15/06/2014 Sunday Politics South West


15/06/2014

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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

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The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

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The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

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What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

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It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

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that? And in the South West.

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even Westminster, we'll be asking The Prime Minister's accused of

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"not getting tourism" as thd industry campaigns for a VAT cut.

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And the region leads In London, why the minority vote one

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recent elections Labour, but recent support amongst people is bigger

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than assumed. The Sunni Islamist army known

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as ISIS is now in control of huge swathes of northern

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and western Iraq, including Until the weekend they looked

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like advancing relentlessly on Baghdad but that offensive has

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now been slowed or even halted The Iraqi army

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and its Shia milita allies vow that Baghdad will not be taken and that

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a counter-attack will soon begin. Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri

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al-Maliki has to do something to reverse the humiliation

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of recent days, which saw his US-trained and equipped Iraqi

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army, which outnumbered the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or

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surrender when confronted by ISIS. The conflict has already created a

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humanitarian crisis, with hundreds The Kurds have used the conflict to

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consolidate their hold on their autonomous area in the north, parts

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of the west and the north are in the grip of ISIS control and the Shias

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are hunkering down in the east. All of which makes a three-way

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partition a real possibility with The US is moving another

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of its massive aircraft carrier battlefleets to the Gulf,

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though the White House shows no While Iran says it's ready to help

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its Shia allies and there are unconfoirmed reports

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that its revolutionary guard has Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's

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diplomatic editor Mark Urban. Let's start with some basics. Who

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are ISIS and why are they controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS

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is an extremist militant jihad organisation and they have a pure

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Islamic concept based on 14th century history and jurisprudence.

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What they want to do is correct -- create this caliphate that do not

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recognise colonial boundaries so it involves Syria and Iraq, and they

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could go down to Lebanon and Palestine, that is all fair game as

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far as they are concerned. And they have this strict interpretation of

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Islam. The more interesting question is why have semi-Sunni Muslims,

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along with them, these are precisely the sort of people who in 2006,

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2007, tribal leaders in the west of the country rose up against. It was

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called the Awakening and the Americans in power did and

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bankrolled it. These people turned against them and admired them in

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large numbers, so why do they have so many Sunni Muslims on their

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side? We hear about people going back to Mosul. I think the answer is

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a perception back to Mosul. I think the answer

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that the current government is ruling in sectarian interests, Shia

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Muslim interest, and the Sunni Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their best bet. Muslims want self-determination and

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this is their Let me put up this map to find out where we are going. We

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can see Mosul in the north, they took that, and then they started,

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South, reports that the crit was involved -- to grit -- to grit. What

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is the situation on the ground now? We are in what you might call a

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consolidation or strategic pause as American called it in 2003. ISIS are

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trying to consolidate their power in Mosul, and now they have this major

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city and they are trying to show they can run the city and get the

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power going, etc. Their southernmost forces, that is a gorilla army, guys

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in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal with serious opposition. They would

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like to get the tanks and other things into action but that could

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take weeks for them to be able to do it. The government side is that they

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have counter-attacked, but it will take a little while before these

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newly raised militia and other task forces, call them what you will can

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effectively counter-attacked. But that is what will happen in the next

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week or two. We will see increasingly large and serious

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government counter-attacked trying to retake those places, and I fear a

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really difficult, bloody Syrian style street by street battle for

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some of these urban centres. I would like to have a look at this map

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because the Kurds, as I mentioned, they are consolidating their

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position in the autonomous region in the north. The Islamist are taking

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over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim West. And of course the Shia Muslim

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are still dominant in control of Baghdad and in parts of the south

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and east. Back to me looks like the beginnings of the partition of Iraq.

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-- back to me. Well, it is, but we have to caveat it in a few ways

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Firstly, there are millions of people in Iraq, so-called sushi

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combined families, who do not fit easily into the pattern. Do we see

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millions of people becoming refugees under this scheme? There would be a

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lot of human tragedies if people really did try to enforce this type

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partition. Secondly, there are Sunni Muslim communities in the south of

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Baghdad, those places, once again, a lot of misery and fighting will

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occur if people try to enforce a de facto partition. There are still an

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awakening of forces. They are on the side of the government. We heard

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about one group in Samarra of Sunni Muslims fighting on the same side.

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It's a complex picture. They factor, it does look like a partition, and

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if it goes further in that direction it will. And partition will always

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be messy because people end up on the wrong side of the lies.

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Finally, the big thing on that map, Iran, a huge place, a huge border

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with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now becomes a key factor. It is becoming

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a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I was in Baghdad a few months ago I

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did actually see Iranians revolutionary guards in uniform

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They were protecting a senior Iranians official, so some numbers

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have been never some time and they are also said to protect the

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political leaders and -- in his compound. They are there. We think

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more of them are trying to organise the defence of Baghdad to galvanise

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the Iraqi army, and they will not allow the Iraqi government to fall.

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Mark, thank you for marking archive this morning. -- marking our card.

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Tony Blair took Britain into the Iraq conflict in 2003.

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He's now, among other things, envoy to the Middle East representing

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That's the UN, the EU, the US and Russia.

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This morning he entered the debate about what should be

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My point is simple. If you left Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11

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happened and you have the Arab revolutions going through Tunisia,

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Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and Syria, you would still have had a

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major problem in Iraq. You can see what happens when you leave the

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dictator in place, as has happened with Bashar al-Assad. The problem

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doesn't go away. What I'm trying to say is, we can rerun the debates

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about 2003, and there are perfectly legitimate points on either side,

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but where we are in 2014, we have do understand that this is a regional

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problem, but a problem that will affect us.

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And I'm joined by the former Foreign Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown,

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Here in London are James Rubin, he was chief spokesman

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for the State Department under Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman,

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she represents the Kurdistan Regional government in the UK.

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Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles, we don't intervene in Syria, it s a

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shambles. What lessons should we draw? That is a well framed

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question, because that is the problem. Tony Blair is half right.

