14/05/2017 Sunday Politics West


14/05/2017

Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey, housing minister Brandon Lewis and American political pollster Frank Luntz.


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Transcript


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It's Sunday morning and this is the Sunday Politics.

:00:38.:00:41.

Theresa May unveils plans to build many more affordable homes

:00:42.:00:44.

in England, but with no price tag, timetable or building targets -

:00:45.:00:47.

Labour takes aim at the City with what it calls a Robin Hood Tax

:00:48.:00:54.

to fund public services, but will traders just

:00:55.:00:56.

Don't look at the polls - Jeremy Corbyn, at least,

:00:57.:01:00.

insists he can win this election - so which way will

:01:01.:01:02.

and here, what the parties are saying about tackling the air

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pollution problem in London. And with me, our own scientifically

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selected focus group of political pundits -

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they're not so much undecided as clueless -

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Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott They'll be tweeting

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throughout the programme. So, we've got two new

:01:34.:01:41.

policies this morning. Labour say they will introduce

:01:42.:01:43.

a financial transaction tax if they win the general election

:01:44.:01:45.

and what they're calling "the biggest crackdown on tax

:01:46.:01:48.

avoidance in the country's history". The Conservatives say they'll work

:01:49.:01:50.

with local authorities in England to build council houses

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with the right to buy. Theresa May says the policy

:01:53.:01:54.

"will help thousands of people get on the first rung

:01:55.:01:57.

of the housing ladder". Steve, what do you make of them? I

:01:58.:02:09.

have been conditioned after doing tax and spend debates in

:02:10.:02:14.

pre-election periods for many decades to treat policy is not as

:02:15.:02:18.

literal but as arguments. In other words if you look back to 2015 the

:02:19.:02:22.

Tory plan to wipe out the deficit was never going to happen and yet it

:02:23.:02:27.

framed and large event. In that sense the Robin Hood tax is a

:02:28.:02:31.

sensible move for Labour to make at this point because it is part of a

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narrative of reconfiguring taxation to be fair. Treating it as an

:02:37.:02:39.

argument rather than something that would happen in day one of Labour

:02:40.:02:46.

government is sensible. In terms of building houses Theresa May said

:02:47.:02:49.

right from the beginning when she was in Number Ten that there is a

:02:50.:02:52.

housing deficit in this country rather than the economic deficit

:02:53.:02:56.

George Osborne was focusing on, and this is an example of trying to get

:02:57.:03:01.

house-building going. It seems entirely sensible, not sure how it

:03:02.:03:05.

works with right to buy but again as framing of a 90 minute it makes

:03:06.:03:10.

sense. I disagree with Steve on one front which is how sensible Theresa

:03:11.:03:17.

May's policy is on the housing announcement. I think more broadly

:03:18.:03:22.

these two announcements have something in common which is that

:03:23.:03:25.

over the next 24 hours both will probably unravel in different ways.

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Ye of little faith! The Mayor of London has already said he doesn't

:03:33.:03:35.

agree with this, and when people see the actual impact of what looks like

:03:36.:03:42.

a populist tax will very potentially affect people's pensions, it might

:03:43.:03:47.

become a lot less popular. On the Tory housing plans, I think it is

:03:48.:03:51.

difficult to imagine how they are going to implement this huge, what

:03:52.:03:56.

looks like a huge land and property grab. Through compulsory purchase

:03:57.:04:01.

orders, which are not a simple instrument. They say they will

:04:02.:04:05.

change the law but really the idea of paying people below the market

:04:06.:04:08.

value for their assets is not something I can see sitting easily

:04:09.:04:13.

with Tory backbenchers or the Tories in the House of Lords. Tom. Both

:04:14.:04:21.

would appear superficially to be appealing to traditional left and

:04:22.:04:24.

traditional right bases. What is more Tory than right to buy, then

:04:25.:04:31.

councils sell on these houses, and Labour slapping a massive tax on the

:04:32.:04:39.

city. The Tories' plan, I would say look a bit deeper and all of the

:04:40.:04:42.

Tory narrative from the last six years which hasn't worked well is

:04:43.:04:46.

talking about the private sector increasing supply in the market. Now

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Mrs May is talking about the role for the state after all so this is

:04:52.:04:59.

the shift creeping in. On the Labour transaction tax, one of the most

:05:00.:05:03.

interesting things I heard in days was from Paul Mason, former BBC

:05:04.:05:10.

correspondent, now a cog in Easter extreme. On Newsnight he said don't

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worry about whether the Labour manifesto will add up, I'm promising

:05:14.:05:18.

it will, the bigger Tory attack line should be what on earth will be the

:05:19.:05:25.

macroeconomic effect of taking so much tax out of the system. Very

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well, we shall see. At least we have some policies to talk about.

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Now, on Tuesday Labour will launch its manifesto.

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But we've already got a pretty good idea of what's in it -

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that's because most of its contents were leaked to the media

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Labour has a variety of spending pledges including an extra

:05:41.:05:49.

?6 billion a year for the NHS, an additional ?8 billion for social

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care over the lifetime of the next parliament,

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as well as a ?250 billion in infrastructure over

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The party will support the renewal of the Trident submarine system,

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although any Prime Minister should be extremely cautious

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about its use, and the party will hold a strategic defence

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and security review immediately after the election.

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In terms of immigration, Labour will seek "reasonable

:06:12.:06:13.

management of migration", but it will not make "false

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Elsewhere, university tuition fees will be abolished,

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and the public sector pay cap, which limits pay rises

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for public sector workers to 1%, will be scrapped.

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The party also aims to renationalise the railways, the Royal Mail

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and the National Grid, as well as creating at least one

:06:31.:06:38.

A senior Labour backbencher described it to the Sunday Politics

:06:39.:06:43.

as a manifesto for a leadership who don't "give a toss

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about the wider public", and several other Labour candidates

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told us they thought it had been deliberately

:06:49.:06:50.

leaked by the leadership, with one suggesting

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the leak was intended to "bounce the National Executive"

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And we're joined now from Salford by the Shadow Business Secretary,

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Welcome to the programme. The draft manifesto proposed to renationalise

:07:00.:07:08.

the number of industry. You will wait for the franchises to run out

:07:09.:07:12.

rather than buy them out at the moment so can you confirm the

:07:13.:07:17.

railways will not be wholly nationalised until 2030, after three

:07:18.:07:21.

Labour governments, and Jeremy Corbyn will be 80? I'm not going to

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comment on leaks, you will just have to be patient and wait to see what

:07:28.:07:34.

is in our manifesto. But you have already announced you will

:07:35.:07:38.

nationalise the railways, so tell me about it. We have discussed taking

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the franchises into public ownership as they expire, however the detail

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will be set out in the manifesto so I'm not prepared to go into detail

:07:48.:07:52.

until that policy is formally laid out on Tuesday. That doesn't sound

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very hopeful but let's carry on. You will also nationalise the National

:07:57.:08:03.

Grid, it has a market capitalisation of ?40 billion, why do you want to

:08:04.:08:08.

nationalise that? Again, I'm not going to speculate on leaks, you

:08:09.:08:12.

will just have to be patient. But you said you will nationalise the

:08:13.:08:19.

National Grid so tell's Y. The leaks have suggested but you will just

:08:20.:08:23.

have to wait and see what the final manifesto states on that one. So is

:08:24.:08:27.

it a waste of time me asking you how you will pay for something that

:08:28.:08:32.

costs 40 billion? Be patient, just couple of days to go, but what I

:08:33.:08:37.

would say is there is growing pressure from the public to reform

:08:38.:08:42.

the utilities sector. The Competition and Markets Authority

:08:43.:08:45.

stated in 2015 that bill payers were paying over till debt -- ?2 billion

:08:46.:08:50.

in excess of what they should be paying so there is a clear need for

:08:51.:08:57.

reform. The bills we get are from the energy companies, you are not

:08:58.:09:00.

going to nationalise them, you are going to nationalise the

:09:01.:09:04.

distribution company and I wondered what is the case for nationalising

:09:05.:09:09.

the distribution company? As I said, our full plans will be set out on

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Tuesday. In relation to the big six energy companies, we know in recent

:09:15.:09:17.

years they have been overcharging customers... There's no point in

:09:18.:09:25.

answering questions I am not asking. I am asking what is the case for

:09:26.:09:30.

nationalising the National Grid? There is a case for reforming the

:09:31.:09:34.

energy sector as a whole and that looks at the activities of the big

:09:35.:09:38.

six companies and it will look at other aspects too. You will have to

:09:39.:09:43.

be patient and wait until Tuesday. What about the Royal Mail? Again,

:09:44.:09:50.

you will have to wait until Tuesday. Why can't you just be honest with

:09:51.:09:54.

the British voter? We know you are going to do this and you have a duty

:09:55.:10:02.

to explain. I'm not even arguing whether it is right or wrong. The

:10:03.:10:07.

