25/05/2014 Sunday Politics West Midlands

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

And in the Midlands, the local henhouse.

And in the Midlands, the local electorate has spoken ` but what has

it said? The UKIP surge wins them 30 new council seats. And the Greens

are celebrating: could they get into Europe

hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.

More analysis in just over half an hour.

Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --

bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The

Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of

the losses in previous years, the local government base has been

whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European

Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are

announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats

have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West

Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked

incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is

perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you

trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core

values of our party. This is how the party president

responded. At this time, it would be foolish

for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us

from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,

we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The

major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike

the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.

Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different

people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own

activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at

holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some

people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should

stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible

Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my

conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to

my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open

mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my

mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can

assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going

to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must

have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your

members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up

using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not

allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get

constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.

I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also

concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how

parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of

school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for

those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch

pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want

a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that

say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are

issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with

what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we

should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less

control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what

UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,

which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.

There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry

about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.

You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg

to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am

more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right

things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the

country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student

finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which

was to get a better system, more students are going to university,

and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.

But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It

depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,

I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing

to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost

300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable

and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to

we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,

and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking

away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor

is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do

they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is

reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had

towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.

And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.

Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has

transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had

it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest

party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it

all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would

look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are

seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a

Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have

never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they

are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?

-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a

business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is

Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his

best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person

who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on

this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of

government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no

overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.

They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour

Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and

sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am

every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was

like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not

provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug

and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the

next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are

finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the

show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could

not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves

to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work

out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.

Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in

charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,

working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the

results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of

activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.

What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital

dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of

accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of

the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are

coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined

David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election

centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things

have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will

see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,

and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old

messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper

exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.

In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get

in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a

rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but

they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel

Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best

form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP

and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious

proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on

board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but

they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success

story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at

those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you

shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,

that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general

election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,

on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not

to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has

been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will

still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the

second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it

is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have

taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the

next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under

the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in

government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single

Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,

who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?

Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not

enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around

Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council

wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked

on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead

and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to

Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national

share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,

only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in

2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about

what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken

away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You

are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst

defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters

is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the

presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the

local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true

that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because

you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest

of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because

London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the

warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting

up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down

the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was

particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear

before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote

for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said

London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest

of the country. One of the things that is different from London as

opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few

thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go

and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had

to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse

voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live

there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass

uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in

next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't

end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.

What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral

superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do

not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is

getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem

according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote

is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband

have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very

well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned

some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation

is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims

there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own

cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't

know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could

have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking

better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are

all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may

be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their

children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you

ask people about their future and their children's future and

prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you

in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP

and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be

with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you

put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with

the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they

are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are

going to back to the three main parties in general election. It

would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have

said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for

granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our

strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal

with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to

burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win

Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being

the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and

end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to

go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't

vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we

need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great

crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have

you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It

is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set

for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,

an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have

an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their

rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,

hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a

member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were

you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important

interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on

there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.

So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,

because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that

interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and

I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy

with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our

boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time

tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just

count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my

party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing

country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able

to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of

overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former

deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000

voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that

will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26

constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would

support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of

6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That

implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in

second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.

Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP

supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched

from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft

Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal

constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an

election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went

through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a

number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is

Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a

snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be

improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are

fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead

in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The

Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking

dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a

no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.

Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the

largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are

smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a

single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors

in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any

of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England

than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did

vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many

of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will

bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,

but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the

Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the

electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I

believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I

believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity

into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election

results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general

election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that

Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I

am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the

results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national

election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from

now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we

are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic

plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel

secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.

Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues

that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep

your promises. We have reduced immigration and the

amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a

couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to

under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have

broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU

countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming

here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help

fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here

to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our

intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream

politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you

be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,

correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit

your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards

the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of

under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.

But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote

UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a

referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but

still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted

for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about

the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the

political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address

them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a

treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely

to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it

will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a

general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will

run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust

the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to

2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a

better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in

a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about

Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I

do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see

Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that

is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way

that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a

majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect

better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they

have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national

government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are

voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want

to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to

see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your

party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,

like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015

to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%

behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a

year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly

deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.