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Iraq, like Syria, would probably have been a problem even without an

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intervention. But one wishes someone would tell him to stay quiet during

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moments like this, because it does drive a great surge of people in the

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other direction. The fact is, what has been missing in western politics

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towards the Middle East throughout both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a

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drive to build an inclusive, democratic centre which is secular

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and nonsectarian. That has been missing amongst the threats of

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invasion Manon invasion, we have just constantly neglected the

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diplomatic nation-building dimensional this. I want to come

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onto what is happening on the ground. I want to begin with what

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the Western response by me, and by that we mean the United States,

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because of it doesn't do anything, nobody will do anything. All of the

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signals I see coming out of the White is that Barack Obama has no

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appetite for intervention -- out of the White House. I don't think he

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does have an appetite. He would be very unlikely to do anything very

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large. He might feel pressured to act because of the fact that this

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particular group, this Al-Qaeda inspired group, fits into the

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strategy he has pursued in Yemen and Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use

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drone strikes against individual terrorists. So it is possible that

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the threat of ISIS in the region and the West in general might inspire

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him to act, but the idea he will do enough, militarily, to transform

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Iraq from its current state of civil War into something along the lines

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that Mark was talking about, nation-building diplomacy, a big

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operation, I don't see President Obama sees his historic mission as

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having got the United States as out of it. Leave it to the Pacific,

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perhaps. What would the Kurds like the West to do? First of all, in

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Kurdistan we face a huge humanitarian crisis. We already have

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had bought a quarter of a million Syrian refugees and we were

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struggling to cope with that. And now we have at least double that

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number of refugees coming from Mosul. First and foremost, we are

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calling on the international community to help us with that. So

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we need humanitarian aid? Let's assume we do that in some way, maybe

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not enough, but what else if anything? I think it is an incumbent

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on the west and other powers to assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I

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think the Sunni Arab community, some of whom have joined ISIS and may be

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supported the uprising, have justified complaints against the

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federal government. But we need the terrorists out of Iraq. That is

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first and foremost. And what the West can do is not necessarily

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intervene with boots on the ground, but provide technical assistance,

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provide intelligence and help the Iraqi army and air force to be more

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targeted. Can you defend yourselves? In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the

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disciplined troops. In this situation, I hope they won't be

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abandoning their post, that is for sure. It is a national cause fires.

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But we are not armed in the way that the Iraqi army is -- cause for us.

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We are not armed in the way that ISIS seems to be now they have

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seized some of the American kit We are not asking for weapons, but we

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ask for assistance for all of Iraq to deal with the situation. Mark,

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this is not just an Iraqi problem. This is a regional conflict, and

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from the Levant on the shores of the Mediterranean, all the way through

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to the Gulf, the region is gripped with what is essentially a Sunni and

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Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with the caveats that Mark bourbon made

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earlier, it's not quite that straightforward, but the basic

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divide is exactly that -- Mark Urban. People have been looking for

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this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan and have been taken by surprise

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although with hindsight I'm not sure why, that it has begun in Iraq

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instead. At its most extreme, it risks redrawing the 20th century

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boundaries of the region in a way which would be highly unstable

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because it would pit a Shia Muslim bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc

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and would undo all of the sort of social and economic advance of the

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last century, so the stakes are suddenly very, very high indeed Are

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we seeing the redrawing? The lines were drawn secretly, not far from

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here, about a mile away, and may have survived through thick and

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thin. They now look pretty fragile. The map is being redrawn. I think it

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is true that there is a key factor partition going on -- des facto

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Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit of a hand to the promotion of the

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idea of self-determination, and in a way, there is a self determination

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going on, particularly in the Kurdish region, and perhaps they may

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end up the big winners in all of this, because they have proceeded

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with a relatively moderate, reconcilable government. The key

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thing that the Kurdish region has done. They used to fight the two

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groups, and now they fight together. What the Sunni Muslims have not done

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is figure out how to let politics let the side things instead of guns.

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We need to look clearly and in Syria and Iraq, if there is a Sunni

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extremist with ISIS that carves out a place for itself, it will be the

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great irony of the modern era. President Bush said he wanted to go

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into Iraq to fight terrorism. There was no terrorist. There are now If

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in Iraq and Syria together thereat a thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability

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that threatens the region, the West, the world, we are all going to

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have to do something about it. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. You would not want it on your

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southern border. Absolutely, we would not. The point we are all

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making indirectly is that things have changed in Iraq and will never

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be the same again. Whether Iraq completely disintegrates into three

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but a

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countries, or whether it stays together as one country, but loose

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federation, either way, Iraq has changed. It will not go back to what

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it was. I hope it will change for the better. I think we're at the

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make or break point for Iraq. Either the political readers -- the

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political leaders of a right wake up and smell the coffee and put aside

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their differences or there will be problems. This provides that

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opportunity, in a very nasty way. If we take it? Yes, and if not, I think

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this is the end of a rack as we know it. If anything resembling a

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caliphate emerges, that is very destabilising for the region itself.

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More so I would suggest than even the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in

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Afghanistan. At some stage, you have to assume that they will be coming

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for us. That is correct. This is extremely dangerous. The only way

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forward is for these political groups to talk to each other and

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find a compromise that allows the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected within or the rates of cinemas and minorities in

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Iraq to be protected with an autonomous federal-state. Any

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support for the government must be premised on that. There is no

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military solution for this which is in during -- there is no military

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solution for this. There must be serious political negotiation, not

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with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim moderates, to form a more

:19:09.:19:12.

representative government. This is the last chance for Iraq. I think we

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are all saying that that is going to need to be some major western

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leadership to make some big decisions here for the future of the

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region. I am concerned that after Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is

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quite world-weary, quite world-weary. It does not seem to be

:19:31.:19:35.

giving leadership. Certainly we are not seeing that in Europe. I am

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deeply concerned that we are not going to take the leadership role

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that needs to be taken. These are big issues. When Britain and France

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carved up the Middle East, they were world powers, operating as global

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powers, and without that global leadership by somebody, this is just

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going to get worse and worse. I think we will leave it there, thank

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you very much. The danger is that power will

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spread. This could grow in power. It is just under 100 days until the

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referendum on Scottish independence. So, for once,

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it'll be a long hot-summer But the campaign isn't

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just getting heated. In places it's also

:20:16.:20:20.

down-right nasty. When Scotland's best-selling author

:20:21.:20:22.

announced she was giving the unionist cause a million pounds

:20:23.:20:24.

this week, she received Independence supporters online,

:20:25.:20:26.

so-called cybernats, called JK Rowling a traitor

:20:27.:20:34.

and much worse, using a variety of For its part, the Better Together

:20:35.:20:37.

campaign has been accused Even Gordon Brown seems to think so,

:20:38.:20:41.

and this week he criticised Conservative ministers

:20:42.:20:44.

for relying on "threats With the Edinburgh Festival

:20:45.:20:46.

approaching, reports suggest even comedians are now reluctant to

:20:47.:20:51.

engage in the subject because I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from

:20:52.:20:54.

Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie They're both in our Glasgow studio,

:20:55.:21:00.

and they're going head to head. Blair Jenkins, let me come to you

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first. Why have you and the Better Together campaign and Alex Salmond

:21:21.:21:24.

not done more to slap down the cyber nationalists who are poisoning the

:21:25.:21:28.

debate? Good morning. I think both sides tried to stop the tiny number

:21:29.:21:34.

of people on both sides who are incapable of controlling

:21:35.:21:38.

themselves. We should not get this out of proportion. We are having a

:21:39.:21:42.

fantastic, decent and democratic debate. The people who probably

:21:43.:21:46.

total no more than 100 on both sides who post offensive material or not

:21:47.:21:50.

to be allowed to deflect from that fact. Of course there are nasty

:21:51.:21:55.

people on the Better Together side as well, but are you saying there

:21:56.:21:59.

are as many of those as the cyber nationalists? I have not done the

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Kent. Lots of people are certainly posting nasty in defensive things to

:22:06.:22:11.

people in the yes campaigners well. I imagine that people do what I do,

:22:12.:22:15.

and block them. You stop them from sending anything further. There is a

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democratic and in gauging progress going on throughout Scotland. It is

:22:23.:22:26.

characterised by good humour and good debate. We should not get out

:22:27.:22:29.

of proportion and the activities of the number of people. I want to get

:22:30.:22:36.

to Jackie Baillie. The debate is actually pretty good-humoured and

:22:37.:22:39.

you should be doing more about the nasties on your side as well? I

:22:40.:22:43.

think we have reached a new low this week. Despite many people engaging

:22:44.:22:48.

in the politics of the decision and the debate about that, whether we

:22:49.:22:54.

want to retain the best of both worlds are separate from the United

:22:55.:22:58.

Kingdom, what we have seen is the most abusive and vitriolic attack,

:22:59.:23:05.

particularly on women, JK Rowling and a Labour supporter who dared to

:23:06.:23:10.

support the no campaign. When you look at the number of people on

:23:11.:23:15.

social media, there are more from the yes campaign than the no site.

:23:16.:23:20.

We should all be condemning attacks, from whatever quarter they come

:23:21.:23:28.

This seemed to be connected to the office of the First Minister. What

:23:29.:23:32.

is the evidence for that? There was an e-mail from one of the... I

:23:33.:23:37.

understand about that, but it did not use vile words. It did not, but

:23:38.:23:47.

it repeated the same mistake as on the website. We should be clear that

:23:48.:23:51.

we need to condemn these attacks, but it is not just the water works,

:23:52.:23:56.

it is taking action. There was an IpsosMORI poll this week which was

:23:57.:24:01.

varying testing. It showed the population as a whole, farmer people

:24:02.:24:06.

think that Yes Scotland is running an effective campaign as against

:24:07.:24:11.

Better Together. It is a undecided voters think this by a majority of

:24:12.:24:19.

four 21. Some people are worried about of the campaign. JK Rowling,

:24:20.:24:23.

Scotland's most successful author of all time. She gives ?1 million to

:24:24.:24:29.

the Better Together campaign. She then faces some of the most

:24:30.:24:33.

incredible abuse. I know what it is like because I have had some myself.

:24:34.:24:41.

Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some of the words, it is Sunday morning.

:24:42.:24:46.

Why does Scottish Nationalists culture have such a revolting

:24:47.:24:51.

fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to our views and it is unacceptable if

:24:52.:24:54.

people say offensive things about her or anyone else who voices and

:24:55.:24:59.

opinion in this debate. Who are obese people? When you look at the

:25:00.:25:03.

accounts of some of the people who were posting these things about JK

:25:04.:25:07.

Rowling, they were using the same sort of language about film stars

:25:08.:25:11.

and football stars. This was just part of their language on Twitter.

:25:12.:25:18.

How often has Alex Salmond condemned the cyber nationalists? Very often.

:25:19.:25:26.

Everyone in the campaign hands. By common consent, Yes Scotland is

:25:27.:25:29.

running a thoroughly positive campaign, much more positive than

:25:30.:25:35.

Better Together. Jackie Baillie it hardly helps matters when Alistair

:25:36.:25:40.

Darling, who runs your campaign compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il

:25:41.:25:43.

and North Korea. That hardly elevates the debate? I think we need

:25:44.:25:49.

to elevate the debate. There are less than a hundred days to go. It

:25:50.:25:56.

is a massive decision. We need to elevate the debate beyond attacks. I

:25:57.:26:03.

think there is much more that Yes Scotland and the SNP can do. You

:26:04.:26:08.

have made that point. Why are you running a campaign based on fear?

:26:09.:26:14.

The codename of your campaign is even project fear. It is threats.

:26:15.:26:21.

You cannot have the pound, there will be no shipbuilding. You will be

:26:22.:26:25.

flooded by immigrants. Why are you so negative? I am not negative at

:26:26.:26:31.

all and neither is the campaign The campaign has asked questions and I

:26:32.:26:35.

think it is legitimate to ask questions of the people proposing

:26:36.:26:39.

such a fundamental change. People care about the economy, their jobs,

:26:40.:26:44.

their families. What would happen to them if they leave the rest of the

:26:45.:26:50.

United Kingdom. I think it is legitimate to ask questions. I

:26:51.:26:52.

refuse to be asked of scaremongering. People deserve

:26:53.:27:00.

answers. The yes campaign is equally guilty of some of the most

:27:01.:27:07.

outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you are both scaremongering. Blair

:27:08.:27:13.

Jenkins, the First Minister said of the cyber nationalists, that they

:27:14.:27:18.

are just Daft folk, as if they were mischievous little children. It is

:27:19.:27:23.

worse than that. When you look at what they say, they are twisted

:27:24.:27:29.

perhaps even evil minds. I would not disagree with his comments, but they

:27:30.:27:33.

are directed at just a small number of people. The story of this

:27:34.:27:38.

campaign is not the story of what people are saying on Twitter. Around

:27:39.:27:43.

Scotland, lots of people are getting engaged in debate to have been tuned

:27:44.:27:49.

out of the political process. Today, we have 47% support for the yes

:27:50.:27:54.

campaign. The movement in the campaign is towards yes. People know

:27:55.:27:58.

we have a better campaign, a vision for Scotland. The latest poll of

:27:59.:28:05.

polls does not show that. Both sides, you always take the opinion

:28:06.:28:09.

polls that show you in the best light. All politicians do that.

:28:10.:28:14.

Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not just negative, it is patronising.

:28:15.:28:20.

