23/04/2017 Sunday Politics South East

It's Sunday afternoon - this is the Sunday Politics.

Jeremy Corbyn wants to give everyone in Britain four

extra bank holidays - but is the Labour leader up

to being Prime Minister if he wins the election in just

Theresa May says she wants a stronger hand to deliver Brexit -

how will the Conservatives go about getting the bigger

I'll be asking Party Chairman, Patrick McLoughlin.

And I've been in Paris where voters are going to the polls in first

round of the French Presidential election - what could be the impact

And in the South East: unpredictable of contests?

This region is a political sea of blue, so where will

the big battles be here and could any of our seats

Or feel they may not like it but the Tories

And with me has always ready for the marathon task of covering a snap

general election, even working on bank holidays, the best and

brightest political panel in the business. David Wooding, Polly

Toynbee and Toby Young. So Labour's big announcement this

morning was a crowd pleaser. Four more rainy bank

holidays to enjoy - one for each of the patron saints

of England, Scotland, But Mr Corbyn probably won't be

getting the time off work if he wins And on The Andrew Marr Show this

morning he was asked what he would do as Prime Minister

if the security services asked him to authorise a drone strike

on the leader of Islamic State. What I'd tell them is,

give me the information you've got, tell me how accurate that is,

tell me what you I'm asking you about decisions you

would take as Prime Minister. Can I take you back

to the whole point? Is the objective

to start more strikes that may kill many innocent

people, as has happened? Do you think killing

the leader of Isis would be I think the leader of Isis not

being around would be helpful, and I'm no supporter or defender

in any way of Isis. But I would also argue that

the bombing campaign has killed a of whom were virtually prisoners of

Isis. So you've got to think

about these things. Mr Corbyn earlier. David, is his

reply refreshing damaging? It is damaging. He has clearly been

freaked to the fire already in the first week, there will be lots of

questions on his suitability as a leader and the damage it could cause

to our national security over the weeks ahead and Andrew Marr has cut

straight to the chase here. The other thing, of course, is the

letters of last resort, one of the first duties of a Prime Minister

when he walks into No 10 is to sign these letters on his own, on or --

or on her own in a room, a very lonely moment, to decide whether he

should press the nuclear button and that goes in the Vanguard submarines

and is opened in the event of a strike and he has dodged a question

so many times. One must wonder what he would do that. He has to make

these decisions as Prime Minister. On the Isis point, refreshing or

damaging? It sure is his base, the people who support him, that's the

sort of thing they support info and maybe his tactic is that's all he's

going to get, that is what the polls seem to suggest, in which case they

will be pleased, and say yes, the man is a man for these who doesn't

press buttons and shoot people down. But if you want to win you have to

deal with your own weaknesses and reach out to other people. I think

most people would say that's not somebody who could defend the

country. I wonder if he was being totally honest in saying he would

consider it he would ask for more information. He has previously been

on the record as being against drone strikes in principle, he's

campaigned against them, he wants to abolish drones. I think Andrew Marr

let him off saying it was a drone strike rather than a Navy SEAL or

SAS operation and he had the fact that they could be collateral

damage. We that's not his position because he condemned the

assassination of Osama Bin Laden even though there was no collateral

damage. David is right on the Trident point, he fetched the

question. We heard Niall Griffiths on this very show saying Trident,

the renewal of Trident, would be in the next Labour Party manifesto. It

turns out now we don't know and when he was asked he said that remains to

be seen, his re-opened a can of worms. What he has said about

Trident which was extraordinary was, we will rebuild the submarines but

not have any nukes on them which is expensive and useless. And of course

the Labour Party were forced soon after that interview to put out a

statement saying it is Labour Party policy to renew Trident. So where

are we? Do we know what the party's policy is? It is to renew Trident

but he has started this review which involves looking at it all again. We

know he is a unilateralist to start with but whether he can force this

through is dubious. Does it matter, though, if the party policy is in

favour of Trident, if the leader is not? The potential Prime Minister is

not? They split three ways when they went to vote on it in the Commons.

The party agreed they were pro-Trident and when it came to the

vote they split three ways. I think it's difficult for them, it's always

been a really difficult issue for Labour. The question is whether you

want to seal off your negatives, whether you really want to try and

reach out to people. There are an awful lot of people who will like

what he said, there are an awful lot of people that think we have been

involved in terrible wars, we have wasted a lot of money and blood and

let's just get back from the whole thing, let's retreat from the world

and not try punching above our weight. There is something to be

said for that and it is a reasonable argument. He's been true to himself

on this. I think he is and Polly is right, lots of people will agree

with him, not enough to win a general election, the latest ComRes

poll shows Tories on 50% and Labour on 25 and as my colleague James

Forsyth in the Spectator said if this was a boxing match it would

have been stopped by now by the revelry. We are not stopping, we are

going on. So the political parties have had

to move into election mode Stand by for battle buses,

mail shots and your social media timeline being bombarded

by political propoganda. But none of this comes cheap -

Adam's been doing his sums. Democracy is priceless but those

planes, trains and automobiles used in the last election cost money

and we know exactly how much, thanks to the Electoral

Commission database. The Conservatives flew David Cameron

to every part of the UK in one day on a private plane costing ?29,000,

in-flight meals extra. They shelled out ?1.2 million

for adverts on Facebook. The most expensive item was their

election guru Lynton Crosby. They bought ?2.4 million worth

of advice and research from his firm Labour's biggest expenditure

was on good old-fashioned leaflets, costing ?7.4 million

to print and deliver. Hope they didn't go straight

into the recycling. Cheap for all the

enjoyment it gave us. To turn a normal minibus

into Harriet Harman's pink bus Nick Clegg toured the country doing

all manner of stunts transported although the party got a grand's

discount when it broke down. Ukip's then leader Nigel Farage

was accompanied by bodyguards Nicola Sturgeon's chopper

cost the SNP ?35,450. Plaid Cymru spent just over

?1,000 on media training And the Greens spent ?6,912

promoting their tweets. It adds up to a grand total

for all the parties of ?37,560,039. Jabbing at my calculator that works

out at less than ?1 per voter. Adam Fleming there -

and joining me now is the man responsible for the Conservative

election campaigns - for the locals next month

and the general election in June - Welcome to the programme. The Crown

Prosecution Service is reviewing evidence from 14 police forces that

your party breached election spending rules on multiple occasions

in the last election. What are you going to do differently this time?

