05/02/2017 Sunday Politics West

It's Sunday morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

Theresa May pledged to help people who are "just about managing",

and this week her government will announce new measures to boost

the number of affordable homes and improve conditions for renters.

After a US court suspends Donald Trump's travel ban and rules

it could be unconstitutional, one of the President's inner circle

tells me there is no "chaos", and that Donald Trump's White House

is making good on his campaign promises.

As the Government gets into gear for two years

of Brexit negotiations, we report on the haggling to come

over the UK's Brexit bill for leaving the European Union -

and the costs and savings once we've left.

So, is that the end of the line for councils running businesses?

And with me, as always, a trio of top political

journalists - Helen Lewis, Tom Newton Dunn

They'll be tweeting throughout the programme,

So, more anguish to come this week for the Labour party as the House

of Commons continues to debate the bill which paves the way

Last week, Labour split over the Article 50 bill,

with a fifth of Labour MPs defying Jeremy Corbyn to vote against.

Five shadow ministers resigned, and it's expected Mr Corbyn

will have to sack more frontbenchers once the bill is voted

Add to that the fact that the Labour Leader's close ally

Diane Abbot failed to turn up for the initial vote -

blaming illness - and things don't look too rosy

The Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry was asked

about the situation earlier on the Andrew Marr show.

The Labour Party is a national party and we represent the nation,

and the nation is divided on this, and it is very difficult.

Many MPs representing majority Remain constituencies have this very

difficult balancing act between - do I represent my constituency,

Labour, as a national party, have a clear view.

We fought to stay in Europe, but the public have spoken,

But the important thing now is not to give Theresa May a blank check,

we have to make sure we get the right deal for the country.

That was Emily Thornberry. Helen, is this like a form of Chinese water

torture for the Labour Party? And for journalists, to! We are in a

situation where no one really thinks it's working. A lot of authority has

drained away from Jeremy Corbyn but no one can do anything about it.

What we saw from the leadership contest is on the idea of a Blairite

plot to get rid of him. You are essentially stuck in stasis. The

only person that can remove Jeremy Corbyn is God or Jeremy Corbyn.

Authority may have moved from Mr Corbyn but it's not going anywhere

else, there's not an alternative centre of authority? Not quite, but

Clive Lewis is name emerging, the Shadow Business Secretary. A lot of

the Labour left, people like Paul Mason, really like him and would

like to see him in Corbyn. I think that's why Jeremy Corbyn do

something extraordinary next week and abstain from Article 50, the

main bill itself, to keep his Shadow Cabinet together. That clip on

Andrew Marr, point blank refusing to say if Labour will vote for Article

50. The only way Jeremy Corbyn can hold this mess together now is to

abstain, which would be catastrophic across Brexit constituencies in the

North. The problem with abstention is everyone will say on the issue of

our time, the official opposition hasn't got coherent or considered

policy? I love the way Emily Thornberry said the country is

divided and we represent the country, in other words we are

divided at the party as well. The other thing that was a crucial

moment this week is the debate over whether there should be a so-called

meaningful vote by MPs on the deal that Theresa May gets. That is a

point of real danger for Brexit supporters. It may well be there is

a coalition of Labour and SNP and Remain MPs, Tory MPs, who vote for

that so-called meaningful vote that could undermine Theresa May's

negotiation. So Theresa May could have had troubles as well, not plain

sailing for her? There is no point, apart from lonely Ken Clarke voting

against Article 50, no point in Tory remainders rebelling. It would have

been a token gesture with no support. But there might be

meaningful amendments. One might be on the status of EU nationals... The

government could lose that. There might be a majority for some of

those amendments. The ins and outs of the Labour Party, it fascinates

the Labour Party and journalists. I suspect the country has just moved

on and doesn't care. You are probably quite right. To be honest I

struggled to get Labour split stories in my paper any more, the

bar is so high to make it news. Where it does matter is now not

everyone will pay huge amounts to the -- of attention to the vote on

Wednesday. But come the general election in 2020, maybe a little

earlier, every Tory leaflet and every labour constituency will say

this guy, this goal, they refuse to vote for Brexit, do you want them in

power? That is going to be really hard for them. The story next week

may be Tory splits rather than just Labour ones, we will see.

Theresa May has made a big deal out of her commitment to help people

on middle incomes who are "just about managing", and early this week

we should get a good sense of what that means in practice -

when plans to bring down the cost of housing and protect renters

are published in the Government's new white paper.

Theresa May has promised she'll kick off Brexit negotiations with the EU

by the end of March, and after months of shadow-boxing

Ellie Price reports on the battle to come over the UK's Brexit bill,

and the likely costs and savings once we've left.

It was the figure that defined the EU referendum campaign.

It was also a figure that was fiercely disputed, but the promise -

vote leave and Britain won't have to pay into the EU are any more.

So, is that what's going to happen now?

The trouble with buses is you tend to have to wait for them

and when Theresa May triggers Article 50, the clock starts

She needs something quicker, something more sporty.

According to the most recent Treasury figures,

Britain's gross contribution to the EU, after the rebate

is taken into account, is about ?14 billion a year.

There are some complicating factors that means it can go up

or down year on year, but that's roughly how much the UK

will no longer sending to Brussels post-Brexit.

But, there are other payments that Britain will have to shell out for.

First and foremost, the so-called divorce settlement.

It is being said, and openly by Commissioner Barnier

and others in the Commission, that the total financial liability

as they see it might be in the order of 40-60 billion

The BBC understands the figure EU negotiators are likely

to settle on is far lower, around 34 billion euros,

but what does the money they are going to argue

Well, that's how much Britain owes for stuff in the EU budget that's

already signed up for until 2020, one year after we are

Historically, Britain pays 12% in contributions,

so the cost to the UK is likely to be between ten

Then they will look at the 200-250 billion euros of underfunded

spending commitments, the so-called RAL.

Britain could also be liable for around 5-7 billion euros

for its share in the pensions bill for EU staff, that's again

12% of an overall bill of 50-60 billion.

Finally there's a share of our assets held by the EU.

