30/04/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


30/04/2017

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:40.

Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,

:00:41.:00:43.

but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto

:00:44.:00:46.

promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.

:00:47.:00:53.

The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously

:00:54.:00:56.

agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but

:00:57.:01:00.

And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's

:01:01.:01:10.

local elections, I'll be talking to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne

:01:11.:01:13.

Wood, and the former leader of the SNP Alex Salmond.

:01:14.:01:16.

Questions are raised over the SNP's policy on fishing,

:01:17.:01:20.

after two of its MPs signed a pledge to oppose

:01:21.:01:22.

They hit an all-time low after coalition government,

:01:23.:01:48.

but are the Lib Dems poised to bounce back,

:01:49.:01:49.

And with me to analyse the week's politics,

:01:50.:01:55.

Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards, Tom Newton-Dunn.

:01:56.:01:56.

They'll be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.

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So when Theresa May was interviewed just over an hour ago

:01:59.:02:09.

We have absolutely no plans to increase the level of tax,

:02:10.:02:12.

but I'm also very clear that I don't want to make specific proposals

:02:13.:02:15.

on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure that I can deliver on those.

:02:16.:02:18.

But it is, would be my intention as a Conservative Government

:02:19.:02:21.

and a Conservative Prime Minister, to reduce the taxes

:02:22.:02:23.

The Tories like to have a clear tax message in elections, are they

:02:24.:02:32.

getting into a bit of a mess? That method wasn't clear, but does it

:02:33.:02:36.

mean, saying they have no plans to increase the level of tax? We are

:02:37.:02:41.

clear there will not be a rise in VAT, a lot of commentators will get

:02:42.:02:45.

overexcited about that, but there was no great expectations there

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would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as it is, because even one percentage

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point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for the exchequer so it is tempting but

:02:56.:02:59.

there has been no speculation that would happen. We can see that she

:03:00.:03:07.

clearly wants to reiterate the language about hard-working families

:03:08.:03:10.

but I don't think we are that much the wiser. Even if she does not put

:03:11.:03:16.

up rates, according to projections the overall tax burden, as a

:03:17.:03:20.

percentage of GDP, is rising, will rise in the years ahead. That is why

:03:21.:03:25.

it was an odd phrase, I know she is doing it to be evasive but to say

:03:26.:03:29.

they have no plans to raise the general level of taxation, they do

:03:30.:03:33.

have. We also know they have specific plans because it was in the

:03:34.:03:38.

last budget, they had a tax rise which they had to revise, National

:03:39.:03:45.

Insurance rises, so very wisely in my view they are keeping options

:03:46.:03:52.

open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate was a fantasy world, totally

:03:53.:03:56.

unrelated to the demands that would follow. They now have the

:03:57.:04:01.

flexibility, one of the arguments you had heard last time was Philip

:04:02.:04:05.

Hammond saying to her, we have to break away from the 2015 manifesto

:04:06.:04:10.

commitment and we can only do it this way, that is one of the better

:04:11.:04:15.

arguments. The Tories like to talk about tax cuts in elections, whether

:04:16.:04:19.

they do it is another matter, but they are not being allowed to talk

:04:20.:04:26.

about tax cuts, they are now on the defensive over whether they will

:04:27.:04:30.

raise taxes. That is not a healthy position for the campaign to be in.

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If you look at the numbers, quite frankly, if you will not do this at

:04:34.:04:38.

this election with eight 20 point lead over Labour, then when will you

:04:39.:04:42.

take these tough decisions? Reading between the lines of what Theresa

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May has said all over different broadcasters this morning, income

:04:47.:04:49.

tax will go down for low-income families, such as the threshold rise

:04:50.:04:53.

that microbes that was already factored in. She has had to commit

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to it again. VAT will be fat, national insurance contributions

:05:01.:05:04.

will go up. Do you think they will go up? I think so, she had plenty of

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opportunity to rule it out and she didn't. There was a terrible mess

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with the budget, it is a good tax argument but not a good electoral

:05:17.:05:20.

argument that you are eroding the base so heavily with people moving

:05:21.:05:25.

into self-employment that as you raise national insurance

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contributions for everybody but the self-employed, it is something the

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Treasury will have to look at. The other triple lock on pensions, we

:05:32.:05:35.

don't know if they will keep to that either? If they are sensible they

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will find a form of words to give them flexibility in that area as

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well. I would say there is no question over that, that has gone.

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As Mrs May would say, you will have to wait for the manifesto. That is

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what all the party leaders tell me! Labour have spent the weekend

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pushing their messages Speaking at a camapign rally

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in London yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour

:05:59.:06:01.

government would fix what he called People are fed up, fed up with not

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being able to get somewhere to live, fed up waiting for hospital

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appointments, fed up with 0-hours contracts, fed up with low pay, fed

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up with debt, fed up with not being able to get on in their lives

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because we have a system that is rigged against so many.

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I've been joined from Newcastle by Labour's elections

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and campaigns co-ordinator, Ian Lavery.

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Good morning. To deal with this rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls

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it, the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has a 20 point plan for

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workers out today. When you add up everything he plans to do to help

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workers, how much will it cost? The full costings, one thing I need to

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say at the very beginning, the costings of any policy which we have

:06:55.:06:59.

already ruled out and any policy we will be ruling out in the next few

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days and weeks will be fully costed in the manifesto and in addition to

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the fact that it will be fully costed, we will see it in the

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manifesto how indeed it has been funded, so we are very clear,

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anything we have seen already, and there are some exciting policy

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releases and there will be more in the future, anything we are going to

:07:23.:07:26.

do will be fully costed and in the manifesto. You announced a 20 point

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plan but cannot tell me what the costs will be this morning so at the

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moment it is a menu without prices? It is not a menu without prices, it

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is a fantastic opportunity. This 20 point plan is something which will

:07:40.:07:44.

transform the lives of millions of millions of people in the

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workplace... But what is the cost? It will be welcomed by many people

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across the UK. The fact the costings have not been released, you will

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have to be patient, it will be released very clearly, it will

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identify that in the manifesto. Let me come down to one of the points,

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the end of the public sector pay freeze. Can you give us any idea how

:08:07.:08:12.

much that will cost? The end of the public sector pay freeze, so

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important to the future of the Labour Party, it is an massive

:08:16.:08:22.

policy decision. Let me say at this stage, Theresa May, the Prime

:08:23.:08:27.

Minister, this morning, on The Andrew Marr Show, did not have the

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common decency, courtesy all respect to condone the fact that nurses, the

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heroes of the NHS, have had a reduction of nearly 14% in their

:08:37.:08:42.

wages since 2010 and are using food banks to feed themselves! Does that

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not say everything that is wrong with today's society? So can you

:08:47.:08:53.

tell me what it will cost, which is what my question was? What I will

:08:54.:08:57.

say is everything the Labour Party pledges, everything that we come out

:08:58.:09:00.

with, what we will roll out between now and the 8th of June, will be

:09:01.:09:05.

fully costed, people will be very much aware of how much the costings

:09:06.:09:09.

will be, where the funding will come from, when the manifesto is

:09:10.:09:14.

published. What about doubling paternity leave, nu minimum wage,

:09:15.:09:18.

four new bank holidays, any idea what it will

:09:19.:09:30.

cost? These are exciting new proposals and of course today cost

:09:31.:09:33.

money but we are the sixth richest economy in the world. It is about

:09:34.:09:35.

redistribution of the wealth we create. We are seeing growth in the

:09:36.:09:38.

economy, it is how we utilise the finances in the best way we possibly

:09:39.:09:41.

can for a fairer society for the many and not the few. You just can't

:09:42.:09:47.

tell me how much it will cost? That is why I will repeat again that you

:09:48.:09:52.

need to be very patient. Do you know the cost yourself? You are the head

:09:53.:09:56.

of the campaign, do you know the cost of these things yourself? I am

:09:57.:10:00.

very much aware of how much the costings are likely to be, they have

:10:01.:10:04.

been identified, they will be published in the manifesto. You

:10:05.:10:10.

really do understand I would not be releasing today, live on your show,

:10:11.:10:14.

any costings or predictions with regards the manifesto. Why not? You

:10:15.:10:19.

have released the policy, why not the cost? Because there is a fine

:10:20.:10:25.

detail and we will identify it to the general public in

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detail and we will identify it to the general public in the manifesto.

:10:26.:10:28.

We not only explain how much it will cost but we will explain where the

:10:29.:10:35.

funding comes from. Be patient. Will some of the costs be met by

:10:36.:10:41.

increasing taxes? I would think at this point in time there is not any

:10:42.:10:45.

indication to increase basic taxes and again the taxes and spending of

:10:46.:10:51.

the Labour Government with the proposals of the 20 point plan, the

:10:52.:10:56.

issues we have got, housing, the NHS, crime, education will all be

:10:57.:11:03.

identified with the costings in the publication. Can you tell us this

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morning, we'll tax for most people rise or not to finance this? We in

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the Labour Party are looking to a fair tax system which will be

:11:15.:11:21.

clearly identified in the manifesto. Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all

:11:22.:11:26.

