22/11/2015 Sunday Politics Scotland


22/11/2015

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by Lord Nigel Lawson and Caroline Flint MP.


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Could British war planes be in action over the skies of Syria

:00:36.:00:41.

Later this week, David Cameron sets out his strategy

:00:42.:00:45.

George Osborne says all Whitehall departments have agreed to cuts

:00:46.:00:55.

as he gears up for his spending review this week.

:00:56.:00:58.

We speak to one of his Conservative predecessors.

:00:59.:01:02.

And it's been a pretty rough week for the Labour Party.

:01:03.:01:05.

With his MPs in mutinous mood, how can Jeremy Corbyn steady the ship?

:01:06.:01:12.

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland:

:01:13.:01:13.

As the UN backs a resolution on tackling IS,

:01:14.:01:16.

will the SNP and Labour support David Cameron's strategy here?

:01:17.:01:30.

And with me - as always - the best and the brightest political

:01:31.:01:33.

They pay me to say it, so I am happy to do so.

:01:34.:01:43.

Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh - who'll be tweeting

:01:44.:01:46.

Following the terror attacks in Paris, President Hollande has

:01:47.:01:49.

embarked on putting together a Grand Coalition to defeat Islamic State in

:01:50.:01:52.

Syria, involving the UN, America, Russia and, naturally, Britain.

:01:53.:01:54.

The British Government is keen to join but faces the little problem

:01:55.:01:57.

Later this week, David Cameron will present

:01:58.:02:00.

his Syrian strategy to Parliament in the hope it will command a majority

:02:01.:02:03.

Here's what the Chancellor had to say on the Marr Show earlier,

:02:04.:02:11.

This week, we are going to step up our diplomatic efforts,

:02:12.:02:13.

our humanitarian efforts, and make the case for a greater

:02:14.:02:16.

The Prime Minister will seek support across Parliament

:02:17.:02:23.

for strikes against that terrorist organisation in Syria and frankly

:02:24.:02:28.

Britain has never been a country which stands on the sidelines

:02:29.:02:30.

Nick, am I right in thinking that you can see now the makings, the

:02:31.:02:46.

putting together, of majority for the Prime

:02:47.:02:54.

putting together, of majority for in Syria? They are being reasonably

:02:55.:02:56.

cautious that they are pretty in Syria? They are being reasonably

:02:57.:03:00.

confident that, even now, they have the numbers. Three big things have

:03:01.:03:03.

happened since three weeks ago when the Prime Minister was indicating he

:03:04.:03:08.

was unlikely to have a vote. Paris has changed everything. Jeremy

:03:09.:03:12.

Corbyn has had a challenging week. Thirdly, the Prime Minister has said

:03:13.:03:16.

he will set out the comprehensive strategy. Labour MPs who said they

:03:17.:03:21.

would like to support him have said they could not do it unless there

:03:22.:03:26.

was a comprehensive strategy. It is also turning Tory MPs can lead by

:03:27.:03:31.

Crispin Blunt, who would have voted against. He is now indicating he

:03:32.:03:37.

possibly will vote for this. DUP, Nigel Dodds, who has eight MPs

:03:38.:03:43.

possibly will vote for this. DUP, if the Prime Minister set this

:03:44.:03:46.

out... It looks like the numbers are there. We did here this morning that

:03:47.:03:52.

the BBC reported the DUP with back the Prime Minister if what he had to

:03:53.:03:57.

say was credible. We are told the Tory rebels are about 15 and Labour

:03:58.:04:02.

rebels thinking of voting with the Government or abstaining could be as

:04:03.:04:05.

high as 50. What is your intelligence? A huge number, from

:04:06.:04:12.

very senior people as well. Actually the number of senior people leaving,

:04:13.:04:17.

exiting the Shadow Cabinet, I think a challenging week would be an

:04:18.:04:22.

understatement. It is at a whole new level. There is only so much time

:04:23.:04:28.

you can buy with free votes. Jeremy Corbyn opposes the party policy.

:04:29.:04:33.

This time he would set his own policy but no 1 would come with him.

:04:34.:04:37.

How many times can you play that trick before people say this is a

:04:38.:04:40.

loose conglomeration of individuals and not a party? Do you think he

:04:41.:04:49.

would go for a free vote? Maria Eagle has just published a paper

:04:50.:04:54.

which is very hawkish. Hilary Benn has been making noises about this.

:04:55.:04:59.

Who is there to support, apart from John McDonnell, in this position? He

:05:00.:05:05.

is very isolated on this. The problem for the Prime Minister is,

:05:06.:05:09.

in a sense he gets what he wishes for. We begin joining others in

:05:10.:05:13.

bombing and things do not really changed in Syria. I do not think the

:05:14.:05:19.

House of Commons is the primary obstacle facing David Cameron. I

:05:20.:05:22.

think he will get the votes could not see much because of the case he

:05:23.:05:26.

will make later this week but because what happened in the last

:05:27.:05:33.

week. They focused on all necessary measures and use combat as a

:05:34.:05:37.

metaphor, but a deliberate metaphor, I think. The biggest problem is not

:05:38.:05:42.

the Parliamentary vote for David Cameron, it is the diplomatic

:05:43.:05:44.

struggle to agree with Russia exactly how we go about this. Russia

:05:45.:05:49.

are happy to bomb in Syria against Isil but they are not happy to do so

:05:50.:05:54.

in a way which, in their words, destroys the statehood of Syria

:05:55.:05:57.

which alludes to their traditional support for the existing Syrian

:05:58.:06:04.

state and basher al-Assad. The politics is far more challenging

:06:05.:06:08.

than the technical act of getting the votes together. That is the

:06:09.:06:17.

problem. What is the endgame? Transition can sometimes take a long

:06:18.:06:19.

time. A very long transition. On Wednesday, Chancellor Osborne

:06:20.:06:24.

will announce the Government's Over the next five years, they

:06:25.:06:26.

will total ?4 trillion. But even to stay within that barely

:06:27.:06:30.

imaginable sum of money, Mr Osborne will have to continue to cut

:06:31.:06:33.

departmental and welfare spending. Hence the mantra you will hear this

:06:34.:06:35.

week of "a country that lives within its means" - in other words more of

:06:36.:06:41.

a squeeze on many public services. The Chancellor wants government

:06:42.:06:45.

departments to find a further ?20 billion worth

:06:46.:06:46.

of savings between now and 2020. So, where could that money come

:06:47.:06:51.

from? Welcome to our virtual Treasury

:06:52.:06:54.

courtyard. Now, they don't have one of these

:06:55.:07:00.

in the real courtyard but it represents everything the

:07:01.:07:02.

Government is due to spend this year I'm going to start by highlighting

:07:03.:07:07.

a few of the most significant parts You can see the ?217 billion

:07:08.:07:15.

which goes on Social Security. That includes everything

:07:16.:07:21.

from jobseeker's allowance to There is the ?35 billion

:07:22.:07:25.

the UK is due to spend this year And George Osborne says that's

:07:26.:07:31.

a figure he is determined to bring Now,

:07:32.:07:38.

the focus of his statement is the money which goes on administering

:07:39.:07:42.

and delivering public services. Here it is,

:07:43.:07:45.

and you can see it's just under half We are going to delve into

:07:46.:07:51.

the budgets of a few of the most It is the NHS which accounts

:07:52.:07:56.

for the biggest chunk The Chancellor is not going to find

:07:57.:08:03.

any of his savings here because he has promised to increase

:08:04.:08:09.

NHS funding in England by ?10 The Government's also promised

:08:10.:08:12.

a real terms increase That is part of its commitment to

:08:13.:08:21.

meeting the Nato target of spending The Government is also committed to

:08:22.:08:27.

spending 0.7% of GDP on overseas aid - meaning that

:08:28.:08:36.

budget is also protected. So, the Chancellor is not going to

:08:37.:08:42.

find any of his ?20 billion of savings he says he needs to make

:08:43.:08:45.

from either health, defence or aid. So, where could it come from

:08:46.:08:51.

instead? What about

:08:52.:08:53.

from the education budget? That is a big part of what the

:08:54.:08:56.

state spends on public services. Here

:08:57.:09:00.

the Conservatives have promised a That means savings

:09:01.:09:01.

from here will be limited. Although the rest of the budget does

:09:02.:09:09.

not have any guaranteed protection. Here is the money that goes

:09:10.:09:13.

to English local authorities. This was one of the first

:09:14.:09:17.

departments to agree to big savings Let's look at the Home Office whose

:09:18.:09:20.

budget this year is ?10.6 billion. The single biggest thing

:09:21.:09:29.

