22/01/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


22/01/2017

Similar Content

Browse content similar to 22/01/2017. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!

Transcript


LineFromTo

It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:41.

Theresa May will be the first foreign leader to visit US

:00:42.:00:44.

President Donald Trump this week - she's promised to hold "very

:00:45.:00:47.

frank" conversations with the new and controversial

:00:48.:00:50.

Speaking of the 45th President of America,

:00:51.:00:57.

we'll be looking at what the Trump presidency could hold

:00:58.:01:00.

in store for Britain and the rest of the world.

:01:01.:01:06.

And with the Supreme Court expected to say that Parliament should

:01:07.:01:09.

have a vote before the Brexit process begins, we'll ask

:01:10.:01:12.

Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott what Labour will do next.

:01:13.:01:18.

And on Sunday Politics Scotland, the Brexit Minister, Mike Russell,

:01:19.:01:20.

says SNP MPs would vote against the triggering of Article 50

:01:21.:01:22.

And to talk about all of that and more, I'm joined by three

:01:23.:01:40.

journalists who, in an era of so-called fake news, can be

:01:41.:01:42.

relied upon for their accuracy, their impartiality -

:01:43.:01:46.

and their willingness to come to the studio

:01:47.:01:49.

It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

:01:50.:01:55.

and Tom Newton Dunn, and during the programme they'll be

:01:56.:02:02.

tweeting as often as the 45th President of the USA in the middle

:02:03.:02:05.

So - the Prime Minister has been appearing on the BBC this morning.

:02:06.:02:16.

She was mostly talking about Donald Trump and Brexit,

:02:17.:02:18.

but she was also asked about a story on the front of this

:02:19.:02:21.

It's reported that an unarmed Trident missile test fired

:02:22.:02:25.

from the submarine HMS Vengeance near the Florida coast in June

:02:26.:02:31.

The paper says the incident took place weeks before a crucial Commons

:02:32.:02:39.

Well, let's have listen to Theresa May talking

:02:40.:02:43.

The issue that we were talking about in the House of Commons

:02:44.:02:49.

It was about whether or not we should renew Trident,

:02:50.:02:53.

whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident.

:02:54.:02:56.

That's what we were talking about in the House of Commons.

:02:57.:02:59.

That's what the House of Commons voted for.

:03:00.:03:01.

He doesn't want to defend our country with an independent

:03:02.:03:06.

There are tests that take place all the time, regularly,

:03:07.:03:14.

What we were talking about in that debate that took place...

:03:15.:03:22.

I'm not going to get an answer to this.

:03:23.:03:29.

Tom, it was clear this was going to come up this morning. It is on the

:03:30.:03:36.

front page of the Sunday Times. It would seem to me the Prime Minister

:03:37.:03:40.

wasn't properly briefed on how to reply. I think she probably was, but

:03:41.:03:47.

the Prime Minister we now have doesn't necessarily answer all

:03:48.:03:50.

questions in the straightest way. She didn't answer that one and all.

:03:51.:03:58.

Unlike previous ones? She made it quite clear she was briefed. You

:03:59.:04:05.

read between the Theresa May lines. By simply not answering Andrew Marr

:04:06.:04:10.

four times, it is obvious she knew, and that she knew before she went

:04:11.:04:13.

into the House of Commons and urged everyone to renew the ?40 billion

:04:14.:04:20.

replacement programme. Of course it is an embarrassment, but does it

:04:21.:04:23.

have political legs? I don't think so. She didn't mislead the Commons.

:04:24.:04:29.

If she wanted to close it down, the answer should have been, these are

:04:30.:04:35.

matters of national security. There's nothing more important in

:04:36.:04:38.

that than our nuclear deterrent. I'm not prepared to talk about testing.

:04:39.:04:45.

End of. But she didn't. Maybe you should be briefing her. That's a

:04:46.:04:50.

good answer. She is an interesting interviewee. She shows it when she

:04:51.:04:55.

is nervous. She was transparently uneasy answering those questions,

:04:56.:04:59.

and the fact she didn't answer it definitively suggests she did know

:05:00.:05:05.

and didn't want to say it, and she answered awkwardly. But how wider

:05:06.:05:09.

point, that the House of Commons voted for the renewal of Trident,

:05:10.:05:14.

suggests to me that in the broader sweep of things, this will not run,

:05:15.:05:19.

because if there was another vote, I would suggest she'd win it again.

:05:20.:05:25.

But it is an embarrassment and she handled it with a transparent

:05:26.:05:30.

awkwardness. She said that the tests go on all the time, but not of the

:05:31.:05:36.

missiles. Does it not show that when the Prime Minister leaves her

:05:37.:05:40.

comfort zone of Home Office affairs or related matters, she often

:05:41.:05:45.

struggles. We've seen it under questioning from Mr Corbyn even, and

:05:46.:05:52.

we saw it again today. Absolutely. Tests of various aspects of the

:05:53.:05:55.

missiles go on all the time, but there's only been five since 2000.

:05:56.:06:01.

What you described wouldn't have worked, because in previous tests

:06:02.:06:05.

they have always been very public about it. Look how well our missiles

:06:06.:06:13.

work! She may not have misled Parliament, but she may not have

:06:14.:06:21.

known about it. If she didn't know, does Michael Fallon still have a job

:06:22.:06:25.

on Monday? Should Parliament know about a test that doesn't work? Some

:06:26.:06:32.

would say absolutely not. Our deterrent is there to deter people

:06:33.:06:38.

from attacking us. If they know that we are hitting the United States by

:06:39.:06:43.

mistake rather than the Atlantic Ocean, then... There is such a thing

:06:44.:06:48.

as national security, and telling all the bad guys about where we are

:06:49.:06:53.

going wrong may not be a good idea. It was her first statement as Prime

:06:54.:06:57.

Minister to put her case for renewal, to have the vote on

:06:58.:07:03.

Trident, and in that context, it is significant not to say anything. If

:07:04.:07:07.

anyone knows where the missile landed, give us a call!

:07:08.:07:10.

So Donald Trump's inauguration day closed with him dancing

:07:11.:07:13.

to Frank Sinatra's My Way, and whatever your view on the 45th

:07:14.:07:15.

President of the United States he certainly did do it his way.

:07:16.:07:18.

Not for him the idealistic call for national unity -

:07:19.:07:21.

instead he used Friday's inaugural address to launch a blistering

:07:22.:07:23.

attack on the dark state of the nation and the political

:07:24.:07:27.

class, and to promise to take his uncompromising approach

:07:28.:07:31.

from the campaign trail to the White House.

:07:32.:07:35.

Here's Adam Fleming, with a reminder of how

:07:36.:07:39.

First, dropping by for a cup of tea and a slightly awkward exchange

:07:40.:07:47.

Then, friends, foes and predecessors watched

:07:48.:07:56.

I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear...

:07:57.:08:03.

The crowds seemed smaller than previous inaugurations,

:08:04.:08:07.

the speech tougher then any previous incoming president.

:08:08.:08:12.

From this day forth, it's going to be only America first.

:08:13.:08:19.

In the meantime, there were sporadic protests in Washington, DC.

:08:20.:08:44.

Opponents made their voices heard around the world too.

:08:45.:08:48.

The President, who'd criticised the work of

:08:49.:08:50.

the intelligence agencies, fitted in a visit to the CIA.

:08:51.:08:54.

There is nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community

:08:55.:08:58.

And, back at the office, in the dark, a signature signalled

:08:59.:09:10.

the end of the Obama era and the dawn of Trump.

:09:11.:09:15.

So, as you heard there, President Trump used his

:09:16.:09:22.

inauguration to repeat his campaign promise to put "America first"

:09:23.:09:24.

in all his decisions, and offered some hints of what to expect

:09:25.:09:27.

He talked of in America in carnage, to be rebuilt by American hands and

:09:28.:09:44.

American Labour. President Trump has already started to dismantle key

:09:45.:09:48.

parts of the Obama Legacy, including the unwinding of the affordable care

:09:49.:09:52.

act, and the siding of the climate action plan to tackle global

:09:53.:09:58.

warning. Little to say about foreign policy, but promised to eradicate

:09:59.:10:02.

Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth, insisting he would

:10:03.:10:07.

restore the US military to unquestioning dominance. He also

:10:08.:10:13.

said the US would develop a state missile defence system to deal with

:10:14.:10:17.

threats he sees from Iran and North Korea. In a statement that painted a

:10:18.:10:22.

bleak picture of the country he now runs, he said his would be a law and

:10:23.:10:27.

order Administration, and he would keep the innocents safe by building

:10:28.:10:33.

the border war with Mexico. One thing he didn't mention, for the

:10:34.:10:38.

first time ever, there is a Eurosceptic in the oval office, who

:10:39.:10:41.

is also an enthusiast for Brexit. We're joined now by Ted Malloch -

:10:42.:10:44.

he's a Trump supporter who's been tipped as the president's

:10:45.:10:47.

choice for US ambassador to the EU, and he's

:10:48.:10:49.

just flown back from Washington. And by James Rubin -

:10:50.:10:51.

he's a democrat who served Let's start with that last point I

:10:52.:11:03.

made in the voice over there. We now have a Eurosceptic in the oval

:11:04.:11:10.

office. He is pro-Brexit and not keen on further European Union

:11:11.:11:13.

integration. What are the implications of that? First of all,

:11:14.:11:19.

a renewal of the US- UK special relationship. You see the Prime

:11:20.:11:24.

Minister already going to build and rebuild this relationship. Already,

:11:25.:11:28.

the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the oval office.

:11:29.:11:33.

Interestingly, Martin Luther King's bust is also there, so there is an

:11:34.:11:38.

act of unity in that first movement of dusts. Donald Trump will be

:11:39.:11:44.

oriented between bilateral relationships and not multilateral

:11:45.:11:55.

or supernatural. Supranational full. What are the implications of someone

:11:56.:12:00.

in the White House now not believing in it? I think we are present in the

:12:01.:12:06.

unravelling of America's leadership of the West. There is now a thing

:12:07.:12:10.

called the west that America has led since the end of World War II,

:12:11.:12:18.

creating supranational - we just heard supernatural! These

:12:19.:12:27.

institutions were created. With American leadership, the world was

:12:28.:12:32.

at peace in Europe, and the world grew increasingly democratic and

:12:33.:12:36.

prosperous. Wars were averted that could be extremely costly. When

:12:37.:12:41.

something works in diplomacy, you don't really understand what the

:12:42.:12:45.

consequences could have been. I think we've got complacent. The new

:12:46.:12:49.

president is taking advantage of that. It is a terrible tragedy that

:12:50.:12:55.

so many in the West take for granted the successful leadership and

:12:56.:13:00.

institutions we have built. You could argue, as James Rubin has

:13:01.:13:08.

argued in some articles, that... Will Mr Trump's America be more

:13:09.:13:12.

involved in the world than the Obama won? Or will it continue the process

:13:13.:13:20.

with running shoes on that began with Mr Obama? President Obama

:13:21.:13:26.

stepped back from American leadership. He withdrew from the

:13:27.:13:32.

world. He had a horrendous eight years in office, and American powers

:13:33.:13:36.

have diminished everywhere in the world, not just in Europe. That

:13:37.:13:41.

power will reassert. The focus will be on America first, but there are

:13:42.:13:46.

foreign interests around the world... How does it reassert itself

:13:47.:13:52.

around the world? I think the institutions will be recreated. Some

:13:53.:13:56.

may be taken down. There could be some new ones. I think Nato itself,

:13:57.:14:02.

and certainly the Defence Secretary will have discussions with Donald

:14:03.:14:06.

Trump about how Nato can be reshaped, and maybe there will be

:14:07.:14:10.

more burden sharing. That is an important thing for him. You are

:14:11.:14:15.

tipped to be the US ambassador to Brussels, to the EU, and we are

:14:16.:14:19.

still waiting to hear if that will happen. Is it true to say that Mr

:14:20.:14:24.

Trump does not believe in EU integration? I think you made that

:14:25.:14:34.

clear in the speech. He talked about supranational. He does not believe

:14:35.:14:42.

in those kinds of organisations. He is investing himself in bilateral

:14:43.:14:46.

relationships, the first of which will be with the UK. So we have a

:14:47.:14:51.

president who does not believe in EU integration and has been highly

:14:52.:14:57.

critical of Nato. Do the people he has appointed to defend, Secretary

:14:58.:15:02.

of State, national security, do you think that will temper this

:15:03.:15:06.

anti-NATO wretched? Will he come round to a more pro-NATO situation?

:15:07.:15:14.

I think those of us who care about America's situation in the world

:15:15.:15:19.

will come in to miss President Obama a lot. I think the Secretary of

:15:20.:15:24.

State and the faculty of defence will limit the damage and will urge

:15:25.:15:29.

him not to take formal steps to unravel this most powerful and most

:15:30.:15:34.

successful alliance in history, the Nato alliance. But the damage is

:15:35.:15:40.

already being done. When you are the leader of the West, leadership means

:15:41.:15:45.

you are persuading, encouraging, bolstering your leadership and these

:15:46.:15:51.

institutions by the way you speak. Millions, if not hundreds of

:15:52.:15:55.

millions of people, have now heard the US say that what they care about

:15:56.:15:57.

is within their borders. What do you say to that? It is such

:15:58.:16:06.

an overstatement. The point is that Donald Trump is in a Jacksonian

:16:07.:16:16.

tradition of national populism. He is appealing to the people first.

:16:17.:16:19.

The other day, I was sitting below this page during the address, and he

:16:20.:16:24.

said, everyone sitting behind me as part of the problem. Everyone in

:16:25.:16:28.

front of me, the crowd and the crowd on television, is part of the

:16:29.:16:32.

solution, so we are giving the Government back to the people. That

:16:33.:16:37.

emphasis is going to change American life, including American

:16:38.:16:40.

International relations. It doesn't moving the leak back -- it doesn't

:16:41.:16:49.

mean we are moving out of Nato, it simply means we will put our

:16:50.:16:54.

national interests first. There were echoes of Andrew Jackson's

:16:55.:16:57.

inauguration address of 1820. That night, the Jacksonians trashed the

:16:58.:17:03.

White House, but Mr Trump's people didn't do that, so there is a

:17:04.:17:06.

difference there. He also said something else in the address - that

:17:07.:17:12.

protectionism would lead to prosperity. I would suggest there is

:17:13.:17:19.

no evidence for that in the post-war world. He talked about protecting

:17:20.:17:25.

the American worker, American jobs, the American economy. I actually

:17:26.:17:27.

think that Donald Trump will not turn out to be a protectionist. If

:17:28.:17:35.

you read the heart of the deal... This is referring to two Republican

:17:36.:17:41.

senators who introduce massive tariffs in the Hoover

:17:42.:17:50.

administration. Exactly. If you read The Art Of The Deal, you will see

:17:51.:17:54.

how Donald Trump deals with individuals and countries. There is

:17:55.:17:57.

a lot of bluster, positioning, and I think you already see this in

:17:58.:18:04.

bringing jobs by the United States. Things are going to change. Let's

:18:05.:18:08.

also deal with this proposition. China is the biggest loser of this

:18:09.:18:15.

election result. Let me say this: The first time in American history

:18:16.:18:22.

and American president has set forth his view of the world, and it is a

:18:23.:18:30.

mercantile view of the world, who makes more money, who gets more

:18:31.:18:34.

trade, it doesn't look at the shared values, leadership and defends the

:18:35.:18:39.

world needs. The art of the deal has no application to America's

:18:40.:18:41.

leadership of the world, that's what we're learning. You can be a great

:18:42.:18:47.

businessman and make great real estate deals - whether he did not is

:18:48.:18:51.

debatable - but it has nothing to do with inspiring shared values from

:18:52.:18:56.

the West. You saying China may lose, because he may pressure them to

:18:57.:19:00.

reduce their trade deficit with the US. They may or may not. We may both

:19:01.:19:07.

lose. Right now, his Secretary of State has said, and I think he will

:19:08.:19:10.

walk this back when he is brief, that they will prevent the Chinese

:19:11.:19:15.

from entering these islands in the South China Sea. If they were to do

:19:16.:19:19.

that, it would be a blockade, and there would be a shooting war

:19:20.:19:23.

between the United States and China, so US - China relations are the most

:19:24.:19:28.

important bilateral relationship of the United States, and they don't

:19:29.:19:31.

lend themselves to the bluff and bluster that may have worked when

:19:32.:19:36.

you are trying to get a big building on second Ave in Manhattan. Is China

:19:37.:19:41.

the biggest loser? I think the Chinese have a lot to lose. Gigi and

:19:42.:19:57.

Ping was in Davos this week -- Xi Jin Ping was in Davos.

:19:58.:20:03.

Is Germany the second biggest loser in the sense that I understand he

:20:04.:20:09.

hasn't agreed time to see Angela Merkel yet, also that those close to

:20:10.:20:17.

him believe that Germany is guilty of currency manipulation by adopting

:20:18.:20:20.

a weak your row instead of the strong Deutschmark, and that that is

:20:21.:20:24.

why they are running a huge balance of payments surplus with the United

:20:25.:20:30.

