05/03/2017 Sunday Politics West


05/03/2017

Andrew Neil talks to David Lidington about Brexit and discusses the upcoming Budget with Paul Johnson of the IFS. The programme also looks at Islamist terrorism in the UK.


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Transcript


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It's Sunday Morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:41.

The Chancellor says that to embark on a spending spree

:00:42.:00:44.

in Wednesday's Budget would be "reckless".

:00:45.:00:46.

But will there be more money for social care and to ease

:00:47.:00:49.

The UK terror threat is currently severe,

:00:50.:00:55.

but where is that threat coming from?

:00:56.:00:57.

We have the detailed picture from a vast new study of every

:00:58.:01:00.

Islamist related terrorist offence committed over the last two decades.

:01:01.:01:04.

What can we learn from these offences to thwart future attacks?

:01:05.:01:11.

The government was defeated in the Lords on its

:01:12.:01:13.

In the West - police cuts. of Commons what he'll do if peers

:01:14.:01:19.

Our forces budgets have been squeezed for years,

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but is the thin blue line now too thin?

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All that coming up in the next hour and a quarter.

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Now, some of you might have read that intruders managed

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to get into the BBC news studios this weekend.

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Well three of them appear not to have been ejected yet,

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so we might as well make use of them as our political panel.

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme.

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Philip Hammond will deliver his second financial

:02:00.:02:05.

statement as Chancellor and the last Spring Budget

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for a while at least - they are moving to the Autumn

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There's been pressure on him to find more money

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for the Health Service, social care, schools funding,

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But this morning the Chancellor insisted that he will not be

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using the proceeds of better than expected tax receipts to embark

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What is being speculated on is whether we might not have borrowed

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quite as much as we were forecast to borrow. You will see the numbers on

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Wednesday. But if your bank increases your credit card limit, I

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do not think you feel obliged to go out and spent every last penny of it

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He is moving the budget to the autumn, he told us that in his

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statement, so maybe on Wednesday it will be like a spring statement

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rather than a full-blown budget. Tinkering pre-Brexit and in November

:03:07.:03:10.

he will have a more clear idea of the impact of Brexit and I suspect

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that will be the bigger event than this one. It looks as if there will

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be a bit of money here and there, small amounts, not enough in my

:03:20.:03:24.

view, for social care and so on, possibly a review of social care

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policy. A familiar device which rarely get anywhere. I think he has

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got a bit more space to do more if he wanted to do now because of the

:03:34.:03:38.

politics. They are miles ahead in the polls, so he could do more, but

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it is not in his character, he is cautious. So he keeps his powder dry

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on most things, he does some things, but he keeps it dry until November.

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But also, as Steve says, he will know just how strong the economy has

:03:57.:04:00.

been this year by November and whether he needs to do some pump

:04:01.:04:04.

priming or whether everything is fine. He said it is too early to

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make those sorts of judgments now. What is striking is the amount of

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concern there is an Number ten and in the Treasury about the tone of

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this budget, so less about the actual figures and more about what

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message this is sending out to the rest of the world. I think some

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senior MPs are calling it a kind of treading water budget and Phil

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Hammond has got quite a difficult act to perform because he is

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instinctively rather cautious, or very cautious, and instinctively

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slightly gloomy about Brexit. He wanted to remain. But he does not

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want this budget to sounded downbeat and he will be mauled if he makes it

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sound downbeat, so he has to inject a little bit of optimism and we may

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see that in the infrastructure spending plans. He has got some room

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to manoeuvre. The deficit by the financial year ending in April we

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now know will not be as big as the OBR told us only three and a half

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months ago that it would be. They added 12 billion on and they may

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take most of that off again. He is under pressure from his own side to

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do something on social care and business rates and I bet some Tory

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backbenchers would not mind a little bit more money for the NHS as well.

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He is on a huge pressure to do a whole lot on a whole load, not just

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social care. There is also how on earth do we pay for so many old

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people? There is the NHS, defence spending, everything. But his words

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this morning, which is I am not going to spend potentially an extra

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30 billion I might have by 2020 because of improved economic growth

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was interesting. You need to hold something back because Brexit might

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go back and he was a bit of a remain campaign person. If you think

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Britain is going to curl up into a corner and hideaway licking its

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wounds, you have got another think coming. That 30 billion he might

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have extra in his pocket could be worth deploying on building up

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Britain with huge tax cuts in case there is no deal, a war chest if you

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like. He will have more than 27 billion. He may decide 27 billion in

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the statement, the margin by which he tries to get the structural

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deficit down, he will still have 27 billion. If the receipts are better

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than they are forecast, some people are saying he will have a war chest

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of 60 billion. That money, as Mr Osborne found out, can disappear. He

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clearly is planning not to go on a spending spree this Wednesday. It is

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interesting in the FTB and the day, David Laws who was chief Secretary

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for five minutes, was also enthusiastic about the original

:07:07.:07:09.

George Osborne austerity programme and he said, we have reached the

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limits to what is socially possible with this and a consensus is

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beginning to emerge that he will have to spend more money than he

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plans to this Wednesday. This is not just from Labour MPs, but from a lot

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of Conservative MPs as well. People will wonder when this austerity will

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end because it seems to be going on for ever. We will have more on the

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budget later in the programme. Now, the government was defeated

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last week in the House of Lords. Peers amended the bill that

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will allow Theresa May to trigger Brexit to guarantee the rights of EU

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nationals currently in the UK. The government says it will remove

:07:43.:07:45.

the amendment when the bill returns But today a report from

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the Common's Brexit committee also calls for the Government to make

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a unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU

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nationals living here. If the worst happened,

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are we actually going to say to 3 million Europeans here,

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who are nurses, doctors, serving us tea and coffee in restaurants,

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giving lectures at Leeds University, picking and processing vegetables,

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"Right, off you go"? No, of course we are not

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going to say that. So, why not end the

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uncertainty for them now? will help to create the climate

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which will ensure everyone gets to say because that's

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what all of us want. That is why we have unanimously

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agreed this recommendation that the government should make unilateral

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decision to say to EU citizens here, yes, you can stay, because we think

:08:42.:08:44.

that is the right and fair thing to do.

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And we're joined now from Buckinghamshire by the leader

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of the House of Commons, David Lidington.

:08:49.:08:52.

Welcome back to the programme. The House of Lords has amended the

:08:53.:08:58.

Article 50 bill to allow the unilateral acceptance of EU

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nationals' right to remain in the UK. Is it still the government was

:09:02.:09:05.

my intention to remove that amendment in the comments? We have

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always been clear that we think this bill is very straightforward, it

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does nothing else except give the Prime Minister the authority that

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the courts insist upon to start the Article 50 process of negotiating

:09:21.:09:25.

with the other 27 EU countries. On the particular issue of EU citizens

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here and British citizens overseas, the PM did suggest that the December

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European summit last year that we do a pre-negotiation agreement on this.

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That was not acceptable to all of the other 27 because they took the

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view that you cannot have any kind of negotiation and to Article 50 has

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been triggered. That is where we are. I hope with goodwill and

:09:54.:09:57.

national self interest on all sides we can tackle this is right that the

:09:58.:10:02.

start of those negotiations. But it is not just the Lords. We have now

:10:03.:10:06.

got the cross-party Commons Brexit committee saying you should now make

:10:07.:10:11.

the unilateral decision to safeguard the rights of EU nationals in the

:10:12.:10:19.

UK. Even Michael go, Peter Lilley, John Whittington, agree. So why are

:10:20.:10:25.

you so stubborn on this issue? I think this is a complex issue that

:10:26.:10:30.

goes beyond the rise of presidents, but about things like the rights of

:10:31.:10:35.

access to health care, to pension ratings and benefits and so on...

:10:36.:10:43.

But you could settle back. It is also, Andrew, because you have got

:10:44.:10:47.

to look at it from the point of view of the British citizens, well over 1

:10:48.:10:51.

million living elsewhere in Europe. If we make the unilateral gesture,

:10:52.:10:56.

it might make us feel good for Britain and it would help in the

:10:57.:11:00.

short term those EU citizens who are here, but you have got those British

:11:01.:11:06.

citizens overseas who would then be potential bargaining chips in the

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hands of any of the 27 other governments. We do not know who will

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be in office during the negotiations and they may have completely

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extraneous reasons to hold up the agreement on the rights of British

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citizens. The sensible way to deal with this is 28 mature democracies

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getting around the table starting the negotiations and to agree to

:11:31.:11:33.

something that is fair to all sides and is reciprocal. What countries

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might take on UK nationals living in the EU? What countries are you

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frightened of? The one thing that I know from my own experience in the

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past of being involved in European negotiations is that issues come up

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that maybe have nothing to do with British nationals, but another issue

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that matters a huge amount to a particular government, it may not be

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a government yet in office, and they decide we can get something out of

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this, so let's hold up the agreement on British citizens until the

:12:13.:12:16.