0-hours contracts. Would that include those who actually like

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those contracts? There are nearly 1 million, depending on which figured

:11:33.:11:35.

you'd use, there are nearly 1 million people on zero-hours

:11:36.:11:39.

contract and the vast proportion of those want to be able to live a

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decent life, a secure life, they want to understand whether they will

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be at work the next day, they're included hours... I understand a lot

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of people don't like zero-hours contract and your proposal will

:11:55.:11:58.

address that, but there are those, I saw one survey where 65% of people

:11:59.:12:04.

on zero-hours contract like the flexibility it gives them. Will you

:12:05.:12:08.

force them off zero-hours contract or if they like them will they

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continue with them? We will discuss it with employee is to make sure

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individuals in the workplace have the right to negotiate hours in that

:12:17.:12:20.

workplace. Guaranteed hours is very, very important. Zero-hour contracts

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are an instrument in which employers abuse and exploit mainly young

:12:29.:12:32.

people, mainly female people in the workplace. We would be banning

:12:33.:12:38.

zero-hour contract. But there are those, students for example, who

:12:39.:12:43.

like them, would they be forced off zero-hour contracts in your

:12:44.:12:47.

proposal? Our proposal would be banning zero-hour contract and

:12:48.:12:51.

introducing contracts which have set hours in the workplace. You also say

:12:52.:12:56.

no company will be able to bid for a public contract unless the boss

:12:57.:13:00.

earns no more than 20 times the lowest paid, or the average wage,

:13:01.:13:06.

I'm not quite sure which. What would happen if British Aerospace bids to

:13:07.:13:09.

build more joint strike Fighters and the boss is paid more than 20 times?

:13:10.:13:15.

I understand the point you raise but we have an obscene situation in this

:13:16.:13:22.

country, Andrew, in which the bosses at the very top make an absolute

:13:23.:13:26.

fortune... But what would happen then? Who would build joint strike

:13:27.:13:33.

Fighters... The difference in wages between the top earners in the

:13:34.:13:37.

country and the people in the factories, in the workshops,

:13:38.:13:43.

producing the goods, is vast. I understand that is the reason you

:13:44.:13:47.

want a ratio. What I am saying is, what happens if the ratio is

:13:48.:13:52.

greater? Who gets the contract if not British Aerospace? Who else

:13:53.:13:57.

builds the planes? We are going to introduce a wage rate CEO of one to

:13:58.:14:04.

20. -- wage ratio. We want to close the gap between the people at the

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very top and people who produce the goods. Let me try one more Time, who

:14:08.:14:11.

would build the joint strike fighter? We would look at the issue

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as it came along but the policy is clear... Can you name a single

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defence contractor weather boss' salary is less than 20 times average

:14:24.:14:30.

earnings? We are not reducing, we have rolled that out as part of this

:14:31.:14:37.

fantastic plan to transform society to get rid of discrimination, to try

:14:38.:14:43.

and bring together our communities. We will introduce a pay ratio of one

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to 20. Fair enough, thank you very much.

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It's a month after the triggering of Article 50, and EU leaders -

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with the exception of Britain - met in Brussels this weekend

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to agree their opening negotiating stance, to get the divorce

:14:57.:14:58.

It is inside this psychedelic chamber where Britain's 'Grexit'

:14:59.:15:14.

future will be decided over the next two years, but there is a vast gulf

:15:15.:15:19.

in rhetoric coming from the UK and the EU. With parallel narratives

:15:20.:15:29.

emerging for both sides. There is broad agreement that an orderly

:15:30.:15:32.

withdrawal is in the interests of both sides. But Theresa May's

:15:33.:15:37.

position is that the terms of our future trade deal should be

:15:38.:15:41.

negotiated alongside the terms of our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says

:15:42.:15:45.

the terms of the UK's exit must be decided before any discussion on a

:15:46.:15:52.

future trade deal can begin. But don't forget that divorce

:15:53.:15:55.

settlement. Don't remind me. In Brussels, many think written should

:15:56.:16:00.

pay even more, while in the UK ministers said the divorce bill

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should be capped at 3 billion. After you. Thank you.

:16:04.:16:09.

For are you looking forward to it? Isn't that divorce bill a bit high?

:16:10.:16:19.

Isn't this about punishing Britain? We are very united, you all seem so

:16:20.:16:25.

surprised but it's a fact. How soon can we get a deal? We have to wait

:16:26.:16:32.

for the elections. It was the decision of Mrs May. It took over an

:16:33.:16:37.

hour for the leaders to make their entrances but once inside it's just

:16:38.:16:41.

a few minutes to agree the negotiating guidelines. They set out

:16:42.:16:46.

three main areas. The first phase of talks on the divorce settlement will

:16:47.:16:50.

deal with the existing financial commitments to the EU, the Northern

:16:51.:16:54.

Ireland border and the rights of EU citizens in the UK. They said a UK

:16:55.:16:58.

trade agreement can be discussed when the first phase of talks

:16:59.:17:03.

reaches significant progress. And that there must be unity in the

:17:04.:17:07.

negotiations, that individual EU members won't negotiate separately

:17:08.:17:14.

with the UK. They are quite good here at negotiating because they are

:17:15.:17:18.

used to it. They set a maximum and then they have to recede a little

:17:19.:17:22.

bit depending on what the other side is prepared to offer. I think there

:17:23.:17:28.

is room for manoeuvre in some issues, but I don't think some of

:17:29.:17:31.

the baseline things will change that much. For example I don't think the

:17:32.:17:37.

European Union will concede on the rights of citizens who are already

:17:38.:17:42.

in the UK. It will be very difficult for them to accept that they will

:17:43.:17:48.

not be any exit bill, and the question of Northern Ireland is very

:17:49.:17:51.

important as well, the hard order question. The baseline things are

:17:52.:17:55.

not going to move that much, then you have room for manoeuvring

:17:56.:18:00.

between. On security, defence and the fight against terrorism, the

:18:01.:18:04.

guidelines said the EU stands ready to work together. And after lunch,

:18:05.:18:08.

friendly signs from some EU leaders as they gave individual press

:18:09.:18:13.

conferences. Paul and said the talks should open doors to new

:18:14.:18:16.

opportunities and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had

:18:17.:18:23.

earlier said some in Britain were deluded about Brexit, softened her

:18:24.:18:26.

tone saying there was no conspiracy against the UK. Unity was the

:18:27.:18:30.

buzzword at this summit and for once everybody seemed to be sticking to

:18:31.:18:36.

the script. That unity is not only amongst the 27 states, it's also

:18:37.:18:39.

among the institutions so many of the divisions we have seen in the

:18:40.:18:45.

past at European level do not exist. That is very important and it's not

:18:46.:18:49.

be unity that is directed somehow against the UK because I think we

:18:50.:18:53.

all want this to be an orderly process and part of that is that the

:18:54.:19:06.

EU side is unified. So although there are no surprises here, what

:19:07.:19:09.

took place in this room was a significant step towards the real

:19:10.:19:13.

Brexit negotiations which will begin soon after the general election in

:19:14.:19:18.

June, said to be the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes.

:19:19.:19:22.

Isabel, Steve and Tom are still with me.

:19:23.:19:28.

Isabel, doesn't the British media have to be a bit careful here? We

:19:29.:19:36.

would never take at face value anything a British politician tells

:19:37.:19:40.

us. We would question it, put it in context and wonder if they are

:19:41.:19:44.

bluffing, but we seem to take at face value anything a European

:19:45.:19:48.

politician says about these negotiations. You only have to look

:19:49.:19:53.

at the front page of the Sunday Times today to see that. They quoted

:19:54.:19:57.

at length Juncker, who didn't like the food at the reception and this

:19:58.:20:02.

and that, and I think the mood is very optimistic. The key thing is

:20:03.:20:06.

the EU trade Commissioner has said we will get a free trade deal and a

:20:07.:20:12.

lot of people seem to be wilfully ignoring that incredibly big

:20:13.:20:15.

concession. That is what will happen in their view. Everything that is

:20:16.:20:21.

said at the moment needs a slight rerun over. They are all in

:20:22.:20:26.

negotiating positions, plus we seem to be completely unaware that they

:20:27.:20:29.

all have their own domestic constituencies as well. Angela

:20:30.:20:35.

Merkel has an important election coming up in September,

:20:36.:20:38.

Euroscepticism is quite different from Britain of course, but there's

:20:39.:20:42.

a different kind of euro scepticism in Germany, she has got to deal with

:20:43.:20:46.

that. Of course she has, which is why you are right, nothing should be

:20:47.:20:50.

taken too seriously out of the mouths of British politicians or

:20:51.:20:56.