States. American - German relations may not be great. There is a point

:20:31.:20:35.

of view throughout Europe. You only have to talk to the southern

:20:36.:20:39.

Europeans about this question. It seems like the euro has been aligned

:20:40.:20:43.

to benefit Germany. Joe Stiglitz, the famous left of centre Democrat

:20:44.:20:49.

economist, made the same case in a recent book. In this case, I think

:20:50.:20:56.

Germany will be put under the spotlight. Angela Merkel has shown

:20:57.:21:00.

herself to be the most respected and the most successful leader in

:21:01.:21:04.

herself to be the most respected and Europe. We who care about the West,

:21:05.:21:07.

who care about the shared values of the West, should pray and hope that

:21:08.:21:11.

she is re-elected. This isn't about dollars and cents. We're living in a

:21:12.:21:16.

time whether Russian leader has another country in Europe and for

:21:17.:21:21.

some inexplicable reason, the American president, who can use his

:21:22.:21:27.

insult diplomacy on everyone, including Mrs Merkel, the only

:21:28.:21:33.

person he can't seem to find anything to criticise about is Mr

:21:34.:21:37.

Putin. There are things more important than the actual details of

:21:38.:21:40.

your currency. There are things like preventing another war in Europe,

:21:41.:21:44.

preventing a war between the Chinese and the US. You talk about the

:21:45.:21:51.

Trident missile all morning, nuclear deterrence is extremely important.

:21:52.:21:55.

It doesn't lend itself to the bluff and bluster of a real estate deal. I

:21:56.:21:59.

understand all that, but the fact we are even talking about these things

:22:00.:22:03.

shows the new world we are moving into. I'd like to get you both to

:22:04.:22:08.

react to this. This is a man that ended the Bush Dynasty, a man that

:22:09.:22:16.

beat the Clinton machine. In his inauguration, not only did he not

:22:17.:22:19.

reach out to the Democrats, he didn't even mention the Republicans.

:22:20.:22:24.

These are changed days for us. They are, and change can be good or

:22:25.:22:28.

disastrous. I'm worried that it's easy in the world of diplomacy and

:22:29.:22:33.

in them -- for the leadership of the United States to break relationships

:22:34.:22:38.

and ruin alliances. These are things that were carefully nurtured. George

:22:39.:22:47.

Schultz, the American Secretary of State under Reagan talked about

:22:48.:22:51.

gardening, the slow, careful creation of a place with bilateral

:22:52.:22:56.

relationships that were blossoming and flowering multilateral

:22:57.:22:58.

relationships that take decades to create, and he will throw them away

:22:59.:23:02.

in a matter of days. The final word... I work for George Schultz.

:23:03.:23:08.

He was a Marine who stood up America, defended America, who would

:23:09.:23:12.

be in favour of many of the things that Donald Trump and the tramp

:23:13.:23:18.

Administration... Give him a call. His top aide macs that I've spoken

:23:19.:23:23.

to are appalled by Mr Trump's abdication of leadership. He is

:23:24.:23:27.

going to our radically -- he's going to eradicate extremist Islam from

:23:28.:23:35.

the face of the year. Is that realistic? I know people in the

:23:36.:23:38.

national security realm have worked on a plan. They say they will have

:23:39.:23:42.

such a plan in some detail within 90 days. Lets hope they succeed. We

:23:43.:23:51.

have run out of time. As a issues. Thank you, both. -- fascinating

:23:52.:23:52.

issues. So Theresa May promised a big speech

:23:53.:23:56.

on Brexit, and this week - perhaps against expectation -

:23:57.:23:59.

she delivered, trying to answer claims that the government didn't

:24:00.:24:01.

have a plan with an explicit wish-list of what she hopes to

:24:02.:24:04.

achieve in negotiations with the EU. To her allies it was ambitious,

:24:05.:24:07.

bold, optimistic - to her opponents it was full

:24:08.:24:09.

of contradictions There are speeches,

:24:10.:24:11.

and there are speeches. Like Theresa May's 12 principles

:24:12.:24:19.

for a Brexit deal leading to the UK fully out of the EU

:24:20.:24:23.

but still friendly in terms This agreement should allow

:24:24.:24:26.

for the freest possible trade in goods and services between

:24:27.:24:30.

Britain and the EU's member states. It should give British

:24:31.:24:32.

companies the maximum operate within European markets

:24:33.:24:38.

and let European businesses do She also said no deal would be

:24:39.:24:41.

better than the wrong deal, We want to test what people think

:24:42.:24:49.

about what she's just said. Do we have any of our

:24:50.:25:05.

future negotiating As the European Parliament

:25:06.:25:07.

voted for its new president, its chief

:25:08.:25:12.

negotiator sounded off. Saying, OK, if our European

:25:13.:25:20.

counterparts don't accept it, we're going to make

:25:21.:25:22.

from Britain a sort of free zone or tax haven,

:25:23.:25:25.

I The Prime Minister of Malta,

:25:26.:25:27.

the country that's assumed the EU's rotating presidency,

:25:28.:25:34.

spoke in sorrow and a bit of anger. We want a fair deal

:25:35.:25:37.

for the United Kingdom, but that deal necessarily needs to be

:25:38.:25:41.

inferior to membership. Next, let's hear

:25:42.:25:51.

from some enthusiastic leavers, like, I don't

:25:52.:25:54.

know, the Daily Mail? The paper lapped it up

:25:55.:25:59.

with this adoring front page. For Brexiteers, it was

:26:00.:26:02.

all manna from heaven. I think today means we are a big

:26:03.:26:06.

step closer to becoming an independent country again,

:26:07.:26:09.

with control of our own laws, I was chuckling at some of it,

:26:10.:26:11.

to be honest, because There were various phrases there

:26:12.:26:17.

which I've used myself again and Do we have any of those

:26:18.:26:21.

so-called Remoaners? There will, at the end

:26:22.:26:26.

of this deal process, so politicians get to vote

:26:27.:26:28.

on the stitch-up, but We take the view as

:26:29.:26:32.

Liberal Democrats that if this process started

:26:33.:26:35.

with democracy last June, We trusted the people

:26:36.:26:37.

with departure, we must trust them Do we have anyone from

:26:38.:26:41.

Labour, or are you all watching it in a small

:26:42.:26:48.

room somewhere? Throughout the speech, there seemed

:26:49.:26:49.

to be an implied threat that somewhere along the line,

:26:50.:26:57.

if all her optimism of a deal with the European Union didn't work,

:26:58.:27:00.

we would move into a low-tax, corporate taxation,

:27:01.:27:02.

bargain-basement economy on the I think she needs to be

:27:03.:27:04.

a bit clearer about what The Labour leader

:27:05.:27:08.

suggested he'd tell his MPs to vote in favour

:27:09.:27:15.

of starting a Brexit process if Parliament was given the choice,

:27:16.:27:18.

sparking a mini pre-revolt among Finally, do we have anyone

:27:19.:27:20.

from big business here? Of course, your all in Davos

:27:21.:27:26.

at the World Economic Clarity, first of all, really

:27:27.:27:35.

codified what many of us have been anticipating since

:27:36.:27:45.

the referendum result, particularly around

:27:46.:27:47.

the I think what we've also seen

:27:48.:27:48.

today is the Government's willingness to put a bit of edge

:27:49.:27:52.

into the negotiating dynamic, and I Trade negotiations are negotiations,

:27:53.:27:55.

and you have to lay out, and you have to be pretty tough

:27:56.:28:00.

to get what you want. Although some business people

:28:01.:28:02.

on the slopes speculated about moving some of their

:28:03.:28:04.

operations out of Brexit Britain. We saw there the instant reaction

:28:05.:28:07.

of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, but how will the party respond

:28:08.:28:25.

to the challenge posed by Brexit Well, I'm joined now by the Shadow

:28:26.:28:28.

Home Secretary, Diane Abbott. People know that Ukip and the Tories

:28:29.:28:37.

are for Brexit. The Lib Dems are four remain. What is Labour for? For

:28:38.:28:42.

respecting the result of the referendum. It was a 72% turnout,

:28:43.:28:48.

very high for an election of that nature, and we believe you have to

:28:49.:28:51.

respect that result. You couldn't have a situation where people like

:28:52.:28:55.

Tim Farron are saying to people, millions of people, sorry, you got

:28:56.:28:59.

it wrong, we in London no better. However, how the Tories go forward

:29:00.:29:04.

from here has to be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. Is it Shadow

:29:05.:29:10.

