25/05/2014 Sunday Politics Yorkshire and Lincolnshire

Good morning, welcome to the Sunday Politics. Senior Liberal Democrats

say the public has lost trust in Nick Clegg. They call for him to go

after the local election meltdown. And before the likely Europa rove a

catastrophe tonight. Labour and Tories struggled to cope with the

UKIP insurgency as Nigel Farage hosts his success and declares the

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster henhouse.

UKIP Fox is in the Westminster And later on the Sunday Politics:

Why some experts believe UKIP is poised to take Westminster seats in

Yorkshire and Lincolnshire at next year's general election.

hall spread, the Liberal Democrats disappeared, UKIP failed to show.

More analysis in just over half an hour.

Cooped up in the Sunday Politics henhouse, our own boot should --

bunch of headless chickens. Nick Watt, Helen Lewis, Janan Ganesh. The

Liberal Democrats lost over 300 councillors on Thursday, on top of

the losses in previous years, the local government base has been

whittled away in many parts of the country. Members of the European

Parliament will face a similar comment when the results are

announced tonight. A small but growing chorus of Liberal Democrats

have called on Nick Clegg to go. This is what the candidate in West

Dorset had to say. People know that locally we worked

incredibly hard on their councils and as their MPs, but Nick Clegg is

perceived to have not been trustworthy in leadership. Do you

trust him? He has lacked bone on significant issues that are the core

values of our party. This is how the party president

responded. At this time, it would be foolish

for us as a party to turn in on ourselves. What has separated us

from the Conservatives is, while they have been like cats in a sack,

we have stood united, and that is what we will continue to do. The

major reason why is because we consented to the coalition, unlike

the Conservatives. We had a vote, and a full conference.

Is there a growing question over Nick Clegg's leadership? Different

people have different views. My own view is I need to consult my own

activists and members before coming to a conclusion. I am looking at

holding a meeting for us to discuss the issue. I have been told by some

people they do not think a meeting is required, they think he should

stay, and other people have decided he should go. As a responsible

Democrat, I should consult the members here before coming to my

conclusions. What is your view at the moment? I have got to listen to

my members. But you must have some kind of you. Because I have an open

mind, I do not think he must stay, I am willing to say I have not made my

mind up. From a news point of view, that is my official position. I can

assure you there is not much news in that! I said earlier I am not going

to say he must go must stay, I am consulting my members. But you must

have some kind of view of your own before you have listened to your

members. There are people who are wrongfully sanctioned and end up

using food banks, I am upset about that, because we should not

allow... I do not mind having a sanctioning system, that I get

constituents who are put in this position, we should not accept that.

I rebel on the issue of a referendum on membership of the EU. I am also

concerned about the way the rules have been changed in terms of how

parents are treated in their ability to take children to funerals out of

school time. There are questions about the leader's responsible T for

those policies. Nick Clegg has made it clear he is a staunch

pro-European, he wants the Liberal Democrats to be in, he does not want

a referendum, if you lose a chunk of your MEPs tonight, what does that

say about how in June you are with written public opinion? There are

issues with how you publish your policies. I do not agree 100% with

what the government is doing or with what Nick Clegg says. I do think we

should stay within the EU, because the alternative means we have less

control over our borders. There is a presentational issue, because what

UKIP want, to leave the EU, is worse in terms of control of borders,

which is their main reason for wanting to leave, which is strange.

There are debate issues, but I have got personal concerns, I do worry

about the impact on my constituents when they face wrongful sanctions.

You have said that. A fellow Liberal Democrat MP has compared Nick Clegg

to a general at the Somme, causing carnage amongst the troops. I am

more interested in the policy issues, are we doing the right

things? I do think the coalition was essential, we had to rescue the

country from financial problems. My own view on the issue of student

finance, we did the right thing, in accordance with the pledge, which

was to get a better system, more students are going to university,

and more from disadvantaged backgrounds. But there are issues.

But Nick Clegg survive as leader through till the next election? It

depends what odds you will give me! If you are not going to give me is,

I am not going to get! If you listen to John hemming, he has got nothing

to worry about. He does have something to worry about, they lost

300 seats, on the uniform swing, you would see people like Vince cable

and Simon Hughes lose their seats. But nobody wants to be the one to

we'll be nice, they would rather wait until after the next election,

and then rebuild the party. Yes, there is no chance of him walking

away. Somebody like Tim Farron or Vince Cable, whoever the successor

is, though have to close the dagger ten months before an election, do

they want that spectacle? If I were Nick Clegg, I would walk away, it is

reasonably obvious that the left-wing voters who defect had

towards the Labour Party in 2010 will not return while he is leader.

And anything he was going to achieve historically, the already has done.

Unlike David Miliband, sorry, Ed Miliband or David Cameron, he has

transformed the identity of the party, they are in government. Had

it not been for him, they would have continued to be the main protest

party, rather than a party of government. So he has got to take it

all the way through until the election. If he left now, he would

look like he was a tenant in the conservative house. What we are

seeing is an operation to destabilise Nick Clegg, but it is a

Liberal Democrat one, so it is chaotic. There are people who have

never really been reconciled to the coalition and to Nick Clegg, they

are pushing for this. What is Nick Clegg going to do, and Tim Farron?

