07/05/2017 Sunday Politics Scotland


07/05/2017

Andrew Neil and Gordon Brewer with the latest political news, interviews and debate.


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:41.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

:00:42.:00:44.

With just a month to go until the general election,

:00:45.:00:49.

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

:00:50.:00:52.

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

:00:53.:00:57.

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

:00:58.:01:00.

But is there still really all to play for?

:01:01.:01:08.

And tonight we will find out who is the next

:01:09.:01:12.

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

:01:13.:01:15.

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

:01:16.:01:18.

on Mr Macron, considered the frontrunner.

:01:19.:01:21.

The SNP remain the largest party in local Government

:01:22.:01:24.

while the Scottish Tories claim only they have the strength

:01:25.:01:26.

We look at the battle to translate local votes into Westminster seats.

:01:27.:01:39.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

:01:40.:01:43.

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

:01:44.:01:46.

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

:01:47.:01:49.

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

:01:50.:01:51.

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:52.:01:57.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

:01:58.:02:04.

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

:02:05.:02:07.

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

:02:08.:02:13.

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

:02:14.:02:16.

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

:02:17.:02:19.

There is a lot of new money going into it.

:02:20.:02:26.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

:02:27.:02:29.

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

:02:30.:02:33.

No, it is new money going into the NHS

:02:34.:02:37.

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

:02:38.:02:44.

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

:02:45.:02:46.

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

:02:47.:02:51.

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

:02:52.:02:53.

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

:02:54.:03:02.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

:03:03.:03:08.

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

:03:09.:03:13.

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

:03:14.:03:17.

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

:03:18.:03:22.

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

:03:23.:03:27.

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

:03:28.:03:33.

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

:03:34.:03:38.

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

:03:39.:03:42.

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

:03:43.:03:45.

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

:03:46.:03:54.

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

:03:55.:04:00.

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

:04:01.:04:04.

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

:04:05.:04:08.

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

:04:09.:04:12.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

:04:13.:04:23.

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

:04:24.:04:28.

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

:04:29.:04:36.

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

:04:37.:04:40.

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

:04:41.:04:46.

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

:04:47.:04:50.

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

:04:51.:04:56.

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

:04:57.:05:01.

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

:05:02.:05:05.

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

:05:06.:05:11.

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

:05:12.:05:15.

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

:05:16.:05:22.

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

:05:23.:05:27.

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

:05:28.:05:32.

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

:05:33.:05:37.

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

:05:38.:05:40.

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

:05:41.:05:47.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

:05:48.:05:50.

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

:05:51.:05:55.

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

:05:56.:06:02.

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

:06:03.:06:06.

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

:06:07.:06:10.

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

:06:11.:06:17.

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

:06:18.:06:20.

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

:06:21.:06:24.

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

:06:25.:06:31.

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

:06:32.:06:36.

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

:06:37.:06:41.

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

:06:42.:06:45.

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

:06:46.:06:50.

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

:06:51.:06:55.

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

:06:56.:07:01.

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

:07:02.:07:06.

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

:07:07.:07:10.

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

:07:11.:07:14.

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

:07:15.:07:20.

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

:07:21.:07:24.

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

:07:25.:07:28.

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

:07:29.:07:32.

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

:07:33.:07:39.

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

:07:40.:07:43.

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

:07:44.:07:47.

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

:07:48.:07:53.

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

:07:54.:07:58.

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

:07:59.:08:02.

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

:08:03.:08:06.

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

:08:07.:08:13.

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

:08:14.:08:19.

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

:08:20.:08:23.

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

:08:24.:08:26.

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

:08:27.:08:30.

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

:08:31.:08:33.

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

:08:34.:08:35.

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

:08:36.:08:40.

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

:08:41.:08:43.

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

:08:44.:08:47.

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

:08:48.:08:49.

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

:08:50.:08:52.

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

:08:53.:08:55.

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

:08:56.:08:58.

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

:08:59.:09:01.

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

:09:02.:09:05.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

:09:06.:09:11.

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

:09:12.:09:15.

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

:09:16.:09:18.

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

:09:19.:09:21.

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

:09:22.:09:24.

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

:09:25.:09:26.

only getting started, there was plenty of action

:09:27.:09:28.

still to come. It's not quite the night

:09:29.:09:33.

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

:09:34.:09:36.

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

:09:37.:09:38.

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

:09:39.:09:41.

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

:09:42.:09:48.

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

:09:49.:09:50.

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

:09:51.:09:55.

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

:09:56.:10:02.

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

:10:03.:10:07.

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

:10:08.:10:10.

think the election's just I think leave it

:10:11.:10:13.

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

:10:14.:10:17.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

:10:18.:10:19.

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

:10:20.:10:23.

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

:10:24.:10:29.

winning a single seat. The joke going around

:10:30.:10:40.

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

:10:41.:10:47.

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

:10:48.:10:49.

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

:10:50.:10:53.

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

:10:54.:10:58.

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

:10:59.:11:01.

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

:11:02.:11:04.

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

:11:05.:11:07.

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

:11:08.:11:10.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

:11:11.:11:13.

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

:11:14.:11:18.

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

:11:19.:11:21.

and seven councils. If the result is what these

:11:22.:11:24.

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

:11:25.:11:29.

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

:11:30.:11:33.

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

:11:34.:11:42.

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

:11:43.:11:46.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

:11:47.:11:48.

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

:11:49.:11:51.

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

:11:52.:11:54.

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

:11:55.:11:56.

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

:11:57.:12:01.

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

:12:02.:12:03.

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

:12:04.:12:08.

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

:12:09.:12:11.

the control of a whole council came The section of England

:12:12.:12:19.

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

:12:20.:12:27.

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

:12:28.:12:31.

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

:12:32.:12:34.

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

:12:35.:12:41.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

:12:42.:12:42.

but I have one here. With the introduction

:12:43.:12:47.

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

:12:48.:12:50.

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

:12:51.:12:54.

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

:12:55.:12:56.

because I've got some I used to present news,

:12:57.:13:02.

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

:13:03.:13:05.

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

:13:06.:13:08.

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

:13:09.:13:10.

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

:13:11.:13:17.

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

:13:18.:13:23.

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

:13:24.:13:28.

with their best local So another election results

:13:29.:13:29.

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

:13:30.:13:34.

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

:13:35.:13:40.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

:13:41.:13:53.

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

:13:54.:13:55.

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

:13:56.:14:07.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

:14:08.:14:09.

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

:14:10.:14:11.

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

:14:12.:14:16.

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

:14:17.:14:21.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

:14:22.:14:23.

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

:14:24.:14:26.

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

:14:27.:14:28.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

:14:29.:14:32.

