02/10/2016 Sunday Politics


02/10/2016

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This programme contains some flashing images.

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We're live from sunny Birmingham on day one of

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the Conservative Party Conference, where, three months after Britain

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voted to leave the European Union, the Prime Minister has given

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us her first inkling of how she plans to do it.

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Morning, folks - welcome to the Sunday Politics.

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Theresa May says she will trigger Article 50, starting the two year

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process of negotiations that will culminate in Britain

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leaving the EU, before the end of March next year.

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So Brexit by Easter 2019 - but what kind of relationship

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A Great Repeal Bill will also be voted on next Spring,

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but won't be enacted until we leave, at which point EU laws will be

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And what do Conservative MPs want to hear from their new leader?

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We catch up with a Brexiteer and a Remainer as they pack

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In the capital, if London was defined by the conservatism of the

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Notting Hill set, what now? We explore the potential rise of Sidcup

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Man. So far no Great Repeal Act to get

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rid of the Sunday Politics Panel - Steve Richards, Rachel Sylvester

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and Tom Newton Dunn. It's 100 days since we voted

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to leave the EU and the clamour has grown for the Government to tell us

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what Brexit would look like. This morning, as the Tory faithful

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gather in Birmingham, we still don't expect to be told

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what Brexit means but we do know more about the timetable

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and the extrication process. A Bill will go before parliament

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this spring to repeal the 1972 European Communities Act,

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which legalised our membership But it won't actually come

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into force until we leave. Theresa May also told

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the Andrew Marr Show that Article 50 would be invoked

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by March of next year - starting the two year process

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of renegotiation before we leave. I have been saying we would not

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trigger it before the end of this year, so that we get confirmation in

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place. I will be saying in my speech today that we will trigger before

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the end of March next year. The remaining members of the EU have to

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decide what the process of negotiation is. I hope, and I will

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be saying to them, that now they know what the time is going to be,

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it is not an exact date, but they know it will be the first quarter of

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next year, that we will be able to have some preparatory work so that

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once the trigger comes we have a smoother process of negotiation.

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Theresa May, on this channel, just over an hour ago. What do you make

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of it? Saggy as you said, we know more about when but we don't know

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what Brexit is going to be. We don't know how the relationship will work

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out, we don't know what the Prime Minister's negotiation position will

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be, we haven't worked out anything about the free market access and

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freedom of movement. All of the substance. It is a significant

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announcement but we don't actually know anything really big about what

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our lives are going to be like in future. Is there a risk from the

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Prime Minister? Is there a risk putting this before Parliament to

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repeal the 1972 Communities Act? Undoubtedly. Anything you put before

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the House of Commons or the House of Lords, where there is no Tory

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majority, let alone a Brexit majority, risks getting amended. She

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runs the risk. There is also a risk of not saying this, not having the

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greater appeal, which is actually a great repeal act, when is being

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repealed, but she needed to throw the Tory right red meat, and they

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got it this morning. There is always the potential of a constitutional

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crisis. If the Lords were to dig in over this, or even digging over

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Article 50, demand a vote on that, lawyers are arguing whether you need

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it or not, it may not be plain sailing when you have a majority of

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12? It definitely isn't going to be with a majority of 12. The scope for

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constitutional crisis is many. Clashes with the Lords, clashes with

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the Commons, Scotland is still there in the background allows a

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significant factor. It will always be there, but perhaps in a different

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context. I don't think this will be the trigger for a constitutional

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crisis. You have to admire the elegant choreography. I was told

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ages ago that she knew she could not keep carry on saying Brexit means

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Brexit, there will have to be new lines. This is beautiful. We kind of

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knew that Article 50 was going to be triggered early in next year. David

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Davis even said that. It was a fair bet it would be before Easter. They

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couldn't spend the next two years negotiating Brexit and refocusing

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the entire legislative programme to spend the next two years rejigging

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the mountain of legislation we are affected with. They have turned a

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logistical, unavoidable inevitability into a sense of

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momentum this weekend. Very clever presentation. There are going to be

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huge crises to come over this. Picking off the 1972 Act, putting it

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all into British law and legislation, rather than dependent

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on Europe, that is what the Brexiteers wanted. To that extent,

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she has thrown them a bit of red meat today? Yes, but we still don't

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know what Brexit is going to be. But a bit of red meat keeps you going

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for a while. Maybe get them through to lunch time. Today or tomorrow?

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Really just today. The tactic is to get some stuff about Brexit out, get

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them talking about that and then move onto agenda she wants,

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domestic. What do you think? Good luck with that! Are you reading my

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script coming up? It was on the autocue, I'm sorry! Clearly, she is

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accessed about not making his premiership all about Brexit. It

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will be, but she is desperate. She needs to define herself away from

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Brexit, who is Theresa May, what did she really believe? We have heard

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whispers, but the next few days as a chance to do that. The fringe, Liam

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Fox is talking at two fringes. Two opportunities for a story. David

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Davis as well. These two men of great talent and potentially great

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ego, they will not be able to stop themselves having feelings heard.

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And Boris. Boris who? I have not seen him on the fringes. Fringe

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meetings have been quite dull at party conferences recently. Because

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of this issue, I think people are going to pack them out. That is

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where words might be said, explosive words. We live for fringe meetings!