-- what is Vince Cable going to do? Vince Cable is in China, on a

business trip. It is like John Major's toothache in 1990. What is

Tim Farron doing? He is behind Nick Clegg, because he knows that his

best chances of being leader are as the Westland candidate, the person

who picks up the mess in a year. Vince Cable's only opportunity is on

this side of the election. But you say they are not a party of

government, but what looks more likely is overall the -- is no

overall control. You might find a common mission looking appealing.

They could still hold the balance of power. A lot of people in the Labour

Party might say, let's just have a minority government. 30 odds and

sods who will not turn up to vote. If they want to be up until 3am

every morning, be like that! When you were in short trousers, it was

like that every night, it was great fun! The Liberal Democrats will not

provide confidence to a minority government, they will pull the plug

and behave ruthlessly. Does Nick leg lead the Liberal Democrats into the

next election? Yes. Yes. Yes. I am sorry, Nick Clegg, you are

finished! We will speak to Paddy Ashdown in the second part of the

show to speak about the Liberal Democrats. The UKIP insurgency could

not deliver the promised earthquake, but it produced enough shock waves

to discombobulated the established parties. They are struggling to work

out how to deal with them. We watched it all unfold.

Behind the scenes of any election night is intensely busy. Those in

charge of party strategy and logistics want their people focused,

working with purpose and rehearsed to make sure their spin on the

results is what viewers remember and take on board. A bit of a buzz of

activity inside the BBC's studio, kept and primed for the results.

What this does not show due is the exterior doubles up for hospital

dramas like Holby City, there are doorways that are mock-ups of

accident and emergency, but the electorate will discover which of

the parties they have put into intensive care, which ones are

coming out of recovery and which ones are in rude health. We joined

David Dimbleby. Good evening, welcome to the BBC's new election

centre. When three big beasts become for on the political field, things

have changed. Eric Pickles says we will be seen off next year, we will

see you at Westminster! This party is going to break through next year,

and you never know, we might even hold the balance of power. Old

messages that gave voters in excuses to go elsewhere on the ballot paper

exposed the older players to questions from within their ranks.

In the hen house of the House of Commons, the fox that wants to get

in has ruffled feathers. The reason they have had amazing success, a

rapid rise, partly what Chuka Umunna says about being a repository, but

they have also managed to sound like human beings, and that his Nigel

Farage's eight victory. For some conservatives, a pact was the best

form of defence. It would be preferable if all members of UKIP

and voters became Tories overnight. That seems to be an ambitious

proposition. Therefore, we need to do something that welcomes them on

board in a slightly different way. Labour had successes, but nobody but

they're wizards of Spain was completely buying a big success

story. Gaffes behind the scenes and strategic errors were levelled at

those who have managed the campaign. They have played a clever game, you

shuffle bedecked around, and if UKIP does quite well but not well enough,

that helps Labour get in. That kind of mindset will not win the general

election, and we saw that in the tap ticks and strategy, and that is why,

on our leaflets for the European elections, we chose deliberately not

to attack UKIP, that was a bad error. Not so, so somebody who has

been in that spotlight. If you look at the electoral maths, UKIP will

still be aiming at the Tories in a general election. They are the

second party in Rotherham, Labour will always hold what the room, it

is safe, there is no point being second in a safe seat. UKIP have

taken Castle Point, a Tory seat they will target. The question for the

next election, can they make a challenge? The Tories will be under

the gun from UKIP. The substance of these results is UKIP not in

government, they do not have any MPs, they do not run a single

Council, at dismissing them ceased to be an option. The question is,

who will they heard most and how do you smoke the keeper's threat?

Joining me now, day about and Patrick O'Flynn. Do you agree not

enough was done for the elections? No, we have very good results around

Hammersmith and Fulham, Croydon, Redbridge, and we picked off council

wards in Haringey meaning that Lynne Featherstone and Simon Hughes worked

on. The Ashcroft polling shows that in key marginals, we are well ahead

and on course to win in 2015. I will be putting Mr Ashcroft's poll to

Eric Pickles shortly. On the basis of the local elections your national

share of the vote would be just 31%, only two points ahead of the Tories,

only two points ahead of Gordon Brown's disastrous performance in

2010. Why so low? National share is one thing but I am talking about

what we are doing in the key marginals. Clearly some were taken

away from others like Rotherham but we have got many voters back. You

are only two points better than you were in 2010 and use of your worst

defeat in living memory. That is the totality. What matters

is seat by seat, that is what the Republicans found in the

presidential elections. Patrick O'Flynn, you performed well in the

local election but it wasn't an earthquake. It is definitely true

that Labour did well in London but that is a double-edged sword because

you have an increasing disconnect between the metropolis and the rest

of the country. Our vote share was somewhat depressed not just because

London is one of our weakest part of the country but because most of the

warts in London were 3-member wards and we were typically only putting

up one candidate. Even when they fared well, it still tracked down

the projected national share. I think we did well, and what was

particularly good was getting the target seat list becoming clear

before our eyes. Suzanne Evans said that basically smart folk don't vote

for UKIP. I think that is a tiny fragment of what she said. She said

London is its own entity and is increasingly different from the rest

of the country. One of the things that is different from London as

opposed to Rotherham is that we have very big parties. I have a few

thousand people in mind, Rotherham has a few hundred. People don't go

and knock on doors and talk to people, in London we have always had

to do that. London is full of young voters, full of ethnically diverse

voters, that is why you are not doing well, you don't appeal to live

there. I think London in general has a very different attitude to mass

uncontrolled immigration. Londoners know that if an immigrant moves in

next door to you, to use Nigel Farage's phrase, the world doesn't

end tomorrow. People in the big cities know that, that is the point.

