23/04/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland

It's Sunday afternoon - this is the Sunday Politics.

Jeremy Corbyn wants to give everyone in Britain four

extra bank holidays - but is the Labour leader up

to being Prime Minister if he wins the election in just

Theresa May says she wants a stronger hand to deliver Brexit -

how will the Conservatives go about getting the bigger

I'll be asking Party Chairman, Patrick McLoughlin.

And I've been in Paris where voters are going to the polls in first

round of the French Presidential election - what could be the impact

on the EU and Brexit of this most unpredictable of contests?

Coming up on Sunday Politics Scotland -

As the campaign hots up already, we'll talk to the SNP's leader

at Westminster and three of the opposition parties.

And with me has always ready for the marathon task of covering a snap

general election, even working on bank holidays, the best and

brightest political panel in the business. David Wooding, Polly

Toynbee and Toby Young. So Labour's big announcement this

morning was a crowd pleaser. Four more rainy bank

holidays to enjoy - one for each of the patron saints

of England, Scotland, But Mr Corbyn probably won't be

getting the time off work if he wins And on The Andrew Marr Show this

morning he was asked what he would do as Prime Minister

if the security services asked him to authorise a drone strike

on the leader of Islamic State. What I'd tell them is,

give me the information you've got, tell me how accurate that is,

tell me what you I'm asking you about decisions you

would take as Prime Minister. Can I take you back

to the whole point? Is the objective

to start more strikes that may kill many innocent

people, as has happened? Do you think killing

the leader of Isis would be I think the leader of Isis not

being around would be helpful, and I'm no supporter or defender

in any way of Isis. But I would also argue that

the bombing campaign has killed a of whom were virtually prisoners of

Isis. So you've got to think

about these things. Mr Corbyn earlier. David, is his

reply refreshing damaging? It is damaging. He has clearly been

freaked to the fire already in the first week, there will be lots of

questions on his suitability as a leader and the damage it could cause

to our national security over the weeks ahead and Andrew Marr has cut

straight to the chase here. The other thing, of course, is the

letters of last resort, one of the first duties of a Prime Minister

when he walks into No 10 is to sign these letters on his own, on or --

or on her own in a room, a very lonely moment, to decide whether he

should press the nuclear button and that goes in the Vanguard submarines

and is opened in the event of a strike and he has dodged a question

so many times. One must wonder what he would do that. He has to make

these decisions as Prime Minister. On the Isis point, refreshing or

damaging? It sure is his base, the people who support him, that's the

sort of thing they support info and maybe his tactic is that's all he's

going to get, that is what the polls seem to suggest, in which case they

will be pleased, and say yes, the man is a man for these who doesn't

press buttons and shoot people down. But if you want to win you have to

deal with your own weaknesses and reach out to other people. I think

most people would say that's not somebody who could defend the

country. I wonder if he was being totally honest in saying he would

consider it he would ask for more information. He has previously been

on the record as being against drone strikes in principle, he's

campaigned against them, he wants to abolish drones. I think Andrew Marr

let him off saying it was a drone strike rather than a Navy SEAL or

SAS operation and he had the fact that they could be collateral

damage. We that's not his position because he condemned the

assassination of Osama Bin Laden even though there was no collateral

damage. David is right on the Trident point, he fetched the

question. We heard Niall Griffiths on this very show saying Trident,

the renewal of Trident, would be in the next Labour Party manifesto. It

turns out now we don't know and when he was asked he said that remains to

be seen, his re-opened a can of worms. What he has said about

Trident which was extraordinary was, we will rebuild the submarines but

not have any nukes on them which is expensive and useless. And of course

not have any nukes on them which is the Labour Party were forced soon

after that interview to put out a statement saying it is Labour Party

policy to renew Trident. So where are we? Do we know what the party's

policy is? It is to renew Trident but he has started this review which

involves looking at it all again. We know he is a unilateralist to start

with but whether he can force this through is dubious. Does it matter,

though, if the party policy is in favour of Trident, if the leader is

not? The potential Prime Minister is not? They split three ways when they

went to vote on it in the Commons. The party agreed they were

pro-Trident and when it came to the vote they split three ways. I think

it's difficult for them, it's always been a really difficult issue for

Labour. The question is whether you want to seal off your negatives,

whether you really want to try and reach out to people. There are an

awful lot of people who will like what he said, there are an awful lot

of people that think we have been involved in terrible wars, we have

wasted a lot of money and blood and let's just get back from the whole

thing, let's retreat from the world and not try punching above our

weight. There is something to be said for that and it is a reasonable

argument. He's been true to himself on this. I think he is and Polly is

right, lots of people will agree with him, not enough to win a

general election, the latest ComRes poll shows Tories on 50% and Labour

on 25 and as my colleague James Forsyth in the Spectator said if

this was a boxing match it would have been stopped by now by the

revelry. We are not stopping, we are going on.

So the political parties have had to move into election mode

Stand by for battle buses, mail shots and your social media

timeline being bombarded by political propoganda.

But none of this comes cheap - Adam's been doing his sums.

Democracy is priceless but those planes, trains and automobiles used

in the last election cost money and we know exactly how much,

thanks to the Electoral Commission database.

The Conservatives flew David Cameron to every part of the UK in one day

on a private plane costing ?29,000, in-flight meals extra.

They shelled out ?1.2 million for adverts on Facebook.

The most expensive item was their election guru Lynton Crosby.

They bought ?2.4 million worth of advice and research from his firm

Labour's biggest expenditure was on good old-fashioned leaflets,

costing ?7.4 million to print and deliver.

Hope they didn't go straight into the recycling.

Cheap for all the enjoyment it gave us.

To turn a normal minibus into Harriet Harman's pink bus

Nick Clegg toured the country doing all manner of stunts transported

although the party got a grand's discount when it broke down.

Ukip's then leader Nigel Farage was accompanied by bodyguards

Nicola Sturgeon's chopper cost the SNP ?35,450.

Plaid Cymru spent just over ?1,000 on media training

And the Greens spent ?6,912 promoting their tweets.

It adds up to a grand total for all the parties of ?37,560,039.

Jabbing at my calculator that works out at less than ?1 per voter.

