18/05/2014 The Andrew Marr Show


18/05/2014

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Good morning. Let's start with the good news. Britain is being run

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superbly well. Our taxes are fair, our trains, hospitals and schools

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are the best in the world, there are too many well-paid jobs to go

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around. Well, what other explanation can there be for the fact that MPs

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have just given themselves another three weeks holiday, because

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apparently, there is nothing for them to do? Joining me today for our

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review of the papers, the Parliamentary sketch writer for the

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times, and our World Affairs Editor, Johnson sun, just back from Nigeria,

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where he has been on the trail of Boko Haram. MPs have been out

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canvassing because there are local elections this week in London, and

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many other big cities and towns throughout England and Northern

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Ireland, as well as the European elections. I have been speaking to

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all the main party leaders ahead of these elections, and today it is

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Nick Clegg. He is used to do dire predictions as to how his party will

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get on, but why have the voters punished him since he led the league

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gems into government, and is the downhill trajectory terminal? These

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elections will be the last big test before the referendum in Scotland in

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the autumn. Joining me to tackle that topic is the Deputy First

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Minister Nicola Sturgeon. We might talk about whether the Scots can

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heal the wounds after the vote. And frank, fearless and often very

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funny, the writer Lynn Barber transformed the celebrity interview

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with her forthright portraits of actors, athletes, musicians and a

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huge range of public figures. The secret of her success was Jim at it

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is, she says, being very nosy and asking questions nobody else dares

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to. We will hear about some of her classic encounters later on. But

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first, the news. The Governor of the Bank of England has given his

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strongest warning yet about the risk posed by the housing market to the

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economy. Mark Carney Sarah is there is little the Bank of England can do

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about what he says are deep structural albums in the housing

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market, with demand outstripping supply. As the cost of a new home

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has increased, so, too, have fears about the property market. There has

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been talk of a housing bubble, with rising prices forcing people to

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borrow large amounts compared to their income. The Governor of the

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Bank of England was asked about it at his press conference this week.

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The second point is that you are absolutely right that the most

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notable development in terms of mortgage lending as a trend has been

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the increase in higher loan to income mortgages. Today, he tells

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Sky News that the housing market is the biggest risk to the financial

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stability of the country. He says new houses are needed to solve the

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basic problem, that demand outstrips supply. At the Bank of England is

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not going to start building property just instead, the Governor said,

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they will keep a close eye on banks to make sure they can back up what

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they are lending and make sure mortgages are only given to those

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who can afford them in the long-term. He wants to make sure any

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would-be housing bubble does not burst, leaving people with

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unaffordable debt, which he says could threaten the country's

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economic recovery. People in Serbia are bracing themselves for a fresh

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surge of flood water, as authorities struggle to deal with the worst

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flooding in the Balkans in a century. Three months of rain has

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fallen in a few days. 20 people have died and that number is expected to

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rise. Nobody alive in Serbia today has ever seen flooding as bad as

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this. EU's outer suburb in this area has almost entirely submerged. Other

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towns across the country have met the same fate. The only answer is to

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evacuate, without electricity or drinking water. People are usually

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basking in the sun at this time of year. Instead, they are piling up

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the sandbags, hoping they will be enough to hold back the deluge.

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TRANSLATION: These sandbags are taken to critical positions for

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flood defence from the river. In conditions like this, Serbia's Prime

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Minister says the outcome is beyond human control. TRANSLATION: We can

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only hope. We have done everything we could. Now, we can only pray to

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God. The situation is at least as bad in neighbouring Bosnia.

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Thousands of people are being evacuated. The authorities have

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called for international help, and Croatia has answered the call. China

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has evacuated more than 3000 citizens from Vietnam following a

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wave of anti-Chinese riots, according to reports from the

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state-run news agency. At least two Chinese nationals have been killed

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and 100 injured in recent unrest in Vietnam over a Chinese oil drilling

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operation in dispute is -- in disputed waters. West African

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leaders attending an emergency summit in Paris have promised to

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wage total war on the Islamist militant group which kidnapped more

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than 200 girls in Nigeria last month. The French president

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announced what he called a global plan of action to tackle Cohan ram.