Theresa May's department spends money on is the grant it gives to

:09:30.:09:32.

police forces in England and Wales. Although they also get some of their

:09:33.:09:37.

money from other sources including And some of the other departments

:09:38.:09:40.

which are going to have to find big savings over the next four years are

:09:41.:09:48.

the departments of business, But let's go back to that big part

:09:49.:09:57.

of government spending I mentioned Because

:09:58.:10:05.

of course that is where a lot of the focus has been in the weeks

:10:06.:10:07.

and months before this statement. Again here there is plenty

:10:08.:10:11.

the Chancellor will not touch. The state pension is

:10:12.:10:13.

a massive part of the budget. But the Government has

:10:14.:10:16.

a long-standing promise not to cut it along with various pensioner

:10:17.:10:19.

benefits. The other areas of big spending

:10:20.:10:24.

the Government has had to look to are housing benefit, disability

:10:25.:10:27.

benefits and incapacity benefits. And, you can see that big sum

:10:28.:10:35.

of money, ?30 billion, which is due to be spent

:10:36.:10:38.

on personal tax credits this year. So, the Chancellor faces some tricky

:10:39.:10:44.

trade-offs on Wednesday Paul Johnson from the Institute

:10:45.:10:54.

of Fiscal Studies has some ideas. Paul, welcome back to the programme.

:10:55.:11:07.

Let's start with this tricky question of tax credits. What is the

:11:08.:11:12.

Chancellor, in your view, most likely to do? He has two big

:11:13.:11:18.

choices. He can decide not to make any cuts, or much in the wake of

:11:19.:11:23.

cuts, next April. That is what all of the bus has been about, the cuts

:11:24.:11:28.

that will come in next April. -- the fuss. Most of the savings will come

:11:29.:11:34.

in the long run full he has also announced the new universal credit

:11:35.:11:40.

system will be much less generous than he was originally intending. In

:11:41.:11:44.

five or ten years time, even if he does not put the cut scene he was

:11:45.:11:47.

planning in April, he will still make much the same level of saving

:11:48.:11:52.

for them if he does that, his spending in 2016 on welfare benefits

:11:53.:11:55.

will be ?4 billion or so higher than he was planning and he will bust his

:11:56.:12:01.

own welfare cap, the cap he has legislated, which assumes he will

:12:02.:12:05.

make those savings. That is one option. The other option is

:12:06.:12:11.

make those savings. That is one maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits

:12:12.:12:15.

that have some savings and maybe reduce the cuts to tax credits

:12:16.:12:18.

elsewhere in the welfare budget to make up the rest of the savings.

:12:19.:12:27.

elsewhere in the welfare budget to cost money, certainly in the short

:12:28.:12:27.

run. His deficit cost money, certainly in the short

:12:28.:12:31.

the ship is already in some trouble. He faces huge pressures to

:12:32.:12:36.

spend more on everything from health to Social Security. -- for this year

:12:37.:12:43.

is already in some trouble. The first thing to

:12:44.:12:43.

is already in some trouble. The surplus in 2020, there is a

:12:44.:12:48.

is already in some trouble. The amount of uncertainty about where we

:12:49.:12:51.

will be. Forecasting these things by view ad is an extreme you tricky and

:12:52.:12:56.

uncertain business. Ignoring that, assuming the whole world moves as he

:12:57.:13:01.

expects over the next few years, he will require cuts of about 25% in

:13:02.:13:05.

those unprotected apartments we have just heard about the Home Office,

:13:06.:13:09.

local government, and so on, on top of the cuts that happened during the

:13:10.:13:16.

last parliament will Boyd -- involve really sharp cuts between 2010 and

:13:17.:13:21.

2020. They are big changes to the way which we will deliver local

:13:22.:13:24.

Gottman and the way we will be delivering police force, the way we

:13:25.:13:29.

will be delivering further education and so on. Those areas of government

:13:30.:13:33.

will change fundamentally over the decade. Let me get these right. When

:13:34.:13:39.

you add up all the cuts, those made in those about to happen, between

:13:40.:13:44.

20102020, major departments, the unprotected ones, will face cuts of

:13:45.:13:56.

up to 40%. -- between 2010-2020. Is it doable? That is a good question.

:13:57.:14:00.

It may not turn up that badly if the economy does better than expected

:14:01.:14:04.

all the Chancellor finds some additional savings in Social

:14:05.:14:08.

Security, or he does not aim for the 10 million surplus and goes for a 1

:14:09.:14:14.

billion surplus. -- 10 billion. If he does go down that route, it will

:14:15.:14:21.

be more difficult than it was in the last parliament. If there were easy

:14:22.:14:25.

cuts to have made, they will have been made already. Do not forget one

:14:26.:14:29.

of the biggest bits of public spending goes on the pay of people

:14:30.:14:34.

who work in the public sector, the pay of nurses, teachers and civil

:14:35.:14:38.

servants and so on. That was quite easy to hold down over the last

:14:39.:14:42.

parliament. Pay in the private sector was doing so badly. We

:14:43.:14:47.

expect, almost economists now expect that pay in the private sector will

:14:48.:14:52.

rise well to be strongly. In that world it will be quite hard to hold

:14:53.:14:59.

down pay right across the public sector, as he said he would do back

:15:00.:15:01.

in the July budget. Joining me now Nigel Lawson,

:15:02.:15:03.

Margaret Thatcher's longest serving Welcome back to the programme. Thank

:15:04.:15:13.

you, I enjoyed your rant the other day. It was not a rant, it was a

:15:14.:15:16.

carefully scripted commentary but thank you for your remarks. Let me

:15:17.:15:21.

take an overall review on the Chancellor 's position. The

:15:22.:15:27.

borrowing figures for October were pretty bad, looks like he will

:15:28.:15:34.

overshoot this year 's borrowing. Is the austerity programme in trouble

:15:35.:15:40.

again? It is difficult, he has a difficult time because of these

:15:41.:15:45.

ridiculous protected programmes which should not exist. Aid is going

:15:46.:15:50.

up again and again, the Nobel Prize for economics has been given to an

:15:51.:15:57.

English economist, he is Scottish in fact, and one of his principal

:15:58.:16:02.

findings, he is a great expert on global poverty and one of his major

:16:03.:16:08.

findings is that overseas aid although well-intentioned does more

:16:09.:16:11.

harm than good. Yet that is going up and up. He has got a tough time but

:16:12.:16:18.

it can be done. When I was Chancellor I was able to balance the

:16:19.:16:22.

budget and get it into surplus and he has to do it as well. He has huge

:16:23.:16:30.

pressure on security, the police, the NHS, we were just talking about

:16:31.:16:35.

mitigating cuts on the tax credit side, these are all hard to resist

:16:36.:16:40.

in the current atmosphere. It is going to be very difficult and

:16:41.:16:45.

although I suspect it will mainly be cuts in savings in public spending I

:16:46.:16:49.

think he will have to do more on the tax side than he would have liked.

:16:50.:16:53.

There is some logic in that, for example it looks as if, Paul Johnson

:16:54.:16:59.

was seeing, or maybe it was you, but he is likely to some extent to defer

:17:00.:17:05.

the cutting of the tax credits. It's quite right to take a knife to the

:17:06.:17:11.

tax credits, they have grown far too much and are undesirable in their

:17:12.:17:15.

present size. But nonetheless what he did propose originally was a bit

:17:16.:17:19.

too much for some and therefore he has got to delay it a bit. But when

:17:20.:17:25.

he presented, he presented a package including raising income tax

:17:26.:17:29.

threshold. He could, as part of the package delay that a little bit and

:17:30.:17:35.

help on the tax side. The government has always said it will do all the

:17:36.:17:40.

heavy lifting, the heavy lifting will be done by cuts in spending

:17:41.:17:44.

rather than increasing taxes. Will he now have to look at increasing

:17:45.:17:49.

some taxes are hats at a time of low oil prices on fuel duty? I think

:17:50.:17:53.

that's a good suggestion and it is sensible to do that. But defer a

:17:54.:18:02.

reduction which he might find less... Yes but might he have to

:18:03.:18:07.

look at some tax rises? I think you should look at the fuel duty, yes.

:18:08.:18:13.

President Hollande has said that national security comes before

:18:14.:18:19.

deficit reduction, he has sidelined the fiscal pact he has with the rest

:18:20.:18:25.

of Europe. He plans a huge increase in security spending, 17,000 more

:18:26.:18:29.

police and border guards and other security personnel. Will the British

:18:30.:18:34.

be looking at George Osborne to do something similar next week?

:18:35.:18:38.

President Hollande has never been keen on deficit-reduction in the

:18:39.:18:42.

first place. It's not unconnected with the fact as well that the

:18:43.:18:45.

French economy, and I live in France, the French economy is in a

:18:46.:18:53.

bad way. We are doing much better. Security is important but the

:18:54.:18:55.

government has said very clearly that it is going to be keeping to

:18:56.:19:03.

the 2% target, 2% of GDP on defence spending, something France is not

:19:04.:19:07.

doing even though it has considerable defence expenditure.

