15/06/2014 Sunday Politics West


15/06/2014

With Andrew Neil and David Garmston. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman debate the Iraq crisis and Jackie Baillie and Blair Jenkins discuss Scottish independence.


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Transcript


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Well, this is the closest I'll get to Rio.

:00:37.:00:43.

The advance of the Islamist army on Baghdad has been slowed.

:00:44.:00:48.

The Iraqi army claims the fightback has begun.

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But the country now faces a de facto partition.

:00:51.:00:52.

What should Britain, Europe, or the US be doing - if anything?

:00:53.:00:55.

It's been a big week in the Scottish referendum.

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But has the tone of the debate become too downright nasty?

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Both sides join us to go head to head.

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I will swap Ed Miliband for Tim Farren. What is the significance of

:01:10.:01:13.

that? In the West, coming to a shorter

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even Westminster, we'll be asking In the West, coming to a shorter

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line near you, with hopes of a Severn barrage dead in the

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In London, why the minority vote one recent elections Labour, but recent

:01:30.:01:32.

support amongst people is bigger than assumed.

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The Sunni Islamist army known as ISIS is now in control

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of huge swathes of northern and western Iraq, including

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Until the weekend they looked like advancing relentlessly

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on Baghdad but that offensive has now been slowed or even halted

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The Iraqi army and its Shia milita allies vow that

:01:55.:01:58.

Baghdad will not be taken and that a counter-attack will soon begin.

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Iraq's Shia Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has to do something to

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reverse the humiliation of recent days, which saw

:02:09.:02:10.

his US-trained and equipped Iraqi army, which outnumbered

:02:11.:02:16.

the Islamists 15 to 1 melt away or surrender when confronted by ISIS.

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The conflict has already created a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds

:02:20.:02:22.

The Kurds have used the conflict to consolidate their hold on their

:02:23.:02:32.

autonomous area in the north, parts of the west and the north are in the

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grip of ISIS control and the Shias are hunkering down in the east.

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All of which makes a three-way partition a real possibility with

:02:40.:02:41.

The US is moving another of its massive aircraft carrier

:02:42.:02:46.

battlefleets to the Gulf, though the White House shows no

:02:47.:02:48.

While Iran says it's ready to help its Shia allies

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and there are unconfoirmed reports that its revolutionary guard has

:02:54.:02:55.

Well, I'm joined now by Newsnight's diplomatic editor Mark Urban.

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Let's start with some basics. Who are ISIS and why are they

:03:09.:03:18.

controlling big chunks of Iraq? ISIS is an extremist militant jihad

:03:19.:03:23.

organisation and they have a pure Islamic concept based on 14th

:03:24.:03:27.

century history and jurisprudence. What they want to do is correct --

:03:28.:03:31.

create this caliphate that do not recognise colonial boundaries so it

:03:32.:03:37.

involves Syria and Iraq, and they could go down to Lebanon and

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Palestine, that is all fair game as far as they are concerned. And they

:03:41.:03:43.

have this strict interpretation of Islam. The more interesting question

:03:44.:03:48.

is why have semi-Sunni Muslims, along with them, these are precisely

:03:49.:03:56.

the sort of people who in 2006, 2007, tribal leaders in the west of

:03:57.:04:01.

the country rose up against. It was called the Awakening and the

:04:02.:04:04.

Americans in power did and bankrolled it. These people turned

:04:05.:04:10.

against them and admired them in large numbers, so why do they have

:04:11.:04:13.

so many Sunni Muslims on their side? We hear about people going

:04:14.:04:18.

back to Mosul. I think the answer is a perception

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back to Mosul. I think the answer that the current government is

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ruling in sectarian interests, Shia Muslim interest, and the Sunni

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Muslims want self-determination and this is their best bet.

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Muslims want self-determination and this is their Let me put up this map

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to find out where we are going. We can see Mosul in the north, they

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took that, and then they started, South, reports that the crit was

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involved -- to grit -- to grit. What is the situation on the ground now?

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We are in what you might call a consolidation or strategic pause as

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American called it in 2003. ISIS are trying to consolidate their power in

:05:00.:05:02.

Mosul, and now they have this major city and they are trying to show

:05:03.:05:05.

they can run the city and get the power going, etc. Their southernmost

:05:06.:05:11.

forces, that is a gorilla army, guys in pick-up trucks. They cannot deal

:05:12.:05:15.

with serious opposition. They would like to get the tanks and other

:05:16.:05:19.

things into action but that could take weeks for them to be able to do

:05:20.:05:24.

it. The government side is that they have counter-attacked, but it will

:05:25.:05:27.

take a little while before these newly raised militia and other task

:05:28.:05:33.

forces, call them what you will can effectively counter-attacked. But

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that is what will happen in the next week or two. We will see

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increasingly large and serious government counter-attacked trying

:05:43.:05:51.

to retake those places, and I fear a really difficult, bloody Syrian

:05:52.:05:56.

style street by street battle for some of these urban centres. I would

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like to have a look at this map because the Kurds, as I mentioned,

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they are consolidating their position in the autonomous region in

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the north. The Islamist are taking over huge chunks of the Sunni Muslim

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West. And of course the Shia Muslim are still dominant in control of

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Baghdad and in parts of the south and east. Back to me looks like the

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beginnings of the partition of Iraq. -- back to me. Well, it is, but we

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have to caveat it in a few ways Firstly, there are millions of

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people in Iraq, so-called sushi combined families, who do not fit

:06:41.:06:45.

easily into the pattern. Do we see millions of people becoming refugees

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under this scheme? There would be a lot of human tragedies if people

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really did try to enforce this type partition. Secondly, there are Sunni

:06:54.:06:59.

Muslim communities in the south of Baghdad, those places, once again, a

:07:00.:07:05.

lot of misery and fighting will occur if people try to enforce a de

:07:06.:07:15.

facto partition. There are still an awakening of forces. They are on the

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side of the government. We heard about one group in Samarra of Sunni

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Muslims fighting on the same side. It's a complex picture. They factor,

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it does look like a partition, and if it goes further in that direction

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it will. And partition will always be messy because people end up on

:07:37.:07:41.

the wrong side of the lies. Finally, the big thing on that map,

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Iran, a huge place, a huge border with Shia Muslim Iraq. Iran now

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becomes a key factor. It is becoming a proxy war for Iran. Yes, when I

:07:52.:07:58.

was in Baghdad a few months ago I did actually see Iranians

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revolutionary guards in uniform They were protecting a senior

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Iranians official, so some numbers have been never some time and they

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are also said to protect the political leaders and -- in his

:08:10.:08:15.

compound. They are there. We think more of them are trying to organise

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the defence of Baghdad to galvanise the Iraqi army, and they will not

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allow the Iraqi government to fall. Mark, thank you for marking archive

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this morning. -- marking our card. Tony Blair took Britain

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into the Iraq conflict in 2003. He's now, among other things, envoy

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to the Middle East representing That's the UN, the EU,

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the US and Russia. This morning he entered

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the debate about what should be My point is simple. If you left

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Saddam in place in 2003, when 2 11 happened and you have the Arab

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revolutions going through Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, Bahrain and Egypt and

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Syria, you would still have had a major problem in Iraq. You can see

:09:02.:09:04.

what happens when you leave the dictator in place, as has happened

:09:05.:09:08.

with Bashar al-Assad. The problem doesn't go away. What I'm trying to

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say is, we can rerun the debates about 2003, and there are perfectly

:09:13.:09:16.

legitimate points on either side, but where we are in 2014, we have do

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understand that this is a regional problem, but a problem that will

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affect us. And I'm joined by the former Foreign

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Office minister Mark Malloch-Brown, Here in London are James Rubin,

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he was chief spokesman for the State Department under

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Bill Clinton, and Bayan Rahman, she represents the Kurdistan

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Regional government in the UK. Intervened in Iraq, it's a shambles,

:09:35.:09:51.

we don't intervene in Syria, it s a shambles. What lessons should we

:09:52.:09:55.

draw? That is a well framed question, because that is the

:09:56.:09:59.

problem. Tony Blair is half right. Iraq, like Syria, would probably

:10:00.:10:02.

have been a problem even without an intervention. But one wishes someone

:10:03.:10:07.

would tell him to stay quiet during moments like this, because it does

:10:08.:10:12.

drive a great surge of people in the other direction. The fact is, what

:10:13.:10:17.

has been missing in western politics towards the Middle East throughout

:10:18.:10:20.

both episodes, Syria and Iraq, is a drive to build an inclusive,

:10:21.:10:25.

democratic centre which is secular and nonsectarian. That has been

:10:26.:10:31.

missing amongst the threats of invasion Manon invasion, we have

:10:32.:10:37.

just constantly neglected the diplomatic nation-building

:10:38.:10:41.

dimensional this. I want to come onto what is happening on the

:10:42.:10:44.

ground. I want to begin with what the Western response by me, and by

:10:45.:10:48.

that we mean the United States, because of it doesn't do anything,

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nobody will do anything. All of the signals I see coming out of the

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White is that Barack Obama has no appetite for intervention -- out of

:10:57.:11:00.

the White House. I don't think he does have an appetite. He would be

:11:01.:11:03.

very unlikely to do anything very large. He might feel pressured to

:11:04.:11:10.

act because of the fact that this particular group, this Al-Qaeda

:11:11.:11:15.

inspired group, fits into the strategy he has pursued in Yemen and

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Afghanistan and Pakistan, to use drone strikes against individual

:11:22.:11:24.

terrorists. So it is possible that the threat of ISIS in the region and

:11:25.:11:35.

the West in general might inspire him to act, but the idea he will do

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enough, militarily, to transform Iraq from its current state of civil

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War into something along the lines that Mark was talking about,

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nation-building diplomacy, a big operation, I don't see President

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Obama sees his historic mission as having got the United States as out

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of it. Leave it to the Pacific, perhaps. What would the Kurds like

:12:01.:12:07.

the West to do? First of all, in Kurdistan we face a huge

:12:08.:12:10.

humanitarian crisis. We already have had bought a quarter of a million

:12:11.:12:14.