Royal Mail was sold off and we know it was sold under value and British

:10:08.:10:12.

taxpayers have a reason to feel aggrieved about that. There is a

:10:13.:10:15.

long-term strategy that would ensure the Royal Mail was classified as a

:10:16.:10:19.

key piece of infrastructure but the details of that will be set out in

:10:20.:10:25.

our manifesto because we want to ensure businesses and households

:10:26.:10:27.

ensure the best quality of service when it comes to their postal

:10:28.:10:33.

providers. You plan to borrow an extra 25 billion per year, John

:10:34.:10:37.

McDonnell has already announced this, on public investment, on top

:10:38.:10:42.

of the around 50 billion already being planned for investment. You

:10:43.:10:47.

will borrow it all so that means, if you can confirm, that many years

:10:48.:10:55.

after the crash by 2021, Labour government would still be borrowing

:10:56.:11:01.

75 billion a year. Is that correct? We have set out ?250 billion of

:11:02.:11:08.

capital investment, and ?250 billion for a national investment bank. Our

:11:09.:11:12.

financial and fiscal rules dictate we will leave the Government in a

:11:13.:11:16.

state of less debt than we found it at the start of the parliament so we

:11:17.:11:19.

won't increase the national debt at the end of our Parliamentary term.

:11:20.:11:26.

How can you do that if by 2021 you will still be borrowing around 75

:11:27.:11:30.

billion a year, which is more than we borrow at the moment? The 500

:11:31.:11:36.

billion figure is set out over a period of ten years, it's a figure

:11:37.:11:40.

that has been suggested by Peter Helm from Oxford University as a

:11:41.:11:44.

figure that is necessary to bring us in line with other industrial

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competitors. Similar figures have been suggested by groups such as the

:11:49.:11:56.

CBI. By the way I have not included all 500 billion, just the 250

:11:57.:12:00.

billion on public spending, not the extra money. You talk about the

:12:01.:12:05.

fiscal rules. The draft manifesto said you will leave debt as a

:12:06.:12:10.

proportion of trend GDP law at the end of each parliament, you have

:12:11.:12:17.

just said a version of that. What is trend GDP? In clear terms we will

:12:18.:12:21.

ensure the debt we acquire will be reduced by the end of the

:12:22.:12:25.

parliament. We won't leave the Government finances in a worse state

:12:26.:12:32.

than we found them. OK, but what is trend GDP? Our rule is we will

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ensure public sector net debt is less than we found it when we came

:12:37.:12:40.

to power in Government on June the 8th. But that is not what your draft

:12:41.:12:48.

manifesto says. I'm not going to comment on leaks, you are just going

:12:49.:12:52.

to have to wait until Tuesday to look at the fine detail and perhaps

:12:53.:12:57.

we will have another chat then. You have published your plans for

:12:58.:13:01.

corporation tax and you will increase it by a third and your

:13:02.:13:05.

predictions assumed that will get an extra 20 billion a year by the end

:13:06.:13:10.

of the parliament. But that assumes the companies don't change their

:13:11.:13:14.

behaviour, that they move money around, they leave the country or

:13:15.:13:19.

they generate smaller profits. Is that realistic? You are right to

:13:20.:13:24.

make that point and you will see when we set out our policies and

:13:25.:13:28.

costings in the manifesto that we haven't spent all of the tax take.

:13:29.:13:33.

We have allowed for different differentials and potential changes

:13:34.:13:36.

in market activity because that would be approved and direction to

:13:37.:13:41.

take. But corporation tax is allowed to be cut in France and the United

:13:42.:13:49.

States, it's only 12.5% in Dublin. Many companies based in Britain are

:13:50.:13:52.

already wondering whether they should relocate because of Brexit,

:13:53.:13:57.

if you increase this tax by a third couldn't that clinch it for a number

:13:58.:14:02.

of them? No, we will still be one of the lowest corporation tax rate in

:14:03.:14:07.

the G7. Let's look at what's important for business. Cutting

:14:08.:14:12.

corporation tax in itself doesn't improve productivity, or business

:14:13.:14:16.

investment and there's no suggestion cutting corporation tax in recent

:14:17.:14:19.

years has achieved that. Businesses need an investment in tools in

:14:20.:14:25.

things they need to thrive and prosper, they also need to reduce

:14:26.:14:29.

the burden at the lower end of the tax scale, before we get to the

:14:30.:14:34.

Prophet stage. One key example is business rates. We have made the

:14:35.:14:42.

proposal to government to in -- exclude machinery so businesses can

:14:43.:14:45.

invest and grow operations in the future but the Government refused.

:14:46.:14:52.

Corporation tax has been cut since 2010. When it was 28% it brought in

:14:53.:15:02.

?43 billion a year. Now it is down to 20%, it brought in ?55 billion a

:15:03.:15:08.

year. By cutting it in the last year, it brought in 21% more, so

:15:09.:15:15.

what is the problem? It might have brought in more money, but has it

:15:16.:15:19.

increased business investment in the long term. It is not just about

:15:20.:15:25.

cutting corporation tax, but it is on the ability of businesses to

:15:26.:15:28.

thrive and prosper. Business investment in the UK is below are

:15:29.:15:34.

industrial competitors. Wages are stagnating which doesn't indicate

:15:35.:15:41.

businesses are not doing well. Let me get it right, you are arguing if

:15:42.:15:46.

we increase business tax by a third, that will increase investment? I am

:15:47.:15:53.

not saying that. You just did. Know I didn't, I said reducing business

:15:54.:16:01.

tax isn't enough, you have to invest in the things businesses need to

:16:02.:16:04.

thrive and prosper. You have also got to lessen the burden on

:16:05.:16:16.

business. You have announced a financial transaction tax. Your own

:16:17.:16:20.

labour Mayor of London said he has vowed to fight it. He said I do not

:16:21.:16:26.

want a unilateral tax on business in our city, so why are you proceeding

:16:27.:16:31.

with it? This isn't a new initiative, there is a growing

:16:32.:16:35.

global pressure to make sure we have fairness in the financial sector.

:16:36.:16:39.

Ordinary British people are paying for our banking crisis they didn't

:16:40.:16:45.

cause. Another important point, stamp duty reserve tax was brought

:16:46.:16:50.

in in the 1600 and there have been little reforms. The sector has

:16:51.:16:54.

changed and we have do provide changes to the system for that

:16:55.:16:59.

change. High-frequency trading where we have a state of affairs where a

:17:00.:17:03.

lot of shares are traded on computers within milliseconds. We

:17:04.:17:08.

need a tax system that keeps up with that. What happens if they move the

:17:09.:17:15.

computers to another country? Emily Thornaby said this morning, other

:17:16.:17:20.

countries had already introduced a financial transaction tax, what

:17:21.:17:22.

other countries have done that? There are ten countries looking at

:17:23.:17:31.

introducing a transaction tax. Which ones have done it so far? They will

:17:32.:17:38.

be later announcing a final package, going through the finer detail at

:17:39.:17:42.

the moment. But the European Commission tried to get this done in

:17:43.:17:47.

2011 and it still hasn't happened in any of these countries. But you are

:17:48.:17:52.

going to go ahead unilaterally and risk these businesses, which

:17:53.:17:56.

generate a lot of money, moving to other jurisdictions. There is not a

:17:57.:18:01.

significant risk of that happening. The stamp duty reserve tax is levied

:18:02.:18:12.

at either where the person or company is domiciled or where the

:18:13.:18:16.

instrument is issued rather than worth the transaction takes place.

:18:17.:18:22.

This tax in itself is not enough to make people leave this country in

:18:23.:18:25.

terms of financial services because there is more to keep these

:18:26.:18:29.

businesses here in terms of the investment we are making, the

:18:30.:18:34.

economy that Labour will build, in terms of productivity improvement we

:18:35.:18:38.

will see. Thank you very much, Rebecca Long-Bailey.

