07/05/2017 Sunday Politics West Midlands

It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

With just a month to go until the general election,

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

But is there still really all to play for?

And tonight we will find out who is the next

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

after an unpredictable campaign that ended with a hack attack

And in the Midlands: are the Conservatives

Whatever next in Labour's local Heartlands?

elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next

month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

There is a lot of new money going into it.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

No, it is new money going into the NHS

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

only getting started, there was plenty of action

still to come. It's not quite the night

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

think the election's just I think leave it

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

winning a single seat. The joke going around

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

and seven councils. If the result is what these

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

the control of a whole council came The section of England

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

but I have one here. With the introduction

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

because I've got some I used to present news,

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

with their best local So another election results

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

which of course means those earning more than that could

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

won its best ever local government performance,

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the at the moment, it is certainly not

job for six months and in half that time he was fighting a by-election

-- certainly not Paul Nuttall's fault. We have two become more

professional than we have been recently. It has not been a

brilliant year for Ukip one way or another, as you know, but there are

prospects, in future, that are very rosy. I do not believe that the

Tories will deliver on other promises that they are now making.

The Welsh assembly elections are not until 2021, you are a member of

that, but at that point you will not have any MEPs, because we will be

out on the timetable. With this current showing he will have no

end', you could be Ukip's most senior elected representative. That

would be a turnout for the books! -- no elected MPs. The Tories are not

promoting the policies that I believe them. You will see that in

the Ukip manifesto when it is shortly publish... Leaders talk

mainly about the male genital mutilation and is -- female and

burqas. No, when the manifesto launched, we have a lot of policies,

I spoke moments ago about it, but also on foreign aid. Scrapping green

taxes, to cut people's electricity bills by ?300 per year on average.

There are a lot of popular policies that we have. We will hear more from

that in the weeks to come. Paul Nuttall said "If the price of

written leaving the year is a Tory advance after taking up this

patriarch course, it is a price that Ukip is prepared to pay". That

sounds like a surrender statement? It is a statement of fact, the main

agenda is to get out of the EU and have full Brexit. That is why Ukip

came into existence 20 years ago. When it is achieved, we go back to

the normal political battle lines. Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you

very much for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am,

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

in Scotland, who leave us now Hello again.

we'll be talking about the French Welcome to the Sunday Politics

in the Midlands as Labour's local The Conservatives sweep

clean, with a Metro Mayor Are they really streets ahead,

with just 32 days to go, We may not have a Parliament

at the moment. But the Conservative

Harriett Baldwin is still And Jack Dromey remains

Labour's Labour spokesman, And of course we'll be joined

here by all the other main parties during the course of this

month of Sundays. They've been staging

the National Karate Championships at Birmingham's Barclaycard Arena

this weekend. But only after that giant indoor

stadium had witnessed some real martial arts,

a gladiatorial epic, in which the Conservative Andy

Street defeated Labour's Sion Simon by less than 1% of the vote,

to become the Midlands In a nonpartisan way, it is a very

significant departure at this. This is a historic moment. It is because

we have devolved a lot of power to a West Midlands Metro Mayor and it is

going to be very good for our region to have more of the budget and

decision making major locally. I could not be more thrilled that the

electorate chose Andy Street. It is not on the lips of most people and

the turnout was one in four. Having said that, it offers next potential

at the next ages. If the region works together to build a strong

economy in the next region, which is what we badly need to do. What went

wrong for a Labour? Was Sion Simon the right candidate? He fought a

good collection. I knew Andy Street and he was an impressive candidate.

The next test for Andy, he was helped with the expenditure of ?1

million, the next test and is that he has to be more of the Metro Mayor

first Solihull. He has got to stand up for the region. The concern was

that he would put his party and number ten Downing St first. The

test of home, is he a champion for the west midlands at the next age?