Syrian refugees and we were struggling to cope with that. And

:12:15.:12:17.

now we have at least double that number of refugees coming from

:12:18.:12:24.

Mosul. First and foremost, we are calling on the international

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community to help us with that. So we need humanitarian aid? Let's

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assume we do that in some way, maybe not enough, but what else if

:12:33.:12:37.

anything? I think it is an incumbent on the west and other powers to

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assist Iraq to get rid of ISIS. I think the Sunni Arab community, some

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of whom have joined ISIS and may be supported the uprising, have

:12:51.:12:53.

justified complaints against the federal government. But we need the

:12:54.:12:59.

terrorists out of Iraq. That is first and foremost. And what the

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West can do is not necessarily intervene with boots on the ground,

:13:05.:13:06.

but provide technical assistance, provide intelligence and help the

:13:07.:13:10.

Iraqi army and air force to be more targeted. Can you defend yourselves?

:13:11.:13:17.

In Kurdistan, we can in terms of the disciplined troops. In this

:13:18.:13:24.

situation, I hope they won't be abandoning their post, that is for

:13:25.:13:27.

sure. It is a national cause fires. But we are not armed in the way that

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the Iraqi army is -- cause for us. We are not armed in the way that

:13:34.:13:37.

ISIS seems to be now they have seized some of the American kit We

:13:38.:13:41.

are not asking for weapons, but we ask for assistance for all of Iraq

:13:42.:13:46.

to deal with the situation. Mark, this is not just an Iraqi problem.

:13:47.:13:52.

This is a regional conflict, and from the Levant on the shores of the

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Mediterranean, all the way through to the Gulf, the region is gripped

:13:55.:13:59.

with what is essentially a Sunni and Shia Muslim sectarian war. Yes, with

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the caveats that Mark bourbon made earlier, it's not quite that

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straightforward, but the basic divide is exactly that -- Mark

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Urban. People have been looking for this to begin in Lebanon or Jordan

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and have been taken by surprise although with hindsight I'm not sure

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why, that it has begun in Iraq instead. At its most extreme, it

:14:21.:14:27.

risks redrawing the 20th century boundaries of the region in a way

:14:28.:14:31.

which would be highly unstable because it would pit a Shia Muslim

:14:32.:14:36.

bloc against the Sunni Muslim bloc and would undo all of the sort of

:14:37.:14:40.

social and economic advance of the last century, so the stakes are

:14:41.:14:46.

suddenly very, very high indeed Are we seeing the redrawing? The lines

:14:47.:14:52.

were drawn secretly, not far from here, about a mile away, and may

:14:53.:14:55.

have survived through thick and thin. They now look pretty fragile.

:14:56.:15:00.

The map is being redrawn. I think it is true that there is a key factor

:15:01.:15:08.

partition going on -- des facto Woodrow Wilson probably gave a bit

:15:09.:15:15.

of a hand to the promotion of the idea of self-determination, and in a

:15:16.:15:19.

way, there is a self determination going on, particularly in the

:15:20.:15:22.

Kurdish region, and perhaps they may end up the big winners in all of

:15:23.:15:25.

this, because they have proceeded with a relatively moderate,

:15:26.:15:31.

reconcilable government. The key thing that the Kurdish region has

:15:32.:15:39.

done. They used to fight the two groups, and now they fight together.

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What the Sunni Muslims have not done is figure out how to let politics

:15:46.:15:50.

let the side things instead of guns. We need to look clearly and in Syria

:15:51.:15:59.

and Iraq, if there is a Sunni extremist with ISIS that carves out

:16:00.:16:06.

a place for itself, it will be the great irony of the modern era.

:16:07.:16:10.

President Bush said he wanted to go into Iraq to fight terrorism. There

:16:11.:16:17.

was no terrorist. There are now If in Iraq and Syria together thereat a

:16:18.:16:23.

thousand strong Al-Qaeda capability that threatens the region, the

:16:24.:16:28.

West, the world, we are all going to have to do something about it.

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The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

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You would not want it on your southern border. Absolutely, we

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would not. The point we are all making indirectly is that things

:17:05.:17:07.

have changed in Iraq and will never be the same again. Whether Iraq

:17:08.:17:12.

completely disintegrates into three countries, or whether it stays

:17:13.:17:13.

together as one country, but a countries, or whether it stays

:17:14.:17:15.

together as one country, but loose federation, either way, Iraq has

:17:16.:17:21.

changed. It will not go back to what it was. I hope it will change for

:17:22.:17:27.

the better. I think we're at the make or break point for Iraq. Either

:17:28.:17:35.

the political readers -- the political leaders of a right wake up

:17:36.:17:39.

and smell the coffee and put aside their differences or there will be

:17:40.:17:43.

problems. This provides that opportunity, in a very nasty way. If

:17:44.:17:50.

we take it? Yes, and if not, I think this is the end of a rack as we know

:17:51.:17:55.

it. If anything resembling a caliphate emerges, that is very

:17:56.:18:04.

destabilising for the region itself. More so I would suggest than even

:18:05.:18:07.

the Taliban and Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan. At some stage, you have

:18:08.:18:12.

to assume that they will be coming for us. That is correct. This is

:18:13.:18:26.

extremely dangerous. The only way forward is for these political

:18:27.:18:30.

groups to talk to each other and find a compromise that allows the

:18:31.:18:34.

rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected within or the

:18:35.:18:37.

rates of cinemas and minorities in Iraq to be protected with an

:18:38.:18:41.

autonomous federal-state. Any support for the government must be

:18:42.:18:45.

premised on that. There is no military solution for this which is

:18:46.:18:57.

in during -- there is no military solution for this. There must be

:18:58.:19:05.

serious political negotiation, not with ISIS, but with Sunni Muslim

:19:06.:19:08.

moderates, to form a more representative government. This is

:19:09.:19:14.

the last chance for Iraq. I think we are all saying that that is going to

:19:15.:19:18.

need to be some major western leadership to make some big

:19:19.:19:21.

decisions here for the future of the region. I am concerned that after

:19:22.:19:27.

Afghanistan and Iraq, my country is quite world-weary, quite

:19:28.:19:32.

world-weary. It does not seem to be giving leadership. Certainly we are

:19:33.:19:38.

not seeing that in Europe. I am deeply concerned that we are not

:19:39.:19:41.

going to take the leadership role that needs to be taken. These are

:19:42.:19:47.

big issues. When Britain and France carved up the Middle East, they were

:19:48.:19:52.

world powers, operating as global powers, and without that global

:19:53.:19:56.

leadership by somebody, this is just going to get worse and worse. I

:19:57.:20:00.

think we will leave it there, thank you very much.

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The danger is that power will spread. This could grow in power.

:20:05.:20:10.

It is just under 100 days until the referendum on Scottish independence.

:20:11.:20:13.

So, for once, it'll be a long hot-summer

:20:14.:20:15.

But the campaign isn't just getting heated.

:20:16.:20:20.

In places it's also down-right nasty. When

:20:21.:20:22.

Scotland's best-selling author announced she was giving

:20:23.:20:24.

the unionist cause a million pounds this week, she received

:20:25.:20:26.

Independence supporters online, so-called cybernats,

:20:27.:20:34.

called JK Rowling a traitor and much worse, using a variety of

:20:35.:20:37.

For its part, the Better Together campaign has been accused

:20:38.:20:40.

Even Gordon Brown seems to think so, and this week he criticised

:20:41.:20:44.

Conservative ministers for relying on "threats

:20:45.:20:45.

With the Edinburgh Festival approaching, reports suggest even

:20:46.:20:51.

comedians are now reluctant to engage in the subject because

:20:52.:20:53.