Adam Fleming there - and joining me now is the man

responsible for the Conservative election campaigns -

for the locals next month and the general election in June -

Welcome to the programme. The Crown Prosecution Service is reviewing

evidence from 14 police forces that your party breached election

spending rules on multiple occasions in the last election. What are you

going to do differently this time? Well, the battle buses are part of

the National campaign spend. You saw them just on the shot that you did,

all three parties had those battle buses so that's why we believe they

were part of the national spend and it was declared that way. At least

30 people in your party, MPs and agents, being investigated because

they may not have been right to include it in the national spend.

Are you saying you are going to do nothing differently this time? You

asked me about last time and the way the position is... Was. I asked you

about this time. We will take a careful count and make sure that

everything that we do is within the law. But as I say, the last

election, all three parties had battle buses. It is your party that

above all has been investigated by 14 police forces. You must surely be

taking stock of that and working out how to do some things differently.

You are being investigated because you put stuff on the National Ledger

which should have been on the local constituency ledger. Are you looking

at that again? All of the parties had battle buses and they all put

them on their national spend. I don't think any of the parties put

them on the local spend. The other battle buses were not full of their

party activists. Your party stuffed these battle buses with activists

and took them to constituencies. That's the difference. And I ask

again, what is different this time? Are you going to run the risk of

being investigated yet again? We believe that we fully compliant with

the electoral law as it was. What will happen if one of these, or two

or three or four or five of these 30 people, Tory MPs, or agents running

campaigns are charged during the campaign? As I say I believe we

properly declared our election expenses. What happens if they are

charged? You asking me a hypothetical question, the

importance of this election is about who is in Downing Street in seven

weeks' time. Let me clarify this, you maintain that in 2015 you did

nothing wrong with how you allocated the cost and the activities of the

battle buses and you would do exactly the same this time round?

What we did at the last election we believe fully complied with the law.

So the battle buses this time, stocked full of activists, will

still be charged to the national campaign even when they go to local

constituencies? Will they? We will be looking at the way we do it,

there is new guidance from the Electoral Commission out and we will

look at that guidance. It is not the guidance, it is the lawful stop the

Electoral Commission said that, if you look at the report they did on

us, they said there was one area where we had over claimed, over

declared, and another area we had and declared.

We haven't worked out what to do yet, have you?

We will get on with the campaign and start the campaign and I'm looking

forward to the campaign. I'm trying to work out of the

campaign is going to be legal or not because last time it seems it could

have been illegal. I am sure the campaign will be

legal. You started the campaign warning

about the prospect of, the coalition of chaos. Mr Corbyn has ruled out a

post-election coalition with the SNP and so have the Lib Dems so who is

going to be in this coalition? Vince Cable said he was looking

towards a possible coalition trying to stop a Conservative government.

Is not the leader of the Lib Dems. He's an important voice in the Lib

Dems. Who will be in it? Let's see because of the Conservative Party is

not re-elected with a strong majority, what will happen? There

will be a coalition stopping us doing the things we need to do. Who

will be in it? It will be a coalition of the Labour Party, the

SNP and the Liberal party. They have ruled it out. I think they would not

rule it out if that was the situation. Like Theresa May not

ruling out an election and then changing her mind? The things the

Prime Minister said were very clear, once she had served Article 50 there

was an opportunity, as we know today, there is going to be the

start of a new government formed in France and in September we have the

German elections. So it was quite right that we didn't get ourselves

boxed into a timetable. That is why the Prime Minister took the view

that they should be a general election to give her full strength

of an electoral mandate when it comes to those negotiations. What

about Mr Corbyn's plan for four new bank holidays, good idea? I'm not...

If we get Corbyn in No 10 Downing St we will have a permanent bank

holiday of the United Kingdom. We will have fewer bank holidays of

most other major nations, most about major wealthy nations. What about at

least one more? Well, look, he's talked about four bank holidays.

Today would be a bank holiday and next Monday would be a bank holiday

and the other week was a bank holiday too. I don't think it's very

well thought out. It sounded more to me something like you get in school

mock elections rather than proper elections. Your party is the

self-styled party of the workers and you have no plans to give the

workers even one extra bank holiday? What we want to do is ensure Britain

is a strong economy and building on the jobs that we have created since

2010. We were told that by reducing public expenditure unemployment in

this country would go up, unemployment has gone down and the

number of jobs have gone up substantially. But no more bank

holidays? Well, we will make our manifesto in due course but I don't

think four bank holidays held in April, March and November are very

attractive to people. When Ed Miliband as leader of the Labour

Party suggested the government should control energy prices by

capping them, the Conservatives described that as almost Communist

and central planning. Do still take that view? You'll see what we have

to say on energy prices. I didn't you about that, I asked you if you

take the view... The Prime Minister made a speech at the Conservative

Spring conference in which she outlined her dissatisfaction about

people who are kept locked on a standard tariff and those are the

issues we will address in the next few weeks when the manifesto was

published. Would that be an act of communism?

You will need to see what we say when we set out the policies. It

could be. You could put a Communist act into your manifesto? I don't

think you'll find a Communist manifesto in a Conservative

manifesto which will be launched... You are planning to control prices?

We will address what we think is unfairness in the energy market. Mr

Jeremy Corbyn was reluctant this morning to sanction a drone strike.

You heard us talking about it earlier against the leader of

Islamic State if our intelligence services identified him. What would

it achieve? When the Prime Minister gets certain advice in the national

interests, she has to act been that. We've seen with Theresa May in her

time as Home Secretary and Prime Minister, she's not afraid to take

those very difficult decisions. What we say this morning from Jeremy

Corbyn was a his tans, a reluctance. I don't think that serves the

country well. What would it achieve if we take out the head of Islamic

State he's replaced by somebody else. It brings their organisation

into difficulties. It undermines their organisation. It shows we'll

take every measure to undo an organisation which has organised

terrorism in different parts of Europe, the UK. I think it is

absolutely right the Prime Minister is prepared to take those kind of

measures. Jeremy Corbyn said he wasn't prepared to take that.

Because he wasn't sure what it would achieve. The Obama administration

launched hundreds of drone strikes in various war zones and we in the

west are still under attack on a regular basis. Mr Corbyn's basis was

what would it achieve? It would achieve a safer position for the UK

overall. The war on terrorists. But the Westminster attack, Paris has

just been attacked again? There's been attacks which have been stopped

by the intelligence services. We must do all we can to support them.

