18/05/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands

Good morning. Welcome to The Sunday Politics. Just four days to go until

election day, and be warned, coming to a street near you, a party leader

on a charm offensive. They all want your vote in the European elections

on Thursday, and in the local elections across England, too. Polls

are all over the place this morning. Your vote could make a

difference. This man is 11 points ahead in one poll, he has promised

an earthquake on Thursday, but what then? Our Adam has braved the

campaign trail, he has been asking all

this week, a last look at the euro elections, and the 50th anniversary

of the first elections to London's 32 boroughs. I am in the studio,

with those who think they have got all the big answers. Nick Watt,

Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh. So, it is the European elections for

everybody on Thursday, local elections for England and a bit of

Northern Ireland as well. They are the last elections before the big

one, the 2015 general election. Some say that these European and local

elections will not be much of a pointer to how the big one goes. But

that will not stop political commentators and party gurus from

examining them closely. So, what is at stake? Thursday May the 22nd is

local elections and European Parliament elections.

These local results should be known by Friday. In the European

elections, all 751 members of the European Parliament will be elected

across Europe. 73 MEPs will be let it by people living in the UK. But

the results will not be announced until Sunday night, after voting has

closed throughout the 28 member states of the EU. Nick Watt, we are

in a position where the polls this morning cannot tell us what the

outcome is going to be on Thursday, and the general election is still

wide open - we really are in uncharted territory? Also it is

difficult to know where we are, because there is that ComRes poll

which shows an 11 point lead amongst those certain to vote for UKIP, and

another poll in the Sunday Times showing that it is a much more

slender lead for UKIP. But we know that will they win? We do not know,

but clearly they will unsettle the major parties. Fall or five months

ago, we assumed that the UKIP success would create panic in the

Conservative Party, but that has been factored into David Cameron's

share price. The Conservative Party is remarkably relaxed at the moment,

and I wonder whether this time next week, when we have the results,

whether the two political leaders who will be under pressure will be

Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg. Nick Clegg, because they could go down

from 12 MEPs to maybe just three or four. And Ed Miliband, because, one

year before a general election, he should be showing that he is a

significant, potent electoral force. So, they should all be

worried about UKIP, but whereas a couple of months ago, we would all

have said David Cameron was the one who should be worried, now, we are

saying it is Mr Miliband and Mr Clegg? And of the two, I think it is

Ed Miliband who should be worried. The Lib Dems are an incredibly

resilient party. He described his own party as cockroaches, and

incredible resilience! I think the Lib Dems are ready to take this one,

but I think Labour are really wobbly at the moment. What UKIP has done,

to England, it means that England has caught up with Scotland,

Northern Ireland and Wales, England now has a four party system, which

makes it all the more uncertain what the outcome will be? Yes, but

whether UKIP finish first or second, it will be the biggest insurgent

event since the European elections began in 1979. People talk about the

Greens in 1989, but I think they finished third. Were UKIP to win a

national election or even finish runner-up, it would be truly

historic. It is reflecting on something which is happening across

Europe, pianist in Italy, Holland, France and in this country. --

populist parties. And it makes first past the post look absolutely

ridiculous. You could be in a situation after the next general

election where Labour do not get the largest percentage of the vote but

they get the largest number of seats. First past the post works

fairly if there are only two parties, but when there are four...

We will talk more about that. Let's speak now to Suzanne Evans of UKIP.

She is at Westminster. Now, UKIP claims that there is going to be an

earthquake in British politics on Thursday. Suppose there is, what

does UKIP then need to do to become a more grown-up, proper party? I

think UKIP has very much become a grown-up, proper party. We have been

around for 20 years. What we are going to be doing after the European

elections, if we do cause this earthquake, and the polls are

looking like we are going to, is we will be firmly looking towards 2015,

getting our general election manifesto out, to keep those votes

on board from the euro elections and putting forward common-sense

policies which really will bring Britain back to the people. We want

to be able to hold the balance of power come the general election. If

we can do that then there will be a referendum. That will be our aim.

You say you are a more grown-up party, but when you look at the

stream of gaffes and controversies created by your candidates and

members, I will not go into them this morning, at the very least, I

would suggest you are needing a more robust system of selection? You

could say the same for the other three parties, who have been around

for a lot longer. They have got nothing like the embarrassments you

had. I am afraid they had. Just this week, since Monday, we have had 17

Liberal Democrat, labour or Conservative councillors either

arrested, charged or convicted on all manner of offences. In addition

we have had 13 who have been involved in some kind of racist,

sexist or homophobic incident. I am not saying I am proud of any of

that. The whole of politics probably needs to be cleaned up, but I

certainly do not think we are any worse than the other parties, who

have much greater resources than we do. Those other parties are even

putting people in power who they know have got criminal convictions

or who have previously belonged to far right, fascist parties like the

BNP. Can you continue to be a one-man band? The only time any

other UKIP petition makes the headlines is when they say something

loony or objectionable? We have a huge amount of talent in this party.

We have fantastic spokespeople across the patch, the huge amount of

expertise in the party. Inevitably the media focuses on Nigel Farage,

who is a fantastic, charismatic leader. But believe me, there is a

huge amount of talent. When we get our MEPs into power after the

European elections, we will see many more of them I think on television

and radio and in the newspapers. We are not a one-man band. Who runs

your party? The party is run by Nigel Farage, our leader. But he

spends all his time running between television studios and in and out of

the pub! You would be amazed how much he does, and of course we have

a National Executive Committee, like the other parties. So who runs it?