:19:08.:19:12.

The leaked letter from one of the most senior police officers to the

:19:13.:19:16.

Home Secretary says cuts to police budgets could reduce very

:19:17.:19:20.

significantly the ability to respond to a Paris style attack. The

:19:21.:19:25.

Chancellor is going to be under pressure to make security more

:19:26.:19:27.

important than deficit-reduction. pressure to make security more

:19:28.:19:30.

Certainly for the foreseeable future. Security is essential. It is

:19:31.:19:37.

vital. But I think the police are complaining a little bit too much.

:19:38.:19:40.

Look how much the police are spending now on chasing up often

:19:41.:19:48.

unsubstantiated accusations of historic sex abuse. That has got

:19:49.:19:52.

nothing to do with security. Those resources should be put where they

:19:53.:19:56.

need is. I think also what the police need is not just money, and

:19:57.:20:01.

the security services to, they need intelligence. I think it would make

:20:02.:20:05.

a lot of sense and what I would like to see the government doing is to

:20:06.:20:09.

expedite the passage of the investigatory Powers Bill which is

:20:10.:20:18.

long overdue and badly needed. In this climate you accept that cutting

:20:19.:20:24.

the top rate of income tax back to the 40% that you originally

:20:25.:20:28.

introduced, that that is politically impossible for the foreseeable

:20:29.:20:32.

future? It depends how far you can proceed. I would hope that during

:20:33.:20:37.

this parliament it can be done. It is politically difficult but there

:20:38.:20:42.

is no budgetary reason against it. When I cut it it increased revenue

:20:43.:20:46.

and it would do so again. The cap which George Osborne has already

:20:47.:20:51.

done in the last parliament from 50, 245 even though the Liberal

:20:52.:20:55.

Democrats he did it and it raised money and didn't cost anything. To

:20:56.:21:02.

be cutting police numbers, to be struggling to find money for the

:21:03.:21:06.

NHS, to be doing something for the working poor on tax credits, making

:21:07.:21:11.

life a bit more difficult for them but then to be cutting the top rate

:21:12.:21:17.

of the highest earners? That is why I don't think you can be doing it

:21:18.:21:21.

now that you were asking about the foreseeable future. You still think

:21:22.:21:25.

he can do it before the end of this Parliament? Yes I do. On Europe, how

:21:26.:21:32.

confident are you feeling about winning the referendum to withdraw?

:21:33.:21:39.

Nobody can call a referendum. It is difficult enough sometimes to call a

:21:40.:21:41.

general election and referendums are even harder to call. Logically I

:21:42.:21:47.

don't think he will do it. Logically David Cameron ought to be

:21:48.:21:54.

campaigning to leave because what he said at the beginning was he was

:21:55.:21:57.

dissatisfied with the European Union as it is. He wanted a fundamental

:21:58.:22:04.

reform to be enshrined in treaty change. Then stay in a reformed

:22:05.:22:11.

European Union. There is not going to be a reformed European Union.

:22:12.:22:16.

There will not be a treaty change. What the referendum is going to be

:22:17.:22:21.

about is if you want to stay in or leave and an reform European Union.

:22:22.:22:24.

So logically he ought to say leave and that is where I am because if it

:22:25.:22:29.

in it. So even if the primer Mr was in it. So even if the primer Mr was

:22:30.:22:33.

to get all his renegotiation demands such as we know them it would not

:22:34.:22:48.

change your mind on coming out? No, if he demanded a lot more and got

:22:49.:22:51.

it, major reforms which I have written about but I don't have time

:22:52.:22:54.

to go into no, I think it would be welcomed right across the European

:22:55.:23:02.

Union. This is not the view of the majority of the people, but we

:23:03.:23:05.

cannot tell the rest of the countries what to do, all we can say

:23:06.:23:10.

is what we are going to do. As we get closer to the referendum date,

:23:11.:23:13.

we don't know when it will be but when we get closer to it being

:23:14.:23:18.

announced, in terms of who seem to be the major figure who leads your

:23:19.:23:23.

side of the referendum campaign, if not Nigel Farage, who? Certainly not

:23:24.:23:33.

Nigel Farage. I think the people who want to stay in have put up a

:23:34.:23:40.

businessman. Stewart draws. Not a particularly captivating

:23:41.:23:46.

businessman. Who will be the equivalent? I have no idea, but we

:23:47.:23:50.

will wait and see but it certainly won't be Nigel Farage. He will be an

:23:51.:23:58.

important player. Why not? Because Ukip has just one member of

:23:59.:24:04.

Parliament. We are a parliamentary democracy and the majority party is

:24:05.:24:07.

the Conservative Party. Nigel Lawson, thank you for being with us.

:24:08.:24:10.

Thank you. It's been a pretty torrid week

:24:11.:24:13.

for the Labour Party. Splits on everything

:24:14.:24:15.

from how to deal with terrorists to Trident, to Ken Livingstone,

:24:16.:24:18.

culminating in a bizarre row about whether or not the Shadow

:24:19.:24:20.

Chancellor wants to scrap MI5. John McDonnell insists Britain's

:24:21.:24:23.

spies are safe in his hands, though he did admit that

:24:24.:24:25.

his party has had a "rough week". It is the week that Jeremy Corbyn

:24:26.:24:28.

and his party grappled with issues In the wake of the Paris attacks,

:24:29.:24:34.

the Labour leader said he was not happy with the idea

:24:35.:24:40.

of police officers shooting to kill on British streets, which led to

:24:41.:24:44.

a very stormy party meeting, So, you tweeted, "please tell me it

:24:45.:24:47.

is not true that Jeremy just said, faced with Kalashnikov-wielding

:24:48.:24:56.

genocidal fascists, our security I,

:24:57.:24:58.

along with millions of Labour voters in this country, were very concerned

:24:59.:25:06.

by the interview that Jeremy gave. Thankfully, Hilary Benn, the Shadow

:25:07.:25:09.

Foreign Secretary, clarified matters very quickly and restated support

:25:10.:25:15.

for the use of lethal force and, support of the use of drone strikes,

:25:16.:25:17.

which Jeremy had also questioned. Jeremy himself, thankfully,

:25:18.:25:23.

a few hours later, also issued a clarification,

:25:24.:25:25.

and I'm very pleased he did. A lot of Labour voters will

:25:26.:25:28.

have been very relieved. Then came a row about the former

:25:29.:25:32.

Mayor of London, Ken Livingstone, being appointed to co-chair

:25:33.:25:38.

the party's review of Trident, and the emergence of a letter from a

:25:39.:25:41.

campaign group calling for MI5 to be disbanded that the Shadow

:25:42.:25:44.

Chancellor, John McDonnell, seems And we found something else

:25:45.:25:46.

interesting that John This Parliamentary motion he

:25:47.:25:50.

proposed last October saying taxpayers who do not

:25:51.:25:57.

like war should be able to opt out The military is where

:25:58.:26:00.

the next battle may lie. If and

:26:01.:26:06.

when the Government brings forward plans to extend British air strikes

:26:07.:26:11.

from Iraq to Syria, some Labour MPs want to vote in favour, while

:26:12.:26:14.

their leader is a committed One Labour figure is speaking out

:26:15.:26:17.

for the first time. I think it would be wrong to suggest

:26:18.:26:23.

there is a settled view on the People will bring

:26:24.:26:27.

their own prejudices, which are from being instinctively

:26:28.:26:31.

for intervention, to having long The only thing I would ask of all

:26:32.:26:33.

of my colleagues is we look at this with an open mind,

:26:34.:26:39.

examining the facts rather than seeing how it matches our

:26:40.:26:45.

prejudices, and then reach a decision which is in the national

:26:46.:26:53.

interest. Do you think Jeremy Corbyn

:26:54.:26:55.

is able to do that? He has some very strongly held views

:26:56.:26:57.

that we should not get involved He may have to come to

:26:58.:27:01.

a point where he says, now that I'm not just a backbencher,

:27:02.:27:05.