The question was about drone strikes. Whether it is drone strikes

or other action, we have to be prepared to act. Let's move on to

Brexit. It is the major reason the Prime Minister's called the

election? Not the only within but the main reason? It is one of the

reasons. Now we start the two-year negotiations and then a year

afterwards. Also the way in which certain people said they would try

to use in the House of Lords or House of Commons to prevent us

making progress. I think you'll put in your manifesto, it is the

Government's policy, the Brexit negotiating position will be no more

freedom of movement. Leave the single market and no longer under

the jurisdiction Europe. You expect every Tory MP to fight on that

manifesto. What will you do with Ken Clarke and Anna? They will have

fought on their manifesto. They will understand the Prime Minister has

the authority of the ballot box behind them. Will they fight the

election on these positions? I'm sure they'll fight the election

supporting the election of a Conservative Government and it's

manifesto will quite clearly set out... You know they're against

these positions. Ken Clarke has a prod tradition of expressing a

certain view. Overall, the party's manifesto, it is not just

individuals like Ken Clarke, it is what happens as far as the House of

Lords are concerned, people said they'd use the House of Lords to

prevent certain measures. You're the party chairman, will it be possible

for people like Ken Clarke to fight this election under the Conservative

ticket without sub describing to all -- subscribing to all of these

Brexit conditions? Ken Clarke will fight as Conservative candidates.

That wasn't my question. I know that. Will they be allowed to fight

it on their own ticket and not subscribe to what is in your

manifesto? The manifesto will be what the Conservative Party fights

the General Election on. There will always be cases where people have

had different views on different parts of the manifesto. That will be

the guiding principles for the party. Philip Hammond says your

election promises in 2015, in your manifesto not to raise taxes tied

his hands when it came to managing the economy. Do you agree with him?

No. The simple fact is we have to do the best things for the economy.

We'll set out in our manifesto in a few weeks' time, what the policies

will be for the next Parliament. Can I clarify, you don't agree with your

Chancellor? What Philip was saying was some of the areas we wants to

address as Chancellor, what the party will do, it will set out all

the issues we're fighting on. It will set out clearly the choice we

have in this country. That's the important thing. Let me put the

question to you again. Philip Hammond said this week your election

promise in 2015 not to raise taxes had tied his hands when it came to

managing the economy. I ask you, do you agree with him? You said no.

Philip expressed his view as to what he would like. What I'm saying is in

a few weeks' time we'll set the manifesto which will set the

policies, agreed with the the Cabinet. He's Chancellor. Doesn't he

determine what the economic part of the manifesto is? We'll talk about

that in due course. Will you have a lock on the taxes that you locked in

2015 on income tax, VAT, national insurance? That will be decided.

You'll see that when we publish the manifesto in a few weeks' time. Will

you rule out the possibility taxes may have to rise under a future

Conservative Party? Conservative Government. We've taken four million

people out of tax. Now, on average, people are paying ?1200 less tax

than they were on the same salaries than they were on the same salaries

in 2010. I'm very provide of that. I can assure you, the Conservative

Party will want to see taxes reduced. It is the Labour Party

which will put up taxes. We have the evidence where this he did so.

Council tax went up by over 100%. You haven't reduced the tax burden

as a percentage of the GDP is now going to reach its highest level

since the mid-180s which was when Conservatives were in power. The tax

burden in this country under your Government is rising? We've more

people paying taxes which is something, because we've a growing

economy and more people... What about the tax band? You said you

reduced the tax burden on your own Government's figures is rising? We

have reduced the tax burden. The threshold at which people start

paying. These are tax rates not the tax burden. It is rising. The tax

rates have been reduced. You said tax burden. Perhaps I misspoke. Tax

rates have been reduced. We'll leave it there. No doubt we'll speak again

between now and June Is France now about to make it

a hat-trick of shocks The prospect terrifies

the governing elite in Paris. But they're no less scared

in Brussels and Berlin, given what it could mean

for the whole EU project, never mind the huge potential impact

on our own Brexit negotiations. 11 candidates are contesting

the first round of the presidential Only the top two will go forward

to the run-off on May 7th. For the first time since General De

Gaulle created the fifth Republic in 1958, it's perfectly possible that

no candidate from the ruling parties of the centre-left or the

centre-right will even make it The election has been dominated by

the hard right in the shape of the who's never been elected

to anything and only started his own party

a few months ago. And the far left in the form

of Jean-Luc Melenchon, a former Trotskyite who has surged

in the final weeks of the campaign. The only candidate left from the

traditional governing parties is the centre-right's

Francois Fillon and he's been struggling to stay in

the race ever since it was revealed that his Welsh wife was being paid

at generous public expense for a job I've just come across

this magazine cover and it kind of sums up the mood

of the French people. It's got the five main candidates

for President here but it calls them the biggest liar, the biggest cheat,

the biggest traitor, the most paranoid, the biggest demagogue,

and it says they are the winners The four leading candidates,

Le Pen, Melenchon, Macron and Fillon, or in with a chance

of making it to the second round. Only a couple of points separates

them in the polls, Frankly, no one has a clue what's

going to happen. Of the four, there is a feeling that

two of them may be President But the two of them may not find

themselves in the second round. Somebody said to me that the man or

woman on the Paris Metro has as much a chance of knowing

who will win as the greatest experts Because the more expert you are

the more you may be wrong. The country has largely

stagnated for over a decade. One in ten are unemployed,

one in four if you are unlucky Like Britain in the '70s there is

the pervasive stench There are three keywords that come

to mind. Anger, anger at the elite, and in

particular the political elite. And an element of

nostalgia for the past. These three words were decisive

in the Brexit referendum. They are decisive in

the French election. Identity and security has been

as important in this election France is a proud nation, it worries

about its future in Europe It seems bereft of ideas about how

to deal with its largely Muslim migrant population, huge chunks of

which are increasingly divorced It is quite simply exhausted by

the never-ending Islamist terrorist attacks, the latest only days before

voting in the iconic heart of this If Fillon or Macron emerge

victorious then there will be continuity of sorts, though Fillon

will struggle to implement his Thatcherite agenda and Macron will

not be able to count on the support of the French parliament, the

National Assembly, for his reforms. But if it's Le Pen or Jean-Luc

Melenchon then all bets are off. Both are hardline French

nationalists, anti the euro, anti the European Union, anti-fiscal

discipline, anti the market, Either in the Elysee Palace

would represent an existential Brexit would simply become

a sideshow, the negotiations could just peter out as Brussels

and Berlin had bigger fish to fry. We're joined now from

Paris by the journalist 8th Welcome to the programme.