They include things like this building, the European Commission

Britain could argue it deserves a share back of around 18 billion

euros from a portfolio that's said to be worth 153 billion euros.

So, lots for the two sides to discuss in two years of talks.

They have a great opportunity with the Article 50 talks

because actually they can hold us to ransom.

They can say, "You figure out money, we will talk about your trade.

But until you've figured out the money, we won't," so I think

a lot of European states think they are in a very strong

negotiating position at the moment and they intend to make

The principle is clear, the days of Britain making vast

contributions to the European Union every year will end.

Theresa May has already indicated that she would want to sign back up

to a number of EU agencies on a program-by-program basis.

The Europol for example, that's the European crime

agency, or Erasmus Plus, which wants student exchanges.

If everything stays the same as it is now, it would cost the UK

675 million euros a year, based on analysis by

But there are likely to be agencies we don't choose to participate in.

If we only opted back to those dealing with security,

trade, universities and, say, climate change,

it could come with a price tag of 370 million euros per year.

Of course that's if our European neighbours allow us.

I wonder if they're going to let me in!

There will also be a cost to creating a new system to resolve

trade disputes with other nations once we are no longer part

Take the EFTA Court which rules on disputes

between the EU and Norway, Iceland and Lichtenstein.

That costs 4 million euros to run each year,

though in the Brexit White Paper published this week,

the Government said it will not be constrained by precedent

Finally, would the EU get behind the idea of Britain making some

contribution for some preferential access to its market?

The sort of thing that Theresa May seems to be hinting

at are sectoral arrangements, some kind of partial membership

Switzerland, which has a far less wide-ranging deal than Norway,

pays about 320 million a year for what it gets into the EU budget,

but it's not exactly the Swiss deal that we're after.

The EU institutions hate the Swiss deal because it is codified

in a huge number of treaties that are messy, complicated

and cumbersome, and they really don't want to replicate

Theresa May has been at pains to insist she's in the driving seat

when it comes to these negotiations, and that she's

But with so much money up for discussion, it may not be such

Sadly she didn't get to keep the car!

And I've been joined to discuss the Brexit balance sheet

by the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant,

and by Henry Newman who runs the think tank Open Europe.

Henry Newman, these figures that are being thrown about in Brussels at

the moment, and exit bill of 40-60,000,000,000. What do you make

of them? I think it is an opening gambit from the institutions and we

should take them seriously. We listened to Mr Rogers, the former

ambassador to Brussels in the House of Commons last week, speaking about

the sort of positions the EU is likely to take in the negotiation. I

personally think the Prime Minister should be more concerned about

getting the right sort of trade arrangements, subsequent to our

departure, than worrying about the exact detail of the divorce

settlement and the Bill. They might not let them go on to trade until

they resolve this matter. Where does the Brexit bill, the cost of exit,

if there is to be one, in terms of a sum of money, where does that come

in the negotiations, upfront or at the end? The European Commission has

a firm line on this. You have to talk about the Brexit bill and the

divorce settlement before you talk about the future relationship.

Therefore they are saying if you don't sign up for 60 billion or

thereabouts, we won't talk about the future. Other member states take a

softer line than that and think you probably have to talk about the

divorce settlement and Brexit bill as the same -- at the same time as

the economic situation. If you can do both at the same time, the

atmosphere may be better natured. You have spoken to people in

Brussels and are part of a think tank, how Revista gives the figure

or is it an opening gambit? Most member states and EU institutions

believe they think it is the true figure but when the negotiations

start adding the number will come down. As long as the British are

prepared to sign up to the principle of we owe you a bit of money, as the

cheque, then people will compromise. What is the ballpark? You had a

figure of 34 billion, that is news to me, nobody knows because

negotiations haven't started but I think something lower than 60. Even

60 would be politically toxic for a British government? I think Theresa

May is in a strong position, she has united the Conservative Party. You

could expect coming into this year all the Conservative divisions would

be laid bare by Gina Miller. But she is leading a united party. Labour

Party are divided... Coogee get away with paying 30 billion? We should

give her the benefit of the doubt going into these negotiations, let

her keep her cards close to her chest. The speech he gave a few

weeks ago at Lancaster House, our judgment was she laid out as much

detail as we could have expected at that point. I don't think it's

helpful for us now to say, we shouldn't be introducing further red

line. I want you to be helpful and find things out. I would suggest if

there is a bill, let's say it's 30 billion, let's make it half of what

the current claims coming out of Brussels. And of course it won't

have to be paid in one year, I assume it's not one cheque but

spread over. But we will wait a long time for that 350 million a week or

what ever it was that was meant to come from Brussels to spend on the

NHS. That's not going to happen for the next five, six or seven years.

Everyone has been clear there will be a phased exit programme. The

question of whether something is political possible for her in terms

of the divorce settlement will depend on what she gets from the

European Union in those negotiations. If she ends up

settling for a bill of about 30 billion which I think would be

politically... No matter how popular she is, politically very difficult

for her, it does kill any idea there is a Brexit dividend for Britain.

Some of the senior officials in London and Brussels are worried this

issue could crash the talks because it may be possible for Theresa May

to accept a Brexit bill of 30 billion and if there is no deal and

will leave EU without a settlement, there is massive legal uncertainty.

What contract law applies? Can our planes take off from Heathrow?

