Browse content similar to 22/01/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics. | :00:39. | :00:41. | |
Theresa May will be the first foreign leader to visit US | :00:42. | :00:44. | |
President Donald Trump this week - she's promised to hold "very | :00:45. | :00:47. | |
frank" conversations with the new and controversial | :00:48. | :00:50. | |
Speaking of the 45th President of America, | :00:51. | :00:57. | |
we'll be looking at what the Trump presidency could hold | :00:58. | :01:00. | |
in store for Britain and the rest of the world. | :01:01. | :01:06. | |
And with the Supreme Court expected to say that Parliament should | :01:07. | :01:09. | |
have a vote before the Brexit process begins, we'll ask | :01:10. | :01:12. | |
Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott what Labour will do next. | :01:13. | :01:18. | |
And on Sunday Politics Scotland, the Brexit Minister, Mike Russell, | :01:19. | :01:20. | |
says SNP MPs would vote against the triggering of Article 50 | :01:21. | :01:22. | |
And to talk about all of that and more, I'm joined by three | :01:23. | :01:40. | |
journalists who, in an era of so-called fake news, can be | :01:41. | :01:42. | |
relied upon for their accuracy, their impartiality - | :01:43. | :01:46. | |
and their willingness to come to the studio | :01:47. | :01:49. | |
It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer | :01:50. | :01:55. | |
and Tom Newton Dunn, and during the programme they'll be | :01:56. | :02:02. | |
tweeting as often as the 45th President of the USA in the middle | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
So - the Prime Minister has been appearing on the BBC this morning. | :02:06. | :02:16. | |
She was mostly talking about Donald Trump and Brexit, | :02:17. | :02:18. | |
but she was also asked about a story on the front of this | :02:19. | :02:21. | |
It's reported that an unarmed Trident missile test fired | :02:22. | :02:25. | |
from the submarine HMS Vengeance near the Florida coast in June | :02:26. | :02:31. | |
The paper says the incident took place weeks before a crucial Commons | :02:32. | :02:39. | |
Well, let's have listen to Theresa May talking | :02:40. | :02:43. | |
The issue that we were talking about in the House of Commons | :02:44. | :02:49. | |
It was about whether or not we should renew Trident, | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident. | :02:54. | :02:56. | |
That's what we were talking about in the House of Commons. | :02:57. | :02:59. | |
That's what the House of Commons voted for. | :03:00. | :03:01. | |
He doesn't want to defend our country with an independent | :03:02. | :03:06. | |
There are tests that take place all the time, regularly, | :03:07. | :03:14. | |
What we were talking about in that debate that took place... | :03:15. | :03:22. | |
I'm not going to get an answer to this. | :03:23. | :03:29. | |
Tom, it was clear this was going to come up this morning. It is on the | :03:30. | :03:36. | |
front page of the Sunday Times. It would seem to me the Prime Minister | :03:37. | :03:40. | |
wasn't properly briefed on how to reply. I think she probably was, but | :03:41. | :03:47. | |
the Prime Minister we now have doesn't necessarily answer all | :03:48. | :03:50. | |
questions in the straightest way. She didn't answer that one and all. | :03:51. | :03:58. | |
Unlike previous ones? She made it quite clear she was briefed. You | :03:59. | :04:05. | |
read between the Theresa May lines. By simply not answering Andrew Marr | :04:06. | :04:10. | |
four times, it is obvious she knew, and that she knew before she went | :04:11. | :04:13. | |
into the House of Commons and urged everyone to renew the ?40 billion | :04:14. | :04:20. | |
replacement programme. Of course it is an embarrassment, but does it | :04:21. | :04:23. | |
have political legs? I don't think so. She didn't mislead the Commons. | :04:24. | :04:29. | |
If she wanted to close it down, the answer should have been, these are | :04:30. | :04:35. | |
matters of national security. There's nothing more important in | :04:36. | :04:38. | |
that than our nuclear deterrent. I'm not prepared to talk about testing. | :04:39. | :04:45. | |
End of. But she didn't. Maybe you should be briefing her. That's a | :04:46. | :04:50. | |
good answer. She is an interesting interviewee. She shows it when she | :04:51. | :04:55. | |
is nervous. She was transparently uneasy answering those questions, | :04:56. | :04:59. | |
and the fact she didn't answer it definitively suggests she did know | :05:00. | :05:05. | |
and didn't want to say it, and she answered awkwardly. But how wider | :05:06. | :05:09. | |
point, that the House of Commons voted for the renewal of Trident, | :05:10. | :05:14. | |
suggests to me that in the broader sweep of things, this will not run, | :05:15. | :05:19. | |
because if there was another vote, I would suggest she'd win it again. | :05:20. | :05:25. | |
But it is an embarrassment and she handled it with a transparent | :05:26. | :05:30. | |
awkwardness. She said that the tests go on all the time, but not of the | :05:31. | :05:36. | |
missiles. Does it not show that when the Prime Minister leaves her | :05:37. | :05:40. | |
comfort zone of Home Office affairs or related matters, she often | :05:41. | :05:45. | |
struggles. We've seen it under questioning from Mr Corbyn even, and | :05:46. | :05:52. | |
we saw it again today. Absolutely. Tests of various aspects of the | :05:53. | :05:55. | |
missiles go on all the time, but there's only been five since 2000. | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
What you described wouldn't have worked, because in previous tests | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
they have always been very public about it. Look how well our missiles | :06:06. | :06:13. | |
work! She may not have misled Parliament, but she may not have | :06:14. | :06:21. | |
known about it. If she didn't know, does Michael Fallon still have a job | :06:22. | :06:25. | |
on Monday? Should Parliament know about a test that doesn't work? Some | :06:26. | :06:32. | |
would say absolutely not. Our deterrent is there to deter people | :06:33. | :06:38. | |
from attacking us. If they know that we are hitting the United States by | :06:39. | :06:43. | |
mistake rather than the Atlantic Ocean, then... There is such a thing | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
as national security, and telling all the bad guys about where we are | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
going wrong may not be a good idea. It was her first statement as Prime | :06:54. | :06:57. | |
Minister to put her case for renewal, to have the vote on | :06:58. | :07:03. | |
Trident, and in that context, it is significant not to say anything. If | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
anyone knows where the missile landed, give us a call! | :07:08. | :07:10. | |
So Donald Trump's inauguration day closed with him dancing | :07:11. | :07:13. | |
to Frank Sinatra's My Way, and whatever your view on the 45th | :07:14. | :07:15. | |
President of the United States he certainly did do it his way. | :07:16. | :07:18. | |
Not for him the idealistic call for national unity - | :07:19. | :07:21. | |
instead he used Friday's inaugural address to launch a blistering | :07:22. | :07:23. | |
attack on the dark state of the nation and the political | :07:24. | :07:27. | |
class, and to promise to take his uncompromising approach | :07:28. | :07:31. | |
from the campaign trail to the White House. | :07:32. | :07:35. | |
Here's Adam Fleming, with a reminder of how | :07:36. | :07:39. | |
First, dropping by for a cup of tea and a slightly awkward exchange | :07:40. | :07:47. | |
Then, friends, foes and predecessors watched | :07:48. | :07:56. | |
I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear... | :07:57. | :08:03. | |
The crowds seemed smaller than previous inaugurations, | :08:04. | :08:07. | |
the speech tougher then any previous incoming president. | :08:08. | :08:12. | |
From this day forth, it's going to be only America first. | :08:13. | :08:19. | |
In the meantime, there were sporadic protests in Washington, DC. | :08:20. | :08:44. | |
Opponents made their voices heard around the world too. | :08:45. | :08:48. | |
The President, who'd criticised the work of | :08:49. | :08:50. | |
the intelligence agencies, fitted in a visit to the CIA. | :08:51. | :08:54. | |
There is nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community | :08:55. | :08:58. | |
And, back at the office, in the dark, a signature signalled | :08:59. | :09:10. | |
the end of the Obama era and the dawn of Trump. | :09:11. | :09:15. | |
So, as you heard there, President Trump used his | :09:16. | :09:22. | |
inauguration to repeat his campaign promise to put "America first" | :09:23. | :09:24. | |
in all his decisions, and offered some hints of what to expect | :09:25. | :09:27. | |
He talked of in America in carnage, to be rebuilt by American hands and | :09:28. | :09:44. | |
American Labour. President Trump has already started to dismantle key | :09:45. | :09:48. | |
parts of the Obama Legacy, including the unwinding of the affordable care | :09:49. | :09:52. | |
act, and the siding of the climate action plan to tackle global | :09:53. | :09:58. | |
warning. Little to say about foreign policy, but promised to eradicate | :09:59. | :10:02. | |
Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth, insisting he would | :10:03. | :10:07. | |
restore the US military to unquestioning dominance. He also | :10:08. | :10:13. | |
said the US would develop a state missile defence system to deal with | :10:14. | :10:17. | |
threats he sees from Iran and North Korea. In a statement that painted a | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
bleak picture of the country he now runs, he said his would be a law and | :10:23. | :10:27. | |
order Administration, and he would keep the innocents safe by building | :10:28. | :10:33. | |
the border war with Mexico. One thing he didn't mention, for the | :10:34. | :10:38. | |