He said he would represent London to the Midlands rather than the other

way around. Andy Street was a great candidate and it was ugly for the

unions to spend the same money backing Sion Simon. It was a close

election. We will take this up again in a minute or two. -- OK for the

unions. No wonder Theresa May beat a path

to the West Midlands so soon after an election victory which,

she hopes, will help Unlike in Manchester,

the Midlands new Metro Mayor was on hand to welcome his party

leader, when she met business Andy Street says his win confirms

the Conservatives' urban agenda, 30 years after the first woman prime

minister said her party still needed to rebuild its support

in the cities: a mission largely Elizabeth Glinka witnessed the great

mayoral drama as it unfolded. There are flashing

images in her report. After months of campaigning,

the moment of truth. Street, Andy, the Conservative Party

candidate is duly elected as mayor for the West Midlands Combined

Authority. Second preference votes took

Andy Street over the line The transformation of businessmen

to politician complete. A lot of people have

put their trust in me and that is a very moving thing,

actually, paticularly for someone who has not been

involved in politics before. So I feel a huge sense

of resonsibility for Do I think we can do it together,

build a team together? Birmingham, Wolverhampton, Coventry

and Sandwell all voted Labour. Dudley, Walsall and Solihull

backed the Conservatives And it was that big vote

in Solihull, combined with a big-money campaign

by the Tories, which Labour We lost this election partly

in the Conservative heartlands of Solihull where the Conservatives

spent millions of pounds, to which we don't have access,

or access to even a fraction of the millions of

pounds that they spent. As a result of which expenditure,

the turnout in Solihull - overwhelmingly Conservative -

was a third higher than The spending gap was

an issue also highlighted Coming third was not

a bad performance. There was a big resource

differential in terms of what we were all able to invest

in the campaign. So I feel really proud

and tremendously thankful to everyone in my team

for all their hard work and effort. But on a tour of the TV studios,

the new mayor said it was a victory We said at the beginning of this

campaign that we would reach every And if you look at the results, yes,

we won big in some traditional Conservative areas but we did very

respectably in every borough. So I can look back on that and say

the results today are actually telling us that we have connected

with every area and the job of the mayor is to pull the leadership

from the whole region together. There are also lingering

concerns about the turnout. Barely one in four voters took part

in Thursday's mayoral election. One of Mr Street's first

jobs could be convincing a sceptical public they need

a Metro Mayor at all. Elizabeth Glinka, on a day that

will live long in the memories Now, as promised let's hear

from Andy Street himself. He now becomes arguably the most

influential local politician since Joseph Chamberlain almost

a century and a half ago, the leader of nearly

three million people. So I began by asking him

if a turnout of little more than one in four,

was enough of a vote of confidence Actually, as you say, it is far more

than we thought it would be If you compare it say

with the first turnout in London when Ken Livingstone

was establishing the mayor, it is What has happened in London is every

time the turnout has gone up at subsequent elections and I have

got to make sure in three years' important role and I want to go

and vote next time. But there are still plenty

of people out there, convinced that we need

a Metro Mayor. They think it's a vanity project

and they really rather wish we hadn't gone down

this road at all. I do know that but equally

I know I have know got the opportunity to prove the value

of the role and that is exactly You've said on several occasions

that he would not have achieved this if you had not won

suport among all sections of the community and indeed in all

seven areas of the West Midlands Up to a point that is

the case of course but you did concentrate a lot of this nearly

?1 million that you raised and spent in Solihull to pile up support

and that has led to suggestions that maybe there should tighter limits

next time on spending. OK, on the funding, we did not spend

quite ?1 million first of all. But we did spend more than others,

I fully accept that. All the money was raised

for this campaign and we had The huge majority of

it was raised locally. What we think we have done

across the region actually, is draw the key issues

to everyone's attention. And actually, going back

to your previous question, the fact the turnout was much better

than people predicted is possibly

a reaction to that. So we have tried to inform people

about what is really at stake. Campaigning with Theresa May,

requesting an early meeting the charge against you by

Sion Simon, your Labour opponent that you're basically London's

man in the Midlands? And, as you know, I have rejected

that charge on the campaign trail, because what the mayor has got to do

is champion the region first. And that does mean working with

central Government. I do not accept the Labour

approach to this which might be described as West Midlands

fortress, to some extent. The reality is, yes,

we have got some powers ourselves and must use those

and do that confidently, further powers and further financial

support from central Government and that is what I will be doing

when I talk to Theresa May. The West Midlands is at

the wrong end of some very I'm thinking of affordable housing,

job creation, skills. Is there enough money

in this mayoral pot to address these very

significant challenges? There is enough money to make a good

start on some of these issues but it is not just

about the money, Patrick. What we also have to do

is think about a regional creative thinking and also

use the resources that If we think about youth

unemployment, for example, we have already across the West

Midlands as a whole reduced that That was not necessarily

about lots of new money. That was about growing

the economy and some creative new schemes

being put in place. We do though have to

continue to make case for further investment

and that There are obvious dangers of reading

across from one set of elections to the general election. It is

something that really does stand out as you think of Walsall where labour

have two intentionally vulnerable marginal seats to defend. Andy

Street one Walsall. We are looking forward to the general election. We

are into the general election campaign. It will be very

challenging for us. We have yet to convince the country that we are