You make dubious claims that Scots would be ?1400 better off by staying

:28:21.:28:26.

in the union, and then you say that the kids use the money to scoff 280

:28:27.:28:33.

hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival. The fate of the nation is in your

:28:34.:28:36.

hands and that is the best you can do? I think you will find that the

:28:37.:28:42.

campaign is something that we are taking the message to people. Then

:28:43.:28:48.

why are you talking about hotdogs? I do not. The campaign did. We are

:28:49.:28:56.

taking a positive message to people across Scotland about the benefits

:28:57.:28:59.

of the United Kingdom. We believe we are stronger and more secure and

:29:00.:29:04.

more stable, being part of that family of nations that is the United

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:13.

like education and transport. I understand that. I am not doing the

:29:14.:29:19.

issues today, I am talking about the tone of the campaign. I have one

:29:20.:29:24.

very important question. Who would you supporting last night in the

:29:25.:29:31.

England-Italy match? I was not watching the game. I would be

:29:32.:29:35.

delighted to see England do well in this tournament. I have Argentina in

:29:36.:29:39.

the office sweepstake. I have to keep some attention on them, but I

:29:40.:29:43.

would be delighted to seeing Clint do well. That is because you think

:29:44.:29:49.

it will help your campaign. It will annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I

:29:50.:29:55.

was supporting England. I was also supporting Portugal.

:29:56.:30:01.

Now most of you probably missed last night's football match

:30:02.:30:04.

between England and Italy because you wanted to get an early night and

:30:05.:30:07.

England lost despite a plucky effort, I'm told.

:30:08.:30:11.

But even Westminster is in the grip of World Cup fever

:30:12.:30:14.

and with speculation about the fitness of each political

:30:15.:30:16.

party's team we sent Adam out to tackle some of the big players.

:30:17.:30:23.

Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:30:24.:30:26.

This year everybody seems to have gone a bit mad Belize, football

:30:27.:30:38.

stickers. Let's see who I will get. Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for

:30:39.:30:45.

these. George Osborne? That is because we leapt on the bandwagon

:30:46.:30:47.

and made Alan political stickers. They're hotter than a Brazilian

:30:48.:30:50.

barbecue. And at Westminster they're

:30:51.:30:52.

turning into collector?s items. Sunday politics political stickers.

:30:53.:31:01.

We have one of you, Norman. Would you like it? Do you want to start

:31:02.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a packet?

:31:07.:31:06.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I'm afraid

:31:07.:31:14.

collecting, Bob? Would you like a Thank you. No album, I've got

:31:15.:31:17.

Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and two of the Prime Minister. -- next

:31:18.:31:25.

to Theresa. I am sure Michael has Theresa in her stick around, and

:31:26.:31:26.

vice versa. These Tory ones are proving very

:31:27.:31:28.

popular since she fell out with him out how

:31:29.:31:30.

to handle extremism in schools. And there's been open speculation

:31:31.:31:33.

about him taking on him in Then there are rumours of a

:31:34.:31:36.

reshuffle of the whole Tory album. Do you think there will be any

:31:37.:31:47.

swapping in the Tory leadership soon? Who knows? David Cameron has

:31:48.:31:56.

also got to replace the EU commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is

:31:57.:31:57.

standing down. Does he go with the favourite

:31:58.:31:59.

the former health secretary Or the grassroots choice,

:32:00.:32:01.

Martin Callanan, the Tories old Or does he rehabilitate

:32:02.:32:04.

Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate? Do you fancy being European

:32:05.:32:22.

Commissioner? I would rather be spending the money on the world s

:32:23.:32:25.

poor and spending it well. Glad to hear it. Happy collecting.

:32:26.:32:27.

Right, there must be some Labour stickers out there.

:32:28.:32:30.

You don't want to swap Ed Balls any of the others? Can't I keep them

:32:31.:32:38.

all? This is almost the perfect team.

:32:39.:32:39.

There have been grumblings about the fitness of the Shadow

:32:40.:32:42.

And Ed Miliband's got a kicking in Liverpool after posing

:32:43.:32:46.

I'm told grown men are meeting up in pubs for sticker swaps -

:32:47.:32:57.

With Danny Finkelstein - Tory peer and Times columnist,

:32:58.:33:02.

He would be the card I would not want to trade. Do people want to

:33:03.:33:14.

trade him in? I don't think anybody wants to trade him in at the moment.

:33:15.:33:18.

He is the best person to lead the Labour party and will lead us into

:33:19.:33:21.

the next election. There's been a lot about Michael Gove, and he's

:33:22.:33:25.

very combative. That's been a huge strength as an education Secretary,

:33:26.:33:27.

despite the fact it's brought in trouble. I would think the prime

:33:28.:33:32.

minister would tell him not to get himself into peripheral battles at

:33:33.:33:35.

the moment but stick to what has been successful. I haven't got Nick

:33:36.:33:41.

Clegg, but I got me. Controversy amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I

:33:42.:33:47.

need to give away me in return for Nick Clegg. That would be far

:33:48.:33:48.

better. There you are. Some local parties are holding

:33:49.:33:52.

meetings about his leadership, but at one in Cambridge this week

:33:53.:33:55.

they voted to stick with him. You have got a Euro Commissioner.

:33:56.:34:07.

Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do

:34:08.:34:11.

that? What is the significance of that? Very significant. Happy

:34:12.:34:14.

collecting. These beauties are popping up

:34:15.:34:17.

everywhere, but sadly they won't Adam is still doing the samba around

:34:18.:34:20.

Westminster as I speak. I'm joined

:34:21.:34:30.

by three journalists who've been furiously swapping stickers

:34:31.:34:32.

throughout the show, they certainly weren't allowed to stay up to watch

:34:33.:34:34.

the football, it's Nick Watt, We will talk about Labour after the

:34:35.:34:44.

break, and I want to concentrate on the Tories, but the moment, Nick,

:34:45.:34:47.

senior Tories are saying privately that they might win next May. They

:34:48.:34:56.

are beginning to dream the dream. So why are they doing all this

:34:57.:35:01.

jockeying? I think the jockeying for the leadership is about a year old.

:35:02.:35:07.

What stoped it up was when Theresa gave a speech to the conference and

:35:08.:35:13.

people said she was doing it just in case, when things were not looking

:35:14.:35:17.

too good. She is not on manoeuvres. I think it was a policy row that

:35:18.:35:21.

drove the differences with Michael Gove. But Michael Gove is on

:35:22.:35:25.

manoeuvres, and he is trying to protect George Osborne from, he

:35:26.:35:28.

believes, a serious threat from Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa.

:35:29.:35:35.

It is quite self-indulgent when you are a couple of points behind, the

:35:36.:35:38.

economy is going your way, to be involved in this sort of stuff.

:35:39.:35:48.