Cabinet policy to vote for the triggering of Article 50? Our policy

:29:11.:29:15.

is not to block Article 50. That is what the leader was saying this

:29:16.:29:22.

morning. So are you for it? Our policy is not to block it. You are

:29:23.:29:27.

talking about voting for it. We don't know what the Supreme Court is

:29:28.:29:33.

going to say, and we don't know what legislation Government will bring

:29:34.:29:35.

forward, and we don't know what amendment we will move, but we're

:29:36.:29:41.

clear that we will not vote to block it. OK, so you won't bow to stop it,

:29:42.:29:45.

but you could abstain? No, what we will do... Either you vote for or

:29:46.:29:53.

against all you abstain. There are too many unanswered questions. For

:29:54.:29:57.

instance, the position of EU migrants working and living in this

:29:58.:30:02.

country. You may not get the answer to that before Article 50 comes

:30:03.:30:06.

before the Commons, so what would you do then? We are giving to amend

:30:07.:30:11.

it. We can only tell you exactly how we will amend it when we understand

:30:12.:30:15.

what sort of legislation the Government is putting forward, and

:30:16.:30:19.

in the course of moving those amendments, we will ask the

:30:20.:30:23.

questions that the people of Britain whether they voted to leave remain

:30:24.:30:24.

want answered. When you come to a collective view,

:30:25.:30:35.

will there be a three line whip? I can't tell you, because we have not

:30:36.:30:39.

seen the government 's legislation. But when you see it, you will come

:30:40.:30:47.

to a collective view. Many regard this as extremely important. Will

:30:48.:30:51.

there be a three line whip on Labour's collective view? Because it

:30:52.:30:56.

is important, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. When we see what the

:30:57.:31:01.

Supreme Court says, and crucially, when we see what the government

:31:02.:31:06.

position is, you will hear what the whipping is. Will shadow ministers

:31:07.:31:12.

be able to defy any three line whip on this? That is not normally the

:31:13.:31:18.

case. But they did on an early vote that the government introduced on

:31:19.:31:23.

Article 50. Those who voted against it are still there. In the Blair

:31:24.:31:28.

years, you certainly couldn't defy a three line whip. We will see what

:31:29.:31:33.

happens going forward. I remember when the Tories were hopelessly

:31:34.:31:39.

divided over the EU. All these Maastricht votes and an list

:31:40.:31:44.

arguments. Now it is Labour. Just another symptom of Mr Corbyn's poor

:31:45.:31:49.

leadership. Not at all. Two thirds voted to leave, a third to remain.

:31:50.:32:01.

We are seeking to bring the country and the party together. We will do

:32:02.:32:06.

that by pointing out how disastrous a Tory Brexit would be. Meanwhile,

:32:07.:32:16.

around 80 Labour MPs will defy a three line whip. It's too early to

:32:17.:32:22.

say that. Will you publish what you believe the negotiating goal should

:32:23.:32:27.

be? We are clear on it. We think that the economy, jobs and living

:32:28.:32:32.

standards should be the priority. What Theresa May is saying is that

:32:33.:32:37.

holding her party together is her priority. She is putting party above

:32:38.:32:42.

country. Does Labour think we should remain members of the single market?

:32:43.:32:48.

Ideally, in terms of jobs and the economy, of course. Ritt -ish

:32:49.:32:55.

business thinks that as well. Is Labour policy that we should remain

:32:56.:32:58.

a member of the single market? Labour leaves that jobs and the

:32:59.:33:02.

economy comes first, and if they come first, you would want to remain

:33:03.:33:09.

part of the single market. But to remain a member? Jobs and the

:33:10.:33:15.

economy comes first, and to do that, ideally, guess. So with that, comes

:33:16.:33:20.

free movement of people, the jurisdiction of the European, and a

:33:21.:33:24.

free movement of people, the multi-million never shipped thief.

:33:25.:33:30.

Is Labour prepared to pay that? Money is neither here nor there.

:33:31.:33:35.

Because the Tories will be asked to pay a lot of money... The EU has

:33:36.:33:41.

made it clear that you cannot pay a lot of money... The EU has

:33:42.:33:48.

have... I am asking for Labour's position. Our position is rooted in

:33:49.:33:54.

the reality, and the reality is that you cannot have the benefits of the

:33:55.:33:58.

member of the European Union, including being a member of the

:33:59.:34:02.

single market, without responsibility, including free

:34:03.:34:07.

movement of people. Free movement, is remaining under the jurisdiction

:34:08.:34:08.

of the European Court of Justice. Is is remaining under the jurisdiction

:34:09.:34:17.

that the Labour position? You've said that Labour wants to remain a

:34:18.:34:21.

member of the single market. That is the price tag that comes with it.

:34:22.:34:26.

Does Labour agree with paying that price tag? We are not pre-empting

:34:27.:34:32.

negotiation. Our goals are protect jobs and the British economy. Is it

:34:33.:34:37.

Labour's position that we remain a member of the customs union? Well,

:34:38.:34:46.

if we don't, I don't see how Theresa May can keep our promises and has

:34:47.:34:56.

unfettered access... You said Labour's position was clear. It is!

:34:57.:35:05.

It is clear that Theresa May... I am not asking about Theresa May. Is it

:35:06.:35:11.

Labour's position to remain a member of the customs union? It is Labour's

:35:12.:35:17.

position to do what is right for British industry. Depending on how

:35:18.:35:20.

the negotiations go, it may prove that coming out of the customs

:35:21.:35:25.

union, as Theresa May has indicated she wants to do, could prove

:35:26.:35:31.

catastrophic, and could actually destroy some of her promises. You do

:35:32.:35:37.

accept that if we are member of the customs union, we cannot do our own

:35:38.:35:44.

free trade deals? What free trade deals are you talking about? The

:35:45.:35:50.

ones that Labour might want to do in the future. First, we have to

:35:51.:35:54.

ones that Labour might want to do in protect British jobs and British

:35:55.:35:57.

industries. If you are talking about free trade deals with Donald Trump,

:35:58.:36:01.

the danger is that Theresa May will get drawn into a free-trade deal

:36:02.:36:07.

with America that will open up the NHS to American corporate... The

:36:08.:36:14.

cards are in Theresa May's hands. If she takes us out of the single

:36:15.:36:19.

market, if she takes us out of the customs union, we will have to deal

:36:20.:36:23.

with that. How big a crisis for Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour

:36:24.:36:26.

loses both by-elections in February. Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour

:36:27.:36:32.

I don't believe we will lose both. But if he did? I am not anticipating

:36:33.:36:41.

that. Is Labour lost two seats in a midterm of a Tory government, would

:36:42.:36:45.

that be business as usual? I'm not prepared to see us lose those seats,

:36:46.:36:49.

so I will not talk about something that will not happen. Thank you.

:36:50.:36:52.

You're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:53.:36:54.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:36:55.:37:05.

Scotland's Brexit Minister, Michael Russell, tells us SNP MPs

:37:06.:37:12.

will vote against triggering Article 50, no matter how it's amended.

:37:13.:37:15.

How concerned are Scotland's importers about Brexit?

:37:16.:37:23.

We have got to trust our negotiators at the end of the day. I'm sure they

:37:24.:37:29.

are doing their very best for Britain.

:37:30.:37:29.

And did Theresa May choose politics over economics when she set

:37:30.:37:32.

This week, the Supreme Court will deliver its verdict over

:37:33.:37:38.

whether MPs should have a vote over the triggering of Article 50.

:37:39.:37:41.

But Scotland's Brexit Minister says SNP MPs would vote against any bill.

:37:42.:37:45.

Before we came on air, I spoke to Michael Russell

:37:46.:37:47.

We can talk about Brexit in a minute, but Theresa May has just

:37:48.:38:04.

been on the Andrew Marr programme and she refused to say whether she

:38:05.:38:09.

knew about this alleged Trident missile misfiring at the time the

:38:10.:38:14.

renewal of Trident was debated in Parliament last year. Is that

:38:15.:38:20.

acceptable? It is unacceptable. Trident is a very serious issue, an

:38:21.:38:26.

issue where there needs to be transparency. If people had knowing

:38:27.:38:30.

what had happened they would, at the very least, have asked some

:38:31.:38:36.

questions. This is wrong and using secrecy to overcome democratic

:38:37.:38:41.

scrutiny. What will the SNP group in Parliament do about this? My

:38:42.:38:46.

colleagues will want to pursue this very firmly. They will want to find

:38:47.:38:53.

out when the Government knew, what the new, and why they did not give

:38:54.:38:56.

that information in the House of Commons. Theresa May does not want

:38:57.:39:02.

the House of Commons to be involved in any scrutiny, which is wrong and

:39:03.:39:06.

needs to be overcome. You will see vigorous action by the SNP. There

:39:07.:39:13.

are reports this morning found New Cross Parliamentary group at

:39:14.:39:16.

