18/11/2012 The Andrew Marr Show


18/11/2012

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Good morning and welcome. It strikes me, not for the first time,

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that we are an inconsistent country. Everyone says they despise

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politicians and they would like to do horrible things to them. Then

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one politician, the Tory MP Nadine Dorries, goes off to Australia to

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get herself covered in maggots and cockroaches, eats disgusting bits

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of floppy animals and generally makes an embarrassing spectacle of

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herself, and everyone pretends to be outraged. Come on! What more

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could any politician do to publicly humiliate themselves? Well, apart,

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I suppose, from standing as a police commissioner. And that's

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enough Nadine. Unless she features in the paper review. That's up to

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our trio of wise owls this morning - the former head of the Army, Sir

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Mike Jackson, the Times sketch writer, Anne Treneman, and the

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music promoter and entrepreneur, Harvey Goldsmith. MPs return to

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Westminster tomorrow to a great bank of storm clouds, building up

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at home and abroad. Here, the number claiming benefits is up.

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Inflation's over target and the growth forecasts have again been

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downgraded with grim warnings of a possible triple dip recession. The

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Business Secretary, Vince Cable, is here. His ally, Lord Oakeshott says

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Liberal Democrat ratings are flat on the floor. So, what will lift

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them - the mansion tax? Finding a way to make Starbucks, Google and

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Amazon pay their fair whack of tax? We'll find out. Abroad, there's

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another Euro summit this week, as a poll today shows most British

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people would now vote to leave the EU. The Tory rebel, David Davis, is

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here with some advice for David Cameron, as he struggles to freeze

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the EU budget and cope with rising euroscepticism. Labour also got a

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new tone on Europe, though I'll be asking the Shadow Foreign Secretary,

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Douglas Alexander, too for his take on the latest murderous exchanges

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between Israel and Hamas, as the whole region again seems to shake.

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That is plenty of storm clouds for one morning, I reckon. And we do

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have a quite extraordinary and much happier tale from the London jazz

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festival of a man in his 70s, who has arrived to play a string of

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major sold out concerts - having spent almost all the past 40 years

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in total obscurity. All will be explained when I talk to Sixto

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Rodriguez, and we hear a little of Lots to chew through, lots to

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listen to, but first the news with Naga Munchetty. Good morning. The

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World Health Organisation says hospitals in Gaza are now

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overwhelmed with casualties and running short of medical supplies,

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as Israel's bombardment of Gaza continues into a fifth day. There

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have been repeated air strikes and shelling from Israeli warships,

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producing multiple explosions across Gaza City. Health officials

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say 48 Palestinians and three Israelis have been killed since

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Wednesday. It may be dark and seemingly quiet in Gaza but then

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comes this. Another night after another day in a crisis which is

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taking its toll. What we adhering from our staff on the ground at the

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moment is that their own children are suffering extreme levels of

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stress and distress. It is only a tiny percentage of what children in

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the entire region of going through at the moment. Yesterday, the

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Israeli military released a video on the strike at the headquarters

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of the Hamas minister in Gaza. One of 200 attacks as Palestinian

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fighters sent at least 100 rockets in the opposite direction. One

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reached Tel-Aviv but was intercepted. Before the overnight

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shelling, the Egyptian President said intensive efforts were being

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made with both sides and there were signs of a possible ceasefire soon.

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He added there were no guarantees. Close to the border with Gaza,

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Israeli troops and armoured vehicles are a massing. They were

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not be drawn on the suggestion of a ground invasion. For now, the

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assault is by air and by sea. Our correspondent joins us now live

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from Gaza. What more can you tell us about what is happening now?

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has been an eventful morning. There were not many Palestinian rockets

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going out last night. Several militants have been firing rockets

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towards Israel this morning. It was a busy and noisy night overnight. A

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lot of firing by gunboats at targets in Gaza City and around the

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Palestinians strip. They say all these were legitimate targets.

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Whether or not that his justification for hitting the two

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media buildings is not yet clear. Two media buildings including

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several Western based organisations were hit. There has been a protest

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by the Foreign Press Association against the targeting of what are

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clearly media buildings. It has been an eventful night and a fairly

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busy morning. There is still talk of a ceasefire. Also talk from the

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Egyptian leadership and also talk of a ground offensive. What cherry

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Heering? We do not know. -- what are you hearing? Lots of damage has

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been done to the infrastructure of Hamas and other organisations.

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Everyone is asking whether the attempts to reach a ceasefire in

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Cairo frail, will the Israelis go on to phase two and launch a ground

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invasion? -- frail. Three Israelis have also been killed. The big fear

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is, if there were to be a land invasion - the ground operation -

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and there would be more civilian casualties. Thank you very much.

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Distraught families and angry demonstrators have prevented

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members of the Egyptian government from visiting the site where 50

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children were killed in an accident on a railway line yesterday. The

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children died when their nursery school bus was hit by a train at a

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level-crossing near Manfaloot, south of Cairo. The man in charge

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of the barriers has been arrested following reports he left them open

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and was asleep. The Transport Minister has also resigned. Here,

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MPs are to get another chance to decide whether prisoners should be

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allowed to vote. They will discuss the issue on Thursday - a day

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before the Government has to decide whether to comply with a ruling

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from the European Court of Human Rights, which says the current

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blanket ban is unlawful. The British car maker, Jaguar Land

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Rover, has been given the go-ahead to open its first manufacturing

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site in China. The project, which is based north of Shanghai, will be

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in partnership with Chinese car maker Chery Automobile. The two

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companies will assemble models tailored specifically for the

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Chinese market. That's all from me for now. I'll be back with the

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headlines just before 10am. Back to you. Thank you, Naga. I wonder what

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a specifically Chinese land Rover looks like. Now for the paper

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The Prime Minister has a new fixer. He did the job for Boris Johnson.

