02/10/2016 Sunday Politics


02/10/2016

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This programme contains some flashing images.

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We're live from sunny Birmingham on day one of

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the Conservative Party Conference, where, three months after Britain

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voted to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister has given

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us her first inkling of how she plans to do it.

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Morning, folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May says she will trigger Article 50, starting the two year

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process of negotiations that will culminate in Britain

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leaving the EU, before the end of March next year.

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So Brexit by Easter 2019 - but what kind of relationship

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A Great Repeal Bill will also be voted on next Spring,

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but won't be enacted until we leave, at which point EU laws will be

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And what do Conservative MPs want to hear from their new leader?

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We catch up with a Brexiteer and a Remainer as they pack

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In the capital, if London was defined by the conservatism of the

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Notting Hill set, what now? We explore the potential rise of Sidcup

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Man. So far no Great Repeal Act to get

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rid of the Sunday Politics Panel - Steve Richards, Rachel Sylvester

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and Tom Newton Dunn. It's 100 days since we voted

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to leave the EU and the clamour has grown for the Government to tell us

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what Brexit would look like. This morning, as the Tory faithful

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gather in Birmingham, we still don't expect to be told

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what Brexit means but we do know more about the timetable

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and the extrication process. A Bill will go before parliament

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this spring to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act,

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which legalised our membership But it won't actually come

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into force until we leave. Theresa May also told

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the Andrew Marr Show that Article 50 would be invoked

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by March of next year - starting the two year process

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of renegotiation before we leave. I have been saying we would not

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trigger it before the end of this year, so that we get confirmation in

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place. I will be saying in my speech today that we will trigger before

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the end of March next year. The remaining members of the EU have to

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decide what the process of negotiation is. I hope, and I will

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be saying to them, that now they know what the time is going to be,

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it is not an exact date, but they know it will be the first quarter of

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next year, that we will be able to have some preparatory work so that

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once the trigger comes we have a smoother process of negotiation.

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Theresa May, on this channel, just over an hour ago. What do you make

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of it? Saggy as you said, we know more about when but we don't know

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what Brexit is going to be. We don't know how the relationship will work

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out, we don't know what the Prime Minister's negotiation position will

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be, we haven't worked out anything about the free market access and

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freedom of movement. All of the substance. It is a significant

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announcement but we don't actually know anything really big about what

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our lives are going to be like in future. Is there a risk from the

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Prime Minister? Is there a risk putting this before Parliament to

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repeal the 1972 Communities Act? Undoubtedly. Anything you put before

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the House of Commons or the House of Lords, where there is no Tory

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majority, let alone a Brexit majority, risks getting amended. She

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runs the risk. There is also a risk of not saying this, not having the

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greater appeal, which is actually a great repeal act, when is being

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repealed, but she needed to throw the Tory right red meat, and they

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got it this morning. There is always the potential of a constitutional

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crisis. If the Lords were to dig in over this, or even digging over

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Article 50, demand a vote on that, lawyers are arguing whether you need

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it or not, it may not be plain sailing when you have a majority of

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12? It definitely isn't going to be with a majority of 12. The scope for

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constitutional crisis is many. Clashes with the Lords, clashes with

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the Commons, Scotland is still there in the background allows a

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significant factor. It will always be there, but perhaps in a different

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context. I don't think this will be the trigger for a constitutional

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crisis. You have to admire the elegant choreography. I was told

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ages ago that she knew she could not keep carry on saying Brexit means

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Brexit, there will have to be new lines. This is beautiful. We kind of

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knew that Article 50 was going to be triggered early in next year. David

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Davis even said that. It was a fair bet it would be before Easter. They

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couldn't spend the next two years negotiating Brexit and refocusing

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the entire legislative programme to spend the next two years rejigging

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the mountain of legislation we are affected with. They have turned a

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logistical, unavoidable inevitability into a sense of

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momentum this weekend. Very clever presentation. There are going to be

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huge crises to come over this. Picking off the 1972 Act, putting it

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all into British law and legislation, rather than dependent

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on Europe, that is what the Brexiteers wanted. To that extent,

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she has thrown them a bit of red meat today? Yes, but we still don't

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know what Brexit is going to be. But a bit of red meat keeps you going

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for a while. Maybe get them through to lunch time. Today or tomorrow?

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Really just today. The tactic is to get some stuff about Brexit out, get

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them talking about that and then move onto agenda she wants,

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domestic. What do you think? Good luck with that! Are you reading my

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script coming up? It was on the autocue, I'm sorry! Clearly, she is

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accessed about not making his premiership all about Brexit. It

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will be, but she is desperate. She needs to define herself away from

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Brexit, who is Theresa May, what did she really believe? We have heard

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whispers, but the next few days as a chance to do that. The fringe, Liam

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Fox is talking at two fringes. Two opportunities for a story. David

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Davis as well. These two men of great talent and potentially great

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ego, they will not be able to stop themselves having feelings heard.

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And Boris. Boris who? I have not seen him on the fringes. Fringe

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meetings have been quite dull at party conferences recently. Because

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of this issue, I think people are going to pack them out. That is

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where words might be said, explosive words. We live for fringe meetings!