Westminster which, should the Supreme Court decides there will

:39:17.:39:23.

have to be bought in Article 50, the triggering off it, they plan to

:39:24.:39:27.

Britain amendments to soften some of the things that Theresa May said in

:39:28.:39:32.

her speech last week. Is that something be SNP supports? Had he

:39:33.:39:37.

been involved in these talks? I think the SNP MPs had been involved

:39:38.:39:44.

in many talks, but it will also be bringing Ford amendments. Whether it

:39:45.:39:48.

is part of that process are complementary to it remains to be

:39:49.:39:53.

seen. All bills can be amended. The difference in position is what

:39:54.:39:56.

happens at the end of the day when the bill is voted on and in the

:39:57.:40:01.

present circumstances I don't think there is any possibility of the SNP

:40:02.:40:10.

MPs supporting Article 50. If there is a legislative consent motion in

:40:11.:40:13.

the Scottish Parliament, as I presumed will be, we will be voting

:40:14.:40:18.

against that process. It does in Article 50 is not just endorsing the

:40:19.:40:22.

vote in the United Kingdom, the vote in Scotland was very different, it

:40:23.:40:26.

is endorsing the position that Theresa May has taken on Brexit and

:40:27.:40:31.

endorsing the type of country that she wants. She wants an isolationist

:40:32.:40:35.

country, one that is in Word looking, and one that is rejecting

:40:36.:40:40.

the benefits of migration. That is not the country any of us want

:40:41.:40:45.

Scotland to be. That is the strongest reason for rejecting it.

:40:46.:40:50.

Will the SNP vote against triggering article 15 or matter how it is

:40:51.:40:58.

amended? Absolutely. I cannot conceive of circumstances where we

:40:59.:40:59.

would support the triggering conceive of circumstances where we

:41:00.:41:04.

Article 50. It takes this issue forward in an unacceptable way and

:41:05.:41:09.

takes the type of Brexit forwarded an unacceptable way and it declares

:41:10.:41:13.

the type of country that Theresa May once this country to be, and that is

:41:14.:41:18.

not the country that me or my colleagues or Scotland wants to be.

:41:19.:41:26.

There was a meeting you were at this week, a group are going to study the

:41:27.:41:30.

proposals in your paper on Brexit. Have you been given any reason to

:41:31.:41:35.

believe that the British Government will adopt the proposal you put

:41:36.:41:43.

forward in that paper? The first of the proposals in the paper has been

:41:44.:41:47.

rejected by the Prime Minister without consultation or discussion.

:41:48.:41:50.

Not only did she say so two days before the Committee met, there was

:41:51.:41:58.

no paper on Thursday saying that this was what the Prime Minister had

:41:59.:42:02.

decided and five. There was an agreement on Thursday to look at the

:42:03.:42:06.

other proposals, the proposals to do with Scotland remaining and the

:42:07.:42:10.

single market and on the customs union and on further devolution.

:42:11.:42:16.

They can look at those in detail and they are perfectly achievable. They

:42:17.:42:21.

will be hard, but they are achievable. That is the position we

:42:22.:42:26.

are now in. There was a feeling of frustration for the devolved

:42:27.:42:29.

administrations on Thursday because we were faced with decisions made

:42:30.:42:35.

outside the Committee, no respect for the Committee at the devolved

:42:36.:42:38.

institutions, and the reasons given. We still have not seen the workings

:42:39.:42:41.

that Theresa May used to say we should not be in the single market.

:42:42.:42:47.

When you said after the meeting that the clock is ticking, what did you

:42:48.:42:53.

mean? The clock is ticking on the process we are engaged in because

:42:54.:43:00.

that has got to be real, there has to be a work programme that makes

:43:01.:43:04.

sense. The clock is also taking in terms of an independence referendum

:43:05.:43:09.

because there is an alternative to the present situation. We really

:43:10.:43:15.

want to try and get a negotiated solution, we put everything into

:43:16.:43:21.

that, but it does not appear that is being paid any respect or given any

:43:22.:43:26.

consideration, because this is a very well worked out series of

:43:27.:43:31.

proposals. The clock is ticking and this is not a process that will last

:43:32.:43:36.

forever. Article 50 is meant to be triggered by the end of March, but

:43:37.:43:40.

we have not seen a scrap of paper to see what will be in this letter, we

:43:41.:43:45.

have not seen the working that has gone into that, and we have not been

:43:46.:43:49.

consulted despite reference to joint ministerial Committee. Supporters of

:43:50.:43:59.

Theresa May and her Government has said saying that the clock is

:44:00.:44:03.

ticking and continuing to threaten an independence referendum does not

:44:04.:44:07.

mean anything. We can read the polling figures as well as you can

:44:08.:44:12.

and we know that is not a majority in Scotland for independence, with

:44:13.:44:15.

even less support for another independence referendum. All your

:44:16.:44:20.

talk of clocks ticking and the threat of another referendum does

:44:21.:44:24.

not put any pressure on us, they would say. How would you reply to

:44:25.:44:30.

that? There is no threat to be made. We said at the beginning of this

:44:31.:44:33.

process there were a series of options that needed to be considered

:44:34.:44:38.

and went through this carefully. We also said there was a democratic

:44:39.:44:43.

mandate to hold another referendum if we were taken out of Europe

:44:44.:44:48.

against our well. My point is, given the way that the polling figures

:44:49.:44:51.

are, it does not look like it is wanted. I don't think there is any

:44:52.:44:57.

doubt that a campaign focused on the type of country we want to live and

:44:58.:45:02.

would be a very effective campaign indeed. If you look at where the

:45:03.:45:07.

polls were at the start of the campaign for the 2014 referendum and

:45:08.:45:10.

where they ended up, the possibility of significant progress absolutely

:45:11.:45:17.

exists. We're looking at the options carefully one by one and we are this

:45:18.:45:22.

in a rational way and unlike the UK Government. It is possible to move

:45:23.:45:28.

forward on a well worked out compromise position and that is

:45:29.:45:33.

still on the table. There are no threats being made, we are working

:45:34.:45:37.

our way through a logical set of options. I wish the people that we

:45:38.:45:44.

are negotiating with were as logical as we are. You said in the paper you

:45:45.:45:48.

produced that you seem to accept that should your idea of Scotland

:45:49.:45:52.

joining the European Union free-trade area and staying in the

:45:53.:45:57.

single market, that to get anywhere with that you would need the

:45:58.:46:01.

sponsorship of the British Government. Have you formally as the

:46:02.:46:05.

British Government to sponsor that? It is in the paper... Have you as

:46:06.:46:14.

the? Should the UK Government agree that there should be in the

:46:15.:46:19.

negotiating position for Article 50, they would be expected to do that

:46:20.:46:23.

and at the appropriate minute we will see that needs to go in the

:46:24.:46:27.

letter. There is another way to do that which is to give the Scottish

:46:28.:46:33.

Parliament the powers, the treaty powers, for its devolved areas and

:46:34.:46:38.

to give a legal personality. That is what happened in Belgium with the

:46:39.:46:43.

devolved parliaments there. There are options within this paper. As of

:46:44.:46:51.

now, the British Government has given you no indication that it

:46:52.:46:55.

would either sponsor Scotland's in doing this, which would mean the

:46:56.:47:01.

British Government would have to negotiate with the other 27 members

:47:02.:47:05.

of the European Union over this, nor have they given you any indication

:47:06.:47:09.

that they would give you the legislative power to do it yourself.

:47:10.:47:16.

Is that correct? As of now, we are in the joint process of examining

:47:17.:47:23.

the process in the paper. It is being considered by officials on

:47:24.:47:27.

both sides with the involvement of ministers. That is the position we

:47:28.:47:31.

are in and that is the position that we want to lead, but in the Article

:47:32.:47:36.

50 letter there will be a section that says this is what we want to

:47:37.:47:41.

see happen with Scotland, we will undergo shapeless, and we will

:47:42.:47:45.

support the United Kingdom Government in negotiating that

:47:46.:47:49.

position if they decide to put that in the article 15 letter. But they

:47:50.:47:52.

have not said they will support this? This paper is being debated

:47:53.:47:59.

and discussed. We will support the United Kingdom Government of

:48:00.:48:02.

drafting that section of the Article 50 letter and on the negotiations on

:48:03.:48:06.

choose a degree that should happen. choose a degree that should happen.

:48:07.:48:13.

