25/02/2018 Sunday Politics Wales

Morning everyone, I'm

Sarah Smith and and this

is the Sunday Politics...

Bringing you up to speed on all

the political comings and goings

in Westminster and beyond.

Coming up in today's programme:

Having knocked Cabinet heads

together Theresa May

prepares - finally -

to lay out her vision for Brexit.

But can she keep her

whole party on side?

We'll be speaking to

a former Tory leader.

Waiting in the wings is this man.

But can Jeremy Corbyn unite

the opposing forces in his own party

and convince the electorate he'd do

a better job of Brexit?

The forthcoming local elections

in England ought to give us

a clue about the fortunes

of the two main parties.

Later in

really do more for less?

All that coming up in the programme.

All that coming up in the programme.

And as usual, we've got three

Westminster insiders who will take

us behind the headlines and tell us

what's really going on.

Today I'm joined by Iain Dale,

Kate McCann and Steve Richards.

Next month, Theresa May

will begin formal negotiations

with her European counterparts

on what the future EU-UK

relationship should look like.

This week, she will lay

out her vision of life after Brexit

and she'll declare that our "best

days really do lie ahead of us".

EU leaders beg to differ though,

and have already taken

some pre-emptive swipes.

But, while the talk is likely

to get tough in Brussels,

the key battles could be

played out closer to home.

It's known as the Brexit war

committee, but the smiles suggested

an outbreak of peace among

the Cabinet's big beasts.

For now, at least.

They'd arrived at Chequers,

the Prime Minister's country

retreat, on Thursday afternoon,

to try and agree a common position

for the next round of Brexit talks.

Eight hours later, ministers

were apparently still smiling,

having agreed on something called

ambitious managed divergences

and future trade with the EU.

One of those present

said the Prime Minister

had played a blinder,

but will it be enough to hold

the whole party together?

Earlier in the week,

a letter from the pro-Brexit

European reform group found its way

into the newspapers,

politely reminding the Prime

Minister that when we leave,

nothing but full regulatory autonomy

will be good enough.

But it's Remain-minded Tories

who could throw a real

spanner in the works.

Conservative MP Anna Soubry

announced on Thursday she had...

"Tabled a new amendment to the trade

bill to force the government to form

a customs union with the EU".

27 other EU countries also

need to be won over.

Brexit Secretary David Davis

was in Vienna on Tuesday,

colourfully describing what Brexit

will not look like.

They fear that Brexit will lead

to an Anglo-Saxon race

to the bottom, with Britain plunged

into a Mad Max style world borrowed

from dystopian fiction.

These fears about a race

to the bottom are based on nothing.

But the EU are not convinced.

European Council President Donald

Tusk arguing that the UK

was still trying to

cherry pick its future

relationship with the EU.

I'm afraid that the UK position

today is based on pure illusion.

Until now, Jeremy Corbyn

has played his Brexit

cards close to his chest.

He may begin to reveal his hand

in a major speech tomorrow and this

week he unusually raised Brexit

at Prime Minister's Questions.

This government isn't on the road

to Brexit, Mr Speaker,

it's on the road to nowhere.

Can I congratulate the right

honourable gentleman,

because normally he stands up

every week and asks me

to sign a blank cheque.

And I know he likes cheques, but,

really, that is terribly...

That was a reference to reports

that the Labour leader had held

meetings with the former

Czechoslovakian spy in the 1980s.

Mr Corbyn hit back at those reports

with a social media video,

in which he said rather cryptically,

"Change is coming to

the newspaper industry".

Publishing these ridiculous smears

that have been refuted by Czech

officials shows just how worried

the media bosses are at the prospect

of a Labour government.

They are right to be.

Tory MP Ben Bradley had to apologise

to Mr Corbyn over a tweet

about the allegations, saying...

But it wasn't all Brexit

and brush passes.

The Prime Minister began

the week announcing a review

into higher education.

We now have one of the most

expensive systems of university

tuition in the world.

Theresa May wants to demonstrate

her government isn't

simply defined by Brexit,

but navigating the complications

of leaving the EU is

an all consuming task.

If she can avoid it

consuming her career, that

could be her greatest achievement.

Steve, Kate and Iain

were watching that with me.

Let's chew over what has been

happening this week. People saying

that meeting at Chequers, the Prime

Minister played a blinder and got

the Cabinet to agree. Outside the

Cabinet, it looks like she is

assaulted on all sides by

pro-Brexit, pro had Brexit Tory MPs,

the EU, it's not as easy as all

that?

It is never going to be easy

for a Prime Minister who hasn't got

a Parliamentary majority. She is

very resilient. Whenever she's

knocked down, she bounces back

again. I think she has had quite a

reasonable week this week, starting

off on the front foot and tuition

fees and ending the week with the

meeting at Chequers. I think a lot

of commentators thought it was going

to be a disaster, that they would

agree on the way board. The proof in

the pudding will be on what she says

in the speech on Friday. We have

Jeremy Corbyn mandates and

effectively she has to up with

probably quite a lot more detail

than she has done in the past. I

think they have the basis for that

now.

Kate, we've talked a lot on

this programme about the arguments

within the Cabinet but now it looks

like the focus is now on the wider

Conservative Party. You have

probably remain MPs like Anna Soubry

saying they want to stay in the

customs union, a letter from pro

except MPs like Jacob Rees-Mogg

saying they want full regulatory

divergence. Which group is likely to

win the day?

I think what is most

interesting this week will be Jeremy

Corbyn's speech on Monday. That

comes before Theresa May's speech on

Friday. That will help tip those two

sites, as it were, and we will see

what will happen with the customs

union. Jeremy Corbyn is likely to

say he would like to stay in a

customs union that is likely to make

the Tory MPs on the Tories I'd like

Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan, who

want to back and push for a customs

union feel like they have more

control over that. Whether it is

likely not promote we are yet to

see. If Labour is shifting its

customs union position that much,

that gives Tory MPs a lot more

strength in the House of Commons

because the government has already

pushed back a vote on the customs

union because they are worried about

what is going happen.