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The PM hopes her announcement will deal with Brexit on day one

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so the conference can get on to talk about other matters.

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But as you can see from this not so slim tome - the conference guide-

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there are plenty of other issues to talk, maybe even argue about.

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Our Ellie caught up with two Tory MPs from different sides

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of the party before they set off, to see what they think lies in store

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# Just can't wait to get on the road again

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# The life I love is making music with my friends

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# And I can't wait to get on the road again...#

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Do you actually enjoy going to conference?

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It's not as much fun as when you're not an MP,

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because now people want to talk to you and everybody

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But do you make contacts, do you network?

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Do think Theresa May gets nervous about conference,

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I think if you are performing on a big stage, whoever you are,

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you ought to have a few nerves jangling around.

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But she's a polished performer, I'm sure she'll know

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Theresa May will also know she has several contentious issues she needs

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It is perhaps not surprising, then, that day one of

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We're pretty well balanced between those of us like myself,

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representing constituencies with really high levels

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of research, science and agriculture, who will be very

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keen, but probably pragmatically understanding that we are not

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going to hear everything tomorrow, and the rest

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of the party who are just desperate for information.

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If they don't think the deal is going in the right way,

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they will want to say something about it.

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I think the time frame is pretty clear.

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We are going to trigger Article 50 at some point relatively

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That means we will get the negotiations done a good year

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The rest is going to be important meat on the bones.

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But, in terms of the core strategy, Theresa May goes into this

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So, a unified front, albeit perhaps fragile.

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But then there is the question of grammar schools.

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Depends whether we hear more about it.

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You know, the concept in its one-dimensional sense,

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you can't have a problem with that, can you?

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Giving parents choice, giving bright children the chance

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But, for me, for many of us, it has to be a package

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Our teachers are pretty stressed and overworked

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I'm not actually sure this is the right time.

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I would rather see emphasis being put on fairer funding.

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Constituencies like mine have been underfunded for decades.

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If you go into politics and government scared

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of your own shadow, unprepared to do anything bold or brave,

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I think there is no risk-free option.

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Of course, people have different views on grammar schools

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and it is a totemic political issue as well.

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But I think if you read the green paper, the Prime Minister has set

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out a very sensible, carefully calibrated approach,

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not just to grammar schools but the wider

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The new PM also faces big strategic decisions on expensive projects

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like airport expansion, an area even her Cabinet

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With all these big infrastructure projects, HS2, Heathrow,

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issues around fracking, nuclear as well, I think we have got

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to take the right decisions for the country, make sure Britain

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Each one of those is thorny in its own right.

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But what I think is most important is we look at it very carefully,

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That is where we all start to see the metal in Theresa,

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Whilst on the one hand, having a Prime Minister -

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nobody could have been more delighted than me that we managed

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to cut the tax credits changes - but having a Prime Minister

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that sticks to her guns, I'm not for U-turning,

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How confident are you, going to this conference,

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that it is all going to be sorted and you are going to be

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Well, people predicted an economic nosedive after the referendum.

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People said there would be political chaos.

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Actually, the economy has proved resilient.

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I think there is a sense of resolve on all sides of the party

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on all of these different issues to get behind this Prime Minister

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Last year, you got into a bit of trouble, being quite vocal

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Some suggestion you weren't a proper conservative.

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I think I am absolutely a proper conservative.

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I think my party needed reminding what conservative was.

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Our job is to help people who need a leg up.

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Her opening speech in Downing Street told me she absolutely is.

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Like all of these things, we will hear more about this week.

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# And I can't wait to get on the road again. #

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And we're joined now by the Transport Secretary,

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who was a leading Leave campaigner, Chris Grayling.

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Welcome back to the programme. The great repeal act, what exactly does

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it repeal? It repeal the 1972 European Communities Act. It means

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the European Court of Justice no longer has sway in the United

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Kingdom. It means the European Commission and Parliament no longer

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make laws for us. As of today, in our system, European law is supreme

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over UK law, and it repeal that. Except what it does is it

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consolidates all existing European legislation into British law. It

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would be more accurate to call it the great Consolidation act? Is This

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is what I argued for during the League campaign. The remaining

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campaign said you could not do it, it will take years, it will be a

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disaster. My response then is what it is now, the best way to do it is

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to consolidate existing legislation, much of which we will want to keep,

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the environmental measures, the workers' rights measures, what we

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want to do is to make sure we can get certainty before the event and

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after the event, for workers, businesses, but what the legal

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position will be. Over time, we have the freedom, outside the European

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Union, free from the control of the European Court, to change our legal

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system in the way that we want. It does mean we would leave the EU with

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all of this EU law still part of British law. Now, what would you

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wish to change in the aftermath? There is a whole variety of

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different things we will be looking at a change. For example, if you

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want a practical one, it is unlikely that after we have left the European

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Union we will still be paying child benefits to children that have never

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even entered the United Kingdom. That is the kind of thing we will be

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free to change after we have left. What else? Much of it we will want

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to keep, environmental measures, not all that has been done in the

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European Union for 40 years has been bad for Britain. How long will it

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take to pick all of this after we leave? Will be down to the

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Government to decide... Ten years? 20 years? It will take it as long as

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we choose. What is right and proper is that on the day after there is a

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degree of certainty for businesses. It would not be fair for a company

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to be operating under a set of rules, for there to be a cliff edge

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where they do not know what is going to happen the day after. Let's make

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it an evolution, not a revolution. A lot of the things you have to agree

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to enter negotiations mean it will have to remain law even after we

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leave? This clearly the case that if a business in this country is

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continuing to sell a product in the European Union, it will have to make

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the standards of the European Union. Those rules will apply. That is the

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same if we're selling to the United States, the rules of the United

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States would apply to a business planning to sell a product there.