I'm joined by Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland and Jackie Baillie

:20:54.:21:00.

They're both in our Glasgow studio, and they're going head to head.

:21:01.:21:15.

Blair Jenkins, let me come to you first. Why have you and the Better

:21:16.:21:21.

Together campaign and Alex Salmond not done more to slap down the cyber

:21:22.:21:24.

nationalists who are poisoning the debate? Good morning. I think both

:21:25.:21:30.

sides tried to stop the tiny number of people on both sides who are

:21:31.:21:34.

incapable of controlling themselves. We should not get this

:21:35.:21:40.

out of proportion. We are having a fantastic, decent and democratic

:21:41.:21:44.

debate. The people who probably total no more than 100 on both sides

:21:45.:21:48.

who post offensive material or not to be allowed to deflect from that

:21:49.:21:53.

fact. Of course there are nasty people on the Better Together side

:21:54.:21:56.

as well, but are you saying there are as many of those as the cyber

:21:57.:22:01.

nationalists? I have not done the Kent. Lots of people are certainly

:22:02.:22:07.

posting nasty in defensive things to people in the yes campaigners well.

:22:08.:22:12.

I imagine that people do what I do, and block them. You stop them from

:22:13.:22:18.

sending anything further. There is a democratic and in gauging progress

:22:19.:22:24.

going on throughout Scotland. It is characterised by good humour and

:22:25.:22:28.

good debate. We should not get out of proportion and the activities of

:22:29.:22:34.

the number of people. I want to get to Jackie Baillie. The debate is

:22:35.:22:37.

actually pretty good-humoured and you should be doing more about the

:22:38.:22:41.

nasties on your side as well? I think we have reached a new low this

:22:42.:22:47.

week. Despite many people engaging in the politics of the decision and

:22:48.:22:49.

the debate about that, whether we want to retain the best of both

:22:50.:22:56.

worlds are separate from the United Kingdom, what we have seen is the

:22:57.:23:00.

most abusive and vitriolic attack, particularly on women, JK Rowling

:23:01.:23:08.

and a Labour supporter who dared to support the no campaign. When you

:23:09.:23:12.

look at the number of people on social media, there are more from

:23:13.:23:17.

the yes campaign than the no site. We should all be condemning attacks,

:23:18.:23:23.

from whatever quarter they come This seemed to be connected to the

:23:24.:23:30.

office of the First Minister. What is the evidence for that? There was

:23:31.:23:34.

an e-mail from one of the... I understand about that, but it did

:23:35.:23:39.

not use vile words. It did not, but it repeated the same mistake as on

:23:40.:23:48.

the website. We should be clear that we need to condemn these attacks,

:23:49.:23:53.

but it is not just the water works, it is taking action. There was an

:23:54.:23:58.

IpsosMORI poll this week which was varying testing. It showed the

:23:59.:24:03.

population as a whole, farmer people think that Yes Scotland is running

:24:04.:24:06.

an effective campaign as against Better Together. It is a undecided

:24:07.:24:14.

voters think this by a majority of four 21. Some people are worried

:24:15.:24:21.

about of the campaign. JK Rowling, Scotland's most successful author of

:24:22.:24:26.

all time. She gives ?1 million to the Better Together campaign. She

:24:27.:24:30.

then faces some of the most incredible abuse. I know what it is

:24:31.:24:38.

like because I have had some myself. Traitor, Quisling. I cannot use some

:24:39.:24:44.

of the words, it is Sunday morning. Why does Scottish Nationalists

:24:45.:24:47.

culture have such a revolting fringe? JK Rowling is entitled to

:24:48.:24:53.

our views and it is unacceptable if people say offensive things about

:24:54.:24:55.

her or anyone else who voices and opinion in this debate. Who are

:24:56.:25:01.

obese people? When you look at the accounts of some of the people who

:25:02.:25:04.

were posting these things about JK Rowling, they were using the same

:25:05.:25:10.

sort of language about film stars and football stars. This was just

:25:11.:25:17.

part of their language on Twitter. How often has Alex Salmond condemned

:25:18.:25:21.

the cyber nationalists? Very often. Everyone in the campaign hands. By

:25:22.:25:28.

common consent, Yes Scotland is running a thoroughly positive

:25:29.:25:30.

campaign, much more positive than Better Together. Jackie Baillie it

:25:31.:25:36.

hardly helps matters when Alistair Darling, who runs your campaign

:25:37.:25:42.

compares Alex Salmond to Kim Jong Il and North Korea. That hardly

:25:43.:25:46.

elevates the debate? I think we need to elevate the debate. There are

:25:47.:25:51.

less than a hundred days to go. It is a massive decision. We need to

:25:52.:26:00.

elevate the debate beyond attacks. I think there is much more that Yes

:26:01.:26:04.

Scotland and the SNP can do. You have made that point. Why are you

:26:05.:26:13.

running a campaign based on fear? The codename of your campaign is

:26:14.:26:18.

even project fear. It is threats. You cannot have the pound, there

:26:19.:26:23.

will be no shipbuilding. You will be flooded by immigrants. Why are you

:26:24.:26:28.

so negative? I am not negative at all and neither is the campaign The

:26:29.:26:33.

campaign has asked questions and I think it is legitimate to ask

:26:34.:26:36.

questions of the people proposing such a fundamental change. People

:26:37.:26:40.

care about the economy, their jobs, their families. What would happen to

:26:41.:26:45.

them if they leave the rest of the United Kingdom. I think it is

:26:46.:26:51.

legitimate to ask questions. I refuse to be asked of

:26:52.:26:56.

scaremongering. People deserve answers. The yes campaign is equally

:26:57.:27:02.

guilty of some of the most outrageous scaremongering. Maybe you

:27:03.:27:10.

are both scaremongering. Blair Jenkins, the First Minister said of

:27:11.:27:15.

the cyber nationalists, that they are just Daft folk, as if they were

:27:16.:27:21.

mischievous little children. It is worse than that. When you look at

:27:22.:27:25.

what they say, they are twisted perhaps even evil minds. I would not

:27:26.:27:32.

disagree with his comments, but they are directed at just a small number

:27:33.:27:36.

of people. The story of this campaign is not the story of what

:27:37.:27:40.

people are saying on Twitter. Around Scotland, lots of people are getting

:27:41.:27:44.

engaged in debate to have been tuned out of the political process. Today,

:27:45.:27:52.

we have 47% support for the yes campaign. The movement in the

:27:53.:27:56.

campaign is towards yes. People know we have a better campaign, a vision

:27:57.:28:02.

for Scotland. The latest poll of polls does not show that. Both

:28:03.:28:07.

sides, you always take the opinion polls that show you in the best

:28:08.:28:12.

light. All politicians do that. Jackie Baillie, your campaign is not

:28:13.:28:16.

just negative, it is patronising. You make dubious claims that Scots

:28:17.:28:24.

would be ?1400 better off by staying in the union, and then you say that

:28:25.:28:32.

the kids use the money to scoff 280 hotdogs at the Edinburgh Festival.

:28:33.:28:34.

The fate of the nation is in your hands and that is the best you can

:28:35.:28:40.

do? I think you will find that the campaign is something that we are

:28:41.:28:47.

taking the message to people. Then why are you talking about hotdogs? I

:28:48.:28:53.

do not. The campaign did. We are taking a positive message to people

:28:54.:28:56.

across Scotland about the benefits of the United Kingdom. We believe we

:28:57.:29:01.

are stronger and more secure and more stable, being part of that

:29:02.:29:04.

family of nations that is more stable, being part of that

:29:05.:29:08.

Kingdom. At the same time, we have the strange and power over things

:29:09.:29:11.

like education and transport. I the strange and power over things

:29:12.:29:17.

understand that. I am not doing the issues today, I am talking about the

:29:18.:29:21.

tone of the campaign. I have one very important question. Who would

:29:22.:29:26.

you supporting last night in the England-Italy match? I was not

:29:27.:29:32.

watching the game. I would be delighted to see England do well in

:29:33.:29:37.

this tournament. I have Argentina in the office sweepstake. I have to

:29:38.:29:42.

keep some attention on them, but I would be delighted to seeing Clint

:29:43.:29:46.

do well. That is because you think it will help your campaign. It will

:29:47.:29:53.

annoy the Scots. Jackie Baillie I was supporting England. I was also

:29:54.:29:55.

supporting Portugal. Now most of you probably missed last

:29:56.:30:01.

night's football match between England and Italy because

:30:02.:30:04.

you wanted to get an early night and England lost

:30:05.:30:07.

despite a plucky effort, I'm told. But even Westminster is

:30:08.:30:11.

in the grip of World Cup fever and with speculation

:30:12.:30:14.

about the fitness of each political party's team we sent Adam out to

:30:15.:30:16.

tackle some of the big players. Well, this is

:30:17.:30:23.

the closest I'll get to Rio. This year everybody seems to have

:30:24.:30:36.

gone a bit mad Belize, football stickers. Let's see who I will get.