-- if they choose to agree. The other devolved administrations know

:48:14.:48:16.

how important this servers and Northern Ireland the situation is

:48:17.:48:22.

more serious. 15% of Scotland's exports go to the European Union,

:48:23.:48:28.

compared to over 60% to the rest of the United Kingdom. Can we take it

:48:29.:48:34.

that if you do have another referendum campaign, that you will

:48:35.:48:37.

propose as single market with the UK? Of course, because we have

:48:38.:48:44.

proposed that before. We said that we did not expect there to be any

:48:45.:48:50.

interruption in trade. You can look at this to the other end of the

:48:51.:48:54.

telescope and say that is what the rest of the United Kingdom is saying

:48:55.:48:59.

about the EU and its continuing arrangements. We want to continue to

:49:00.:49:04.

trade. Anyone who says there is an either or is malicious or mistaken.

:49:05.:49:11.

ICU yacht is waiting to take you away so we better leave it there.

:49:12.:49:17.

Thank you. I'm afraid not, but thank you.

:49:18.:49:23.

The Prime Minister this week confirmed what most of us

:49:24.:49:25.

Britain will leave the European single market.

:49:26.:49:28.

Theresa May promised to push instead for the "freest possible trade"

:49:29.:49:30.

with Europe but reaching a deal before we leave seems,

:49:31.:49:33.

at this stage, well, at the very least debatable.

:49:34.:49:35.

In the meantime, our imports and exports could be

:49:36.:49:37.

Graham Stewart's been finding out how that might affect Scotland's

:49:38.:49:40.

We have here, Graham, wines from Bordeaux on the left-hand side. At a

:49:41.:49:53.

wine importers of Livingston, free trade with Europe is essential to

:49:54.:50:00.

their business. And these ones here? You are a man of expensive taste but

:50:01.:50:06.

quality. This is from 2006, very good vintage. Whether it is a fine

:50:07.:50:11.

claret or a cheeky Chardonnay, Brexit will not end our love affair

:50:12.:50:13.

with fine wines, but the future does Brexit will not end our love affair

:50:14.:50:19.

not look so rosy. The wine trade has survived the Reformation, the union

:50:20.:50:24.

of Parliament and during the Jacobite area, nationals took to

:50:25.:50:29.

claret as a portion to report as a sign of their independence. But how

:50:30.:50:32.

will the wine trade survived Brexit? The immediate impact was on the

:50:33.:50:38.

foreign exchange, we import all of our products from abroad, both

:50:39.:50:41.

within the European Community or from out with, Australia, South

:50:42.:50:50.

America, South Africa... There was a 20% drop in foreign exchange for 20%

:50:51.:50:57.

increase in our costs. And that this before Brexit has even happened. The

:50:58.:51:00.

Prime Minister last week was optimistic that Britain can strike a

:51:01.:51:04.

new free trade deal with Europe, but all the signs so far suggest

:51:05.:51:09.

European leaders are unwilling to start negotiating a deal until after

:51:10.:51:14.

we leave. So how long do trade negotiations normally take? The

:51:15.:51:19.

answer is there is no normal. The US and the EU started to put together a

:51:20.:51:23.

deal and said they would do it within 18 months. We are still

:51:24.:51:27.

trying to negotiate that and it may die with Mr Trump coming to power,

:51:28.:51:32.

but that is still going on for years later. Quite a few negotiations... I

:51:33.:51:37.

have known negotiations that have been going for ten years and have

:51:38.:51:42.

not been completed. In the intron, Britain might have to operate under

:51:43.:51:45.

the rules of the World Trade Organisation and that would mean

:51:46.:51:48.

tariffs on imports and exports, which would impose costs on our

:51:49.:51:54.

industries. There are wide range of tariffs, some are zero, a lot of

:51:55.:52:00.

trade is zero. But others are quite high, from motor cars, for example,

:52:01.:52:06.

the tariff is 10%, that adds 10% onto the price. There are other

:52:07.:52:10.

areas where it is even higher, particularly for food. Forlan, for

:52:11.:52:15.

example, there is a percentage tariff of 12.8% and then on top that

:52:16.:52:29.

you is a 1700 euros export that has been paid to get the lamb into the

:52:30.:52:32.

EU offer the EU to get Islam into the UK. That has set off alarm bells

:52:33.:52:35.

in Scotland's food and rent industries that are worried about

:52:36.:52:38.

becoming a bargaining chip in any trade negotiations. In Scotland we

:52:39.:52:44.

represent 19% of all manufacturing jobs and another ?14 million to the

:52:45.:52:48.

economy. That is enormously important to the economy of Scotland

:52:49.:52:52.

and our concern is that if food and drink is not privatised in those

:52:53.:52:55.

negotiations, huge and important jobs will be lost. -- is not

:52:56.:53:03.

prioritised. And at Scotland's oldest delicatessen, it might in

:53:04.:53:06.

future cost more to buy your favourite Italian cheese. But as a

:53:07.:53:11.

company, they are not using the head just yet. We must trust our

:53:12.:53:16.

negotiators at the end of the day and I am sure they are doing their

:53:17.:53:24.

very best for Britain. I also guess that we still are in the EEC for the

:53:25.:53:30.

next two years until we are out. So life must continue. So there does

:53:31.:53:36.

not worry about it, let us think about it and hopefully influence,

:53:37.:53:39.

but we have two years to go yet. Still, that does not give the

:53:40.:53:43.

Britain much time to find experienced negotiators who know

:53:44.:53:48.

their onions, but if the civil service is looking for

:53:49.:53:51.

inspiration... There is a man in the White House who is good at making

:53:52.:53:53.

deals. Now, before her speech this week,

:53:54.:53:56.

all we really knew about the UK Government's plans for Brexit

:53:57.:54:00.

were that it means Brexit. Then this week we got a glimpse of

:54:01.:54:02.

what Theresa May's plans might be... It was a vote to restore as we see

:54:03.:54:13.

it our parliamentary democracy, national survey termination and to

:54:14.:54:18.

become even more global and internationalist in action and in

:54:19.:54:23.

spirit. And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership between an

:54:24.:54:27.

independent self-governing global Britain and our friends and allies

:54:28.:54:29.

in the EU. But the Prime Minister's speech has

:54:30.:54:31.

led some commentators to conclude that Theresa May has favoured

:54:32.:54:33.

the political argument With me to discuss this,

:54:34.:54:35.

in Edinburgh, is Christina Boswell, who's Professor of Politics

:54:36.:54:39.

at the University of Edinburgh, and in our Dundee studio

:54:40.:54:41.

is Brad MacKay, Professor of Strategic Management

:54:42.:54:43.

at the University of St Andrews. Christina Boswell, you think that

:54:44.:54:55.

politics are winning on this, do you? It is always politics, isn't

:54:56.:55:00.

it? We are used to the idea that the economy is a very salient issue for

:55:01.:55:04.

voters, so they typically put the economy at the top of the robust

:55:05.:55:08.

when deciding what position to support. In this case, Theresa May

:55:09.:55:13.

had all made a calculation that economics is not such a salient

:55:14.:55:24.

issue in regard to Brexit and you must remember that the economic

:55:25.:55:26.

prognosis about the effect of Brexit on the UK economy are fairly complex

:55:27.:55:29.

and abstract. It is not immediately clear to many voters how leaving the

:55:30.:55:32.

EU will affect them economically and I think also people are quite wary

:55:33.:55:36.

about different economic forecasts, they are not necessarily trusting,

:55:37.:55:39.

they do not find incredible because they have been politicised, people

:55:40.:55:43.

see them as partisan claims supporting different positions and I

:55:44.:55:46.

think finally, there is another issue around the economy, which is

:55:47.:55:49.

that the type of national indicators that we typically used to measure

:55:50.:55:53.

economic performance do not necessarily resonate with people's

:55:54.:55:58.

experience at the moment. We are told GDP is rising and that

:55:59.:56:01.

employment figures are strong and rising, but that does not

:56:02.:56:04.

necessarily correspond to how people feel in their lives. Into the vacuum

:56:05.:56:09.

then steps these more emotive and perhaps more compelling arguments

:56:10.:56:16.

about identity, immigration. Brad MacKay, Theresa May would tell you

:56:17.:56:19.

she is not putting politics ahead of economics, she has an economic plan.

:56:20.:56:25.

There is an economic plan, that is the certainly come out of the single

:56:26.:56:27.

market and possibly come out of the certainly come out of the single

:56:28.:56:31.

customs union and then to launch on this global strategy of striking

:56:32.:56:35.

deals across the world. One of the issues and Christina has touched on

:56:36.:56:38.

it is that there are lot of contradictions that exist and are

:56:39.:56:46.

being brought about by taking a more political line or putting political

:56:47.:56:48.

issues at the forefront of the government's strategy.

:56:49.:56:52.

issues at the forefront of the economists say trade is one area of

:56:53.:56:54.

economics that is pretty straight forward and if you leave the

:56:55.:57:00.