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The Observer has Sarah Teather, the diminutive but outspoken former

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Liberal Democrat minister, saying the benefit cap is immoral and

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divisive. In the Sunday Telegraph, it says public schools are being

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demonised and has an interview with Ed Miliband, who says Euro-sceptics

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are right sometimes. A bit of change of tone. An interesting

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story from Scotland on Sunday which says that Scottish universities

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will change the rules. If you come from a poor background, you do not

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necessarily have to get the grades you have been asked for to get a

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place at university. Like many papers, the Independent on Sunday

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is talking about Gaza. And with me to review the papers are Mike

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Jackson, plus Anne Treneman and Harvey Goldsmith. A big week for

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Europe in Britain. They raise the poll same 56% of Britons would vote

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to quit the EU. -- there is a pull. I think if there were a referendum,

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BPCC has also been in the news, if you had a vote, the turnout would

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be over 90%. If you give people something to vote on they're

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interested in and have a feeling about... One thing I find

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interesting about this is, something like 40% of Lib Dems -

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the most pro-European party - even they would vote to go out. This

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issue seems to be all over the place. There seems to be a real gap

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opening up between the political elite and the rest of the country.

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I think so. I also think one of the big issues we have got is that

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explanation is not given to most people. There is too much confusion

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about. If you do not really understand the truth about the

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European Community and, particularly, about the PCC,

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exactly what the rollers and what they are there to do and who you

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are voting for, you are going to expect a low turnout. Another huge

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story today. It is the appalling 4th day of the exchange of rocket

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fire and bombs and so on between Gaza and Israel. Yes. I was struck

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by the cartoon in the Independent, whereby we have an Israeli soldier,

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a Palestinian guerrilla, if I am using the right terminology. He

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started it, no he did not, you started it. A sad woman and a child

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saying, I do not think they will ever stop. Rather depressing but I

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think a rather accurate pictorial representation of what I hope is

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not yet another major brand of hostility. From the military

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perspective, what people have to remember, is how small is where

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this and how open to rocket attacks on all sides, I guess. Indeed. What

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has happened in recent years is that the ability of the

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Palestinians to reach deeper into Israel with it longer-range

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missiles, some appear to be supplied by Iran, has grown.

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Israeli vulnerability is clearly heightened their bite. I always

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remember an Israeli saying to me, we can only afford to lose once.

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Yes. But it looks like it will go on and arm. I fear. There were

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encouraging comments on the news that there was an Egyptian

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initiative to a tent some sort of ceasefire. There are continuing

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talks that they want all the time between the two sides. -- that go

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on. Then rocket start to fall. Something like 5000 rockets shot

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into Israel since January. If they were fired into England from France

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you would get fed up with it after a while. There are continuing talks

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that go on. Like everything, the vast majority of the population on

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both sides do not want this - they want peace. A group of people do

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not want to end it. Part of the problem will be Syria. First, let's

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go back to another British story. You have chosen the BBC. Lot of

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coverage over the position of the chairman. I think the Sunday Times

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has been having a field day about getting its own back on the BBC.

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Today there is a large spread about saying that Lord Patten has paid

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off the executive that have been let go, fired or was signed, with

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too much money. Reading the story, the underlying issue is there seems

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to be a blurred role about the difference between what is the role

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of the trust and what is the role of the executive board. The Times

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on the one hand is blaming the Trust for not taking control of it.

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One would be seen that is the role of the executive board. In terms of

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what the power of the trustees and who is on it, which is something

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that always bothers me, to some extent, with all of these large

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boards, somehow government always hires and the good, the great and

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the useless. They do not find the experts who know anything about the

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job in hand. We have that in politics are actually. Experts are

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too busy getting on with what they are expert at and earning money.

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is saying that Lord Patten is paying off the various executives

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with too much money. That does not seem to be right. It is basically

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saying that trust has overall responsibility. I am not sure how

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that works. Let's go on to the issue of, should prisoners be

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allowed to vote in elections? It Yes, basically we are heading for a

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cataclysmic head with the European Court of Human Rights on this.

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David Cameron said it makes him sick, the idea of a prisoner of

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voting. They have so there must be some sort of human right on this

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level. Apparently there is a deadline. To me, the words deadline

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and European Court of Human Rights, they keep moving those deadlines,

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anyway that will be another big issue. And you have a solution to

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this conundrum? I think they should only be allowed to vote in Police

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Commissioner elections. There by getting the vote sport in that and

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having expertise! They know what they are voting on. That is my

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solution to the whole problem. talk about what is in the papers,

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but what is not in the papers is also quite interesting sometimes.

