30/04/2017 Sunday Politics West Midlands

It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,

but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto

promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.

The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously

agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but

And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's

And in the Midlands: to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne

We boldly go where no Sunday Politics has gone before.

Who'll be the rising stars of this week's elections?

They hit an all-time low after coalition government,

but are the Lib Dems poised to bounce back,

And with me to analyse the week's politics,

Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards, Tom Newton-Dunn.

They'll be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.

So when Theresa May was interviewed just over an hour ago

on The Andrew Marr Show, the Prime Minister was asked

to confirm that she would repeat David Cameron's 2015 election

promise not to raise VAT, national insurance and income tax

We have absolutely no plans to increase the level of tax,

but I'm also very clear that I don't want to make specific proposals

on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure that I can deliver on those.

But it is, would be my intention as a Conservative Government

and a Conservative Prime Minister, to reduce the taxes

The Tories like to have a clear tax message in elections, are they

getting into a bit of a mess? That method wasn't clear, but does it

mean, saying they have no plans to increase the level of tax? We are

clear there will not be a rise in VAT, a lot of commentators will get

overexcited about that, but there was no great expectations there

would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as it is, because even one percentage

point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for the exchequer so it is tempting but

there has been no speculation that would happen. We can see that she

clearly wants to reiterate the language about hard-working families

but I don't think we are that much the wiser. Even if she does not put

up rates, according to projections the overall tax burden, as a

percentage of GDP, is rising, will rise in the years ahead. That is why

it was an odd phrase, I know she is doing it to be evasive but to say

they have no plans to raise the general level of taxation, they do

have. We also know they have specific plans because it was in the

last budget, they had a tax rise which they had to revise, National

Insurance rises, so very wisely in my view they are keeping options

open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate was a fantasy world, totally

unrelated to the demands that would follow. They now have the

flexibility, one of the arguments you had heard last time was Philip

Hammond saying to her, we have to break away from the 2015 manifesto

commitment and we can only do it this way, that is one of the better

arguments. The Tories like to talk about tax cuts in elections, whether

they do it is another matter, but they are not being allowed to talk

about tax cuts, they are now on the defensive over whether they will

raise taxes. That is not a healthy position for the campaign to be in.

If you look at the numbers, quite frankly, if you will not do this at

this election with eight 20 point lead over Labour, then when will you

take these tough decisions? Reading between the lines of what Theresa

May has said all over different broadcasters this morning, income

tax will go down for low-income families, such as the threshold rise

that microbes that was already factored in. She has had to commit

to it again. VAT will be fat, national insurance contributions

will go up. Do you think they will go up? I think so, she had plenty of

opportunity to rule it out and she didn't. There was a terrible mess

with the budget, it is a good tax argument but not a good electoral

argument that you are eroding the base so heavily with people moving

into self-employment that as you raise national insurance

contributions for everybody but the self-employed, it is something the

Treasury will have to look at. The other triple lock on pensions, we

don't know if they will keep to that either? If they are sensible they

will find a form of words to give them flexibility in that area as

well. I would say there is no question over that, that has gone.

As Mrs May would say, you will have to wait for the manifesto. That is

what all the party leaders tell me! Labour have spent the weekend

pushing their messages Speaking at a camapign rally

in London yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour

government would fix what he called People are fed up, fed up with not

being able to get somewhere to live, fed up waiting for hospital

appointments, fed up with 0-hours contracts, fed up with low pay, fed

up with debt, fed up with not being able to get on in their lives

because we have a system that is rigged against so many.

I've been joined from Newcastle by Labour's elections

and campaigns co-ordinator, Ian Lavery.

Good morning. To deal with this rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls

it, the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has a 20 point plan for

workers out today. When you add up everything he plans to do to help

workers, how much will it cost? The full costings, one thing I need to

say at the very beginning, the costings of any policy which we have

already ruled out and any policy we will be ruling out in the next few

days and weeks will be fully costed in the manifesto and in addition to

the fact that it will be fully costed, we will see it in the

manifesto how indeed it has been funded, so we are very clear,

anything we have seen already, and there are some exciting policy

releases and there will be more in the future, anything we are going to

do will be fully costed and in the manifesto. You announced a 20 point

plan but cannot tell me what the costs will be this morning so at the

moment it is a menu without prices? It is not a menu without prices, it

is a fantastic opportunity. This 20 point plan is something which will

transform the lives of millions of millions of people in the

workplace... But what is the cost? It will be welcomed by many people

across the UK. The fact the costings have not been released, you will

have to be patient, it will be released very clearly, it will

identify that in the manifesto. Let me come down to one of the points,

the end of the public sector pay freeze. Can you give us any idea how

much that will cost? The end of the public sector pay freeze, so

important to the future of the Labour Party, it is an massive

policy decision. Let me say at this stage, Theresa May, the Prime

Minister, this morning, on The Andrew Marr Show, did not have the

common decency, courtesy all respect to condone the fact that nurses, the

heroes of the NHS, have had a reduction of nearly 14% in their

wages since 2010 and are using food banks to feed themselves! Does that

not say everything that is wrong with today's society? So can you

tell me what it will cost, which is what my question was? What I will

say is everything the Labour Party pledges, everything that we come out

with, what we will roll out between now and the 8th of June, will be

fully costed, people will be very much aware of how much the costings

will be, where the funding will come from, when the manifesto is

published. What about doubling paternity leave, nu minimum wage,

four new bank holidays, any idea what it will

cost? These are exciting new proposals and of course today cost

money but we are the sixth richest economy in the world. It is about

redistribution of the wealth we create. We are seeing growth in the

economy, it is how we utilise the finances in the best way we possibly

can for a fairer society for the many and not the few. You just can't

tell me how much it will cost? That is why I will repeat again that you

need to be very patient. Do you know the cost yourself? You are the head

of the campaign, do you know the cost of these things yourself? I am

very much aware of how much the costings are likely to be, they have

been identified, they will be published in the manifesto. You

really do understand I would not be releasing today, live on your show,

any costings or predictions with regards the manifesto. Why not? You

have released the policy, why not the cost? Because there is a fine

detail and we will identify it to the general public in the manifesto.