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The PM hopes her announcement will deal with Brexit on day one

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so the conference can get on to talk about other matters.

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But as you can see from this not so slim tome - the conference guide-

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there are plenty of other issues to talk, maybe even argue about.

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Our Ellie caught up with two Tory MPs from different sides

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of the party before they set off, to see what they think lies in store

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# Just can't wait to get on the road again

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# The life I love is making music with my friends

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# And I can't wait to get on the road again...#

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Do you actually enjoy going to conference?

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It's not as much fun as when you're not an MP,

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because now people want to talk to you and everybody

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But do you make contacts, do you network?

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Do think Theresa May gets nervous about conference,

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I think if you are performing on a big stage, whoever you are,

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you ought to have a few nerves jangling around.

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But she's a polished performer, I'm sure she'll know

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Theresa May will also know she has several contentious issues she needs

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It is perhaps not surprising, then, that day one of

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We're pretty well balanced between those of us like myself,

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representing constituencies with really high levels

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of research, science and agriculture, who will be very

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keen, but probably pragmatically understanding that we are not

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going to hear everything tomorrow, and the rest

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of the party who are just desperate for information.

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If they don't think the deal is going in the right way,

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they will want to say something about it.

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I think the time frame is pretty clear.

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We are going to trigger Article 50 at some point relatively

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That means we will get the negotiations done a good year

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The rest is going to be important meat on the bones.

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But, in terms of the core strategy, Theresa May goes into this

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So, a unified front, albeit perhaps fragile.

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But then there is the question of grammar schools.

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Depends whether we hear more about it.

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You know, the concept in its one-dimensional sense,

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you can't have a problem with that, can you?

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Giving parents choice, giving bright children the chance

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But, for me, for many of us, it has to be a package

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Our teachers are pretty stressed and overworked

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I'm not actually sure this is the right time.

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I would rather see emphasis being put on fairer funding.

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Constituencies like mine have been underfunded for decades.

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If you go into politics and government scared

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of your own shadow, unprepared to do anything bold or brave,

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I think there is no risk-free option.

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Of course, people have different views on grammar schools

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and it is a totemic political issue as well.

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But I think if you read the green paper, the Prime Minister has set

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out a very sensible, carefully calibrated approach,

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not just to grammar schools but the wider

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The new PM also faces big strategic decisions on expensive projects

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like airport expansion, an area even her Cabinet

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With all these big infrastructure projects, HS2, Heathrow,

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issues around fracking, nuclear as well, I think we have got

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to take the right decisions for the country, make sure Britain

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Each one of those is thorny in its own right.

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But what I think is most important is we look at it very carefully,

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That is where we all start to see the metal in Theresa,

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Whilst on the one hand, having a Prime Minister -

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nobody could have been more delighted than me that we managed

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to cut the tax credits changes - but having a Prime Minister

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that sticks to her guns, I'm not for U-turning,

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How confident are you, going to this conference,

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that it is all going to be sorted and you are going to be

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Well, people predicted an economic nosedive after the referendum.

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People said there would be political chaos.

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Actually, the economy has proved resilient.

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I think there is a sense of resolve on all sides of the party

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on all of these different issues to get behind this Prime Minister

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Last year, you got into a bit of trouble, being quite vocal

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Some suggestion you weren't a proper conservative.

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I think I am absolutely a proper conservative.

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I think my party needed reminding what conservative was.

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Our job is to help people who need a leg up.

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Her opening speech in Downing Street told me she absolutely is.

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Like all of these things, we will hear more about this week.

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# And I can't wait to get on the road again. #

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And we're joined now by the Transport Secretary,

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who was a leading Leave campaigner, Chris Grayling.

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Welcome back to the programme. The great repeal act, what exactly does

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it repeal? It repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. It means

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the European Court of Justice no longer has sway in the United

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Kingdom. It means the European Commission and Parliament no longer

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make laws for us. As of today, in our system, European law is supreme

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over UK law, and it repeal that. Except what it does is it

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consolidates all existing European legislation into British law. It

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would be more accurate to call it the great Consolidation act? Is This

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is what I argued for during the League campaign. The remaining

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campaign said you could not do it, it will take years, it will be a

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disaster. My response then is what it is now, the best way to do it is

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to consolidate existing legislation, much of which we will want to keep,

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the environmental measures, the workers' rights measures, what we

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want to do is to make sure we can get certainty before the event and

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after the event, for workers, businesses, but what the legal

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position will be. Over time, we have the freedom, outside the European

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Union, free from the control of the European Court, to change our legal

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system in the way that we want. It does mean we would leave the EU with

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all of this EU law still part of British law. Now, what would you

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wish to change in the aftermath? There is a whole variety of

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different things we will be looking at a change. For example, if you

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want a practical one, it is unlikely that after we have left the European

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Union we will still be paying child benefits to children that have never

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even entered the United Kingdom. That is the kind of thing we will be

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free to change after we have left. What else? Much of it we will want

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to keep, environmental measures, not all that has been done in the

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European Union for 40 years has been bad for Britain. How long will it

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take to pick all of this after we leave? Will be down to the

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Government to decide... Ten years? 20 years? It will take it as long as

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we choose. What is right and proper is that on the day after there is a

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degree of certainty for businesses. It would not be fair for a company

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to be operating under a set of rules, for there to be a cliff edge

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where they do not know what is going to happen the day after. Let's make

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it an evolution, not a revolution. A lot of the things you have to agree

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to enter negotiations mean it will have to remain law even after we

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leave? This clearly the case that if a business in this country is

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continuing to sell a product in the European Union, it will have to make

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the standards of the European Union. Those rules will apply. That is the

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same if we're selling to the United States, the rules of the United

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States would apply to a business planning to sell a product there.

