12/03/2017 Sunday Politics West


12/03/2017

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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

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David Davis tells MPs to leave the Brexit bill untouched,

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ahead of a week which could see Britain begin the process

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We'll talk to a Tory rebel and Ukip's Nigel Farage.

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Phillip Hammond's first budget hit the rocks thanks to a tax rise

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But how should we tax those who work for themselves?

:00:53.:01:00.

And remember Donald Trump's claim that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:01.:01:02.

We'll talk to the former Tory MP who set the whole story rolling.

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As a home care agency in Gloucestershire goes bust, will the

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And joining me for all of that, three self-employed journalists

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who definitely don't deserve a tax break.

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It's Steve Richards, Julia Hartley-Brewer

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They'll be tweeting throughout the programme with all the carefree

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abandon of Katie Hopkins before a libel trial.

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BBC lawyers have suddenly got nervous!

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So first today, the government is gearing up to trigger Article 50,

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perhaps in the next 48 hours, and start negotiating Britain's

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Much has been written about the prospect of the Commons

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getting a "meaningful vote" on the deal Britain negotiates.

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Brexit Secretary David Davis was on the Andrew Marr programme

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earlier this morning and he was asked what happens

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Well, that is what is called the most favoured nation status deal

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There we go out, as it were, on WTO rules.

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That is why of course we do the contingency planning, to make

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The British people decided on June the 23rd last year

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My job, and the job of the government, is to make

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the terms on which that happens as beneficial as possible.

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There we have it, clearly, either Parliament votes for the deal when

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it is done or it out on World Trade Organisation rules. That's what the

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government means by a meaningful vote.

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I think we get over obsessed about whether there will be a legal right

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for Parliament to have a vote. If there is no deal or a bad deal, I

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think it would be politically impossible for the government to

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reject Parliament's desire for a vote because the atmosphere of

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politics will be completely different by then. I take David

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Davies seriously. Within Whitehall he has acquired a reputation as

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being the most conscientious and details sadly... And well briefed.

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Absolutely and well travelled in terms of European capitals of the

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three Brexit ministers. It is quite telling he said what he did and it

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is quite telling that within cabinet, two weeks ago he was

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floating the idea of no deal at all. Being if not the central estimate

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than a completely plausible eventuality. It is interesting. I

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would suggest the prospect of no deal is moving up the agenda. It is

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still less likely than more likely to happen. But it's no longer a kind

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of long tail way out there in the distance. Planning for no deal is

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the same as having contents insurance or travel insurance, plan

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for the worse case scenarios are prepared it happens. Even the worst

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case scenario, it's not that bad. Think of the Jeep 20, apart from the

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EU, four members of the G20 economies are successful members of

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the EU. The rest aren't and don't have trade deals but somehow these

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countries are prospering. They are growing at a higher rate. You are

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not frightened? Not remotely. We are obsessed with what we get from the

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EU and the key thing we get from leaving the EU is not the deal but

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the other deals we can finally make with other trading partners. They

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have higher growth than virtually every other EU country apart from

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Germany. It is sensible as a negotiating position for the

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government to say if there is no deal, we will accept there is no

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deal. We're not frightened of no deal. It was clear from what David

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Davies was saying that there will be a vote in parliament at the end of

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the process but there won't be a third option to send the government

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back to try to get a better deal. It is either the deal or we leave

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without a deal. In reality, that third option will be there. We don't

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know yet whether there will be a majority for the deal if they get

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one. What we do know now is that there isn't a majority in the

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Commons for no deal. Labour MPs are absolutely clear that no deal is

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worth then a bad deal. I've heard enough Tory MPs say the same thing.

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But they wouldn't get no deal through. When it comes to this vote,

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if whatever deal is rejected, there will then be, one way or another,

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the third option raised of go back again. But who gets to decide what

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is a bad deal? The British people will have a different idea than the

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two thirds of the Remain supporting MPs in the Commons. In terms of the

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vote, the Commons. Surely, if the Commons, which is what matters here,

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if the Commons were to vote against the deal as negotiated by the

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government, surely that would trigger a general election? If the

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government had recommended the deal, surely the government would then, if

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it still felt strongly about the deal, if the other 27 had said,

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we're not negotiating, extending it, it would in effect become a second

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referendum on the deal. In effect it would be a no-confidence vote in the

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government. You've got to assume that unless something massively

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changes in the opposition before then, the government would feel

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fairly confident about a general election on those terms. Unless the

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deal is hideously bad and obviously basso every vote in the country...

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The prior minister said if it is that bad she would have rather no

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deal. So that eventuality arrives. -- the Prime Minister has said. Not

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a second referendum general election in two years' time. Don't put any

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holidays for! LAUGHTER -- don't look any.

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So the Brexit bill looks likely to clear Parliament this week.

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That depends on the number of Conservative MPs who are prepared

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to vote against their government on two key issues.

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Theresa May could be in negotiations with our European

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partners within days, but there may be some

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wheeler-dealings she has to do with her own MPs, too.

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Cast your mind back to the beginning of month.

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The bill to trigger Article 50 passed comfortably

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But three Conservatives voted for Labour's amendments to ensure

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the rights of EU citizens already in the UK.

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Seven Tory MPs voted to force the government to give Parliament

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a say on the deal struck with the EU before it's finalised.

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But remember those numbers, they're important.

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On the issue of a meaningful vote on a deal, I'm told there might have

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been more rebels had it not been for this assurance from

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I can confirm that the government will bring forward a motion

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on the final agreement to be approved by both Houses

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And we expect, and intend, that this will happen before

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the European Parliament debates and votes on the final agreement.

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When the government was criticised for reeling back

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from when and what it would offer a vote on.

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The bill then moved into the Lords, where peers passed it

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And the second, that Parliament be given a meaningful vote on the terms

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of the deal or indeed a vote in the event of there

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The so-called Brexit bill will return to Commons

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Ministers insist that both amendments would weaken

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the government's negotiating hand and are seeking to overturn them.

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But, as ever, politics is a numbers game.

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Theresa May has a working majority of 17.

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On Brexit, though, it's probably higher.

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At least six Labour MPs generally vote with

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Plus, eight DUP MPs, two from the Ulster Unionist party

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If all Conservatives vote with the government as well,

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Therefore, 26 Conservative rebels are needed for the government to be

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So, are there rough waters ahead for Theresa May?

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What numbers are we looking at, in terms of a potential rebellion?

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I think we're looking at a large number of people who are interested

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This building is a really important building.

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It's symbolic of a huge amount of history.

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And for it not to be involved in this momentous time would,

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But he says a clear verbal statement from the government on a meaningful

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vote on any deal would be enough to get most Tory MPs onside.

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It was already said about David Jones.

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It's slightly unravelled a little bit during

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I think this is an opportunity to really get that clarity

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through so that we can all vote for Article 50 and get

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We've have spoken to several Tory MPs who say they are minded to vote

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One said the situation was sad and depressing.

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The other said that the whips must be worried because they don't

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A minister told me Downing Street was looking again at the possibility

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of offering a vote in the event of no deal being reached.

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But that its position was unlikely to change.

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And, anyway, government sources have told the Sunday Politics they're not

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That those Tory MPs who didn't back either amendment the first time

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round would look silly if they did, this time.

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It would have to be a pretty hefty lot of people changing their minds

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about things that have already been discussed in quite a lot of detail,

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last time it was in the Commons, for things to be reversed this time.

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There's no doubt that a number of Tory MPs are very concerned.

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Labour are pessimistic about the chances of enough Tory

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rebels backing either of the amendments in the Commons.

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The important thing, I think, is to focus on the fact

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that this is the last chance to have a say on this.

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If they're going to vote with us, Monday is the time to do it.

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Assuming the bill does pass the Commons unamended,

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it will go back to the Lord's on Monday night where Labour peers

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have already indicated they won't block it again.

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It means that the Brexit bill would become law and Theresa May

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would be free to trigger Article 50 within days.

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Her own deadline was the end of this month.

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But one minister told me there were advantages to doing it early.

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We're joined now from Nottingham by the Conservative MP Anna Soubry.

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She's previously voted against the government on the question

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of whether Parliament should have a final say over the EU deal.

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Anna Soubry, I think it was clear this morning from David Davies that

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what he means by meaningful vote is not what you mean by a meaningful

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vote. He thinks the choice for Parliament would be to either vote

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for the deal and if Parliament doesn't, we leave on World Trade

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Organisation rules, on a bare-bones structure. In the end, will he

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accept that in the Commons tomorrow? No, because my problem and I don't

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think it is a problem, but my problem, the government's problem is

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that what I want is then to answer this question. What happens in the

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event of their not being any deal? David Davies made it very clear that

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in the event of there being no deal, Parliament would have no say. It

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means through your elected representatives, the people of this

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country would have no say on what happens if the government doesn't

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get a deal. I think the request that Parliament should have a say on

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Parliamentary sovereignty, is perfectly reasonable. That is what I

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want David to say. If he says that, I won't be rebelling. If he does...

