22/01/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


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22/01/2017

Andrew Neil, Gordon Brewer and shadow home secretary Diane Abbott provide reaction to Theresa May's Brexit speech and look at the inauguration of US president Donald Trump.


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It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:41.

Theresa May will be the first foreign leader to visit US

:00:42.:00:44.

President Donald Trump this week - she's promised to hold "very

:00:45.:00:47.

frank" conversations with the new and controversial

:00:48.:00:50.

Speaking of the 45th President of America,

:00:51.:00:57.

we'll be looking at what the Trump presidency could hold

:00:58.:01:00.

in store for Britain and the rest of the world.

:01:01.:01:06.

And with the Supreme Court expected to say that Parliament should

:01:07.:01:09.

have a vote before the Brexit process begins, we'll ask

:01:10.:01:12.

Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott what Labour will do next.

:01:13.:01:18.

And on Sunday Politics Scotland, the Brexit Minister, Mike Russell,

:01:19.:01:20.

says SNP MPs would vote against the triggering of Article 50

:01:21.:01:22.

And to talk about all of that and more, I'm joined by three

:01:23.:01:40.

journalists who, in an era of so-called fake news, can be

:01:41.:01:42.

relied upon for their accuracy, their impartiality -

:01:43.:01:46.

and their willingness to come to the studio

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It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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and Tom Newton Dunn, and during the programme they'll be

:01:56.:02:02.

tweeting as often as the 45th President of the USA in the middle

:02:03.:02:05.

So - the Prime Minister has been appearing on the BBC this morning.

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She was mostly talking about Donald Trump and Brexit,

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but she was also asked about a story on the front of this

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It's reported that an unarmed Trident missile test fired

:02:22.:02:25.

from the submarine HMS Vengeance near the Florida coast in June

:02:26.:02:31.

The paper says the incident took place weeks before a crucial Commons

:02:32.:02:39.

Well, let's have listen to Theresa May talking

:02:40.:02:43.

The issue that we were talking about in the House of Commons

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It was about whether or not we should renew Trident,

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whether we should look to the future and have a replacement Trident.

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That's what we were talking about in the House of Commons.

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That's what the House of Commons voted for.

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He doesn't want to defend our country with an independent

:03:02.:03:06.

There are tests that take place all the time, regularly,

:03:07.:03:14.

What we were talking about in that debate that took place...

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I'm not going to get an answer to this.

:03:23.:03:29.

Tom, it was clear this was going to come up this morning. It is on the

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front page of the Sunday Times. It would seem to me the Prime Minister

:03:37.:03:40.

wasn't properly briefed on how to reply. I think she probably was, but

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the Prime Minister we now have doesn't necessarily answer all

:03:48.:03:50.

questions in the straightest way. She didn't answer that one and all.

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Unlike previous ones? She made it quite clear she was briefed. You

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read between the Theresa May lines. By simply not answering Andrew Marr

:04:06.:04:10.

four times, it is obvious she knew, and that she knew before she went

:04:11.:04:13.

into the House of Commons and urged everyone to renew the ?40 billion

:04:14.:04:20.

replacement programme. Of course it is an embarrassment, but does it

:04:21.:04:23.

have political legs? I don't think so. She didn't mislead the Commons.

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If she wanted to close it down, the answer should have been, these are

:04:30.:04:35.

matters of national security. There's nothing more important in

:04:36.:04:38.

that than our nuclear deterrent. I'm not prepared to talk about testing.

:04:39.:04:45.

End of. But she didn't. Maybe you should be briefing her. That's a

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good answer. She is an interesting interviewee. She shows it when she

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is nervous. She was transparently uneasy answering those questions,

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and the fact she didn't answer it definitively suggests she did know

:05:00.:05:05.

and didn't want to say it, and she answered awkwardly. But how wider

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point, that the House of Commons voted for the renewal of Trident,

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suggests to me that in the broader sweep of things, this will not run,

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because if there was another vote, I would suggest she'd win it again.

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But it is an embarrassment and she handled it with a transparent

:05:26.:05:30.

awkwardness. She said that the tests go on all the time, but not of the

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missiles. Does it not show that when the Prime Minister leaves her

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comfort zone of Home Office affairs or related matters, she often

:05:41.:05:45.

struggles. We've seen it under questioning from Mr Corbyn even, and

:05:46.:05:52.

we saw it again today. Absolutely. Tests of various aspects of the

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missiles go on all the time, but there's only been five since 2000.

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What you described wouldn't have worked, because in previous tests

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they have always been very public about it. Look how well our missiles

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work! She may not have misled Parliament, but she may not have

:06:14.:06:21.

known about it. If she didn't know, does Michael Fallon still have a job

:06:22.:06:25.

on Monday? Should Parliament know about a test that doesn't work? Some

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would say absolutely not. Our deterrent is there to deter people

:06:33.:06:38.

from attacking us. If they know that we are hitting the United States by

:06:39.:06:43.

mistake rather than the Atlantic Ocean, then... There is such a thing

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as national security, and telling all the bad guys about where we are

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going wrong may not be a good idea. It was her first statement as Prime

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Minister to put her case for renewal, to have the vote on

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Trident, and in that context, it is significant not to say anything. If

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anyone knows where the missile landed, give us a call!

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So Donald Trump's inauguration day closed with him dancing

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to Frank Sinatra's My Way, and whatever your view on the 45th

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President of the United States he certainly did do it his way.

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Not for him the idealistic call for national unity -

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instead he used Friday's inaugural address to launch a blistering

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attack on the dark state of the nation and the political

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class, and to promise to take his uncompromising approach

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from the campaign trail to the White House.

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Here's Adam Fleming, with a reminder of how

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First, dropping by for a cup of tea and a slightly awkward exchange

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Then, friends, foes and predecessors watched

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I, Donald John Trump, do solemnly swear...

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The crowds seemed smaller than previous inaugurations,

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the speech tougher then any previous incoming president.

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From this day forth, it's going to be only America first.

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In the meantime, there were sporadic protests in Washington, DC.

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Opponents made their voices heard around the world too.

:08:45.:08:48.

The President, who'd criticised the work of

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the intelligence agencies, fitted in a visit to the CIA.

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There is nobody that feels stronger about the intelligence community

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And, back at the office, in the dark, a signature signalled

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the end of the Obama era and the dawn of Trump.

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So, as you heard there, President Trump used his

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inauguration to repeat his campaign promise to put "America first"

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in all his decisions, and offered some hints of what to expect

:09:25.:09:27.

He talked of in America in carnage, to be rebuilt by American hands and

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American Labour. President Trump has already started to dismantle key

:09:45.:09:48.

parts of the Obama Legacy, including the unwinding of the affordable care

:09:49.:09:52.

act, and the siding of the climate action plan to tackle global

:09:53.:09:58.

warning. Little to say about foreign policy, but promised to eradicate

:09:59.:10:02.

Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth, insisting he would

:10:03.:10:07.

restore the US military to unquestioning dominance. He also

:10:08.:10:13.

said the US would develop a state missile defence system to deal with

:10:14.:10:17.

threats he sees from Iran and North Korea. In a statement that painted a

:10:18.:10:22.

bleak picture of the country he now runs, he said his would be a law and

:10:23.:10:27.

order Administration, and he would keep the innocents safe by building

:10:28.:10:33.

the border war with Mexico. One thing he didn't mention, for the

:10:34.:10:38.

first time ever, there is a Eurosceptic in the oval office, who

:10:39.:10:41.

is also an enthusiast for Brexit. We're joined now by Ted Malloch -

:10:42.:10:44.

he's a Trump supporter who's been tipped as the president's

:10:45.:10:47.

choice for US ambassador to the EU, and he's

:10:48.:10:49.

just flown back from Washington. And by James Rubin -

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he's a democrat who served Let's start with that last point I

:10:52.:11:03.

made in the voice over there. We now have a Eurosceptic in the oval

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office. He is pro-Brexit and not keen on further European Union

:11:11.:11:13.

integration. What are the implications of that? First of all,

:11:14.:11:19.

a renewal of the US- UK special relationship. You see the Prime

:11:20.:11:24.

Minister already going to build and rebuild this relationship. Already,

:11:25.:11:28.

the bust of Winston Churchill is back in the oval office.

:11:29.:11:33.