first time ever, there is a Eurosceptic in the oval office, who | :10:39. | :10:41. | |
is also an enthusiast for Brexit. We're joined now by Ted Malloch - | :10:42. | :10:44. | |
he's a Trump supporter who's been tipped as the president's | :10:45. | :10:47. | |
choice for US ambassador to the EU, and he's | :10:48. | :10:49. | |
just flown back from Washington. And by James Rubin - | :10:50. | :10:51. | |
he's a democrat who served Let's start with that last point I | :10:52. | :11:03. | |
made in the voice over there. We now have a Eurosceptic in the oval | :11:04. | :11:10. | |
office. He is pro-Brexit and not keen on further European Union | :11:11. | :11:13. | |
integration. What are the implications of that? First of all, | :11:14. | :11:19. | |
a renewal of the US- UK special relationship. You see the Prime | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
Minister already going to build and rebuild this relationship. Already, | :11:25. | :11:28. | |
the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the oval office. | :11:29. | :11:33. | |
Interestingly, Martin Luther King's bust is also there, so there is an | :11:34. | :11:38. | |
act of unity in that first movement of dusts. Donald Trump will be | :11:39. | :11:44. | |
oriented between bilateral relationships and not multilateral | :11:45. | :11:55. | |
or supernatural. Supranational full. What are the implications of someone | :11:56. | :12:00. | |
in the White House now not believing in it? I think we are present in the | :12:01. | :12:06. | |
unravelling of America's leadership of the West. There is now a thing | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
called the west that America has led since the end of World War II, | :12:11. | :12:18. | |
creating supranational - we just heard supernatural! These | :12:19. | :12:27. | |
institutions were created. With American leadership, the world was | :12:28. | :12:32. | |
at peace in Europe, and the world grew increasingly democratic and | :12:33. | :12:36. | |
prosperous. Wars were averted that could be extremely costly. When | :12:37. | :12:41. | |
something works in diplomacy, you don't really understand what the | :12:42. | :12:45. | |
consequences could have been. I think we've got complacent. The new | :12:46. | :12:49. | |
president is taking advantage of that. It is a terrible tragedy that | :12:50. | :12:55. | |
so many in the West take for granted the successful leadership and | :12:56. | :13:00. | |
institutions we have built. You could argue, as James Rubin has | :13:01. | :13:08. | |
argued in some articles, that... Will Mr Trump's America be more | :13:09. | :13:12. | |
involved in the world than the Obama won? Or will it continue the process | :13:13. | :13:20. | |
with running shoes on that began with Mr Obama? President Obama | :13:21. | :13:26. | |
stepped back from American leadership. He withdrew from the | :13:27. | :13:32. | |
world. He had a horrendous eight years in office, and American powers | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
have diminished everywhere in the world, not just in Europe. That | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
power will reassert. The focus will be on America first, but there are | :13:42. | :13:46. | |
foreign interests around the world... How does it reassert itself | :13:47. | :13:52. | |
around the world? I think the institutions will be recreated. Some | :13:53. | :13:56. | |
may be taken down. There could be some new ones. I think Nato itself, | :13:57. | :14:02. | |
and certainly the Defence Secretary will have discussions with Donald | :14:03. | :14:06. | |
Trump about how Nato can be reshaped, and maybe there will be | :14:07. | :14:10. | |
more burden sharing. That is an important thing for him. You are | :14:11. | :14:15. | |
tipped to be the US ambassador to Brussels, to the EU, and we are | :14:16. | :14:19. | |
still waiting to hear if that will happen. Is it true to say that Mr | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
Trump does not believe in EU integration? I think you made that | :14:25. | :14:34. | |
clear in the speech. He talked about supranational. He does not believe | :14:35. | :14:42. | |
in those kinds of organisations. He is investing himself in bilateral | :14:43. | :14:46. | |
relationships, the first of which will be with the UK. So we have a | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
president who does not believe in EU integration and has been highly | :14:52. | :14:57. | |
critical of Nato. Do the people he has appointed to defend, Secretary | :14:58. | :15:02. | |
of State, national security, do you think that will temper this | :15:03. | :15:06. | |
anti-NATO wretched? Will he come round to a more pro-NATO situation? | :15:07. | :15:14. | |
I think those of us who care about America's situation in the world | :15:15. | :15:19. | |
will come in to miss President Obama a lot. I think the Secretary of | :15:20. | :15:24. | |
State and the faculty of defence will limit the damage and will urge | :15:25. | :15:29. | |
him not to take formal steps to unravel this most powerful and most | :15:30. | :15:34. | |
successful alliance in history, the Nato alliance. But the damage is | :15:35. | :15:40. | |
already being done. When you are the leader of the West, leadership means | :15:41. | :15:45. | |
you are persuading, encouraging, bolstering your leadership and these | :15:46. | :15:51. | |
institutions by the way you speak. Millions, if not hundreds of | :15:52. | :15:55. | |
millions of people, have now heard the US say that what they care about | :15:56. | :15:57. | |
is within their borders. What do you say to that? It is such | :15:58. | :16:06. | |
an overstatement. The point is that Donald Trump is in a Jacksonian | :16:07. | :16:16. | |
tradition of national populism. He is appealing to the people first. | :16:17. | :16:19. | |
The other day, I was sitting below this page during the address, and he | :16:20. | :16:24. | |
said, everyone sitting behind me as part of the problem. Everyone in | :16:25. | :16:28. | |
front of me, the crowd and the crowd on television, is part of the | :16:29. | :16:32. | |
solution, so we are giving the Government back to the people. That | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
emphasis is going to change American life, including American | :16:38. | :16:40. | |
International relations. It doesn't moving the leak back -- it doesn't | :16:41. | :16:49. | |
mean we are moving out of Nato, it simply means we will put our | :16:50. | :16:54. | |
national interests first. There were echoes of Andrew Jackson's | :16:55. | :16:57. | |
inauguration address of 1820. That night, the Jacksonians trashed the | :16:58. | :17:03. | |
White House, but Mr Trump's people didn't do that, so there is a | :17:04. | :17:06. | |
difference there. He also said something else in the address - that | :17:07. | :17:12. | |
protectionism would lead to prosperity. I would suggest there is | :17:13. | :17:19. | |
no evidence for that in the post-war world. He talked about protecting | :17:20. | :17:25. | |
the American worker, American jobs, the American economy. I actually | :17:26. | :17:27. | |
think that Donald Trump will not turn out to be a protectionist. If | :17:28. | :17:35. | |
you read the heart of the deal... This is referring to two Republican | :17:36. | :17:41. | |
senators who introduce massive tariffs in the Hoover | :17:42. | :17:50. | |
administration. Exactly. If you read The Art Of The Deal, you will see | :17:51. | :17:54. | |
how Donald Trump deals with individuals and countries. There is | :17:55. | :17:57. | |
a lot of bluster, positioning, and I think you already see this in | :17:58. | :18:04. | |
bringing jobs by the United States. Things are going to change. Let's | :18:05. | :18:08. | |
also deal with this proposition. China is the biggest loser of this | :18:09. | :18:15. | |
election result. Let me say this: The first time in American history | :18:16. | :18:22. | |
and American president has set forth his view of the world, and it is a | :18:23. | :18:30. | |
mercantile view of the world, who makes more money, who gets more | :18:31. | :18:34. | |
trade, it doesn't look at the shared values, leadership and defends the | :18:35. | :18:39. | |
world needs. The art of the deal has no application to America's | :18:40. | :18:41. | |
leadership of the world, that's what we're learning. You can be a great | :18:42. | :18:47. | |
businessman and make great real estate deals - whether he did not is | :18:48. | :18:51. | |
debatable - but it has nothing to do with inspiring shared values from | :18:52. | :18:56. | |
the West. You saying China may lose, because he may pressure them to | :18:57. | :19:00. | |
reduce their trade deficit with the US. They may or may not. We may both | :19:01. | :19:07. | |
lose. Right now, his Secretary of State has said, and I think he will | :19:08. | :19:10. | |
walk this back when he is brief, that they will prevent the Chinese | :19:11. | :19:15. | |
from entering these islands in the South China Sea. If they were to do | :19:16. | :19:19. | |
that, it would be a blockade, and there would be a shooting war | :19:20. | :19:23. | |
between the United States and China, so US - China relations are the most | :19:24. | :19:28. | |
important bilateral relationship of the United States, and they don't | :19:29. | :19:31. | |
lend themselves to the bluff and bluster that may have worked when | :19:32. | :19:36. | |
you are trying to get a big building on second Ave in Manhattan. Is China | :19:37. | :19:41. | |
the biggest loser? I think the Chinese have a lot to lose. Gigi and | :19:42. | :19:57. | |
Ping was in Davos this week -- Xi Jin Ping was in Davos. | :19:58. | :20:03. | |
Is Germany the second biggest loser in the sense that I understand he | :20:04. | :20:09. | |
hasn't agreed time to see Angela Merkel yet, also that those close to | :20:10. | :20:17. | |
him believe that Germany is guilty of currency manipulation by adopting | :20:18. | :20:20. | |
a weak your row instead of the strong Deutschmark, and that that is | :20:21. | :20:24. | |