:18:39.:18:42.

And listening to that was the Home Office Minister, Brandon Lewis.

:18:43.:18:48.

Over the years, you have got corporation tax by 20%, it is lower

:18:49.:18:54.

than international standards, so why are so many global companies who

:18:55.:19:01.

make money out of Great Britain, still not paying 20%? It is one of

:19:02.:19:06.

the problems with the point Labour were making and Rebecca could not

:19:07.:19:09.

answer, these companies can move around the world. One of the

:19:10.:19:15.

important things is having a low tax economy but these businesses, it

:19:16.:19:18.

encourages them to come at a rate they are prepared to pay. People may

:19:19.:19:24.

say they are right, if they were paying 19, 20% incorporation tax.

:19:25.:19:30.

But they are not. Google runs a multi-million pound corporation and

:19:31.:19:39.

did not pay anywhere near 20%. There are companies that are trading

:19:40.:19:42.

internationally and that is why we have to get this work done with our

:19:43.:19:51.

partners around the world. Has there been an improvement? It is more than

:19:52.:19:55.

they were paying before. Whether it is Google or any other company,

:19:56.:19:59.

alongside them being here, apart from the tax they pay, it is the

:20:00.:20:05.

people they employ. The deal was, if you cut the business tax, the

:20:06.:20:09.

corporation tax on profits, we would get more companies coming here and

:20:10.:20:14.

more companies paying their tax. It seems it doesn't matter how low, a

:20:15.:20:18.

number of companies just pay a derisory amount and you haven't been

:20:19.:20:24.

able to change that. As you outlined, the income taken from the

:20:25.:20:27.

changing corporation tax has gone up. That is from established British

:20:28.:20:34.

companies, not from these international companies. It is

:20:35.:20:38.

because more companies are coming here and paying tax. That is a good

:20:39.:20:42.

thing. There is always more to do and that is why we want to crack

:20:43.:20:48.

down. In the last few weeks in the Finnish Parliament, Labour refused

:20:49.:20:52.

to put to another ?8.7 billion of tax take we could have got by

:20:53.:20:57.

cracking down further. You claim to have made great progress on cracking

:20:58.:21:03.

down on people and companies to pay the tax they should. But the tax gap

:21:04.:21:08.

is the difference between what HMRC takes in and what it should take in.

:21:09.:21:13.

It has barely moved in five years, so where is the progress? He have

:21:14.:21:20.

brought in 150 billion more where we have cracked down on those tax

:21:21.:21:24.

schemes. The gap is still the same as it was five years ago. It's gone

:21:25.:21:34.

from 6.8, 26.5. It has gone down. The Prime Minister and the

:21:35.:21:36.

Chancellor said they want to continue work on to get more money

:21:37.:21:41.

on these companies while still having a competitive rate to

:21:42.:21:47.

encourage these companies. While big business and the wealthy continue to

:21:48.:21:52.

prosper, the Office for Budget Responsibility tell us those on

:21:53.:21:55.

average earnings in this country will be earning less in real terms

:21:56.:22:01.

by 2021 than they did in 2008. How can that be fair? I don't see it

:22:02.:22:06.

that way. I haven't seen the figures you have got. What I can say to you,

:22:07.:22:11.

Andrew, we have made sure the minimum wage has gone up, the actual

:22:12.:22:16.

income tax people pay has gone down. So in their pocket, real terms,

:22:17.:22:26.

people have more money. You are the self-styled party of work. We keep

:22:27.:22:28.

emphasising work. Under your government you can work for 13 years

:22:29.:22:32.

and still not earn any more at the end of it, and you did at the start.

:22:33.:22:38.

Where is the reward for effort in that? I have not seen those figures.

:22:39.:22:44.

There are 2.8 million more people, more jobs in economy than there was.

:22:45.:22:50.

1000 jobs every day and people are working and developing through their

:22:51.:22:54.

careers. This is what I thought was odd in what Rebecca was saying,

:22:55.:22:58.

investing in people is what the apprenticeship levy is about,

:22:59.:23:02.

companies are investing their works force to take more opportunities

:23:03.:23:08.

that there. We are talking about fairness, politicians talk about

:23:09.:23:11.

hard-working people and we know the average earnings are no higher than

:23:12.:23:16.

they were in 2008. We know the pay and bonuses of senior executives

:23:17.:23:21.

have continued to grow and the Institute for Fiscal Studies has

:23:22.:23:24.

shown 3 million of the poorest households will lose an average of

:23:25.:23:29.

?2500 a year in the next Parliament, benefits frozen, further sanctions

:23:30.:23:35.

kick in. 3 million of the poorest losing 2500. Under the Tories, one

:23:36.:23:40.

law for the rich and another for the poor. It is quite wrong. First of

:23:41.:23:46.

all, we have got to be fair to the taxpayer who is funding the welfare

:23:47.:23:51.

and benefit system. Which is why the welfare was right. Get more people

:23:52.:23:56.

in work and then it is important to get more people upscaling. As that

:23:57.:24:04.

allowance rises, people have more of the money they earn in their pocket

:24:05.:24:08.

to be able to use in the economy. People will be worse off. 2500,

:24:09.:24:15.

among the poorest already. They will have more money in their pocket as

:24:16.:24:21.

we increase the allowance before people pay tax. We have seen

:24:22.:24:27.

millions of people coming out of tax altogether. The reason I ask these

:24:28.:24:31.

questions, you and the Prime Minister go on and on about the just

:24:32.:24:36.

about managing classes. I am talking about the just about managing and

:24:37.:24:40.

below that. It is all talk, you haven't done anything for them. We

:24:41.:24:44.

have made sure they have an increasing minimum wage, it has gone

:24:45.:24:49.

up more under us than any other previous government. Their wages

:24:50.:24:55.

will be still lower in real terms. Let me come on to this plan for

:24:56.:25:00.

housing. We have announced a new plan to increase affordable housing,

:25:01.:25:05.

social housing, some council housing and social housing built by the

:25:06.:25:09.

associations. How much money is behind this? It is part of the 1.4

:25:10.:25:13.

billion announced in the Autumn Statement. How many homes will you

:25:14.:25:21.

get for 1.4 billion? That depends on the negotiations with local

:25:22.:25:23.

authorities. It is local authorities, who know the area best.

:25:24.:25:31.

I will not put a number on that. 1.4 billion, if you price the house at

:25:32.:25:35.

100,000, which is very low, particularly for the South, back at

:25:36.:25:41.

you 14,000 new homes. That is it. What we have seen before, how the

:25:42.:25:46.

local government can leveraged to build thousands more homes. That is

:25:47.:25:49.

what we want to see across the country. It is not just about the

:25:50.:25:54.

money, for a lot of local authorities it is about the

:25:55.:25:57.

expertise and knowledge on how to do this. That is why support from the

:25:58.:26:03.

housing communities minister will help. What is the timescale, how

:26:04.:26:09.

many more affordable homes will be built? I will not put a number on

:26:10.:26:14.

it. You announced it today, so you cannot tell me how many more or what

:26:15.:26:19.

the target is? It is a matter of working with the local authorities

:26:20.:26:22.

who know what their local needs are, what land they have got available.

:26:23.:26:26.

What we saw through the local elections with the Metro mayors,

:26:27.:26:30.

they want to deliver in their areas, whether it is the West of England,

:26:31.:26:34.

the north-east, Liverpool, Manchester and we want to work with

:26:35.:26:39.

them. You have said variations of this for the past seven years and I

:26:40.:26:43.

want some credibility. When you cannot tell us how much money, what

:26:44.:26:49.

the target and timescale is, and this government, under which

:26:50.:26:52.

affordable house building has fallen to a 24 year low. 1.2 million

:26:53.:26:58.

families are on waiting lists for social housing to rent. That is your

:26:59.:27:04.

record. Why should we believe a word you say? This is different to what

:27:05.:27:08.

we have been doing over the last two years. We want to develop and have a

:27:09.:27:13.

strong and stable economy that can sustain that 1.4 billion homes. This

:27:14.:27:20.

is important. In 2010, we inherited the lowest level of house building,

:27:21.:27:26.

75,000 new homes. That is about 189,000 over the last four years.

:27:27.:27:31.