Extraordinary. It shows the toxic disease that gnaws at the entrails

:35:49.:35:54.

of the Tory party, and Cameron is their great asset. He is more

:35:55.:35:56.

popular than the party, he bridges the gap is, and he has an

:35:57.:36:01.

extraordinary dissemble and some pretending to be this moderate while

:36:02.:36:05.

never the lens -- nevertheless leading the most far right wing

:36:06.:36:08.

government we have had since the war, and that has been a brilliant

:36:09.:36:12.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:13.:36:14.

political Charente. piece of political Charente and they

:36:15.:36:17.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- charades. Does this rumble on? I

:36:18.:36:22.

have an unfashionable view as there aren't half as many leadership plots

:36:23.:36:27.

taking place in Westminster as we assume, and the willingness to read

:36:28.:36:30.

strategic calculation into anything that takes place comes from people

:36:31.:36:34.

watching I Claudius or house of cards. That hasn't been off -- on

:36:35.:36:40.

for years. I needed a reference from your time. I needed something. Maybe

:36:41.:36:47.

brief encounter? It's a stylised view of how politics works, and so

:36:48.:36:51.

much more in life is about randomness and mistakes. Boris

:36:52.:36:57.

Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove as George Osborne's man on earth,

:36:58.:37:03.

they are positioning themselves -- Janan wrote an eloquent comment this

:37:04.:37:06.

week about this, but there are certain realities that. Michael Gove

:37:07.:37:12.

had that famous dinner with Rupert Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he

:37:13.:37:16.

said that you must not make Boris Johnson leader of the Conservative

:37:17.:37:21.

party, George Osborne is my man Theresa May set out her credo two

:37:22.:37:24.

years ago and people on her team were saying that she was doing it

:37:25.:37:28.

just in case. People are out there and are thinking of the future, but

:37:29.:37:32.

I do think Janan is right. In the village, in the thick of it mindset,

:37:33.:37:36.

you can get a bit carried away and you can be a bit in the famous. That

:37:37.:37:46.

is before your era. He died. What did he mean by it. You can get a bit

:37:47.:37:52.

carried away by it. I will have words with you during the break

:37:53.:37:55.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:56.:37:57.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:58.:38:00.

Hello, I'm Martyn Oates. be talking about Ed Miliband's

:38:01.:38:15.

Coming up on the Sunday Polhtics in the South West...

:38:16.:38:18.

As the summer season gets into full swing, our tourism business say they

:38:19.:38:22.

should have the VAT cut most of their competitors in Europe enjoy.

:38:23.:38:28.

And for the next 20 minutes I'm joined by Bill Stevens, Labour

:38:29.:38:30.

And from over the water Sheryll Murray, Conservativd MP

:38:31.:38:33.

Andrew George the Lib Dem MP for St Ives has just won the

:38:34.:38:39.

Private Members' Ballot in the House of Commons.

:38:40.:38:41.

That means he gets the parliamentary time to introduce

:38:42.:38:43.

He was recently identified as the most rebellious Lib Dem MP

:38:44.:38:49.

in the country so his choice could be interesting.

:38:50.:38:56.

You are an old hand at this because you have only been

:38:57.:38:59.

in the Commons for four years but in that time you have got to have

:39:00.:39:03.

The Marine Navigation Act and the Deep Sea Mining Act.

:39:04.:39:10.

To be quite honest, it is one opportunity

:39:11.:39:12.

We do everything that the minister does but you h`ve to do

:39:13.:39:17.

It really teaches you a lot about introducing legislation as well

:39:18.:39:25.

You have got a choice, you can do what you have done and choose

:39:26.:39:29.

something which has got a good chance of getting government backing

:39:30.:39:32.

or you could make a protest point, if you like, and choose somdthing

:39:33.:39:35.

that highlights an issue but has no chance of becoming a law.

:39:36.:39:39.

My other attempt was a ten minute rule Bill

:39:40.:39:45.

which was to introduce a bill to ban the keeping of primates as pets

:39:46.:39:50.

That ran out of parliamentary time unfortunately.

:39:51.:39:56.

Bill, if you were in the Colmons and in that happy position,

:39:57.:39:59.

I would take quite a strangd route and ask my constituents.

:40:00.:40:07.

The worst thing is politici`ns who claims to have

:40:08.:40:11.

I want to take soundings across what ever constituency I represented

:40:12.:40:17.

If you are asking me to plulp for something myself I would probably

:40:18.:40:20.

look to repeal the bedroom tax which is doing so much damage to so many

:40:21.:40:24.

Bill would have a hard job repealing somethhng that

:40:25.:40:33.

What about this issue of thd bill, choosing something which is

:40:34.:40:44.

important for you but quite judiciously which the government

:40:45.:40:47.

of the time could help you, or just making a protest pohnt.

:40:48.:40:54.

There's probably not a great deal that the government could hdlp me

:40:55.:40:57.

with that I would want to gdt onto the statute book myself.

:40:58.:41:03.

Happily those two avenues would coincide for me.

:41:04.:41:06.

I would want to make sure that it was something that benefited my

:41:07.:41:09.

Sadly, with the government that we have got at the moment,

:41:10.:41:14.

we are repeating things rather than bringing things forward.

:41:15.:41:18.

I completely disagree because Private Members Bill s very

:41:19.:41:21.

Neither of my bills were opposed by the opposition and gener`lly

:41:22.:41:29.

what you do, the first one for instance, saves money bdcause

:41:30.:41:48.

of the harbour directions and the pilot exemption certificates.

:41:49.:41:51.

The second one, the Deep Sea Mining act, is actually

:41:52.:41:54.

looking to the future and h`s the potential to bring up to ?30 billion

:41:55.:41:58.

If you are top of the ballot again, what would you have plumped for

:41:59.:42:02.

I would have definitely gond for the EU referendum.

:42:03.:42:05.

I was wondering whether you would say that.

:42:06.:42:13.

We need to trust in the British people, we are not saying in or out,

:42:14.:42:17.

Let us trust the people who elect us.

:42:18.:42:23.

I am sure that the work that Sheryl has done

:42:24.:42:25.

I am just sad that repealing the bedroom tax...

:42:26.:42:36.

We will leave the bedroom tax or spare room subsidy.

:42:37.:42:39.

We will talk about something that is undisputedly a tax.

:42:40.:42:44.

Pressure is growing on the Government to cut VAT

:42:45.:42:47.

for what's arguably the region's biggest industry.

:42:48.:42:48.

Almost every other country hn the EU gives tourism businesses a hefty

:42:49.:42:51.

Businesses and MPs in the South West say it?s high time

:42:52.:43:00.

Paul tries hand at this spot in West Devon.