Well, the battle buses are part of the National campaign spend. You saw

them just on the shot that you did, all three parties had those battle

buses so that's why we believe they were part of the national spend and

it was declared that way. At least 30 people in your party, MPs and

agents, being investigated because they may not have been right to

include it in the national spend. Are you saying you are going to do

nothing differently this time? You asked me about last time and the way

the position is... Was. I asked you about this time. We will take a

careful count and make sure that everything that we do is within the

law. But as I say, the last election, all three parties had

battle buses. It is your party that above all has been investigated by

14 police forces. You must surely be taking stock of that and working out

how to do some things differently. You are being investigated because

you put stuff on the National Ledger which should have been on the local

constituency ledger. Are you looking at that again? All of the parties

had battle buses and they all put them on their national spend. I

don't think any of the parties put them on the local spend. The other

battle buses were not full of their party activists. Your party stuffed

these battle buses with activists and took them to constituencies.

That's the difference. And I ask again, what is different this time?

Are you going to run the risk of being investigated yet again? We

believe that we fully compliant with the electoral law as it was. What

will happen if one of these, or two or three or four or five of these 30

people, Tory MPs, or agents running campaigns are charged during the

campaign? As I say I believe we properly declared our election

expenses. What happens if they are charged? You asking me a

hypothetical question, the importance of this election is about

who is in Downing Street in seven weeks' time. Let me clarify this,

you maintain that in 2015 you did nothing wrong with how you allocated

the cost and the activities of the battle buses and you would do

exactly the same this time round? What we did at the last election we

believe fully complied with the law. So the battle buses this time,

stocked full of activists, will still be charged to the national

campaign even when they go to local constituencies? Will they? We will

be looking at the way we do it, there is new guidance from the

Electoral Commission out and we will look at that guidance. It is not the

guidance, it is the lawful stop the Electoral Commission said that, if

you look at the report they did on us, they said there was one area

where we had over claimed, over declared, and another area we had

and declared. We haven't worked out what to do

yet, have you? We will get on with the campaign and

start the campaign and I'm looking forward to the campaign.

I'm trying to work out of the campaign is going to be legal or not

because last time it seems it could have been illegal.

I am sure the campaign will be legal.

You started the campaign warning about the prospect of, the coalition

of chaos. Mr Corbyn has ruled out a post-election coalition with the SNP

and so have the Lib Dems so who is going to be in this coalition?

Vince Cable said he was looking towards a possible coalition trying

to stop a Conservative government. Is not the leader of the Lib Dems.

He's an important voice in the Lib Dems. Who will be in it? Let's see

because of the Conservative Party is not re-elected with a strong

majority, what will happen? There will be a coalition stopping us

doing the things we need to do. Who will be in it? It will be a

coalition of the Labour Party, the SNP and the Liberal party. They have

ruled it out. I think they would not rule it out if that was the

situation. Like Theresa May not ruling out an election and then

changing her mind? The things the Prime Minister said were very clear,

once she had served Article 50 there was an opportunity, as we know

today, there is going to be the start of a new government formed in

France and in September we have the German elections. So it was quite

right that we didn't get ourselves boxed into a timetable. That is why

the Prime Minister took the view that they should be a general

election to give her full strength of an electoral mandate when it

comes to those negotiations. What about Mr Corbyn's plan for four new

bank holidays, good idea? I'm not... If we get Corbyn in No 10 Downing St

we will have a permanent bank holiday of the United Kingdom. We

will have fewer bank holidays of most other major nations, most about

major wealthy nations. What about at least one more? Well, look, he's

talked about four bank holidays. Today would be a bank holiday and

next Monday would be a bank holiday and the other week was a bank

holiday too. I don't think it's very well thought out. It sounded more to

me something like you get in school mock elections rather than proper

elections. Your party is the self-styled party of the workers and

you have no plans to give the workers even one extra bank holiday?

What we want to do is ensure Britain is a strong economy and building on

the jobs that we have created since 2010. We were told that by reducing

public expenditure unemployment in this country would go up,

unemployment has gone down and the number of jobs have gone up

substantially. But no more bank holidays? Well, we will make our

manifesto in due course but I don't think four bank holidays held in

April, March and November are very attractive to people. When Ed

Miliband as leader of the Labour Party suggested the government

should control energy prices by capping them, the Conservatives

described that as almost Communist and central planning. Do still take

that view? You'll see what we have to say on energy prices. I didn't

you about that, I asked you if you take the view... The Prime Minister

made a speech at the Conservative Spring conference in which she

outlined her dissatisfaction about people who are kept locked on a

standard tariff and those are the issues we will address in the next

few weeks when the manifesto was published.

Would that be an act of communism? You will need to see what we say

when we set out the policies. It could be. You could put a Communist

act into your manifesto? I don't think you'll find a Communist

manifesto in a Conservative manifesto which will be launched...

You are planning to control prices? We will address what we think is

unfairness in the energy market. Mr Jeremy Corbyn was reluctant this

morning to sanction a drone strike. You heard us talking about it

earlier against the leader of Islamic State if our intelligence

services identified him. What would it achieve? When the Prime Minister

gets certain advice in the national interests, she has to act been that.

We've seen with Theresa May in her time as Home Secretary and Prime

Minister, she's not afraid to take those very difficult decisions. What

we say this morning from Jeremy Corbyn was a his tans, a reluctance.