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

:14:33.:14:38.

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

:14:39.:14:40.

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

:14:41.:14:47.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

:14:48.:14:50.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

:14:51.:14:54.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

:14:55.:15:07.

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

:15:08.:15:12.

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

:15:13.:15:15.

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

:15:16.:15:19.

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

:15:20.:15:23.

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

:15:24.:15:28.

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

:15:29.:15:31.

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

:15:32.:15:36.

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

:15:37.:15:43.

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

:15:44.:15:45.

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

:15:46.:15:48.

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

:15:49.:15:52.

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

:15:53.:15:58.

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

:15:59.:16:02.

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

:16:03.:16:06.

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

:16:07.:16:09.

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

:16:10.:16:14.

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

:16:15.:16:18.

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

:16:19.:16:22.

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

:16:23.:16:27.

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

:16:28.:16:31.

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

:16:32.:16:35.

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

:16:36.:16:39.

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

:16:40.:16:45.

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

:16:46.:16:50.

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

:16:51.:16:53.

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

:16:54.:16:58.

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

:16:59.:17:02.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

:17:03.:17:06.

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

:17:07.:17:12.

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

:17:13.:17:17.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

:17:18.:17:23.

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

:17:24.:17:26.

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

:17:27.:17:30.

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

:17:31.:17:34.

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

:17:35.:17:39.

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

:17:40.:17:42.

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

:17:43.:17:45.

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

:17:46.:17:51.

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

:17:52.:17:57.

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

:17:58.:18:01.

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

:18:02.:18:06.

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

:18:07.:18:11.

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

:18:12.:18:14.

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

:18:15.:18:18.

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

:18:19.:18:23.

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

:18:24.:18:31.

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

:18:32.:18:34.

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

:18:35.:18:37.

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

:18:38.:18:42.

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

:18:43.:18:46.

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

:18:47.:18:51.

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

:18:52.:18:54.

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

:18:55.:18:59.

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

:19:00.:19:03.

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

:19:04.:19:08.

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

:19:09.:19:18.

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

:19:19.:19:22.

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

:19:23.:19:30.

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

:19:31.:19:34.

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

:19:35.:19:39.

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

:19:40.:19:46.

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

:19:47.:19:50.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

:19:51.:19:55.

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

:19:56.:20:00.

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

:20:01.:20:05.

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

:20:06.:20:14.

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

:20:15.:20:21.

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

:20:22.:20:25.

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

:20:26.:20:28.

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

:20:29.:20:31.

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

:20:32.:20:37.

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

:20:38.:20:40.

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

:20:41.:20:46.

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

:20:47.:20:50.

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

:20:51.:20:55.

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

:20:56.:20:59.

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

:21:00.:21:02.

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

:21:03.:21:07.

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

:21:08.:21:12.

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

:21:13.:21:18.

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

:21:19.:21:22.

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

:21:23.:21:26.

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

:21:27.:21:31.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

:21:32.:21:34.

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

:21:35.:21:37.

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

:21:38.:21:42.

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

:21:43.:21:46.

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

:21:47.:21:50.

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

:21:51.:21:54.

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

:21:55.:21:58.

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

:21:59.:22:01.

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

:22:02.:22:07.

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

:22:08.:22:13.

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

:22:14.:22:16.

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

:22:17.:22:21.

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

:22:22.:22:25.

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

:22:26.:22:29.

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

:22:30.:22:35.

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

:22:36.:22:41.

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

:22:42.:22:44.

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

:22:45.:22:49.

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

:22:50.:22:52.

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

:22:53.:22:56.

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

:22:57.:23:02.

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

:23:03.:23:06.

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

:23:07.:23:08.

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

:23:09.:23:12.

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

:23:13.:23:14.

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

:23:15.:23:17.

which of course means those earning more than that could

:23:18.:23:19.

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

:23:20.:23:21.

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

:23:22.:23:30.

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

:23:31.:23:35.

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

:23:36.:23:38.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

:23:39.:23:43.

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

:23:44.:23:47.

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

:23:48.:23:54.

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

:23:55.:23:57.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

:23:58.:24:02.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

:24:03.:24:08.

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

:24:09.:24:13.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

:24:14.:24:20.

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

:24:21.:24:26.

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

:24:27.:24:30.

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

:24:31.:24:34.

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

:24:35.:24:38.

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

:24:39.:24:45.

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

:24:46.:24:50.

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

:24:51.:24:56.

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

:24:57.:24:59.

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

:25:00.:25:05.

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

:25:06.:25:14.

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

:25:15.:25:17.

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

:25:18.:25:23.

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

:25:24.:25:29.

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

:25:30.:25:34.

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

:25:35.:25:39.

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

:25:40.:25:44.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

:25:45.:25:49.

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

:25:50.:25:59.

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

:26:00.:26:05.

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

:26:06.:26:10.

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

:26:11.:26:14.

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

:26:15.:26:18.

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

:26:19.:26:23.

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

:26:24.:26:29.

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

:26:30.:26:34.

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

:26:35.:26:38.

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

:26:39.:26:43.

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

:26:44.:26:46.

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

:26:47.:26:51.

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

:26:52.:26:55.

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

:26:56.:26:57.

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

:26:58.:27:05.

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

:27:06.:27:11.

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

:27:12.:27:17.

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

:27:18.:27:22.

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

:27:23.:27:27.

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

:27:28.:27:32.

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

:27:33.:27:37.

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

:27:38.:27:41.

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

:27:42.:27:46.

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

:27:47.:27:51.

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

:27:52.:27:56.

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

:27:57.:28:01.

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

:28:02.:28:05.

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

:28:06.:28:09.

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

:28:10.:28:14.

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

:28:15.:28:20.

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

:28:21.:28:25.

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

:28:26.:28:29.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

:28:30.:28:33.

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

:28:34.:28:39.

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

:28:40.:28:42.

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

:28:43.:28:46.

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

:28:47.:28:52.

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

:28:53.:28:58.

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

:28:59.:29:01.

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

:29:02.:29:06.

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

:29:07.:29:09.

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

:29:10.:29:13.

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

:29:14.:29:18.

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

:29:19.:29:23.

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

:29:24.:29:29.

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

:29:30.:29:37.

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

:29:38.:29:41.

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

:29:42.:29:47.

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

:29:48.:29:51.

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

:29:52.:29:58.

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

:29:59.:30:02.

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

:30:03.:30:05.

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

:30:06.:30:12.

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

:30:13.:30:16.

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

:30:17.:30:20.

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

:30:21.:30:25.

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

:30:26.:30:32.

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

:30:33.:30:34.

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

:30:35.:30:38.

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

:30:39.:30:41.