Those pro

remain Tories on the Labour Party

believe they have the Parliamentary

arithmetic to force a defeat on the

government over the customs union,

are they right about that?

Certainly

in theory they are right. There are

enough Conservative MPs and if the

opposition vote for this, the

government faces a defeat with

profound consequences. We will not

know probably until the moment when

the vote takes place. It will be a

moment of one of these great

Parliamentary dramas, where there

will be huge pressure on Tory MPs

not to go along with this and say,

you are in alliance with Jeremy

Corbyn and so on. We won't know

until the vote but in theory they

have the numbers. It would be a game

changer if this amendment was

carried.

This is fascinating. It

means the power has gone to the

house of parliament and has left

number ten and the Cabinet, Hilary

Benn described this as a backbencher

's parliament because the government

doesn't have a majority. Is that

where the authority lies now?

In

some ideas. I'm not sure if I agree

about the Parliamentary arithmetic

because some will die with the

Conservatives, and we will hear from

one later, Frank Field. There are a

group of them. I wonder about the

numbers on the Tory benches, there

is a hard-core group of about ten or

a dozen that you think might well

support Anna Soubry's amendment but

I don't really see it going much

beyond that. But you are right, it

will be on a bit of a knife edge. If

it came to the government were

defeated on this, then we are in

uncharted waters, because the

government could actually make it a

vote of confidence. It would be very

unusual to do one on an amendment to

a bill but it is possible, or they

could call a vote of confidence that

would put Anna Soubry and all the

others in

others in a bit a tricky position.

If they did vote against the

government on a vote of confidence,

they would have to be deselected.

We

will talk about that throughout the

programme.

Listening to all that is the former

Conservative leader,

and leading Brexit campaigner,

Iain Duncan Smith.

Welcome to the programme. Do you

accept there is a significant chance

the government could be defeated on

a customs union in the House of

Commons question when you don't have

a majority there is a chance to be

defeated on anything.

I love the way

the media looks at this cost would

take a pace back, it's a government

that won the election and didn't get

an overall majority so it means

almost anything anyone is upset

about could cause a problem for the

government, fact of life. Brexit is

just one, it's a very big issue but

one of those, there has been other

issues and there will be on the

issue is following through.

It

matters to you whether we are in a

customs union with the EU?

Lots of

things deeply matter to me, beyond

Brexit. But yes. I think the key

thing is not what I believe but the

Prime Minister has been pretty clear

about this from the word go, way

before the election, during the

election importantly and even

subsequently she has made it very

clear we are taking back control,

leaving the customs union, single

market, and at the same time making

sure we get outside of the remit of

the court of justice. She has been

clear about this.

Let's pick a bit of that. In her

Lancaster House speech she said she

wanted us to have a customs

agreement with the EU, not a customs

union but customs agreement. This

controversial amendment Anna Soubry

another Superdome says they want an

agreement that enables the UK to be

able to participate in a customs

union with the EU, is there space

for that?

It depends what the detail

is. The government set it out quite

rightly on having a proper free

trade arrang ement. You can describe

a free-trade arrangement in all

different ways but a free-trade

arrangement is about us having a

clear ability to sell-out goods into

the European Union them to sell us

without artificial trade barriers

that will require arrangements that

out customs arrangements. The big

them to sell us without artificial

trade barriers and that will require

arrangements that out customs

arrangements. The behind having a

customs union and being outside a

free-trade arrangement is we are 90%

of the graces in the global economy

in the next two years, we will be

free to do that. If we are in a

customs union, you to make trade

arrangements with America,

Australia, India, where ever we want

to, where 90% of the growth is in

the global economy in the next two

years, we will be free to do that.

If we are in a customs union, you

agree do that and therefore we would

have to what the European Union to

what the European certainly be

outvoted endlessly. This is about

where does the power light and we

would almost certainly be outvoted

endlessly. This is about where does

the with the rest of the world in a

moment but exactly what you

describe, the free-trade arrangement

with no tariffs with the EU

and the

freedom to make those deals, that is

what the EU called cherry picking?

What they really called cherry

picking is this arrangement we are

talking about now, a customs union.

They have been pretty clear about

this. They said it is not

acceptable. Let's look at it from

the European Union to make those

agreements?

I want to get into the

detail on free-trade deals with the

rest of the world in a moment but

exactly what you describe, the

free-trade arrangement with no

tariffs with the EU and the freedom

to make those deals, that is what

the EU called cherry picking?

What

they really called cherry picking is

this arrangement we are talking

about now, a customs union. They

have been pretty clear about this.

They said it is not acceptable.

Let's look at it from the European

Union's standpoint. We constantly

look at what the UK once. You use is

certainly not going to agree going

into a customs union where we will

then have over any future agreement,

so we will outvote all 27 because we

that would depend on the agreement.

...

That would depend on the

agreement. The EU wants would have

enormous power against them, they an

agreement, we would have enormous

power against them, they won't agree

because it is not in their interests

to do I think what is more in

arrangement. There are lots of

countries that are already breaking

ranks with the commission about

this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we

have to have a free-trade

arrangement.

They are not on that

yet, they are still on the

implementation phase. When it comes

to free trade, I am very, very

certain that they will want to make

an arrangement with us because it is

in their interests, arguably more

than us. , they want a free-trade

arrangement. There are lots of

countries that are already breaking

ranks with the commission about

this, Italy, Sweden, Holland said we

have to have a free-trade

arrangement. They are not on that

yet, they are still on the

implementation phase. When it comes

to free-trade, I am very, very

certain that they will want to make

an arrangement with us because it is

in their interests, arguably more

than us let's move on to trade with

the rest of the world. Why do so

absolutely convinced that the

ability to do with Australia, China,

the ones the EU has at the,

different from the ones the EU has

at increasing our trade with these

countries from inside the EU? Their

biggest

are so terribly important?

Why can't we be increasing our trade

with these countries from inside the

EU?

Their biggest free-trade we are

naturally, the UK, more than any

other country in the European

country, arguably more than most in

the world, a free-trade for free

trade the WTO has a ready said they

love the idea of us coming back as a

full voting member because we will

argue for free trade. By, global

free trade and services, which stop

because the European Union has not

wanted to push the site at all.