Nobody knows what legal rights there are for an EU citizen living here

and vice versa. If there is no deal at the end of two years, it is quite

bad for the European economy, therefore they think they have all

the cards to play and they think if it is mishandled domestically in

Britain than we have a crash. But there will be competing interests in

Europe, the Baltic states, Eastern Europe, maybe quite similar of the

Nordic states, that in turn different from the French, Germans

or Italians. How will Europe come to a common view on these things? At

the moment they are quite united backing a strong line, except for

the polls and Hungarians who are the bad boys of Europe and the Irish who

will do anything to keep us happy. We should remember their priority is

not economics, they are not thinking how can they maximise trade with the

UK, they are under threat. The combination of Trump and Brexit

scares them. They want to keep the institutions strong. They also want

to keep Britain. That is the one strong card we have, contributing to

security. We know we won't be members of the single market, that

was in the White Paper. The situation of the customs union is

more complicated I would suggest. Does that have cost? If we can be a

little bit pregnant in the customs union, does that come with a price

ticket? We have got some clarity on the customs union, the Prime

Minister said we would not be part of the... We would be able to do our

own trade deals outside the EU customs union, and also not be part

of the common external tariff. She said she is willing to look at other

options and we don't know what that will be so as a think tank we are

looking at this over the next few weeks and coming up with

recommendations for the Government and looking at how existing

boundaries between the EU customs union and other states work in

practice. For example between Switzerland and the EU border,

Norway and Switzerland, and the UK and Canada. We will want is a

country the freedom to do our own free trade deals, that seems to be

quite high up there, and to change our external tariffs to the rest of

the world. If that's the case, we do seem to be wanting our cake and

eating it in the customs union. Talking to some people in London, it

is quite clear we are leaving the essentials of the customs union, the

tariff, so even if we can minimise controls at the border by having

mutual recognition agreements, so we recognise each other's standards,

but there will still have to be checks for things like rules of

origin and tariffs if tariffs apply, which is a problem for the Irish

because nobody has worked out how you can avoid having some sort of

customs control on the border between Northern Ireland and the

South once we are out of the customs union. I think it's important we

don't look at this too much as one side has to win and one side has to

lose scenario. We can find ways. My Broadview is what we get out of the

negotiation will depend on politics more than economic reality. Economic

reality is strong, there's a good case for a trade deal on the

solution on the customs deal, but Britain will need to come up with a

positive case for our relationship and keep making that case. If it

turns out the Government thinks the bill is too high, that we can't

really get the free trade deal done in time and it's left hanging in the

wind, what are the chances, how I as things stand now that we end up

crashing out? I'd say there's a 30% chance that we don't get the free

trade agreement at the end of it that Mrs May is aiming for. The very

hard crash is you don't even do an Article 50 divorce settlement from

you go straight to World Trade Organisation rules. The less hard

crash is doing the divorce settlement and transitional

arrangements would require European Court of Justice arrangements. We

will leave it there. Thank you, both.

Donald Trump's flagship policy of extreme vetting of immigrants

and a temporary travel ban for citizens of seven mainly-muslim

countries was stopped in its tracks this weekend.

On Friday a judge ruled the ban should be lifted and that it

That prompted President Trump to fire off a series of tweets

criticising what he says was a terrible decision

by a so-called judge, as he ordered the State Department

Now the federal appeals court has rejected his request to reinstate

the ban until it hears the case in full.

Well yesterday I spoke to Sebastian Gorka, Deputy Assistant

I asked him if the confusion over the travel ban

was a sign that the President's two-week-old administration

There is no chaos, you really shouldn't believe the spin, the

facts speak for themselves. 109 people on Saturday were mildly

inconvenienced by having their entry into the United States delayed out

of 325,000. So let's not get carried away with the left-wing media bias

and spin. Hold on, 60,000 - 90,000 people with visas, their visas are

no longer valid. That's another issue. You need to listen to what

I'm saying. The people who entered on the day of the executive order

being implemented worth 109 people out of 325. Whether people won't

travelling to America were affected is another matter, so there is no

chaos to comment on. Following Iran's latest missile tests,

National Security adviser Flint said the US was "Putting Iran on notice",

what does that mean? It means we have a new president and we are not

going to facilitate the rise of one of the most dangerous nations in the

world. We are jettisoning this naive and dangerous policy of the Obama

Administration to try and make the Shi'ite dictatorial democracy some

kind of counter balance to extremist Sunni groups in the region and that

they cannot continue to behave in the way they have behaved for the

last 30 years. It is a very simple message. So are there any

multilateral alliances that Mr Trump would like to strengthen?