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

:30:42.:30:47.

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

:30:48.:30:51.

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

:30:52.:30:54.

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

:30:55.:31:00.

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

:31:01.:31:04.

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

:31:05.:31:10.

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

:31:11.:31:15.

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

:31:16.:31:18.

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

:31:19.:31:23.

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

:31:24.:31:28.

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

:31:29.:31:31.

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

:31:32.:31:35.

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

:31:36.:31:39.

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

:31:40.:31:46.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

:31:47.:31:50.

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

:31:51.:32:03.

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

:32:04.:32:09.

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

:32:10.:32:13.

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

:32:14.:32:17.

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

:32:18.:32:21.

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

:32:22.:32:23.

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

:32:24.:32:26.

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

:32:27.:32:32.

won its best ever local government performance,

:32:33.:32:34.

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

:32:35.:32:36.

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

:32:37.:32:39.

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

:32:40.:32:43.

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

:32:44.:32:46.

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

:32:47.:32:48.

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

:32:49.:32:58.

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

:32:59.:33:03.

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

:33:04.:33:08.

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

:33:09.:33:15.

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

:33:16.:33:19.

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

:33:20.:33:23.

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

:33:24.:33:26.

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

:33:27.:33:30.

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

:33:31.:33:37.

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

:33:38.:33:40.

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

:33:41.:33:44.

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

:33:45.:33:50.

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

:33:51.:33:56.

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

:33:57.:33:59.

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

:34:00.:34:02.

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

:34:03.:34:08.

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

:34:09.:34:12.

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

:34:13.:34:18.

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

:34:19.:34:24.

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

:34:25.:34:28.

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

:34:29.:34:31.

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

:34:32.:34:36.

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

:34:37.:34:40.

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

:34:41.:34:44.

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

:34:45.:34:48.

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

:34:49.:34:53.

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

:34:54.:34:56.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

:34:57.:35:02.

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

:35:03.:35:07.

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

:35:08.:35:12.

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

:35:13.:35:15.

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

:35:16.:35:22.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

:35:23.:35:25.

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

:35:26.:35:28.

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

:35:29.:35:34.

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

:35:35.:35:39.

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

:35:40.:35:40.

beyond the control of any individual leader? These are cosmic forces

:35:41.:35:44.

at the moment, it is certainly not Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the

:35:45.:35:48.

job for six months and in half that time he was fighting a by-election

:35:49.:35:52.

-- certainly not Paul Nuttall's time he was fighting a by-election

:35:53.:35:56.

fault. We have two become more time he was fighting a by-election

:35:57.:35:58.

professional than we have been recently. It has not been a

:35:59.:36:03.

brilliant year for Ukip one way or another, as you know, but there are

:36:04.:36:07.

prospects, in future, that are very rosy. I do not believe that the

:36:08.:36:10.

Tories will deliver on other promises that they are now making.

:36:11.:36:15.

The Welsh assembly elections are not until 2021, you are a member of

:36:16.:36:20.

that, but at that point you will not have any MEPs, because we will be

:36:21.:36:25.

out on the timetable. With this current showing he will have no

:36:26.:36:29.

end', you could be Ukip's most senior elected representative. That

:36:30.:36:39.

would be a turnout for the books! -- no elected MPs. The Tories are not

:36:40.:36:43.

promoting the policies that I believe them. You will see that in

:36:44.:36:47.

the Ukip manifesto when it is shortly publish... Leaders talk

:36:48.:36:52.

mainly about the male genital mutilation and is -- female and

:36:53.:37:02.

burqas. No, when the manifesto launched, we have a lot of policies,

:37:03.:37:08.

I spoke moments ago about it, but also on foreign aid. Scrapping green

:37:09.:37:15.

taxes, to cut people's electricity bills by ?300 per year on average.

:37:16.:37:19.

There are a lot of popular policies that we have. We will hear more from

:37:20.:37:27.

that in the weeks to come. Paul Nuttall said "If the price of

:37:28.:37:32.

written leaving the year is a Tory advance after taking up this

:37:33.:37:36.

patriarch course, it is a price that Ukip is prepared to pay". That

:37:37.:37:41.

sounds like a surrender statement? It is a statement of fact, the main

:37:42.:37:46.

agenda is to get out of the EU and have full Brexit. That is why Ukip

:37:47.:37:53.

came into existence 20 years ago. When it is achieved, we go back to

:37:54.:37:57.

the normal political battle lines. Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you

:37:58.:37:59.

very much for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am,

:38:00.:38:03.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. Good morning and welcome

:38:04.:38:12.

to Sunday Politics Scotland. The SNP won most

:38:13.:38:13.

local council seats. While the Tories made

:38:14.:38:17.

significant gains. As the battle lines are drawn anew,

:38:18.:38:20.

we look at the prospects And as France heads to the polls,

:38:21.:38:23.

we'll be asking if TV debates really TRANSLATION: Yes, they deserve the

:38:24.:38:42.

truth. I treat the French like adults, I don't lie to them.

:38:43.:38:44.

I treat the French like adults, I don't lie to them.

:38:45.:38:47.

Local election results don't always have us on the edge of our seats.

:38:48.:38:50.

But when they come just a few weeks before a general election,

:38:51.:38:53.

it's natural to wonder if they're an indicator of things to come.

:38:54.:38:56.

The SNP and the Tories had much to celebrate.

:38:57.:38:58.

The Nationalists now the biggest group in councils

:38:59.:39:00.

But it was the Tories who saw some of the biggest gains of the night.

:39:01.:39:05.

In a moment, we'll chew over what it all means.

:39:06.:39:07.

This is what regime change looks like, the First Minister parading

:39:08.:39:19.

her 39 councillors, as the SNP overtakes Labour in its Glasgow

:39:20.:39:22.

heartland. There is no doubting the overall winner was in this election

:39:23.:39:26.

and what you see is history in the making. They used to top of red

:39:27.:39:30.

Clydeside, but note the city Chambers is a sea of yellow. It's

:39:31.:39:36.

not just here in Glasgow, read throughout the country, the SNP have

:39:37.:39:39.

taken the lead in more local authorities than ever before. Take

:39:40.:39:43.

taken the lead in more local Edinburgh for example, for the first

:39:44.:39:47.

time the SNP is the biggest group on the council. Remarkable free party

:39:48.:39:51.

which didn't have a single Edinburgh councillor as recently as 2003.

:39:52.:39:58.

