30/04/2017 Sunday Politics West


30/04/2017

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It's Sunday Morning, and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:36.:00:40.

Theresa May says she has no plans to increase tax levels,

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but refuses to repeat David Cameron's 2015 manifesto

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promise ruling out hikes in VAT, national insurance and income tax.

:00:47.:00:53.

The leaders of the EU's 27 member states unanimously

:00:54.:00:56.

agree their negotiating strategy for the upcoming Brexit talks, but

:00:57.:01:00.

And in the last of our series of interviews ahead of Thursday's

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local elections, I'll be talking to the leader of Plaid Cymru Leanne

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In the West: The new Metro Mayor - I'll be joined by all six candidates

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hoping to become West of England Mayor.

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They hit an all-time low after coalition government,

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but are the Lib Dems poised to bounce back,

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And with me to analyse the week's politics,

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Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards, Tom Newton-Dunn.

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They'll be tweeting using the hashtag #bbcsp.

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So when Theresa May was interviewed just over an hour ago

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on The Andrew Marr Show, the Prime Minister was asked

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to confirm that she would repeat David Cameron's 2015 election

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promise not to raise VAT, national insurance and income tax

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We have absolutely no plans to increase the level of tax,

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but I'm also very clear that I don't want to make specific proposals

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on taxes unless I'm absolutely sure that I can deliver on those.

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But it is, would be my intention as a Conservative Government

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and a Conservative Prime Minister, to reduce the taxes

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The Tories like to have a clear tax message in elections, are they

:02:23.:02:32.

getting into a bit of a mess? That method wasn't clear, but does it

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mean, saying they have no plans to increase the level of tax? We are

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clear there will not be a rise in VAT, a lot of commentators will get

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overexcited about that, but there was no great expectations there

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would be a rise in VAT. Tempting as it is, because even one percentage

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point on VAT rate is 4.5 billion for the exchequer so it is tempting but

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there has been no speculation that would happen. We can see that she

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clearly wants to reiterate the language about hard-working families

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but I don't think we are that much the wiser. Even if she does not put

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up rates, according to projections the overall tax burden, as a

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percentage of GDP, is rising, will rise in the years ahead. That is why

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it was an odd phrase, I know she is doing it to be evasive but to say

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they have no plans to raise the general level of taxation, they do

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have. We also know they have specific plans because it was in the

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last budget, they had a tax rise which they had to revise, National

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Insurance rises, so very wisely in my view they are keeping options

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open, the 2015 tax-and-spend debate was a fantasy world, totally

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unrelated to the demands that would follow. They now have the

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flexibility, one of the arguments you had heard last time was Philip

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Hammond saying to her, we have to break away from the 2015 manifesto

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commitment and we can only do it this way, that is one of the better

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arguments. The Tories like to talk about tax cuts in elections, whether

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they do it is another matter, but they are not being allowed to talk

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about tax cuts, they are now on the defensive over whether they will

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raise taxes. That is not a healthy position for the campaign to be in.

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If you look at the numbers, quite frankly, if you will not do this at

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this election with eight 20 point lead over Labour, then when will you

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take these tough decisions? Reading between the lines of what Theresa

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May has said all over different broadcasters this morning, income

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tax will go down for low-income families, such as the threshold rise

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that microbes that was already factored in. She has had to commit

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to it again. VAT will be fat, national insurance contributions

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will go up. Do you think they will go up? I think so, she had plenty of

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opportunity to rule it out and she didn't. There was a terrible mess

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with the budget, it is a good tax argument but not a good electoral

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argument that you are eroding the base so heavily with people moving

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into self-employment that as you raise national insurance

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contributions for everybody but the self-employed, it is something the

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Treasury will have to look at. The other triple lock on pensions, we

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don't know if they will keep to that either? If they are sensible they

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will find a form of words to give them flexibility in that area as

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well. I would say there is no question over that, that has gone.

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As Mrs May would say, you will have to wait for the manifesto. That is

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what all the party leaders tell me! Labour have spent the weekend

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pushing their messages Speaking at a camapign rally

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in London yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn promised a Labour

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government would fix what he called People are fed up, fed up with not

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being able to get somewhere to live, fed up waiting for hospital

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appointments, fed up with 0-hours contracts, fed up with low pay, fed

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up with debt, fed up with not being able to get on in their lives

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because we have a system that is rigged against so many.

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I've been joined from Newcastle by Labour's elections

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and campaigns co-ordinator, Ian Lavery.

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Good morning. To deal with this rigged economy, as Mr Corbyn calls

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it, the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell has a 20 point plan for

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workers out today. When you add up everything he plans to do to help

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workers, how much will it cost? The full costings, one thing I need to

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say at the very beginning, the costings of any policy which we have

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already ruled out and any policy we will be ruling out in the next few

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days and weeks will be fully costed in the manifesto and in addition to

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the fact that it will be fully costed, we will see it in the

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manifesto how indeed it has been funded, so we are very clear,

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anything we have seen already, and there are some exciting policy

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releases and there will be more in the future, anything we are going to

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do will be fully costed and in the manifesto. You announced a 20 point

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plan but cannot tell me what the costs will be this morning so at the

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moment it is a menu without prices? It is not a menu without prices, it

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is a fantastic opportunity. This 20 point plan is something which will

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transform the lives of millions of millions of people in the

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workplace... But what is the cost? It will be welcomed by many people

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across the UK. The fact the costings have not been released, you will

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have to be patient, it will be released very clearly, it will

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identify that in the manifesto. Let me come down to one of the points,

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the end of the public sector pay freeze. Can you give us any idea how

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much that will cost? The end of the public sector pay freeze, so

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important to the future of the Labour Party, it is an massive

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policy decision. Let me say at this stage, Theresa May, the Prime

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Minister, this morning, on The Andrew Marr Show, did not have the

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common decency, courtesy all respect to condone the fact that nurses, the

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heroes of the NHS, have had a reduction of nearly 14% in their

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wages since 2010 and are using food banks to feed themselves! Does that

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not say everything that is wrong with today's society? So can you

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tell me what it will cost, which is what my question was? What I will

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say is everything the Labour Party pledges, everything that we come out

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with, what we will roll out between now and the 8th of June, will be

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fully costed, people will be very much aware of how much the costings

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will be, where the funding will come from, when the manifesto is

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published. What about doubling paternity leave, nu minimum wage,

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four new bank holidays, any idea what it will

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cost? These are exciting new proposals and of course today cost

:09:30.:09:33.

money but we are the sixth richest economy in the world. It is about

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redistribution of the wealth we create. We are seeing growth in the

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economy, it is how we utilise the finances in the best way we possibly

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can for a fairer society for the many and not the few. You just can't

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tell me how much it will cost? That is why I will repeat again that you

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need to be very patient. Do you know the cost yourself? You are the head

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of the campaign, do you know the cost of these things yourself? I am

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very much aware of how much the costings are likely to be, they have

:10:01.:10:04.

been identified, they will be published in the manifesto. You

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really do understand I would not be releasing today, live on your show,

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any costings or predictions with regards the manifesto. Why not? You

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have released the policy, why not the cost? Because there is a fine

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detail and we will identify it to the general public in the manifesto.