Absolutely. If we are looking at the region, if you listen to what

President Trump has said and specifically to also the speeches of

general Flint, his national security adviser, we are incredibly vested in

seeing our Sunni allies in the region come together in a real

coalition. The so-called vaunted 66 nation coalition that was created

under the Obama administration... There was no coalition. But we want

to help our Sunni allies, especially the Egyptians, the Jordanians, come

together in a real partnership to take the fight to ISIS and groups

like Al-Qaeda. But there is not a formal multilateral alliance with

these countries. Which of the existing, formal multilateral

alliances does Mr Trump wants to strengthen? If you are specifically

talking about Nato, it is clear that we are committed to Nato but we wish

to see a more equitable burden sharing among the nations that are

simply not spending enough on their own defence so the gentleman 's

agreement of 2% of GDP has to be stuck to, unlike the, I think it's

only Six Nations that reach the standard today out of almost 30. So

he does want to strengthen Nato then? Absolutely, he believes Nato

is the most successful military alliances. You mustn't believe the

spin and hype. EU leaders now see the Trump administration as a threat

up there with Russia, China, terrorism. What's your response to

that? I have to laugh. The idea that the nation that came to the

salvation of Europe twice in the 20th century hummer in World War I

and World War II, was central to the defeat of the totalitarian... It is

not even worth commenting on. Would it matter to the Trump

administration if the European Union broke up? The United States is very

interested in the best relations possible with all the nations of the

EU am a whether the European union wishes to stay together or not is up

to the nations of the European Union. I understand that but I was

wondering what the US view would be. Until Mr Trump, EU foreign policy

was quite consistent in wanting to see the EU survive, prosper and even

become more integrated. Now that doesn't seem to be the case, so

would it matter to the Trump administration if the EU broke up? I

will say yet again, it is in the interests of the United States to

have the best relations possible with our European allies, and

whether that is in the formation of the EU or if the EU by itself

suffers some kind of internal issues, that's up to the European

nations and not something we will comment on. Listening to that

answer, it would seem as if this particular president's preference is

to deal with individual nation states rather than multilateral

institutions. Is that fair? I don't think so. There's never been an

unequivocal statement by that effect by the statement. Does he share the

opinion of Stephen Bannon that the 21st century should see a return to

nation states rather than growing existing multilateral ways? I think

it is fair to say that we have problems with political elites that

don't take the interests of the populations they represent into

account. That's why Brexit happened. I think that's why Mr Trump became

President Trump. This is the connected phenomena. You are

obsessing about institutions, it is not about institutions, it's about

the health of democracy and whether political elites do what is in the

interests of the people they represent. Given the

unpredictability of the new president, you never really know

what he's going to do next, would it be wise for the British Prime

Minister to hitch her wagon to his star? This is really churlish

questioning. Come on, you don't know what he's going to do next, listen

to what he says because he does what he's going to say. I know this may

be shocking to some reporters, but look at his campaign promises, and

the fact that in the last 15 days we have executed every single one that

we could in the time permissible so there is nothing unpredictable about

Donald Trump as president. OK then, if we do know what he's going to do

next, what is he going to do next? Continue to make good on his

election promises, to make America great again, to make the economy are

flourishing economy, and most important of all from your

perspective in the UK, to be the best friend possible to our friends

and the worst enemy to our enemies. It is an old Marine Corps phrase and

we tend to live by it. Thank you for your time, we will leave it there.

Doctor Gorka, making it clear this administration won't spend political

capital on trying to keep the European Union together, a watershed

change in American foreign policy. Theresa May has made a big deal out

of her commitment to help people on middle incomes who are "just

about managing", and early this week we should get a good sense

of what that means in practice - when plans to bring down the cost

of housing and protect renters are published in the Government's

new white paper. The paper is expected to introduce

new rules on building Communities Secretary Sajid Javid

has previously said politicians should not stand in the way

of development, provided all options Also rumoured are new measures

to speed up building the 1 million new homes the Government promised

to build by 2020, including imposing five-year quotas

on reluctant councils. Reports suggest there will be

relaxation of building height restrictions,

allowing home owners and developers to build to the height

of the tallest building on the block without needing to seek

planning permission. Other elements trialled include

new measures to stop developers sitting on parcels of land

without building homes, land banking, and moving railway

station car parks Underground, The Government today said it

will amend planning rules so more homes can be built specifically

to be rented out through longer term tenancies, to provide more stability

for young families, alongside its proposed ban

on letting agent fees. And the Housing Minister,

Gavin Barwell, joins me now. Welcome to the programme. Home

ownership is now beyond the reach of most young people. You are now

emphasising affordable homes for rent. Why have you given up on the

Tory dream of a property owning democracy? We haven't given up on

that. The decline on home ownership in this country started in 2004. So

far we have stopped that decline, we haven't reversed it but we

absolutely want to make sure that people who want to own and can do

so. The Prime Minister was very clear a country that works for

everyone. That means we have to have say something to say to those who

want to rent as well as on. Home ownership of young people is 35%,

used to be 60%. Are you telling me during the lifetime of this

government that is going to rise? We want to reverse the decline. We have

stabilised it. The decline started in 2004 under Labour. They weren't

bothered about it. We have taken action and that has stop the

decline... What about the rise? We have to make sure people work hard

the right thing have the chance to own their home on home. We have

helped people through help to buy, shared ownership, that is part of

it, but we have to have something to say to those who want to rent. You

say you want more rented homes so why did you introduce a 3%

additional stamp duty levied to pay those investing in build to rent

properties? That was basically to try and stop a lot of the

speculation in the buy to let market. The Bank of England raised

concerns about that. When you see the white paper, you will see there

is a package of measures for Bill to rent, trying to get institutional

investment for that, different to people going and buying a home on

the private market and renting out. You are trying to get institutional

money to comment, just as this government and subsequent ones

before said it would get pension fund money to invest in

infrastructure and it never happened. Why should this happen? Is

already starting to happen. If you go around the country you can see

some of these builder rent scheme is happening. There are changes in the

White Paper... How much money from institutions is going into bill to

rent modular hundreds of millions. I was at the stock exchange the other

day celebrating the launch of one of our bombs designed to get this money

on. There are schemes being... There is huge potential to expand it. We

need more homes and we are too dependent on a small number of large

developers. -- to launch one of our bonds. You talk about affordable

renting, what is affordable? Defined as something that is at least 20%

below the market price. It will vary around the country. Let me put it

another way. The average couple renting now have to spend 50% of

their income on rent. Is that affordable? That is exactly what

we're trying to do something about. Whether you're trying to buy or

rent, housing in this country has become less and less affordable

because the 30-40 years governments haven't built in times. This white

Paper is trying to do something about that. You have been in power

six, almost seven years. That's right. Why are ownership of new

homes to 24 year low? It was a low figure because it's a new five-year

programme. That is not a great excuse. It's not an excuse at all.

The way these things work, you have a five-year programme and in the

last year you have a record number of delivery and when you start a new

programme, a lower level. If you look at the average over six years,

this government has built more affordable housing than the previous

one. Stiletto 24 year loss, that is an embarrassment. Yes. We have the

figures, last year was 32,000, the year before 60 6000. You get this

cliff edge effect. It is embarrassing and we want to stop it

happening in the future. You want to give tenants more secure and longer

leases which rent rises are predictable in advance. Ed Miliband

promoted three-year tenancies in the 2015 general election campaign and

George Osborne said it was totally economically illiterate. What's

changed? You are merging control of the rents people in charge, which

we're not imposing. We want longer term tenancies. Most people have

six-month tenancies... Within that there would be a control on how much

the rent could go up? Right? It would be set for the period of the

tenancies. That's what I just said, that's what Ed Miliband proposed. Ed

Miliband proposed regulating it for the whole sector. One of the reasons

institutional investment is so attractive, if you had a spare home

and you want to rent out, you might need it any year, so you give it a

short tenancy. If you have a block, they are interested in a long-term

return and give families more security. You have set a target,

your government, to build in the life of this parliament 1 million

new homes in England by 2020. You're not going to make that? I think we

are. If you look at 2015-16 we had 190,000 additional homes of this

country. Just below the level we need to achieve. Over five...