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The group has been accused of abducting ten Chinese workers in

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Cameroon last Friday. Here, there is mounting pressure on the head of the

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Premier League to resign in the wake of sexist Tom Ince he made in

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private e-mails. A league committee is due to meet tomorrow to decide if

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Richard Scudamore should face disciplinary action.

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Now, as ever, to the front pages of the papers. This is a story in the

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Independent ab out water contamination, quite scary. And then

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we have got the Sunday Telegraph, the new Culture Secretary, who is

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Asian himself... And interestingly they have also picked up on the

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Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Carney, warning of the risk to the

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economy of house price increases. The Sunday Times, the rich double

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their wealth in five years, which gives a warm glow of satisfaction to

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everybody else, I am sure. And then, Scotland on Sunday, every single

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front page except this one has Arsenal cavorting around in

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delight, but this one Has St Johnstone cavorting around in

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delight. Their main story is that the new poll shows support for the

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yes campaign for independence slipping a little bit as the UK

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economy recovers. To talk about all that and much more, John Simpson and

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Ann Treneman. I think we have to start with politics, because there

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is a political frenzy in the papers today. Even more of a political

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frenzy than normal! Very hard to avoid pictures of David Cameron and

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Nigel Farage. Also, it is hard to remember which election we are

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reading about. Is it the Scottish referendum, the European

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election... Was Jim at anyway, I love this graph, which is designed

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to show that the Tories are taking over. Out of all of this, what

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conclusions can any sensible person draw?! Well, we can definitely see

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that Nigel Farage is not going to go away. Today, he always speaks in

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code, so he is quoted as being worried about Romanians. He says it

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is perfectly normal to be worried about Romanians moving in next to

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you. He was asked, why are they different from Germans? And he

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replied, you know the difference. I know, and he is married to a German.

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If a UKIP person moved in next to you, you might be worried about

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that. He speaks in a kind of... Coming back from Nigeria, this must

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seem rather trivial to you? It seems rather nice and calm and... Scotland

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breaking away, you know, it seems quite peaceable, really. We will be

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speaking to Nicola Sturgeon about these polls - what is your reading

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of the papers on the Scottish question? There is an article by my

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friend and former editor, when I used to work for the Spectator,

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Dominic Lawson, who says something which I must say, I rather wonder

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about. Back in 1992, when in fact I was reporting the general election

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then, the British election, for the Spectator, I found a weird sense in

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the John Major camp, which seemed so disastrous, hopeless, certain to

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fail, and I wrote about it for the Spectator, that they thought they

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were going to win. Everybody else was totally against this. And he

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won. The Spectator was the only magazine which said there was a

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possibility, so my stock temporarily was quite high. The fact is, nobody

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wanted to be associated with such a ramshackle outfit as John Major's

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Tories. Something of the same principle, only the principal, seems

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to be applying, according to Lawson, in Scotland. So, people do

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not want to say, I do not want to have anything to do with Scottish

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independence. When they are asked, they say, maybe. But when they get

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into the silence and solitude of the election box, the voting box... That

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is the theory. Ann Treneman, your next story? Well, you have got Nick

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Clegg on later, and he is very hard to avoid in the papers today. There

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is this story, I think it is in the Sunday Times, about a plot to remove

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him. We have seen this headline a few times over the years. Nick Clegg

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allies? Enemies, you would expect! No one is named. It is anonymous. It

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says groups of MPs usually loyal to Nick Clegg... But the thing that I

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find really interesting is that almost at the end of the story, it

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says, a further sign of Nick Clegg's precarious position, David

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Cameron is mounting a save Nick Clegg operation in the next few

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weeks! That is what I would worry about if I was him! Now, there are

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lots of big, big stories. India has had a real election and produced a

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really interesting result? Yes, and this is really the story of the

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week, perhaps more than that. Because India has, as we now know,

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elected Mr Modi, a man with a certain baggage of controversy

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behind him. Only two years ago, I think, the Americans and British

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would not allow him into the country because of his perceived hostility

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to Muslims and his record... Allegations that he was involved in

