair. Despite the

:49:05.:49:11.

reconciliation between business and Blairism that went on after 1997, it

:49:12.:49:17.

is not immediately obvious why a former Labour minister would want to

:49:18.:49:24.

run an organisation which, in the past, I think it was fair to say,

:49:25.:49:29.

was seen as somewhat to the right of the CBI? There is a diverse mix of

:49:30.:49:36.

people in the organisation with all sorts of different political views

:49:37.:49:40.

and number. The organisation itself is strictly nonparty political. I

:49:41.:49:45.

have been like a cracked record for many years, to say that we have to

:49:46.:49:48.

get better at working across boundaries. Weather across sectors

:49:49.:49:57.

or parties, universities and business and Government... Having

:49:58.:50:03.

organisations like the eye of the that can join some of those dots and

:50:04.:50:07.

look at how in Scotland we can work together to bring about the change

:50:08.:50:11.

that we all want to see. It is important. If we're going to have an

:50:12.:50:15.

effect of transport infrastructure, the skills we need for the future,

:50:16.:50:19.

vibrant businesses, big and small, that means we must work together. We

:50:20.:50:25.

are small country. All too often, he pulls it and point the finger at

:50:26.:50:28.

others. We need to be around the table, not across it, if we're make

:50:29.:50:40.

a difference. Why do they want you? You would need to ask others why

:50:41.:50:44.

they want me. I would like to think the pretty eclectic mix of

:50:45.:50:47.

leadership roles I've had over the years gives me a capability to head

:50:48.:50:53.

up the organisation as its chair, but also to build some of the

:50:54.:50:56.

much-needed connectivity we need here in Scotland and a crass our

:50:57.:51:01.

leadership. I'd like to be a team player and what is nice about an

:51:02.:51:05.

organisation is that it is individuals who choose to be part of

:51:06.:51:09.

it, who want to work with others to develop themselves, their

:51:10.:51:14.

organisations, and in the main I think they are strongly motivated by

:51:15.:51:17.

wanting to make Scotland a better place. The stuff that you are saying

:51:18.:51:24.

earlier. A lot of people listen to that and think it sounds terribly

:51:25.:51:30.

grand but vague as well. Specifically, your ideal collecting

:51:31.:51:34.

people together and showing leadership, realistically, what

:51:35.:51:39.

could the IOD do, or I'll organisations like the IOD, that

:51:40.:51:43.

they're not doing? In specific terms. I have often said, including

:51:44.:51:50.

back when I was in Parliament, that you can have all the fancy

:51:51.:51:55.

strategies in the world, all the great plans and analysis and

:51:56.:52:00.

statistics you like, but unless you actually have... The government you

:52:01.:52:04.

were part of what is good at producing grand plans. I have the

:52:05.:52:09.

agreed, and one of the lessons I learned was about the limitations of

:52:10.:52:14.

top down government action, and I have criticised as being over relied

:52:15.:52:18.

on that. That was very much from that experience was if you take

:52:19.:52:22.

something like the skills gaps we have in Scotland, we have had no end

:52:23.:52:26.

of reports, we have agencies and expert groups, the kind of skills

:52:27.:52:31.

will need in the future, whether in our care sector or the IT sector, in

:52:32.:52:37.

engineering, get the amount of analysis we have done is not the

:52:38.:52:40.

portion of the two the amount of action we have had done. I accept it

:52:41.:52:46.

is not the stuff of headlines, but we need to have employees working

:52:47.:52:51.

hand-in-hand with colleges and universities, making sure the

:52:52.:52:56.

courses on offer at the ones that will equip people better for the

:52:57.:53:01.

future. Just on that. As it happens, I was speaking to people in the IOD,

:53:02.:53:05.

and what they were saying is that there is a problem now in certain

:53:06.:53:09.

areas that the world is changing so fast, courses are not giving up word

:53:10.:53:16.

so the problem is not generalities about getting people into colleges,

:53:17.:53:22.

it is that even if they are in there doing marketing, for instance, the

:53:23.:53:26.

world is changing faster than their courses. Is that what you are

:53:27.:53:32.

thinking that the IOD complainer rolling? Exactly. We live in a world

:53:33.:53:37.

where the only certainty is uncertainty. The generation, the now

:53:38.:53:41.

have to be flexible and adaptable, and those who provide education and

:53:42.:53:43.

training to them how to make sure and those who provide education and

:53:44.:53:47.

they fleet of foot and are moving with the times for the world around

:53:48.:53:53.

us. As I say, you do that I having fancy policy statements, you do it

:53:54.:53:57.

by making sure employers and education providers are working

:53:58.:54:02.