The National Executive Committee, in conjunction with Nigel Farage, the

MEPs, the spokespeople, it is a joint effort. Your Local Government

Minister Stosur is, if you vote UKIP, you go on to pledge that your

councillors will not toe the party line, how does that work? -- your

local government manifesto says... On the main policies, they will toe

the party line, because that is obviously what people will be voting

for. It is no good putting forward a manifesto like the Lib Dems did on

2010 and going back on it. We have put forward a lot of positive -- a

lot of policies at local government level, and those we will stick to.

But when it comes to individual, local issues, say, a particular

development or the closure of a school, whatever, UKIP then will

vote what they think is in the best interests of the people in the

borough, and not according to any party whip system. This plays out

really well on the doorstep, I find. People do not want their politicians

to be in the pockets of their party, putting party first, ahead of

the people. You want people to vote to leave the European Union in a

referendum - have you published a road map as to what would then

happen? Yes, there will be a road map. The Lisbon Treaty for the first

time gave us that exit opportunity. Have you published a road map? I am

not the legal expert on this but there are ways in which you can come

out of Europe fairly quickly. There is a longer you all as well. But

have you published any of that detail? Not that I have read. But

certainly there are ways to do it. We are the sixth strongest world

economy, I think we are in a strong position having left the EU to be

able to negotiate a very good trade deal with the European Union. It is

what people voted for in 1975. What would be our exact status? It would

be I think what people voted for back in 1975. An independent,

sovereign country in a trade agreement, a very positive and

valuable trade agreement with the European Union. I voted in that

referendum, I remember it well, 1975 involved the free movement of people

's... That is something which I do not think UKIP or the country wants.

70% of people now are deeply concerned about immigration. So it

would not be 1975, then? Andrew, it sounds like you are complaining that

we might have something which is better than 1975. I am just trying

to find out what it is! That sounds like positive to me. We will

negotiate a trade deal and all manner of issues, whatever is best

for the British people. We want our sovereignty back, we want our

country back. Would you be upset if a bunch of Rumanian men moved in

next door to you? Where I live, I am surrounded by one and two-bedroom

flats. If ten Rumanian men moved in next door to me, I would want to ask

questions. That is very different from say a Robinho family moving in

next door. I would think, are they being ripped off, are they up to no

good or are they perhaps being trafficked by a gang master? So I

think it would be of concern, and I do not think there is anything wrong

with that, it is a humanitarian approach. That would be different

from a family moving in who were learning to speak English, who

wanted to contribute to the British economy. Maybe if your boss is

watching, he will now have found out how to answer that question.

Now, what is more glamorous, 24 hours in the life of a

counter-terrorism agent, or 12 hours in the life of Adam Fleming, on the

campaign trail? I will let you make up your own mind. So, it is eight

o'clock in the morning here in Westminster. Today's challenge is,

how much campaigning for the local and European elections can we fit

into 12 hours? See you back here at eight o'clock tonight. Wish me

luck. With my cameraman and producer, we went to Thurrock in

Essex first. I got a very, very warm welcome from Abe buoyant UKIP. They

have never had this much attention. One candidate's misdemeanour ends up

on the front page. But you have got Lib Dem candidates being convicted

of racially aggravated assault, and that was not on the front pages of

the newspapers. Houdini is fine but it must be applied evenly. Have you

had to sack Thurrock UKIP members for dodgy tweets or anything? Oh,

God, no. Next we head to meet a top Tory in a different area. We are

heading to Eastbourne. But stuck in traffic. We are going to miss

William Hague. We got there, just in time, to ask the really big

questions. David Cameron went to Nando De Colo last week, where are

you going to go for lunch? I do not even get time for lunch. I think

something in the back of the car. We will go down the street and see what

people have got to say. Even the Foreign Secretary has depressed the

flesh at election time? Even the Foreign Secretary meets real people.

The message William Hague impresses upon everyone he meets is that the

Tories are the only party offering a referendum on our membership of the

EU. He's off for lunch in the limo. I've got five minutes by the beach.

This is the best thing about elections, lunch. Do you want one?

And chips are weirdly relevant at our next stop - the Green Party

battle bus which is parked in Ashford in Kent. What is special

about this vehicle? It runs from chip fat oil so it is more friendly

to the environment. But boss was boiling. The next stop is Gillingham

to see Labour. Labour have just hired Barack Obama's election guru

David Axelrod to help them craft their message. What does David

Axelrod know about the people who live on the street? I know the local

details but you handle those. Ed Miliband and his party have had to

handle a few dodgy opinion polls lately, prompting some leadership

speculation from one activist. Who is your favourite Labour politician?

Ed Balls. Back in the car and we're flagging. Final stop, Southwark in

south London. We are in the right place, this is Simon Hughes' Lib Dem

taxi. The Lib Dems are campaigning as the party of in. But are they in

trouble? Your party president said the party would be wiped out and

lose its MEPs. Is that helpful? If he did say that, then no, that's not

terribly helpful. And let's not forget, every London council is

having elections too. I have 40 minutes to get back to the office in

Westminster, which calls for something drastic, like this. After

212 miles, but will be make it home for eight? We have made it, aided,

12 hours of pure politics. Happy elections, everyone.

Adam Fleming impersonating Jack Bauer! Natalie Bennett is in our

studio, welcome back. The Greens used to be the upcoming party in

Britain, now it is UKIP. What went wrong? We are in a very good place,

looking towards travelling our MEPs and we could be the fourth largest

group in Parliament after these elections. More and more people are

recognising we are the only party calling for real change, the only

party saying we have two stop making poor, disadvantaged young people

over the mistakes bankers. You have made a strong pro-environment stands

synonymous with the politics of the left, why have you done that? Why

should an equal minded Conservative vote for you? I think one of the

reasons why many Conservatives, I met them in Chester where they are

stopping coalbed methane exploration, lots of Conservatives

are looking to vote for us beyond issues like fracking and the Green

belt, and many of them are concerned about the fact we haven't reformed

the banks. This morning we had the Bank of England chief coming out and

saying we have a huge house price bubble and people recognise that

many of the parties offering the same are not working. And yet the

polls show that the hardline greenery is not winning. We are

looking to travel our number of MEPs and we have people recognising that

we have to change the way our economic 's, politics and society

works so that everyone has sufficient resources within the

limits of the one planet because one planet is all we have got. You want

all electricity to be generated by renewables, is that right? So where

would the electricity come from on days when the wind is not blowing?

