07/05/2017 Sunday Politics West


07/05/2017

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by Labour's shadow justice secretary Richard Burgon and Ukip's Neil Hamilton to discuss the local election results.


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Transcript


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:39.:00:41.

The local election results made grim reading for Labour.

:00:42.:00:44.

With just a month to go until the general election,

:00:45.:00:49.

will promising to rule out tax rises for all but the well off help

:00:50.:00:52.

The Conservatives have their own announcement on mental health,

:00:53.:00:57.

as they strain every sinew to insist they don't think they've got

:00:58.:01:00.

But is there still really all to play for?

:01:01.:01:07.

And tonight we will find out who is the next

:01:08.:01:11.

President of France - Emmanuel Macron or Marine Le Pen -

:01:12.:01:15.

of England's first ever Metro mayor. ended with a hack attack

:01:16.:01:25.

What can we expect from the new man in the new role?

:01:26.:01:28.

elections but we are looking at the potential impact in marginals next

:01:29.:01:32.

month. If Ukip support continues to evaporate...

:01:33.:01:39.

And joining me for all of that, three journalists ready

:01:40.:01:42.

to analyse the week's politics with all the forensic

:01:43.:01:45.

focus of Diane Abbott preparing for an interview,

:01:46.:01:48.

and all the relaxed, slogan-free banter of Theresa May

:01:49.:01:51.

It's Janan Ganesh, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards.

:01:52.:01:57.

So, the Conservatives are promising, if re-elected, to change mental

:01:58.:02:03.

health laws in England and Wales to tackle discrimination,

:02:04.:02:06.

and they're promising 10,000 more staff working in NHS mental health

:02:07.:02:12.

treatment in England by 2020 - although how that's to be

:02:13.:02:15.

Here's Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt speaking

:02:16.:02:18.

There is a lot of new money going into it.

:02:19.:02:25.

In January, we said we were going to put an extra ?1 billion

:02:26.:02:29.

Does this come from other parts of the NHS, or is it

:02:30.:02:32.

No, it is new money going into the NHS

:02:33.:02:36.

It's not just of course money, it's having the people

:02:37.:02:43.

who deliver these jobs, which is why we need

:02:44.:02:45.

Well, we're joined now from Norwich by the Liberal Democrat health

:02:46.:02:50.

This weekend, they've launched their own health announcement,

:02:51.:02:53.

promising a 1% rise on every income tax band to fund the NHS.

:02:54.:03:02.

Do you welcome the Conservatives putting mental health onto the

:03:03.:03:07.

campaign agenda in the way that they have? I welcome it being on the

:03:08.:03:12.

campaign agenda but I do fear that the announcement is built on thin

:03:13.:03:16.

air. You raised the issue at the start about the 10,000 extra staff,

:03:17.:03:21.

and questions surrounding how it would be paid for. There is no

:03:22.:03:26.

additional money on what they have already announced for the NHS. We

:03:27.:03:33.

know it falls massively short on the expectation of the funding gap

:03:34.:03:37.

which, by 2020, is likely to be about 30 billion. That is not

:03:38.:03:41.

disputed now. Anyone outside of the government, wherever you are on the

:03:42.:03:44.

political spectrum, knows the money going in is simply not enough. So,

:03:45.:03:53.

rather like the claim that they would add 5000 GPs to the workforce

:03:54.:03:59.

by 2020, that is not on target. Latest figures show a fall in the

:04:00.:04:04.

number of GPs. They make these claims, but I'm afraid they are

:04:05.:04:07.

without substance, unless they are prepared to put money behind it.

:04:08.:04:12.

Your party's solution to the money problem is to put a 1% percentage

:04:13.:04:22.

point on all of the bands of income tax to raise more money 20-45. Is

:04:23.:04:28.

that unfair? Most pensioners who consume 40% of NHS spending, but

:04:29.:04:36.

over 65s only pay about 20% of income tax. Are you penalising the

:04:37.:04:39.

younger generations for the health care of an older generation? It is

:04:40.:04:45.

the first step in what we are describing as a 5-point recovery

:04:46.:04:50.

plan for the NHS and care system. So, for what is available to us now,

:04:51.:04:56.

it seems to be the fairest way of bringing in extra resources, income

:04:57.:05:00.

tax is progressive, and is based on your ability to pay for your average

:05:01.:05:05.

British worker. It would be ?3 per week which is the cost of less than

:05:06.:05:10.

two cups of coffee per week. In the longer run, we say that by the end

:05:11.:05:15.

of the next Parliament, we would be able to introduce a dedicated NHS

:05:16.:05:22.

and care tax. Based, probably, around a reformed national insurance

:05:23.:05:26.

system, so it becomes a dedicated NHS and care tax. Interestingly, the

:05:27.:05:31.

former permanent secretary of the Treasury, Nick MacPherson, said

:05:32.:05:36.

clearly that this idea merits further consideration which is the

:05:37.:05:39.

first time anyone for the Treasury has bought into the idea of this.

:05:40.:05:46.

Let me ask you this. You say it is a small amount of tax that people on

:05:47.:05:49.

average incomes will have to pay extra. We are talking about people

:05:50.:05:54.

who have seen no real increases to their income since 2007. They have

:05:55.:06:01.

been struggling to stand still in terms of their own pay, but you are

:06:02.:06:05.

going to add to their tax, and as I said earlier, most of the health

:06:06.:06:09.

care money will then go to pensioners whose incomes have risen

:06:10.:06:16.

by 15%. I'm interested in the fairness of this redistribution?

:06:17.:06:20.

Bearing in mind first of all, Andrew, that the raising of the tax

:06:21.:06:24.

threshold that the Liberal Democrats pushed through in the coalition

:06:25.:06:30.

increased the effective pay in your pocket for basic rate taxpayers by

:06:31.:06:36.

about ?1000. We are talking about a tiny fraction of that. I suppose

:06:37.:06:41.

that you do have to ask, all of us in this country need to ask

:06:42.:06:45.

ourselves this question... Are we prepared to pay, in terms of the

:06:46.:06:49.

average worker, about ?3 extra per week to give us a guarantee that

:06:50.:06:54.

when our loved ones need that care, in their hour of need, perhaps

:06:55.:07:00.

suspected cancer, that care will be available for them? I have heard two

:07:01.:07:05.

cases recently brought my attention. An elderly couple, the wife has a

:07:06.:07:10.

very bad hip. They could not allow the weight to continue. She was told

:07:11.:07:14.

that she would need to wait 26 weeks, she was in acute pain. They

:07:15.:07:19.

then deduct paying ?20,000 for private treatment to circumvent

:07:20.:07:23.

waiting time. They hated doing it, because they did not want to jump

:07:24.:07:27.

the queue. But that is what is increasingly happening. Sorry to

:07:28.:07:31.

interrupt, Norman Lamb comedy make very good points but we are short on

:07:32.:07:38.

time today. One final question, it looks like you might have the chance

:07:39.:07:42.

to do any of this, I'm told the best you can hope to do internally is to

:07:43.:07:46.

double the number of seats you have, which would only take you to 18. Do

:07:47.:07:52.

you think that promising to raise people's income tax, even those on

:07:53.:07:57.

average earnings, is a vote winner? I think the people in this country

:07:58.:08:01.

are crying out for politicians to be straight and tenet as it is. At the

:08:02.:08:06.

moment we heading towards a Conservative landslide... -- tell it

:08:07.:08:13.

as it is. But do we want a 1-party state? We are electing a government

:08:14.:08:18.

not only to deal with the crucial Brexit negotiations, but oversee the

:08:19.:08:22.

stewardship of the NHS and funding of our schools, all of these

:08:23.:08:25.

critical issues. We need an effective opposition and with the

:08:26.:08:29.

Labour Party having taken itself off stage, the Liberal Democrats need to

:08:30.:08:33.

provide an effective opposition. Norman Lamb, thank you for joining

:08:34.:08:34.

us this morning. Thank you. Labour and Tories are anxious

:08:35.:08:39.

to stress the general election result is not a foregone conclusion,

:08:40.:08:42.

whatever the polls say. Order you just heard Norman Lamb say

:08:43.:08:47.

there that he thought the Conservatives were heading for a

:08:48.:08:49.

landslide... But did Thursday's dramatic set

:08:50.:08:52.

of local election results in England, Scotland and Wales give

:08:53.:08:54.

us a better idea of how the country Here's Emma Vardy with

:08:55.:08:57.

a behind-the-scenes look at how Good morning, it's seven o'clock

:08:58.:09:01.

on Friday, May 5th... The dawn of another results day.

:09:02.:09:04.

Anticipation hung in the air. Early results from the local

:09:05.:09:10.

elections in England suggest there's been a substantial swing

:09:11.:09:14.

from Labour to the Conservatives. While the pros did their thing,

:09:15.:09:17.