why they are running a huge balance of payments surplus with the United | :20:25. | :20:30. | |
States. American - German relations may not be great. There is a point | :20:31. | :20:35. | |
of view throughout Europe. You only have to talk to the southern | :20:36. | :20:39. | |
Europeans about this question. It seems like the euro has been aligned | :20:40. | :20:43. | |
to benefit Germany. Joe Stiglitz, the famous left of centre Democrat | :20:44. | :20:49. | |
economist, made the same case in a recent book. In this case, I think | :20:50. | :20:56. | |
Germany will be put under the spotlight. Angela Merkel has shown | :20:57. | :21:00. | |
herself to be the most respected and the most successful leader in | :21:01. | :21:04. | |
herself to be the most respected and Europe. We who care about the West, | :21:05. | :21:07. | |
who care about the shared values of the West, should pray and hope that | :21:08. | :21:11. | |
she is re-elected. This isn't about dollars and cents. We're living in a | :21:12. | :21:16. | |
time whether Russian leader has another country in Europe and for | :21:17. | :21:21. | |
some inexplicable reason, the American president, who can use his | :21:22. | :21:27. | |
insult diplomacy on everyone, including Mrs Merkel, the only | :21:28. | :21:33. | |
person he can't seem to find anything to criticise about is Mr | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
Putin. There are things more important than the actual details of | :21:38. | :21:40. | |
your currency. There are things like preventing another war in Europe, | :21:41. | :21:44. | |
preventing a war between the Chinese and the US. You talk about the | :21:45. | :21:51. | |
Trident missile all morning, nuclear deterrence is extremely important. | :21:52. | :21:55. | |
It doesn't lend itself to the bluff and bluster of a real estate deal. I | :21:56. | :21:59. | |
understand all that, but the fact we are even talking about these things | :22:00. | :22:03. | |
shows the new world we are moving into. I'd like to get you both to | :22:04. | :22:08. | |
react to this. This is a man that ended the Bush Dynasty, a man that | :22:09. | :22:16. | |
beat the Clinton machine. In his inauguration, not only did he not | :22:17. | :22:19. | |
reach out to the Democrats, he didn't even mention the Republicans. | :22:20. | :22:24. | |
These are changed days for us. They are, and change can be good or | :22:25. | :22:28. | |
disastrous. I'm worried that it's easy in the world of diplomacy and | :22:29. | :22:33. | |
in them -- for the leadership of the United States to break relationships | :22:34. | :22:38. | |
and ruin alliances. These are things that were carefully nurtured. George | :22:39. | :22:47. | |
Schultz, the American Secretary of State under Reagan talked about | :22:48. | :22:51. | |
gardening, the slow, careful creation of a place with bilateral | :22:52. | :22:56. | |
relationships that were blossoming and flowering multilateral | :22:57. | :22:58. | |
relationships that take decades to create, and he will throw them away | :22:59. | :23:02. | |
in a matter of days. The final word... I work for George Schultz. | :23:03. | :23:08. | |
He was a Marine who stood up America, defended America, who would | :23:09. | :23:12. | |
be in favour of many of the things that Donald Trump and the tramp | :23:13. | :23:18. | |
Administration... Give him a call. His top aide macs that I've spoken | :23:19. | :23:23. | |
to are appalled by Mr Trump's abdication of leadership. He is | :23:24. | :23:27. | |
going to our radically -- he's going to eradicate extremist Islam from | :23:28. | :23:35. | |
the face of the year. Is that realistic? I know people in the | :23:36. | :23:38. | |
national security realm have worked on a plan. They say they will have | :23:39. | :23:42. | |
such a plan in some detail within 90 days. Lets hope they succeed. We | :23:43. | :23:51. | |
have run out of time. As a issues. Thank you, both. -- fascinating | :23:52. | :23:52. | |
issues. So Theresa May promised a big speech | :23:53. | :23:56. | |
on Brexit, and this week - perhaps against expectation - | :23:57. | :23:59. | |
she delivered, trying to answer claims that the government didn't | :24:00. | :24:01. | |
have a plan with an explicit wish-list of what she hopes to | :24:02. | :24:04. | |
achieve in negotiations with the EU. To her allies it was ambitious, | :24:05. | :24:07. | |
bold, optimistic - to her opponents it was full | :24:08. | :24:09. | |
of contradictions There are speeches, | :24:10. | :24:11. | |
and there are speeches. Like Theresa May's 12 principles | :24:12. | :24:19. | |
for a Brexit deal leading to the UK fully out of the EU | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
but still friendly in terms This agreement should allow | :24:24. | :24:26. | |
for the freest possible trade in goods and services between | :24:27. | :24:30. | |
Britain and the EU's member states. It should give British | :24:31. | :24:32. | |
companies the maximum operate within European markets | :24:33. | :24:38. | |
and let European businesses do She also said no deal would be | :24:39. | :24:41. | |
better than the wrong deal, We want to test what people think | :24:42. | :24:49. | |
about what she's just said. Do we have any of our | :24:50. | :25:05. | |
future negotiating As the European Parliament | :25:06. | :25:07. | |
voted for its new president, its chief | :25:08. | :25:12. | |
negotiator sounded off. Saying, OK, if our European | :25:13. | :25:20. | |
counterparts don't accept it, we're going to make | :25:21. | :25:22. | |
from Britain a sort of free zone or tax haven, | :25:23. | :25:25. | |
I The Prime Minister of Malta, | :25:26. | :25:27. | |
the country that's assumed the EU's rotating presidency, | :25:28. | :25:34. | |
spoke in sorrow and a bit of anger. We want a fair deal | :25:35. | :25:37. | |
for the United Kingdom, but that deal necessarily needs to be | :25:38. | :25:41. | |
inferior to membership. Next, let's hear | :25:42. | :25:51. | |
from some enthusiastic leavers, like, I don't | :25:52. | :25:54. | |
know, the Daily Mail? The paper lapped it up | :25:55. | :25:59. | |
with this adoring front page. For Brexiteers, it was | :26:00. | :26:02. | |
all manna from heaven. I think today means we are a big | :26:03. | :26:06. | |
step closer to becoming an independent country again, | :26:07. | :26:09. | |
with control of our own laws, I was chuckling at some of it, | :26:10. | :26:11. | |
to be honest, because There were various phrases there | :26:12. | :26:17. | |
which I've used myself again and Do we have any of those | :26:18. | :26:21. | |
so-called Remoaners? There will, at the end | :26:22. | :26:26. | |
of this deal process, so politicians get to vote | :26:27. | :26:28. | |
on the stitch-up, but We take the view as | :26:29. | :26:32. | |
Liberal Democrats that if this process started | :26:33. | :26:35. | |
with democracy last June, We trusted the people | :26:36. | :26:37. | |
with departure, we must trust them Do we have anyone from | :26:38. | :26:41. | |
Labour, or are you all watching it in a small | :26:42. | :26:48. | |
room somewhere? Throughout the speech, there seemed | :26:49. | :26:49. | |
to be an implied threat that somewhere along the line, | :26:50. | :26:57. | |
if all her optimism of a deal with the European Union didn't work, | :26:58. | :27:00. | |
we would move into a low-tax, corporate taxation, | :27:01. | :27:02. | |
bargain-basement economy on the I think she needs to be | :27:03. | :27:04. | |
a bit clearer about what The Labour leader | :27:05. | :27:08. | |
suggested he'd tell his MPs to vote in favour | :27:09. | :27:15. | |
of starting a Brexit process if Parliament was given the choice, | :27:16. | :27:18. | |
sparking a mini pre-revolt among Finally, do we have anyone | :27:19. | :27:20. | |
from big business here? Of course, your all in Davos | :27:21. | :27:26. | |
at the World Economic Clarity, first of all, really | :27:27. | :27:35. | |
codified what many of us have been anticipating since | :27:36. | :27:45. | |
the referendum result, particularly around | :27:46. | :27:47. | |
the I think what we've also seen | :27:48. | :27:48. | |
today is the Government's willingness to put a bit of edge | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
into the negotiating dynamic, and I Trade negotiations are negotiations, | :27:53. | :27:55. | |
and you have to lay out, and you have to be pretty tough | :27:56. | :28:00. | |
to get what you want. Although some business people | :28:01. | :28:02. | |
on the slopes speculated about moving some of their | :28:03. | :28:04. | |
operations out of Brexit Britain. We saw there the instant reaction | :28:05. | :28:07. | |
of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, but how will the party respond | :28:08. | :28:25. | |
to the challenge posed by Brexit Well, I'm joined now by the Shadow | :28:26. | :28:28. | |
Home Secretary, Diane Abbott. People know that Ukip and the Tories | :28:29. | :28:37. | |
are for Brexit. The Lib Dems are four remain. What is Labour for? For | :28:38. | :28:42. | |
respecting the result of the referendum. It was a 72% turnout, | :28:43. | :28:48. | |
very high for an election of that nature, and we believe you have to | :28:49. | :28:51. | |
respect that result. You couldn't have a situation where people like | :28:52. | :28:55. | |
Tim Farron are saying to people, millions of people, sorry, you got | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
it wrong, we in London no better. However, how the Tories go forward | :29:00. | :29:04. | |
from here has to be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. Is it Shadow | :29:05. | :29:10. | |
Cabinet policy to vote for the triggering of Article 50? Our policy | :29:11. | :29:15. | |
is not to block Article 50. That is what the leader was saying this | :29:16. | :29:22. | |
morning. So are you for it? Our policy is not to block it. You are | :29:23. | :29:27. | |
talking about voting for it. We don't know what the Supreme Court is | :29:28. | :29:33. | |