Most of the electricity is there. It is mature. We need to be hooked into

a European wide grid, we need a smart grid that will allow for

demand to be adjusted according to supply. So we would take French

nuclear power, would we? We need to work with a partnership across

Europe. We are being left behind and we are losing opportunities. 50% of

German renewable electricity is owned by communities and it stays

within communities, rather than the big six energy companies. So you

have still got to take the French nuclear power. What we need to

do... Nuclear is a dead technology, going down in the developed world.

At the moment the Government proposes the most expensive proposal

for Britain and yet the last two plans took 17 years to bring online,

way too slow for what we need now. We know what the Green council would

be like if you were to win more seats on Thursday because you run

Brighton. Your own Green MP joined strikers against the council, the

local Greens are at each other's throats, a council ridden with

factionalism, attempts to raise council tax to 5%, attempted coups

against the local Green leader by other Greens and you have had to

bring in mediators. If you look at the life of people in Brighton and

Hove, it has seen its visitor numbers go up by 50,000, it has

become the top seaside resort in Britain, we have seen GCSE results

going up significantly. These are the things affecting people's lives

in Brighton and Hove. 60% of Brighton and Hove people think life

is better and the Greens. We have a debate to be had from next year's

election and perhaps we can have that debate next year. But you hold

up Brighton as the way the city should be run? We have made huge

progress, we have found money to be brought into the city to improve

Green spaces. I was on the big ride in London yesterday, and we need to

change our roads so they worked the people as well as cars. Which side

of the picket line were you on in Brighton? With Caroline Lucas? I was

in London, travelling around as I do most days. From Penzance to

Newcastle and many areas in between. Probably a good move. Thank you. I'm

joined now by the Conservative MP, the Lib Dem MP Simon Hughes and

Sajid Javid. We want to see a European Union resolutely focused on

the single market, free trade, and only we can bring about that change.

Labour and Lib Dems are happy with the status quo, in fact they would

like more integration, and a UKIP party can not deliver the change.

Hilary Benn, at this stage positions usually romp home in European

elections and no party has gone on to form a government without winning

the European elections first. Now it suggests you could become second,

you haven't handled UKIP very well either. There is a lot of alienation

from politics around, globalisation has left some behind and people are

concerned about that but UKIP will not provide the answer. Nigel Farage

only talks about Europe. We are to hear it would not be in the

interests of British people to come out of Europe. We do want a season

change in Europe, for example we want longer periods when new member

states come in. We don't think child tax credits should be paid to

children not living in the UK, but Nigel Farage is also proposing to

charge us when we see the GP, to halve maternity pay, and he wants a

flat tax. UKIP is not the answer to the problems we face and we will

continue to campaign as we have done to show that we are putting forward

policies on energy prices, and in the end that is what people will

look for. Simon Hughes, you will be lucky to come forth. The voters

decide these things. Really? I never knew that. My response to the UKIP

question is that they get support because they have never been in

power, they are never likely. A bit like the way you used to never get

into power. I accept that, but now we are in government. The reality is

that laws made in Brussels, we make together by agreement, and it is the

case from the Commons figures that only seven out of 100 laws are made

in Brussels. Actually they have been shown not to be the only ones. 14

out of 100. If we were to come out of Europe, we would seriously

disadvantage our economics and the jobs... 3 million jobs depend on the

European Union. If the Conservatives comes third or even a poor second,

it will show that people don't really trust your promise about

European referendum. They have been there before, they don't trust you.

What we have already shown, despite being in coalition with Liberal

Democrats, we have shown progress on Europe, we have vetoed a European

treaty when people said we wouldn't, we have cut the European

budget which is something Liberal Democrats and Labour MEPs voted

against, we cut it by ?8 billion. But overall we are still paying

more. We have still cut it. We have taken Britain out of the bailout

fund that Labour signed us up to. We are now going to take that same

energy to Europe and renegotiate our relationship and let the British

people decide in a referendum. Why has Ed Miliband become such a

liability for your party? Even your own MPs are speaking out against

him. If you look at the polls, we have been in the lead almost

consistently. The voters will decide. Ed Miliband is a decent man,

but what really marks him out is that he is thinking about the

problems the country faces. Simon and Sajid both support the bedroom

tax, we will scrap it. Ed Miliband said the energy market doesn't work

for consumers, we will freeze energy prices while we change the system.

So why are his ratings even lower than Nick Clegg's? They will be

voted for next year in the general election, and if I were David

Cameron I would ask myself this question - the economy is

recovering, why is it that David Cameron and the Conservatives have

been behind in the polls? Because in the end the big choice in British

politics is between the two parties that say, if we sought the deficit

everything is fine, and Labour who say that there are things about this

country, the insecurity that has given rise for support for UKIP, and

we are the ones talking about doing something about zero hours

contracts. The more your leader bangs on about Europe, the worse

your poll ratings get. He is out of the kilter with British people. It

may not be a majority of people who think that we ought to stay in the

European Union, but when you speak to people about it, people

understand that we are better in them out. In the elections on

Thursday, that is not about who runs Britain, that is for next year. In

terms of the local councils, we have battles on the ground, like in my

community, where we are trying to take it back from the Labour Party.

Affordable housing has just not been delivered. We have delivered that in

office and we had admitted to that. -- we are committed to that. Labour

have actually demolished homes. So, people want more affordable homes.