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What happens if you lose the vote? It is inconceivable that Parliament

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can look at the view of the British public and ignore it. Parliament

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voted overwhelmingly for the referendum to take place in the

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first place, the people have given a mandate and I am certain Parliament

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will fulfil it. What would happen? You have a

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majority of only 12 and there was a majority for remain in the Commons

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and there is a large majority in the house of lords. If the parliament

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does not seamlessly agree for what you call the great repeal act, what

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would happen? Both houses are full of Democrats and they will respect

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the will of the people. But we could be faced with a constitutional

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crisis? We have taken the decision to leave and parliament voted for

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the referendum and it is inconceivable that Parliament would

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not allow that process to go forward. If the inconceivable

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happen, you'd have to cores and -- call an election. Inconceivable is a

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bit of a stretch. Plenty of voices, particularly in the House of Lords,

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would use this as a an opportunity to thwart you. And I don't think the

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House of Lords will turn around and say we should not fulfil that. There

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may be dissenting voices but they will view it as a democratic mandate

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that we have to fulfil. Has your party don soundings in the Commons

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to make sure you can get this through? I've not been involved in

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that discussion but parliament will respond to the will of the people.

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That's the way this country works. That's what you hope. We shall see

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how it works. We've been told by the Prime Minister this morning that

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article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. That means that we are

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out by Easter 2019. Can you confirm that those British members of the

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European Parliament currently in Strasberg, there will be no more for

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them after this. If we have left by the end of the two-year period. It

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is technically possible to extend it. After that period, there

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wouldn't be EP is after that point in 2019. -- MEPs. For Brexit to mean

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Brexit, the famous phrase, which is basically tautology. It would mean

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the freedom to have our own trade laws. It would mean the ability to

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do that? You are leading me to answer questions about the specific

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legal structures. It means our own free-trade deals? Correct. It would

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mean we are no longer subject to the rules of the European Court of

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Justice. Also correct. And we would have whatever control we desire over

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immigration? The Prime Minister has been clear that we need to control

:19:34.:19:36.

the flow of immigration into the country. Any of these counts as out

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from being a member of the single market. So can we agree that there

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is no way we can remain a member of the single market? There is no such

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thing as a member of the single market. There are a number of

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different trading agreements within the EU. We are effectively a member

:19:57.:20:02.

of the single market now but we can't be after this. The question

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you have asked me, do we want to be Norway, Switzerland, Canada when it

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comes to trading arrangements? We want to be the United Kingdom. We

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are the biggest customer of German car-makers, French farmers... I

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don't want to have the referendum fight again. It seems as black as

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black or as White is white that if you want all of that we cannot be a

:20:32.:20:36.

member, we can have access on terms yet to be agreed, we will have a

:20:37.:20:41.

relationship, but why cannot you say that we won't be a member in the way

:20:42.:20:45.

that we are currently a member of the single market? We won't be a

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member of the European Union but there is no such thing as a member

:20:52.:20:57.

of the single market. There is no single market in services, for

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example. There is but it is not as developed as goods. I believe we

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will end up with a trading partnership with the European Union

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on terms to be agreed that will work for both of us. Access but not

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membership. You cannot be a fully paid-up member of the single market

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without the European Court of Justice ruling on it and you don't

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want that. I don't understand your problem. Your pre-merging --

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prejudging the outcome of negotiations. We want the best

:21:35.:21:38.

possible trading arrangements with European neighbours and that is what

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we will work towards. Where different to the other countries

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that have been involved in these negotiations before. We have heard

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all that before in the referendum and we wanted some clarity on what

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it would mean. Transport, when will you give is the decision on runway

:21:56.:22:01.

expansion? I'm not going to set a date today. I've spent the summer

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looking at the three different options. We have three very well

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presented packages. The airport commission has looked at it

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carefully and the Prime Minister and I want to understand the options in

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detail and understand the strengths and weaknesses of each and we will

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reach our decision shortly. I'm not going to set a date on it. Shortly

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means in this year, surely. I don't want to wait unnecessarily long to

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take the decision but nor do I want to set a date so to to work towards

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that. Will there be a free vote? I need to identify the best option for

:22:43.:22:46.

Britain and take the best possible approach to get the support of

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parliament Porritt. Will there be a free vote? Decisions have not been

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taken but we will do the best for the interests of the country.