going to say, and we don't know what legislation Government will bring | :29:34. | :29:35. | |
forward, and we don't know what amendment we will move, but we're | :29:36. | :29:41. | |
clear that we will not vote to block it. OK, so you won't bow to stop it, | :29:42. | :29:45. | |
but you could abstain? No, what we will do... Either you vote for or | :29:46. | :29:53. | |
against all you abstain. There are too many unanswered questions. For | :29:54. | :29:57. | |
instance, the position of EU migrants working and living in this | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
country. You may not get the answer to that before Article 50 comes | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
before the Commons, so what would you do then? We are giving to amend | :30:07. | :30:11. | |
it. We can only tell you exactly how we will amend it when we understand | :30:12. | :30:15. | |
what sort of legislation the Government is putting forward, and | :30:16. | :30:19. | |
in the course of moving those amendments, we will ask the | :30:20. | :30:23. | |
questions that the people of Britain whether they voted to leave remain | :30:24. | :30:24. | |
want answered. When you come to a collective view, | :30:25. | :30:35. | |
will there be a three line whip? I can't tell you, because we have not | :30:36. | :30:39. | |
seen the government 's legislation. But when you see it, you will come | :30:40. | :30:47. | |
to a collective view. Many regard this as extremely important. Will | :30:48. | :30:51. | |
there be a three line whip on Labour's collective view? Because it | :30:52. | :30:56. | |
is important, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. When we see what the | :30:57. | :31:01. | |
Supreme Court says, and crucially, when we see what the government | :31:02. | :31:06. | |
position is, you will hear what the whipping is. Will shadow ministers | :31:07. | :31:12. | |
be able to defy any three line whip on this? That is not normally the | :31:13. | :31:18. | |
case. But they did on an early vote that the government introduced on | :31:19. | :31:23. | |
Article 50. Those who voted against it are still there. In the Blair | :31:24. | :31:28. | |
years, you certainly couldn't defy a three line whip. We will see what | :31:29. | :31:33. | |
happens going forward. I remember when the Tories were hopelessly | :31:34. | :31:39. | |
divided over the EU. All these Maastricht votes and an list | :31:40. | :31:44. | |
arguments. Now it is Labour. Just another symptom of Mr Corbyn's poor | :31:45. | :31:49. | |
leadership. Not at all. Two thirds voted to leave, a third to remain. | :31:50. | :32:01. | |
We are seeking to bring the country and the party together. We will do | :32:02. | :32:06. | |
that by pointing out how disastrous a Tory Brexit would be. Meanwhile, | :32:07. | :32:16. | |
around 80 Labour MPs will defy a three line whip. It's too early to | :32:17. | :32:22. | |
say that. Will you publish what you believe the negotiating goal should | :32:23. | :32:27. | |
be? We are clear on it. We think that the economy, jobs and living | :32:28. | :32:32. | |
standards should be the priority. What Theresa May is saying is that | :32:33. | :32:37. | |
holding her party together is her priority. She is putting party above | :32:38. | :32:42. | |
country. Does Labour think we should remain members of the single market? | :32:43. | :32:48. | |
Ideally, in terms of jobs and the economy, of course. Ritt -ish | :32:49. | :32:55. | |
business thinks that as well. Is Labour policy that we should remain | :32:56. | :32:58. | |
a member of the single market? Labour leaves that jobs and the | :32:59. | :33:02. | |
economy comes first, and if they come first, you would want to remain | :33:03. | :33:09. | |
part of the single market. But to remain a member? Jobs and the | :33:10. | :33:15. | |
economy comes first, and to do that, ideally, guess. So with that, comes | :33:16. | :33:20. | |
free movement of people, the jurisdiction of the European, and a | :33:21. | :33:24. | |
free movement of people, the multi-million never shipped thief. | :33:25. | :33:30. | |
Is Labour prepared to pay that? Money is neither here nor there. | :33:31. | :33:35. | |
Because the Tories will be asked to pay a lot of money... The EU has | :33:36. | :33:41. | |
made it clear that you cannot pay a lot of money... The EU has | :33:42. | :33:48. | |
have... I am asking for Labour's position. Our position is rooted in | :33:49. | :33:54. | |
the reality, and the reality is that you cannot have the benefits of the | :33:55. | :33:58. | |
member of the European Union, including being a member of the | :33:59. | :34:02. | |
single market, without responsibility, including free | :34:03. | :34:07. | |
movement of people. Free movement, is remaining under the jurisdiction | :34:08. | :34:08. | |
of the European Court of Justice. Is is remaining under the jurisdiction | :34:09. | :34:17. | |
that the Labour position? You've said that Labour wants to remain a | :34:18. | :34:21. | |
member of the single market. That is the price tag that comes with it. | :34:22. | :34:26. | |
Does Labour agree with paying that price tag? We are not pre-empting | :34:27. | :34:32. | |
negotiation. Our goals are protect jobs and the British economy. Is it | :34:33. | :34:37. | |
Labour's position that we remain a member of the customs union? Well, | :34:38. | :34:46. | |
if we don't, I don't see how Theresa May can keep our promises and has | :34:47. | :34:56. | |
unfettered access... You said Labour's position was clear. It is! | :34:57. | :35:05. | |
It is clear that Theresa May... I am not asking about Theresa May. Is it | :35:06. | :35:11. | |
Labour's position to remain a member of the customs union? It is Labour's | :35:12. | :35:17. | |
position to do what is right for British industry. Depending on how | :35:18. | :35:20. | |
the negotiations go, it may prove that coming out of the customs | :35:21. | :35:25. | |
union, as Theresa May has indicated she wants to do, could prove | :35:26. | :35:31. | |
catastrophic, and could actually destroy some of her promises. You do | :35:32. | :35:37. | |
accept that if we are member of the customs union, we cannot do our own | :35:38. | :35:44. | |
free trade deals? What free trade deals are you talking about? The | :35:45. | :35:50. | |
ones that Labour might want to do in the future. First, we have to | :35:51. | :35:54. | |
ones that Labour might want to do in protect British jobs and British | :35:55. | :35:57. | |
industries. If you are talking about free trade deals with Donald Trump, | :35:58. | :36:01. | |
the danger is that Theresa May will get drawn into a free-trade deal | :36:02. | :36:07. | |
with America that will open up the NHS to American corporate... The | :36:08. | :36:14. | |
cards are in Theresa May's hands. If she takes us out of the single | :36:15. | :36:19. | |
market, if she takes us out of the customs union, we will have to deal | :36:20. | :36:23. | |
with that. How big a crisis for Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour | :36:24. | :36:26. | |
loses both by-elections in February. Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour | :36:27. | :36:32. | |
I don't believe we will lose both. But if he did? I am not anticipating | :36:33. | :36:41. | |
that. Is Labour lost two seats in a midterm of a Tory government, would | :36:42. | :36:45. | |
that be business as usual? I'm not prepared to see us lose those seats, | :36:46. | :36:49. | |
so I will not talk about something that will not happen. Thank you. | :36:50. | :36:52. | |
You're watching the Sunday Politics. | :36:53. | :36:54. | |
We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now | :36:55. | :37:05. | |
Scotland's Brexit Minister, Michael Russell, tells us SNP MPs | :37:06. | :37:12. | |
will vote against triggering Article 50, no matter how it's amended. | :37:13. | :37:15. | |
How concerned are Scotland's importers about Brexit? | :37:16. | :37:23. | |
We have got to trust our negotiators at the end of the day. I'm sure they | :37:24. | :37:29. | |
are doing their very best for Britain. | :37:30. | :37:29. | |
And did Theresa May choose politics over economics when she set | :37:30. | :37:32. | |
This week, the Supreme Court will deliver its verdict over | :37:33. | :37:38. | |
whether MPs should have a vote over the triggering of Article 50. | :37:39. | :37:41. | |
But Scotland's Brexit Minister says SNP MPs would vote against any bill. | :37:42. | :37:45. | |
Before we came on air, I spoke to Michael Russell | :37:46. | :37:47. | |
We can talk about Brexit in a minute, but Theresa May has just | :37:48. | :38:04. | |
been on the Andrew Marr programme and she refused to say whether she | :38:05. | :38:09. | |
knew about this alleged Trident missile misfiring at the time the | :38:10. | :38:14. | |
renewal of Trident was debated in Parliament last year. Is that | :38:15. | :38:20. | |
acceptable? It is unacceptable. Trident is a very serious issue, an | :38:21. | :38:26. | |
issue where there needs to be transparency. If people had knowing | :38:27. | :38:30. | |
what had happened they would, at the very least, have asked some | :38:31. | :38:36. | |
questions. This is wrong and using secrecy to overcome democratic | :38:37. | :38:41. | |
scrutiny. What will the SNP group in Parliament do about this? My | :38:42. | :38:46. | |
colleagues will want to pursue this very firmly. They will want to find | :38:47. | :38:53. | |
out when the Government knew, what the new, and why they did not give | :38:54. | :38:56. | |
that information in the House of Commons. Theresa May does not want | :38:57. | :39:02. | |
the House of Commons to be involved in any scrutiny, which is wrong and | :39:03. | :39:06. | |
needs to be overcome. You will see vigorous action by the SNP. There | :39:07. | :39:13. | |
are reports this morning found New Cross Parliamentary group at | :39:14. | :39:16. | |
Westminster which, should the Supreme Court decides there will | :39:17. | :39:23. | |
have to be bought in Article 50, the triggering off it, they plan to | :39:24. | :39:27. | |