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We not only explain how much it will cost but we will explain where the

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funding comes from. Be patient. Will some of the costs be met by

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increasing taxes? I would think at this point in time there is not any

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indication to increase basic taxes and again the taxes and spending of

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the Labour Government with the proposals of the 20 point plan, the

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issues we have got, housing, the NHS, crime, education will all be

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identified with the costings in the publication. Can you tell us this

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morning, we'll tax for most people rise or not to finance this? We in

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the Labour Party are looking to a fair tax system which will be

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clearly identified in the manifesto. Mr McDonnell also wants to ban all

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0-hours contracts. Would that include those who actually like

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those contracts? There are nearly 1 million, depending on which figured

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you'd use, there are nearly 1 million people on zero-hours

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contract and the vast proportion of those want to be able to live a

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decent life, a secure life, they want to understand whether they will

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be at work the next day, they're included hours... I understand a lot

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of people don't like zero-hours contract and your proposal will

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address that, but there are those, I saw one survey where 65% of people

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on zero-hours contract like the flexibility it gives them. Will you

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force them off zero-hours contract or if they like them will they

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continue with them? We will discuss it with employee is to make sure

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individuals in the workplace have the right to negotiate hours in that

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workplace. Guaranteed hours is very, very important. Zero-hour contracts

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are an instrument in which employers abuse and exploit mainly young

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people, mainly female people in the workplace. We would be banning

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zero-hour contract. But there are those, students for example, who

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like them, would they be forced off zero-hour contracts in your

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proposal? Our proposal would be banning zero-hour contract and

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introducing contracts which have set hours in the workplace. You also say

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no company will be able to bid for a public contract unless the boss

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earns no more than 20 times the lowest paid, or the average wage,

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I'm not quite sure which. What would happen if British Aerospace bids to

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build more joint strike Fighters and the boss is paid more than 20 times?

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I understand the point you raise but we have an obscene situation in this

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country, Andrew, in which the bosses at the very top make an absolute

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fortune... But what would happen then? Who would build joint strike

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Fighters... The difference in wages between the top earners in the

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country and the people in the factories, in the workshops,

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producing the goods, is vast. I understand that is the reason you

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want a ratio. What I am saying is, what happens if the ratio is

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greater? Who gets the contract if not British Aerospace? Who else

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builds the planes? We are going to introduce a wage rate CEO of one to

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20. -- wage ratio. We want to close the gap between the people at the

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very top and people who produce the goods. Let me try one more Time, who

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would build the joint strike fighter? We would look at the issue

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as it came along but the policy is clear... Can you name a single

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defence contractor weather boss' salary is less than 20 times average

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earnings? We are not reducing, we have rolled that out as part of this

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fantastic plan to transform society to get rid of discrimination, to try

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and bring together our communities. We will introduce a pay ratio of one

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to 20. Fair enough, thank you very much.

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It's a month after the triggering of Article 50, and EU leaders -

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with the exception of Britain - met in Brussels this weekend

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to agree their opening negotiating stance, to get the divorce

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It is inside this psychedelic chamber where Britain's 'Grexit'

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future will be decided over the next two years, but there is a vast gulf

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in rhetoric coming from the UK and the EU. With parallel narratives

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emerging for both sides. There is broad agreement that an orderly

:15:30.:15:32.

withdrawal is in the interests of both sides. But Theresa May's

:15:33.:15:37.

position is that the terms of our future trade deal should be

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negotiated alongside the terms of our divorce. Meanwhile the EU says

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the terms of the UK's exit must be decided before any discussion on a

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future trade deal can begin. But don't forget that divorce

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settlement. Don't remind me. In Brussels, many think written should

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pay even more, while in the UK ministers said the divorce bill

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should be capped at 3 billion. After you. Thank you.

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For are you looking forward to it? Isn't that divorce bill a bit high?

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Isn't this about punishing Britain? We are very united, you all seem so

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surprised but it's a fact. How soon can we get a deal? We have to wait

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for the elections. It was the decision of Mrs May. It took over an

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hour for the leaders to make their entrances but once inside it's just

:16:38.:16:40.

a few minutes to agree the negotiating guidelines. They set out

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three main areas. The first phase of talks on the divorce settlement will

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deal with the existing financial commitments to the EU, the Northern

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Ireland border and the rights of EU citizens in the UK. They said a UK

:16:54.:16:57.

trade agreement can be discussed when the first phase of talks

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reaches significant progress. And that there must be unity in the

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negotiations, that individual EU members won't negotiate separately

:17:08.:17:13.

with the UK. They are quite good here at negotiating because they are

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used to it. They set a maximum and then they have to recede a little

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bit depending on what the other side is prepared to offer. I think there

:17:22.:17:27.

is room for manoeuvre in some issues, but I don't think some of

:17:28.:17:31.

the baseline things will change that much. For example I don't think the

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European Union will concede on the rights of citizens who are already

:17:38.:17:41.

in the UK. It will be very difficult for them to accept that they will

:17:42.:17:47.

not be any exit bill, and the question of Northern Ireland is very

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important as well, the hard order question. The baseline things are

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not going to move that much, then you have room for manoeuvring

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between. On security, defence and the fight against terrorism, the

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guidelines said the EU stands ready to work together. And after lunch,

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friendly signs from some EU leaders as they gave individual press

:18:09.:18:13.

conferences. Paul and said the talks should open doors to new

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opportunities and even German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who had

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earlier said some in Britain were deluded about Brexit, softened her

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tone saying there was no conspiracy against the UK. Unity was the

:18:26.:18:30.

buzzword at this summit and for once everybody seemed to be sticking to

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the script. That unity is not only amongst the 27 states, it's also

:18:36.:18:39.

among the institutions so many of the divisions we have seen in the

:18:40.:18:44.

past at European level do not exist. That is very important and it's not

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be unity that is directed somehow against the UK because I think we

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all want this to be an orderly process and part of that is that the

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EU side is unified. So although there are no surprises here, what

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took place in this room was a significant step towards the real

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Brexit negotiations which will begin soon after the general election in

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June, said to be the most complex the UK has faced in our lifetimes.

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Isabel, Steve and Tom are still with me.

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Isabel, doesn't the British media have to be a bit careful here? We

:19:28.:19:35.

would never take at face value anything a British politician tells

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us. We would question it, put it in context and wonder if they are

:19:41.:19:44.

bluffing, but we seem to take at face value anything a European

:19:45.:19:48.

politician says about these negotiations. You only have to look

:19:49.:19:52.

at the front page of the Sunday Times today to see that. They quoted

:19:53.:19:57.

at length Juncker, who didn't like the food at the reception and this

:19:58.:20:01.

and that, and I think the mood is very optimistic. The key thing is

:20:02.:20:06.

the EU trade Commissioner has said we will get a free trade deal and a

:20:07.:20:11.

lot of people seem to be wilfully ignoring that incredibly big

:20:12.:20:14.

concession. That is what will happen in their view. Everything that is

:20:15.:20:20.

said at the moment needs a slight rerun over. They are all in

:20:21.:20:25.

negotiating positions, plus we seem to be completely unaware that they

:20:26.:20:29.

all have their own domestic constituencies as well. Angela

:20:30.:20:35.

Merkel has an important election coming up in September,

:20:36.:20:37.

Euroscepticism is quite different from Britain of course, but there's

:20:38.:20:41.

a different kind of euro scepticism in Germany, she has got to deal with

:20:42.:20:46.

that. Of course she has, which is why you are right, nothing should be

:20:47.:20:50.

taken too seriously out of the mouths of British politicians or

:20:51.:20:56.

European politicians until October this year. We have got to wait for

:20:57.:21:00.

the French elections, then German elections, and if you look through

:21:01.:21:04.

this you can see a way forward. There's no trade talks until pay up,

:21:05.:21:10.

but what was actually written was no trade talks until we make

:21:11.:21:14.

significant progress on the money. You can define significant progress

:21:15.:21:18.

in a lot of ways but come December, fireworks over the summer, we all

:21:19.:21:23.

get very excited about it, in these chairs I'm sure, come December

:21:24.:21:27.

things will look a lot smoother. The German elections are at the end of

:21:28.:21:32.