We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am

a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be

helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good

friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best

things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,

you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a

pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a

market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should

not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no

pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say

goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election

Hello again from the Midlands. I'm coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

Hello again from the Midlands. I'm Patrick Burns and we're betwixt and

between today. Looking back to the local elections and forward to

tonight's European results, with Jack Dromey, Labour MP for

Birmingham Erdington, Lorely Burt, Liberal Democrat MP for Solihull and

Mark Garnier, Conservative MP for Wyre Forest in North Worcestershire.

And later we'll also talk to UKIP's Jim Carver, as he stands on

threshold of the European Parliament. Will he be among our

seven new West Midlands MEPs? Let's start with the local elections. The

UKIP surge duly delivered them 30 new councillors here, and the Greens

are now the official opposition in Solihull. No wonder the three

Parliamentary parties are all distinctly twitchy about their

general election prospects. And yet the earthquake promised by Nigel

Farage left the surface landscape here completely undisturbed. Labour,

the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats held on to what they had.

Nothing more, nothing less. Sian Grzeszczyk has the details.

Capturing their moment in history, this was a night to remember for

UKIP in Dudley. The great surge in our support in this election came

from disenchanted Labour supporters. The old tale of UKIP just hurting

the Tories and letting Labour in has been put to bed tonight. When these

results are analysed, you will see Labour has suffered at our hands

like they would never have dreamt. In Walsall, clearly a good night for

tailors specialising in making purple suits ` maybe UKIP will be

ordering a few more after picking up their first three seats here. UKIP

will do what we have always said: we will push for getting the things

that people want. We are looking to save money, but in the right places.

We do not have to do as we are told by any puppeteers in Westminster, we

can listen to the public and try to do what they want. Labour wanted to

take overall control here. They didn't quite make it, but are the

biggest party. At this moment in time, we are looking to take the

administration over. And if people have the same views and ethics as

us, then they can come and talk to us. But I think it is incumbent on

us to actually look to form an administration in the council.

Tamworth was another disappointment for Labour ` they were hoping to

take it for the first time in a decade but mist out as UKIP picked

up a seat and the Tories hung on. Labour are in a lot of trouble

really. This is one of the principal target seats and they're at the end

of an unpopular coalition, some would argue, and the Conservatives

are still holding onto Tamworth quite comfortably, some would say.

In Worcester, Labour will have to negotiate if they want to continue

running the authority as they didn't win enough seats to run it on their

own. We have held all our seats, in fact we have increased our votes in

some of those. But the overall issue is that the people of Worcester have

said it is a very tight vote here. And in most places, they have

rejected the national party. UKIP mist out in the second city and

Labour remains in power in Birmingham despite the rumbling row

over the so`called Garden Tax which saw bags of Green waste in the

streets. And in Birmingham Yardley, the Lib Dems performed strongly,

giving hope to the sitting MP for next year's General Election. It is

a marginal seat. It is obviously a marginal seat. One battles away, one

has to say we have done the best we can to take the country forward from

a difficult situation. Progress is being made, things are getting

better, stick with us. It was even better news in Cheltenham where the

Lib Dems retained control of their only council in the region and

gained a seat from the Conservatives. It is a lot of hard

work from a lot of people. We have a popular local Lib Dem MP in Martin

Horwood and the feedback we are getting is that people like what the

council is doing in terms of keeping the council tax down, but also in

protecting services. I think across the town, that message has paid off.

In Wyre Forest, Independent Health Concern had been the party of

protest but not anymore: they lost two seats whilst UKIP took their

first five councillors. It has been a very interesting experience today,

to learn how UKIP are appearing even in local politics like this. I had

hoped that maybe they wouldn't take votes from us, but obviously, they

have done. So we are not immune. We are just the same as all the others.

And finally to Solihull, where the Green Party made a breakthrough,

picking up seats to replace the Liberal Democrats as the official

opposition. You have seen in particular that Labour and Liberal

Democrats are really suffering here in Solihull ` despite the fact that

Labour should be growing, given that there is a General Election next

year. But here in Solihull, there is no support or appetite for that. We

bring something fresh, something different. And we present ourselves

by offering positive policies, so people are choosing the Green Party.

UKIP might not control any of our Midlands councils but it does now

have a foothold in local Government here. The question is, is this a

blip caused by the European Elections being held on the same

day, or is it something longer`lasting which the traditional

main parties will need to address? Sian Grzsezczyk, ending her report

with the question that's suddenly dominating the political agenda. And

so to tonight's European Election results. We heard John hemming early

in the programme saying he's going to be taken soundings among his

activist in Yardley on this question. Are you, in Solihull? I'm

always interested to hear what people think. This petition, that

has been signed I believe by 200 people out of 44,000 members...