One issue which is behind people's antipathy towards immigrants is that

they cannot get the affordable housing they need. We as a

government have delivered more affordable housing in this

Parliament -170,000 new properties earning and more, over the next

three years. That does not work out that very many per year. Overall

housing is a lot less than it was in 2006. Let me tell you, under the

Labour government, we lost nearly half a million affordable homes.

Fewer built than under Mrs Thatcher or under the coalition. What is your

last ditch message to the millions of Tory voters thinking of voting

UKIP on Thursday? First, what I would say is, Ed Miliband also said

that we should not tackle the deficit, it was not a priority. As a

result of our resolute focus, we now have the fastest growing economy in

the developed world, and more people employed than ever before. I am sure

you will have more chance to say that at the general election, what

is the answer to my question? We need a Europe which is focused on

free trade and the single market. Labour and Lib Dems are happy with

the status quo, we are not. We are the only party which can bring about

change, UKIP cannot bring about any change. Hilary Benn, why not have a

referendum on Europe? If you think like Nigel Farage that you should

get out of Europe, I do not agree with him, because Britain's future

lies in Europe. My message simply would be, vote for a party which

wants to tackle insecurity in the workplace, to give more security to

the 9 million people who are now privately renting, build more homes.

What Simon has just said about the coalition's housing record, it has

been appalling, the lowest level since Stanley Baldwin was Prime

Minister. With Labour, you have got a party which will freeze energy

prices, more childcare, policies which directly address the problems

which people face. I think the public will realise that. UKIP

offers absolutely nothing at all for the future of the country. You used

to be in favour of a referendum? We are in favour, we voted for one, we

have legislated for one. The next time there is a change between

Britain and Europe, in the relationship, there will be a

referendum. We have supported that. We voted for it. You would obviously

want to vote yes in any referendum. We would. But if you had one now, it

would be for coming out or staying in, and you are going to wait until

there is another step son shall transfer of powers to Brussels, and

then say to people, either vote for this substantial transfer or vote to

leave! Of course they will vote to leave! Yes, we are not natural

partners with the Conservatives, but we do not want to be distracted at

the moment by a referendum in the future in relation to Europe.

Because what we have done is built our own economy back. That has been

the priority. We do not want artificial priorities. The Tories

want an artificial date plucked out of the air for their own advantage.

We say, let's get on with being positive about being in Europe, and

many people on the doorstep absolutely understand that.

Yesterday, the Energy Minister said that he thought the party would be

willing to campaign for a British withdrawal from the EU if there was

not a successful negotiation, a successful repatriation, do you

agree with that? First of all, I am very optimistic... I got that I am

going into these negotiations with confidence but Michael Fallon is one

of your ministerial colleagues, he said that if we cannot get a deal on

substantial repatriation, then the party should be willing to campaign

for a British withdrawal - do you agree? My view is that I am

confident we will get a deal, and then we will put it to the British

people. But you will have to take a line. If you do not get substantial

repatriations, will you side with Michael Fallon all with the Prime

Minister, who seems to want to stay in regardless? I may only have been

in politics for four years, but I am not going to ask that kind of

hypothetical question. Every question I ask is hypothetical, that

is the fascination of the programme! I go into these negotiations with

complete confidence. If you look at our track record, it suggests we

will be successful. Hilary Benn, what is the difference between your

attitude and that of the Lib Dems towards a referendum? We have been

very clear that if it is proposed at sometime in the future, further

powers would be transferred, then, we would put that to the British

people in a referendum. That is the Lib Dem position. This is our

position, which I am planing to you. It would be an in-out referendum. We

would only agree to a transfer of powers if we thought that it was in

the interest of Britain. But we believe that Britain's place remains

and should remain in Europe, for economic reasons. But we also want

to see some changes in our relationship with Europe, and

electing Labour MEPs on Thursday will be a way of boosting that

argument. In what way is everything you have just said not entirely sell

my must with the Lib Dem position? I am not worried about that. --

entirely synonymous. It is the dividing line between us and UKIP,

because they somehow believe that Britain leaving the European Union

would be good for our economy. Truth is, it would be really bad, because

so many jobs depend on being part of a large market in an increasingly

globalised world. I have got one more question for you on the locals.

We seem to have lost our connection with Leeds. What is the single most

important reason that people should vote for you in the local election?

Because taxpayers' money is just that, it does not belong to the

politicians, and we can do a lot more and get more for less with

taxpayers money. If you look at Conservative councils up and down

the country, most of them have not been raising council tax, they have

been getting more for less, and that is what people deserve. We will

produce the maximum amount possible of affordable housing to meet the

housing needs of Britain, instead of the richest minority having flats

and houses that nobody can afford. We seem to have lost Hilary Benn. I

can answer for him. I will do it - he would certainly say, vote Labour.

You are watching The Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

Hello once again from the Midlands. Sunday Politics Scotland. Coming up

Hello once again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns. And welcome to

this, the second of our live debates with candidates from all four main

parties contesting this week's European elections here. A week

tonight we'll know who's in and who's out, the seven MEPs who'll be

representing nearly six million Midlanders in the European

Parliament for the next five years.So who'll be delivering their

victory speeches, and who'll be putting`on more or less brave faces

in defeat? Anthea McIntyre is a Conservative MEP in the outgoing

Parliament. Neena Gill is the Number One Labour candidate. Phil Bennion

is our one Liberal Democrat MEP in the outgoing Parliament. And Jill

Seymour is top of UKIP's candidates list. They will welcome to you all.