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What happens if you lose the vote? It is inconceivable that Parliament

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can look at the view of the British public and ignore it. Parliament

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voted overwhelmingly for the referendum to take place in the

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first place, the people have given a mandate and I am certain Parliament

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will fulfil it. What would happen? You have a

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majority of only 12 and there was a majority for remain in the Commons

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and there is a large majority in the house of lords. If the parliament

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does not seamlessly agree for what you call the great repeal act, what

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would happen? Both houses are full of Democrats and they will respect

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the will of the people. But we could be faced with a constitutional

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crisis? We have taken the decision to leave and parliament voted for

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the referendum and it is inconceivable that Parliament would

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not allow that process to go forward. If the inconceivable

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happen, you'd have to cores and -- call an election. Inconceivable is a

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bit of a stretch. Plenty of voices, particularly in the House of Lords,

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would use this as a an opportunity to thwart you. And I don't think the

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House of Lords will turn around and say we should not fulfil that. There

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may be dissenting voices but they will view it as a democratic mandate

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that we have to fulfil. Has your party don soundings in the Commons

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to make sure you can get this through? I've not been involved in

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that discussion but parliament will respond to the will of the people.

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That's the way this country works. That's what you hope. We shall see

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how it works. We've been told by the Prime Minister this morning that

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article 50 will be triggered by the end of March. That means that we are

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out by Easter 2019. Can you confirm that those British members of the

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European Parliament currently in Strasberg, there will be no more for

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them after this. If we have left by the end of the two-year period. It

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is technically possible to extend it. After that period, there

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wouldn't be EP is after that point in 2019. -- MEPs. For Brexit to mean

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Brexit, the famous phrase, which is basically tautology. It would mean

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the freedom to have our own trade laws. It would mean the ability to

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do that? You are leading me to answer questions about the specific

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legal structures. It means our own free-trade deals? Correct. It would

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mean we are no longer subject to the rules of the European Court of

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Justice. Also correct. And we would have whatever control we desire over

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immigration? The Prime Minister has been clear that we need to control

:19:34.:19:36.

the flow of immigration into the country. Any of these counts as out

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from being a member of the single market. So can we agree that there

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is no way we can remain a member of the single market? There is no such

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thing as a member of the single market. There are a number of

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different trading agreements within the EU. We are effectively a member

:19:57.:20:02.

of the single market now but we can't be after this. The question

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you have asked me, do we want to be Norway, Switzerland, Canada when it

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comes to trading arrangements? We want to be the United Kingdom. We

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are the biggest customer of German car-makers, French farmers... I

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don't want to have the referendum fight again. It seems as black as

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black or as White is white that if you want all of that we cannot be a

:20:32.:20:36.

member, we can have access on terms yet to be agreed, we will have a

:20:37.:20:41.

relationship, but why cannot you say that we won't be a member in the way

:20:42.:20:45.

that we are currently a member of the single market? We won't be a

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member of the European Union but there is no such thing as a member

:20:52.:20:57.

of the single market. There is no single market in services, for

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example. There is but it is not as developed as goods. I believe we

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will end up with a trading partnership with the European Union

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on terms to be agreed that will work for both of us. Access but not

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membership. You cannot be a fully paid-up member of the single market

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without the European Court of Justice ruling on it and you don't

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want that. I don't understand your problem. Your pre-merging --

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prejudging the outcome of negotiations. We want the best

:21:35.:21:38.

possible trading arrangements with European neighbours and that is what

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we will work towards. Where different to the other countries

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that have been involved in these negotiations before. We have heard

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all that before in the referendum and we wanted some clarity on what

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it would mean. Transport, when will you give is the decision on runway

:21:56.:22:01.

expansion? I'm not going to set a date today. I've spent the summer

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looking at the three different options. We have three very well

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presented packages. The airport commission has looked at it

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carefully and the Prime Minister and I want to understand the options in

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detail and understand the strengths and weaknesses of each and we will

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reach our decision shortly. I'm not going to set a date on it. Shortly

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means in this year, surely. I don't want to wait unnecessarily long to

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take the decision but nor do I want to set a date so to to work towards

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that. Will there be a free vote? I need to identify the best option for

:22:43.:22:46.

Britain and take the best possible approach to get the support of

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parliament Porritt. Will there be a free vote? Decisions have not been

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taken but we will do the best for the interests of the country.