2015-16. You were probably looking at the new homes built. Talking

about completions in England. That is not the best measure, with

respect. You said you will complete 1 million homes by 2020 so what is

wrong with it? We use a national statistic which looks at new homes

built and conversions and changes of use minus demolitions. The total

change of the housing stock over that year. On that basis I have the

figures here. I have the figures. You looking I just completed. 1

million new homes, the average rate of those built in the last three

quarters was 30 6000. You have 14 more quarters to get to the 1

million. You have to raise that to 50 6000. I put it to you, you won't

do it. You're not looking at the full picture of new housing in this

country. You're looking at brand-new homes and not including conversions

or changes of use are not taking off, which we should, demolitions.

If you look at the National statistic net additions, in 2015-16,

100 and 90,000 new homes. We are behind schedule. -- 190,000. I am

confident with the measures in the White Paper we can achieve that. It

is not just about the national total, we need to build these homes

are the right places. Will the green belt remain sacrosanct after the

white paper? Not proposing to change the existing protections that there

for green belts. What planning policy says is councils can remove

land from green belts but only in exceptional circumstances and should

look at at all the circumstances before doing that. No change? No. We

have a manifesto commitment. You still think you will get 1 million

homes? The green belt is only 15%. This idea we can only fix our broken

housing market by taking huge swathes of land out of the green

belt is not true. We will leave it there, thank you for joining us,

Gavin Barwell. It is coming up to 11.40.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

Coming up here in 20 minutes, the Week Ahead...

Welcome to the Sunday Politics here in the West.

Some Europeans tell us they're packing up and leaving the West

We've granted our guests today full citizenship

Well, for the next 23 minutes at any rate.

They are Justin Tomlinson, Conservative MP for North Swindon

We'll hear from them in just a moment or two.

This week it was all change for the West's last

Thamesdown transport in Swindon wasn't turning a profit

It's part of a long history of councils privatising their services.

So, should it be the end of the line for councils running companies?

The bus company that's been just the ticket

They don't make buses like this any more.

It's a vintage Daimler double-decker proudly bearing the name

of Thamesdown Transport from the 1970s, an era when almost

all of our local buses were run by local government.

Most, like the famous Bristol Omnibus, disappeared decades ago.

Thamesdown was the last council owned bus company in the West,

They've now got a lot of national operators running bus services.

They've got a lot of financial muscle that a small,

municipal bus company can't compete with.

So, really, in the current climate we don't have any choice.

But I do see this as a really good development for bus users and also

it's a good deal for the taxpayers of Swindon as well in

that they will no longer have to subsidise the bus service.

Thamesdown Transport is being sold to one

of the big bus companies, Go Ahead, who are promising

brand-new vehicles and new technology, like paying

for your ticket with your mobile phone.

Ideas that would have been unheard-of when this bus

was rumbling through the streets of Swindon.

I have no access to private transport at all and for the council

just to decide to sell it off is ridiculous.

I'd sooner have the council run it because you never know

They can cut the services, can't they?

So, that's what I'm a bit worried about.

We just don't have a choice about it.

As long as the services run regularly for people getting

into work and things I think it will be fine.

Thamesdown has lost money over the last five years, but for some

There's no reason why a council cannot run a publicly owned

bus service at a profit if they do it correctly.

What's happened here is I think we've not been very financially

prudent under the borough council Tories with this company and that's

But are council businesses really better run?

Bristol Energy launched to much fanfare last year.

An energy company owned by Bristol City Council and it's kind

It's already needed millions more to keep going.

Meanwhile, Bristol waste, another council owned company says

it has managed to turn a profit and can use the funds

So, as the public sector pulls out of Swindon 's buses,

should we be worried or jumping for joy?

Justin, you're a Swindon MP, wasn't that rather nice

to have a bus service run by the people?

Actually, I'm a fan of Thamesdown transport.

The bus stops right in front of my house and I use it often

But the reality is, over the last few years,

it lost somewhere in the region of ?1.5 million and they were having

to reduce and cut services right across my constituency and this

was causing untold misery, particularly in the rural parts

of my constituency for elderly people who rely on this service.

And the challenge is they just did not have the financial power

to invest in the most modern technology, modern

Just reading the Swindon advertiser who know about these things,

I think the bus company was on track to you lose about

The council pays the chief executive of hundred and 62,000.

So, for one wage, the cost of one wage, they had their own public

Yes, Swindon Advertiser, great newspaper but the key is it

has been about ?1.5 million in the last few years.

The reason they've reduced the loss for this year

Well, it's ?1.5 million over the last four years and this has

brought in an opportunity to get investment to improve services.

Marketing, better vehicles, newer vehicles with the technology.

We can then get the numbers up that generates the income.

As someone who uses the service, I see this as a real opportunity.

Presumably he knows what he's talking about about

Well, the important thing that we saw from the film is that

a lot of people are dependent on buses and 20% of people have

turned down jobs because they don't have an adequate bus service.

The statistic in terms of money that I'd like to throw in here is that

40% of bus service revenue actually comes in terms of public money.

So we need to have very strong regulation of buses

At the same time, ?300 million a year is taken out by shareholders

So, if it's a public service people shouldn't be profiting from it.

The truth is, in Swindon now they're talking about new buses,

enhancing roots and better service so do you accept the principle that

private companies can be as good as, if not better, than the council's?

I'm not particularly ideological about who owns the buses,

what I'm concerned about is that if public money is invested

in the service, as it will always be, then there's proper regulation

and strong control to avoid profiteering.

I think there's probably not 1 million miles difference between us.

The council still has a role, particularly supporting

the non-commercially viable routes, but now the council can focus

the money on that area rather than the overall operational losses

which have been incurred because the company didn't

have the expertise, didn't have the economies of scale.

You look to London where the mayor has got control over transport -

buses and tubes, so at least the public can vote and choose

what they want in terms of fares and services and so on.

Now, it's completely out of the control of people in Swindon.

You're comparing apples and pears because in London, high-density,

public transport is the best form of transport, pretty much,

because they've got the numbers so they can offer

It is a real challenge in our towns up and down the country's country

because a lot of the services, even with the best companies,

will operate at a loss because there aren't the numbers.

The best chance we've got here is investing

in those new vehicles, the technology to get the numbers up

which helps the environment and I'm a greenie too.