We not only explain how much it will cost but we will explain where the

funding comes from. Be patient. Will some of the costs be met by

increasing taxes? I would think at this point in time there is not any

indication to increase basic taxes and again the taxes and spending of

the Labour Government with the proposals of the 20 point plan, the

issues we have got, housing, the NHS, crime, education will all be

identified with the costings in the publication. Can you tell us this

morning, we'll tax for most people rise or not to finance this? We in

the Labour Party are looking to a fair tax system which will be

clearly identified in the manifesto. Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all

0-hours contracts. Would that include those who actually like

those contracts? There are nearly 1 million, depending on which figured

you'd use, there are nearly 1 million people on zero-hours

contract and the vast proportion of those want to be able to live a

decent life, a secure life, they want to understand whether they will

be at work the next day, they're included hours... I understand a lot

of people don't like zero-hours contract and your proposal will

address that, but there are those, I saw one survey where 65% of people

on zero-hours contract like the flexibility it gives them. Will you

force them off zero-hours contract or if they like them will they

continue with them? We will discuss it with employee is to make sure

individuals in the workplace have the right to negotiate hours in that

workplace. Guaranteed hours is very, very important. Zero-hour contracts

are an instrument in which employers abuse and exploit mainly young

people, mainly female people in the workplace. We would be banning

zero-hour contract. But there are those, students for example, who

like them, would they be forced off zero-hour contracts in your

proposal? Our proposal would be banning zero-hour contract and

introducing contracts which have set hours in the workplace. You also say

no company will be able to bid for a public contract unless the boss

earns no more than 20 times the lowest paid, or the average wage,

I'm not quite sure which. What would happen if British Aerospace bids to

build more joint strike Fighters and the boss is paid more than 20 times?

I understand the point you raise but we have an obscene situation in this

country, Andrew, in which the bosses at the very top make an absolute

fortune... But what would happen then? Who would build joint strike

Fighters... The difference in wages between the top earners in the

country and the people in the factories, in the workshops,

producing the goods, is vast. I understand that is the reason you

want a ratio. What I am saying is, what happens if the ratio is

greater? Who gets the contract if not British Aerospace? Who else

builds the planes? We are going to introduce a wage rate CEO of one to

20. -- wage ratio. We want to close the gap between the people at the

very top and people who produce the goods. Let me try one more Time, who

would build the joint strike fighter? We would look at the issue

as it came along but the policy is clear... Can you name a single

defence contractor weather boss' salary is less than 20 times average

earnings? We are not reducing, we have rolled that out as part of this

fantastic plan to transform society to get rid of discrimination, to try

and bring together our communities. We will introduce a pay ratio of one

to 20. Fair enough, thank you very much.

It's a month after the triggering of Article 50, and EU leaders -

with the exception of Britain - met in Brussels this weekend

to agree their opening negotiating stance, to get the divorce

It is inside this psychedelic chamber where Britain's 'Grexit'

future will be decided over the next two years, but there is a vast gulf

in rhetoric coming from the UK and the EU. With parallel narratives

emerging for both sides. There is broad agreement that an orderly

withdrawal is in the interests of both sides. But Theresa May's

position is that the terms of our future trade deal should be

negotiated alongside the terms of our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says

the terms of the UK's exit must be decided before any discussion on a

future trade deal can begin. But don't forget that divorce

settlement. Don't remind me. In Brussels, many think written should

pay even more, while in the UK ministers said the divorce bill

should be capped at 3 billion. After you. Thank you.

For are you looking forward to it? Isn't that divorce bill a bit high?

Isn't this about punishing Britain? We are very united, you all seem so

surprised but it's a fact. How soon can we get a deal? We have to wait

for the elections. It was the decision of Mrs May. It took over an

hour for the leaders to make their entrances but once inside it's just

a few minutes to agree the negotiating guidelines. They set out

three main areas. The first phase of talks on the divorce settlement will

deal with the existing financial commitments to the EU, the Northern

Ireland border and the rights of EU citizens in the UK. They said a UK

trade agreement can be discussed when the first phase of talks

reaches significant progress. And that there must be unity in the

negotiations, that individual EU members won't negotiate separately

with the UK. They are quite good here at negotiating because they are

used to it. They set a maximum and then they have to recede a little

bit depending on what the other side is prepared to offer. I think there

is room for manoeuvre in some issues, but I don't think some of

the baseline things will change that much. For example I don't think the

European Union will concede on the rights of citizens who are already

in the UK. It will be very difficult for them to accept that they will

not be any exit bill, and the question of Northern Ireland is very

important as well, the hard order question. The baseline things are

not going to move that much, then you have room for manoeuvring

between. On security, defence and the fight against terrorism, the

guidelines said the EU stands ready to work together. And after lunch,

friendly signs from some EU leaders as they gave individual press

conferences. Paul and said the talks should open doors to new

opportunities and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had

earlier said some in Britain were deluded about Brexit, softened her

tone saying there was no conspiracy against the UK. Unity was the

buzzword at this summit and for once everybody seemed to be sticking to

the script. That unity is not only amongst the 27 states, it's also

among the institutions so many of the divisions we have seen in the

past at European level do not exist. That is very important and it's not

be unity that is directed somehow against the UK because I think we

all want this to be an orderly process and part of that is that the

EU side is unified. So although there are no surprises here, what

took place in this room was a significant step towards the real

Brexit negotiations which will begin soon after the general election in

June, said to be the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes.

Isabel, Steve and Tom are still with me.