However, in places like yes vote in Dundee, the Nationalists lost their

:39:59.:40:02.

overall majority. While the Tories have seen gains. Should be barred to

:40:03.:40:06.

be worried? That is just something to do with the STV system. We have

:40:07.:40:10.

this strange system in Scotland where we have four major elections

:40:11.:40:14.

under four different voting systems. I don't think people understand the

:40:15.:40:20.

difference. Do you think the SNP will be worried about the rise of

:40:21.:40:24.

the Conservatives? Not really, because I think we're seeing in the

:40:25.:40:28.

Scottish Parliament that Nicola Sturgeon actually picked his death

:40:29.:40:31.

as the SNP against the Conservatives. She thinks there is,

:40:32.:40:36.

and I agree with her, there is a limit, a ceiling to the Conservative

:40:37.:40:41.

vote in Scotland and she will be looking for disaffected Labour

:40:42.:40:44.

people to come to SNP rather than go to the Conservatives.

:40:45.:40:47.

CHEERING But it is the Tories who have

:40:48.:40:50.

grabbed the headlines. The only party in the selection to make big

:40:51.:40:58.

gains overall. Who would have thought it? Who indeed. Meet

:40:59.:41:03.

20-year-old Thomas care, the first Conservative councillor ever elected

:41:04.:41:08.

in Glasgow Shettleston. The polls predicted a Tory surge, but if you

:41:09.:41:13.

imagined they would see gains in the country's most deprived areas. You

:41:14.:41:22.

don't know any Tories around your? Definitely not. They must have put

:41:23.:41:26.

in the wrong number down. Do you know anyone around you is but a

:41:27.:41:30.

Conservative? A feud. I think if you have swayed towards the way the yes

:41:31.:41:37.

vote went. Celtic, Rangers, getting involved in politics. It is quite

:41:38.:41:44.

clear that there are real no-go areas for Tories now. Even though

:41:45.:41:47.

people might say they will not fulfil eateries, they clearly are.

:41:48.:41:51.

Even though of course the voting system means a new local elections

:41:52.:41:55.

they could not have been a first preference, they could have been

:41:56.:41:58.

second or third. There are still crosses in those boxes now which I

:41:59.:42:02.

think would have been on the ball ten years ago. Would you think this

:42:03.:42:10.

resurgence has come from? -- where. It is not surprising, because it has

:42:11.:42:13.

been coming for quite a long time in Scotland. They had a low base start,

:42:14.:42:23.

but these are with MPs such as Ruth Davidson, there has been a nicer

:42:24.:42:26.

name of the Tory party that the leaders of the Tories in Scotland

:42:27.:42:31.

have had have been personable, very attractive speakers that I think has

:42:32.:42:38.

been of huge benefit to the Tories. But with no mainstream party having

:42:39.:42:43.

automatic control of any council, coalitions will have to be formed

:42:44.:42:47.

and deals done. Given the deed constitutional divide in Scotland,

:42:48.:42:51.

don't hold your breath waiting for any deals between the SNP and the

:42:52.:42:54.

Well, joining me now are the SNP's former

:42:55.:42:57.

Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill and the former Tory

:42:58.:42:59.

Kenny MacAskill, I am curious, given the SNP did very well in these local

:43:00.:43:12.

elections, the Tories did extremely well compare to where they were

:43:13.:43:15.

coming from, where that leaves this idea of a second independence

:43:16.:43:20.

referendum? Do you think it was wise for the Scottish Government makes

:43:21.:43:23.

achieving about it? I think they had no alternative given what happened

:43:24.:43:27.

with the Brexit vote and were Scotland clearly went any

:43:28.:43:28.

significant diffident direction. I Scotland clearly went any

:43:29.:43:35.

don't think it's necessarily immediately on the horizon, because

:43:36.:43:37.

we still don't know where we're going with Brexit, whether we are

:43:38.:43:40.

shooting over the cliff or whether we are going to be able to pull

:43:41.:43:44.

back, so this is going to continue to run and run. The push for an

:43:45.:43:48.

independence referendum came because of actions taken by the UK

:43:49.:43:53.

Government and by an electorate third of the border. Are you saying,

:43:54.:43:55.

when you say it's not an third of the border. Are you saying,

:43:56.:43:59.

prospect, what are you saying in four or five or six years' time? I

:44:00.:44:08.

think it depends upon events. In the rest to begin shooting onto the

:44:09.:44:11.

agenda because of the Brexit vote that had not been anticipated. --

:44:12.:44:18.

independence referendum. Equally, I think it is hard to see how you can

:44:19.:44:21.

have an independence referendum without having some clarity about

:44:22.:44:25.

just what Brexit negotiations are going to result in. Whether it's

:44:26.:44:29.

going to become amateurs, but equally, what the alternative is

:44:30.:44:33.

going to be. Those factors on both have to put before the electorate

:44:34.:44:36.

and at the present moment, they are not there from either side. Do think

:44:37.:44:41.

it would be wiser as an ex-Minister for the Scottish Government to have

:44:42.:44:44.

it be more like what you're saying, which is to say we reserve our

:44:45.:44:48.

options here and we will await anti-white happens, rather than

:44:49.:44:51.

saying, you is the timetable we want to have one by next spring. The

:44:52.:44:58.

timetable is not going to be within the grasp of the Scottish

:44:59.:45:01.

Government, so I think there are going to be difficulties there.

:45:02.:45:05.

People want clarity, but I do think the SNP Government was to them

:45:06.:45:09.

People want clarity, but I do think events. Scotland today markedly

:45:10.:45:11.

different position from the UK on Brexit. The referendum was quite

:45:12.:45:15.

clear about that. The rest were the hard Brexit posted by Theresa May,

:45:16.:45:19.

the language that she has used in the last few weeks is reminiscent of

:45:20.:45:26.

almost preparing for war rather than delicate negotiations of the

:45:27.:45:29.

diplomatic nature, so some of these things are beyond the Scottish

:45:30.:45:32.

Government's control and had to react to them. Again, the SNP did

:45:33.:45:37.

emerge as by far the largest party, but when Nicola Sturgeon says it is

:45:38.:45:43.

ludicrous to claim there has been a backlash against the SNP, given the

:45:44.:45:47.

rise of the Tory vote, surely if ludicrously hard to say it's

:45:48.:45:50.

ludicrous? Clearly there has been. No, nobody can deny they have had a

:45:51.:45:58.

good result. But the other not had the results Margaret Thatcher even

:45:59.:46:02.