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some pretty horrific massacres of Muslims way back, and was allegedly

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associated with an almost fascist organisation as well? That is

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absolutely right, I do not think that is an allegation. The New

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Statesman had a very good article about this last week, which is

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chapter and verse. Yes, and he says the 21st century is going to belong

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to India. Well, I suppose, not impossible, but it is going to

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depend on whether Mr Modi can turn India around. 5-10 years ago, we

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thought India was going to be one of the world's superpowers. Five years

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ago, we and Mr Modi has got the job of trying to turn it around. And

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when he was ruling Gujarat, it should be said, he was incredibly

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effective in fighting corruption and boosting business and so forth.

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There must be a good possibility that he has ridden the wave, he

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knows what to say to large crowds of people, but he also knows how to run

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an economy. There must be a reasonable chance that he will do

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the job in India. We have got to hope so. Back to domestic politics,

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we are all waiting for something called the Chilcot Inquiry, can you

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remind us why we are so excited about this? It is a memory now. It

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was years ago. We have been waiting for years and it is costing

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millions, it is costing millions to wait. And what is it? Oh, it is any

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enquiries into the Iraq war, and why we went in. Tony Blair and all of

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that. We all went into this subterranean basement in the QE2

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centre, and since then, there has been radio silence for four years.

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Now, people are getting fed up and beginning to think, we are never

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ever going to get to the bottom of this. And there is this little

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piece, Peter Hitchens, today, where he says, basically, David Cameron

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really wanted to see this inquiry published, if he did, then it would

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happen, and I tend to agree with him. In a society like ours, it is

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quite difficult to shut up about it, isn't it? As far as I understand

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it, it is a procedure where everyone checks and everything to make sure

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nobody objects on anything. I just think they should publish it. Howard

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Wilson's made those comments that to set up the committee takes months

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and waste years. And millions. You have picked a story from the

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Independent. Three people who are less than effective in their job -

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Francois Hollande, the head of the European commission, and Goodluck

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Jonathan, the president of Nigeria. The most ill named president! And

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only together can they beat Boko Haram. I would just like to remind

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people there is a clip of one of your reports from Nigeria to remind

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people what they are up against. The bridge outside this town had

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been blown up last Wednesday. But two days earlier, the area was hit

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by an army of Boca Harlem men. They arrived at 1:30pm in the afternoon,

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we counted hundreds of burnt out cars. The coal -- Boko Haram didn't

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want anyone following them. I have seen lots of towns attacked,

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I'm afraid. I have never seen one so comprehensively destroyed as this

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town. You just get a sense of the violent savagery that Boko Haram

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house. If you stumbled upon the massacre of this scale, it must be

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going on again and again, and is it because it is too difficult and

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dangerous an area for the world's media to get to or what? Yes, the

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Nigerian media, let alone the outside world. The government isn't

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really interesting. -- interested. Goodluck Jonathan should have gone

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to the village where the girls were kidnapped from but shied away at the

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last minute. You don't see the Nigerian army, apart from anything

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else. The idea that somehow or another there are loads of SAS men

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and Americans and helicopters coming in full of stuff, it's absolute

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nonsense. The place is empty, the roads are empty, you don't see the

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military anywhere and Boko Haram is given a free hand. Why isn't the

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Nigerian army there? It has been starved of funding, it is not a very

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effective organisation now. While I was there, a group of men attacked

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their kernel because he wanted them to get a bit more involved. No way

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we are going in their! So the chances of these girls being rescued

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looks fairly grim. I agree. The only way to do it is some kind of

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negotiation but the trouble is no one knows whom to negotiate with.

