15/06/2014 Sunday Politics South West

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

But the country now faces a de facto partition.

What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

Both sides join us to go head to head.

I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

that? And in the South West.

even Westminster, we'll be asking The Prime Minister's accused of

"not getting tourism" as thd industry campaigns for a VAT cut.

And the region leads In London, why the minority vote one

recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

This morning he entered the debate about what should be

My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

problem, but a problem that will affect us.

And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

calling on the international community to help us with that. So

we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

you very much. The danger is that power will

spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

just getting heated. In places it's also

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

popular since she fell out with him out how

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

all? This is almost the perfect team.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

collecting. These beauties are popping up

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. be talking about Ed Miliband's

Coming up on the Sunday Polhtics in the South West...

As the summer season gets into full swing, our tourism business say they

should have the VAT cut most of their competitors in Europe enjoy.

And for the next 20 minutes I'm joined by Bill Stevens, Labour

And from over the water Sheryll Murray, Conservativd MP

Andrew George the Lib Dem MP for St Ives has just won the

Private Members' Ballot in the House of Commons.

That means he gets the parliamentary time to introduce

He was recently identified as the most rebellious Lib Dem MP

in the country so his choice could be interesting.

You are an old hand at this because you have only been

in the Commons for four years but in that time you have got to have

The Marine Navigation Act and the Deep Sea Mining Act.

To be quite honest, it is one opportunity

We do everything that the minister does but you h`ve to do

It really teaches you a lot about introducing legislation as well

You have got a choice, you can do what you have done and choose

something which has got a good chance of getting government backing

or you could make a protest point, if you like, and choose somdthing

that highlights an issue but has no chance of becoming a law.

My other attempt was a ten minute rule Bill

which was to introduce a bill to ban the keeping of primates as pets

That ran out of parliamentary time unfortunately.

Bill, if you were in the Colmons and in that happy position,

I would take quite a strangd route and ask my constituents.

The worst thing is politici`ns who claims to have

I want to take soundings across what ever constituency I represented

If you are asking me to plulp for something myself I would probably

look to repeal the bedroom tax which is doing so much damage to so many

Bill would have a hard job repealing somethhng that

What about this issue of thd bill, choosing something which is

important for you but quite judiciously which the government

of the time could help you, or just making a protest pohnt.

There's probably not a great deal that the government could hdlp me

with that I would want to gdt onto the statute book myself.

Happily those two avenues would coincide for me.

I would want to make sure that it was something that benefited my

Sadly, with the government that we have got at the moment,

we are repeating things rather than bringing things forward.

I completely disagree because Private Members Bill s very

Neither of my bills were opposed by the opposition and gener`lly

what you do, the first one for instance, saves money bdcause

of the harbour directions and the pilot exemption certificates.

The second one, the Deep Sea Mining act, is actually

looking to the future and h`s the potential to bring up to ?30 billion

If you are top of the ballot again, what would you have plumped for

I would have definitely gond for the EU referendum.

I was wondering whether you would say that.

We need to trust in the British people, we are not saying in or out,

Let us trust the people who elect us.

I am sure that the work that Sheryl has done

I am just sad that repealing the bedroom tax...

We will leave the bedroom tax or spare room subsidy.

We will talk about something that is undisputedly a tax.

Pressure is growing on the Government to cut VAT

for what's arguably the region's biggest industry.

Almost every other country hn the EU gives tourism businesses a hefty

Businesses and MPs in the South West say it?s high time

Paul tries hand at this spot in West Devon.

From Derbyshire, he would come more often

We have two children so family holidays, again,

price is very important so we would look to come in Britain mord often

Paul stays in a hotel in this village near Okehampton

It is a family business with all of the staff drawn from the area.

The owner said he would like to employ more people

if the business expanded and he thinks this could happen easily

if the VAT on tourism was brought down to the European averagd of 5%.

It will bring more people staying in hotel rooms, more people

therefore eating in restaur`nts bars, in the West Country.

Hopefully more overseas vishtors coming inbound, fewer of thd UK

It would be very good news for our local economy.

24 countries in the EU have taken advantage of special dispensation

An early day motion calling for the UK to do the same h`s been

lodged by MPs, including a member representing Clifton,

lodged by MPs, including a member representing Lifton,

An electric shock of aid, assistance and support to

It is a vital industry for the south`west and that is why I

am urging the government to take action.

It is worth remembering that in 2011,

the coalition increased VAT from 17.5% to 20%, a measure introduced

Given that is still ?107 billion any cuts are unlikely.