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They have refused to say that. Sorry. If he continues to say what

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he said the BBC this morning, which means that the vote will be either

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to accept the as negotiated or to leave on WTO rules, will you rebel

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on that question but no, no, sorry, if there's a deal, Parliament will

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have a say. So that's fine. And we will see what the deal is and we

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will look at the options two years down the road. When who knows

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what'll happen in our economy and world economy. That is one matter

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which I am content on. The Prime Minister, a woman of her word has

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said that in the event of a deal, Parliament will vote on any deal. I

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don't difficulty. To clarify, I will come onto that. These are important

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matters. I want to clarify, not argue with you. You are content that

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if there is a deal, we will come under no deal in a second, but if

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there is a deal, you are content with the choice of being able to

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vote for that deal or leaving on WTO terms? No, you're speculating as to

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what might happen in two years' time. What the options might be.

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Personally I find it inconceivable that the government will come back

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with a rubbish deal. They will either come back with a good deal,

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which I won't have a problem with or they will come back with no deal. To

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speculate about coming back with a deal, there is a variety of options.

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I understand that that is what the Lord amendments are about. They are

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about a vote at the end of the process. Do forgive me, the Lords

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amendment is not the same that I've voted for in Parliament. What we

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call the Chris Leslie amendment, which was talking about whatever the

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agreement is, whatever happens at the end of the negotiations,

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Parliament will have a vote. Parliament will have a say. The

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Lords amendment is a bit more technical. It is the principle of no

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deal that is agitating us. Let's clarify on this. They are

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complicated matters. What do you want the government to say? What do

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you want David Davis to say tomorrow on what should the Parliamentary

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process should be if there is no deal? Quite. I want a commitment

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from him that in the event of no deal, it will come into Parliament

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and Parliament will determine what happens next. It could be that in

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the event of no deal, the best thing is for us to jump off the cliff into

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WTO tariff is. I find it unlikely but that might be the reality. There

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might be other alternatives. Most importantly, including saying to the

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government, go back, carry on. The question that everybody has to ask

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is, why won't the government give My fear is what this is about is

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asked deliberately, not the Prime Minister, but others deliberately

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ensuring we have no deal and no deal pretty soon and in that event, we

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jumped off the cliff onto WTO tariffs and nobody in this country

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and the people of this country do not have a say. My constituents did

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not vote for hard Brexit. You do not want the government to

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have the ability if there is no deal to automatically fall back on the

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WTO rules? Quite. It is as simple as that. We are now speculating about

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what will happen in two years. I want to find out what happens

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tomorrow. What will you do if you don't get that assurance? I will

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either abstain, or I will vote to keep this amendment within the Bill.

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I will either vote against my government, which I do not do

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likely, I have never voted against my government until the Chris Leslie

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clause when the Bill was going through, or I will abstain, which

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has pretty much the same effect because it comes into the Commons

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with both amendments so you have positively to vote to take the map.

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Can you give us an idea of how many like-minded conservative colleagues

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there are. I genuinely do not know. You must talk to each other. I do

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not talk to every member of my party. You know people who are

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like-minded. I do. I am not doing numbers games. I know you want that

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but I genuinely do not know the figure. I think this is an

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uncomfortable truth. People have to understand what has happened in our

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country, two particular newspapers, creating an atmosphere and setting

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an agenda and I think many people are rather concerned, some

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frightened, to put their head over the parapet. There are many millions

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of people who feel totally excluded from this process. Many of them

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voted to remain. And they have lost their voice. We have covered the

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ground I wanted to. We're joined now by the Ukip MEP

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and former leader Nigel Farage. Article 50 triggered, we are leaving

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the EU, the single market and the customs union. What is left you to

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complain about? All of that will happen and hopefully we will get the

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triggered this week which is good news. What worries me a little I'm

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not sure the government recognises how strong their handers. At the

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summit in Brussels, the word in the corridors is that we are prepared to

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give away fishing waters as a bargaining chip and the worry is

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what deal we get. Are we leaving, yes I am pleased about that. You are

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under relevant voice in the deal because the deal will be voted on in

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Parliament and you have one MP. You are missing the point, the real vote

:18:32.:18:35.

in parliament is not in London but Strasbourg. This is perhaps the

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biggest obstacle the British Government faces. Not what happens

:18:40.:18:43.

in the Commons that the end of the two years, the European Parliament

:18:44.:18:48.

could veto the deal. What that means is people need to adopt a different

:18:49.:18:53.

approach. We do not need to be lobbying in the corridors of

:18:54.:18:56.

Brussels to get a good deal, we need is a country to be out there talking

:18:57.:19:01.

to the German car workers and Belgian chocolate makers, putting as

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much pressure as we can on politicians from across Europe to

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come to a sensible arrangement. It is in their interests more than

:19:10.:19:14.

ours. In what way is the vision of Brexit set out by David Davis any

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different from your own? I am delighted there are people now

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adopting the position I argued for many years. Good. But now... Like

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Douglas Carswell, he said he found David Davis' performers this morning

:19:34.:19:38.

reassuring. It is. And just as when Theresa May was Home Secretary every

:19:39.:19:43.

performance she gave was hugely reassuring. She was seen to be a

:19:44.:19:47.

heroine after her conference speeches and then did not deliver. I

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am concerned that even before we start we are making concessions. You

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described in the EU's divorce bill demands, 60 billion euros is floated

:20:00.:20:03.

around. You said it is laughable and I understand that. Do you maintain

:20:04.:20:09.

that we will not have to pay a penny to leave? It is nine months since we

:20:10.:20:17.

voted exit and assuming the trigger of Article 50, we would have paid 30

:20:18.:20:23.

billion in since we had a vote. We are still members. But honestly, I

:20:24.:20:27.

do not think there is an appetite for us to pay a massive divorce

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Bill. There are assets also. Not a penny? There will be some ongoing

:20:33.:20:39.

commitments, but the numbers talked about our 50, ?60 billion, they are

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frankly laughable. I am trying to find out if you are prepared to

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accept some kind of exit cost, it may be nowhere near 60 billion. We

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have to do a net agreement, the government briefed about our share

:20:56.:20:58.

of the European Union investment bank. Would you accept a

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transitional arrangement, deal, five, ten billion, as part of the

:21:05.:21:10.

divorce settlement? We are painted net ?30 million every single day at

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the moment, ?10 billion plus every year. That is just our contribution.

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We are going to make a massive saving on this. What do you make of

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what Anna Soubry said, that if there is no deal, and it is being talked

:21:27.:21:31.

about more. Maybe the government managing expectations. There is an

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expectation we will have a deal, but if there is no deal, that the

:21:36.:21:40.

government cannot just go to WTO rules, but it has to have a vote in

:21:41.:21:46.

parliament? By the time we get to that there will be a general

:21:47.:21:48.

election coming down the tracks and I suspect that if at the end of the

:21:49.:21:54.

two-year process there is no deal and by the way, no deal is a lot

:21:55.:21:58.

better for the nation than where we currently are, because we freed of

:21:59.:22:03.

regulations and able to make our own deals in the world. I think what

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would happen, and if Parliament said it did not back, at the end of the

:22:07.:22:13.

negotiation a general election would happen quickly. According to reports

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this morning, one of your most senior aides has passed a dossier to

:22:21.:22:25.

police claiming Tories committed electoral fraud in Thanet South, the

:22:26.:22:30.

seat contested in the election. What evidence to you have? I read that in

:22:31.:22:35.

the newspapers as you have. I am not going to comment on it. Will you not

:22:36.:22:38.

aware of the contents of the dossier? I am not aware of the

:22:39.:22:45.

dossier. He was your election strategists. I am dubious as to

:22:46.:22:51.

whether this dossier exists at all. Perhaps the newspapers have got this

:22:52.:22:57.

wrong. Concerns about the downloading of data the took place

:22:58.:23:04.

in that constituency, there are. Allegedly, he has refuted it, was it

:23:05.:23:11.

done by your MP to give information to the Tories, do you have evidence

:23:12.:23:16.

about? We have evidence Mr Carswell downloaded information, we have no

:23:17.:23:23.

evidence what he did with it. It is not just your aide who has been

:23:24.:23:27.

making allegations against the Conservatives in Thanet South and

:23:28.:23:33.

other seats, if the evidence was to be substantial, and if it was to

:23:34.:23:40.

result in another by-election being called an Thanet South had to be

:23:41.:23:44.

fought again, would you be the Ukip candidate? I probably would. You

:23:45.:23:49.

probably would? Yes. Just probably? Just probably. It would be your

:23:50.:23:55.

eighth attempt. Winning seats in parliament under first past the post

:23:56.:23:59.

is not the only way to change politics in Britain and I would like

:24:00.:24:02.

to think I proved that. Let's go back to Anna Soubry. The implication

:24:03.:24:08.

of what we were saying on the panel at the start of the show and what

:24:09.:24:12.