John Major was pulling in 1992. There has always been a right of

:46:03.:46:06.

centre vote in Scotland, it hasn't really had that representation

:46:07.:46:10.

probably because of factors coming from London. They are trying to get

:46:11.:46:14.

back to where they were in the 1980s. They are certainly not

:46:15.:46:16.

getting back to the position where they were in the 1950s. This

:46:17.:46:23.

election was won by the SNP. There was a areas where they suffered by

:46:24.:46:27.

tactical voting and a Unionist alliance. There were areas where

:46:28.:46:31.

they know themselves the under middle and their laurels with the

:46:32.:46:35.

general election coming. It it was a victory for the SNP and it was a

:46:36.:46:39.

good night for the Conservatives and disastrous for the Labour Party. I'm

:46:40.:46:46.

not quite sure what your message is that you're trying to send out about

:46:47.:46:51.

the second independence referendum? The indication seems to be there if

:46:52.:46:55.

the SNP don't get 50% or more any general election, somehow they have

:46:56.:47:00.

no mandate for it. I think the big mistake that Nicola Sturgeon made

:47:01.:47:03.

was assuming that all of her supporters, the SNP supporters, were

:47:04.:47:09.

against Brexit and the fact is, tens of thousands of them were in fact in

:47:10.:47:13.

favour Brexit. So we are seeing is an off uncertainty and division cars

:47:14.:47:21.

to buy the first referendum whereby only 2.5 years ago we gave a solid

:47:22.:47:29.

vote 55% to 45%. The fact is, the Scottish Government say we have in

:47:30.:47:31.

our manifesto that if the circumstances are Brexit have arisen

:47:32.:47:40.

because of Brexit, we will use that for a second independence

:47:41.:47:44.

referendum. Bruising that that doesn't matter? I saying that two

:47:45.:47:47.

thirds of the votes cast on Thursday, and a Member that will be

:47:48.:47:53.

a much bigger pool in the general election, two thirds of those were

:47:54.:47:57.

for Unionist parties. The messages that we want the referendum. The

:47:58.:48:02.

normal way we work in politics is that if you see something in your

:48:03.:48:05.

manifesto and then you win the election, you then do it. If you

:48:06.:48:08.

don't do it, the SNP were not keeping commitments in their

:48:09.:48:12.

manifesto, you'd be screaming if it was things over things like

:48:13.:48:14.

manifesto, you'd be screaming if it education and health. They are only

:48:15.:48:20.

keeping their manifesto by having a second independence referendum. By

:48:21.:48:25.

being obsessed with it, the our breaking manifesto. McGregor not

:48:26.:48:28.

answering my question about whether or not you think they have no

:48:29.:48:31.

mandate or whether prounion parties getting over 50% in general

:48:32.:48:39.

elections means that the SNP have less of a mandate? I think they are

:48:40.:48:43.

treading water on Thursday compared to... You're not answering my

:48:44.:48:46.

question! Iamb answering your question. It is clear that there is

:48:47.:48:55.

a majority in Scotland who don't want this referendum. People don't

:48:56.:48:58.

want uncertainty. They want the day job to be done by Nicola Sturgeon

:48:59.:49:03.

and her ministers. They want education to improve. Would you

:49:04.:49:06.

challenge to write to have won if she wants to? Well, I would. I would

:49:07.:49:10.

see the majority in Scotland don't want it. It was a bad idea to have

:49:11.:49:15.

it in your manifesto in the first place. Kenny MacAskill, ginger

:49:16.:49:20.

subject. Labour's plans on tax. These said would be any taxes on

:49:21.:49:24.

subject. Labour's plans on tax. people earning over ?80,000 a year.

:49:25.:49:32.

subject. Labour's plans on tax. -- under. What do you make of that?

:49:33.:49:39.

You can't ask me about the SNP. I would have to say I am not

:49:40.:49:42.

frightened by these things in any way. Far from being some Marxist

:49:43.:49:46.

resurgent John McDonnell, if the policies that are even watered down

:49:47.:49:51.

from Denis Healey. It was him he was herald up by likening Tories know as

:49:52.:49:57.

a manager that Labour should be following. He was going to taxi rich

:49:58.:50:05.

until the pips squeak. I have to say, I don't see why people are

:50:06.:50:09.

getting any palaver. 95% of people... C quite like this idea?

:50:10.:50:16.

Eye think there comes a time when we have to decide what society is about

:50:17.:50:22.

Eye think there comes a time when we soul that is right the coming

:50:23.:50:26.

general election is not going to be about Indyref 2, it will be about

:50:27.:50:31.

the society we seek. And I fear what kind of society the Tories will

:50:32.:50:39.

create. I quite like the policies that Denis Healey carried out and I

:50:40.:50:48.

think people thought the government is under... It has been overblown.

:50:49.:50:56.

John McDonnell and Jeremy Corbyn I think are incompetent. I have to say

:50:57.:50:59.

the policies they put forward are not the policies of... The policies

:51:00.:51:06.

being put forward by the Tories are right wing and it is becoming more

:51:07.:51:12.

right wing. What do you make of Nicola Sturgeon's comment that it is

:51:13.:51:18.

ludicrous to say there is a backlash against the SNP? She has got a

:51:19.:51:23.

point, the SNP are by far the biggest party in these local

:51:24.:51:27.

elections. You may have done well, but you are way behind. SNP lost

:51:28.:51:32.

elections. You may have done well, overall control in Dundee and Angus,

:51:33.:51:35.

that is part of the Hartland. They have no overall control in any

:51:36.:51:42.

council now. They are the biggest party in most cases, including

:51:43.:51:47.

Glasgow. That is no surprise. They have been the biggest party in

:51:48.:51:51.

elections in the past ten years. But they are treading water. Using there

:51:52.:51:57.

is a backlash? John Curtin said Thursday was a disappointing day for

:51:58.:52:04.

the SNP. They have not made any gains, we made huge gains. Do you

:52:05.:52:09.

think it is a backlash against the SNP by the idea of a second

:52:10.:52:14.

independence referendum? I think it is both. People are sick to death of

:52:15.:52:16.

Indyref 2. Thank you both very much. Now, let's turn to the fortunes

:52:17.:52:20.

of the other parties. The Tory resurgence pushed

:52:21.:52:22.

Labour into third place The Liberal Democrats flat-lined

:52:23.:52:24.

overall, but saw some encouraging gains in seats they're targeting

:52:25.:52:27.

in the general election. And the Greens saw a record number

:52:28.:52:29.

of councillors elected. Labour has held control of Glasgow

:52:30.:52:41.

since 1980 and was dominant for their kids before, but on Friday

:52:42.:52:45.

that hold was broken. Across Scotland Labour lost seats, councils

:52:46.:52:53.

and power. These are not good election results for the Labour

:52:54.:52:59.

Party. They come in a sequence of retreat and advisers. That is bad,

:53:00.:53:02.