Isabel, doesn't the British media have to be a bit careful here? We

would never take at face value anything a British politician tells

us. We would question it, put it in context and wonder if they are

bluffing, but we seem to take at face value anything a European

politician says about these negotiations. You only have to look

at the front page of the Sunday Times today to see that. They quoted

at length Juncker, who didn't like the food at the reception and this

and that, and I think the mood is very optimistic. The key thing is

the EU trade Commissioner has said we will get a free trade deal and a

lot of people seem to be wilfully ignoring that incredibly big

concession. That is what will happen in their view. Everything that is

said at the moment needs a slight rerun over. They are all in

negotiating positions, plus we seem to be completely unaware that they

all have their own domestic constituencies as well. Angela

Merkel has an important election coming up in September,

Euroscepticism is quite different from Britain of course, but there's

a different kind of euro scepticism in Germany, she has got to deal with

that. Of course she has, which is why you are right, nothing should be

taken too seriously out of the mouths of British politicians or

European politicians until October this year. We have got to wait for

the French elections, then German elections, and if you look through

this you can see a way forward. There's no trade talks until pay up,

but what was actually written was no trade talks until we make

significant progress on the money. You can define significant progress

in a lot of ways but come December, fireworks over the summer, we all

get very excited about it, in these chairs I'm sure, come December

things will look a lot smoother. The German elections are at the end of

September but I've seen reports in German press, depending how it goes

it could take until Christmas before a new coalition government is put

together. The Brussels long-standing negotiating tactic of nothing is

agreed until everything is agreed, then I guess the British could say

we agree a certain sum of money if that's what it takes but that

depends on them, what good trade deal we get. If we don't get that,

the sum of money is off the table. In that sense, the two are going

parallel. However, I wouldn't entirely dismiss what people are

saying in their pre-election periods to their own electorates because

they have to some extent to deliver subsequently. Of course Angela

Merkel is campaigning and electioneering, who wouldn't, she

has a tough election to fight, but she is measured and thoughtful and

when she says things like some of the British are delusional, that is

unusually strong language for her. What was she referring to? I don't

know, it wasn't specific. Have the cake and eat it perhaps the

sequencing the British don't want. When they thought the British

government was going to effectively demand membership of the single

market, that's not going to happen now. Unless you sign up to the four

pillars, that's the cake and eat it proposition, which they are right in

saying Theresa May has made. But everybody has access, even with no

deal you have access. The other side of it is I think there will be a

united position from them. And so, as somebody pointed out in that

report, they are experienced, tough negotiators, so I don't think it

will be quite as easy as some think. I spoke to one of those who drew up

Article 50 and they said to me they deliberately put this two year

timetable in to make it impossible for anybody to think about leaving.

This is really tight, this negotiation. Easy, it isn't.

This coming Thursday, voters up and down the country

will be going to the polls in this year's local elections.

Over the past few weeks I've interviewed representatives

of the Conservative Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,

Today it's the turn of Plaid Cymru and the SNP.

A little earlier I spoke Alex Salmond, who until 2014

I started by asking him why Scots should vote SNP in local elections

when the Scottish Government had just cut central Government funding

It's actually a funding increase going into Scottish councils this

year, and if you look at the funding position for example between

Scottish councils and those in England, which are obviously

directly related through the Barnett formula, the funding in Scotland has

been incomparably better than that in England so there's a whole range

of the -- of reasons... What's happening south of the border

indicates the protection the Scottish Parliament has been able to

put in that helps vital services in Scotland. But there hasn't been a

funding increase, the block grant from Westminster to Edinburgh was

increased by 1.5% in real terms but the grant to councils was cut by

2.6%. It was going to be a cut of 330 million, the Greens got you to

reduce it to 170 million but it is still a cut of 2.6%. Your own

Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut to 391 million. You have cut the

money to councils. Yes, but councils have available to them more

resources this year, and as you say the budget increased that further

which is why we put forward an excellent local government budget in

Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off...

You asked me about Aberdeenshire, and Aberdeenshire has put forward a

budget for investment expansion and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3