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Theresa May has said the options for an expansion to Heathrow are

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seriously flawed. Philip Hammond has described the Heathrow option as

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dead as a Norwegian parrot. Can you be sure that the Prime Minister and

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Anna Chancellor will vote for your proposal? We are looking at three

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options that are very new. One of them is Heathrow. Warrant -- they

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are very different options to what has been proposed in the past. They

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are all very well crafted proposals. They are interesting and have

:23:44.:23:48.

potential and we need to decide. That is why I am asking you. HS2,

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high-speed train, can you state categorically it will go ahead? It's

:23:57.:24:01.

due to start construction in the spring. The hybrids Bill Haas to

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continue its passage through the house of law -- the hybrid Bill Haas

:24:06.:24:15.

to continue through its passage in the house of lords. Will it be 2026?

:24:16.:24:29.

Will it be on-time and on budget? The select committee of MPs said it

:24:30.:24:34.

is unlikely and will certainly be over budget. I expected be

:24:35.:24:47.

absolutely clear and on -- expected to be absolutely on-time and on

:24:48.:24:52.

budget. The latest estimate for phase one, the core cast is ?14

:24:53.:24:57.

billion but there is contingency on top of that. How much? It is set to

:24:58.:25:06.

Treasury rules. It is always going to be over. If you really believed

:25:07.:25:12.

in the Northern powerhouse wouldn't this money be better spent instead

:25:13.:25:20.

of making it quicker to come to and Birmingham from London in under 90

:25:21.:25:25.

minutes, which you already can, wouldn't it be better to spend the

:25:26.:25:30.

money on state of the art road links between East and West in the north.

:25:31.:25:46.

I think we need to do both. We can't get more freight onto rail without

:25:47.:25:52.

creating more space. By taking fast trains off the West Coast main line

:25:53.:25:58.

which is already busy and put fast freight trains onto the new route,

:25:59.:26:04.

you create more capacity for places like Milton Keynes Dons Northampton,

:26:05.:26:07.

Coventry. It is about making sure we have a transport system that can

:26:08.:26:13.

cope with the demands of the 21st-century. Thank you very much.

:26:14.:26:16.

Now, as we speak, voters in Hungary are going to the polls to vote

:26:17.:26:20.

on whether to accept mandatory EU quotas for relocating migrants.

:26:21.:26:22.

The country's government has been campaigning for voters to reject

:26:23.:26:25.

the EU's proposals and has run a highly controversial campaign,

:26:26.:26:27.

accusing migrants of terrorism and crime - and the Prime Minister

:26:28.:26:30.

Viktor Orban has said today he'll quit if the country votes

:26:31.:26:32.

In response to the ongoing migrant crisis, the EU wants to establish

:26:33.:26:37.

a permanent European resettlement programme, under which,

:26:38.:26:39.

member states must take their fair share of asylum seekers,

:26:40.:26:41.

depending on the size of each country's population and economy.

:26:42.:26:45.

If countries refuse, the European Commission has proposed

:26:46.:26:47.

that they would incur a financial penalty of 250,000 euros per person,

:26:48.:26:52.

to cover the cost of another country taking them.

:26:53.:26:57.

Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said the plan

:26:58.:26:59.

Last year, Hungary rejected an emergency EU plan that would have

:27:00.:27:04.

seen tens of thousands of refugees transferred out of the country

:27:05.:27:08.

in return for accepting a quota of almost 1300 refugees

:27:09.:27:11.

As an EU border country, Hungary has received 18,500

:27:12.:27:17.

In 2015, it received the most asylum applications relative

:27:18.:27:24.

to its population of any EU state - 1800 for every 100,000 local people,

:27:25.:27:29.

though the majority of those then travelled onwards to other

:27:30.:27:32.

Although the referendum result will have no affect

:27:33.:27:39.

on the EU's decision, the Hungarian government hopes

:27:40.:27:41.

the weight of public opinion will help it resist the plans,

:27:42.:27:44.

running a very controversial referendum campaign.

:27:45.:27:47.

For example, this poster saying migrants carried out

:27:48.:27:49.

We're joined now from Budapest by our Correspondent, Nick Thorpe.

:27:50.:27:57.

I understand that the polls are pretty clear that the government

:27:58.:28:05.

will win this referendum but it needs a turnout of at least 50% for

:28:06.:28:10.

it to matter. What indication of turnout so far? As of 11am, turnout

:28:11.:28:21.

was just over 16% of the electorate. We have an electrode of 8.3 million,

:28:22.:28:26.

the government is campaigning strongly for a no vote. The

:28:27.:28:32.

government have framed the question in such a way that it is hard to

:28:33.:28:38.

vote, yes, we do want this imposed on us. The issue of turnout is

:28:39.:28:50.

important because the opposition have campaigned not to vote or to

:28:51.:28:58.

spoil votes. Even if the government wins on the numbers, if more people

:28:59.:29:03.

vote against the quotas, is it a symbolic defeat for the government

:29:04.:29:09.

if that was to happen? Some people will argue it would be a symbolic

:29:10.:29:16.

defeat if they don't get 50%. We've heard that ministers are backing off

:29:17.:29:21.

the whole issue of turnout. They are hoping for at least 3 million people

:29:22.:29:28.

to vote. Even 4 million which would be the 50%, voting no to migrant

:29:29.:29:34.

quotas. They say that all of those votes will give them a strong moral

:29:35.:29:39.

hand. In the words of the Prime Minister, it will sharpen the

:29:40.:29:42.