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Theresa May has said the options for an expansion to Heathrow are

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seriously flawed. Philip Hammond has described the Heathrow option as

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dead as a Norwegian parrot. Can you be sure that the Prime Minister and

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Anna Chancellor will vote for your proposal? We are looking at three

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options that are very new. One of them is Heathrow. Warrant -- they

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are very different options to what has been proposed in the past. They

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are all very well crafted proposals. They are interesting and have

:23:44.:23:48.

potential and we need to decide. That is why I am asking you. HS2,

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high-speed train, can you state categorically it will go ahead? It's

:23:57.:24:01.

due to start construction in the spring. The hybrids Bill Haas to

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continue its passage through the house of law -- the hybrid Bill Haas

:24:06.:24:15.

to continue through its passage in the house of lords. Will it be 2026?

:24:16.:24:29.

Will it be on-time and on budget? The select committee of MPs said it

:24:30.:24:34.

is unlikely and will certainly be over budget. I expected be

:24:35.:24:47.

absolutely clear and on -- expected to be absolutely on-time and on

:24:48.:24:52.

budget. The latest estimate for phase one, the core cast is ?14

:24:53.:24:57.

billion but there is contingency on top of that. How much? It is set to

:24:58.:25:06.

Treasury rules. It is always going to be over. If you really believed

:25:07.:25:12.

in the Northern powerhouse wouldn't this money be better spent instead

:25:13.:25:20.

of making it quicker to come to and Birmingham from London in under 90

:25:21.:25:25.

minutes, which you already can, wouldn't it be better to spend the

:25:26.:25:30.

money on state of the art road links between East and West in the north.

:25:31.:25:46.

I think we need to do both. We can't get more freight onto rail without

:25:47.:25:52.

creating more space. By taking fast trains off the West Coast main line

:25:53.:25:58.

which is already busy and put fast freight trains onto the new route,

:25:59.:26:04.

you create more capacity for places like Milton Keynes Dons Northampton,

:26:05.:26:07.

Coventry. It is about making sure we have a transport system that can

:26:08.:26:13.

cope with the demands of the 21st-century. Thank you very much.

:26:14.:26:16.

Now, as we speak, voters in Hungary are going to the polls to vote

:26:17.:26:20.

on whether to accept mandatory EU quotas for relocating migrants.

:26:21.:26:22.

The country's government has been campaigning for voters to reject

:26:23.:26:25.

the EU's proposals and has run a highly controversial campaign,

:26:26.:26:27.

accusing migrants of terrorism and crime - and the Prime Minister

:26:28.:26:30.

Viktor Orban has said today he'll quit if the country votes

:26:31.:26:32.

In response to the ongoing migrant crisis, the EU wants to establish

:26:33.:26:37.

a permanent European resettlement programme, under which,

:26:38.:26:39.

member states must take their fair share of asylum seekers,

:26:40.:26:41.

depending on the size of each country's population and economy.

:26:42.:26:45.

If countries refuse, the European Commission has proposed

:26:46.:26:47.

that they would incur a financial penalty of 250,000 euros per person,

:26:48.:26:52.

to cover the cost of another country taking them.

:26:53.:26:57.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the plan

:26:58.:26:59.

Last year, Hungary rejected an emergency EU plan that would have

:27:00.:27:04.

seen tens of thousands of refugees transferred out of the country

:27:05.:27:08.

in return for accepting a quota of almost 1300 refugees

:27:09.:27:11.

As an EU border country, Hungary has received 18,500

:27:12.:27:17.

In 2015, it received the most asylum applications relative

:27:18.:27:24.

to its population of any EU state - 1800 for every 100,000 local people,

:27:25.:27:29.

though the majority of those then travelled onwards to other

:27:30.:27:32.

Although the referendum result will have no affect

:27:33.:27:39.

on the EU's decision, the Hungarian government hopes

:27:40.:27:41.

the weight of public opinion will help it resist the plans,

:27:42.:27:44.

running a very controversial referendum campaign.

:27:45.:27:47.

For example, this poster saying migrants carried out

:27:48.:27:49.

We're joined now from Budapest by our Correspondent, Nick Thorpe.

:27:50.:27:57.

I understand that the polls are pretty clear that the government

:27:58.:28:05.

will win this referendum but it needs a turnout of at least 50% for

:28:06.:28:10.

it to matter. What indication of turnout so far? As of 11am, turnout

:28:11.:28:21.

was just over 16% of the electorate. We have an electrode of 8.3 million,

:28:22.:28:26.

the government is campaigning strongly for a no vote. The

:28:27.:28:32.

government have framed the question in such a way that it is hard to

:28:33.:28:38.

vote, yes, we do want this imposed on us. The issue of turnout is

:28:39.:28:50.

important because the opposition have campaigned not to vote or to

:28:51.:28:58.

spoil votes. Even if the government wins on the numbers, if more people

:28:59.:29:03.

vote against the quotas, is it a symbolic defeat for the government

:29:04.:29:09.

if that was to happen? Some people will argue it would be a symbolic

:29:10.:29:16.

defeat if they don't get 50%. We've heard that ministers are backing off

:29:17.:29:21.

the whole issue of turnout. They are hoping for at least 3 million people

:29:22.:29:28.

to vote. Even 4 million which would be the 50%, voting no to migrant

:29:29.:29:34.

quotas. They say that all of those votes will give them a strong moral

:29:35.:29:39.

hand. In the words of the Prime Minister, it will sharpen the

:29:40.:29:42.