I don't think that serves the country well. What would it achieve

if we take out the head of Islamic State he's replaced by somebody

else. It brings their organisation into difficulties. It undermines

their organisation. It shows we'll take every measure to undo an

organisation which has organised terrorism in different parts of

Europe, the UK. I think it is absolutely right the Prime Minister

is prepared to take those kind of measures. Jeremy Corbyn said he

wasn't prepared to take that. Because he wasn't sure what it would

achieve. The Obama administration launched hundreds of drone strikes

in various war zones and we in the west are still under attack on a

regular basis. Mr Corbyn's basis was what would it achieve? It would

achieve a safer position for the UK overall. The war on terrorists. But

the Westminster attack, Paris has just been attacked again? There's

been attacks which have been stopped by the intelligence services. We

must do all we can to support them. The question was about drone

strikes. Whether it is drone strikes or other action, we have to be

prepared to act. Let's move on to Brexit. It is the major reason the

Prime Minister's called the election? Not the only within but

the main reason? It is one of the reasons. Now we start the two-year

negotiations and then a year afterwards. Also the way in which

certain people said they would try to use in the House of Lords or

House of Commons to prevent us making progress. I think you'll put

in your manifesto, it is the Government's policy, the Brexit

negotiating position will be no more freedom of movement. Leave the

single market and no longer under the jurisdiction Europe. You expect

every Tory MP to fight on that manifesto. What will you do with Ken

Clarke and Anna? They will have fought on their manifesto. They will

understand the Prime Minister has the authority of the ballot box

behind them. Will they fight the election on these positions? I'm

sure they'll fight the election supporting the election of a

Conservative Government and it's manifesto will quite clearly set

out... You know they're against these positions. Ken Clarke has a

prod tradition of expressing a certain view. Overall, the party's

manifesto, it is not just individuals like Ken Clarke, it is

what happens as far as the House of Lords are concerned, people said

they'd use the House of Lords to prevent certain measures. You're the

party chairman, will it be possible for people like Ken Clarke to fight

this election under the Conservative ticket without sub describing to all

-- subscribing to all of these Brexit conditions? Ken Clarke will

fight as Conservative candidates. That wasn't my question. I know

that. Will they be allowed to fight it on their own ticket and not

subscribe to what is in your manifesto? The manifesto will be

what the Conservative Party fights the General Election on. There will

always be cases where people have had different views on different

parts of the manifesto. That will be the guiding principles for the

party. Philip Hammond says your election promises in 2015, in your

manifesto not to raise taxes tied his hands when it came to managing

the economy. Do you agree with him? No. The simple fact is we have to do

the best things for the economy. We'll set out in our manifesto in a

few weeks' time, what the policies will be for the next Parliament. Can

I clarify, you don't agree with your Chancellor? What Philip was saying

was some of the areas we wants to address as Chancellor, what the

party will do, it will set out all the issues we're fighting on. It

will set out clearly the choice we have in this country. That's the

important thing. Let me put the question to you again. Philip

Hammond said this week your election promise in 2015 not to raise taxes

had tied his hands when it came to managing the economy. I ask you, do

you agree with him? You said no. Philip expressed his view as to what

he would like. What I'm saying is in a few weeks' time we'll set the

manifesto which will set the policies, agreed with the the

Cabinet. He's Chancellor. Doesn't he determine what the economic part of

the manifesto is? We'll talk about that in due course. Will you have a

lock on the taxes that you locked in 2015 on income tax, VAT, national

insurance? That will be decided. You'll see that when we publish the

manifesto in a few weeks' time. Will you rule out the possibility taxes

may have to rise under a future Conservative Party? Conservative

Government. We've taken four million people out of tax. Now, on average,

people are paying ?1200 less tax than they were on the same salaries

in 2010. I'm very provide of that. I can assure you, the Conservative

Party will want to see taxes reduced. It is the Labour Party

which will put up taxes. We have the evidence where this he did so.

Council tax went up by over 100%. You haven't reduced the tax burden

as a percentage of the GDP is now going to reach its highest level

since the mid-180s which was when Conservatives were in power. The tax

burden in this country under your Government is rising? We've more

people paying taxes which is something, because we've a growing

economy and more people... What about the tax band? You said you

reduced the tax burden on your own Government's figures is rising? We

have reduced the tax burden. The threshold at which people start

paying. These are tax rates not the tax burden. It is rising. The tax

rates have been reduced. You said tax burden. Perhaps I misspoke. Tax

rates have been reduced. We'll leave it there. No doubt we'll speak again

between now and June Is France now about to make it

a hat-trick of shocks The prospect terrifies

the governing elite in Paris. But they're no less scared

in Brussels and Berlin, given what it could mean

for the whole EU project, never mind the huge potential impact

on our own Brexit negotiations. 11 candidates are contesting

the first round of the presidential Only the top two will go forward

to the run-off on May 7th. For the first time since General De

Gaulle created the fifth Republic in 1958, it's perfectly possible that

no candidate from the ruling parties of the centre-left or the

centre-right will even make it The election has been dominated by

the hard right in the shape of the who's never been elected

to anything and only started his own party

a few months ago. And the far left in the form

of Jean-Luc Melenchon, a former Trotskyite who has surged

in the final weeks of the campaign. The only candidate left from the

traditional governing parties is the centre-right's

Francois Fillon and he's been struggling to stay in

the race ever since it was revealed that his Welsh wife was being paid

at generous public expense for a job I've just come across

this magazine cover and it kind of sums up the mood

of the French people. It's got the five main candidates

for President here but it calls them the biggest liar, the biggest cheat,

the biggest traitor, the most paranoid, the biggest demagogue,

and it says they are the winners The four leading candidates,

Le Pen, Melenchon, Macron and Fillon, or in with a chance

of making it to the second round. Only a couple of points separates

them in the polls, Frankly, no one has a clue what's

going to happen. Of the four, there is a feeling that

two of them may be President But the two of them may not find

themselves in the second round. Somebody said to me that the man or

woman on the Paris Metro has as much a chance of knowing

who will win as the greatest experts Because the more expert you are

the more you may be wrong. The country has largely

stagnated for over a decade. One in ten are unemployed,

one in four if you are unlucky Like Britain in the '70s there is

the pervasive stench There are three keywords that come

to mind. Anger, anger at the elite, and in

particular the political elite. And an element of

nostalgia for the past. These three words were decisive

in the Brexit referendum. They are decisive in

the French election. Identity and security has been

as important in this election France is a proud nation, it worries

about its future in Europe It seems bereft of ideas about how

to deal with its largely Muslim migrant population, huge chunks of

which are increasingly divorced It is quite simply exhausted by

the never-ending Islamist terrorist attacks, the latest only days before

voting in the iconic heart of this If Fillon or Macron emerge

victorious then there will be continuity of sorts, though Fillon

will struggle to implement his Thatcherite agenda and Macron will

not be able to count on the support of the French parliament, the

National Assembly, for his reforms. But if it's Le Pen or Jean-Luc

Melenchon then all bets are off. Both are hardline French

nationalists, anti the euro, anti the European Union, anti-fiscal

discipline, anti the market, Either in the Elysee Palace

would represent an existential Brexit would simply become

a sideshow, the negotiations could just peter out as Brussels

and Berlin had bigger fish to fry. We're joined now from

Paris by the journalist 8th Welcome to the programme.