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Remarkably little coverage of Syria. It shows how we can handle one

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crisis at a time, but not so real. Yes, in the car this morning I was

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looking for something on Syria and is not really there. There are some

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interesting commentary pieces as to how the so-called Arab Spring is

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playing into this new Middle East kaleidoscope and the pattern of

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what will emerge. Syria is in a much was place that Libya was when

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the decision was taken last year so that in itself says something. We

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now have an increasing number of refugees in increasingly wretched

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circumstances. A you saw perhaps your successors comments about the

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possibility of us becoming involved in policing the border, creating

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safe havens - what do you make of that? For it is the job of the

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chief of defence staff to implement whatever direction he is given by

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the duly elected government. One would be surprised if he hadn't

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been thinking along those lines. The decision rests properly with

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the government, and not just this government, it would have to be

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many others. I'm afraid I predict a worsening of the humanitarian

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situation, let alone the violence in Syria. We may get to the

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something must be done point. the West armed the rebels, what is

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the effect of that? It is clearly taking sides, but we have done that

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before. Largely them is a parallel with Libya, when we assisted the

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so-called rebels. There are choices, arming and training is one for

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example. Imposing a no-fly zone is another possibility, rather at all

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order. It would be much more difficult than Libya, but these

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would be military choices which will be put in front of the

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political decision-makers. probably some time over this winter,

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if you are right about the humanitarian situation. If I would

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love to be proved wrong. People think of it as a hot and Sunday

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place, in the winter it is no on the high ground, pretty miserable.

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Isn't it the case that the UN and the other nations that can help

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still don't know which of the rebel groups to help with. Although

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nothing is ever talked about in Libya, my understanding is that in

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Libya it is just as bad now as it was during the war, where the rebel

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factions themselves are fighting each other. That is the concern in

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Syria - there are so many different factions, collectively called the

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rebels. The question of what if we hadn't, or what would have happened

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had we not is impossible to answer. For it is the same with Iraq.

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is clear in the now several interventions we have been involved

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with since the end of the Cold War is that the military side is

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relatively quick. Then you have a vacuum, a political vacuum, and we

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all know our physics, forces fill the vacuum and it is messy. It will

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never be anything else, certainly for a while. Let's turn to another

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domestic story, simply called gulp in the Independent on Sunday.

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basically about the effect of Twitter, saying that you should

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:21:14.:21:23.

think before you tweet. It says about Sally Bercow, who has a habit

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of making the headlines every time she wakes up. But also Twitter

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could be liable to be sued as the publisher of some comments. It says

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in the body of the story - has it fundamentally changed the law of

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libel for users and mainstream media? It says the bureau of

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:21:56.:22:00.

investigative journalism, if they hadn't tweeted, Lord McAlpine would

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not have come out. This is going to completely change the atmosphere on

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Twitter, isn't it? It will have a massive potential effect. I like

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Twitter but I do Haverstock Gatt mechanism, and I think that is one

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of the problems with Twitter, that the passing bandwagon is very hard

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not to jump on to for some people. Basically it is about self-control,

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and knowing facts before you accuse people. That is an important

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political story. It might be said for most important political story

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at the moment is getting the big companies to pay tax. Starbucks,

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Google, Amazon, and more companies being named today by different

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newspapers. A long list of companies not paying their fair

:22:56.:23:06.
:23:06.:23:07.

share. The Sunday Mirror headline is these key board members of

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Starbucks taking away fortunes, and in the UK declaring �31 million

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losses. I have caught up my loyalty card. I went every day, and I

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watched that guy, Troy, before the committee and it was gobbledegook.

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They really made it - I will pay everything in Switzerland, I don't

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know. It is an elaborate way, but it isn't just Starbucks and it

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seems like Google and Amazon and Facebook and so on have become very

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adept in their structure that they don't want to pay tax anywhere, and

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equally they don't seem to have much of the social responsibility

:23:56.:24:01.

programme, and they may say we give so much of this and the other. It

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is an issue. Very briefly, Afghanistan, it is always in the

:24:06.:24:12.

papers. We had Paddy Ashdown saying a couple of days ago it is time to

:24:12.:24:17.

come out. It is not working, it is not worth another life. I am not

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entirely with him. I read his article very carefully and we know

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each other quite well. There is an article over the concerns of so-

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called green on blue, that is killings of coalition soldiers die

:24:37.:24:44.

either Afghan soldiers or mainly policeman, which is great concern

:24:44.:24:48.

also when you think about it it is quite a clever tactic by they

:24:48.:24:54.

position. It puts the wind up people. Yes, but that is not a

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reason to pursue, to clearly laid down a timetable on strategy. Going

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now is not going to help anybody. Thank you very much for that. To

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the weather forecast. It has been dismal in the south, but still

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quite mild. What is the prospect for the rest of the UK?

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The weather is in no mood to change once again. The sunshine is back

:25:21.:25:26.

but it is cold. There was a widespread frost to start the day,

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widespread frost to start the day, but there is a lot of sunshine

:25:28.:25:33.

around. It will not do much for the temperature today. We are going

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between weather systems, just one glance to the Atlantic shows a lot

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of cloud coming our way and that will turn things wetter tonight and

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into tomorrow. It is still wintry over the hills and Scotland and the

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cloud increases over western areas in the afternoon. The sum turning

:25:53.:25:56.

hazy across Wales and western England, still bright blue skies

:25:56.:26:02.

across the eastern England. The temperatures are no big change from

:26:02.:26:09.

yesterday, when we got as high as 15 degrees in the south-east. Still

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some showers in north-west Scotland, but it does turn very wet through

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tonight and into tomorrow morning. Tomorrow a very different day -

:26:20.:26:25.

more cloud around and stronger wind, setting us thought for a very wet

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week to come. We will see very windy weather as well, but it will

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be mild if you can cope with the wind and rain.

:26:34.:26:38.

David Cameron goes to Rainey Brussels this week, where he will

:26:38.:26:42.

be fighting against a move to increase Britain's annual

:26:42.:26:46.

contribution to the EU. He once the budget frozen or reduced but this

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will put him on a collision course with his fellow European leaders.

:26:51.:26:57.