What Diane Abbott is doing is try to convince London of its moral

superiority so I am delighted... It is a simple fact that immigrants do

not end the world if they move in next door. The economic recovery is

getting more robust by the month, you have a seriously to ship problem

according to many people on your own site. Maybe you're 31% of the vote

is as good as it gets. Those who go round bitching about Ed Miliband

have been doing that before the result. We have all polled very

well. Ed Miliband does not polled very well. He has actually fashioned

some really effective policies. Unemployment is tumbling, inflation

is falling, growth is strengthening, and you have a leader who claims

there is a cost of living crisis and he doesn't have a clue about his own

cost of living. I think that was poor staff work. That he doesn't

know what goes in his own shopping basket? I think his own staff could

have prepared him for that. My point is that the numbers are looking

better, we know that, but people don't feel better off. Then why are

all consumer index polls better? They are feeling confident. They may

be saying that, but people are worried about their future, their

children's future. That is not what you buy today or tomorrow. If you

ask people about their future and their children's future and

prospects, they feel frightened. What will be a good result for you

in the general election? We need to see Nigel Farage elected as an MP

and he mustn't go there on his own. How many people do you think will be

with him? Who knows, but we will have 20 to 30 target seat and if you

put together the clusters we got in last year's County elections with

the one we got this year, you can have a good guess at where they

are. A number of people who voted for you and Thursday say they are

going to back to the three main parties in general election. It

would be foolish of me to say that they are going to stay. Some have

said they have just lent their votes but voters hate being taken for

granted. It is up to us to broaden our agenda, and build on our

strengths, work on our weaknesses. Ed Miliband may have to do a deal

with him. We have been here before, but the UKIP bubble is going to

burst and that may happen around the time of Newark. Are you going to win

Newark now? We are going to give it a really good crack. We love being

the underdog, we don't see it as being the big goal -- the be all and

end all. If you're going to get a big bounce off the elections, not to

go and win your shows people who govern in Parliament, they don't

vote for you. It is Labour who have given up the campaign already so we

need a really big swing in our favour and we will give it a great

crack. The bubble will burst at the Newark by-election, trust me. Have

you been to Newark? Newark will see from local people... Where is it? It

is outside the M25, I can tell you that. My point is that we are set

for victory in 2015. I want to run this clip and get your take on it,

an interview that Nigel Farage did with LBC. What they do is they have

an auditor to make sure they spend their money in accordance with their

rules. You say that is if there is something wrong with it. Hang on,

hang on. This is Patrick O'Flynn, is this a friend in the media or a

member of the political class? Do you regret doing that now? What were

you doing? No, I was trying to get Nigel Farage to a more important

interview with Sunday Times that had painstakingly organised. He was on

there? I have told the LBC people next door that he was running over.

So you interrupted a live interview and you don't regret that? No,

because just between us I wasn't a massive enthusiast for that

interview taking place at all. I know what James O'Brien is like and

I knew it wouldn't be particularly edifying. But your boss wasn't happy

with the intervention. Sometimes the boss gets shirty. We all upset our

boss every now and again, but anyway you could be an MEP by this time

tomorrow and you won't have to do this job any more. You can then just

count your salary and your expenses. I will make the contribution my

party leader asked me to, to restore Britain to being a self-governing

country. Are you going to stay in the job or not? I would not be able

to do the job in the same way but I would maybe have some kind of

overview. We will leave it there. Yesterday Michael Ashcroft, a former

deputy chairman, produced a mammoth opinion poll of more than 26,000

voters in 26 marginal constituencies, crucial seat that

will decide the outcome of the general election next year. In 26

constituencies people were asked which party's candidate they would

support, and Labour took a healthy 12 point lead, implying a swing of

6.5% from Conservatives to Labour from the last general election. That

implies Labour would topple 83 Tory MPs. The poll also shows UKIP in

second place in four seats, and three of them are Labour seats.

Michael Ashcroft says a quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP

supported the Tories at the last election. As many as have switched

from Labour and the Lib Dems combined.

The communities Secretary Eric Pickles joins me now. The Ashcroft

Paul that gives Labour a massive 12 point lead in the crucial marginal

constituencies, you would lose 83 MPs if this was repeated in an

election. It doesn't get worse than that, does it? Yesterday I went

through that Paul in great detail, and what it shows is that in a

number of key seats we are ahead, and somewhere behind, and I think is

Michael rightly shows... You are behind in most of them. This is a

snapshot and we have a year in which the economy is going to be

improving, and we have a year to say to those candidates that are

fighting those key seats, look, just around the corner people are ahead

in the same kind of seat as you and we need to redouble our efforts. The

Tory brand is dying in major parts of the country, you are the walking

dead in Scotland, and now London, huge chunks of London are becoming a

no-go zone for you. That's not true with regard to the northern seats.