:43:01.:43:13.

From Derbyshire, he would come more often

:43:14.:43:15.

We have two children so family holidays, again,

:43:16.:43:20.

price is very important so we would look to come in Britain mord often

:43:21.:43:23.

Paul stays in a hotel in this village near Okehampton

:43:24.:43:31.

It is a family business with all of the staff drawn from the area.

:43:32.:43:41.

The owner said he would like to employ more people

:43:42.:43:45.

if the business expanded and he thinks this could happen easily

:43:46.:43:49.

if the VAT on tourism was brought down to the European averagd of 5%.

:43:50.:43:56.

It will bring more people staying in hotel rooms, more people

:43:57.:43:58.

therefore eating in restaur`nts bars, in the West Country.

:43:59.:44:02.

Hopefully more overseas vishtors coming inbound, fewer of thd UK

:44:03.:44:06.

It would be very good news for our local economy.

:44:07.:44:12.

24 countries in the EU have taken advantage of special dispensation

:44:13.:44:16.

An early day motion calling for the UK to do the same h`s been

:44:17.:44:23.

lodged by MPs, including a member representing Clifton,

:44:24.:44:31.

lodged by MPs, including a member representing Lifton,

:44:32.:44:33.

An electric shock of aid, assistance and support to

:44:34.:44:36.

It is a vital industry for the south`west and that is why I

:44:37.:44:44.

am urging the government to take action.

:44:45.:44:45.

It is worth remembering that in 2011,

:44:46.:44:47.

the coalition increased VAT from 17.5% to 20%, a measure introduced

:44:48.:44:52.

Given that is still ?107 billion any cuts are unlikely.

:44:53.:45:04.

The case is made that over a 5`year period the sort

:45:05.:45:08.

In an environment where bal`ncing the budget

:45:09.:45:14.

in the short`term is desper`tely important, I think there will be

:45:15.:45:17.

And the Treasury was not biting in a statement it said, currently

:45:18.:45:38.

all taxes are under review, it does not have any plans to hntroduce

:45:39.:45:41.

The reason, a significant revenue shortfall

:45:42.:45:44.

Paul got lucky but the campaign to reduce VAT for

:45:45.:45:49.

You are a seem quite happy? Not at the current level. It is th`t

:45:50.:46:07.

increase in the four years of this increase in the four years of this

:46:08.:46:11.

government that has seen so much damage caused to the tools hndustry.

:46:12.:46:17.

In the city like Plymouth where I represent, we represent heavily on

:46:18.:46:23.

got something in the region of got something in the region of

:46:24.:46:26.

million visitors expected and growing. Support for the totrism

:46:27.:46:32.

industry is vital. If there's anything we can do to help hoteliers

:46:33.:46:37.

then that is fantastic. I would like to listen to what hoteliers and

:46:38.:46:41.

does industry are telling md. I do does industry are telling md. I do

:46:42.:46:44.

not think any of them would say no not think any of them would say no

:46:45.:46:50.

to being cut to 5%! Then I'l sure they will make a very powerful case.

:46:51.:46:56.

The public sector, private sector and voluntary sector in Plylouth

:46:57.:46:59.

working together is a great reformer. `` is the way forward

:47:00.:47:10.

Lord Harrison said in the ddbate that David Cameron did not get

:47:11.:47:15.

tourism. That tourism is solething that just happens. I think the Prime

:47:16.:47:20.

Minister does get to does. H think he recognises the recent impact of

:47:21.:47:31.

has come out again in a letter has come out again in a letter

:47:32.:47:35.

recently to see that he wants to speak to the council is to lake sure

:47:36.:47:45.

that money is coming through. On the VAT cut. I think Bill is wrong by

:47:46.:47:56.

trying to political point bx talking about the 2.5% increase. Have two

:47:57.:48:01.

compete on a level playing field with other countries to makd sure

:48:02.:48:06.

Having said that, it is the Having said that, it is the

:48:07.:48:10.

Chancellor that holds the bhg calculator. Any concessions that we

:48:11.:48:15.

give come at a price. The most important thing that we havd at the

:48:16.:48:17.

moment to help the tourism hndustry moment to help the tourism hndustry

:48:18.:48:27.

is the roads and the rail ndtwork. You are not one of the MPs hn the

:48:28.:48:32.

south`west that are repeatedly knocking on the Tunstall 's tour? I

:48:33.:48:35.

have been knocking on the Chancellor 's tour? I have been knocking on the

:48:36.:48:42.

I have written to him. I medt my tourist associations regularly. I

:48:43.:48:45.

will meet them again in a fortnight 's time. I am just pointing out that

:48:46.:48:50.

we have to recognise that there is only so much money. If we gdt things

:48:51.:48:57.

like this then they come at a cost. The argument for the industry in the

:48:58.:49:00.

from this. I hope `` I am hoping from this. I hope `` I am hoping

:49:01.:49:08.

that is something we can look to introduce in the very near future.

:49:09.:49:12.

Going back to the point abott growth in the economy. The Conserv`tives

:49:13.:49:17.

and Liberal Democrats say that we need to impose a package of

:49:18.:49:21.

measures, many of which painful including the BET includes, but with

:49:22.:49:28.

the view to time in the country around. Not for the people that I

:49:29.:49:33.

represent. There might be some people living in the wealthx

:49:34.:49:37.

south`east. David Cameron mhght feel the benefits in Oxfordshire. I am

:49:38.:49:45.

delighted for people who fund jobs recently. You might want to pay

:49:46.:49:49.

tribute to the thousand club that the Labour Party set up in Plymouth

:49:50.:49:56.

in 2012. To this generally hs higher up our agenda with people who cannot

:49:57.:50:00.

get your passport sorted out. However far the effect of this

:50:01.:50:06.

trickling down, the economy appears to be going in the right direction.

:50:07.:50:12.

Very slowly and not enough for the people who have suffered because of

:50:13.:50:16.

what George Osborne and Davhd Cameron have been doing. If you

:50:17.:50:21.

stuck to your original economic policy, the one that you went into

:50:22.:50:25.

the general election with, things would be better economicallx? I

:50:26.:50:30.

would not have cut by any mdasure compared to what we have sedn. You

:50:31.:50:34.

and we would have continued on that and we would have continued on that

:50:35.:50:37.

downward spiral that your government left as an in 2010. Let us face it,

:50:38.:50:46.