Overshadowing the voting today was yet another appalling terrorist

attack in Paris on Thursday night. Do we have any indications of how

that's playing into the election? That initially people thought this

has been almost foiled in that the police were there as a ramp up. One

policeman was killed. But the terrorist did not spray the crowd

with bullets. It was seen as not having much of an effect on the

election. This has changed. We now know the policeman who was killed, a

young man about to the promoted, he was at the Bataclan the night of the

terror attack. He was a fighter for LGBT rights. The fact he was

promoted, happy within his job, he has this fresh face. Sudden, he's

one of us. It took perhaps 48 hours for the French to process this. But

now they're angry and this may actually change the game, at least

at the margins. To whose advantage? I would say the two who might

benefit from this are Marine Le Pen, she's been absolutely

anti-immigration, anti-anything. And made no bones about it as she

immediately made rather strange announcement in which she'd said if

she'd been president none of the terror attacks which happened in

France would have happened. Francois Fillon has written a book two years

ago called Combating Islamic Terrorism he's has an organised plan

in his manifesto. Unlike Emmanuel Macron who stumbled when he was

asked the evening this happened what he thought, he said, I can't dream

up an anti-terror programme overnight. The question, of course,

that arrows was this is not the sort of thing that's just happened

overnight. It's been unfortunately the fate of France for many years.

Let me ask you this finally, what ever the outcome on May 7th in the

second round, who ever wins, would it be fair to say French politics

will never be the same again? Yes. Absolutely it's a very strange

thing. People have no become really excited about this. You cannot go

anywhere without people discussing heatedly this election. The anger

that was described is very accurate. Very true. There was this feeling as

for the Brexit voters and the Trump voters, vast parts of the people

were being talked down to by people who despised them. This has to

change. If it doesn't change, we cannot predict what the future will

be. We'll know the results or at least the ex-the Poll London time

tonight at 8.00pm. Thank for joining us from the glorious heart of your

city. Now, the Green Party currently has

one MP and they'll be contesting many more seats in June

as well as hoping to increase their presence on councils in

the local elections on 4th May. Launching their campaign

on Thursday, co-leader Caroline Lucas made

a pitch to younger voters. When it comes to young

people they've been But one crucial way they've been

betrayed is by what this generation and this government and the previous

ones have been doing when it comes We know we had the hottest year

on record last year, you know, you almost think what else does

the environment need to be doing All the signs are there

and it is young people who are going to be bearing

the brunt of a wrecked environment and that's why it's so important

that when we come to making that pitch to, yes, the country at large

but to young people in particular, I think climate change,

the environment, looking after our precious resources,

has to be up there. And I'm joined now by the Green

MEP, Molly Scott Cato. Welcome back to the programme.

Promised to scrap university tuition fees, increase NHS funding, rollback

cuts to local councils spending, how much would that cost and how would

you pay for it? Like the other parties we haven't got a costed

manifesto yet, it's only a few days since the election was announced so

I will come back and explain the figures. You don't know? Like every

party we have not produced accosted manifesto yet, we produced one last

time but public spending figures have changed so we're not in a

position to do that but we will be in a week or so. What taxes would

you like to consider raising? We would consider having higher taxes

for the better off in society. I think we need to increase the amount

of tax wealthier people pay. How do you define better off? I'm not

entirely clear what the precise number would be but I think 100,000

people would pay a bit more, 150,000 quite considerably more but the real

focus needs to be on companies avoiding paying taxes. I work on

that a lot in my role in the European Parliament, we see an

enormous amount of tax avoidance by companies moving profits from

country to country and we need European corporation to make that

successful. It has not made much difference yet. We have made lots of

changes. Google turned over $1 billion and only paid 25 million in

taxes last year. There was a significant fine introduced by the

competition commission on Apple and in the case of Google we must change

the laws so that people cannot move profits from country to country.

Everybody wants to do it. But you couldn't face a big spending

programme on the ability to do that. You'd have to increase other taxes.

If you look at the cost of free student tuition, tuition fees and

also maintenance grants to students, that would come in at about 10

billion a year. One way of paying for that would be to remove the

upper threshold on National Insurance, bringing in 20 billion a

year, that's the order of magnitude we are talking about. It is not

vast, and some of the proposals we have... That would be an increase on

the better of tax? National Insurance on people earning...

People earning above 42,000. You would have another 10% tax above

42,000? I can't remember exactly how much the National Insurance rate

changes by. But in government figures it would be 28 billion

raised. I think it is up to 45, a bit more you pay a marginal rate of

40%, you would have them pay a marginal rate of over 50%? We would

put the National Insurance rate on higher incomes the same as it is on

lower incomes. If you are a school head of an English department on 50,

60,000 a year you would face a marginal rate under U of over 50%?

It is not useful to do this as a mental maths exercise but if you

look at other proposals would could have a landlord licensing system,

longer term leases on properties, so young people particularly, but also

older people who rent, could have more security which needn't cost

anything. We could insist on landlords paying for that. The

mental arithmetic seems clear but we will come back to that. How is the

Progressive Alliance coming? It is going well, I have heard of a lot of

interest at local level. Winterset this in contest, context, lots of

progressives are concerned about the crisis in public services, prisons,

social care system, and also about the Tories' hard extreme Brexit they

are threatening. You want the left to come together? Theresa May has

given us opportunity, she has taken a risk because she has problems with

backbenchers, she doesn't think she can get through Brexit with a small

majority so there is an opportunity and we are saying progressives must

come together to corporate, Conservatives are effective at using

the first-past-the-post system and we have to become effective as well.