Nigel Farage was saying there would be that if at the end of the process

:24:13.:24:17.

whatever the vote, if the government were to lose it, it would provoke a

:24:18.:24:21.

general election properly. I think that would be right. Let's get real.

:24:22.:24:26.

The government is not going to come to Parliament with anything other

:24:27.:24:30.

than something it believes is a good deal and if it rejected it, would be

:24:31.:24:39.

unlikely, there would be a de facto vote of no confidence and it would

:24:40.:24:42.

be within the fixed term Parliaments act and that be it. The problem is,

:24:43.:24:47.

more likely, because of the story put up about the 50 billion, 60

:24:48.:24:53.

billion and you look at the way things are flagged up that both the

:24:54.:24:57.

Prime Minister and Boris Johnson saying, we should be asking them for

:24:58.:25:01.

money back, I think the big fear and the fear I have is we will be

:25:02.:25:06.

crashing out in six months. You think we could leave as quickly as

:25:07.:25:11.

six months. Explain that. I think they will stoke up the demand from

:25:12.:25:17.

the EU for 50, 60 billion back and my real concern is that within six

:25:18.:25:21.

months, where we're not making much progress, maybe nine months, and

:25:22.:25:26.

people are getting increasingly fed up with the EU because they are told

:25:27.:25:31.

it wants unreasonable demands, and then the crash. I think what is

:25:32.:25:34.

happening is the government is putting in place scaffolding at the

:25:35.:25:39.

bottom of the cliff to break our fall when we come to fall off that

:25:40.:25:44.

cliff and I think many in government are preparing not for a two-year

:25:45.:25:49.

process, but six, to nine months, off the cliff, out we go. That is my

:25:50.:25:55.

fear. That is interesting. I have not heard that express before by

:25:56.:25:59.

someone in your position. I suspect you have made Nigel Farage's date.

:26:00.:26:07.

It is a lovely thought. I would say to Anna Soubry she is out of date

:26:08.:26:12.

with this. 40 years ago there was a good argument for joining the common

:26:13.:26:15.

market because tariffs around the world was so high. That has changed

:26:16.:26:20.

with the World Trade Organisation. We are leaving the EU and rejoining

:26:21.:26:24.

a great big world and it is exciting. She was giving an

:26:25.:26:33.

interesting perspective on what could happen in nine months rather

:26:34.:26:34.

than two years. I thank you both. It was Philip Hammond's first

:26:35.:26:39.

budget on Wednesday - billed as a steady-as-she-goes

:26:40.:26:41.

affair, but turned out to cause uproar after the Chancellor appeared

:26:42.:26:47.

to contradict a Tory manifesto commitment with an increase

:26:48.:26:50.

in national insurance contributions. The aim was to address what some see

:26:51.:26:52.

as an imbalance in the tax system, where employees pay

:26:53.:27:01.

more National Insurance The controversy centres

:27:02.:27:02.

on increasing the so-called class 4 rate for the self-employed who make

:27:03.:27:05.

a profit of more than ?8,060 a year. It will go up in stages

:27:06.:27:08.

from 9% to 11% in 2019. The changes mean that over one

:27:09.:27:15.

and a half million will pay on average ?240 a year

:27:16.:27:19.

more in contributions. Some Conservative MPs were unhappy,

:27:20.:27:23.

with even the Wales Minister saying: "I will apologise to every

:27:24.:27:29.

voter in Wales that read the Conservative manifesto

:27:30.:27:32.

in the 2015 election." The Sun labelled Philip

:27:33.:27:34.

Hammond "spite van man". The Daily Mail called the budget

:27:35.:27:39.

"no laughing matter". By Thursday, Theresa May

:27:40.:27:42.

said the government One of the first things I did

:27:43.:27:44.

as Prime Minister was to commission Matthew Taylor to review the rights

:27:45.:27:51.

and protections that were available to self-employed workers

:27:52.:27:54.

and whether they should be enhanced. People will be able to look

:27:55.:27:57.

at the government paper when we produce it, showing

:27:58.:28:00.

all our changes, and take And, of course, the Chancellor will

:28:01.:28:02.

be speaking, as will his ministers, to MPs, businesspeople and others

:28:03.:28:07.

to listen to the concerns. Well, the man you heard mentioned

:28:08.:28:12.

there, Matthew Taylor, has the job of producing

:28:13.:28:14.

a report into the future Welcome. The Chancellor has decided

:28:15.:28:27.

the self-employed should pay almost the same in National Insurance, not

:28:28.:28:32.

the same but almost, as the employed will stop what is left of your

:28:33.:28:37.

commission? The commission has a broader frame of reference and we

:28:38.:28:40.

are interested in the quality of work in the economy at the heart of

:28:41.:28:46.

what I hope will be proposing is a set of shifts that will improve the

:28:47.:28:51.

quality of that work so we have an economy where all work is fair and

:28:52.:28:55.

decent and all jobs give people scope for development and

:28:56.:28:59.

fulfilment. The issue of taxes a small part. You will cover that? We

:29:00.:29:07.

will, because the tax system and employment regulation system drive

:29:08.:29:09.

particular behaviours in our labour market. You approve I think of the

:29:10.:29:16.

general direction of this policy of raising National Insurance on the

:29:17.:29:21.

self-employed. Taxing them in return perhaps for more state benefits. Why

:29:22.:29:26.

are so many others on the left against it from Tim Farron to John

:29:27.:29:30.

McDonnell? Tax rises are unpopular and it is the role of the opposition

:29:31.:29:35.

parties to make capital from unpopular tax rises. I think as tax

:29:36.:29:39.

rises go this is broadly progressive. There are self-employed

:29:40.:29:43.

people on low incomes and they will be better off. It is economic league

:29:44.:29:48.

rational because the reason for the difference in National Insurance --

:29:49.:29:51.

economically. It was to do with state entitlements. The government

:29:52.:29:56.

is consulting about paid parental leave. A series of governments have

:29:57.:30:02.

not been good about thinking about medium sustainability of the tax

:30:03.:30:06.

base. Self-employment is growing. But it is eroding the tax base. It

:30:07.:30:10.

is important to address those issues. A number of think tanks have

:30:11.:30:17.

said this is a progressive move. Yet, a number of left-wing

:30:18.:30:22.

politicians have been against it. And a number of Tories have said

:30:23.:30:28.

this is a progressive move and not a Tory government move, the balance of

:30:29.:30:32.

you will pay more tax, but you will get more state benefits is not a

:30:33.:30:37.

Tory approach to things. That a Tory approach will be you will pay less

:30:38.:30:40.

tax but entitled to fewer benefits as well.

:30:41.:30:43.

I preferred in and policies to politics -- I prefer policies. When

:30:44.:30:53.

people look at the policy and when they look the fact that there is no

:30:54.:30:57.

real historical basis for that big national insurance differential,

:30:58.:31:00.

they see it is a sensible policy. I don't have to deal with the

:31:01.:31:04.

politics. There has been a huge growth in self-employment from the

:31:05.:31:08.

turn of the millennium. It's been strongest amongst older workers,

:31:09.:31:09.

women part-timers. Do you have any idea, do you have

:31:10.:31:17.

the data in your commission that could tell us how many are taking

:31:18.:31:21.

self-employment because they like the flexibility and they like the

:31:22.:31:26.

tax advantages that come with it, too, or they are being forced into

:31:27.:31:31.

it by employers who don't want the extra costs of employment? Do we

:31:32.:31:35.

know the difference? We do, broadly. Most surveys on self-employment and

:31:36.:31:42.

flexible forms of employment suggest about two thirds to three quarters

:31:43.:31:44.

enjoy it, they like the flexibility, they like the autonomy and about a

:31:45.:31:48.

third to one quarter are less happy. That tends to be because they would

:31:49.:31:53.

like to have a full-time permanent job. It is not necessary that they

:31:54.:31:55.

don't enjoy what they are doing, they would like to do other things.

:31:56.:32:00.

And some of the protections that come with it? Yes. There are some

:32:01.:32:04.

people who are forced into southern employees by high-risk but also some

:32:05.:32:08.

people feel like they can't get a proper job as it were. --

:32:09.:32:12.

self-employment by people who hire them. It is on the narrow matter of

:32:13.:32:18.

tax revenues but if you are employed on ?32,000 the state will take over

:32:19.:32:22.

?6,000 in national insurance contributions, that is quite chunky.

:32:23.:32:26.