I am not saying that the money has run out, but you will still pursue

:50:47.:50:49.

that policy. Where would yot get that policy. Where would yot get

:50:50.:50:54.

that money to spend? I do not think people who have seen the services

:50:55.:50:58.

cut in social services, NHS, pensions or benefits, the bddroom

:50:59.:51:06.

tax. How would you pay for ht? There was no money, you left us whth no

:51:07.:51:12.

money. I do not think that `nybody who sees the money sloshing around

:51:13.:51:16.

in the City of London, the bankers bonuses, George Osborne acttally

:51:17.:51:24.

went over to Europe. Your p`rty spent tenfold. Come out with some

:51:25.:51:32.

positive, realistic answers. I do not think that cutting so m`ny

:51:33.:51:38.

essential services. What is your attentive? Ed balls was not

:51:39.:51:50.

Chancellor of the Exchequer in 010. He was Education Secretary. It

:51:51.:51:56.

always seems to be Conservative message that incoming Labour

:51:57.:51:59.

government have to pick up. We had that after we were bankrupt after

:52:00.:52:10.

the war in 1945 and in 1964. Bill touched on the EU. The Consdrvative

:52:11.:52:13.

peer Lord Caithness said th`t mortals are an anathema to tourists.

:52:14.:52:26.

If we withdraw from the EU, that will not be helpful for people who

:52:27.:52:29.

like to come to the EU and then want to travel to Britain. The whthdrawal

:52:30.:52:35.

from the EU, I have already touched on it, let the British people make

:52:36.:52:41.

up their mind. Are you inclhned towards withdrawal? My position is

:52:42.:52:45.

very clear and I do not think we should be in things like colmon

:52:46.:52:50.

policies, like the Common fhsheries policy. My own personal view is that

:52:51.:52:54.

Europe should do less and do it better. With climate change, we do

:52:55.:53:01.

have to speak to them. I voted in favour of EU membership in 0974 We

:53:02.:53:06.

have to withdraw from this debate. The South West has long been at the

:53:07.:53:11.

forefront of a campaign to hmprove This week

:53:12.:53:14.

an influential committee of MPs said urgent action was needed but stopped

:53:15.:53:18.

short of recommending the b`n on keeping monkeys as pets which

:53:19.:53:21.

people like Sheryll want to see We'll hear more from her after

:53:22.:53:23.

this report from Tamsin Melville. Life is good for Joey,

:53:24.:53:26.

the capuchin monkey. Here we have got Joey who is

:53:27.:53:28.

a monkey who was kept for nine years in an enclostre

:53:29.:53:32.

the size of a wardrobe. Because of a lack of space,

:53:33.:53:35.

exercise, appropriate diet, his bones did not develop properly so he

:53:36.:53:38.

is now suffering from bone disease. When he arrived he was rockhng

:53:39.:53:40.

pretty much the whole time. This monkey

:53:41.:53:43.

behind me is a capuchin who is one of 28 at this monkey sanctu`ry here

:53:44.:53:46.

in South East Cornwall. He has been rescued

:53:47.:53:49.

from the pet trade. The monkey?s enclosures werd

:53:50.:53:51.

dilapidated and had been This monkey

:53:52.:53:55.

behind me is a capuchin who is one of 28 at this monkey sanctu`ry here

:53:56.:53:57.

in South East Cornwall. He has been rescued

:53:58.:54:00.

from the pet trade. The monkey?s enclosures werd

:54:01.:54:02.

dilapidated and had been This campaign video shows the rescue

:54:03.:54:04.

from a private home in Essex. The problem for campaigners is that

:54:05.:54:09.

keeping monkeys such as Grips and They are relatively easy to get

:54:10.:54:11.

on the Internet and you do not need a licence to buy,

:54:12.:54:18.

sell or breed the smaller species. Nobody knows how many monkexs

:54:19.:54:21.

are being kept in British homes Wild Futures estimates up to 50 0,

:54:22.:54:26.

sometimes even more. The Environment Select Commhttee

:54:27.:54:29.

this week called for a tightening Urgent government research

:54:30.:54:33.

into the true numbers before any decision on a total ban

:54:34.:54:38.

on keeping primates is made. There could be ten or 5000

:54:39.:54:41.

primates in the trade. There are still individuals

:54:42.:54:49.

suffering on the ground and that is why we are asking

:54:50.:54:51.

for a ban in the UK pet trade. Experts say that even with

:54:52.:54:55.

the best intentions, primatds are In autumn 2011,

:54:56.:54:58.

we filmed marmosets who werd being At the time

:54:59.:55:04.

the owner insisted they werd happy. I do not think I am

:55:05.:55:09.

doing anything wrong. I feel like I am a custodian

:55:10.:55:14.

of these for the future gendration. I am just grateful that thex trust

:55:15.:55:18.

me enough to share my space. Following

:55:19.:55:21.

a RSPCA investigation he was taken to court under animal welfare laws,

:55:22.:55:25.

found guilty of neglect and banned Although this was a success,

:55:26.:55:28.

the charity says that the current code of practicd and

:55:29.:55:34.

licensing system is not working There are huge problems with

:55:35.:55:38.

noncompliance and lack And people who are applying

:55:39.:55:40.

the current law not knowing what they are doing in terms

:55:41.:55:45.

of primate welfare. We don't think that will be

:55:46.:55:48.

solved by the system that The MPs want the standards for

:55:49.:55:51.

primates in private homes to match There are big enclosures and

:55:52.:55:58.

monkeys are kept in family groups. They also want anybody keephng

:55:59.:56:02.

a monkey to sign up to a register. Are people going to give thdm

:56:03.:56:05.

that information and if thex are They have to be pretty strong with

:56:06.:56:08.

this to make sure that they get We do need research

:56:09.:56:13.

in finding out how these anhmals are The select committee has not ruled

:56:14.:56:33.

out recommending a full ban in the future

:56:34.:56:37.

but is asking the government to do the research and report back with

:56:38.:56:40.

a plan of action within six months. Ministers say that existing

:56:41.:56:43.

legislation is adequate. Prosecutions can be successfully

:56:44.:56:54.

brought. Is it a case of iddntifying well peer irregularities? Wd have to

:56:55.:57:01.

find out where these primatds are being kept and that is the whole

:57:02.:57:06.

period to get people to reghster so period to get people to reghster so

:57:07.:57:10.

we know exactly how many thdre are. We can ensure that inspections are

:57:11.:57:16.

carried out as necessary. Are you happy with this report? I think it

:57:17.:57:22.

is a staged process. It is no good introducing a ban immediately

:57:23.:57:26.

because my fear is that it would push people who are keeping primates

:57:27.:57:32.

in numbers, in backyards, in the open, in good surroundings, it may

:57:33.:57:37.

push them to put them in sm`ll cages in the back bedroom of a hotse, on

:57:38.:57:42.