Hungarian sword in the battles ahead. Thank you very much.

:29:43.:29:47.

Malin Bjork is Swedish MEP and Vice Chair of

:29:48.:29:50.

the Confederal Group of the European United Left

:29:51.:29:52.

Welcome to the programme. The quota system proposed already seem to be

:29:53.:30:07.

dying if the Hungarians vote the way they are expected to today, that

:30:08.:30:12.

will kill it, will it not? I think we should have it as a point of

:30:13.:30:19.

departure whether we have seen that Hungary is a model in any of the

:30:20.:30:25.

fields that we want hungry -- Europe to be. I don't think Hungary is the

:30:26.:30:31.

model. I don't think we should give him the kind of weight that he

:30:32.:30:36.

actually claims. He wants more weight to this referendum. I don't

:30:37.:30:38.

think we should give it to him. It is not just Hungary, is it? There

:30:39.:30:50.

are meant to be 100,000 migrants covered by the quota system, fewer

:30:51.:30:54.

than 5% have been covered by it. It is just not happening, whether

:30:55.:31:00.

Hungary votes for or against? No, it is totally... But that means it is

:31:01.:31:04.

not operational, it is simply not working. There are serious

:31:05.:31:07.

criticisms to have towards implementing partners in this. But I

:31:08.:31:11.

do think when it comes to the political course, Hungary is playing

:31:12.:31:16.

a very dangerous, racist and right nationalist game. I don't think we

:31:17.:31:21.

should adapt to it. If it comes to it, we have to be prepared to be

:31:22.:31:26.

behind those that do not want to be the Europe that is taking

:31:27.:31:29.

responsibility globally. Let me clarify what you mean by that. The

:31:30.:31:34.

Foreign Minister of Luxembourg has already said that Hungary should be

:31:35.:31:38.

expelled from the European Union. Is that what you are saying as well?

:31:39.:31:45.

No, no. You know what I think? As a progressive politician on the left

:31:46.:31:49.

side, I do have a lot of criticisms to the European Union. But there are

:31:50.:31:54.

planets apart from the kind of models that Viktor Orban is trying

:31:55.:32:00.

to build, where he does not respect human rights, laws and media

:32:01.:32:04.

freedoms, and now he attacks refugee rights. Given all of that, let's

:32:05.:32:09.

accept what you say is true about that, others may dispute it, but

:32:10.:32:14.

let's accept that as true, why should Hungary remain a member of

:32:15.:32:18.

the European Union? Well, it is up to each country that has voted to

:32:19.:32:22.

stay, and voted to become members, voting to stay, I don't think Orban

:32:23.:32:29.

has any intention of leaving EU. I think he wants more influence in the

:32:30.:32:32.

EU. I think he wants more influence domestic league through the

:32:33.:32:35.

referendum and more influence in the EU. The question the rest of the

:32:36.:32:38.

countries have to ask themselves is if we are going to give it to him or

:32:39.:32:43.

adapt to his politics in any of these fields he is active in? I

:32:44.:32:46.

think we should make a stand against it. We should have political forces

:32:47.:32:50.

in other countries that have exactly the same kind of agendas, which we

:32:51.:32:56.

don't want to see strengthened. Isn't the problem that may be

:32:57.:33:00.

Hungary is on the trend, and you are not? We have seem the right, some

:33:01.:33:05.

may call it the far right even, on the march in Austria, Poland and in

:33:06.:33:10.

Hungary, even in Germany, with the recent elections in Berlin and

:33:11.:33:15.

Angela Merkel's backyard, even progressive social Democratic

:33:16.:33:17.

Sweden, your third biggest party is now the Sweden, Democrats, a hard

:33:18.:33:26.

right nativist party. Why are forces on the move, and while the forces

:33:27.:33:31.

used and four on the defensive? The more progressive forces, I think

:33:32.:33:35.

they are growing in many countries also, such as Spain, Ireland and

:33:36.:33:39.

other countries. It is not just for the left, it is for the broader

:33:40.:33:43.

political spectrum to counteract nationalist, right-wing and racist

:33:44.:33:47.

forces. We know where they lead, a dead end. It is a challenge in the

:33:48.:33:52.

European countries. Why is Europe going in this direction? In 2016,

:33:53.:33:56.

why are the forces of the rights so strong? To be honest, I think we

:33:57.:34:06.

have to be a little bit more humble and say are we failing people in

:34:07.:34:10.

some way? Yes, austerity policies are not working. Inequalities have

:34:11.:34:15.

grown for over 20 years in Europe. Of course it is a failure. We are

:34:16.:34:20.

capable of saving banks, but not refugees. People see this. It is

:34:21.:34:24.

political failure and I think we have to sit down and create

:34:25.:34:27.

different pacifists. What is happening now is worrying. I see

:34:28.:34:31.

some of the political forces in Europe. -- create different

:34:32.:34:36.

patterns. I see parties in Europe adapting to racism nationalist

:34:37.:34:45.

voices. I think we have to be the different parties that will not

:34:46.:34:48.

adapt to nationalist stories. They paint imaginary enemies. A huge

:34:49.:34:55.

chunk of Hungary's public spending comes from the European Union, net

:34:56.:35:00.

contributors like Sweden and the United Kingdom. If Hungary votes

:35:01.:35:04.

this way, should that continue? Should we continue to bankroll it?