Hungarian sword in the battles ahead. Thank you very much.

:29:43.:29:47.

Malin Bjork is Swedish MEP and Vice Chair of

:29:48.:29:50.

the Confederal Group of the European United Left

:29:51.:29:52.

Welcome to the programme. The quota system proposed already seem to be

:29:53.:30:07.

dying if the Hungarians vote the way they are expected to today, that

:30:08.:30:12.

will kill it, will it not? I think we should have it as a point of

:30:13.:30:19.

departure whether we have seen that Hungary is a model in any of the

:30:20.:30:25.

fields that we want hungry -- Europe to be. I don't think Hungary is the

:30:26.:30:31.

model. I don't think we should give him the kind of weight that he

:30:32.:30:36.

actually claims. He wants more weight to this referendum. I don't

:30:37.:30:38.

think we should give it to him. It is not just Hungary, is it? There

:30:39.:30:50.

are meant to be 100,000 migrants covered by the quota system, fewer

:30:51.:30:54.

than 5% have been covered by it. It is just not happening, whether

:30:55.:31:00.

Hungary votes for or against? No, it is totally... But that means it is

:31:01.:31:04.

not operational, it is simply not working. There are serious

:31:05.:31:07.

criticisms to have towards implementing partners in this. But I

:31:08.:31:11.

do think when it comes to the political course, Hungary is playing

:31:12.:31:16.

a very dangerous, racist and right nationalist game. I don't think we

:31:17.:31:21.

should adapt to it. If it comes to it, we have to be prepared to be

:31:22.:31:26.

behind those that do not want to be the Europe that is taking

:31:27.:31:29.

responsibility globally. Let me clarify what you mean by that. The

:31:30.:31:34.

Foreign Minister of Luxembourg has already said that Hungary should be

:31:35.:31:38.

expelled from the European Union. Is that what you are saying as well?

:31:39.:31:45.

No, no. You know what I think? As a progressive politician on the left

:31:46.:31:49.

side, I do have a lot of criticisms to the European Union. But there are

:31:50.:31:54.

planets apart from the kind of models that Viktor Orban is trying

:31:55.:32:00.

to build, where he does not respect human rights, laws and media

:32:01.:32:04.

freedoms, and now he attacks refugee rights. Given all of that, let's

:32:05.:32:09.

accept what you say is true about that, others may dispute it, but

:32:10.:32:14.

let's accept that as true, why should Hungary remain a member of

:32:15.:32:18.

the European Union? Well, it is up to each country that has voted to

:32:19.:32:22.

stay, and voted to become members, voting to stay, I don't think Orban

:32:23.:32:29.

has any intention of leaving EU. I think he wants more influence in the

:32:30.:32:32.

EU. I think he wants more influence domestic league through the

:32:33.:32:35.

referendum and more influence in the EU. The question the rest of the

:32:36.:32:38.

countries have to ask themselves is if we are going to give it to him or

:32:39.:32:43.

adapt to his politics in any of these fields he is active in? I

:32:44.:32:46.

think we should make a stand against it. We should have political forces

:32:47.:32:50.

in other countries that have exactly the same kind of agendas, which we

:32:51.:32:56.

don't want to see strengthened. Isn't the problem that may be

:32:57.:33:00.

Hungary is on the trend, and you are not? We have seem the right, some

:33:01.:33:05.

may call it the far right even, on the march in Austria, Poland and in

:33:06.:33:10.

Hungary, even in Germany, with the recent elections in Berlin and

:33:11.:33:15.

Angela Merkel's backyard, even progressive social Democratic

:33:16.:33:17.

Sweden, your third biggest party is now the Sweden, Democrats, a hard

:33:18.:33:26.

right nativist party. Why are forces on the move, and while the forces

:33:27.:33:31.

used and four on the defensive? The more progressive forces, I think

:33:32.:33:35.

they are growing in many countries also, such as Spain, Ireland and

:33:36.:33:39.

other countries. It is not just for the left, it is for the broader

:33:40.:33:43.

political spectrum to counteract nationalist, right-wing and racist

:33:44.:33:47.

forces. We know where they lead, a dead end. It is a challenge in the

:33:48.:33:52.

European countries. Why is Europe going in this direction? In 2016,

:33:53.:33:56.

why are the forces of the rights so strong? To be honest, I think we

:33:57.:34:06.

have to be a little bit more humble and say are we failing people in

:34:07.:34:10.

some way? Yes, austerity policies are not working. Inequalities have

:34:11.:34:15.

grown for over 20 years in Europe. Of course it is a failure. We are

:34:16.:34:20.

capable of saving banks, but not refugees. People see this. It is

:34:21.:34:24.

political failure and I think we have to sit down and create

:34:25.:34:27.

different pacifists. What is happening now is worrying. I see

:34:28.:34:31.

some of the political forces in Europe. -- create different

:34:32.:34:36.

patterns. I see parties in Europe adapting to racism nationalist

:34:37.:34:45.

voices. I think we have to be the different parties that will not

:34:46.:34:48.

adapt to nationalist stories. They paint imaginary enemies. A huge

:34:49.:34:55.

chunk of Hungary's public spending comes from the European Union, net

:34:56.:35:00.

contributors like Sweden and the United Kingdom. If Hungary votes

:35:01.:35:04.

this way, should that continue? Should we continue to bankroll it?