There are 220 members of Liberal Democrat friends of cake! So I do

not think there is any move at all to that type of thing. Are you going

to take this opportunity to pledge your full support to Nick Clegg as

leader of the party? absolutely. He is our leader and has taken brave

decisions to go into coalition with the Conservatives at a time of

economic crisis, to put our head above the parapet when it came to

the European elections. Labour, missing in action, conservatives

hopelessly split papering over the cracks! We will come onto that.

Obviously, a disastrous performance for Labour in the local elections

given that the Conservatives are still in control in Tamworth. Ed

Miliband hunter that Walsall was a must win but still no overall

control. He did not get through in Worcester, Gloucester. It was a

disaster. Are we talking about the same local elections? We gained

three and 38 seats, the Conservatives lost 230. The Lib Dems

lost nearly 300 and UKIP vote went down in percentage terms. If you

look at how the results translate into the marginal areas, I could

give many examples. We are on track to win the next general election.

There is not much time left. The Ashcroft polls make a point that we

are on track. But what comes out of this election loud and clear is the

voice of discontent. And that was behind the UKIP vote. And we failed

to listen to that discontent. We fail to listen to that at our peril.

Look at the marginals, UKIP are apparently in a busy just Tories

picking up seats. This really transform the 2`party battles we

have seen. You have a problem... You asked foresees to UKIP? And yet all

this time we have been worried about health concern. as Richard Taylor

said, the biggest gain a UKIP vote has come from health concern. And

their vote share has dropped from over 35% two years ago, to below 20%

now. We of course, are not immune. It will be wrong of me to say we

have held up as well. See what went walkabout fruitcakes then? You are

more serious and respectful towards UKIP now? Is this a deathbed

conversion? Of Kosovo more respectful. For the simple reason

that 26% of people in Wyre Forest and across the country have said

they are fed up of the old`fashioned style of politics. This I think is a

fundamental point that we have to raise between the three others and

this surge in outside parties. Moving away from old`style politics

to include you as well. Look at the Greens who are really come on a

bundle in Solihull. You can see how may be idealistic Lib Dem voters

might find a happy home in the Green party and tainted by all those

horrible decisions that you're associated within governments. It is

true, we have had to mix a very tough decisions. We had a country on

the verge of economic crisis, we came together with the

Conservatives. We have now turned the economy around, it has been

tough. We have not enjoyed having to do a lot of the things we have had

to do. But our core Liberal Democrats have stuck with others and

fair play to them. How do you answer the general disillusion that all of

you acknowledge, that the electorate feels different with the established

political parties. Bearing in mind it is said the electorate is never

wrong. The majority of people feel that their lives are not getting

better. Their living standards are not improving. They look at the rich

and the powerful who they feel take advantage at their expense.

Crucially, what we have to do, is to convince people that we are

different and that we will make a difference in their lives on matters

that matter to them. World of work issues, energy bills, bedroom tax,

sorting out our housing problems, tackling, for example, soaring rents

in the private rented sector. That is what we are seeking to do,

because ultimately, we have two and I discontent with the view that says

we are different and we can make a difference in your lives. But

discontent certainly expresses itself in the sense that people

inevitably, including in Wyre Forest, will be worse off going into

the next general election than they were that I will be worse off going

into the next general election than they were the time of the last one.

At the question highlight a paradox. Liberal Democrats were the party of

protest up and saw the last election. And for one reason or

another, they became the party of Government. But where this is very

productive coal is that you vote against the traditional political

parties, but when they become successful, when they become a

traditional political party and parts of the Establishment, you need

to find another one to vote against. UKIP, if it is successful,

will or could possibly become a party of Government. If they then

deliver what they are promising to get out of Europe, then they will

then have two answer the question to all those people who were lost their

jobs as a result not been part of the single market. Then they will

have this emperor was the rest of the parties have. Dementia meant you

could potentially as a party of Government and this raises

inevitably the question: Would you entertain the idea of some kind of

packs? Or some kind of deal locally? Absolutely not. Under no

circumstances. All traditional parties should hold their head up

high and say we are the Conservatives, Lib Dems, whoever you

want to be. Going into dodgy deals all mergers to try and persuade the

electorate that actually, it is a kind of broad right or broad left I

think is being dishonest with the electorate. I will stand on the

Conservative manifesto and nobody else's. Thinking of the rise of the

Greens, one of the lessons is that the Lib Dems retained control in

Cheltenham and strengthen their position. They did not too bad in

Yardley to. But you have to reconnect with local communities in

a traditional manner. Meshed into local communities. we do. We

retained three out of four of our seats that we were defending. So,

you know, where we work we still win. The other one was a marginal

seats which we lost to the Conservatives. So the Greens, for

those ten councillors originally defected from the Lib Dems, so

obviously, they get their reputation for working hard in the local area.