incredible opposition. It is about holding this Prime Minister to

account. She said she would cut the police and what she did was cut

people use by 20000 and increased crime. She said she would protect

mental health services and she is saying that again but we have seen

expenditure fall... 19% ahead in the polls. 15% fewer mental health

nurses. Now is the time to hold her properly to account at the next

ages. That is what we will do, including on the big issues that

affect to be people that I represent. Health, education... Andy

Street has used this expression, the Conservatives knew our been a

agenda. That means Theresa May, despite what you say, is turning out

to be an asset and reaching out to strong Labour strongholds. I have

seen that first-hand but what it is is old paper politics on the one

hand but it is also pretending to be a friend and champion of working

people when they record shows they are nothing of the kind. To get back

to your question, I think all elections are different but what is

crucial in the mayoral election, it was about leadership who was best to

beat the West Midlands Metro Mayor contest and in terms of the general

election, it is going to be about leadership and shows how close the

selection was in the west Midlands. How important it is to get out and

fought. It is going to be who we want to lead the country on these

issues. Is it Theresa May at a conservative team? On Andy Street's

leadership, isn't there an inevitability that the mayoral role

will project beyond the limits on to the surrounding shire counties where

there isn't a vote for this role? Something has got to change, maybe

the footprint on enlarging the region, for example? I would not be

considering that at this point. I think it is important for was to

show, where I am standing as a candidate, because a lot of my

candidates do work in the Metro area. It is important. I think at

this point we have got to recognise it is insignificant size area. Did

Andy Street by the election giving the spending gap between him and the

other parties? Particularly with Solihull in mind? It is all raised

from donations from people who want to see him to win. Hugely outspent.

No, hang on... Usually outspent all of the other parties. All of the

other parties put together. ?1 million. You were free to spend that

amount with union money. You spent ?1 million on the campaign. It was

under that and it was an electorate that was 3 million. It is important

to inform the electorate for this role and make the case for Andy

Street being the best candidate. I am pleased it worked. I think we got

the message on that. Thank you very much indeed.

That's how one Conservative council leader hailed the party's

emphatic performance in our five shire counties.

The Tories were already in control of Shropshire,

They completed a clean sweep by taking Warwickshire

With a general election coming so soon, we wanted to know

what all this meant for those key local marginal seats.

Would the Liberal Democrats sustain their "Brexit Bounce"?

Kathryn Stanczyszyn, has the answers.

They dared hope for a good night but it was even better than that.

The Conservatives were confident they would gain the two

seats needed to take full control of Warwickshire.

In the end, they bagged nine more than in 2013.

A storming victory, particularly in areas

This map of the north of Warwickshire now

Where there was red, there is now blue.

The Conservatives say the results here have been more

They've won the popular vote in the Bedworth area

Really I was hoping that we would tip over the 30

That gives us a brilliant working majority.

It was a picture repeated across the county shires of the Midlands.

Local county maps turning bluer than they have been for some time.

Increased majorities across the board meant control taken

back in Gloucestershire and in Staffordshire, an

I think it is Theresa May and the bold vision she is putting

The Conservatives at the moment are seen on the doorstep and around

the county as a party that can be trusted to deliver services

for residents and make sure that the job gets done.

Jubilance on one side and despair on the other.

Labour lost dozens of seats in areas previously considered solid.

And in places like Staffordshire, they have to win people back to have

For some, there is no doubt what played a part.

People do not like divided parties and there are all sorts

of divisions within the party which are unhealthy.

I think it is important the leadership take note of these

election results across the whole country, not just in Staffordshire,

and make sure they are listening to what are the people's priorities.

For the Liberal Democrats, the breakthrough did not happen.

But they put more than a brave face on it.

They have more local seats than any other party

Their membership is through the roof.

I think they will do pretty well in the generals as well.

That brave face was a little harder to maintain for Ukip,

who lost every contest they stood in.

After the referendum, there has been a lot of underfunding

Some candidates have struggled to get a full amount

So, yeah, that is one of the reasons why we have had such

The Greens managed to up their numbers by two.

They say local is where they are best.

People like to be listened to and we were out there for one

year and a half finding out what local concerns were and working

As Conservatives up and down the region survey a sea of blue,

they start to wonder just how much more of it they can

You can understand the suspicions that the Tories will be managing

expectations down among their supporters to try and keep them

that reading across from one set of that reading across from one set of

because you get the ticket affect, because you get the ticket affect,

turnout will be different, the turnout will be different, the

Paul's, we know about the polls. You display of caution. He may have good

reason to be cautious. I think it is important to recognise that every

election is different that what is important in the general election it

is about who do you want to be reading the country through this

very important time? Who do you want to be in charge of negotiations with

the European Union over Article 50? Who do you want to be in charge of

the economy at this crucial time? And who do you want to be in charge

of important public services? She is being very uncomfortable with some

of the economy's spending squeeze that your Government has inflicted

on her. It has been a resounding endorsement that county councils

have managed that situation and delivered good public services and a

growing economy to find those public services. The general election is

going to be about an endorsement of food we want to lead the country.