:35:05.:35:11.

The way Europe and the European Union, individual members develop,

:35:12.:35:14.

of course we should lead discussions about money and heel spending to the

:35:15.:35:20.

respect for rule of law, the respect for human rights and the respect for

:35:21.:35:26.

international rights that are being infringed by the Hungarian

:35:27.:35:29.

government. Of course, we have to have such a discussion and it has to

:35:30.:35:31.

be frank. It's just gone 11.35,

:35:32.:35:34.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:35:35.:35:36.

in Scotland who leave us now I think he is going to do

:35:37.:35:39.

a much better job than And we're joined now by the former

:35:40.:58:47.

Work and Pensions Secretary and Leave campaigner,

:58:48.:59:07.

Iain Duncan Smith. it you said we could be out of the

:59:08.:59:24.

European Union by 2018? My senses if you keep their process as simple as

:59:25.:59:29.

possible and don't try to get special pleading and try to be a

:59:30.:59:32.

member of the single market which they are not going to grant you, if

:59:33.:59:37.

you go for a clear and simple position on trade and find an

:59:38.:59:43.

agreement then the more complex issues then disappear. Theresa May

:59:44.:59:51.

has said that when she brings the act forward to repeal the 1972 act,

:59:52.:59:58.

at the same time you binding the European Law and you speed the

:59:59.:00:03.

process up. Keeping it simple, keeping up pace is what we

:00:04.:00:07.

recommended. It allows you to get the end point quicker.

:00:08.:00:12.

You talk about member of the single market, Chris Grayling told me there

:00:13.:00:18.

was no such thing, which slightly puzzled me. You clearly think that

:00:19.:00:25.

there is. What you want, as I understand it, is a free-trade

:00:26.:00:28.

agreement with the European Union. That could not be done by 2018? We

:00:29.:00:33.

want free trade. There are two approaches to getting free trade

:00:34.:00:35.

with the European Union. The first is that you say, OK, in this

:00:36.:00:42.

process, if we sympathise and ask ourselves, if we now have a new

:00:43.:00:47.

relationship, we have left, we want capital goods, we want to access

:00:48.:00:53.

each other's markets, it benefits you more than us, but we are happy

:00:54.:00:56.

not to have tariff barriers on your trade, we have an agreement of no

:00:57.:01:00.

tariff barriers. Financial services are outside, a separate issue, more

:01:01.:01:06.

of a regulatory issue. That is also approaching a deal on equivalence

:01:07.:01:09.

that we could accelerate. The point I am saying is if you do not go down

:01:10.:01:14.

the road trying to nominate individual bits and pieces and say

:01:15.:01:17.

it is a good agreement for us both, you could reach that by agreement.

:01:18.:01:21.

If you don't and you can't, you could fall back on the WTO

:01:22.:01:27.

arrangements and say, well, later on, we will continue that

:01:28.:01:29.

negotiation discussion to decide whether or not we want a free-trade

:01:30.:01:35.

position. If you fall back on that, what you say to the boss of Nissan,

:01:36.:01:39.

who says he will not invest again in this unless the government back row

:01:40.:01:45.

compensates him, he faces tariffs? The answer to that is that first of

:01:46.:01:49.

all I did not believe we will end up in a situation where it is, in any

:01:50.:01:53.

way, a financial benefit for the European Union to want to impose any

:01:54.:01:58.

kind tariff. Right now you are 12% better off anyway. The level of the

:01:59.:02:04.

pound has made it 12% more competitive with European partners,

:02:05.:02:08.

even if you slapped on 10% tariff. It goes up and down, but you asking

:02:09.:02:13.

him to take investment decisions, multi-billion pound decisions, head

:02:14.:02:17.

of Jaguar, saying roughly the same thing, at a time of real

:02:18.:02:27.

uncertainty. Until it is resolved, investment in Britain will slow

:02:28.:02:31.

down, if not dry up? They invest because this is a darn good place to

:02:32.:02:34.

sell your businesses. You heard from the head of the publishing sector in

:02:35.:02:37.

Germany, he said Britain in five years' time will be much more

:02:38.:02:41.

profitable than anywhere else and will be the boom place. Outside the

:02:42.:02:49.