Overshadowing the voting today was yet another appalling terrorist

attack in Paris on Thursday night. Do we have any indications of how

that's playing into the election? That initially people thought this

has been almost foiled in that the police were there as a ramp up. One

policeman was killed. But the terrorist did not spray the crowd

with bullets. It was seen as not having much of an effect on the

election. This has changed. We now know the policeman who was killed, a

young man about to the promoted, he was at the Bataclan the night of the

terror attack. He was a fighter for LGBT rights. The fact he was

promoted, happy within his job, he has this fresh face. Sudden, he's

one of us. It took perhaps 48 hours for the French to process this. But

now they're angry and this may actually change the game, at least

at the margins. To whose advantage? I would say the two who might

benefit from this are Marine Le Pen, she's been absolutely

anti-immigration, anti-anything. And made no bones about it as she

immediately made rather strange announcement in which she'd said if

she'd been president none of the terror attacks which happened in

France would have happened. Francois Fillon has written a book two years

ago called Combating Islamic Terrorism he's has an organised plan

in his manifesto. Unlike Emmanuel Macron who stumbled when he was

asked the evening this happened what he thought, he said, I can't dream

up an anti-terror programme overnight. The question, of course,

that arrows was this is not the sort of thing that's just happened

overnight. It's been unfortunately the fate of France for many years.

Let me ask you this finally, what ever the outcome on May 7th in the

second round, who ever wins, would it be fair to say French politics

will never be the same again? Yes. Absolutely it's a very strange

thing. People have no become really excited about this. You cannot go

anywhere without people discussing heatedly this election. The anger

that was described is very accurate. Very true. There was this feeling as

for the Brexit voters and the Trump voters, vast parts of the people

were being talked down to by people who despised them. This has to

change. If it doesn't change, we cannot predict what the future will

be. We'll know the results or at least the ex-the Poll London time

tonight at 8.00pm. Thank for joining us from the glorious heart of your

city. Now, the Green Party currently has

one MP and they'll be contesting many more seats in June

as well as hoping to increase their presence on councils in

the local elections on 4th May. Launching their campaign

on Thursday, co-leader Caroline Lucas made

a pitch to younger voters. When it comes to young

people they've been But one crucial way they've been

betrayed is by what this generation and this government and the previous

ones have been doing when it comes We know we had the hottest year

on record last year, you know, you almost think what else does

the environment need to be doing All the signs are there

and it is young people who are going to be bearing

the brunt of a wrecked environment and that's why it's so important

that when we come to making that pitch to, yes, the country at large

but to young people in particular, I think climate change,

the environment, looking after our precious resources,

has to be up there. And I'm joined now by the Green

MEP, Molly Scott Cato. Welcome back to the programme.

Promised to scrap university tuition fees, increase NHS funding, rollback

cuts to local councils spending, how much would that cost and how would

you pay for it? Like the other parties we haven't got a costed

manifesto yet, it's only a few days since the election was announced so

I will come back and explain the figures. You don't know? Like every

party we have not produced accosted manifesto yet, we produced one last

time but public spending figures have changed so we're not in a

position to do that but we will be in a week or so. What taxes would

you like to consider raising? We would consider having higher taxes

for the better off in society. I think we need to increase the amount

of tax wealthier people pay. How do you define better off? I'm not

entirely clear what the precise number would be but I think 100,000

people would pay a bit more, 150,000 quite considerably more but the real

focus needs to be on companies avoiding paying taxes. I work on

that a lot in my role in the European Parliament, we see an

enormous amount of tax avoidance by companies moving profits from

country to country and we need European corporation to make that

successful. It has not made much difference yet. We have made lots of

changes. Google turned over $1 billion and only paid 25 million in

taxes last year. There was a significant fine introduced by the

competition commission on Apple and in the case of Google we must change

the laws so that people cannot move profits from country to country.

Everybody wants to do it. But you couldn't face a big spending

programme on the ability to do that. You'd have to increase other taxes.

If you look at the cost of free student tuition, tuition fees and

also maintenance grants to students, that would come in at about 10

billion a year. One way of paying for that would be to remove the

upper threshold on National Insurance, bringing in 20 billion a

year, that's the order of magnitude we are talking about. It is not

vast, and some of the proposals we have... That would be an increase on

the better of tax? National Insurance on people earning...

People earning above 42,000. You would have another 10% tax above

42,000? I can't remember exactly how much the National Insurance rate

changes by. But in government figures it would be 28 billion

raised. I think it is up to 45, a bit more you pay a marginal rate of

40%, you would have them pay a marginal rate of over 50%? We would

put the National Insurance rate on higher incomes the same as it is on

lower incomes. If you are a school head of an English department on 50,

60,000 a year you would face a marginal rate under U of over 50%?

It is not useful to do this as a mental maths exercise but if you

look at other proposals would could have a landlord licensing system,

longer term leases on properties, so young people particularly, but also

older people who rent, could have more security which needn't cost

anything. We could insist on landlords paying for that. The

mental arithmetic seems clear but we will come back to that. How is the

mental arithmetic seems clear but we Progressive Alliance coming? It is

going well, I have heard of a lot of Progressive Alliance coming? It is

interest at local level. Winterset this in contest, context, lots of

progressives are concerned about the crisis in public services, prisons,

social care system, and also about the Tories' hard extreme Brexit they

are threatening. You want the left to come together? Theresa May has

given us opportunity, she has taken a risk because she has problems with

backbenchers, she doesn't think she can get through Brexit with a small

majority so there is an opportunity and we are saying progressives must

come together to corporate, Conservatives are effective at using

the first-past-the-post system and we have to become effective as well.