European politicians until October this year. We have got to wait for

:20:57.:21:01.

the French elections, then German elections, and if you look through

:21:02.:21:05.

this you can see a way forward. There's no trade talks until pay up,

:21:06.:21:10.

but what was actually written was no trade talks until we make

:21:11.:21:14.

significant progress on the money. You can define significant progress

:21:15.:21:18.

in a lot of ways but come December, fireworks over the summer, we all

:21:19.:21:24.

get very excited about it, in these chairs I'm sure, come December

:21:25.:21:28.

things will look a lot smoother. The German elections are at the end of

:21:29.:21:32.

September but I've seen reports in German press, depending how it goes

:21:33.:21:35.

it could take until Christmas before a new coalition government is put

:21:36.:21:42.

together. The Brussels long-standing negotiating tactic of nothing is

:21:43.:21:45.

agreed until everything is agreed, then I guess the British could say

:21:46.:21:50.

we agree a certain sum of money if that's what it takes but that

:21:51.:21:54.

depends on them, what good trade deal we get. If we don't get that,

:21:55.:22:00.

the sum of money is off the table. In that sense, the two are going

:22:01.:22:05.

parallel. However, I wouldn't entirely dismiss what people are

:22:06.:22:09.

saying in their pre-election periods to their own electorates because

:22:10.:22:15.

they have to some extent to deliver subsequently. Of course Angela

:22:16.:22:19.

Merkel is campaigning and electioneering, who wouldn't, she

:22:20.:22:23.

has a tough election to fight, but she is measured and thoughtful and

:22:24.:22:27.

when she says things like some of the British are delusional, that is

:22:28.:22:31.

unusually strong language for her. What was she referring to? I don't

:22:32.:22:38.

know, it wasn't specific. Have the cake and eat it perhaps the

:22:39.:22:42.

sequencing the British don't want. When they thought the British

:22:43.:22:46.

government was going to effectively demand membership of the single

:22:47.:22:49.

market, that's not going to happen now. Unless you sign up to the four

:22:50.:22:57.

pillars, that's the cake and eat it proposition, which they are right in

:22:58.:23:02.

saying Theresa May has made. But everybody has access, even with no

:23:03.:23:07.

deal you have access. The other side of it is I think there will be a

:23:08.:23:17.

united position from them. And so, as somebody pointed out in that

:23:18.:23:23.

report, they are experienced, tough negotiators, so I don't think it

:23:24.:23:30.

will be quite as easy as some think. I spoke to one of those who drew up

:23:31.:23:36.

Article 50 and they said to me they deliberately put this two year

:23:37.:23:39.

timetable in to make it impossible for anybody to think about leaving.

:23:40.:23:46.

This is really tight, this negotiation. Easy, it isn't.

:23:47.:23:49.

This coming Thursday, voters up and down the country

:23:50.:23:52.

will be going to the polls in this year's local elections.

:23:53.:23:54.

Over the past few weeks I've interviewed representatives

:23:55.:23:56.

of the Conservative Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,

:23:57.:23:58.

Today it's the turn of Plaid Cymru and the SNP.

:23:59.:24:02.

A little earlier I spoke Alex Salmond, who until 2014

:24:03.:24:04.

I started by asking him why Scots should vote SNP in local elections

:24:05.:24:08.

when the Scottish Government had just cut central Government funding

:24:09.:24:11.

It's actually a funding increase going into Scottish councils this

:24:12.:24:27.

year, and if you look at the funding position for example between

:24:28.:24:30.

Scottish councils and those in England, which are obviously

:24:31.:24:34.

directly related through the Barnett formula, the funding in Scotland has

:24:35.:24:37.

been incomparably better than that in England so there's a whole range

:24:38.:24:48.

of the -- of reasons... What's happening south of the border

:24:49.:24:51.

indicates the protection the Scottish Parliament has been able to

:24:52.:24:55.

put in that helps vital services in Scotland. But there hasn't been a

:24:56.:25:00.

funding increase, the block grant from Westminster to Edinburgh was

:25:01.:25:04.

increased by 1.5% in real terms but the grant to councils was cut by

:25:05.:25:11.

2.6%. It was going to be a cut of 330 million, the Greens got you to

:25:12.:25:16.

reduce it to 170 million but it is still a cut of 2.6%. Your own

:25:17.:25:26.

Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut to 391 million. You have cut the

:25:27.:25:31.

money to councils. Yes, but councils have available to them more

:25:32.:25:34.

resources this year, and as you say the budget increased that further

:25:35.:25:40.

which is why we put forward an excellent local government budget in

:25:41.:25:43.

Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off...

:25:44.:25:49.

You asked me about Aberdeenshire, and Aberdeenshire has put forward a

:25:50.:25:53.

budget for investment expansion and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3

:25:54.:25:59.

million off the education budget, and I'm very grateful you have given

:26:00.:26:02.

me the opportunity to make that point. The Government in Edinburgh

:26:03.:26:08.

has cut the money to Aberdeenshire by ?11 million. It is a cut. But

:26:09.:26:14.

there is an investment budget in Aberdeenshire that has been made

:26:15.:26:18.

available by the ability to increase the council tax by 2.5% after a

:26:19.:26:23.

nine-year freeze in Scotland, and that has brought more resources into

:26:24.:26:27.

local government and that's why the butchered in Aberdeenshire has been

:26:28.:26:31.

an investment budget including protection of the education budget

:26:32.:26:36.

in the face of a Tory and liberal attempt to cut bit. You have to

:26:37.:26:40.

compare what is happening in Scotland and England, and there's no

:26:41.:26:43.

doubt Scottish local authorities have been much better funded than

:26:44.:26:49.

those in England over the last few years and that's been the ability of

:26:50.:26:52.

the Scottish Government to protect the services at local level. A good

:26:53.:26:57.

reason for voting SNP. If they have been so well funded, why after a

:26:58.:27:03.

decade of SNP rule do one in five Scottish pupils leave primary school

:27:04.:27:11.

functionally illiterate? You have got to take these things... Nicola

:27:12.:27:15.

Sturgeon has made it a top priority to address these challenges but

:27:16.:27:20.

let's take another statistic. 93% of Scottish kids are now emerging from

:27:21.:27:24.

school to positive destinations, that means to further education,

:27:25.:27:31.

apprenticeships or work. Why are one in five functionally illiterate? You

:27:32.:27:37.

argue one statistic, I'm arguing Scottish education is putting in

:27:38.:27:41.

some substantially good performances like the 93% going on to positive

:27:42.:27:47.

destinations. You can't have a failing education system if you have

:27:48.:27:52.

got that 93%, and incidentally a record low youth unemployment in

:27:53.:27:55.

Scotland without the second lowest unemployment rate in Europe. These

:27:56.:28:00.

pupils are being prepared by the Scottish education system. Let's

:28:01.:28:05.

take the figures in the round on education. It's so important. Under

:28:06.:28:09.

your watch, under your government, the Scottish schools in the most

:28:10.:28:15.

important global comparison have fallen from tenth to 19th in

:28:16.:28:25.

science, and 11 to 24th in maths, that is a record of decline and

:28:26.:28:32.

failure. That is by the OECD and first questions about that, but the

:28:33.:28:37.

OECD has also described Scotland is one of the best educated societies

:28:38.:28:42.

in the world. That was from the school system in previous years gone

:28:43.:28:47.

by. For those who are currently in Scottish schools, you have fallen

:28:48.:28:53.

from 11th to 24th in mathematics. The OECD was commenting on

:28:54.:28:56.

introduction of the new curriculum for excellence in which they have

:28:57.:29:01.

given a resounding thumbs up to it, and that's the same source as the

:29:02.:29:06.

rankings which you are comparing. Nicola Sturgeon has said there are

:29:07.:29:10.

challenges on Scottish education, particularly the access through the

:29:11.:29:13.

education system and the attainment gap but don't tell me it's failing

:29:14.:29:18.

when 55% of our pupils have gone on to higher education. That's one of

:29:19.:29:21.

the most impressive figures in the world. Why have you cut 4000

:29:22.:29:28.

teachers? The pupil numbers in Scotland have been falling over

:29:29.:29:32.

recent years as well and now of course we are increasing the number

:29:33.:29:35.

of people going through teachers training so we can make sure that

:29:36.:29:40.

number increases, but listen, the Scottish Government and Scottish

:29:41.:29:44.

Parliament, as you very well know, are subject to real terms spending

:29:45.:29:49.

cuts over the last few years and all public services have been under

:29:50.:29:52.

pressure. The main reason in terms of teacher numbers has been an

:29:53.:29:56.

attempt on the Scottish Government to protect the teacher pupil ratio,

:29:57.:30:00.

and that will now be enhanced by a further taker -- intake. You

:30:01.:30:08.

promised you would reduce primary class sizes to 18 and instead they

:30:09.:30:14.

are now 23.5 and rising. You broke that promise. You didn't mention

:30:15.:30:20.

where we started from. We have kept the teacher pupil ratio very solid

:30:21.:30:24.

in Scotland and that's been against a range of public expenditure cuts

:30:25.:30:29.

but the new intake of teachers into the new teacher training in Scotland

:30:30.:30:30.