British move in the direction we want on issue X. I hope it does not

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come to that. I think the messages I have had from EU ambassadors in

:12:23.:12:27.

London and from those it my former Europe colleague ministers is that

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we want this to be a done deal as quickly as possible. That is the

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British Government's very clear intention. We hope that we can get a

:12:36.:12:41.

reciprocal deal agreed before the Article 50 process. That was not

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possible. I understand that, you have said that already. But even if

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there is no reciprocal deal being done, is it really credible that EU

:12:52.:12:55.

nationals already here would lose their right to live and work and

:12:56.:13:01.

face deportation? You know that is not credible, that will not happen.

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We have already under our own system law whereby some people who have

:13:10.:13:14.

been lawfully resident and working here for five years can apply for

:13:15.:13:19.

permanent residency, but it is not just about residents. It is about

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whether residency carries with it certain rights of access to health

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care. I understand that, but have made this point. But the point is

:13:28.:13:34.

the right to live and work here that worries them at the moment. The Home

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Secretary has said there can be no change in their status without a

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vote in parliament. Could you ever imagine the British Parliament

:13:46.:13:48.

voting to remove their right to live and work here? I think the British

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Parliament will want to be very fair to EU citizens, as Hilary Benn and

:13:55.:14:02.

others rightly say they have been overwhelmingly been here working

:14:03.:14:06.

hard and paying taxes and contributing to our society. They

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were equally want to make sure there is a fair deal for our own citizens,

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more than a million, elsewhere in Europe. You cannot disentangle the

:14:15.:14:18.

issue of residence from those things that go with residents. Is the

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Article 50 timetabled to be triggered before the end of this

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month, is it threatened by these amendments in the Lords? I sincerely

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hope not because the House of Lords is a perfectly respectable

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constitutional role to look again at bills sent up by the House of

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commons. But they also have understood traditionally that as an

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unelected house they have to give primacy to the elected Commons at

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the end of the day. In this case it is not just the elected Commons that

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sent the bill to be amended, but the referendum that lies behind that. It

:14:59.:15:07.

is not possible? We are confident we can get Article 50 triggered by the

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end of the month. One of the other Lords amendments

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will be to have a meaningful vote on the Brexit deal when it is done at

:15:17.:15:20.

the end of the process, what is your view on that? What would you

:15:21.:15:25.

understand by a meaningful vote? The Government has already said there is

:15:26.:15:30.

going to be a meaningful vote at the end of the process. What do you mean

:15:31.:15:36.

by a meaningful vote? The parliament will get the opportunity to vote on

:15:37.:15:40.

the deal before it finishes the EU level process of going to

:15:41.:15:43.

consideration by the European Parliament. Parliament will be given

:15:44.:15:50.

a choice, as I understand, for either a vote for the deal you have

:15:51.:15:56.

negotiated or we leave on WTO rules and crash out anyway, is that what

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you mean by a meaningful choice? Parliament will get the choice to

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vote on the deal, but I think you have put your finger on the problem

:16:07.:16:10.

with trying to write something into the bill because any idea that the

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PM's freedom to negotiate is limited, any idea that if the EU 27

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were to play hardball, that somehow that means parliament would take

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fright, reverse the referendum verdict and set aside the views of

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the British people, that would almost guarantee that it would be

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much more difficult to get the sort of ambitious mutually beneficial

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deal for us and the EU 27. Your idea of a meaningful vote in parliament

:16:43.:16:46.

is the choices either to vote to accept this deal or we leave anyway,

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that is your idea of a meaningful vote. The Article 50 process is

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straightforward. There is the position of both parties in the

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recent Supreme Court case that the Article 50 process once triggered is

:17:04.:17:12.

irrevocable. That is in the EU Treaty already but we are saying

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very clearly that Parliament will get that right to debate and vote. I

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think the problem with what some in the House of Lords are proposing, I

:17:25.:17:28.

hope it is not a majority, is that the amendments they would seek to

:17:29.:17:33.

insert would tie the Prime Minister's hands, limit and

:17:34.:17:36.

negotiating freedom and put her in a more difficult position to negotiate

:17:37.:17:39.

on behalf of this country than should be the case. One year ago you

:17:40.:17:44.

said it could take six to eight years to agree a free-trade deal

:17:45.:17:48.

with the EU. Now you think you can do it in two, what's changed your

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mind? There is a very strong passionate supporter of Remain, as

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you know. I hope very much we are able to conclude not just the terms

:18:09.:18:12.

of the exit deal but the agreement that we are seeking on the long-term

:18:13.:18:18.

trade relationship... I understand that, but I'm trying to work out,

:18:19.:18:24.

what makes you think you can do it in two years when only a year ago

:18:25.:18:29.

you said it would take up to wait? The referendum clearly makes a big

:18:30.:18:34.

difference, and I think that there is an understanding amongst real the

:18:35.:18:40.

other 27 governments now that it is in everybody's interests to sort

:18:41.:18:47.

this shared challenge out of negotiating a new relationship

:18:48.:18:52.

between the EU 27 and the UK because European countries, those in and

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those who will be out of the EU, share the need to face up to massive

:18:56.:19:04.

challenges like terrorism and technological change. All of that

:19:05.:19:07.

was pretty obvious one year ago but we will see what happens. Thank you,

:19:08.:19:10.

David Lidington. Now, the Sunday Politics has had

:19:11.:19:12.

sight of a major new report The thousand-page study,

:19:13.:19:15.

which researchers say is the most comprehensive ever produced,

:19:16.:19:20.

analyses all 269 Islamist telated terrorist offences

:19:21.:19:26.

committed between 1998-2015. Most planned attacks were,

:19:27.:19:29.

thankfully, thwarted, but what can we learn

:19:30.:19:31.

from those offences? For the police and the intelligence

:19:32.:19:32.

agencies to fight terror, Researchers at the security think

:19:33.:19:42.

tank The Henry Jackson Society gave us early access to their huge

:19:43.:19:49.

new report which analyses every Islamism related attack

:19:50.:19:59.

and prosecution in the UK since 1998, that's 269 cases

:20:00.:20:01.

involving 253 perpetrators. With issues as sensitive

:20:02.:20:05.

as counterterrorism and counter radicalisation, it is really

:20:06.:20:08.

important to have an evidence base from which you draw

:20:09.:20:10.

policy and policing, This isn't my opinion,

:20:11.:20:12.

this the facts. This chart shows the number

:20:13.:20:17.

of cases each year combined with a small number

:20:18.:20:19.

of successful suicide attacks. Notice the peak in the middle

:20:20.:20:24.

of the last decade around the time of the 7/7 bombings

:20:25.:20:26.

in London in 2005. Offences tailed off,

:20:27.:20:30.

before rising again from 2010, when a three-year period accounted

:20:31.:20:33.

for a third of all the terrorism cases since the researchers

:20:34.:20:36.

started counting. What we are seeing is a combination

:20:37.:20:41.

of both more offending, in terms of the threat increasing,

:20:42.:20:45.

we know that from the security services and police statements,

:20:46.:20:48.

but also I believe we are getting more efficient in terms

:20:49.:20:51.

of our policing and we are actually A third of people were found to have

:20:52.:20:53.

facilitated terrorism, that's providing encouragement,

:20:54.:21:02.

documents, money. About 18% of people

:21:03.:21:05.

were aspirational terrorists, 12% of convictions were related

:21:06.:21:08.

to travel, to training And 37% of people were convicted

:21:09.:21:14.

of planning attacks, although the methods have

:21:15.:21:22.

changed over time. Five or six years ago,

:21:23.:21:26.

we saw lots of people planning or attempting pipe bombs and most

:21:27.:21:30.

of the time they had Inspire magazine in their possession,

:21:31.:21:33.

that's a magazine, an Al-Qaeda English-language online

:21:34.:21:36.

magazine that had specific More recently we have seen

:21:37.:21:38.