Do

so much more trade with China than

us from within the EU?

That is to do

with what Germany says they want to

do and go and do it Germany do so

much more trade with China than us

from within the EU? That is to do

with what Germany says they want to

do and go and do it.

Being a member

of the EU has being a member of the

EU be outside the that so why do we

have to be outside you get rid of

artificial tarry

that is not

parallel argument. By getting trade

arrangements you get rid of

artificial and delays at the borders

that allows you to increase your

trade. We want from where we are.

But at the same time, incoming stuff

is just as important. The people who

will benefit most from a free-trade

arrangement of the poorest in

society because the cost of food,

footwear and clothing will almost

certainly our trade from where we

are. But at the same time, incoming

stuff is just as important.

You might as much larger and more

important market. The skill is not

that important. The key thing is, do

you value a marketplace, is it worth

doing business with? Financial

services is an important are great

-- an important area you want to

strike agreements with. The UK's

dominant in financial services and

you cannot get a free-trade

agreement within the single market

at the moment. You cannot sell

insurance in Germany without having

a company in Germany to sell it.

They have never wanted to do

financial service is free trade. We

will be in a much better state

globally. You have seen the increase

in New Zealand's trade when they

went for free-trade and got rid of

their trade barriers.

A dramatic

increase in no global position. The

tragedy led to this and they reckon

a free-trade deal with America we

did 0.02% to the UK's GDP.

I have a

bone to pick with the BBC. There has

been a brilliant economic report are

independent, which has been given

very little coverage which is taken

apart the model that the Treasury

and the government put together. For

example, dealing with this. The

reason why you arrive at this, it

depends on what you assume to be the

actual savings on the border. The

government has only assumed a 4%

saving on getting rid of tariff

barriers. Almost every economist in

the world agrees it is nearer to 20%

saving.

This study has been covered

on the BBC it was on the Daily

Politics on Friday. It assumes zero

tariffs on absolutely everything. It

is an extremely optimistic forecast.

It assumes a 10% tariff at the end

of the day, it assumes tariffs

falling to an average of 10%, not

zero. If they went to zero it would

improve it even more. I have read

this report backwards.

One of the

officers says that while there will

be benefits from free-trade deals,

over time it would be likely we

would mostly eliminate manufacturing

in UK by the things that would be

worth it and it should not us.

That

was one of the original suggestions,

much earlier.

But he was one of the

authors of this report.

He was but

he has accepted this is not going to

be the case within this report.

They're assuming that the border

changes will mean less of a tariff

on the borders at average. That is

what happens in most other

free-trade arrangements. The point

I'm making is it has a massive

benefit to the UK for us to do this.

That is why going for a free-trade

agreement with the European Union is

the right way to go. We forget what

Europe itself once.

Labour is in a

complete mess about this. We will

talk to this about -- we will talk

to them about that.

They were in

favour of leaving the customs union

and the single market and Barry

Gardner said it was making a vassal

state if you stayed in the customs

union. We will ask Labour themselves

about that. Theresa May has made it

clear where out of the single market

and Customs union and I say to my

colleagues who want to change some

of this, just be very careful on

this one, because being invited into

a Labour Party tactical game which

will end up in real damage the

United Kingdom.

Iain Duncan Smith,

thank you very much for talking to

us.

So much for the Conservatives,

but what about Labour?

In 24 hours' time,

Jeremy Corbyn will give

a keynote speech on Brexit.

All the signs are that he will back

the UK staying permanently

in a customs union with the EU.

But over 80 senior Labour figures

have today urged Mr Corbyn to go

further and support staying

in the single market as well.

But how would that go down

with the millions of Labour

voters who backed Brexit?

Here's what the Shadow Brexit

Secretary, Keir Starmer,

said this morning.

Well, we have long championed

being in a customs union with the EU

and the benefits of that.

Obviously, it is the only way,

realistically, to get

tariff free access.

It is really important

for our manufacturing base

and nobody can answer the question

how you keep your commitment to no

hard border in Northern Ireland

without a customs union.

We have always said

that the benefits of the single

market must be there in the final

agreement and that is a really

important commitment

because in the end, however

you arrive at that, in whatever

the instrument or agreement it is,

the benefits have got to be there.

Labour is agreed on that end state.

There is obviously an argument

about how we get there.

To discuss this I'm joined by two

Labour MPs who fall on opposing

sides of the Brexit argument.

Frank Field campaigned to leave

the EU and Stella Creasy

is a supporter of the pro-European

group Open Britain.

Thank you both for coming on the

programme. Stella Creasy, you have

signed this letter to Jeremy Corbyn

to be asking not only to stay in the

customs union but also the single

market. If you're in both of them, I

really delivering on the referendum

Brexit result?

There are lots of

different combinations that still

see is leaving the European Union

but do what Labour people across

this country, and that is why there

is support across the country and

the party for this letter, which is

to protect the jobs and incomes. We

know that Brexit, any of the models,

I am horrified to your Iain Duncan

Smith dismissing the idea that

manufacturing may be at stake or the

numbers don't matter. It is a

massive hit on our economy. It is a

massive hit took peace in Northern

Ireland if we leave the customs

union. These are called labour

values and that is what we are

standing up for.

You're asking to

stay in the single market. The

problem with that is you thought an

election last year under a manifesto

which said that free movement will

end.

You cannot do both. I am in the

migration committee on the Council

of Europe. Lots of people are

willing to talk about how we make

freedom of movement work. They

recognise politicians have not got

it right across the continent. If we

are not fighting to stay in the

single market we cannot have that

conversation about what the reformed

freedom of movement might look like.

I think freedom of movement is an

important right for people in this

country. I do not want to have to

see the kids in Walthamstow

Birkenhead that their ability to

work for a company that has a base

outside the UK will be hampered by

decisions we've made. That puts them

in an austerity Britain and I do not

want to do that.

Frank Field, does

this sound like a Brexit you could

sell to any leave photo?