Britain amendments to soften some of the things that Theresa May said in | :39:28. | :39:32. | |
her speech last week. Is that something be SNP supports? Had he | :39:33. | :39:37. | |
been involved in these talks? I think the SNP MPs had been involved | :39:38. | :39:44. | |
in many talks, but it will also be bringing Ford amendments. Whether it | :39:45. | :39:48. | |
is part of that process are complementary to it remains to be | :39:49. | :39:53. | |
seen. All bills can be amended. The difference in position is what | :39:54. | :39:56. | |
happens at the end of the day when the bill is voted on and in the | :39:57. | :40:01. | |
present circumstances I don't think there is any possibility of the SNP | :40:02. | :40:10. | |
MPs supporting Article 50. If there is a legislative consent motion in | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
the Scottish Parliament, as I presumed will be, we will be voting | :40:14. | :40:18. | |
against that process. It does in Article 50 is not just endorsing the | :40:19. | :40:22. | |
vote in the United Kingdom, the vote in Scotland was very different, it | :40:23. | :40:26. | |
is endorsing the position that Theresa May has taken on Brexit and | :40:27. | :40:31. | |
endorsing the type of country that she wants. She wants an isolationist | :40:32. | :40:35. | |
country, one that is in Word looking, and one that is rejecting | :40:36. | :40:40. | |
the benefits of migration. That is not the country any of us want | :40:41. | :40:45. | |
Scotland to be. That is the strongest reason for rejecting it. | :40:46. | :40:50. | |
Will the SNP vote against triggering article 15 or matter how it is | :40:51. | :40:58. | |
amended? Absolutely. I cannot conceive of circumstances where we | :40:59. | :40:59. | |
would support the triggering conceive of circumstances where we | :41:00. | :41:04. | |
Article 50. It takes this issue forward in an unacceptable way and | :41:05. | :41:09. | |
takes the type of Brexit forwarded an unacceptable way and it declares | :41:10. | :41:13. | |
the type of country that Theresa May once this country to be, and that is | :41:14. | :41:18. | |
not the country that me or my colleagues or Scotland wants to be. | :41:19. | :41:26. | |
There was a meeting you were at this week, a group are going to study the | :41:27. | :41:30. | |
proposals in your paper on Brexit. Have you been given any reason to | :41:31. | :41:35. | |
believe that the British Government will adopt the proposal you put | :41:36. | :41:43. | |
forward in that paper? The first of the proposals in the paper has been | :41:44. | :41:47. | |
rejected by the Prime Minister without consultation or discussion. | :41:48. | :41:50. | |
Not only did she say so two days before the Committee met, there was | :41:51. | :41:58. | |
no paper on Thursday saying that this was what the Prime Minister had | :41:59. | :42:02. | |
decided and five. There was an agreement on Thursday to look at the | :42:03. | :42:06. | |
other proposals, the proposals to do with Scotland remaining and the | :42:07. | :42:10. | |
single market and on the customs union and on further devolution. | :42:11. | :42:16. | |
They can look at those in detail and they are perfectly achievable. They | :42:17. | :42:21. | |
will be hard, but they are achievable. That is the position we | :42:22. | :42:26. | |
are now in. There was a feeling of frustration for the devolved | :42:27. | :42:29. | |
administrations on Thursday because we were faced with decisions made | :42:30. | :42:35. | |
outside the Committee, no respect for the Committee at the devolved | :42:36. | :42:38. | |
institutions, and the reasons given. We still have not seen the workings | :42:39. | :42:41. | |
that Theresa May used to say we should not be in the single market. | :42:42. | :42:47. | |
When you said after the meeting that the clock is ticking, what did you | :42:48. | :42:53. | |
mean? The clock is ticking on the process we are engaged in because | :42:54. | :43:00. | |
that has got to be real, there has to be a work programme that makes | :43:01. | :43:04. | |
sense. The clock is also taking in terms of an independence referendum | :43:05. | :43:09. | |
because there is an alternative to the present situation. We really | :43:10. | :43:15. | |
want to try and get a negotiated solution, we put everything into | :43:16. | :43:21. | |
that, but it does not appear that is being paid any respect or given any | :43:22. | :43:26. | |
consideration, because this is a very well worked out series of | :43:27. | :43:31. | |
proposals. The clock is ticking and this is not a process that will last | :43:32. | :43:36. | |
forever. Article 50 is meant to be triggered by the end of March, but | :43:37. | :43:40. | |
we have not seen a scrap of paper to see what will be in this letter, we | :43:41. | :43:45. | |
have not seen the working that has gone into that, and we have not been | :43:46. | :43:49. | |
consulted despite reference to joint ministerial Committee. Supporters of | :43:50. | :43:59. | |
Theresa May and her Government has said saying that the clock is | :44:00. | :44:03. | |
ticking and continuing to threaten an independence referendum does not | :44:04. | :44:07. | |
mean anything. We can read the polling figures as well as you can | :44:08. | :44:12. | |
and we know that is not a majority in Scotland for independence, with | :44:13. | :44:15. | |
even less support for another independence referendum. All your | :44:16. | :44:20. | |
talk of clocks ticking and the threat of another referendum does | :44:21. | :44:24. | |
not put any pressure on us, they would say. How would you reply to | :44:25. | :44:30. | |
that? There is no threat to be made. We said at the beginning of this | :44:31. | :44:33. | |
process there were a series of options that needed to be considered | :44:34. | :44:38. | |
and went through this carefully. We also said there was a democratic | :44:39. | :44:43. | |
mandate to hold another referendum if we were taken out of Europe | :44:44. | :44:48. | |
against our well. My point is, given the way that the polling figures | :44:49. | :44:51. | |
are, it does not look like it is wanted. I don't think there is any | :44:52. | :44:57. | |
doubt that a campaign focused on the type of country we want to live and | :44:58. | :45:02. | |
would be a very effective campaign indeed. If you look at where the | :45:03. | :45:07. | |
polls were at the start of the campaign for the 2014 referendum and | :45:08. | :45:10. | |
where they ended up, the possibility of significant progress absolutely | :45:11. | :45:17. | |
exists. We're looking at the options carefully one by one and we are this | :45:18. | :45:22. | |
in a rational way and unlike the UK Government. It is possible to move | :45:23. | :45:28. | |
forward on a well worked out compromise position and that is | :45:29. | :45:33. | |
still on the table. There are no threats being made, we are working | :45:34. | :45:37. | |
our way through a logical set of options. I wish the people that we | :45:38. | :45:44. | |
are negotiating with were as logical as we are. You said in the paper you | :45:45. | :45:48. | |
produced that you seem to accept that should your idea of Scotland | :45:49. | :45:52. | |
joining the European Union free-trade area and staying in the | :45:53. | :45:57. | |
single market, that to get anywhere with that you would need the | :45:58. | :46:01. | |
sponsorship of the British Government. Have you formally as the | :46:02. | :46:05. | |
British Government to sponsor that? It is in the paper... Have you as | :46:06. | :46:14. | |
the? Should the UK Government agree that there should be in the | :46:15. | :46:19. | |
negotiating position for Article 50, they would be expected to do that | :46:20. | :46:23. | |
and at the appropriate minute we will see that needs to go in the | :46:24. | :46:27. | |
letter. There is another way to do that which is to give the Scottish | :46:28. | :46:33. | |
Parliament the powers, the treaty powers, for its devolved areas and | :46:34. | :46:38. | |
to give a legal personality. That is what happened in Belgium with the | :46:39. | :46:43. | |
devolved parliaments there. There are options within this paper. As of | :46:44. | :46:51. | |
now, the British Government has given you no indication that it | :46:52. | :46:55. | |
would either sponsor Scotland's in doing this, which would mean the | :46:56. | :47:01. | |
British Government would have to negotiate with the other 27 members | :47:02. | :47:05. | |
of the European Union over this, nor have they given you any indication | :47:06. | :47:09. | |
that they would give you the legislative power to do it yourself. | :47:10. | :47:16. | |
Is that correct? As of now, we are in the joint process of examining | :47:17. | :47:23. | |
the process in the paper. It is being considered by officials on | :47:24. | :47:27. | |
both sides with the involvement of ministers. That is the position we | :47:28. | :47:31. | |
are in and that is the position that we want to lead, but in the Article | :47:32. | :47:36. | |
50 letter there will be a section that says this is what we want to | :47:37. | :47:41. | |
see happen with Scotland, we will undergo shapeless, and we will | :47:42. | :47:45. | |
support the United Kingdom Government in negotiating that | :47:46. | :47:49. | |
position if they decide to put that in the article 15 letter. But they | :47:50. | :47:52. | |
have not said they will support this? This paper is being debated | :47:53. | :47:59. | |
and discussed. We will support the United Kingdom Government of | :48:00. | :48:02. | |
drafting that section of the Article 50 letter and on the negotiations on | :48:03. | :48:06. | |
choose a degree that should happen. choose a degree that should happen. | :48:07. | :48:13. | |
-- if they choose to agree. The other devolved administrations know | :48:14. | :48:16. | |
how important this servers and Northern Ireland the situation is | :48:17. | :48:22. | |
more serious. 15% of Scotland's exports go to the European Union, | :48:23. | :48:28. | |
compared to over 60% to the rest of the United Kingdom. Can we take it | :48:29. | :48:34. | |