Interestingly, Martin Luther King's bust is also there, so there is an

:11:34.:11:38.

act of unity in that first movement of dusts. Donald Trump will be

:11:39.:11:44.

oriented between bilateral relationships and not multilateral

:11:45.:11:55.

or supernatural. Supranational full. What are the implications of someone

:11:56.:12:00.

in the White House now not believing in it? I think we are present in the

:12:01.:12:06.

unravelling of America's leadership of the West. There is now a thing

:12:07.:12:10.

called the west that America has led since the end of World War II,

:12:11.:12:18.

creating supranational - we just heard supernatural! These

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institutions were created. With American leadership, the world was

:12:28.:12:32.

at peace in Europe, and the world grew increasingly democratic and

:12:33.:12:36.

prosperous. Wars were averted that could be extremely costly. When

:12:37.:12:41.

something works in diplomacy, you don't really understand what the

:12:42.:12:45.

consequences could have been. I think we've got complacent. The new

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president is taking advantage of that. It is a terrible tragedy that

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so many in the West take for granted the successful leadership and

:12:56.:13:00.

institutions we have built. You could argue, as James Rubin has

:13:01.:13:08.

argued in some articles, that... Will Mr Trump's America be more

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involved in the world than the Obama won? Or will it continue the process

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with running shoes on that began with Mr Obama? President Obama

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stepped back from American leadership. He withdrew from the

:13:27.:13:32.

world. He had a horrendous eight years in office, and American powers

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have diminished everywhere in the world, not just in Europe. That

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power will reassert. The focus will be on America first, but there are

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foreign interests around the world... How does it reassert itself

:13:47.:13:52.

around the world? I think the institutions will be recreated. Some

:13:53.:13:56.

may be taken down. There could be some new ones. I think Nato itself,

:13:57.:14:02.

and certainly the Defence Secretary will have discussions with Donald

:14:03.:14:06.

Trump about how Nato can be reshaped, and maybe there will be

:14:07.:14:10.

more burden sharing. That is an important thing for him. You are

:14:11.:14:15.

tipped to be the US ambassador to Brussels, to the EU, and we are

:14:16.:14:19.

still waiting to hear if that will happen. Is it true to say that Mr

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Trump does not believe in EU integration? I think you made that

:14:25.:14:34.

clear in the speech. He talked about supranational. He does not believe

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in those kinds of organisations. He is investing himself in bilateral

:14:43.:14:46.

relationships, the first of which will be with the UK. So we have a

:14:47.:14:51.

president who does not believe in EU integration and has been highly

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critical of Nato. Do the people he has appointed to defend, Secretary

:14:58.:15:02.

of State, national security, do you think that will temper this

:15:03.:15:06.

anti-NATO wretched? Will he come round to a more pro-NATO situation?

:15:07.:15:14.

I think those of us who care about America's situation in the world

:15:15.:15:19.

will come in to miss President Obama a lot. I think the Secretary of

:15:20.:15:24.

State and the faculty of defence will limit the damage and will urge

:15:25.:15:29.

him not to take formal steps to unravel this most powerful and most

:15:30.:15:34.

successful alliance in history, the Nato alliance. But the damage is

:15:35.:15:40.

already being done. When you are the leader of the West, leadership means

:15:41.:15:45.

you are persuading, encouraging, bolstering your leadership and these

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institutions by the way you speak. Millions, if not hundreds of

:15:52.:15:55.

millions of people, have now heard the US say that what they care about

:15:56.:15:57.

is within their borders. What do you say to that? It is such

:15:58.:16:06.

an overstatement. The point is that Donald Trump is in a Jacksonian

:16:07.:16:16.

tradition of national populism. He is appealing to the people first.

:16:17.:16:19.

The other day, I was sitting below this page during the address, and he

:16:20.:16:24.

said, everyone sitting behind me as part of the problem. Everyone in

:16:25.:16:28.

front of me, the crowd and the crowd on television, is part of the

:16:29.:16:32.

solution, so we are giving the Government back to the people. That

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emphasis is going to change American life, including American

:16:38.:16:40.

International relations. It doesn't moving the leak back -- it doesn't

:16:41.:16:49.

mean we are moving out of Nato, it simply means we will put our

:16:50.:16:54.

national interests first. There were echoes of Andrew Jackson's

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inauguration address of 1820. That night, the Jacksonians trashed the

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White House, but Mr Trump's people didn't do that, so there is a

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difference there. He also said something else in the address - that

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protectionism would lead to prosperity. I would suggest there is

:17:13.:17:19.

no evidence for that in the post-war world. He talked about protecting

:17:20.:17:25.

the American worker, American jobs, the American economy. I actually

:17:26.:17:27.

think that Donald Trump will not turn out to be a protectionist. If

:17:28.:17:35.

you read the heart of the deal... This is referring to two Republican

:17:36.:17:41.

senators who introduce massive tariffs in the Hoover

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administration. Exactly. If you read The Art Of The Deal, you will see

:17:51.:17:54.

how Donald Trump deals with individuals and countries. There is

:17:55.:17:57.

a lot of bluster, positioning, and I think you already see this in

:17:58.:18:04.

bringing jobs by the United States. Things are going to change. Let's

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also deal with this proposition. China is the biggest loser of this

:18:09.:18:15.

election result. Let me say this: The first time in American history

:18:16.:18:22.

and American president has set forth his view of the world, and it is a

:18:23.:18:30.

mercantile view of the world, who makes more money, who gets more

:18:31.:18:34.

trade, it doesn't look at the shared values, leadership and defends the

:18:35.:18:39.

world needs. The art of the deal has no application to America's

:18:40.:18:41.

leadership of the world, that's what we're learning. You can be a great

:18:42.:18:47.

businessman and make great real estate deals - whether he did not is

:18:48.:18:51.

debatable - but it has nothing to do with inspiring shared values from

:18:52.:18:56.

the West. You saying China may lose, because he may pressure them to

:18:57.:19:00.

reduce their trade deficit with the US. They may or may not. We may both

:19:01.:19:07.

lose. Right now, his Secretary of State has said, and I think he will

:19:08.:19:10.

walk this back when he is brief, that they will prevent the Chinese

:19:11.:19:15.

from entering these islands in the South China Sea. If they were to do

:19:16.:19:19.

that, it would be a blockade, and there would be a shooting war

:19:20.:19:23.

between the United States and China, so US - China relations are the most

:19:24.:19:28.

important bilateral relationship of the United States, and they don't

:19:29.:19:31.

lend themselves to the bluff and bluster that may have worked when

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you are trying to get a big building on second Ave in Manhattan. Is China

:19:37.:19:41.

the biggest loser? I think the Chinese have a lot to lose. Gigi and

:19:42.:19:57.

Ping was in Davos this week -- Xi Jin Ping was in Davos.

:19:58.:20:03.

Is Germany the second biggest loser in the sense that I understand he

:20:04.:20:09.

hasn't agreed time to see Angela Merkel yet, also that those close to

:20:10.:20:17.

him believe that Germany is guilty of currency manipulation by adopting

:20:18.:20:20.

a weak your row instead of the strong Deutschmark, and that that is

:20:21.:20:24.

why they are running a huge balance of payments surplus with the United

:20:25.:20:30.

States. American - German relations may not be great. There is a point

:20:31.:20:35.

of view throughout Europe. You only have to talk to the southern

:20:36.:20:39.

Europeans about this question. It seems like the euro has been aligned

:20:40.:20:43.

to benefit Germany. Joe Stiglitz, the famous left of centre Democrat

:20:44.:20:49.

economist, made the same case in a recent book. In this case, I think

:20:50.:20:56.

Germany will be put under the spotlight. Angela Merkel has shown

:20:57.:21:00.

herself to be the most respected and the most successful leader in

:21:01.:21:04.

herself to be the most respected and Europe. We who care about the West,

:21:05.:21:07.

who care about the shared values of the West, should pray and hope that

:21:08.:21:11.

she is re-elected. This isn't about dollars and cents. We're living in a

:21:12.:21:16.

time whether Russian leader has another country in Europe and for

:21:17.:21:21.

some inexplicable reason, the American president, who can use his

:21:22.:21:27.

insult diplomacy on everyone, including Mrs Merkel, the only

:21:28.:21:33.

person he can't seem to find anything to criticise about is Mr

:21:34.:21:37.

Putin. There are things more important than the actual details of

:21:38.:21:40.

your currency. There are things like preventing another war in Europe,

:21:41.:21:44.

preventing a war between the Chinese and the US. You talk about the

:21:45.:21:51.

Trident missile all morning, nuclear deterrence is extremely important.

:21:52.:21:55.