But it also makes it financially sustainable and if you don't

If you don't invest properly in buses, if you cut services,

if you always invest money in roads rather than in public transport then

you see people starting to depend more on the car.

People without cars are disadvantaged and you see far

We need to commit to public transport and invest in it properly.

Can you understand people not wanting to get on rickety old buses

Because it's now a sort of marginal service for people who don't

have an alternative whereas in a lot of continentals cities

Politicians should be deciding that public transport should always

It depends on whether you'll get the best service,

but if there is a lot of public money invested then you need to have

It's interesting how they are going to make the money

Presumably that will mean lower wages, fewer benefits for staff?

power to invest in the vehicles which were then be more efficient.

Remember, the lion's share is the travel costs,

the fuel costs as they drive around all day long.

So having the most efficient modern buses allows their running costs

to be lower which helps on the operational cost.

In theory, would you like to see the council run

Where there are people with greater expertise than the council

they should always be the first choice.

I think very often councils can run services better because they can

make sure there isn't money taken out to feed profits and shareholders

and that's always my concern when there's

The government's Brexit White Paper was published this week.

But it shed little light on one of the key questions

What will happen to Europeans already living here?

Martin Jones has been speaking to people finding different ways

So, it is discriminatory because if I had been non-EU...

Evelyn is applying to become British.

She is among a growing number of EU citizens doing the same.

She's been here 30 years but she's worried the future.

Now I feel the need to protect myself because

I do not have a British passport, I only have a French one.

After we've come out of the EU, I need to feel protected.

But the process isn't for the faint-hearted.

The first stage alone in false and 85 page form and a huge

It took me a few weeks really to gather everything up

and because I was extremely worried about filling it the wrong way,

I went down the immigration lawyer route which not everybody will be

We're talking about ?500 I've spent so far but that may

There's a baffling range of questions.

Have you ever indulged in terrorist activity?

And do you ever take part in genocide?

Something to do on a rainy afternoon, perhaps?

Even so, Evelyn is optimistic having been in Bristol so long.

But what about people who aren't here already.

The Romanian Consul says he's seen dozens of families rushing to get

The lack of certainty is exacerbating the state of unease.

Many of them choose to bring their families quickly over to beat

the imaginary deadline, to beat the triggering

The government has repeatedly said it had hoped to do a deal with other

EU countries by now, but negotiations are taking

We would appreciate immensely if the government will give clear

guidance on what the next steps are and what will be the rules

British citizens living in the EU are also unsure what will happen.

Madrid is now home to Bristolian Fiona Haughton who lives

She can't become Spanish so she applied for an Irish passport.

I have never considered myself an Irish citizen before.

My mum is actually Northern Irish so I don't think she'd ever

considered herself an Irish citizen before that she's now got

I've got EU residency for as I want it, I can stay in Spain,

I can move somewhere else, I've got freedom of travel.

But for some the uncertainty has been the final straw.

Wojtek is selling his home in Bridgwater.

He's been a lorry driver here for the last ten years

and he loves this country, even the thing that

If you've got a couple of sunny days, you're so happy you've got

them you appreciate sunny days so much.

He thought about returning to Poland before but Brexit convinced him.

After the referendum half of the people are not entirely happy

with you here so it doesn't matter what you do.

If you're picking up kids in the morning or leaving them

at school or going to the pub, whatever, you've still

Half of the people are not entirely happy with you.

He and many like him feel the government is playing

with their future so he and his family will now build

And, of course, we wish you well Wojtek.

Molly, why would the rest of the EU guarantees that our citizens can

I think that's a really good question.

Is incredibly sad to see someone like Wojtek there really

saying that he now feels unwelcome and he's wondering

who in the playground doesn't want him and his

That's a really sad outcome from the whole Brexit

To answer your question, I think this is a real opportunity

that has been missed because of we had gone

in at the beginning and said, OK, we've decided to leave

but will protect all EU citizens who are already

here and all their rights then the European countries would

And all this heartache could have been avoided.

All the statements from government have said we're just waiting

So, it's them playing hardball, not the government.

We've said we are going to change the conditions so we should have

made a firm offer at the beginning to protect all EU citizens

here and then the same offer would have come back,

It was clear from that side and to reason made's statement

that those people were going to be disappointment bargaining chips

But, actually, I'm not sure about the exact words

but they are bargaining chips at the moment, aren't they?

The Prime Minister has made it clear this is the absolute priority.

We are expecting this to be resolved as quickly as possible.

Why not make a big generous offer now.

Just say, of course, we're not going to send people home.

The Prime Minister couldn't have been more public in her intentions

on this and we just need the reciprocal deals to come back.

It's the question now of crossing the Ts.

We wish it could have been done sooner.

It's the absolute priority set out clearly in the White Paper and it's

an important thing is part of the negotiations going forward.

We were told, won't we, that all these negotiations

The first step, actually, just guaranteeing Brits in Spain

The EU is going to be playing hardball.

There are going to be ups and downs and we'll play hardball as well.

I'm grateful that, in the Prime Minister,

we've got someone who is very strong when it comes to negotiations.

Would you play hardball on this issue?

We don't need to because there is consensus from the government

It's just a question of organising the paperwork and rules to make

Even the people in our film thought it was contentious.

Well, they shouldn't do because there is a well

from our government and our European neighbours and friends to have this

We wish it had been done by now and, on this one, it hasn't yet,

but remember that the overall negotiations will take

I think all this chat about hardball and tough negotiations and upping

the anti is unhelpful and it is economically

In Bournemouth is a big drop-off in people applying to language

school and we are seeing the same with foreign students coming

There's a sense of people not being welcome and that's really

economically damaging because some of our most

important service exports are in the field of education.

On the other hand, people voted to leave and immigration

was undoubtedly a big issue in that decision.

A lot of people feel there are too many immigrants here.

OK, so the question of immigration is very confused and complicated.

We're not talking about immigration as such here, we talking

It's a reciprocal right so European people can come here and we can go

to their countries so it benefited both of us and that's

British people, especially British young people,

can still travel and study and work abroad.

This is the government White Paper which I've been studying.