No, and you

know perfectly well we cannot sell

it. I am looking forward to what

Jeremy Corbyn says tomorrow because

you have hyped it up. On every vote

we have had Onuora before he came --

before he became leader, Jeremy

Corbyn and I were deeply suspicious

of this organisation which is

corrupt, it has never got its

accounts audited, it is bankrupt.

Whatever he says tomorrow he will

not be arguing to stay in the EU, he

will be arguing for the customs

union?

Please, let me finish. It is

deeply corrupt. It is bankrupt. It

has destabilised Europe with all

this pretence about it has brought

peace. Look what we have done to the

area around Russia. Given there are

number of states within Europe who

depend on our contribution, we

should be voting for a clear

decorate -- a clear declaration, we

want a free-trade area, and we have

money. What are you going to choose.

I think we should take the gloves

off in these negotiations and look

at the real power structure. They

need our money, and for reasons

which Stella Creasy has put forward,

we need access to a free-market

arrangement.

What is your problem

with Jeremy Corbyn saying that the

Labour policy will be too clearly

stay in a customs union?

Two things.

One, it goes against what we said at

the election. It goes against all

the scare tactics during the

campaign, all the major figures were

saying, you know, if you vote here,

you're leaving the customs union,

you're leaving the free market.

There was no question about what the

referendum was deciding. And the

politics of this is, are we going to

be run by a London agenda? I know

Stella Creasy has got other issues

that she reaches out across the

country, but this is essentially a

London agenda against Labour voters,

particularly in the North.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

You have got the mayor of Liverpool

who signed this letter, the leader

of Newcastle Council.

You and I

would in the lobby fighting together

against this government's welfare

cuts.

£12 billion cuts.

That is

nothing to do with this. It

absolutely is. Even the bare minimal

model we are talking about would be

ahead on our economy and the

communities we represent. How can we

vote Forestieri the? How can you do

that to the voters, the People who

work in the Vauxhall plants in the

Wirral who are frightened they are

about to lose their jobs. How can

you do that to the People in

Northern Ireland?

Let me answer you,

please. We have been through the

courts. There is no problem about

the Good Friday Agreement being

challenged by this at all. We have

got time, I am happy to discuss it.

I think there are problems with the

Good Friday Agreement and a customs

union.

No, it will remain. If we

have time, I would love to discuss

that with you. About austerity, can

I answer that? We are net

contributor. We will have money to

be brought back. While some people

have signed the order leaders even

there, when you look at the

parliamentary arithmetic, Mrs May

almost hollowed out our vote in the

seats were only kept by a handful of

votes. These are seats which voted

very clearly to leave. That is the

act of faith. I know there are

problems about how do you give the

electorate the sovereignty to decide

an issue and then bring it back into

a representative parliamentary

system, but the vote was cleared to

leave. The bill is about leaving and

whether we support that or not and

if we do not support that, I think

Labour voters will draw their own

messages in the North.

Please do not

drive Boris's bars for the People of

those communities. You're saying

that somehow we will get money back.

All the evidence shows is that any

money you get back will be dwarfed

by what we will lose. You're talking

about £1 billion coming back.

about £1 billion coming back.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

You can talk across me all you like,

the numbers are there in the

government's on analysis. That is

what we have to front up to the

communities we represent.

Are you

going to write on the People's

decision to leave?

You're coming out

with all these things, we will stay

in a customs union, we will stay in

a single market, the decision was

quite clear to leave. In the north,

Labour voters voted very, very

clearly. You going to rat on them or

not? Never mind about buses and all

the rest of it.

It does matter. Let her answer. It

is about the evidence that we now

have. Democracy did not stop the day

after the referendum.

People have a

right to see the detail.

Of course

they do. Do you accept that the

government figures show clearly that

if we stay in the European economic

arrangement, which is out of the EU,

we are still going to take a 16 pelt

-- a £16 billion hit on our economy?

That worse anything you get back.

This letter is not just signed from

people across the country but people

across the trade union movement

because they because they know the

hard Brexit the government is

pushing for and why it matters

Jeremy Corbyn is fighting for the

customs union and single market

membership.

It means jobs and wages.

What we should be fighting forest

sector agreements with the European

Union. We want a free-trade area.

They have always opposed the

activities of the city. There is no

need to worry about the city. There

is a need to worry about

manufacturing and we will make

special arrangements with them. The

issue is clear, do we disguise the

fact by pretending we're going to

have a customs union or some other

arrangement which counters what the

clear declaration of northern Labour

voters actually said?

They have

changed their side. A third of

Labour voters did vote for leave.

You risk them abandoning the party.

This is not about rerunning the

referendum. It is about what kind of

deal do we get and is it in the best

interests of Britain. I believe

voters across this country have the

right to know what is likely to

happen.

THEY ALL SPEAK AT ONCE

Of course they have a right.

A right

to every bit of information going.

The key thing, we have had a

referendum and we rarely use

referendums for this reason, they

are difficult to implement. The

referendum decision was clear and

particularly clear in the North from

Labour voters. I want to keep faith

with them. I voted to come out. I

know it is harder for people who

voted to stay in. Are we going to

dress up a retreat, Agassi?

Then

there is a complicated decision for

you to make. We've been talking

about the amendment put forward by

Anna Soubry and others, an amendment

to the trade bill that will be voted

on in a few time. There is a

potential to defeat the government

is Jeremy Corbyn comes out in favour

of a customs union and whips his MPs

to vote that way. If you had the

opportunity to win a vote against

the government and bring down

Theresa May, would you vote with her

to keep her in office or against?

That is not the choice and you know

that. That will be the choice on the

day. We will have a decision, do we

continue to implement the referendum

decision. I shall be voting for

that.

Even if that is voting to prop

up the government?

It is not about

propping up the government it is

about implementing a decision of the

People. The government has a

majority on this. The idea that Anna

Soubry is going to lead all these

people into the labour lobbies is

just fairy tales. But we will see on

the night. The government will win

comfortably and double figures on

this issue.

Frank Field, Stella

Creasy, we will have to leave it

there. Thank you very much.

The local elections in May will see

many seats in the big metropolitan

councils in England up for grabs,

and the Conservatives may need

to brace for a difficult night.

A YouGov poll predicts

Labour could seize several

Conservative councils in London,

including one the Tories

have never lost before.