Tell me what seats you have? In terms of councillors we are the

largest party in local government. After four years in power... You are

smiling but no political party has ever done that. You haven't got a

single councillor in the great city of Manchester. We have councillors

in Bradford and Leeds, we have more... You haven't got an MP in any

of the big cities? We have more councillors in the north of England

than Labour. A quarter of those who say they would vote UKIP and did

vote UKIP supported the Tories at the last election. Why are so many

of your 2010 voters now so disillusioned? Any election will

bring a degree of churning, and we hope to get as many back as we can,

but we also want to get Liberal Democrats, people who voted for the

Lib Dems and the Labour Party. If we concentrate on one part of the

electorate, then we won't take power and I believe we will because I

believe we represent a wide spectrum of opinion in this country and I

believe that delivering a long-term economic plan, delivering prosperity

into people 's pockets will be felt. On the basis of the local election

results, you would not pick up a single Labour seat in the general

election. You make the point that it is about local elections. Seats that

Labour should have taken from us they didn't, which is important... I

am asking what possible Labour seat you would hope to win after the

results on Thursday. Local elections are local elections. The national

election will have a much bigger turnout, it will be one year from

now, we will be able to demonstrate to the population that the trends we

are seeing already in terms of the success of our long-term economic

plan, they will be feeling that in their pockets. People need to feel

secure about their jobs and feel that their children have a future.

Maybe so many of your people are defecting to UKIP because on issues

that they really care about like mass immigration, you don't keep

your promises. We have reduced immigration and the

amount of pull factors. Let me give you the figures. You have said a

couple of things are not true. You promised to cut net immigration to

under 100,000 by 2015, last year it rose by 50,000, 212,000. You have

broken your promise. We still intend to reduce the amount from non-EU

countries. I want to be clear, I have no problem with people coming

here who want to work and pay their national insurance and tax, to help

fund the health service. What I have objection to our people coming here

to get the additional benefits. You made the promise. It is our

intention to deliver it. People defect to UKIP because mainstream

politicians to -- like yourself do not give straight answers. Can you

be straight, you will not hit your immigration target by the election,

correct? We will announce measures that. People factor. Will you hit

your target? It is a year from now, it is our intention to move towards

the target. Is it your intention, do you say you will hit your target of

under 100,000 net migration by the election? We will do our damnedest.

But you will not make it. I do not know that to be fact. They also vote

UKIP cos they do not trust you and Europe, David Cameron has promised a

referendum, he has vowed to resign if he does not deliver one, but

still your voters vote for UKIP. There were reasons why people voted

for UKIP. A great deal of anger about the political system, about

the Metropolitan elite that they see running programmes like this and the

political programmes. We need to listen to their concerns and address

them. David Cameron has got a better record on delivery. He vetoed a

treaty, he stopped us having to bail out the currency. Why are you likely

to convert a night in the European elections? If you do come third, it

will show they do not trust you on Europe. Next year, we will face a

general election, about having money in people's pockets, about who will

run the country. David Davis wants to China and get the voters to trust

the Tories on the referendum, he was the pledge to be brought forward to

2016. He is a clever guy. But if you are going to try to negotiate a

better deal to give the population a better choice, you cannot do that in

a year, you will require two years. You are an Essex MP, you know about

Essex people, it must be depressing that they are now voting for UKIP. I

do not have any UKIP in my constituency. I felt bad to see

Basildon go down and to see the leader go down. Do you know why that

is? The Tory party does not resonate with the Essex people in the way

that the Margaret Thatcher party did. That is why you did not get a

majority in 2010 and why you will not win in 2015. We need to connect

better. They will want to know about their children's future, will they

have a job, a good education? When it comes to electing a national

government, they do not want to see Ed Miliband in office. They are

voting for Nigel Farage. In terms of what government you get, do you want

to see David Cameron in number ten or Ed Miliband? Essex will want to

see David Cameron. You only got 36% of the vote four years ago, your

party, occurs you did not get the Essex people in the same numbers,

like John Major or Margaret Thatcher did. You need more than 36% in 2015

to win the election. On Thursday, your share was 29%. We were 2%

behind Labour. They did not do very well either. A year before, -- a

year before the election in 1997, they were on 43%. It is highly

deliver the votes. We have a campaign looking at the marginals.

We know exactly where we are not doing as well as we should be. I am

a big fan of Michael Ashcroft. Do you think he does this to be

helpful? He is a great man and a good conservative, I am a good

friend of his. I think that his publication was one of the best

things that happened to the party. You got 36% of the vote last time,

you are down to 29, you need 38 or 39, you would get that if you had a

pact with UKIP. There will be no pact. I am a Democrat. It is like a

market stall, you should put your policies out there and you should

not try to fix the market. Would you stop a local pact? There will be no

pact with UKIP. None. It has just gone 11:35am. We say

goodbye to viewers in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Coming up here, we will speak to the Liberal Democrat election