That is a big step forward after the crash, getting people back into the

:27:32.:27:35.

industry. More first-time buyers onto the market. Final question, in

:27:36.:27:46.

2010, 2011, your first year in government, there were 60,000

:27:47.:27:51.

affordable homes built. May not be enough, but last day it was 30 2000.

:27:52.:27:59.

So why should we trust anything you say about this? On housing, we have

:28:00.:28:06.

delivered. We have delivered more social housing. Double what Labour

:28:07.:28:12.

did in 13 years, in just five years. This is what this policy is about,

:28:13.:28:16.

working with local authorities to deliver more homes to people in

:28:17.:28:17.

their local areas. Thank you. Now, they have a deficit

:28:18.:28:21.

of between 15 and 20% in the polls, but Jeremy Corbyn and those

:28:22.:28:24.

around him insist Labour can win. If the polls are right they've got

:28:25.:28:27.

three and half weeks to change voters' minds and persuade those

:28:28.:28:30.

fabled undecided voters We enlisted the polling organisation

:28:31.:28:32.

YouGov to help us find out how the performance of party leaders

:28:33.:28:37.

will affect behaviour Leeds, a city of three quarters

:28:38.:28:39.

of a million people, eight Parliamentary seats and home

:28:40.:28:48.

to our very own focus group. Our panel was recruited

:28:49.:28:53.

from a variety of backgrounds and the majority say they haven't

:28:54.:28:56.

decided who to vote for yet. Watching behind the glass,

:28:57.:29:00.

two experts on different sides Giles Cunningham, who headed up

:29:01.:29:02.

political press at Downing Street under David Cameron

:29:03.:29:09.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbin supporter, under David Cameron

:29:10.:29:15.

and Aaron Bastani, Corbyn supporter, I think Theresa May sees herself

:29:16.:29:17.

as a pound shop Thatcher. Milliband's policies but when it

:29:18.:29:22.

came about who you want,

:29:23.:29:42.

if you wake up on maybe a 2015, We found in a couple of focus

:29:43.:29:46.

groups, people saying we'd be quite relieved,

:29:47.:29:49.

even though some of those same people have been saying we quite

:29:50.:29:52.

like the Labour policies. I think the fact that Corbyn's

:29:53.:29:54.

going so hard on his values, this is a really progressive

:29:55.:29:59.

manifesto, they live But I think that's a new challenge,

:30:00.:30:00.

that wasn't there in 2015. Is there anyone here that

:30:01.:30:05.

you don't recognise? After a little warm up,

:30:06.:30:07.

the first exercise, recognising I think it's nice to have a strong

:30:08.:30:09.

woman in politics, I do. But I've got to say,

:30:10.:30:15.

when she comes on the news, I kind of do think,

:30:16.:30:18.

here we go again. Tell me about Tim Farron, what

:30:19.:30:20.

are your impressions of Tim Farron? It isn't going to do anything,

:30:21.:30:23.

it isn't going to change anything. You'll be surprised to hear it's

:30:24.:30:28.

actually the Greens. Strong and stable leadership

:30:29.:30:36.

in the national interest. Yes, Team May, it's

:30:37.:30:49.

the British equivalent of make What do we think about this one

:30:50.:30:53.

for the many and not the few? It's not quite as bad

:30:54.:31:03.

as strong and stable, but it will probably get

:31:04.:31:06.

on our nerves after a while. We must seize that chance today

:31:07.:31:08.

and every day until June the 8th. But that's not quite my

:31:09.:31:19.

question, my question is, if you are Prime Minister,

:31:20.:31:26.

we will leave, come hell or high water, whatever is on the table

:31:27.:31:29.

at the end of the negotiations? If we win the election,

:31:30.:31:32.

we'll get a good deal with Europe. Assertive and in control

:31:33.:31:35.

and he felt comfortable But the second one, I thought

:31:36.:31:37.

he was very hesitant. I thought he was kind of,

:31:38.:31:42.

hovering around, skirting around and that's the second

:31:43.:31:51.

time I've seen a similar interview with the question

:31:52.:31:54.

being asked regarding Brexit. I don't think I'd have

:31:55.:31:55.

any confidence with him You think you are going up

:31:56.:31:57.

against some quite strong people, how are you going to stand

:31:58.:32:01.

up for us? When you are in negotiations,

:32:02.:32:03.

you need to be tough. And actually is right

:32:04.:32:08.

to be tough sometimes, particularly when you are doing

:32:09.:32:10.

something for the country. There's a reason for talking

:32:11.:32:12.

about strong and stable leadership. It's about the future

:32:13.:32:15.

of the country, it's It's just that people kind of listen

:32:16.:32:17.

to that kind of thing and think Both on The One Show

:32:18.:32:21.

and in the news. She attracts the public better

:32:22.:32:27.

than what Corbyn does. She didn't answer the question

:32:28.:32:33.

in a more articular way than Corbyn Imagine that Theresa

:32:34.:32:36.

May is an animal. So, in your minds,

:32:37.:32:42.

what animal is coming to mind I've done a Pekinese because I think

:32:43.:32:45.

she's all bark and no bite. Alpaca because she's

:32:46.:32:59.

superior looking and woolly I don't think his policies

:33:00.:33:05.

are for the modern, real world. A mouse because they are weak

:33:06.:33:21.

and they can be easily bullied, but also they can catch

:33:22.:33:24.

you by surprise if you're What do you take away

:33:25.:33:27.

from what you saw then, and what message would you send back

:33:28.:33:35.

to the Tories now? I think what came over is people see

:33:36.:33:38.

Theresa May as a strong politician, not everyone likes her,

:33:39.:33:41.

but you don't need to be liked to be elected,

:33:42.:33:43.

because ultimately it's about who do you trust with your future

:33:44.:33:46.

and your security. I think what I also take out

:33:47.:33:48.

of that focus group, was it was a group of floating

:33:49.:33:50.

voters, there was no huge appetite for the Lib Dems and there was no

:33:51.:33:53.

huge appetite for Ukip. So my messaged back to CCHQ

:33:54.:33:56.

would be stick to the plan. I thought the response

:33:57.:33:59.

to the manifesto was excellent. It's clear that people aren't

:34:00.:34:03.

particularly keen on Theresa May, There are some associations with her

:34:04.:34:05.

about strength and stability, which is exactly what the Tory party

:34:06.:34:10.

want of course, but they are not positive and nobody thinks

:34:11.:34:13.

that she has a vision So, what I'd say the Jeremy Corbyn,

:34:14.:34:15.

what I'd say to the Labour Party is, they need to really emphasise

:34:16.:34:22.

the manifesto in Jeremy Corbyn himself has to perform

:34:23.:34:24.

out of his skin and I think he has to reemphasise those

:34:25.:34:30.

characteristics which may be have come to the fore may be

:34:31.:34:32.

over the last 12 months, resilience, strength and the fact

:34:33.:34:35.

that he's come this far, why not take that final step and go

:34:36.:34:37.

into ten Downing Street? We're joined now by the American

:34:38.:34:40.

political consultant For the sake of this discussion,

:34:41.:34:48.

assume the polls at the moment are broadly right, is there any hope for

:34:49.:34:55.

Mr Corbyn in the undecided voters? Know, and this is a very serious

:34:56.:35:01.

collection with serious consequences to who wins. Nobody cares whether

:35:02.:35:04.

you can draw and what animal they represent, they want to know where

:35:05.:35:09.

they stand, and I felt that was frivolous. I come to Britain to

:35:10.:35:13.

watch elections because I learned from here. Your elections are more

:35:14.:35:18.

substantial, more serious, more policy and less about personality

:35:19.:35:22.

and that peace was only about personality. That's partly because

:35:23.:35:27.

Mrs May has decided to make this a presidential election. You can see

:35:28.:35:36.

on the posters it is all Team May. I agree with that, and in her language

:35:37.:35:44.

she says not everyone benefits from a Conservative government, I don't

:35:45.:35:48.

see how using anything Republicans have used in the past. In fact her

:35:49.:35:53.

campaign is more of a centrist Democrats but it is a smart strategy

:35:54.:35:57.

because it pushes Corbyn further to the left. Of course you said Hillary

:35:58.:36:03.