Do you accept this Progressive Alliance cannot become the

government and Mr Corbyn is the Prime Minister? How could it happen

otherwise? I think that is a secondary question. For me the

primary question is who do people choose to vote for? Aluminium

government afterwards comes after the election. In most countries that

is the case. I understand that but we have the system we have and you

accept this Progressive Alliance cannot be in power and thus mystical

Burmese Prime Minister? Personally I think Mr Corbyn is less of a threat

Burmese Prime Minister? Personally I to the country than Theresa May, she

has shown herself to be an authoritarian leader and she has

said she doesn't want to have dissidents, which I would say is

reasonable opposition, and what we are suggesting at the moment is

there is a way of avoiding that very hard Brexit and damage to public

services. You'd be happy to pay the price of having Mr Corbyn as Prime

Minister? I do not see that as a price. People have the choice of

Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May as Prime Minister, that's the system

that works. You would prefer Mr Corbyn? I would but votes are

translated into seats and the Progressive Alliance is a step

towards It's just gone 3:50pm,

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good afternoon and welcome

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Just months after Theresa

May ruled it out - It led to

heated exchanges at this week's I'll be talking to the SNP's

leader at Westminster - and to three of the parties

which hope to make a dent It's not even a week

since Theresa May announced she wanted a snap general

election in June. But already the parties

are in full election mode, with candidates being selected

and campaigning underway. And there are some interesting

polls this weekend. In the studio with me is the polling

expert and professor of Politics at the University of

Strathclyde, John Curtice. Restored to the Scottish schools.

Two today, they would seem to indicate that the Tory surge is more

than just imaginary. Evidence since last year's Holyrood elections

suggest the Conservatives are advancing in Scotland. We can point

to a poll for the Sunday Times which has the Tories at 33%, the highest

for years. The same Paul last month had them at 28. It is quite a while

since they last pulled so certainly a Conservative revival in Scotland,

it looks like it has strengthened further. The SNP, that said are

still dominant in the polls but are running at 43%. That is six points

below the high level of 2015. It will be difficult for the SNP to

hang onto as many as 50 62nd time around, they are inevitably on the

defensive and these polls show a marginal drop in support. What does

this rising support for the Tories mean in terms of seats? If you take

the average today, it suggests the Conservatives will pick up eight

seats of the SNP so we are still not talking about the Conservatives

having a large representation in Scotland. Any gain in seats north of

the border potentially adds to Theresa May's objective which is to

get as big a majority inside the Theresa May's objective which is to

House of Commons as possible. For so long Scotland as dominated by the

SNP, that agenda is more difficult. There has been talk about today is

only getting a 100 seat majority, is that the gays? If the Tories pick up

seats from Labour? -- is that the case? Could it not cancel out if the

Liberal Democrats make inroads? That would be an optimistic scenario for

opposition parties. The truth is Labour are 20 points behind. That

means you are looking at a majority of around 120 up to 140. There has

been seen a rise in Conservative support by squeezing Ukip. Even

been seen a rise in Conservative then, it becomes more difficult for

any party, including the Liberal Democrats to take seats of the

Conservatives. There clearly are some seats, one can point to seats

in London where the Liberal Democrats won until 2015 and still

have a substantial base. At the moment, if the Liberal Democrats

were to do as much as double their representation, they will be doing

were to do as much as double their well and nine extra seats is not

going to make a major dent in to Theresa May's position. Can leave a

turn around and defy the polls? The cute but even if they defy the

polls, they will still end up losing because they are just so far behind

in the polls. The polls, although inaccurate sometimes, have never

been so inaccurate to suggest that a 20 point lead is some kind of myth.

This means that Labour Party is facing a series defeat, perhaps more

seriously than back in 1993 when Michael foot led the party and also

the party is at risk of ending up with nothing in Scotland, they have

Edinburgh South. Both the Conservatives and Labour are eyeing

that seat. Thank you very much indeed.

So what does that mean for the politicians?

Joining me now from Moray is the deputy leader of the SNP

and the party's Westminster leader Angus Robertson.

This progressive alliance that Nicola Sturgeon was talking about,

given the attitude of labour and the Liberal Democrats, has that no gone?