And that's not all. Nearly 350 council seats will be contested in

18 authorities here, in Thursday's local elections. Two`thirds of them

happen to be in places with marginal Parliamentary constituencies, so

there should be no shortage of General Election pointers. Our BBC

WM Political Reporter Kathryn Stanczyszyn has been to Tamworth in

Staffordshire ` a place with historical ties to a former

Conservative Prime Minister. Tamworth has been associated with a

specific piece of political history for 180 years ` Sir Robert Peel's

famous Tamworth Manifesto. This a significant intense political

history. It was a key moment in the way our Government run. Peel's

manifesto paved the way for modern Conservatism. It talked about the

widespread reform ` ideas you could say resonate with the current

Conservative Government. In 2014, what are the local political

manifestoes for Tamworth itself? At the moment the Conservatives have 17

seats out of 30. Labour hold 12. There's just one left over ` a

single independent. The Conservatives have run the council

here since 2004 ` but this year they're facing the strongest

challenge from Labour in a decade. And the party hopes if it's good

news this month ` it'll be good news at next year's General election.

Labour says this is one of two target seats for them ` and they're

canvassing hard: all we need to do is win three more seats. We need to

take control of the council that way. That is doable. That'll be the

stepping stone. The battle for Tamworth has been and is again

essentially a two`horse race ` the Liberal Democrats are fielding just

one candidate in the ten wards. We have a message to get through. Maybe

we have had some people retire this year, but we have new members coming

on board all the time and I think they make good candidates for the

future. But there is a possibility of a significant UKIP effect in the

area ` At the Staffordshire County Council elections in 2013 ` UKIP

took a 14 per cent share of the vote. The party's fielding six

candidates. What UKIP stands for in Tamworth is giving democracy back to

the people. At the moment, we have the Tories and Labour and it is

pretty much a 2`party system. When one party voted out another come in

and nothing changes. And it's the Conservatives ` defending a

dwindling majority ` that could fare worst if there is a UKIP effect.

They say they've done enough to make sure that doesn't happen: I believe

the Conservatives have every chance. I think our campaign has been

honest, we have engaged with people, we have tackled issues, we have kept

council tax low and I think the public will appreciate that. An

exact repeat of the results of 2012 would leave Labour in charge by a

majority of just one. The Conservatives insist they'll keep

Tamworth ` something no doubt Sir Robert Peel would approve of.

Kathryn Stanczynszyn from the home town of the father of modern

Conservatism, now a prime Labour target. Tamworth in a way, embodies

this debate. Because, the council looks like a relatively easy win for

you, but the Parliamentary constituency, with a 6000 majority,

that is a different kettle of fish. It raises this question of whether

you're going to be 35% strategies or the wider middle England appeal that

we saw in 1997 for example. My own experience out about in Tamworth is

that we are getting a really positive response and Tamworth is

one of our target seats. Tamworth is, but what about the wider issue.

Shrewsbury, Worcester and the middle England effects? Will stand Tamworth

are our targets. So you will lot fired hard Shrewsbury? no. There are

a number of seats for the Labour Party to target in the West

Midlands. We are targeting Tamworth. My own experience on the doorstep is

that our message of local offering an national offering is going down

very well on the doorstep. So a very positive response. Labour's

agenda... Phil, you are a Staffordshire man. But it is almost

a Lib Dem free zone. No councillors for that part in Staffordshire? How

will you fight back as a farmer? We have started fighting back in

Lichfield. We have regained a seat in a by`election that we lost to the

Conservatives in 2011. Tamworth itself has never been fertile area

for that. Stony ground for the Lib Dems? Staffordshire is probably our

weakest area in the West Midlands. We have got a history of success in

Newcastle and the moorlands. But if you look further south, in

Birmingham for instance, we are looking for a much better

performance in... Than we had in 2012. We are hoping to get some

seats back in Birmingham. Thinking of local elections Jill, UKIP are

really a major force. We do not really have true for party politics

the way we do in the European debate. So what is your distinctive,

local election campaigning theme going into Thursday? We are

resonating with the actual electorate on the streets. In

Tamworth specifically at the moment, there are issues about where they

are putting an increase of housing. There has only been about 200 over

the past year and what is happening is that they are taking over the

golf course, they took back thousands of new houses there. They

are also breaking down and disseminating their local hospital.

So you're picking local issues? Yes. We have 75% of the local candidates

in the West Midlands. In some constituencies we have a full slate

of candidates. And this Anthea, is the challenge facing the

Conservatives. You have two frontier. War on two fronts at the

same time and as any tactician knows, that is not a comfortable

place. We are fighting to win every Conservative vote and keep control

of the council. That is not a problem having two separate enemies.

We are putting forward a very clear message from the conservative point

of view. We need reform in Europe, we need to recoup renegotiate and we

need and in out referendum. Only the Conservatives can give you that and

that is the message that I am putting out in Tamworth and

everywhere else. Andrew Neil raised this question, that if the bee

negotiation does not deliver what everybody in your party hopes for,

then the Conservatives would lead an exit strategy, a campaign to come

out. You say you are clear as a party, so let's have it. It is very

clear we need reform. So the first thing we need is a renegotiation.

And when we have something that brings powers back to the member

states that we have already managed to cut the budget of, so that will

be a good sign. But all of these things, when we have something

positive, we put it to the British people and it is them that decide.

Not the Conservatives, not the other parties. But the British people.