According to the government, there are about a million Poles

here but when you look over the page to seep how many Brits

there are in Poland is probably a couple of hundred or a thousand

or so so why would you want to guarantee their rights, but...?

It's not a direct transfer like that.

British people often retired to Spain and France are not

necessarily go to Poland whereas Polish bricklayers

The important point is that these discussions are already happening

at the European level because there are problems caused

in Poland if all their young, skilled people come here.

In the case of Lithuania, out of 4 million people,

1 million are actually living abroad and that's all the

Actually, the Greens and Peasant party won the election in Lithuania

issue recently on the point about trying to bring

Yes, free movement will be restricted when we leave, isn't it,

Yes, well, if we are outside the single market it will.

But I still think it will be very economically damaging

Are people prepared to trade off the loss of their jobs,

their income and higher prices against restricting immigration

and the survey shows they're not prepared to lose anything

financially in order to restrict immigration.

That's the doomsday scenario that lost the referendum last year.

The reality is that since the referendum are economy

is the strongest going of any of the major developed economies.

The Bank of England yet again revised up growth figures.

We have record employment in every single region of the country,

we have a clear sign we are open for trade.

Two thirds of our expats live in other countries outside the EU

But rightly we've got to make sure arrangements are reciprocal

and it's something we'll get done as possible.

All the predictions of economic catastrophe so far at least

I think it's fair to say nothing has actually changed

because we are still members of the EE you.

The main change that's happened so far is there's been a fall

in the pound and farms today were saying that's very difficult

because they also produce goods and import ingredients and those

are much more expensive so there are already economic effects.

I expect we'll return to this topic again, don't you?

Let's whiz through the political news in the West in 60 seconds.

This was the week some say turkeys voted for Christmas.

Well, six out of our nine councils in Dorset voted to abolish

The Secretary of State will now decide.

Gloucestershire Council published the cod contract for a controversial

It's thought it had hidden sensitive details but basic computer skills

Two of Bristol's Labour MPs defied Jeremy Corbyn's

They voted against triggering Article 50 saying it was

And crowds gathered in Cheltenham, Swindon and Bristol to protest

And more people in Bristol West signed a petition against a Trump

state visit than in any other in constituency.

Molly, I guess probably you're not a fan.

But do you think his policies, particularly

on immigration, might actually do be quite popular here?

I think the problem is we don't really know what

He will tweet one thing then something completely

We've seen a great deal of opposition to him coming here and

regardless what people think of his policies,

it's really his attitude towards women, towards people of

different race and his really quite frankly white supremacist friends

I don't think we should pay him this honour of a state visit.

But if you look at the polls in this country there is quite a lot of

I think 49% say they would quite like the same restrictions on

those seven countries that he has put in.

Because I think people are whipped up into a sort of frenzy of

concerned that isn't about rational policy-making.

If you look at the seven countries where he's banned

people from going into the US, there hasn't been a single terrorist

attack from anyone in any of those countries so it's nothing to do with

It's to do with using fear against certain

Justin, do you think the Prime Minister made

a bit of a slip-up going so quickly and holding hands?

What you and I would do in terms of voting in

the American elections is irrelevant.

We may find his policies up rent and I suspect they will be

counter-productive but the reality is we have a special relationship

with America that's gone back gone back from when Churchill, we fought

wars together, trade agreements and that

will be in place long beyond

when President Trump is holding high office.

We have a duty because we are respected worldwide to engage,

We've had many leaders come to visit this

country of questionable morals, questionable policies but we do that

because we have important roles to play in the global scene.

Do you think it's important we get a trade

reputation for being a country that defends human rights and if we carry

on because of our weakness coming out of the European Union making

friends with someone with someone who has such

think it will really damage our international

standing at just the

Would you push for a trade deal all say we would rather be poorer?

I don't think that would be good for the south-west.

My thanks to my guests Justin Tomlinson and Molly Scott Cato.

programme at another time an airport expansion, but thank you to both of

you for being here. Back to you, Andrew.

Will the Government's plan to boost house-building

Could a handful of Conservative MPs cause problems for

And what is President Trump going to do next?

You have been following the genesis of this housing white paper. What do

you make of it? I think it will be quite spectacular, pretty radical

stuff. We heard bits about beating up on developers. I understand it

will be a whack, walk, covering every single problem with housing

supply and trying to solve it. Which means bad news if you are a huge fan

of the green belt, because they will go round that the other way by

forcing large quotas on councils are making it down to councils where

they build. If you fill up your brown space in towns they will have

to trigger the exceptional circumstances bit of the bill to

beat on green belts. Beating up developers, opening up the market

for renters across the board. And Theresa May, one of the most

defining thing she could do on the domestic agenda. I am not as excited

as Tom about this. I look back to 2004, do you remember the Kate

Barker report? Successive governments, successive prime

ministers have been promising to address the housing shortage. In

2004 Kate Barker recommended hundreds of thousands new homes.

Gordon Brown talked about 3 million new homes by 2020 in 2007. It never

happens. The reason is at the end of the day this is local politics,

local councillors need to keep their seats and they won't keep their

seats if there are hugely controversial developments locally

that they support. Yes, the government can and are proposing to

overrule councils that don't back local developments, but they may

find themselves completely inundated with those cases. I think that is

the whole point of it, to take on those NIMBY often Tory councils and

force them to build. I can't think of a better defining issue for

Theresa May than sticking one in the eye of some quite well off half Tory

countryside councils. The government gives councils a quota of homes they

have to fill, if they don't have to fill that all run out overland to

fill the quota, the government then comes in and tells them they have to

built on the green belt? How is that going to work? At the moment the

green belt is absolutely sacrosanct in British politics. They'll have to

do some work on educating people on what green belts means. Potato

farms, golf courses... At the moment the idea people have of the green

belt being verdant fields needs to be dismantled. You are right. I

agree with Tom, 11 million people in the private rental sector in the UK.

In the last election more voted Labour than conservative. This is an

area where Theresa May would look to expand her vote. The problem has

always been, the same problem we have with pension policy and why

pensioners have done better than working families in recent years.