I think all the indications are that there are no circumstances that

suggest there might be an opportunity to work across parties

to thwart this ever more extreme right-wing Tory government. Whilst

always stressing that we are prepared to work with other parties,

it is totally dependent on the numbers and looks like Labour are

heading for a bad -- I defeat in England so I think the question is

academic at this stage. I should apologise to people watching because

that is a long delay on this satellite link. Brexit, what are you

going to see? There are areas, especially in the north-east, your

constituency in fact, where people were glad to get out of the European

union, are you going to be is telling them to vote SNP so we can

have an independence referendum and go straight back in again? I think

the key point, even for leave voters throughout Scotland and this part of

the world, if they were not voting for the hard Brexit the UK

Government is voting. Membership of the single market really matters, in

this part of the world for example for the fish processors or she is in

Speyside where we are known as the centre of the food and drink

industry for Scotland. -- or here in Speyside. A lot of people who voted

leave in the referendum are very concerned about the prospect of hard

Brexit that Theresa May is proceeding which is why a vote for

the SNP will be a vote for protecting our place in Europe and

ourselves against the dangers and excesses of the Brexit position

being pursued by the government in Westminster. It is SNP policy to

become a full member of the European Westminster. It is SNP policy to

union, so you're in the -- message to fishermen for example, you might

be glad to get out of the Common fisheries policy but our policy as

the SNP is to have an independent Scotland which will go straight back

into the Common fisheries? The first thing to understand is that the UK

Government has listed fishing is a low priority in its Brexit

negotiations so fishermen in this part of the world have long memories

and remembered it was the Tories who sold out the fishing industry and

caused devastation to jobs right around the Scottish coast. We're not

going to take lessons and protecting the fishing industry from the

Tories. It will be important to the next parliament that strong voices

will be standing up for fishing communities which is what we will do

and that is why membership of the single market really matters. It is

not just the offshore sector, it is the onshore sector, like food

processing which matter so much to our economy. The SNP will be

protecting coastal communities well the Tories suggest they are low

priority. This new model approach is not what I stood SNP policy to be. I

priority. This new model approach is thought the policy was another

independence referendum, you want to win it and become a full member of

the European union which would involve joining the Common Fisheries

Policy? The first thing on this election campaign is that it is

about electing a parliament at Westminster and a UK government. On

the question of the independence referendum, the SNP already has a

mandate to hold such a referendum, the Scottish Parliament has already

voted for it. Specifically on the fishing industry, I would repeat the

point that the UK Government says fishing is a low priority. I would

have real concerns, given that we know the Tories have not committed

to repatriating all powers of the fisheries, notwithstanding the fact

to repatriating all powers of the that it is devolved. Having sold out

the fishing industry once, I think people in coastal communities should

be cautious about the Tories suggesting they are friends of the

fishing industry when they are not. I was not asking what you will see

to the Tories but what you will see to your own elected it. I have asked

you three times to state that it is the SNP policy to have an

independence referendum and become a full member of the European union

and therefore the Common Fisheries Policy but you still have not said

yes, that is the SNP policy? Yes, it is the SNP policy, we are in favour

of Scotland being a member state member of the European union and a

member of the Common Fisheries Policy but I am seeing this election

is about Brexit negotiations and the UK Government approach to fishing.

We have ascertained that the UK Government regards fishing and

fishing communities as a low priority and they are not prepared

to ensure that all of the powers that should be exercised over

fishing in Scotland are exercised in Scotland. So if people are going to

stand up for Scotland in the next general election, it will be the SNP

that do it, not the Tories. On this issue about limiting tax credit to

two children, will it be your policy to stop that happening in Scotland

by effectively keeping the existing situation on tax credits or not? You

are talking about what is more generally understood as the Reaper

clause which unfortunately, the Tories in Scotland have been running

away from ever since it was passed. away from ever since it was passed.

-- rape clause. We voted for its repeal at Westminster. If ever we

wanted a timely memory that the Tories are the nasty party, an

epithet that was coined by Theresa May, it is this rape clause. Every

SNP parliamentarian and I would say the opportunity to thank my

colleague who has been spearheading the campaign against rape clause,

the more SNP MPs that are at Westminster, the louder the voice

against the rape clause. Anyone voting against will be contributing

to the idea this is an inappropriate policy and it is not. Thank you very

much. In the studio now -

we have the deputy leader of Scottish Labour, Alex Rowley,

the deputy leader of the Scottish Conservatives, Jackson Carlaw -

and in our Edinburgh studio is the Scottish Liberal Democrat MSP

Alex Cole Hamilton. And so-called rape clause, the

Scottish Tories have themselves in a right mess over this, and how will

you get out of it? Any form of welfare reform is difficult, it

touches on sensitive issues. In 2015 beware committed to welfare reform

and one of the reforms was that would be -- there would be a tax

credit for the first two children in each family had we felt was that

they would be provisos. This includes children that were born as

a result of nonconsensual sex. We think it is right the benefit is

attached but I send that it is an awkward policy. And should be gotten

rid of? I don't think so, because we agree that the reform is

necessary... If you are in a room thinking about this you wonder how

on earth did someone actually think this was a good idea? When we put

this before Parliament that child tax credits should be for the first

two children in a family we spoke to other parties to establish what

exemptions should exist in those circumstances and this was one of

the exemptions. Harriet Harman in principle supported that this should

be one of the exemptions pursued. It isn't appropriate that additional

benefits goes to the families. Alec, what ambitions do you have? You are

20 points behind in the pool. We have just had angered Robertson be

very clear that his party the SNP want to take Scotland out all our

largest single market which is the want to take Scotland out all our

UK, in order to get us into the European single market by remaining

part of the European Union and in terms of the Tories, this next six

or seven weeks we need to examine not just the hard Brexit but the

record, we need to examine the record... Have you any confidence

that Jeremy Corbyn the Labour Party can overturn a 20 point deficit in

the polls in seven days -- seven weeks? I support Jeremy Corbyn and

he can offer a different kind of politics. People in this country

want change and that is what's Jeremy Corbyn offers. The permit to

be able to ask what kind of society to be one? One of the same with the

Tories or do we want ripped out of the largest single market... You

have been single for two years and it has made no difference. What do

have been single for two years and you do to change it? In these next

six and seven weeks there are important issues in terms of Brexit

and the SNP want to dig is out of our largest in the market but let's

look at our record with the Tories in the table Scotland that we want.

I am confident that if we can do that and we can narrow those polls

and Labour can win seats in Scotland as well as across the United

Kingdom. Alex Cole Hamilton, I'm curious about your position on

another referendum on the European Union. You're seeing now that there

should only be one when there is -- when the negotiations have come to a

final deal, is that correct? That is correct, we are offering a

referendum on the exit deal with remain being an option on that

ballot paper, we believe that when the league campaign took the case to

the British people on the 23rd of June that it was based on a

prospectus which has been found out June that it was based on a

to be profoundly flawed and indeed June that it was based on a

in some cases concluded depositors, everyone members... Just to be

clear, the British government to negotiate a deal and the Liberal

Democrats seem to accept that the British government will not be a

Liberal Democrat one-handed then has to have a referendum but to be clear

Liberal Democrat one-handed then has you're seeing if the deal was

rejected we do what? Stay in the EU? Absolutely and I think that is a

message that is really resonating with 40s across the country. We have

seen Liberal Democrat membership search by 15,000 across the country.

We have taken in ?1.6 million in donations in that time goes this is

a message that makes it unique among the other parties. We want to have

Scotland remain at the heart of the United Kingdom and the United

Kingdom remain in the heart of Europe. We will put that to the

people in a very compelling perspective for us to remain.