Emma Vardy looks ahead.

Not since the swinging '60s has

anyone done better in local

elections than Labour

could be about to.

A recent YouGov poll is predicting

Labour will sweep London

with the best results for any

party since 1968.

One of the most enduring Tory

strongholds is here.

To this day, Westminster,

with its largely affluent

population of voters,

has never had a Labour-run

authority, but if the poll is to be

believed, that could now change.

This council has been

Conservative-controlled ever

since the borough was created

in the 1960s.

But if the swing was big enough

to turn this council red,

that would top off a very good

night for Labour.

The Conservatives are at position

where they could potentially

be left with just one,

maybe two councils in all of London.

I think that would be a bad night

for the Conservatives,

but it is possible.

They are having to fight to hang

on almost everywhere

they still have representation.

But away from London,

it could be a different story.

Birmingham City Council has been

controlled by Labour since 2012.

They hold around two-thirds

of the seats here, but there

is anger over a bin dispute that

lasted for months and left tons

of rubbish on the streets

uncollected, and resentment over

budget cuts that are

affecting local services.

It does not matter who is in because

there is nothing between them,

that is the problem,

because Birmingham is basically

screwed by central government,

who have reduced all of our grants.

There has been a lot of problems

with the bin collections.

Yes, there have.

Oh, yes.

The Labour run council

got the blame for that?

Yes, I would say so.

The more it dragged

on, certainly, yes.

This will be the first all-out

election for Birmingham City Council

since boundary changes,

so there are 101 seats

here all up for grabs.

It is a place Labour should do well,

but could the party be

punished over those bins?

Back in the summer, of course,

we had the bin strike.

It was not the city's

greatest moment in time.

When I became leader of the council,

I pledged we would resolve that

dispute, which we have now done.

We, the Labour Party

here in Birmingham, are committed

to maintaining weekly bin

collections going forward

for the next four years,

a commitment I've yet to hear

from either of the

other two parties.

Here in Birmingham, the council tax

has gone up over 20% in seven years,

but services have gone down,

and people are seeing rubbish

left on their streets,

and they feel it is time

for a change.

There are plenty of other

places who survive

on fortnightly bin collections.

With council budgets

being constrained, is that

not a sensible option?

In Birmingham, we are absolutely

clear that weekly bin

collections need to remain.

Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats

and the Greens remain much

stronger in local government

than they are in Parliament,

and in May, they will be

fighting to increase

their local authority presence.

While Ukip are likely to continue

to struggle to reverse

the party's decline.

But if the story of the night

is the biggest Labour

success since the '60s,

any high-profile defeats in Tory

strongholds could start to make some

Conservative MPs worry

about their constituencies ahead

of the next general election.

Steve, Kate and Iain

are still with me.

Let's pick up on the local

elections. Kate, should Theresa May

be deeply worried about this, what

she expected a bad night and what

might the consequences be?

No doubt

she will be worried but my favourite

thing is Everything is underlined by

the fact people care more about

things than other things that is

what politics comes down to, at the

end of the day. I think Theresa May

will be worried. -- it comes down

bins. It is a battle ground for

those parties. Places like Haringey,

if you see what has happened to

Labour in those areas, and how

powerful momentum and the left have

become in local politics, you see

how much it matters to Labour. I

think the Tories will be worried,

particularly about London. As the BT

said, Labour expect to do quite well

and that is not going to look very

good. Brandon Lewis, the new

chairman of the party, said last

week we expect big losses in London.

He is setting that already. I think

the Tory party is worried. In areas

like Birmingham and other areas

around the country, Brexit is likely

to be important and I think that's

why it comes back to labour being

modelled on Brexit. People vote with

their feet. If the Tories can win

back some seats like burning in

other places, it might not be a

massive all-out loss lost them on

the night.

Expectation management

already being Manoj

already being Manoj -- being

managed. Actual voters telling us

what they think. Did they have

consequences that Parliamentary

politics?

They could do this time.

It reminds me, Steve will remember

this, 1990 when the Tories did

disastrously in local elections.

Kenneth Baker went out on the

streets and exempted we kept once

loved. I don't think that will

happen this time. Kate is right,

Brandon Lewis, the Tory party

chairman has already started to

manage expectations. He generally

believe they are in for a drubbing,

particularly in London. These will

last up for grabs in 2014 when Ukip

are doing well. In the last year,

Ukip's vote has virtually

disappeared. So all three other

parties, their votes have gone up in

by-elections. It depends where that

vote goes, Wilbur Liberal Democrats

be able to hold onto the seats they

won in that year? -- Wilbur Liberal

Democrats be able to hold onto the

six? I think it will be a drumming

but I think it will be patchy. Andy

Street has been reasonably popular

in the West Midlands. If they do

that they will have a 1990 situation

and that is all they will talk

about.

Even if they lose

Westminster?

Probably.

How important

is it for Labour to do well, do they

seem to be be -- do they need to be

seen making advances, to keep up

with the idea they are on the Tory's

heels?

I think it is important for

that whatever happens I don't think

it will have a huge impact on the

national picture because I think it

will confirm the dynamics as they

already are, in other words Jeremy

Corbyn has been in a strong position

since the general election and that

will be confirmed. Theresa May has

been in a fragile position since the

general election and that will be

confirmed. But by that point Brexit

will be reaching or coming close to

one of its several climactic son I

think that will shape the national

picture. The local elections will be

really important for local

government, who inherit the

nightmarish budget. It won't change

the national picture very much.

Iain

said Ukip's vote has been falling

and they have had their troubles

recently as well. Important to see

where their vote goes and confirms

we are moving back to two party

politics maybe?

I think it does

nationally but locally it's a

different picture because the Ukip

vote tends to go on all kinds of

directions. It doesn't necessarily

go where you think it will. So the

Liberal Democrats and the Greens do

quite well at local elections,

whereas nationally they don't do

very well at all. I think sometimes

you do see people who would vote for

any other party going for any other

party and not necessarily the Tories

and Labour. I think it comes down to

how much this comes down to Brexit.