Islamic State encouraging people to engage in lower tech knife

:21:39.:21:43.

beheading, stabbings attacks and I think that's why we have

:21:44.:21:46.

seen that more recently. Shasta Khan plotted with her

:21:47.:21:49.

husband to bomb the Jewish In 2012 she received

:21:50.:21:53.

an eight-year prison sentence. She's one of an increasing

:21:54.:21:58.

number of women convicted of an Islamism related offence

:21:59.:22:03.

although it is still overwhelmingly a crime carried out

:22:04.:22:05.

by men in their 20s. Despite fears of foreign terrorists,

:22:06.:22:09.

a report says the vast Most have their home in London,

:22:10.:22:11.

around 43% of them. 18% lived in the West Midlands,

:22:12.:22:20.

particularly in Birmingham, and the north-west is another

:22:21.:22:23.

hotspot with around 10% Richard Dart lived in Weymouth

:22:24.:22:25.

and tried to attend a terrorist He was a convert to Islam, as were

:22:26.:22:32.

60% of the people in this report. He was a convert to Islam, as were

:22:33.:22:41.

16% of the people in this report. Like the majority of cases,

:22:42.:22:45.

he had a family, network. What's particularly interesting

:22:46.:22:47.

is how different each story is in many ways,

:22:48.:22:50.

but then within those differences So your angry young men,

:22:51.:22:53.

in the one sense inspired to travel, seek training and combat experience

:22:54.:23:02.

abroad, and then the older, recruiter father-figure types,

:23:03.:23:08.

the fundraising facilitator types. There are types within

:23:09.:23:10.

this terrorism picture, but the range of backgrounds

:23:11.:23:13.

and experiences is huge. And three quarters of those

:23:14.:23:19.

convicted of Islamist terrorism were on the radar of the authorities

:23:20.:23:21.

because they had a previous criminal record, they had

:23:22.:23:24.

made their extremism public, or because MI5 had them

:23:25.:23:28.

under surveillance. To discuss the findings of this

:23:29.:23:33.

report are the former Security Minister Pauline Neville-Jones,

:23:34.:23:41.

Talha Ahmad from the Muslim Council of Britain, and Adam Deen

:23:42.:23:43.

from the anti-extremist group The report finds the most segregated

:23:44.:23:58.

Muslim community is, the more likely it is to incubate Islamist

:23:59.:24:04.

terrorists, what is the MCB doing to encourage more integrated

:24:05.:24:08.

communities? Its track record on calling for reaching out to the

:24:09.:24:12.

wider society and having a more integrated and cohesive society I

:24:13.:24:16.

think is a pretty strong one, so one thing we are doing for example very

:24:17.:24:22.

recently I've seen we had this visit my mosque initiative, the idea was

:24:23.:24:26.

that mosques become open to inviting people of other faiths and their

:24:27.:24:29.

neighbours to come so we were encouraged to see so many

:24:30.:24:35.

participating. It is one step forward. Is it a good thing or a bad

:24:36.:24:41.

thing that in a number of Muslim communities, the Muslim population

:24:42.:24:46.

is over 60% of the community? I personally and the council would

:24:47.:24:50.

prefer to have more mixed communities but one of the reason

:24:51.:24:53.

they are heavily concentrated is not so much because they prefer to but

:24:54.:24:58.

often because the socio- economic reality forces them to. But you

:24:59.:25:03.

would like to see less segregation? Absolutely, we would prefer more

:25:04.:25:07.

diverse communities around the country. What is your reaction to

:25:08.:25:12.

that? Will need more diverse communities but one of the

:25:13.:25:16.

challenges we have right now with certain organisations is this

:25:17.:25:20.

pushback against the Government, with its attempts to help young

:25:21.:25:23.

Muslims not go down this journey of extremism. One of those things is

:25:24.:25:29.

the Prevent strategy and we often hear organisations like the MCB

:25:30.:25:32.

attacking the strategy which is counter-productive. What do you say

:25:33.:25:38.

to that? Do we support the Government have initiatives to

:25:39.:25:43.

counteract terrorism, of course we do. Do you support the Prevent

:25:44.:25:48.

strategy? We don't because it scapegoats an entire community. The

:25:49.:25:54.

report shows that contrary to a lot of lone wolf theories and people

:25:55.:25:58.

being radicalised in their bedrooms on the Internet that 80% of those

:25:59.:26:02.

convicted had connections with the extremist groups. Indeed 25% willing

:26:03.:26:22.

to Al-Muhajiroun. I think this report, which is a thorough piece of

:26:23.:26:28.

work, charts a long period and it is probably true to say that in the

:26:29.:26:33.

earlier stages these organisations were very important, of course

:26:34.:26:36.

subsequently we have had direct recruiting by IS one to one over the

:26:37.:26:42.

Internet so we have a mixed picture of how people are recruited but

:26:43.:26:46.

there's no doubt these organisations are recruiting sergeants. You were

:26:47.:26:50.

once a member of one of these organisations, are we doing enough

:26:51.:26:59.

to thwart them? If we just focus on these organisations, we will fail.

:27:00.:27:08.

We -- the question is are we doing enough to neutralise them? The

:27:09.:27:11.

Government strategy is in the right place, but where we need to focus on

:27:12.:27:17.

is the Muslim community or communities. The Muslim community

:27:18.:27:22.

must realise that these violent extremists are fringe but they share

:27:23.:27:27.

ideas, a broad spectrum of ideas that penetrate deeply within Muslim

:27:28.:27:30.

communities and we need to tackle those ideas because that is where it

:27:31.:27:35.

all begins. Are you in favour of banning groups like Al-Muhajiroun?

:27:36.:27:42.

Yes, it was the right thing to do and I can tell you the community has

:27:43.:27:47.

moved a long way, Al-Muhajiroun does not have support. Do you agree with

:27:48.:27:54.

that? Yes, but it is very simplistic attacking Al-Muhajiroun. ISIS didn't

:27:55.:28:02.

bring about extremism, extremism brought about ISIS, ISIS is just the

:28:03.:28:06.

brand and if we don't deal with the ideological ideas we will have other

:28:07.:28:11.

organisations popping up. The report suggests that almost a quarter of

:28:12.:28:18.

Islamist the latest offences were committed by individuals previous

:28:19.:28:23.

unknown to the security services. And this is on the rise, these

:28:24.:28:28.

numbers. This would seem to make an already difficult task for our

:28:29.:28:30.

intelligence services almost impossible. Two points. It is over

:28:31.:28:37.

80% I think were known, but it shows the intelligence services and police

:28:38.:28:45.

have got their eyes open. But the trend has been towards more not on

:28:46.:28:50.

the radar. That has been because the nature of the recruitment has also

:28:51.:28:56.

changed and you have much more ISIS inspired go out and do it yourself,

:28:57.:29:04.

get a knife, do something simple, so we have fewer of the big

:29:05.:29:08.

spectaculars that ISIS organised. Now you have got locally organised

:29:09.:29:17.

people, two or three people get together, do something together,

:29:18.:29:21.

very much harder actually to get forewarning of that. That is where

:29:22.:29:28.

intelligence inside the community, the community coming to the police

:29:29.:29:34.

say I'm worried about my friend, this is how you get ahead of that

:29:35.:29:40.

kind of attack. Should people in the Muslim community who are worried

:29:41.:29:43.

about individuals being radicalised, perhaps going down the terrorist

:29:44.:29:47.

route, should they bring in the police? Absolutely and we have been

:29:48.:29:53.

consistent on telling the community that wherever they suspect someone

:29:54.:29:57.

has been involved in terrorism or any kind of criminal activity, they

:29:58.:30:01.

should call the police and cooperate. As the so-called

:30:02.:30:09.

caliphate collapses in the Middle East, how worried should we be about

:30:10.:30:10.

fighters returning here? Extremely worried. They fall into

:30:11.:30:24.

three categories. You have ones who are disillusioned about Islamic

:30:25.:30:28.

State. You have ones who are disturbed, and then you have the

:30:29.:30:30.

dangerous who have not disavowed their ideas and who will have great

:30:31.:30:36.

reasons to perform attacks. What do we do? Anyone who comes back, there

:30:37.:30:43.

should be evidence looked into if they committed any crimes. But all

:30:44.:30:49.

those categories should all be be radicalised. You cannot leave them

:30:50.:30:53.

alone. Will we be sure if we know when they come back? That is

:30:54.:30:59.

difficult to say. They could come in and we might not know. There is a

:31:00.:31:06.

watch list so you have got a better chance. And you can identify them?

:31:07.:31:13.

This is where working with other countries is absolutely crucial and

:31:14.:31:16.

our border controls need to be good as well. I am not saying and the

:31:17.:31:21.

government is not saying that anyone would ever slip through, but it is

:31:22.:31:25.

our ability to know when somebody is coming through and to stop them at

:31:26.:31:31.

the border has improved. An important question. Given your

:31:32.:31:35.

experience, how prepared are away for a Paris style attack in a

:31:36.:31:43.

medium-size, provincial city? The government has exercised this one.