If you are self-employed it is ?2300. But the big difference

:32:27.:32:31.

between those figures isn't what the employee is paying, it's the

:32:32.:32:37.

employer's contributions up to almost 14%, and cupped for as much

:32:38.:32:41.

as you are paid. What do you do about employers' contributions for

:32:42.:32:50.

the self employed? -- it is uncapped for as much. What I recommend is

:32:51.:32:54.

that we should probably move from taxing employment to taxing labour.

:32:55.:32:58.

We should probably have a more level playing field so it doesn't really

:32:59.:33:02.

matter... Explained that I thought it was the same thing. If you are a

:33:03.:33:06.

self-employed gardener, you are a different tax regime to a gardener

:33:07.:33:11.

who works for a gardening firm. On the individual side and on the firm

:33:12.:33:19.

side. As we see new business models, so-called gig working, partly with

:33:20.:33:22.

technology, we need a more level playing field saying that we're

:33:23.:33:27.

taxing people's work, not the form in which they deliver that. That is

:33:28.:33:31.

part of the reason we have seen the growth of particular business

:33:32.:33:34.

models. They are innovative and creative and partly driven by the

:33:35.:33:39.

fact that if you can describe yourself as self-employed there are

:33:40.:33:43.

tax advantages. Coming out in June? Will you come back and talk to us?

:33:44.:33:45.

Yes. We say goodbye to viewers

:33:46.:33:47.

in Scotland, who leave us now Coming up here in 20 minutes,

:33:48.:33:52.

we'll be talking to the former Tory MP who was the root

:33:53.:33:57.

of Donald Trump's allegation Hello and welcome to the Sunday

:33:58.:34:13.

politics here in the glorious west Tourists bring millions

:34:14.:34:15.

to the west's economy, but could some of the money plug a gap

:34:16.:34:22.

in council finances? With me are two politicians

:34:23.:34:32.

who could do with a few bob, they are bon Howlett

:34:33.:34:35.

Conservative MP for Bath and Martin Holmwood the former Lib Dem

:34:36.:34:37.

MP from Cheltenham. We'll hear from them

:34:38.:34:39.

in just a moment. First, what is to become

:34:40.:34:41.

of us when we get The Chancellor increased spending

:34:42.:34:43.

on social care by a couple of billion this week,

:34:44.:34:47.

but even some of his supporters say that is just

:34:48.:34:49.

a sticking plaster. After 63 years of marriage,

:34:50.:34:58.

Don and Enid Lewis need a little Because I am here

:34:59.:35:00.

with him all the time. I would rather have

:35:01.:35:13.

Don home than him But if we didn't have the carers,

:35:14.:35:15.

he would be in the home. Somebody to get me up

:35:16.:35:22.

in the morning, put me Pop in and make sure I can go

:35:23.:35:30.

to the toilet in the afternoon. Four times a day, carers come in,

:35:31.:35:43.

but it nearly went badly wrong. Earlier this month, the firm

:35:44.:35:46.

contracted to provide the care went Over the weekend, we had very

:35:47.:35:49.

few problems at all. Only four people said

:35:50.:35:55.

they had a staff member It is not clear why

:35:56.:36:01.

the care firm failed, but one factor could

:36:02.:36:04.

have We did encourage our

:36:05.:36:05.

providers to introduce national living wage which is

:36:06.:36:08.

fantastic for our carers, are domiciled carers, and I understand

:36:09.:36:10.

that providers have had a problem The council insists they have put

:36:11.:36:13.

more money into social With elections coming up,

:36:14.:36:18.

it is a sensitive time. Political rivals say

:36:19.:36:21.

the system needs to It has been an accident waiting

:36:22.:36:23.

to happen for too long. We would look to

:36:24.:36:26.

bring it in house so that we could have some control

:36:27.:36:29.

over what is happening. We wouldn't have a company

:36:30.:36:31.

suddenly pulling the rug. The central Government has been

:36:32.:36:34.

cutting local governments back and back and back over

:36:35.:36:37.

the last few years. From the Chancellor,

:36:38.:36:39.

a partial answer this Alongside additional funding,

:36:40.:36:44.

the health and community secretaries will announce measures to identify

:36:45.:36:50.

and support authorities which are Philip Hammond announced ?2 billion

:36:51.:36:53.

extra for social care. For years, local authorities had

:36:54.:36:57.

complained about the size of the Pressure including from senior

:36:58.:37:04.

Conservatives across the West Country has built to

:37:05.:37:09.

a crescendo fuelled Country has built to a crescendo

:37:10.:37:13.

fuelled by evidence At Westminster, many MPs

:37:14.:37:16.

here feel that party divisions to be set aside

:37:17.:37:27.

to come up with a proper

:37:28.:37:28.

long-term solution. Andrew Murrison is among a growing

:37:29.:37:36.

number of Conservatives We do need to have a general

:37:37.:37:39.

accommodation about the public any tax payers about how

:37:40.:37:42.

we fund these things. I think the best way

:37:43.:37:44.

to deal with this is to establish a commission with

:37:45.:37:47.

a reasonable and fairly tight time frame so that we can discuss

:37:48.:37:49.

and explode and explore all of those Find some way of finding

:37:50.:37:53.

the really quite Back in Cheltenham, Don and Enid

:37:54.:37:55.

are grateful for the care that they They simply hope to spend the rest

:37:56.:38:00.

of their lives together. The ?2 billion of the

:38:01.:38:07.

Chancellor gave in his budget to local councils, even

:38:08.:38:16.

some of his supporters Like Don and Enid, my grandparents

:38:17.:38:18.

who have recently died had a series of strokes,

:38:19.:38:22.

they had been in homes I think 2 billion is very welcome,

:38:23.:38:24.

but of course we need to be looking at the long-term shortfall

:38:25.:38:29.

in social care spending and we need to be making sure this is going

:38:30.:38:32.

to be financially sustainable. Thus, we need to be

:38:33.:38:36.

making sure that we integrate properly health and social

:38:37.:38:38.

care with housing and that is something that Bath

:38:39.:38:41.

and North East Somerset council Bath and North East Somerset

:38:42.:38:43.

Council's getting an extra ?2.6 million this year

:38:44.:38:50.

as a result of what the Chancellor It should be able

:38:51.:38:53.

to provide a lot more ?2.6 million needs to be spent

:38:54.:38:57.

on the front line, to do that we need to be make sure

:38:58.:39:02.

that those families who do need to

:39:03.:39:04.

be cared for at home have the right system

:39:05.:39:05.

in place for them to receive that at The Government's brought in this

:39:06.:39:09.

national living wage which is That is going to swallow up a lot

:39:10.:39:12.

of that 2.6 million, isn't it? Because the care homes

:39:13.:39:17.

will have to put up In order to compensate for that,

:39:18.:39:19.

the last Government before the reshuffle saw an increase in

:39:20.:39:23.

the social care preceptor, as well. Which has been almost universally

:39:24.:39:26.

supported in my authority and around all authorities across the rest

:39:27.:39:27.

of the country which should act to We have been calling

:39:28.:39:30.

for the 2 billion extra to be put into social care this year along

:39:31.:39:38.

with another 2 billion for NHS and That is what we think

:39:39.:39:41.

the urgent cash injection is Lib Dem MP Norman Lamb

:39:42.:39:44.

has called for that. As well as that, all-party

:39:45.:39:50.

talks to try and sort out This money the Chancellor

:39:51.:39:53.

is providing is spread over several years,

:39:54.:39:56.

so it seemed we won't be enough. The problem is the economics

:39:57.:39:58.

of providing this care if county council and other budgets

:39:59.:40:01.

are constantly decreasing. Care providers simply can't

:40:02.:40:03.

make the numbers add up. It was, but it was

:40:04.:40:05.

the Lib Dems who backed conservative austerity

:40:06.:40:10.

during the coalition Government that And yet this is happening

:40:11.:40:13.

on the Conservative's This has been going

:40:14.:40:17.

for years, hasn't it? The NHS deficits under

:40:18.:40:20.

the coalition, money was tight. Nobody was saying that everyone

:40:21.:40:23.

was flushed with money, but most NHS The last two years, two

:40:24.:40:26.

thirds of NHS trusts have gone into deficit, including

:40:27.:40:30.