I am actually the Leader of There is an element

:27:06.:27:09.

of national interest and that is For the young Corbynites at this

:27:10.:27:12.

event about Labour's economic policy The only reason we look bad to

:27:13.:27:17.

the general public, the only reason we do not look very strong at the

:27:18.:27:24.

moment, is that we are not united. If you have criticisms with

:27:25.:27:28.

the Leader, you should take it up It is not fitting to do these things

:27:29.:27:31.

in the press, criticising people. Do you think there is a plot

:27:32.:27:35.

against Jeremy Corbyn? If they are planning

:27:36.:27:39.

a plot they should probably think about the fact Jeremy was elected

:27:40.:27:46.

with 59.5% of the vote, I think. And we saw, from the beginning,

:27:47.:27:49.

he went from the least likely person to get

:27:50.:27:56.

in to the front runner, to the If people are plotting to get rid

:27:57.:28:00.

of him, they really should listen The party should be based

:28:01.:28:04.

around what the party members want. Unfortunately for them there will be

:28:05.:28:08.

another flash point On Tuesday there will be a vote

:28:09.:28:10.

in the House of Commons on Trident, Labour MPs have been

:28:11.:28:15.

instructed not to turn up. We understand a bunch of them,

:28:16.:28:19.

including some big names, are thinking about defying

:28:20.:28:22.

their Leader and voting It would be a largely symbolic vote

:28:23.:28:24.

but another visible symbol of I'm joined now from Doncaster

:28:25.:28:32.

by the Labour MP Caroline Flint - she was a minister under Tony Blair

:28:33.:28:41.

and Gordon Brown. Good morning, thank you for coming

:28:42.:28:52.

back on the programme. Let me begin with a general question, it's been a

:28:53.:28:56.

pretty terrible week for Labour, what is the mood now on the Labour

:28:57.:29:01.

backbenches among your colleagues? It's not been a great week for

:29:02.:29:05.

Labour, that is correct. I think part of the reason for that is we

:29:06.:29:10.

haven't looked certain and confident on some of the big issues the nation

:29:11.:29:15.

are worried about. What we have to have from the leadership, not just

:29:16.:29:19.

Jeremy but those around him, is certainty about what we think about

:29:20.:29:26.

what is happening in terms of the terrorist acts in Paris. But more

:29:27.:29:30.

widely about what the certainty we can offer as Labour Party about how

:29:31.:29:34.

we will support our national security. I think understandably

:29:35.:29:39.

there have been concerns, I don't think just on the backbenches of the

:29:40.:29:43.

Labour Party, but also amongst the Shadow Cabinet, that is clear, but

:29:44.:29:48.

also more widely amongst the party membership as well. The news has

:29:49.:29:53.

been dominated for a week now by these terrible events in Paris. Has

:29:54.:29:59.

Jeremy Corbyn mishandled the Labour response to these events? I think

:30:00.:30:06.

what is really important is that with leadership does come a massive

:30:07.:30:11.

responsibility to with certainty about a whole number

:30:12.:30:17.

of issues. But probably more than any other subject area if you like

:30:18.:30:21.

national security demands that. Because at a time where we are all

:30:22.:30:25.

reeling from what has happened in Paris, and there is no doubt Jeremy

:30:26.:30:29.

Corbyn takes very, very seriously what has happened there and its

:30:30.:30:32.

implication for the security of British people as well and others

:30:33.:30:39.

allowing our pleas through the legal allowing our pleas through the legal

:30:40.:30:42.

framework which already exists to take action when they are presented

:30:43.:30:45.

with a terrorist in front of them but also on some of the other

:30:46.:30:49.

matters about how we should move forward in a united way with other

:30:50.:30:53.

matters about how we should move countries to tackle Isil, I think

:30:54.:30:55.

that certainty has been wanting and not helped, I have to say, when

:30:56.:30:58.

other members of the Shadow not helped, I have to say, when

:30:59.:31:01.

cannot speak with one voice about not helped, I have to say, when

:31:02.:31:04.

what the leader wants to do. I hope out of this week we will see some

:31:05.:31:09.

what the leader wants to do. I hope clarity and certainty coming forward

:31:10.:31:13.

and I think we already know, and I have heard more this morning, that

:31:14.:31:17.

David Cameron will come back to the House of Commons this week. We do

:31:18.:31:21.

need a plan, it can't just be about military action, it has to be more

:31:22.:31:26.

than that and I hope we can be in a position to opportunity going

:31:27.:31:29.

forward to tackle the threat of Isil which is the most major threat to

:31:30.:31:31.

security around the world that we have at the moment.

:31:32.:31:36.

If Mr Cameron comes form with that dashes forward with that kind of

:31:37.:31:43.

If Mr Cameron comes form with that plan, would you back military action

:31:44.:31:48.

in Syria? I believe there can be a case former literary action in

:31:49.:31:55.

Syria. We are facing the most profoundly barbaric group of

:31:56.:31:58.

Syria. We are facing the most terrorists I think I have ever

:31:59.:32:01.

realised in my lifetime or thought about. -- military action. Also the

:32:02.:32:06.

most resourced group of terrorists in the world. It is a different

:32:07.:32:12.

situation to what we faced a few years ago where I voted against

:32:13.:32:16.

military action when Cameron came back to Parliament to deal with

:32:17.:32:23.

Assad. We have in this country and this region, a number of dangerous

:32:24.:32:29.

groups. There are a number of -- there is a hierarchy of dangerous

:32:30.:32:35.

groups and Isil is the top of that list. If it can be about, yes, what

:32:36.:32:42.

sort of military action should take place, maybe the air strikes... Like

:32:43.:32:50.

we are doing in Iraq, within that a wider plan as to how we will deal

:32:51.:32:53.

with civil war in Syria and what else we need to do going forward.

:32:54.:32:58.

That is something I feel I could support. You say there is no doubt

:32:59.:33:03.

that the Labour leadership takes these matters seriously. Can I point

:33:04.:33:07.

out, just before the election this year, the Shadow Chancellor penned

:33:08.:33:15.

his name to a document supporting the abolition of MI5 and disarming

:33:16.:33:19.

the police? Last year he supported people opting out of having their

:33:20.:33:24.

taxes fund any kind of military activity. I do not think... I

:33:25.:33:29.

suspect a lot of people will not think that is taking these issues

:33:30.:33:34.

very seriously. Is Mr McConnell fit to hold the second most important

:33:35.:33:40.

position within the Shadow Cabinet? One of the aspects of the leadership

:33:41.:33:44.

campaign over the summer was a sense that Jeremy was authentic and very

:33:45.:33:50.

clear about his views. And, you know, they may not be shared with

:33:51.:33:55.

everybody, I may have some different views to Jeremy on that. Part of his

:33:56.:34:00.

appeal was the authenticity, that it did not have any spin. He said he

:34:01.:34:08.

did not realise what he do when he held that the letter and seemed to

:34:09.:34:13.

support it. We had a leadership election. There was a massive surge

:34:14.:34:17.

in our membership and Jeremy had an overwhelming mandate. Maybe, you

:34:18.:34:23.

know, Jeremy and John McDonnell, have earned the right within that to

:34:24.:34:27.

put forward their views. What is clear to me, I am a moderate

:34:28.:34:32.

politician, but I am also a conviction politician. I do not say

:34:33.:34:36.

one thing to one group of people and another to another group of people.

:34:37.:34:39.

If the leadership Is it not a danger that voters will

:34:40.:35:18.

conclude that the Labour Party is not fit for purpose when it comes to

:35:19.:35:21.

national security, not just economic security? When it comes to

:35:22.:35:26.

leadership, as you know, Andrew, you may have your own views but you have

:35:27.:35:32.

to be open to actually other views as well and that is why we are

:35:33.:35:37.

having this debate. We are having that within our own party about what

:35:38.:35:42.

we do next regarding Israel and Syria. Jeremy Corbyn has an

:35:43.:35:46.

overwhelming mandate but with that comes responsibility of leadership

:35:47.:35:52.

to show that the ideas that he puts forward and the answers to these

:35:53.:35:56.

difficult questions whether it is on the economy or national security

:35:57.:35:59.

reaches out beyond the Parliamentary Labour Party and to that matter, the

:36:00.:36:04.

Labour Party and the British people and we the stand. -- Isil. Part of

:36:05.:36:11.

leadership is to win the confidence of the people and that has not just

:36:12.:36:14.

been the task of Jeremy Corbyn but it is the task of the Labour Party

:36:15.:36:17.

and he has to show that he can do that. I think he wants to do that

:36:18.:36:21.

and this morning they have said that they will have the full discussion,

:36:22.:36:26.

the Shadow Cabinet, there will be discussions with the Parliamentary

:36:27.:36:32.

Labour Party as well. Leadership requires that wider reaching

:36:33.:36:35.

responsibility beyond our own party boundaries. I do not surprise that

:36:36.:36:39.

in so many personal appointments, the Shadow Chancellor, John

:36:40.:36:44.

McDonnell, Ken Morgenstern now on defence and so on, that Mr Corbyn

:36:45.:36:47.

seems to have made no effort to reach out to the centre of your

:36:48.:36:54.

party, much less the right of it. ? -- Ken Livingstone. All party

:36:55.:37:00.

leaders and I have seen a few, sometimes around themselves not just

:37:01.:37:03.

with the elected politicians but also the paid staffers that are part

:37:04.:37:09.

of the group. For any party leader, whoever they are point, they must

:37:10.:37:12.

show that they are going to work anyway that is not just fashioned by

:37:13.:37:17.

their own particular background and experience and perhaps the own point

:37:18.:37:24.

of view, because there is a wider responsibility here. The Labour

:37:25.:37:26.