:31:44.:31:47.

It started when I was security minister and it has been taken

:31:48.:31:51.

seriously. The single biggest challenge that the police and the

:31:52.:31:55.

Army says will be one of those mobile, roving attacks. You have to

:31:56.:31:58.

take it seriously and the government does. All right, we will leave it

:31:59.:32:03.

Now, Brexit may have swept austerity from the front pages,

:32:04.:32:07.

but the deficit hasn't gone away and the government is still

:32:08.:32:09.

Just this week Whitehall announced that government departments have

:32:10.:32:13.

been told to find another ?3.5bn worth of savings by 2020.

:32:14.:32:17.

Last November the Independent office for Budget Responsibility

:32:18.:32:20.

said the budget deficit would be ?68 billion in the current

:32:21.:32:23.

It would still be ?17 billion by 2021-22.

:32:24.:32:28.

On Wednesday the Chancellor is expected to announce

:32:29.:32:31.

that the 2016-17 deficit has come in much lower than the OBR forecast.

:32:32.:32:36.

Even so, the government is still aiming for the lowest level

:32:37.:32:40.

of public spending as a percentage of national income since 2003-4,

:32:41.:32:45.

coupled with an increase in the tax burden to its highest

:32:46.:32:48.

So spending cuts will continue with reductions in day-to-day

:32:49.:32:54.

government spending accelerating, producing a real terms cut of over

:32:55.:32:57.

But capital spending, investment on infrastructure

:32:58.:33:04.

like roads, hospitals, housing, is projected to grow,

:33:05.:33:08.

producing a 16 billion real terms increase by 2021-22.

:33:09.:33:14.

The Chancellor's task on Wednesday is to keep these fiscal targets

:33:15.:33:18.

while finding some more money for areas under serious

:33:19.:33:21.

pressure such as the NHS, social care and business rates.

:33:22.:33:28.

We're joined now by Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

:33:29.:33:32.

Welcome back to the programme. In last March's budget the OBR

:33:33.:33:39.

predicted just over 2% economic growth for this year. By the Autumn

:33:40.:33:44.

Statement in the wake of the Brexit vote it downgraded back to 1.4%. It

:33:45.:33:49.

is now expected to revise that back around to 2% as the Bank of England

:33:50.:33:55.

has again. It is speculated on the future. It looks like we will get a

:33:56.:34:00.

growth forecast for this year not very different from where it was a

:34:01.:34:05.

year ago. What the bank did was upgrade its forecast for the next

:34:06.:34:08.

year or so, but not change very much. It was thinking about three or

:34:09.:34:13.

four years' time, which is what really matters. It looked like the

:34:14.:34:18.

OBR made a mistake in downgrading the growth in the Autumn Statement

:34:19.:34:22.

three months ago. It was more optimistic than nearly all the other

:34:23.:34:27.

forecasters and the Bank of England. It was wrong, but not as wrong as

:34:28.:34:34.

everybody else. We don't know, but if it significantly upgraded its

:34:35.:34:37.

growth forecast for the next three or four years, I would be surprised.

:34:38.:34:45.

It also added 12 billion to the deficit for the current financial

:34:46.:34:48.

year in the Autumn Statement, compared with March. It looks like

:34:49.:34:54.

that deficit will probably be cut again by about 12 billion compared

:34:55.:34:58.

to the last OBR forecast. It is quite difficult to make economic

:34:59.:35:02.

policy on the basis of changes of that skill every couple of months.

:35:03.:35:08.

That is one of the problems about having these two economic event so

:35:09.:35:13.

close together. My guess is the number will come out somewhere

:35:14.:35:16.

between the budget and the Autumn Statement numbers. There was a nice

:35:17.:35:20.

surprise for the Chancellor last month which looked like tax revenues

:35:21.:35:25.

were coming in a lot more strongly than he expected. But again the real

:35:26.:35:29.

question is how much is this making a difference in the medium run? Is

:35:30.:35:33.

this a one-off thing all good news for the next several years? If

:35:34.:35:39.

growth and revenues are stronger, perhaps not as strong as the good

:35:40.:35:43.

news last month, but if they are stronger than had been forecast in

:35:44.:35:47.

the Autumn Statement, what does that mean for planned spending cuts? It

:35:48.:35:53.

probably does not mean very much. Let's not forget the best possible

:35:54.:35:57.

outcome of this budget will be that for the next couple of years things

:35:58.:36:01.

look no worse than they did a year ago and in four years out they will

:36:02.:36:05.

still look a bit worse, and in addition Philip Hammond did increase

:36:06.:36:09.

his spending plans in November. However good the numbers look in a

:36:10.:36:15.

couple of days' time, we will still be borrowing at least 20 billion

:36:16.:36:20.

more by 2020 than we were forecasting a year ago. Still quite

:36:21.:36:27.

constrained. George Osborne wanted to get us to budget surplus by 2019.

:36:28.:36:33.

That has gone. Philip Hammond is quite happy with a big deficit and

:36:34.:36:38.

is not interested in that. But what he is thinking to a large extent, as

:36:39.:36:43.

you have made clear, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic

:36:44.:36:48.

reaction over the next three or four years. He says he wants some

:36:49.:36:52.

headroom. If things go wrong, I do not want to announce more spending

:36:53.:36:57.

cuts or more tax rises to keep the deficit down. I want to say things

:36:58.:37:00.

have gone wrong for now and we will borrow. And I have got some money in

:37:01.:37:06.

the kitty. He will not spend a lot of it now. I understand the

:37:07.:37:12.

Chancellor is worried about the erosion of the tax base and it is

:37:13.:37:17.

hard to put VAT up by more than 20%, millions have been taken out of

:37:18.:37:23.

income tax, only 46% of people pay income tax, fuel duty is frozen for

:37:24.:37:28.

ever, corporation tax has been cut, the growth in self-employed has

:37:29.:37:31.

reduced revenues, is that a real concern? These are all worries for

:37:32.:37:37.

him. We have as you said in the introduction to this, got a tax

:37:38.:37:42.

burden which is rising very gradually, but it is rising to its

:37:43.:37:47.

highest level since the mid-19 80s, but is not doing it through

:37:48.:37:51.

straightforward increases to income tax. Lots of bits of pieces of

:37:52.:37:55.

insurance premium tax is here and the apprenticeship levied there, and

:37:56.:38:01.

that is higher personal allowance of income tax and a freeze fuel duty,

:38:02.:38:06.

but at some point we will have to look at the tax system as a whole

:38:07.:38:11.

and ask if we can carry on like this. We will have to start increase

:38:12.:38:18.

fuel duties again, or look to those big but unpopular taxes to really

:38:19.:38:25.

keep that money coming in to keep the challenges we will have over the

:38:26.:38:31.

next 30 years. He is going to set up a commission on social care. He has

:38:32.:38:36.

had quite a few commissions on social care. Thank you for being

:38:37.:38:37.

with us. It's just gone 11.35,

:38:38.:38:39.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:38:40.:38:41.

in Scotland who leave us now Hello and welcome to The Sunday

:38:42.:38:44.

Politics in the glorious West. We were promised a big cut in red

:38:45.:38:55.

tape, but will leaving the EU really To debate that and so much

:38:56.:39:03.

more our three guests are Conservative MP James Gray,

:39:04.:39:09.

Labour's Thangam Debbonaire and the Avon and Somerset Police

:39:10.:39:12.

and Crime Commissioner, We'll hear from them in a moment.

:39:13.:39:14.

Good morning to you all. First, police forces have

:39:15.:39:20.

taken their share of cuts over the last seven years and for much

:39:21.:39:23.

of that time crime kept going down. But recently burglary has started

:39:24.:39:27.

rising again in Avon So are police cuts

:39:28.:39:29.

making us less safe? Our Home Affairs

:39:30.:39:39.

correspondent reports. We have been up here doing revisits

:39:40.:39:41.

on burglary victims today. Out on the beat, this is real

:39:42.:39:45.

neighbourhood policing, the kind the public say

:39:46.:39:48.

they want to see more of. PC Kye Hendy and PSCO

:39:49.:39:51.