How would you respond to that? What I am finding is that people will be

voting differently. A conservative voter who will be voting for me will

be saying to me, Jack, I will be voting for you because you let the

campaign to save the nursery school but also I do not want to see a Tory

territory. What we are seeing is a general election by a party who

wants to act in the best interest of the Conservative Party and not the

country. You voted for this general election. There are profound

questions about what kind of country do we become? It is best for Britain

to get out of Brexit, that is for certain. I am talking to nurses who

are despairing about what is happening within their hospitals. I

am talking about people who are disabled who are despairing about

the treatment they have suffered. I am talking to teachers who are

saying they are going to have to cut classroom assistants and cut back on

our curriculum. What kind of country for the future? It is not just about

Brexit. What Jack did not vote for is his current leader. He is someone

who does not think that Jeremy Corbyn ought to be able to lead the

Labour Party, let alone the country. This general election on the 8th of

June is who we want to be leading the country. You candidate in

Nuneaton is one of those Labour councillors who lost the seat. He

braves the leadership of Jeremy Corbyn. -- blames. Any Labour

Government is better than any Conservative Government. He have to

look at the history of the National Health Service. She wants to make it

a presidential campaign when this is about the future of our country. For

the moment, thank you. Let's remind ourselves

what else has been happening Our round-up in 60 Seconds is

brought to us today by Nick Watson. Paul Dadge, who shot to fame helping

the wounded in the wake of the 7/7 bombings in London,

has been selected to fight the Tory-held Cannock Chase

seat for Labour. Elsewhere, Labour has

picked former the Telford and Wrekin Council leader,

Kuldip Sahota, as their candidate in marginal seat of Telford

which is currently held Ukip leader Paul Nuttall was out

on the campaign trail in Dudley. He failed in his bid to win

the Stoke Central by-election. No, I don't. I think there has been

days behind them? No, I don't. I think there has been

a small movement towards the Tories. I think what you will see during the

next five weeks is that people will come back to Ukip once they realise

we are the real Brexiteer 's. a German-owned factory

in the Erdington area of Birmingham which supplies many

of the region's top manufacturers. And Neal Stote, the leader

of the now disbanded Save the Alex hospital campaign,

is to run in Redditch in the General Election campaign

for the National Health Action Health can really cut to the core of

the local community and make a mockery of parties. I was thrilled

that Rachel McLean has been selected to be the Conservative candidate for

the Redditch constituency in the general election. A range of

candidates will become known later this week. The health service is on

its knees under the Tories. The next age is, good luck to Paul because he

is a health hero and good luck to Corbyn. In fact it makes the point

that Brexit is not the only issue. It is a critical issue for the

future of our country but it is also about what kind of country button

should be. Sooner or later, Labour Government is run out of other

people's money and we need a strong Government... I am afraid the clock

has been the final arbiter. My thanks to Harriett

Baldwin and Jack Dromey. MPs no longer with

Parliament dissolved. And yet we don't know for sure

who all the candidates will be Like Westminster itself,

we're in limbo. Because nominations don't

close until Thursday. So if you're still thinking

of throwing your hat in the ring, In an uncertain world,

you can at least count on us to be This, though, is where

we rejoin Andrew Neil. housing associations and investment,

but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.

Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the

party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin

with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for

four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this

election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she

thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,

she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with

accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks

when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the

manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in

the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.

She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big

she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of

strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,

they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that

the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with

it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody

over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few

things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,

they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to

the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a

question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later

on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her

interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short

manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,

aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think

Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local

candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much

framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not

a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and

the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the

population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle

England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be

her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big

slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the

public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is

happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The

Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he

denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before

saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a

Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe

that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended

not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe

that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand

systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the

economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a

generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,

yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution

my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,

I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have

untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been

exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about

to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,

when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he

would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is

clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described

it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.

There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.

Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in

constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the

former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they

could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with

their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that

there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous

battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,

where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because

of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway

that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election

results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear

that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John

McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it

would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is

not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but

maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with

30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it

reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they

said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million

votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that

manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of

holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform

on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and

desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say

that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as

an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top

party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and

decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential

candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching

straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the

Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.

Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a

dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89

MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not

know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative

vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.

Four weeks to go, but not for France...

France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get

a first estimate of who will be the country's next President

Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.

The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal

reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist

Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.

The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential

hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.

The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,

and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before

campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said

it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,

with a trove of documents released online.

The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,

and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading

details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.

I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist

As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus

that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any

reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there

have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have

decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was

agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as

president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le

Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something

huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,

he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,

then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a

fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his

reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his

programme through? I think that right now, with how things are

looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the

Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want

to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at

the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on

how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very

well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an

adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of

France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three

years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She

would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le

Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and

ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of

that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?

Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le

Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that

2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just

five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the

election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here

on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair

indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on

BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every

turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One

at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

it's the Sunday Politics. Our crack team of experts

use pioneering research