Hello, you're watching the Sunday coordinator Paddy Ashdown. First,

Hello, you're watching the Sunday Politics from Yorkshire and

Lincolnshire. Coming up today: We'll find out why

some experts believe UKIP is poised to take Westminster seats in

Yorkshire and Lincolnshire at next year's general election. But the

other main parties say they're aiming to stop the Farage bandwagon

in its tracks. Joining us live in the studio today

are the Conservative MP for Calder Valley, Craig Whittaker; Sarah

Champion the Labour MP for Rotherham and Amjad Bashir, one of UKIP's

candidates in the European elections. He will find out tonight

but he has been elected as an MEP for the Yorkshire Ambulance and

region. `` Yorkshire and the region. ``

Yorkshire and Lincolnshire region. The fruitcakes have come home! Not

my words, the words of one newly`elected UKIP councillor

following the party's success in the local elections. But despite losing

a number of seats to UKIP, Labour remains the dominant political force

in Yorkshire and parts of Lincolnshire. With a round`up of the

main headlines, here's Len Tingle. Hip hip, hooray! The new kids on the

block in Grimsby and Cleethorpes ` seven extra UKIP councillors to add

to the one they already had on the local North East Lincolnshire

Council. I think today's result is a fantastic accumulation over the last

ten years when we have worked for this. We are now a party that they

cannot... The fruitcakes have come home! Eight councillors is not

enough for UKIP to take control of the 42`seat North East Lincolnshire

Council, but that damaged the Labour group because four of them had

previously been theirs, down to 21, meaning Labour no longer has a

guaranteed majority here. UKIP, I think, will be a temporary

phenomenon which will split and argue and divide on the council and

possibly even in Europe. The interesting thing about this

election is the fact that the electorate are saying to both

parties, "A plague on both your houses." Well, for people like me,

who have long been Eurosceptics even before the word was invented, I

think, it confirms our view that people are very disconnected from

the whole process, particularly the fact that Europe is seen as that

distant organisation going against what British people and in some

cases, what the British Government want. The UK Independence Party,

1,567 votes. It was a similar story in an even more traditional Labour

heartland over in South Yorkshire. Labour have been in power in

Rotherham for 80 years and it still is, but now it has to cope with ten

UKIP councillors and amongst the scalps UKIP claimed was the Deputy

Leader. They took votes right across the board, they took them from us,

they took them from the Tories and they took seats from the Tories as

well, the Lib Dem vote collapsed and, of course, they took votes also

from people who haven't voted for a while and so I think this is a

challenge to all of us, mainstream parties and mainstream politics and

really it is a protest. CHEERING. Labour did have its own election

celebrations, this was Bradford, the last big Yorkshire city where the

party did not have a majority going into these elections ` it does now,

but only just. It took the extra two seats it needed for a slim majority

of just one. But Labour did see off another opponent in Bradford: George

Galloway's Respect Party was crushed, not a single one of its ten

candidates came even close to winning. Victory was especially

sweet for Deputy Leader Imran Hussain. In 2011 he was the Labour

candidate at the parliamentary by`election trounced by George

Galloway. This week he retained his seat with a record majority. The

issue is the same, you come into town, make a load of empty promises

and then don't deliver on them. Well, what do you expect? People are

going to see through that and I think the voters and electors in

Bradford West have seen through that. George made a lot of promises

and he has not delivered on any of those promises. The biggest losers

across Yorkshire and Lincolnshire were the Lib Dems. Their worst

defeat was in Calderdale in West Yorkshire: The party was defending

six seats in the Halifax`based council...and lost the lot.

And, after the surge of UKIP in Rotherham winning half of the

available seats are you worried you may not have the job this time next

year? Since the by`election in 18 months ago I have worried about

being in a job and that has driven me to work as hard as I can and do

as much as I can to show to my constituency I am working for them.

This just reminds me that the approach I have been taking is the

correct one and that is what we must do across the country. Amjad

Bashir, let me remind you of the comment Diane Abbott made to Andrew

Neil. She said voters in London shunned UKIP because they were

educated and in Rotherham they voted for that party because they were

less educated, what you make of that? What a ridiculous statement,

she obviously does not come from Yorkshire and the county that I am

pro of. We are just as well educated as they are in a London. `` that I

am proud of. We have just won ten seats in this area and we will

continue to build on that. Craig Whittaker, what do you make on the

comments made by some of your colleagues who said he will not win

the next election issue formed a pact with UKIP? It is utter rubbish.

We saw Labour taking control of a local council by winning seats. It

was the Tory Party. Labour doing that. UKIP, without question, gave

the Labour Party a real hammering in some locations. We saw 18 months

ago, two years ago from canvassing on the doorstep that actually it is

the Labour vote as much as ours at threat. We are a new dynamic, we are

fourth party that has done so well and good that the mainstream parties

into freefall. We resonate with the people. It is OK for the Tories to

say that they will listen to the electorate and do something about

immigration, something about the European Union, were wealthy? The

other people that resonates, who talked to the people and listen to

the people. That's why we are making such a six. Throughout the country

we are making a resounding success. You are 6% down on your results last

year and the reality is that the Labour Party on across`the`board

across all councils. In London we did not feel as many candidates

because we were not set up for London. I will explain to you the

percentage. That is the reason why that percentage is showing lower. If

we had the infrastructure in London and representation throughout each

constituency in London, that would change. You must remember that all

seats in London have been contested, in many cases we did not feel any

candidate at all. That is why the percentage shows lower. We won 161

seats. You will not win only by focusing on London, what I am

telling you is that across the country you did not do as well as

last year. UKIP have been crowing about how is accessible you have

been but you are done on the figures from last year. The reality is very

different. The reality is that we started from a certain position and

we have gone into the bastion of the Labour Party in Rotherham, then

Hull, all over the north`east and we have tackled, unlike the Tories who

have failed miserably in the north, we have taken on the Labour Party in

the north and on. We have taken on the Conservatives and the southern

heartland and one. Is the UKIP party now the protest vote for people who

do not like the Conservatives? Some people do not like the Conservatives

and some others have not liked us for some time we have recognised

that unlike the Labour Party. Ed Miliband was predicted by

independent analysis that he needed 500 seats to show that they could

take government next year and they have failed miserably in doing that

and that is why I will not recognise that UKIP are thought or fourth

party. Last year we were told that we were the protest vote. This year

we won 161, we are still a protest vote, that is not the case, it is

demeaning to the people who voted for us to see that we are simply a

protest vote. `` to side. You took control of Bradford Council but you

failed to win Calderdale and other local councils. We don't win Kiwi.