million off the education budget, and I'm very grateful you have given

me the opportunity to make that point. The Government in Edinburgh

has cut the money to Aberdeenshire by ?11 million. It is a cut. But

there is an investment budget in Aberdeenshire that has been made

available by the ability to increase the council tax by 2.5% after a

nine-year freeze in Scotland, and that has brought more resources into

local government and that's why the butchered in Aberdeenshire has been

an investment budget including protection of the education budget

in the face of a Tory and liberal attempt to cut bit. You have to

compare what is happening in Scotland and England, and there's no

doubt Scottish local authorities have been much better funded than

those in England over the last few years and that's been the ability of

the Scottish Government to protect the services at local level. A good

reason for voting SNP. If they have been so well funded, why after a

decade of SNP rule do one in five Scottish pupils leave primary school

functionally illiterate? You have got to take these things... Nicola

Sturgeon has made it a top priority to address these challenges but

let's take another statistic. 93% of Scottish kids are now emerging from

school to positive destinations, that means to further education,

apprenticeships or work. Why are one in five functionally illiterate? You

argue one statistic, I'm arguing Scottish education is putting in

some substantially good performances like the 93% going on to positive

destinations. You can't have a failing education system if you have

got that 93%, and incidentally a record low youth unemployment in

Scotland without the second lowest unemployment rate in Europe. These

pupils are being prepared by the Scottish education system. Let's

take the figures in the round on education. It's so important. Under

your watch, under your government, the Scottish schools in the most

important global comparison have fallen from tenth to 19th in

science, and 11 to 24th in maths, that is a record of decline and

failure. That is by the OECD and first questions about that, but the

OECD has also described Scotland is one of the best educated societies

in the world. That was from the school system in previous years gone

by. For those who are currently in Scottish schools, you have fallen

from 11th to 24th in mathematics. The OECD was commenting on

introduction of the new curriculum for excellence in which they have

given a resounding thumbs up to it, and that's the same source as the

rankings which you are comparing. Nicola Sturgeon has said there are

challenges on Scottish education, particularly the access through the

education system and the attainment gap but don't tell me it's failing

when 55% of our pupils have gone on to higher education. That's one of

the most impressive figures in the world. Why have you cut 4000

teachers? The pupil numbers in Scotland have been falling over

recent years as well and now of course we are increasing the number

of people going through teachers training so we can make sure that

number increases, but listen, the Scottish Government and Scottish

Parliament, as you very well know, are subject to real terms spending

cuts over the last few years and all public services have been under

pressure. The main reason in terms of teacher numbers has been an

attempt on the Scottish Government to protect the teacher pupil ratio,

and that will now be enhanced by a further taker -- intake. You

promised you would reduce primary class sizes to 18 and instead they

are now 23.5 and rising. You broke that promise. You didn't mention

where we started from. We have kept the teacher pupil ratio very solid

in Scotland and that's been against a range of public expenditure cuts

but the new intake of teachers into the new teacher training in Scotland

I think will enhance the system. You have spent in the pasty in

Hollywood 43 hours on Government time debating independence. How many

hours have you debated education on Government time? I don't have that

they get a hand... The answer is zero, you have spent zero-hours

debating education on Government time. Isn't it time the SNP got back

to concentrating on the day job? Andrew, as you very well know Nicola

Sturgeon has identified a key priority, closing the attainment gap

in Scottish education. That is exactly what she has done. Let me

answer the question, it is difficult to be in a remote location, if you

talk before I answer the question then the view was will not be able

to listen. I let you answer that without saying a word. Is this

general election about independence, as you say it is, or not about

independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says it is? No, I have said exactly the

same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The issue what independence will be

decided in a national referendum of the Scottish people. The mandate for

that referendum was gained in last year's Scottish elections. What this

election is about is backing the right of the Scottish parliament to

exercise that mandate and also providing real opposition to this

Tory Government and allowing the Scottish Parliament to reverse

austerity and some of the public expenditure cutbacks you have been

talking about, that is what this is about, backing our Scottish

Parliament. Alex Salmond, speaking

to me earlier. I'm now joined by the leader

of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. You accuse the Government of wanting

an extreme Brexit, those are your words. What is the difference

between hard Brexit and extreme Brexit? My concern is the way in

which we leave the European Union could be very damaging to Wales if,

for example, there are tariffs introduced then that would have a

real impact in terms of Welsh jobs, and I want to make sure that we have

a Brexit that doesn't cause the damage to Wales that could be

caused. But what is the difference between extreme and hard? Anything

that puts Welsh jobs at risk is either extreme or hard and

unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we will do what we can to protect those

jobs. You want Wales to remain a member of the single market even if

the UK isn't, which would mean Wales having to accept the free movement

of people, still being under the jurisdiction of the European Court,

and you also want to stay in the customs union which means you could

not do your own free trade deals. What is the difference between that

and being a member of the European Union? We would be like Norway,

outside the European Union and inside the single market. The key

question is the issue of jobs and the ability to continue to trade.

Wales exports, we are the biggest exporter in the whole of the UK, so

there are many jobs reliant upon those goods being able to be sold to

the single market. Is it central to the UK? Out of the four countries

that make up the UK... Proportionally, yes. If you remain

in the single market, it is hard to see how Wales could stay in the

single market if the UK -- when the rest of the UK was not, you cite

Norway, that has free movement, it has to be said, it effectively have

to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court, it is not in the

customs union so it can do some of its own free trade deals, but the

Welsh people voted to leave. We have to accept the principle of free

movement if there is not going to be a hard border between the north and

south of Ireland. There is going to be free movement within Ireland and

therefore freedom of movement, as we said in the referendum campaign,

would be very, very difficult to rule out. You lost that campaign, as

you know, Wales voted to leave, 17 Council areas voted to leave, only

five voted to remain. Doesn't it explain why your party is going

nowhere? A majority in Wales voted to leave but you effectively want to

support that and de facto remain in the EU? I don't accept that, we

accepted the result but Plaid Cymru now is about defending Wales. There

are so many risks facing our people from the jobs perspective, the

privatisation perspective, the cuts perspective, and from the fact that

the Tories would like to grab power was back from our National Assembly,

so the key point... If you look at the Wales bill that went through

recently, the list of reserved powers there suggests there are some

powers currently within the Welsh Assembly jurisdiction that would be

dragged back. Which power was will Westminster take back? They could

take powers back over the NHS, for example. There is no indication they

want to do that. The Tories have attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my

point! Quite viciously. If they increase their mandate, I wouldn't

put it past them to try to take power was back over the NHS and then

of course we risk our NHS being privatised though this election is

all about defending Wales, protecting Welsh people from further

privatisation and cuts and a power grab from the Tories. Why is there

never a breakthrough for your party, Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in

Wales for years, the Tories do quite well, Ukip had a surge for a while,

it looks like the Tories will have another surge, never you, always the

bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait until Thursday and I think you will

see that in many parts of Wales we will increase our representation at

a local council level. In the Rhondda, where I am assembly member,

we are looking to increase our representation... You are only 13%

in the polls will stop which is half of even the Tories in Wales! If you

don't breakthrough in the selection, if the real problem is going

nowhere, do you think you will pack it in? Robert Green not, I have a

job to do, a vision of Wales which is about building up our nation and

standing on our own two feet and my job is not done yet. Thank you for

being with us as part of your job, we will see how it goes on Thursday.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

Welcome to the Sunday Politics in the Midlands.

Who'll be the rising stars of this week's elections

for county councillors, and a metro mayor?

And who's going to crash and burn, without trace?

Our heavenly bodies here with us today,

Pat McFadden, Labour MP for Wolverhampton South East,

was a Business Minister under Gordon Brown,

and Mark Garnier, Conservative MP for Wyre Forest,

is an International Trade Minister under Theresa May.