Do you accept this Progressive Alliance cannot become the

government and Mr Corbyn is the Prime Minister? How could it happen

otherwise? I think that is a secondary question. For me the

primary question is who do people choose to vote for? Aluminium

government afterwards comes after the election. In most countries that

is the case. I understand that but we have the system we have and you

accept this Progressive Alliance cannot be in power and thus mystical

Burmese Prime Minister? Personally I think Mr Corbyn is less of a threat

to the country than Theresa May, she has shown herself to be an

authoritarian leader and she has said she doesn't want to have

dissidents, which I would say is reasonable opposition, and what we

are suggesting at the moment is there is a way of avoiding that very

hard Brexit and damage to public services. You'd be happy to pay the

price of having Mr Corbyn as Prime Minister? I do not see that as a

price. People have the choice of Jeremy Corbyn or Theresa May as

Prime Minister, that's the system that works. You would prefer Mr

Corbyn? I would but votes are translated into seats and the

Progressive Alliance is a step towards that.

It's just gone 3:50pm, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, Wales

and Northern Ireland who leave us now.

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead.

I'm Natalie Graham and this is the Sunday Politics

Nigel Farage won't be standing again for Ukip in South Thanet.

We'll ask where his decision leaves the party he once led.

So, five days after they learnt there was going to be

a snap general election, I'm joined by two candidates who've

Kelly Tolhurst is the Conservative MP for Rochester and Strood,

and Stephen Lloyd is trying to win back his old seat of

We're also joined by Paul Richards, the Labour activist,

Are you tempted to stand as well? Not this time.

So, seven weeks of intense campaigning lie ahead

for my guests and for you, the voters.

The announcement of the general election took many by surprise,

In many of the 29 constituencies here it's a tricky task for them

to select candidates to stand at such short notice.

So what are their respective prospects and which are

The parliamentary political map of this region is distinctly Tory,

with all but two of our 29 MPs being Conservative.

All but four areas voted to leave the EU in the referendum last June.

So there is a snap general election just over six weeks away.

Where will the crucial political battles be here in the South-East?

With Brexit providing a very different context for campaigning,

what will that mean for the main political parties in this region?

Lewes in Sussex is one of those four districts that voted

to remain in the EU, while the Conservative

MP who represents the constituency voted to leave.

Maria Caulfield doesn't think that will be a major factor

when the constituents go to the polls this June.

I had one vote in that referendum, my vote was no more or no less

Most remain voters say to me, look, the country voted,

I am not necessarily happy with that vote, but let's make the best of it

and get the best possible deal for the country.

I don't think this is a Brexit election, it is more than that,

it is about who's best to lead this country.

In 2015, the Liberal Democrats lost the seats of Lewes and Eastbourne.

They plan on winning them back and hope to make gains in areas

where there was strong support for remaining in the EU.

The parties selected candidates in constituencies

Including in Maidstone, another one of its target seats.

Different to 2015 is that we stand against a hard Brexit.

We need to make sure that Theresa May does not take us out

of the single market, because it risks jobs and it risks

We will be coming off the back of county council

elections and we are looking at some gains there.

We can really stand for the local people.

Brighton and Hove, another staunchly remain area,

The region's only two opposition MPs, one Green and one Labour,

While the Conservative MP for here in Brighton Kempton has

the smallest majority in the South East of just 690 votes.

Labour will fight hard to win back that seat

and hold Hove and Portslade, another marginal constituency,

which Peter Kyle gained from the Tories two years ago.

This week the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, vowed to overturn

the rigged system and looks set to run an anti-establishment

Will that message help the party win in this region?

I have not hidden the fact in the past that I would prefer us

to be going into this general election with a different leader,

but this election is not going to be about one thing.

It is not going to be about Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn,

or about Brexit or any other one single issue.

It is going to be a very complex election.

I believe it is going to be a maverick election,

where you are going to see very surprising results up

This weekend there was a rally in the city by campaigners in favour

of a so-called progressive alliance between the Greens,

The MP for Brighton Pavilion is leading the call for an electoral

pact in key seats where splitting the vote could allow

We're not talking about a single electoral pact, what we're talking

about is the possibility for collaboration and cooperation

at a local level in just probably a handful of constituencies.

The purpose of doing that is to make sure

that the anti-Tory vote is not split.

It is going to be down to local parties, it is nothing

that is being imposed from the top, but certainly discussions

are happening from Brighton to Bognor and right up

So can the other parties make any waves in this sea of Conservative

Or will the Prime Minister ride the electoral storm and come out

stronger to steer a clear course for Brexit?