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And the man that runs the whole thing is a complete crazy

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character. I quoted something the BBC actually caught out on BBC

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world, I think they thought it was too extreme. I quoted him as saying

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that... From one of his videos, he said, I enjoy killing the people

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that God tells me to kill, just as I enjoy killing chickens and rams. We

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have run out of time for the papers, but thank you for now very

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much indeed, and now to the weather which for many of us has been

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glorious over the last few days. You are not going to spoil it, are you

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Peter? I'm holding back the waters but they are encroaching across

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western areas at the moment. For the majority, summer continues

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today. It is England and Wales seeing the best of that at the

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moment. You will notice across Northern Ireland and western

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Scotland it is a very different story. Persistent outbreaks of

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rain, with us for the rest of the day, but central and eastern

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Scotland hang on to the fine weather. There will be some cloud in

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the sky from time to time but not spoiling things. Temperatures will

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be in the low 20s from the north of England to the south. The rain will

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turn Apache overnight across Scotland and Northern Ireland, but

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then easing in across the western fringes of England and Wales. That

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rain in the west lingering into Monday, it will become more

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widespread as the week goes on, but central and eastern areas again

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should get a fine day with good spells of sunshine and in the warmer

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spots up to 25 degrees. Looking more settled for everyone by the middle

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of the week. The European elections will be the

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last big test of opinion in Scotland before the independence referendum

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in September. Europe has loomed large over the campaign. Would an

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independent Scotland move seamlessly into the EU? I will be joining

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Glasgow now, the party's deputy leader, Nicola Sturgeon. Can I talk

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about this opinion poll in the Scotland on Sunday, it does show a

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fall in the yes campaign's decision. Have you noticed that in the last

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few days? No, on the contrary, it is just one opinion poll. Another one

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puts the yes vote at 47%. I think the really significant and

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interesting thing about the opinion polls is the trend we have seen over

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recent months. If you look back at latter months last year we saw the

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vote averaging out at the mid 30s, now for the yes vote it is around

:23:46.:23:50.

the mid 40s so there has been clear progress. Of course we have got work

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to do and we are going to work hard over the remaining four months to

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persuade people we will be better off as an independent country. Has

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the Scottish government had any public or private communications

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with the governments of Spain, Italy or France about re-entry to the EU

:24:11.:24:15.

after a yes vote? The Scottish government talks to other countries

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all the time, I'm not going to go into the detail of private talks,

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but what is clear is that other countries don't want to interfere. I

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will say no other government, including the Government of Spain,

:24:35.:24:38.

has even come close to saying that they would look to veto the

:24:39.:24:42.

membership of an independent Scotland. In another newspaper today

:24:43.:24:49.

we have David Martin himself saying that he thinks Scotland would be a

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member of the European Union. It is that kind of common sense that I

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think the majority of people in Scotland agree with. And because you

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haven't had any confirmation from these governments, because you --

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they don't want to interfere in the results of a referendum, you don't

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know for sure, do you? A very important point here is that of

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course it is in Scotland's interest to continue to be a member of the

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European Union but it wouldn't be in the interests of any other member

:25:28.:25:32.

state or as the UK union as a whole for Scotland to be outside the

:25:33.:25:38.

European Union for a single second. The comments that Jose Manuel

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Barroso made on your programme have been widely criticised by many other

:25:43.:25:48.

European experts. In fact there is a debate among those vying to be his

:25:49.:25:54.

successor, just a few days ago, and most of those candidates seemed to

:25:55.:25:57.

be distancing themselves from those comments as well. It has been said

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that Scotland would have two join the queue... Interestingly the legal

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expert that the UK government commissioned to do a legal opinion

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said the timescale was realistic. It is in the interests of everybody for

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that transition to be smooth and we see more and more people, including

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David Martin, Labour's candidate, saying something similar. That is

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the common-sense argument that people understand and appreciate.

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The Queen intervened in a sense, not suggesting people should vote yes or

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no, but that it was very important for the Scots to come together and

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heal the wounds. A lot of hot words have been said and accusations

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made. Are you convinced that healing process can happen? We have had a

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very robust debate, no one could deny that, but the meetings have

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attracted hundreds of people so it is a very positive debate about what

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is best for the future of Scotland. We all have a responsibility to make

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sure the tone and the tenor of the debate continues to be positive. Of

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course after the referendum we are one country and we will move forward

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together. That's why we've made clear we would take forward the

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negotiations on a team Scotland basis so those arguing for the no

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vote, we would look to take expert opinion from a wide variety of

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sources. One side or another is going to feel hurt and bruised after

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the result and there is going to have to be a lot of reaching out of

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hands in a way that hasn't happened yet, isn't there? Absolutely. We all

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feel very strongly in what we are campaigning for. I believe Scotland

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will be better off as an independent country and individually better

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off. I appreciate those arguing on the opposite side of the debate are

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sincere in their beliefs as well. You don't regard them as traitors?