It doesn't lend itself to the bluff and bluster of a real estate deal. I

:21:56.:21:59.

understand all that, but the fact we are even talking about these things

:22:00.:22:03.

shows the new world we are moving into. I'd like to get you both to

:22:04.:22:08.

react to this. This is a man that ended the Bush Dynasty, a man that

:22:09.:22:16.

beat the Clinton machine. In his inauguration, not only did he not

:22:17.:22:19.

reach out to the Democrats, he didn't even mention the Republicans.

:22:20.:22:24.

These are changed days for us. They are, and change can be good or

:22:25.:22:28.

disastrous. I'm worried that it's easy in the world of diplomacy and

:22:29.:22:33.

in them -- for the leadership of the United States to break relationships

:22:34.:22:38.

and ruin alliances. These are things that were carefully nurtured. George

:22:39.:22:47.

Schultz, the American Secretary of State under Reagan talked about

:22:48.:22:51.

gardening, the slow, careful creation of a place with bilateral

:22:52.:22:56.

relationships that were blossoming and flowering multilateral

:22:57.:22:58.

relationships that take decades to create, and he will throw them away

:22:59.:23:02.

in a matter of days. The final word... I work for George Schultz.

:23:03.:23:08.

He was a Marine who stood up America, defended America, who would

:23:09.:23:12.

be in favour of many of the things that Donald Trump and the tramp

:23:13.:23:18.

Administration... Give him a call. His top aide macs that I've spoken

:23:19.:23:23.

to are appalled by Mr Trump's abdication of leadership. He is

:23:24.:23:27.

going to our radically -- he's going to eradicate extremist Islam from

:23:28.:23:35.

the face of the year. Is that realistic? I know people in the

:23:36.:23:38.

national security realm have worked on a plan. They say they will have

:23:39.:23:42.

such a plan in some detail within 90 days. Lets hope they succeed. We

:23:43.:23:51.

have run out of time. As a issues. Thank you, both. -- fascinating

:23:52.:23:52.

issues. So Theresa May promised a big speech

:23:53.:23:56.

on Brexit, and this week - perhaps against expectation -

:23:57.:23:59.

she delivered, trying to answer claims that the government didn't

:24:00.:24:01.

have a plan with an explicit wish-list of what she hopes to

:24:02.:24:04.

achieve in negotiations with the EU. To her allies it was ambitious,

:24:05.:24:07.

bold, optimistic - to her opponents it was full

:24:08.:24:09.

of contradictions There are speeches,

:24:10.:24:11.

and there are speeches. Like Theresa May's 12 principles

:24:12.:24:19.

for a Brexit deal leading to the UK fully out of the EU

:24:20.:24:23.

but still friendly in terms This agreement should allow

:24:24.:24:26.

for the freest possible trade in goods and services between

:24:27.:24:30.

Britain and the EU's member states. It should give British

:24:31.:24:32.

companies the maximum operate within European markets

:24:33.:24:38.

and let European businesses do She also said no deal would be

:24:39.:24:41.

better than the wrong deal, We want to test what people think

:24:42.:24:49.

about what she's just said. Do we have any of our

:24:50.:25:05.

future negotiating As the European Parliament

:25:06.:25:07.

voted for its new president, its chief

:25:08.:25:12.

negotiator sounded off. Saying, OK, if our European

:25:13.:25:20.

counterparts don't accept it, we're going to make

:25:21.:25:22.

from Britain a sort of free zone or tax haven,

:25:23.:25:25.

I The Prime Minister of Malta,

:25:26.:25:27.

the country that's assumed the EU's rotating presidency,

:25:28.:25:34.

spoke in sorrow and a bit of anger. We want a fair deal

:25:35.:25:37.

for the United Kingdom, but that deal necessarily needs to be

:25:38.:25:41.

inferior to membership. Next, let's hear

:25:42.:25:51.

from some enthusiastic leavers, like, I don't

:25:52.:25:54.

know, the Daily Mail? The paper lapped it up

:25:55.:25:59.

with this adoring front page. For Brexiteers, it was

:26:00.:26:02.

all manna from heaven. I think today means we are a big

:26:03.:26:06.

step closer to becoming an independent country again,

:26:07.:26:09.

with control of our own laws, I was chuckling at some of it,

:26:10.:26:11.

to be honest, because There were various phrases there

:26:12.:26:17.

which I've used myself again and Do we have any of those

:26:18.:26:21.

so-called Remoaners? There will, at the end

:26:22.:26:26.

of this deal process, so politicians get to vote

:26:27.:26:28.

on the stitch-up, but We take the view as

:26:29.:26:32.

Liberal Democrats that if this process started

:26:33.:26:35.

with democracy last June, We trusted the people

:26:36.:26:37.

with departure, we must trust them Do we have anyone from

:26:38.:26:41.

Labour, or are you all watching it in a small

:26:42.:26:48.

room somewhere? Throughout the speech, there seemed

:26:49.:26:49.

to be an implied threat that somewhere along the line,

:26:50.:26:57.

if all her optimism of a deal with the European Union didn't work,

:26:58.:27:00.

we would move into a low-tax, corporate taxation,

:27:01.:27:02.

bargain-basement economy on the I think she needs to be

:27:03.:27:04.

a bit clearer about what The Labour leader

:27:05.:27:08.

suggested he'd tell his MPs to vote in favour

:27:09.:27:15.

of starting a Brexit process if Parliament was given the choice,

:27:16.:27:18.

sparking a mini pre-revolt among Finally, do we have anyone

:27:19.:27:20.

from big business here? Of course, your all in Davos

:27:21.:27:26.

at the World Economic Clarity, first of all, really

:27:27.:27:35.

codified what many of us have been anticipating since

:27:36.:27:45.

the referendum result, particularly around

:27:46.:27:47.

the I think what we've also seen

:27:48.:27:48.

today is the Government's willingness to put a bit of edge

:27:49.:27:52.

into the negotiating dynamic, and I Trade negotiations are negotiations,

:27:53.:27:55.

and you have to lay out, and you have to be pretty tough

:27:56.:28:00.

to get what you want. Although some business people

:28:01.:28:02.

on the slopes speculated about moving some of their

:28:03.:28:04.

operations out of Brexit Britain. We saw there the instant reaction

:28:05.:28:07.

of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, but how will the party respond

:28:08.:28:25.

to the challenge posed by Brexit Well, I'm joined now by the Shadow

:28:26.:28:28.

Home Secretary, Diane Abbott. People know that Ukip and the Tories

:28:29.:28:37.

are for Brexit. The Lib Dems are four remain. What is Labour for? For

:28:38.:28:42.

respecting the result of the referendum. It was a 72% turnout,

:28:43.:28:48.

very high for an election of that nature, and we believe you have to

:28:49.:28:51.

respect that result. You couldn't have a situation where people like

:28:52.:28:55.

Tim Farron are saying to people, millions of people, sorry, you got

:28:56.:28:59.

it wrong, we in London no better. However, how the Tories go forward

:29:00.:29:04.

from here has to be subject to parliamentary scrutiny. Is it Shadow

:29:05.:29:10.

Cabinet policy to vote for the triggering of Article 50? Our policy

:29:11.:29:15.

is not to block Article 50. That is what the leader was saying this

:29:16.:29:22.

morning. So are you for it? Our policy is not to block it. You are

:29:23.:29:27.

talking about voting for it. We don't know what the Supreme Court is

:29:28.:29:33.

going to say, and we don't know what legislation Government will bring

:29:34.:29:35.

forward, and we don't know what amendment we will move, but we're

:29:36.:29:41.

clear that we will not vote to block it. OK, so you won't bow to stop it,

:29:42.:29:45.

but you could abstain? No, what we will do... Either you vote for or

:29:46.:29:53.

against all you abstain. There are too many unanswered questions. For

:29:54.:29:57.

instance, the position of EU migrants working and living in this

:29:58.:30:02.

country. You may not get the answer to that before Article 50 comes

:30:03.:30:06.

before the Commons, so what would you do then? We are giving to amend

:30:07.:30:11.

it. We can only tell you exactly how we will amend it when we understand

:30:12.:30:15.

what sort of legislation the Government is putting forward, and

:30:16.:30:19.

in the course of moving those amendments, we will ask the

:30:20.:30:23.

questions that the people of Britain whether they voted to leave remain

:30:24.:30:24.

want answered. When you come to a collective view,

:30:25.:30:35.

will there be a three line whip? I can't tell you, because we have not

:30:36.:30:39.

seen the government 's legislation. But when you see it, you will come

:30:40.:30:47.

to a collective view. Many regard this as extremely important. Will

:30:48.:30:51.

there be a three line whip on Labour's collective view? Because it

:30:52.:30:56.

is important, we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. When we see what the

:30:57.:31:01.