The case is made that over a 5`year period the sort

In an environment where bal`ncing the budget

in the short`term is desper`tely important, I think there will be

And the Treasury was not biting in a statement it said, currently

all taxes are under review, it does not have any plans to hntroduce

The reason, a significant revenue shortfall

Paul got lucky but the campaign to reduce VAT for

You are a seem quite happy? Not at the current level. It is th`t

increase in the four years of this increase in the four years of this

government that has seen so much damage caused to the tools hndustry.

In the city like Plymouth where I represent, we represent heavily on

got something in the region of got something in the region of

million visitors expected and growing. Support for the totrism

industry is vital. If there's anything we can do to help hoteliers

then that is fantastic. I would like to listen to what hoteliers and

does industry are telling md. I do does industry are telling md. I do

not think any of them would say no not think any of them would say no

to being cut to 5%! Then I'l sure they will make a very powerful case.

The public sector, private sector and voluntary sector in Plylouth

working together is a great reformer. `` is the way forward

Lord Harrison said in the ddbate that David Cameron did not get

tourism. That tourism is solething that just happens. I think the Prime

Minister does get to does. H think he recognises the recent impact of

has come out again in a letter has come out again in a letter

recently to see that he wants to speak to the council is to lake sure

that money is coming through. On the VAT cut. I think Bill is wrong by

trying to political point bx talking about the 2.5% increase. Have two

compete on a level playing field with other countries to makd sure

Having said that, it is the Having said that, it is the

Chancellor that holds the bhg calculator. Any concessions that we

give come at a price. The most important thing that we havd at the

moment to help the tourism hndustry moment to help the tourism hndustry

is the roads and the rail ndtwork. You are not one of the MPs hn the

south`west that are repeatedly knocking on the Tunstall 's tour? I

have been knocking on the Chancellor 's tour? I have been knocking on the

I have written to him. I medt my tourist associations regularly. I

will meet them again in a fortnight 's time. I am just pointing out that

we have to recognise that there is only so much money. If we gdt things

like this then they come at a cost. The argument for the industry in the

from this. I hope `` I am hoping from this. I hope `` I am hoping

that is something we can look to introduce in the very near future.

Going back to the point abott growth in the economy. The Conserv`tives

and Liberal Democrats say that we need to impose a package of

measures, many of which painful including the BET includes, but with

the view to time in the country around. Not for the people that I

represent. There might be some people living in the wealthx

south`east. David Cameron mhght feel the benefits in Oxfordshire. I am

delighted for people who fund jobs recently. You might want to pay

tribute to the thousand club that the Labour Party set up in Plymouth

in 2012. To this generally hs higher up our agenda with people who cannot

get your passport sorted out. However far the effect of this

trickling down, the economy appears to be going in the right direction.

Very slowly and not enough for the people who have suffered because of

what George Osborne and Davhd Cameron have been doing. If you

stuck to your original economic policy, the one that you went into

the general election with, things would be better economicallx? I

would not have cut by any mdasure compared to what we have sedn. You

and we would have continued on that and we would have continued on that

downward spiral that your government left as an in 2010. Let us face it,

I am not saying that the money has run out, but you will still pursue

that policy. Where would yot get that policy. Where would yot get

that money to spend? I do not think people who have seen the services

cut in social services, NHS, pensions or benefits, the bddroom

tax. How would you pay for ht? There was no money, you left us whth no

money. I do not think that `nybody who sees the money sloshing around

in the City of London, the bankers bonuses, George Osborne acttally

went over to Europe. Your p`rty spent tenfold. Come out with some

positive, realistic answers. I do not think that cutting so m`ny

essential services. What is your attentive? Ed balls was not

Chancellor of the Exchequer in 010. He was Education Secretary. It

always seems to be Conservative message that incoming Labour

government have to pick up. We had that after we were bankrupt after

the war in 1945 and in 1964. Bill touched on the EU. The Consdrvative

peer Lord Caithness said th`t mortals are an anathema to tourists.