:35:05.:35:11.

The way Europe and the European Union, individual members develop,

:35:12.:35:14.

of course we should lead discussions about money and heel spending to the

:35:15.:35:20.

respect for rule of law, the respect for human rights and the respect for

:35:21.:35:26.

international rights that are being infringed by the Hungarian

:35:27.:35:29.

government. Of course, we have to have such a discussion and it has to

:35:30.:35:31.

be frank. It's just gone 11.35,

:35:32.:35:34.

you're watching the Sunday Politics. We say goodbye to viewers

:35:35.:35:36.

in Scotland who leave us now I think he is going to do

:35:37.:35:39.

a much better job than And we're joined now by the former

:35:40.:58:47.

Work and Pensions Secretary and Leave campaigner,

:58:48.:59:07.

Iain Duncan Smith. it you said we could be out of the

:59:08.:59:24.

European Union by 2018? My senses if you keep their process as simple as

:59:25.:59:29.

possible and don't try to get special pleading and try to be a

:59:30.:59:32.

member of the single market which they are not going to grant you, if

:59:33.:59:37.

you go for a clear and simple position on trade and find an

:59:38.:59:43.

agreement then the more complex issues then disappear. Theresa May

:59:44.:59:51.

has said that when she brings the act forward to repeal the 1972 act,

:59:52.:59:58.

at the same time you binding the European Law and you speed the

:59:59.:00:03.

process up. Keeping it simple, keeping up pace is what we

:00:04.:00:07.

recommended. It allows you to get the end point quicker.

:00:08.:00:12.

You talk about member of the single market, Chris Grayling told me there

:00:13.:00:18.

was no such thing, which slightly puzzled me. You clearly think that

:00:19.:00:25.

there is. What you want, as I understand it, is a free-trade

:00:26.:00:28.

agreement with the European Union. That could not be done by 2018? We

:00:29.:00:33.

want free trade. There are two approaches to getting free trade

:00:34.:00:35.

with the European Union. The first is that you say, OK, in this

:00:36.:00:42.

process, if we sympathise and ask ourselves, if we now have a new

:00:43.:00:47.

relationship, we have left, we want capital goods, we want to access

:00:48.:00:53.

each other's markets, it benefits you more than us, but we are happy

:00:54.:00:56.

not to have tariff barriers on your trade, we have an agreement of no

:00:57.:01:00.

tariff barriers. Financial services are outside, a separate issue, more

:01:01.:01:06.

of a regulatory issue. That is also approaching a deal on equivalence

:01:07.:01:09.

that we could accelerate. The point I am saying is if you do not go down

:01:10.:01:14.

the road trying to nominate individual bits and pieces and say

:01:15.:01:17.

it is a good agreement for us both, you could reach that by agreement.

:01:18.:01:21.

If you don't and you can't, you could fall back on the WTO

:01:22.:01:27.

arrangements and say, well, later on, we will continue that

:01:28.:01:29.

negotiation discussion to decide whether or not we want a free-trade

:01:30.:01:35.

position. If you fall back on that, what you say to the boss of Nissan,

:01:36.:01:39.

who says he will not invest again in this unless the government back row

:01:40.:01:45.

compensates him, he faces tariffs? The answer to that is that first of

:01:46.:01:49.

all I did not believe we will end up in a situation where it is, in any

:01:50.:01:53.

way, a financial benefit for the European Union to want to impose any

:01:54.:01:58.

kind tariff. Right now you are 12% better off anyway. The level of the

:01:59.:02:04.

pound has made it 12% more competitive with European partners,

:02:05.:02:08.

even if you slapped on 10% tariff. It goes up and down, but you asking

:02:09.:02:13.

him to take investment decisions, multi-billion pound decisions, head

:02:14.:02:17.

of Jaguar, saying roughly the same thing, at a time of real

:02:18.:02:27.

uncertainty. Until it is resolved, investment in Britain will slow

:02:28.:02:31.

down, if not dry up? They invest because this is a darn good place to

:02:32.:02:34.

sell your businesses. You heard from the head of the publishing sector in

:02:35.:02:37.

Germany, he said Britain in five years' time will be much more

:02:38.:02:41.

profitable than anywhere else and will be the boom place. Outside the

:02:42.:02:49.

European Union it will be more flexible to set out arrangements. I

:02:50.:02:52.

am with him on this. I was in business before I came into

:02:53.:02:57.

politics. Nobody knows what the future holds for anything. For car

:02:58.:03:01.

makers and others that want to build stuff, they are here because they

:03:02.:03:05.

want a flexible workforce, much lower levels of cost, and a much

:03:06.:03:11.

better contract law base. 85% of Nissan's output goes to the single

:03:12.:03:15.

market. That is right, they also sell here. 15%? You are not suddenly

:03:16.:03:21.

going to meet a massive tariff wall, a closet is not in the interests of

:03:22.:03:25.

the European Union to set up a massive tariffs. Guess who sells

:03:26.:03:29.

more to us than we do to them? The European Union. The Germans

:03:30.:03:33.

themselves are behind-the-scenes talking to us. We had a lot of that

:03:34.:03:37.