Supreme Court says, and crucially, when we see what the government

:31:02.:31:06.

position is, you will hear what the whipping is. Will shadow ministers

:31:07.:31:12.

be able to defy any three line whip on this? That is not normally the

:31:13.:31:18.

case. But they did on an early vote that the government introduced on

:31:19.:31:23.

Article 50. Those who voted against it are still there. In the Blair

:31:24.:31:28.

years, you certainly couldn't defy a three line whip. We will see what

:31:29.:31:33.

happens going forward. I remember when the Tories were hopelessly

:31:34.:31:39.

divided over the EU. All these Maastricht votes and an list

:31:40.:31:44.

arguments. Now it is Labour. Just another symptom of Mr Corbyn's poor

:31:45.:31:49.

leadership. Not at all. Two thirds voted to leave, a third to remain.

:31:50.:32:01.

We are seeking to bring the country and the party together. We will do

:32:02.:32:06.

that by pointing out how disastrous a Tory Brexit would be. Meanwhile,

:32:07.:32:16.

around 80 Labour MPs will defy a three line whip. It's too early to

:32:17.:32:22.

say that. Will you publish what you believe the negotiating goal should

:32:23.:32:27.

be? We are clear on it. We think that the economy, jobs and living

:32:28.:32:32.

standards should be the priority. What Theresa May is saying is that

:32:33.:32:37.

holding her party together is her priority. She is putting party above

:32:38.:32:42.

country. Does Labour think we should remain members of the single market?

:32:43.:32:48.

Ideally, in terms of jobs and the economy, of course. Ritt -ish

:32:49.:32:55.

business thinks that as well. Is Labour policy that we should remain

:32:56.:32:58.

a member of the single market? Labour leaves that jobs and the

:32:59.:33:02.

economy comes first, and if they come first, you would want to remain

:33:03.:33:09.

part of the single market. But to remain a member? Jobs and the

:33:10.:33:15.

economy comes first, and to do that, ideally, guess. So with that, comes

:33:16.:33:20.

free movement of people, the jurisdiction of the European, and a

:33:21.:33:24.

free movement of people, the multi-million never shipped thief.

:33:25.:33:30.

Is Labour prepared to pay that? Money is neither here nor there.

:33:31.:33:35.

Because the Tories will be asked to pay a lot of money... The EU has

:33:36.:33:41.

made it clear that you cannot pay a lot of money... The EU has

:33:42.:33:48.

have... I am asking for Labour's position. Our position is rooted in

:33:49.:33:54.

the reality, and the reality is that you cannot have the benefits of the

:33:55.:33:58.

member of the European Union, including being a member of the

:33:59.:34:02.

single market, without responsibility, including free

:34:03.:34:07.

movement of people. Free movement, is remaining under the jurisdiction

:34:08.:34:08.

of the European Court of Justice. Is is remaining under the jurisdiction

:34:09.:34:17.

that the Labour position? You've said that Labour wants to remain a

:34:18.:34:21.

member of the single market. That is the price tag that comes with it.

:34:22.:34:26.

Does Labour agree with paying that price tag? We are not pre-empting

:34:27.:34:32.

negotiation. Our goals are protect jobs and the British economy. Is it

:34:33.:34:37.

Labour's position that we remain a member of the customs union? Well,

:34:38.:34:46.

if we don't, I don't see how Theresa May can keep our promises and has

:34:47.:34:56.

unfettered access... You said Labour's position was clear. It is!

:34:57.:35:05.

It is clear that Theresa May... I am not asking about Theresa May. Is it

:35:06.:35:11.

Labour's position to remain a member of the customs union? It is Labour's

:35:12.:35:17.

position to do what is right for British industry. Depending on how

:35:18.:35:20.

the negotiations go, it may prove that coming out of the customs

:35:21.:35:25.

union, as Theresa May has indicated she wants to do, could prove

:35:26.:35:31.

catastrophic, and could actually destroy some of her promises. You do

:35:32.:35:37.

accept that if we are member of the customs union, we cannot do our own

:35:38.:35:44.

free trade deals? What free trade deals are you talking about? The

:35:45.:35:50.

ones that Labour might want to do in the future. First, we have to

:35:51.:35:54.

ones that Labour might want to do in protect British jobs and British

:35:55.:35:57.

industries. If you are talking about free trade deals with Donald Trump,

:35:58.:36:01.

the danger is that Theresa May will get drawn into a free-trade deal

:36:02.:36:07.

with America that will open up the NHS to American corporate... The

:36:08.:36:14.

cards are in Theresa May's hands. If she takes us out of the single

:36:15.:36:19.

market, if she takes us out of the customs union, we will have to deal

:36:20.:36:23.

with that. How big a crisis for Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour

:36:24.:36:26.

loses both by-elections in February. Jeremy Corbyn will be if Labour

:36:27.:36:32.

I don't believe we will lose both. But if he did? I am not anticipating

:36:33.:36:41.

that. Is Labour lost two seats in a midterm of a Tory government, would

:36:42.:36:45.

that be business as usual? I'm not prepared to see us lose those seats,

:36:46.:36:49.

so I will not talk about something that will not happen. Thank you.

:36:50.:36:52.

You're watching the Sunday Politics.

:36:53.:36:54.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:36:55.:37:05.

Scotland's Brexit Minister, Michael Russell, tells us SNP MPs

:37:06.:37:12.

will vote against triggering Article 50, no matter how it's amended.

:37:13.:37:15.

How concerned are Scotland's importers about Brexit?

:37:16.:37:23.

We have got to trust our negotiators at the end of the day. I'm sure they

:37:24.:37:29.

are doing their very best for Britain.

:37:30.:37:29.

And did Theresa May choose politics over economics when she set

:37:30.:37:32.

This week, the Supreme Court will deliver its verdict over

:37:33.:37:38.

whether MPs should have a vote over the triggering of Article 50.

:37:39.:37:41.

But Scotland's Brexit Minister says SNP MPs would vote against any bill.

:37:42.:37:45.

Before we came on air, I spoke to Michael Russell

:37:46.:37:47.

We can talk about Brexit in a minute, but Theresa May has just

:37:48.:38:04.

been on the Andrew Marr programme and she refused to say whether she

:38:05.:38:09.

knew about this alleged Trident missile misfiring at the time the

:38:10.:38:14.

renewal of Trident was debated in Parliament last year. Is that

:38:15.:38:20.

acceptable? It is unacceptable. Trident is a very serious issue, an

:38:21.:38:26.

issue where there needs to be transparency. If people had knowing

:38:27.:38:30.

what had happened they would, at the very least, have asked some

:38:31.:38:36.

questions. This is wrong and using secrecy to overcome democratic

:38:37.:38:41.

scrutiny. What will the SNP group in Parliament do about this? My

:38:42.:38:46.

colleagues will want to pursue this very firmly. They will want to find

:38:47.:38:53.

out when the Government knew, what the new, and why they did not give

:38:54.:38:56.

that information in the House of Commons. Theresa May does not want

:38:57.:39:02.

the House of Commons to be involved in any scrutiny, which is wrong and

:39:03.:39:06.

needs to be overcome. You will see vigorous action by the SNP. There

:39:07.:39:13.

are reports this morning found New Cross Parliamentary group at

:39:14.:39:16.

Westminster which, should the Supreme Court decides there will

:39:17.:39:23.

have to be bought in Article 50, the triggering off it, they plan to

:39:24.:39:27.

Britain amendments to soften some of the things that Theresa May said in

:39:28.:39:32.

her speech last week. Is that something be SNP supports? Had he

:39:33.:39:37.

been involved in these talks? I think the SNP MPs had been involved

:39:38.:39:44.

in many talks, but it will also be bringing Ford amendments. Whether it

:39:45.:39:48.

is part of that process are complementary to it remains to be

:39:49.:39:53.

seen. All bills can be amended. The difference in position is what

:39:54.:39:56.

happens at the end of the day when the bill is voted on and in the

:39:57.:40:01.

present circumstances I don't think there is any possibility of the SNP

:40:02.:40:10.