Gloucestershire and that deficit is So the funding crisis

:40:31.:40:33.

in health and social care has got worse just

:40:34.:40:36.

in the last two years. Nobody is saying even under

:40:37.:40:43.

the coalition that we weren't flush with money,

:40:44.:40:46.

but the crisis has Conservatives have taken their eye

:40:47.:40:48.

off the ball and haven't appreciated the urgent cash crisis that is now

:40:49.:40:52.

facing health and social care. But the budget

:40:53.:40:55.

reductions were brought in and they were sort

:40:56.:40:56.

of loaded so they would take effect sometime down

:40:57.:40:59.

the line, won't they? Well, we differentiated

:41:00.:41:02.

ourselves actually at the end of the coalition from

:41:03.:41:05.

the Conservative's forward spending Where would the extra 4 billion that

:41:06.:41:07.

you said we need come from? It would have to come

:41:08.:41:15.

from public finances. Well, that is the urgent

:41:16.:41:17.

cash injection. Government's able

:41:18.:41:19.

to facilitate that. In a ?600 billion

:41:20.:41:24.

budget, you can find the extra 4 billion

:41:25.:41:26.

in the It is true, we need a long-term

:41:27.:41:27.

funding settlement for health and social

:41:28.:41:31.

care in this country. That is Norman Lamb has been

:41:32.:41:32.

calling for all-party talks that will bring everybody together

:41:33.:41:35.

and try and build a consensus for a The long and the short

:41:36.:41:38.

of it is this has not been created by either the coalition

:41:39.:41:42.

or the current Government, this is a We have had an ageing

:41:43.:41:45.

population, the system hasn't However much money you

:41:46.:41:48.

put into this system, Lib Democrat policy,

:41:49.:41:51.

potentially borrowing more money in order

:41:52.:41:54.

to do that, it will not solve

:41:55.:42:00.

the ultimate problem We have do introduce

:42:01.:42:02.

an integrated system. You can fiddle about with

:42:03.:42:05.

the budgets, but demand is going up, so it will need for more

:42:06.:42:08.

finances, won't it? We need to make sure

:42:09.:42:15.

the money that is being given on the front line

:42:16.:42:17.

because at the moment if you say ?400 million

:42:18.:42:20.

is going to be given to

:42:21.:42:21.

mental health budgets, for example, I can tell

:42:22.:42:23.

you directly in that local

:42:24.:42:25.

mental health trust, we are not seeing that money hitting

:42:26.:42:26.

the front line. And I don't want that

:42:27.:42:29.

to be subsumed into the Largely it is being

:42:30.:42:31.

subsumed into the deficits which are being provided

:42:32.:42:36.

and also other areas which are fashion commissioning

:42:37.:42:40.

budgets and all the We do to make sure it

:42:41.:42:42.

is a more efficient. Why are some conservatives

:42:43.:42:45.

now wanting all-party talks to discuss how we improve

:42:46.:42:47.

budgets for social care and indeed I have worked with the Department

:42:48.:42:50.

of Health and labour. I've worked with the last

:42:51.:42:55.

coalition Government now I I have seen all parties come to this

:42:56.:42:57.

with a very party political We're not seeing much better

:42:58.:43:01.

services on the front line. We have said if necessary

:43:02.:43:06.

new tax has to be brought And we absolutely have,

:43:07.:43:11.

the whole party has been calling We haven't taken a party

:43:12.:43:16.

political position. I very much hope

:43:17.:43:18.

that the Conservative select committee chair

:43:19.:43:20.

Sarah Williston will be receiving the full support

:43:21.:43:22.

of the Liberal Democrats and Sarah and Norman Lamb have both

:43:23.:43:24.

co-operated on this, so yes. It is not likely that

:43:25.:43:28.

Labour will give you the political cover to introduce

:43:29.:43:30.

difficult decisions on social If they wanted to take

:43:31.:43:32.

the party politics out of it and actually deliver real

:43:33.:43:35.

solutions that would make a big difference to the couple that

:43:36.:43:38.

you have been seen, then yes, they The trouble is that there is also

:43:39.:43:41.

a cash crisis right now. We have got Clevelink

:43:42.:43:45.

going bust in social care, You need that urgent cash injection

:43:46.:43:47.

now and this budget has The 2 billion shortfall

:43:48.:43:54.

is this year. Continued austerity means

:43:55.:43:59.

council budgets are likely to be squeezed for years

:44:00.:44:03.

to come, so no wonder they are looking for

:44:04.:44:06.

new ways to raise money. In Bath, one idea is to tap

:44:07.:44:09.

into the millions of pounds It's not hard to see why

:44:10.:44:11.

tourists flock to Bath. But could they help

:44:12.:44:20.

the council mend its This is something that

:44:21.:44:27.

applies across Europe, I personally am used to paying it

:44:28.:44:34.

when I go to holiday to It is not a large sum

:44:35.:44:38.

of money, but what we will get with the number

:44:39.:44:45.

of visitors that come to the city,

:44:46.:44:48.

a significant increase in revenue to fill some of the gaps that are

:44:49.:44:52.

created by changing finances that we The council stresses this

:44:53.:44:55.

is at the very earliest stages, There is an obstacle

:44:56.:44:59.

in the way of the city of Bath tapping into

:45:00.:45:03.

the hundreds of thousands of tourists

:45:04.:45:04.

who come here each year. The Government currently

:45:05.:45:07.

won't allow it. But councillors have

:45:08.:45:11.

been to London to lobby do so and a future metro mayor

:45:12.:45:13.

could pile on the pressure, too. But the tourists

:45:14.:45:19.

themselves, are they Would that put you off

:45:20.:45:21.

coming to Bath? Because it is a beautiful place

:45:22.:45:27.

and everything has to be kept up to standard, so if that is

:45:28.:45:33.

the only way to do it, then that is the way

:45:34.:45:36.

to do There is such a historic

:45:37.:45:38.

presence to the city, ?2 a It is really expensive

:45:39.:45:43.

anyway, so ?1 isn't going to make much of

:45:44.:45:49.

a difference, you know. One or ?2 would be OK, but of course

:45:50.:45:51.

we would prefer no extra ?2 a night might not sound much,

:45:52.:45:54.

but a family of four staying All the hoteliers in

:45:55.:46:06.

Bath that I have spoken It is one of the original

:46:07.:46:11.

Georgian drawing rooms This boutique hotel believes

:46:12.:46:17.

in such a competitive market, they would end

:46:18.:46:23.

up bearing the cost. One of the things that gets quoted,

:46:24.:46:25.

well it works in France and Italy. It works in those

:46:26.:46:32.

countries because those countries have recognised

:46:33.:46:33.

the They have made reductions

:46:34.:46:35.

in their rates of VAT. The idea that you can come

:46:36.:46:40.

along and just say well, we will put another pound or ?2

:46:41.:46:44.

a night onto Hotel accommodation is possibly the

:46:45.:46:46.

tipping point that starts to make people go, Bath is

:46:47.:46:51.

just too expensive. They also believe

:46:52.:46:56.

it is wrong to target They also believe it is wrong

:46:57.:47:03.

to target hotels alone They say they don't mind

:47:04.:47:06.

making a contribution. They are launching

:47:07.:47:09.

their own booking site with the money going back

:47:10.:47:10.

into promoting tourism. All the profits from that

:47:11.:47:12.

will go towards keeping It would pay for maybe

:47:13.:47:14.

contribution to festivals, to the Bath preservation

:47:15.:47:18.

trust, but it would be not only protect Bath,

:47:19.:47:20.

but also people would buy into it. But with the council

:47:21.:47:29.

still needing a change of law before they can

:47:30.:47:33.

introduce a charge, tourists will remain

:47:34.:47:35.

for now And to discuss that we are

:47:36.:47:36.

joined by a day-tripper. He is Dominic Tristram,

:47:37.:47:46.

the former Green party candidate for Bath who

:47:47.:47:48.

supports a tourist tax. You're very welcome

:47:49.:47:52.

on your day out here. How can you justify fleecing

:47:53.:47:56.

tourists who come to Bath? As has already been

:47:57.:47:58.

mentioned, we are facing a huge cut,

:47:59.:48:00.

a central Government cut, We can either increase

:48:01.:48:02.

council tax, which is a regressive tax where

:48:03.:48:09.

the poorest pay an unfair share,

:48:10.:48:10.

or we can actually put a charge How do you know that

:48:11.:48:13.

they can afford it? Because the number of people

:48:14.:48:19.

paying is quite high because Bath has a huge number

:48:20.:48:22.

of tourists, as has been mentioned. Other cities which are similar

:48:23.:48:25.

have a similar pool of tourists, Slap a charge on them

:48:26.:48:28.

as they come in? Actually, I don't like to think

:48:29.:48:39.

of it as a tax, I like to think of it as a tourist

:48:40.:48:43.

investment fund. We can take this money and we can

:48:44.:48:45.

act to make Bath a nice place to go. Because of cuts to central

:48:46.:48:49.

Government grants, we can't... We are going to shortly stop

:48:50.:48:53.

funding the arts in Bath. People come to Bath not

:48:54.:48:55.

because of just the places to go, they come because

:48:56.:48:59.

of the history, there Just before we bring

:49:00.:49:01.

in the other guests, would you charged just foreign

:49:02.:49:05.

visitors or all visitors? We're flexible

:49:06.:49:07.

because the legislation I would not charge

:49:08.:49:09.

the under tens, so families don't pay any more

:49:10.:49:14.

and I would actually make it That will mean that everyone

:49:15.:49:17.

who can afford to pay, If Dominic is going to charge me

:49:18.:49:22.

for his next dinner party, I would probably suggest I'm not

:49:23.:49:28.

going to attend, I'm afraid. But I am yet to be

:49:29.:49:30.

convinced about this, the Government is yet to be

:49:31.:49:32.

convinced about this. Bath in North East Somerset

:49:33.:49:34.