European Union, it will harm Britain's trade, not just with the

:57:01.:57:03.

European Union but the rest of the world. Did you agree with that or do

:57:04.:57:06.

you think there is a possibility that we could do some of the very

:57:07.:57:09.

successful deals that Theresa May would like to do? I think that the

:57:10.:57:14.

government has set out a very ambitious strategy and as a said

:57:15.:57:19.

before, there are a lot of different contradictions. For example, coming

:57:20.:57:24.

out of the single market, certainly coming out of the customs union and

:57:25.:57:27.

then trying to replicate that on either a sectorial basis on in its

:57:28.:57:32.

entirety but without some of those political issues that will be

:57:33.:57:35.

important for the European Union, like the movement of free people and

:57:36.:57:40.

coming under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The

:57:41.:57:43.

challenge that the UK has, which also present another contradiction,

:57:44.:57:47.

is that at the moment the UK is trying to embark on a global

:57:48.:57:52.

strategy when the forces of protectionism are coming to the

:57:53.:57:54.

fore. So it will be very challenging. And trying to replicate

:57:55.:58:01.

even some of the, what the UK currently has in terms of access to

:58:02.:58:04.

the single market in terms of the sectorial basis, that may indeed

:58:05.:58:08.

come into conflict with some of the world trade organisation rules. So

:58:09.:58:12.

there are all kinds of different contradictions that exist within the

:58:13.:58:15.

correct strategy that would have to be reconciled before the UK would be

:58:16.:58:19.

able to negotiate what would be a set of very complex deals that would

:58:20.:58:22.

leave it better off and I think most economists would agree that because

:58:23.:58:26.

the UK is seen very much as a gateway by a lot of foreign

:58:27.:58:31.

investors into the EU, it is going to be a very tall order indeed to

:58:32.:58:36.

try and achieve that. The other side of that, Christina Boswell is, of

:58:37.:58:40.

course, at least we're not really seeing any bad economic effects of

:58:41.:58:41.

leaving. I take the point that we seeing any bad economic effects of

:58:42.:58:48.

have not done it yet, but when the governor of the Bank of England is

:58:49.:58:51.

telling us that the main threat to short-term financial stability in

:58:52.:58:53.

the UK is no longer Brexit, that must mean something. Yes, but how

:58:54.:58:58.

this plays out politically for Theresa May in the next months and

:58:59.:59:01.

years will depend on a number of things and one of those is the

:59:02.:59:06.

economic indicators and how Brexit is affecting the economy as

:59:07.:59:10.

decisions are made and as the negotiation outcome becomes clearer.

:59:11.:59:15.

We have also got to bear in mind that there are other factors which

:59:16.:59:18.

could play quite negatively for Theresa May. For example, if it

:59:19.:59:24.

looks like the negotiation process will be protracted, it will be very

:59:25.:59:28.

difficult if the EU is very intransigent in its negotiation

:59:29.:59:32.

position. But also a lot is riding on the government's ability to

:59:33.:59:39.

restrict immigration and I am not that confident that the government

:59:40.:59:43.

will be able to do so, it has not managed to restrict non-EU

:59:44.:59:46.

immigration since 2010. I do not think it will fare much better in

:59:47.:59:49.

restricting EU immigration, so I think there could be a lot of

:59:50.:59:52.

disappointed voters out there. What do you think the Scottish Government

:59:53.:59:57.

should do? Two possible strategies, one is to say, look, this is what we

:59:58.:00:03.

want, if we do not get it, we will have another independence

:00:04.:00:06.

referendum. Arguably there is another price which is that a whole

:00:07.:00:11.

lot of powers are going to be devolved probably because when you

:00:12.:00:14.

leave the European Union they could see, for example, we want limited

:00:15.:00:17.

powers over immigration. There was see, for example, we want limited

:00:18.:00:20.

video that was done with Jack McConnell many years ago, if you

:00:21.:00:24.

remember, on students. Things like that that could give them a bit more

:00:25.:00:27.

flexibility. I think that is correct. The Lewis Cook for some

:00:28.:00:32.

leverage there. In the speech of Theresa May on Tuesday she spoke

:00:33.:00:36.

about the repatriation of powers, as it is called, and she made in north

:00:37.:00:40.

to the idea that it might make sense for some of those Paris to come back

:00:41.:00:44.

to the devolved administrations and others to go back to Westminster. So

:00:45.:00:48.

she seems to be signalling some flexibility there, however it does

:00:49.:00:52.

not go anywhere near the type of proposals put forward by Nicola

:00:53.:00:58.

Sturgeon just before Christmas, which was aiming towards a fully

:00:59.:01:02.

differentiated approach with Scotland retaining access to the

:01:03.:01:08.

single market. In terms of the SNP's negotiating position as it were, I

:01:09.:01:12.

think that the Lions have really hard and through this set of

:01:13.:01:17.

proposals that were advanced before Christmas and now Theresa May's

:01:18.:01:21.

speech. It will be very difficult, I think, to pull back from those hard

:01:22.:01:25.

divisions which have become crystallised now. It is very

:01:26.:01:30.

difficult to envisage avoiding a second referendum on Scottish

:01:31.:01:34.

independence, I think. What do you think about that, Brad MacKay? It

:01:35.:01:38.

might be wrong in this, but I think one of the argument that was put

:01:39.:01:44.

forward in the past about devolving the EFTA was because it was

:01:45.:01:47.

earmarked for paying into the European Union, you could not have

:01:48.:01:50.

different VAT rates around the UK. But as long as we're not in the EU,

:01:51.:01:54.

the Scottish Government can say they can have control of VAT, thank you

:01:55.:01:59.

very much. -- VAT. I think there is a lot of scope for devolving a lot

:02:00.:02:04.

more powers to the Scottish Government. If you look at something

:02:05.:02:09.

like even immigration and you take the example of Canada and Quebec.

:02:10.:02:13.

Quebec has a customised deal as a province in Canada with the Canadian

:02:14.:02:16.

federal government to have a lot more control over that. So I think

:02:17.:02:20.

there is a lot of scope in being able to do that. I think we're some

:02:21.:02:25.

of the challenges for the Scottish Government come in are that the

:02:26.:02:28.

reality is that Scotland's economy is a very highly integrated thing

:02:29.:02:34.

with the rest of the UK. Somewhere between 60% and 70% of Scottish

:02:35.:02:38.

exports actually go to the rest of the UK, only about 15% would go to

:02:39.:02:42.

the European Union. I think there are some areas where powers could be

:02:43.:02:45.

devolved to the Scottish Government, which would allow the Scottish

:02:46.:02:49.

Government to tailor various policies to the needs of Scotland

:02:50.:02:53.

and immigration would potentially be one of them. I think when it comes

:02:54.:02:58.

to trying to negotiate some sort of halfway house between a single

:02:59.:03:02.

market in the UK and the single market in Europe, that presents a

:03:03.:03:06.

whole lot of challenges that will be difficult to overcome. Christina

:03:07.:03:09.

Boswell, briefly on immigration, you said a minute ago it could be very

:03:10.:03:12.

difficult for the British government to control immigration to the extent

:03:13.:03:19.

that they would like, even if they get powers over immigration back,

:03:20.:03:21.

which they would by beating the EU, is that a potential pitfall with

:03:22.:03:29.

Brexit if it does not deliver the thing that many people voted for

:03:30.:03:30.

Brexit if it does not deliver the Brexit in order to achieve? I think

:03:31.:03:35.

it could be a potential pitfall but a lot depends upon how the

:03:36.:03:39.

government manages to shape the narrative and every listen to the

:03:40.:03:42.

language being used by Theresa May at the moment, she does not talk

:03:43.:03:45.

about ridges, she does not talk about bring down, she talks about

:03:46.:03:49.

control, controlling emigration... about bring down, she talks about

:03:50.:03:53.

And again. I am thinking, we are seeing a subtle shift away from the

:03:54.:03:59.

language around reducing net migration towards controlling and

:04:00.:04:02.

that is a narrative around selectivity, the brightest and best,

:04:03.:04:04.

selecting those immigrants that will selectivity, the brightest and best,

:04:05.:04:08.

be beneficial towards our economy. I suspect you want to shape the

:04:09.:04:12.

narrative like that, that it is not uncontrolled immigration for anyone

:04:13.:04:15.

who wants to come here but controlled immigration, possibly

:04:16.:04:18.

similar numbers, but of those who reselect the benefit our economy.

:04:19.:04:22.

Christina Boswell and Brad MacKay, thank you both very much indeed.

:04:23.:04:25.

Time now to look at the stories from the week gone by and those

:04:26.:04:28.