I needed breakfast. Don't tell anyone, but I'm

:09:18.:09:20.

going to pinch a sausage. The overnight counts had delivered

:09:21.:09:23.

successes for the Tories. But with most councils

:09:24.:09:25.

only getting started, there was plenty of action

:09:26.:09:27.

still to come. It's not quite the night

:09:28.:09:33.

of Labour's nightmares. There's enough mixed news

:09:34.:09:35.

in Wales, for example - looks like they're about to hold

:09:36.:09:37.

Cardiff - that they'll try and put But in really simple terms,

:09:38.:09:40.

four weeks from a general election, the Tories are going forward

:09:41.:09:47.

and Labour are going backwards. How does it compare being

:09:48.:09:50.

in here to doing the telly? Huw, how do you prepare yourself

:09:51.:09:54.

for a long day of results, then? We're not even on air yet,

:09:55.:10:01.

as you can see, and already in Tory HQ this morning,

:10:02.:10:06.

there's a kind of, "Oh, I'm scared this will make people

:10:07.:10:10.

think the election's just I think leave it

:10:11.:10:13.

like that - perfect. I want the Laura look.

:10:14.:10:16.

This is really good, isn't it? Usually, we're in here

:10:17.:10:19.

for the Daily Politics. But it's been transformed

:10:20.:10:23.

for the Election Results programme. But hours went by without Ukip

:10:24.:10:28.

winning a single seat. The joke going around

:10:29.:10:40.

Lincolnshire County Council today from the Conservatives

:10:41.:10:46.

is that the Tories have eaten We will rebrand

:10:47.:10:48.

and come back strong. Morale, I think, is inevitably

:10:49.:10:52.

going to take a bit of a tumble. Particularly if Theresa May starts

:10:53.:10:57.

backsliding on Brexit. And then I think we will be

:10:58.:11:00.

totally reinvigorated. There are a lot of good people

:11:01.:11:03.

in Ukip and I wouldn't want to say anything unkind,

:11:04.:11:06.

but we all know it's over. Ukip press officer.

:11:07.:11:09.

Difficult job. Ukip weren't the only ones

:11:10.:11:13.

putting a brave face on it. Labour were experiencing

:11:14.:11:17.

their own disaster day too, losing hundreds of seats

:11:18.:11:20.

and seven councils. If the result is what these

:11:21.:11:24.

results appear to indicate, Can we have a quick word

:11:25.:11:28.

for the Sunday Politics? A quick question for Sunday Politics

:11:29.:11:33.

- how are you feeling? Downhearted or fired up for June?

:11:34.:11:41.

Fired up, absolutely fired up. He's fired up.

:11:42.:11:45.

We're going to go out there... We cannot go on with another

:11:46.:11:47.

five years of this. How's it been for you today?

:11:48.:11:50.

Tiring. It always is, but I love elections,

:11:51.:11:53.

I really enjoy them. Yes, you know, obviously we're

:11:54.:11:55.

disappointed at some of the results, it's been a mixed bag,

:11:56.:12:00.

but some opinion polls and commentators predicted we'd be

:12:01.:12:02.

wiped out - we haven't. As for the Lib Dems,

:12:03.:12:07.

not the resurgence they hoped for, After a dead heat in Northumberland,

:12:08.:12:10.

the control of a whole council came The section of England

:12:11.:12:18.

in which we had elections yesterday was the section of England

:12:19.:12:27.

that was most likely to vote Leave. When you go to sleep at night,

:12:28.:12:31.

do you just have election results The answer is if that's still

:12:32.:12:34.

happening, I don't get to sleep. There we go.

:12:35.:12:40.

Maybe practice some yoga... Thank you very much

:12:41.:12:42.

but I have one here. With the introduction

:12:43.:12:46.

of six regional mayors, Labour's Andy Burnham

:12:47.:12:50.

became Mr Manchester. But by the time Corbyn came

:12:51.:12:53.

to celebrate, the new mayor We want you to stay for a second

:12:54.:12:55.

because I've got some I used to present news,

:12:56.:13:02.

as you probably know. I used to present BBC

:13:03.:13:05.

Breakfast in the morning. The SNP had notable successes,

:13:06.:13:07.

ending 40 years of Labour What did you prefer -

:13:08.:13:09.

presenting or politics? And it certainly had been a hard day

:13:10.:13:16.

at the office for some. Ukip's foothold in local government

:13:17.:13:22.

was all but wiped out, leaving the Conservatives

:13:23.:13:27.

with their best local So another election results

:13:28.:13:29.

day draws to a close. But don't worry, we'll be doing it

:13:30.:13:34.

all again in five weeks' time. For now, though, that's your lot.

:13:35.:13:40.

Now let's look at some of Thursday's results in a little more detail,

:13:41.:13:52.

and what they might mean for the wider fortunes

:13:53.:13:54.

In England, there were elections for 34 councils.

:13:55.:14:06.

The Conservatives took control of ten of them,

:14:07.:14:08.

gaining over 300 seats, while Labour sustained

:14:09.:14:10.

While the Lib Dems lost 28 seats, Ukip came close to extinction,

:14:11.:14:15.

and can now boast of only one councillor in the whole of England.

:14:16.:14:21.

In Scotland, the big story was Labour losing

:14:22.:14:23.

a third of their seats, and control of three councils -

:14:24.:14:25.

while the Tories more than doubled their number of councillors.

:14:26.:14:28.

In Wales, both the Conservatives and Plaid Cymru made gains,

:14:29.:14:32.

There was some encouraging news for Jeremy Corbyn's party

:14:33.:14:38.

after Liverpool and Manchester both elected Labour mayors,

:14:39.:14:40.

although the Tories narrowly won the West Midlands mayoral race.

:14:41.:14:47.

We're joined now by who else but elections expert John Curtice.

:14:48.:14:50.

You saw him in Emma's film, he's now back in Glasgow.

:14:51.:14:54.

In broad terms, what do these local election results tell us about the

:14:55.:15:07.

general election result? First we have to remember what Theresa May

:15:08.:15:12.

wants to achieve in the general election is a landslide, and winning

:15:13.:15:15.

a landslide means you have to win big in terms of votes. The local

:15:16.:15:19.

election results certainly suggest Theresa May is well on course to win

:15:20.:15:23.

the general election, at least with four weeks to go, and of course

:15:24.:15:27.

people could change their minds. We all agree the Conservatives were

:15:28.:15:31.

double-digit figures ahead of Labour in these elections. However, whereas

:15:32.:15:36.

the opinion polls on average at the moment suggest there is a 17 point

:15:37.:15:43.

Conservative lead, and that definitely would deliver a

:15:44.:15:45.

landslide, it seems the local election figures, at least in

:15:46.:15:47.

England, are pointing to something close to an 11 point Conservative

:15:48.:15:52.

lead. That increase would not necessarily deliver a landslide that

:15:53.:15:58.

she wants. The truth is, the next four weeks are probably not about

:15:59.:16:02.

who wins this election unless something dramatic changes, but

:16:03.:16:06.

there is still a battle as to whether or not Theresa May achieves

:16:07.:16:09.

her objective of winning a landslide. She has to win big. The

:16:10.:16:14.

local elections as she is not sure to be there, and therefore she is

:16:15.:16:18.

going to have to campaign hard. Equally, while Labour did have most

:16:19.:16:22.

prospect of winning, they still at least at the goal of trying to keep

:16:23.:16:27.

the conservative majority relatively low, and therefore the Parliamentary

:16:28.:16:31.

Labour Party are alive and kicking. Interesting that the local election

:16:32.:16:35.

results don't produce a landslide if replicated on June 8th, but when I

:16:36.:16:39.

looked at when local elections had taken place a month before the

:16:40.:16:45.

general election, it was in 1983 and 1987. The Tories did well in both

:16:46.:16:50.

local elections in these years, but come the general election, they

:16:51.:16:53.

added five points to their share of the vote. No reason it should happen

:16:54.:16:58.

again, but if it did, that would take them into landslide territory.

:16:59.:17:02.

Absolutely right, if they do five points better than the local

:17:03.:17:05.

elections, they are in landslide territory. We have to remember, in

:17:06.:17:12.

1983, the Labour Party ran an inept campaign and their support ballet.

:17:13.:17:16.

In 1987, David Owen and David Steele could not keep to the same lines. --

:17:17.:17:22.

their support fell away. That underlines how well the opposition

:17:23.:17:26.

campaign in the next four weeks does potentially matter in terms of

:17:27.:17:29.

Theresa May's ability to achieve their objective. It is worth

:17:30.:17:34.

noticing in the opinion polls, two things have happened, first, Ukip

:17:35.:17:38.

voters, a significant slice going to the Conservatives, which helped to

:17:39.:17:42.

increase the Conservative leader in the bowels. But in the last week,

:17:43.:17:45.

the Labour vote seems to have recovered. -- in the polls. So the

:17:46.:17:51.

party is not that far short of what Ed Miliband got in 2015, so the

:17:52.:17:57.