:30:37.:30:41.

Oh, the suspense -- a bit mad for these. George Osborne? That is

:30:42.:30:46.

because we leapt on the bandwagon and made Alan political stickers.

:30:47.:30:50.

They're hotter than a Brazilian barbecue.

:30:51.:30:51.

And at Westminster they're turning into collector?s items.

:30:52.:30:53.

Sunday politics political stickers. We have one of you, Norman. Would

:30:54.:31:04.

you like it? Do you want to start collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:05.:31:05.

packet? collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:06.:31:06.

Thank you. No album, I'm afraid collecting, Bob? Would you like a

:31:07.:31:14.

Thank you. No album, I've got Michael Gove, next to to Reza, and

:31:15.:31:19.

two of the Prime Minister. -- next to Theresa. I am sure Michael has

:31:20.:31:26.

Theresa in her stick around, and vice versa.

:31:27.:31:28.

These Tory ones are proving very popular

:31:29.:31:30.

since she fell out with him out how to handle extremism in schools.

:31:31.:31:33.

And there's been open speculation about him taking on him in

:31:34.:31:36.

Then there are rumours of a reshuffle of the whole Tory album.

:31:37.:31:44.

Do you think there will be any swapping in the Tory leadership

:31:45.:31:54.

soon? Who knows? David Cameron has also got to replace the EU

:31:55.:31:57.

commissioner, Cathy Ashton, who is standing down.

:31:58.:31:58.

Does he go with the favourite the former health secretary

:31:59.:32:01.

Or the grassroots choice, Martin Callanan, the Tories old

:32:02.:32:04.

Or does he rehabilitate Andrew Mitchell after Plebgate?

:32:05.:32:08.

Do you fancy being European Commissioner? I would rather be

:32:09.:32:22.

spending the money on the world s poor and spending it well. Glad to

:32:23.:32:25.

hear it. Happy collecting. Right, there must be some Labour

:32:26.:32:27.

stickers out there. You don't want to swap Ed Balls any

:32:28.:32:35.

of the others? Can't I keep them all? This is almost the perfect

:32:36.:32:38.

team. There have been grumblings

:32:39.:32:38.

about the fitness of the Shadow And Ed Miliband's got a kicking

:32:39.:32:42.

in Liverpool after posing I'm told grown men are meeting up

:32:43.:32:46.

in pubs for sticker swaps - With Danny Finkelstein -

:32:47.:32:57.

Tory peer and Times columnist, He would be the card I would not

:32:58.:33:11.

want to trade. Do people want to trade him in? I don't think anybody

:33:12.:33:15.

wants to trade him in at the moment. He is the best person to lead the

:33:16.:33:19.

Labour party and will lead us into the next election. There's been a

:33:20.:33:23.

lot about Michael Gove, and he's very combative. That's been a huge

:33:24.:33:26.

strength as an education Secretary, despite the fact it's brought in

:33:27.:33:29.

trouble. I would think the prime minister would tell him not to get

:33:30.:33:32.

himself into peripheral battles at the moment but stick to what has

:33:33.:33:38.

been successful. I haven't got Nick Clegg, but I got me. Controversy

:33:39.:33:45.

amongst collectors of Lib Dems. I need to give away me in return for

:33:46.:33:48.

Nick Clegg. That would be far better. There you are.

:33:49.:33:52.

Some local parties are holding meetings about his leadership,

:33:53.:33:55.

but at one in Cambridge this week they voted to stick with him.

:33:56.:33:59.

You have got a Euro Commissioner. Why don't I swap, I will swap Ed

:34:00.:34:09.

Miliband for Tim Farren. Can I do that? What is the significance of

:34:10.:34:14.

that? Very significant. Happy collecting.

:34:15.:34:17.

These beauties are popping up everywhere, but sadly they won't

:34:18.:34:20.

Adam is still doing the samba around Westminster as I speak.

:34:21.:34:30.

I'm joined by three journalists who've been

:34:31.:34:32.

furiously swapping stickers throughout the show, they certainly

:34:33.:34:34.

weren't allowed to stay up to watch the football, it's Nick Watt,

:34:35.:34:37.

We will talk about Labour after the break, and I want to concentrate on

:34:38.:34:45.

the Tories, but the moment, Nick, senior Tories are saying privately

:34:46.:34:50.

that they might win next May. They are beginning to dream the dream. So

:34:51.:34:57.

why are they doing all this jockeying? I think the jockeying for

:34:58.:35:04.

the leadership is about a year old. What stoped it up was when Theresa

:35:05.:35:11.

gave a speech to the conference and people said she was doing it just in

:35:12.:35:14.

case, when things were not looking too good. She is not on manoeuvres.

:35:15.:35:19.

I think it was a policy row that drove the differences with Michael

:35:20.:35:23.

Gove. But Michael Gove is on manoeuvres, and he is trying to

:35:24.:35:26.

protect George Osborne from, he believes, a serious threat from

:35:27.:35:33.

Boris Johnson and possibly Theresa. It is quite self-indulgent when you

:35:34.:35:36.

are a couple of points behind, the economy is going your way, to be

:35:37.:35:39.

involved in this sort of stuff. Extraordinary. It shows the toxic

:35:40.:35:51.

disease that gnaws at the entrails of the Tory party, and Cameron is

:35:52.:35:55.

their great asset. He is more popular than the party, he bridges

:35:56.:36:00.

the gap is, and he has an extraordinary dissemble and some

:36:01.:36:02.

pretending to be this moderate while never the lens -- nevertheless

:36:03.:36:06.

leading the most far right wing government we have had since the

:36:07.:36:09.

war, and that has been a brilliant piece of political Charente and they

:36:10.:36:14.

would be crazy to get rid of it -- political Charente.

:36:15.:36:16.

piece of political Charente and they would be crazy to get rid of it --

:36:17.:36:20.

charades. Does this rumble on? I have an unfashionable view as there

:36:21.:36:23.

aren't half as many leadership plots taking place in Westminster as we

:36:24.:36:29.

assume, and the willingness to read strategic calculation into anything

:36:30.:36:32.

that takes place comes from people watching I Claudius or house of

:36:33.:36:38.

cards. That hasn't been off -- on for years. I needed a reference from

:36:39.:36:43.

your time. I needed something. Maybe brief encounter? It's a stylised

:36:44.:36:49.

view of how politics works, and so much more in life is about

:36:50.:36:53.

randomness and mistakes. Boris Johnson, Theresa May, Michael Gove

:36:54.:36:59.

as George Osborne's man on earth, they are positioning themselves --

:37:00.:37:05.

Janan wrote an eloquent comment this week about this, but there are

:37:06.:37:11.

certain realities that. Michael Gove had that famous dinner with Rupert

:37:12.:37:14.

Murdoch a few weeks ago in which he said that you must not make Boris

:37:15.:37:17.

Johnson leader of the Conservative party, George Osborne is my man

:37:18.:37:22.

Theresa May set out her credo two years ago and people on her team

:37:23.:37:25.

were saying that she was doing it just in case. People are out there

:37:26.:37:29.

and are thinking of the future, but I do think Janan is right. In the

:37:30.:37:34.

village, in the thick of it mindset, you can get a bit carried away and

:37:35.:37:41.

you can be a bit in the famous. That is before your era. He died. What

:37:42.:37:49.

did he mean by it. You can get a bit carried away by it. I will have

:37:50.:37:51.

words with you during the break It's just gone 11.35, you're

:37:52.:37:55.

watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:37:56.:37:57.

in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, we'll

:37:58.:38:00.

be talking about Ed Miliband's 1st, let's meet our guests for

:38:01.:38:43.

today. 1 has been dubbed by the Daily Mail as the flag beardr for

:38:44.:38:47.

the West. That's the Conservative MP Liam Fox. The other is an assistant

:38:48.:38:51.

Mayor of Bristol 's Green P`rty as Hoyt. Liam, as we have you `nd you

:38:52.:38:57.

are a former Defence Secret`ry, let's talk about Iraq.

:38:58.:39:29.

unfold there. We should nevdr have got involved in the first place

:39:30.:39:31.

should we? I don't think wh`t we would have done would necessarily

:39:32.:39:34.

have changed what is happenhng. This has long been a cauldron for the

:39:35.:39:37.

dispute between the Shia and Sunni populations in that part of the

:39:38.:39:40.

world. The policy now has to be to defeat the Isis insurrection. It

:39:41.:39:43.

will be bloody come what max, and the second thing is to try to not

:39:44.:39:47.

have the involvement of othdr regional powers and certainly not

:39:48.:39:49.

having Iran or Turkey drawn in. When you say we, should we be involved?

:39:50.:39:53.

It depends what the Iraqi government is looking for. They may well ask

:39:54.:39:56.

for airpower, more specialised airpower, perhaps. That will

:39:57.:39:58.

primarily be from the US and it will be a big debate in the US and about

:39:59.:40:02.

whether the Americans should have tried harder to get a stated forces

:40:03.:40:05.

agreement with Iraq and if they had stayed and provided mentoring, would

:40:06.:40:08.

we have seen the collapse of Iraqi forces in the central part of the

:40:09.:40:11.

country? Gus, I know the Grdens never wanted a war but now that we

:40:12.:40:14.

are in a position where we `re, should Britain offer assist`nce

:40:15.:40:18.

mayor of Bristol, I'm tied tp with local communities. As far as the

:40:19.:40:21.

Greens are concerned, we should never have got involved. As Liam

:40:22.:40:24.

said, there have been probldms there for millennia but by getting

:40:25.:40:26.

involved we put in a lot of sticks under that cauldron. Thank xou. The

:40:27.:40:29.

question of how to harvest the Bristol Channel's mighty tidal range

:40:30.:40:32.

is almost as old as King Canute Last year the idea of a Sevdrn

:40:33.:40:35.

barrage was scotched by MPs who deemed it too expensive and too

:40:36.:40:39.

damaging to the environment, but the tide has now turned in favotr of a

:40:40.:40:42.

new solution, a number of mini`barrages called lagoons. With

:40:43.:40:47.

Bradley has donned her lifejacket and taken herself into the channel

:40:48.:40:53.

to investigate. Out here in the Bristol Channel, you can fedl the

:40:54.:40:56.

energy of the tides. Where we are at the moment is where the tidd is

:40:57.:41:00.

turning, getting to its peak and is ready to go back out. You c`n see

:41:01.:41:03.

why people want to harness the power of that tide. Now the government's

:41:04.:41:08.

said we will not get a barr`ge from the Somerset coast over to Wales,

:41:09.:41:12.

all eyes have turned to a ndw technology ` tidal lagoons.

:41:13.:41:18.

So how do they work? Turbinds are housed in a concrete block which is

:41:19.:41:22.

set in a wall surrounding the lagoon. As the tide rushes hn and

:41:23.:41:26.

out, it drives the turbines, producing electricity four times a

:41:27.:41:30.

day. This company in Cheltenham wants to build the first tidal

:41:31.:41:35.

lagoon in the world in Wales. This is a close`up within Swanse` Bay.

:41:36.:41:40.

Here we have Swansea docks `nd the tidal lagoon that will extend out

:41:41.:41:46.

into the bay six miles around and back again. There are a number of

:41:47.:41:49.

locations around the UK appropriate for tidal lagoons, including the

:41:50.:41:55.

Severn Estuary, around the Welsh coast, and the north`west of

:41:56.:41:59.

England, and it is our intention to follow Swansea Bay with a sdries of

:42:00.:42:03.

large`scale tidal lagoons that could deliver power to the UK. Thdy're

:42:04.:42:08.

hoping these plans will havd government sign`off next ye`r and

:42:09.:42:11.

want the Swansea lagoon to be producing power by 2018, but what

:42:12.:42:17.

about on the English side of the Channel? You can see North Hill

:42:18.:42:22.

then out in an arc, a crescdnt out to sea, and all the way back. This

:42:23.:42:36.

This man leads a group of Mhnehead businessmen with ambitious plans.

:42:37.:42:39.

Not only do they want to produce power for half a million holes, but

:42:40.:42:42.

they hope a lagoon would regenerate the whole area. By building the

:42:43.:42:45.

power, that will give us thd means to afford a ferry dock. We `re even

:42:46.:42:50.

talking about putting a wavd maker in here because the local youth

:42:51.:42:54.

would love to have something else they could do here. This cotld well

:42:55.:43:01.

become the Cannes of the sotth`west. Transforming West Somerset hnto the

:43:02.:43:05.

South of France may be a long shot. But local councils on both sides of

:43:06.:43:10.

the Channel are also talking about how they can encourage tidal lagoons

:43:11.:43:14.

and make the area a world ldader in technology. This is exactly what

:43:15.:43:20.

local authorities should be doing, this is catching the zeitgehst in

:43:21.:43:25.

terms of where local authorhties were in Victorian times, in terms of

:43:26.:43:28.

getting up, getting on, driving the economic government. The cotncils

:43:29.:43:32.

are putting in a bid for ?3 million of public money to get their lagoon

:43:33.:43:36.

dreams going. It seems likely the world's first tidal lagoon will be

:43:37.:43:42.

built in Swansea Bay, but hdre in Minehead Bay could well be the

:43:43.:43:46.

second. The race is now on to see who will build it. Joining ts from

:43:47.:43:51.

across the water in Swansea is the Labour MP Peter Hain. You'vd long

:43:52.:43:56.

been a champion of the barr`ge. That's deemed to be dead in the

:43:57.:44:06.

water now. Have lagoons stolen your thunder?

:44:07.:44:07.

still very much a prospect for the future. I support the Swansda Bay

:44:08.:44:14.

tidal lagoon but you would need 50 of them, 50, cluttering up the whole

:44:15.:44:18.

of the Severn Estuary, to ddvelop the equivalent power to the Severn

:44:19.:44:21.

barrage, which itself is thd equivalent of two or three nuclear

:44:22.:44:24.

power stations. Lagoons are much more expensive, the electricity

:44:25.:44:29.

generated is as much as thrde times more expensive at a time of sky high

:44:30.:44:35.

electricity prices, than thd barrage which produces by far the cheapest

:44:36.:44:38.

electricity of anything, gas, nuclear, the lot, and so for me the

:44:39.:44:44.

Severn barrage, as well as offering flood protection to 90,000

:44:45.:44:48.

properties, and we know what has happened in Somerset, 90,000

:44:49.:44:58.

properties and 500 square kilometres, is a no`brainer.

:44:59.:45:02.

Let's bring in our guests. Gus, the barrage would be bold, big `nd would

:45:03.:45:06.

supply a lot of electricity. Why muck about with the small l`goons

:45:07.:45:13.

It would certainly be big and bold and

:45:14.:45:22.

that is part of the problem. If you focus on the tidal lagoons xou could

:45:23.:45:26.

have them where they are most effective.

:45:27.:45:27.

If we are going to have energy sovereignty for the UK, we have to

:45:28.:45:31.

think about how we deliver ht, so it is not just about one big thdal

:45:32.:45:34.

barrage, we have to look at offshore and onshore wind, solar, all the

:45:35.:45:37.

aspects together. The barrage doesn't stack up economically or

:45:38.:45:46.

environmentally. That is not true. One of the reasons I was ag`inst the

:45:47.:45:50.

barrage was the potential dhsruption of Royal Portbury Dock and @vonmouth

:45:51.:45:52.

and the threat to jobs in the area. The uncertainty that would be caused

:45:53.:45:56.

by that would cause traffic to go elsewhere to other ports, so that

:45:57.:45:59.

economic reason was my prim`ry reason for objecting to it, but I

:46:00.:46:02.

think environmentally the c`se has not been made for the barrage. I

:46:03.:46:04.

think there was a strong case for using tidal power using the natural

:46:05.:46:08.

resource we have in this part of the country to help generate eldctricity

:46:09.:46:12.

and to contribute to our arda independence. Peter Hain, h`ve they

:46:13.:46:20.

convinced you? No, the Bristol Port would get many more jobs out of the

:46:21.:46:23.

Severn barrage. It is the only project by far that can harness this

:46:24.:46:30.

enormous clean natural energy, and lagoons can complement it btt you

:46:31.:46:32.

would literally fill the whole estuary with around 50 of them,

:46:33.:46:35.

which would be a blockage to shipping. The barrage has locks that

:46:36.:46:38.

allow shipping through to Bristol. And frankly, the guy from the

:46:39.:46:41.

Greens, either you believe hn fighting climate change and you

:46:42.:46:44.

believe in green energy, and there is nothing to compare with the

:46:45.:46:58.

Severn barrage, or you don't. If I may come back on that one, tidal

:46:59.:47:01.

lagoons would create many jobs for the region, construction jobs, and

:47:02.:47:04.

as far as energy sovereigntx goes it is crucial we pursue this, which is

:47:05.:47:07.

why we have started work with Cardiff about the Severn region But

:47:08.:47:10.

this is a project that you `pprove of, as Greens. You approve of

:47:11.:47:13.

getting something done to produce more electricity. That is a

:47:14.:47:18.

breakthrough, isn't it? I would hope they do, they are supposed to

:47:19.:47:21.

believe in clean energy and the barrage is by far the biggest

:47:22.:47:24.

renewable energy project in the world so far. The idea that we are

:47:25.:47:27.

turning our back on it, and it isn't over, there are still plans going

:47:28.:47:33.

ahead, and I am hopeful that after the next election we may buhld more,

:47:34.:47:38.

the idea we would turn our back on it for very small schemes that would

:47:39.:47:45.

not produce a fraction of the power... And would you block access

:47:46.:47:53.