Council have made their representations, unlike

:49:35.:49:37.

what Dominic's just said, I'm quite concerned as to how progressive this

:49:38.:49:48.

tax is because if you look at this being larger hotels

:49:49.:49:51.

and interestingly the Queensbury would be exempt for this

:49:52.:49:53.

because it is too small a number of rooms,

:49:54.:49:55.

we are talking about a large hotels. Often the people who

:49:56.:49:58.

attend those large hotels like the Travelodges,

:49:59.:50:00.

obviously other supplies are available, those hotels actually see

:50:01.:50:01.

people from less wealthy background I think slapping a tax on the people

:50:02.:50:04.

would actually be very You heard the tourists

:50:05.:50:08.

in Bath that, people coming from America spending

:50:09.:50:11.

thousands and thousands on a European tour,

:50:12.:50:12.

they think a bedroom tax in Bath

:50:13.:50:13.

will make no difference whatsoever. facing the pressures at the moment,

:50:14.:50:16.

I don't think it ?56 charge per No, if you are looking at the seven

:50:17.:50:22.

night stay for example which we are looking

:50:23.:50:25.

to introduce, ?56 is a lot if it is only Bath

:50:26.:50:28.

doing this, then this is not universal across

:50:29.:50:31.

the First of all, I would say that

:50:32.:50:33.

Cheltenham's Lib Dem council manages to support the festivals and art

:50:34.:50:39.

councils without a tourist tax at We're just about to have

:50:40.:50:41.

250,000 people going to the turnstile at Cheltenham

:50:42.:50:45.

racecourse next week and that brings ?100 million

:50:46.:50:46.

in the local economy at the moment. I think that could be

:50:47.:50:49.

more if we could encourage more of those people

:50:50.:50:51.

to stay overnight in Cheltenham. I would worry that it

:50:52.:50:54.

could be less if We already have a high rate of VAT

:50:55.:50:56.

for tourist services in this country, it already feels quite

:50:57.:51:01.

expensive I think to tourists. I don't want to see

:51:02.:51:03.

that just getting But they support a lot

:51:04.:51:05.

of low paid jobs? We don't just have

:51:06.:51:19.

Gold Cup week, we have Jazz Festival, the science

:51:20.:51:21.

Festival, the other racing By and large, it adds up,

:51:22.:51:26.

it's waiters, its room cleaners. No, they spend money in local shops,

:51:27.:51:33.

local restaurant, they invest in local hotels that are actually

:51:34.:51:36.

investing back into the town. It is a lot of wear

:51:37.:51:38.

and tear into the town. And there is a supply chain

:51:39.:51:41.

to all of this that actually It is not just tourists

:51:42.:51:44.

that stay overnight, in Bath we get a lot

:51:45.:51:47.

of tourists coming in Bath we get a lot of tourists coming

:51:48.:51:49.

in to go to the theatre, festivals and music

:51:50.:51:52.

festivals, these guys will be losing out because of

:51:53.:51:55.

the grant being cut. There are people who come

:51:56.:51:57.

in from the States and Asia, they often stay in two or three

:51:58.:52:02.

places, Bath, London, go down to Parties who believe in a free

:52:03.:52:05.

market, it is interesting that they don't agree with charging the

:52:06.:52:10.

maximum we can get without losing Let's bring you back

:52:11.:52:13.

in on that, Ben. The supply chain is

:52:14.:52:16.

benefited by tourists. If it was to cross the entirety

:52:17.:52:18.

of the country, our Currently, it is only

:52:19.:52:21.

our city that is If other cities decided to introduce

:52:22.:52:24.

this, then our third highest overnight stay figure in the country

:52:25.:52:33.

would be detrimented. You can't just say, I'll go

:52:34.:52:35.

to Chippenham instead. We are helped by the

:52:36.:52:40.

uniqueness because tourists want to come

:52:41.:52:45.

and see that uniqueness. If we end up detriment in our image,

:52:46.:52:48.

our marketing brand And it would be

:52:49.:52:52.

round the rest of the world by doing this,

:52:53.:52:56.

it would cause people to go to areas around

:52:57.:52:59.

There is a huge hole in the public finances thanks

:53:00.:53:02.

to your failed ideology of austerity.

:53:03.:53:04.

Because that is what the question is.

:53:05.:53:12.

It is not will it put off tourists, it is how do we

:53:13.:53:15.

fix the hold that this failed Government has created in our

:53:16.:53:18.

OK, we are going to have two let that question hang in the

:53:19.:53:22.

Just stay with us for a moment or two because

:53:23.:53:26.

let's look now back at the political week in just 60 seconds.

:53:27.:53:29.

This is how the south-west MEP Lord Dartmouth

:53:30.:53:34.

reacted when he was asked about wind farms on his land.

:53:35.:53:40.

Three years on, it has been revealed he was

:53:41.:53:42.

negotiating behind-the-scenes for a deal which could have netted his

:53:43.:53:44.

The woman behind the Brexit court case, Gina Millor,

:53:45.:53:48.

told students in Bristol her life had been ransacked.

:53:49.:53:50.

I knew there would be a backlash, but not at the

:53:51.:53:53.

It came a day before a man was charged with

:53:54.:53:57.

Plans to reopen the railway line between

:53:58.:54:01.

Portishead and Bristol are being scaled back.

:54:02.:54:05.

The west of England partnership says the estimated cost

:54:06.:54:08.

has tripled, so the route will see just one train an hour.

:54:09.:54:13.

Salisbury MP John Glenn called for tougher

:54:14.:54:15.

Often, they are large groups who show

:54:16.:54:19.

Ministers say they will look again at whether police have enough

:54:20.:54:24.

Ben, have you ever lost your temper in public?

:54:25.:54:36.

I love journalists, as you well know.

:54:37.:54:44.

How important is it to keep your calm when you are in the public

:54:45.:54:48.

I think it is very important, actually.

:54:49.:54:50.

I think nobody likes that kind of aggressive confrontational

:54:51.:54:53.

One of the constant complaints about the way the House

:54:54.:54:56.

of Commons is represented on TV is that it focused

:54:57.:54:59.

on Prime Minister's Question Time, where you have

:55:00.:55:04.

certain elements both on Labour and Conservative side, who do this

:55:05.:55:06.

shouting and jeering and it is really, really bad for the

:55:07.:55:09.

Maybe it is because there are too few of us at the

:55:10.:55:17.

moment, but we will sort that out at the next election.

:55:18.:55:20.

Do you have any sympathy with politicians who are

:55:21.:55:22.

under pressure, but have to keep absolutely calm?

:55:23.:55:32.

I think a lot of reasons why people feel

:55:33.:55:34.

One of the reasons is that they don't

:55:35.:55:37.

believe politicians think about the things

:55:38.:55:38.

You have politician saying we must fixed the NHS and then they seem

:55:39.:55:43.

when they hear reports of the NHS collapsing.

:55:44.:55:46.

I think really a bit of anger and a bit of passion,

:55:47.:55:48.

people would like to see that in their politicians.

:55:49.:55:50.

Let's tend to Brexit before we leave it

:55:51.:55:52.

Ben, what is going to happen with the House of Lords?

:55:53.:55:59.

This is going to be a very interesting week.

:56:00.:56:02.

We're about to discuss the two amendments

:56:03.:56:03.

I am working currently with colleagues to make

:56:04.:56:06.

sure that there are a series of concessions that are raised and I

:56:07.:56:09.

will reserve my judgment as to whether on not to back the

:56:10.:56:12.

Government depending on the assurances that I get.

:56:13.:56:14.

As a young MP, you have got ambitions, I suspect.

:56:15.:56:18.

Ultimately, I want to represent my constituents in the

:56:19.:56:20.

To be frank, I have a very serious sense of

:56:21.:56:23.

constitutional question about whether the Government has got this

:56:24.:56:25.

right, or whether it has got it wrong,

:56:26.:56:27.

and those assurances are

:56:28.:56:28.

And I guess you will be backing him all the way.

:56:29.:56:32.

I certainly think that the Lord amendments are trying to introduce a

:56:33.:56:35.

Bit of humanity and moderation into the process will sub there is no

:56:36.:56:40.

mandate for this hardline Brexit Theresa May is pursuing and if she

:56:41.:56:45.

wants a mandate, then she should pursue it. Why Mac we will leave it

:56:46.:56:51.

there. My thanks to my guests. Please follow us on Twitter for the

:56:52.:56:55.

latest political news from the west. If you want to come you can watch

:56:56.:56:59.

the programme again to your hearts content. It is available on our tee

:57:00.:57:03.