With me this week are Caron Lindsay, editor of Liberal Democrat Voice,

:04:29.:04:34.

and the SNP's former head of communications turned

:04:35.:04:36.

communications consultant, Kevin Pringle.

:04:37.:04:42.

Kevin, you were there during the last independence referendum. If you

:04:43.:04:53.

were still there, what would you say to the Scottish Government? Would

:04:54.:04:55.

you say go for a referendum next year or would you tell them to wait?

:04:56.:05:02.

I think another referendum is increasingly likely and I think it

:05:03.:05:07.

is unavoidable. In terms of the result of the European referendum,

:05:08.:05:11.

it was such a deferential result across the UK, the fact it was

:05:12.:05:15.

included in the SNP manifesto last year... Would you still go for it?

:05:16.:05:26.

Yes, for two reasons. They polls are around pretty work in 2014, but to

:05:27.:05:33.

begin at 45% is different from 2014 when we began... The counter to that

:05:34.:05:40.

is to say that at the beginning of 2014 a lot of people had not

:05:41.:05:46.

decided. It is more polarised now. I think it is more polarised but it is

:05:47.:05:51.

also more fluid than people think. There has been a shift in both

:05:52.:05:56.

directions, some have gone from no two yes, some have gone from yes to

:05:57.:06:02.

no. I think it will be much easier to get people who have gone from yes

:06:03.:06:08.

to no back again, and even if that is all that happens the referendum

:06:09.:06:17.

result would be yes. The framing of the referendum in a post-Brexit

:06:18.:06:21.

situation... What Nicola Sturgeon would like to do is say that the

:06:22.:06:27.

referendum is not about Brexit at about putting Brexit in the wider

:06:28.:06:36.

context of the Democratic... The point Kenny MacAskill has been

:06:37.:06:42.

making is that a lot of SNP yes voters, whether they were SNP voters

:06:43.:06:46.

are not, voted to leave the European Union. He argues that there should

:06:47.:06:51.

not be another referendum but also that when there is one it should not

:06:52.:06:55.

be a bit Europe because you have to win over previous yes photos he

:06:56.:07:02.

voted to leave Europe. I think that will be possible because Brexit is

:07:03.:07:05.

an extreme example of democratic deficit. Since 2010 there has been a

:07:06.:07:12.

UK Government supported by only one member of Parliament in Scotland.

:07:13.:07:13.

UK Government supported by only one The equivalent would be for Scotland

:07:14.:07:18.

to be governed by a country that only had nine MPs. That is the

:07:19.:07:25.

result of an election system you do not support. It is only because of

:07:26.:07:32.

first past the post their SNP has got so many. It is the reality that

:07:33.:07:37.

Scotland finds itself in. It is fertile territory to deliver a yes

:07:38.:07:43.

vote. These reports this morning that Liberal Democrats among others

:07:44.:07:48.

by looking at putting amendment should the Supreme Court decide

:07:49.:07:51.

there will have to be legislation on Article 50. That is something you

:07:52.:07:57.

think may show some promise or a do you think the Conservatives will

:07:58.:08:01.

just dismantle the? I don't think the ad server to Tory nationalism is

:08:02.:08:07.

SNP national of them. I think the SNP and the Liberal Democrats and

:08:08.:08:11.

other people in Parliament should be working together to secure a

:08:12.:08:14.

referendum on the Brexit deal, because I think that is the best way

:08:15.:08:19.

of making sure the whole UK stays in the single market. What do you think

:08:20.:08:27.

of Michael Russell's tactic that we will put forward lots of amendments

:08:28.:08:30.

to the bill but we will vote against it anyway? We need to see how it

:08:31.:08:37.

shapes up. That is an odd way to proceed. We can see what happens in

:08:38.:08:42.

the House of Commons but I think the reality is that these amendment is

:08:43.:08:48.

unlikely to be successful. That is a strong Democratic position for the

:08:49.:08:55.

SNP MPs to base their caisson. Can they completely rejected? It is not

:08:56.:09:01.

impossible that enough Conservatives might vote for these amendments. The

:09:02.:09:08.

majority of Conservative MPs were first staying in the European Union.

:09:09.:09:12.

The problem is you have to see what the Labour Party do. They are not

:09:13.:09:18.

providing any opposition whatsoever. They are just saying they will vote

:09:19.:09:25.

for Article 50 whatever, which is wrong. If people were working

:09:26.:09:28.

together we could really make some changes. Labour are not here to

:09:29.:09:35.

defend themselves, but I think they would say calling for another

:09:36.:09:41.

referendum on the outcome of negotiations is ignoring the

:09:42.:09:45.

referendum result. You criticise the SNP for ignoring the result of the

:09:46.:09:49.

independence referendum, but you're doing the same of the Brexit

:09:50.:09:52.

referendum. We had no idea what Brexit would look like. How is that

:09:53.:10:00.

different from the SNP saying that they had no idea Scotland would vote

:10:01.:10:01.

different from the SNP saying that to stay in the EU and the rest of

:10:02.:10:05.

the UK wouldn't. You respect the result or you do not stop you

:10:06.:10:11.

respect the vote for a departure but people did not vote for the

:10:12.:10:17.

destination. But Scotland voted... That is the same as the SNP saying

:10:18.:10:22.

that Scotland voted to stay in the UK but we did not know that would be

:10:23.:10:26.

a European referendum in Scotland. Therefore that invalidates the

:10:27.:10:31.

outcome of the referendum. You cannot accuse the SNP for not

:10:32.:10:35.

telling us what independence would look like. We did not have that in

:10:36.:10:42.

the league campaign. Theresa May has chosen the most extreme version of

:10:43.:10:48.

Brexit on a very slim majority. I think people need to have a vote on

:10:49.:10:55.

what Brexit looks like. The SNP are saying that we might have another

:10:56.:11:01.

independence referendum, that is one thing, but it is another thing to

:11:02.:11:05.

say there should be a referendum across the UK on the results of the

:11:06.:11:10.

negotiation. I don't know what view the SNP would take on that, but the

:11:11.:11:16.

difference between the independence referendum, where the definition of

:11:17.:11:18.

what an independent Scotland would look like in that 600 page document

:11:19.:11:26.

that everyone had available, that was provided before the referendum.

:11:27.:11:29.

that everyone had available, that All the definition of what Brexit is

:11:30.:11:32.

good to look like him and after the vote, so there is a case to consider

:11:33.:11:39.

the issue of another referendum on the grounds that none of the

:11:40.:11:46.

definition was there. Many leading leave campaigners said explicitly

:11:47.:11:49.

that voting to leave was not about leaving the single European market.

:11:50.:11:55.

One who had pursued Brexit for decades made a point of saying the

:11:56.:12:02.

UK would stay in the single European market, the opposite of what is

:12:03.:12:05.

happening. When the opposite of what was said would happen is actually

:12:06.:12:11.

about to come about there is a case to consider that. With no additional

:12:12.:12:19.

spectre Dan, just because he said... Many people said that. Leaving the

:12:20.:12:25.

European Union is not about leaving the single market. If you look at

:12:26.:12:29.

the Tory manifesto for 2015, they said they were in terms -- they were

:12:30.:12:34.

in favour of remaining in the single market. We have heard from Theresa

:12:35.:12:40.

May that this is not the case. Then you come into the issue that that is

:12:41.:12:47.

the ground upon which the SNP have chosen to rest the bulk of their

:12:48.:12:51.

case, that Scotland should remain in the single market and the same is

:12:52.:12:56.

true for Northern Ireland. That should be taken into account. We

:12:57.:13:01.

cannot end this programme about giving you a chance to tell us how

:13:02.:13:08.

much admired Donald Trump. There is a cause for optimism. The marchers

:13:09.:13:14.

we saw yesterday, I think that will bring people who've never been

:13:15.:13:19.

involved in politics into trying to get a stake in the future, to try

:13:20.:13:25.

and fight against what he is doing. We have seen how he has torn up all

:13:26.:13:32.

the stuff on Obama care, health care, climate change... A quick

:13:33.:13:39.

comment on Donald Trump. What do you think of what he is done? It has all

:13:40.:13:44.

been about Donald Trump. I think it might be a mistake for a Theresa May

:13:45.:13:51.

to go there because it is still very raw and controversial. We need to

:13:52.:13:54.

leave it there. I'll be back at the

:13:55.:13:55.

same time next week. There's live Scottish Cup action

:13:56.:13:58.

next Sunday, as Hearts travel to Stark's Park

:13:59.:14:09.

to take on Raith Rovers. Can the Championship side

:14:10.:14:13.

cause a Cup upset -

:14:14.:14:17.

Download Subtitles

SRT

ASS