September but I've seen reports in German press, depending how it goes

:21:33.:21:35.

it could take until Christmas before a new coalition government is put

:21:36.:21:41.

together. The Brussels long-standing negotiating tactic of nothing is

:21:42.:21:44.

agreed until everything is agreed, then I guess the British could say

:21:45.:21:50.

we agree a certain sum of money if that's what it takes but that

:21:51.:21:54.

depends on them, what good trade deal we get. If we don't get that,

:21:55.:22:00.

the sum of money is off the table. In that sense, the two are going

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parallel. However, I wouldn't entirely dismiss what people are

:22:06.:22:09.

saying in their pre-election periods to their own electorates because

:22:10.:22:15.

they have to some extent to deliver subsequently. Of course Angela

:22:16.:22:19.

Merkel is campaigning and electioneering, who wouldn't, she

:22:20.:22:23.

has a tough election to fight, but she is measured and thoughtful and

:22:24.:22:27.

when she says things like some of the British are delusional, that is

:22:28.:22:31.

unusually strong language for her. What was she referring to? I don't

:22:32.:22:38.

know, it wasn't specific. Have the cake and eat it perhaps the

:22:39.:22:42.

sequencing the British don't want. When they thought the British

:22:43.:22:45.

government was going to effectively demand membership of the single

:22:46.:22:49.

market, that's not going to happen now. Unless you sign up to the four

:22:50.:22:56.

pillars, that's the cake and eat it proposition, which they are right in

:22:57.:23:02.

saying Theresa May has made. But everybody has access, even with no

:23:03.:23:07.

deal you have access. The other side of it is I think there will be a

:23:08.:23:16.

united position from them. And so, as somebody pointed out in that

:23:17.:23:22.

report, they are experienced, tough negotiators, so I don't think it

:23:23.:23:30.

will be quite as easy as some think. I spoke to one of those who drew up

:23:31.:23:36.

Article 50 and they said to me they deliberately put this two year

:23:37.:23:39.

timetable in to make it impossible for anybody to think about leaving.

:23:40.:23:46.

This is really tight, this negotiation. Easy, it isn't.

:23:47.:23:49.

This coming Thursday, voters up and down the country

:23:50.:23:51.

will be going to the polls in this year's local elections.

:23:52.:23:54.

Over the past few weeks I've interviewed representatives

:23:55.:23:56.

of the Conservative Party, Labour, the Liberal Democrats,

:23:57.:23:58.

Today it's the turn of Plaid Cymru and the SNP.

:23:59.:24:01.

A little earlier I spoke Alex Salmond, who until 2014

:24:02.:24:04.

I started by asking him why Scots should vote SNP in local elections

:24:05.:24:08.

when the Scottish Government had just cut central Government funding

:24:09.:24:10.

It's actually a funding increase going into Scottish councils this

:24:11.:24:26.

year, and if you look at the funding position for example between

:24:27.:24:30.

Scottish councils and those in England, which are obviously

:24:31.:24:33.

directly related through the Barnett formula, the funding in Scotland has

:24:34.:24:37.

been incomparably better than that in England so there's a whole range

:24:38.:24:48.

of the -- of reasons... What's happening south of the border

:24:49.:24:51.

indicates the protection the Scottish Parliament has been able to

:24:52.:24:55.

put in that helps vital services in Scotland. But there hasn't been a

:24:56.:24:59.

funding increase, the block grant from Westminster to Edinburgh was

:25:00.:25:04.

increased by 1.5% in real terms but the grant to councils was cut by

:25:05.:25:11.

2.6%. It was going to be a cut of 330 million, the Greens got you to

:25:12.:25:16.

reduce it to 170 million but it is still a cut of 2.6%. Your own

:25:17.:25:26.

Aberdeenshire Council has had a cut to 391 million. You have cut the

:25:27.:25:31.

money to councils. Yes, but councils have available to them more

:25:32.:25:34.

resources this year, and as you say the budget increased that further

:25:35.:25:39.

which is why we put forward an excellent local government budget in

:25:40.:25:42.

Aberdeenshire and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3 million off...

:25:43.:25:48.

You asked me about Aberdeenshire, and Aberdeenshire has put forward a

:25:49.:25:53.

budget for investment expansion and resisted a Tory attempts to knock ?3

:25:54.:25:58.

million off the education budget, and I'm very grateful you have given

:25:59.:26:02.

me the opportunity to make that point. The Government in Edinburgh

:26:03.:26:07.

has cut the money to Aberdeenshire by ?11 million. It is a cut. But

:26:08.:26:14.

there is an investment budget in Aberdeenshire that has been made

:26:15.:26:17.

available by the ability to increase the council tax by 2.5% after a

:26:18.:26:23.

nine-year freeze in Scotland, and that has brought more resources into

:26:24.:26:27.

local government and that's why the butchered in Aberdeenshire has been

:26:28.:26:31.

an investment budget including protection of the education budget

:26:32.:26:35.

in the face of a Tory and liberal attempt to cut bit. You have to

:26:36.:26:40.

compare what is happening in Scotland and England, and there's no

:26:41.:26:42.

doubt Scottish local authorities have been much better funded than

:26:43.:26:49.

those in England over the last few years and that's been the ability of

:26:50.:26:51.

the Scottish Government to protect the services at local level. A good

:26:52.:26:57.

reason for voting SNP. If they have been so well funded, why after a

:26:58.:27:03.

decade of SNP rule do one in five Scottish pupils leave primary school

:27:04.:27:11.

functionally illiterate? You have got to take these things... Nicola

:27:12.:27:15.

Sturgeon has made it a top priority to address these challenges but

:27:16.:27:20.

let's take another statistic. 93% of Scottish kids are now emerging from

:27:21.:27:23.

school to positive destinations, that means to further education,

:27:24.:27:31.

apprenticeships or work. Why are one in five functionally illiterate? You

:27:32.:27:37.

argue one statistic, I'm arguing Scottish education is putting in

:27:38.:27:41.

some substantially good performances like the 93% going on to positive

:27:42.:27:46.

destinations. You can't have a failing education system if you have

:27:47.:27:51.

got that 93%, and incidentally a record low youth unemployment in

:27:52.:27:55.

Scotland without the second lowest unemployment rate in Europe. These

:27:56.:28:00.

pupils are being prepared by the Scottish education system. Let's

:28:01.:28:04.

take the figures in the round on education. It's so important. Under

:28:05.:28:09.

your watch, under your government, the Scottish schools in the most

:28:10.:28:14.

important global comparison have fallen from tenth to 19th in

:28:15.:28:25.

science, and 11 to 24th in maths, that is a record of decline and

:28:26.:28:32.

failure. That is by the OECD and first questions about that, but the

:28:33.:28:37.

OECD has also described Scotland is one of the best educated societies

:28:38.:28:42.

in the world. That was from the school system in previous years gone

:28:43.:28:47.

by. For those who are currently in Scottish schools, you have fallen

:28:48.:28:53.

from 11th to 24th in mathematics. The OECD was commenting on

:28:54.:28:56.

introduction of the new curriculum for excellence in which they have

:28:57.:29:00.

given a resounding thumbs up to it, and that's the same source as the

:29:01.:29:05.

rankings which you are comparing. Nicola Sturgeon has said there are

:29:06.:29:09.

challenges on Scottish education, particularly the access through the

:29:10.:29:12.

education system and the attainment gap but don't tell me it's failing

:29:13.:29:17.

when 55% of our pupils have gone on to higher education. That's one of

:29:18.:29:20.

the most impressive figures in the world. Why have you cut 4000

:29:21.:29:27.

teachers? The pupil numbers in Scotland have been falling over

:29:28.:29:31.

recent years as well and now of course we are increasing the number

:29:32.:29:35.

of people going through teachers training so we can make sure that

:29:36.:29:39.

number increases, but listen, the Scottish Government and Scottish

:29:40.:29:44.