I think will enhance the system. You have spent in the pasty in

:30:31.:30:41.

Hollywood 43 hours on Government time debating independence. How many

:30:42.:30:46.

hours have you debated education on Government time? I don't have that

:30:47.:30:51.

they get a hand... The answer is zero, you have spent zero-hours

:30:52.:30:55.

debating education on Government time. Isn't it time the SNP got back

:30:56.:31:01.

to concentrating on the day job? Andrew, as you very well know Nicola

:31:02.:31:05.

Sturgeon has identified a key priority, closing the attainment gap

:31:06.:31:09.

in Scottish education. That is exactly what she has done. Let me

:31:10.:31:14.

answer the question, it is difficult to be in a remote location, if you

:31:15.:31:20.

talk before I answer the question then the view was will not be able

:31:21.:31:26.

to listen. I let you answer that without saying a word. Is this

:31:27.:31:31.

general election about independence, as you say it is, or not about

:31:32.:31:35.

independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says it is? No, I have said exactly the

:31:36.:31:41.

same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The issue what independence will be

:31:42.:31:45.

decided in a national referendum of the Scottish people. The mandate for

:31:46.:31:50.

that referendum was gained in last year's Scottish elections. What this

:31:51.:31:54.

election is about is backing the right of the Scottish parliament to

:31:55.:31:57.

exercise that mandate and also providing real opposition to this

:31:58.:32:00.

Tory Government and allowing the Scottish Parliament to reverse

:32:01.:32:05.

austerity and some of the public expenditure cutbacks you have been

:32:06.:32:09.

talking about, that is what this is about, backing our Scottish

:32:10.:32:10.

Parliament. Alex Salmond, speaking

:32:11.:32:12.

to me earlier. I'm now joined by the leader

:32:13.:32:13.

of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. You accuse the Government of wanting

:32:14.:32:20.

an extreme Brexit, those are your words. What is the difference

:32:21.:32:25.

between hard Brexit and extreme Brexit? My concern is the way in

:32:26.:32:29.

which we leave the European Union could be very damaging to Wales if,

:32:30.:32:33.

for example, there are tariffs introduced then that would have a

:32:34.:32:37.

real impact in terms of Welsh jobs, and I want to make sure that we have

:32:38.:32:44.

a Brexit that doesn't cause the damage to Wales that could be

:32:45.:32:47.

caused. But what is the difference between extreme and hard? Anything

:32:48.:32:53.

that puts Welsh jobs at risk is either extreme or hard and

:32:54.:32:56.

unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we will do what we can to protect those

:32:57.:33:00.

jobs. You want Wales to remain a member of the single market even if

:33:01.:33:05.

the UK isn't, which would mean Wales having to accept the free movement

:33:06.:33:09.

of people, still being under the jurisdiction of the European Court,

:33:10.:33:21.

and you also want to stay in the customs union which means you could

:33:22.:33:24.

not do your own free trade deals. What is the difference between that

:33:25.:33:26.

and being a member of the European Union? We would be like Norway,

:33:27.:33:28.

outside the European Union and inside the single market. The key

:33:29.:33:31.

question is the issue of jobs and the ability to continue to trade.

:33:32.:33:35.

Wales exports, we are the biggest exporter in the whole of the UK, so

:33:36.:33:40.

there are many jobs reliant upon those goods being able to be sold to

:33:41.:33:48.

the single market. Is it central to the UK? Out of the four countries

:33:49.:33:54.

that make up the UK... Proportionally, yes. If you remain

:33:55.:34:01.

in the single market, it is hard to see how Wales could stay in the

:34:02.:34:05.

single market if the UK -- when the rest of the UK was not, you cite

:34:06.:34:10.

Norway, that has free movement, it has to be said, it effectively have

:34:11.:34:15.

to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court, it is not in the

:34:16.:34:19.

customs union so it can do some of its own free trade deals, but the

:34:20.:34:27.

Welsh people voted to leave. We have to accept the principle of free

:34:28.:34:31.

movement if there is not going to be a hard border between the north and

:34:32.:34:35.

south of Ireland. There is going to be free movement within Ireland and

:34:36.:34:39.

therefore freedom of movement, as we said in the referendum campaign,

:34:40.:34:45.

would be very, very difficult to rule out. You lost that campaign, as

:34:46.:34:50.

you know, Wales voted to leave, 17 Council areas voted to leave, only

:34:51.:34:56.

five voted to remain. Doesn't it explain why your party is going

:34:57.:35:01.

nowhere? A majority in Wales voted to leave but you effectively want to

:35:02.:35:07.

support that and de facto remain in the EU? I don't accept that, we

:35:08.:35:11.

accepted the result but Plaid Cymru now is about defending Wales. There

:35:12.:35:17.

are so many risks facing our people from the jobs perspective, the

:35:18.:35:21.

privatisation perspective, the cuts perspective, and from the fact that

:35:22.:35:25.

the Tories would like to grab power was back from our National Assembly,

:35:26.:35:30.

so the key point... If you look at the Wales bill that went through

:35:31.:35:33.

recently, the list of reserved powers there suggests there are some

:35:34.:35:37.

powers currently within the Welsh Assembly jurisdiction that would be

:35:38.:35:44.

dragged back. Which power was will Westminster take back? They could

:35:45.:35:48.

take powers back over the NHS, for example. There is no indication they

:35:49.:35:55.

want to do that. The Tories have attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my

:35:56.:36:04.

point! Quite viciously. If they increase their mandate, I wouldn't

:36:05.:36:07.

put it past them to try to take power was back over the NHS and then

:36:08.:36:12.

of course we risk our NHS being privatised though this election is

:36:13.:36:17.

all about defending Wales, protecting Welsh people from further

:36:18.:36:19.

all about defending Wales, privatisation and cuts and a power

:36:20.:36:23.

grab from the Tories. Why is there never a breakthrough for your party,

:36:24.:36:27.

Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in Wales for years, the Tories do quite

:36:28.:36:31.

well, Ukip had a surge for a while, it looks like the Tories will have

:36:32.:36:35.

another surge, never you, always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait

:36:36.:36:40.

until Thursday and I think you will see that in many parts of Wales we

:36:41.:36:43.

will increase our representation at a local council level. In the

:36:44.:36:50.

Rhondda, where I am assembly member, we are looking to increase our

:36:51.:36:55.

representation... You are only 13% in the polls will stop which is half

:36:56.:37:03.

of even the Tories in Wales! If you don't breakthrough in the selection,

:37:04.:37:09.

if the real problem is going nowhere, do you think you will pack

:37:10.:37:14.

it in? Robert Green not, I have a job to do, a vision of Wales which

:37:15.:37:19.

is about building up our nation and standing on our own two feet and my

:37:20.:37:23.

job is not done yet. Thank you for being with us as part of your job,

:37:24.:37:24.

we will see how it goes on Thursday. It's just gone 11.35,

:37:25.:37:28.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:29.:37:31.

in Scotland who leave us now Good morning and welcome

:37:32.:37:37.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. Is fish the SNP's Brexit battle

:37:38.:37:38.

ground, after two SNP MPs sign a pledge not to rejoin

:37:39.:37:45.

the commons fishing policy? Will changes to the way

:37:46.:37:51.

polls are carried out And campaigns for tactical

:37:52.:37:53.

voting are springing up, but how successful will

:37:54.:37:57.

they be in Scotland? The SNP's political opponents

:37:58.:38:04.

are questioning the party's position on Europe after it emerged that two

:38:05.:38:07.

SNP MPs have signed a pledge to protect Scottish fisherman

:38:08.:38:11.

by keeping Scotland out But the Scottish Conservatives

:38:12.:38:14.

claim that's incompatible with the SNP's desire to stay

:38:15.:38:18.

in the European Union. In a moment i'll be speaking

:38:19.:38:22.

to the two sides in the argument. Jews Colin's fishing industry says

:38:23.:38:39.

it is gasping for support. But now the sector's leaders say they have

:38:40.:38:43.

landed a solution, Brexit. When the UK leaves the EU it will also say

:38:44.:38:49.

goodbye to the Common Fisheries Policy which regulates how many fish

:38:50.:38:55.

can be caught and crucially allows a European abode in the Scottish

:38:56.:39:01.

waters. It is one of the reasons why a part of the north-east, like here

:39:02.:39:07.

in Peterhead, favoured Alt in the European referendum, but the

:39:08.:39:11.

Scottish fishing fleet continues to decline. 15 fewer vessels between

:39:12.:39:17.

2014 and 2015, and since 1970 deployment on those vessels has

:39:18.:39:23.

fallen by 49%. The industry blames foreign vessels, and cannot wait for

:39:24.:39:26.

the chance to make Scotland's what is excluded. Scottish Government is

:39:27.:39:33.

committed to staying in the EU, which means being bound by the

:39:34.:39:39.