Clinton have won. On election night the polling was so bad in America,

:36:04.:36:07.

the exit polls that were done, the BBC told America she had won. No, I

:36:08.:36:14.

was anchoring the programme that night, I ignored your tweet. The BBC

:36:15.:36:22.

had the same numbers. Yes, but we did not say she had won, I can

:36:23.:36:26.

assure you of that. Because of people like you we thought she had

:36:27.:36:32.

but we didn't broadcast it. That was a smart approach. My point is other

:36:33.:36:39.

than teasing you, maybe there is hope for Jeremy Corbyn. I think you

:36:40.:36:44.

will have one of the lowest turnout in modern history and I think Labour

:36:45.:36:49.

will fall to one of the lowest percentages, not percentage of

:36:50.:36:53.

number of seats they have had, and this will be a matter of

:36:54.:36:56.

soul-searching for both political parties. What you do with a sizeable

:36:57.:37:02.

majority, and she has a responsibility to tell the British

:37:03.:37:05.

people exactly what happens as she moves forward. He and Labour will

:37:06.:37:11.

have to take a look at whether they still represent a significant slice

:37:12.:37:16.

of the British population. Do you see a realignment in British

:37:17.:37:21.

politics taking place? I see a crumbling of the left and yet there

:37:22.:37:25.

is still a significant percentage of the British population that once

:37:26.:37:29.

someone who is centre-left. And they like a lot of Mr Corbyn's policies.

:37:30.:37:38.

I'm listening to Michael foot. I went to school here in the 1980s and

:37:39.:37:41.

I feel like I'm watching the Labour Party of 35 years ago, in a

:37:42.:37:44.

population that wants to focus on the future, not the past. Thank you.

:37:45.:37:50.

It's just gone 11.35, you're watching the Sunday Politics.

:37:51.:37:52.

We say goodbye to viewers in Scotland, who leave us now

:37:53.:37:55.

Welcome to Sunday Politics here in the west, on a sunny

:37:56.:38:07.

and breezy morning - perfect weather to be

:38:08.:38:09.

We have guests of many political colours -

:38:10.:38:14.

Would they stand a better chance of defeating the Conservatives?

:38:15.:38:19.

Or is that theory just a pile of, erm, manure?

:38:20.:38:24.

They are the Conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, Helen Belcher

:38:25.:38:28.

from the Lib Dems, Sarah Church from Labour.

:38:29.:38:32.

But first, Mrs May called this election because -

:38:33.:38:41.

And one industry that has much to gain or lose from leaving the EU

:38:42.:38:46.

Robin Markwell is at a food fair in Bristol for us this morning.

:38:47.:39:01.

good morning, David. They say you should never talk politics at the

:39:02.:39:06.

dinner table, I don't know that applies to food fairs. The doors

:39:07.:39:12.

have just opened people are starting to streaming and there are all sorts

:39:13.:39:18.

of wares on Opera. -- on offer. Garlic mushrooms, some Thai food...

:39:19.:39:26.

Vintage tearooms here from 1946, you can see from the patriotic bunting

:39:27.:39:33.

that it's going back to the 1940s. My melon soup, Pam and Tony, good as

:39:34.:39:38.

you buy. A couple of stories to tell. You work through the

:39:39.:39:43.

Antipodean sommelier, just tell us what you do? Yellow two we we import

:39:44.:39:52.

Australian wines and to various distributors around the country. The

:39:53.:39:58.

drop in Stirling, how had infected your business? It is huge, in 2015,

:39:59.:40:06.

we be looking at $32 to the pound, pre-Brexit, it was 22. At an

:40:07.:40:17.

increasing goods to us for about 28%, that tough to get over. Macro

:40:18.:40:30.

and yet he still back Brexit? I believe if the negotiation isn't

:40:31.:40:34.

working, then you change the game. I would have expected various parties

:40:35.:40:36.

to get their heads together and perhaps do something about it, but

:40:37.:40:41.

it seems like people are polarised, which I don't think it is a good

:40:42.:40:44.

thing. I am pretty pleased about last week's French election ready

:40:45.:40:53.

for Mike didn't get in. Your family spoil pig, a bacon supplier, how is

:40:54.:41:02.

Brexit affected you? We're based in Devon, so we are on using British,

:41:03.:41:06.

outdoor reared pigs, but we do have our slicing equipment, that's

:41:07.:41:10.

jamming equipment if we need to update that it will have an effect.

:41:11.:41:20.

-- slicing equipment. Dunn as you voted remain, you are having second

:41:21.:41:25.

thoughts? I am not completely certain. I think being in Europe is

:41:26.:41:33.

stronger for Europe but as Tony said, we are we are, and we got to

:41:34.:41:38.

get on with it. Having a strong leadership is really important.

:41:39.:41:42.

Brexit could change about them? Tony, how are you back? I will vote

:41:43.:41:50.

the way I always have. My background is economic 's, so I will vote for

:41:51.:41:56.

the party that will allocate resources most efficiently. Pam and

:41:57.:42:02.

Tony, two different flavours at this delicious election.

:42:03.:42:06.

Jacob, food prices are up, inflation is up.

:42:07.:42:11.

Food prices are up the value of the pound is down.

:42:12.:42:14.

We're only seeing the beginning of the economic problems caused

:42:15.:42:18.

I think it was a very important point about New Zealand wine. The

:42:19.:42:27.

price may have gone up 28%, but the tariff that we play as a member of

:42:28.:42:33.

the EU is over 30%. So, once we are out of the EU, even with the fall in

:42:34.:42:37.

the pound, New Zealand wine can be cheaper and that is one of the

:42:38.:42:43.

advantages are Brexit. As it happens I prefer French wine. I'm very

:42:44.:42:47.

traditional. So it's not go to make a difference to me. New Zealand

:42:48.:42:55.

wine, Australian wine, Chilean wine, all of those will be cheaper because

:42:56.:43:00.

we weren't happy have EU tax. That a bit of a let them eat cake argument,

:43:01.:43:06.

isn't it? No, it applies to other foodstuffs as well. We can get

:43:07.:43:11.

cheaper beef from the United States and from Australia and from

:43:12.:43:17.

Argentina. The advantages of leaving come from the reduction in terrorist

:43:18.:43:30.

-- tariffs which reduce basic rates on staples. Less need for food

:43:31.:43:38.

banks? Food banks are good way of providing temporary support people

:43:39.:43:41.

in financial difficulties. Certainly nothing to do with the European

:43:42.:43:45.

Union. I would like to pursue that, and ensure we will before the

:43:46.:43:46.

election but will move on. Sarah, can you simply spell out

:43:47.:43:48.

what Labour's position on Brexit is? What I would say is that we have to

:43:49.:44:03.

have a construction approach, not a convert of approach. I do think

:44:04.:44:06.

saying that we will crash out regardless of the deal. You had the

:44:07.:44:10.

gentleman on the peace they are saying that all the options have to

:44:11.:44:14.

remain on the table and it may be at the Abbey temporary arrangement

:44:15.:44:19.

where we are able to make sure that we don't crash out of the single

:44:20.:44:22.

market and the customs union before sorting out all of our trade deals.

:44:23.:44:27.

Coming from Swindon, where we have 10,000 jobs reliant on access to the

:44:28.:44:30.

single market in some way, whether it is to do with access to research

:44:31.:44:41.

grants to enter contests in an economy it's important to look at

:44:42.:44:47.

what we need to achieve and not, as I said,... So what would be a good

:44:48.:44:52.

deal? A good deal would be one in which we have some access to the

:44:53.:44:57.

single market. Immigration is a topic that we have doing gave John,

:44:58.:45:07.

we can shy away from it. The feedback we get very clearly from

:45:08.:45:10.

across the country is that immigration has to match demand. You

:45:11.:45:14.

want access to the single market but not the strings that come with it,

:45:15.:45:18.

which is normally immigration? I'm which is normally immigration? I'm

:45:19.:45:20.

not saying that we have full access and full freedom of movement, I want

:45:21.:45:24.

guarantees for EU nationals who already live your and what is clear

:45:25.:45:32.

do with jobs in the economy. Certain do with jobs in the economy. Certain

:45:33.:45:36.

sectors of the economy need to bring workers in from outside and they are

:45:37.:45:40.

not putting British workers to one side to do that, then that is fine.

:45:41.:45:43.

At the moment we have a crisis in At the moment we have a crisis in

:45:44.:45:47.

recruiting nurses and going to India to do it. What do you make of Ukip?