Parliament, as you very well know, are subject to real terms spending

:29:45.:29:48.

cuts over the last few years and all public services have been under

:29:49.:29:52.

pressure. The main reason in terms of teacher numbers has been an

:29:53.:29:55.

attempt on the Scottish Government to protect the teacher pupil ratio,

:29:56.:30:00.

and that will now be enhanced by a further taker -- intake. You

:30:01.:30:08.

promised you would reduce primary class sizes to 18 and instead they

:30:09.:30:14.

are now 23.5 and rising. You broke that promise. You didn't mention

:30:15.:30:20.

where we started from. We have kept the teacher pupil ratio very solid

:30:21.:30:24.

in Scotland and that's been against a range of public expenditure cuts

:30:25.:30:28.

but the new intake of teachers into the new teacher training in Scotland

:30:29.:30:30.

I think will enhance the system. You have spent in the pasty in

:30:31.:30:41.

Hollywood 43 hours on Government time debating independence. How many

:30:42.:30:46.

hours have you debated education on Government time? I don't have that

:30:47.:30:51.

they get a hand... The answer is zero, you have spent zero-hours

:30:52.:30:54.

debating education on Government time. Isn't it time the SNP got back

:30:55.:31:00.

to concentrating on the day job? Andrew, as you very well know Nicola

:31:01.:31:05.

Sturgeon has identified a key priority, closing the attainment gap

:31:06.:31:09.

in Scottish education. That is exactly what she has done. Let me

:31:10.:31:14.

answer the question, it is difficult to be in a remote location, if you

:31:15.:31:19.

talk before I answer the question then the view was will not be able

:31:20.:31:25.

to listen. I let you answer that without saying a word. Is this

:31:26.:31:30.

general election about independence, as you say it is, or not about

:31:31.:31:34.

independence, as Mrs Sturgeon says it is? No, I have said exactly the

:31:35.:31:41.

same as Nicola Sturgeon on that. The issue what independence will be

:31:42.:31:44.

decided in a national referendum of the Scottish people. The mandate for

:31:45.:31:49.

that referendum was gained in last year's Scottish elections. What this

:31:50.:31:54.

election is about is backing the right of the Scottish parliament to

:31:55.:31:56.

exercise that mandate and also providing real opposition to this

:31:57.:31:59.

Tory Government and allowing the Scottish Parliament to reverse

:32:00.:32:04.

austerity and some of the public expenditure cutbacks you have been

:32:05.:32:09.

talking about, that is what this is about, backing our Scottish

:32:10.:32:09.

Parliament. Alex Salmond, speaking

:32:10.:32:11.

to me earlier. I'm now joined by the leader

:32:12.:32:13.

of Plaid Cymru, Leanne Wood. You accuse the Government of wanting

:32:14.:32:20.

an extreme Brexit, those are your words. What is the difference

:32:21.:32:25.

between hard Brexit and extreme Brexit? My concern is the way in

:32:26.:32:28.

which we leave the European Union could be very damaging to Wales if,

:32:29.:32:33.

for example, there are tariffs introduced then that would have a

:32:34.:32:37.

real impact in terms of Welsh jobs, and I want to make sure that we have

:32:38.:32:43.

a Brexit that doesn't cause the damage to Wales that could be

:32:44.:32:47.

caused. But what is the difference between extreme and hard? Anything

:32:48.:32:53.

that puts Welsh jobs at risk is either extreme or hard and

:32:54.:32:56.

unacceptable to Plaid Cymru, and we will do what we can to protect those

:32:57.:33:00.

jobs. You want Wales to remain a member of the single market even if

:33:01.:33:05.

the UK isn't, which would mean Wales having to accept the free movement

:33:06.:33:09.

of people, still being under the jurisdiction of the European Court,

:33:10.:33:20.

and you also want to stay in the customs union which means you could

:33:21.:33:23.

not do your own free trade deals. What is the difference between that

:33:24.:33:26.

and being a member of the European Union? We would be like Norway,

:33:27.:33:28.

outside the European Union and inside the single market. The key

:33:29.:33:31.

question is the issue of jobs and the ability to continue to trade.

:33:32.:33:35.

Wales exports, we are the biggest exporter in the whole of the UK, so

:33:36.:33:39.

there are many jobs reliant upon those goods being able to be sold to

:33:40.:33:48.

the single market. Is it central to the UK? Out of the four countries

:33:49.:33:53.

that make up the UK... Proportionally, yes. If you remain

:33:54.:34:01.

in the single market, it is hard to see how Wales could stay in the

:34:02.:34:05.

single market if the UK -- when the rest of the UK was not, you cite

:34:06.:34:09.

Norway, that has free movement, it has to be said, it effectively have

:34:10.:34:14.

to accept the jurisdiction of the European Court, it is not in the

:34:15.:34:19.

customs union so it can do some of its own free trade deals, but the

:34:20.:34:27.

Welsh people voted to leave. We have to accept the principle of free

:34:28.:34:31.

movement if there is not going to be a hard border between the north and

:34:32.:34:35.

south of Ireland. There is going to be free movement within Ireland and

:34:36.:34:39.

therefore freedom of movement, as we said in the referendum campaign,

:34:40.:34:44.

would be very, very difficult to rule out. You lost that campaign, as

:34:45.:34:50.

you know, Wales voted to leave, 17 Council areas voted to leave, only

:34:51.:34:56.

five voted to remain. Doesn't it explain why your party is going

:34:57.:35:00.

nowhere? A majority in Wales voted to leave but you effectively want to

:35:01.:35:07.

support that and de facto remain in the EU? I don't accept that, we

:35:08.:35:11.

accepted the result but Plaid Cymru now is about defending Wales. There

:35:12.:35:16.

are so many risks facing our people from the jobs perspective, the

:35:17.:35:20.

privatisation perspective, the cuts perspective, and from the fact that

:35:21.:35:24.

the Tories would like to grab power was back from our National Assembly,

:35:25.:35:29.

so the key point... If you look at the Wales bill that went through

:35:30.:35:33.

recently, the list of reserved powers there suggests there are some

:35:34.:35:37.

powers currently within the Welsh Assembly jurisdiction that would be

:35:38.:35:43.

dragged back. Which power was will Westminster take back? They could

:35:44.:35:48.

take powers back over the NHS, for example. There is no indication they

:35:49.:35:55.

want to do that. The Tories have attacked the Welsh NHS. That is my

:35:56.:36:04.

point! Quite viciously. If they increase their mandate, I wouldn't

:36:05.:36:08.

put it past them to try to take power was back over the NHS and then

:36:09.:36:12.

of course we risk our NHS being privatised though this election is

:36:13.:36:17.

all about defending Wales, protecting Welsh people from further

:36:18.:36:20.

privatisation and cuts and a power grab from the Tories. Why is there

:36:21.:36:25.

never a breakthrough for your party, Plaid Cymru? Labour dominated in

:36:26.:36:29.

Wales for years, the Tories do quite well, Ukip had a surge for a while,

:36:30.:36:33.

it looks like the Tories will have another surge, never you, always the

:36:34.:36:38.

bridesmaid, never the bride. Wait until Thursday and I think you will

:36:39.:36:42.

see that in many parts of Wales we will increase our representation at

:36:43.:36:46.

a local council level. In the Rhondda, where I am assembly member,

:36:47.:36:52.

we are looking to increase our representation... You are only 13%

:36:53.:37:00.

in the polls will stop which is half of even the Tories in Wales! If you

:37:01.:37:04.

don't breakthrough in the selection, if the real problem is going

:37:05.:37:11.

nowhere, do you think you will pack it in? Robert Green not, I have a

:37:12.:37:16.

job to do, a vision of Wales which is about building up our nation and

:37:17.:37:21.

standing on our own two feet and my job is not done yet. Thank you for

:37:22.:37:24.

being with us as part of your job, we will see how it goes on Thursday.

:37:25.:37:28.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:29.:37:31.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland who leave us now

:37:32.:37:33.

Hello and welcome to a live edition of Sunday Politics

:37:34.:37:47.