Here the mood seems ever more Euro- sceptic. David Cameron's at one

:26:57.:27:03.

time rival David Davis will this week suggest the way forward for

:27:03.:27:08.

the party and he is with me now. Good morning. Let's start with the

:27:08.:27:13.

events of the coming week. David Cameron has been sent to negotiate

:27:13.:27:18.

with a pretty firm message from the House of Commons that he has to

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come back with a freeze preferably come back with a freeze preferably

:27:23.:27:28.

in real terms. There is very little chance of this, isn't there? Yes,

:27:28.:27:33.

it is pretty tough. His final recourse is a pretty weak veto, and

:27:33.:27:38.

if that doesn't work then you are negotiating leverage is cut to

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smithereens. He has got pretty much the whole institutional structure

:27:42.:27:50.

against him. They all want to have at least an inflation level budget.

:27:50.:27:54.

That is ridiculous - when you look at Greece and Portugal, for them to

:27:55.:28:04.

be protected really smacks of an international gravy train. Another

:28:04.:28:08.

disappointment, bad headlines here, a lot of muttering about having a

:28:08.:28:12.

referendum some time which almost nobody will believe because it is

:28:12.:28:18.

said so often. Nobody will believe it. Every single party has not

:28:18.:28:23.

delivered on a referendum. They may have their reasons, but the public

:28:23.:28:26.

will feel like two and will not believe any more promises on a

:28:26.:28:32.

referendum. What is your recommendation, doctor? One more

:28:32.:28:38.

piece of analysis - David and the rest of the Tories have quite

:28:38.:28:46.

understandably viewed this as very dangerous so they balked at it and

:28:46.:28:51.

the truth is they no longer can. With the eurozone crisis, the

:28:51.:28:57.

answer to that - more federalism - they can't walk away any more. That

:28:57.:29:02.

is the first point, that you can't avoid this problem. There is going

:29:02.:29:07.

to be a referendum, whoever is in power over the next five years,

:29:07.:29:12.

because the public will demand that. How can we turn this to our

:29:12.:29:15.

advantage? We have got to some have dramatically changed our

:29:15.:29:24.

relationship with Europe. So you need a discussion, an agreement,

:29:24.:29:28.

presumably by the government, on the list of powers that need to be

:29:28.:29:33.

repatriated. A shopping list. yes, you need that pretty much in

:29:33.:29:37.

the next 12 months so we know what we're doing. There was a

:29:37.:29:42.

negotiating window here now because they want things as well. You want

:29:42.:29:47.

David Cameron to initiate that, say this is our national menu, and then

:29:47.:29:53.

what? Then I want him to put that to the British people, to say here

:29:53.:30:01.

is a mandate referendum. Do you approve of it? I suspect we would

:30:01.:30:06.

get 70% support for the sorts of things most people want. We don't

:30:06.:30:12.

want Europe deciding our laws. you would like this dumb when? M

:30:12.:30:18.

very soon, in the next year, before the next European election.

:30:18.:30:22.

recent is twofold. Firstly it is important for the election, but

:30:23.:30:28.

secondly it gives the government a big negotiating lever. The only

:30:28.:30:33.

time in the last 20 years when the European Union has conceded to the

:30:33.:30:39.

nation's stance, giving back powers or conceding components of treaties,

:30:39.:30:45.

is when it has been a referendum. The French have done it with

:30:45.:30:49.

neutrality, forcing the change in the treaty effectively. The people

:30:49.:30:54.

say again and again, the troubled is it is not practical politics. We

:30:54.:31:00.

go looking for that radical shift, effectively back to the old Common

:31:00.:31:04.

Market sort of relationship. It is just not practical, we will be

:31:04.:31:14.
:31:14.:31:19.

I am not the only person to be saying something like this. Others

:31:19.:31:25.

argue the same sorts of thing. We know what the negotiation is like.

:31:25.:31:33.

It is tough. After the negotiation, you have this referendum. You put

:31:33.:31:38.

to people two perfectly decent options. You say this is what

:31:38.:31:43.

you're going to have for the next decade or so and this is the other

:31:43.:31:49.

option - to leave. That is not frightening. To scupper UKIP, but

:31:49.:31:54.

Prime Minister must commit to a specific date to do this in a

:31:54.:31:59.

Mashable time and not just talk about it. He needs to put it in law

:31:59.:32:05.

and says -- and say, when we put it in law we will have the outcome for

:32:05.:32:13.

the people. Is there a groundswell behind this idea? There by

:32:13.:32:18.

youngsters who have begun to pick up on a mandate referendum and the

:32:18.:32:24.

double referendum idea. It is beginning to get purchase. Now is

:32:24.:32:29.

the time. It is an historic opportunity and we should take it.

:32:29.:32:34.

Now, here is a story. It's the start of the 70s and a young singer

:32:34.:32:38.

from Detroit is being hailed as the new Bob Dylan. He records two LPs -

:32:38.:32:41.

great reviews but don't really sell - so the record label drops him. He

:32:41.:32:49.

goes back to life as a jobbing builder and demolition worker.

:32:49.:32:52.

However, completely unknown to him, on the other side of the world, in

:32:52.:32:55.

South Africa, his music has become fantastically popular. He is up

:32:55.:32:58.

there with the Beatles. His South African fans think he's dead. But,

:32:58.:33:02.

25 years on, thanks to the new magic of the internet, one of them

:33:02.:33:05.

tracks him down. Still quietly working on broken down houses in

:33:05.:33:11.