MPs supporting Article 50. If there is a legislative consent motion in

:40:11.:40:13.

the Scottish Parliament, as I presumed will be, we will be voting

:40:14.:40:18.

against that process. It does in Article 50 is not just endorsing the

:40:19.:40:22.

vote in the United Kingdom, the vote in Scotland was very different, it

:40:23.:40:26.

is endorsing the position that Theresa May has taken on Brexit and

:40:27.:40:31.

endorsing the type of country that she wants. She wants an isolationist

:40:32.:40:35.

country, one that is in Word looking, and one that is rejecting

:40:36.:40:40.

the benefits of migration. That is not the country any of us want

:40:41.:40:45.

Scotland to be. That is the strongest reason for rejecting it.

:40:46.:40:50.

Will the SNP vote against triggering article 15 or matter how it is

:40:51.:40:58.

amended? Absolutely. I cannot conceive of circumstances where we

:40:59.:40:59.

would support the triggering conceive of circumstances where we

:41:00.:41:04.

Article 50. It takes this issue forward in an unacceptable way and

:41:05.:41:09.

takes the type of Brexit forwarded an unacceptable way and it declares

:41:10.:41:13.

the type of country that Theresa May once this country to be, and that is

:41:14.:41:18.

not the country that me or my colleagues or Scotland wants to be.

:41:19.:41:26.

There was a meeting you were at this week, a group are going to study the

:41:27.:41:30.

proposals in your paper on Brexit. Have you been given any reason to

:41:31.:41:35.

believe that the British Government will adopt the proposal you put

:41:36.:41:43.

forward in that paper? The first of the proposals in the paper has been

:41:44.:41:47.

rejected by the Prime Minister without consultation or discussion.

:41:48.:41:50.

Not only did she say so two days before the Committee met, there was

:41:51.:41:58.

no paper on Thursday saying that this was what the Prime Minister had

:41:59.:42:02.

decided and five. There was an agreement on Thursday to look at the

:42:03.:42:06.

other proposals, the proposals to do with Scotland remaining and the

:42:07.:42:10.

single market and on the customs union and on further devolution.

:42:11.:42:16.

They can look at those in detail and they are perfectly achievable. They

:42:17.:42:21.

will be hard, but they are achievable. That is the position we

:42:22.:42:26.

are now in. There was a feeling of frustration for the devolved

:42:27.:42:29.

administrations on Thursday because we were faced with decisions made

:42:30.:42:35.

outside the Committee, no respect for the Committee at the devolved

:42:36.:42:38.

institutions, and the reasons given. We still have not seen the workings

:42:39.:42:41.

that Theresa May used to say we should not be in the single market.

:42:42.:42:47.

When you said after the meeting that the clock is ticking, what did you

:42:48.:42:53.

mean? The clock is ticking on the process we are engaged in because

:42:54.:43:00.

that has got to be real, there has to be a work programme that makes

:43:01.:43:04.

sense. The clock is also taking in terms of an independence referendum

:43:05.:43:09.

because there is an alternative to the present situation. We really

:43:10.:43:15.

want to try and get a negotiated solution, we put everything into

:43:16.:43:21.

that, but it does not appear that is being paid any respect or given any

:43:22.:43:26.

consideration, because this is a very well worked out series of

:43:27.:43:31.

proposals. The clock is ticking and this is not a process that will last

:43:32.:43:36.

forever. Article 50 is meant to be triggered by the end of March, but

:43:37.:43:40.

we have not seen a scrap of paper to see what will be in this letter, we

:43:41.:43:45.

have not seen the working that has gone into that, and we have not been

:43:46.:43:49.

consulted despite reference to joint ministerial Committee. Supporters of

:43:50.:43:59.

Theresa May and her Government has said saying that the clock is

:44:00.:44:03.

ticking and continuing to threaten an independence referendum does not

:44:04.:44:07.

mean anything. We can read the polling figures as well as you can

:44:08.:44:12.

and we know that is not a majority in Scotland for independence, with

:44:13.:44:15.

even less support for another independence referendum. All your

:44:16.:44:20.

talk of clocks ticking and the threat of another referendum does

:44:21.:44:24.

not put any pressure on us, they would say. How would you reply to

:44:25.:44:30.

that? There is no threat to be made. We said at the beginning of this

:44:31.:44:33.

process there were a series of options that needed to be considered

:44:34.:44:38.

and went through this carefully. We also said there was a democratic

:44:39.:44:43.

mandate to hold another referendum if we were taken out of Europe

:44:44.:44:48.

against our well. My point is, given the way that the polling figures

:44:49.:44:51.

are, it does not look like it is wanted. I don't think there is any

:44:52.:44:57.

doubt that a campaign focused on the type of country we want to live and

:44:58.:45:02.

would be a very effective campaign indeed. If you look at where the

:45:03.:45:07.

polls were at the start of the campaign for the 2014 referendum and

:45:08.:45:10.

where they ended up, the possibility of significant progress absolutely

:45:11.:45:17.

exists. We're looking at the options carefully one by one and we are this

:45:18.:45:22.

in a rational way and unlike the UK Government. It is possible to move

:45:23.:45:28.

forward on a well worked out compromise position and that is

:45:29.:45:33.

still on the table. There are no threats being made, we are working

:45:34.:45:37.

our way through a logical set of options. I wish the people that we

:45:38.:45:44.

are negotiating with were as logical as we are. You said in the paper you

:45:45.:45:48.

produced that you seem to accept that should your idea of Scotland

:45:49.:45:52.

joining the European Union free-trade area and staying in the

:45:53.:45:57.

single market, that to get anywhere with that you would need the

:45:58.:46:01.

sponsorship of the British Government. Have you formally as the

:46:02.:46:05.

British Government to sponsor that? It is in the paper... Have you as

:46:06.:46:14.

the? Should the UK Government agree that there should be in the

:46:15.:46:19.

negotiating position for Article 50, they would be expected to do that

:46:20.:46:23.

and at the appropriate minute we will see that needs to go in the

:46:24.:46:27.

letter. There is another way to do that which is to give the Scottish

:46:28.:46:33.

Parliament the powers, the treaty powers, for its devolved areas and

:46:34.:46:38.

to give a legal personality. That is what happened in Belgium with the

:46:39.:46:43.

devolved parliaments there. There are options within this paper. As of

:46:44.:46:51.

now, the British Government has given you no indication that it

:46:52.:46:55.

would either sponsor Scotland's in doing this, which would mean the

:46:56.:47:01.

British Government would have to negotiate with the other 27 members

:47:02.:47:05.

of the European Union over this, nor have they given you any indication

:47:06.:47:09.

that they would give you the legislative power to do it yourself.

:47:10.:47:16.

Is that correct? As of now, we are in the joint process of examining

:47:17.:47:23.

the process in the paper. It is being considered by officials on

:47:24.:47:27.

both sides with the involvement of ministers. That is the position we

:47:28.:47:31.

are in and that is the position that we want to lead, but in the Article

:47:32.:47:36.

50 letter there will be a section that says this is what we want to

:47:37.:47:41.

see happen with Scotland, we will undergo shapeless, and we will

:47:42.:47:45.

support the United Kingdom Government in negotiating that

:47:46.:47:49.

position if they decide to put that in the article 15 letter. But they

:47:50.:47:52.

have not said they will support this? This paper is being debated

:47:53.:47:59.

and discussed. We will support the United Kingdom Government of

:48:00.:48:02.

drafting that section of the Article 50 letter and on the negotiations on

:48:03.:48:06.

choose a degree that should happen. choose a degree that should happen.

:48:07.:48:13.

-- if they choose to agree. The other devolved administrations know

:48:14.:48:16.

how important this servers and Northern Ireland the situation is

:48:17.:48:22.

more serious. 15% of Scotland's exports go to the European Union,

:48:23.:48:28.

compared to over 60% to the rest of the United Kingdom. Can we take it

:48:29.:48:34.

that if you do have another referendum campaign, that you will

:48:35.:48:37.

propose as single market with the UK? Of course, because we have

:48:38.:48:44.

proposed that before. We said that we did not expect there to be any

:48:45.:48:50.

interruption in trade. You can look at this to the other end of the

:48:51.:48:54.

telescope and say that is what the rest of the United Kingdom is saying

:48:55.:48:59.

about the EU and its continuing arrangements. We want to continue to

:49:00.:49:04.

trade. Anyone who says there is an either or is malicious or mistaken.

:49:05.:49:11.

ICU yacht is waiting to take you away so we better leave it there.

:49:12.:49:17.

Thank you. I'm afraid not, but thank you.

:49:18.:49:23.

The Prime Minister this week confirmed what most of us

:49:24.:49:25.

Britain will leave the European single market.