We'll be joined by the candidates for West of England Mayor.

:37:48.:37:54.

It's time to vote on Thursday - Portway and Saltford.

:37:55.:38:03.

Our little studio is a bit too snug to fit all six candidates,

:38:04.:38:06.

so we've got three in the first half of the show and three in the second.

:38:07.:38:10.

In alphabetical order, our first trio are the Conservative

:38:11.:38:13.

Tim Bowles, Ukip's Aaron Foot and Darren Hall

:38:14.:38:15.

We'll hear from them in a moment, but first, here's Martin Jones

:38:16.:38:20.

with a brief reminder of what's at stake.

:38:21.:38:28.

In five days' time, we'll have a new mayor.

:38:29.:38:31.

One of the most powerful politicians in the West.

:38:32.:38:34.

With money to spend - almost a billion pounds

:38:35.:38:37.

over the next 30 years, and hints there could be more.

:38:38.:38:43.

The power to say where homes should be built and where they shouldn't.

:38:44.:38:48.

The power to help us get around and ease the gridlock.

:38:49.:38:52.

Powers to influence the skills our people have.

:38:53.:38:55.

Powers to tax business and choose where the money is spent.

:38:56.:39:00.

But it's a controversial post involving working with other

:39:01.:39:03.

councils and convincing the public to take notice.

:39:04.:39:07.

The public make their choice on Thursday.

:39:08.:39:13.

Tim Bowles, if you win, what will be different

:39:14.:39:26.

The important thing about this role is that the government is giving the

:39:27.:39:38.

region the opportunity to make its region the opportunity to make its

:39:39.:39:43.

own decisions. The vital thing after four years is the region recognises

:39:44.:39:50.

someone is accountable and recognisable as the person

:39:51.:39:54.

formulating those ideas with council leaders. Hopefully, the region will

:39:55.:40:00.

recognise the positive move this is. For years to build up the job? Your

:40:01.:40:06.

question was what will be recognisable after four years. You

:40:07.:40:13.

will have somebody who is accountable and recognisable. We

:40:14.:40:19.

will have that from day one. But after four years? We will have made

:40:20.:40:24.

progress in providing a strategy that people will see, improving

:40:25.:40:28.

transport, tackling housing issues and in doing that we will develop

:40:29.:40:33.

alongside -- long-term strategy this deal is about. So your focus will be

:40:34.:40:38.

building up the job, being recognised and working on a

:40:39.:40:42.

strategy? It will be formulated with the leaders and other partners. One

:40:43.:40:51.

thing that will get done? We will start addressing pinch points in

:40:52.:40:56.

terms of transport. We can start that immediately. Longer term

:40:57.:41:01.

planning on new Road junctions and other transport infrastructure takes

:41:02.:41:05.

time so it's a case of showing how we can make immediate differences,

:41:06.:41:10.

getting new homes built, improving transport and taking the message to

:41:11.:41:13.

employers about the wealth of talent we have four skills.

:41:14.:41:25.

And the same question for you? I want to find out where people want

:41:26.:41:35.

their taxes spent. We have gridlock in Bath and Bristol that has to be

:41:36.:41:39.

solved and we can only solve it by working as a team with residents. If

:41:40.:41:44.

you win you will be in charge. They will come to you and say, what do we

:41:45.:41:52.

do? And you say, I'd better go and ask someone? No, as residents they

:41:53.:41:56.

know which areas are the pinch points and the reason behind it. How

:41:57.:42:02.

would you collect the information? It would be open source and software

:42:03.:42:08.

that would be freed to use. It will have to be built. But software is

:42:09.:42:12.

will build stuff specifically for will build stuff specifically for

:42:13.:42:17.

the West of England. So, you will have lots of liver --

:42:18.:42:26.

Little referenda done on computers? Asking where pinch ports are? Yes,

:42:27.:42:31.

people will be able to complain and make comments in easy through

:42:32.:42:37.

technology. At the moment they can e-mail you. More people will see

:42:38.:42:41.

these complaints and there will be a build-up before we can utilise them

:42:42.:42:48.

and do them quicker. It's about eradicating... What if you haven't

:42:49.:42:52.

got a computer? People can still write letters. It is not like we

:42:53.:42:58.

will say we now have e-democracy and that's it. Would you hold a

:42:59.:43:05.

referendum? It's not about having a vote every day. A virtual

:43:06.:43:10.

referendum? We will ask people what they think... Online? Yes. And you

:43:11.:43:25.

will take notice on that -- of that? Definitely. That's democracy. Darren

:43:26.:43:34.

Hall, what will change in four years? I have two principles I like

:43:35.:43:42.

to look at everything through. Those are, in a more equal society

:43:43.:43:46.

everyone does better. Secondly, we need to do a better job of balancing

:43:47.:43:53.

people, planet and profit. For example, we know the current digs

:43:54.:44:00.

system for housing is broken. Profit motives mainly not approving --

:44:01.:44:05.

getting profitable housing for people who need them. If you take

:44:06.:44:11.

the profit motivation out, how would you get the build? I am on the board

:44:12.:44:16.

of the Bristol Community land trust and we operate to build housing for

:44:17.:44:22.

people who needed. We build communities. How is it financed?

:44:23.:44:28.

Combination of the landowner and the City Council is offering land up to

:44:29.:44:33.

build houses. So you'd had to ask a landowner for land. Other likely to

:44:34.:44:42.

do that? The council has a process. I mean private landowners? We need

:44:43.:44:49.

to start with public sector land because we know there is pressure

:44:50.:44:53.

and that the public sector needs to build. And for the developer, what

:44:54.:44:59.

you do? Do you say build an estate but I don't want you to make profit?

:45:00.:45:06.

I think we can offer a presumption in favour of planning for those

:45:07.:45:09.

developers prepared to offer more affordable housing and more

:45:10.:45:15.

sustainable housing. But they will do it for a profit, won't they? This

:45:16.:45:21.

is why they sit on land because they want land prices to go up and all

:45:22.:45:27.

the rest of it. Unless they change systems completely and are prepared

:45:28.:45:30.

to do you a favour, how can you deliver on the housing promise?

:45:31.:45:36.

Rumack is about understanding that if we balanced people, planet and

:45:37.:45:40.

profit more effectively everyone benefits, including businesses.

:45:41.:45:45.

I want to ask about what you can do to deliver these and what

:45:46.:45:53.

experiences you've got. Tagged as why... Angie can look down the

:45:54.:45:59.

camera, sake of voters, choose me. The important thing is understanding

:46:00.:46:04.

what the job is about. Like any interview, you have two show your

:46:05.:46:11.

understanding what a job is about. Is he the sensible choice? I think

:46:12.:46:15.

Tim has got good local government choice but this job is about looking

:46:16.:46:21.

beyond South Gloucestershire. Do you think he's got the experience? I

:46:22.:46:26.

would explain about myself. The job is about working with today's

:46:27.:46:32.

council leaders. Somebody has to have an understanding as to how

:46:33.:46:37.

councils work and the only person who has that experience is me. It

:46:38.:46:44.

then involves working with business in terms of developing long-term

:46:45.:46:49.

economy, jobs and skills. I have a long and proven track record in

:46:50.:46:56.

business. What project have you delivered? I deliver ?2 million

:46:57.:47:04.

accounts in very loud exhibition and promotion events. OK, Aaron, a good

:47:05.:47:12.

solid job as a farmer. What experience have you got to drive

:47:13.:47:19.

forward ?1 billion budget? This role is about facilitating and listening

:47:20.:47:21.

and communicating with other leaders. As a farmer, and I've done

:47:22.:47:30.

this throughout my career, is about listening and reading. Now we have

:47:31.:47:34.

two produce something that we can actually tackle. Transport. What

:47:35.:47:41.

would you do? What have you done in the past that suggests you can do

:47:42.:47:47.

it? I run my own business. I will give up my business if I get the job

:47:48.:47:53.

and concentrate on this 110%. It's about listening to the people.