Do people care more about Brexit or

bins question mark in areas like

London, I think Brexit and bigger

national issues will have a bearing.

Brexit one way or another will help

with your bins?

London has become a

Labour city. Huge capital city with

millions and millions has become a

Labour stronghold. That is

significant for all kinds of

reasons. It has also become as

strong as it used to be in Scotland.

Even in 2010 in the general

election, London voted Labour by a

wide margin. That is quite a

significant development.

We need to

leave it there just now, coming back

to you later in the programme.

It's coming up to 11.40,

you're watching the Sunday Politics.

Still to come...

We speak to Former Northern Ireland

Secretary James Brokenshire

about returning to Parliament

after major surgery for cancer.

Of students, and that support will

also be available on a pro rata

basis to part-time students, so

these people choosing to study and

work or perhaps who have caring

responsibilities and need to study,

or

or perhaps students who are older,

looking to perhaps retrain or apps

kill themselves at an older age,

we've got to get away from simply

regarding students as 18-year-old

school leavers, and that's why our

system in Wales reflects that.

But

whatever happens in England will

also have a big

Hello and welcome to

Sunday Politics Wales.

Later in today's programme,

what's Wales doing to get ready

for the carless world?

Not much, according to Plaid Cymru,

and Julie Morgan will be

here to tell us why she wants to be

Labour's number two in Wales.

But first, tuition fees

were in the news this week

when Theresa May announced a review

of how they work in England,

although scrapping

them is off the table.

It is, of course, one of those

areas which is devolved

to the Welsh Government,

but what happens to universities

across the border has

a massive impact over here.

So what could it mean in Wales?

That was my first question

to the Education Secretary,

Kirsty Williams, when I met her

in her office in Brecon.

At the moment, because it's just

a review, it's difficult to estimate

what the impact will be,

but I welcome the opportunity

to share with colleagues

across the border in England

the findings of our Diamond Review

that looked at sustainability

within the higher education sector

and how we can best

support students.

In fact we've already shared that

information and the work we've been

doing in Wales as we implement

what I would regard as the most

progressive system of student

support anywhere in the UK.

And to an extent, do you think

rather than just looking at the fees

issue, should they also be looking,

as Diamond did in Wales,

at the grants issue as well,

that maybe increasingly

that is a more important issue

for students than tuition fees?

Absolutely.

If you listen to students and those

representing them in the NUS,

it is maintenance, the upfront

living costs, that are of most

concern to students.

That was echoed in the findings

of the Diamond Review,

and that's why we in Wales have

taken the decision we have,

that from this September,

the start of the new academic year,

we will be providing support

for children and students from less

well-off backgrounds

with generous maintenance support.

Also, crucially, what we are doing

differently in Wales is recognising

that there are different types

of students, and that support

will also be available on a pro rata

basis to part-time students,

so that people choosing to study

and work or perhaps who have caring

responsibilities and need to study,

or perhaps students who are older,

looking to perhaps retrain

or upskill themselves at an older

age - we've got to get away

from simply regarding students

as 18-year-old school leavers,

and that's why our system

in Wales reflects that.

in Wales reflects that.

But whatever happens in England

will also have a big impact

on what happens here in Wales,

even though it's a devolved area,

and one of the things they've been

talking about in England is having

different fees for different courses

and kinds of courses.

Do you think that would necessarily

have to be in the case in Wales

were it to happen in England?

You're absolutely right,

we can't pretend that because this

area is devolved we don't have

to take cognizance of what happens

in England, and I am especially

concerned that there were major

changes in England that have

financial consequences.

That would need to be reflected

in the Barnett Formula and how money

flows from Westminster to Wales,

but on the issue of differentiation,

I think we need to be

really cautious here.

It was something Diamond looked

at and didn't recommend,

and I would hate for us to be

in a situation where certain

institutions or certain courses

were only available to a cohort

of students who could

afford to do that.

What is really important

is that we have equity in our system

and that your ability to study

is based on your innate talents

and desire and ability

to reach your full potential,

and we shouldn't be closing off

options because there

is differential fees or costs.

But would it be beyond your control?

But would it be beyond your control?

Can you conceive of a situation

whereby there are these differential

fees being charged for different

courses in England,

but not in Wales?

Do you think you would have

to follow England's lead?

We would have to look at how

we support our system

in the light of changes

across the border in England.

We've always done that.

But I would really,

really warn against that.

Indeed, other people who have looked

at the system have highlighted

the problems with that.

Justine Greening, who of course has

just left her job at the last

reshuffle in Westminster,

from the education portfolio -

she herself has at a very early

stage warned against that,

because she recognises,

as we do in Wales, the impact that

might have on social mobility

and creating a two-tier system

where those who can afford cam

and those from less well

off background cannot.

You mentioned the new offer

being made to students which will be

rolled out from September this year,

where grants appear rather

than paying an element

of the tuition fees.

Where are you on that now,

how ready are you, how good to go

is the new system in Wales?

Everybody has worked really hard,

including the Student Loans Company,

which of course is the organisation

which administers the grants

and the fees system and loan system

for us, so I am confident

that we will be in a position

to roll out Diamond for both

undergraduate, part-time

and full-time students.

We have interim arrangements

in place for postgraduate,

and the postgraduate elements

of the Diamond reforms will come

fully onstream a year September.

fully onstream a year September.

To what extent are you confident

that you know what kind of student

will be accessing what kind of money

and how much money, because the very

poorest students will be

eligible for £10,000 grants,

then £7,000, and

everyone gets £1,000.

Do you know who will be

getting what, roughly?

As you quite rightly say,

every eligible student from Wales

will be entitled to a £1,000

non-repayable grant,

because we recognise there is a role

for both the individual

and the state.

The individual benefits

from a higher education,

but so do we as a nation,

and we want to reflect

that in ensuring that we

contribute for everybody.

But then we have the

means testing element.

We anticipate that approximately,

on current data, around a third

of Welsh students will be

eligible for the full grant,

and an average Welsh student

in the system at the moment

at the moment would be,

going forward,

eligible for a grant

of around £7,000 a year

towards upfront living costs.

So that's one element

of your brief, higher education.