that if you do have another referendum campaign, that you will | :48:35. | :48:37. | |
propose as single market with the UK? Of course, because we have | :48:38. | :48:44. | |
proposed that before. We said that we did not expect there to be any | :48:45. | :48:50. | |
interruption in trade. You can look at this to the other end of the | :48:51. | :48:54. | |
telescope and say that is what the rest of the United Kingdom is saying | :48:55. | :48:59. | |
about the EU and its continuing arrangements. We want to continue to | :49:00. | :49:04. | |
trade. Anyone who says there is an either or is malicious or mistaken. | :49:05. | :49:11. | |
ICU yacht is waiting to take you away so we better leave it there. | :49:12. | :49:17. | |
Thank you. I'm afraid not, but thank you. | :49:18. | :49:23. | |
The Prime Minister this week confirmed what most of us | :49:24. | :49:25. | |
Britain will leave the European single market. | :49:26. | :49:28. | |
Theresa May promised to push instead for the "freest possible trade" | :49:29. | :49:30. | |
with Europe but reaching a deal before we leave seems, | :49:31. | :49:33. | |
at this stage, well, at the very least debatable. | :49:34. | :49:35. | |
In the meantime, our imports and exports could be | :49:36. | :49:37. | |
Graham Stewart's been finding out how that might affect Scotland's | :49:38. | :49:40. | |
We have here, Graham, wines from Bordeaux on the left-hand side. At a | :49:41. | :49:53. | |
wine importers of Livingston, free trade with Europe is essential to | :49:54. | :50:00. | |
their business. And these ones here? You are a man of expensive taste but | :50:01. | :50:06. | |
quality. This is from 2006, very good vintage. Whether it is a fine | :50:07. | :50:11. | |
claret or a cheeky Chardonnay, Brexit will not end our love affair | :50:12. | :50:13. | |
with fine wines, but the future does Brexit will not end our love affair | :50:14. | :50:19. | |
not look so rosy. The wine trade has survived the Reformation, the union | :50:20. | :50:24. | |
of Parliament and during the Jacobite area, nationals took to | :50:25. | :50:29. | |
claret as a portion to report as a sign of their independence. But how | :50:30. | :50:32. | |
will the wine trade survived Brexit? The immediate impact was on the | :50:33. | :50:38. | |
foreign exchange, we import all of our products from abroad, both | :50:39. | :50:41. | |
within the European Community or from out with, Australia, South | :50:42. | :50:50. | |
America, South Africa... There was a 20% drop in foreign exchange for 20% | :50:51. | :50:57. | |
increase in our costs. And that this before Brexit has even happened. The | :50:58. | :51:00. | |
Prime Minister last week was optimistic that Britain can strike a | :51:01. | :51:04. | |
new free trade deal with Europe, but all the signs so far suggest | :51:05. | :51:09. | |
European leaders are unwilling to start negotiating a deal until after | :51:10. | :51:14. | |
we leave. So how long do trade negotiations normally take? The | :51:15. | :51:19. | |
answer is there is no normal. The US and the EU started to put together a | :51:20. | :51:23. | |
deal and said they would do it within 18 months. We are still | :51:24. | :51:27. | |
trying to negotiate that and it may die with Mr Trump coming to power, | :51:28. | :51:32. | |
but that is still going on for years later. Quite a few negotiations... I | :51:33. | :51:37. | |
have known negotiations that have been going for ten years and have | :51:38. | :51:42. | |
not been completed. In the intron, Britain might have to operate under | :51:43. | :51:45. | |
the rules of the World Trade Organisation and that would mean | :51:46. | :51:48. | |
tariffs on imports and exports, which would impose costs on our | :51:49. | :51:54. | |
industries. There are wide range of tariffs, some are zero, a lot of | :51:55. | :52:00. | |
trade is zero. But others are quite high, from motor cars, for example, | :52:01. | :52:06. | |
the tariff is 10%, that adds 10% onto the price. There are other | :52:07. | :52:10. | |
areas where it is even higher, particularly for food. Forlan, for | :52:11. | :52:15. | |
example, there is a percentage tariff of 12.8% and then on top that | :52:16. | :52:29. | |
you is a 1700 euros export that has been paid to get the lamb into the | :52:30. | :52:32. | |
EU offer the EU to get Islam into the UK. That has set off alarm bells | :52:33. | :52:35. | |
in Scotland's food and rent industries that are worried about | :52:36. | :52:38. | |
becoming a bargaining chip in any trade negotiations. In Scotland we | :52:39. | :52:44. | |
represent 19% of all manufacturing jobs and another ?14 million to the | :52:45. | :52:48. | |
economy. That is enormously important to the economy of Scotland | :52:49. | :52:52. | |
and our concern is that if food and drink is not privatised in those | :52:53. | :52:55. | |
negotiations, huge and important jobs will be lost. -- is not | :52:56. | :53:03. | |
prioritised. And at Scotland's oldest delicatessen, it might in | :53:04. | :53:06. | |
future cost more to buy your favourite Italian cheese. But as a | :53:07. | :53:11. | |
company, they are not using the head just yet. We must trust our | :53:12. | :53:16. | |
negotiators at the end of the day and I am sure they are doing their | :53:17. | :53:24. | |
very best for Britain. I also guess that we still are in the EEC for the | :53:25. | :53:30. | |
next two years until we are out. So life must continue. So there does | :53:31. | :53:36. | |
not worry about it, let us think about it and hopefully influence, | :53:37. | :53:39. | |
but we have two years to go yet. Still, that does not give the | :53:40. | :53:43. | |
Britain much time to find experienced negotiators who know | :53:44. | :53:48. | |
their onions, but if the civil service is looking for | :53:49. | :53:51. | |
inspiration... There is a man in the White House who is good at making | :53:52. | :53:53. | |
deals. Now, before her speech this week, | :53:54. | :53:56. | |
all we really knew about the UK Government's plans for Brexit | :53:57. | :54:00. | |
were that it means Brexit. Then this week we got a glimpse of | :54:01. | :54:02. | |
what Theresa May's plans might be... It was a vote to restore as we see | :54:03. | :54:13. | |
it our parliamentary democracy, national survey termination and to | :54:14. | :54:18. | |
become even more global and internationalist in action and in | :54:19. | :54:23. | |
spirit. And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership between an | :54:24. | :54:27. | |
independent self-governing global Britain and our friends and allies | :54:28. | :54:29. | |
in the EU. But the Prime Minister's speech has | :54:30. | :54:31. | |
led some commentators to conclude that Theresa May has favoured | :54:32. | :54:33. | |
the political argument With me to discuss this, | :54:34. | :54:35. | |
in Edinburgh, is Christina Boswell, who's Professor of Politics | :54:36. | :54:39. | |
at the University of Edinburgh, and in our Dundee studio | :54:40. | :54:41. | |
is Brad MacKay, Professor of Strategic Management | :54:42. | :54:43. | |
at the University of St Andrews. Christina Boswell, you think that | :54:44. | :54:55. | |
politics are winning on this, do you? It is always politics, isn't | :54:56. | :55:00. | |
it? We are used to the idea that the economy is a very salient issue for | :55:01. | :55:04. | |
voters, so they typically put the economy at the top of the robust | :55:05. | :55:08. | |
when deciding what position to support. In this case, Theresa May | :55:09. | :55:13. | |
had all made a calculation that economics is not such a salient | :55:14. | :55:24. | |
issue in regard to Brexit and you must remember that the economic | :55:25. | :55:26. | |
prognosis about the effect of Brexit on the UK economy are fairly complex | :55:27. | :55:29. | |
and abstract. It is not immediately clear to many voters how leaving the | :55:30. | :55:32. | |
EU will affect them economically and I think also people are quite wary | :55:33. | :55:36. | |
about different economic forecasts, they are not necessarily trusting, | :55:37. | :55:39. | |
they do not find incredible because they have been politicised, people | :55:40. | :55:43. | |
see them as partisan claims supporting different positions and I | :55:44. | :55:46. | |
think finally, there is another issue around the economy, which is | :55:47. | :55:49. | |
that the type of national indicators that we typically used to measure | :55:50. | :55:53. | |
economic performance do not necessarily resonate with people's | :55:54. | :55:58. | |
experience at the moment. We are told GDP is rising and that | :55:59. | :56:01. | |
employment figures are strong and rising, but that does not | :56:02. | :56:04. | |
necessarily correspond to how people feel in their lives. Into the vacuum | :56:05. | :56:09. | |
then steps these more emotive and perhaps more compelling arguments | :56:10. | :56:16. | |
about identity, immigration. Brad MacKay, Theresa May would tell you | :56:17. | :56:19. | |
she is not putting politics ahead of economics, she has an economic plan. | :56:20. | :56:25. | |
There is an economic plan, that is the certainly come out of the single | :56:26. | :56:27. | |
market and possibly come out of the certainly come out of the single | :56:28. | :56:31. | |
customs union and then to launch on this global strategy of striking | :56:32. | :56:35. | |
deals across the world. One of the issues and Christina has touched on | :56:36. | :56:38. | |
it is that there are lot of contradictions that exist and are | :56:39. | :56:46. | |
being brought about by taking a more political line or putting political | :56:47. | :56:48. | |
issues at the forefront of the government's strategy. | :56:49. | :56:52. | |
issues at the forefront of the economists say trade is one area of | :56:53. | :56:54. | |
economics that is pretty straight forward and if you leave the | :56:55. | :57:00. | |
European Union, it will harm Britain's trade, not just with the | :57:01. | :57:03. | |
European Union but the rest of the world. Did you agree with that or do | :57:04. | :57:06. | |