:47:54.:47:59.

Darren, what have you done? I lucky to have had a broad range of

:48:00.:48:05.

experience. I started out my career as a Royal Air Force engineering

:48:06.:48:08.

officer will stop my last role was with British -- Bristol City Council

:48:09.:48:15.

and I was proud to be on the team to get us British green city. And then

:48:16.:48:22.

I worked in crime and drugs prevention.

:48:23.:48:24.

I'm afraid our first trio are out of time.

:48:25.:48:25.

My thanks to Tim Bowles, Aaron Foot and Darren Hall.

:48:26.:48:28.

We'll meet the other candidates in a moment.

:48:29.:48:32.

Whoever becomes the West of England mayor will have the power

:48:33.:48:35.

and the money to turn big ideas into reality.

:48:36.:48:36.

But what big projects do the voters want to see?

:48:37.:48:39.

And can they provide any inspiration for the winner?

:48:40.:48:44.

We sent Pete Simson to do some blue sky thinking.

:48:45.:48:53.

Ours is a region renowned for transport innovation.

:48:54.:48:58.

From Brunel's railway to the trams in Bristol and Bath,

:48:59.:49:00.

These days, however, our reputation is for congestion.

:49:01.:49:10.

Shortly, we'll have a mayor with the power to ease

:49:11.:49:12.

the gridlock, but maybe he or she needs some suggestions.

:49:13.:49:18.

I think we should have some sort of system like they've got

:49:19.:49:24.

in New York where you'd jump on, pay a fee, jump off.

:49:25.:49:27.

Occasionally I'll get on the bus, but most of the time if we

:49:28.:49:32.

had to go anywhere special I get a taxi.

:49:33.:49:37.

If, like London, we had a subway I think that would be easier

:49:38.:49:44.

I appreciate that there is no easy solution to traffic

:49:45.:49:54.

congestion, but if we need to get more traffic off our roads, why

:49:55.:49:58.

can't we invest in an underground Metro system?

:49:59.:50:04.

After all, London's got one, as has Newcastle, so why not?

:50:05.:50:08.

Almost anything is possible if you throw enough money

:50:09.:50:17.

The challenges in Bristol and Bath are not insurmountable,

:50:18.:50:22.

Having said that, there are areas around the world where

:50:23.:50:27.

underground systems, tunnels, have been constructed beneath the sea,

:50:28.:50:33.

beneath rivers and in difficult ground conditions and even

:50:34.:50:35.

So if you throw enough money at a problem, it can

:50:36.:50:41.

generally overcome engineering problems.

:50:42.:50:44.

Bristol is spending over ?200 million on a new metrobus.

:50:45.:50:47.

The current system is rather like an overground/

:50:48.:50:53.

There are interchanges instead of tube stations so one

:50:54.:51:01.

hopes that it will solve Bristol's traffic problems.

:51:02.:51:05.

Not all of our big ideas get off the ground.

:51:06.:51:07.

Next to Temple Meads - the locals call this

:51:08.:51:10.

Connecting bits of scrubland because the Arena's not yet built.

:51:11.:51:18.

Whatever our new mayor decides they will or won't do,

:51:19.:51:20.

It cost ?11 million and no-one's ever set foot on it.

:51:21.:51:31.

I'm joined by Labour's Lesley Mansell, the Independent John Savage

:51:32.:51:34.

and Stephen Williams for the Liberal Democrats.

:51:35.:51:40.

Lesley Mansell, give us a big idea that you'd want to see happen

:51:41.:51:44.

built. There is a real issue and built. There is a real issue and

:51:45.:51:59.

it's the biggest issue or one of them for people in the region. There

:52:00.:52:05.

are already plans in place. The Labour mayor for Bristol and imposed

:52:06.:52:10.

for less than a year is already building council housing. But there

:52:11.:52:15.

needs to be mixed development. We have property is being built for

:52:16.:52:20.

profit but then they subsidise council housing. From the

:52:21.:52:25.

Conservatives is actually stopping those being built. Do you think

:52:26.:52:32.

developers would build houses and then reduced council houses? Not

:52:33.:52:36.

free but it's about having the budget to do that and the Metro air

:52:37.:52:40.

will have more money. Will you give it to the developer? In Bristol,

:52:41.:52:52.

there are some houses for profit and they subsidise council houses. We

:52:53.:52:57.

have 80,000 jobs being proposed across the West of England and

:52:58.:53:01.

people need somewhere to live. We need fair rents as well. John

:53:02.:53:08.

Savage, what would you do? Move very quickly to get a coalition about

:53:09.:53:12.

where we're going and move faster. No matter how much it upsets people,

:53:13.:53:18.

the local authorities in ability to work together has held us back for

:53:19.:53:23.

too long. So we will move quickly to try to get a better view and we will

:53:24.:53:28.

look a bit further ahead so that by 2050 we think we need 300,000

:53:29.:53:33.

houses. We can move quickly also to do something about traffic. To pick

:53:34.:53:39.

up one housing, where will it go and how will you pay for them? They will

:53:40.:53:45.

go hopefully initially on Brownfield land but we will have to take some

:53:46.:53:49.

grass, that's for certain. If you look at the requirement for housing

:53:50.:53:55.

and infrastructure it is perfectly possible to do deals with developers

:53:56.:53:58.

and shareholders to build a product that gives profit, which is OK, and

:53:59.:54:04.

a product that is satisfactory to people. I do think they would accept

:54:05.:54:10.

that deal, making less profit because we just need you to do it?

:54:11.:54:15.

It's about understanding what needs to be done and reasonable profit.

:54:16.:54:20.

The place would collapse completely of said nobody can make a profit.

:54:21.:54:26.

Developers know they have to change their approach and they are looking

:54:27.:54:33.

for leadership. Have you a pledge from a developer? Certainly one. Can

:54:34.:54:40.

you name them? No. This is why struggling in the public sector for

:54:41.:54:46.

services because people are not... You will not have any power on that.

:54:47.:54:51.

No, but I would be prepared to lobby the government on that. Stephen

:54:52.:54:57.

Willis. You had to ground yourself in political reality rather than

:54:58.:55:02.

fantasy politics. The first thing people will notice that the end of a

:55:03.:55:06.

four-year term if I am the Metro Mayor is that there will be a

:55:07.:55:10.

transport revolution. We will have seamless, cashless payments on buses

:55:11.:55:18.

to speed it up and we will improve the quality in Bristol and Bath. For

:55:19.:55:23.

new railway stations will have been opened and I have discussed that

:55:24.:55:27.

with Network Rail. Is funding sorted out? And now we will have a

:55:28.:55:36.

contactless card, or what? People can use their own debit card and you

:55:37.:55:44.

can do that with a drink. And you can fix that, can you? Absolutely.

:55:45.:55:51.

The regional mayor will have us franchising powers and I have made

:55:52.:55:54.

it clear that it would be the expectation. Transport is the area

:55:55.:55:59.

where I would to be judged on in four years.

:56:00.:56:01.

Lesley Mansell, you've suggested putting the M32 underground.

:56:02.:56:10.

Is that right? Congestion is costing ?350 million a year. If people are

:56:11.:56:22.

going to get across the West of England to deliver services and

:56:23.:56:26.

industry we need, we have to be able to move around. We need to do

:56:27.:56:32.

different thinking. It may be about getting people out of cars and onto

:56:33.:56:38.

buses. We need to improve public transport and the infrastructure

:56:39.:56:42.

which includes the potholes. We have started to look at different ideas

:56:43.:56:47.

like putting the M32 Underground. How would it help congestion? If I

:56:48.:56:57.

could finish. We start to look at something different. There is a

:56:58.:57:03.

four-year term to start doing that. But how would putting it Underground

:57:04.:57:08.

to help ease congestion? It would also provide jobs for the

:57:09.:57:13.

construction industry. Construction engineers can do amazing

:57:14.:57:18.

constructions now. Nobody said the Channel Tunnel would happen but it

:57:19.:57:22.

has. Do you think it is realistic with perhaps a tube? It's something

:57:23.:57:27.

to look at. Long-term it's something we could look at. We need different

:57:28.:57:35.

thinking. John Savage, do you accept she is onto something? No, I don't.