:45:48.:46:06.

Your dentist to these indicators. -- you are going to see the indicators.

:46:07.:46:11.

Until the ink is dry we again to get speculation and instability. How do

:46:12.:46:18.

you know that people voted for a hard Brexit? It's just about leaving

:46:19.:46:29.

be like Norway, countless times. You be like Norway, countless times. You

:46:30.:46:34.

area where you pay in bed then you area where you pay in bed then you

:46:35.:46:39.

have to accept free movement? News Letter I'm of the mindset that you

:46:40.:46:43.

need to get out of the isolationist, protectionism of the European Union.

:46:44.:46:47.

I came to agree with Jacob around that. The tariffs that are imposed

:46:48.:46:54.

by that if we should no longer be part of. But enough sovereignty over

:46:55.:46:59.

our borders and our laws, that would I know a lot of people voted for in

:47:00.:47:04.

my neck and the having overwhelming percentage of people that voted for

:47:05.:47:11.

that. Alan, this sounds like paradise with a limp Dems? What's

:47:12.:47:19.

not to like. Well you're not also in products after exporting stuff and

:47:20.:47:22.

we explored a lot of red meat. So exporting beef to the EU is around

:47:23.:47:27.

70%. So suddenly a huge chunk of our export market becomes a lot harder.

:47:28.:47:31.

We're seeing me in fact of the We're seeing me in fact of the

:47:32.:47:34.

falling pound, increased food prices here. That isn't to be a short-term

:47:35.:47:39.

impact it may end up being a long impact but exporting becomes a lot

:47:40.:47:42.

harder for us if we are going to export to the European Union. That

:47:43.:47:45.

is a major market for us. What is the reaction to this when Tim Farron

:47:46.:47:55.

goes around in an area which rated generally for Brexit? I think

:47:56.:48:00.

whatever people voted for, leave remain, people are worried about

:48:01.:48:05.

what the deal actually is. I think as Liberal democrats we have taken a

:48:06.:48:12.

clear position on that deal. At the moment the election is the

:48:13.:48:14.

Conservatives saying, trust us we can sort it out. But it is vague.

:48:15.:48:20.

There is no detail. Let's bring this back to you too, Jacob. If do you

:48:21.:48:27.

think that by going through the selection, if there were a large

:48:28.:48:31.

Conservative majority as the newspapers are saying, would mean a

:48:32.:48:38.

Brexiteers, high Brexiteers like you and Liam Fox and David Davis and all

:48:39.:48:41.

the rest of them would be marginalised? And actually, Mrs May

:48:42.:48:47.

could do the deal that she wants to do which could be quite a soft one?

:48:48.:48:53.

I agree with Daniel that the hard and soft Brexit is Miss phraseology.

:48:54.:49:02.

-- Miss phraseology. We are leaving the European Union, it's neither

:49:03.:49:05.

hard soft, we're leaving. In terms of the consequences for people like

:49:06.:49:12.

me who campaign for Brexit I don't think that analogy applies. The

:49:13.:49:17.

overwhelming majority of members of Parliament were in favour of

:49:18.:49:20.

remaining within the European Union. There were about 150 year putt MPs

:49:21.:49:29.

who are in favour of leaving. Had she wanted to moralising marginalise

:49:30.:49:36.

us she would have done so anew last Parliament. We weren't going to get

:49:37.:49:40.

the SNP to support us, we weren't get the Lib Dems to supporters or

:49:41.:49:49.

the label to party -- Labour Party. They only needed ten of them to

:49:50.:49:52.

defeat the government to defeat the dog putt so had Mrs May wanted some

:49:53.:49:58.

terrible fudge, she would have advised to keep the last Parliament.

:49:59.:50:03.

If she is successful, what sort of breakfast will she get? She has said

:50:04.:50:14.

it sat on a Brexit. Enough of this coalition of chaos because we must

:50:15.:50:16.

move on. Thursday marked the closing

:50:17.:50:18.

date for prospective MPs The Tories, Lib Dems and Labour

:50:19.:50:20.

are contesting all 31 So, were deals done behind closed

:50:21.:50:24.

doors for political favours? Cheltenham in all her

:50:25.:50:32.

regency glory... Will you tell me who you

:50:33.:50:43.

going to vote for in This seat was taken

:50:44.:50:47.

by the Tories in 2015. But opposition parties are hoping

:50:48.:50:53.

for a blossoming of support. The Greens, Labour and Lib Dems

:50:54.:51:04.

helped each other out, we understand, in the local

:51:05.:51:09.

elections - although, The Lib Dems, though, could now see

:51:10.:51:13.

some support go to the Greens. They're standing for

:51:14.:51:19.

the general election Despite, they say, making overtures

:51:20.:51:22.

to Labour and the Lib Dems. Perhaps the Lib Dems were burnt

:51:23.:51:29.

by their last deal - the coalition. It's really important, I think,

:51:30.:51:34.

that people of all parties work together and don't live

:51:35.:51:37.

in their tribes. I really enjoyed, during

:51:38.:51:39.

the referendum last year, sharing a battlebus with Sadiq Khan,

:51:40.:51:43.

Ruth Davidson, Caroline Lucas, and it's great that politicians

:51:44.:51:46.

exist outside their tribes OK, but he says his party's

:51:47.:51:51.

job is to win seats. What do you think about the fact

:51:52.:51:58.

Greens are standing in Cheltenham, Well, I just hope it doesn't,

:51:59.:52:02.

but it is their right, isn't it? Because the essence of democracy

:52:03.:52:08.

is that you have a choice and it's Cheltenham is the only

:52:09.:52:21.

seat in Gloucestershire where Ukip is not standing,

:52:22.:52:25.

and that could help the Tories here. It's a similar story

:52:26.:52:27.

in Bristol in Somerset. Ukip is only fighting a handful

:52:28.:52:29.

of seats and are clear, in some cases, that this

:52:30.:52:33.

is to help the Tories. I actually believe that we should

:52:34.:52:36.

have politics where people work together and not pick

:52:37.:52:48.

at each other all the time. I do agree with him, because that is

:52:49.:52:50.

a perversion of democracy. You're perverting the

:52:51.:52:53.

course of democracy. If you do those deals,

:52:54.:52:54.

and stand down? I'm afraid so, but I did say

:52:55.:52:56.

I would do a deal with the Tories. We wont stand in Cheltenham

:52:57.:53:00.

if they don't stand Deal or no deal, the

:53:01.:53:02.

candidates are now set. So, Daniel, why are Ukip only

:53:03.:53:09.

standing in fewer than half Well, we don't have the funding

:53:10.:53:27.

capacity that some of the parties have. When not funded by investment

:53:28.:53:33.

bankers are trade unions are things like this. To the centre some of the

:53:34.:53:40.

other parties. You could afford a couple of quid for a candidate or

:53:41.:53:47.

two? Look at the political spectrum and you have the Goliath that is the

:53:48.:53:49.

Tory party and we are a small party Tory party and we are a small party

:53:50.:53:54.

and we rely on the contributions of come people coming up to us on the

:53:55.:54:03.

streets making donations. Well, you got a little donation from Peter

:54:04.:54:06.

Hargreaves, he contributed millions to the Brexit campaign. Going back

:54:07.:54:13.

to the point about why we are filming candidates where we are

:54:14.:54:16.

fielding candidates, there are no deals being done, we are not in the

:54:17.:54:19.

business of making deals. We tried to fight where we think we can win.

:54:20.:54:26.

With limited resources, you have to be tactical about where you are

:54:27.:54:30.

going to put your eggs in the basket? These are areas where we had

:54:31.:54:37.

tremendous amounts of Lea support and that's where we are campaigning.

:54:38.:54:39.

Jacob, do you think it's right that Ukip stand aside

:54:40.:54:42.

there wasn't the need for one there wasn't the need for one

:54:43.:54:55.

because Mrs May has united what you might call the broad Tory family. In

:54:56.:55:00.

my own area, North Somerset, a lot of people who backed Ukip are

:55:01.:55:01.

returning to the Conservative Party. returning to the Conservative Party.

:55:02.:55:07.

Brexit has been voted through and their main political aim has been

:55:08.:55:10.

achieved. That is a really difficult problem for Ukip as a party. Palin?

:55:11.:55:28.