Now the government plans for new grammar schools.

:57:04.:57:19.

The Education Secretary Justine Greening was

:57:20.:57:20.

speaking to a conference of headteachers on Friday.

:57:21.:57:22.

They're normally a pretty polite bunch, but they didn't

:57:23.:57:24.

Broadcasters weren't allowed into the speech,

:57:25.:57:31.

but this was captured on a camera phone.

:57:32.:57:35.

And we have to recognise actually for grammars, in terms of

:57:36.:57:38.

disadvantaged children, that they have, they really

:57:39.:57:42.

do help them close the attainment gap.

:57:43.:57:45.

And at the same time we should recognise that

:57:46.:57:47.

..That parents also want choice for their children and that

:57:48.:57:54.

those schools are often very oversubscribed.

:57:55.:58:02.

I suppose it is a rite of passage for and education secretaries to

:58:03.:58:10.

have this at a head teachers conference book the head are usually

:58:11.:58:15.

more polite. Isn't part of the problem, whether one is for or

:58:16.:58:19.

against the expansion of grammar schools, the government plans are

:58:20.:58:25.

complicated, you cannot sum them up in a sentence. The proof of that is

:58:26.:58:29.

they can still get away with denying they are expanding grammar schools.

:58:30.:58:33.

They will find an alternative formulation because it is not as

:58:34.:58:36.

simple as a brute creation of what we used to know is grammar schools

:58:37.:58:40.

with the absolute cut-off of the 11 plus. I am surprised how easy they

:58:41.:58:48.

found it politically. We saw the clip of Justine Greening being

:58:49.:58:52.

jeered a little bit but in the grand scheme, compared to another

:58:53.:58:55.

government trying this idea a decade ago they have got away with it

:58:56.:59:00.

easily and I think what is happening is a perverse consequence of Brexit

:59:01.:59:03.

and the media attention on Brexit, the government of the day can just

:59:04.:59:08.

about get away with slightly more contentious domestic policies on the

:59:09.:59:12.

correct assumption we will be too busy investing our attention in

:59:13.:59:18.

Article 50 and two years of negotiations, WTO terms at

:59:19.:59:22.

everything we have been discussing. I wonder if after grammar schools

:59:23.:59:26.

there will be examples of contentious domestic policies

:59:27.:59:30.

Theresa May can slide in stock because Brexit sucks the life out,

:59:31.:59:38.

takes the attention away. You are a supporter. Broadly. Are you happy

:59:39.:59:43.

with the government approach? They need to have more gumption and stop

:59:44.:59:48.

being apologetic. It is a bazaar area of public policy where we judge

:59:49.:59:52.

the policy on grammar schools based on what it does for children whose

:59:53.:59:57.

parents are unemployed, living on sink estates in Liverpool. It is

:59:58.:00:02.

absurd, we don't judge any other policy like that. It is simple, not

:00:03.:00:07.

contentious, people who are not sure, ask them if they would apply

:00:08.:00:11.

to send their child there, six out of ten said they would. Parents want

:00:12.:00:18.

good schools for their children, we should have appropriate education

:00:19.:00:20.

and they should be straightforward, this is about the future of the

:00:21.:00:23.

economy and we need bright children to get education at the highest

:00:24.:00:27.

level, education for academically bright children. It is supposed to

:00:28.:00:34.

be a signature policy of the Theresa May administration that marks a

:00:35.:00:36.

government different from David Cameron's government who did not go

:00:37.:00:41.

down this road. The signature is pretty blurred, it is hard to read.

:00:42.:00:45.

It is. She is trying to address concerns about those who fail to get

:00:46.:00:53.

into these selective schools and tried to targeted in poorer areas

:00:54.:00:56.

and the rest of it. She will probably come across so many

:00:57.:01:00.

obstacles. It is not clear what form it will take in the end. It is

:01:01.:01:04.

really an example of a signature policy not fully thought through. I

:01:05.:01:07.

think it was one of her first announcements. It was. It surprised

:01:08.:01:12.

everybody. Surprised at the speed and pace at which they were planning

:01:13.:01:17.

to go. Ever since, there have been qualifications and hesitations en

:01:18.:01:21.

route with good cause, in my view. I disagree with Juliet that this is...

:01:22.:01:25.

We all want good schools but if you don't get in there and you end up in

:01:26.:01:29.

a less good school. They already do that. We have selection based on the

:01:30.:01:32.

income of parents getting into a good catchment area, based on the

:01:33.:01:36.

faith of the parents. That becomes very attainable! I might been too

:01:37.:01:43.

shot run christenings for these. -- I have been.

:01:44.:01:45.

Now, you may remember this time last week we were talking

:01:46.:01:48.

about the extraordinary claims by US President Donald Trump,

:01:49.:01:50.

on Twitter of course, that Barack Obama had ordered

:01:51.:01:52.

And there was me thinking that wiretaps went out

:01:53.:01:56.

Is it legal for a sitting President to do so, he asked,

:01:57.:02:01.

concluding it was a "new low", and later comparing it to Watergate.

:02:02.:02:10.

Since then, the White House has been pressed to provide evidence for this

:02:11.:02:13.

It hasn't, but it seems it may have initially come from a report on a US

:02:14.:02:19.

website by the former Conservative MP Louise Mensch.

:02:20.:02:22.

She wrote that the FBI had been granted a warrant to intercept

:02:23.:02:25.

communications between Trump's campaign and Russia.

:02:26.:02:32.

Well, Louise Mensch joins us now from New York.

:02:33.:02:40.

Louise, you claimed in early November that the FBI had secured a

:02:41.:02:47.

court warrants to monitor communications between trump Tower

:02:48.:02:51.

in New York at two Russian banks. It's now four months later. Isn't it

:02:52.:02:55.

the case that nobody has proved the existence of this warrant?

:02:56.:03:00.

First of all, forgive me Andrew, one takes 1's life in one's hand when it

:03:01.:03:06.

is you but I have to correct your characterisation of my reporting. It

:03:07.:03:10.

is very important. I did not report that the FBI had a warrant to

:03:11.:03:15.

intercept anything or that Trump tower was any part of it. What I

:03:16.:03:19.

reported was that the FBI obtained a warrant is targeted on all

:03:20.:03:24.

communications between two Russian banks and were, therefore, allowed

:03:25.:03:27.

to examine US persons in the context of their investigation. What the

:03:28.:03:34.

Americans call legally incidental collection. I certainly didn't

:03:35.:03:39.

report that the warrant was able to intercept or that it had location

:03:40.:03:43.

basis, for example Trump tower. I just didn't report that. The reason

:03:44.:03:49.

that matters so much is that I now believe based on the President's

:03:50.:03:53.

reaction, there may well be a wiretap act Trump Tower. If so,

:03:54.:03:57.

Donald Trump has just tweeted out evidence in an ongoing criminal case

:03:58.:04:00.

that neither I nor anybody else reported. He is right about

:04:01.:04:04.

Watergate because he will have committed obstruction of justice

:04:05.:04:08.

directly from his Twitter account. Let me come back as thank you for

:04:09.:04:12.

clarifying. Let me come back to the question. -- and thank you. We have

:04:13.:04:20.

not yet got proof that this warrant exists, do we? No and we are most

:04:21.:04:24.

unlikely to get it because it would be a heinous crime for Donald Trump

:04:25.:04:28.

to reveal its existence. In America they call it a Glomar response. I

:04:29.:04:32.

can neither confirm nor deny. That is what all American officials will

:04:33.:04:36.

have to say legally. If you are looking for proof, you won't get it

:04:37.:04:40.

until and unless a court cases brought. But that doesn't mean it

:04:41.:04:45.

doesn't exist. The BBC validated this two months after me in their

:04:46.:04:49.

reporting by the journalist Paul Wood. The Guardian, they also

:04:50.:04:54.

separately from their own sources validated the existence of the

:04:55.:04:57.

warrant. If you are in America, you would know that CNN and others are

:04:58.:05:00.

reporting that the investigation in ongoing. Let me come onto the wider

:05:01.:05:04.

point. You believe the Trump campaign including the president

:05:05.:05:09.

were complicit with the Russians during the 2016 election campaign to

:05:10.:05:13.

such an extent that Mr Trump should be impeached. What evidence did you

:05:14.:05:14.

have? That is an enormous amount of

:05:15.:05:24.

evidence. You could start with him saying, hey, Russia, if you are

:05:25.:05:27.

listening, please release all the Hillary Clinton's e-mails. That's

:05:28.:05:32.

not evidence. I think it rather is, actually. Especially if you look at

:05:33.:05:35.

some of the evidence that exists on Twitter and elsewhere of people

:05:36.:05:40.

talking directly to his social media manager, Dan should be no and

:05:41.:05:43.

telling him to do that before it happened. There is a bit out there.