With apologies to viewers in Gloucestershire who have your own

Euro`elections to look forward to, for seats in South West England, six

of the 11 parties standing in the West Midlands are explicitly

anti`EU. Two of them are led by local MEPs in the outgoing

Parliament. Both were elected for UKIP last time round. They'd

campaigned together only to split up. Mike Nattrass has served two

five`year terms. But having fallen out with Nigel Farage and failed to

be re`selected by UKIP, he's launched a new party which will head

the alphabetical lists on most ballot papers in England. We are a

democratic party. We are to the left of the main party involves,

certainly, because we do not believe in privatisation. In fact, the EU

are rampant privatisation experts. They want the railways privatised,

they want everything privatised. The one that worries me most is

privatisation of NHS. That name party seems to think it is a good

idea. You cannot bring yourself to mention UKIP by name. Is this really

politics, or your personality clash and Nigel Farage? He now runs the

party as a one`man band. He makes policy on the hoof, he has destroyed

or the policies of UKIP. You will find now, that of the toll

collector, with him in 2009, six have walked away because of his

excesses. And of the six remaining, he only backs to. And get UKIP I

never been so popular. They are threatening a remoulding of British

politics in the way that didn't happen when you were involved. That

is because they do not know the people behind the sign. Those people

have changed. You will find that most of the originals, like myself,

are not in the party any more. Just months after she was elected, Nikki

Sinclaire was expelled from UKIP for refusing to join them in the

European Parliament's Freedom and Democracy grouping: "holocaust

deniers" she calls them. Her referendum petition forced David

Cameron to the dispatch box where he became the first Conservative Prime

Minister to be defeated on the European issue. Unlike him, she's

demanding an In`Out Referendum now. the referendum that Cameron has

promised is too far away. We need one before the next general

election. If you take the most pro`European argument about the U,

that it is dependent on European Union for jobs and investment, I do

not except that argument. But if that is the case, the worst you can

create around jobs is uncertainty. He's good to great a three`year

uncertainty. She says she's had a bigger impact on the European issue

in her one term as an MEP and all of UKIP's members of th European

Parliament have achieved over three times that long. I started a

campaign. I created `` all those signatures I collected. Not one of

those was Nigel Farage's. UKIP failed to support my campaign and it

is the only tangible thing that has moved this issue forward. And Nigel

Farage and UKIP have been there for 15 years and in four and a half

years, outside UKIP, that has been one MEP, me, and I have moved that

issue along far more than them in 15 years. White After the campaign

she's due to answer police bail at the end of the month, more than two

years after her arrest on suspicion of conspiracy to defraud the

European Parliament. Macro The full list of candidates is on the BBC

Politics website. We asked West Midlands Police why their

investigation of the allegations against Nikki Sinclaire was so

painfully long and drawn`out. They told us these are complex inquiries

involving evidence`gathering in many different countries. They appreciate

the impact this has on all concerned, but such allegations must

be thoroughly and professionally investigated. Nikki Sinclaire

strenuously denies any wrongdoing. Jill, the evidence their show that

Nicky Sinclair, in one term, as an independent MEP, has done more to

move this European issue on in the debate than all of your MEPs

combine. In 15 years! I think you'll find as we have tripled in our

membership of the past couple of years, the people do not believe

what's Nicky has done a one situation... She has energised this

whole thing though. I agree. In hindsight, that is an excellent

achievement. But that is also created a real issue about the

public that they do not have their say. And I think with UKIP at the

moment we have such a clout now with the people, they know we are the

party, you have to have a fair amount of people in the European

Parliament to make them start to listen and that is the way we are

moving in UKIP. Isn't the Lib Dem party taking a huge gamble now,

being so much the party... We heard Nick Clegg make a very direct

personal attack on Nigel Farage. It is all getting a bit unnecessary

isn't it? I do not fit we need to be personal about this. The view of

business and the view of the people, we are seeing now two consecutive

opinion polls saying that we should be staying in full stop I think even

people who are slightly Eurosceptic are now saying that they will look

at their head rather than their hearts. Our view is that outside of

the European Union, we will not have full access to the single market and

it will cost us jobs. Politics is about hearts as well as heads. It

is, but in the long term, people start to think about their own self

interest and the national interest. The national interest is served by

being inside of the EU. But you are in a bit of a tryst labour, in terms

of clarity. We have the party bin and the party of out that your

position on the referendum may be... It is not clear. It is not the

clarion call that other parties offer. We have a clear position. It

is not in our interest to have a referendum. Already, you know, the

impact of David Cameron calling for a referendum has created in big

businesses expressing concern. A lot of global businesses saying they

will question whether they invest in Britain as a result of this

referendum. What's he has actually achieved by his recklessness is that

he has undermined our position, not just over here, but also in terms of

our influence in Europe to change things. So our position is very

clear: If we see more transfer of power, that is when we will have a

referendum. We do not think it is in the interest of us here in the West

Midlands to have a referendum right now. And that is a point and that is

a pointer Nicky Sinclair made. That David Cameron has ushered in this

period of uncertainty. It is one thing that business hates. If are

talking about jobs then it is uncertainty act hates that rabbit

that the hates most. We can see that now. We can see companies trying to

bowl their headquarters here. Those companies, they want invest in the

UK because of the number of issues. And because of our situation. So it

is good that we are seeing unemployment steadily coming down.

There is no point having a referendum tomorrow. We cannot we

can't because Lib Dems and the Labour peers in the Lords blocked a

referendum just recently. So it is clear that we cannot have one until

we have a Conservative Government. Not a coalition, but a Conservative

Government. UKIP are never going to have any influence in Westminster.

So let us negotiate, let us get the best deal possible and then have a

referendum. I'm just couldn't go round each of you and ask you what

he would achieve as an MEP in your own case. Jill first. As an NEP, we

will have a lot more after May. So we will probably double our quota.

My achievement personally, I would like to see us get this referendum

earlier. Because Cameron already knows that it is reforming the

Lisbon Treaty on the 1st of November and that will be more or less a way

to sign away the UK's independence. But what have you achieved as an MP?

I got Green and save a lorry through Parliament. That proposal has now

got to be negotiated with member states and we are also seeing them

trying to backslide, so I want to be there to be sat forward in

negotiation. A lot more issues that I have dealt with with the salvation

communities that macro South Asian communities. What would you say your

work that likely your signal achievements were? Getting funding.