Detroit. Rodriguez, who has never played to more than a handful of

:33:11.:33:14.

people in his life, goes to Cape Town, is given a hero's welcome and

:33:14.:33:24.
:33:24.:33:36.

Finally, the story is made into a film - Searching for Sugar Man. The

:33:36.:33:40.

movie wins a string of awards and Rodriguez is not just feted in

:33:40.:33:47.

South Africa. Music buffs worldwide learn of this amazing tale. Welcome.

:33:48.:33:54.

I am happy to be here. You did these wonderful albums and they are

:33:54.:33:59.

fantastic. It does not work for the obscure reasons of the music

:33:59.:34:06.

industry and you go back to being a labourer. I go back to demolition,

:34:06.:34:10.

construction and renovation of homes and buildings. Do you ever

:34:10.:34:14.

have songs going through your head, thinking, if my life had gone

:34:14.:34:22.

another way, I might have been making albums? Music is always in

:34:22.:34:30.

my head. You worked away and had no idea that, in South Africa, you

:34:30.:34:40.
:34:40.:34:41.

were a rock god. I learned about it in 1996 when it was explained to me

:34:41.:34:47.

there was this fan-base of Afrikaans. In 1998, I toured and it

:34:47.:34:55.

was true. We were playing to 5000 cities. From nothing to 5000 cities

:34:55.:35:01.

it is quite a jump. You're playing small clubs originate. You're

:35:01.:35:08.

working as a labourer but you're interested in politics as well. --

:35:08.:35:15.

small clubs originally. Detroit has more than halved in population

:35:15.:35:21.

since the great days of the car industry. There are lots of

:35:21.:35:29.

challenges in an urban setting. I have seen the Forties to the now. I

:35:29.:35:35.

remember that City when they had 2.5 million people and out that are

:35:35.:35:42.

about 100,000. It is quite a difference. -- and now there are

:35:42.:35:49.

about 100,000. You get on a plane and suddenly you are playing in

:35:49.:35:54.

front of huge stadiums. Way you can send you would not be able to do

:35:54.:36:03.

it? My stuff is Major's and miners and easy lyrics. I would not have

:36:03.:36:11.

trouble with that. I do it at times. It must be strange seeing this vast

:36:11.:36:18.

crowd. It was epic. South Africa is a beautiful country - gorgeous

:36:18.:36:21.

people. Giving you have been selling huge numbers of records are

:36:21.:36:27.

known for this time, are you wealthy? Did you never quite get

:36:27.:36:34.

your hands on the money? I am a musician and we create revenue that

:36:34.:36:39.

night. We have awards and long-term things as well. I move on. The best

:36:39.:36:46.

way to go it is forward. To talking about going forward, you arrived in

:36:46.:36:51.

London to play a concert which instantly sold out. Another one was

:36:51.:36:55.

announced and instantly sold out. Four concert you are doing now and

:36:55.:37:04.

all sold out. -- concerts. London is a cultural centre. They come out

:37:04.:37:09.

and see what is happening. people who do not know your music,

:37:09.:37:17.

how would you describe it? It is singer-songwriter and has late

:37:17.:37:25.

60s/early 70s tone to it, doesn't it? Today's music is a lot of vocal

:37:25.:37:28.

distortion and instrument distortion. I own vocal against

:37:28.:37:36.

guitar and that is my style. I used musicians. We recorded hit in 1971

:37:36.:37:43.

in Lansdowne Road. -- a week recorded here. We will hear some of

:37:43.:37:48.

the music towards the end of the programme. Thank you for the

:37:48.:37:52.

opportunity for the interview. out of Israel overnight remains

:37:52.:37:57.

grim. More shelling and rocket attacks on Gaza have produced

:37:57.:37:59.

further civilian casualties, who is retaliating against whom recedes as

:37:59.:38:03.

the violence escalates. And over another border in Syria, Britain

:38:03.:38:06.

edges nearer to the French position of recognising the opposition there

:38:06.:38:16.
:38:16.:38:20.

as the legitimate government - a I am joined by Douglas Alexander.

:38:21.:38:26.

In a sense, this is Groundhog Day. More rockets and mortar attacks and

:38:26.:38:32.

more counter-attacks and so on. Is this particular around significant?

:38:32.:38:38.

Is it worth than others? The scale of human suffering is significant.

:38:38.:38:43.

The Middle East is more fragile and febrile than at any point in the

:38:43.:38:48.

last 50 years. We have been clear there needs to be a sensation to

:38:48.:38:52.

violence. We have urged the Secretary to the United Nations to

:38:52.:38:59.

travel to the region. We have seen this so many times in the past.

:38:59.:39:04.

Tony Blair was the special envoy for a long time and seemed to be

:39:04.:39:10.

banging his head on a series of walls. There is no military

:39:10.:39:13.

solution. There needs to be a willingness for the violence to end

:39:13.:39:19.

and the talking to begin. In that sense, Tony has done important work

:39:19.:39:23.

in recent years. Over the last 40 years, of the real breakthroughs

:39:23.:39:31.

have come when the parties and sows went to see a two state solution. -

:39:31.:39:37.

- at the parties themselves. The talk about a piece process. There

:39:37.:39:42.

has not been one of those in years of. That is why the latest round of

:39:42.:39:49.

violence does not offer a way forward. You add into this Syria

:39:49.:39:54.

and the hugely and stable position. We seem to be edging towards

:39:54.:39:59.

recognising the opposition as the formal government of Syria. Is

:39:59.:40:05.

there a danger that, inside the opposition, there are extreme

:40:05.:40:11.

elements and we maybe legitimising them and arming them as well?