If we withdraw from the EU, that will not be helpful for people who

like to come to the EU and then want to travel to Britain. The whthdrawal

from the EU, I have already touched on it, let the British people make

up their mind. Are you inclhned towards withdrawal? My position is

very clear and I do not think we should be in things like colmon

policies, like the Common fhsheries policy. My own personal view is that

Europe should do less and do it better. With climate change, we do

have to speak to them. I voted in favour of EU membership in 0974 We

have to withdraw from this debate. The South West has long been at the

forefront of a campaign to hmprove This week

an influential committee of MPs said urgent action was needed but stopped

short of recommending the b`n on keeping monkeys as pets which

people like Sheryll want to see We'll hear more from her after

this report from Tamsin Melville. Life is good for Joey,

the capuchin monkey. Here we have got Joey who is

a monkey who was kept for nine years in an enclostre

the size of a wardrobe. Because of a lack of space,

exercise, appropriate diet, his bones did not develop properly so he

is now suffering from bone disease. When he arrived he was rockhng

pretty much the whole time. This monkey

behind me is a capuchin who is one of 28 at this monkey sanctu`ry here

in South East Cornwall. He has been rescued

from the pet trade. The monkey?s enclosures werd

dilapidated and had been This monkey

behind me is a capuchin who is one of 28 at this monkey sanctu`ry here

in South East Cornwall. He has been rescued

from the pet trade. The monkey?s enclosures werd

dilapidated and had been This campaign video shows the rescue

from a private home in Essex. The problem for campaigners is that

keeping monkeys such as Grips and They are relatively easy to get

on the Internet and you do not need a licence to buy,

sell or breed the smaller species. Nobody knows how many monkexs

are being kept in British homes Wild Futures estimates up to 50 0,

sometimes even more. The Environment Select Commhttee

this week called for a tightening Urgent government research

into the true numbers before any decision on a total ban

on keeping primates is made. There could be ten or 5000

primates in the trade. There are still individuals

suffering on the ground and that is why we are asking

for a ban in the UK pet trade. Experts say that even with

the best intentions, primatds are In autumn 2011,

we filmed marmosets who werd being At the time

the owner insisted they werd happy. I do not think I am

doing anything wrong. I feel like I am a custodian

of these for the future gendration. I am just grateful that thex trust

me enough to share my space. Following

a RSPCA investigation he was taken to court under animal welfare laws,

found guilty of neglect and banned Although this was a success,

the charity says that the current code of practicd and

licensing system is not working There are huge problems with

noncompliance and lack And people who are applying

the current law not knowing what they are doing in terms

of primate welfare. We don't think that will be

solved by the system that The MPs want the standards for

primates in private homes to match There are big enclosures and

monkeys are kept in family groups. They also want anybody keephng

a monkey to sign up to a register. Are people going to give thdm

that information and if thex are They have to be pretty strong with

this to make sure that they get We do need research

in finding out how these anhmals are The select committee has not ruled

out recommending a full ban in the future

but is asking the government to do the research and report back with

a plan of action within six months. Ministers say that existing

legislation is adequate. Prosecutions can be successfully

brought. Is it a case of iddntifying well peer irregularities? Wd have to

find out where these primatds are being kept and that is the whole

period to get people to reghster so period to get people to reghster so

we know exactly how many thdre are. We can ensure that inspections are

carried out as necessary. Are you happy with this report? I think it

is a staged process. It is no good introducing a ban immediately

because my fear is that it would push people who are keeping primates

in numbers, in backyards, in the open, in good surroundings, it may

push them to put them in sm`ll cages in the back bedroom of a hotse, on

their own. It could `` it could cause more suffering to the

primates. We have to find ott where they are. Local authorities must be

made to use primates specialists for inspections. Animal welfare officers

do not have the knowledge. H do not think that it will ultimately

and I think we will looking towards and I think we will looking towards

a ban. Bill is very much in local government. What is your vidw? To

animals has to be paramount in all animals has to be paramount in all

of this. We have seen in other parts of the country just hope of

endangered species have been treated in appalling conditions. Thd welfare

of the animals in question has to be absolutely paramount when you

consider anything in relation to this. A lot of what Cheryl says is

right. If you come down heavy`handed, it drives people

difficult to solve. The problem is a difficult to solve. The problem is a

lot harder to identify and deal with. If you come down to softly,

the danger is the problem does not get solved. I would favour `

register and proper licensing. Now our regular round`up

of the political week in thd 28 of Devon's Community Hospitals

face the possible closure of inpatient beds to fund more care

at home and save NHS financds. If you only have so much resources

then decisions have to be m`de as to whether you put those resources

into this area on a different area. A Taunton coroner is considdring

making representations to the Government for tighter legislation

of the fireworks industry after the Relatives say someone

should be held to account. It is not cost`effective

for them to ensure that thex monitor their training,

that the monitor any displaxs. Britain's first new metal mhne

for 40 years is taking shapd at Hemerdon on the edge of Dartmoor,

it will provide around 200 jobs and The overwhelming opinion from

local people is that we want this investment, we wanted these jobs and

it is massive support for what we The Southwest mourns the de`th

of one of its most popular politicians after

the death this week of Rik Layal, famous, amongst other things, for

his portrayal of Alan B'stard MP. The MPN that CDs change in being a

Labour politician to a consdrvative one. Will you be likely to defect?

`` the MPN that CDs. When the actor was protruding that charactdr all

those years ago, we saw a lot of people moving over from the

Conservatives to labour so H guess that'll be taking place quite soon.

You tempted to cross the floor of the house? Certainly not.

That's the Sunday Politics in the South West.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

But behind the scenes the parties have

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

of Britain's great palaces.