Conservative leader is back down to 16 or 17, as we started. So we

:17:58.:18:01.

should not necessarily presume Labour are going to go backwards in

:18:02.:18:06.

the way they did in 1983. I want to finish by asking if there are deeper

:18:07.:18:11.

forces at work? Whether the referendum in this country is

:18:12.:18:14.

producing a realignment in British politics. The Scottish referendum

:18:15.:18:18.

has produced a kind of realignment in Scotland. And in a different way,

:18:19.:18:23.

the Brexit referendum has produced a realignment in England and Wales. Do

:18:24.:18:30.

you agree? You are quite right. Referendums are potentially

:18:31.:18:34.

disruptive in Scotland, they helped to ensure the constitutional

:18:35.:18:37.

question became the central issue, and the 45% who voted yes our been

:18:38.:18:42.

faithful to the SNP since. Although the SNP put in a relatively

:18:43.:18:45.

disappointing performance in Scotland on Thursday. Equally, south

:18:46.:18:51.

of the border, on the leave side, in the past 12 months and particularly

:18:52.:18:54.

the last few weeks, the Conservatives have corralled the

:18:55.:18:59.

leave vote, about two thirds of those who voted leave now say they

:19:00.:19:03.

will vote Conservative. Last summer, the figure was only 50%. On the

:19:04.:19:08.

remain side, the vote is still fragmented. The reason why Theresa

:19:09.:19:18.

May is in the strong position she is is not simply because the leave vote

:19:19.:19:22.

has been realigned, but the remain vote has not. Thank you for joining

:19:23.:19:30.

us. You can go through polls and wonder who is up and down, but I

:19:31.:19:34.

wonder whether the Scottish and Brexit referendums have produced

:19:35.:19:39.

fundamental changes. In Scotland, the real division now is between the

:19:40.:19:46.

centre-left Nationalist party and the centre-right Unionist party.

:19:47.:19:50.

That has had the consequence of squeezing out Labour in the

:19:51.:19:55.

argument, never mind the Greens and the Lib Dems. In London, England,

:19:56.:20:00.

Wales, the Brexit referendum seems to have produced a realignment of

:20:01.:20:05.

the right to the Tories' advantage, and some trouble for the Labour blue

:20:06.:20:14.

vote -- blue-collar vote. It works for the pro Brexit end of the

:20:15.:20:20.

spectrum but not the other half. In the last century, we had people like

:20:21.:20:25.

Roy Jenkins dreaming of and writing about the realignment of British

:20:26.:20:27.

politics as though it could be consciously engineered, and in fact

:20:28.:20:31.

what made it happen was just the calling of a referendum. It's not

:20:32.:20:37.

something you can put about as a politician, it flows from below,

:20:38.:20:40.

when the public begin to think of politics in terms of single issues,

:20:41.:20:45.

dominant issues, such as leaving the European Union. Rather than a broad

:20:46.:20:49.

spectrum designed by a political class. I wonder whether now Remain

:20:50.:20:55.

have it in them to coalesce behind a single party. It doesn't look like

:20:56.:20:59.

they can do it behind Labour. The Liberal Democrats are frankly too

:21:00.:21:02.

small in Parliament to constitute that kind of force. The closest

:21:03.:21:07.

thing to a powerful Remain party is the SNP which by definition has

:21:08.:21:11.

limited appeal south of the border. It is hard. The realignment. We

:21:12.:21:18.

don't know if it is permanent or how dramatic it will be, but there is

:21:19.:21:21.

some kind of realignment going on. At the moment, it seems to be a

:21:22.:21:26.

realignment that by and large is to the benefit of the Conservatives.

:21:27.:21:31.

Without a doubt, and that can be directly attributed to the

:21:32.:21:34.

disappearance of Ukip from the political landscape. I have been

:21:35.:21:37.

saying since the referendum that I thought Ukip was finished. They

:21:38.:21:41.

still seem to be staggering on under the illusion... Some people may have

:21:42.:21:45.

picked up on Nigel Farage this morning saying that Ukip still had a

:21:46.:21:50.

strong role to play until Brexit actually happens. But I think it's

:21:51.:21:54.

very, very hard to convince the voters of that, because they feel

:21:55.:21:58.

that, with the result of the referendum, that was Ukip's job

:21:59.:22:01.

done. And those votes are not going to delay the party -- to the Labour

:22:02.:22:06.

Party because of the flaws with Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, they are

:22:07.:22:12.

shifting to the Tories. I agree. The key issue was the referendum. It has

:22:13.:22:16.

produced a fundamental change that few predicted at the time it was

:22:17.:22:21.

called. Most fundamental of all, it has brought about a unity in the

:22:22.:22:25.

Conservative Party. With some exceptions, but they are now off

:22:26.:22:28.

editing the Evening Standard and other things! This is now a party

:22:29.:22:34.

united around Brexit. Since 1992, the Tories have been split over

:22:35.:22:40.

Europe, at times fatally so. The referendum, in ways that David

:22:41.:22:43.

Cameron did not anticipate, has brought about a united front for

:22:44.:22:48.

this election. In a way, this is a sequel to the referendum, because

:22:49.:22:52.

it's about Brexit but we still don't know what form Brexit is going to

:22:53.:22:55.

take. By calling it early, Theresa May has in effect got another go at

:22:56.:23:01.

a kind of Brexit referendum without knowing what Brexit is, with a

:23:02.:23:05.

united Tory party behind her. We shall see if it is a blip or a

:23:06.:23:07.

long-term trend in British politics. Now let's turn to Labour's big

:23:08.:23:11.

campaign announcement today, and that was the promise of no

:23:12.:23:13.

income tax rise for those earning less than ?80,000 -

:23:14.:23:16.

which of course means those earning more than that could

:23:17.:23:19.

face an increase. Here's Shadow Chancellor John

:23:20.:23:20.

McDonell on the BBC earlier. What we are saying today, anyone

:23:21.:23:30.

earning below ?80,000, we will guarantee you will not have an

:23:31.:23:35.

increase in income tax, VAT or national insurance contributions.

:23:36.:23:37.

For those above 80,000, we are asking them to pay a modest bit more

:23:38.:23:42.

to fund our public services. A modest bit. You will see it will be

:23:43.:23:46.

a modest increase. Talking about modest increases, so we can have a

:23:47.:23:53.

society which we believe everyone shares the benefits of.

:23:54.:23:56.

We're joined now by Shadow Justice Secretary Richard Burgon, in Leeds.

:23:57.:24:01.

Mr McDonnell stressed that for those earning over 80,000, they would be

:24:02.:24:08.

paying more but it would be modest. He used the word modest 45 times.

:24:09.:24:12.

But there is only 1.2 million of them. -- 4-5 times. So that would

:24:13.:24:19.

not raise much money. This is about the key part of this tax policy for

:24:20.:24:25.

the many, not the few. We are saying that low earners and middle earners

:24:26.:24:29.

won't be paying more tax under a Labour government, which is not a

:24:30.:24:33.

policy the Conservatives have committed to yet. As John McDonnell

:24:34.:24:37.

also said in his interview earlier, if there is a tax rise on the top 5%

:24:38.:24:44.

of earners, earning over ?80,000, it would be a modest rise. I am trying

:24:45.:24:49.

to work out what that would mean in terms of money. If it is too modest,

:24:50.:24:55.

you don't raise much. What will happen is the Labour Party's

:24:56.:24:58.

manifesto, published in the next couple of weeks, wilfully set out

:24:59.:25:04.

and cost it. I can't make an announcement now. -- will fully set

:25:05.:25:13.

out and cost it. Moving on to the local elections, Mr Corbyn says he

:25:14.:25:16.

is closing the gap with the Tories. What evidence is there? John Curtis

:25:17.:25:22.

just said there was an 11% gap in the results, Labour 11% behind. The

:25:23.:25:28.

polls before that suggested Labour were anything up to 20% behind. Was

:25:29.:25:33.

it a great day for Labour? Certainly not. Is there a lot to do between

:25:34.:25:39.

now and June? Sure, but we are relishing every moment of that.

:25:40.:25:44.

Comparing equivalent elections in 2013, the Tories increased their

:25:45.:25:48.

share of the vote by 13%. You lost 2%. That's a net of 15%. In what way

:25:49.:25:58.

is that closing the gap? We have gone down to 11 points behind. Am I

:25:59.:26:05.

satisfied? Certainly not. Is Labour satisfied? Certainly not. A week is

:26:06.:26:09.

a long time in politics, 4-5 weeks is even longer. The local elections

:26:10.:26:13.

are over, the general election campaign is starting, and we want to

:26:14.:26:18.

put out there the policies that will improve the lives of low and middle

:26:19.:26:22.

income earners. And also many people looking to be well off as well. You

:26:23.:26:28.

lost 133 seats in Scotland. Are you closing the gap in Scotland? The

:26:29.:26:33.

journey back for Labour in Scotland, I always thought, wouldn't be an

:26:34.:26:37.

easy one. Since the council election results and Scotland that we are

:26:38.:26:42.

comparing this to, there has been an independence referendum and the

:26:43.:26:46.

terrible results for Labour in the 2015 general election. So it is a

:26:47.:26:50.

challenge, but one hundreds of thousands of Labour members are

:26:51.:26:54.

determined to meet. That is why we're talking about bread and butter

:26:55.:26:56.

policies to make people's lives better. These local elections took

:26:57.:27:04.

place midtown. Normally mid-term was the worst time for a government. --

:27:05.:27:11.

took place midterm. And the best for an opposition. That is a feature of

:27:12.:27:16.