together day to day. It is not the stuff that grabs headlines, but it

:54:03.:54:06.

is the stuff that makes a difference. We said you were the

:54:07.:54:15.

first woman chair of IOD Scotland. Do you... There is a problem with

:54:16.:54:19.

women in public life in Scotland. There are many women in leading

:54:20.:54:24.

positions in Scotland, but my sense is not as much as down south. I

:54:25.:54:27.

don't know, is not as much as down south. I

:54:28.:54:31.

you look at the political leadership in Scotland, women are very much in

:54:32.:54:37.

the ascendancy. If you look at a host of businesses in Scotland you

:54:38.:54:41.

will see a growing number of women leaders. They are at the helm, both

:54:42.:54:46.

in executive roles and in our boardrooms as non-executives. But

:54:47.:54:51.

there needs to be more. It should not be an exercise about numbers.

:54:52.:54:54.

there needs to be more. It should Women, more than anyone, we want to

:54:55.:54:59.

be sure we are doing the jobs we do on merit and recognise full is that

:55:00.:55:08.

discussion about diversity, it is not just about numbers, it is not

:55:09.:55:13.

making sure our boardrooms have the skills and ability to do the job. We

:55:14.:55:21.

are making progress, but we have 2 do more work. OK, we will leave it

:55:22.:55:23.

there now. I'm joined by Shabnum Mustapha,

:55:24.:55:30.

who was a special adviser to the Liberal Democrats in government, and

:55:31.:55:33.

by Paul Hutcheon, the Investigations Shabnum, let's talk rubbish tax

:55:34.:55:48.

credits Raoul. What do you make of it? I find it bizarre that the SNP

:55:49.:55:53.

did not know there were powers coming through that would allow them

:55:54.:55:58.

to top it up, but they... They would say they could not know about the

:55:59.:56:05.

amendments until they saw the amendments. Everyone else seemed to

:56:06.:56:09.

be aware of it. The SNP were playing catch up and it was embarrassing for

:56:10.:56:13.

Alex Neill in the middle of the six minute speech having to make a

:56:14.:56:17.

U-turn about what they can and can't do with new powers coming forward in

:56:18.:56:21.

the bill. At the same time this week, they seemed clear on their

:56:22.:56:26.

demands for powers in Scotland to hold another referendum. It seems to

:56:27.:56:32.

be that it is odd... You heard what John Swinney was saying, they will

:56:33.:56:37.

help the low paid and worst. The issue is that they have had to be

:56:38.:56:43.

tried into this. It is quite an usual for the SNP to be on the back

:56:44.:56:47.

foot. They should have been there from the start saying no matter what

:56:48.:56:51.

happens at Westminster, people in Scotland who lie on these tax

:56:52.:56:57.

credits will be no worse off. They should have been front putting this.

:56:58.:57:02.

Instead they are on the back foot and scrambling around. Do you agree

:57:03.:57:07.

with that, Paul Hutcheon? I was trying to suggest that the SNP is

:57:08.:57:12.

that they are anti-austerities, and Shabnum says they should be saying,

:57:13.:57:20.

we should do this and that. But they are saying, I can't say until I get

:57:21.:57:26.

the budgets. I agree the SNP have been on the back but in this issue.

:57:27.:57:31.

There is a brutal political reality underpinning this. Labour will not

:57:32.:57:35.

win the election, so they can afford to make adventurous and bold

:57:36.:57:40.

spending commitment on tax credits, because they know they would be in

:57:41.:57:44.

the position to implement it. The SNP will win the election, so what

:57:45.:57:47.

ever they say on tax credits, they're going to have to deliver on

:57:48.:57:51.

it. They will have to find the money. That explains their

:57:52.:57:58.

reluctance. One criticism of labour, I presume, is that they are saying

:57:59.:58:03.

it might appeal to people affected by the tax credit cuts, but Middle

:58:04.:58:07.

Scotland might say, we quite like the idea of the tax changes George

:58:08.:58:13.

Osborne is bringing in. There has been good politics from the Scottish

:58:14.:58:16.

Labour Party and that they are showing that this dwindling thing.

:58:17.:58:21.

But where is the money going to come from? They say they won't raise

:58:22.:58:27.

taxes on middle income earners, it would push ahead with cuts and

:58:28.:58:32.

fiddle with tax bands. There are questions over that. Given that

:58:33.:58:37.

Labour would win the election, they won't be subjected to too many

:58:38.:58:41.

detailed questions, it will all be about what the SNP will do. You can

:58:42.:58:46.

understand the SNP wearing about these things. I bet you don't find

:58:47.:58:50.

the Lib Dems are rushing to say they don't think people should not gain

:58:51.:58:56.

from the changes. In government you how to make difficult decisions, but

:58:57.:59:01.

on welfare, the Lib Dems have made it clear they won't introduce

:59:02.:59:05.

sweeping reforms that George Osborne wanted. We block them in government.