European Union it will be more flexible to set out arrangements. I

:02:50.:02:52.

am with him on this. I was in business before I came into

:02:53.:02:57.

politics. Nobody knows what the future holds for anything. For car

:02:58.:03:01.

makers and others that want to build stuff, they are here because they

:03:02.:03:05.

want a flexible workforce, much lower levels of cost, and a much

:03:06.:03:11.

better contract law base. 85% of Nissan's output goes to the single

:03:12.:03:15.

market. That is right, they also sell here. 15%? You are not suddenly

:03:16.:03:21.

going to meet a massive tariff wall, a closet is not in the interests of

:03:22.:03:25.

the European Union to set up a massive tariffs. Guess who sells

:03:26.:03:29.

more to us than we do to them? The European Union. The Germans

:03:30.:03:33.

themselves are behind-the-scenes talking to us. We had a lot of that

:03:34.:03:37.

during the referendum. Let me move onto some other things. Damian Green

:03:38.:03:42.

is now running your old department. He is scrapping repeated tests for

:03:43.:03:46.

the seriously disabled, people that you know are not going to be able to

:03:47.:03:53.

improve. Why didn't you do that? We wanted to change this, it was a

:03:54.:03:58.

programme given to us by the last Labour government, we did quite a

:03:59.:04:01.

lot to improve it. The big problem, the programme as it exists at the

:04:02.:04:05.

moment, it does not deal with health conditions, it deals with ability to

:04:06.:04:08.

work. That is the problem. If you want to scrap it for people with

:04:09.:04:12.

health conditions, you have to change the criteria by which they

:04:13.:04:15.

are being assessed. That has always been the issue. For disability

:04:16.:04:28.

payments, it is a different matter. They are assessed on their

:04:29.:04:30.

condition. The problem for that... He will stop the assessments of

:04:31.:04:32.

people that are seriously disabled, why didn't you do that? This is not

:04:33.:04:35.

seriously disabled, it is people that suffer from sickness

:04:36.:04:36.

conditions, not necessarily full-time disability. There are two

:04:37.:04:41.

elements. When I was in Government, we have always set out a process

:04:42.:04:44.

that said we needed to change the way the sickness benefit system was

:04:45.:04:50.

assessed. That was so you could rule out conditions, some progressive,

:04:51.:04:53.

some absolute, on a medical basis, on the approval of the Health

:04:54.:04:58.

Service, so they would say this is a condition that will change, it will

:04:59.:05:01.

mean they cannot work now but they might be able to work for a bit. You

:05:02.:05:05.

put it into a box marked medical conditions. That was already on the

:05:06.:05:10.

box. He has just done that, to acclaim. Why didn't you do it, if it

:05:11.:05:16.

is that simple? We needed to get agreement in Government and we have

:05:17.:05:19.

not reached the Provo ease approval. It is a wider plan. This could have

:05:20.:05:25.

been incremented on its own? But you have to change the way you do it. I

:05:26.:05:32.

was in favour of a bigger plan that brought in changes all into one,

:05:33.:05:35.

because they are competing with each other and do not have the kind of

:05:36.:05:39.

effect that you want. It is the right thing to do. Until now, there

:05:40.:05:43.

have not been a huge number of assessments taking place because the

:05:44.:05:46.

system has not been able to cover it. There is a lot of talk about

:05:47.:05:53.

trying to reposition the Tory party on the centre ground, even the

:05:54.:05:57.

centre-left, talking about worker's rights and so on. It is not credible

:05:58.:06:04.

until she does something. 6 million people earn less than the Living

:06:05.:06:07.

Wage, after six years of Conservative government. 6 million

:06:08.:06:10.

people earn less than the Living Wage. That is the reality, not Tory

:06:11.:06:15.

erect a wreck that we are hearing in the hall. -- that is the Tory

:06:16.:06:25.

rhetoric. Raising the minimum wage was making sure that you identify

:06:26.:06:31.

that and raise the blood. There are still 6 million below. The mantra of

:06:32.:06:36.

this government was to make work pay. 50% of families in poverty have

:06:37.:06:44.

at least one family member working. They are still in poverty, waiting,

:06:45.:06:49.

doing difficult and unpleasant jobs, long hours, they are still in

:06:50.:06:55.

poverty. Many people in this country work and still it is the equivalent

:06:56.:07:02.

of poverty. That does not pay, work does not pay for them. Huge problems

:07:03.:07:06.

down the low skill level of work. This is the one area, the level of

:07:07.:07:15.

skills at that point is arguably some of the lowest in the Western

:07:16.:07:21.

world. Companies too often do not invest in skills because of the

:07:22.:07:24.

nature of the tax credit system, you have them in packets of 16 hours, it

:07:25.:07:28.

is not worth investing. Universal Credit will change all of that quite

:07:29.:07:32.

dramatically. It allows people to work more of the hours, invest more

:07:33.:07:37.

in them. The second aspect is back to the migration issue. That has had

:07:38.:07:40.

a very damaging effect on low workers. There are two elements of

:07:41.:07:46.

this. It is not just the statutory migration, it is that what happened

:07:47.:07:49.

is that a lot of people come for under one year. They do part-time

:07:50.:07:56.

work, they claim full benefits, Migration Watch proved it is over 4

:07:57.:08:00.

billion per year. That allows them to go and do cash in hand work. It

:08:01.:08:05.

is a big problem, it has only now become clear how damaging that has

:08:06.:08:09.

become to British people working at low income level. What does this

:08:10.:08:14.

party, if it is this self-styled Workers Party, what does it have to

:08:15.:08:19.

do in a country where 6 million people get less than the Living

:08:20.:08:23.

Wage, 50% of people in poverty are already in work and poverty levels

:08:24.:08:27.

among those in work are at record levels. So much for the worker's

:08:28.:08:39.

party? The answer is it has to do a lot, we have been talking about

:08:40.:08:43.