Party. They come in a sequence of there is a problem about strategy

:53:03.:53:07.

and a UK level and Scotland level. It is not as bad as it could've

:53:08.:53:12.

been. In Glasgow they have lost control of the city they have

:53:13.:53:17.

reclaimed 30% of the vote. This is not as bad as it could have been

:53:18.:53:21.

reclaimed 30% of the vote. This is foreign labour versus expectations.

:53:22.:53:25.

They are still sort of semi-alive and insignificant parts of the

:53:26.:53:31.

country, the West of Scotland, Edinburgh and Dundee they have got

:53:32.:53:35.

significant representation. But it most cases Labour votes did not go

:53:36.:53:38.

to the SNP but the Tories. They are adamant they can turn their fortunes

:53:39.:53:46.

around, turning -- pointing out they are second in many seats. They think

:53:47.:53:51.

they can trump the Tories as the main Unionist opposition. The

:53:52.:53:54.

Liberal Democrats mostly held steady, although from a base in some

:53:55.:53:58.

cases which was low. They made progress in areas they are targeting

:53:59.:54:04.

to win in next month was 's general election, polling 52% in one of the

:54:05.:54:07.

words and Edinburgh West. When you have such a massive Tory surge come

:54:08.:54:12.

through and we have come out of it unscathed, that is really quietening

:54:13.:54:18.

courage insane. It has put us in a very strong position to win places

:54:19.:54:24.

like Edinburgh West and North East Fife and East Dunbartonshire. And

:54:25.:54:27.

some seats in the Highlands, too. It has been very clear that we have

:54:28.:54:34.

made gains and the result in Edinburgh is fantastic, doubling

:54:35.:54:39.

representation and the sort of result in East Berkshire. The Greens

:54:40.:54:43.

had a record number of candidates elected giving them a presence on

:54:44.:54:45.

had a record number of candidates six councils and the good play a

:54:46.:54:48.

pivotal role in Glasgow City Council, should the SNP decide not

:54:49.:54:53.

to operate as a minority administration.

:54:54.:54:55.

With me now to discuss their party's prospects are Labour's James Kelly

:54:56.:54:58.

and Alex Cole-Hamilton from the Liberal Democrats.

:54:59.:55:01.

Alex, you heard Karen Lindsey there saying when the Tories were surging,

:55:02.:55:12.

it was terrific that the Liberal Democrats held their own. The

:55:13.:55:16.

trouble is that it was you who were supposed to be surging. According to

:55:17.:55:19.

Tim Farron you were going to make huge gains and you have got nowhere.

:55:20.:55:25.

I don't agree at all. Our best result in this election were in

:55:26.:55:28.

those days where we were at the main contention to take this leads from

:55:29.:55:32.

Westminster constituencies. In North contention to take this leads from

:55:33.:55:37.

East Fife where we beat them contention to take this leads from

:55:38.:55:46.

15%. Losing overall for councillors in Scotland is a tremendous triumph?

:55:47.:55:50.

I pay tribute to those councillors who lost. This is an election where

:55:51.:55:57.

there was a national narrative, Theresa May was asking them to vote

:55:58.:56:02.

whether national ticket. We held our own across the country, but over all

:56:03.:56:10.

the SNP in places like East Dumbartonshire, and Dundee and the

:56:11.:56:14.

Highlands, to put and a good position to cars upsets. Are you

:56:15.:56:18.

going to win sees that you just said, you mention? Absolutely. We

:56:19.:56:24.

have activists already on the ground. We see attrition in the SNP

:56:25.:56:32.

vote and these results, it was an STV election when tactical voting

:56:33.:56:36.

does not happen. This was before Pan unionists comment, N Easter March,

:56:37.:56:50.

in Fife and Edinburgh. James Kelly, one of the reasons, perhaps the main

:56:51.:56:53.

reason that the Tories did well, is the position themselves as being the

:56:54.:57:00.

people who are opposed to independence, to another

:57:01.:57:02.

independence referendum and the people who want to retain the United

:57:03.:57:06.

Kingdom. All things which are officially Labour policy. Wide you

:57:07.:57:12.

think it is the conservatives who have managed to position and get all

:57:13.:57:17.

these votes by opposing another independence referendum and not

:57:18.:57:21.

Labour? Because to an extent the Conservatives have become a one

:57:22.:57:25.

issue party. We were clear in the selection we are opposed to

:57:26.:57:29.

independence, a second independence referendum, but we also promoted

:57:30.:57:33.

candidates who were going to stand up for the communities, support

:57:34.:57:37.

public services... But the bottom line is that voters... Tories had

:57:38.:57:44.

nothing to say anything about that. But a lot of voters do not want

:57:45.:57:48.

another independence referendum. Ruth Davidson is good to stop it.

:57:49.:57:53.

Labour, I do not know what they are going to do. What are you going to

:57:54.:57:56.

see in the general election to stop all those people who voted Tory in

:57:57.:58:00.

the local elections, doing exactly the same thing as remark we have got

:58:01.:58:04.

a much more wider and in-depth political messages than the

:58:05.:58:10.

Conservatives. That is saying the electorate are too daft to

:58:11.:58:14.

understand the nuances of your policy. On Thursday, Nicola Sturgeon

:58:15.:58:19.

acted as a recruiting Sergeant for the Tories and people use their

:58:20.:58:21.

votes in protest, voting Tory. the Tories and people use their

:58:22.:58:27.

they could have voted for Labour. They didn't. In these elections

:58:28.:58:35.

coming up, the real reason for these elections is that Labour are in

:58:36.:58:38.

second place. In the vast majority of seats across the country, they

:58:39.:58:41.

are now compared them in these seats. You are John -- running the

:58:42.:58:48.

general election campaign. You going to convince people who voted

:58:49.:58:52.

Conservative Cosby do not want another independence referendum,

:58:53.:58:56.

that Labour is the way to persist that. If you do not want that in

:58:57.:59:02.

Scotland, vote Labour. We are talking about the issues that matter

:59:03.:59:06.

to people. Now, for these photos, look, we have got some proposals

:59:07.:59:11.

about the health service. Now, the main thing is we do not want an

:59:12.:59:15.

independence referendum. Why should we vote Labour question work that is

:59:16.:59:19.

patronising to see people do not care about education and the health

:59:20.:59:25.

service. So why did they vote Conservative? Why did they not

:59:26.:59:33.

fought for you? We will speak about investment in public services,

:59:34.:59:37.

prioritising and tackling issues that matter to people. Do the

:59:38.:59:41.

Liberal Democrats have any better ideas how to sweep up the

:59:42.:59:44.

anti-independence for? You were more ideas how to sweep up the

:59:45.:59:49.

hard line against the second independence referendum than the

:59:50.:59:53.

Tories were. But people voted Tory rather than liberal Democrat. You

:59:54.:00:01.

will see more Tory voters coming over in seats like eastern

:00:02.:00:05.