`` we don't win Kiwi. I will not be happy until you look

at the map and the Hall of it is covered in red for the Labour Party.

I am looking for the key marginals that we actually achieved and I am

confident by winning those marginal seats along the M62 corridor that we

were when the next general election. Both the leaders of

Labour`controlled councils only last week said without question they were

going to take those seats and you feel, you fundamentally failed to

deliver. To say that she will paint the Hall of the North red, that is

unbelievable. We came second and a lot of seats. It is first past the

post. It is a good build`up for 161 seats and we will continue to build

upon that. Amjad Bashir, some of your own critics have accused you of

hypocrisy because one of your family businesses was found to employ

illegal immigrants, and you effect and proper person to represent UKIP

as a small and medium`sized business spokesman? These allegations are

completely unfounded. There was no suggestion that the employee illegal

immigrants? That is not the case. But they were prosecuted. The

business employs over 50 people that brings income to a lot of people. I

have founded a lot of businesses throughout the country unlike these

to represent this year. I am proud of that record. You are proud of

running a business that employs illegal immigrants? It's a largely

employs local people. The nature of my business has meant that we have a

gold star rating in which we can import staff, that is the nature of

the business, we have received that gold star rating from the Home

Office. It is a job for the Home Office to work after immigration but

it has been fostered upon businesses but I was not a director when the

visit took place and the directors are defending themselves. You have

said seven people were employed illegally. That is correct. Three of

these people were clear and four, the Arsenal clarifying the

situation. While and you running a business that employs any

immigrants, your leader says that you should be looking to employ

British people. Why are you employing immigrants? There is a

skills shortage. Our party is not completely against immigration, we

welcome immigration but it has to be the correct take that and skills and

value to our country. I am one of those people who has advocated

providing skills to our own so that we do not have to import people from

abroad and as long as that remains the case we must do it because there

is a shortage of skills. Immigration was a big talking point at the lead

up to the European elections. So, we'll find out the results of

the European elections just after ten o'clock tonight. There'll be

full coverage on the BBC News Channel and later on BBC One. But,

of course, the question we always ask at this time of year, is what do

the local election results tell us about who could win what in the

general election? We asked Professor Colin Mellors from the University of

York to crunch the numbers and he's been speaking to Sean Stowell.

The headlines the day after the night before. Had a general election

taking place last week, they would have looked something like this.

UKIP taking Great Grimsby off the hands of Labour. And possibly

Cleethorpes from the Conservatives as well. Over in Leeds, whilst they

would be no change amongst MPs, UKIP would have been runners`up in Leeds

Central. And along the marginal constituencies connected by the M62,

Labour would have gained Bradford East and Bradford West and Keighley

but only by the slimmest of margins. In Sheffield, amid the wreckage of

the Lib Dem vote, Nick Clegg would have nevertheless have held his

seat. According to the BBC number crunchers, this week's local

election results would not have put Ed Miliband in Downing Street, so

what does this mean for Labour in the North? The challenge we have

seen in Yorkshire with these election results is how to re`engage

with an electorate that is drifting and contrasts with how well Labour

has done in London this week with not how terribly well they have done

in the North of England is a very stark one. Rotherham is a town with

a number of immigrants is below the national average. The challenge

facing Labour and the Conservatives is only too clear, how do the

parties deal with immigration on what they would describe as the UKIP

factor. What is the problem with immigration

in this region? There is too many immigrants. The big parties need to

block their idea is up. We still need to look at the manifestoes of

the big parties before making our decision. We hear the predictions

from Professor Colin Mellors. Lord Ashcroft has also suggested from his

research that the Labour Party will have a big majority at the next

election. Your colleagues are perhaps sweating like the accountant

of Garry Barlow, are you not? ! The only poll that matters is the

election next year. We will be working right across the country to

put things right. How are you going to win back people who voted UKIP

this year in time for the general election next year, Sarah Champion?

We have strong policies around jobs, housing, the cost of living and our

task is to get our message out to the people. Once we get the

policies, we have in the past not explain them properly and for myself

and my colleagues it is telling people what we are going to do and

how we are going to help them, especially not just the majority ``

not just the minority but the majority of people. When it comes to

general election contest, second is about the best that the UKIP party

can manage, is that not the case? We are going to get MPs into power next

year. Allow me to finish, please. All of the people who stand for

government and our party, all the people standing as MEPs and

councillors, they are all ordinary folk like myself, I am the son of a

mill worker and we have all worked hard all of our lives. We are not

career politicians, that is why the people like us and that is why we

will get votes next year at the general election, we are real

people. My father was a mechanic and my mother worked at the Children's

Hospital, so am I a career politician? Some of these people do

not do normal work, they do not understand. After 40 years of hard

work, trying to look after my family and providing employment, I have

come into politics because I believe that you guys have got it wrong. You

are telling us that people like Sarah and myself have not worked

hard for 40 years old and after our families? ! That is all typical of

the hypocrisy of your party. We are real people and we have worked

extremely hard. So have I and so has Craig Whittaker. We know about the

concerns of the people because we have worked in the real world. You

cannot dismiss others. Judith Maude even know my name before you came

and they are today, so how dare you tell me what I have done in my life

and what I have achieved. `` you do not even know my name. We are both

very good local MPs. Looking at your front bench, they have all been to

the same colleges and schools, we have been exposed to the real world

where we have provided jobs and work within the courses. You do not even

know our names, do not lecture others. I knew your names and I knew

who you were. I am telling you the truth. What you are seeing is

symptomatic of what many people in your party have been saying. You are

simply repeating the same lines back to us. I will say it once more time.