I was on the budget committee and I was able to get considerably more

resources. But I think there is a real job of work to be done out

there in terms of getting more investment, creating more jobs and

especially, when it comes to the guarantee scheme, we need to tackle

youth unemployment. And there is a fund at European level and is

committed not taking up that phone. Briefly, your signature achievements

as an MP and they are. Getting a report through the Parliament goes

as a resolution to cut red tape for small businesses and make Europe

hospital or jobs. Thank you for the moment. Now for our regular round`up

of the week in Sixty Seconds. It's another of our campaign specials,

brought to us today by BBC Midlands Today's Elizabeth Glinka The "Get

Cov Back to the Ricoh" campaign is standing against Labour council

leader Ann Lucas in Coventry. They want to pressurise the council to do

more to get Sky Blues back from exile in Northampton. UKIP kept

onside, launching their regional local and European election campaign

at St Andrew's ` the home of Birmingham City FC. They'll be

hoping they can do better than the Blues ` in both footballing and

political terms! The Liberal Democrats big guns were on hand at

an apprenticeship event at Solihull College. It came in a week which saw

more positive economic news for the region as unemployment fell by

13,000. And the English Democrats field a full slate of candidates in

the Euro elections in the West Midlands. They want an English

parliament. And they have a regionally popular message on where

it might be located. Acquire like the idea myself. Litchfield is a

very historic town, very English. It also goes by and as associations

with the... We should point out Derek Hilling was speaking for

purely himself in that clip. It is not official party policy for an

English Parliament to be here in the Midlands. Not yet anyway. It would

very handy for an MP3 Litchfield view? Litchfield was of course

ecclesiastical capital of Britain. England does get overlooked.

Largely, that is our own internal problem. We have a constitutional

situation where England is or doesn't get the same is that is as

Scotland, Wales and the devolved nations. And Jill, it is the UK

Independence party which suggests to me you an optically begun England

either? From the principle there, we believe there is an unfair plane

feel at the moment. We should be looking at having more involvement.

We can't have involvement in Wales or Scotland at the moment, we

definitely do not want to see Scotland break away from us. Wants

to you thing being this dimension is? You unleashed this wave of

devolution. Englander does appear to be puny in comparison with others,

despite being the largest country in Europe. Fire macro I think it is

regrettable that we lost regional representation. But at the end of

the day, I am not sure people want more parliaments. That is clear in

many of the referendums and others we have had. We do not appear to go

for more devolved assemblies. Would you vote for an English Parliament

and the? We do not want regions in a federal Europe. What we want is a

United Kingdom with its parliament in Westminster representing all of

us. All others then represented by the parliament within the European

negotiations with the member states. So, not regionalised things,

keep Britain together. That is why I hope Scotland will stick with the

rest of the UK. How on earth then do MEPs that I could you as MEPs

reconcile this problem of representing Stoke, Stratford,

Cheltenham, the Staffordshire Borders? It must be a difficulty. We

are concentrated in getting funding in. Right across the region. We are

working together with the local authority leaders . We are setting

up mechanisms where we can ensure we are fair between representing Stoke,

Coventry, Wolverhampton and Birmingham. You are the party

grassroots, a word? I'm all over the region. Jill, you get the last word.

we have been all over the West Midlands in the last few weeks.

Certainly, the seven MEPs have worked hard to get representation.

Just a week now and so we know the outcome. Thank you all. Starting on

Thursday evening, I'll have the latest from those of our councils

counting on the night. That's in Vote 2014 from 11.35 here on BBC

One. With further reports from the others counting on Friday during

Midlands Today and on your BBC local radio station. Meantime, the

European votes will remain in cold storage until a week tonight after

polls have closed elswehere in Europe. It would never do for the

West Midlands results to skew the voting

thank you very much indeed. Back to Andrew.

Welcome back. Politicians always insist in public that opinion polls

do not matter. Even though their own parties each spend a small fortune

on private polling. If they take them seriously, so do we! Let's take

a closer look. First up, how the votes might fall for the European

Parliament. Back in January, Labour looked set to finish first. By

April, UKIP had edged into the lead. According to today's poles, Nigel

Farage's party is either down into place, or has soared ahead. Both

cannot be right. It is a similar picture for the general election.

Labour's lead has been cut back by the Tories. This is the most

unpredictable general election in a long time. It keeps us in a job! We

are joined now by the managing director of the pollsters, ComRes.

Welcome to the programme. While the polls all over the place on the

European election? We are trying to do two things, figure out who is

going to be voting, and how they are going to be voting. I think a lot of

the polls are predicting quite high turnout. They are looking at more

than 50% turnout, which is simply not can be the case. So, what we are

doing is predicting it based on those who are ten out of ten,

certain to vote, and it really benefits UKIP, it benefits them

democratically, demographically, with the older age profile, who are

going to vote. Another poll gives them only a one-point lead, so, come

the results coming out, you are either going to look away ahead of

your time or very stupid? Absolutely. That is the job of

pollsters. Somebody has to be wrong. Ultimately, we were spot on in 2009,

and we are hoping to be spot on on Thursday. So you were spot on on

voting intention in 2009? Yes. What does the indications of what is now

a four party system mean, does it change the nature of your methods?

It changes how we look at the polls, how we look at what is going to

happen as a result of the vote. Predicting the number of seats is

becoming more and more important and more difficult to do, because

distribution is becoming fundamentally important. Because it

is for parties? That's right. . Does the polling give us any evidence to

try to settle the matter of whether UKIP votes are coming from? Yes. We

know that over 50% of the UKIP vote share is coming from the

Conservatives come people who did vote Conservative in 2010. But

actually, the other 50% is coming from a wide range of different

sources. And what we are seeing is that ultimately, every single

establishment party should be worried, because the people voting

for UKIP are the people that really do not like politics at the moment.