First up, the contest for Metro Mayor, with polling

on Thursday, to decide who'll lead the new Combined Authority

responsible for three million people in Coventry, Birmingham

The Communist candidate became the last of the six contenders

He's promising to nationalise the M6 toll

and introduce a living wage of ?10 an hour.

He also has big plans for public transport.

Public ownership of buses with massive investment

in infrastructure with the aim of lowering the cost

Cheap fares, regular buses, these are policies

that are needed to really turn things round.

And they're socialist policies, you know.

A communist is a socialist who really means what he says.

Graham Stevenson with our thought for the day.

And you can find more details on all six candidates

on the politics pages of the BBC News website.

Graham Stevenson thinks and that your candidate and others to come up

are obsessed with the M6 toll road when people are more interested in

regular bus services and cheap fares. He has a point, hasn't he? I

just hope that there is interest in this West Midlands mayoral election.

Before the general election was Before the general election was

called, I was knocking doors in my constituency in Wolverhampton to fit

see what people thought of it and how engage they were with it, and

sadly my conclusion was that this contest had so far failed to capture

the imagination of the public in the West Midlands. I think that is a

shame. I am not against strong mayors. A look at what has happened

in London and you can see the profile of the mayor there and what

it has done for the city, and I do not want all the power to be

concern about this contest on concern about this contest on

Thursday, of course I want the Labour conduct candidate to win, but

I am concerned how much the tenant is going to be. If he is correct,

that is despite your candidate acknowledging that he spent

something like ?1 million raised and spent before the spending limits

came in at the end of March, leading James Byrne, the Green candidates,

to say we need tougher limits on spending. Has always been a great

argument about how much political parties can spend on political

campaigns. The long campaign and a short campaign. The other argument

is where they get that money from, and you will have noticed in your

time in Westminster that there is an endless battle of big business

backing the Conservatives were as trade unionists back Labour. At the

end of the day, you cannot get away end of the day, you cannot get away

from the fact that if people are backing parties, that is another

form of democracy where people are committing to those parties through

donations are not from the big large donations are not from the big large

amounts of money, smaller mats come from many different people and that

is eight good thing. Is it not very telling that both of your candidates

are distancing themselves from the are distancing themselves from the

party leaders? Shone Simon is not going out of his way to emphasise

Jeremy Corbyn and the same with the Tories. I think were you have to

volt power, that is going to happen. I think in our traditional way of

thinking about politics, we think of these parties as monolith but there

has not been devolution of one side or another in the country for some

time. I think it follows from the time. I think it follows from the

devolving power system that there are different identities in

different parts of the country. Shone Simon and Andy Street Art both

on 43 or 45%. Neither will get to on 43 or 45%. Neither will get to

the first round so it is second preferences. I will say this, but

people like the UK and Lib Dems will go for Andy Street that will get

across. We will see and as we said, there are six

This week's polling will go a long way towards establishing

the mood music, going forward to the main event,

This will be a general election like no other.

Crunching the numbers from the poll ratings into our familiar

catalogue of marginal seats is just the start this time.

For the big picture, Ben Godfrey tells us

you must also factor in, that "Brexit Effect."

The PM made has made it clear in the last week

that Brexit will be front and centre of her general election campaign.

in those important Brexit negotiations.

The West Midlands region voted 59% to 41% in favour of Brexit.

But in areas of the Black Country, like Princes End,

and there's little evidence of buyer's remorse here.

In this sort of area, people see a lot of

immigration coming into this sort of area and it's such as the housing

It seems to be going to foreigners, not British people.

The Potteries also voted overwhelmingly to leave.

But despite supporting remain, Labour saw off the Ukip challenge

in the Stoke Central by-election in February.

The party has now also pledged to end free movement.

Of course we recognise and accept that

immigration rules are going to have to change when we leave the EU.

Let me say that again, we accept that immigration rules

are going to have to change when we leave the EU.

So is this election going to be just about Brexit?

In the Labour-held marginal of Newcastle-under-Lyme

I know a lot of people who I know and we talked to

but there's a lot more involved, isn't there?

Theresa May's pitch in traditional Labour areas

of the Midlands which voted Brexit is a bold one.

The question is will voters be in the mood to buy it

And Jeremy Corbyn is campaigning in Telford as we speak.

We're also joined here today by the former Solihull MP

Her Liberal Democrat Party hope to sustain their Brexit bounce

into these elections - anti-Brexit more like -

and to corner the market among the remaining Remainers.

And in which floated as heavily as it did to leave the European Union,

you would have to say that is a risky strategy. I don't think so.