Charlotte Thompson are responding to another report of

:39:52.:39:54.

a burglary overnight. It started in Horfield

:39:55.:39:59.

from last November. We were seeing an increase in garage

:40:00.:40:02.

and shed breaks for high value bicycles and it spread over

:40:03.:40:05.

to Lockleaze and surrounding They're determined to

:40:06.:40:08.

catch their man or woman All services are having to do more

:40:09.:40:13.

with less, but burglary But it is also about

:40:14.:40:19.

the public helping us. So taking a bit of responsibility

:40:20.:40:24.

for themselves and also to make Even if you try the odd front door

:40:25.:40:28.

they are always open. It is a polite reminder to everyone

:40:29.:40:32.

to review their own security. Avon and Somerset have seen a 36%

:40:33.:40:40.

increase in burglaries since 2014. Wiltshire have seen

:40:41.:40:42.

an increase - up by 23%. But in Gloucestershire,

:40:43.:40:45.

the figures are down by 10%. An increase in crimes puts pressure

:40:46.:40:48.

on local teams like these. All our forces say they are feeling

:40:49.:40:52.

the pressure of years The thin blue line is being

:40:53.:40:55.

stretched ever further. Here in Avon and Somerset

:40:56.:41:02.

20% of their budget has They have fewer frontline officers

:41:03.:41:04.

than other similar forces because of the way funding

:41:05.:41:08.

is shared out. Wiltshire Police also claimed

:41:09.:41:13.

the Government's funding formula is bad for them meaning they can't

:41:14.:41:17.

afford as many police Like in Avon and Somerset,

:41:18.:41:19.

both Wiltshire Police and Gloucestershire Police,

:41:20.:41:23.

have seen real terms In Bristol, Avon and Somerset's most

:41:24.:41:25.

senior detective in charge of burglaries says criminals

:41:26.:41:33.

are resorting to fishing through cat We've seen an increase in car key

:41:34.:41:36.

burglaries where the thieves are targeting the high value cars

:41:37.:41:46.

that on people's driveways. So in the past people would have

:41:47.:41:48.

had their cars stolen Now with the increase

:41:49.:41:50.

in security devices, it's impossible to steal a car

:41:51.:41:55.

unless you've got the keys But what do the cutbacks mean

:41:56.:41:58.

for the victims in these crimes? We have to prioritise

:41:59.:42:06.

that the limited resources that we have got, burglary

:42:07.:42:08.

is a priority, but we have to balance that with other serious

:42:09.:42:11.

crime investigations particularly serious sexual offences,

:42:12.:42:13.

offences against women and children which are also our

:42:14.:42:15.

priorities as well. It has been a long day and whilst

:42:16.:42:18.

many are going home, these two are off to meet another

:42:19.:42:26.

family who have been burgled. I'm the local police officer

:42:27.:42:29.

and this is Charlotte. I understand you've

:42:30.:42:32.

suffered a burglary. Anna stepped out and I was putting

:42:33.:42:34.

Isabel to bed and when I came down, I looked out the back door

:42:35.:42:38.

and my office doors I could see that something

:42:39.:42:40.

had happened outside. I went down and I noticed

:42:41.:42:49.

that my road bike had been stolen. Along with some cash

:42:50.:42:52.

that was on the side It's worrying and it is not very

:42:53.:42:54.

nice knowing that someone has been in your house and stolen things that

:42:55.:43:01.

you've worked hard for to pay for. They're grateful for the police's

:43:02.:43:07.

help and when the public are asked, this kind of policing remains one

:43:08.:43:11.

of their top priorities. Sue, as the commissioner,

:43:12.:43:14.

is burglary one of your priorities? I think looking at all the things,

:43:15.:43:21.

burglary is a priority, but what was said on that piece

:43:22.:43:27.

is local neighbourhood policing So burglary as a crime

:43:28.:43:30.

isn't a priority? The priority is protecting the most

:43:31.:43:33.

vulnerable from harm. Where we've got reduced funding,

:43:34.:43:38.

we have to make sure that we are problem solving

:43:39.:43:41.

and local neighbourhood policing teams is key to that and that's why

:43:42.:43:44.

Andy Marsh the Chief Constable and I are ring-fencing local police

:43:45.:43:48.

teams so that they are. If there was a burglary in a big

:43:49.:43:51.

house with posh people, The police will always go to where

:43:52.:43:54.

the greatest risk of harm is. You haven't got your priorities

:43:55.:44:00.

right because burglary is going up? Burglary had a spike last

:44:01.:44:05.

year and I very publicly was disappointed in how the police

:44:06.:44:10.

were tackling that. But there is a whole range of things

:44:11.:44:16.

about burglary and some of them are really not easy to be able

:44:17.:44:22.

to find solutions to. You have got an overwhelming chance

:44:23.:44:25.

of getting away with it? They are not good enough and I have

:44:26.:44:31.

had that conversation many times with the Chief Constable

:44:32.:44:34.

and there is an added focus But it is not on your website -

:44:35.:44:37.

burglary is one of my priorities. It's protecting the most vulnerable

:44:38.:44:44.

from harm is the priority. James, the so-called party of law

:44:45.:44:48.

and order has seen police funding cut by 22% and thousands of officers

:44:49.:44:52.

taken out of the service. Are you surprised that

:44:53.:44:56.

the police aren't happy? It is not about how much we spend,

:44:57.:45:00.

it is how you spend it and Sue was correct to say

:45:01.:45:03.

it is a question of priorities. In Wiltshire I'm asking a lot

:45:04.:45:06.

of questions about why the police are spending ?1 million occupying 18

:45:07.:45:09.

police officers full-time investigating whether or not

:45:10.:45:11.

Ted Heath was a paedophile. I don't know if he was or not,

:45:12.:45:16.

and if he was that must be exposed, but 18 police officers,

:45:17.:45:20.

?1 million so far on a man that's I'm not certain that's the right

:45:21.:45:23.

priority and it is not only a question about how much money

:45:24.:45:27.

you spend, but where you spend it Would you be surprised if police

:45:28.:45:30.

chiefs told you we are not as good a service as we used to be

:45:31.:45:37.

because they had a 20% budget cut. Can you imagine spending

:45:38.:45:40.

20% less on anything You look at serious sexual assaults,

:45:41.:45:42.

that's gone up - 180% increase How much of that do you put

:45:43.:45:54.

down to lack of funding? It's to do with the fact

:45:55.:46:00.

that we have fewer police officers. We have a really unfair

:46:01.:46:03.

funding formula. Under Labour domestic abuse has been

:46:04.:46:07.

tackled in a really interesting and smart way which actually brought

:46:08.:46:13.

down domestic homicides in certain parts of the country and that's

:46:14.:46:15.

because we were tackling it by funding refuges and funding

:46:16.:46:18.

rape crisis centres What would you do about tackling

:46:19.:46:20.

burglary which is the focus I'm not happy with the Government's

:46:21.:46:24.

cuts to police funding. I don't think it is safe and I don't

:46:25.:46:28.

think it is appropriate and I don't like the idea of putting,

:46:29.:46:33.

not just the most vulnerable, but also in some circumstances our

:46:34.:46:35.

police officers at risk. What is puzzling is this -

:46:36.:46:39.

the police are explaining No money in social care

:46:40.:46:41.

or not enough we're told, NHS, prisons, education,

:46:42.:46:46.

all and our infrastructure seems to be crumbling and yet,

:46:47.:46:48.

the Government, Mrs May is 16 points ahead in the polls, how

:46:49.:46:51.

can you explain that? What I can do is show

:46:52.:46:58.

you what I have been doing and what my colleagues have been

:46:59.:47:01.

doing and Labour MPs An explanation about why when

:47:02.:47:04.

the infrastructure is crumbling. Labour isn't up there

:47:05.:47:07.

and above the Tories? What we've got to do is focus

:47:08.:47:11.

on exposing what the Government is doing and we have been doing that

:47:12.:47:16.

as well as we possibly can. Labour MPs are fighting really hard

:47:17.:47:20.

and are showing up that the social care funding is not enough

:47:21.:47:23.

and that's creating a perfect storm in the Health Service and we had

:47:24.:47:26.

a debate on that earlier But you have got no explanation why

:47:27.:47:29.

you're so unpopular? I don't enter into discussions

:47:30.:47:32.

about opinion polls. A long time ago I decided that

:47:33.:47:34.