:40:11.:40:16.

of the difficulties in Syria is that over 19 months we have not

:40:16.:40:21.

seen the emergence of legitimate leadership. We have not seen it in

:40:21.:40:26.

Syria. It is right the British government recognises the Syrian

:40:26.:40:30.

national coalition as the legitimate voice of the people. It

:40:30.:40:39.

is the right response to are the people -- their needs to be a

:40:39.:40:47.

credible plan. We should support unity. Including lots of Christians.

:40:47.:40:53.

That is why the need unity among the opposition but not arming the

:40:53.:40:58.

opposition. -- we need. We need to see the emergence of an inclusive

:40:58.:41:03.

and credible plan for transition. Recognition is an important step in

:41:03.:41:08.

the right direction. What happens if Israel does go for a land

:41:09.:41:16.

invasion of Gaza? I have caught for an end to the violence. A ground

:41:16.:41:21.

invasion would give Hamas of what it is wanting. We will see more

:41:21.:41:28.

loss of lies. I was the first British minister into Gaza. -- loss

:41:28.:41:35.

of lives. 100 Palestinians were being killed for every Israeli

:41:35.:41:39.

killed. It simply does not make sense were there to be an

:41:39.:41:44.

escalation of the violence were we need it to end and be talking to

:41:44.:41:51.

begin. -- for bed to be. A change in tone from Ed Miliband in the

:41:51.:41:55.

Sunday Telegraph. He says the Euro- sceptics were right about a few

:41:55.:41:59.

things. I wonder if this is the moment for people like yourself in

:41:59.:42:03.

the Labour Party to formally apologise for all those years in

:42:03.:42:09.

which she portrayed the Euro- sceptics as kind of dandruff slept

:42:09.:42:16.

unit -- lunatics. The truth is we are proud of Britain's role in

:42:16.:42:23.

Europe over recent decades. The Continent was divided by World War

:42:23.:42:29.

twice been the 20th century. Change is coming to Europe. We will remain

:42:29.:42:38.

a pro-European, pro-reform party. We see the future for Britain as

:42:38.:42:43.

being reforming in Europe and not exiting from Europe. A growing

:42:43.:42:48.

number of Conservatives believe the latter is the way forward.

:42:48.:42:53.

argument by David Davis was that you are never going to get any

:42:53.:42:55.

movement on the fundamentals unless you really have the wind up

:42:55.:43:00.

Brussels because you have had a referendum or whatever. That is a

:43:00.:43:07.

fair point. I like him but he was talking nonsense. Nobody believes

:43:07.:43:12.

and narrow agenda of repatriation, rather than a broad process of

:43:12.:43:16.

reform, is going to be the way forward. The gap between what

:43:17.:43:20.

Conservative backbenchers were judged acceptable and what could be

:43:20.:43:25.

negotiated is unbridgeable. That is why David Cameron is in the bizarre

:43:25.:43:31.

position of arguing for an in-in referendum. He cannot say what

:43:31.:43:37.

happens when you shred allowances to Brussels and they say, no thanks.

:43:38.:43:42.

If you do not do something dramatic and radical like that, you are

:43:42.:43:47.

drawn again and again, as you have been in the past, to the Franco-

:43:47.:43:51.

German agenda and it is quite clear that because of the crisis, deeper

:43:51.:43:55.

integration, more money for the central budget is now seen as

:43:55.:43:59.

absolutely essential. If the alternative is not that kind of

:43:59.:44:05.

referendum, what is it? We voted two weeks ago for reform of the

:44:05.:44:10.

European budget. It is a losing argument and not a winning one. The

:44:10.:44:15.

measure of our commitment to Europe is ever larger budgets for Europe.

:44:15.:44:20.

Bobby should be arguing for add the European summit is fundamental

:44:20.:44:26.

reform within the European budget. -- what we should be arguing for

:44:26.:44:33.

within the European summit. There is a big agenda for reform and the

:44:33.:44:42.

Prime Minister does not seem to be making that case. Now, another

:44:42.:44:44.

politician watching European politics like a hawk is the

:44:44.:44:47.

Business Secretary. But Vince Cable has issues even closer to home -

:44:47.:44:50.

that rather grim warning from the Bank of England governor about the

:44:50.:44:53.

long and winding road to recovery - and more austerity, which helps

:44:53.:44:56.

explain why the coalition isn't hugely popular and his own party.

:44:56.:45:01.

The Liberal Democrats came third in this week's Corby by-election. --

:45:01.:45:11.
:45:11.:45:12.

fourth. Mr Cable is talking tomorrow to the CBI about growth

:45:12.:45:22.
:45:22.:45:29.

Know, I think is right the Prime Minister takes a hard line on the

:45:29.:45:35.

Budget. That is unacceptable to those in the government having to

:45:35.:45:39.

make the cuts that the European Union is not been properly

:45:39.:45:44.

controlled. It is right. I am going to Brussels tomorrow as it happens

:45:44.:45:48.

to argue the case for further advances in the single market,

:45:48.:45:53.

which produces jobs for many British people. We have to keep

:45:53.:45:57.

pushing for reform, it needs to reform, but we can do it from

:45:57.:46:02.

inside the system. You will be talking about the importance of

:46:02.:46:06.

science and engineering, supporting industry, and I want to come on to

:46:06.:46:10.

that, but first we have the small matter of the Autumn Statement and

:46:10.:46:16.

more austerity going to be required. The Conservatives are very clear

:46:16.:46:20.

that they want to freeze more of the welfare budget, but you have

:46:20.:46:25.