We worked in the real world. Therefore we know what the people

want. You do not have the policies. Can we get back to talk about the

issues that matter to voters in Yorkshire and Lincolnshire. The one

issue that people are talking about Time and again that immigration. Ed

Balls and Ed Miliband have set a tough line on this issue is

necessary but they were both in government when policies regarding

immigration where relaxed, how can we trust your party? We have very

clear ideas on how to address this problem. We are going to tackle

illegal immigrants, then we are going to toughen up border control

and he huge way. What we have seen is that border agency staff have

been cut. We are clocking people coming in but we do not clock then

going out and we do not have the resources to get rid of them if they

are found to be living here illegally. We must then tackle the

employment agencies that are only here for overseas workers and not

paying them the minimum wage. We have to bring forward a whole range

of options and opportunities for us to be tough going forward. When the

Labour Party came to power in 1987 and when they relaxed the rules in

2004, the said 30,000 to 40,000 people would come into this country.

4 million people came over, that is two or three times the size of the

population of Birmingham. Where are they going to build the houses and

the schools? We need to build a new house every seven minutes to go with

that sort of immigration. Let me bring in Craig Whittaker, from your

election results, the voters do not trust the Tory Party either. When we

talk about immigration, immigration itself outside of Europe has

decreased by one third, so what we are caught me about this actually

freedom of movement within Europe and that is the part that we cannot

as a government or any government deal with without dealing with the

euro question as well. You cannot do anything about that. Absolutely,

that is what I have said. When Nigel Farage says he would not want to

live next door to Romanians, how is that different from people saying

they should not be forced to live next door to Pakistani families? We

have been attacked and derided, and the highest court in the land which

is the public, they have voted in 161 new councillors, you have field

with your attacks, this is nothing but an attack. Please give us your

predictions for next year's general election. We will be victorious with

a small majority. I think that the Labour Party will win. I hope that

the mothers when also at Wembley, but I believe that you get will be a

fighting force that will dominate politics for a long time to come. ``

the benefits system to make it

contributory. Thank you. With that, back to you, Andrew.

Welcome back. Mutterings among Lib Dems about Nick Clegg's leaderships,

as we reported at the top of the show, and tonight it could get even

worse when we get the results of the European elections. Paddy Ashdown,

former Lib Dem leader, joins me now from our Westminster studio.