I wasn't going to enter into discussion about opinion polls

:47:35.:47:37.

because I'm not really sure how I'm really unhappy about

:47:38.:47:40.

the result in Copeland. So where is the protection

:47:41.:47:50.

from the public? If the Conservatives are making cuts

:47:51.:47:52.

with impunity, where is your Just this week there

:47:53.:47:55.

was a committee that I was sitting on and James was chairing

:47:56.:48:00.

on which James can't comment. But we tackled the Government on how

:48:01.:48:04.

they were undermining the ban This was being snuck

:48:05.:48:07.

through as a regulatory change quietly, but we attacked them

:48:08.:48:11.

and got some of their MPs Sue, how much more money

:48:12.:48:14.

would you need to make Avon and Somerset the force

:48:15.:48:18.

you would wish it to be? If you look at what happened over

:48:19.:48:21.

the last seven or eight years we've lost over ?110 million

:48:22.:48:28.

because of an unfair So I want the Government to look

:48:29.:48:30.

at a fair and transparent formula which looks at the number of people

:48:31.:48:35.

that are in Avon and Somerset. No, one cake and if you have a fair

:48:36.:48:41.

funding formula which means more money for Bristol,

:48:42.:48:51.

and the west, it means less If that's not more money,

:48:52.:48:53.

what does fair mean? Let's have the money that

:48:54.:49:00.

we've had taken off us so money has been taken to -

:49:01.:49:11.

this is the transition phase. Our money has gone to other forces

:49:12.:49:13.

such as with Cumbria. We need to have the fairer

:49:14.:49:16.

funding formula. We would have another 350 police

:49:17.:49:19.

officers in Avon and Somerset We will have to leave it

:49:20.:49:21.

because we've got other Now headline writers

:49:22.:49:29.

love to describe Brexit as a political earthquake

:49:30.:49:34.

that will shake this country But might it all prove to be

:49:35.:49:36.

more of a tiny tremor? Local billionaire Sir

:49:37.:49:40.

James Dyson thinks so. He brushed off leaving the EU

:49:41.:49:42.

as a minor event before announcing a huge investment

:49:43.:49:45.

into the West's economy. We bought Hullavington Airport which

:49:46.:49:47.

is only a short way down the road. As votes of confidence

:49:48.:49:58.

in Brexit Britain go, On Tuesday, billionaire inventor

:49:59.:50:00.

Sir James Dyson gathered staff in Wiltshire to reveal he would be

:50:01.:50:04.

doubling their numbers He bought the old RAF airfield

:50:05.:50:07.

at Hullavington to work on the technologies of tomorrow,

:50:08.:50:14.

whether it is for electric cars or robots, he wouldn't say,

:50:15.:50:16.

but he was keen to stress leaving It's a comparatively small event

:50:17.:50:19.

in a company's life. There are lots of things like

:50:20.:50:35.

European restrictive trade practises so we have to do for example

:50:36.:50:37.

a special vacuum cleaner for Europe, We do that and we trade

:50:38.:50:41.

and expand our trade with the rest of the world and it would be nice

:50:42.:50:45.

if they could reduce His frustration with red tape

:50:46.:50:48.

follows a legal battle with Europe over labelling laws

:50:49.:50:51.

for vacuum cleaners. It's an issue that causes sparks

:50:52.:50:54.

to fly at the other end Nick Lockstone makes

:50:55.:50:57.

bespoke trailers out He had his own run-in

:50:58.:51:01.

with the EU over the size This name plate was designed

:51:02.:51:08.

to take a three mil stamps. However EU law dictates

:51:09.:51:15.

the minimum size is four mil. So just because the writing

:51:16.:51:17.

was one millimetre... He's also concerned about new safety

:51:18.:51:21.

tests, the individual vehicle assessment comes from

:51:22.:51:33.

a European directive. For him it means taking

:51:34.:51:35.

each new trailer for a safety That's a three hour

:51:36.:51:37.

round trip and a ?75 fee. It's just extra regulations

:51:38.:51:42.

that have to be met. The trailers, all the components

:51:43.:51:44.

we use on the trailers are exactly the same, the brakes,

:51:45.:51:48.

the wheels, the tyres, lightening, couplings,

:51:49.:51:50.

they are all the same except now we have to jump through these extra

:51:51.:51:52.

hurdles to get a little bit of paper He says there are already enough

:51:53.:51:56.

checks to ensure his trailers are road worthy and the extra tests

:51:57.:52:00.

put him off from doing Some hope for a bonfire

:52:01.:52:03.

of red tape after Brexit. The independent think-tank Open

:52:04.:52:11.

Europe put the cost of the 100 most burdensome rules on British business

:52:12.:52:16.

as over ?30 billion a year. The most expensive include the UK

:52:17.:52:19.

renewable energy strategy, the Working Time Directive,

:52:20.:52:21.

and the temporary agency But will leaving the EU lead

:52:22.:52:23.

to less red tape or more? This is a Valentino

:52:24.:52:39.

Rossi balance bike. They make balance bikes for children

:52:40.:52:42.

at this Somerset firm. Much of their business is done

:52:43.:52:46.

on the Continent and they worry that exporting abroad could lead to two

:52:47.:52:49.

sets of rules. One for trade in Britain

:52:50.:52:54.

and another for Europe. If there is going to be UK standards

:52:55.:52:56.

that are different and require additional safety testing then yes,

:52:57.:53:00.

it's going to affect us because we're going to have to go

:53:01.:53:02.

through all the extra cost of testing, all the extra time

:53:03.:53:05.

and bureaucracy that's going to be involved or the certification it's

:53:06.:53:08.

going to have, I would say, His soaring confidence is not

:53:09.:53:10.

shared by everyone then. With just days to go

:53:11.:53:18.

until Brexit negotiations start, and a new future is drawn up

:53:19.:53:20.

for our country. I don't know what he's

:53:21.:53:27.

drawing there, but I'm sure James, we were told that immigration

:53:28.:53:29.

would come down or migration All these things are

:53:30.:53:37.

vanishing, aren't they? We are still in the European Union

:53:38.:53:47.

and we will be for another two years After that time, we in Westminster

:53:48.:53:53.

will decide about red tape and will decide about migration

:53:54.:53:57.

and decide about trade and all these things,

:53:58.:53:59.

we will be the ones that decide and we will be listening

:54:00.:54:02.

to Sir James Dyson and to the others Right now, Europe doesn't

:54:03.:54:07.

listen to them at all. You can decide until you're red

:54:08.:54:10.

in the face, but if you want to sell something to the EU,

:54:11.:54:14.

you will have to abide So it could mean companies will have

:54:15.:54:16.

to abide by the regulations that you've decided in the UK

:54:17.:54:22.

and the regulations they have If you sell something to America,

:54:23.:54:24.

you have American regulations or to Japan or to Australia

:54:25.:54:31.

or India, or anywhere else in the world,

:54:32.:54:33.

of course, you have to sell things in those countries in the way

:54:34.:54:36.

they want to buy it. We will do our best to make

:54:37.:54:38.

sure our regulations But European regulations aren't

:54:39.:54:42.

the same as American Now you're bringing in another one

:54:43.:54:45.

which will be UK regulations? It may or may not be depending

:54:46.:54:49.

on what we in Westminster decide. Well, I mean James

:54:50.:55:00.

has already said it. We're going to have to abide by many

:55:01.:55:03.

different sets of regulations and we do now and that's

:55:04.:55:06.

going to carry on so that's something which actually hasn't

:55:07.:55:09.

changed and it's not changing now as you say and it's not

:55:10.:55:11.

going to change after we leave What's important is Robin mentioned

:55:12.:55:14.

about Working Time Directives, about the renewable energy

:55:15.:55:17.

directive, about the temporary agencies directives, I want to carry

:55:18.:55:19.

on protecting workers. You want workers to carry on having

:55:20.:55:21.

rights if they're temporary workers. I'd alike us to carry on having

:55:22.:55:24.

a renewable energy strategy. I hope that those aren't so-called

:55:25.:55:27.

red tapes that we're chucking away. One person's red tapes is another

:55:28.:55:30.

person's rights and I want Do you accept the fears that

:55:31.:55:32.

were expressed during the campaign Well, as James said,

:55:33.:55:39.

I'm going to agree with James. We haven't actually left

:55:40.:55:43.

the European Union yet. So some of the things that some

:55:44.:55:48.

of us warned may go wrong, they haven't happened

:55:49.:55:51.

because we haven't left. Sir James Dyson says

:55:52.:55:55.

it is a minor event. A lot of his exports don't go

:55:56.:55:58.

to the European Union anyway. He's going to have to carry

:55:59.:56:01.

on meeting different standards. He's going to have to carry

:56:02.:56:03.

on meeting EU standards He says that but there

:56:04.:56:06.

are other exporters In my constituency I have

:56:07.:56:11.

the financial services sector and the creative and the tech sector

:56:12.:56:15.

and the university, all have said they have warned me of terrible

:56:16.:56:18.

problems ahead when we leave From the police point of view,

:56:19.:56:20.

do you have a Brexit opinion, There are two things

:56:21.:56:24.

that concern me. One, that we need the

:56:25.:56:28.