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Absolutely not! But I think if we all conduct ourselves properly in

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this debate, then I don't think these wounds need to occur at all.

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One of the criticism I have of the no campaign is that it has been

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relentlessly negative seeking to talk Scotland down, and I would hope

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they will raise their game as well. If the worst, from your point of

:28:58.:29:02.

view, happens and you don't achieve the yes vote, would you look for

:29:03.:29:10.

extra devolutionary powers? I'm sceptical about whether the other

:29:11.:29:12.

parties will deliver that, that's one of the reasons I am campaigning

:29:13.:29:22.

so hard for the yes vote. We hear a lot of vague words from other

:29:23.:29:25.

parties on the no side about more powers but we don't hear anything

:29:26.:29:29.

concrete. I don't remember that clearly because I was fairly young

:29:30.:29:33.

but Scotland was promised more powers if it voted no in a previous

:29:34.:29:40.

referendum and all we got was 18 years of Tory government. Thanks

:29:41.:29:48.

very much indeed for joining us this morning.

:29:49.:29:51.

Known to fans and folk as well as the Demon Barber of Fleet Street,

:29:52.:29:55.

Lynn Barber has never been afraid to ask the questions other interviewers

:29:56.:30:01.

might have docked. She asked Harriet Harman if she was sick, she made an

:30:02.:30:04.

enemy of Marianne Faithfull, and nearly got lynched by one tennis

:30:05.:30:11.

idol fan for being too nosy about his private life. Her own private

:30:12.:30:19.

life is the focus of the hit film, And Education. I will be speaking to

:30:20.:30:24.

her in a moment but first a clip from that programme.

:30:25.:30:32.

If anyone else tells me what a lovely lad Rafa Nadal is, I shall

:30:33.:30:36.

scream. He is not allowed, he has just turned 25, which is admittedly

:30:37.:30:42.

young, but he is in his ninth year on the Grand Slams circuit, has won

:30:43.:30:47.

nine Grand Slam titles, and has won millions and millions of pounds, and

:30:48.:30:51.

I did not find him lovely at all. Now, it must be very difficult, when

:30:52.:30:56.

you go to do an interview, if you really like somebody, how do you

:30:57.:31:00.

deal with that? I quite often like people and give them a really nice

:31:01.:31:06.

write-up. Actually, I have just for the first time like a politician. I

:31:07.:31:10.

interviewed Margaret Hodge and we were really like best friends

:31:11.:31:14.

immediately, it was wonderful. She will be greatly you do a huge amount

:31:15.:31:20.

of preparation for each interview. One thing which comes up again and

:31:21.:31:25.

again is how boring actors are to interview? Yes, and I have recently

:31:26.:31:29.

been off a lot when I... They are difficult to interview. Their

:31:30.:31:35.

attitude is often, what do you want me to say, or how do you want me to

:31:36.:31:40.

be? Of course, the answer is, I just want you to be yourself. And they

:31:41.:31:46.

have got the film companies on their backs, saying, talk about the film!

:31:47.:31:52.

And nowadays, you have to go through these nightmare negotiations with

:31:53.:31:55.

their representatives about whether you can have 20 minutes or 40

:31:56.:31:59.

minutes. Because my pieces are all very long, I write 3500 words at

:32:00.:32:05.

least, I refused to do an interview, I refused to write that

:32:06.:32:09.

much on the back of a 20 minute meeting. And you always have to be

:32:10.:32:13.

face-to-face, and preferably in the house of the interviewee, so you can

:32:14.:32:23.

pick up... ? Frugally, but nowadays that is quite rare, that people let

:32:24.:32:28.

you in their houses, which I can understand, to be honest. Do you

:32:29.:32:32.

ever meet people who you dislike intensely was Jim people you think

:32:33.:32:41.

are phoney or fake? I did an interview recently with Michael

:32:42.:32:47.