:49:26.:49:28.

Theresa May promised to push instead for the "freest possible trade"

:49:29.:49:30.

with Europe but reaching a deal before we leave seems,

:49:31.:49:33.

at this stage, well, at the very least debatable.

:49:34.:49:35.

In the meantime, our imports and exports could be

:49:36.:49:37.

Graham Stewart's been finding out how that might affect Scotland's

:49:38.:49:40.

We have here, Graham, wines from Bordeaux on the left-hand side. At a

:49:41.:49:53.

wine importers of Livingston, free trade with Europe is essential to

:49:54.:50:00.

their business. And these ones here? You are a man of expensive taste but

:50:01.:50:06.

quality. This is from 2006, very good vintage. Whether it is a fine

:50:07.:50:11.

claret or a cheeky Chardonnay, Brexit will not end our love affair

:50:12.:50:13.

with fine wines, but the future does Brexit will not end our love affair

:50:14.:50:19.

not look so rosy. The wine trade has survived the Reformation, the union

:50:20.:50:24.

of Parliament and during the Jacobite area, nationals took to

:50:25.:50:29.

claret as a portion to report as a sign of their independence. But how

:50:30.:50:32.

will the wine trade survived Brexit? The immediate impact was on the

:50:33.:50:38.

foreign exchange, we import all of our products from abroad, both

:50:39.:50:41.

within the European Community or from out with, Australia, South

:50:42.:50:50.

America, South Africa... There was a 20% drop in foreign exchange for 20%

:50:51.:50:57.

increase in our costs. And that this before Brexit has even happened. The

:50:58.:51:00.

Prime Minister last week was optimistic that Britain can strike a

:51:01.:51:04.

new free trade deal with Europe, but all the signs so far suggest

:51:05.:51:09.

European leaders are unwilling to start negotiating a deal until after

:51:10.:51:14.

we leave. So how long do trade negotiations normally take? The

:51:15.:51:19.

answer is there is no normal. The US and the EU started to put together a

:51:20.:51:23.

deal and said they would do it within 18 months. We are still

:51:24.:51:27.

trying to negotiate that and it may die with Mr Trump coming to power,

:51:28.:51:32.

but that is still going on for years later. Quite a few negotiations... I

:51:33.:51:37.

have known negotiations that have been going for ten years and have

:51:38.:51:42.

not been completed. In the intron, Britain might have to operate under

:51:43.:51:45.

the rules of the World Trade Organisation and that would mean

:51:46.:51:48.

tariffs on imports and exports, which would impose costs on our

:51:49.:51:54.

industries. There are wide range of tariffs, some are zero, a lot of

:51:55.:52:00.

trade is zero. But others are quite high, from motor cars, for example,

:52:01.:52:06.

the tariff is 10%, that adds 10% onto the price. There are other

:52:07.:52:10.

areas where it is even higher, particularly for food. Forlan, for

:52:11.:52:15.

example, there is a percentage tariff of 12.8% and then on top that

:52:16.:52:29.

you is a 1700 euros export that has been paid to get the lamb into the

:52:30.:52:32.

EU offer the EU to get Islam into the UK. That has set off alarm bells

:52:33.:52:35.

in Scotland's food and rent industries that are worried about

:52:36.:52:38.

becoming a bargaining chip in any trade negotiations. In Scotland we

:52:39.:52:44.

represent 19% of all manufacturing jobs and another ?14 million to the

:52:45.:52:48.

economy. That is enormously important to the economy of Scotland

:52:49.:52:52.

and our concern is that if food and drink is not privatised in those

:52:53.:52:55.

negotiations, huge and important jobs will be lost. -- is not

:52:56.:53:03.

prioritised. And at Scotland's oldest delicatessen, it might in

:53:04.:53:06.

future cost more to buy your favourite Italian cheese. But as a

:53:07.:53:11.

company, they are not using the head just yet. We must trust our

:53:12.:53:16.

negotiators at the end of the day and I am sure they are doing their

:53:17.:53:24.

very best for Britain. I also guess that we still are in the EEC for the

:53:25.:53:30.

next two years until we are out. So life must continue. So there does

:53:31.:53:36.

not worry about it, let us think about it and hopefully influence,

:53:37.:53:39.

but we have two years to go yet. Still, that does not give the

:53:40.:53:43.

Britain much time to find experienced negotiators who know

:53:44.:53:48.

their onions, but if the civil service is looking for

:53:49.:53:51.

inspiration... There is a man in the White House who is good at making

:53:52.:53:53.

deals. Now, before her speech this week,

:53:54.:53:56.

all we really knew about the UK Government's plans for Brexit

:53:57.:54:00.

were that it means Brexit. Then this week we got a glimpse of

:54:01.:54:02.

what Theresa May's plans might be... It was a vote to restore as we see

:54:03.:54:13.

it our parliamentary democracy, national survey termination and to

:54:14.:54:18.

become even more global and internationalist in action and in

:54:19.:54:23.

spirit. And that is why we seek a new and equal partnership between an

:54:24.:54:27.

independent self-governing global Britain and our friends and allies

:54:28.:54:29.

in the EU. But the Prime Minister's speech has

:54:30.:54:31.

led some commentators to conclude that Theresa May has favoured

:54:32.:54:33.

the political argument With me to discuss this,

:54:34.:54:35.

in Edinburgh, is Christina Boswell, who's Professor of Politics

:54:36.:54:39.

at the University of Edinburgh, and in our Dundee studio

:54:40.:54:41.

is Brad MacKay, Professor of Strategic Management

:54:42.:54:43.

at the University of St Andrews. Christina Boswell, you think that

:54:44.:54:55.

politics are winning on this, do you? It is always politics, isn't

:54:56.:55:00.

it? We are used to the idea that the economy is a very salient issue for

:55:01.:55:04.

voters, so they typically put the economy at the top of the robust

:55:05.:55:08.

when deciding what position to support. In this case, Theresa May

:55:09.:55:13.

had all made a calculation that economics is not such a salient

:55:14.:55:24.

issue in regard to Brexit and you must remember that the economic

:55:25.:55:26.

prognosis about the effect of Brexit on the UK economy are fairly complex

:55:27.:55:29.

and abstract. It is not immediately clear to many voters how leaving the

:55:30.:55:32.

EU will affect them economically and I think also people are quite wary

:55:33.:55:36.

about different economic forecasts, they are not necessarily trusting,

:55:37.:55:39.

they do not find incredible because they have been politicised, people

:55:40.:55:43.

see them as partisan claims supporting different positions and I

:55:44.:55:46.

think finally, there is another issue around the economy, which is

:55:47.:55:49.

that the type of national indicators that we typically used to measure

:55:50.:55:53.

economic performance do not necessarily resonate with people's

:55:54.:55:58.

experience at the moment. We are told GDP is rising and that

:55:59.:56:01.

employment figures are strong and rising, but that does not

:56:02.:56:04.

necessarily correspond to how people feel in their lives. Into the vacuum

:56:05.:56:09.

then steps these more emotive and perhaps more compelling arguments

:56:10.:56:16.

about identity, immigration. Brad MacKay, Theresa May would tell you

:56:17.:56:19.

she is not putting politics ahead of economics, she has an economic plan.

:56:20.:56:25.

There is an economic plan, that is the certainly come out of the single

:56:26.:56:27.

market and possibly come out of the certainly come out of the single

:56:28.:56:31.

customs union and then to launch on this global strategy of striking

:56:32.:56:35.

deals across the world. One of the issues and Christina has touched on

:56:36.:56:38.

it is that there are lot of contradictions that exist and are

:56:39.:56:46.

being brought about by taking a more political line or putting political

:56:47.:56:48.

issues at the forefront of the government's strategy.

:56:49.:56:52.

issues at the forefront of the economists say trade is one area of

:56:53.:56:54.

economics that is pretty straight forward and if you leave the

:56:55.:57:00.

European Union, it will harm Britain's trade, not just with the

:57:01.:57:03.