:05:44.:05:48.

The BBC itself reported that in April of last year, a six agency

:05:49.:05:53.

task force, not just the FBI, but the Treasury Department, was looking

:05:54.:05:56.

at this. I believe there is an enormous amount of evidence. And

:05:57.:06:00.

then there is the steel dossier which was included in an official

:06:01.:06:02.

report of the US intelligence committee. You've also ... Just to

:06:03.:06:11.

be clear, we don't have hard evidence yet whether this warrant

:06:12.:06:15.

exists. It may or may not. There is doubt about... There are claims

:06:16.:06:19.

about whether there is evidence about Mr Trump and the Russians.

:06:20.:06:22.

That is another matter. You claimed that President Putin had Andrew

:06:23.:06:29.

Breitbart murdered to pave the way for Steve Bannon to play a key role

:06:30.:06:34.

in the Trump administration. I haven't. You said that Steve Bannon

:06:35.:06:39.

is behind bomb threats to Jewish community centres. Aren't you in

:06:40.:06:44.

danger of just peddling wild conspiracy theories? No. Festival, I

:06:45.:06:48.

haven't. No matter how many times people say this, it's not going to

:06:49.:06:53.

be true -- first of all. I said in twitter I believe that to be the

:06:54.:06:55.

case about the murder of Andrew Breitbart. You believe President

:06:56.:07:02.

Putin murdered him. I didn't! You said I reported it, but I believed

:07:03.:07:06.

it. You put it on twitter that you believed it but you don't have a

:07:07.:07:12.

shred of evidence. I do. Indeed, I know made assertions. What is the

:07:13.:07:16.

evidence that Mr Putin murdered Andrew Breitbart? I said I believe

:07:17.:07:22.

it. You may believe there are fairies at the bottom of your

:07:23.:07:25.

garden, it doesn't make it true. I may indeed. And if I say so, that's

:07:26.:07:31.

my belief. If I say I am reporting, as I did with the Fisa warrant

:07:32.:07:38.

exists, I have a basis in fact. They believe is just a belief. I know you

:07:39.:07:44.

are relatively new to journalism. Let me get the rules right. Andrew,

:07:45.:07:51.

jealousy is not your colour... If it is twitter, we don't believe it but

:07:52.:07:55.

if it is on your website, we should believe it? If I report something

:07:56.:08:00.

and I say this happened, then I am making an assertion. If I describe a

:08:01.:08:04.

belief, I am describing a belief. Subtlety may be a little difficult

:08:05.:08:09.

for you... No, no. If you want to be a journalist, beliefs have to be

:08:10.:08:16.

backed up with evidence. Really? Do you have a faith? It's not a matter

:08:17.:08:20.

of faith, maybe in your case, that President Putin murdered Andrew

:08:21.:08:26.

Breitbart. A belief and a report at two different things and no matter

:08:27.:08:29.

how often you say that they are the same, they will never be the same.

:08:30.:08:34.

You've said in today's Sunday Times here in London that you've turned

:08:35.:08:42.

into" a temporary superpower" where you "See things really clearly".

:08:43.:08:48.

Have you become delusional? No. I am describing a biological basis for

:08:49.:08:53.

ADHD, which I have. As any of your viewers who are doctors will know.

:08:54.:08:56.

It provides people with unfortunately a lot of scattered

:08:57.:09:00.

focus, they are very messy and absent-minded but when they are

:09:01.:09:03.

interested in things and they have ADHD they can have a condition which

:09:04.:09:07.

is hyper focus. You concentrate very hard on a given subject and you can

:09:08.:09:10.

see patterns and connections. That is biological. Thank you for

:09:11.:09:17.

explaining that. And for getting up early in New York. The first time

:09:18.:09:22.

ever I have interviewed a temporary superpower. Thank you. You are so

:09:23.:09:26.

lucky! You are so lucky! I don't think it's going to happen again.

:09:27.:09:30.

Please don't ask us to comment on that interview! I will not ask you,

:09:31.:09:34.

viewers will make up their own minds. Let's come back to be more

:09:35.:09:38.

mundane world of Article 50. Stop the killing!

:09:39.:09:43.

Will it get through at the government wanted it? Without the

:09:44.:09:48.

Lords amendment falling by the way that? I am sure the Lord will not

:09:49.:09:52.

try to ping-pong this back and forth. So we are at the end of this

:09:53.:09:55.

particular legislative phase. The fact that all three Brexit Cabinet

:09:56.:09:59.

ministers, number ten often don't like one of them going out on a

:10:00.:10:03.

broadcast interview on a Sunday, they've all been out and about. That

:10:04.:10:07.

suggests to me they are working on the assumption it will be triggered

:10:08.:10:11.

this week. This week. The negotiations will begin or at least

:10:12.:10:16.

the process begins. The negotiation process may be difficult, given all

:10:17.:10:19.

of the European elections. The Dutch this week. And then the French and

:10:20.:10:25.

maybe the Italians and certainly the Germans by the end of September,

:10:26.:10:28.

which is less predictable than it was. Given all that, what did you

:10:29.:10:33.

make of Anna Soubry's claim, Viacom on her part, that we may just end up

:10:34.:10:37.

crashing out in six months question -- fear on her part. It was not just

:10:38.:10:43.

that that we made that deliberately organising. I want us to get on with

:10:44.:10:45.

the deals. Everyone knows a good deal is the

:10:46.:10:53.

best option. Who knows what is going to be on the table when we finally

:10:54.:10:57.

go out? Fascinatingly, the demand for some money back, given the

:10:58.:11:02.

amount of money... Net gains and net costs in terms of us leaving for the

:11:03.:11:06.

EU. It is all to play for. That will be a possible early grounds for a

:11:07.:11:13.

confrontation between the UK and the EU. My understanding is that they

:11:14.:11:19.

expect to do a deal on reciprocal rights of EU nationals, EU nationals

:11:20.:11:22.

here, UK citizens there, quite quickly. They want to clear that up

:11:23.:11:26.

and that will be done. Then they will hit this problem that the EU

:11:27.:11:30.

will be saying you've got to agree the divorce Bill first before we

:11:31.:11:35.

talk about the free trade bill. David Davis saying quite clearly,

:11:36.:11:38.

no, they go together because of the size of the bill. It will be

:11:39.:11:43.

determined, in our part, by how good the access will be. The mutual

:11:44.:11:47.

recognition of EU residents' rights is no trouble. A huge amount of fuss

:11:48.:11:51.

is attracted to that subject but it is the easiest thing to deal with,

:11:52.:11:55.

as is free movement for tourists. Money is what will make it

:11:56.:11:58.

incredibly acrimonious. Incredibly quickly. I imagine the dominant

:11:59.:12:01.

story in the summer will be all about that. This was Anna Soubry's

:12:02.:12:06.

implication, members of the governors could strongly argue,

:12:07.:12:10.

things are so poisonous and so unpleasant at the moment, the

:12:11.:12:13.

dealers are advancing -- members of the government. Why not call it a

:12:14.:12:17.

day and go out on WTO terms while public opinion is still in that

:12:18.:12:21.

direction in that Eurosceptic direction? No buyers' remorse about

:12:22.:12:25.

last year's referendum. The longer they leave it, view more opportunity

:12:26.:12:29.

there is for some kind of public resistance and change of mind to

:12:30.:12:33.

take place. The longer believe it, the more people who voted for Brexit

:12:34.:12:37.

and people who voted Remain and think we didn't get world War three

:12:38.:12:41.

will start being quite angry with the EU for not agreeing a deal. In

:12:42.:12:45.

terms of the rights of EU nationals he and Brits abroad, by all

:12:46.:12:51.

accounts, 26 of the 27 have agreed individually. Angela Merkel is the

:12:52.:12:54.

only person who has held that up. That will be dealt with in a matter

:12:55.:12:58.

of days. The chances of a deal being done is likely but in ten seconds...

:12:59.:13:04.

It would not be a bad bet to protect your on something not happening, you

:13:05.:13:08.

might get pretty good odds? The odds are going up that a deal doesn't

:13:09.:13:12.

happen. But, as I said earlier, the House of Commons will not endorse no

:13:13.:13:17.

deal. We are either in an early election or she has to go back

:13:18.:13:23.

again. Either way, you will need us! We will be back at noon tomorrow on

:13:24.:13:27.

BBC Two ahead of what looks like being a big week in politics. We

:13:28.:13:30.

will be back here same time, same place.

:13:31.:13:33.

Remember, if it's Sunday, it's the Sunday Politics.

:13:34.:14:37.

They're calling it an entertainment extravaganza

:14:38.:14:45.

audience fun and frolics and outrageous shenanigans.

:14:46.:14:49.

And I don't even know what those HONK words mean.

:14:50.:14:53.

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