Helen? The Tories have become blue-chip. There are a bunch of

:55:29.:55:33.

people who I would have called natural Tories were very

:55:34.:55:34.

uncomfortable about the way that the uncomfortable about the way that the

:55:35.:55:37.

party is going. They are now looking for other options. Are they looking

:55:38.:55:46.

to the Greens would ever to try and get this Progressive Alliance. My

:55:47.:55:49.

problem with the progressive alliances it paints politics into a

:55:50.:55:54.

conservative and anti-Conservative position. It's much more, kidnapped.

:55:55.:56:04.

-- it's much more, located the mat. If it's much more, located them

:56:05.:56:06.

that. Sarah? I do agree that it's a that. Sarah? I do agree that it's a

:56:07.:56:17.

shame people end up having to make deals because our voting system only

:56:18.:56:21.

allows one of two people to win. The Labour Party is not making deals. We

:56:22.:56:25.

have got a very strong set of policies that we want people to have

:56:26.:56:30.

the choice to vote on. When I am talking to people there is, I'm

:56:31.:56:36.

sorry to have to say this, very little relevance for Ukip now,

:56:37.:56:39.

because people are voting Conservative. They want to see a

:56:40.:56:42.

high-pressure pick-up Ukip has become a wing of the -- they want a

:56:43.:56:47.

hard Brexit because Ukip has become a wing of the Tory party. The sense

:56:48.:56:55.

that people are out to punish Labour? No, I don't think people are

:56:56.:57:01.

right to punish Labour in anyway. I think people are looking -- out to

:57:02.:57:09.

punish Labour. Did you mention Mr Corbyn much on the doorsteps your

:57:10.:57:15.

ex-army aren't you? And your husband is as well right? Mr Corbyn said

:57:16.:57:22.

that Britain has an 40 just wasn't 1945, do you agree that? I think

:57:23.:57:27.

there a debate to be had about that. The just War theory is about why

:57:28.:57:32.

politicians and us to war not why we are there? Mr Corbyn was the only

:57:33.:57:40.

man to spend any time at the Cenotaph talking directions

:57:41.:57:42.

afterwards rather than going in for dinner. Mr Corbyn at his views, he

:57:43.:57:50.

and I would have a good to be debate about just war theory. You can see

:57:51.:57:57.

why people in the arms forces might think that he might not get a lot of

:57:58.:58:03.

support? I think, from my perspective, I have no issue with

:58:04.:58:06.

it. The Labour Party has a very strong history of supporting events.

:58:07.:58:10.

The biggest damage done to defence in the last 20 years was at the

:58:11.:58:14.

hands of the Tory led coalition, and having to administer that, the dent

:58:15.:58:19.

in morale and hollowing out of capability has not been forgotten.

:58:20.:58:23.

The strategic defence Security review... Daniel, people are saying

:58:24.:58:31.

on the streets, what is the point of Ukip? I would say to those people

:58:32.:58:36.

that the deal has not been done, it is not finished, the ink is not

:58:37.:58:41.

drive. We are the only party that is 100% passionate for getting out of

:58:42.:58:44.

the EU. We put the pressure onto the Tories to bring us the rest random,

:58:45.:58:49.

that pressure is not going away. You used to a conservative didn't you?

:58:50.:58:59.

Yes I did. Why didn't you go back? Why didn't because I see everyday

:59:00.:59:10.

people in Gloucester and around the country that Ukip is a party is a

:59:11.:59:21.

party for working people while the parties are not Conservatives not

:59:22.:59:26.

doing better? Given that we had a decade of austerity. We went up

:59:27.:59:33.

about six on our percent in local elections last week, -- 6.5%. In my

:59:34.:59:41.

tat we were absolutely leather, we lost two we gained two. -- in my

:59:42.:59:48.

patch we were absolutely level. We lost two we gained two. What we are

:59:49.:59:53.

saying is that the polls are moving but I think that is masking tactical

:59:54.:00:00.

voting. If Lib Dem voters are voting Labour to get the Tories out, well,

:00:01.:00:04.

there are more label sheets and Lib Dem seats. Very quickly last

:00:05.:00:12.

question to Jacob. What is the most negative thing you're hearing about

:00:13.:00:15.

the Conservatives? It is extremely positive. Mrs May... I'm not getting

:00:16.:00:25.

a negative response on the doorstep NHS social care education?

:00:26.:00:31.

Inevitably there are people who don't like the Conservatives and

:00:32.:00:36.

won't vote from me and by the same degree Mrs May, and I sometimes get

:00:37.:00:39.

a fruity response on the doorstep which is part of political life. But

:00:40.:00:46.

mostly it is very positive. The one thing is that Mrs May is too

:00:47.:00:52.

popular. Thank you, that is enough freaky stuff from Jacob.

:00:53.:00:55.

Tories are saying. It is a very emotive subject and we have run out

:00:56.:00:58.

of time. On Thursday nominations closed

:00:59.:01:06.

in the 650 parliamentary seats across the country,

:01:07.:01:10.

so now we know exactly who's We've been analysing the parties'

:01:11.:01:13.

candidates to find out what they might tell us

:01:14.:01:20.

about the make-up of the House Well, we know Theresa May is

:01:21.:01:22.

committed to delivering Brexit and analysis of Conservative

:01:23.:01:27.

candidates has shown that in their top 100 target seats,

:01:28.:01:32.

37 candidates supported leave during last year's referendum

:01:33.:01:34.

campaign and 20 supported remain; 43

:01:35.:01:42.

have not made public In the last parliament,

:01:43.:01:44.

the vast majority of Labour MPs were hostile to Jeremy Corbyn so how

:01:45.:01:51.

supportive are Labour Well, of 50 of Labour's

:01:52.:01:53.

top 100 target seats 17 candidates have expressed

:01:54.:01:59.

support for Mr Corbyn. 20 candidates supported Owen Smith

:02:00.:02:02.

in last year's leadership contest or have expressed

:02:03.:02:07.

anti-Corbyn sentiment, and If they won those,

:02:08.:02:11.

the Labour benches would be marginally more sympathetic

:02:12.:02:16.

to Mr Corbyn than they are now. What do the figures tell us

:02:17.:02:19.

about where the other Well, the Lib Dems have decided not

:02:20.:02:21.

to stand against the Greens in Brighton Pavilion,

:02:22.:02:25.

and are fielding 629 candidates this year -

:02:26.:02:27.

that's two fewer than 2015. The number of Ukip candidates has

:02:28.:02:30.

fallen dramatically. They are standing in 247 fewer

:02:31.:02:33.

constituencies than 2015, throwing their support behind

:02:34.:02:39.

solidly pro-Brexit Tories in some areas such as Lewes

:02:40.:02:42.

and Norfolk North. The Greens are fielding

:02:43.:02:46.

103 fewer candidates than at the last election,

:02:47.:02:50.

standing down to help other progressive candidates

:02:51.:03:01.

in some places. The most liking statistic is the

:03:02.:03:14.

demise in Ukip candidates, is this their swansong? And I think so. It

:03:15.:03:20.

is remarkable how few Ukip candidates are standing. It is hard

:03:21.:03:28.

to see they will suddenly revive in the next couple of years. I think

:03:29.:03:38.

this is probably the end. Frank Luntz mentioned the fragmentation of

:03:39.:03:42.

the left was a feature of this election, but also there is the

:03:43.:03:45.

consolidation of the right, and if you take the things together that

:03:46.:03:49.

could explain why the polls are where they are. Absolutely, that's

:03:50.:03:53.

precisely what happened at the start of the 1980s, the right was

:03:54.:03:59.

incredibly united and that's when we started talking about majorities of

:04:00.:04:04.

over 100 or so. No matter what the size of Theresa May's majority, it

:04:05.:04:11.

will be the total collapse of Ukip, but not just because we are now

:04:12.:04:17.

leaving the EU and that was their only reason for being, but a whole

:04:18.:04:21.

lot of people voted for Ukip because they felt the Tories were no longer

:04:22.:04:29.

listening. Theresa May has given the impression that she is listening,

:04:30.:04:32.

and that is the biggest possible thing that could happen to the Tory

:04:33.:04:41.

vote. Fragmentation of the left, consolidation of the right? It's one

:04:42.:04:46.

of the lessons that is never learnt, it happened in the 1980s, it doesn't

:04:47.:04:50.

take much for the whole thing to fracture so now you have on the

:04:51.:04:54.

centre-left the SNP, the Labour Party, the Greens, the Liberal

:04:55.:05:01.