But then to look at schools as well,

and the results we get

from schools and so on,

we have just seen a few days ago

some data being released,

specifically on the level two

thresholds, how many GCSEs

they get between A*-C,

and they have to have five

to cross that threshold.

The Schools Challenge Cymru,

a set-up with £10 million to help

managing schools in Wales,

was scrapped when you became

Education Secretary.

But the latest statistics

for the schools show

they did really well.

34 of 39 of those schools saw

an increase, 12 by more than ten

percentage points in just three

years - a remarkable

turnaround for those schools.

Was it wise to scrap that

scheme, do you think?

Let's be clear, when

the scheme was established,

it was a time-limited scheme to be

able to accelerate improvement

in those schools causing the most

concern that that particular

point in time.

It was the right thing to do then.

Crucially, what we are doing now

as ensuring that all schools,

Crucially, what we are doing now

is ensuring that all schools,

whether they were a part

of the original scheme or not,

where there are concerns

about performance, they are able

to access support from our regional

consortia, so I congratulate those

schools who have made progress,

and unfortunately in some areas

progress has been made

despite that investment.

progress has not been made

despite that investment.

What is crucial for me going forward

is that we have made resources

available to the regional consortia

so that the learning from what had

been Schools Challenge Cymru,

which made a difference to those

schools not performing

where we wouldn't be,

how we can use that learning

across the whole of the sector,

so that all schools can benefit

from that learning and that support,

rather than a small number

of schools that were included

in your original scheme.

in the original scheme.

But you don't have any

concerns at all, then,

or any fear that perhaps having now

pulled the plug on that funding,

those schools could be

going back a step in future?

What was really important

is that we saw sustainable

change in those schools,

sustainable ways in which that

change could continue to move

forward once the scaffolding,

the extra scaffolding of the schools

challenge scheme was brought away,

because it was always the intention

that the scheme would

be time-limited.

Those schools needed an extra boost,

extra support at that moment.

Many of them have

made good progress.

Unfortunately not all.

What is important now

is that we give all schools

the opportunity to learn from that

experience and have that

support rather than a small

number of schools.

But it was always a time-limited

programme, and what we do need

to ensure is that we have a self

improving system across all of our

schools where we can learn

from the best and embed sustainable

change so that can be

built upon year-on-year.

Kirsty Williams,

thank you very much.

You're welcome.

The year 2040 might

seem a long way off.

It's 22 years away, since you ask!

But that's when the sale of diesel

and petrol cars will be

banned across the UK.

Well, we've been told

that the Welsh Government has no

plan in place to deal

with the changes.

Plaid Cymru AM Simon Thomas has told

this programme Welsh ministers

are "off pace" in developing

alternatives, like public transport,

walking and cycling.

Eleanor Gruffydd Jones reports.

Eleanor Gruffydd Jones reports.

Good evening and welcome

to Wales Today.

Our top story on Thursday

the 25th of February 2038 -

our main towns and cities in Wales

are officially car-free.

Bangor and Aberystwyth

are fully pedestrianised,

there is a metro system covering

Swansea, and cycle

superhighways all over Cardiff.

Is this what the future

has in store for us,

or is it all a pipedream?

We are a nation of car lovers.

There is one car for every

two of us in Wales.

That's above the UK average,

and that's a number that's gone up

over the last five years.

So we are being told

to leave our cars and take

other forms of transport.

Walk, even.

Because it's better for our health,

the environment, and our wallets.

And cities across Wales

are stepping up.

Cardiff, for example,

is rolling out these

Nextbikes across the city,

which are a bit like

Boris bikes in London.

You can pick them up in one part

of the city and drop

them off in another.

More cycle corridors

are planned, car-free

days in the city centre,

and, of course, that

new metro central transport hub.

So, is Wales ready for

that car-free future?

The UK Government has talked

about phasing out diesel

and petrol transport,

cars in particular.

The Welsh Government

has no plans for that,

and I think that's what the next

step for the Welsh Government

has to be, is how do

you prepare us for a future,

in just 20 years' time,

when we may not be able to buy

new purely diesel or petrol cars.

OK, then, let's see

what other cities are doing.

Over to Copenhagen.

Here, over half its people cycle

to work every day in bicycle

lanes spanning 200 miles.

It has set itself the target to go

carbon neutral by 2025.

Its former environment chief

wants to bring the Danish

revolution to Wales.

revolution to Wales.

Around 60% of Copenhagen residents

on bicycle tracks would say

they cycle because it is by far

the most efficient and comfortable

way to get around the city.

The amount of segregated bicycle

lanes you will see around Copenhagen

was the result of ongoing investment

over the last almost 100 years,

so it's a long process.

so it's a long process.

As a politician, I would suggest

that Welsh politicians should

basically stand up and say,

we would like this development

to start, we would like it

to continue, and we would actually

like to hand it onto the generation.

like to hand it onto the generation.

How about car nation Germany?

It is piloting free public transport

in five of its cities to meet

EU pollution targets.

Should Wales be using its ideas

to make public transport more

attractive than the car?

If you look at the quality of air

in our cities, it's not great,

so we are one of the worst areas

in the UK, and anyway,

we should be leading the UK,

we should be setting higher

ambition, really, to offer people

alternatives to the car.

I'm not sure we want to be

completely car free.

Some access is going to be required,

but it is used at the moment

as the first option,

and that, we really need to tackle.

Well, Cardiff University's Doctor

Justin Spinney suggests some outside

the box thinking which could just

put Welsh cities ahead

of their European counterparts.

of their European counterparts.

We could see the situation

where you will just say, "Alexa,

"I want my car outside my door

in five minutes' time."

It's not your car, it

would just turn up, it will do

the journey want to do,

and that it will go home.

the journey want to do,

and then it will go home.

We are way off the pace.

We don't have a coherent plan.

It's left far too much

for individual local

authorities to decide.

It hasn't always been their fault,

because I don't think the UK

Government has been particularly

good on it either, but the really

positive thing is, there

are lots of examples out there.

Cities, towns and communities have

done this, and they have done it

in an effective way,

and they have taken the public with.

in an effective way, and they have

taken the public with them.