during the referendum. Let me move onto some other things. Damian Green

:03:38.:03:42.

is now running your old department. He is scrapping repeated tests for

:03:43.:03:46.

the seriously disabled, people that you know are not going to be able to

:03:47.:03:53.

improve. Why didn't you do that? We wanted to change this, it was a

:03:54.:03:58.

programme given to us by the last Labour government, we did quite a

:03:59.:04:01.

lot to improve it. The big problem, the programme as it exists at the

:04:02.:04:05.

moment, it does not deal with health conditions, it deals with ability to

:04:06.:04:08.

work. That is the problem. If you want to scrap it for people with

:04:09.:04:12.

health conditions, you have to change the criteria by which they

:04:13.:04:15.

are being assessed. That has always been the issue. For disability

:04:16.:04:28.

payments, it is a different matter. They are assessed on their

:04:29.:04:30.

condition. The problem for that... He will stop the assessments of

:04:31.:04:32.

people that are seriously disabled, why didn't you do that? This is not

:04:33.:04:35.

seriously disabled, it is people that suffer from sickness

:04:36.:04:36.

conditions, not necessarily full-time disability. There are two

:04:37.:04:41.

elements. When I was in Government, we have always set out a process

:04:42.:04:44.

that said we needed to change the way the sickness benefit system was

:04:45.:04:50.

assessed. That was so you could rule out conditions, some progressive,

:04:51.:04:53.

some absolute, on a medical basis, on the approval of the Health

:04:54.:04:58.

Service, so they would say this is a condition that will change, it will

:04:59.:05:01.

mean they cannot work now but they might be able to work for a bit. You

:05:02.:05:05.

put it into a box marked medical conditions. That was already on the

:05:06.:05:10.

box. He has just done that, to acclaim. Why didn't you do it, if it

:05:11.:05:16.

is that simple? We needed to get agreement in Government and we have

:05:17.:05:19.

not reached the Provo ease approval. It is a wider plan. This could have

:05:20.:05:25.

been incremented on its own? But you have to change the way you do it. I

:05:26.:05:32.

was in favour of a bigger plan that brought in changes all into one,

:05:33.:05:35.

because they are competing with each other and do not have the kind of

:05:36.:05:39.

effect that you want. It is the right thing to do. Until now, there

:05:40.:05:43.

have not been a huge number of assessments taking place because the

:05:44.:05:46.

system has not been able to cover it. There is a lot of talk about

:05:47.:05:53.

trying to reposition the Tory party on the centre ground, even the

:05:54.:05:57.

centre-left, talking about worker's rights and so on. It is not credible

:05:58.:06:04.

until she does something. 6 million people earn less than the Living

:06:05.:06:07.

Wage, after six years of Conservative government. 6 million

:06:08.:06:10.

people earn less than the Living Wage. That is the reality, not Tory

:06:11.:06:15.

erect a wreck that we are hearing in the hall. -- that is the Tory

:06:16.:06:25.

rhetoric. Raising the minimum wage was making sure that you identify

:06:26.:06:31.

that and raise the blood. There are still 6 million below. The mantra of

:06:32.:06:36.

this government was to make work pay. 50% of families in poverty have

:06:37.:06:44.

at least one family member working. They are still in poverty, waiting,

:06:45.:06:49.

doing difficult and unpleasant jobs, long hours, they are still in

:06:50.:06:55.

poverty. Many people in this country work and still it is the equivalent

:06:56.:07:02.

of poverty. That does not pay, work does not pay for them. Huge problems

:07:03.:07:06.

down the low skill level of work. This is the one area, the level of

:07:07.:07:15.

skills at that point is arguably some of the lowest in the Western

:07:16.:07:21.

world. Companies too often do not invest in skills because of the

:07:22.:07:24.

nature of the tax credit system, you have them in packets of 16 hours, it

:07:25.:07:28.

is not worth investing. Universal Credit will change all of that quite

:07:29.:07:32.

dramatically. It allows people to work more of the hours, invest more

:07:33.:07:37.

in them. The second aspect is back to the migration issue. That has had

:07:38.:07:40.

a very damaging effect on low workers. There are two elements of

:07:41.:07:46.

this. It is not just the statutory migration, it is that what happened

:07:47.:07:49.

is that a lot of people come for under one year. They do part-time

:07:50.:07:56.

work, they claim full benefits, Migration Watch proved it is over 4

:07:57.:08:00.

billion per year. That allows them to go and do cash in hand work. It

:08:01.:08:05.

is a big problem, it has only now become clear how damaging that has

:08:06.:08:09.

become to British people working at low income level. What does this

:08:10.:08:14.

party, if it is this self-styled Workers Party, what does it have to

:08:15.:08:19.

do in a country where 6 million people get less than the Living

:08:20.:08:23.

Wage, 50% of people in poverty are already in work and poverty levels

:08:24.:08:27.

among those in work are at record levels. So much for the worker's

:08:28.:08:39.

party? The answer is it has to do a lot, we have been talking about

:08:40.:08:43.