you think there is a possibility that we could do some of the very | :57:07. | :57:09. | |
successful deals that Theresa May would like to do? I think that the | :57:10. | :57:14. | |
government has set out a very ambitious strategy and as a said | :57:15. | :57:19. | |
before, there are a lot of different contradictions. For example, coming | :57:20. | :57:24. | |
out of the single market, certainly coming out of the customs union and | :57:25. | :57:27. | |
then trying to replicate that on either a sectorial basis on in its | :57:28. | :57:32. | |
entirety but without some of those political issues that will be | :57:33. | :57:35. | |
important for the European Union, like the movement of free people and | :57:36. | :57:40. | |
coming under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The | :57:41. | :57:43. | |
challenge that the UK has, which also present another contradiction, | :57:44. | :57:47. | |
is that at the moment the UK is trying to embark on a global | :57:48. | :57:52. | |
strategy when the forces of protectionism are coming to the | :57:53. | :57:54. | |
fore. So it will be very challenging. And trying to replicate | :57:55. | :58:01. | |
even some of the, what the UK currently has in terms of access to | :58:02. | :58:04. | |
the single market in terms of the sectorial basis, that may indeed | :58:05. | :58:08. | |
come into conflict with some of the world trade organisation rules. So | :58:09. | :58:12. | |
there are all kinds of different contradictions that exist within the | :58:13. | :58:15. | |
correct strategy that would have to be reconciled before the UK would be | :58:16. | :58:19. | |
able to negotiate what would be a set of very complex deals that would | :58:20. | :58:22. | |
leave it better off and I think most economists would agree that because | :58:23. | :58:26. | |
the UK is seen very much as a gateway by a lot of foreign | :58:27. | :58:31. | |
investors into the EU, it is going to be a very tall order indeed to | :58:32. | :58:36. | |
try and achieve that. The other side of that, Christina Boswell is, of | :58:37. | :58:40. | |
course, at least we're not really seeing any bad economic effects of | :58:41. | :58:41. | |
leaving. I take the point that we seeing any bad economic effects of | :58:42. | :58:48. | |
have not done it yet, but when the governor of the Bank of England is | :58:49. | :58:51. | |
telling us that the main threat to short-term financial stability in | :58:52. | :58:53. | |
the UK is no longer Brexit, that must mean something. Yes, but how | :58:54. | :58:58. | |
this plays out politically for Theresa May in the next months and | :58:59. | :59:01. | |
years will depend on a number of things and one of those is the | :59:02. | :59:06. | |
economic indicators and how Brexit is affecting the economy as | :59:07. | :59:10. | |
decisions are made and as the negotiation outcome becomes clearer. | :59:11. | :59:15. | |
We have also got to bear in mind that there are other factors which | :59:16. | :59:18. | |
could play quite negatively for Theresa May. For example, if it | :59:19. | :59:24. | |
looks like the negotiation process will be protracted, it will be very | :59:25. | :59:28. | |
difficult if the EU is very intransigent in its negotiation | :59:29. | :59:32. | |
position. But also a lot is riding on the government's ability to | :59:33. | :59:39. | |
restrict immigration and I am not that confident that the government | :59:40. | :59:43. | |
will be able to do so, it has not managed to restrict non-EU | :59:44. | :59:46. | |
immigration since 2010. I do not think it will fare much better in | :59:47. | :59:49. | |
restricting EU immigration, so I think there could be a lot of | :59:50. | :59:52. | |
disappointed voters out there. What do you think the Scottish Government | :59:53. | :59:57. | |
should do? Two possible strategies, one is to say, look, this is what we | :59:58. | :00:03. | |
want, if we do not get it, we will have another independence | :00:04. | :00:06. | |
referendum. Arguably there is another price which is that a whole | :00:07. | :00:11. | |
lot of powers are going to be devolved probably because when you | :00:12. | :00:14. | |
leave the European Union they could see, for example, we want limited | :00:15. | :00:17. | |
powers over immigration. There was see, for example, we want limited | :00:18. | :00:20. | |
video that was done with Jack McConnell many years ago, if you | :00:21. | :00:24. | |
remember, on students. Things like that that could give them a bit more | :00:25. | :00:27. | |
flexibility. I think that is correct. The Lewis Cook for some | :00:28. | :00:32. | |
leverage there. In the speech of Theresa May on Tuesday she spoke | :00:33. | :00:36. | |
about the repatriation of powers, as it is called, and she made in north | :00:37. | :00:40. | |
to the idea that it might make sense for some of those Paris to come back | :00:41. | :00:44. | |
to the devolved administrations and others to go back to Westminster. So | :00:45. | :00:48. | |
she seems to be signalling some flexibility there, however it does | :00:49. | :00:52. | |
not go anywhere near the type of proposals put forward by Nicola | :00:53. | :00:58. | |
Sturgeon just before Christmas, which was aiming towards a fully | :00:59. | :01:02. | |
differentiated approach with Scotland retaining access to the | :01:03. | :01:08. | |
single market. In terms of the SNP's negotiating position as it were, I | :01:09. | :01:12. | |
think that the Lions have really hard and through this set of | :01:13. | :01:17. | |
proposals that were advanced before Christmas and now Theresa May's | :01:18. | :01:21. | |
speech. It will be very difficult, I think, to pull back from those hard | :01:22. | :01:25. | |
divisions which have become crystallised now. It is very | :01:26. | :01:30. | |
difficult to envisage avoiding a second referendum on Scottish | :01:31. | :01:34. | |
independence, I think. What do you think about that, Brad MacKay? It | :01:35. | :01:38. | |
might be wrong in this, but I think one of the argument that was put | :01:39. | :01:44. | |
forward in the past about devolving the EFTA was because it was | :01:45. | :01:47. | |
earmarked for paying into the European Union, you could not have | :01:48. | :01:50. | |
different VAT rates around the UK. But as long as we're not in the EU, | :01:51. | :01:54. | |
the Scottish Government can say they can have control of VAT, thank you | :01:55. | :01:59. | |
very much. -- VAT. I think there is a lot of scope for devolving a lot | :02:00. | :02:04. | |
more powers to the Scottish Government. If you look at something | :02:05. | :02:09. | |
like even immigration and you take the example of Canada and Quebec. | :02:10. | :02:13. | |
Quebec has a customised deal as a province in Canada with the Canadian | :02:14. | :02:16. | |
federal government to have a lot more control over that. So I think | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
there is a lot of scope in being able to do that. I think we're some | :02:21. | :02:25. | |
of the challenges for the Scottish Government come in are that the | :02:26. | :02:28. | |
reality is that Scotland's economy is a very highly integrated thing | :02:29. | :02:34. | |
with the rest of the UK. Somewhere between 60% and 70% of Scottish | :02:35. | :02:38. | |
exports actually go to the rest of the UK, only about 15% would go to | :02:39. | :02:42. | |
the European Union. I think there are some areas where powers could be | :02:43. | :02:45. | |
devolved to the Scottish Government, which would allow the Scottish | :02:46. | :02:49. | |
Government to tailor various policies to the needs of Scotland | :02:50. | :02:53. | |
and immigration would potentially be one of them. I think when it comes | :02:54. | :02:58. | |
to trying to negotiate some sort of halfway house between a single | :02:59. | :03:02. | |
market in the UK and the single market in Europe, that presents a | :03:03. | :03:06. | |
whole lot of challenges that will be difficult to overcome. Christina | :03:07. | :03:09. | |
Boswell, briefly on immigration, you said a minute ago it could be very | :03:10. | :03:12. | |
difficult for the British government to control immigration to the extent | :03:13. | :03:19. | |
that they would like, even if they get powers over immigration back, | :03:20. | :03:21. | |
which they would by beating the EU, is that a potential pitfall with | :03:22. | :03:29. | |
Brexit if it does not deliver the thing that many people voted for | :03:30. | :03:30. | |
Brexit if it does not deliver the Brexit in order to achieve? I think | :03:31. | :03:35. | |
it could be a potential pitfall but a lot depends upon how the | :03:36. | :03:39. | |
government manages to shape the narrative and every listen to the | :03:40. | :03:42. | |
language being used by Theresa May at the moment, she does not talk | :03:43. | :03:45. | |
about ridges, she does not talk about bring down, she talks about | :03:46. | :03:49. | |
control, controlling emigration... about bring down, she talks about | :03:50. | :03:53. | |
And again. I am thinking, we are seeing a subtle shift away from the | :03:54. | :03:59. | |
language around reducing net migration towards controlling and | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
that is a narrative around selectivity, the brightest and best, | :04:03. | :04:04. | |
selecting those immigrants that will selectivity, the brightest and best, | :04:05. | :04:08. | |
be beneficial towards our economy. I suspect you want to shape the | :04:09. | :04:12. | |
narrative like that, that it is not uncontrolled immigration for anyone | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
who wants to come here but controlled immigration, possibly | :04:16. | :04:18. | |
similar numbers, but of those who reselect the benefit our economy. | :04:19. | :04:22. | |
Christina Boswell and Brad MacKay, thank you both very much indeed. | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
Time now to look at the stories from the week gone by and those | :04:26. | :04:28. | |