They are older and they vote more and anything to the detriment of

older people. I wonder how they will get private money to come in on

anything like this go they would need to have a huge expansion? There

is a huge amount of speculation and one of the thing that locks up the

system as you have people buying land, taking out a stake of land in

the hope that one point it may at some point free up. At the end of

the day, unless you have councils far more willing to quickly fast

track these applications, which they won't for the reason I said before,

it's a very long-term investment. Ed Miliband proposed three-year leases

in which the rent could only go up by an agreed formula, probably the

three years to give the young families a certain stability over

that period. He had a use it or lose it rules for planning development,

if you don't use it you lose the planning rights. Somebody else gets

it. The Tories disparaged that at the time. This is at the centre of

their policy now. This is probably item number four of

Ed Miliband's policy book Theresa May has wholesale pinched in the

last six months or so. Why not? I think if you look at the change in

mood across housing and planning over the last 5-6 years, it used to

be an issue very much of green belt versus London planners. Now you have

grandparents living in houses in the countryside, knowing their

grandchildren can't get on the housing ladder any longer. Maybe a

bit more intervention in the market, tougher on renting conditions, maybe

that is exactly what the country needs. Will they meet the 1 million

target? It would be a defiance of every political thing that has

happened in the last ten years. I think Tom is right, if there is only

one difference between Theresa May and David Cameron it's the

willingness of the state to intervene. When Ed Miliband said

that he was seen as communism, but Theresa May can get away with it.

How serious is this talk of a couple of dozen Tories who were very loyal

over voting for the principle of Article 50 but may now be tempted to

vote for some amendments to Article 50 legislation that they would find

quite attractive? I think that threat has certainly been taken

seriously by levers. I spoke to the campaign group Leaves Means Leave

last night. The figure they mentioned was up to 20 remaining

Tories. That sounds a lot to me but that is what they are concerned

about and those Tories would come together with Labour and the SNP to

vote for that amendment. Although that amendment sounds rather nice

and democratic, actually in the eyes of many levers that is a wrecking

amendment. Because what you are doing is giving Parliament a sort of

veto over whatever deal Theresa May brings back. What they want is the

vote to be before that deal is finalised. It isn't necessarily the

case that if Parliament decided they didn't like that deal we would just

go to WTO, we would fall out of the European Union. There are mixed

views as to whether we might remain in and things could be extended. My

understanding is the people making the amendments, they won any deal

that is done to be brought to Parliament in time, so that if

Parliament fancies it it's done, but if it does and it doesn't just mean

go to WTO rules. There will be time to go back, renegotiate or think

again? The question is where it puts Britain's negotiating hand. Nine of

the options... Once we trigger Article 50 the two negotiation

begins on the power switches to Europe. They can run out the clock

and it will be worse for us than them. I don't think either option is

particularly appealing. I think what seems like a rather Serena week for

Article 50 this week isn't going to be reflective of what will happen

next. The way the government's position is at the moment, if at the

end the only choice Parliament has is to vote for the deal or crash out

on WTO rules, then even the remainder is going to vote for the

deal even if they don't like it, because they would regard crashing

out as the worst of all possible results. Possibly. It will be a

great game of bluff if Theresa May fights off any of these amendments

on Wednesday and gets a straightforward deal or no Deal

vote. I have a funny feeling this amendment, if it's chosen, we must

remember because we don't know if they will choose this amendment, if

it does go to a vote on Wednesday it will be very tight indeed. Remember,

one final thing Theresa May can do if she gets Parliament voting

against, as Isabel would have it, she could try to get a new

parliament and go for a general election. And probably get a huge

majority to do so. The Lords, it goes there after the February

recess. They are very pro-Europe, but does their instinct for

self-preservation override that? I think that is it. A Tory Lord said

this morning I will vote to block it on a conscience measure, but you

have the likes of Bill Cash, veteran Eurosceptics, suddenly converted to

the Lords reform saying is an outrage. I doubt they will vote for

their own demise, to hasten their own demise by blocking it. What did

you make of Doctor Gorka smart fascinating. Cut from the same cloth

as his boss. I thought it was extraordinary listening to him,

saying everything is going dutifully to plan. But at the end of the day,

what they are doing is what people in America voted for Trump to do. If

you look at Lord Ashcroft's polling on why America voted for Trump, they

went into this with their eyes wide open. One of the top fears among

American voters, particularly Republican leading ones was

America's immigration policy is or could be letting in terror arrests.

As far as he is concerned, he is doing what he was elected to do.

This whole year is turning into a wonderful year long lecture series

on how democracy works at a fundamental level. I'm not sure

anyone wanted it but it's what we've got. This same in the way we've been

talking about direct democracy and Parliamentary democracy. The same is

happening in America between executive and judicial branches. We

are seeing the limits of presidential power. Regardless of

the fact that people voted for Trump they voted for senators. The judge

who blocks this was appointed by George W Bush. So-called Judge

Eckert Mac so-called George W Bush! It's fascinating we're having all

these conversations now that I never bought five years ago we would be

having at such a fundamental level. Has the media yet worked out how to

cover the Trump administration or has he got us behaving like headless

chickens? He says something incendiary and we all run over to do

that and when you pick it off it turns out not to be as incendiary as

we thought? And then back doing something and we all rush over

there. Is he making fools of us? Is exactly what he did in the election

campaign. So many quick and fast outrageous comments frontrunner on a

daily basis, no one single one of them had full news cycle time to be

pored over and examined. I think there is a problem with this.

Although he keeps the upper hand, keeps the agenda and keeps on the

populist ground, the problem is it easy to campaign like that. If you

are governing in a state of semi-hysteria, I wonder how long the

American public will be comfortable with that. They don't really want

their government to be swirling chaos all the time, as fascinating

as it might be on TV. They will be exhausted by it, I already am. I

have been interviewing White House administration official since 1976

and that is the first time someone hasn't given me a straight answer on

America supporting the EU. That is a different world.

Jo Coburn will be on BBC Two tomorrow at midday with

the Daily Politics - and I'll be back here

Remember, if it's Sunday - it's the Sunday Politics.

TV: He's not your father. WOMAN GASPS

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