Thank you very much indeed. And so to try's European results. Last time

out in 2009, the Conservatives topped the West Midlands poll with

two MEPs. Their third was added later thanks to the Lisbon Treaty.

UKIP were the runners`up with two seats. Labour and the Liberal

Democrats had just one each. This time, our region elects seven MEPs

to the new European Parliament. Voters on Thursday had no fewer than

11 different parties to choose from. We should know the results later

tonight. Sian joins us again, live this time, from the International

Convention Centre in Birmingham where the final declarations will

take place. So Sian, when does the fun start? Thanks Patrick. Yes,

counting is due to begin here at around six o'clock this evening

across three sepaprate halls in the ICC. It is fairly quiet now that it

will be a hive of activity later. This will be the centre to which all

the region's local authorities will send their results. The declarations

can't start until ten o'clock at the very earliest. That's when the polls

close in the rest of Europe. Joining me now is Jim Carver, the number two

candidate on UKIP's European list. 30 new councillors elected on

Thursday in the local elections ` what do you put that down to? I put

that down to the hard work of the West Midlands team. Right across the

region we have been working very very hard and campaigning, listening

to what people say. For some time now we have done this and it shows

how strong the UKIP message is. Not just across the West Midlands, but

across the UK. But you only won 30 out of 350 seats in the Midlands on

Thursday ` it wasn't really the predicted earthquake was it? If you

look where we are, we had 124 Second Place is as well. If you look where

we are now to where we were before the election, this is a great

footprints. If we were going to be challenged properly, we need to

build a strong local Government footprints. I am delighted that the

progress we are making is good. No representation at all in the big

city contests in Birmingham and Coventry. Why do you think you're

failing there? Very difficult, but we got some good second places. I am

actually delighted, the glass is half full. I'm delighted how far we

have progressed in Coventry and Birmingham. If you look at the other

metropolitan areas, we got our first seats in Walsall. Look at Dudley,

fantastic result. If you go further afield, up to Newcastle, again,

fantastic results. How professional is your party? Is it all about

UKIP's gift of the gab? There will always be the odd candidate to slip

through the net. But we're working very, very hard on this and I'm

convinced that the party has won so much more respect from the

electorate. Because, during this campaign, there have been of the

citrus and a UKIP campaign. And I think we have responded very

strongly to that. There are some worrying allegations this morning

against one of your councillors. One newly elected in Redditch. It is

alleged they made racist and homophobic comments on social media.

we distance ourselves a completely. Personally speaking, I am very angry

at how this situation arose. We do not have a monopoly on this. If we

look what has happened in the last fortnight there have been 14

separate cases of alleged sexist, racist and homophobic remarks made

by Conservatives, Lib Dems and Labour. If you look at the London

Borough of Newham, the Conservative party but as a generic leaflet

challenging why there were so many gay people and local governments.

Disgraceful! Should they be small became that of the party? as I said,

there will be a full investigation. Officers will be open on Monday

morning for us to look at it. I have no truck with any of those comments

and will be distancing myself from fully after thorough investigation.

Thank you Jim Carver. I spoke to the chief organiser earlier on, and she

seems to think we should have all seven declarations in by 10:30pm. I

will be done later on. Jim Carter exuding confidence there. It looks

like you Lib Dems are out. we will have to see. Quite a small margin.