What we have got is a situation where the Conservatives, who we know

are strong and are going to do well, but there is no opposition from the

Labour Party certainly. We are the party of opposition. 40% of people

vote in the West Midlands and voters remain. They are aghast at the

situation where without a single shot being fired, Theresa May has

said we are going to leave the single market. I know the polls

are... Well, we have seen what we have seen in the past couple of

years or so, but 11% is not exactly a bounce. That is your rating so far

so it implies you have to concentrate your support in places

like Cheltenham and Yardley. Have you considered renouncing your

periods to fight again? No thanks! I do not think I have another general

election in me. We also need to realise that Brexit is not the only

thing that will determine this election. Look at the state of the

NHS at the moment and social care. It is quite shameful. Look at our

schools and all be cuts that are going on. People are really worried

about that and even people who voted to leave haven't necessarily realise

that a hard Brexit where we've even the single market which will be

economically disastrous for this country and for jobs was the

direction we were going is all we are saying is that people should

have a say on the actual deal. How much credence should be attached to

this so-called progressive alliance in our part of the country among

like-minded parties like yourselves and the Greens on Brexit and other

issues? Well, there are areas where we are looking to work together and

I think that's right. A packed? Above my pay grade, that one, I'm

afraid to say. I cannot comment on that. There will be, because the

Conservatives are going to be so strong, the opposition parties are

going to have to work together to try and get some sort of opposition

actually enforced. Mark, if she is right and this election is not just

about Brexit even if Theresa May would prefer it was, there are other

issues particularly health and the highly marginal seat of Cheltenham

given the tug-of-war over hospitals. I think that is right. As a member

of Parliament where we had a extraordinary result in Tasman one,

I would always maintain that you cannot assume these elections are a

foregone conclusion. You cannot assume that there is just one

argument to be had, but I do think that this time around, there is a

much bigger narrative going on. It is about two things, it is about

Brexit but also about the leadership of the parties. You will inevitably

come back to this question of can the next Government to be a strong

and secure Government or is it going to be a different Government, a

coalition Government which will not necessarily work exclusively in the

national interest? That'll be the key question. Isn't the lesson of

that report by Ben Godfrey that in places like the Black Country and

Stoke-on-Trent, attitudes on Brexit are hardening and Labour is at risk

of seeing the Conservatives trying Brexit sympathising voters away from

get given that the Conservatives say get given that the Conservatives say

they are the party of Brexit and the Liberal Democrats could attract the

party? I do not see that happening party? I do not see that happening

in places like Wolverhampton or the Black Country, but let me just say

that there is a big Brexit factor in this election but it is not the one

the Prime Minister as advanced as a reason for calling it. She said she

called the election because somehow called the election because somehow

she was having trouble getting Brexit through Parliament, couldn't

govern properly on Brexit. The Article 50 bill which triggered the

negotiations went to buy a majority of 494 to 122, a majority of 372

votes. The truth is that this election isn't taking place because

the Prime Minister has trouble getting Brexit through Parliament,

it is taking place because she is it is taking place because she is

trying to cash in on a huge opinion poll lead for the Conservatives and

before the reality of how tough the Brexit negotiations are becomes

clear. That suggests, and you mentioned the ratings, that places

like Dudley South and Stourbridge like Dudley South and Stourbridge

which have been Labour seats in the house and that he will need back to

form a Government, you are 1 million miles away from them according to

the polls. I am realistic about this election. I have been involved in

politics for a long time. I cannot remember a situation where an

opposition party goes into an election so far behind and really,

this election is not about the national interest, it is about the

interests of the Conservative Party. Quick response to that. I don't

think it is. Theresa May is going to establish her own mandate. Gordon

Brown bottled it into dozens seven. Brown bottled it into dozens seven.

I think the important thing is that it is not about Article 50 but the

Great Repeal Bill. That is a corrosive the complex bill coming

through. We need a really strong parliament to work on that. That

offer the moment. It's not just the Metro Mayor that

will be decided on Thursday. There'll also be elections

to determine the future of the five councils in our shire counties,

at least for the next four years. Polling will be in Warwickshire,

Worcestershire, Gloucestershire, Shropshire and Staffordshire,

where Emma Thomas found voters in this marginal county have a habit

of predicting general elections too. MUSIC: Also Sprach Zarathustra

by Richard Strauss A gateway from Staffordshire

to the Galaxy beyond. Keele University's Observatory

telescope has the power to see billions of light years

away from the earth. But with a snap general

election looming on the 8th of June, political scientists would

benefit from a glimpse But perhaps we don't need to gaze

to the stars for a forecast. The result of the

Staffordshire County Council election could be an insight into

the result of the general election. The local voting patterns to tend

to map onto the concerns of voters People are often willing

to give the Government a kicking in a local election

but not quite so willing when it comes to

a national election. This will be interesting,

because they are so close together that it isn't just

a symbolic protest vote. The Conservatives currently hold

power at County Hall. 62 - the number of

seats up for grabs. 34 - the number held

by the controlling party, Three - if the Tories

lose three seats, And this is the man hoping

to retain his seat as council leader as he celebrates 30 years

in office this May. The economy is booming

in Staffordshire, Everybody's got the chance to get

into a decent job and unemployment is really low

because of the effort we've done. Labour held Staffordshire

for 28 years until 2009, but can they win votes locally

when the national party We're going to make sure that

people get the skills needed to get into reasonable jobs

with good levels of pay We're looking at making sure

that older people and 48 Green party candidates

are standing on Thursday. It's about local issues

and local concerns It's a young political

party compared to the other parties, but more people

are saying they want an alternative vote and

they want people who are actually going to work

for them and listen to them. UK also has a solitary

county councillor. We want senior citizens

to be looked after. When the ballot papers

are counted on Friday, the eyes of the nation,

if not the universe, will be on results in places

like Staffordshire. And a number of independent

candidates are also standing So will the self-professed

Creative County yet again be If these county elections are

pointers, it is a difficult message because millions upon millions upon

millions of pounds have been taken out of county council budget over

the period when the Government has been led by your party. That is an

uncomfortable message in those knocks Brexit campaigning issues

about public services which have been squeezed hard. The other side

of the argument is that if you put in a city like Birmingham, before

the money was taken away it was still running a deficit so you want

something that illustrates just how important competent management is,

that gives the example. It is going to be about who can run these

services most effectively using the tax payers' money to go before that

it possibly can and that is why it became such an important point of

view. But we have heard readers very uncomfortable with some of the

measure brought in to save money. I have also seen a male counting that

with very good county leaders who recognise that you shouldn't... If

we have to money on libraries, you do not say that you're going to cut

have the money of libraries, you ask out to provide the same service with

half the money. I am struck that Emma Thomas there are quoted some

numbers. I can quote numbers. 32 candidates will be filtered by the

Liberal Democrats concurred with 48 by the Greens, 40 by Ukip. Like you

have no councillors on Staffordshire Council at the moment you are

starting from the lowest possible place with very few troops on the

ground to rally round your campaign. The only way is up for the Liberal

Democrats. You are talking about the figures and that number of three, if

we take three seats from the Conservatives, that will change the

game completely. People did vote some of their Liberal Democrat

councillors out. I think they are probably regretting that decision

now because when you talk about local politics and people on the

ground, there is nobody more grassroots really down the Lib Dems

to get stuck in to those bread and butter issues which are the ones

people really care about. Particularly the Staffordshire in

mind, would you be crunching the numbers in places like Burton,

Tamworth, Staffordshire merlins, those places where Labour MPs have

been in the past but are no longer. It has been really tough councillors

in local Government in recent years. The grant from central Government

has been cut hugely in places like Wolverhampton and the council has

had to make an awful lot of cuts that have hit the local services.