been - your party - have been trying on the other side to make

:46:25.:46:31.

sure the rich will be paying more as a kind of quid pro quo. How have

:46:31.:46:36.

you got on? They that is a good summary of where the negotiations

:46:36.:46:40.

are. There needs to be a sense of fairness and the better-off people

:46:40.:46:50.
:46:50.:46:55.

in society have got to contribute The principle has ride at those

:46:55.:47:00.

people have got to pay more, and that includes companies. We have

:47:00.:47:05.

had this appalling story of abuse of company taxation, but on your

:47:05.:47:09.

general proposition there is no need to pull additional austerity

:47:09.:47:13.

on top of the programme we have already got. We have got to deficit

:47:13.:47:18.

reduction programme, we will stick to it. It has got to be supported,

:47:19.:47:24.

where their governor of the Bank of England comes in, and I will be

:47:24.:47:29.

talking about investing heavily in science and technology, having an

:47:29.:47:35.

Industrial Strategy, getting banks' lending. That is why we also have

:47:35.:47:41.

the new business bank. When it comes to taxation, there has been a

:47:41.:47:45.

serious row inside the coalition about what kind of tax it should be.

:47:45.:47:49.

George Osborne has ruled out mansion tucked publicly, which

:47:49.:47:55.

leaves the possibility of higher stamp duty or possibly higher

:47:55.:48:01.

council tax bands. Is that the area you would expect to see changed?

:48:01.:48:06.

know it is under discussion, and the devil is in the detail, but it

:48:06.:48:11.

is right that we do not tax the wealthy. It is the obvious place to

:48:11.:48:17.

go. Yes, added his further because property can't run-off to

:48:17.:48:24.

Liechtenstein. Speaking of running off to other tax jurisdictions,

:48:24.:48:30.

let's ask about this story this week - Starbucks, Google, Amazon -

:48:30.:48:34.

they have all been in the frame for not paying their fair share of tax.

:48:34.:48:40.

This is a fundamental issue of the rights of government versus

:48:40.:48:44.

international companies. Is there any way of forming some new

:48:44.:48:48.

international agreement whereby you can make these companies pay their

:48:48.:48:53.

fair share? It is certainly difficult because we need companies

:48:53.:48:57.

for coming from all over the world and we need investment. While they

:48:57.:49:02.

are here, if they make profits, they should pay tax. There is

:49:02.:49:07.

nothing more galling to medium sized companies when we find these

:49:07.:49:12.

people dodging it. Our own tax authorities have got to be tough on

:49:12.:49:16.

things like royalty payments, where a lot of the subterfuge takes place,

:49:16.:49:21.

but the big question is whether you can get wider global agreement. The

:49:21.:49:24.

Chancellor has been talking to the Germans about getting a common

:49:24.:49:30.

approach to tax havens. When you have those conversations, is are

:49:30.:49:35.

there any sense of urgency because it seems that a lot of people are

:49:35.:49:40.

making sacrifices, paying higher tax, a lot of small businesses,

:49:40.:49:45.

many of whom are on the edge of being put out of business by these

:49:45.:49:50.

large companies, and it seems grotesque. Yes, and it is

:49:50.:49:56.

unacceptable. It is also quite difficult to drill down to what the

:49:56.:50:00.

problems are. Starbucks claimed they are actually making losses in

:50:00.:50:06.

the UK. You would need some pretty intensive investigation by the

:50:06.:50:11.

Inland Revenue to find out exactly what is going on. What is going to

:50:11.:50:16.

happen? As I say, you have got to have a combination of action at an

:50:16.:50:21.

international level, which the Chancellor is pursuing with other

:50:21.:50:25.

countries, and we have got to be for our own capacity to crackdown

:50:25.:50:30.

on tax abuse here. You can understand the fury in Parliament

:50:30.:50:35.

about this? Absolutely. Many businesses are struggling and they

:50:35.:50:39.

are angry. Talking of both the economy more generally, it has been

:50:39.:50:44.

suggested there are a lot of British businesses which are so

:50:44.:50:47.

called zombie companies, in other words they are still there but they

:50:47.:50:51.

are not making any money and only holding on by the skin of their

:50:51.:50:57.

teeth because of very low interest rates. The minute the interest

:50:57.:51:03.

rates go up, they will start to collapse - is that a serious worry?

:51:03.:51:08.

Yes, some companies can't get access to credit. I think when we

:51:08.:51:13.

get a serious recovery going, once you get demand expanding in the

:51:13.:51:18.

economy, then companies will sell more, make more money, their

:51:18.:51:22.

businesses become viable, but I think the point you're making,

:51:22.:51:28.

which is when we get sustained recovery, and we are beginning to

:51:28.:51:34.

get some encouraging signs. many. The there are, notably on the

:51:34.:51:41.

employment front, and we can move towards normality. Let's address

:51:41.:51:45.

the economy in a straightforward way. We have what has been called

:51:45.:51:49.

the Long And winding Road, the possibility of a triple dip

:51:50.:51:56.

recession. Everything has changed, has it not? We will not get the old

:51:56.:52:01.

pattern, the old rhythm of a bit of austerity, everything gets better

:52:01.:52:06.

again, you have the election and you're thanked by the voters - that

:52:06.:52:12.

is not going to happen, is it? it isn't. This is not a temporary

:52:12.:52:19.

attack of flu. We have heard the economic equivalent of a heart

:52:19.:52:25.

attack, caused by the financial collapse of the system. It will be

:52:25.:52:29.

very difficult getting out of it but we have got to be solid and

:52:29.:52:32.