Quite a small percentage margin will determine whether or not we get our

MEP, Phil Bennion, re`elected. So bets are off at the moment. We will

have two C. For the Conservatives of course, there is speculation in the

Sunday Times that a number of Tory backbenchers are trying to put

pressure on David Cameron to bring this referendum forward to 2016. So

you keep driving policy on Europe? I do not think so. I don't think

moving the election is addressing the point that the UK voters want. I

think if you are going to do something pretty seismic, you would

move it forward to next year and have it even this year may be. That

will not happen because of various reasons. We would not be able to get

a referendum through in parliaments, and so the earlier we can deliver as

the Conservative party is after a general election when we are the

biggest party, where we can then drive a referendum through

Parliament. I have to say Jack, Lorely's position is abundantly

clear on the referendum. But whenever I interview you and your

candidates on your position on the referendum, it ends up sounding like

the small print in a radio ad. It's not really a clear, clarion call is

it? I can position is correct. We are in the EU and the message for

the British electorate is clear: Were there to be any further

significant changes, there should be a referendum. But secondly, right

now, when we are trying to recover from the worst recession since the

1930s, the idea that you destabilise our country and our economy by

focusing on a referendum to get us out of Europe is crazy! The

automotive sector in this region, a world`class success story, key to

success is inward investment. Peter inward investment is membership of

the European Union. Letters drill down into what is likely to happen

this evening. At least, as far as the two big parties are concerned.

For the Conservatives, there is a clear line of thought that the poll

suggest you could finish third in the West Midlands which would be a

pretty shocking commentary on your party, the lead party Government?

Nada Stinger West Midlands, but across the UK. The is point that we

come back to the fundamental argument that there is a challenging

party against the political establishment, the political elites.

I have canvassed pro`Europeans who said they would vote UKIP because

they are fed up with the political machine. The interesting thing about

all of this is that if UKIP does win, what we lose out as a country

is a good bunch of MEPs who are prepared to engage in the debate and

absolutely fight our corner in Europe. This is bad for Britain. And

a similar question for you as the principal party of opposition in

this country going into a general election less than a year away, if

you fail to win the top share of vote here in the West Midlands and

the UK, that is a dreadful commentary on the main part of

opposition isn't it? Labour have not won a European election for 20

years, yet we have one in general elections. Conversely, you have to

go back to John Major to see a Conservative party that does not

come first in the European elections. So I think the results

are likely to be very bad for the Conservative party. I think that

UKIP are likely to do very well. I think we will do well, as well. But

there is no question of it: We saw it in the local elections and I

think that will seat in the European elections as well. This will be the

vehicle for a significant protest vote by those who are discontented.

On the referendum, John hemming earlier in the programme we also

heard him say he is a rebel on the referendum question. He wants one!

So is there not a case just to toughen up your position and prove

your all Euro enthusiasts? I do not think that is necessarily

appropriate. We have gone into legislation with the Conservatives

as part of the Government to guarantee, in law, that should there

be a further move towards any lowering of sovereignty, then we

would actually go and except a referendum. We must leave it there.

Thank you all. Packet to Mark, Lorely and gym. And our special

"Vote 2014" European Election results programme begins at nine

o'clock tonight on the BBC News Channel, then moving

deported. We should also review the benefits system to make it

contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.

Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,

as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even

worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,

former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.

Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change

what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the

poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this

sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are

calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my

political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we

need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the

summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive

leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices

are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question

is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to

take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party

forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend

Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It

could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue

the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in

scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent

to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like

cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling

for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens

from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it

seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including

sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would

like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been

doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the

polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you

will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut

through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking

about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me

take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in

every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or

two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of

them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to

change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election

we not only re-established our position from a base of almost

nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in

1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and

insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we

should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of

that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll

ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum

of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best

part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple

of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a

long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into

government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%

support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding

judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being

attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and

he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has

done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are

in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is

one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context

of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he

can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local

elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on

track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for

us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as

bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general

election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in

government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell

about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country

out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the

Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and

fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the

context of a general election will be far greater than you are

suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,

that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed

Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long

time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the

same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a

breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet

wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the

Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken

seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken

up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have

taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around

them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating

people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the

fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern

Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did

not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage

regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those

Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party

will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the

south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony

Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they

did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle

-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%

in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.

There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did

not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we

should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he

would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the

results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty

well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in

the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes

from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done

well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on

Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a

disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the

main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a

majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break

the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that

they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116

or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in

the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating

finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be

putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is

the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are

nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a

majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous

increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,

which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.

David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you

know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the

bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.

Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch

into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a

meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was

to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and

very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband

business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because

the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big

concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find

pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you

reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You

can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a

different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,

it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron

pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking

at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you

are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some

abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast

person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers

from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been

guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is

what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15

points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich

would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.

That is all this week, you can get those European election results with

David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,

and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back

in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.

This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.

What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain