Browse content similar to 22/06/2014. Check below for episodes and series from the same categories and more!
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Welfare reform is one of the government's most popular policies. | :00:36. | :00:42. | |
So Labour says it would be even tougher than the Tories. | :00:43. | :00:45. | |
We'll be asking the Shadow Work and Pensions Secretary if she's got | :00:46. | :00:49. | |
Even Labour supporters worry that Ed Miliband hasn't got what it takes | :00:50. | :00:55. | |
Labour grandees are increasingly vocal about their concerns. | :00:56. | :01:00. | |
Over 50% of Labour voters think they'd do better with a new leader. | :01:01. | :01:11. | |
And what of this leader? He's apparently "toxic" on the doorstep. | :01:12. | :01:16. | |
The polls say Nick Clegg's more unpopular than Gordon Brown, | :01:17. | :01:16. | |
In the West ` media blackout in your council chamber. We will | :01:17. | :01:28. | |
promised an electric car revolution, why so little progress? | :01:29. | :01:39. | |
Nick Watt, Helen Lewis and Janan Ganesh, the toxic tweeters | :01:40. | :01:46. | |
First, the deepening crisis in Iraq, where Sunni Islamists are now | :01:47. | :01:54. | |
largely in control of the Syrian-Iraq border, which means | :01:55. | :01:57. | |
they can now re-supply their forces in Iraq from their Syrian bases | :01:58. | :02:03. | |
Rather than moving on Baghdad, they are for the moment consolidating | :02:04. | :02:06. | |
their grip on the towns and cities they've already taken. | :02:07. | :02:08. | |
They also seem to be in effective control of Iraq's | :02:09. | :02:11. | |
biggest oil refinery, which supplies the capital. | :02:12. | :02:14. | |
And there are reports they might now have taken the power | :02:15. | :02:17. | |
Iraqi politicians are now admitting that ISIS, | :02:18. | :02:23. | |
the name of the Sunni insurgents, is better trained, better equipped and | :02:24. | :02:26. | |
far more battle-hardened than the US-trained Iraqi army fighting it. | :02:27. | :02:32. | |
Which leaves the fate of Baghdad increasingly in the hands | :02:33. | :02:34. | |
No good news coming out of there, Janan. No good news and no good | :02:35. | :02:52. | |
options either. The West's best strategy is to decide how much | :02:53. | :02:56. | |
support to give to the Iraqi government. The US is sending over | :02:57. | :03:01. | |
about 275 military personnel. Do they go further and contemplate | :03:02. | :03:05. | |
their support? General Petraeus argued against it as it might be | :03:06. | :03:11. | |
seen as the US serving as the force of Shia Iraqis -- continue their | :03:12. | :03:16. | |
support. Do we contemplate breaking up Iraq? It won't be easy. The Sunni | :03:17. | :03:26. | |
and Shia Muslim populations don t live in clearly bordered areas, but | :03:27. | :03:29. | |
in the longer term, do we deal with it in the same way we dealt with the | :03:30. | :03:33. | |
break-up of the Ottoman empire over 100 years ago? In the short-term and | :03:34. | :03:37. | |
long-term, completely confounding. Quite humiliating. If ISIS take | :03:38. | :03:45. | |
Baghdad I can't think of a bigger ignominy for foreign policy since | :03:46. | :03:51. | |
Suez. If Iraq is partitioned, it won't be up to us. It will be what | :03:52. | :03:54. | |
is happening because of what is happening on the ground. Everything | :03:55. | :04:00. | |
does point to partition, and that border, which ISIS control, between | :04:01. | :04:06. | |
Syria and Iraq, that has been there since it was drawn during the First | :04:07. | :04:12. | |
World War. That is gone as well An astonishingly humbling situation the | :04:13. | :04:15. | |
West, and you can see the Kurds in the North think this is a charge -- | :04:16. | :04:23. | |
chance for authority. They think this is the chance to get the | :04:24. | :04:26. | |
autonomy they felt they deserved a long time. Janan is right. We can't | :04:27. | :04:32. | |
do much in the long term, but we have to decide on the engagement. | :04:33. | :04:36. | |
And the other people wish you'd be talking turkey, because if there is | :04:37. | :04:39. | |
some blowback and the fighters come back, they are likely to come back | :04:40. | :04:44. | |
from Turkey. Where is Iran in all of this? There were reports last week | :04:45. | :04:49. | |
that the Revolutionary guard, the head of it, he was already in | :04:50. | :04:52. | |
Baghdad with 67 advisers and there might have been some brigades that | :04:53. | :04:57. | |
have gone there as well. Where are they? What has happened? I'm pretty | :04:58. | :05:02. | |
sure the Prime Minister of Iraq is putting more faith in Iran than the | :05:03. | :05:13. | |
White House and the British. I think they are running the show, in | :05:14. | :05:18. | |
technical terms. John Kerry is flying into Cairo this morning, and | :05:19. | :05:22. | |
what is his message? It is twofold. One is to Arab countries, do more to | :05:23. | :05:25. | |
encourage an inclusive government in Iraq, mainly Sunni Muslims in the | :05:26. | :05:31. | |
government, and the Arab Gulf states should stop funding insurgents in | :05:32. | :05:36. | |
Iraq. You think, Iraq, it's potentially going to break up, so | :05:37. | :05:41. | |
this sounds a bit late in the day and a bit weak. It gets | :05:42. | :05:44. | |
fundamentally to the problem, what can we do? Niall Ferguson has a big | :05:45. | :05:48. | |
piece in the Sunday Times asking if this is place where we cannot doing | :05:49. | :05:52. | |
anything. He doesn't want to do anything. By the way, that is what | :05:53. | :05:58. | |
most Americans think. That is what opinion polls are showing. You have | :05:59. | :06:02. | |
George Osborne Michael Gold who would love to get involved but they | :06:03. | :06:07. | |
cannot because of the vote in parliament on Syria lasted -- George | :06:08. | :06:09. | |
Osborne and Michael Gove. This government does not have the stomach | :06:10. | :06:14. | |
for military intervention. We will see how events unfold on the ground. | :06:15. | :06:18. | |
All parties are agreed that Britain's 60-year old multi-billion | :06:19. | :06:20. | |
The Tory side of the Coalition think their reforms are necessary | :06:21. | :06:25. | |
and popular, though they haven't always gone to time or to plan. | :06:26. | :06:28. | |
In the eight months she's had since she became Shadow Secretary of State | :06:29. | :06:32. | |
for Work and Pensions, Rachel Reeves has talked the talk about getting | :06:33. | :06:39. | |
people off benefits, into work and lowering the overall welfare bill. | :06:40. | :06:42. | |
her first interview in the job she threatened "We would | :06:43. | :06:44. | |
But Labour has opposed just about every change the Coalition | :06:45. | :06:48. | |
has proposed to cut the cost and change the culture of welfare. | :06:49. | :06:53. | |
Child benefit, housing benefit, the ?26,000 benefit cap - | :06:54. | :06:55. | |
They've been lukewarm about the government's flagship Universal | :06:56. | :07:02. | |
Credit scheme - which rolls six benefit payments into one - and | :07:03. | :07:05. | |
And Labour has set out only two modest welfare cuts. | :07:06. | :07:12. | |
This week, Labour said young people must have skills or be in training | :07:13. | :07:15. | |
That will save ?65 million, says Labour, though the cost | :07:16. | :07:21. | |
And cutting winter fuel payments for richer pensioners which will | :07:22. | :07:26. | |
Not a lot in a total welfare bill of around ?200 billion. | :07:27. | :07:34. | |
And with welfare cuts popular among even Labour voters, they will soon | :07:35. | :07:37. | |
have to start spelling out exactly what Labour welfare reform means. | :07:38. | :07:43. | |
Welcome. Good morning. Why do you want to be tougher than the Tories? | :07:44. | :07:56. | |
We want to be tough in getting the welfare bill down. Under this | :07:57. | :08:00. | |
government, the bill will be ?1 million more than the government set | :08:01. | :08:03. | |
out in 2010 and I don't think that is acceptable. We should try to | :08:04. | :08:08. | |
control the cost of Social Security. But the welfare bill under the next | :08:09. | :08:12. | |
Labour government will fall? It will be smaller when you end the first | :08:13. | :08:16. | |
parliament than when you started? We signed up to the capping welfare but | :08:17. | :08:21. | |
that doesn't see social security costs ball, it sees them go up in | :08:22. | :08:26. | |
line with with inflation or average earnings -- costs fall. So where | :08:27. | :08:32. | |
flair will rise? We have signed up to the cap -- welfare will rise We | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
have signed up to the cap. We will get the costs under control and they | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
haven't managed to achieve it. The government is spending ?13 billion | :08:42. | :08:43. | |
more on Social Security and the reason they are doing it is because | :08:44. | :08:49. | |
the minimum wage has not kept pace with the cost of living so people | :08:50. | :08:52. | |
are reliant on tax credits. They are not building houses and people are | :08:53. | :08:56. | |
relying on housing benefit. We have a record number of people on zero | :08:57. | :09:02. | |
hours contracts. I'm still not clear if you will cut welfare if you get | :09:03. | :09:06. | |
in power. Nobody is saying that the cost of welfare is going to fall. | :09:07. | :09:12. | |
The welfare cap sees that happening gradually. That is a Tory cap. And | :09:13. | :09:18. | |
you've accepted it. You're being the same as the Tories, not to. If they | :09:19. | :09:25. | |
had a welfare cap, they would have breached it in every year of the | :09:26. | :09:29. | |
parliament. Social Security will be higher than the government set out | :09:30. | :09:33. | |
because they failed to control it. You read the polls, and the party | :09:34. | :09:37. | |
does lots of its own polling, and you're scared of being seen as the | :09:38. | :09:40. | |
welfare party. You don't really believe all of this anti-welfare | :09:41. | :09:46. | |
stuff? We are the party of work not welfare. The Labour Party was set up | :09:47. | :09:49. | |
in the first place because we believe in the dignity of work and | :09:50. | :09:52. | |
we believe that work should pay wages can afford to live on. I make | :09:53. | :09:55. | |
no apologies for being the party of work. We are not the welfare party, | :09:56. | :10:00. | |
we are the party of work. Even your confidential strategy document | :10:01. | :10:05. | |
admits that voters don't trust you on immigration, the economy, this is | :10:06. | :10:08. | |
your own people, and welfare. You are not trusted on it. The most | :10:09. | :10:13. | |
recent poll showed Labour slightly ahead of the Conservative Party on | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
Social Security, probably because they have seen the incompetence and | :10:17. | :10:21. | |
chaos at the Department for Work and Pensions under Iain Duncan Smith. | :10:22. | :10:25. | |
Your own internal document means that the voters don't trust you on | :10:26. | :10:31. | |
welfare reform. That is why we have shown some of this tough things we | :10:32. | :10:34. | |
will do like the announcement that Ed Miliband made earlier this week, | :10:35. | :10:39. | |
that young people without basic qualifications won't be entitled to | :10:40. | :10:43. | |
just sign on for benefits, they have to sign up for training in order to | :10:44. | :10:46. | |
receive support. That is the right thing to do by that group of young | :10:47. | :10:49. | |
people, because they need skills to progress. We will, once that. - we | :10:50. | :10:59. | |
will, onto that. You say you criticise the government that it had | :11:00. | :11:05. | |
a cap and wouldn't have met it, but every money-saving welfare reform, | :11:06. | :11:08. | |
you voted against it. How is that being tougher? The most recent bout | :11:09. | :11:15. | |
was the cap on overall welfare expenditure, and we went through the | :11:16. | :11:19. | |
lobbies and voted for the Tories. You voted against the benefit cap, | :11:20. | :11:24. | |
welfare rating, you voted against, child benefit schemes, you voted | :11:25. | :11:29. | |
against. You can't say we voted against everything when we voted | :11:30. | :11:31. | |
with the Conservatives in the most recent bill with a cap on Social | :11:32. | :11:36. | |
Security. It's just not correct to say. The last time we voted, we | :11:37. | :11:43. | |
walked through the lobby with them. You voted on the principle of the | :11:44. | :11:49. | |
cap. You voted on every step that would allow the cap to be met. Every | :11:50. | :11:54. | |
single one. The most recent vote was not on the principle of the cap it | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
was on a cap of Social Security in the next Parliament and we signed up | :11:59. | :12:01. | |
for that. It was Ed Miliband who called her that earlier on. Which | :12:02. | :12:05. | |
welfare reform did you vote for We voted for the cap. Other than that? | :12:06. | :12:12. | |
We have supported universal credit. You voted against it in the third | :12:13. | :12:18. | |
reading. We voted against some of the specifics. If you look at | :12:19. | :12:23. | |
universal credit, they have had to write off nearly ?900 million of | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
spending. I'm not on the rights and wrongs, I'm trying to work out what | :12:28. | :12:31. | |
you voted for. Some of the things we are going to go further than the | :12:32. | :12:34. | |
government with. For example, cutting benefits for young people | :12:35. | :12:40. | |
who don't sign of the training. The government had introduced that. For | :12:41. | :12:43. | |
example, saying that the richest pensioners should not get the winter | :12:44. | :12:46. | |
fuel allowance, that is something the government haven't signed up. | :12:47. | :12:50. | |
You would get that under Labour and this government haven't signed up | :12:51. | :12:54. | |
for it. ?100 million on the winter fuel allowance and ?65 million on | :12:55. | :13:00. | |
youth training. ?165 million. How big is the welfare budget? The cap | :13:01. | :13:05. | |
would apply to ?120 billion. And you've saved 125 -- 165 million | :13:06. | :13:12. | |
Those are cuts that we said we would do in government. If you look at the | :13:13. | :13:17. | |
real prize from the changes Ed Miliband announced in the youth | :13:18. | :13:20. | |
allowance, it's not the short-term savings, it's the fact that each of | :13:21. | :13:24. | |
these young people, who are currently on unemployment benefits | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
without the skills we know they need to succeed in life, they will cost | :13:28. | :13:33. | |
the taxpayer ?2000 per year. I will come onto that. You mentioned | :13:34. | :13:38. | |
universal credit, which the government regards as the flagship | :13:39. | :13:41. | |
reform. It's had lots of troubles with it and it merges six benefits | :13:42. | :13:47. | |
into one. You voted against it in the third reading and given lukewarm | :13:48. | :13:50. | |
support in the past. We have not said he would abandon it, but now | :13:51. | :13:57. | |
you say you are for it. You are all over the place. We set up the rescue | :13:58. | :14:01. | |
committee in autumn of last year because we have seen from the | :14:02. | :14:03. | |
National Audit Office and the Public Accounts Committee, report after | :14:04. | :14:08. | |
report showing that the project is massively overbudget and is not | :14:09. | :14:13. | |
going to be delivered according to the government timetable. We set up | :14:14. | :14:17. | |
the committee because we believe in the principle of universal credit | :14:18. | :14:19. | |
and think it is the right thing to do. Can you tell us now if you will | :14:20. | :14:24. | |
keep it or not? Because there is no transparency and we have no idea. We | :14:25. | :14:31. | |
are awash with information. We are not. The government, in the most | :14:32. | :14:36. | |
recent National audit Forest -- National Audit Office statement said | :14:37. | :14:41. | |
it was a reset project. This is really important. This is a flagship | :14:42. | :14:46. | |
government programme, and it's going to cost ?12.8 billion to deliver, | :14:47. | :14:51. | |
and we don't know what sort of state it is in, so we have said that if we | :14:52. | :14:55. | |
win at the next election, we will pause that for three months and | :14:56. | :15:03. | |
calling... Will you stop the pilots? We don't know what status they will | :15:04. | :15:08. | |
have. We would stop the build of the system for three months, calling the | :15:09. | :15:11. | |
National Audit Office to do awards and all report. The government don't | :15:12. | :15:17. | |
need to do this until the next general election, they could do it | :15:18. | :15:20. | |
today. Stop throwing good money after bad and get a grip of this | :15:21. | :15:25. | |
incredibly important programme. You said you don't know enough to a view | :15:26. | :15:30. | |
now. So when you were invited to a job centre where universal credit is | :15:31. | :15:34. | |
being rolled out to see how it was working, you refused to go. Why We | :15:35. | :15:39. | |
asked were a meeting with Iain Duncan Smith and he cancelled the | :15:40. | :15:43. | |
meeting is three times. I'm talking about the visit when you were | :15:44. | :15:45. | |
offered to go to a job centre and you refused. We had an appointment | :15:46. | :15:50. | |
to meet Iain Duncan Smith at the Department for Work and Pensions and | :15:51. | :15:53. | |
said he cancelled and was not available, but he wanted us to go to | :15:54. | :15:57. | |
the job centre. We wanted to talk to him and his officials, which she | :15:58. | :16:03. | |
did. Would it be more useful to go to the job centre and find out how | :16:04. | :16:06. | |
it was working. He's going to tell you it's working fine. | :16:07. | :16:20. | |
Advice Bureau in Hammersmith, they are working to help the people | :16:21. | :16:26. | |
trying to claim universal credit. Iain Duncan Smith cancelled three | :16:27. | :16:32. | |
meetings. That is another issue I was asking about the job centre It | :16:33. | :16:37. | |
is not another issue because Iain Duncan Smith fogged us off. This | :16:38. | :16:43. | |
week you said that jobless youngsters who won't take training | :16:44. | :16:47. | |
will lose their welfare payments. How many young people are not in | :16:48. | :16:56. | |
work training or education? There are 140,000 young people claiming | :16:57. | :17:01. | |
benefits at the moment, but 850 000 young people who are not in work at | :17:02. | :17:08. | |
the moment. This applies to around 100,000 young people. There are | :17:09. | :17:15. | |
actually 975,000, 16-24 -year-olds, not in work, training or education. | :17:16. | :17:22. | |
Your proposal only applies to 100,000 of them, why? This is | :17:23. | :17:29. | |
applying to young people who are signing on for benefits rather than | :17:30. | :17:35. | |
signing up for training. We want to make sure that all young people .. | :17:36. | :17:42. | |
Why only 100,000? They are the ones currently getting job-seeker's | :17:43. | :17:46. | |
allowance. We are saying you can not just sign up to... Can I get you to | :17:47. | :17:59. | |
respond to this, the number of people not in work, training or | :18:00. | :18:05. | |
education fell last year by more than you are planning to help. Long | :18:06. | :18:15. | |
turn -- long-term unemployment is an entrenched problem... This issue | :18:16. | :18:23. | |
about an entrenched group of young people. Young people who haven't got | :18:24. | :18:29. | |
skills and are not in training we know are much less likely to get a | :18:30. | :18:34. | |
job so there are 140,018-24 -year-olds signing onto benefits at | :18:35. | :18:41. | |
the moment. This is about trying to address that problem to make sure | :18:42. | :18:44. | |
all young people have the skills they need to get a job. Your policy | :18:45. | :18:50. | |
is to take away part of the dole unless young unemployed people agree | :18:51. | :18:54. | |
to study for level three qualifications, the equivalent of an | :18:55. | :19:01. | |
AS-level or an NVQ but 40% of these people have the literary skills of a | :19:02. | :19:08. | |
nine-year-old. After all that failed education, how are you going to | :19:09. | :19:14. | |
train them to a level standard? We are saying that anyone who doesn't | :19:15. | :19:18. | |
have that a level or equivalent qualification will be required to go | :19:19. | :19:23. | |
back to college. We are not saying that within a year they have to get | :19:24. | :19:29. | |
up to that level but these are exactly the sorts of people... These | :19:30. | :19:33. | |
people have been failed by your education system. These people are, | :19:34. | :19:37. | |
for the last four years, have been educated under a Conservative | :19:38. | :19:43. | |
government. 18 - 21-year-olds, most of them have their education under a | :19:44. | :19:47. | |
Labour government during which 300,000 people left with no GCSEs | :19:48. | :19:53. | |
whatsoever. I don't understand how training for one year can do what 11 | :19:54. | :19:59. | |
years in school did not. We are not saying that within one year | :20:00. | :20:03. | |
everybody will get up to a level three qualifications, but if you are | :20:04. | :20:06. | |
one of those people who enters the Labour market age 18 with the | :20:07. | :20:11. | |
reading skills of a nine-year-old, they are the sorts of people that | :20:12. | :20:18. | |
should not the left languishing I went to college in Hackney if you | :20:19. | :20:25. | |
you are -- a few weeks ago and there was a dyslexic boy studying painting | :20:26. | :20:30. | |
and decorating. In school they decided he was a troublemaker and | :20:31. | :20:34. | |
that he didn't want to learn. He went back to college because he | :20:35. | :20:39. | |
wanted to get the skills. He said that it wasn't until he went back to | :20:40. | :20:44. | |
college that he could pick up a newspaper and read it, it made a | :20:45. | :20:49. | |
huge difference but too many people are let down by the system. I am | :20:50. | :20:54. | |
wondering how the training will make up for an education system that | :20:55. | :20:59. | |
failed them but let's move on to your leader. Look at this graph of | :21:00. | :21:04. | |
Ed Miliband's popularity. This is the net satisfaction with him, it is | :21:05. | :21:09. | |
dreadful. The trend continues to climb since he became leader of the | :21:10. | :21:16. | |
Labour Party, why? What you have seen is another 2300 Labour | :21:17. | :21:19. | |
councillors since Ed Miliband became the leader of the Labour Party. You | :21:20. | :21:24. | |
saw in the elections a month ago that... Why is the satisfaction rate | :21:25. | :21:33. | |
falling? We can look at polls or actual election results and the fact | :21:34. | :21:37. | |
that we have got another 2000 Labour councillors, more people voting | :21:38. | :21:42. | |
Labour, the opinion polls today show that if there was a general election | :21:43. | :21:46. | |
today we would have a majority of more than 40, he must be doing | :21:47. | :21:54. | |
something right. Why do almost 0% of voters want to replace him as | :21:55. | :22:00. | |
leader? Why do 50% and more think that he is not up to the job? The | :22:01. | :22:06. | |
more people see Ed Miliband, the less impressed they are. The British | :22:07. | :22:12. | |
people seem to like him less. The election strategy I suggest that | :22:13. | :22:17. | |
follows from that is that you should keep Ed Miliband under wraps until | :22:18. | :22:22. | |
the election. Let's look at actually what happens when people get a | :22:23. | :22:27. | |
chance to vote, when they get that opportunity we have seen more Labour | :22:28. | :22:31. | |
councillors, more Labour members of the European Parliament... | :22:32. | :22:38. | |
Oppositions always get more. The opinion polls today, one of them | :22:39. | :22:44. | |
shows Labour four points ahead. You have not done that well in local | :22:45. | :22:49. | |
government elections or European elections. Why don't people like | :22:50. | :22:55. | |
him? I think we have done incredibly well in elections. People must like | :22:56. | :23:00. | |
a lot of the things Labour and Ed Miliband are doing because we are | :23:01. | :23:04. | |
winning back support across the country. We won local councils in | :23:05. | :23:08. | |
places like Hammersmith and Fulham, Crawley, Hastings, key places that | :23:09. | :23:14. | |
Labour need to win back at the general election next year. Even you | :23:15. | :23:19. | |
have said traditional Labour supporters are abandoning the party. | :23:20. | :23:25. | |
That is what Ed Miliband has said as well. We have got this real concern | :23:26. | :23:30. | |
about what has happened. If you look at the elections in May, 60% of | :23:31. | :23:35. | |
people didn't even bother going to vote. That is a profound issue not | :23:36. | :23:40. | |
just for Labour. You said traditional voters who perhaps at | :23:41. | :23:45. | |
times we took for granted are now being offered an alternative. Why | :23:46. | :23:50. | |
did you take them for granted? This is what Ed Miliband said. I am not | :23:51. | :23:56. | |
saying anything Ed Miliband himself has not said. When he ran for the | :23:57. | :24:02. | |
leadership he said that we took too many people for granted and we | :24:03. | :24:06. | |
needed to give people positive reasons to vote Labour, he has been | :24:07. | :24:10. | |
doing that. He has been there for four years and you are saying you | :24:11. | :24:14. | |
still take them for granted. Why? I am saying that for too long we have | :24:15. | :24:19. | |
taken them for granted. We are on track to win the general election | :24:20. | :24:23. | |
next year and that will defy all the odds. You are going to win... Ed | :24:24. | :24:34. | |
Miliband will win next year and make a great Prime Minister. | :24:35. | :24:38. | |
Now to the Liberal Democrats, at the risk of intruding into private | :24:39. | :24:43. | |
grief. The party is still smarting from dire results in the European | :24:44. | :24:47. | |
and Local Elections. The only poll Nick Clegg has won in recent times | :24:48. | :24:50. | |
is to be voted the most unpopular leader of a party in modern British | :24:51. | :24:54. | |
history. No surprise there have been calls for him to go, though that | :24:55. | :24:58. | |
still looks unlikely. Here's Eleanor. | :24:59. | :24:59. | |
Liberal Democrats celebrating, something we haven't seen for a | :25:00. | :25:04. | |
while. This victory back in 199 led to a decade of power for the Lib | :25:05. | :25:10. | |
Dems in Liverpool. What a contrast to the city's political landscape | :25:11. | :25:15. | |
today. At its height the party had 69 local councillors, now down to | :25:16. | :25:21. | |
just three. The scale of the challenge facing Nick Clegg and the | :25:22. | :25:25. | |
Lib Dems is growing. The party is rock bottom in the polls, | :25:26. | :25:30. | |
consistently in single figures. It was wiped out in the European | :25:31. | :25:35. | |
elections losing all but one of its 12 MEPs and in the local elections | :25:36. | :25:41. | |
it lost 42% of the seats that it was defending. But on Merseyside, Nick | :25:42. | :25:48. | |
Clegg was putting on a brave face. We did badly in Liverpool, | :25:49. | :25:52. | |
Manchester and London in particular, we did well in other places. But you | :25:53. | :25:58. | |
are right, we did badly in some of those big cities and I have | :25:59. | :26:03. | |
initiated a review, quite naturally, to understand what went | :26:04. | :26:09. | |
wrong, what went right. As Lib Dems across the country get on with some | :26:10. | :26:13. | |
serious soul-searching, there is an admission that his is the leader of | :26:14. | :26:18. | |
the party who is failing to hit the right notes. Knocking on doors in | :26:19. | :26:23. | |
Liverpool, I have to tell you that Nick Clegg is not a popular person. | :26:24. | :26:29. | |
Some might use the word toxic and I find this very difficult because I | :26:30. | :26:33. | |
know Nick very well and I see a principal person who passionately | :26:34. | :26:38. | |
believes in what he is doing and he is a nice guy. As a result of his | :26:39. | :26:44. | |
popularity, what has happened to the core vote? In parts of the country, | :26:45. | :26:54. | |
we are down to just three councillors like Liverpool for | :26:55. | :26:58. | |
example. You also lose the deliverers and fundraisers and the | :26:59. | :27:01. | |
organisers and the members of course so all of that will have to be | :27:02. | :27:07. | |
rebuilt. As they start fermenting process, local parties across the | :27:08. | :27:11. | |
country and here in Liverpool have been voting on whether there should | :27:12. | :27:17. | |
be a leadership contest. We had two choices to flush out and have a go | :27:18. | :27:22. | |
at Nick Clegg or to positively decide we would sharpen up the | :27:23. | :27:26. | |
campaign and get back on the streets, and by four to one ratio we | :27:27. | :27:31. | |
decided to get back on the streets. We are bruised and battered but we | :27:32. | :27:37. | |
are still here, the orange flag is still flying and one day it will fly | :27:38. | :27:42. | |
over this building again, Liverpool town hall. But do people want the | :27:43. | :27:48. | |
Lib Dems back in charge in this city? I certainly wouldn't vote for | :27:49. | :27:52. | |
them. Their performance in Government and the way they have | :27:53. | :27:56. | |
left their promises down, I could not vote for them again. I voted Lib | :27:57. | :28:03. | |
Dem in the last election because of the university tuition fees and I | :28:04. | :28:09. | |
would never vote for them again because they broke their promise. | :28:10. | :28:13. | |
The Lib Dems are awful, broken promises and what have you. I | :28:14. | :28:17. | |
wouldn't vote for them. This is the declaration of the results for the | :28:18. | :28:21. | |
Northwest... Last month, as other party celebrated in the north-west, | :28:22. | :28:26. | |
the Lib Dems here lost their only MEP, Chris Davies. Now there is | :28:27. | :28:31. | |
concern the party doesn't know how to turn its fortunes around. We | :28:32. | :28:38. | |
don't have an answer to that, if we did we would be grasping it with | :28:39. | :28:45. | |
both hands. We will do our best to hold onto the places where we still | :28:46. | :28:50. | |
have seats but as for the rest of the country where we have been | :28:51. | :28:55. | |
hollowed out, we don't know how to start again until the next general | :28:56. | :28:59. | |
election is out of the way. After their disastrous performance in the | :29:00. | :29:02. | |
European elections, pressure is growing for the party to shift its | :29:03. | :29:12. | |
stance. I think there has to be a lancing of the wound, there should | :29:13. | :29:17. | |
in a referendum and the Liberal Democrats should be calling it. The | :29:18. | :29:23. | |
rest of Europe once this because they are fed up with Britain being | :29:24. | :29:29. | |
unable to make up its mind. The Lib Dems are now suffering the effects | :29:30. | :29:34. | |
of being in Government. The party's problem, choosing the right course | :29:35. | :29:39. | |
to regain political credibility We can now speak to form a Lib Dems | :29:40. | :29:45. | |
leader Ming Campbell. Welcome back to the Sunday Politics. Even your | :29:46. | :29:50. | |
own activists say that Nick Clegg is toxic. How will that change between | :29:51. | :29:57. | |
now and the election? When you have had disappointing results, but you | :29:58. | :30:02. | |
have to do is to rebuild. You pick yourself up and start all over | :30:03. | :30:06. | |
again, and the reason why the Liberal Democrats got 57, 56 seats | :30:07. | :30:11. | |
in the House of Commons now is because we picked ourselves up, we | :30:12. | :30:15. | |
took every opportunity and we have rebuilt from the bottom up. | :30:16. | :30:26. | |
least popular leader in modern history and more unpopular than your | :30:27. | :30:29. | |
mate Gordon Brown. You are running out of time. No one believes that | :30:30. | :30:34. | |
being the leader of a modern political party in the UK is an easy | :30:35. | :30:38. | |
job. Both Ed Miliband and David Cameron must have had cause to | :30:39. | :30:42. | |
think, over breakfast this morning, when they saw the headlines in some | :30:43. | :30:46. | |
of the Sunday papers. Of course it is a difficult job but it was | :30:47. | :30:50. | |
pointed out a moment or two ago that Nick Clegg is a man of principle and | :30:51. | :30:54. | |
enormous resilience if you consider what he had to put up with, and in | :30:55. | :30:58. | |
my view, he is quite clearly the person best qualified to lead the | :30:59. | :31:01. | |
party between now and the general election and through the election | :31:02. | :31:05. | |
campaign, and beyond. So why don't people like him? We have had to take | :31:06. | :31:10. | |
some pretty difficult decisions and, of course, people didn't expect | :31:11. | :31:14. | |
that. If you look back to the rather heady days of the rose garden behind | :31:15. | :31:21. | |
ten Downing St, people thought it was all going to be sweetness and | :31:22. | :31:24. | |
light, but the fact is, we didn t know then what we know now, about | :31:25. | :31:29. | |
the extent of the economic crisis we win, and a lot of difficult | :31:30. | :31:33. | |
decisions have had to be taken in order to restore economic stability. | :31:34. | :31:37. | |
Look around you. You will see we are not there yet but we are a long way | :31:38. | :31:42. | |
better off than in 2010. You are not getting the credit for it, the | :31:43. | :31:49. | |
Tories are. We will be a little more assertive about taking the credit. | :31:50. | :31:54. | |
For example, the fact that 23 million people have had a tax cut of | :31:55. | :31:58. | |
?800 per year and we have taken 2 million people out of paying tax | :31:59. | :32:02. | |
altogether. Ming Campbell, your people say that on every programme | :32:03. | :32:07. | |
like this. Because it is true. That might be the case, but you are at | :32:08. | :32:11. | |
seven or 8% in the polls, and nobody is listening, or they don't believe | :32:12. | :32:13. | |
it. Once is listening, or they don't believe | :32:14. | :32:22. | |
doubt that what we have achieved will be much more easily | :32:23. | :32:25. | |
recognised, and there is no doubt, for example, in some of the recent | :32:26. | :32:28. | |
polls, like the Ashcroft Pole, something like 30% of those polled | :32:29. | :32:30. | |
said that as a result at the next something like 30% of those polled | :32:31. | :32:39. | |
general election, they would prepare their to be a coalition involving | :32:40. | :32:41. | |
the Liberal Democrats. So there is no question that the whole notion of | :32:42. | :32:47. | |
coalition is still very much a live one, and one which we have made work | :32:48. | :32:52. | |
in the public interest. The problem is people don't think that. People | :32:53. | :32:56. | |
see you trying to have your cake and eat it. On the one hand you want to | :32:57. | :32:59. | |
get your share of the credit for the turnaround in the economy, on the | :33:00. | :33:03. | |
other hand you can't stop yourself from distancing yourself from the | :33:04. | :33:06. | |
Tories and things that you did not like happening. You are trying to | :33:07. | :33:14. | |
face both ways at once. If you remember our fellow Scotsman | :33:15. | :33:14. | |
famously said you cannot ride both remember our fellow Scotsman | :33:15. | :33:27. | |
to the terms -- terms of the remember our fellow Scotsman | :33:28. | :33:28. | |
coalition agreement, which is what we signed up to in 2010. In | :33:29. | :33:31. | |
addition, in furtherance of that agreement, we have created things | :33:32. | :33:35. | |
like the pupil premium and the others I mentioned and you were | :33:36. | :33:39. | |
rather dismissive. I'm not dismissive, I'm just saying they | :33:40. | :33:42. | |
don't make a difference to what people think of you. We will do | :33:43. | :33:46. | |
everything in our power to change that between now and May 2015. The | :33:47. | :33:51. | |
interesting thing is, going back to the Ashcroft result, it demonstrated | :33:52. | :33:57. | |
clearly that in constituencies where we have MPs and we are well dug in, | :33:58. | :34:02. | |
we are doing everything that the public expects of us, and we are | :34:03. | :34:08. | |
doing very well indeed. You aren't sure fellow Lib Dems have been | :34:09. | :34:13. | |
saying this for you -- you and your fellow Liberal Dems have been saying | :34:14. | :34:17. | |
this for a year or 18 months, and since then you have lost all of your | :34:18. | :34:20. | |
MEPs apart from one, you lost your deposit in a by-election, you lost | :34:21. | :34:24. | |
310 councillor, including everyone in Manchester or Islington. Mr Clegg | :34:25. | :34:29. | |
leading you into the next general election will be the equivalent of | :34:30. | :34:36. | |
the charge of the light Brigade I doubt that very much. The | :34:37. | :34:41. | |
implication behind that lit you rehearsed is that we should pack our | :34:42. | :34:45. | |
tents in the night and steal away. -- that litany. And if you heard in | :34:46. | :34:50. | |
that piece that preceded the discussion, people were saying, look | :34:51. | :34:53. | |
we have to start from the bottom and have to rebuild. That is exactly | :34:54. | :35:08. | |
what we will do. Nine months is a period of gestation. As you well | :35:09. | :35:12. | |
know. I wouldn't dismiss it quite so easily as that. I'm not here to say | :35:13. | :35:17. | |
we had a wonderful result or anything like it, but what I do say | :35:18. | :35:21. | |
is that the party is determined to turn it round, and that Nick Clegg | :35:22. | :35:25. | |
is the person best qualified to do it. Should your party adopt a | :35:26. | :35:30. | |
referendum about in or out on Europe? No, we should stick to the | :35:31. | :35:35. | |
coalition agreement. If there is any transfer of power from Westminster | :35:36. | :35:39. | |
to Brussels, that will be subject to a referendum. No change. And | :35:40. | :35:46. | |
finally, as a Lib Dem, you must be glad you are not fighting the next | :35:47. | :35:51. | |
election yourself? I've fought every election since 1974, so I've had a | :35:52. | :35:56. | |
few experiences, some good, some bad, but the one thing I have done | :35:57. | :36:01. | |
and the one thing a lot of other people have done is that they have | :36:02. | :36:04. | |
stuck to the task, and that is what will happen in May 2015. Ming | :36:05. | :36:06. | |
Campbell, thank you for joining us. It's just gone 11.35am, you're | :36:07. | :36:10. | |
watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers | :36:11. | :36:12. | |
in Scotland who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes, | :36:13. | :36:15. | |
the Week Ahead..First Hello and welcome to the | :36:16. | :36:26. | |
Sunday Politics here in the West. On the show this week, the councils | :36:27. | :36:29. | |
that are so shy they won't let We will ask why some local | :36:30. | :36:33. | |
authorities would rather their public discussions were kept | :36:34. | :36:42. | |
more private. We are joined by two Coalithon | :36:43. | :36:46. | |
pundits who are here to givd us their analysis of the West Country | :36:47. | :36:50. | |
action. They are the Phil Nevilles, if | :36:51. | :36:52. | |
you like, of the Sunday Polhtics. I speak of Don Foster, | :36:53. | :36:56. | |
MP for Bath and Justin Tomlhnson, We have got to be serious jtst | :36:57. | :37:00. | |
for a moment. I want to talk | :37:01. | :37:09. | |
about knife crime first of `ll. House of Commons MPs voted hn favour | :37:10. | :37:12. | |
of mandatory jail sentences This was saying that anybodx | :37:13. | :37:15. | |
above the age of 16 found c`rrying a knife, not using it, for thd second | :37:16. | :37:26. | |
time, would automatically bd sent to prison for six months, with no | :37:27. | :37:29. | |
opportunity for the judge to take the circumstances of the case | :37:30. | :37:33. | |
into account. We think that's very particularly at a time | :37:34. | :37:36. | |
when carrying knives has fallen by 30%. We are also trying to talk | :37:37. | :37:45. | |
about putting 16`year`olds hn prison when our prisons are overcrowded. It | :37:46. | :37:48. | |
costs a lot of money to do ht. We are worried that it might lead to | :37:49. | :37:52. | |
16`year`olds handing knives down to If you don't carry | :37:53. | :37:55. | |
a knife you can't use it. You can come up with all | :37:56. | :37:59. | |
the headline grabbing comments that The truth is, all of the experts, | :38:00. | :38:02. | |
including the Magistrates Association, | :38:03. | :38:06. | |
said this is a crazy way to do it. Putting young people in prison leads | :38:07. | :38:10. | |
them to be much more likely to be on one of the Conservative MPs for | :38:11. | :38:15. | |
Enfield, led on this in Parliament The leading judges were calling | :38:16. | :38:27. | |
for this. It sends | :38:28. | :38:30. | |
a crystal clear message to those that want to choose to carrx a knife | :38:31. | :38:32. | |
that it is absolutely unaccdptable. It is making sure that we prevent | :38:33. | :38:35. | |
things in the first place. The truth is that there are stop | :38:36. | :38:43. | |
and search methods in operation and most people who are stopped | :38:44. | :38:46. | |
and searched are from black They are going to be | :38:47. | :38:49. | |
disproportionately found thdn to It is actually those communhties | :38:50. | :38:52. | |
themselves that are asking Often knives are carried as a status | :38:53. | :38:56. | |
symbol and then something sparks it. Sometimes the kids carry thdm | :38:57. | :39:04. | |
for older members of a gang. Invariably they are the mugs | :39:05. | :39:07. | |
that go to prison. This is why it is part of a range | :39:08. | :39:12. | |
of packages to deal with thhs. This is as serious as it gets | :39:13. | :39:15. | |
and we have to have a range of packages that send a crystal | :39:16. | :39:19. | |
clear message that carrying This is an example of why it is | :39:20. | :39:21. | |
important to let judges look at the details of the case rather | :39:22. | :39:26. | |
than automatically lock people up. You can film inside the | :39:27. | :39:28. | |
United Nations, the European Parliament and the Houses | :39:29. | :39:31. | |
of Parliament, but you try taking a television camera into Bath Council | :39:32. | :39:34. | |
and you will get kicked out. It is one of | :39:35. | :39:37. | |
a few local authorities in the West Country who ban TV crews | :39:38. | :39:39. | |
from recording their deliberations, flouting guidelines | :39:40. | :39:42. | |
from the Government We were allowed to film the very | :39:43. | :39:46. | |
start of this Bath and North East Then an official came to | :39:47. | :40:04. | |
tell us to switch off. It's a quarter of a century | :40:05. | :40:07. | |
since cameras were first allowed Still Bath and North East Somerset | :40:08. | :40:10. | |
and a couple of other counchls won't hastened by the advent | :40:11. | :40:13. | |
of new technology. Elsewhere there have been | :40:14. | :40:17. | |
confrontations involving people This one in Middlesbrough rdsulted | :40:18. | :40:19. | |
in everyone being ordered ott. In the Bath chamber some filming is | :40:20. | :40:33. | |
allowed. It started But the quality is not what | :40:34. | :40:37. | |
we would normally broadcast. It is not necessarily for | :40:38. | :40:57. | |
duplication. Despite this the council still said no to new | :40:58. | :41:05. | |
scanners. There is a fear of manipulation. That fear is growing | :41:06. | :41:09. | |
rapidly since we started webcasting meetings. Peoples contributhons have | :41:10. | :41:15. | |
improved remarkably. The is changing. It is now a bigger | :41:16. | :41:21. | |
acceptance of the role of wdbcasting and cameras in meetings. He is a | :41:22. | :41:26. | |
convert. Soon his fellow cotncillors will have no choice. The Government | :41:27. | :41:32. | |
last year issued guidance s`ying that the councils should allowed | :41:33. | :41:37. | |
filming. When they heard of the reluctance to change, ministers | :41:38. | :41:43. | |
decided to make it mandatorx. The law is expected to change ndxt | :41:44. | :41:47. | |
month. In Bristol it will m`ke no difference. For a decade our cameras | :41:48. | :41:51. | |
have been able to capture mdmorable moments. We are trying to protect | :41:52. | :42:09. | |
our services. And they led the way with | :42:10. | :42:13. | |
webcasting, starting seven xears ago. While a typical council meeting | :42:14. | :42:21. | |
has a few in the gallery, thousands can view online. It is only | :42:22. | :42:31. | |
councillors and members of the media who sit through an entire mdeting. I | :42:32. | :42:34. | |
would not want to inflict that on people. But it is important to look | :42:35. | :42:42. | |
at issues of major concern or something that concerns the local | :42:43. | :42:45. | |
community so that they can see what is happening. That is the most | :42:46. | :42:50. | |
exciting thing. People realhse that it is a and they can take p`rt in | :42:51. | :42:55. | |
it. But getting the official blessing to film is one thing. | :42:56. | :43:01. | |
Predicting how the public rdact as another entirely. You might have to | :43:02. | :43:09. | |
speak more quietly for a molent We may leave it there. In a molent we | :43:10. | :43:17. | |
will hear from an independent councillor who opposes allowing | :43:18. | :43:26. | |
cameras in. But first, do you sense the outrage that local authorities | :43:27. | :43:29. | |
should throw out television cameras when they are supposed to bd | :43:30. | :43:41. | |
accountable? I do. It is yotr friends in Bath. The Liberal | :43:42. | :43:44. | |
Democrats are not the majorhty. It is important that they open them up. | :43:45. | :43:50. | |
We started with radio in Parliament. Then we had teldvision. | :43:51. | :43:58. | |
Have you told them? I have. They have now introduced a web c`st. Up | :43:59. | :44:01. | |
to 1000 people watch council meetings life. 1500 people watch the | :44:02. | :44:09. | |
archived version. It is good for democracy. What do you think the | :44:10. | :44:15. | |
problem is? Is it that the councillors are not up to scratch? | :44:16. | :44:21. | |
They cannot handle the heat that comes out of that particular | :44:22. | :44:30. | |
kitchen. I spent ten years hn Swindon Borough Council. I would be | :44:31. | :44:41. | |
delighted for people to fill. It was... My council looked at doing | :44:42. | :44:50. | |
it. I am talking about times when something is newsworthy and a news | :44:51. | :44:52. | |
crew wants to come in and they are turned away. My counsel opens The | :44:53. | :45:00. | |
Doors and said any organisation good film. `` my counsel opened the way | :45:01. | :45:22. | |
to allow any organisation to film. It is an opportunity for people to | :45:23. | :45:31. | |
engage with the council. Yot think it is right that television cameras | :45:32. | :45:38. | |
should not be allowed in. Unless you show the entire debate things can be | :45:39. | :45:45. | |
taken out of context. When xou watch the television news and you see a | :45:46. | :45:48. | |
debate in the House of Commons would you want the entire four hotrs | :45:49. | :45:59. | |
shown? I would want the opportunity. But you would never hear thd details | :46:00. | :46:03. | |
of a court case because thex go on for days. That is the main reason | :46:04. | :46:11. | |
why we should not have TV then the council chamber. If the public want | :46:12. | :46:19. | |
to know, they have a public speaking session, and they can infludnce the | :46:20. | :46:22. | |
councillors in debate by attending the meetings. They can do vdry | :46:23. | :46:29. | |
little sat at home in a chahr watching television. Television has | :46:30. | :46:33. | |
been around for 60 years. That is how people find out information | :46:34. | :46:39. | |
People find out information through the press. The big danger whth being | :46:40. | :46:47. | |
televised is that councillors will play to the camera. Would you show | :46:48. | :46:58. | |
off to the campus? I would show off anywhere. Has he got a point? The | :46:59. | :47:11. | |
same arguments were used in 197 about recording what was gohng on in | :47:12. | :47:14. | |
the House of Commons. The truth is from time to time people misbehave. | :47:15. | :47:20. | |
They are now hot on camera. The public can make a judgement. On the | :47:21. | :47:25. | |
whole people do behave bettdr. `` they are now hot on camera ht is | :47:26. | :47:34. | |
important that the public h`ve the opportunity to see what is going on. | :47:35. | :47:47. | |
You helped to ban tweeting from the council chamber? We have to leave it | :47:48. | :47:59. | |
there. Thank you for coming in. The summer holidays are just around | :48:00. | :48:05. | |
the corner. It is looking lhke a bumper year for tourism in the West. | :48:06. | :48:14. | |
Even The Sun is shining. Thd Government has made it easidr for | :48:15. | :48:22. | |
two lists from China. `` visitors from China. | :48:23. | :48:31. | |
We report from the Cotswolds. Peace and quiet in the Cotswolds. It is | :48:32. | :48:45. | |
like stepping back in time. Until, by lunch, the coach park is full. | :48:46. | :48:51. | |
They come from all over. We are from North Yorkshire. It is lovely around | :48:52. | :48:59. | |
here. We are from Leamington spa. They are from Oxford. We always say | :49:00. | :49:10. | |
Newcastle. I am from San Fr`ncisco in the United States. This hs | :49:11. | :49:20. | |
quaint. One nation stands ott. You will find their language at the | :49:21. | :49:24. | |
train station. They are backing our boys in Brazil. And he enjoxed the | :49:25. | :49:34. | |
national cuisine. Do you like it here? Yes. We are eating fish and | :49:35. | :49:42. | |
chips. Do you like fish and chips? Yes. | :49:43. | :49:48. | |
The Japanese do not need a Visa to come here. But the Chinese do need a | :49:49. | :49:58. | |
Visa. The Chinese need one Visa to cover | :49:59. | :50:03. | |
26 Nations, but the UK is not one of them. That means that over 0 million | :50:04. | :50:11. | |
Chinese visitors, only a sm`ll fraction cross the Channel. The | :50:12. | :50:16. | |
Chinese spend three times more than the average overseas tourists. Now | :50:17. | :50:29. | |
the Government is making it easier. It is fantastic news. We have been | :50:30. | :50:40. | |
waiting for this day for too long. It is significant. It is a positive | :50:41. | :50:49. | |
step in the right direction. It is not just in tourism the Chinese | :50:50. | :50:55. | |
money is making a differencd. There is also business. ?18 billion worth | :50:56. | :51:03. | |
of deals were signed off thhs week. But this is not welcomed by | :51:04. | :51:16. | |
everyone. Security for our electricity, water, ports. The fact | :51:17. | :51:24. | |
that they are controlled ovdrseas means we do not have control. The | :51:25. | :51:39. | |
economy could be stopped. Chinese investors will be funding of 40 of | :51:40. | :51:45. | |
this nuclear power station. Some people think that the infludnce of | :51:46. | :51:51. | |
the Far East has gone too f`r. Are you happy that we are allowing | :51:52. | :51:57. | |
so much Chinese influence? Absolutely. The importance for us is | :51:58. | :52:10. | |
to secure foreign investment and to provide long`term economic growth. | :52:11. | :52:30. | |
Getting the two lists in ` they are spending three times as much as | :52:31. | :52:34. | |
other visitors `` getting the visitors then. Nick Clegg spoke out | :52:35. | :52:44. | |
against the regime in China. Was the correct to do so? He was right to do | :52:45. | :52:54. | |
so. It was also right for the Prime Minister to do the same when he was | :52:55. | :52:59. | |
in China. It is perfectly possible to have dialogue with peopld with | :53:00. | :53:03. | |
whom we have disagreements. The Coalition is a very good ex`mple. We | :53:04. | :53:08. | |
can actually do business and raise our concerns about and rights. If we | :53:09. | :53:18. | |
are involved in economic developments, which could ldad to | :53:19. | :53:22. | |
social and political development, that is a good thing. Why do we need | :53:23. | :53:28. | |
help to build nuclear power stations? They are investing more in | :53:29. | :53:36. | |
the recent years than they have done. It is vitally important for | :53:37. | :53:46. | |
the economic growth in this country. We live in a global economy. We are | :53:47. | :53:58. | |
attracting more Chinese invdstment than France and Germany. We are also | :53:59. | :54:08. | |
sending our expertise. That is an opportunity for UK companies to | :54:09. | :54:11. | |
export into a rapidly expanding economy. Bass is already cr`mmed | :54:12. | :54:27. | |
with visitors. Do we need more? Yes. 8500 jobs have been created. We have | :54:28. | :54:36. | |
got 1000 Chinese students pdr year. That is very important. We need more | :54:37. | :54:43. | |
of them. This country is currently not getting its fair share. We are | :54:44. | :54:55. | |
opening up new Visa centres across China. They are welcome. It is nice | :54:56. | :55:08. | |
to see them. But the jobs whll be low paid. And they will be filled by | :55:09. | :55:19. | |
Europeans. There is an appetite to take up jobs. When you are | :55:20. | :55:29. | |
attracting high`end tourism, you must provide a high end service | :55:30. | :55:39. | |
Three years ago we introducdd Mandarin language gates. We want to | :55:40. | :55:49. | |
make Bath the most Chinese friendly city in the UK. We need mord people | :55:50. | :56:00. | |
speaking the language. If you have taken your eye off the political | :56:01. | :56:04. | |
ball with all the football on the television, you might be gr`teful | :56:05. | :56:07. | |
for this rundown of the week in 60 seconds. | :56:08. | :56:15. | |
A group of MPs criticised the Government for not spending enough | :56:16. | :56:18. | |
on maintaining rivers beford the floods this winter. | :56:19. | :56:33. | |
People have suffered an accdptably. The issue of a plague of flhes was | :56:34. | :56:37. | |
raised in the House of Commons on Wednesday. | :56:38. | :56:56. | |
An MP faces an inquiry. People inside Gloucestershire may | :56:57. | :57:01. | |
soon be waxing down their surfboards. And man`made surfing | :57:02. | :57:05. | |
lake was approved by councillors. But the Government has the final | :57:06. | :57:17. | |
say. Let us pick up on the polling for | :57:18. | :57:28. | |
the Lib Dems. It is looking dire. It is looking dire in national opinion | :57:29. | :57:36. | |
polls. Hopefully more peopld will realise the great contributhon that | :57:37. | :57:40. | |
we have made as Liberal Democrats to getting us out of the econolic | :57:41. | :57:49. | |
mess. Our task is to get ovdr the messages of the good things we have | :57:50. | :57:58. | |
achieved. Very often at this stage in the election cycle we ard in a | :57:59. | :58:03. | |
dire position. Time after thme when it gets closer to the electhon our | :58:04. | :58:09. | |
figures bounceback and we do much better than the pundits predict Why | :58:10. | :58:15. | |
are the Lib Dems taking the blame for the problems of the Coalition? | :58:16. | :58:21. | |
There is still a long way to go before the general election. We | :58:22. | :58:28. | |
cannot be complacent. We ard in the grown`up politics. Do you or them a | :58:29. | :58:37. | |
favour? In a mass porter of the Coalition. `` I am a supporter of | :58:38. | :58:53. | |
the Coalition. What we have seen with the Liberal Democrats hs that | :58:54. | :58:57. | |
where they have good active MPs they are doing much better than the | :58:58. | :59:02. | |
national picture. That is all we have time for. Thank you. Please | :59:03. | :59:13. | |
keep in touch with us on social media. Now we go back to London | :59:14. | :59:18. | |
information, you can apply to them and they will be obliged to tell | :59:19. | :59:23. | |
you. Thanks for joining us. Andrew, back to you. | :59:24. | :59:41. | |
think you'd want to. Labour grandees are not queueing up to sing his | :59:42. | :59:47. | |
praises. Look at this. In my view, he is the leader we have and he is | :59:48. | :59:51. | |
the leader I support and he is somebody capable of leading the | :59:52. | :59:55. | |
party to victory. Ed Miliband will leave this to victory, and I believe | :59:56. | :00:01. | |
he can. If he doesn't, what would happen to the Labour Party? We could | :00:02. | :00:07. | |
be in the wilderness for 15 years. At the moment he has to convince | :00:08. | :00:11. | |
people he has the capacity to lead the country. That's not my view but | :00:12. | :00:16. | |
people don't believe that. We had a leader of the Labour Party was | :00:17. | :00:19. | |
publicly embarrassed, because whoever was in charge of press | :00:20. | :00:26. | |
letting go through a process where we have councillors in Merseyside | :00:27. | :00:35. | |
resigning. It was a schoolboy error. Having policies without them being | :00:36. | :00:39. | |
drawn together into a convincing and vivid narrative and with what you do | :00:40. | :00:49. | |
the people in the country. You have to draw together, connect the | :00:50. | :00:55. | |
policies, link them back to the leader and give people a real sense | :00:56. | :01:01. | |
of where you are going. Somehow he has never quite managed to be | :01:02. | :01:07. | |
himself and create that identity with the public. And we are joined | :01:08. | :01:13. | |
by the president of you girls, Peter Kellner. Welcome to the Sunday | :01:14. | :01:24. | |
politics. -- YouGov. The Labour Party is six points ahead in your | :01:25. | :01:28. | |
poll this morning. So what is the problem? On this basis he will win | :01:29. | :01:32. | |
the next election. If the election were today and the figures held up, | :01:33. | :01:36. | |
you would have a Labour government with a narrow overall majority. One | :01:37. | :01:41. | |
should not forget that. Let me make three points. The first is, in past | :01:42. | :01:47. | |
parliaments, opposition normally lose ground and governments gain | :01:48. | :01:53. | |
ground in the final few months. The opposition should be further ahead | :01:54. | :01:55. | |
than this. I don't think six is enough. Secondly, Ed Miliband is | :01:56. | :02:02. | |
behind David Cameron when people are asked who they want as Prime | :02:03. | :02:05. | |
Minister and Labour is behind the Conservatives went people are asked | :02:06. | :02:08. | |
who they trust on the economy. There have been elections when the party | :02:09. | :02:12. | |
has won by being behind on leadership and other elections where | :02:13. | :02:16. | |
they have won by being behind on the economy. No party has ever won an | :02:17. | :02:20. | |
election when it has been clearly behind on both leadership and the | :02:21. | :02:25. | |
economy. Let me have another go The Labour Party brand is a strong | :02:26. | :02:29. | |
brand. The Tory Bramleys week. The Labour brand is stronger. That is a | :02:30. | :02:35. | |
blast -- the Labour -- the Tory Bramleys week. A lot of the Tories | :02:36. | :02:46. | |
-- the Tory brand is weak. Cant you win on policies and a strong party | :02:47. | :02:54. | |
brand? If you have those too, you need the third factor which isn t | :02:55. | :02:56. | |
there. People believing that you have what it takes, competent | :02:57. | :03:02. | |
skills, determination, determination, whatever makes to | :03:03. | :03:08. | |
carry through. -- whatever mix. A lot of Ed Miliband policies, on the | :03:09. | :03:15. | |
banks, energy prices, Brent controls, people like them. But in | :03:16. | :03:19. | |
government, would they carry them through? They think they are not up | :03:20. | :03:23. | |
to it. -- rent controls. If people think you won't deliver what you | :03:24. | :03:28. | |
say, even if they like it, they were necessarily vote for you. That is | :03:29. | :03:32. | |
the missing third element. There is a strong Labour brand, but it's not | :03:33. | :03:38. | |
strong enough to overcome the feeling that the Labour leadership | :03:39. | :03:44. | |
is not up to it. Nick, you had some senior Labour figure telling you | :03:45. | :03:48. | |
that if Mr Miliband losing the next election he will have to resign | :03:49. | :03:51. | |
immediately and cannot fight another election the way Neil Kinnock did | :03:52. | :03:56. | |
after 1987. What was remarkable to me was that people were even | :03:57. | :03:59. | |
thinking along these lines, and even more remarkable that they would tell | :04:00. | :04:02. | |
you they were thinking along these lines? What is the problem? The | :04:03. | :04:10. | |
problem is, is that Ed Miliband says it would be unprecedented to win the | :04:11. | :04:15. | |
general election after the second worst result since 1918. They are | :04:16. | :04:19. | |
concerned about is the start of a script that he would say on the day | :04:20. | :04:22. | |
after losing the general election. Essentially what the people are | :04:23. | :04:25. | |
trying to do is get their argument in first and to say, you cannot do | :04:26. | :04:30. | |
what Neil Kinnock did in 1987. Don't forget that Neil Kinnock in 198 was | :04:31. | :04:34. | |
in the middle of a very brave process of modernisation and had one | :04:35. | :04:39. | |
and fought a very campaign that was professional but he lost again in | :04:40. | :04:43. | |
1992, and they wanted to get their line in first. What some people are | :04:44. | :04:50. | |
saying is that this is an election that the Labour Party should be | :04:51. | :04:53. | |
winning because the coalition is so unpopular. If you don't win, I'm | :04:54. | :04:56. | |
afraid to say, there is something wrong with you. Don't you find it | :04:57. | :04:59. | |
remarkable that people are prepared to think along these lines at this | :05:00. | :05:03. | |
stage, when Labour are ahead in the polls, still the bookies favourite | :05:04. | :05:06. | |
to win, and you start to speak publicly, or in private to the | :05:07. | :05:11. | |
public print, but we might have to get rid of him if he doesn't win. | :05:12. | :05:16. | |
Everything you say about labour in this situation has been said about | :05:17. | :05:18. | |
the Tories. We wondered whether Boris Johnson would tie himself to | :05:19. | :05:23. | |
the mask and he is the next leader in waiting if Cameron goes. It's a | :05:24. | :05:28. | |
mirror image of that. We talk about things being unprecedented. It's | :05:29. | :05:30. | |
unprecedented for a government to gain seats. All the things you say | :05:31. | :05:34. | |
about labour, you could say it the Conservatives. That's what makes the | :05:35. | :05:39. | |
next election so interesting. But in the aftermath of the European | :05:40. | :05:42. | |
elections and the local government elections, in which the | :05:43. | :05:44. | |
Conservatives did not do that well, the issue was not Mr Cameron or the | :05:45. | :05:49. | |
Tories doing well, the issue was the Labour Party and how they had not | :05:50. | :05:52. | |
done as well as they should have done, and that conversation was | :05:53. | :05:55. | |
fuelled by the kind of people who have been speaking to nick from the | :05:56. | :06:01. | |
Labour Party. Rachel Reeves cited their real-life performance in | :06:02. | :06:05. | |
elections as a reason for optimism. When in fact their performance in | :06:06. | :06:09. | |
the Europeans and locals was disappointing for an opposition one | :06:10. | :06:11. | |
year away from a general election. What alarms me about labour is the | :06:12. | :06:16. | |
way they react to criticisms about Ed Miliband. Two years ago when he | :06:17. | :06:21. | |
was attacked, they said they were 15 points ahead, and then a year ago | :06:22. | :06:24. | |
there were saying they were nine or ten ahead, and now they are saying | :06:25. | :06:29. | |
we are still five or six ahead. The trend is alarming. It points to a | :06:30. | :06:34. | |
smaller Labour lead. Am I right in detecting a bit of a class war going | :06:35. | :06:39. | |
on in the Labour Party? There are a lot of northern Labour MPs who think | :06:40. | :06:43. | |
that Ed Miliband is to north London, and there are too many metropolitan | :06:44. | :06:48. | |
cronies around him must I think that is right, Andrew. What I think is, | :06:49. | :06:55. | |
being a pessimist in terms of their prospects, I do think the Labour | :06:56. | :07:00. | |
Party could win the next election. I just don't think they can as they | :07:01. | :07:03. | |
are going at the moment. But the positioning for a possible defeat, | :07:04. | :07:07. | |
what they should be talking about is what do we need to change in the | :07:08. | :07:13. | |
party and the way Ed Miliband performs in order to secure victory. | :07:14. | :07:17. | |
That is a debate they could have, and they could make the changes I | :07:18. | :07:22. | |
find it odd that they are being so defeatist. Don't go away. Peter is a | :07:23. | :07:28. | |
boffin when it comes to polls. That is why we have a mod for the | :07:29. | :07:32. | |
election prediction swings and roundabouts. He is looking for what | :07:33. | :07:36. | |
he calls the incumbency effect. Don't know what is a back-up -- what | :07:37. | :07:42. | |
that's about question don't worry, here is an. Being in office is bad | :07:43. | :07:52. | |
for your health. Political folk wisdom has it that incumbency | :07:53. | :07:56. | |
favours one party in particular the Liberal Democrats. That is because | :07:57. | :08:01. | |
their MPs have a reputation as ferociously good local campaigners | :08:02. | :08:04. | |
who do really well at holding on to their seats. However, this time | :08:05. | :08:09. | |
round, several big-name long serving Liberal Democrats like Ming | :08:10. | :08:13. | |
Campbell, David Heath and Don Foster are standing down. Does that mean | :08:14. | :08:18. | |
the incumbency effect disappears like a puff of smoke? Then there is | :08:19. | :08:23. | |
another theory, called the sophomore surge. It might sound like a movie | :08:24. | :08:28. | |
about US college kids, but it goes like this. New MPs tend to do better | :08:29. | :08:32. | |
in their second election than they did in their first. That could | :08:33. | :08:36. | |
favour the Tories because they have lots of first-time MPs. The big | :08:37. | :08:41. | |
question is, what does this mean for the 7th of May 2015, the date of the | :08:42. | :08:45. | |
next general election? The answer is, who knows? I know a man who | :08:46. | :08:56. | |
knows. Peter. What does it all mean? You can go onto your PC now and draw | :08:57. | :09:00. | |
down programmes which say that these are the voting figures from a | :09:01. | :09:03. | |
national poll, so what will the seats look like? This is based on | :09:04. | :09:07. | |
uniform swing. Every seat moving up and down across the country in the | :09:08. | :09:12. | |
same way. Historically, that's been a pretty good guide. I think that's | :09:13. | :09:17. | |
going to completely break down next year, because the Lib Dems will | :09:18. | :09:21. | |
probably hold on to more seats than we predict from the national figures | :09:22. | :09:26. | |
and I think fewer Tory seats will go to the Labour Party than you would | :09:27. | :09:30. | |
predict from the national figures. The precise numbers, I'm not going | :09:31. | :09:35. | |
to be too precise, but I would be surprised, sorry, I would not be | :09:36. | :09:41. | |
surprised if Labour fell 20 or 5 seats short on what we would expect | :09:42. | :09:47. | |
on the uniform swing prediction Next year's election will be tight. | :09:48. | :09:52. | |
Falling 20 seats short could well mean the difference between victory | :09:53. | :09:56. | |
and defeat. What you make of that, Helen? I think you're right, | :09:57. | :10:01. | |
especially taking into account the UKIP effect. We have no idea about | :10:02. | :10:05. | |
that. The conventional wisdom is that will drain away back to the | :10:06. | :10:09. | |
Conservatives, but nobody knows and it makes the next election almost | :10:10. | :10:13. | |
impossible to call. It means it is a great target the people like Lord | :10:14. | :10:16. | |
Ashcroft with marginal polling, because people have never been so | :10:17. | :10:22. | |
interested. It is for party politics and we all assume that UKIP should | :10:23. | :10:25. | |
be well next year, but their vote went up from 17 up to 27%. Then that | :10:26. | :10:33. | |
17% went down to 3%, so they might only be five or 6% in the general | :10:34. | :10:37. | |
election, so they might not have the threat of depriving Conservatives of | :10:38. | :10:41. | |
their seats. Where the incumbency thing has an effect is the Liberal | :10:42. | :10:45. | |
Democrats. They have fortress seats where between 1992 and 1997 Liberal | :10:46. | :10:50. | |
Democrats seats fell, but their percentage went up. They are losing | :10:51. | :10:55. | |
the local government base though. True, but having people like Ming | :10:56. | :10:58. | |
Campbell standing down means they will struggle. We are used to | :10:59. | :11:03. | |
incumbency being an important factor in American politics. It's hard to | :11:04. | :11:06. | |
get rid of an incumbent unless it is a primary election, like we saw in | :11:07. | :11:12. | |
Virginia, but is it now becoming an important factor in British | :11:13. | :11:15. | |
politics, that if you own the seat you're more likely to hold on to it | :11:16. | :11:20. | |
than not? If it is, that's a remarkable thing. It's hard to be a | :11:21. | :11:24. | |
carpetbagger in America, but it is normal in British Parliamentary | :11:25. | :11:27. | |
constituencies to be represented by someone who did not grow up locally. | :11:28. | :11:31. | |
It is a special kind of achievement to have an incumbency effect where | :11:32. | :11:35. | |
you don't have deep roots in the constituency. I was going to ask | :11:36. | :11:38. | |
about the Lib Dems. If we are wrong, and they collapse in Parliamentary | :11:39. | :11:42. | |
representation as much as the share in vote collapses, is that not good | :11:43. | :11:46. | |
news is that the Conservatives? They would be in second place in the | :11:47. | :11:51. | |
majority of existing Lib Dems seats. For every seat where Labour are | :11:52. | :11:54. | |
second to the Lib Dems, there are two where the Conservatives are | :11:55. | :11:58. | |
second. If the Lib Dem representation collapses, that helps | :11:59. | :12:06. | |
the Conservatives. I'm assuming the Tories will gain about ten seats. If | :12:07. | :12:10. | |
they gain 20, if they'd had 20 more seats last time, they would have had | :12:11. | :12:14. | |
a majority government, just about. So 20 seats off the Lib Dem, do the | :12:15. | :12:19. | |
maths, as they say in America, and they could lose a handful to labour | :12:20. | :12:23. | |
and still be able to run a one party, minority government. The fate | :12:24. | :12:27. | |
of the Lib Dems could be crucial to the outcome to the politics of | :12:28. | :12:34. | |
light. On the 8th of May, it will be VE Day and victory in election day | :12:35. | :12:39. | |
as well as Europe. The Lib Dems will be apoplectic if they lose all of | :12:40. | :12:41. | |
the seats to their coalition partners. The great quote by Angela | :12:42. | :12:47. | |
Merkel, the little party always gets crushed. It's a well-established | :12:48. | :12:51. | |
idea that coalition politics. They can't take credit for the things | :12:52. | :12:54. | |
people like you may get lumbered with the ones they don't. They have | :12:55. | :12:58. | |
contributed most of this terrible idea that seized politics where you | :12:59. | :13:02. | |
say it, but you don't deliver it. Tuition fees is the classic example | :13:03. | :13:07. | |
of this Parliament. Why should you believe any promise you make? And Ed | :13:08. | :13:12. | |
Miliband is feeling that as well. But in 1974 the liberal Democrats | :13:13. | :13:16. | |
barely had any MPs but there were reporters outside Jeremy Thorpe s | :13:17. | :13:19. | |
home because they potentially held not the balance of power, but were | :13:20. | :13:24. | |
significantly in fourth. Bringing back memories Jeremy Thorpe, and we | :13:25. | :13:27. | |
will leave it there. Thanks to the panel. We are tomorrow on BBC Two. | :13:28. | :13:32. | |
At the earlier time of 11am because of Wimbledon. Yes, it's that time of | :13:33. | :13:36. | |
year again already. I will be back here at 11 o'clock next week. | :13:37. | :13:41. | |
Remember, if it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics. | :13:42. | :14:38. | |
to the beating heart of today's vibrant shops. | :14:39. | :14:42. |