The council leader has been saying that he's been able to make it with

things much lower... It has been really painful. The results on

Thursday, people will see if there any straws in the wind, see if there

is an indication. People always do that with local elections and I

think, to come back to what I was seeing a little while ago, the

realistic choice the general election is are we going to have a

strong and credible opposition or are we going to have a complete

blank check for the Conservatives to do what they want with a bigger

majority not only on Brexit but on the health service, on public

services and done everything else? I don't think that's good for the

country. That is what Pat are suggesting. We need better

efficiency in terms of spending patterns taxpayer's money. We need

to not waste public money elsewhere. Will... There is a danger that local

county councils and in deed district and local issues get squeezed out in

elections is even more so now when there is a big election round the

corner. I don't know, the Liberal Democrats are winning seats at

by-elections all over the country. These are local county council seats

and these are being fought on those and these are being fought on those

important local issues. I don't necessarily agree with what you are

saying. The electoral reform Society reported a few days ago that the

West Midlands has the lowest proportion of voters turning out in

elections generally across the period and that is the biggest worry

for your party, isn't it? Stay at home Labour voters. Not just our

party, all of us want to see people participating in elections. People

fought hard for the vote. The thing about this election, as I say, is it

is not necessary. This election is is not necessary. This election is

being done because the Conservative Party wanted to cash in on an

opinion poll. I do not think that is a good reason. A final point? I give

the same point as I did earlier, Theresa May is re-establishing her

mandate. Message received. Thank you very much for joining us today.

Time now for our usual reminder of the rest of the developments

60 Seconds is brought to us today by Nick Watson.

Mike Wood returned to the Commons after falling ill with sepsis,

At the final PMQs before the election, he said the condition

It is good to be back, and to be honest,

is hoping to make a comeback in Birmingham Yardley

He lost the seat to Labour's Jess Phillips two years ago

Redditch MP Karen Lumley is to stand down due to ill health

She says it's been a huge honour to represent

Organisers of the general election count in Birmingham are going

The usual venues at the Barclaycard Arena and the ICC are

quit as the Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs spokesman

for Ukip in protest at what he calls the party's "misguided" policy

And remember a few years back, Labour's former

Foreign Secretary Jack Straw angered Muslim groups by saying

Islamic face veils made community relations more difficult.

They banned them in France. It is right? I don't think France is

right. We should not ban these things. There are many seek

constituents who are very concerned about the way France does it and I

think that is wrong. I entirely agree. I think what France is doing

is unpleasant especially when you My thanks to Pat McFadden

and Mark Garnier. Finally from me,

looking ahead to Friday, we'll bring you all the drama,

as it unfolds, of those mayoral That's in Midlands Today, at

1:30pm and 6:30pm here on BBC One. And plenty for us to talk about too

on next weekend's Sunday Politics, when our studio guests

will include the first-ever directly-elected

Midlands Metro Mayor. This, though, is where

we rejoin Andrew Neil. we will take the mandate that we

want. To all three of you, thank you. Andrew, back to you.

So, how will Thursday's local election results affect

Who's winning the election ground war?

And as he celebrates 100 days in the White House,

We have the local elections, Metro elections in Liverpool, greater

Birmingham, West Midlands, how will they play into the general election?

Significantly, it is very unusual. People keep comparing this with the

election in 83, not! Margaret Thatcher was nervous and to wait

until after the local elections to call the election to see the result.

We are getting these result in the middle of an election campaign so it

will be important, whoever does badly will suffer a dent in

confidence in terms of how they approach the election and we are

also going to have mayoral figures as a reminder of another big

difference with the 80s that however big, say, the Conservatives win in

Westminster, there are now sectors of power in other parts of the

United Kingdom which were not there in the 80s. One of the reasons

niches that are rated in 83 was memories were still alive in

political circles of 1970, Wilson saw the local election results and

thought, I can win, he was told he would win by the Economist magazine,

who had done the analysis, and of course he lost, so that is why she

waited, Mrs May does not need to wait for that at all now, and on the

Metro elections, the one she will be looking at is the West Midlands,

that is the one that is a competition. I think she can really

lose on Thursday in the local elections, governing parties are

supposed to take effect again, losing lots of council seats. She is

projected to put on 100 or so seats, Labour projected to lose around 200,

the first time the main opposition party has shed seats since something

like 83 so clearly the local elections give Mrs May great

momentum going into the general election campaign but there is a

downside in that, which is what we have already heard fighting about

this morning, if it looks like it is going too well for the Tories, it

says to voters, why bother turning up? Sushi comes up with totally

unbelievable sound bites this morning that this is the most

important general election in her lifetime. Really?! For her it is! It

always is until the next one! I wonder if voter turnout is a

problem? Tory voters are more likely to vote than Labour voters. If there

is a sense that it is all over bar the shouting, the overall turnout

will be low that Tory voters are still likely to turn out more than

Labour voters so she would still win some. I don't think she needs to be

too worried, I think there will be a significantly low turnout, even I am

finding it hard to be that excited about this general election. Really,

the policies, we have spent a lot of time talking about them today and we

have to examine them, but all this is about is, do you want Theresa May

or Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten? Those are the only question is,