British politics. So why did you lose 382 councillors in a midterm

:27:17.:27:21.

election? As Andy Burnham said when he gave his acceptance speech after

:27:22.:27:26.

his terrific first ballot result win in Manchester, it was an evening of

:27:27.:27:32.

mixed results for Labour. Generally bad, wasn't it? Why did you lose all

:27:33.:27:36.

of these councillors midterm? It is not a welcome result for Labour, I

:27:37.:27:41.

am not going to be deluded. But what I and the Labour Party are focused

:27:42.:27:45.

on is the next four weeks. And how we are going to put across policies

:27:46.:27:50.

like free school meals for primary school children, ?10 an hour minimum

:27:51.:27:55.

wage, the pledge not to increase tax for low and middle earners, 95% of

:27:56.:28:01.

earners in this country. And saving the NHS from privatisation and

:28:02.:28:04.

funding it properly. These are just some of the policies, including by

:28:05.:28:08.

the way a boost in carers' allowance, that will make the lives

:28:09.:28:13.

of people in Britain better off. Labour are for the many, not for the

:28:14.:28:20.

few. But people like from political parties aspiring to government is to

:28:21.:28:24.

be united and to be singing from the same song sheet among the leaders.

:28:25.:28:28.

You mentioned Andy Burnham. Why did he not join Mr Corbyn when Jeremy

:28:29.:28:32.

Corbyn went to the rally in Manchester on Friday to celebrate

:28:33.:28:38.

his victory? First of all, Andy Burnham did a radio interview

:28:39.:28:41.

straight after his great victory in which he said Jeremy Corbyn helped

:28:42.:28:45.

him to win votes in that election. Why didn't he turn up? As to the

:28:46.:28:52.

reason Andy Burnham wasn't there at the meeting Jeremy was doing in

:28:53.:28:58.

Manchester, it was because, I understand, Andy was booked into

:28:59.:29:00.

celebrate his victory with his family that night. I don't begrudge

:29:01.:29:05.

him that and hopefully you don't. The leader has made the effort to

:29:06.:29:08.

travel to Manchester to celebrate one of the few victories you enjoyed

:29:09.:29:12.

on Thursday, surely you would join the leader and celebrate together?

:29:13.:29:17.

Well, I don't regard, and I am sure you don't, Andy Burnham a nice time

:29:18.:29:22.

with his family... -- I don't begrudge. He made it clear Jeremy

:29:23.:29:28.

Corbyn assisted him. I can see you are not convinced yourself. I am

:29:29.:29:36.

convinced. The outgoing Labour leader in Derbyshire lost his seat

:29:37.:29:41.

on Thursday, you lost Derbyshire, which was a surprise in itself... He

:29:42.:29:46.

said that genuine party supporters said they were not voting Labour

:29:47.:29:50.

while you have Jeremy Corbyn as leader. Are you hearing that on the

:29:51.:29:57.

doorstep too? I have been knocking on hundreds of doors this week in my

:29:58.:30:01.

constituency and elsewhere. And of course, you never get every single

:30:02.:30:05.

voter thinking the leader of any political party is the greatest

:30:06.:30:11.

thing since sliced bread. But it's only on a minority of doorsteps that

:30:12.:30:15.

people are criticising the Labour leader. Most people aren't even

:30:16.:30:20.

talking about these questions. Most people are talking about Jeremy

:30:21.:30:24.

Corbyn's policies, free primary school meals, ?10 an hour minimum

:30:25.:30:31.

wage. Also policies such as paternity pay, maternity pay and

:30:32.:30:34.

sickness pay for the self-employed, that have been hard-pressed under

:30:35.:30:38.

this government. So I don't recognise that pitch of despondency,

:30:39.:30:41.

but I understand that in different areas, in local elections,

:30:42.:30:46.

perspectives are different. That was Derbyshire. The outgoing Labour

:30:47.:30:51.

leader of Nottinghamshire County Council said there was concern on

:30:52.:30:53.

the doorstep about whether Jeremy Corbyn was the right person to lead

:30:54.:30:59.

the Labour Party, and even Rotherham, loyal to Mr Corbyn, won

:31:00.:31:03.

the mail contest in Liverpool, he said that the Labour leader was more

:31:04.:31:10.

might on the doorstep. -- the mayor contest. Does that explain some of

:31:11.:31:14.

the performance on Thursday? I am confident that in the next four

:31:15.:31:18.

weeks, when we get into coverage on television, that people will see

:31:19.:31:23.

further the kind of open leadership Jeremy provides. In contrast to

:31:24.:31:27.

Theresa May's refusal to meet ordinary people. She came to my

:31:28.:31:31.

constituency and I don't think that a single person who lives here. And

:31:32.:31:35.

also she is ducking the chance to debate with Jeremy Corbyn on TV. She

:31:36.:31:38.

should do it and let the people decide. I don't know why she won't.

:31:39.:31:45.

Finally, the Labour mantra is that you are the party of the ordinary

:31:46.:31:50.

people, why is it the case that among what advertisers call C2s, D

:31:51.:32:03.

and E', how can you on the pulse of that social group, how can you do

:32:04.:32:09.

that? Our policy is to assist, protect and improve the living

:32:10.:32:13.

standards of people in those groups and our policy is to protect the

:32:14.:32:16.

living standards of the majority... They do not seem to be convinced? We

:32:17.:32:20.

have four weeks to convince them and I believe that we will. Thank you

:32:21.:32:23.

for coming onto the programme. But the wooden spoon from Thursday's

:32:24.:32:25.

elections undoubtedly went to Ukip. Four years ago the party

:32:26.:32:31.

won its best ever local government performance,

:32:32.:32:34.

but this time its support just Ukip's share of the vote

:32:35.:32:36.

plunging by as much as 18 points, most obviously

:32:37.:32:39.

benefiting the Conservatives. So is it all over for

:32:40.:32:43.

the self-styled people's army? Well we're joined now

:32:44.:32:45.

by the party's leader in the Welsh Assembly,

:32:46.:32:47.

Neil Hamilton, he's in Cardiff. Neil Hamilton, welcome. Ukip

:32:48.:32:58.

finished local elections gaining the same number of councillors as the

:32:59.:33:02.

Rubbish Party, one. That sums up your prospects, doesn't

:33:03.:33:08.

it? Rubbish? We have been around a long time and seemed that I'd go

:33:09.:33:14.

out, go in again, we will keep calm and carry on. We are in a phoney

:33:15.:33:18.

war, negotiations on Brexit have not started but what we know from

:33:19.:33:22.

Theresa May is that in seven years, as Home Secretary and Prime

:33:23.:33:26.

Minister, she has completely failed to control immigration which was one

:33:27.:33:30.

of the great driving forces behind the Brexit result. I'm not really

:33:31.:33:36.

looking for any great success in immigration from the Tories, and a

:33:37.:33:39.

lot of people who have previously voted for Ukip will be back in our

:33:40.:33:44.

part of the field again. They don't seem to care about that at the

:33:45.:33:49.

moment, your party lost 147 council seats. You gain one. It is time to

:33:50.:33:55.

shut up shop, isn't it? You are right, the voters are not focusing

:33:56.:33:58.

on other domestic issues at the moment. They have made up their

:33:59.:34:02.

minds going into these negotiations in Brussels, Theresa May, as Prime

:34:03.:34:07.

Minister, needs as much support as she can get. I think they are wrong

:34:08.:34:12.

in this respect, it would be better to have a cohort of Ukip MPs to back

:34:13.:34:18.

her up. She was greatly helped by the intervention of Mr Juncker last

:34:19.:34:24.

week as well, the stupidity in how the European Commission has tried to

:34:25.:34:27.

bully the British government, in those circumstances the British

:34:28.:34:30.

people will react in one way going the opposite way to what the

:34:31.:34:36.

Brussels establishment one. She has been fortunate as an acute tactician

:34:37.:34:39.

in having the election now. I struggle to see the way back for

:34:40.:34:43.

your party. You aren't a threat to the Tories in the south. Ukip voters

:34:44.:34:48.

are flocking to the Tories in the south. You don't threaten Labour in

:34:49.:34:53.

the north. It is the Tories who threaten Labour now in the north.

:34:54.:34:56.

There is no room to progress, is there? The reality will be is that

:34:57.:35:02.

once we are back on the domestic agenda again, and the Brexit

:35:03.:35:06.

negotiations are concluded, we will know what the outcome is. And the

:35:07.:35:12.

focus will be on bread and butter issues. We have all sorts of

:35:13.:35:15.

policies in our programme which other parties cannot match us on.

:35:16.:35:21.