We can talk about Brexit first. Kelly, nearly half the Conservative

MPs in the south-east voted to remain. But in many seats the voters

overwhelmingly wanted to leave. Are you just hoping they will forgive

and forget? And voted to trigger Article 50 in the House of Commons

and everything I have said since the referendum and as my constituents

were very clear they wanted to leave Europe I have supported that. I took

a pragmatic decision about how I use my individual vote, but we are

leaving Europe and I am supportive of Brexit and backing the Prime

Minister to get her re-elected so she can go back and do this

negotiation. Do you not think that could play well for Ukip who held

the seat before you won it? People who voted Ukip and wanted Brexit,

the right choice for them is to vote Conservative because Theresa May, a

strong and credible leader, that will give her the ability to go into

Europe and make that negotiation. If people voted Ukip to leave Europe,

the only sensible choice is conservative. The Lib Dems are

hoping to make a comeback under the remain banner. What is your message

to people in Maidstone who voted to leave the EU? I wanted to remain. I

debated in Eastbourne and I felt quite strongly and feel quite

strongly that economically it would be better for our nation. I'll still

give my word during the referendum that I would respect the result and

that is what I am going to do. I told them, I promised the people of

Eastbourne that I would respect the results of the referendum. If I make

a promise, I keep it. I will stick to that as I said I would. That

means I will not be voting for a second referendum or opposing

Brexit. If I am elected I will be lobbying the Government to make sure

that we get the best deal possible for Brexit. But I will not break my

word to the people of the sport. Presumably Labour hoping to win

seats, marginal areas that voted to remain, but Jeremy Corbyn has ruled

out a second referendum and this morning he was saying that his party

was divided on Europe. If you voted to remain in Brighton surely you

would be tempted to vote for the Lib Dems. I think progressive alliances

are just excuses not to vote Labour and they are normally put forward by

smaller parties. If you are Labour vote you should vote for Labour

candidates in the elections. It is not going to be just about Brexit,

it will be about other issues as well. We can talk about progressive

alliances. For you, I deal with the Green Party must be tempting? It

would get you over the line in seats like Maidstone. At the last election

Labour got over 7% and the Green Party got 2%. A few people have

contacted me about a progressive alliance, but you know there is only

one person who could beat the Tory MP in this constituency and it is

me. If we want to take a seat of the Tories, I will respect their vote. I

know they will be loaning it to me, but they vote for me or the Tory

whirlwind. So not a formal alliance but unofficial deals? People are

engaged with the selection. I was talking to Kelly earlier about

people being fed up for another election. In Eastbourne people have

been very kind. Last night people were saying to me they were dilated

I was standing. Everyone tells us this during a general election.

People have contacted me because they are engaged. I am saying to

them, and I mean this, I am the only one who can beat the Tory MP in

Eastbourne. Lend me your vote and I will respect it. It is the only way

it will happen. In your seat it could be your worst nightmare, you

could lose seats to the opposition? This is a choice about who we want

to be the leader and to be in Europe negotiating to make sure we get the

right deal in Europe for the British people and my constituency. Many

people voted out and may feel other parties will do it better. I believe

the Conservatives have the only credible plan to move that forward.

I take Stephen 's personal point of view, but his widow wants to

destruct the Brexit process. Post leader wants Brexit to feel, which

is not in the national interest. Who is the biggest threat to your party,

Labour or Ukip? As with all elections, who knows? It is the job

of the electorate to decide and have their say. I think, myself included,

I will not be taking anything for granted. We can talk about Labour.

It will be interesting in Brighton and all. He does not have a very

large majority. He has come into conflict with members of his local

party who are Jeremy Corbyn fans. How do you think that will play out?

Peter Kyle has spent two years as an excellent MP and working with many

people, other than the discontent is causing trouble in the party. What

are the implications for him? If you have an embedded MP who's got into

every organisation and has good support, he can transcend the Labour

Party and the appalling and do better than the polling suggests.

One of the upsets of the night will be Peter Kyle winning. It would be a

huge coup for Jeremy Corbyn to get an MP into that marginal seat, a

majority of only 694 the Conservatives. We do not know who

will be selected for that seat. The Labour candidate stands a chance

that it will be very difficult. What about Jeremy Corbyn's message so

but his antiestablishment message. but his antiestablishment message.

Today Theresa May parked her tanks on his lawn by talking about a cap

on energy bills. How will that play out in the south-east? It is a

massive political experiments. Can you run an election from the left

and win over the kind of photos to voted Labour in the 1890s? We will

find out in seven weeks. -- in the 1990s. The victory will be entirely

down to Jeremy Corbyn. Let's move on to discuss Ukip's

fortunes in the South East. There was much speculation

about whether Nigel Farage, the MEP and former party leader,

would stand again in South Thanet - the seat he narrowly lost

to the Conservatives two years ago. On Thursday, he announced

he wouldn't try for the eighth time to become an MP,

in Kent or anywhere else. It was one of the biggest stories

of the 2015 general election. Nigel Farage missed out by less

than 3,000 votes in his attempt The campaign was hard fought

by both the Tories and Ukip in the Kent coastal seat,

home to the country's Speaking on BBC South East Today,

Mr Farage has explained his decision What would I do as a backbench MP

compared to the role that I have leading a group in the European

Parliament? Remember this, two years

of Brexit negotiations, the UK Parliament has nothing to do

with the process, the European Parliament has

everything to do with it, I feel I can use my platform

there far more effectively. What will Nigel Farage's decision

mean for Ukip's political prospects? Farage made a difference

in South Thanet last time and certainly his name recognition

allowed Ukip to run the Tories I think it will be a much more

difficult seat for Ukip this time around, and I think

the Conservatives On the streets of Ramsgate

there was little surprise I don't think he wants to have

another disappointment and he might as well stay in Brussels

where I think he can do better good. He is nothing now anyway,

as far as it goes. He wanted Brexit, we voted

for it, that's it. This is a democracy,

the people have made their choice, As far as Nigel is concerned,

he is going to sit like we are The former Ukip leader

says he will continue to support his fellow colleagues,

but, without Nigel Farage as a candidate at the election,

will Ukip lose its appeal for some Joining us now is Harriet Yeo,

who was a Ukip candidate in Folkestone and

Hythe two years ago. So without Nigel Farage,

how are you going to With Paul Nuttall. Is he is going to

stand? I'm talking about as a leader, Paul Nuttall has some

fantastic ideas for the party. I think with home we stand a good

chance of picking up some seats. Would you like him to stand in South

Thanet? I would like him to stand where he feels most comfortable. He

Southerner but then I go up north Southerner but then I go up north

that is different. He has to be where he feels comfortable. Would

you like to stand in South Thanet? I know there are some local candidates

already there. Last time I said I was doing nothing but I finished

doing something, so who knows. Paul Nuttall indicated this morning that

you should not field candidates in seats with a strong Brexit

conservative. The MP for South Thanet used to belong to your party.

Why would you stand against him? I think there are some other issues

there, that is an exceptional case. We need Ukip MPs to hold the

Conservatives to account, to make sure that Brexit is delivered. Nigel

Farage doesn't think that is essential now. He would rather work

in Brussels. He is finishing off the job he started. He has so much

energy and he wants to see this finished and the right deal and

being in the European Parliament to make sure that that right deal is

got. You have lost Nigel Farage as a candidate. Douglas Carswell and Mark

reckless, they are both gone. As Douglas Carswell said yesterday, is

the job done now for Ukip in British politics? We have come to the end of

the beginning and now we are at the beginning of the next phase, which

is making sure we have the right policies in place to ensure a good,

strong and prosperous Brexit for the United Kingdom. Do you have enough

time to come up with other policies in the next six weeks? I know people

are working on that and they will be good and strong to benefit Britain.