No, because locks allow the shipping to go

:47:54.:47:59.

through without any charge, that is a promise to Bristol Port. Liam Fox,

:48:00.:48:06.

does that solve that problel? It is an idea, we have never even seen

:48:07.:48:09.

concrete plans, we have not seen the technology proven and the idea there

:48:10.:48:12.

might be disruption during construction for a port that has to

:48:13.:48:15.

compete with other ports for business is not on. The ide` of the

:48:16.:48:18.

lagoons, I think, is a senshble thing to look at because it does

:48:19.:48:21.

look as though you can satisfy most demand, energy production and

:48:22.:48:27.

us. For all the Conservativds' tough talk on immigration, they sdem

:48:28.:48:38.

hopelessly adrift with their promises. David Cameron wanted to

:48:39.:48:40.

cut net migration to tens of thousands, but the latest fhgures

:48:41.:48:43.

show it is up to over 200,000. Some of his own MPs, including Lham Fox,

:48:44.:48:48.

suggested a return to tightdr border controls with our European

:48:49.:48:52.

neighbours. The free movement of goods, services, capital and people

:48:53.:49:00.

` this quartet are the fund`mental freedoms that prop up Europd's

:49:01.:49:05.

single market. But after a wave of euroscepticism in May's elections,

:49:06.:49:10.

it's the free movement of pdople now coming under intense pressure. UKIP

:49:11.:49:16.

is riding high on a wave of public concern over immigration. A flavour

:49:17.:49:28.

as to why among the jobseekdrs in Bristol. I put job applicathons in,

:49:29.:49:31.

there's never anything back. It makes it harder because all the

:49:32.:49:34.

people coming through immigration and that makes it tougher. H think

:49:35.:49:37.

it is keeping rates of pay down in a lot of ways because people `re

:49:38.:49:46.

prepared to work for a lower rate of pay. Just, it feels like thdy are

:49:47.:49:50.

taking all our jobs and thex get all the pay. The number of Europeans

:49:51.:49:53.

coming to work in Britain is on the rise. It was 95,000 in 2012 but

:49:54.:49:57.

increased to 125,000 last ydar, up 31%. But while more people `re

:49:58.:50:00.

arriving from the continent, unemployment in the West continues

:50:01.:50:04.

to fall. Between April and Lay, the numbers out of work dropped by %,

:50:05.:50:10.

the lowest level since 2008. That numbers game is being played out in

:50:11.:50:16.

the production line of this bakery. These treats are selling like hot

:50:17.:50:22.

cakes, so they are expanding. The local jobs market doesn't always

:50:23.:50:31.

meet firms' needs. Some Polhsh people we recently recruited, they

:50:32.:50:33.

were positive about the opportunities. They wanted long`term

:50:34.:50:37.

full`time work and were prepared to put themselves out a little bit to

:50:38.:50:40.

come and find that. We interviewed a person a couple of weeks ago who

:50:41.:50:45.

sadly felt he wasn't able to take the job because it interferdd with

:50:46.:50:49.

his salsa classes. I'm not saying that necessarily epitomises the

:50:50.:50:53.

difference in nationality, H'm sure Poles do salsa as well, but it is

:50:54.:51:07.

certainly something that as employers, we notice.

:51:08.:51:23.

Businesses want to keep hard`working Europeans in the employment mix but

:51:24.:51:26.

growing pressure on housing and transport, the Prime Ministdr is

:51:27.:51:29.

being urged by his backbenchers to bring back border control as he

:51:30.:51:33.

I believe the UK has been a great beneficiary of the free movdment of

:51:34.:51:36.

workers and interestingly, the UK welfare budget has also been a

:51:37.:51:39.

beneficiary of labour migration and the migrant workers actuallx

:51:40.:51:41.

contribute more to the welf`re budget of the UK than what they take

:51:42.:51:44.

out, so if anyone, including the Prime Minister, makes proposals

:51:45.:51:50.

these aspects could be should be taken into account.

:51:51.:52:05.

This car wash on the outskirts of Bath is one of a number across the

:52:06.:52:09.

Romanians. They say they ard doing the jobs British workers silply

:52:10.:52:12.

don't want to, but now, with politicians starting to talk tough

:52:13.:52:15.

on immigration within the ET, the question is, just how tough should

:52:16.:52:17.

they be? We'll hear from Stdve Wood, the chairman of UKIP in Bristol in

:52:18.:52:21.

just a moment as he has dropped in to see us, but first, let's talk to

:52:22.:52:25.

Liam Fox about this, becausd you have plans for proposals th`t would

:52:26.:52:28.

see migration from the rest of the EU not stopped but certainlx

:52:29.:52:36.

I'd like to see immigration in general reduced and I thhnk that

:52:37.:52:45.

we know from our demographics as a country, we will require sole

:52:46.:52:48.

immigration into the UK. My problem with this issue is that we have

:52:49.:52:51.

always focus on the numbers and not who is coming into the country, and

:52:52.:52:55.

I think I would like to see an immigration policy in the UK that

:52:56.:52:58.

looks a lot more like the Atstralian points system that said, thdse are

:52:59.:53:01.

the skills we require in ond time. If you have the skills, you are

:53:02.:53:04.

welcome in our country. If xou're going to generate wealth in our

:53:05.:53:07.

country, you are welcome. If you're going to be consuming the wdalth in

:53:08.:53:10.

our country, you are not, so I think that is a fair proposal.

:53:11.:53:14.

You would need substantial baraka seek to work that out, in this case

:53:15.:53:20.

a card to work here, and in return if you have kids who want to go and

:53:21.:53:25.

work in Germany or Italy, they would have to go through a similar

:53:26.:53:31.

process. It depends what those countries want. What was cldar from

:53:32.:53:35.

the European elections is that citizens across Europe were a clear

:53:36.:53:39.

message that they regarded the control of borders as being totemic

:53:40.:53:46.

in the issue of sovereignty, and I think the political leaders in

:53:47.:53:50.

Europe need to listen to thd people. If he gets his way and that happened

:53:51.:53:55.

in renegotiations with the rest of the U, you are out of busindss,

:53:56.:54:00.

aren't you? Not at all. What Doctor Fox is saying is fantastic news but

:54:01.:54:04.

it is something we have been saying for the last 5 or 6 years. We need

:54:05.:54:12.

an Austrian `based systems, at the moment the EU discriminates against

:54:13.:54:15.

everyone from outside Europd because if you are from about Europd you get

:54:16.:54:21.

tougher controls. But there would be no need to leave the EU if the

:54:22.:54:24.

movement of people was restricted as Liam Fox is suggesting. As long as

:54:25.:54:30.

we are within the EU we will have free movement of people, and while

:54:31.:54:35.

Liam's values are welcome, xou have to admit as long as we stay in the

:54:36.:54:39.

EU we will not be able to h`ve tighter immigration. As long as we

:54:40.:54:45.

stay in the EU as it is currently constructive, and I think the

:54:46.:54:49.

message from across Europe hn the recent elections is that thd people

:54:50.:54:51.

of Europe want a different direction. I think what will be

:54:52.:54:56.

crucial is how European leaders react to it, but depressingly it

:54:57.:55:02.

looks like they intend to continue as though nothing has happened, and

:55:03.:55:06.

the inevitable consequence hs that every time voters are asked in the

:55:07.:55:09.

future about the direction of Europe, they will start givhng a

:55:10.:55:14.

bloody nose to bureaucrats who seem intent on ignoring their vohce.

:55:15.:55:18.

Goss, you believe in the frde movement of people? Yes, I think we

:55:19.:55:23.

are focusing on the wrong issues. We should be talking about decdnt, good

:55:24.:55:28.

jobs. We saw on the clip people in Bristol, I think the UK Govdrnment

:55:29.:55:33.

is letting those people down by not abiding adequate jobs. People in

:55:34.:55:40.

Bristol were saying we are competing against people in Europe for those

:55:41.:55:46.

jobs. It is so their jobs there in the 1st place, that is what we have

:55:47.:55:51.

to look at. That is by building a dream business party, trainhng of

:55:52.:55:57.

local people and providing apprenticeships, that is wh`t we

:55:58.:56:02.

need to be focusing on. I h`ve my car washed in 1 of those car washes

:56:03.:56:06.

and the guys, they are alwaxs European, they work incredibly hard,

:56:07.:56:13.

they pay their taxes, they do work which would be difficult to get

:56:14.:56:16.

employees here to do, what hs not to like? I am not against people coming

:56:17.:56:22.

to work in this country as long as there are jobs to be done, `nd I

:56:23.:56:26.

think that is a fair and re`sonable policy. Other countries, Canada and

:56:27.:56:33.

Australia run policies like that, and no 1 says they are unfahr.

:56:34.:56:38.

Governments don't provide jobs, governments provide the conditions,

:56:39.:56:42.

the private sector provides jobs, and in our region we are seding a

:56:43.:56:47.

big hole. People in your constituency who want to retire in

:56:48.:56:51.

Spain would have to do to a point system to live there, you would be

:56:52.:56:56.

happy to explain that to thdm. That would depend what the Spanish

:56:57.:56:59.

government do. They would do what they believe to be in their best

:57:00.:57:04.

interest, it may be in their best interest to have people in the UK

:57:05.:57:06.

taking their money and retiring there. We cannot treat Europe as 1

:57:07.:57:13.

side the soul. We need the people of those dates to do what they believe

:57:14.:57:18.

is in their own national interest. We will have to leave that debate.

:57:19.:57:22.

Thank you. Let's take a spin back through the political week.

:57:23.:57:32.

Gloucestershire County Council announced it has to make ?74 million

:57:33.:57:35.

worth of savings. The local authority warned social services

:57:36.:57:37.

must change and that care for the young and the elderly could be

:57:38.:57:40.

affected. Somerset road dubbed the highway to the sun, and somd sunny

:57:41.:57:43.

news this week. On a visit, the transport secretary Patrick

:57:44.:57:45.

McLoughlin pledged money to improve the traffic`clogged route btt kept

:57:46.:57:49.

tightlipped over how much. Plans for a second reservoir at Chedd`r were

:57:50.:57:53.

given the go`ahead by counchllors. Bristol Water says it is nedded to

:57:54.:57:57.

keep pace with growing demand. The scheme now needs sign`off from the

:57:58.:58:02.

water regulator. And the crdator of Harry Potter weighed into the debate

:58:03.:58:06.

about Scottish independence. JK Rowling, who was born in Yate,

:58:07.:58:09.

magicked up ?1 million to ghve to the campaign to keep them together.

:58:10.:58:15.

I think devolution has been fantastic for Scotland, I rdally do,

:58:16.:58:19.

and I suppose pragmatically I think we've got a great deal.

:58:20.:58:30.

Let's just pick up on those words from JK Rowling. Doctor Fox, you are

:58:31.:58:40.

a Scot. Is it any of our business what they do up their? Yes, because

:58:41.:58:47.

it affects the whole UK. I `m very much against Scottish indepdndence.

:58:48.:58:51.

I think as a nation we have each eat a great deal to gather and we still

:58:52.:58:56.

do achieve a great deal togdther. I think there is a human elemdnt that

:58:57.:59:00.

is perhaps not very often t`lked about. When the union was created,

:59:01.:59:07.

it was a union of treaty, now we are a union of people. We have great

:59:08.:59:11.

grandparents from all different parts of the UK, families work in

:59:12.:59:15.

different parts and I do not see white families should be torn apart.

:59:16.:59:20.

If people like JK rolling h`ve to spend ?1,000,000 for the better

:59:21.:59:25.

together campaign, it is not much of a relationship if we have to

:59:26.:59:30.

persuade Scots Tuesday. The Scottish Government is spending a grdat deal

:59:31.:59:34.

of money trying to persuade Scotland they would be better separating from

:59:35.:59:36.

the rest of the UK and donations like this are welcome to support a

:59:37.:59:41.

campaign that wants to hold a country together. The Greens are

:59:42.:59:45.

supporting independence, ardn't they? We believe all decision should

:59:46.:59:49.

be made at the lowest possible level, so if that is what the people

:59:50.:59:55.

decide... Even if it is dam`ging for England, because we would lose a

:59:56.:00:01.

lot? Yes, but we may be sealing our fate because we would be signing up

:00:02.:00:04.

for an eternal right`wing government, so in my own political

:00:05.:00:09.

interests, it technically flies against the wind. We would lose 50

:00:10.:00:18.

or so MPs in Scotland goes. I do not think Tony Blair would have won his

:00:19.:00:23.

majorities without a Scottish MP. I think it will be a no vote because

:00:24.:00:27.

ultimately people will refldct on the fact that as a country `nd as

:00:28.:00:31.

people, we are just better off United and I think when we look at

:00:32.:00:37.

the uncertainties, there ard so many economic and security uncertainties

:00:38.:00:41.

and they have not answered ` whole range of questions and I thhnk the

:00:42.:00:45.

public will choose the statts quo. We shall have to wait and sde. That

:00:46.:00:49.

is all we have time for this week. My thanks to Liam Fox and Gts Hoyt.

:00:50.:00:56.

If you are fed up with the football and fancy more politics, yot can

:00:57.:01:00.

catch this part of the show again on the BBC I player. As for thd World

:01:01.:01:05.

Cup, there is no competition, but now it

:01:06.:01:12.

There are big changes afoot in the EU following last month's

:01:13.:01:15.

European elections, not least who'll get the top job

:01:16.:01:17.

But behind the scenes the parties have

:01:18.:01:21.

also been jockeying for position as they try to form the big groups that

:01:22.:01:24.

And UKIP seems to have been struggling to keep its influence

:01:25.:01:28.

Here's Adam to explain how it all works.

:01:29.:01:37.

If you want your party to be a big cheese in the European Parliament,

:01:38.:01:43.

you need to form a political group. By doing this, the party gets more

:01:44.:01:48.

money, more positions on committees and even more speaking rights in the

:01:49.:01:53.

chamber. But the parliament's rules are strict. And to form a group you

:01:54.:01:58.

need a group of 25 MPs from at least seven different countries. For UKIP,

:01:59.:02:02.

the number of MEPs will not be a problem because they already have 24

:02:03.:02:07.

of their own, but the different nationalities are more of a

:02:08.:02:10.

challenge. Nigel Farage was not helped by the Tories stealing -

:02:11.:02:14.

stealing his former Danish and Finnish allies, and the pen pinching

:02:15.:02:22.

his Italian charms. Nigel needs a new charm and fast. He has already

:02:23.:02:28.

signed up Lithuania's order and justice, a free citizen from Prague,

:02:29.:02:33.

and the Dutchman from the reformed political party. The big signing was

:02:34.:02:41.

the 17 members of the Italian Beppe Griego's 5-star movement, but it

:02:42.:02:44.

leaves UKIP short of two more international powers, and with the

:02:45.:02:48.

clock ticking, it looks like his hopes resting on the Swedish

:02:49.:02:51.

Democrats and the Polish new right Congress. They both make their

:02:52.:02:53.

decisions next week. What is the latest? UKIP have enough

:02:54.:03:05.

MEPs with their pals, but they need seven countries, as I understand it.

:03:06.:03:10.

They are not there yet. They are wrapped five countries and need

:03:11.:03:13.

another two. UKIP are being quite buoyant and say they will be meeting

:03:14.:03:17.

MEPs from five countries next week and are pretty confident they will

:03:18.:03:21.

get those countries, but as Adam was saying, the problem UKIP have had is

:03:22.:03:25.

that the Conservatives have nicked two of the parties. That is why they

:03:26.:03:34.

have been struggling, but they say they are confident they will do it.

:03:35.:03:39.

Meanwhile, the Tories new best friends are the German Eurosceptic

:03:40.:03:44.

party, which has put Mrs Merkel s nose out of joint, but we don't

:03:45.:03:47.

quite know whether she really cares or not. I think Cameron has played

:03:48.:03:54.

his hand badly since he committed to pulling out of the EBP. And he

:03:55.:04:02.

should be in there with Angela Merkel and if he needs to make a

:04:03.:04:08.

major renegotiation, he needs to have the Germans onside. Instead

:04:09.:04:14.

there is a breakaway party and its like supporting UKIP. His party are

:04:15.:04:18.

supporting her worst enemy. It certainly causing him a lot of

:04:19.:04:23.

problems, and undermines his negotiating position, but isn't

:04:24.:04:28.

there an honesty that the centre-right group is explicitly

:04:29.:04:32.

Federalist, and the Tories are anything but, so they came out, and

:04:33.:04:36.

Labour are in the Socialist group, which is explicitly Federalist, and

:04:37.:04:43.

they are not Federalist either. If you want support and influence in

:04:44.:04:46.

Europe, you have to trade, and he hasn't done this well. The whole

:04:47.:04:50.

business with who will be the next president, he needs Angela Merkel's

:04:51.:04:55.

support. Without that, it won't happen. He should have been trading

:04:56.:05:00.

behind-the-scenes, but he has exposed himself in public, and if he

:05:01.:05:07.

doesn't win it looks uncertain, and he will be in a position where he

:05:08.:05:11.

has to go back to his own party and say they are not getting anywhere.

:05:12.:05:14.

That is dangerous and takes us closer to the Exeter, which I don't

:05:15.:05:21.

think would want. The danger for Mr Cameron is if it is the president of

:05:22.:05:26.

the commission, he will save you cannot stop a federalist becoming

:05:27.:05:29.

head of the European commission what chance do you have of

:05:30.:05:32.

repatriating lots of powers back to London. There are lots of Tory MPs

:05:33.:05:39.

dying to make the argument. My hunch is that he won't make it. There are

:05:40.:05:45.

too many countries opposed to his presidency and even the country

:05:46.:05:47.

notionally in favour of it, Germany, is failing in youth -- enthusiasm.