Common Fisheries Policy. Yet this week, to SNP MPs, including Eilidh

:39:40.:39:44.

Whiteford, appeared to swim against the tide, signing a pledge to pitch

:39:45.:39:53.

the CFP. You cannot reform that part of the CFP. It gets refund every ten

:39:54.:39:58.

years, it has just happened, and it is unfair to ours, the common access

:39:59.:40:03.

of everyone, will not be reformed. The only way is to be out of that,

:40:04.:40:10.

that is just an absolute fact. 60% of the fish and shellfish leaving

:40:11.:40:18.

our waters do so any hands of non-UK EU member states. 60%. That is

:40:19.:40:23.

because of common access. Do we go to France, Spain or Italy and pick

:40:24.:40:30.

6% of the graves and have a winemaking industry? Absurd. Of

:40:31.:40:33.

course not. There appears to be little room forming over on this

:40:34.:40:39.

issue. Membership of the Common Fisheries Policy comes with

:40:40.:40:43.

membership of the EU, to that extent, if Scotland is ever going to

:40:44.:40:47.

go back to the EU, then it would have to rejoin the Cartman 's

:40:48.:40:50.

fishery policy. What they have in mind perhaps is when the UK does get

:40:51.:40:57.

out of the EU, there's not any possibility that it would sign up to

:40:58.:41:01.

the Common Fisheries Policy from outside the EU. Getting to grips

:41:02.:41:05.

with this paradox will take Alves of political strength.

:41:06.:41:07.

Well, joining me now from Inverness is the SNP MP Drew Hendry,

:41:08.:41:10.

and from the Scottish Conservatives, Ross Thomson is in

:41:11.:41:12.

First of all, can you clear this up for us? When Eilidh Whiteford at

:41:13.:41:27.

side of this pledge saying not to join the Common Fisheries Policy,

:41:28.:41:32.

are they giving against SNP policy? That the correct you, I did not sign

:41:33.:41:36.

up to this pledge, but what I would say... I'm saying that when Eilidh

:41:37.:41:42.

Whiteford and Mike Weir... I would say that the SNP are the only party

:41:43.:41:48.

that consistently in all three parliaments supported and protected

:41:49.:41:51.

wherever we can the Scottish fishing industry, and we have always been...

:41:52.:41:55.

Let me finish. We have all been industry, and we have always been...

:41:56.:41:59.

consistent about the Common Fisheries Policy does not work for

:42:00.:42:01.

the efficient immunity of Scotland, and we have said that it should be

:42:02.:42:04.

scrapped or substantially reformed. That remains our position. So it is

:42:05.:42:11.

scrapped or substantially reformed. SNP policy not to join the Common

:42:12.:42:15.

Fisheries Policy even in an independent Scotland? We've just

:42:16.:42:17.

said it should be scrapped or substantially reformed. Noes but you

:42:18.:42:23.

cannot join the EU unless you join the Common Fisheries Policy. What is

:42:24.:42:27.

key is the fact that when negotiations took place to join the

:42:28.:42:32.

EU, the UK Government on its own record to say that Scottish fishing

:42:33.:42:35.

was expendable. That is the stance that they took. But Scottish fishing

:42:36.:42:41.

being about 40% of the allowable EU catch, that is a substantial amount

:42:42.:42:47.

of the ability to negotiate much better deals, and the Tories have

:42:48.:42:50.

let down Scotland for all of this time. I don't understand what you're

:42:51.:42:56.

saying, you seem to agree with the stance that has been taken by Eilidh

:42:57.:42:59.

Whiteford and Mike Ware, but on this programme last Sunday against

:43:00.:43:03.

Robertson, who is from one of your MPs from the same area, said it was

:43:04.:43:11.

SNP policy to rejoin the EU as a full member and to rejoin the Common

:43:12.:43:15.

Fisheries Policy. It is policy to rejoin the EU,... As I said, the

:43:16.:43:24.

policy as it stands, the Common Fisheries Policy, it should be

:43:25.:43:28.

scrapped or substantially reformed. Why did Angus Robertson said was

:43:29.:43:30.

policy to rejoin the Common Fisheries Policy? It should be

:43:31.:43:35.

scrapped or substantially reformed in the form that it is in at the

:43:36.:43:40.

moment. What we need to do is not make the mistakes of the past. The

:43:41.:43:44.

Tories wrote off the Scottish cities in that I fishing industry. Ghosh

:43:45.:43:49.

when the Tories claim that the SNP is split on this issue, the IRA.

:43:50.:43:55.

Noes what you have just said has contradicted what Angus Robertson

:43:56.:44:02.

says. Rejoining the Common Fisheries Policy is the same thing at

:44:03.:44:06.

scrapping it? In the position of rejoining the EU, we would be in a

:44:07.:44:12.

position to renegotiate. This is 40% of the EU's allowable catch, we

:44:13.:44:16.

would be able to renegotiate a far better deal on fishing for Scottish

:44:17.:44:20.

fishermen. We should be concerned about Theresa Mayed only utterings

:44:21.:44:24.

on fishing which was to say that the Spanish fishermen would not want to

:44:25.:44:28.

lose out. Thatcher sent a chilling message. Ross Thomson, can you give

:44:29.:44:37.

as a guarantee that any Brexit negotiations, the Conservative

:44:38.:44:42.

Government in London will not in any way attempt to stay in rejoin the

:44:43.:44:49.

Common Fisheries Policy? I was with Theresa May just yesterday when I

:44:50.:44:52.

heard her state unequivocally that we will be coming out of the Common

:44:53.:44:59.

Fisheries Policy with Brexit. But I find interesting is that neither

:45:00.:45:02.

Eilidh Whiteford or might we are on your programme to justify their own

:45:03.:45:05.

position. The SNP have been trying to take the electorate for fools,

:45:06.:45:11.

try to face both ways. And we don't have them. Drew Hendry said that

:45:12.:45:16.

there is no contradiction because should an independent Scotland try

:45:17.:45:22.

to rejoin the EU, it would try to renegotiate the terms of the Common

:45:23.:45:25.

Fisheries Policy. That isn't really a contradiction, is it? You just

:45:26.:45:30.

heard in your package, Bertie Armstrong made it clear that from

:45:31.:45:37.

the perspective of fishermen, renegotiation is impossible. That is

:45:38.:45:41.

not the point, saying they are contradicting themselves, and I'm

:45:42.:45:43.

saying that if you take literally what Drew Hendry says, they are not

:45:44.:45:48.

contradicting themselves. They want to be within the EU, taking us to

:45:49.:45:51.

the brink of an independent referendum to ensure that we are

:45:52.:45:55.

within the EU, Michael the Common Fisheries Policy as part of a key

:45:56.:45:59.

part of the membership, but having time to the fishing community and

:46:00.:46:04.

saying no, we would be in the CFP, we very fond CFP. They are taking

:46:05.:46:05.

back control of 200 miles of fishery we very fond CFP. They are taking

:46:06.:46:09.

waters, our waters, where we can decide things on her own terms. That

:46:10.:46:16.

is what amenity wants. SNP MPs who signed that led voted not to trigger

:46:17.:46:20.

Article 50. The fishermen can see right through the SNP. They are not

:46:21.:46:25.

buying this. You are going to have become up with a unified position.

:46:26.:46:32.

Mike Weir is your Chief Whip. Interesting listening to Ross

:46:33.:46:33.

Thomson, what is a contradiction Interesting listening to Ross

:46:34.:46:36.

standing outside the Scottish Parliament with a banner saying that

:46:37.:46:39.

if you vote leave, powers will be returned to Scotland overfishing.

:46:40.:46:46.

Then they contradicted that when they said fishermen were wrong about

:46:47.:46:49.

that. Question after question, the UK Government minister said no

:46:50.:46:55.

powers would be returned to Scotland overfishing, they had been buffeted

:46:56.:46:56.

away, because they don't want to overfishing, they had been buffeted

:46:57.:47:01.

make that commitment. They want to trade away fishing rights. In a last

:47:02.:47:05.

attempt to get clarity, your position seems to be not quite Angus

:47:06.:47:11.

Robertson's position. Not Mike Weir and Eilidh Whiteford's position, you

:47:12.:47:14.

say that an independent Scotland would rejoin the EU but you would

:47:15.:47:18.

try to need renegotiate the Common Fisheries Policy. If you didn't

:47:19.:47:24.

manage that coming to rejoin anyway. And I understand it rightly? It

:47:25.:47:28.

makes complete sense that if Scotland had it in a position to

:47:29.:47:32.

renegotiate for membership of the EU, when you're looking at the fact

:47:33.:47:36.

we have 40% of the allowable catch in EU waters, that means that

:47:37.:47:40.