Brexit a lot, Theresa May has dropped a lot of hints about what

:08:44.:08:48.

she wants to do. The announcement yesterday morning about this massive

:08:49.:08:53.

review, led by a Blairite, Matthew Taylor, to completely re-examine

:08:54.:08:58.

employment rights. Thereby meaning, for the low paid and the casual

:08:59.:09:05.

workers, holiday pay for Uber drivers, it opens a massive area of

:09:06.:09:12.

things, grammar schools... You need high-quality technology schools to

:09:13.:09:23.

up-skill its? She has all of this on her agenda, possibly more

:09:24.:09:28.

interesting than even Brexit. I was planning not to mention Brexit in

:09:29.:09:33.

this segment, but I think I did. There was a lot of flesh to be put

:09:34.:09:37.

on his bones before it is convincing? Theresa May is playing a

:09:38.:09:44.

political game of trying to dump the nasty party image, become a more

:09:45.:09:48.

compassionate conservative. She is changing from the David Cameron era,

:09:49.:09:54.

instead of being the bottom 10% or 15% of people that he was focusing

:09:55.:09:59.

on, as well as the wealthier elite, she is looking at the people earning

:10:00.:10:04.

more than ?16,000, up to ?21,000, those who have children that are not

:10:05.:10:09.

on free school meals, not the most deprived, she calls them the just

:10:10.:10:14.

managing classes, they might have one for holiday each year, they

:10:15.:10:17.

might want to send their kids to piano lessons or the local Football

:10:18.:10:21.

Club, they are not the poorest people on welfare. That could have

:10:22.:10:26.

an impact on what you're saying, it could also undermine her reputation

:10:27.:10:29.

for being compassionate if she is seen to be abandoning the people

:10:30.:10:34.

that need help most. There is always a political case for doing something

:10:35.:10:37.

for Middle Britain, where most people are. They call at Middle

:10:38.:10:41.

America over there and so on. But these are not the in work but in

:10:42.:10:48.

poverty. Being a worker's party, one that dines out on its support for

:10:49.:10:52.

work, if it is to do anything, it has to do something about these

:10:53.:10:57.

people? The key issue is what the economic policies are in this new

:10:58.:11:03.

government. Nobody on the programme this morning has talked about the

:11:04.:11:06.

deficit, which George Osborne framed everything around, to the point

:11:07.:11:15.

where, as they know better than anyone, he struggles to get welfare

:11:16.:11:18.

reforms affected because of our budget cuts that hit those on low

:11:19.:11:23.

income in work. Until we know the degree to which the framing of that

:11:24.:11:28.

deficit strategy has changed, we will not really know the space they

:11:29.:11:32.

will have to make sure that does not happen over the next few years and

:11:33.:11:36.

the opposite happens. That applies to all of these issues, actually.

:11:37.:11:41.

The economy will provide the space, or not, to do these things. The

:11:42.:11:48.

Treasury is telling the Chancellor that the slowdown in the economy,

:11:49.:11:52.

not as slow as they thought, but still a slowdown, that, in itself,

:11:53.:11:56.

will widen the deficit. Therefore, he is not going to have a tonne of

:11:57.:12:01.

money to throw around on top of that, which would widen the deficit

:12:02.:12:04.

even further. There is room for manoeuvre which may be quite slight?

:12:05.:12:10.

Not quite true. He has abandoned George Osborne's fiscal targets.

:12:11.:12:15.

Having already taken this into account by what they think is the

:12:16.:12:18.

slowing of the economy. They have been wrong in the past, but that is

:12:19.:12:21.

why they have done that. There is not a turn of money around to spend

:12:22.:12:26.

billions on infrastructure, unless, of course, like Mr Corbyn, you want

:12:27.:12:31.

to borrow it. When you say you are not going to eradicate the deficit

:12:32.:12:36.

by 2020, that is what you mean. If he needs to cushion the Brexit

:12:37.:12:40.

impact, if there is one, I don't think we could pay off the deficit

:12:41.:12:44.

by 2020. Then you'll have all of this money to do what you want with.

:12:45.:12:50.

Final thought? There is also the attitude about business and the

:12:51.:12:53.

attitude to the super rich and well. I think Theresa May will concentrate

:12:54.:12:57.

on that more than David Cameron, alleviating concerns. The Autumn

:12:58.:13:00.

Statement from the Chancellor will be as big as any of the statements

:13:01.:13:05.

we hear this week. I am glad to hear it, it will be coming up live on a

:13:06.:13:07.

Daily Politics special. at the Conservative Party

:13:08.:13:10.

conference here in Birmingham. Fear not, I'll be back tomorrow

:13:11.:13:13.

at 11am for a two-hour special as Chancellor Philip Hammond

:13:14.:13:16.

takes to the stage. We are back on Tuesday and Wednesday

:13:17.:13:23.

bringing Theresa May's speech on Wednesday just before lunch. We will

:13:24.:13:27.

be back next Sunday as well. In the meantime, remember -

:13:28.:13:29.

if it's Sunday, it's

:13:30.:13:32.

Andrew Neil presents the latest political news, interviews and debate. Andrew is joined by transport secretary Chris Grayling MP, Conservative MP Iain Duncan Smith and Malin Bjork MEP, special rapporteur to the EU Parliament on refugee resettlement. On the political panel are The Sun's Tom Newton Dunn, Steve Richards and Rachel Sylvester from The Guardian (see regional variations for details).


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