The talk is putting up taxes to help the health service, we would scrap

:35:22.:35:25.

the foreign aid budget and put another ?8 billion in the health

:35:26.:35:28.

service, no other party says that. These policies would be popular with

:35:29.:35:34.

the ordinary working person. Is Paul Nuttall to blame on the meltdown of

:35:35.:35:39.

what happened, no matter who is leader? These are cosmic forces

:35:40.:35:42.

beyond the control of any individual at the moment, it is certainly not

:35:43.:35:46.

Paul Nuttall's .com he's been in the job for six months and in half that

:35:47.:35:52.

time he was fighting a by-election -- certainly not Paul Nuttall's

:35:53.:35:57.

fault. We have two become more professional than we have been

:35:58.:36:00.

recently. It has not been a brilliant year for Ukip one way or

:36:01.:36:06.

another, as you know, but there are prospects, in future, that are very

:36:07.:36:09.

rosy. I do not believe that the Tories will deliver on other

:36:10.:36:13.

promises that they are now making. The Welsh assembly elections are not

:36:14.:36:17.

until 2021, you are a member of that, but at that point you will not

:36:18.:36:21.

have any MEPs, because we will be out on the timetable. With this

:36:22.:36:27.

current showing he will have no end', you could be Ukip's most

:36:28.:36:34.

senior elected representative. That would be a turnout for the books! --

:36:35.:36:42.

no elected MPs. The Tories are not promoting the policies that I

:36:43.:36:45.

believe them. You will see that in the Ukip manifesto when it is

:36:46.:36:51.

shortly publish... Leaders talk mainly about the male genital

:36:52.:37:01.

mutilation and is -- female and burqas. No, when the manifesto

:37:02.:37:06.

launched, we have a lot of policies, I spoke moments ago about it, but

:37:07.:37:12.

also on foreign aid. Scrapping green taxes, to cut people's electricity

:37:13.:37:17.

bills by ?300 per year on average. There are a lot of popular policies

:37:18.:37:25.

that we have. We will hear more from that in the weeks to come.

:37:26.:37:30.

Paul Nuttall said "If the price of written leaving the year is a Tory

:37:31.:37:34.

advance after taking up this patriarch course, it is a price that

:37:35.:37:39.

Ukip is prepared to pay". That sounds like a surrender statement?

:37:40.:37:44.

It is a statement of fact, the main agenda is to get out of the EU and

:37:45.:37:49.

have full Brexit. That is why Ukip came into existence 20 years ago.

:37:50.:37:55.

When it is achieved, we go back to the normal political battle lines.

:37:56.:37:59.

Niall Hamilton in Cardiff, thank you very much for joining us.

:38:00.:38:03.

It's just gone 11.35am, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:38:04.:38:05.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:38:06.:38:08.

Coming up here in 20 minutes - we'll be talking about the French

:38:09.:38:20.

Welcome to a live edition of the Sunday Politics

:38:21.:38:22.

In the next 20 minutes we are laying on a feast of political discussion.

:38:23.:38:29.

the election campaigns - who are the old bangers

:38:30.:38:34.

and which parties will cut the mustard on June 8th?

:38:35.:38:38.

I'm joined in the studio by the new Mayor for

:38:39.:38:40.

looks at the aftermath of the Metro Mayor election.

:38:41.:38:53.

Tim Charles Bowles is duly elected as the West of England

:38:54.:38:56.

But straightaway, he's fighting another.

:38:57.:39:05.

Not exactly a case of no rest for the wicked.

:39:06.:39:08.

There never is when you're in any sort of public

:39:09.:39:12.

It has been the same in all my years as a councillor.

:39:13.:39:17.

Keeping fit with the Conservatives is what I call it.

:39:18.:39:22.

It's a fitness regime that seems to work.

:39:23.:39:26.

Outside Bristol, The West has Conservative councils,

:39:27.:39:29.

optimistic Parliamentary candidates and now a Conservative

:39:30.:39:31.

The Tories believe that makes it easier to get

:39:32.:39:36.

The fact that we can go to the Government,

:39:37.:39:41.

which is a Conservative Government and hopefully will remain

:39:42.:39:43.

a Conservative Government, we can do that.

:39:44.:39:46.

That helps us, when you are dealing with your own party.

:39:47.:39:48.

We are all singing from the same song sheet on the doors

:39:49.:40:04.

making our voices heard for the West of England.

:40:05.:40:06.

Political opponents see it differently.

:40:07.:40:07.

Labour's Lesley Mansell came within an electoral whisker

:40:08.:40:09.

She says Conservative councils rarely get special treatment

:40:10.:40:12.

It hasn't worked for Banes and South Gloucestershire.

:40:13.:40:15.

There's been a 37% cut, we've got no council

:40:16.:40:17.

housing being built, we've got congestion costing us

:40:18.:40:19.

The fact they are in the same party it should be easier.

:40:20.:40:34.

This is what you really call a political party.

:40:35.:40:36.

Despite coming third, the Lib Dems are

:40:37.:40:38.

They're definitely not celebrating the result.

:40:39.:40:41.

It's effectively Conservative hegemony across the West of England

:40:42.:40:43.

which may be an issue for the city of Bristol.

:40:44.:40:45.

We have to watch very carefully to make sure that Tim

:40:46.:40:48.

Bowles and his Conservative friends aren't prioritising the rural areas

:40:49.:40:51.

We also need to make sure that they do deliver on some of the

:40:52.:41:00.

promises they made for the West Country in terms of extra

:41:01.:41:03.

The Centre for Cities was instrumental promoting

:41:04.:41:10.

When you are thinking about transport, or if you're

:41:11.:41:16.

there isn't much difference between

:41:17.:41:23.

the Tories and Labour and the

:41:24.:41:25.

They might quibble about some of the issues at the margins

:41:26.:41:29.

but really all of them in the West

:41:30.:41:36.

of England recognise the need to build

:41:37.:41:38.

more housing, they need to address

:41:39.:41:40.

congestion, they need to have a

:41:41.:41:43.

better school system that enables firms to

:41:44.:41:44.

in the middle of another election campaign.

:41:45.:41:54.

Tim Bowles is in the studio. Metro Mayor from tomorrow morning.

:41:55.:42:03.

Congratulations. What are your transport plans? I have been

:42:04.:42:07.

speaking to various people throughout the region. The job has

:42:08.:42:10.

started. Officially it is 11 o'clock tomorrow morning but we have already

:42:11.:42:16.

started. I have been talking to people across the region in terms of

:42:17.:42:22.

looking at short-term targets that we can attract in terms of hotspots.

:42:23.:42:27.

We talked about this last week in terms of pinch points in the ring

:42:28.:42:30.

parts of the region. We will also be parts of the region. We will also be

:42:31.:42:33.

talking even more with ministers about projects like the M4 junction

:42:34.:42:45.

18 and also addressing challenges around Bath and congestion there.

:42:46.:42:52.

You see this might be for the benefit of the entire region, but it

:42:53.:42:57.

will mostly affect South Gloucestershire, your patch. The

:42:58.:43:05.

ring road feeds traffic in and out of Bristol. It will allow us with

:43:06.:43:09.

that junction to take traffic away from rules that are going through

:43:10.:43:14.

currently access the M4. It is a currently access the M4. It is a

:43:15.:43:17.

junction that will benefit everybody. Picking up on the point

:43:18.:43:21.

that Stephen Williams made in his film, but you might give precedence

:43:22.:43:29.

to South Gloucestershire and the other Conservative controlled area,

:43:30.:43:38.

Banes. I said throughout that I would be representing everybody in

:43:39.:43:41.

the region. But you made it clear that Bristol would not get the

:43:42.:43:44.

lion's share. Very clear that everybody would be looking at this

:43:45.:43:48.

as a region and finding ways that would benefit everybody. Projects

:43:49.:43:53.

like the M4 junction will help Bristol. Things like the sun and

:43:54.:43:56.

mingled in Bristol will also help other parts of the region. Those

:43:57.:44:03.

transport strategic rules will help everybody. Let us take Cribbs

:44:04.:44:08.

Causeway, the shopping centre, they want to expand it, it is then saved

:44:09.:44:14.

Gloucestershire. As the will decide Gloucestershire. Loss of trade and

:44:15.:44:19.

other shops, most likely to come from Bristol, Bristol gets no

:44:20.:44:22.

benefits, South Gloucestershire gets the benefit, Bristol gets

:44:23.:44:26.

disadvantages. I will use meter over? I will go back to my mantra.

:44:27.:44:31.

This is about regional economy. Cribbs Causeway is an important part

:44:32.:44:35.

of the visitor economy for the entire region, as indeed is M4, as

:44:36.:44:43.

indeed is Bristol. Each of those aspects will help drive the regional

:44:44.:44:47.

economies. We will be looking at Cribbs Causeway in the see me that

:44:48.:44:53.

we look at visitor economy and Bath and Bristol. It is about benefits

:44:54.:44:56.

for everybody across the region. Bristol is Labour run with our

:44:57.:45:00.