Berkshire, Argyll and Bute and five to do that. -- eastern Berkshire. We

:00:06.:00:13.

are the only party who stand on the political stage offering Scotland

:00:14.:00:17.

stronger as part of the United Kingdom, and the youth key stronger

:00:18.:00:24.

as part of the European union. We are the only party offering them

:00:25.:00:28.

that. There are reports this morning that Tim Farron and his team, having

:00:29.:00:35.

had a long baleful look at the local election results, have decided the

:00:36.:00:39.

best they can hope for in the general election is to double the

:00:40.:00:42.

number of seats to name. Is that your view? From the hallway you have

:00:43.:00:48.

been talking this morning, it seems you have two or three seats in

:00:49.:00:52.

Scotland you would like to target and your ambitions do not go much

:00:53.:00:57.

further than that. On the contrary. I was on the phone to the federal

:00:58.:01:02.

director of campaigns last night asking that we escalate national

:01:03.:01:10.

investment in seats like Caithness because of the strength of the

:01:11.:01:14.

council results. We are looking to return in strength in Scotland. Are

:01:15.:01:19.

you looking for a Liberal Democrats to become the main opposition? The

:01:20.:01:24.

main opposition party? What was your question question work Tim Farron

:01:25.:01:28.

has been saying that the four domain general election, he wants to be the

:01:29.:01:36.

main opposition. They are asleep at the wheel. We have to increase our

:01:37.:01:41.

national vote share by 7%. We are back in touching distance of Clegg

:01:42.:01:46.

mania back in 2010. You cannot say we are not in position to be that

:01:47.:01:51.

mania back in 2010. You cannot say official opposition when we see a

:01:52.:01:54.

Labour Party that does not know what it believes about Brexit. We are the

:01:55.:02:00.

only party standing up for those 40% of people who voted for roaming. We

:02:01.:02:02.

are out of time. To be continued. The French are at the polls today

:02:03.:02:07.

with the recent fiery TV debate between the two candidates

:02:08.:02:10.

still ringing in their ears. While most of the party leaders have

:02:11.:02:12.

signed up to argue with each other in front of the cameras,

:02:13.:02:17.

the two main contenders for That might impact on the programme's

:02:18.:02:20.

television appeal, but will it have Jonathan Rippon's been looking

:02:21.:02:24.

at a format that has become part of the American electoral landscape,

:02:25.:02:28.

but has a rather more The candidates need no introduction.

:02:29.:02:41.

The first US presidential debate took place in 1960. Nixon came

:02:42.:02:47.

across a shifty and sweaty, compared to the cool and useful Kennedy. Some

:02:48.:02:53.

women cost the election. In the last year's debates, many thought Hillary

:02:54.:02:55.

Clinton outperformed Donald Trump year's debates, many thought Hillary

:02:56.:02:58.

but he still won the election. Donald Trump is not in charge of the

:02:59.:03:03.

law in our country. Because you would be in jail how important are

:03:04.:03:10.

the TV debates? Britain's first was in 2010. With leaders from the three

:03:11.:03:16.

main UK parties at the time. The SNP were not happy at being excluded and

:03:17.:03:21.

went to court. If they had won, the BBC faced having to black out the

:03:22.:03:25.

debate to viewers in Scotland. We are pleased to be able to bring the

:03:26.:03:28.

prime ministerial debates to the people of Scotland and in that

:03:29.:03:34.

regard we take responsibility in terms of due impartiality, fairness

:03:35.:03:39.

and independence very seriously. Nicola Sturgeon, deputy leader of

:03:40.:03:45.

the SNP at the time, had to watch the debate on TV. What a difference

:03:46.:03:49.

a few years makes. In 2015 David Cameron was regularly pursued by a

:03:50.:03:54.

chicken as he tried to dodge another debate. Eventually he relented but

:03:55.:03:58.

on condition that every other leader to part two. Nicola Sturgeon's

:03:59.:04:02.

performance was judged as a success and her party went on to landslide

:04:03.:04:06.

vote today in Scotland. But with the two events related? Less than two

:04:07.:04:11.

years later and it is line again. Well it is for some. We will not be

:04:12.:04:17.

doing the TV debates. Theresa May has made it clear she will not take

:04:18.:04:22.

part in a TV debate. She says it is about leadership barters refusing to

:04:23.:04:27.

defend her record in television debates. Jeremy Corbyn has since

:04:28.:04:32.

decided he will not be taking part either. ITV is going ahead without

:04:33.:04:35.

decided he will not be taking part the Labour or Tory leaders. The BBC

:04:36.:04:42.

says that no leader should stop a programme in the people's interests.

:04:43.:04:51.

Many now believe the real debate has moved online and the major parties

:04:52.:04:55.

are expected to spend millions on a social media campaigns this time

:04:56.:04:56.

around. Well, joining me now from London

:04:57.:04:58.

is Professor Charlie Beckett from the LSE's department

:04:59.:05:02.

of media and communications. The obvious question is do these

:05:03.:05:12.

things make a blind bit of difference? Television is important.

:05:13.:05:15.

things make a blind bit of Photos tell us that is where they

:05:16.:05:19.

get most of their information and the TV debates are the most dramatic

:05:20.:05:23.

form of political television, it is where the TV can really reach out to

:05:24.:05:28.

people who are not the kind of people who will watch a programme.

:05:29.:05:41.

We have just been talking to a Liberal Democrat who said Clegg

:05:42.:05:45.

mania is back, but arguably it never arrived. The Lib Dems didn't appear

:05:46.:05:49.

to get actually much of an update from it in the general election that

:05:50.:05:56.

followed. No, it may not have translated into votes, but it

:05:57.:05:59.

certainly made it a much more interesting campaign, just as Nicola

:06:00.:06:02.

Sturgeon did last time around, when suddenly the rest of the UK were

:06:03.:06:07.

introduced to her. That may have had a negative impact, because the

:06:08.:06:11.

Tories put out a scary story about the SMP and Labour. I think it

:06:12.:06:14.

animates the campaigns, even if it doesn't change the results. That's

:06:15.:06:22.

the most important point of media during the campaigns. Democracy is

:06:23.:06:24.

the most important point of media not just about the result, the ideal

:06:25.:06:27.

that we have a proper conversation, including with the leaders. I wonder

:06:28.:06:33.

if journalists and commentators interpret this, because what happens

:06:34.:06:37.

is you have the TV debate and be hacked and what they mean. But for

:06:38.:06:41.

example during the American presidential campaign, everyone said

:06:42.:06:47.