Jackson Karl, by calling of a general election, since Theresa May

completely undermine the position that you can have another

independence referendum in Scotland? If you can have another general

election when we don't have the faintest idea where the Brexit

negotiations will lead them why not have another independence

referendum? And independence referendum is something that would

take one year or two years or longer and I think would paralyse Scotland

through the process. The general and I think would paralyse Scotland

election will be resolved by June eight. That is not the argument

Theresa May, she said you can't have another independence referendum

because we don't know what the final Brexit deal is and it would not be

fair to the people of Scotland to ask them to me the choice but the

people of Britain are being asked to make a choice. The people and were

asked to make a choice last year... She wants a mandate for her former

Brexit that we haven't the faintest idea what it is. She wants a mandate

to make sure that it is she, Theresa May, negotiating on behalf of the UK

through the whole process. Why does she need a mandate for that? That is

the situation we are in. Many people have come to realise that the

negotiations would be coming to a conclusion at the point where

another general election might be about to take place are we not to

seek a fresh mandate. Following up on Alex Cole Hamilton's point in the

pond Theresa May is making, if what you're doing is advertising in

advance that you are going to have another referendum, which of course

we would encourage not to negotiate seriously or to negotiate a bad

deal, or if you are at the point where there is another election and

maybe in the of those not to try and negotiate seriously to get the deal

we need then I think that would be a problem. The Prime Minister is

seeking to get a clear mandate for five years, which would take us

through the whole Brexit negotiation process and the clear decision for

people on the 8th of June is whether or not they want to read the Jeremy

Corbyn conducting the station. What do you make of Alex Cole Hamilton's

idea of another referendum? We have got to accept the outcome of the

referendum, I campaigned to remain within Europe but we just can't have

a time we have a referendum and don't like the result that have

another one. I think the Tories... Labour position is that there should

be a meaningful vote on the final deal. Yes. What does that mean? We

need to get the best deal possible and that is about access to the

single market. Let's say that doesn't happen in the House of

Commons rises up under a, Labour vote against the final deal, at

least what Alex Cole Hamilton are vote against the final deal, at

seeing is clear, we would stay in the EU. I am not clear what labours

idea is. We are seeing if you want a Brexit deal that isn't the best of

Scotland and the UK and then vote Labour. The Tories want to spend

this whole election talking about Brexit or independence, because they

don't want to talk about the record, they don't want to talk about the

big issues facing people in Scotland every day. So we need to have a

discussion around Brexit, we certainly need to roll out another

independence referendum in the lifetime of this Parliament -- rule

out another referendum in the lifetime of this Parliament. Before

Jackson Carl or Alex Cole Hamilton both set, the criticism of Labour on

Brexit is that you don't have a clear line with the Lib Dems and

Tories do. We accept the outcome of the referendum, and in that

referendum it was never put forward that if you come out of Europe then

you could not have access to the European free market. And we need to

get the best deal possible that gives us access into Europe for

trade and while at the same time retaining access to our largest

single market which is the rest of the United Kingdom. Alex Cole

Hamilton, as I am sure Alec rally will say there will be a research

and support for Jeremy Corbyn and Labour will do quite well but not

quite well enough. There are no circumstances whatsoever in which

you would go into coalition? Not at all and Tim Farren made that

clear. That is because everybody knows the Jeremy Corbyn is going to

lose this election very badly but also... If you thought he would win

then you might want to coalition? Because of the real vacillation in

the Labour Party, we have just headed there, they don't believe

that the process begun by a vote by the British people should "By the

British people and that should be left Parliament, if Labour not get

what they want the left out of this process and as such they will be as

opposed Jeremy Corbyn as leadership opposed Jeremy Corbyn as leadership

-- in his leadership, you'll be carping from the sidelines. We want

to be the new opposition to the Tory government at Westminster. Alec, I

can see already the pollsters, you know, of Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola

Sturgeon's pocket appear in England. How will you convince voters in

Sturgeon's pocket appear in England. England that should Jeremy Corbyn

Sturgeon's pocket appear in England. reasonably well and have a chance of

forming a government that he will not immediately having been rejected

by Alex Cole Hamilton joined up with the SNP? That is why the need to

campaign for every vote in Scotland that that the party that will stand

up for Scotland in Westminster, the party that will... Would you roll

out coalition with the SNP under any circumstances? Absolutely. We are

the party that will stand up for Scotland and Westminster and will go

to Westminster and fight for Scotland, so we are asking people in

Scotland to vote Labour and said Labour MPs to Westminster to stand

up for Scotland. The Mac will you be on the phone to Central office

saying old printing those posters of Jeremy Corbyn and Nicola Sturgeon

because we want to see in this campaign, not fake news that would

be fake news. Produces Jeremy Corbyn will be in Scotland's pocket, he was

not huge and the referendum in 2014, he said he's too busy and he said he

is personally relaxed about having a second independent referendum.

People in Scotland are not want a second independent referendum and

already Scottish Conservatives have been consistent about this. That is

interesting but it has nothing to do with the question I asked. That is

the truth of the position. It damages the case for the union when

PC pro UK parties like the Conservatives doing down the very

hard efforts of our party Liberal Democrats would have been

consistent. 12 months ago you said was not a condition of the

letters... I won my election, I won my election in Edinburgh West on an

absolute resolute commitment to oppose a second referendum. Alec

appeared to interject and say... The oppose a second referendum. Alec

Tories are the greatest threat to the union. The Tories want to

continue, ... Labours policies that the Tories are a great asset to the

UK? The Tories want to make the issue of the second referendum in

UK? The Tories want to make the Scotland. I think you will find in

UK? The Tories want to make the Parliament and elsewhere the Tories

talk about independence more than any other party. The reason for that

if the do not want to talk about the record. Talking about the rape

clause, you said that it was like and member the word to use,

unfortunate? It is an awkward policy but it is the right one. If it is

not good policy then surely it should be repealed. We must support

as I said earlier families where should be repealed. We must support

there are multiple births, children are adopted from care and also

children in those circumstances. It would be bad policy not to support

them. Easy it is not good policies we have to change it. I am sorry,

there will be many more opportunities, we have seven weeks

of this. Now it's time to take look

back over the last seven it's certainly been

a tumultuous week. One minute we were all girding our

loins for the local council elections, the next,

Mrs May shook us out of our post-bank holiday complacency

with a bombshell announcement. John McManus looks back

at a momentous seven days. Delicious. Maybe you can have too

much chocolate. But when we all came back from the Easter bank holiday on

Tuesday we thought the only thing we had to look forward to was this.

Scottish council elections. Hardly a sugar rush. Then... I have just

chaired a meeting of the Cabinet sugar rush. Then... I have just

where we agreed that the government sugar rush. Then... I have just

should call a general election. To be held on the 8th of June. Brad

Haddin she said... I am not going to be calling a snap election, I have

been clear that I think we need the period of time and stability to be

able to deal with the issues that the country is facing and have that

election in 2020. That post holiday U-turn took everyone by surprise.