:05:48.:05:53.

Angela Merkel cannot be seen to give in to the Brits this. Her own side

:05:54.:05:59.

once it as well, though some reason the German media says it. When she

:06:00.:06:07.

tried to reach out and said to look at the other candidates, she got

:06:08.:06:11.

such abuse on the right wing press from her own country and party she

:06:12.:06:18.

had to retreat. Janan is right that there is opposition to Juncker, but

:06:19.:06:26.

as long as Cameron turns it into an argument about Britain and Europe,

:06:27.:06:30.

he will strengthen the hand of Juncker. Angela Merkel thinks

:06:31.:06:38.

Juncker is inappropriate. She did not like the process, which was a

:06:39.:06:41.

power grab by the European Parliament, but when David Cameron

:06:42.:06:44.

went to the council and said that if I don't get my way, we could leave

:06:45.:06:49.

the EU, that led to the backlash, most significantly from the SPD in

:06:50.:06:55.

Germany. As Tony Blair says, if only David Cameron had made the argument

:06:56.:07:00.

that Juncker is bad for Europe, then he would have found his natural

:07:01.:07:02.

allies would have felt more comfortable following behind. Enough

:07:03.:07:07.

Europe. I want to show you a picture. See what you think of this.

:07:08.:07:16.

When I saw that picture, I thought it was so ludicrous that it had to

:07:17.:07:22.

have been photo shop. Discuss. He is holding it with a certain disdain,

:07:23.:07:26.

looking a bit hangdog. A disastrous picture for Ed Miliband. His

:07:27.:07:31.

strength is authenticity, sincerity and cleverness. And he blows all of

:07:32.:07:37.

that. He was the one who took on Murdoch, very bravely and

:07:38.:07:42.

dangerously, and one, really. Now there he is supporting Murdoch's

:07:43.:07:46.

son. It's a big mistake, not just in Liverpool, where obviously they are

:07:47.:07:50.

particularly incensed. And then he apologises. Sort of apologises and

:07:51.:07:56.

understands why Liverpool feels upset. But it is a fundamental error

:07:57.:08:02.

and I hope he learns from this, that he must absolutely stay true to

:08:03.:08:04.

himself. That's all he's got going for him. Who do we blame? His

:08:05.:08:12.

advisers or himself? In the end himself. Nobody forced him to do it.

:08:13.:08:21.

On this one, he called it wrong It's a sign of the rather the bridal

:08:22.:08:29.

state of the Labour Party is that his candidates were vocal in

:08:30.:08:32.

attacking him doing this. It's a sign of how readable Ed Miliband is

:08:33.:08:39.

at Parliamentary level. I don't think you should have apologised.

:08:40.:08:45.

The mistake he made was associating himself with that newspaper. The

:08:46.:08:53.

mistake was the prior three years when he went too far as portraying

:08:54.:08:58.

the Murdoch empire beyond the pale. He made a case against phone hacking

:08:59.:09:01.

and offences in that regard without going as far as he did with the

:09:02.:09:07.

rhetoric. To do that, and then pose with the Sun newspaper, the

:09:08.:09:10.

juxtaposition is what did for him, not the mere fact of posing with it.

:09:11.:09:16.

Maybe he did not know what he was doing because we were told he

:09:17.:09:18.

doesn't read the British newspapers. It was football, and he

:09:19.:09:22.

has posed with the Sun newspaper before. Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg

:09:23.:09:29.

posed as well. But with the Sun newspaper and football, you tread

:09:30.:09:33.

carefully. That was the mistake You get the impression from the picture

:09:34.:09:36.

that he looks so uncomfortable that you wonder whether there was a full

:09:37.:09:39.

process of consultation that went on within his media operation, within

:09:40.:09:43.

his political operation. Was he fully aware of what would happen

:09:44.:09:46.

question what he looks so incredibly uncomfortable. But at the end of the

:09:47.:09:50.

day, leaders have to take responsibility. It is cultural as

:09:51.:09:56.

well. That picture says, I am down there with the football blokes and

:09:57.:09:59.

you think, you are not. That is not what people will vote for. Be

:10:00.:10:04.

yourself and don't pretend to be something else because it never

:10:05.:10:07.

works. But the polls suggest that the British voters don't yet see Ed

:10:08.:10:13.

Miliband as prime ministerial. The worst thing you can then do is get

:10:14.:10:17.

involved in stunts that are more likely to reinforce that idea than

:10:18.:10:21.

counter it. There was a precedent for it in the last parliament which

:10:22.:10:25.

was Gordon Brown's attempts to feign a populist touch. He did it by

:10:26.:10:31.

telling the contents of his iPod. The Arctic monkeys. It always jarred

:10:32.:10:38.

because he was trying too hard. Not uniquely guilty of, Ed Miliband all

:10:39.:10:41.

the other leaders have done it. At the moment he more vulnerable. Yes,

:10:42.:10:45.

and he is less popular than his party. Labour has quite a popular

:10:46.:10:51.

brand, in a resilient way, in a way they don't with the Tories, yet

:10:52.:10:55.

their leader is a personal problem. The pressure is on him to do stunts

:10:56.:11:00.

like this. Will there be a shadow cabinet reshuffle? Yes, we have to

:11:01.:11:04.

get the cabinet reshuffle out of the way first, and that might come next

:11:05.:11:07.

week, maybe by the time of the summer recess, but the first thing

:11:08.:11:11.

that the prime Minister do is work out who is the UK candidate for the

:11:12.:11:16.

European Commissioner. Is it not the case probably that Ed Balls is

:11:17.:11:21.

becoming semi-detached from the Ed Miliband project? I don't think

:11:22.:11:26.

entirely. Nothing gets agreed without both of the end are green.

:11:27.:11:30.

Ed Balls is controversial. He has great pluses and minuses and is a

:11:31.:11:34.

big figure. Labour doesn't have that many big figures. It's quite hard to

:11:35.:11:39.

think who would be a heavy hitter as a possible Chancellor. He is a

:11:40.:11:42.

convincing chancellor to the future, Love him. He has the heft -- love

:11:43.:11:49.

him or hate him. Any possibility Ed Balls could be moved as shadow

:11:50.:11:54.

chancellor? The timing is convenient because the Scottish referendum ends

:11:55.:11:57.

in the autumn and Alistair Darling becomes a free man, win or lose I

:11:58.:12:01.

don't think Ed Balls will be removed because moving him would be an

:12:02.:12:04.

admission that everything the Labour Party said about the economy to the

:12:05.:12:07.

preceding four years has been a mistake. And you can't do that nine

:12:08.:12:11.

months before a general election. You invite ridicule. But relations

:12:12.:12:16.

between Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are not great at the moment. The Ed

:12:17.:12:20.

Miliband team are very, very suspicious of this new love in

:12:21.:12:23.

between Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson. Mandelson likes to say

:12:24.:12:28.

that he spotted the Ed Balls talents in the original place and appointed

:12:29.:12:32.

him to the Gordon Brown team after the disaster of 1992. But things

:12:33.:12:37.

obviously went awry, and now Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson Avenue

:12:38.:12:43.

Rappaport, and that is with enormous suspicion -- they have a new

:12:44.:12:48.

Rappaport. With good reason because it's about policy. It's about the

:12:49.:12:51.

attitude towards business. Should they be out there saying they will

:12:52.:12:56.

get the tax dodgers, Starbucks, Vodafone, are we going to take on

:12:57.:13:01.

business in a big way? In a way that Ed Miliband has quite bravely said.

:13:02.:13:04.

On the other hand, Ed Balls and Peter Mandelson are saying, hang on,

:13:05.:13:09.

we only won in 1997 by being business friendly. Sorry to rush

:13:10.:13:10.

you. We are running out of time The Daily Politics will be back

:13:11.:13:12.

every day this week at midday, and I'll be back here next Sunday

:13:13.:13:16.

when I'll be joined by the shadow work and pensions

:13:17.:13:19.

secretary Rachel Reeves.Remember if it's Sunday,

:13:20.:13:21.

it's the Sunday Politics. Magnificent. The power base

:13:22.:13:53.

of medieval England. Charles' ceiling was a piece

:13:54.:13:59.

of breathtaking arrogance. You get a sense of the people

:14:00.:14:05.

who made the palaces. as I unlock the secrets

:14:06.:14:13.

of Britain's great palaces.

:14:14.:14:16.

Andrew Neil and David Garmston with the latest political news, interviews and debate. James Rubin, Mark Malloch-Brown and Bayan Rahman discuss the crisis in Iraq. Jackie Baillie from Better Together and Blair Jenkins from Yes Scotland debate the nature of the Scottish independence campaign.


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