In terms of the Government,

do they want to get

people out of their cars?

I think they do.

You know, in Wales,

we have the Welsh Active Travel Act,

we have the Future Generations Act.

Both of those are a real

commitment to more liveable,

sustainable places.

If we come back to that idea

of the car as a benchmark

in terms of comfort,

convenience, enjoyment,

sociability, trying to encourage

people out of their cars

is a real uphill struggle.

The Welsh Government says measures

such as the Clean Air Plan

and the Active Travel Act have set

the wheels in motion.

It says there are already positive

signs in areas such as public

transport and electric cars

which show we are on our way

down that car-free path.

down that car-free path.

Now, the race is on to be the first

Deputy Leader of Welsh Labour.

The job has just been created,

and the rules say if the leader

is a man, the deputy has

to be a woman.

Two women have put their

hat in the ring to be

Carwyn Jones' number two.

We hope to speak to Carolyn Harris

in the coming weeks,

but this week it's the turn

of her opponent, the Cardiff

North AM, Julie Morgan.

North AM, Julie Morgan.

Good morning.

Why'd you think Welsh

Labour needs a deputy, you have done

well till now, why does it need to

be created?

It is important to have

two people at as leader and deputy,

and with the rules we have brought

in we need to have one always being

a woman, and I think that is good

because we need to have a lead ship

reflecting the public, in which

women can relate to, so it has been

very good in order to make the

leadership more representative of

the country. I think that's one of

the main advantages.

What is your

pitch going to be? This is the job

interview element of it, what will

you bring to the role?

First of all,

I am the only woman, possibly the

only person, who has been a

councillor, an Assembly member, is

an Assembly member at the moment,

and who has been an MP, and I don't

think there is any weren't -- there

is anyone else of that experience in

Wales. Maybe the person let alone

woman. So I bring experience and

knowledge of those areas, and adding

it is important we don't think in

silos of air dams, MPs, local

government, we want to work

together, and I think I am in a

unique position.

But those silos do

exist. Wouldn't it be better if the

deputy was a member of Parliament as

the leader is, in the Assembly,

wouldn't be better to have the

deputy in Parliament?

You would then

restricted to an even smaller number

of people. As it is now it is

restricted to 58 people who can

apply be deputy. I think the

important thing is the job and what

you can do with it rather than

whether you are an AM or MP or local

government leader, but I must say I

regret there is no local government

leader on the ballot paper because I

think that would be a great

advantage.

Debbie Wilcox, the

Newport council leader of the Welsh

government local government

Association stood down and is now

supporting you. What would you bring

to the role, what is your pitch, why

should they vote for you?

As I say I

bring the experience, but I also

have the experience of a very

marginal seat in Cardiff North. I

thought I'd kept that seat, Labour,

on and off most of the time, and we

had to campaign for every vote

there. I can bring a campaigning

ability, and in the last Welsh

Assembly elections, I have the

highest number of votes for any

individual can sit in Wales.

What is

the point of the role, then?

Campaigning is one of them, you

think?

I think that is part of it

and one of the key points is to

engage the 25,000 members, because

we have been very successful in

Wales, we have been very successful

throughout the UK, but we do have

25,000 members, a huge number of

people, lots of potential, and I

want to work with them and harness

their energies and abilities, and I

want them to feel it is meaningful

to be a member of the Labour Party.

My main aim is to work with the

members.

How will you do that?

In

Cardiff North I have a red gazebo

and I go around every part of

Cardiff North putting up the red

gazebo is a trademark, seeing people

and discussing their issues, and

that's what I would do all over

Wales, I would go around with a red

gazebo and talk to members of the

public, find out the key issues they

want us to campaign on, so it would

be a consultative role. I would

certainly do that with members as

well. The members are spread out all

over Wales and I think it is

important that we act on an all

Wales level. Consult the members,

meet them all, decide the important

issues for them, and make them feel

the party is there for them to

fulfil their dreams and wishes, why

they came to the party.

What happens

if the message you get from the

membership is at odds with what the

leadership is doing? Are you Carwyn

Jones's voice to the members or the

members's voice to Carwyn Jones?

I

see that is not a conflict at all.

It could be, couldn't it?

The

important point of the post is to

give the members that potential,

that way of saying what they feel.

Inevitably there is conflict, there

was always conflict whenever you

form ideas and policy and that is a

good thing. I would see myself as

the conduit that would enable that

to happen.

You said you know there

will be inevitably divisions within

the party. How will you manage those

divisions and how do you make sure

there is a united front for the

party?

You make sure there is a

democracy embedded in the party, so

everybody has a chance to have a

fair say, and then you would vote on

things democratically. You have the

opportunity to discuss things that

length, and I think people can

always accept if their point of view

doesn't come forward as long as

there has been a fair chance for

them to be listened to.

What you

think the mothership in Wales is

made up of, is it people who have

joint because of Jeremy Corbyn and

that element or is it because of the

track record of Welsh Labour,

because they are probably two

different things.

It is both. We

have a really good track record in

Wales, you only asked to look at

what happened to the Labour Party in

Scotland. -- have to look. Welsh

Labour has kept its identity as

Welsh and been very successful. Some

of the new members have certainly

come because of the Corbyn bounced,

and it is great that they have

joined, and I would want to

represent every one of those

members, anyone who is a Labour

member, member in Wales or whether

they joined recently as a result of

Corbyn, but I think as well as

Corbyn it would be a result of our

success in Wales. It often isn't one

or the other.

You said earlier it is

important that the deputy is a woman

because women in politics can relate

to you then. I wonder how you feel

about how safe place politics is for

women in Wales at the moment.

This

is something we have to explore. It

is obviously a sensitive subject and

we have had a very difficult time in

the Assembly with all these issues

that have come up, but I think it is

essential, the role of the deputy,

particularly at this time if the

deputy will be a woman, to look at

whether it is safe in the party for

women in Wales.

You think it is?

That is something we need to do is

discuss. I know women have expressed

individual concerns, so I think the

role of the deputy would be to

explore that and find out how women

feel. Traditionally it has always

been difficult for women in