Brexit a lot, Theresa May has dropped a lot of hints about what

:08:44.:08:48.

she wants to do. The announcement yesterday morning about this massive

:08:49.:08:53.

review, led by a Blairite, Matthew Taylor, to completely re-examine

:08:54.:08:58.

employment rights. Thereby meaning, for the low paid and the casual

:08:59.:09:05.

workers, holiday pay for Uber drivers, it opens a massive area of

:09:06.:09:12.

things, grammar schools... You need high-quality technology schools to

:09:13.:09:23.

up-skill its? She has all of this on her agenda, possibly more

:09:24.:09:28.

interesting than even Brexit. I was planning not to mention Brexit in

:09:29.:09:33.

this segment, but I think I did. There was a lot of flesh to be put

:09:34.:09:37.

on his bones before it is convincing? Theresa May is playing a

:09:38.:09:44.

political game of trying to dump the nasty party image, become a more

:09:45.:09:48.

compassionate conservative. She is changing from the David Cameron era,

:09:49.:09:54.

instead of being the bottom 10% or 15% of people that he was focusing

:09:55.:09:59.

on, as well as the wealthier elite, she is looking at the people earning

:10:00.:10:04.

more than ?16,000, up to ?21,000, those who have children that are not

:10:05.:10:09.

on free school meals, not the most deprived, she calls them the just

:10:10.:10:14.

managing classes, they might have one for holiday each year, they

:10:15.:10:17.

might want to send their kids to piano lessons or the local Football

:10:18.:10:21.

Club, they are not the poorest people on welfare. That could have

:10:22.:10:26.

an impact on what you're saying, it could also undermine her reputation

:10:27.:10:29.

for being compassionate if she is seen to be abandoning the people

:10:30.:10:34.

that need help most. There is always a political case for doing something

:10:35.:10:37.

for Middle Britain, where most people are. They call at Middle

:10:38.:10:41.

America over there and so on. But these are not the in work but in

:10:42.:10:48.

poverty. Being a worker's party, one that dines out on its support for

:10:49.:10:52.

work, if it is to do anything, it has to do something about these

:10:53.:10:57.

people? The key issue is what the economic policies are in this new

:10:58.:11:03.

government. Nobody on the programme this morning has talked about the

:11:04.:11:06.

deficit, which George Osborne framed everything around, to the point

:11:07.:11:15.

where, as they know better than anyone, he struggles to get welfare

:11:16.:11:18.

reforms affected because of our budget cuts that hit those on low

:11:19.:11:23.

income in work. Until we know the degree to which the framing of that

:11:24.:11:28.

deficit strategy has changed, we will not really know the space they

:11:29.:11:32.

will have to make sure that does not happen over the next few years and

:11:33.:11:36.

the opposite happens. That applies to all of these issues, actually.

:11:37.:11:41.

The economy will provide the space, or not, to do these things. The

:11:42.:11:48.

Treasury is telling the Chancellor that the slowdown in the economy,

:11:49.:11:52.

not as slow as they thought, but still a slowdown, that, in itself,

:11:53.:11:56.

will widen the deficit. Therefore, he is not going to have a tonne of

:11:57.:12:01.

money to throw around on top of that, which would widen the deficit

:12:02.:12:04.

even further. There is room for manoeuvre which may be quite slight?

:12:05.:12:10.

Not quite true. He has abandoned George Osborne's fiscal targets.

:12:11.:12:15.

Having already taken this into account by what they think is the

:12:16.:12:18.

slowing of the economy. They have been wrong in the past, but that is

:12:19.:12:21.

why they have done that. There is not a turn of money around to spend

:12:22.:12:26.

billions on infrastructure, unless, of course, like Mr Corbyn, you want

:12:27.:12:31.

to borrow it. When you say you are not going to eradicate the deficit

:12:32.:12:36.

by 2020, that is what you mean. If he needs to cushion the Brexit

:12:37.:12:40.

impact, if there is one, I don't think we could pay off the deficit

:12:41.:12:44.

by 2020. Then you'll have all of this money to do what you want with.

:12:45.:12:50.

Final thought? There is also the attitude about business and the

:12:51.:12:53.

attitude to the super rich and well. I think Theresa May will concentrate

:12:54.:12:57.

on that more than David Cameron, alleviating concerns. The Autumn

:12:58.:13:00.

Statement from the Chancellor will be as big as any of the statements

:13:01.:13:05.

we hear this week. I am glad to hear it, it will be coming up live on a

:13:06.:13:07.

Daily Politics special. at the Conservative Party

:13:08.:13:10.

conference here in Birmingham. Fear not, I'll be back tomorrow

:13:11.:13:13.

at 11am for a two-hour special as Chancellor Philip Hammond

:13:14.:13:16.

takes to the stage. We are back on Tuesday and Wednesday

:13:17.:13:23.

bringing Theresa May's speech on Wednesday just before lunch. We will

:13:24.:13:27.

be back next Sunday as well. In the meantime, remember -

:13:28.:13:29.

if it's Sunday, it's

:13:30.:13:32.

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