Party is not a pressure group, we exist to win elections in order to

:37:27.:37:32.

put our platform into practice in government and therefore, the people

:37:33.:37:36.

around Jeremy Corbyn that he has appointed, they must understand the

:37:37.:37:41.

responsibilities of that and to the wider Labour Party, some people

:37:42.:37:44.

within it who may not agree with him on everything, but at their heart,

:37:45.:37:48.

we all want to win the next election. Most importantly, 400,000

:37:49.:37:53.

people took part in the leadership election, amazing. We have had a

:37:54.:37:57.

groundswell of people join our party and many of whom want to be active

:37:58.:38:01.

in a very positive way and I welcome that. All right. But we must

:38:02.:38:06.

convince millions of people to support us in the next general

:38:07.:38:10.

election and in all of the general election is up to 2020. The Bidisha

:38:11.:38:14.

and their team have the responsibility to show that we can

:38:15.:38:19.

achieve that. Final question, as Mr Jeremy Corbyn continues in this week

:38:20.:38:23.

that he has begun, will he meet your party into the 2020 election, does

:38:24.:38:30.

he have any chance of winning? Look, we have had seven or eight weeks

:38:31.:38:34.

since the leadership election, it has been rocky along the way. I

:38:35.:38:38.

think we have made a significant impact when it came to the debate

:38:39.:38:41.

around tax credits for working people. Will he read your party into

:38:42.:38:47.

the next election? Last week was difficult. What Jeremy must do now

:38:48.:38:52.

is focus on how he read our party right now, that will determine our

:38:53.:38:56.

fortunes in the weeks and months, but also in 2020. -- lead our party.

:38:57.:39:01.

Thank you for joining us, Caroline Flint.

:39:02.:39:07.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who believe us now for

:39:08.:39:12.

Sunday Politics Scotland. -- lead us now.

:39:13.:39:17.

Good morning and welcome to Sunday Politics Scotland.

:39:18.:39:19.

David Cameron backed a successful UN Security Council resolution to

:39:20.:39:23.

"redouble" action against Islamic State, but will the SNP and Labour

:39:24.:39:25.

With the prospect of joining Russia and others in air strikes on Syria,

:39:26.:39:32.

Holyrood is on course to get new tax powers,

:39:33.:39:34.

but can the Scottish Government and the UK Treasury agree on the

:39:35.:39:37.

David Cameron is to set out his strategy for Syria's future

:39:38.:39:50.

and tackling the Islamic State group in the region before MPs this week.

:39:51.:39:53.

The cross-party Foreign Affairs Committee said last

:39:54.:39:55.

month that British military action in Syria could not be extended

:39:56.:39:57.

MPs voted against UK military action against the Syrian Government

:39:58.:40:03.

in 2013, but did later approve British participation in air strikes

:40:04.:40:07.

The SNP has said the UN resolution passed on Friday isn't enough and

:40:08.:40:15.

The party's Deputy Leader, Stewart Hosie, can they be clear

:40:16.:40:28.

firstly on what your position is on this? Nicola Sturgeon in an

:40:29.:40:32.

interview with the BBC this week has said that she was prepared to listen

:40:33.:40:38.

to whatever David Cameron had to see in justification of British

:40:39.:40:44.

participation in Syria. Well, the position is extremely clear, the

:40:45.:40:46.

First Minister has said that she will listen... So, you have made up

:40:47.:40:54.

your mind? I will finish the first answer! We will listen to any cases

:40:55.:41:01.

made. We have been clear throughout this that there may potentially be a

:41:02.:41:06.

place for military action as part of a bigger solution, but we have been

:41:07.:41:12.

extremely clear indeed. We have to have a chapter seven UN resolution

:41:13.:41:16.

which actually permits military action so that it is legal. There

:41:17.:41:21.

has to be confirmation of the effectiveness of the military

:41:22.:41:25.

action, dropping a few bombs simply might not provide any help

:41:26.:41:31.

whatsoever, and essentially, there must be a post-conflict plan, so

:41:32.:41:36.

that we do not simply blunder in and create a bigger vacuum for Isil to

:41:37.:41:45.

fill. Since that, President Putin and President Obama have been in

:41:46.:41:49.

discussions. We have had the United outcome from the Vienna conference

:41:50.:41:54.

last weekend, interesting of which Iran signed up as a major player. We

:41:55.:42:00.

are sceptical that dropping a few more bombs will help at all. We have

:42:01.:42:04.

to precisely see what the terms of David Cameron's plan is and then

:42:05.:42:08.

take it from there once we have seen exactly what is on the table. There

:42:09.:42:12.

will not be a chapter seven resolution from the United Nations

:42:13.:42:15.

before David Cameron asks MPs to vote in favour of action in Serbia,

:42:16.:42:21.

so what are you telling us, unless David Cameron's plan, what he

:42:22.:42:30.

outlines his ICP can do is... David Cameron will see that Britain will

:42:31.:42:36.

put in a chapter seven resolution, you will not support it unless that

:42:37.:42:41.

happens? The position is that you have to have that. To gain from that

:42:42.:42:47.

it is legal and you have international support. That in

:42:48.:42:51.

itself is not Mrs Ali enough because we must conform that dropping more

:42:52.:42:59.

bombs is part of a plan, not just to tackle Isil, you know, this is a

:43:00.:43:06.

multifaceted Civil War. The point I make to you is that there is a UN

:43:07.:43:13.

resolution but it is not a chapter seven resolution. As far as I am

:43:14.:43:18.

aware, there is no plan for a chapter seven resolution, so when

:43:19.:43:20.

you have said that you are prepared to hear what David Cameron has to

:43:21.:43:24.

tell us, you are telling us that you will vote against because there will

:43:25.:43:30.

not be a chapter seven resolution? We do not know, you do not know and

:43:31.:43:33.

I do not know whether they Wallaby or not. So let us give the Prime

:43:34.:43:37.

Minister the courtesy of hearing what he has to tell us. As he

:43:38.:43:41.

confirms that there will be won and the plan is to seek one, that is

:43:42.:43:46.

important, it is the position to ensure that what happens is legal,

:43:47.:43:50.

for goodness sake. And in other aspects of what we have been talking

:43:51.:43:55.

about, to insure the effectiveness of the intervention itself actually

:43:56.:43:59.

helps and that we have a proper post-conflict plan so that we do not

:44:00.:44:03.

end up in the position in which we were in and Libya. When we spent

:44:04.:44:09.

twice on bombing -- twice as much on bombing as we did on rebuilding and

:44:10.:44:17.

anarchy followed. It did not the SNP support that action in Libya? Yes,

:44:18.:44:21.

absolutely, in hindsight it was the correct thing to do, but the whole

:44:22.:44:25.

point is in the absence of a man that you end up in a situation when

:44:26.:44:31.

frankly you can make matters worse. What would you reply B2 the point

:44:32.:44:35.

that David Cameron made in the House of Commons this week in response to

:44:36.:44:38.

Angus Robertson when he said that while he would like the UN

:44:39.:44:44.

resolution, he was not prepared to let his judgments on the security of

:44:45.:44:49.

the United Kingdom be hostage to decisions by China and by Russia,

:44:50.:44:56.

both of whom have been big backers of President Assad, and is that not

:44:57.:45:01.

the problem? If you have to have a chapter seven resolution, you are

:45:02.:45:05.

effectively saying that this Chinese Communist Party and President Putin

:45:06.:45:11.

are the deciding factors in the view of the SNP, not what it David

:45:12.:45:15.

Cameron or anyone else in Britain decides? I think that was deflection

:45:16.:45:21.

by the Prime Minister, to be brutally honest, precisely because

:45:22.:45:25.

there was agreement at the Vienna conference last week, precisely

:45:26.:45:31.

because there was a more general UN revolution accepted this week, I do

:45:32.:45:35.

not think... I think that is a good case of the Prime Minister chooses

:45:36.:45:40.

to go down that route, to seek a proper chapter seven resolution from

:45:41.:45:44.

the United Nations, I think to suggest that he has been held

:45:45.:45:48.

hostage by the beetle, that is an excuse for inaction... But your

:45:49.:45:56.

position that you have outlined in some detail, it amounts to saying

:45:57.:46:02.

that should China or Russia veto a chapter seven resolution, then you,

:46:03.:46:08.

the SNP, would say to the British Prime Minister, the fact that they

:46:09.:46:11.

have done that, deprive you of any reason to take military action in

:46:12.:46:17.