And suddenly poetical journalists were burning of those Easter

calories in a frenzy of comments. On Wednesday MPs gathered in the

Commons to vote through the planned for June 's election with just 13

opposed. The SNP abstained. The Prime Minister made clear that this

was all about Brexit. I will ask the British people for the mandate to

complete Brexit and make a success of it. Once they picked themselves

up from the four political opponents of Mrs May in Scotland moved quickly

to frame the coming election in the of Mrs May in Scotland moved quickly

Thames. The key issue at this election is who is going to stand up

for Scotland against an increasingly hardline Tory government? Ruth

Davidson was not going to take that lying down. The fact is presiding

officer that the way the SNP is readying itself to poor negativity

on this country at this election is shameful. She might not like it, but

on this country at this election is Scotland is part of this United

Kingdom. And Kizzire Dugdale wanted to know why the SNP have abstained

in the Commons vote. The First Minister has said that she wants an

honest debate. So let's have it. It sits the SNP for the Tories to stay

in power. And staying with Brexit, received uncertainty over whether

SNP stand on membership of the EU has become a weapon for their

opponents. The First Minister has a chance to

influence this, does she want full membership of the European union in

the SNP manifesto? Our policy is clear, we want Scotland to remain

members of the European union. Nobody could have missed that. In

2015 leave heard accusations it would be puppet of the SNP that

2015 leave heard accusations it formed a minority government. At his

campaign launch, Jeremy Corbyn quashed that idea and insisted the

underdog could be top dog. They think there are rules and politics,

which if you don't fall by doffing your cap to the powerful people, is

accepting that things can change, then you cannot when but of course

they do not want us to win because when we win it is the people, not

the powerful who wins. Away from the election, the row over their rape

clause was growing with Ruth Davidson repeatedly condemned for

supporting it. Do you support the rape clause in principle or do you

like we think it is utterly abhorrent, and so the question? --

answer. I will answer the question the same way I answered it in the

press, if the First Minister does not like the two child tax policy,

she can change it. So the election is coming up, the starter in May and

the main courses in June. All parties will try to say they are

offering something fresh and distinctive. They are hoping the

voters will not turn their noses up at them.

My guests this week Moray MacDonald - the former director

of Scottish Conservatives turned PR executive and Isobel Lindsay,

who's the co-vice chair of Scottish CND.

Stand back from this little bit, I can see why a lot of people

including myself feel confused about the selection because people are

saying it is an election about Brexit, it is not entirely clear it

is. Another people see it an election about another in did --

independence referendum but it is not clear on that either? It is an

election because the Tories know there is a lot of nasty stuff coming

down the line and decided on balance it would be better to try and have

five straight years than face the electorate in three years from no so

it is really about opportunism on the part of Theresa May's

government. How it is framed by the other parties is another question.

The Tories were already trying to run the local elections on the basis

of anti-dot-mac no with a general election it is anti-referendum. I

think the SNP has quite a good opportunity because they can both

combine the case for independence implicitly by focusing on the damage

that five years of a very right-wing Tory government can do to Scotland's

and looking at past records. They can frame it that way. Sending out

the message that the only way to get can frame it that way. Sending out

out of this is independence but at the same time, can't talk about the

issues. Should the SNP failed to win 56 seats, the opposition parties

will laugh and say that Peak nationalism is over? Of course they

will try and do that even if they lost three seats. The answer is the

previous result was so outstanding... As you are a public

relations man, what advice would you give Jackson Carlaw who was

uncomfortable talking about the rape clause and said it was awkward, then

he said it was the correct thing to do? It is awkward for the Tories.

You can see why they have the policy because they are restricting

benefits to make sure it is only for up to two children. To some people

they look on what they perceive as a benefit culture, people who are

producing children just to get benefits. I think it is a tiny

percentage of the population that would apply to. I would argue we

ought to be encouraging growth in the population, it is a slightly odd

thing to come up with. Particularly in Scotland, we will have an issue

in terms of the employment market, our population is declining so it is

more difficult up year. our population is declining so it is

realistically what could Jackson Carlaw do? Should the Tories in

realistically what could Jackson Scotland say we disagree with

Theresa May on this? If you say you are against the rape clause but in

favour of the policy, the next question is so what? Women who are

raped should not get tax credits for their children? It is a nightmare

scenario. It is one of these issues, in the Scottish context, is

impossible for the Scottish Tories to deal with, it a reserved matter.

What you do is fix the problem in terms of PR, you fix the policy.

This then you use will never get you out of that so they have to find a

way of getting the cuts they want out of benefits without having

this... What do you make about Isabel's talking about the way the

SNP frames this implicitly? Building a talk by warning people about the

dangers of a Tory Government? -- building it up. I think that is the

right thing to do, in Scotland looks like a battle between the Tories

against the SNP... Hang on, 28 up to 33 in the polls. In the battle

between the SNP and Tories, according to the polls, labour and

the Lib Dems remain apart to that so the more the SNP can label the

Tories as a party that are hard on people, the less likely they are to

get elected. The result was the sense that as a result of their own

success last time, there is not a lot in this for the SNP? I think

that is a strong case, if Labour had decided to oppose having another

election, but given where we are? -- given where we are, it gives an

opportunity for campaigning. A given where we are, it gives an

of supporters, wider than the SNP, are looking for something to do. We

want to be good up for another independence... So we have a general

election? It was not the choice, they know have a focus and a

purpose. There is that in it for them but also they can get this

message home that the purchase of independence is not just an abstract

one, but it is to determine socio- economic policies. Thank you both

very much. Just before we go -

lets take a look at one of funniest Winning was 56 seats will be a huge

challenge for Nicola Sturgeon's party. They have suggested we have

reached the peak for the SNP and the only way is down... There is a

lesson there somewhere but I am not sure what it is. Keep an eye out for

say hands up to Nicola Sturgeon but say hands up to Nicola Sturgeon but

-- because I do say hands up to Nicola Sturgeon but

politicians would do. They would have stepped back a bit but she

handled very well. We look forward to tearful pieces to camera from

there on. -- to tearful pieces.