Scotland could get a much better deal than the horrendous situation

:47:41.:47:42.

that has been faced by Scottish fishing since the Tories sold out on

:47:43.:47:51.

this to the EU when they signed up saying that Scottish fishing was

:47:52.:47:54.

expendable. You will hear nothing from the Tories to say that they

:47:55.:47:59.

still believe Scottish fishing is important, and what we are saying is

:48:00.:48:02.

there is an indication they are preparing to use it as none other

:48:03.:48:07.

bargaining chip. Ross Thomson, you were scoffing, why? It is

:48:08.:48:13.

extraordinary to hear an SNP politician who are taking us to the

:48:14.:48:15.

brink of an independence referendum to ensure we out within the U,

:48:16.:48:21.

trying to say it is the Tories want a sell-out fishermen, when it is

:48:22.:48:23.

trying to say it is the Tories want SNP who are trying to drag them back

:48:24.:48:25.

into the EU against their expressed the will. They do not trust the SNP.

:48:26.:48:32.

They have expressed their will on the 23rd of June to leave the EU, to

:48:33.:48:36.

have powers back of their own fishing waters, that is something

:48:37.:48:42.

they are excited about. We have to leave it there. To be continued.

:48:43.:48:45.

The opinion polls didn't quite predict the outcome

:48:46.:48:47.

of the 2015 general election, to put it mildly.

:48:48.:48:49.

Since then, polling companies have been working on ways

:48:50.:48:51.

The polling company YouGov says it tried new methods at last year's

:48:52.:48:55.

Scottish Parliament election, and it's now using these

:48:56.:48:57.

Joe Twyman is from YouGov and joins me now.

:48:58.:49:05.

These new methods, as I understand it, they involve who you select to

:49:06.:49:17.

clock to. It is a combination of two things, selecting who it is we get

:49:18.:49:23.

to take part in our survey is drawn from our panel of respondents, and

:49:24.:49:26.

previously we have always lived at age and gender and region, but we

:49:27.:49:32.

also now incorporated elements of interest in politics and also

:49:33.:49:36.

education, which was such an important social cleavage in a way

:49:37.:49:41.

that society divides around the EU referendum, plus we have general

:49:42.:49:44.

election vote and also in the case in Scotland, in the independent

:49:45.:49:48.

vote. We incorporate all of that into the wee bee select people, but

:49:49.:49:52.

the other element is a matter of recruitment. We spent a matter that

:49:53.:49:57.

back hundreds of thousands of pounds going out across Britain to find

:49:58.:50:02.

people to sign up to take part in our surveys, they sign up to our

:50:03.:50:04.

panel and be pay them to take part. It is a combination of those things

:50:05.:50:07.

that we hope will deliver more accuracy.

:50:08.:50:10.

So what was the problem before? The people you were recruiting to your

:50:11.:50:20.

panel, that you test ideas on, were too politically committed, was that

:50:21.:50:24.

it, or too biased one way or the other? It is slightly more

:50:25.:50:29.

complicated. We recruit people to our panel and then from the panel to

:50:30.:50:34.

take part in specific surveys, and the people we were recruiting were

:50:35.:50:37.

not entirely representative of the nation when it came to things like

:50:38.:50:42.

political interests, so we did have, for instance, younger people who

:50:43.:50:47.

were not engaged. They were in the samples but not in sufficient

:50:48.:50:52.

numbers. What that meant was that, yes, Bay was a miss in 2015, and

:50:53.:50:57.

while it wasn't substantial, in fact the average error in polls in 2015

:50:58.:51:03.

was only 3.3%. But it was large enough to make a big difference. All

:51:04.:51:11.

polls, no matter how perfect, are subject to the margin of error, that

:51:12.:51:15.

is probability and we can do nothing about that. Plus there are only a

:51:16.:51:19.

snapshot of public opinion at the time. But we hope by incorporating

:51:20.:51:25.

these things we will do better this time round. The problem last time

:51:26.:51:30.

was overestimated Labour, wasn't it? Are you confident that you have

:51:31.:51:33.

corrected that and how have you gone about doing it? In the case of, for

:51:34.:51:39.

instance, younger politically disengaged people, because they were

:51:40.:51:44.

not sufficiently represented, they were replaced by younger politically

:51:45.:51:47.

engaged people who generally favoured labour, so by evening out

:51:48.:51:52.

those numbers we think we are in a better place. We test these things

:51:53.:51:57.

internally consistently. Not just nationally but with things like

:51:58.:52:02.

Jeremy Corbyn's leadership election. More generally we have things like

:52:03.:52:04.

the London mayoral elections where More generally we have things like

:52:05.:52:08.

we correctly predicted not just Labour but the Conservative sharers

:52:09.:52:13.

well, so we think we are in a good place this time round, but June

:52:14.:52:16.

eight will obviously be the public test the pollsters look forward to.

:52:17.:52:22.

What is the danger from your point of view this time, what are you

:52:23.:52:27.

worried about? The danger is that as I say, all polls are subject to

:52:28.:52:31.

margin of error, so at any given point the true result may fall plus

:52:32.:52:37.

or minus two or 3% depending on the size of the sample, around a certain

:52:38.:52:42.

figure. In most recent polls we have the SNP on 41, which means they may

:52:43.:52:48.

be on 43 or 39. It doesn't mean they are on 20. So firstly there is

:52:49.:52:54.

movement within their and nothing we can do about it, and secondly, as

:52:55.:52:59.

time moves on, as the campaign passes, things may change

:53:00.:53:02.

significantly, and we will reflect that in our polls, but that doesn't

:53:03.:53:05.

mean that we are doing at the moment is wrong. Last point, a phenomenon

:53:06.:53:13.

which has been remarked on for some time now, shy Conservatives, people

:53:14.:53:16.

which has been remarked on for some who intend to vote conservative but

:53:17.:53:21.

are reluctant to say so to opinion pollsters. When you did this

:53:22.:53:26.

examination, is that a myth or not? It doesn't appear to be a strong

:53:27.:53:32.

case particularly in the case of online research, because of course

:53:33.:53:36.

there you are speaking to a computer and there is much evidence to

:53:37.:53:42.

suggest people are more honest and upfront when talking to a computer.

:53:43.:53:47.

But of course the ultimate problem about how this relates to

:53:48.:53:50.

difficulties is that even once we get the percentage of the vote

:53:51.:53:55.

correct, then how that translates to the 59 seats in Scotland and who

:53:56.:54:01.

wins and loses in each individual constituency, that is extremely

:54:02.:54:05.

difficult to model and makes our job very difficult. Joe Twyman, thanks

:54:06.:54:06.

very much. This week, Parliament is dissolved

:54:07.:54:08.

ahead of the general election. There's much talk of the contrasting

:54:09.:54:11.

fortunes of two parties, Well, I'm joined in Glasgow

:54:12.:54:13.

by Lord Campbell from the Lib Dems, and from Edinburgh by

:54:14.:54:17.

Lord Foulkes from Labour. George Twyman, given the polls I

:54:18.:54:33.

imagine you are going to tell us Jeremy Corbyn is going to win. As

:54:34.:54:37.

you just heard from Mr Twyman, polls are a snapshot and they don't make

:54:38.:54:43.

predictions. He is wise to say that because many of your colleagues are

:54:44.:54:49.

writing off Labour and saying a Conservative government is

:54:50.:54:49.

inevitable, which is a very unwise Conservative government is

:54:50.:54:54.

thing to do. I don't know a few wide to -- old enough to remember the

:54:55.:55:01.

1970 election. The last poll showed Labour, Harold Wilson, ahead by 12%,

:55:02.:55:06.

and they were going to win the election and even west Edinburgh. Do

:55:07.:55:13.

you remember the result? Yes. The Conservatives had a majority of 30.

:55:14.:55:17.

So be very careful making predictions from snapshot polls. I

:55:18.:55:23.

am not making predictions and sadly I do remember the 1970 general

:55:24.:55:31.

election! This is a Westminster general election, that's important,

:55:32.:55:35.

the choice will be between Labour government, caring compassionate

:55:36.:55:38.

Labour government or an increasingly harsh Tory government, and that is

:55:39.:55:41.

the choice facing the people of Scotland. One of the issues Labour

:55:42.:55:47.

has, one of many issues, is that the election in the UK as a whole could

:55:48.:55:52.

well be about Brexit, and up here it could be about another independence

:55:53.:55:56.

referendum. These are two areas Labour would much prefer the

:55:57.:55:59.

election was not about. I think that's what the SNP and the Tories

:56:00.:56:04.

wanted to be about, they want a contest in Scotland between the SNP

:56:05.:56:08.

and the Tories and it will not be that. I don't know if you saw the

:56:09.:56:11.

interview on the Andrew Marr programme this morning but Theresa

:56:12.:56:20.

May, in spite of trying to get onto Brexit and the health service and

:56:21.:56:25.

could not deal with questions about nurses in England and Scotland as

:56:26.:56:29.

well, having to go to food banks because of the low pay. We are going

:56:30.:56:35.

to have concentrations on low pay, zero hours contracts, which have

:56:36.:56:39.

just been the subject today, these will emerge as the issues

:56:40.:56:45.

irrespective of the mantra that Mrs may have been given by Lynton

:56:46.:56:53.