:59:06.:59:08.

The SNP should have been front putting this issue. What about Paul

:59:09.:59:17.

Hutcheon's point. John Swinney says it will cost ?400 million if the

:59:18.:59:21.

situation were as now. Where will they find the money from? You don't

:59:22.:59:25.

have the worry of about that in opposition. As Paul offline, Labour

:59:26.:59:30.

have made those choices as to whether money will come from. The

:59:31.:59:35.

SNP can find the money at the will is there. So you have to question

:59:36.:59:38.

where their political will is there in helping the brewer in Scotland.

:59:39.:59:44.

Someone else would just come up is David Cameron getting tough on

:59:45.:59:50.

Europe. Come on's exit warning on EU reform will stop he will tell they

:59:51.:59:54.

might generally leave the EU if he does not get what he wants for some

:59:55.:59:59.

credible? No, it is a blood which people will see through. It has the

:00:00.:00:04.

makings of a quagmire for the Prime Minister. I can't see anything he

:00:05.:00:10.

can bring back that will persuade his Eurosceptic colleagues. Even

:00:11.:00:14.

more importantly, even if he does bring back powers, there's no

:00:15.:00:17.

guarantee that if the referendum is successful for the Prime Minister,

:00:18.:00:21.

that these governed will sign of two and agree to it. You might have a

:00:22.:00:25.

change of government it one of the eastern European countries and they

:00:26.:00:28.

won't back. You have governments that are accountable to their own

:00:29.:00:33.

electorates, not to the UK. I think he is getting sucked into a

:00:34.:00:37.

situation he can't control and has been left with headlines like this

:00:38.:00:40.

which are bluffing. He might mean it. I'm not sure. One of the

:00:41.:00:47.

proposals that he has come forward with is to ban migrants from

:00:48.:00:51.

claiming benefits for four years. Even his own Cabinet Secretary has

:00:52.:00:55.

told them it is illegal under EU law. He will fail at the first

:00:56.:00:59.

hurdle on that one. You how to astral self, where is he going with

:01:00.:01:03.

it? Will he have to campaign leaving the EU question what I did think it

:01:04.:01:08.

is what he wants or George Osborne. They have not properly thought this

:01:09.:01:14.

out, and it a mess. Adding to the mix that with Davidson has said

:01:15.:01:19.

exquisitely that she wants to stay in the EU -- Ruth Davison. It is

:01:20.:01:26.

incongruent with saying I might leave if I don't get what I want. On

:01:27.:01:32.

face value there is difference, but everyone expects the Prime Minister

:01:33.:01:36.

to be arguing for Britain's placed in the EU. No one expect him to beat

:01:37.:01:40.

campaigning for an exit abode. He is trying to ramp up the rhetoric, give

:01:41.:01:44.

the impression this is what he wants. No one expects him to be

:01:45.:01:52.

serious. What about Syria? It is bubbling under the issue. One figure

:01:53.:01:57.

saying you are letting down allies by not bombing Syria, but the

:01:58.:02:04.

government saying they would intend to go back to the House of Commons

:02:05.:02:07.

but only when the mood is right. What do you make of these

:02:08.:02:11.

developments? The mood is not there, the mood is not the amongst all the

:02:12.:02:15.

political parties, including the Conservative side. We saw foreign

:02:16.:02:21.

affairs select committee report, which the majority of Conservative

:02:22.:02:25.

MPs said the case has not been made for military intervention. The focus

:02:26.:02:29.

should be more on coming up with a kind of regional solution, bringing

:02:30.:02:32.

in people from across the Middle East together to try and come up

:02:33.:02:36.

with a more peaceful solution. And also taking in refugees who are in

:02:37.:02:43.

with a more peaceful solution. And not doing. You can see the twin fun

:02:44.:02:48.

tree people, because it is almost part of the definition of what

:02:49.:02:58.

Islamic State is -- you can see the argument. The argument is that, they

:02:59.:03:03.

don't recognise these bodies, yet we are making some artificial

:03:04.:03:03.

distinction. are making some artificial

:03:04.:03:17.

-- has happened. You then have the are making some artificial

:03:18.:03:22.

intervention of Russia. It is a complex situation. The political

:03:23.:03:24.

mood is not there, so complex situation. The political

:03:25.:03:27.

focus efforts on other complex situation. The political

:03:28.:03:31.

military. You can't Sunday Politics is back in a

:03:32.:03:39.

fortnight at the usual time, 11am.

:03:40.:03:43.

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