Labour mayor. The other two Labour mayor. The other two

:45:01.:45:06.

authorities that you have control or influence over our conservative,

:45:07.:45:10.

will you be the tail wagging the Bristol dog? I know that ten and

:45:11.:45:18.

Matthew work well. They genuinely do work together. I am looking forward

:45:19.:45:25.

to being the fourth member of that team. But this is about strategic

:45:26.:45:27.

planning for the region. It is not planning for the region. It is not

:45:28.:45:31.

about those individual constituency parts. I will be championing

:45:32.:45:37.

everybody. I want to come back to the point

:45:38.:45:42.

made in the film by Lesley Mansell. In the past South Gloucestershire

:45:43.:45:48.

and Banes, Conservative controlled, haven't got a better deal from the

:45:49.:45:51.

Conservative Government, will you be able to get that deal for the West

:45:52.:45:55.

of England? Will you be able to demand more resources, or if to

:45:56.:46:01.

high? I have said it is important to high? I have said it is important to

:46:02.:46:05.

have somebody that will work constructively with council leaders,

:46:06.:46:08.

partners, and also with the Government. My man has never been

:46:09.:46:16.

thumping tables, it has always been taking good positive cases to people

:46:17.:46:19.

and making a positive case for the West of England. That is what I will

:46:20.:46:25.

be doing. It will be an advantage to have a member of the Government as

:46:26.:46:28.

being conservative but we have already been meeting the Chancellor,

:46:29.:46:31.

meeting key ministers are ready, and I will be working for the benefit of

:46:32.:46:36.

everybody, hopefully with Theresa May. The Lib Dems said you with the

:46:37.:46:41.

Government puppet. I know who Government puppet. I know who

:46:42.:46:50.

Stephen Kearns. It is vital we have somebody working constructively but

:46:51.:46:54.

in the best interests of everybody. Yes, I will be challenging anybody,

:46:55.:46:58.

at council level, as Partner level, or in Government, to make sure we're

:46:59.:47:02.

getting the best deals all the way through. You will be at the table as

:47:03.:47:11.

Andy Burnham who has won in Manchester, and Andy streets, who

:47:12.:47:14.

has taken over in the West Midlands. Will you be able to pull your weight

:47:15.:47:21.

on that table? These are strong particle and charismatic men. I have

:47:22.:47:25.

got every confidence that the best available get good representation

:47:26.:47:28.

from me, not just nationally but globally. It is important that

:47:29.:47:33.

somebody is driven by that. That is mighty all along. In terms of

:47:34.:47:36.

sitting down with people from the other regions, the West of England

:47:37.:47:41.

is the strongest economy outside the south-east, we have got a brilliant

:47:42.:47:44.

will be making sure I am standing up will be making sure I am standing up

:47:45.:47:48.

and getting the right exposure. Good. Don't go away. We have more to

:47:49.:47:50.

talk about. Of course there were other

:47:51.:47:53.

elections on Thursday - with the Conservatives picking up 21

:47:54.:47:55.

seats in Gloucestershire, Labour and the Liberal Democrats

:47:56.:47:57.

both councillors and Dickon Hooper has made

:47:58.:48:00.

a meal of it in Taunton. Voter by voter, the

:48:01.:48:05.

leaflets are handed out. The local elections are done -

:48:06.:48:10.

but campaigning for June isn't. The Lib Dems know

:48:11.:48:13.

they have to do better. Despite their vote share rising,

:48:14.:48:17.

they lost seats in Somerset. We were pleased that

:48:18.:48:20.

we've got a rise in our That didn't translate

:48:21.:48:27.

directly into seats. But I don't accept that

:48:28.:48:31.

we are swept away by a What's their appetite for the party

:48:32.:48:33.

at the general election? How are the sausages? Fantastic. How

:48:34.:49:01.

is the politics? I have already met the Liberal Democrat candidate for

:49:02.:49:05.

the general election who called by about one week ago. We had a

:49:06.:49:09.

discussion. I agree with some of the things apart from tax increases. You

:49:10.:49:15.

could go conservative on them? Yes. There is a tipping point at the end

:49:16.:49:21.

and we are not sure what that is until nearer the time. I voted

:49:22.:49:29.

Liberal Democrat. They are the only party that have a positive take on

:49:30.:49:34.

the problems facing the nation. I would fall Conservative consistently

:49:35.:49:39.

at the moment because we need strong leadership to get us through the

:49:40.:49:44.

next five years. Strong and stable leadership? I have heard that

:49:45.:49:47.

phrase. You are a Labour of water thinking of voting conservative and

:49:48.:49:50.

you are a Lib Dem not convinced by then. As anything come -- is

:49:51.:49:57.

anything certain? No. No. Enjoy the sausages.

:49:58.:50:00.

I feel disappointed for all the people that work with you and all

:50:01.:50:18.

the good friends that came out. I am getting emotional. We are stoical.

:50:19.:50:22.

We move on. My good friend is standing for Parliament and we will

:50:23.:50:23.

live to fight another day. Labour is in a weak position at the

:50:24.:50:36.

moment. For an opposition party to still be under 30% in its share of

:50:37.:50:43.

the vote in these contests, to still be doing as badly as it has, it

:50:44.:50:44.

still has a long way to go. With the opposition parties playing

:50:45.:50:47.

catch up in certain parts We're joined by Lesley Williams,

:50:48.:50:51.

the leader of the Labour group on Gloucestershire County Council,

:50:52.:50:57.

and also by Tessa Munt, the newly-elected Liberal Democrat

:50:58.:50:59.

councillor in Wells. How many are you going to win by in

:51:00.:51:20.

the general election, how many seats? I am not making predictions.

:51:21.:51:25.

Are you going to win? We have as good a chance of winning as anybody.

:51:26.:51:30.

Really? I do. What has been the reaction on the doorstep when you

:51:31.:51:36.

call round to Jeremy Corbyn, is he an asset is he not an asset? The

:51:37.:51:40.

Labour Party has grown enormously over the last few months. The

:51:41.:51:45.

membership has elected a leader. We get behind the leader. The

:51:46.:51:48.

membership needs to get out onto the stump, tell people what we stand

:51:49.:51:54.

for, and we will return Labour MPs to Government. What do people say

:51:55.:51:59.

about Jeremy Corbyn? Very little. Is that good or bad. I think it says a

:52:00.:52:03.

lot about people's lives, but what is going on for them, that their

:52:04.:52:09.

local concerns, I am a local County Council, I am interested in their

:52:10.:52:13.

lives, and how they can be improved. Why did you do so really, the party,

:52:14.:52:19.

and Gloucester? There are a number of reasons and it still has to be

:52:20.:52:22.

analysed. But in stride we didn't do badly. But in Gloucestershire and

:52:23.:52:27.

you did. In certain areas he did badly but in Stroud where Reid told

:52:28.:52:30.

voters what they stood for we did well and Tories lost seats in favour

:52:31.:52:35.

of the Labour Party and the Green Party. Overall they didn't lose

:52:36.:52:39.

seats. Over the difference, but if you put your effort into it and tell

:52:40.:52:43.

people what we stand for we can get people to get out and fought back.

:52:44.:52:47.

So you didn't put effort into battle and Gloucester? I don't know. We did

:52:48.:52:51.

put effort and there but I was working in Stroud district and my

:52:52.:52:54.

particular division and people tie-dyed and faltered. Martin is a

:52:55.:52:59.

working-class area of Gloucester. It should be natural territory. It is a

:53:00.:53:08.

very mixed population. Tessa Munt, welcome, you lost in the general

:53:09.:53:12.

election, and we have got some pictures of you losing your seat

:53:13.:53:17.

there. And here you were on Thursday, because you have been

:53:18.:53:21.

elected as a county councillor. That is what politics does. It is a

:53:22.:53:28.

painful business. But is a roller-coaster. You got back as a

:53:29.:53:31.

counsellor but there was not the Lib Dem reviver but we have been told to

:53:32.:53:36.

expect. I don't know that that is quite true. We calibrated the number

:53:37.:53:41.

of votes this time in the County Council, my area, our vote has gone

:53:42.:53:48.

up by 71%. And even during the period in 2009 with Nick Clegg Arab

:53:49.:53:52.

thought had gone up by 32%. You lost half a dozen councillors. -- in 2009

:53:53.:54:13.

with Nick Clegg Arab vote had gone up by 32%.

:54:14.:54:26.

We have got a good proposition. Do you accept that Theresa Villiers

:54:27.:54:29.

will be the next Prime Minister? Not entirely. You only have to look at

:54:30.:54:39.

the local election results. Tim, you were given a run for your money in

:54:40.:54:41.

the Metro Mayor area. deliver serious numbers. We spoke

:54:42.:55:03.

about this before in terms of size and scale, diversity of the region

:55:04.:55:07.

that I was up for election for earlier this week. It has a very

:55:08.:55:12.

different demographic and lots of areas and in terms of voting

:55:13.:55:16.

history, it was clear to us in the Conservative Party it was always

:55:17.:55:20.

going to be a very close fight between the Labour Party and the

:55:21.:55:25.