apart from possibly how strong do you feel about Brexit, that will be

on the voters' minds. You may say that but I will not be put off from

going through a list of policies that we have already had in the last

24 hours. On the Conservatives, more powers to stop company bosses under

pensions, of course Philip Green was in mind there. Labour has come up

with quite a few policies, actually, give all work of equal rights,

whether part-time or full-time, temporary or permanent. Ukip, scrap

VAT or takeaway -- on takeaway food and end the BBC licence fee. The

Liberal Democrats have come out posed to the runway at Heathrow. I

thought I knew that already? Will any of these policies make a

difference? They are all nice handy things that people quite liked but

probably not, is the answer. They are an awful way away from polling

day now for people to remember and latch onto. I don't think you make

your mind up on small issues like Heathrow, unless you live in

Richmond-upon-Thames, maybe, but the problem Labour have got with

unfailing a lot of these retail type policies which, in themselves, are

very popular, is no one will listen to them until they get over the

leadership credibility issue. Jeremy Corbyn could the world on a stick,

but if no one believes he can deliver it then he will not be

listened to and he has not done much apart from a speech yesterday in

which is claim to fame was getting arrested, I don't see how that would

work for him getting to Number Ten. They are not making progress on it.

Labour has rolled out a number of policies which, taken individually,

would have certain traction in normal times, quite interesting

ideas, this sense of unfairness, a feeling that ordinary workers have

not done well out of the recovery, those who caused the crash have, 20

points, I went through some of them earlier, putting aside they are not

costed, we are assured they will be. The problem I suggest is not the

costing but the cut through? Every election has a context which is

determined by opinion polls, however sceptical we are these days, and if

one party is way ahead it is difficult for the other party to

appear relevant, because if people assume they are not going to win,

even some of its own MPs are saying, we are not going to win this, so you

can vote for us, it is very hard to get attention and relevance. Where I

think all the parties are bad with their current leaders is framing

arguments, so those policies you have highlighted makes sense. The

best leaders are brilliant framers of an argument and neither Theresa

Maynor Jeremy Corbyn R. They have been campaigning, their manifestos

are not out yet, both sides have been telling us we have to wait for

costings, but it has not stopped them campaigning. Let's remind you

of where they have been and what they have been doing so far.

Let's start with Jeremy Corbyn, his first official visit was in the

ultra-marginal Conservative seat of Croydon Central where the MP Gavin

Barwell has a lead of just 165. That is not the only Conservative seat he

has visited, along the way he popped in on Bristol North West, a

Conservative majority of nearly 5000. The Tory seat of Cardiff

North, a lead of just over 2000, Warrington South, just over 2700,

and Crewe and Nantwich, Tory majority of three and a half

thousand. Yesterday he visited Bethnal greed and Bob, a Labour lead

of 20 4000. Theresa May kicked off her campaign in Bolton, Labour

majority of over 4000. On her way round the UK she had a comfy stop in

her own maidenhead seat, where she is defending a majority of nearly

30,000, before travelling to other Labour marginals including Dudley

North, a Labour lead of 4000. Bridgend, a lead of just under 2004

Labour, before becoming ambitious and visiting shadow minister Richard

Bergen's Leeds East seat, which he won by over 12,500 votes. Yesterday

she went north of the border to Aberdeenshire, where amongst other

places she visited the SNP seat of West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine,

where the Tories would have to gain over 7000 votes to unseat the NP.

What do you make of it all so far? It is remarkable she is doing these

visits in Scotland. Past but even five years and the idea of a Tory

Prime Minister going round Scotland would be utterly counter-productive,

and actually they are ambitious for Scotland now under with Davidson, a

prospect of multiple seats, and that would be a real genuine shift in

Scottish politics, the likes of which we have not seen for 15 or 20

years. If she gets that, that helps towards 100 seats, because if she

wins ten in Scotland, it is effectively 20, the SNP lose ten,

she gains ten, she wants to do that in the Midlands with Labour, and the

North. To get the 100 majority, other than Scotland, she has to win

Labour seats, that is all that is there. And clearly she has been

told, it is obvious, that she has a chance of doing so, otherwise you

don't go to these parts of the country in the first few days of the

campaign. All logic points to her being able to pull it off as well.

The opinion polls, the state of the Labour Party. The only qualification

I have in this is that politics is so wild and free Braille at the

moment, it doesn't feel like landslide to rain. That is true, it

doesn't. It is early days, we haven't yet had the manifestos, the

campaign is yet to gather momentum. It doesn't feel like landslide

territory. I disagree, look at every single poll, the Tory lead is 10% in

Wales, you can see her picking up 20 seat there. Put this together, I am

told by the way she is going into traditional Labour heartland again

tomorrow, the key is the Ukip vote. That will implode... Crumble towards

Tories? If she can hoover that up and retain the Tory vote, she will

have a majority of 150. I cannot let you go without

reminding you that it is Donald Trump's 100 days. He's not making a

lot of it now, this is what he said last night.

We are just beginning in our fight to make America great again.

Now, before we talk about my first 100 days, which has been very

exciting and very productive, let's rate the media's 100 days.

Because, as you know, they are a disgrace.

There you go, still bashing the media, that was at a rally in

Virginia, the 100 days was last night. He seems happier campaigning

than running the country. You each have 20 seconds to give me your

board on the first 100 days. Remarkable, he will not stop

slagging off the media but America first has not meant America first in

terms of national policy, he has reneges on what he said about Nato

being obsolete. He is moving from the old right to the centre because

that is where you get things done, he is a pragmatist, also is about's

friend Nigel Parrott is no longer welcome, we read this morning!

Allegedly! He loves campaigning but finds governing much more difficult.

Who would have thought being president of the United States was a

difficult job?! He loves rallies but being president and politics is a

very difficult thing indeed. Thank you, there we go, Mr Trump's 100

days, we will see what the next 100 brings.

The Daily Politics is back on BBC Two after the bank holiday

on Tuesday at midday, with all the latest

And I'll be back here on BBC One next Sunday

Remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.