Crosby, that American strategist. Menzies Campbell, you would like it

:56:54.:56:58.

to be about Brexit, wouldn't you? Be in no doubt whatsoever it will be

:56:59.:57:03.

about Brexit. The last part of that interview was taken up with

:57:04.:57:05.

discussing what attitude the 27 members of the EU struck yesterday

:57:06.:57:11.

when they had their meeting to approve the terms of negotiations.

:57:12.:57:16.

But doesn't George Foulkes have a point, when it comes down to brass

:57:17.:57:23.

tacks, all the polls before the EU referendum showed the priority of

:57:24.:57:27.

Europe was way down, and will that not reassert itself in this campaign

:57:28.:57:31.

and what people care about is their standard of living, the NHS and

:57:32.:57:35.

schools? Of course, and that is true North and south of Scotland, but

:57:36.:57:40.

remember we have had a referendum, we have had a government which has

:57:41.:57:43.

made it very clear that its purpose is to come out whatever the

:57:44.:57:50.

circumstances and we know from the speech Mrs may made outside number

:57:51.:57:55.

ten, about the country coming together and politics being

:57:56.:57:59.

divisive, the truth is, the country is very divisive in relation to that

:58:00.:58:03.

result, and the consequence is that it will be about... It may well be

:58:04.:58:09.

about health and education as well... What's your response to the

:58:10.:58:13.

question I ask you, why is it vital that we have another referendum on

:58:14.:58:17.

Europe but forbidden we have another referendum on independence? The

:58:18.:58:24.

referendum on Europe simply said in or out, we don't know the terms. So

:58:25.:58:29.

did the independence referendum. We had a good idea because the SNP

:58:30.:58:34.

produced a 600 page document they said was their manifesto. Which

:58:35.:58:38.

people like you during the referendum campaign said lacked

:58:39.:58:40.

detail about issues like currency so you can hardly say that is the

:58:41.:58:45.

reason we cannot have another independence referendum. It had some

:58:46.:58:49.

detail, it said the price of oil would be $110 a barrel, that was not

:58:50.:58:54.

the case as it turned out. But we are in different circumstances. Some

:58:55.:58:59.

of the national papers speculate that people may go to law on the

:59:00.:59:05.

ground that the final decision requires being ratified by

:59:06.:59:12.

parliament. The point I am making is that, OK, health and education, but

:59:13.:59:17.

the SNP are saying, give us independence and we will resolve

:59:18.:59:22.

these. What the Conservatives say is, if we have a strong mandate,

:59:23.:59:25.

strong government, we will have a good deal in Europe and be more

:59:26.:59:29.

powerful and develop and be able to deal with all these things. It is

:59:30.:59:34.

inextricably tied up in Scotland and the rest of the UK. George Foulkes,

:59:35.:59:41.

would you like Labour to have a much clearer position on Brexit? Not

:59:42.:59:45.

necessarily the Lib Dem position that there should be another

:59:46.:59:49.

referendum, but something that, if you like, could be summed up in a

:59:50.:59:52.

sentence and told to the voters? We are making it clear, we have said EU

:59:53.:59:58.

citizens currently in the UK will be guaranteed that they can stay. The

:59:59.:00:01.

Labour government will do that on day one, give them that guarantee.

:00:02.:00:06.

We have also said that whatever deal is eventually agreed between

:00:07.:00:10.

ourselves and the other countries in Europe, will be for consideration by

:00:11.:00:13.

parliament and if necessary by a referendum but certainly by

:00:14.:00:17.

parliament, before it is approved. So you would like another

:00:18.:00:21.

referendum? No, that is a possibility. How a possibility?

:00:22.:00:26.

Preferably parliament would decide either whether it is appropriate...

:00:27.:00:32.

What happens parliament rejected? That is exactly the position, we

:00:33.:00:35.

revert to where we are at the moment. You have me really confused

:00:36.:00:40.

now, does that mean we just stay in the EU or have another referendum?

:00:41.:00:50.

It depends what the dealers anticipate what will happen. What I

:00:51.:00:53.

am saying is, if Parliament rejects the deal as you have said...

:00:54.:00:55.

Parliament doesn't need to either accept or reject, it can deliberate

:00:56.:00:59.

on it and consider it and asked the government to negotiate further. I

:01:00.:01:06.

think this becomes far too simplistic and far too compensated.

:01:07.:01:07.

You said a minute ago simplistic and far too compensated.

:01:08.:01:10.

should have the final day on the final deal, so I am asking what

:01:11.:01:14.

happens if Parliament says, do you know what, we don't like that? Then

:01:15.:01:20.

I think we revert to the status quo, we continue to be a member of the...

:01:21.:01:24.

We just stay in the EU, what's wrong with that, you would like that.

:01:25.:01:31.

Nothing wrong with that, it is a logical outcome. Why are you

:01:32.:01:35.

demanding another referendum? To determine whether the people of the

:01:36.:01:39.

UK are ready to come out and accepting the terms on which they

:01:40.:01:43.

come out. Let's be clear on this, your position relative to George

:01:44.:01:47.

Foulkes's, are you saying there would only be a referendum if

:01:48.:01:50.

Foulkes's, are you saying there Parliament rejects final deal? No,

:01:51.:01:54.

they would be a referendum to put it to the people of the UK whether or

:01:55.:01:56.

not they want to accept this deal. to the people of the UK whether or

:01:57.:02:07.

So even if Parliament accepted it there should be a referendum?

:02:08.:02:10.

Absolutely. And it would be on the final deal? Yes, and if you don't

:02:11.:02:13.

like the final deal, what's left? Remain. The way this campaign was

:02:14.:02:17.

conducted, it was all about... Boris Johnson, we can have our cake and

:02:18.:02:20.

eat it. It is obvious we can't do that. It was done on the basis that

:02:21.:02:24.

we could retain access to the single market, we can't do that, that is

:02:25.:02:28.

clear from what Mrs May now says is her position. One definite

:02:29.:02:33.

referendum in Europe and one possible. We will have to leave it

:02:34.:02:36.

there for the moment, thank you both very much.

:02:37.:02:38.

Is tactical voting making the most of your ballot,

:02:39.:02:40.

A lot of campaigns have been launched,

:02:41.:02:43.

trying to convince people to vote for this candidate to keep that

:02:44.:02:45.

crowd out or vote for another candidate to keep that crowd in.

:02:46.:02:48.

Peter Barnes is the BBC's senior elections and politlcal analyst

:02:49.:02:51.

Peter, some suffragists say yes, there might be tactical voting but

:02:52.:03:07.

they are dismissive of the likely importance. Is that your view? It is

:03:08.:03:10.

difficult to know what the impact will be. It is possible to overstate

:03:11.:03:15.

it. It is unlikely that tactical voting will affect the overall

:03:16.:03:18.

outcome of the election across the whole country, but in certain

:03:19.:03:22.

constituencies it is possible that if people chose choose to vote

:03:23.:03:27.

tactically, not for the first choice candidate but perhaps their second

:03:28.:03:31.

because they think they have a chance, in some places that might

:03:32.:03:36.

have an impact on the result. Where is this cross dressing going to be

:03:37.:03:39.

happening most, do you think? is this cross dressing going to be

:03:40.:03:46.

Presumably in areas where people who are Remainers might think, if they

:03:47.:03:49.

normally vote Conservative, if they vote Lib Dem they might get another

:03:50.:03:54.

referendum, is that it? I think Brexit is likely to be possibly the

:03:55.:03:58.

most important new factor influencing tactical voting across

:03:59.:04:01.

Britain, and in Scotland there is also the issue of independence were

:04:02.:04:06.

there could be tactical voting between Green and SNP voters, but in

:04:07.:04:09.

England and Wales in particular you might see tactical voting way you

:04:10.:04:14.

could voters decide to vote for a Conservative MP or even in some

:04:15.:04:20.

cases may be a Labour MP they think will deliver a strong Brexit,

:04:21.:04:23.

whereas on the other side the debate, some Green or Lib Dem voters

:04:24.:04:25.

or even Labour voters might choose to vote for a candidate that is not

:04:26.:04:31.

their first choice. Does this not just cancel itself out, or does it

:04:32.:04:35.

their first choice. Does this not depend on the constituency? It will

:04:36.:04:39.

depend on the constituency, really. There are some places where we know

:04:40.:04:44.

the Brexit vote was very strong, and others where it was not. In some

:04:45.:04:52.

remain constituencies for example, tactical voting is more likely to

:04:53.:04:58.

help the Liberal Democrats, perhaps, whereas in the Leave constituencies

:04:59.:05:01.

it is more likely to help the Conservatives, especially with a

:05:02.:05:07.

strongly pro-Brexit MP. George folks, I don't know if you could

:05:08.:05:11.

hear him, he was telling us he thought in the course of the

:05:12.:05:15.

campaign -- George Foulkes, it would be bred -- bread-and-butter issues

:05:16.:05:23.

that would dominate and Brexit would not be the main factor. I am curious

:05:24.:05:27.

as to whether that is your sense. There is this assumption even in

:05:28.:05:31.

what we were talking about a minute ago in tactical voting, that it is

:05:32.:05:35.

because Brexit is overwhelmingly important. What if it turns out it

:05:36.:05:40.

is important but actually it is not that important that it changes the

:05:41.:05:47.

way people vote? Can't be sure quite a lot of polls conducted asking

:05:48.:05:50.

people not just how they are intended to think their most

:05:51.:05:54.

important issues are, and they uniformly suggest that people think

:05:55.:05:57.

that Europe Brexit is the most important issue. The other issues

:05:58.:06:01.

are going to be imported also, and in some parts of the country it will

:06:02.:06:05.

be other bread and butter issues that dominate the campaign, but it

:06:06.:06:09.

is clear that Brexit is going to be a new dividing line that has not

:06:10.:06:14.

been such a big deal happier these elections. This time round it will.