Conservative Party. There are nine Parliamentary constituencies, six of

:55:26.:55:29.

them are Tory health, you should have won easily. When you analyse

:55:30.:55:32.

that numbers about how the votes were cast in the last general

:55:33.:55:37.

election and local election, it was clear it was good to be a close

:55:38.:55:40.

fight between the Conservatives and the Labour Party. The message that

:55:41.:55:46.

we were giving us a constructive future for the region, a positive

:55:47.:55:50.

future for the region. That is what helped win it for us on Thursday.

:55:51.:55:54.

Are you expecting a Conservative landslide in one month's town? I was

:55:55.:55:59.

out campaigning yesterday morning, bright and early, all through

:56:00.:56:00.

yesterday. We think it is going to yesterday. We think it is going to

:56:01.:56:07.

be a hard fight. We are campaigning every day. We are taking nothing for

:56:08.:56:11.

granted. They are fighting every seat in the area. If you look at the

:56:12.:56:18.

results that we can focus on, take Cheltenham, Thornbury, Bristol West,

:56:19.:56:22.

there is no question, and other seats close to mine, then you will

:56:23.:56:27.

find yourself in a situation where you have got the Dems who are

:56:28.:56:33.

fighting close up. Are you going on the streets to see you will put up

:56:34.:56:37.

taxes? People don't mind about that. The idea of putting a penny on

:56:38.:56:43.

income tax, it hurts those people who are more well off more, of

:56:44.:56:50.

course it is a good idea. More money for the NHS. When will the tax

:56:51.:56:54.

changes take effect, how much will you have to be earning to pay the

:56:55.:56:59.

extra penny? You start paying taxes soon as you get to 11,000 500. Simon

:57:00.:57:06.

on 12,000, 13,000 could pay more tax. People are desperate to do

:57:07.:57:10.

something about the NHS and the idea that that money is ring fenced and

:57:11.:57:17.

totally for the NHS. We have heard Theresa May making packages about

:57:18.:57:19.

mental health care. The money that she and her men -- that she and her

:57:20.:57:28.

predecessors promised. 6 billion, a good deal of money. They have had 8

:57:29.:57:33.

billion already. They haven't. It is not going that way. It gets cut off

:57:34.:57:38.

in a different way. Money promised for children's mental health

:57:39.:57:41.

services has not come through and that needs to be dealt with. Do you

:57:42.:57:45.

feel embarrassed that it is the Lib Dem is promising to increase taxes

:57:46.:57:51.

for local services? And you are not. Unless you are an 80,000 this what

:57:52.:57:55.

Labour said this morning, that is when the new tax regime will come

:57:56.:57:59.

in. That is true but I remember at the Lib Dems saying they would put a

:58:00.:58:03.

penny on education. They tend to make promises. That didn't work

:58:04.:58:11.

either. They make promises they can't keep. I don't know what to do

:58:12.:58:16.

with that one. That is incorrect. Look at the promises that we did

:58:17.:58:19.

make about income tax in 2010, David Cameron said it was impossible, and

:58:20.:58:25.

we delivered that. The Conservatives are keeping very quiet about tax. It

:58:26.:58:31.

is like a football match. Theresa May, the 80th minute, she is playing

:58:32.:58:39.

it safe, she is not trying to shoot. We don't know what that Labour and

:58:40.:58:43.

Conservative tax priorities would be. The message I am getting

:58:44.:58:48.

throughout my campaign and certainly yesterday was about having strong

:58:49.:58:50.

and stable leadership for the future. I promise you I will say

:58:51.:58:57.

that only once. But honestly that is what was coming across on the

:58:58.:59:03.

doorstep in a big way. What was important for me in the region was

:59:04.:59:07.

showing how we are going to help improve the regional economy. That

:59:08.:59:13.

is vital again for the country. Austerity continues under the

:59:14.:59:16.

Conservatives. We have to live within our means. Everybody

:59:17.:59:21.

recognises that. It is important that we live within our means, that

:59:22.:59:26.

we develop the economy, so that we can invest for everybody. I want to

:59:27.:59:31.

talk about how the opposition parties at the moment might position

:59:32.:59:38.

themselves. We know that in Gloucestershire, in one seat

:59:39.:59:42.

everybody stood aside and let the Greens go against the Conservatives

:59:43.:59:44.

and the Greens won that particular seat. Let us hear from the Green

:59:45.:59:50.

Party. Yes, we fought very hard. We did well for years ago at County

:59:51.:59:53.

Council, we came second. We thought it was a good seats to target. There

:59:54.:00:00.

are so many Greens who think they are the only green, but we were able

:00:01.:00:03.

to bring them together and get them out to the ballot box. Let us talk

:00:04.:00:09.

about the possibility of this so-called progressive Alliance,

:00:10.:00:12.

would you consider doing some sort of deal between Labour, the Lib

:00:13.:00:15.

Dems, perhaps the Greens which are not at the moment. They mentioned

:00:16.:00:20.

Hampton, it was not one of our target seats, the Lib Dems didn't

:00:21.:00:25.

put up a candidate. I am sure there are discussions going on. A lot of

:00:26.:00:31.

people in my area in Somerset is no that this is always a battle between

:00:32.:00:36.

the Conservatives and the Lib Dems. A lot of people have grown used to

:00:37.:00:41.

tactical voting. As far as any deals are concerned that is for the Green

:00:42.:00:44.

Party to decide what they want to do. I am not want to tell them what

:00:45.:00:48.

to do. We had better leave it there. Thank you all very much indeed. That

:00:49.:00:50.

is all for this week. housing associations and investment,

:00:51.:01:16.

but we have run out of time, thank you. Andrew.

:01:17.:01:26.

Four weeks to go until polling day on the 8th of June, what will the

:01:27.:01:33.

party strategies be for the remaining four weeks? Let's begin

:01:34.:01:37.

with the Conservatives. Do they just try to continue to play it safe for

:01:38.:01:43.

four weeks? Yes, with this important qualification. Theresa May Corp this

:01:44.:01:47.

election to get her own personal mandate partly, partly because she

:01:48.:01:51.

thought she would win big but to get her own personal mandate. Therefore,

:01:52.:01:57.

she needs to define it. In her own interests and to do with

:01:58.:02:02.

accountability to the country. So clearly, they will not take risks

:02:03.:02:06.

when they are so far ahead in the polls. What they do say in the

:02:07.:02:07.

manifesto matters in terms of the space that she has in

:02:08.:02:14.

the coming years to define her leadership against David Cameron 's.

:02:15.:02:19.

She is a free figure, partly on the basis of what she says as to how big

:02:20.:02:24.

she wins. They cannot just play it safe and repeat their mantra of

:02:25.:02:34.

strong and stable leadership, if she is going to claim her own mandate,

:02:35.:02:39.

they need the top policy? Yes, and what is unusual about this is that

:02:40.:02:42.

the manifesto matters far more because of what they need to do with

:02:43.:02:47.

it afterwards, than in terms of whether it is going to win anybody

:02:48.:02:51.

over now. Clearly, the strategy is yes, we do have two layout out a few

:02:52.:02:55.

things, there are interesting debates as to whether, for example,

:02:56.:02:59.

they will still commit to this ambition of reducing immigration to

:03:00.:03:02.

the tens of thousands, we do not know the answer yet. It is a

:03:03.:03:07.

question on whether she is setting herself up for difficulties later

:03:08.:03:13.

on. It will be a short manifesto, I would venture to guess? It is in her

:03:14.:03:18.

interests to be as noncommittal as possible, that argues for a short

:03:19.:03:23.

manifesto but what does strike me about the Conservative campaign,

:03:24.:03:27.

aside from the ambiguity on policy, is how personal it is. I think

:03:28.:03:31.

Theresa May, in her most recent speech, referred to "My local

:03:32.:03:36.

candidates", rather than Parliamentary candidates, very much

:03:37.:03:39.

framing it as a presidential candidate in France or the USA. Not

:03:40.:03:46.

a rational on her part. Everything I hear from the MPs on the ground and

:03:47.:03:51.

the focus groups being done by the parties, is that a big chunk of the

:03:52.:03:54.

population personally identify with her. If you can wrap up Middle

:03:55.:03:58.

England into a physical object and embody it in a person, it would be

:03:59.:04:03.

her. Although Jeremy Corbyn's unpopularity accounts for a big

:04:04.:04:07.

slice of her popularity, she has done a good job of bonding with the

:04:08.:04:11.

public. We never saw that coming! But you may well be right. That is

:04:12.:04:16.

happening now. Labour say it wants the Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell

:04:17.:04:20.

to play a more prominent role in the Labour campaign, he was on The

:04:21.:04:23.

Andrew Marr Show this morning and he was asked if he was a Marxist, he

:04:24.:04:26.

denied that he was. It surprised me as I had seen tape from before

:04:27.:04:32.

saying that he was proud of it. Let's look now and then. Are you a

:04:33.:04:40.