Syria. I think when we have seen military action taking place in the

:46:18.:46:21.

past in the absence of this, the illegal war in Iraq for example,

:46:22.:46:25.

when there was not unanimous international agreement on the

:46:26.:46:28.

course of action to be taken, that actually created a situation, a

:46:29.:46:34.

massive vacuum, which was filled by the likes of Isil of this world and

:46:35.:46:40.

what we are seeing is a civil war, huge destruction, a massive refugee

:46:41.:46:46.

crisis in Europe as well, without at least the certainty of a legal

:46:47.:46:52.

mandate from the UN, if we simply got a few more bombs along with all

:46:53.:46:54.

the countries that are currently bombing, is hard to see how that in

:46:55.:47:01.

itself helps the situation... But you still have not answered David

:47:02.:47:05.

Cameron's point that effectively and you have said this several times, is

:47:06.:47:09.

giving China and Russia a veto over what military action we might take

:47:10.:47:14.

together with the Americans and the French in Syria. If the Chinese

:47:15.:47:19.

decide to veto it, and the Russians as backers of President Assad might

:47:20.:47:24.

agree to it, you are telling us that the SNP will not side with the

:47:25.:47:27.

British and the Americans and the friends, we would rather go along

:47:28.:47:30.

with what the Russians and the Chinese have done? That is an odd

:47:31.:47:37.

argument given that Russia and France are already taking unilateral

:47:38.:47:45.

action insights. -- France. The idea that we would seek to oppose the

:47:46.:47:49.

United Nations approving action does strike me as a rather weak argument

:47:50.:47:55.

is that is the 1 that the Prime Minister chose to deploy. From our

:47:56.:48:01.

point of view, not just for the SNP, but for the whole of the UK, surely

:48:02.:48:05.

we have learned the mistakes of Iraq and that the very least we should

:48:06.:48:09.

not be blundering into another concept

:48:10.:48:12.

# Conflict dropping yet more bombs into a place that is awash with

:48:13.:48:17.

violence in the absence of the UN resolution that permits it. Thank

:48:18.:48:25.

you very much for joining us, Stewart Hosie. Thank you.

:48:26.:48:30.

Yesterday, in a speech in Bristol, Jeremy Corbyn warned of the dangers

:48:31.:48:33.

of using force, and that it was too early to say if Labour would back

:48:34.:48:37.

Joining us now from our Cardiff studio is Shadow Foreign Affairs

:48:38.:48:41.

Good morning. Stephen Doughty, I do not know if you heard him, but we

:48:42.:48:48.

have heard Stewart Hosie seeing that without a chapter seven resolution,

:48:49.:48:52.

that is one that specifically authorises military force, from the

:48:53.:48:58.

United Nations, the SNP will not back military action in Syria, is

:48:59.:49:01.

that a position that you agree with? The first thing to say is we

:49:02.:49:06.

do not have proposals on the table from David Cameron and the UK

:49:07.:49:08.

Government and the only way to approach such a serious matter is

:49:09.:49:18.

the deployment of force in Syria is to look at whatever proposals come

:49:19.:49:21.

forward. There have been significant elements from the UN in recent days

:49:22.:49:25.

and that is what we have been calling for, the UN resolution,

:49:26.:49:29.

talks of other members of the Security Council. That is what

:49:30.:49:33.

Jeremy Corbyn and others have set out. But until there is a proposal

:49:34.:49:39.

on the Tabor, we are talking about hypotheticals here. -- table. The

:49:40.:49:43.

SNP have made it clear that unless there is a chapter seven resolution,

:49:44.:49:47.

they will not support military action, that is not a hypothetical,

:49:48.:49:52.

that is asking if the Labour Party has the same position. I have

:49:53.:49:54.

listened to what Stewart Hosie said, it is good this week that the SNP

:49:55.:49:59.

have a range of views on this. It is only honest and admit that across

:50:00.:50:02.

Parliament and the Labour Party, there are a range of views on this

:50:03.:50:13.

complex situation. We are talking about a Civil War in Syria, we are

:50:14.:50:16.

talking a lot Daesh and Isis controlling last amounts of land. We

:50:17.:50:19.

are talking about innocent civilians getting caught up and the barbarous

:50:20.:50:25.

activities of Daesh as well. There are a range of views on that but we

:50:26.:50:29.

cannot comment until we have a proposal from the Government. The

:50:30.:50:38.

SNP would say that they have a very consistent view on this and they are

:50:39.:50:43.

not all over the place on this. Given that you have said there is a

:50:44.:50:47.

range of views in the Labour Party, will you allow your MPs a free vote

:50:48.:50:52.

on this? The Labour Party will have to have a discussion and an honest

:50:53.:50:56.

discussion regards whatever the Hamas government puts on the table.

:50:57.:50:59.

Hilary Benn has been clear that there are a series of tests that we

:51:00.:51:05.

would want to consider in terms of a company heads of strategy around any

:51:06.:51:09.

actions proposed, the legal basis, proportionality in relation to the

:51:10.:51:12.

actions we are already taking in Iraq and elsewhere and until we have

:51:13.:51:17.

a proposal on the table from the Government, it is difficult to

:51:18.:51:20.

protect the position of the front bench and what working arrangements

:51:21.:51:23.

there will be. I will take this matter extremely seriously as all

:51:24.:51:28.

MPs do. This is about omitting troops to military action, our

:51:29.:51:35.

military resources to action. It is what the Government wants to put

:51:36.:51:39.

forward. We cannot quite tell you what we we will vote yet as a

:51:40.:51:44.

result. So you are telling me that the Labour Party at the moment does

:51:45.:51:47.

not have any position on whether or not Britain should get involved

:51:48.:51:51.

militarily in Syria, and you appear to be digested it does not have any

:51:52.:51:56.

position on whether or not Labour MPs should be given a free vote or

:51:57.:52:02.

should be what to vote one way or another? That is not the case. That

:52:03.:52:07.

is what you have just told me. We have set out a series of tests and

:52:08.:52:12.

principles that we would want to see exam and after the proposal was put

:52:13.:52:17.

on the table by the Government. These are very live matters, we have

:52:18.:52:21.

seen a series of developments in recent days, not least the horrific

:52:22.:52:26.

attacks on people then Beirut, Ankara and Paris, and the growing

:52:27.:52:35.

threat in Belgium. This appears to be all surrounding Isil. There has

:52:36.:52:42.

been a UN resolution passed in the last few hours which calls on member

:52:43.:52:46.

states to use all necessary means, clearly this is a live debate. Until

:52:47.:52:50.

the Government comes forward with a clear statement and a legal basis

:52:51.:52:56.

for action, the nature of any action they are proposing, it is difficult

:52:57.:52:59.

to hypothesise about what position we would take on that. It is only

:53:00.:53:03.

right that these matters are concerned and looked at with the

:53:04.:53:06.

utmost seriousness and openness in light of what has been going on.

:53:07.:53:12.

Clearly as I am having difficulty understanding the policies and the

:53:13.:53:15.

procedures of the Labour Party, perhaps you can mighty me on this.

:53:16.:53:19.

The SNP will put forward this week emotion that- should not be renewed,

:53:20.:53:22.

am I correct in thinking that it latest great political tactic of the

:53:23.:53:28.

Labour Party is to tell your MPs not to Tom Pope to the debate in case

:53:29.:53:32.

they vote for a way that you do not agree with? Let us be clear. The SNP

:53:33.:53:36.

and other opposition parties often put forward motions which the Labour

:53:37.:53:43.

Party does not take a condition on where we vote one way or another,

:53:44.:53:48.

that is a common tactic. I understand the SNP have had

:53:49.:53:51.

difficulties themselves establishing... But is it true that

:53:52.:53:54.

you are asking your own members not to turn up? The motion has not been

:53:55.:54:02.

cleared yet. We understand the SNP do not support the removal of

:54:03.:54:06.

Trident rather than the renewal, so if they cannot get the workings of

:54:07.:54:10.

their own emotions correct, we are in a very clear situation where

:54:11.:54:14.

there are games being played. The SNP have had the attempts to put

:54:15.:54:19.

down opposition motions in the last calendar year on which they have

:54:20.:54:22.

used on Trident and one that they have used on the refugees, a serious

:54:23.:54:26.

matter that must be considered, but they cannot get their own motion

:54:27.:54:30.

right it is retro them to ask what our position is. Thank you for

:54:31.:54:35.

talking to us, Stephen Doherty. -- Stephen Doherty.

:54:36.:54:40.

Well, Syria is one of the threats facing

:54:41.:54:42.

us, but just how does a government assess its defence and future

:54:43.:54:45.

security priorities and adjust its policies and forces accordingly?

:54:46.:54:47.

Tomorrow sees the publication of the Strategic Defence

:54:48.:54:49.

Ministers will have to overcome a degree of scepticism

:54:50.:54:51.

as to whether this latest SDSR is genuinely "strategic" or if it

:54:52.:54:54.

matches Britain's global ambitions with the resources needed.

:54:55.:54:56.