Democrats all competing for the same votes and when you have, fleetingly

:05:02.:05:05.

perhaps, large numbers coalescing on the right in one party, there is

:05:06.:05:11.

only going to be one outcome. It happens regularly. It doesn't mean

:05:12.:05:16.

the Tories haven't got their own fragility. Two years ago, David

:05:17.:05:21.

Cameron and George Osborne the dominant figures, neither are in

:05:22.:05:24.

Parliament now which is a symptom of the fragility this election is

:05:25.:05:29.

disguising. Mrs May's position in a way reminds me of Mrs Thatcher in

:05:30.:05:35.

the 1980s, I won't be outflanked on the right, Nicolas Sarkozy in

:05:36.:05:40.

France, I won't be outflanked on the right, so the National Front didn't

:05:41.:05:43.

get through either timed he ran to the second round on like this time,

:05:44.:05:48.

and now Mrs May on Brexit won't be outflanked Iver and as a result has

:05:49.:05:54.

seen off right flank. And also she is looking to the left as well with

:05:55.:05:58.

some of the state interventions. What was interesting about the

:05:59.:06:01.

analysis you showed a few minutes ago was the number of Tory

:06:02.:06:05.

candidates who have apparently not declared which way they voted in the

:06:06.:06:09.

referendum, and you would have thought if this election was all

:06:10.:06:14.

about Brexit, as some would claim, that would become an unsustainable

:06:15.:06:17.

position, and actually more it's about leadership. But the point that

:06:18.:06:22.

I'm now hearing from a number of Labour candidates that they are

:06:23.:06:28.

seeing Tory leaflets that don't even have the Tory candidate's name on

:06:29.:06:34.

them, it is just about Theresa May. I am glad they are keeping to the

:06:35.:06:38.

law because by law they have to put it on. It has been harder for some

:06:39.:06:43.

of the smaller parties too because of the speed of the election being

:06:44.:06:50.

called. We have the manifesto is coming out this week. I think Labour

:06:51.:06:55.

Forshaw on Tuesday, we are not yet sure when the Tories will bring

:06:56.:07:00.

bears out. I suggest one thing, it will at least for people like me

:07:01.:07:05.

bring an end to the question you will have to wait for the manifesto.

:07:06.:07:12.

And Rebecca Long baby will never have that excuse again, isn't it

:07:13.:07:21.

wonderful! She is not the only one. When you are trying to take the

:07:22.:07:25.

north and Midlands from Labour, I would go to one or the other. For

:07:26.:07:31.

me, I can barely hold back my excitement over the Tory manifesto.

:07:32.:07:36.

This will be, I think, the most important day for the British

:07:37.:07:39.

government for the next five years. That wasn't irony there? You

:07:40.:07:47.

actually meant that? I'm not even being cynical at all on Sunday

:07:48.:07:52.

Politics! This is a huge day and it's because I think we will see...

:07:53.:08:01.

I don't think Mrs May will play it safe and I don't think we will get

:08:02.:08:05.

the broadbrush stuff that she might be advised to do. I think she will

:08:06.:08:09.

lay out precisely what you want to do over the next five years and take

:08:10.:08:15.

some big risks. Then finally after a year of this guessing and

:08:16.:08:18.

theorising, we will finally work out what Mrs May is all about. She will

:08:19.:08:22.

say she doesn't want the next parliament to be all about Brexit,

:08:23.:08:25.

though she knows that's the next important thing she has to deliver

:08:26.:08:30.

in some way, so she gets a mandate for that if the polls are right but

:08:31.:08:32.

she does have very different ideas from

:08:33.:08:46.

Mr Cameron about how to run a country. She will I assume one to

:08:47.:08:48.

mandate for what these different ideas are. Otherwise there is no

:08:49.:08:51.

point in holding an early election. You will get a majority, but if you

:08:52.:08:54.

get a mandate to carry on implementing the Cameron and Osborne

:08:55.:08:57.

manifesto it would be utterly pointless. I agree, it is the

:08:58.:09:00.

pivotal event of the election and it will be interesting to see the

:09:01.:09:04.

degree to which she expands on the line which interests me about its

:09:05.:09:09.

time to look at the good that government can do. Because in a way

:09:10.:09:14.

this moves the debate on in UK politics from, from 97 the Blair

:09:15.:09:19.

Brown governments were insecure about arguing about the role of

:09:20.:09:24.

government. Cameron Osborne government similarly so, so here you

:09:25.:09:27.

have a Labour Party talking about the role of government and the

:09:28.:09:31.

state, and Tory leader apparently doing so was well. I think that will

:09:32.:09:35.

be really interesting to see whether it is fleshed out in any significant

:09:36.:09:42.

way. And it is not a natural Tory message. Harold Macmillan talked

:09:43.:09:45.

about the role of the state, Ted Heath Mark two was pretty big on the

:09:46.:09:53.

state, the industrial policy and so on, and even if it is not thought to

:09:54.:09:58.

be that Tory, does she get away with it because she deliver such a big

:09:59.:10:03.

victory if that's what she does deliver? Just inject a little note

:10:04.:10:09.

of scepticism, I wonder how much of this is authentically Theresa May. I

:10:10.:10:15.

was interested to and talk to someone who used to sit in cabinet

:10:16.:10:20.

meetings during which Theresa May never expressed an opinion on

:10:21.:10:24.

anything outside the Home Office briefs. Other ministers were roving

:10:25.:10:30.

all over their colleagues' briefs. So where are the ideas coming from?

:10:31.:10:37.

I think we can point to Nick Timothy. One of her closest advisers

:10:38.:10:43.

in Downing Street. It will be interesting to see how that evolves.

:10:44.:10:49.

On Thursday I think we will all be talking about something called

:10:50.:11:00.

Urdington Toryism. Urdington is the suburb of Birmingham where Nick

:11:01.:11:04.

Timothy comes from, who is very much Theresa May's policy brain and

:11:05.:11:11.

leading inspiration. Urdington Toryism is about connecting the

:11:12.:11:14.

party with traditional working class voters, and their belief to do that

:11:15.:11:19.

is not just taking away government out of their lives but showing them

:11:20.:11:23.

that government can actually help their lives. It can be a force for

:11:24.:11:32.

good to rebuild the trust. A lot of what Mrs May talks about is all...

:11:33.:11:39.

It is talk and then a lot of it suddenly goes by the wayside. What

:11:40.:11:47.

happened to worker directors on the boards. It is designed to appeal to

:11:48.:11:51.

that constituency and then nothing happens. She had an excuse before in

:11:52.:11:57.

the sense that it wasn't in the 2015 manifesto and she had a small

:11:58.:12:00.

majority so therefore she arguably had to water down some of the stuff

:12:01.:12:05.

for example in her Tory conference speech, which had a lot of this

:12:06.:12:09.

active government material in it. If she puts it in the manifesto, it is

:12:10.:12:14.

a sign she plans to do it and will have no excuse if she then gets

:12:15.:12:18.

nervous afterwards because it will be in there. If it wasn't for

:12:19.:12:23.

Brexit, this great overwhelming issue, I think this election will be

:12:24.:12:27.

seen as quite a significant development in terms of an argument

:12:28.:12:32.

around the role of government, much-needed. But Brexit

:12:33.:12:36.

unfortunately overshadows it all. As much as we like our arguments over

:12:37.:12:41.

the role of government we will hear strong and stable, stable and strong

:12:42.:12:48.

ad nauseam, aren't we? Absolutely, and we heard the same old lines from

:12:49.:12:52.

the Labour Party as well so they are all at it. It will be a fascinating

:12:53.:13:00.

week, stop talking it down! Thanks to our panel.

:13:01.:13:02.

The Daily Politics will be back on BBC Two at noon

:13:03.:13:05.

I'll be back here at the same time on BBC One next Sunday.

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Andrew Neil and David Garmston are joined by shadow business secretary Rebecca Long-Bailey and Home Office minister Brandon Lewis to discuss the party manifestos for the forthcoming general election. Plus American political pollster Frank Luntz, and a chat with undecided voters in Leeds. Journalists Tom Newton Dunn, Isabel Oakeshott and Steve Richards review the papers.