They are wanting people to speak on their behalf, so it affects all of

them. There is evidence that there is now a move of some working-class

Labour votes to UKIP as well? That's right. That is what I mean about the

establishment vote, the people that they can really reach out to, who

are really interested in things like immigration, in those single issues,

where they do not feel the political parties of the mainstream are

representing them. I would suggest that for the European elections,

where turnout is low, ComRes may be right or wrong, but likely to vote

would seem to be the yardstick. I would say that is true in almost any

European election apart from this one. Because there has been so much

attention on this election, because of UKIP and the probably do that

they will win second, I wonder whether it is now such a big topic

of conversation, the subject of Nigel Farage, that people who would

otherwise talk a good game about voting UKIP but do not show up on

the day are this time around likely to show up on the day? I am not

entirely convinced by that. We underestimate how many people are

completely disengaged by politics. I think it is very easy for us to

think, and I agree that by any other standards, this is the most coverage

a European election has ever had in Britain, but still, most people

don't care. Instinctively, Nick, you would think, if you are a UKIP

photo, if you have made that choice, then you would probably be more

motivated to go and vote on Thursday? I am sure that is right.

Also, the publicity that Nigel Farage has had. And also, as

Catherine says, people are attracted to UKIP because they are annoyed

with the established parties. If you have made that big decision to do

it, then you will probably do it. The really big question which we

want to take out of these elections is, how many people who have left

the established parties, left the Conservative Party, in these

elections on Thursday, how many of them will stick with UKIP and how

many of them will go back? Nigel Farage is very confident, he is

saying that 60% of those certain to vote UKIP will stick with UKIP. If

that happens, it is a real problem for Downing Street. Downing Street

are basically saying that many Tories will have a fling with UKIP

but they will return to the marital home next year. You do two sorts of

polling, for the European elections, and for the general election, which

may be more relevant to the local election voters, but what is the

answer to his question? We do not know at the moment. We when you ask

people how likely they are to vote in the same way, they are thinking

that actually, I am going to vote in exactly the same way at the general

election, they are not going to say, I am going to split my vote. I think

the key point is, what happens in the Euros. We have a fixed term

parliament, which means momentum is crucial. What comes out of the Euros

will be a statement about how well UKIP can last for the next year, or

indeed, if it comes second, it is about momentum and feeling about the

parties. I do not think we can tell yet. If UKIP does well, there could

be some leadership crises we will have to cover. I want to look at a

couple of the headlines on the screen. Now, it seems, as you can

see from the Mail, Mr Miliband could be in some trouble. The Labour MP

for Rochdale talking about the mantra of misery which is Labour's

policy is not going down well. And there are also rumbles about, if Mr

Clegg comes fourth or even fifth in the European elections, that there

will be a plot to remove him. There are not many names behind that plot

yet, but Vince Cable does get an honourable mention! Not that he is

plotting, but he could take over! If Labour comes a poor second, and the

Tories are third, and Nick Clegg is nowhere, there is a

Clevedon-Miliband agenda, isn't there? It will be very different for

each man. The worst thing that could happen to Labour is if Nick Clegg

loses his job, because he will be replaced by somebody substantially

to the left of him, you would have to assume, someone like Tim Farron.

I think it is unlikely that David Laws Danny Alexander, the two

prominent figures who are to the right of him, would win the

leadership. If it is someone who is quite a way to the left of Nick

Clegg, then some voters might find the party a more attractive

proposition. Which is why the Tories want to hold on to Nick Clegg.

Absolutely. But I think you are right, there is a really big bubble

for Ed Miliband here. The second big thing, I do not know if you saw the

photo opportunity this week, Boris Johnson strolling through a garden

with David Cameron, they got off the chew one-stop early just to

appreciate the spring sunshine. But where are the shadow cabinet? I hear

rumours of a politician called Yvette Cooper, but I do not know

what she has been up to recently. And Rachel Reeves and Andy Burnham,

all of these big hitters are not lashing themselves to the mast of

the Labour election campaign. And some of these big hitters are

immensely talented, Rachel Reeves, Chuka Umunna, these guys are really

talented. You get the impression that they are watching this as you

say and biding their time. Ed Miliband has bet the farm on this

calculation that there has been this rupture between the rise in wages

and the rise in inflation, although that is now beginning to slow. The

calculation he is making is that in the 2012 presidential election, Mitt

Romney was ahead on many of the economic indicators, but Barack

Obama won because he said, I am on your side. He has bet the farm on

that. But there is a big difference between Miliband and Barack Obama,

which is that Barack Obama was elected in 2008 after the crash, so

everything he did was about rescue. The problem for Ed Miliband and Ed

Balls is that they were in power when the crash happened, so it is

difficult to make that comparison. Labour is nip and tuck with the

Tories, or ahead by a small amount - Mr Miliband's personal ratings are

much worse than what David Cameron's were at the same stage in

the political cycle, does that matter? I think personal ratings do

matter, particularly if things like Ukraine gained more prominence in

the media. It is a question of who you want as your statesman. But on

the economy specifically, actually, the economic ratings in terms of

confidence in the leader has not changed. That has not changed for

years now. It is pretty stable. Actually, the narrowing of the polls

could be due to the usual narrowing about 12 months out from the

election, and Labour really need to use the momentum. Thank you for

that. Plenty to talk about after you all go to the polls on Thursday.

There will be tonnes of election coverage and results on the BBC,

Thursday night, Friday, and of course, Sunday night, when the

European results come out. Daily Politics is back on BBC Two tomorrow

lunchtime. I will be back here next Sunday at 11 o'clock as usual for

The Sunday Politics. Remember, if it is Sunday, it is The Sunday