Malcolm Chalmers is director of UK defence policy at the

:54:57.:54:59.

Royal United Services Institute and he joins us from our Leeds studio.

:55:00.:55:11.

Please excuse me for asking before I ask about the SDSR, before the

:55:12.:55:20.

bombing campaign in Syria has good been a substantial difference made?

:55:21.:55:25.

I think there has been a difference. The dip Matic political tract has

:55:26.:55:33.

been more important. There has been a positive impact in protecting the

:55:34.:55:39.

Syrian Kurds without their support, Syrian Kurd populations in northern

:55:40.:55:43.

Syria almost certainly would be overrun by Isil with all the

:55:44.:55:47.

consequences of that sort that has even positive. It has helped ensure

:55:48.:55:54.

that Isil populations in Iraq with the UK is bombing do not have the

:55:55.:55:57.

safe haven across the border in Syria from we are to have the week

:55:58.:56:03.

to resupply their forces. Even if we do get involved in UK military

:56:04.:56:10.

operations in Syria it can make some positive difference. Ultimately it

:56:11.:56:14.

is only part of a much wider picture. One of the things that

:56:15.:56:18.

puzzles me about the bombing campaign in Syria is all the French

:56:19.:56:23.

and Russians say they have in bombing oil installations because I

:56:24.:56:31.

guess makes money from huge convoys of tankers taking oil away from

:56:32.:56:35.

installations it controls. -- IS. This relatively campaign has going

:56:36.:56:41.

on for months now, why on earth when the oil installations which are

:56:42.:56:45.

physical things and arguably legitimate military targets, the

:56:46.:56:50.

first thing that US and its allies to code? Until recently the United

:56:51.:56:58.

States was a lot and to bomb oil facilities because of the potential

:56:59.:57:02.

for civilian casualties. The people involved in these facilities in Isil

:57:03.:57:08.

controlled territory are not themselves militaries are people try

:57:09.:57:12.

to make a living through this trade. When Americans bombed oil tankers

:57:13.:57:19.

the drop leaflets in advance to warn civilian drivers to get out of the

:57:20.:57:22.

week before the bombs were dropped but here are an increase in the

:57:23.:57:29.

likelihood of civilians being affected. He lives an increase in

:57:30.:57:34.

the US and other countries being more prepared to take the risk of

:57:35.:57:40.

civilian casualties. The defence review is becoming ever more

:57:41.:57:42.

increasingly tied in with what we have just been talking about. It is

:57:43.:57:49.

supposed to reorient Britain's Armed Forces to be able to deal precisely

:57:50.:57:53.

with this sort of threat. It is clear there will be an increase in

:57:54.:57:58.

money on six Unity agencies, he spoofs and the spies. The bit more

:57:59.:58:05.

money for military equipment. Is it measuring up to what it is supposed

:58:06.:58:08.

to do from what you are stealing? In many respects it is a steady issue

:58:09.:58:13.

go review. There are some issues like cyber, the intelligence

:58:14.:58:19.

agencies which have more money, other areas have less money, the

:58:20.:58:23.

deadly concern about whether the Foreign Office will be maintained

:58:24.:58:27.

even its importance in international security. What I think is a big

:58:28.:58:32.

change compared with expect nations is that only four or five months ago

:58:33.:58:37.

people were expecting the defence budget to get another they kept as

:58:38.:58:42.

many defence departments will be getting in on the spending review,

:58:43.:58:46.

education and social services and so on. The government has made it the

:58:47.:58:52.

day will get defensive real terms increase of 0.5% each year. The MOD

:58:53.:59:01.

will be able to avoid the big cuts and capabilities that people were

:59:02.:59:03.

feeling and make some modest new investments. -- fearing. It takes a

:59:04.:59:11.

big time to change plans and a lot of what we will have indeed 2024

:59:12.:59:18.

structure, the Army, navy, air force, will look similar to what we

:59:19.:59:24.

were predicting in 2010. It was symbolic when the aware reactions to

:59:25.:59:29.

the attacks in Paris by despatching symbolic when the aware reactions to

:59:30.:59:34.

an aircraft carrier stuffed with military aircraft in

:59:35.:59:37.

an aircraft carrier stuffed with of the Gulf. We would not be able to

:59:38.:59:39.

do that at the moment. We do not have an aircraft carrier and we do

:59:40.:59:43.

not have any lanes to have an aircraft carrier and we do

:59:44.:59:47.

aircraft carriers we do not have. have an aircraft carrier and we do

:59:48.:59:51.

That's right but I think it will change by the early part of next

:59:52.:59:57.

decade, perhaps 2022, because of the carriers now under construction. We

:59:58.:59:59.

will have carriers now under construction. We

:00:00.:00:03.

available at that time. It is important to remember the UK has

:00:04.:00:06.

been lunching and strikes against Iraq and could potentially do so

:00:07.:00:11.

against Syria from site was. We do not need an aircraft carrier to

:00:12.:00:18.

launch strikes in that region because we have a sovereign race

:00:19.:00:21.

area which no one can deny to us. because we have a sovereign race

:00:22.:00:26.

is something other allies do not have. Aircraft carriers can make a

:00:27.:00:32.

difference but make a difference in places like the fault was that you

:00:33.:00:37.

do not have land leases. One of the things the SNP has been making a

:00:38.:00:39.

fuss about now is the lack of things the SNP has been making a

:00:40.:00:47.

reconnaissance and submarine capability in Britain. I right in

:00:48.:00:50.

thinking that this note pretty much except that across the board and we

:00:51.:00:55.

will see a change and the introduction of some sort of

:00:56.:00:59.

maritime reconnaissance whether buying aircraft from America or

:01:00.:01:05.

something else? This has been one of the most hotly contested issues

:01:06.:01:07.

within government in this defence review. It is not about the

:01:08.:01:12.

principle of having a maritime control aircraft capability but what

:01:13.:01:18.

system to buy. The cost baby and and the capabilities of different art

:01:19.:01:23.

forms VED. I have not seen the defence that is coming out tomorrow.

:01:24.:01:28.

-- defence review. My gut feeling is we will end up with the cost

:01:29.:01:35.

competition that will be flown out to competitive tendering. That

:01:36.:01:39.

choice and the admits giving everyone the chance to make their

:01:40.:01:45.

case. The minus side is that it will delay the capability for one or two

:01:46.:01:50.

macro years longer. Those who wanted us to buy the best or most capable

:01:51.:01:59.

aircraft will be disappointed. Thank you for joining us this morning.

:02:00.:02:03.

Earlier this week, a House of Lords committee called for the Scotland

:02:04.:02:06.

Bill to be put on hold until issues over the funding package that

:02:07.:02:09.

The bill completed its journey through the House

:02:10.:02:12.

of Commons earlier this month and is now with the Lords.

:02:13.:02:14.

But agreement on the fiscal rules has yet to be reached

:02:15.:02:17.

between the Scottish Government and the UK Treasury, and that framework

:02:18.:02:20.

includes the adjustment which will have to be made to Scotland's block

:02:21.:02:23.

Our reporter Andrew Black has been finding out what it means.

:02:24.:02:34.

Nicola Sturgeon is in an enviable position. As Scottish First Minister

:02:35.:02:41.

she stands to have at heart disposal one of the world's most powerful

:02:42.:02:48.

devolved parliaments. Also we are told that is because Holyrood is on

:02:49.:02:53.

course to gain major new tax and welfare powers but right now that is

:02:54.:02:57.

being overshadowed by concern about whether it can be done fairly. At

:02:58.:03:04.

the moment Scotland was much ?30 billion annual budget is funded

:03:05.:03:07.

totally by the UK Treasury known as the Loch grant. The amount of cash

:03:08.:03:14.

which goes into the port is worked out by the Barnett formula. Once

:03:15.:03:19.

Scotland gets its own powers to raise tax money the amount of cash

:03:20.:03:23.

that comes north of the formula that order will be cut. The fiscal

:03:24.:03:29.

framework is going to be tricky. The key issue is, how is the grand

:03:30.:03:35.

adjusted in the second and subsequent years? That is the

:03:36.:03:37.

essence of the argument about the fiscal framework. The final solution

:03:38.:03:43.

is not supposed to route Scotland at a disadvantage order an advantage

:03:44.:03:48.

but some argue that it's a near impossible task. At the moment it

:03:49.:03:54.

will probably end up depending on the bargaining strength rather than

:03:55.:03:57.

on the principle of the different methods. So, it is pretty difficult

:03:58.:04:05.

to predict no and, you know, neither side will be entirely happy. One

:04:06.:04:10.

will probably be more unhappy than the other that it is not clear which

:04:11.:04:15.

we it will go and the is none that I would see is demonstrate bleak

:04:16.:04:22.

superior. -- demonstrate bleak superior for Scotland. Some might be

:04:23.:04:30.

advantageous and some more so. How could Scotland's block rank the

:04:31.:04:36.

reworked? Some may be linking it to Scotland performance. If they manage

:04:37.:04:44.

to grow tax revenues faster than in the rest of the UK it will be able

:04:45.:04:48.

to expand its budget properly relative to the rest of the UK. If

:04:49.:04:54.

it's tax revenues do not grow as fast then the likelihood is that the

:04:55.:04:58.