:57:36.:57:45.

The business of nearly a business -- nearly ?1 billion is a fabrication.

:57:46.:57:49.

The existing budget is already being spent anyway so we have to be

:57:50.:57:54.

realistic. This is a small crumb being handed down that we had to

:57:55.:58:01.

make work. Isn't that a counsel of despair? You have to be realistic.

:58:02.:58:08.

Are you saying Leslie isn't being realistic? Building an underground

:58:09.:58:12.

railway system against the odds of the geography and that in the M32

:58:13.:58:19.

Underground, how does that is the transport problem? Wouldn't it be

:58:20.:58:22.

marvellous if we had a tube system going to the airport taking

:58:23.:58:27.

transport of the road? If I want to get to the airport I can either

:58:28.:58:33.

travel across the valley will get the bus. It is not realistic. Tubes

:58:34.:58:41.

and tunnels and all the rest of it is big trouble but you're talking

:58:42.:58:46.

about a system with a card and contactless. Is that inspirational?

:58:47.:58:50.

There's a difference between talking began talking nonsense. The only

:58:51.:58:55.

hole Leslie has died is for herself and the Labour Party in this

:58:56.:58:59.

campaign. You had to deliver credible things and getting buses

:59:00.:59:03.

moving faster with cashless payments and dealing with fuel emissions, and

:59:04.:59:14.

getting people off the road and onto public transport is what people are

:59:15.:59:19.

looking for. What would you do to get people out of their cars? And is

:59:20.:59:25.

that necessary? It is necessarily because a quality is really bad. How

:59:26.:59:34.

do you do it? You have alternatives and you... We worked on it in the

:59:35.:59:40.

chamber years ago. People will accept it but nobody would get out

:59:41.:59:45.

of their cars if there isn't something that works as an

:59:46.:59:49.

alternative. What will be the stick to say, you are not driving your car

:59:50.:59:56.

's? Again, we have to improve public transport. What is the stick? And we

:59:57.:00:04.

need to look at flexible working to allow people to work some days of

:00:05.:00:13.

the week. And the stick? During the week, it's much more difficult. We

:00:14.:00:19.

need to start offering alternatives. It is all right Stephen Williams

:00:20.:00:24.

shaking his head saying is fantasy but what did he do as a government

:00:25.:00:30.

minister. He was behind cuts... We had to leave it.

:00:31.:00:33.

we will take the mandate that we want. To all three of you, thank

:00:34.:00:40.

you. Andrew, back to you. So, how will Thursday's local

:00:41.:00:52.

election results affect Who's winning the

:00:53.:00:54.

election ground war? And as he celebrates 100

:00:55.:00:57.

days in the White House, We have the local elections, Metro

:00:58.:01:14.

elections in Liverpool, greater Birmingham, West Midlands, how will

:01:15.:01:19.

they play into the general election? Significantly, it is very unusual.

:01:20.:01:22.

People keep comparing this with the election in 83, not! Margaret

:01:23.:01:27.

Thatcher was nervous and to wait until after the local elections to

:01:28.:01:31.

call the election to see the result. We are getting these result in the

:01:32.:01:35.

middle of an election campaign so it will be important, whoever does

:01:36.:01:41.

badly will suffer a dent in confidence in terms of how they

:01:42.:01:44.

approach the election and we are also going to have mayoral figures

:01:45.:01:49.

as a reminder of another big difference with the 80s that however

:01:50.:01:54.

big, say, the Conservatives win in Westminster, there are now sectors

:01:55.:01:58.

of power in other parts of the United Kingdom which were not there

:01:59.:02:01.

in the 80s. One of the reasons niches that are rated in 83 was

:02:02.:02:06.

memories were still alive in political circles of 1970, Wilson

:02:07.:02:11.

saw the local election results and thought, I can win, he was told he

:02:12.:02:16.

would win by the Economist magazine, who had done the analysis, and of

:02:17.:02:20.

course he lost, so that is why she waited, Mrs May does not need to

:02:21.:02:28.

wait for that at all now, and on the Metro elections, the one she will be

:02:29.:02:31.

looking at is the West Midlands, that is the one that is a

:02:32.:02:35.

competition. I think she can really lose on Thursday in the local

:02:36.:02:38.

elections, governing parties are supposed to take effect again,

:02:39.:02:43.

losing lots of council seats. She is projected to put on 100 or so seats,

:02:44.:02:49.

Labour projected to lose around 200, the first time the main opposition

:02:50.:02:53.

party has shed seats since something like 83 so clearly the local

:02:54.:02:56.

elections give Mrs May great momentum going into the general

:02:57.:03:00.

election campaign but there is a downside in that, which is what we

:03:01.:03:03.

have already heard fighting about this morning, if it looks like it is

:03:04.:03:09.

going too well for the Tories, it says to voters, why bother turning

:03:10.:03:13.

up? Sushi comes up with totally unbelievable sound bites this

:03:14.:03:16.

morning that this is the most important general election in her

:03:17.:03:22.

lifetime. Really?! For her it is! It always is until the next one! I

:03:23.:03:29.

wonder if voter turnout is a problem? Tory voters are more likely

:03:30.:03:34.

to vote than Labour voters. If there is a sense that it is all over bar

:03:35.:03:39.

the shouting, the overall turnout will be low that Tory voters are

:03:40.:03:43.

still likely to turn out more than Labour voters so she would still win

:03:44.:03:48.

some. I don't think she needs to be too worried, I think there will be a

:03:49.:03:52.

significantly low turnout, even I am finding it hard to be that excited

:03:53.:03:59.

about this general election. Really, the policies, we have spent a lot of

:04:00.:04:03.

time talking about them today and we have to examine them, but all this

:04:04.:04:08.

is about is, do you want Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn in Number Ten?

:04:09.:04:12.

Those are the only question is, apart from possibly how strong do

:04:13.:04:15.

you feel about Brexit, that will be on the voters' minds. You may say

:04:16.:04:21.

that but I will not be put off from going through a list of policies

:04:22.:04:25.

that we have already had in the last 24 hours. On the Conservatives, more

:04:26.:04:32.

powers to stop company bosses under pensions, of course Philip Green was

:04:33.:04:39.

in mind there. Labour has come up with quite a few policies, actually,

:04:40.:04:44.

give all work of equal rights, whether part-time or full-time,

:04:45.:04:53.

temporary or permanent. Ukip, scrap VAT or takeaway -- on takeaway food

:04:54.:04:58.

and end the BBC licence fee. The Liberal Democrats have come out

:04:59.:05:04.

posed to the runway at Heathrow. I thought I knew that already? Will

:05:05.:05:11.

any of these policies make a difference? They are all nice handy

:05:12.:05:17.

things that people quite liked but probably not, is the answer. They

:05:18.:05:21.

are an awful way away from polling day now for people to remember and

:05:22.:05:25.

latch onto. I don't think you make your mind up on small issues like

:05:26.:05:31.

Heathrow, unless you live in Richmond-upon-Thames, maybe, but the

:05:32.:05:34.

problem Labour have got with unfailing a lot of these retail type

:05:35.:05:38.

policies which, in themselves, are very popular, is no one will listen

:05:39.:05:43.

to them until they get over the leadership credibility issue. Jeremy

:05:44.:05:47.