European Arrest Warrant. Really important and that will be

:56:29.:56:32.

part of the negotiations, but criminals don't recognise

:56:33.:56:35.

borders and nor should the police, but the second thing that we have

:56:36.:56:38.

noticed particularly within Avon and Somerset and in Bristol,

:56:39.:56:42.

is the increase in hate crime and that has and we will

:56:43.:56:45.

expect to see... Have you seen concrete evidence

:56:46.:56:47.

of that happening and you can There has been an increase

:56:48.:56:55.

and after the Brexit vote, there was a really big spike

:56:56.:56:59.

and now that has come down, but it hasn't come down

:57:00.:57:02.

to the level that it was before. Parts of the West, 60% for example

:57:03.:57:06.

in Bristol voted for Brexit. And yet this was the city that

:57:07.:57:09.

voted against Brexit? But I think the politicians

:57:10.:57:20.

let the genie out of bottle by making racist

:57:21.:57:23.

comments and I think that has almost given permission for other people

:57:24.:57:25.

to show that against other people. Some did, Sue.

:57:26.:57:28.

Most of us, didn't. Let me just move on to

:57:29.:57:30.

another Brexit point That's the rights of people to live

:57:31.:57:32.

in this country, EU citizens. James, should they be given that

:57:33.:57:41.

assurance straightaway? The thing about the

:57:42.:57:43.

debate in the lords, has been about the Europeans living

:57:44.:57:45.

here. They haven't mentioned

:57:46.:57:47.

the 3.8 million British people What we're saying is let's make this

:57:48.:57:49.

the first thing that we negotiate and we'll find equal rights

:57:50.:57:53.

for the Brits living overseas and the EU and EU

:57:54.:57:55.

citizens living here. Let's not just make it

:57:56.:57:59.

a one-sided deal and give Why don't we get ahead and raise

:58:00.:58:01.

the bar straightaway by saying we are going to guarantee the rights

:58:02.:58:05.

of EU citizens... You're giving away a good

:58:06.:58:09.

negotiating tactic by doing that. Because you're handing away one

:58:10.:58:11.

important negotiating at that There are people in my constituency

:58:12.:58:22.

who come from the European Union you have been here 20 years

:58:23.:58:26.

and who are married, who have got children and got jobs

:58:27.:58:29.

and contribute to Bristol. At the moment they are in

:58:30.:58:31.

terrible uncertainty. There are people from your

:58:32.:58:33.

constituency who are living in Paris We can at least set an example

:58:34.:58:36.

and say to those European citizens who I welcome,

:58:37.:58:44.

who I value, come to see me in tears, I want them

:58:45.:58:47.

to have some certainty. When they came to you in tears,

:58:48.:58:49.

I hope you reassured. That the Labour peers have been

:58:50.:58:53.

standing up for them The first day I held a surgery,

:58:54.:58:56.

I had a considerable number of Europeans who came to see me

:58:57.:59:01.

in the middle of Broadmead who were really scared and they have

:59:02.:59:04.

put their families It's the French and Germans

:59:05.:59:07.

who are holding out They're obviously playing hard ball

:59:08.:59:11.

which may indicate how they're going to play the game later

:59:12.:59:15.

on about Brexit. Why would you accept

:59:16.:59:17.

something if they are not It's called negotiation for a reason

:59:18.:59:19.

and we need to negotiate. That's not negotiating,

:59:20.:59:23.

that's giving? We can't put into our legislation

:59:24.:59:25.

something requiring the French It's about principles

:59:26.:59:27.

and it's about fairness. Well, let's take a look

:59:28.:59:36.

at the political week A millionaire Ukip donor,

:59:37.:59:39.

Aaron Banks, may try to unseat The Bristol businessman

:59:40.:59:49.

has been feuding with He says he will stand against him

:59:50.:59:51.

at the next election. Plans to expand Cribbs Causeway have

:59:52.:59:58.

been called in by the Government. The site has planning permission,

:59:59.:00:01.

but has been criticised by local The Secretary of State

:00:02.:00:03.

will now decide. There has been further pressure

:00:04.:00:10.

to rename Bristol's Colston Hall, more than 1,500 people have signed

:00:11.:00:15.

a petition because Edward Colston The name could change as part

:00:16.:00:17.

of a multi-million pound revamp. And political history

:00:18.:00:22.

was made this week. The first meeting of the body

:00:23.:00:25.

which will eventually be Just make sure you

:00:26.:00:27.

use its full name! It's the West of England

:00:28.:00:34.

Combined Authority. Very catchy, one word answers

:00:35.:00:49.

because we're short of time. The Colston Hall, should

:00:50.:00:52.

it change its name, it The Wills building was tobacco,

:00:53.:00:54.

they changed the name. But Whiteladies Road we're

:00:55.:00:59.

sitting in right now, We need to involve the city in this

:01:00.:01:01.

discussion because the city's memorial and it is the city's

:01:02.:01:07.

decision. You're a whip and

:01:08.:01:09.

there is speculation about whether you're

:01:10.:01:13.

going to keep your job because Are you still going to be in work

:01:14.:01:15.

this time next week? I'm still a whip.

:01:16.:01:19.

Who can predict the future, not me? My thanks to my guests,

:01:20.:01:28.

James Gray, Thangam Debbonaire Please follow us on Twitter

:01:29.:01:32.

for latest political news You can watch the programme

:01:33.:01:36.

again on the iplayer But for now, let's go back

:01:37.:01:41.

to London and Andrew. need Crossrail as well. We will be

:01:42.:01:50.

poring over the entrails of the budget next week. Thank you very

:01:51.:01:52.

much indeed. So the Brexit Bill is back in

:01:53.:01:58.

the Lords next week and the Lib Dems They've ordered pizza and camp beds

:01:59.:02:03.

to encourage their peers to keep talking all night,

:02:04.:02:07.

only to be told by the Lord's authorities that their plans fall

:02:08.:02:10.

foul of health and safety laws. Laws that they probably voted for.

:02:11.:02:22.

What did you make of David Liddington's remarks on the Lords

:02:23.:02:25.

amendments, particularly not just the one on EU nationals, but on what

:02:26.:02:30.

is regarded as a meaningful vote at the end of the process? Let's be

:02:31.:02:37.

clear, as ministers like to say, the meaningful vote vote is by far the

:02:38.:02:40.

biggest thing that will happen in Parliament. It puts EU citizens into

:02:41.:02:47.

a tiny corner. It will decide not just who is going to have the final

:02:48.:02:53.

say on this, but who the EU is negotiating with. Is it directly

:02:54.:02:58.

with Theresa May or is it with Parliament? Who will decide the

:02:59.:03:01.

shape of Brexit, Parliament or Theresa May? The Lords amendment is

:03:02.:03:09.

just the first chapter. They have voiced Theresa May to give them a

:03:10.:03:13.

veto on everything she does, and there is a possible chance in the

:03:14.:03:18.

Commons could uphold this amendment. The meaningful vote amendment? The

:03:19.:03:25.

meaningful vote amendment. But is it a meaningful vote if the choice is

:03:26.:03:29.

to either back the deal or crash out of the deal? That is what the remain

:03:30.:03:36.

supporting MPs or hardline people who want to remain fear. What they

:03:37.:03:41.

want is the power to be able to send Theresa May back to the negotiating

:03:42.:03:47.

table. Why is that anathema to many Brexit supporters? They believed it

:03:48.:03:51.

would crucially and critically undermine Theresa May's negotiating

:03:52.:03:56.

hand and also create a long period of uncertainty for business. There

:03:57.:04:00.

is already great uncertainty and this could extend it. The

:04:01.:04:05.

government's position is in there was a proper, meaningful vote which

:04:06.:04:11.

Parliament could reject what was on offer, that would be an incentive to

:04:12.:04:16.

the EU to give us a bad deal? I think that is the fear. If you are

:04:17.:04:21.

saying to the people you are negotiating with that that is

:04:22.:04:24.

another authority and Theresa May will have to go back and have all of

:04:25.:04:29.

this approved, I think it would have a very significant undermining

:04:30.:04:33.

effect on her negotiating hand. Things change from day to day. We

:04:34.:04:39.

are talking about 2019 and 2018 at the earliest, but if the government

:04:40.:04:45.

lost a vote on the Brexit deal, would he not have to call in someone

:04:46.:04:53.

else? That is why the vote will be meaningful even if the amendment on

:04:54.:04:59.

this meaningful vote will be lost. You cannot do a deal on something as

:05:00.:05:04.

historic as Brexit and have Parliament against you. So, whatever

:05:05.:05:10.

form this vote takes, whenever it happens, it will be hugely

:05:11.:05:17.

meaningful. Whatever label that is given and if she lost it she would

:05:18.:05:22.

call a general election. She could not impose it. To call a general

:05:23.:05:29.

election now you need a majority of MPs which she will not have, so

:05:30.:05:32.

maybe she will not get her election after all. It would be very unlike

:05:33.:05:36.