European Union but the rest of the world. Did you agree with that or do

:57:04.:57:06.

you think there is a possibility that we could do some of the very

:57:07.:57:09.

successful deals that Theresa May would like to do? I think that the

:57:10.:57:14.

government has set out a very ambitious strategy and as a said

:57:15.:57:19.

before, there are a lot of different contradictions. For example, coming

:57:20.:57:24.

out of the single market, certainly coming out of the customs union and

:57:25.:57:27.

then trying to replicate that on either a sectorial basis on in its

:57:28.:57:32.

entirety but without some of those political issues that will be

:57:33.:57:35.

important for the European Union, like the movement of free people and

:57:36.:57:40.

coming under the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice. The

:57:41.:57:43.

challenge that the UK has, which also present another contradiction,

:57:44.:57:47.

is that at the moment the UK is trying to embark on a global

:57:48.:57:52.

strategy when the forces of protectionism are coming to the

:57:53.:57:54.

fore. So it will be very challenging. And trying to replicate

:57:55.:58:01.

even some of the, what the UK currently has in terms of access to

:58:02.:58:04.

the single market in terms of the sectorial basis, that may indeed

:58:05.:58:08.

come into conflict with some of the world trade organisation rules. So

:58:09.:58:12.

there are all kinds of different contradictions that exist within the

:58:13.:58:15.

correct strategy that would have to be reconciled before the UK would be

:58:16.:58:19.

able to negotiate what would be a set of very complex deals that would

:58:20.:58:22.

leave it better off and I think most economists would agree that because

:58:23.:58:26.

the UK is seen very much as a gateway by a lot of foreign

:58:27.:58:31.

investors into the EU, it is going to be a very tall order indeed to

:58:32.:58:36.

try and achieve that. The other side of that, Christina Boswell is, of

:58:37.:58:40.

course, at least we're not really seeing any bad economic effects of

:58:41.:58:41.

leaving. I take the point that we seeing any bad economic effects of

:58:42.:58:48.

have not done it yet, but when the governor of the Bank of England is

:58:49.:58:51.

telling us that the main threat to short-term financial stability in

:58:52.:58:53.

the UK is no longer Brexit, that must mean something. Yes, but how

:58:54.:58:58.

this plays out politically for Theresa May in the next months and

:58:59.:59:01.

years will depend on a number of things and one of those is the

:59:02.:59:06.

economic indicators and how Brexit is affecting the economy as

:59:07.:59:10.

decisions are made and as the negotiation outcome becomes clearer.

:59:11.:59:15.

We have also got to bear in mind that there are other factors which

:59:16.:59:18.

could play quite negatively for Theresa May. For example, if it

:59:19.:59:24.

looks like the negotiation process will be protracted, it will be very

:59:25.:59:28.

difficult if the EU is very intransigent in its negotiation

:59:29.:59:32.

position. But also a lot is riding on the government's ability to

:59:33.:59:39.

restrict immigration and I am not that confident that the government

:59:40.:59:43.

will be able to do so, it has not managed to restrict non-EU

:59:44.:59:46.

immigration since 2010. I do not think it will fare much better in

:59:47.:59:49.

restricting EU immigration, so I think there could be a lot of

:59:50.:59:52.

disappointed voters out there. What do you think the Scottish Government

:59:53.:59:57.

should do? Two possible strategies, one is to say, look, this is what we

:59:58.:00:03.

want, if we do not get it, we will have another independence

:00:04.:00:06.

referendum. Arguably there is another price which is that a whole

:00:07.:00:11.

lot of powers are going to be devolved probably because when you

:00:12.:00:14.

leave the European Union they could see, for example, we want limited

:00:15.:00:17.

powers over immigration. There was see, for example, we want limited

:00:18.:00:20.

video that was done with Jack McConnell many years ago, if you

:00:21.:00:24.

remember, on students. Things like that that could give them a bit more

:00:25.:00:27.

flexibility. I think that is correct. The Lewis Cook for some

:00:28.:00:32.

leverage there. In the speech of Theresa May on Tuesday she spoke

:00:33.:00:36.

about the repatriation of powers, as it is called, and she made in north

:00:37.:00:40.

to the idea that it might make sense for some of those Paris to come back

:00:41.:00:44.

to the devolved administrations and others to go back to Westminster. So

:00:45.:00:48.

she seems to be signalling some flexibility there, however it does

:00:49.:00:52.

not go anywhere near the type of proposals put forward by Nicola

:00:53.:00:58.

Sturgeon just before Christmas, which was aiming towards a fully

:00:59.:01:02.

differentiated approach with Scotland retaining access to the

:01:03.:01:08.

single market. In terms of the SNP's negotiating position as it were, I

:01:09.:01:12.

think that the Lions have really hard and through this set of

:01:13.:01:17.

proposals that were advanced before Christmas and now Theresa May's

:01:18.:01:21.

speech. It will be very difficult, I think, to pull back from those hard

:01:22.:01:25.

divisions which have become crystallised now. It is very

:01:26.:01:30.

difficult to envisage avoiding a second referendum on Scottish

:01:31.:01:34.

independence, I think. What do you think about that, Brad MacKay? It

:01:35.:01:38.

might be wrong in this, but I think one of the argument that was put

:01:39.:01:44.

forward in the past about devolving the EFTA was because it was

:01:45.:01:47.

earmarked for paying into the European Union, you could not have

:01:48.:01:50.

different VAT rates around the UK. But as long as we're not in the EU,

:01:51.:01:54.

the Scottish Government can say they can have control of VAT, thank you

:01:55.:01:59.

very much. -- VAT. I think there is a lot of scope for devolving a lot

:02:00.:02:04.

more powers to the Scottish Government. If you look at something

:02:05.:02:09.

like even immigration and you take the example of Canada and Quebec.

:02:10.:02:13.

Quebec has a customised deal as a province in Canada with the Canadian

:02:14.:02:16.

federal government to have a lot more control over that. So I think

:02:17.:02:20.

there is a lot of scope in being able to do that. I think we're some

:02:21.:02:25.

of the challenges for the Scottish Government come in are that the

:02:26.:02:28.

reality is that Scotland's economy is a very highly integrated thing

:02:29.:02:34.

with the rest of the UK. Somewhere between 60% and 70% of Scottish

:02:35.:02:38.

exports actually go to the rest of the UK, only about 15% would go to

:02:39.:02:42.

the European Union. I think there are some areas where powers could be

:02:43.:02:45.

devolved to the Scottish Government, which would allow the Scottish

:02:46.:02:49.

Government to tailor various policies to the needs of Scotland

:02:50.:02:53.

and immigration would potentially be one of them. I think when it comes

:02:54.:02:58.

to trying to negotiate some sort of halfway house between a single

:02:59.:03:02.

market in the UK and the single market in Europe, that presents a

:03:03.:03:06.

whole lot of challenges that will be difficult to overcome. Christina

:03:07.:03:09.

Boswell, briefly on immigration, you said a minute ago it could be very

:03:10.:03:12.

difficult for the British government to control immigration to the extent

:03:13.:03:19.

that they would like, even if they get powers over immigration back,

:03:20.:03:21.

which they would by beating the EU, is that a potential pitfall with

:03:22.:03:29.

Brexit if it does not deliver the thing that many people voted for

:03:30.:03:30.

Brexit if it does not deliver the Brexit in order to achieve? I think

:03:31.:03:35.

it could be a potential pitfall but a lot depends upon how the

:03:36.:03:39.

government manages to shape the narrative and every listen to the

:03:40.:03:42.

language being used by Theresa May at the moment, she does not talk

:03:43.:03:45.

about ridges, she does not talk about bring down, she talks about

:03:46.:03:49.

control, controlling emigration... about bring down, she talks about

:03:50.:03:53.

And again. I am thinking, we are seeing a subtle shift away from the

:03:54.:03:59.

language around reducing net migration towards controlling and

:04:00.:04:02.

that is a narrative around selectivity, the brightest and best,

:04:03.:04:04.

selecting those immigrants that will selectivity, the brightest and best,

:04:05.:04:08.

be beneficial towards our economy. I suspect you want to shape the

:04:09.:04:12.

narrative like that, that it is not uncontrolled immigration for anyone

:04:13.:04:15.

who wants to come here but controlled immigration, possibly

:04:16.:04:18.

similar numbers, but of those who reselect the benefit our economy.

:04:19.:04:22.

Christina Boswell and Brad MacKay, thank you both very much indeed.

:04:23.:04:25.

Time now to look at the stories from the week gone by and those

:04:26.:04:28.

With me this week are Caron Lindsay, editor of Liberal Democrat Voice,

:04:29.:04:34.

and the SNP's former head of communications turned

:04:35.:04:36.

communications consultant, Kevin Pringle.

:04:37.:04:42.

Kevin, you were there during the last independence referendum. If you

:04:43.:04:53.

were still there, what would you say to the Scottish Government? Would

:04:54.:04:55.

you say go for a referendum next year or would you tell them to wait?

:04:56.:05:02.