Does this mean you are more likely to hold South Thanet. The sitting MP

is being investigated for his expenditure in the last election and

doorstep. As I said earlier, I think doorstep. As I said earlier, I think

we are coming out of Europe and we need to have a strong leader doing

that negotiation. For the people of South Thanet their only option, in

my view, is to vote Conservative. Without Nigel Farage does that mean

you are home and dry? It was a slimmer wind. You can never tell. On

the doorstep of people who would normally vote Ukip want to have that

strong Brexit and make sure we get the best deal then my view is to

answer for the Conservatives. The MP says he did nothing wrong when it

comes to the election expenditure. Could Labour went back seat that

they held under Tony Blair? It is not impossible. There is a stench of

corruption hanging over that candidate. You do not know what is

going to happen. A lot of those seats were Labour not very long ago.

There are new voters coming through as well. Labour do not have any

candidates elected. This is a crisis. It is not a crisis because

there are plenty of people willing to step up. There are always plenty

of people who want to serve their community in that way. People always

want to be candidates, so there will be good candidates in place. If you

stood in 2015 and you probably second mortgage to your home and

have just paid your debts off now. I can understand why people do not

want to do it. At to start from scratch with six or seven weeks ago,

tell you it is just a legal tell you it is just a legal

necessity to have a candidate. Not very reassuring for the people

sitting next to you. They Conservative Party have been caught

out by their own leader. I know you have not been officially selected

yet, but in Hove it is your 13th target seat in the British Isles and

yet there is no candidate yet. We are selecting candidates and talking

to people all the time. But you were not ready for your leader to call an

election. If you understand why that election is being called and I am up

for it now looking forward to getting out there again. This will

be my third election in two and a half years so would be nice to have

some time without an election, but we should talk about the issues. I

want to tell my constituents about what we want to do. How much do you

think Brexit will play a part. I think it is important. One of the

reasons this has been called is because we need a strong hand in

Europe. Brexit is important but I think there are key issues around

the economy. In Eastbourne it is between me and the Tory. Brexit is

the big issue. Thank you very much. It will be an interesting couple of

weeks. That's all we've got time

for from the South East this week. My thanks to our guests for today -

Harriet Yeo, Stephen Lloyd, We will be back next week

with all the election news Enjoyed the next six or seven weeks

of campaigning. on issues like the NHS. Run out of

time. Andrew, back to you. Now, Ukip have made their first

significant policy announcement of the election campaign today

with a call for a ban on wearing But is it a policy that will meet

with the approval of the man who bankrolled the party's last

general election campaign? Hello, Andrew. Let me see if I can

clarify some things, are you a member of Ukip? I a patron of Ukip

so I don't stop being a member. So you are still a member? I am,

apparently for life. Are you still hoping to bankroll Ukip? Not at the

moment. Why is that? The internal problems we have had in Ukip have

been aired, and a lot needs to happen in the party in terms of

professionalising it and I think it is ill-prepared for this general

election. Are you going to run in Clacton? I will be if selected. For

Ukip? Yes. Have you been to Clacton? I've been with Nigel Mansell on the

campaign. You will run for a constituency you've only been in

once? Yes, why does that surprise you? You know nothing about it. I've

just recently decided to become the candidate there. Did you know where

it is? Of course I do, your piece the other night was completely

wrong. I said I knew where it was but I didn't know much about it.

Maybe the people of Clacton will regard you as a carpetbagger? Why?

Because you have never been there. Most politicians are carpetbaggers

and I will be there for the right reasons. I thought it was because of

your visceral hatred of Douglas Carswell. He only lasted 24 hours

after I announced my candidacy so we will see what happens. The main

thing I am going to Clacton on Monday to meet the Ukip councillors,

see what the issues are and see if they want me as a candidate. They

may not want me. Who do you think you will be up against? The

potential Conservative candidate. Who in Ukip? I don't suppose anyone

in Ukip will stand against me, I wouldn't have thought. Really? I

would have thought. Money talks! Why do you say that? You talked about

having a pirate radio station to blast into Clacton so it is not

covered by the election rules. You've been talking about financing

a sort of right-wing Momentum movement. I just wonder, has

politics now just become a Richmond's hobby? From my

perspective the reason I'm interested in it is if you have

looked at what has happened in the country, it's clear the

Conservatives will have a massive majority. -- has politics become a

rich man's hobby. Only putting up candidates not against Brexit MPs.

Is Ukip over? I don't think so. The electoral maths is interesting

because first-past-the-post effectively could help Ukip in this

example. Ukip got one MP with 4 million votes. What we are seeing is

the total collapse of Labour. In that situation there are certain

seats up north in Hartlepool and other seats like that, the total

collapse of the Labour Party could help Ukip to win a few seats. Is

Ukip over? It looks that way, yes. They haven't made much of a dent in

Labour's vote in the north, they don't really have a defining issue

anymore and all the polls we have seen published since the election

was called show Ukip vote is going to the Conservatives. Is Ukip over?