consistent in the way we deal with it, we have got to get the public

:52:32.:52:36.

finances under control, but we have also got to support expansion of

:52:36.:52:44.

the economy, short-term measures of maintaining demand, long-term

:52:44.:52:49.

things like apprenticeships. Your party, no party can honestly go to

:52:49.:52:54.

the electorate at the next election and save vote for us and everything

:52:54.:53:00.

will be fine, the pain is over. Absalom not under think everybody

:53:00.:53:03.

acknowledges that the need for restraint in public spending in

:53:03.:53:09.

terms of public sector pay, taxation, these will continue to be

:53:09.:53:13.

difficult for many years to come. I think the public will accept that

:53:13.:53:17.

if they can see we are pursuing a strategy to get out of this, and if

:53:17.:53:23.

they can see it is fair. The your former colleagues said in today's

:53:23.:53:29.

paper for instance that the cap on welfare payments is harsh and

:53:29.:53:34.

brutal and unfair. The what is immoral is demonising poor people.

:53:34.:53:40.

The reason why there is a cap on benefits is mainly because of the

:53:40.:53:45.

housing component. Housing benefit is escalating out of control,

:53:45.:53:50.

effectively a subsidy to landlords. What can you do? You could

:53:50.:53:54.

introduce rent control but that reduces supply creating more

:53:54.:53:59.

problems so we have got to cap the housing benefit while at the same

:53:59.:54:03.

time increasing the supply of affordable housing. Without that

:54:03.:54:08.

you will have very serious consequences, which Sarah has

:54:08.:54:16.

warned about. Your party has taken a very serious battering in Corby

:54:16.:54:20.

and other places. Lord Oakeshott said you have lost two fifths of

:54:20.:54:27.

the support you had at the general election. Is there any way of

:54:27.:54:31.

starting to turn that round, in terms of the party? People talk

:54:31.:54:38.

about the change of leader, from instance. People talk about you.

:54:38.:54:42.

Let's not go there. If you look at what happened on Thursday, we

:54:42.:54:49.

didn't do badly in the Corby by- election, we did much better in

:54:49.:54:53.

Manchester and we won a whole series of by-elections from Labour

:54:53.:54:59.

and from the Conservatives. The morale in the party is strong,

:54:59.:55:04.

resilient. We have been through difficult periods before. I am

:55:04.:55:07.

optimistic that it will stick with our agenda of economic reform,

:55:07.:55:12.

combined with making ourselves different from the Tories on

:55:12.:55:20.

taxation, this will come right. sticking with Nick? Indeed.

:55:20.:55:24.

heard the earlier conversation about the EU, is there any part of

:55:24.:55:28.

you that thinks, given the dramatic nature of the heart attack we have

:55:28.:55:31.

suffered economically and the changes we have to make to get our

:55:31.:55:38.

economy in a different direction, there might be a case of having a

:55:38.:55:43.

much looser direction of Europe. Perhaps this is the time for a

:55:43.:55:49.

rethink? We do need to focus a retention on markets outside the

:55:49.:55:53.

European Union and the priority on trade, which is part of my

:55:53.:55:58.

responsibility, is looking at the big emerging market. I don't think

:55:58.:56:04.

there is an argument for suggesting we're open in a fundamental way our

:56:04.:56:11.

relationship with the EU. Being part of the single market is

:56:11.:56:15.

critical. Now over to the news headlines.

:56:15.:56:20.

A World Health Organisation says hospitals in Gaza and now

:56:20.:56:23.

overwhelmed with casualties and running short of medical supplies

:56:23.:56:28.

after a fortnight of explosions. Israeli warships joined the

:56:28.:56:34.

bombardment overnight, this damage to a tower block housing foreign

:56:34.:56:41.

broadcasters. The shadow foreign secretary

:56:41.:56:44.

Douglas Alexander said the UN secretary-general should travel to

:56:44.:56:47.

the region. He said there was no military solution to the conflict

:56:47.:56:52.

between Israel and the Palestinians and called on both sides to end the

:56:52.:56:56.

violence. The business secretary Vince Cable has acknowledged public

:56:56.:56:59.

outrage over multinational companies that pay minimal tax in

:56:59.:57:02.

the UK. He said there would further

:57:02.:57:05.

investigation into their tax affairs to make sure they are

:57:05.:57:11.

paying the appropriate level of tax. The next news on BBC One is at

:57:11.:57:15.

midday. We will get back to Andrew in a moment, but first let's look

:57:15.:57:19.

at what is coming up after the programme.

:57:19.:57:24.

Is Israel's military campaign a justifiable response to attacks?

:57:24.:57:31.

Tax avoidance is killing British business - it may be legal, is it

:57:31.:57:38.

moral? That is all we have got time for

:57:38.:57:45.

this morning so thanks to my guest. Next week old be speaking to David

:57:45.:57:49.

Miliband among many others. Please join me if you can. We leave you

:57:49.:57:54.

this morning with Sixto Rodriguez, filmed exclusively for this show

:57:54.:58:04.
:58:04.:58:19.

during rehearsals yesterday. His # I wonder how many times you've

:58:19.:58:29.
:58:29.:58:30.

been had # And I wonder how many plans have gone bad # I wonder how

:58:30.:58:40.
:58:40.:58:42.

many times you had sex # I wonder do you know who'll be next # I

:58:42.:58:52.
:58:52.:58:54.

wonder l wonder wonder I do # I wonder about the love you can't

:58:54.:58:57.

find # And I wonder about the loneliness

:58:57.:59:00.

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