:06:15.:06:20.

It will have some impact. We should be clear, as I understand that, the

:06:21.:06:25.

issue of Brexit or Europe in general has gone from nowhere in the opinion

:06:26.:06:31.

polls, when you ask people what is important, write to the top. It has,

:06:32.:06:36.

not the first time that has happened. Any run-up to the

:06:37.:06:38.

referendum last year, people also saying that Brexit or Europe where

:06:39.:06:43.

the most important issues, and that some previous years near European

:06:44.:06:45.

Parliament elections it has also been high up. Except at those

:06:46.:06:51.

moments, we have tended to see other issues at the top of opinion polls.

:06:52.:06:55.

We cannot say that those opinion polls are definitely right, while

:06:56.:07:00.

above may say that Brexit is the most important issue facing the

:07:01.:07:03.

country, it is not necessarily that which will affect how they vote.

:07:04.:07:08.

Google will vote on a range of different issues. Their perception

:07:09.:07:11.

of party leaders, their wider perception of the little parties.

:07:12.:07:13.

Thank you very much. This week i'm joined

:07:14.:07:14.

by the columnist Ruth Wishart and the political commentator David

:07:15.:07:23.

Torrance. Let's start with that issue of how

:07:24.:07:34.

important Europe is going to be, because the Liberal Democrat are

:07:35.:07:40.

staking a lot on the idea that this will dominate everything, and the

:07:41.:07:45.

SNP are staking a lot with their talk of a second independence

:07:46.:07:49.

referendum. Is it possible that people who wear Remainders, thought

:07:50.:07:56.

they wanted to remain, but it is not that important. It depends which

:07:57.:08:00.

part of the UK you are looking at. In England and Wales, there is a

:08:01.:08:05.

clear excellent dynamic, those who voted leave wanted to be delivered,

:08:06.:08:09.

and you see that manifesting itself in former Labour voters thinking

:08:10.:08:12.

about voting Conservative and of course they are helped in that by

:08:13.:08:16.

Jeremy Corbyn's leadership which is perceived as weak. In Scotland there

:08:17.:08:21.

is a different dynamic, it is much more around the prospect of a second

:08:22.:08:25.

independence referendum, which of course is bundled up with Brexit,

:08:26.:08:29.

although we continue to have a rather mixed messages from the SNP

:08:30.:08:35.

on precisely what the plan is. Or indeed whether this is the issue in

:08:36.:08:38.

the election. Nicola Sturgeon are saying it isn't,... When a snap

:08:39.:08:44.

election was first called, Nicola Sturgeon appeared to frame it in

:08:45.:08:49.

terms of a mandate and a second referendum, and after that they were

:08:50.:08:52.

a couple of polls showing the Conservatives doing better than they

:08:53.:08:56.

had in the past. She shifted and said it was more about a strong

:08:57.:08:59.

opposition and combating the Tories. What you make of this, Ruth, do you

:09:00.:09:05.

think this will be dominated up here by whether or not they should be

:09:06.:09:08.

another independence referendum? The Tories will certainly make it about

:09:09.:09:12.

that. I got a flyer from the Tories through the door the other day, not

:09:13.:09:17.

sure whether it was directed at the local general election. It basically

:09:18.:09:23.

said, no indyref, it over and over again. If you don't want one, vote

:09:24.:09:29.

for the Tories. And those of the electoral literature, both of them

:09:30.:09:34.

are dominated by no independence referendum, and I found that design

:09:35.:09:37.

terms of the local election, because whatever the general election will

:09:38.:09:40.

be about, the local elections are not about an independence

:09:41.:09:45.

referendum. I don't want to freak David Hart here, but curiously I

:09:46.:09:48.

agree with him about things being different on either side of the

:09:49.:09:51.

border. If you say the word referendum in England, it means

:09:52.:09:55.

Brexit, if you saved in Scotland, it means second indyref. Referenda

:09:56.:09:59.

don't have the same weight on either side of the border. Are you going to

:10:00.:10:06.

freak out? I like to think I'm a reasonable person, as is Ruth. What

:10:07.:10:12.

the Tories have done is effectively roll the local and general elections

:10:13.:10:17.

into one and it is encapsulated by a quite clever catchphrase.

:10:18.:10:21.

into one and it is encapsulated by a Curtis was telling us the other week

:10:22.:10:23.

into one and it is encapsulated by a at the local elections would be a

:10:24.:10:29.

good guide for the general election because... Polygamy any

:10:30.:10:32.

circumstances, people were probably just vote on party affiliation

:10:33.:10:35.

rather than anything else. They are being encouraged to do that by

:10:36.:10:39.

Conservatives. They have a slogan, we said no, be mentored. Because

:10:40.:10:46.

they are already campaigning and this goes for all parties, the

:10:47.:10:50.

general election actually started long before it was called by trees

:10:51.:10:54.

are made. It is difficult for the SNP, Ruth, because should they lose

:10:55.:10:59.

a view seats, the opposition parties will say, ha-ha, you don't have a

:11:00.:11:03.

mandate for another referendum. You can understand why Nicola Sturgeon

:11:04.:11:08.

partly, was to say I got that mandate, this is not about that. But

:11:09.:11:13.

it kind of is. The difficulty they have is that there is anything about

:11:14.:11:19.

election fatigue. You will have a lot of people who will fight the

:11:20.:11:22.

local elections then the general election, would be in any hurry to

:11:23.:11:27.

rush into a second referendum. Whatever Nicola Sturgeon timetable

:11:28.:11:33.

is. I says that both the Tories and Labour have run into the same

:11:34.:11:37.

difficulty which is, unless they decouple themselves from London,

:11:38.:11:43.

there was going to run into difficulties. We have Kezia Dugdale

:11:44.:11:46.

at odds with Jeremy Corbyn on various issues, Trident not least of

:11:47.:11:52.

them, and we have Ruth Davidson who was in desperate trouble last week

:11:53.:11:57.

over the rape laws. She cannot say that it is a bad clause, which it

:11:58.:12:02.

is, because she would embarrass her leader. Is that the case? The polls,

:12:03.:12:07.

is, because she would embarrass her some of which has been taken since,

:12:08.:12:18.

the troubled Ruth Davidson got into, have actually shown the Tories vote

:12:19.:12:22.

in Scotland rising. I think there is considerable gap between a bubble

:12:23.:12:27.

analysis which has the rate clause, that is not a comment on a policy,

:12:28.:12:29.

Trident, issues like that which I that is not a comment on a policy,

:12:30.:12:34.

hugely important to the chattering media classes and in debates in

:12:35.:12:38.

Parliament, and what real voters are archly thinking, and as you say,

:12:39.:12:43.

polls conducted since a considerable ongoing row about the rate clause

:12:44.:12:46.

and other issues show the Conservatives on between 20 -- 20

:12:47.:12:52.

and 33% of the vote. I'm not convinced that in electoral terms

:12:53.:12:57.

they are a huge trouble. Within political discourse, and the

:12:58.:13:01.

Scottish Parliament. These are not mutually screws of analyses. The

:13:02.:13:03.

Tory vote could be going up because of other factors, but the discussed

:13:04.:13:10.

at voter level over the rate clause is real. Talking about the SNP and

:13:11.:13:17.

Tories, if you were Labour, Ruth, what would you try to focus on in

:13:18.:13:21.

the selection? They are in danger of not being part of the debate. I BBC

:13:22.:13:29.

Jimmy Power of prayer. Budget cannot see any way for them? They are doing

:13:30.:13:36.

nationally in the polls. They have a big problem come out of the local

:13:37.:13:40.

elections, is this if they want to lose Glasgow. Guys like any hope for

:13:41.:13:44.

Labour in Scotland? No, they are now when the Scottish Tories were 20

:13:45.:13:48.

years ago. They don't have a voice in the debate. Noes

:13:49.:13:50.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:51.:13:55.

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