It always happens when the Conservative Party goes far to the

right, really hard Brexit, there is no space for BMP, Ukip and all of

that. Are you associating the BNP with Ukip? Or that, movements to the

right of the Conservatives get eaten up one the Conservatives move as far

right as Theresa May has done. I think what your enterprise shows is

how it's really time to reform funding of political parties. It is

disgraceful that very rich people can move in and bankroll the Brexit

campaigned to the extent that they did. We need proper state funding of

parties. The union is bankrolling Labour. I assume the reform would

include trade unions? Indeed. Ukip has lost its talisman in Nigel

Farage, it was a one-man party, I have to say, people like Tim. Having

voted for Brexit its reason to be has gone. It will still take votes

from Labour and the Conservatives but probably only from the don't

knows. There are seats in certain places where if enough Tories back

Ukip dated when. Hartlepool is an example. Were the Tories will never

win. The demise of Ukip has been forecasted many times before but I

don't see a Tory candidate winning in a place like Hartlepool. So we

could see, and I think we will see, the total collapse of the Labour

vote. We shall see. The leader of the party of which you say you are

still a patron, Paul Nuttall, said he would ban the Burcea and the

niqab in public, what is your view? -- the niqab and the Burcea? I'm not

in agreement with that. If it is a security issue at airports or public

transport it could be acceptable but I'm not in favour of curtailing

people's writes. You have gone further than him, haven't you? You

tweeted you wanted to ban Muslim immigration. In my view the problem

we have had with the lack of integration in certain communities

has come about through mass open-door immigration. If you are a

must win you wouldn't be allowed in? What I said in the tweet was I think

they should be a ban on immigration... You said Muslim

immigration. That's what I believe. If you are a world famous doctor

coming to help one of our big teaching hospitals in this country

because you are a Muslim you could not get in? We have to start

somewhere, there are huge problems in areas where 20% of the population

don't speak the language, they haven't integrated. You should read

the rest of the tweet, it is control of immigration from a 10-year ban on

unskilled immigration. The first thing you said was to ban Muslim

immigration, it is in black and white. I have said that, I do not

dispute that. I was questioning that. There is my answer, you cannot

tell somebody's will adjust freedoms but what you can do is stop adding

to the problem. Doesn't that sound a bit like the BNP? It's as like BNP

and like Trump. Its, we hate Muslims, fine, if that is what you

are standing for, that is clear. The final word is we have had open-door

mass immigration from the Conservative Party, we've had it

from the Labour Party and its fine if you are in north London to say

these things, if you live in Oldham and your community has been

radically changed and you have a whole population not integrating in,

not speaking the language, something has got to be done. We had better

leave it there. Thank you for coming in. I am en route to Clacton. We

will see how you get on there. Now, Lib Dem leader Tim Farron

was on TV earlier today and he was asked again

about an issue that he's been asked about repeatedly -

his attitude to homosexuality. when they asked you whether gay sex

was a sin. Come on, Robert, I've been

asked this question loads few days and I have been clear,

even in the House of Commons, It's possible I'm not the only

person getting tired Probably, but then why don't

you just close it down? Toby Young, why does he get into

such a mess over this? I mean, he is leader of the Liberal Democrats. Its

2017. I guess the reason he keeps refusing to answer that question is

because what the implication is that he does think that homosexual acts

are sinful, and he cannot bring himself not to say that, or to say

what Robert Peston and others want him to say because he is an

evangelical Christian who converted at the age of 20, 21, and clearly he

really struggles with this issue and I think it will be really difficult

for the Lib Dems to promote, or even Lib Dem candidates like Vince Cable,

to promote the idea of the Progressive Alliance even though Tim

has ruled it out, if he is not prepared to say I don't think

homosexual acts are sinful. What is your view? It is disastrous if that

is what he really thinks but Preston did not push the hard. I'm not sure

he understood the difference about the question between gay sex and

being gay. I think he just thought he was going on saying I'm not

anti-gay. He needs to command immediately and clarify it. If you

are right and he does actually think it is a sin he is in real trouble.

There is a slight parallel with what police said before about Jeremy

Corbyn, how his unilateral nuclear policy would appeal to the hard core

of the left. The problem for Tim Farron with what he is saying here,

while he is an evangelical Christian, this will not appeal to

traditional Liberal Democrats. An LGBT community member cannot

possibly vote for an MP who believes that a sexual act between

homosexuals is sinful. He has not made that clear. Of course, he wants

to stop Brexit as well so he is neither liberal nor democratic. He

will have seven weeks to make it clear because I am sure he will be

asked again. We have the chairman of the Conservative Party on earlier,

Polly. An important figure for the Tory campaign. What did you make of

what he said? I don't think he will have him on very often, he didn't do

brilliantly. I think they will bring back chemical Ali, Michael Fallon,

he can say anything with a straight face, he can say black is white.

Michael Fallon, chemical Ali? Why do you say that? He can absolutely say

black is white. For instance if you look back at what he said, you

challenged him about the energy policy, when Ed Miliband came out

with it, he said any kind of freeze would stop investment, the lights

will go out. You have him on, he will say the exact opposite. He is

magic at that. But I don't think your guy today was up to the job. If

Michael Fallon was chemical Ali, or we should say chemical Fally,

Patrick was more like comical Ali. The whole Iraq war is rushing back

at me. He is the warm up comedian, there is another six weeks to go,

just getting things started. What did you think? I don't think he was

too bad, it was difficult for him to say exactly what was in the 2050

manifesto is going to be replicated in the Conservatives' manifesto

during this general election, he doesn't want to be seen rowing back

on stuff but on the other hand I don't think he can conceal the fact

they will be far fewer commitments in this Conservative manifesto than

in the last one, as you and I know, it was full of rash promises last

time because they thought they would have to trade a lot of them away in

the negotiations with the Liberal Democrats to form a second coalition

so they are saddled with policies they don't particularly want to be

hemmed in by. The forthcoming Conservative manifesto will be much

lighter and shorter with fewer commitments. Different? Some stuff

jumped from the 2050 manifesto? I think so but we will see a

commitment to run schools to overcome that hurdle in the next

parliament and I don't think, in spite of what you think, Polly, that

it will be a hard tack to the right. I think if anything the mood music

of the Conservative manifesto will be a centrist inclusive one. The

mood music will be because the specifics would be there. She is

good at saying governing for everybody and the many and not the

few but when you look at the hard facts of what her and Hammond's

budget looks like, you look at her hard Brexit, it's a very different

story. Or that, the music has stopped for this week! Thank you. I

will be back next week at the normal time of 11am on Sunday morning. On

BBC One The Daily Politics is back at midday tomorrow and we will be on

every day next week on BBC Two. Remember, if it's Sunday, it is The

Sunday Politics. There'll be a couple of hours of

just fantastic music, really, all the Ella classics, as well as

some very special guests, we have Mica Paris, Imelda May,

Dame Cleo Laine 'There's a side to Rory that the

public doesn't see.