Something has to change for the Lib Dems, if Nick Clegg isn't the change

what will it be? The messages we have about reducing tax on the

poorest, they now have traction. We have been on many programmes of this

sort before, this idea that has been put about by these people who are

calling for a leadership election is the silliest idea I have heard in my

political career. It is not serious politics. This is the moment when we

need to get out with a really good message and campaign through the

summer in the context of the general election. Spending it on a divisive

leadership contest is ridiculous. At the very moment when our sacrifices

are beginning to gain traction, we turn in on ourselves. The question

is, can the Liberal Democrats hack being in government? If we were to

take this step, the anther would be no, and that would damage the party

forever. It is clearly a problem, you have had to come out and defend

Nick Clegg, we have not even had the European election results yet. It

could get even worse by midnight. I have been up here anyway, to argue

the party's case in the context of tonight. Let me try to put this in

scale. We have a website which people can join to show their ascent

to the fact that they like cake, it is called Liberal Democrats like

cake, it has more people signed up than this website that is calling

for a leadership election. Something like 200, of course this happens

from time to time, the wonder is you are talking -- you are taking it

seriously. Your colleagues are taking it seriously, including

sitting MPs. People trot out a list of achievements that the party would

like to be associated with, he began doing just that, but you have been

doing that for months, if not for over a year, your ratings in the

polls are terrible, you had a terrible local election, and you

will probably have a terrible European election. It will cut

through much better in the context of an election, we have been talking

about the European elections. We have been here a long time, let me

take you back, we have had tough times, in 1989, we came last in

every constituency in Britain, save one, behind the Green party. One or

two voices said, you have got to ditch the leader, me, you had one of

them on earlier, John Hemmings, as I recall. One or two said we had to

change course, but we stood our ground, and in the general election

we not only re-established our position from a base of almost

nothing, we laid the basis and foundation for doubling our seats in

1997. That is what the party can do, they have a great message, and

insert of wasting the summer and autumn on a leadership contest, we

should be doing that. Nick Clegg had two opportunities to put part of

that message across in the debate over Europe, but the party poll

ratings fell after that. What Nick elected us to try to fill a vacuum

of antique European rhetoric. And he lost. He could not change the best

part of a generation of anti-European propaganda in a couple

of performances? He lost the second debate more than the first. It is a

long-term programme. Nick Clegg had the courage to take us into

government. He took that decision before the party and gained 75, 80%

support in a democratic vote. He has led the party with outstanding

judgement. He has showed almost incredible grace under fire, being

attacked from all sides, because some people hate the coalition, and

he has the courage to do what no other Liberal Democrat leader has

done, to stand up before the British people and say unequivocally, we are

in favour of Europe. He is a man of courage, integrity, decency, he is

one of the best prime ministers Britain has not got. In the context

of a general election, that will go through. I am devoted to the man, he

can do amazingly well in the general election. But he is losing local

elections again and again, the European elections, and he is on

track to lose the general election. European elections are not easy for

us. Whatever happens tomorrow morning, it will not be bad -- as

bad as 1989. We have had that line. In the context of a general

election, we fought our way back, this time, we have been in

government, we start from a higher base, we have a message to tell

about how we alone have taken the tough decisions to get this country

out of the worst economic mess it has ever seen, left to us by the

Labour Party. We can go out in the context of a general election and

fight for that. My guess is that the resurgence of the party in the

context of a general election will be far greater than you are

suggesting. We have done the Liberal Democrats,

that move onto the other parties. How bad a leadership problem does Ed

Miliband have? He has a continuation of a problem he has had for a long

time. The Labour Party thought they had a soft lead, and they have the

same situation, everybody is hanging on. They have to make a

breakthrough. The big thing is that lots of people at Shadow Cabinet

wish they had taken on UKIP, why was Labour turning its fire on the

Liberal Democrats? They should have been taking on UKIP, and UKIP taken

seats from them, such as in Rotherham. They have finally woken

up. I think there is a class war breaking out, the northerners have

taken against Ed Miliband and the Metropolitan sophisticates around

them... One Labour MP has said, we do not want these guacamole eating

people from North London! A number doing that. They wanted to take the

fight to UKIP, because UKIP is getting working-class, Northern

Labour votes. John Mann said it was ridiculous that the Labour Party did

not put posters in the North of England to say that Nigel Farage

regarded Margaret Thatcher as his heroine. But in a funny way, those

Northern Labour MPs are speaking for the South, because the Labour Party

will only win the general election if it takes back those seats in the

south, the south-east, a couple of seats in the south-west that Tony

Blair in 1997, and they acknowledge that. It is important to say they

did win the local elections, they got 31%, but that was only to bustle

-- two points hang-up the Conservatives. Neil Kinnock got 38%

in 1991, the year before John Major got the largest in of votes ever.

There is unease in the shadow cabinet about why Ed Miliband did

not take on UKIP on immigration earlier. But Ed Miliband says, we

should not be calling UKIP names, we should be calling them out, and he

would say he did call them out. The unease in the party has made the

results worse for them than they should have been, they did pretty

well on Thursday. Although UKIP took votes from them in safe seats, in

the end, it will not make much difference. UKIP is taking votes

from Tories in marginals. It made it appear that Labour have not done

well. Diane Abbott was right, a lot of the Labour MPs who came out on

Friday morning had been practising their lines in expectation of a

disappointing result. In the north, I do not think UKIP's status of the

main nonlabour right-wing party will damage Labour. If you have a

majority of 25,000... But in the South and Midlands, UKIP could break

the non-Tory vote in such a way as to cost Labour marginal seats that

they would otherwise win. As for the Tories, look back at 2009, UKIP 116

or 17% of the popular vote in the European elections and fell to 3% in

the general election. You mentioned Europe, the Tories are anticipating

finishing third, they did not do well on Thursday, they seem to be

putting everything on Europe, we will beat UKIP in Newark. That is

the line I am getting from them. The Liberal Democrats and Labour are

nowhere there, they both got 20% of the vote, the Tories got 53%, a

majority of 16,000. UKIP do not need to do well to have an enormous

increase on last time. This seed is a referendum on Tories against UKIP,

which we have not seen so far. I was there for the rocky road packed.

David Cameron gave a piece of rocky road to Boris Johnson, saying, you

know you want it, Boris. The Tories must be a head, because at the

bakery stores, the blue buns outsold the UKIP buns.

Ed Miliband bit off more than he could chew when he turned launch

into a budgeted last week, but he is not the first politician to make a

meal of it. I love a hot pasty, the choice was

to have a small one or a large one, and I opted for the large one, and

very good it was, too. The significance of the Ed Miliband

business is more about the media, we can amplify nothingness, but because

the narrative is that Ed Miliband is accident prone, even eating a big

concern which becomes an accident. He is deemed to be weird, so we find

pictures that support the conclusion. It is a class issue, you

reveal your social class by what you eat, what supermarket you go to. You

can play somebody accurately. Politicians are largely of a

different class from the voters, and as soon as you ask them about food,

it becomes apparent. To thine own self be true, David Cameron

pretending he was interested in Cornish pasties, he does the cooking

at the weekend, lots of posh food, do not pretend to be something you

are not. The problem for Ed Miliband with that picture, he has some

abnormal people working for him, but what he does not have is a broadcast

person who can spot those pictures. George Osborne hired Theo Rogers

from the BBC, she has transformed... She may have been

guilty of the burger, but she has transformed his image on TV. That is

what Ed Miliband needs. You are correct, it Ed Miliband was 15

points ahead in the polls, screwing up the eating of a bacon sandwich

would be seen as an endearing trait. We might not have even noticed it.

That is all this week, you can get those European election results with

David Dimbleby on vote went to 14 from 9pm on the BBC News Channel,

and from 11pm on BBC One. No programme next week, but we are back

in two weeks. If it is Sunday, it is the Sunday Politics.

This week, Britain has voted for its Members of the European Parliament.

What will the result tell us about the political mood here in Britain

of the results both here and across Europe.