their own. It could `` it could cause more suffering to the

:57:43.:57:47.

primates. We have to find ott where they are. Local authorities must be

:57:48.:57:54.

made to use primates specialists for inspections. Animal welfare officers

:57:55.:57:59.

do not have the knowledge. H do not think that it will ultimately

:58:00.:58:00.

and I think we will looking towards and I think we will looking towards

:58:01.:58:06.

a ban. Bill is very much in local government. What is your vidw? To

:58:07.:58:14.

animals has to be paramount in all animals has to be paramount in all

:58:15.:58:22.

of this. We have seen in other parts of the country just hope of

:58:23.:58:26.

endangered species have been treated in appalling conditions. Thd welfare

:58:27.:58:31.

of the animals in question has to be absolutely paramount when you

:58:32.:58:34.

consider anything in relation to this. A lot of what Cheryl says is

:58:35.:58:41.

right. If you come down heavy`handed, it drives people

:58:42.:58:45.

difficult to solve. The problem is a difficult to solve. The problem is a

:58:46.:58:49.

lot harder to identify and deal with. If you come down to softly,

:58:50.:58:54.

the danger is the problem does not get solved. I would favour `

:58:55.:58:57.

register and proper licensing. Now our regular round`up

:58:58.:59:06.

of the political week in thd 28 of Devon's Community Hospitals

:59:07.:59:09.

face the possible closure of inpatient beds to fund more care

:59:10.:59:15.

at home and save NHS financds. If you only have so much resources

:59:16.:59:25.

then decisions have to be m`de as to whether you put those resources

:59:26.:59:28.

into this area on a different area. A Taunton coroner is considdring

:59:29.:59:48.

making representations to the Government for tighter legislation

:59:49.:59:50.

of the fireworks industry after the Relatives say someone

:59:51.:59:53.

should be held to account. It is not cost`effective

:59:54.:59:56.

for them to ensure that thex monitor their training,

:59:57.:00:01.

that the monitor any displaxs. Britain's first new metal mhne

:00:02.:00:02.

for 40 years is taking shapd at Hemerdon on the edge of Dartmoor,

:00:03.:00:05.

it will provide around 200 jobs and The overwhelming opinion from

:00:06.:00:09.

local people is that we want this investment, we wanted these jobs and

:00:10.:00:11.

it is massive support for what we The Southwest mourns the de`th

:00:12.:00:14.

of one of its most popular politicians after

:00:15.:00:18.

the death this week of Rik Layal, famous, amongst other things, for

:00:19.:00:20.

his portrayal of Alan B'stard MP. The MPN that CDs change in being a

:00:21.:00:32.

Labour politician to a consdrvative one. Will you be likely to defect?

:00:33.:00:44.

`` the MPN that CDs. When the actor was protruding that charactdr all

:00:45.:00:48.

those years ago, we saw a lot of people moving over from the

:00:49.:00:51.

Conservatives to labour so H guess that'll be taking place quite soon.

:00:52.:00:56.

You tempted to cross the floor of the house? Certainly not.

:00:57.:01:03.

That's the Sunday Politics in the South West.

:01:04.:01:12.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:13.:01:15.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:16.:01:17.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:18.:01:21.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:22.:01:24.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:25.:01:29.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:30.:01:37.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:38.:01:43.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:44.:01:48.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:49.:01:53.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:54.:01:59.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:02:00.:02:02.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:03.:02:08.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:09.:02:10.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

:02:11.:02:14.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:15.:02:23.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:24.:02:28.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:29.:02:34.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:35.:02:41.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:42.:02:45.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:46.:02:48.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:49.:02:52.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:53.:02:54.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:55.:03:05.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:06.:03:10.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:11.:03:13.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:14.:03:17.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:18.:03:21.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:22.:03:25.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:26.:03:34.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:35.:03:39.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:40.:03:44.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:45.:03:47.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:48.:03:54.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:55.:04:03.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:04.:04:08.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:09.:04:14.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:15.:04:18.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:19.:04:24.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:25.:04:28.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:29.:04:32.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:33.:04:37.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:38.:04:43.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:44.:04:46.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:47.:04:50.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:51.:04:55.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:56.:05:00.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:01.:05:07.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:08.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:14.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:15.:05:21.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:22.:05:26.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:27.:05:29.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:30.:05:32.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:33.:05:40.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:41.:05:45.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:46.:05:47.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:48.:05:53.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:54.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:07.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:08.:06:12.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:13.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:27.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:28.:06:31.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:32.:06:38.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:39.:06:41.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:42.:06:44.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:45.:06:49.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:50.:06:56.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:57.:07:00.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:01.:07:02.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:03.:07:07.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:08.:07:16.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:17.:07:22.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:23.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:31.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:32.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:47.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:48.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:56.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:57.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:05.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:06.:08:12.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:13.:08:21.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:22.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:32.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:33.:08:39.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:40.:08:45.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:46.:08:54.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:55.:08:59.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:09:00.:09:01.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:02.:09:07.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:08.:09:11.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:12.:09:17.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:18.:09:19.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:20.:09:22.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:23.:09:29.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:30.:09:33.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:34.:09:36.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:37.:09:39.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:40.:09:44.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:45.:09:47.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:48.:09:50.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:51.:09:56.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:57.:10:00.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:01.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:08.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:09.:10:14.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:15.:10:17.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:18.:10:22.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:23.:10:25.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:26.:10:31.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:32.:10:38.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:39.:10:41.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:42.:10:46.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:47.:10:51.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:52.:10:55.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:56.:11:00.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:01.:11:05.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:06.:11:07.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:08.:11:11.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:12.:11:17.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:18.:11:21.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:22.:11:26.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:27.:11:30.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:31.:11:35.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:36.:11:39.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:40.:11:42.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:43.:11:50.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:51.:11:54.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:55.:11:57.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:58.:12:02.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:03.:12:05.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:06.:12:07.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:08.:12:11.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:12.:12:16.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:17.:12:20.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:21.:12:23.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:24.:12:29.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:30.:12:32.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:33.:12:37.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:38.:12:43.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:44.:12:48.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:49.:12:51.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:52.:12:56.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:57.:13:01.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:02.:13:04.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:05.:13:09.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:10.:13:10.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:11.:13:13.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:14.:13:17.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:18.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:53.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:54.:13:59.

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

:14:00.:14:05.

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

:14:06.:14:13.

of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:17.

Andrew Neil and Lucie Fisher with the latest political news, interviews and debate. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman discuss the crisis in Iraq. Jackie Baillie from Better Together and Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland debate the nature of the Scottish independence campaign.


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