Corbyn could the world on a stick, but if no one believes he can

:05:48.:05:50.

deliver it then he will not be listened to and he has not done much

:05:51.:05:53.

apart from a speech yesterday in which is claim to fame was getting

:05:54.:05:57.

arrested, I don't see how that would work for him getting to Number Ten.

:05:58.:06:03.

They are not making progress on it. Labour has rolled out a number of

:06:04.:06:09.

policies which, taken individually, would have certain traction in

:06:10.:06:14.

normal times, quite interesting ideas, this sense of unfairness, a

:06:15.:06:17.

feeling that ordinary workers have not done well out of the recovery,

:06:18.:06:23.

those who caused the crash have, 20 points, I went through some of them

:06:24.:06:26.

earlier, putting aside they are not costed, we are assured they will be.

:06:27.:06:31.

The problem I suggest is not the costing but the cut through? Every

:06:32.:06:37.

election has a context which is determined by opinion polls, however

:06:38.:06:41.

sceptical we are these days, and if one party is way ahead it is

:06:42.:06:44.

difficult for the other party to appear relevant, because if people

:06:45.:06:50.

assume they are not going to win, even some of its own MPs are saying,

:06:51.:06:54.

we are not going to win this, so you can vote for us, it is very hard to

:06:55.:07:01.

get attention and relevance. Where I think all the parties are bad with

:07:02.:07:05.

their current leaders is framing arguments, so those policies you

:07:06.:07:11.

have highlighted makes sense. The best leaders are brilliant framers

:07:12.:07:15.

of an argument and neither Theresa Maynor Jeremy Corbyn R. They have

:07:16.:07:21.

been campaigning, their manifestos are not out yet, both sides have

:07:22.:07:25.

been telling us we have to wait for costings, but it has not stopped

:07:26.:07:29.

them campaigning. Let's remind you of where they have been and what

:07:30.:07:34.

they have been doing so far. Let's start with Jeremy Corbyn, his

:07:35.:07:39.

first official visit was in the ultra-marginal Conservative seat of

:07:40.:07:43.

Croydon Central where the MP Gavin Barwell has a lead of just 165. That

:07:44.:07:48.

is not the only Conservative seat he has visited, along the way he popped

:07:49.:07:52.

in on Bristol North West, a Conservative majority of nearly

:07:53.:07:59.

5000. The Tory seat of Cardiff North, a lead of just over 2000,

:08:00.:08:06.

Warrington South, just over 2700, and Crewe and Nantwich, Tory

:08:07.:08:11.

majority of three and a half thousand. Yesterday he visited

:08:12.:08:17.

Bethnal greed and Bob, a Labour lead of 20 4000. Theresa May kicked off

:08:18.:08:22.

her campaign in Bolton, Labour majority of over 4000. On her way

:08:23.:08:27.

round the UK she had a comfy stop in her own maidenhead seat, where she

:08:28.:08:31.

is defending a majority of nearly 30,000, before travelling to other

:08:32.:08:35.

Labour marginals including Dudley North, a Labour lead of 4000.

:08:36.:08:42.

Bridgend, a lead of just under 2004 Labour, before becoming ambitious

:08:43.:08:43.

and visiting shadow minister Richard Bergen's Leeds East seat, which he

:08:44.:09:00.

won by over 12,500 votes. Yesterday she went north of the border to

:09:01.:09:02.

Aberdeenshire, where amongst other places she visited the SNP seat of

:09:03.:09:04.

West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine, where the Tories would have to gain

:09:05.:09:05.

over 7000 votes to unseat the NP. What do you make of it all so far?

:09:06.:09:13.

It is remarkable she is doing these visits in Scotland. Past but even

:09:14.:09:17.

five years and the idea of a Tory Prime Minister going round Scotland

:09:18.:09:20.

would be utterly counter-productive, and actually they are ambitious for

:09:21.:09:25.

Scotland now under with Davidson, a prospect of multiple seats, and that

:09:26.:09:29.

would be a real genuine shift in Scottish politics, the likes of

:09:30.:09:32.

which we have not seen for 15 or 20 years. If she gets that, that helps

:09:33.:09:42.

towards 100 seats, because if she wins ten in Scotland, it is

:09:43.:09:47.

effectively 20, the SNP lose ten, she gains ten, she wants to do that

:09:48.:09:51.

in the Midlands with Labour, and the North. To get the 100 majority,

:09:52.:09:57.

other than Scotland, she has to win Labour seats, that is all that is

:09:58.:10:02.

there. And clearly she has been told, it is obvious, that she has a

:10:03.:10:06.

chance of doing so, otherwise you don't go to these parts of the

:10:07.:10:09.

country in the first few days of the campaign. All logic points to her

:10:10.:10:14.

being able to pull it off as well. The opinion polls, the state of the

:10:15.:10:19.

Labour Party. The only qualification I have in this is that politics is

:10:20.:10:23.

so wild and free Braille at the moment, it doesn't feel like

:10:24.:10:30.

landslide to rain. That is true, it doesn't. It is early days, we

:10:31.:10:36.

haven't yet had the manifestos, the campaign is yet to gather momentum.

:10:37.:10:40.

It doesn't feel like landslide territory. I disagree, look at every

:10:41.:10:48.

single poll, the Tory lead is 10% in Wales, you can see her picking up 20

:10:49.:10:53.

seat there. Put this together, I am told by the way she is going into

:10:54.:10:57.

traditional Labour heartland again tomorrow, the key is the Ukip vote.

:10:58.:11:03.

That will implode... Crumble towards Tories? If she can hoover that up

:11:04.:11:22.

and retain the Tory vote, she will have a majority of 150.

:11:23.:11:23.

I cannot let you go without reminding you that it is Donald

:11:24.:11:23.

Trump's 100 days. He's not making a lot of it now, this is what he said

:11:24.:11:24.

last night. We are just beginning in our fight

:11:25.:11:26.

to make America great again. Now, before we talk about my first

:11:27.:11:29.

100 days, which has been very exciting and very productive,

:11:30.:11:38.

let's rate the media's 100 days. Because, as you know,

:11:39.:11:43.

they are a disgrace. There you go, still bashing the

:11:44.:12:03.

media, that was at a rally in Virginia, the 100 days was last

:12:04.:12:08.

night. He seems happier campaigning than running the country. You each

:12:09.:12:12.

have 20 seconds to give me your board on the first 100 days.

:12:13.:12:20.

Remarkable, he will not stop slagging off the media but America

:12:21.:12:25.

first has not meant America first in terms of national policy, he has

:12:26.:12:28.

reneges on what he said about Nato being obsolete. He is moving from

:12:29.:12:33.

the old right to the centre because that is where you get things done,

:12:34.:12:41.

he is a pragmatist, also is about's friend Nigel Parrott is no longer

:12:42.:12:47.

welcome, we read this morning! Allegedly! He loves campaigning but

:12:48.:12:52.

finds governing much more difficult. Who would have thought being

:12:53.:12:56.

president of the United States was a difficult job?! He loves rallies but

:12:57.:13:00.

being president and politics is a very difficult thing indeed. Thank

:13:01.:13:06.

you, there we go, Mr Trump's 100 days, we will see what the next 100

:13:07.:13:07.

brings. The Daily Politics is back

:13:08.:13:10.

on BBC Two after the bank holiday on Tuesday at midday,

:13:11.:13:13.

with all the latest And I'll be back here

:13:14.:13:15.

on BBC One next Sunday Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:16.:13:18.

it's the Sunday Politics. The East End girl who became the

:13:19.:14:25.

nation's favourite. We don't know what it is,

:14:26.:14:27.

but she definitely has... Something. From stage to screen

:14:28.:14:32.

and into our hearts. Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha!

:14:33.:14:37.

Ooh, in't she wonderful? If you're not careful, you'll end up

:14:38.:14:45.

playing this sexy little blonde

:14:46.:14:49.

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