Labour not to vote for an election. It would be very unlike Labour not

:05:37.:05:40.

to vote for an election. The elections to Stormont have given

:05:41.:05:43.

a boost to the republicans and put the long term status

:05:44.:05:46.

of Northern Ireland in some doubt. Sinn Fein's leader Gerry Adams

:05:47.:05:48.

spoke to reporters Yesterday was in many,

:05:49.:05:50.

many ways a watershed election, and we have just started a process

:05:51.:05:56.

of reflecting what it all means, but clearly the union's majority

:05:57.:06:00.

in the Assembly has been ended, and the notion of a permanent

:06:01.:06:15.

or a perpetual unionist majority Is he right? Is this a watershed?

:06:16.:06:28.

The nationalist vote in the assembly will now come to 39 and the

:06:29.:06:33.

Unionists 38. It is only one member, but it is significant. This is a

:06:34.:06:38.

very serious moment and because of everything else going on with Donald

:06:39.:06:42.

Trump and Brexit it is taking a while for people here to realise

:06:43.:06:46.

just how significant this is. Talking to someone who only recently

:06:47.:06:52.

left a significant role in Northern Ireland politics last night, they

:06:53.:06:55.

said they were very worried about what this means. It is likely there

:06:56.:07:00.

will be a call for some kind of international figure to chair the

:07:01.:07:04.

talks to try and see if there is a way of everybody working together.

:07:05.:07:09.

All sides will probably try to extract more money from the

:07:10.:07:13.

Treasury, but it is a very dangerous moment. Should we regard Michelle

:07:14.:07:18.

O'Neill, who has replaced Mr McGuinness as the leader, it is she

:07:19.:07:22.

the First Minister death probably not quite. An interesting thought.

:07:23.:07:31.

Indeed, the daughter of an IRA man, a fascinating concept in itself. But

:07:32.:07:36.

there are are still a large amount of MLAs who will not give Sinn Fein

:07:37.:07:42.

what they need. But what effect does this have on the legacy of the

:07:43.:07:46.

prosecutions and the great witchhunts which the British

:07:47.:07:50.

Government has vowed to end. There is a majority left on the Stormont

:07:51.:07:57.

assembly to end those. But some would keep them going for time

:07:58.:08:00.

continuing, which is a headache for Theresa May. You have now got 27

:08:01.:08:09.

Sinn Fein members, 28 DUP, then the SDLP bumps up the numbers a little

:08:10.:08:13.

bit. You have got the British Government transfixed with Brexit

:08:14.:08:18.

which has huge implications for the border between North and South in

:08:19.:08:23.

Ireland, and the Irish government is pretty wavering as well and if there

:08:24.:08:29.

is an election there, Sinn Fein could do well in the Dublin

:08:30.:08:32.

parliament as well. There are a lot of moving pieces. There are and

:08:33.:08:37.

there is a danger that we look at everything through the prism of

:08:38.:08:41.

Brexit, but I found Friday and this weekend fascinating. Theresa May and

:08:42.:08:47.

Scotland were Nicola Sturgeon is framing Brexit entirely through an

:08:48.:08:51.

argument to have a second referendum on independence which she wants to

:08:52.:08:56.

hold it she possibly can. And the Irish situation with the prospect of

:08:57.:09:03.

a hard border with Northern Ireland voting majority to remain, quite a

:09:04.:09:10.

substantial majority, again a few of the instability at the moment. That

:09:11.:09:17.

We will be keeping an eye on it for sure.

:09:18.:09:21.

Yesterday, US President Donald Trump tweeted allegations

:09:22.:09:23.

that his predecessor, Barack Obama, had ordered

:09:24.:09:25.

his phones to be tapped during the election campaign.

:09:26.:09:28.

"Terrible!", Trump wrote, "Just found out that Obama

:09:29.:09:31.

had my "wires tapped" in Trump Tower just before the victory.

:09:32.:09:35.

I'm not quite sure what McCarthyism that is.

:09:36.:09:48.

He followed up with a series of tweets comparing it to Watergate.

:09:49.:09:51.

"How low has President Obama gone to tap my phones during the very

:09:52.:09:57.

The sacred election process, I think at one stage he said it was a dodgy

:09:58.:10:10.

election process, but now it is sacred.

:10:11.:10:11.

You are frightened to go to bed at night, you do not know what you are

:10:12.:10:24.

going to wake up to. Completely uncharted territory here. Little

:10:25.:10:29.

more than a month ago at the inauguration they were making the

:10:30.:10:32.

veneer of small talk and politely shaking hands. He saw Barack Obama

:10:33.:10:40.

and Michelle off on the helicopter. You do not know what is coming next.

:10:41.:10:46.

Is there a scintilla of evidence to back up Donald Trump's claims? Yes,

:10:47.:10:51.

there is, although he is very muddled about it all. I will

:10:52.:10:55.

explain. Remember what happened to Mike Flynn, talking to the Russian

:10:56.:11:08.

and Ambassador will stop they were listening. Barack Obama does not

:11:09.:11:13.

sign of warrants, but somebody else did. So why on earth would you not

:11:14.:11:17.

want to listen to the president elect himself in case he might also

:11:18.:11:25.

be breaking the law. Does that sound to you like convincing evidence or

:11:26.:11:29.

just a supposition? I think Tom should go and work for him, that is

:11:30.:11:34.

the most credible interpretation I have heard for a long time. Start

:11:35.:11:39.

tweeting the case for the tweet. What is interesting about this is my

:11:40.:11:44.

theory is he does not really like the idea of being a president. That

:11:45.:11:49.

wild press conference he gave a couple of weeks ago there was one ad

:11:50.:11:55.

lib that did not get repeated which was, I suppose I am a politician

:11:56.:12:00.

now, as if he was humiliated at the idea of being a president. He likes

:12:01.:12:04.

being the businessman with a swagger tweeting around the clock. And

:12:05.:12:09.

campaigning again. He keeps going to what looked like campaign rallies. I

:12:10.:12:15.

disagree with you about him not liking being president. I think he

:12:16.:12:19.

loves the idea of being the president, but the reality is so

:12:20.:12:23.

frustrating on every level, finding he does not have unlimited room for

:12:24.:12:26.

manoeuvre and so many things have been put in place to stop them doing

:12:27.:12:31.

things he would do in the business environment. We have had two more

:12:32.:12:34.

tweets from him this morning, I guess when he woke up. Who was it

:12:35.:12:40.

who secretly said to the Russian president, tell Vladimir that after

:12:41.:12:42.

the election I will have more flexibility? Who was that? Possibly

:12:43.:12:51.

Hillary Clinton. Is it true the Democratic National committee would

:12:52.:12:55.

not allow the FBI access to check server or other equipment after

:12:56.:12:59.

learning it was hacked? Can that be possible? This was all an issue in

:13:00.:13:04.

the campaign. He is now a president. Shall I point out the flaw in Tom's

:13:05.:13:09.

theory. They were not bugging Michael Flynn's phone, it was the

:13:10.:13:13.

Russian Ambassador's telephone they were barking. Mr Neil, I would never

:13:14.:13:22.

contradict you on this programme. But if you suspect there was

:13:23.:13:26.

criminal activity going on, as there was by Michael Flynn, why would you

:13:27.:13:33.

not want to put on a tap? I don't know. That is it for today.

:13:34.:13:38.

I'll be back next week here on BBC One at 11am as usual.

:13:39.:13:41.

The Daily Politics is back tomorrow at midday on BBC Two.

:13:42.:13:44.

But remember - if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:45.:14:34.

The thing that's so clear is that it's 100% honest.

:14:35.:14:36.

We're right in the middle of the action.

:14:37.:14:41.

The remarkable story of British photography.

:14:42.:14:44.

The only cameras that were there that day

:14:45.:14:49.

How pioneering artists and technology

:14:50.:14:52.

Andrew Neil speaks to leader of the House of Commons David Lidington about Brexit, and talks about the upcoming Budget with Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Andrew also discusses Islamist terrorism in the UK with former security minister Baroness Neville-Jones, Adam Deen of the Quilliam Foundation and Tahla Ahmad of the Muslim Council of Britain.

David Garmston is joined by Thangam Debbonaire.

On the political panel are the Sun's political editor Tom Newton Dunn and journalists Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.


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