I think another referendum is increasingly likely and I think it

:05:03.:05:07.

is unavoidable. In terms of the result of the European referendum,

:05:08.:05:11.

it was such a deferential result across the UK, the fact it was

:05:12.:05:15.

included in the SNP manifesto last year... Would you still go for it?

:05:16.:05:26.

Yes, for two reasons. They polls are around pretty work in 2014, but to

:05:27.:05:33.

begin at 45% is different from 2014 when we began... The counter to that

:05:34.:05:40.

is to say that at the beginning of 2014 a lot of people had not

:05:41.:05:46.

decided. It is more polarised now. I think it is more polarised but it is

:05:47.:05:51.

also more fluid than people think. There has been a shift in both

:05:52.:05:56.

directions, some have gone from no two yes, some have gone from yes to

:05:57.:06:02.

no. I think it will be much easier to get people who have gone from yes

:06:03.:06:08.

to no back again, and even if that is all that happens the referendum

:06:09.:06:17.

result would be yes. The framing of the referendum in a post-Brexit

:06:18.:06:21.

situation... What Nicola Sturgeon would like to do is say that the

:06:22.:06:27.

referendum is not about Brexit at about putting Brexit in the wider

:06:28.:06:36.

context of the Democratic... The point Kenny MacAskill has been

:06:37.:06:42.

making is that a lot of SNP yes voters, whether they were SNP voters

:06:43.:06:46.

are not, voted to leave the European Union. He argues that there should

:06:47.:06:51.

not be another referendum but also that when there is one it should not

:06:52.:06:55.

be a bit Europe because you have to win over previous yes photos he

:06:56.:07:02.

voted to leave Europe. I think that will be possible because Brexit is

:07:03.:07:05.

an extreme example of democratic deficit. Since 2010 there has been a

:07:06.:07:12.

UK Government supported by only one member of Parliament in Scotland.

:07:13.:07:13.

UK Government supported by only one The equivalent would be for Scotland

:07:14.:07:18.

to be governed by a country that only had nine MPs. That is the

:07:19.:07:25.

result of an election system you do not support. It is only because of

:07:26.:07:32.

first past the post their SNP has got so many. It is the reality that

:07:33.:07:37.

Scotland finds itself in. It is fertile territory to deliver a yes

:07:38.:07:43.

vote. These reports this morning that Liberal Democrats among others

:07:44.:07:48.

by looking at putting amendment should the Supreme Court decide

:07:49.:07:51.

there will have to be legislation on Article 50. That is something you

:07:52.:07:57.

think may show some promise or a do you think the Conservatives will

:07:58.:08:01.

just dismantle the? I don't think the ad server to Tory nationalism is

:08:02.:08:07.

SNP national of them. I think the SNP and the Liberal Democrats and

:08:08.:08:11.

other people in Parliament should be working together to secure a

:08:12.:08:14.

referendum on the Brexit deal, because I think that is the best way

:08:15.:08:19.

of making sure the whole UK stays in the single market. What do you think

:08:20.:08:27.

of Michael Russell's tactic that we will put forward lots of amendments

:08:28.:08:30.

to the bill but we will vote against it anyway? We need to see how it

:08:31.:08:37.

shapes up. That is an odd way to proceed. We can see what happens in

:08:38.:08:42.

the House of Commons but I think the reality is that these amendment is

:08:43.:08:48.

unlikely to be successful. That is a strong Democratic position for the

:08:49.:08:55.

SNP MPs to base their caisson. Can they completely rejected? It is not

:08:56.:09:01.

impossible that enough Conservatives might vote for these amendments. The

:09:02.:09:08.

majority of Conservative MPs were first staying in the European Union.

:09:09.:09:12.

The problem is you have to see what the Labour Party do. They are not

:09:13.:09:18.

providing any opposition whatsoever. They are just saying they will vote

:09:19.:09:25.

for Article 50 whatever, which is wrong. If people were working

:09:26.:09:28.

together we could really make some changes. Labour are not here to

:09:29.:09:35.

defend themselves, but I think they would say calling for another

:09:36.:09:41.

referendum on the outcome of negotiations is ignoring the

:09:42.:09:45.

referendum result. You criticise the SNP for ignoring the result of the

:09:46.:09:49.

independence referendum, but you're doing the same of the Brexit

:09:50.:09:52.

referendum. We had no idea what Brexit would look like. How is that

:09:53.:10:00.

different from the SNP saying that they had no idea Scotland would vote

:10:01.:10:01.

different from the SNP saying that to stay in the EU and the rest of

:10:02.:10:05.

the UK wouldn't. You respect the result or you do not stop you

:10:06.:10:11.

respect the vote for a departure but people did not vote for the

:10:12.:10:17.

destination. But Scotland voted... That is the same as the SNP saying

:10:18.:10:22.

that Scotland voted to stay in the UK but we did not know that would be

:10:23.:10:26.

a European referendum in Scotland. Therefore that invalidates the

:10:27.:10:31.

outcome of the referendum. You cannot accuse the SNP for not

:10:32.:10:35.

telling us what independence would look like. We did not have that in

:10:36.:10:42.

the league campaign. Theresa May has chosen the most extreme version of

:10:43.:10:48.

Brexit on a very slim majority. I think people need to have a vote on

:10:49.:10:55.

what Brexit looks like. The SNP are saying that we might have another

:10:56.:11:01.

independence referendum, that is one thing, but it is another thing to

:11:02.:11:05.

say there should be a referendum across the UK on the results of the

:11:06.:11:10.

negotiation. I don't know what view the SNP would take on that, but the

:11:11.:11:16.

difference between the independence referendum, where the definition of

:11:17.:11:18.

what an independent Scotland would look like in that 600 page document

:11:19.:11:26.

that everyone had available, that was provided before the referendum.

:11:27.:11:29.

that everyone had available, that All the definition of what Brexit is

:11:30.:11:32.

good to look like him and after the vote, so there is a case to consider

:11:33.:11:39.

the issue of another referendum on the grounds that none of the

:11:40.:11:46.

definition was there. Many leading leave campaigners said explicitly

:11:47.:11:49.

that voting to leave was not about leaving the single European market.

:11:50.:11:55.

One who had pursued Brexit for decades made a point of saying the

:11:56.:12:02.

UK would stay in the single European market, the opposite of what is

:12:03.:12:05.

happening. When the opposite of what was said would happen is actually

:12:06.:12:11.

about to come about there is a case to consider that. With no additional

:12:12.:12:19.

spectre Dan, just because he said... Many people said that. Leaving the

:12:20.:12:25.

European Union is not about leaving the single market. If you look at

:12:26.:12:29.

the Tory manifesto for 2015, they said they were in terms -- they were

:12:30.:12:34.

in favour of remaining in the single market. We have heard from Theresa

:12:35.:12:40.

May that this is not the case. Then you come into the issue that that is

:12:41.:12:47.

the ground upon which the SNP have chosen to rest the bulk of their

:12:48.:12:51.

case, that Scotland should remain in the single market and the same is

:12:52.:12:56.

true for Northern Ireland. That should be taken into account. We

:12:57.:13:01.

cannot end this programme about giving you a chance to tell us how

:13:02.:13:08.

much admired Donald Trump. There is a cause for optimism. The marchers

:13:09.:13:14.

we saw yesterday, I think that will bring people who've never been

:13:15.:13:19.

involved in politics into trying to get a stake in the future, to try

:13:20.:13:25.

and fight against what he is doing. We have seen how he has torn up all

:13:26.:13:32.

the stuff on Obama care, health care, climate change... A quick

:13:33.:13:39.

comment on Donald Trump. What do you think of what he is done? It has all

:13:40.:13:44.

been about Donald Trump. I think it might be a mistake for a Theresa May

:13:45.:13:51.

to go there because it is still very raw and controversial. We need to

:13:52.:13:54.

leave it there. I'll be back at the

:13:55.:13:55.

same time next week. There's live Scottish Cup action

:13:56.:13:58.

next Sunday, as Hearts travel to Stark's Park

:13:59.:14:09.

to take on Raith Rovers. Can the Championship side

:14:10.:14:13.

cause a Cup upset -

:14:14.:14:17.

Andrew Neil, Gordon Brewer and guests including shadow home secretary Diane Abbott provide reaction to Theresa May's Brexit speech and look at the inauguration of US president Donald Trump. On the political panel are Julia Hartley-Brewer of talkRadio, Tom Newton Dunn of the Sun and broadcaster and journalist Steve Richards.