Marxist? I believe that there is a lot to learn... Yes or no? I believe

:04:41.:04:44.

that there is a lot to learn from reading capital, that is recommended

:04:45.:04:49.

not only by me but measuring economists as well. I also believe

:04:50.:04:52.

that in the long tradition of the Labour Party... We need to demand

:04:53.:05:01.

systemic change. I am a Marxist. This is a classic crisis of the

:05:02.:05:05.

economy. A capitalist crisis. I've been waiting for this for a

:05:06.:05:11.

generation! That was from about four years ago. No, I'm not a Marxist,

:05:12.:05:16.

yes, I am a Marxist... I've been waiting for the Marxist revolution

:05:17.:05:20.

my whole life... Does this kind of thing matter? Yes, but in fairness,

:05:21.:05:24.

I think he is a really good interviewee. The Shadow Cabinet have

:05:25.:05:30.

untested figures in a national campaign. None have ever been

:05:31.:05:35.

exposed at any level to a national media campaign that they are about

:05:36.:05:39.

to experience. He is the best interviewee. In fairness to him,

:05:40.:05:43.

when he gave that clip four years ago, I bet he never dream that he

:05:44.:05:49.

would be in a senior front bench position. But the background is

:05:50.:05:53.

clear. They are of the left, and I think they would all have described

:05:54.:05:56.

it. Jeremy Corbyn would have done, he is close to being like Tony Benn.

:05:57.:06:03.

There are about four Labour campaign is being fought in this election.

:06:04.:06:08.

Their campaign, the old Shadow Cabinet, campaigning in

:06:09.:06:12.

constituencies, but not identifying with that campaign. There is the

:06:13.:06:17.

former Labour leader Tony Blair. Is it damaging? I think so, if they

:06:18.:06:22.

could be damaged any further, I could see all of the Labour MPs with

:06:23.:06:27.

their heads in their hands. What I am hearing from Labour MPs is that

:06:28.:06:30.

there is not one of them who do not feel that they have a horrendous

:06:31.:06:34.

battle on their hands. These will be very individual local campaigns,

:06:35.:06:38.

where local MPs are winning despite the party leadership and not because

:06:39.:06:42.

of it. Already, talk is turning to what happens next. Is there anyway

:06:43.:06:49.

that Jeremy Corbyn, giving a horrendous set of general election

:06:50.:06:54.

results as many anticipate, may stay on all the same? It is not clear

:06:55.:07:00.

that even if the polls are right, that Mr Corbyn will go? John

:07:01.:07:04.

McDonnell implied it might not be the case but previously, he said it

:07:05.:07:08.

would be. What do you make of reports that the Labour strategy is

:07:09.:07:14.

not, I cannot quite believe I am saying this, not to win seats but

:07:15.:07:17.

maximise a share of the vote. If they do better than Ed Miliband with

:07:18.:07:23.

30.5% of the vote, they believe they live to fight another day? Yes, it

:07:24.:07:28.

reminded me of Tony Benn's speech after the 1983 election where they

:07:29.:07:31.

said as bad as the Parliamentary defeat was there were 8 million

:07:32.:07:36.

votes for socialism. A big section of public opinion voted for that

:07:37.:07:44.

manifesto. I wonder whether that is Corbyn's supporters best chance of

:07:45.:07:49.

holding onto power. Whether they can say that those votes are a platform

:07:50.:07:54.

on which we can build. That said, even moderate Labour MPs and

:07:55.:07:58.

desperate for a quick leadership contest. I hear a lot of them say

:07:59.:08:02.

that they would like to leave it for one year. Maybe have Tom Watson as

:08:03.:08:06.

an acting Labour leader. He would still have a mandate. Give the top

:08:07.:08:10.

party a chance to regroup and get rid of some of its problems and

:08:11.:08:14.

decide where it stands on policy. Most importantly, for potential

:08:15.:08:17.

candidates to show what they are made of, rather than lurching

:08:18.:08:21.

straight into an Yvette Cooper Coronation. 30 seconds on the

:08:22.:08:26.

Liberal Democrats, their strategy was to mop up the Remain vote.

:08:27.:08:33.

Uncertain about the Brexit party in demise. Ukip. The remain as have a

:08:34.:08:41.

dilemma, the little Democrats are not a strong enough vessel with 89

:08:42.:08:47.

MPs to risk all ongoing for them -- the Liberal Democrats. Labour do not

:08:48.:08:52.

know where they stand on Brexit. There is not a robust alternative

:08:53.:08:57.

vessel for what is now a pro-Brexit Conservative Party. At the moment.

:08:58.:09:05.

Four weeks to go, but not for France...

:09:06.:09:07.

France has been voting since early this morning, and we should get

:09:08.:09:10.

a first estimate of who will be the country's next President

:09:11.:09:13.

Just to warn you there are some flashing images coming up.

:09:14.:09:17.

The choice in France is between a centre-left liberal

:09:18.:09:18.

reformer Emmanuel Macron and a right-wing nationalist

:09:19.:09:20.

Marine Le Pen - both have been casting their votes this morning.

:09:21.:09:23.

The two candidates topped a field of 11 presidential

:09:24.:09:25.

hopefuls in the first round of elections last month.

:09:26.:09:27.

The campaign has been marked by its unpredictability,

:09:28.:09:30.

and in a final twist on Friday evening, just before

:09:31.:09:36.

campaigning officially ended, Mr Macron's En Marche! group said

:09:37.:09:38.

it had been the victim of a "massive" hack,

:09:39.:09:43.

with a trove of documents released online.

:09:44.:09:46.

The Macron team said real documents were mixed up with fake ones,

:09:47.:09:49.

and electoral authorities warned media and the public that spreading

:09:50.:09:51.

details of the leaks would breach strict election rules.

:09:52.:10:02.

I'm joined now from Paris by the journalist

:10:03.:10:03.

As I left Paris recently, everybody told me that there was the consensus

:10:04.:10:17.

that Mr Macron would win, and win pretty comfortable you. Is there any

:10:18.:10:22.

reason to doubt that? -- pretty comfortably. I don't think so, there

:10:23.:10:26.

have been so many people left and right, former candidates who have

:10:27.:10:32.

decided that it was more important to vote for Macron, even if it was

:10:33.:10:36.

agreed with him, then run the risk of having Marine Le Pen as

:10:37.:10:41.

president. I think the spread is now 20 points, 60% to Macron, 40% to Le

:10:42.:10:46.

Pen. So outside of the margin of error that it would take something

:10:47.:10:52.

huge for this to be observed. If the polls are right and Mr Macron wins,

:10:53.:10:56.

he has to put together a government, and in May there is a Coronation,

:10:57.:11:03.

then he faces parliamentary elections in June and could face a

:11:04.:11:08.

fractured parliament where he does not have a clear majority for his

:11:09.:11:13.

reforms. He could then faced difficulties in getting his

:11:14.:11:18.

programme through? I think that right now, with how things are

:11:19.:11:22.

looking, considering you have one half of the Republican party, the

:11:23.:11:27.

Conservative Party, they are making clear sides, not only that they want

:11:28.:11:33.

to support Macron but are supporting him actively. It means looking at

:11:34.:11:39.

the equivalent of the German party, the great coalition. Depending on

:11:40.:11:43.

how many seats established parties keep in the house committee may very

:11:44.:11:46.

well have a Republican Prime Minister, rather than having an

:11:47.:11:58.

adversarial MP, he may have someone who is relatively unknown outside of

:11:59.:12:06.

France, and a young woman. Contended that lost the Parez mayorship three

:12:07.:12:12.

years ago. She is a scientist and has been secretary of state. She

:12:13.:12:17.

would be an interesting coalition Prime Minister. Finally, Marine Le

:12:18.:12:24.

Pen, if she goes down to defeat a night, does she have the stomach and

:12:25.:12:29.

ambition, and the energy, to try it all again in 2022? She has all of

:12:30.:12:36.

that. The question is, would they let her? How badly would she lose?

:12:37.:12:44.

Her niece, now 27, a hard-working and steady person, unlike Marine Le

:12:45.:12:51.

Pen, who flunked her do paid -- debate, her niece may decide that

:12:52.:12:55.

2022 is her turn. Yet another Le Pen! All right, we will see. Just

:12:56.:13:03.

five years to wait, but only a few hours until the results of the

:13:04.:13:05.

election tonight. And we will get the exit polls here

:13:06.:13:10.

on the BBC. Given the exit polls will give as a pretty fair

:13:11.:13:14.

indication of what the result is going to be tonight. That will be on

:13:15.:13:16.

BBC news. That's all for today. The Daily Politics will cover every

:13:17.:13:20.

turn of this election campaign, And we're back here on BBC One

:13:21.:13:22.

at our usual time Next Sunday. Remember - if it's Sunday,

:13:23.:13:27.

it's the Sunday Politics. Our crack team of experts

:13:28.:13:29.

use pioneering research

:13:30.:14:14.

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by Labour's shadow justice secretary Richard Burgon and Ukip's Neil Hamilton to discuss the local election results. On the political panel are Isabel Oakeshott, Steve Richards and Janan Ganesh.


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