With me this week are Caron Lindsay, editor of Liberal Democrat Voice, | :04:29. | :04:34. | |
and the SNP's former head of communications turned | :04:35. | :04:36. | |
communications consultant, Kevin Pringle. | :04:37. | :04:42. | |
Kevin, you were there during the last independence referendum. If you | :04:43. | :04:53. | |
were still there, what would you say to the Scottish Government? Would | :04:54. | :04:55. | |
you say go for a referendum next year or would you tell them to wait? | :04:56. | :05:02. | |
I think another referendum is increasingly likely and I think it | :05:03. | :05:07. | |
is unavoidable. In terms of the result of the European referendum, | :05:08. | :05:11. | |
it was such a deferential result across the UK, the fact it was | :05:12. | :05:15. | |
included in the SNP manifesto last year... Would you still go for it? | :05:16. | :05:26. | |
Yes, for two reasons. They polls are around pretty work in 2014, but to | :05:27. | :05:33. | |
begin at 45% is different from 2014 when we began... The counter to that | :05:34. | :05:40. | |
is to say that at the beginning of 2014 a lot of people had not | :05:41. | :05:46. | |
decided. It is more polarised now. I think it is more polarised but it is | :05:47. | :05:51. | |
also more fluid than people think. There has been a shift in both | :05:52. | :05:56. | |
directions, some have gone from no two yes, some have gone from yes to | :05:57. | :06:02. | |
no. I think it will be much easier to get people who have gone from yes | :06:03. | :06:08. | |
to no back again, and even if that is all that happens the referendum | :06:09. | :06:17. | |
result would be yes. The framing of the referendum in a post-Brexit | :06:18. | :06:21. | |
situation... What Nicola Sturgeon would like to do is say that the | :06:22. | :06:27. | |
referendum is not about Brexit at about putting Brexit in the wider | :06:28. | :06:36. | |
context of the Democratic... The point Kenny MacAskill has been | :06:37. | :06:42. | |
making is that a lot of SNP yes voters, whether they were SNP voters | :06:43. | :06:46. | |
are not, voted to leave the European Union. He argues that there should | :06:47. | :06:51. | |
not be another referendum but also that when there is one it should not | :06:52. | :06:55. | |
be a bit Europe because you have to win over previous yes photos he | :06:56. | :07:02. | |
voted to leave Europe. I think that will be possible because Brexit is | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
an extreme example of democratic deficit. Since 2010 there has been a | :07:06. | :07:12. | |
UK Government supported by only one member of Parliament in Scotland. | :07:13. | :07:13. | |
UK Government supported by only one The equivalent would be for Scotland | :07:14. | :07:18. | |
to be governed by a country that only had nine MPs. That is the | :07:19. | :07:25. | |
result of an election system you do not support. It is only because of | :07:26. | :07:32. | |
first past the post their SNP has got so many. It is the reality that | :07:33. | :07:37. | |
Scotland finds itself in. It is fertile territory to deliver a yes | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
vote. These reports this morning that Liberal Democrats among others | :07:44. | :07:48. | |
by looking at putting amendment should the Supreme Court decide | :07:49. | :07:51. | |
there will have to be legislation on Article 50. That is something you | :07:52. | :07:57. | |
think may show some promise or a do you think the Conservatives will | :07:58. | :08:01. | |
just dismantle the? I don't think the ad server to Tory nationalism is | :08:02. | :08:07. | |
SNP national of them. I think the SNP and the Liberal Democrats and | :08:08. | :08:11. | |
other people in Parliament should be working together to secure a | :08:12. | :08:14. | |
referendum on the Brexit deal, because I think that is the best way | :08:15. | :08:19. | |
of making sure the whole UK stays in the single market. What do you think | :08:20. | :08:27. | |
of Michael Russell's tactic that we will put forward lots of amendments | :08:28. | :08:30. | |
to the bill but we will vote against it anyway? We need to see how it | :08:31. | :08:37. | |
shapes up. That is an odd way to proceed. We can see what happens in | :08:38. | :08:42. | |
the House of Commons but I think the reality is that these amendment is | :08:43. | :08:48. | |
unlikely to be successful. That is a strong Democratic position for the | :08:49. | :08:55. | |
SNP MPs to base their caisson. Can they completely rejected? It is not | :08:56. | :09:01. | |
impossible that enough Conservatives might vote for these amendments. The | :09:02. | :09:08. | |
majority of Conservative MPs were first staying in the European Union. | :09:09. | :09:12. | |
The problem is you have to see what the Labour Party do. They are not | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
providing any opposition whatsoever. They are just saying they will vote | :09:19. | :09:25. | |
for Article 50 whatever, which is wrong. If people were working | :09:26. | :09:28. | |
together we could really make some changes. Labour are not here to | :09:29. | :09:35. | |
defend themselves, but I think they would say calling for another | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
referendum on the outcome of negotiations is ignoring the | :09:42. | :09:45. | |
referendum result. You criticise the SNP for ignoring the result of the | :09:46. | :09:49. | |
independence referendum, but you're doing the same of the Brexit | :09:50. | :09:52. | |
referendum. We had no idea what Brexit would look like. How is that | :09:53. | :10:00. | |
different from the SNP saying that they had no idea Scotland would vote | :10:01. | :10:01. | |
different from the SNP saying that to stay in the EU and the rest of | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
the UK wouldn't. You respect the result or you do not stop you | :10:06. | :10:11. | |
respect the vote for a departure but people did not vote for the | :10:12. | :10:17. | |
destination. But Scotland voted... That is the same as the SNP saying | :10:18. | :10:22. | |
that Scotland voted to stay in the UK but we did not know that would be | :10:23. | :10:26. | |
a European referendum in Scotland. Therefore that invalidates the | :10:27. | :10:31. | |
outcome of the referendum. You cannot accuse the SNP for not | :10:32. | :10:35. | |
telling us what independence would look like. We did not have that in | :10:36. | :10:42. | |
the league campaign. Theresa May has chosen the most extreme version of | :10:43. | :10:48. | |
Brexit on a very slim majority. I think people need to have a vote on | :10:49. | :10:55. | |
what Brexit looks like. The SNP are saying that we might have another | :10:56. | :11:01. | |
independence referendum, that is one thing, but it is another thing to | :11:02. | :11:05. | |
say there should be a referendum across the UK on the results of the | :11:06. | :11:10. | |
negotiation. I don't know what view the SNP would take on that, but the | :11:11. | :11:16. | |
difference between the independence referendum, where the definition of | :11:17. | :11:18. | |
what an independent Scotland would look like in that 600 page document | :11:19. | :11:26. | |
that everyone had available, that was provided before the referendum. | :11:27. | :11:29. | |
that everyone had available, that All the definition of what Brexit is | :11:30. | :11:32. | |
good to look like him and after the vote, so there is a case to consider | :11:33. | :11:39. | |
the issue of another referendum on the grounds that none of the | :11:40. | :11:46. | |
definition was there. Many leading leave campaigners said explicitly | :11:47. | :11:49. | |
that voting to leave was not about leaving the single European market. | :11:50. | :11:55. | |
One who had pursued Brexit for decades made a point of saying the | :11:56. | :12:02. | |
UK would stay in the single European market, the opposite of what is | :12:03. | :12:05. | |
happening. When the opposite of what was said would happen is actually | :12:06. | :12:11. | |
about to come about there is a case to consider that. With no additional | :12:12. | :12:19. | |
spectre Dan, just because he said... Many people said that. Leaving the | :12:20. | :12:25. | |
European Union is not about leaving the single market. If you look at | :12:26. | :12:29. | |
the Tory manifesto for 2015, they said they were in terms -- they were | :12:30. | :12:34. | |
in favour of remaining in the single market. We have heard from Theresa | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
May that this is not the case. Then you come into the issue that that is | :12:41. | :12:47. | |
the ground upon which the SNP have chosen to rest the bulk of their | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
case, that Scotland should remain in the single market and the same is | :12:52. | :12:56. | |
true for Northern Ireland. That should be taken into account. We | :12:57. | :13:01. | |
cannot end this programme about giving you a chance to tell us how | :13:02. | :13:08. | |
much admired Donald Trump. There is a cause for optimism. The marchers | :13:09. | :13:14. | |
we saw yesterday, I think that will bring people who've never been | :13:15. | :13:19. | |
involved in politics into trying to get a stake in the future, to try | :13:20. | :13:25. | |
and fight against what he is doing. We have seen how he has torn up all | :13:26. | :13:32. | |
the stuff on Obama care, health care, climate change... A quick | :13:33. | :13:39. | |
comment on Donald Trump. What do you think of what he is done? It has all | :13:40. | :13:44. | |
been about Donald Trump. I think it might be a mistake for a Theresa May | :13:45. | :13:51. | |
to go there because it is still very raw and controversial. We need to | :13:52. | :13:54. | |
leave it there. I'll be back at the | :13:55. | :13:55. | |
same time next week. There's live Scottish Cup action | :13:56. | :13:58. | |
next Sunday, as Hearts travel to Stark's Park | :13:59. | :14:09. | |
to take on Raith Rovers. Can the Championship side | :14:10. | :14:13. | |
cause a Cup upset - | :14:14. | :14:17. |