Scottish budget will contract a bit and then did our arguments about

:04:59.:05:02.

whether that should be adjusted for population, how it should be

:05:03.:05:06.

adjusted on a yearly basis and so on. What is likely to happen? A

:05:07.:05:14.

political compromise, it always is. There will be something in between

:05:15.:05:18.

and they will give it a name like the Barnett formula. What they will

:05:19.:05:21.

not do is go back to the drawing board as able have suggested and

:05:22.:05:24.

work out what the basis for sharing resources should be some say we

:05:25.:05:28.

should have a resource based upon need, what does Scotland need what

:05:29.:05:34.

does we'll need ended as an element that reflects need but that has been

:05:35.:05:39.

backed away from because they will ever find it easy to agree on what

:05:40.:05:44.

that form should be. We will get a messy fudge, that is for sure. The

:05:45.:05:48.

price of getting it wrong could be high. Economists and the Glasgow

:05:49.:05:56.

University rentable this week warned a bad deal could leave Scotland

:05:57.:06:00.

hundreds of millions of times worse off within a few years and this has

:06:01.:06:04.

prompted a call from the House of lords which is currently poring over

:06:05.:06:09.

the bill to deliver a new Holyrood powers body delay until the new

:06:10.:06:13.

fiscal framework can be agreed. Until we know what the new rules are

:06:14.:06:17.

we simply do not have a clue about how this will impact the government

:06:18.:06:21.

of Scotland, the government of the rest of the UK and of course, the

:06:22.:06:25.

people of the UK. The Scottish Government is not keen on that but

:06:26.:06:29.

at the same time says it will not with anything that does not deliver

:06:30.:06:35.

a fair deal. UK ministers say they are committed to exactly that and it

:06:36.:06:39.

does not seem as though the funding talks will stop going on for a while

:06:40.:06:41.

yet. Time to have a look back at

:06:42.:06:44.

the events of this week and preview Scotland correspondent, Libby

:06:45.:06:48.

Brooks, and by the political editor Libby Brooks, just on Syria and that

:06:49.:07:11.

position, am I right in saying that Sweetie Colby subordinate clauses

:07:12.:07:17.

out will the vote against? There did seem to be a lot of subordinate

:07:18.:07:22.

clauses in the. We had Nicola Sturgeon say earlier we would be

:07:23.:07:27.

listening to the case that was being made. They have two say that. Nicola

:07:28.:07:37.

Sturgeon as leader of the third largest party in the UK now, it is a

:07:38.:07:42.

do shift for them to be seen to listening to and responding to the

:07:43.:07:46.

public mood. Obviously public mood has changed significantly,

:07:47.:07:49.

particularly since the Paris attacks. There was public opinion

:07:50.:07:56.

polling. I am not say it is the public mood at the Daily Telegraph

:07:57.:08:02.

headline is that obviously the drums are beating as Britain prepares for

:08:03.:08:08.

war. There was a UN resolution on Friday night but it was not a

:08:09.:08:13.

chapter seven resolution which allows for conflict so I think they

:08:14.:08:17.

are looking for that almost inevitably, that would bring in a

:08:18.:08:21.

Russian veto so I do not see how it can happen. I think the SNP will not

:08:22.:08:26.

be supporting air strikes on Syria however they are almost certain to

:08:27.:08:30.

happen now, judging on what is going on elsewhere. Is that likely to be a

:08:31.:08:37.

popular position for them to take? Obviously being against the Iraq war

:08:38.:08:39.

did them an immense amount of good. I think public opinion has changed

:08:40.:08:50.

after the massacre in Paris. That does not mean that the decision over

:08:51.:08:55.

air strikes has changed, however. There was a clear vote at the SNP

:08:56.:08:58.

conference a few weeks ago against military action in Syria. Members of

:08:59.:09:08.

the SNP were against it. Air strikes can only be a useful weapon in a

:09:09.:09:13.

conflict against IDS if things have changed on the ground. That is a

:09:14.:09:18.

fair position for the SNP to take FA believe in that. Libby, do you agree

:09:19.:09:27.

with David that Britain will take part? Yes, it seems inevitable now.

:09:28.:09:32.

This vote will be incredibly important for David Cameron. He does

:09:33.:09:38.

not want the same humiliation that he had previously and he does not

:09:39.:09:43.

want just to win it, but when it significantly. It is interesting are

:09:44.:09:46.

talking about the mood of the public... When you see

:09:47.:09:50.

significantly, you mean that not only does he want to win over his

:09:51.:09:54.

own party members, a few of which seem to be shifting, then an odd

:09:55.:10:00.

sense, he also needs a whipping process to take place in the Labour

:10:01.:10:04.

Party? That is correct, talking about party met in the Labour Party,

:10:05.:10:11.

at the moment, it seems fairly shambolic. -- mood. But let us keep

:10:12.:10:17.

in mind that the party membership voted overwhelmingly for Jeremy

:10:18.:10:22.

Corbyn, they were highly supportive of his position against any military

:10:23.:10:27.

intervention. It struck me, David Clegg, listening to Stephen

:10:28.:10:33.

Doughty, and also Andrew Neil was speaking to Caroline Flint, I cannot

:10:34.:10:37.

remember a party being in such a situation where a fairly prominent

:10:38.:10:41.

people within the party and they all come on and tell you that there are

:10:42.:10:43.

different views and they have not made up their minds and it is not

:10:44.:10:46.

reasonable to ask them to make up their minds what they are in favour

:10:47.:10:51.

of, it seems a bit extraordinary, does it not? Yes, they are all at

:10:52.:10:58.

sea. There was concern from members of the Labour Party about a Jeremy

:10:59.:11:01.

Corbyn but their main concern was foreign policy. They were concerned

:11:02.:11:06.

his foreign policy views were wide of mainstream public opinion and the

:11:07.:11:12.

fact that only a few weeks after a major firearms there is has erupted

:11:13.:11:17.

in this way, it is particularly problematic for them and that is why

:11:18.:11:20.

I think we will see a significant number of Labour MPs voting along

:11:21.:11:24.

with the David Cameron when this is put on the table. Irrespective of

:11:25.:11:28.

what the Phillips tell them to do? Yes. -- of what the temp -- of what

:11:29.:11:49.

the whips tell them to do? Now about police cuts.

:11:50.:11:57.

Yes, let us not forget that every government department, they are

:11:58.:12:01.

fighting tooth and nail with each other and against these cuts, so it

:12:02.:12:06.

is perhaps not that surprising that the police and the security chiefs

:12:07.:12:11.

are making sure that the exploit what has happened in Paris and

:12:12.:12:16.

again, there is this public mood that we are talking about. The

:12:17.:12:21.

problem for George Osborne is because so many areas of public

:12:22.:12:24.

spending have been protected, the health budget, education, schools in

:12:25.:12:32.

England, the brunt of the cuts is bothering on a relatively small

:12:33.:12:36.

number of departments but therefore they are huge cuts for those

:12:37.:12:39.

departments and it might be difficult to say to the police, the

:12:40.:12:45.

situation has changed, forget about it, because he has nowhere else to

:12:46.:12:51.

go. Yes, the problem he has is that the political imperative in the week

:12:52.:12:54.

of the last few weeks and going forward is that they will have to do

:12:55.:12:58.

something to make it look as though they are investing in security, that

:12:59.:13:05.

they are investing in military with the strategic defence review

:13:06.:13:07.

tomorrow, but they do not have any money they do to do anything.

:13:08.:13:17.

And he respond to the House of Lords on tax credits. That is correct, he

:13:18.:13:23.

does not have the money to do these things. Certainly not with any

:13:24.:13:26.

fiscal framework that he has set out. Libby, he does has a fiscal

:13:27.:13:32.

framework which is extremely flexible if you want it to be! Yes,

:13:33.:13:38.

it seems to be! It is an extraordinary model what has

:13:39.:13:41.

happened with the Scotland Bill at the moment. -- muddle.

:13:42.:13:50.

I am sorry, we will have to be that they are. That is all for this week.

:13:51.:13:56.

Until next week, from everyone on the programme, goodbye.

:13:57.:14:02.

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.

Andrew has an interview with Labour's former Europe minister Caroline Flint and a preview of the comprehensive spending review with former chancellor Nigel Lawson.

On the political panel are Janan Ganesh from The Financial Times, New Statesman's Helen Lewis and Nick Watt of The Guardian.


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