Tom was full and anyone the election. Was it that he did better

:06:48.:06:51.

because he is somehow by other means convinced people? -- Donald Trump

:06:52.:06:56.

was full. Or is it that sitting watching it, all the commentators

:06:57.:07:01.

misinterpreted what the American people absolutely, journalists over

:07:02.:07:06.

interpret. The love the drama, there it is. They would at the

:07:07.:07:13.

personalities, they look at the glitches. They miss out the basic

:07:14.:07:14.

messages. Thinking about David glitches. They miss out the basic

:07:15.:07:20.

Cameron, when you look to the most serious polls, David Cameron got his

:07:21.:07:24.

basic point across. It's not really about changing things overnight,

:07:25.:07:27.

it's about getting the fundamental messages about your character and

:07:28.:07:32.

your policies indeed out to a much wider audience. You think that

:07:33.:07:37.

Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen debate has had any effect in France?

:07:38.:07:44.

That was extraordinary. Each debate is different. I think that there are

:07:45.:07:49.

people were put off by the hostility that the two of them showed each

:07:50.:07:53.

other. It was a nominal, it was 18 million people watching. --

:07:54.:08:00.

phenomenal. It is up to the politicians, but people should have

:08:01.:08:05.

that option. These things are established in America and the are

:08:06.:08:08.

established in France. We have got used to them, but they have not

:08:09.:08:11.

really been established in the same way here. Do you think that will

:08:12.:08:16.

continue will get a stage soon whether just has to be one of these

:08:17.:08:20.

debates? I am afraid we have no rules, regulations, there is no

:08:21.:08:26.

obligation on the politicians to do them. I think broadcasters will

:08:27.:08:29.

always want to do them and sometimes in Scotland you will get everyone

:08:30.:08:33.

turning up, but of course, you cannot blame the politicians for

:08:34.:08:36.

making political decisions. Theresa May does not want to take any kind

:08:37.:08:39.

of risk. You can't force her to take part. Thank you very much indeed for

:08:40.:08:42.

that. No... Now it's time to take a look

:08:43.:08:45.

back and what's coming This week I'm joined

:08:46.:08:47.

by Kathleen Nutt, journalist with National and the political

:08:48.:08:55.

editor of the Daily TV debates, Kathleen Nutt, what do

:08:56.:09:12.

you make them? I think they are a very important part of the election

:09:13.:09:18.

campaign. Add a element of excitement and drama to a campaign

:09:19.:09:22.

and pull people in who may be our not interested in politics, but by

:09:23.:09:26.

then watching the debates, they will learn about the personality, the

:09:27.:09:38.

policies, and then that will make volley may prompt and vote and

:09:39.:09:41.

increase turnout. Theresa May does not see it like that. She prefers to

:09:42.:09:47.

engage with voters in a much more controlled and safe environment. And

:09:48.:09:51.

also, there are only three words you need to know, strong, stable,

:09:52.:09:56.

Government. What is in it for her by mixing that up? I would say, if you

:09:57.:10:04.

are a strong leader, you should be out there debating with your

:10:05.:10:09.

opponents on TV. What do you think? Cyanide she's not going to take the

:10:10.:10:11.

risk. The Beatles being as they are, there is no need. I think there is a

:10:12.:10:20.

risk there. -- with the polls being as they are. Nicholas Turgeon's in

:10:21.:10:28.

the 2015 leaders debate did her a lot of good here. -- Nicola

:10:29.:10:33.

Sturgeon. Except the dynamic of that election. It was that SNP and Labour

:10:34.:10:41.

are going to gang up. Local election results, Labour it was awful, but

:10:42.:10:45.

John Curtis has been making the point this morning has indeed have

:10:46.:10:48.

various representatives of the Labour Party that the polls said

:10:49.:10:55.

they were about 17 points ahead, in England and Wales it was 11 point

:10:56.:11:01.

times. Their argument is that this is terrible. We are not trying to

:11:02.:11:05.

deny that, but it is not as bad... We are not in this territory where

:11:06.:11:08.

Labour are going to be completely wiped out either in England or

:11:09.:11:16.

Scotland. Real 's. They are partially benefiting in comparison

:11:17.:11:21.

to 2012. It was very bad. The voting system helped them a little bit more

:11:22.:11:26.

than in 2015 where they lost all MPs but one. This time, the nature of

:11:27.:11:29.

the voting system meant they were always going to get the second

:11:30.:11:35.

preferences. When we are looking to the general election, it looks like

:11:36.:11:39.

in terms of real votes, they are not far behind we are Ed Miliband was.

:11:40.:11:47.

Despite everyone think Jeremy Corbyn is the terrible leader. In Scotland,

:11:48.:11:54.

I suspect that is true. But they are quite far behind we are Ed Miliband

:11:55.:11:59.

was in England. What do you make of that, Kathleen Nutt? You can see we

:12:00.:12:04.

are the biggest party, this is a great victory for us. I still think

:12:05.:12:09.

the SNP won the Government elections. They will remain the

:12:10.:12:14.

biggest party in local government in Scotland and in some ways, the local

:12:15.:12:17.

government elections reflected the Scotland and in some ways, the local

:12:18.:12:21.

result of the Holyrood elections last year. With Tories pushing

:12:22.:12:28.

Labour into third place. I think the loss of the Tories will have helped

:12:29.:12:35.

since the EU referendum last year and some of the 38% of auditors

:12:36.:12:39.

reported for Brexit Wooler piled on behind the Tories. -- 32% of voters

:12:40.:12:48.

who voted for Brexit will have piled in behind the Tories. I think it is

:12:49.:12:52.

also a wake-up call for the SNP, they won it, but with 33% share of

:12:53.:13:00.

the vote rather than... This has become a great mystery. As I

:13:01.:13:06.

understand it was 33% of the SNP. It was 24 but the Conservatives and 24

:13:07.:13:16.

Labour. -- 20 four Labour. There are so many independent candidates that

:13:17.:13:20.

distort it a bit. It is quickly that Nicola Sturgeon 's Coll for a second

:13:21.:13:24.

independence referendum has motivated voters. A lot of those

:13:25.:13:29.

voters have chosen the Tories further best outlet for their anger

:13:30.:13:31.

at the prospect of another referendum. That changes the dynamic

:13:32.:13:37.

on the last two elections. In the immediate aftermath of the

:13:38.:13:39.

independence referendum, we had a general election and yes voters were

:13:40.:13:43.

angry and came out in big numbers. It is the same in 2016. I'm not sure

:13:44.:13:49.

it will be the same next month. Thank you both very much.

:13:50.:13:50.

I'll be back at the same time next week.

:13:51.:13:54.

We don't know what it is, but she definitely has... Something.

:13:55.:14:07.

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