O'Leary, the head of Ryanair. He was supposed to have completely changed

:32:48.:32:50.

his image, having been very horrible, he was now going to be Mr

:32:51.:32:54.

lovable. I thought I would be interested to see how that played

:32:55.:33:00.

out! And four about the first five minutes, he is outgoing and all the

:33:01.:33:08.

rest of it. But then the real hardness comes in, and you start

:33:09.:33:11.

getting this sense of a complete Scrooge, who basically wants to

:33:12.:33:16.

humiliate his passengers and make them feel cheap. So, that was quite

:33:17.:33:25.

good. I had almost despaired of disliking somebody as much as I

:33:26.:33:31.

dislike him! Your juices came back! In terms of disliking more

:33:32.:33:35.

characters, now dead, you did very well, because you were the only

:33:36.:33:39.

interview I think to push Jimmy Savile on all of these stories going

:33:40.:33:43.

around. You picked things up from people he knew, presumably, do you

:33:44.:33:47.

now think you wish you had gone even harder, because you got a a lot of

:33:48.:33:52.

abuse at the time? Yes, I got, how dare you ask him that? He had just

:33:53.:33:56.

been knighted and raised millions for charity. I said, people say that

:33:57.:34:01.

you like little girls, which people did, in journalistic circles, but I

:34:02.:34:07.

had never seen it in print. Obviously, I had tried to get

:34:08.:34:12.

somebody who had some knowledge of it but I never got that. But I am

:34:13.:34:16.

quite proud of myself having just got a question into the article, and

:34:17.:34:24.

that was really... You raised the subject. I opened the subject, which

:34:25.:34:30.

was all I could do. Was he affronted average no, I got the impression

:34:31.:34:33.

that he must have had to answer the question before. He had quite a pat

:34:34.:34:39.

answer. He was flustered for a minute. He went into that awful, I

:34:40.:34:44.

know, you know... With his wet cigar. But what was so maddening was

:34:45.:34:51.

that when he did start to emerge as a paedophile, recently, after he

:34:52.:34:55.

died, one of the papers reprinted my interview. Having had all of the

:34:56.:34:59.

flak at the time, I then got all the flak now, as too, why did you not

:35:00.:35:06.

say that he was a paedophile?! But I couldn't. I was interested in your

:35:07.:35:11.

book, you say you love interviewing artists, presumably because you love

:35:12.:35:15.

art and they are interesting people, are probably your worst experience

:35:16.:35:18.

would have been with the Chapman brothers? Well, he would kill me if

:35:19.:35:27.

he sees me again, Jake. I have had a friendly conversation with the other

:35:28.:35:31.

one. You know the Chapman brothers... Yes, they are a

:35:32.:35:37.

difficult pair. They are, and I was trying to find out about their

:35:38.:35:41.

growing up. Also, one of them has a slightly deformed hand, which I

:35:42.:35:44.

found interesting, because they were doing deformed figures. And they

:35:45.:35:52.

were so huffy - what a rude question, how dare you ask somebody

:35:53.:36:01.

that! I do not seriously think that Jake is going to kill me, though.

:36:02.:36:05.

There are two things in the book which suggest why you are such a

:36:06.:36:09.

good interviewer. One is that you spent years working for Penthouse,

:36:10.:36:13.

asking very personal questions, so you lost all sense of embarrassment.

:36:14.:36:17.

The other is your early upbringing, and the sense of being had by a

:36:18.:36:21.

conman. That laid the base for the film. Probably just as well the

:36:22.:36:27.

Russians are going film. Probably just as well the

:36:28.:36:32.

bomb on us any time now. My choice is to do something hard or boring or

:36:33.:36:37.

to go to Paris and Rome and listen to jazz, and read and eat good food

:36:38.:36:41.

in nice restaurants and have fun. It is not enough to educate us any

:36:42.:36:45.

more, Miss Walters, you have got to tell us why you are doing it. It

:36:46.:36:50.

does not have to be teaching, you know. There is the civil service.

:36:51.:36:57.

And by gum, US kept all of that! I did. -- you escaped. But I think it

:36:58.:37:05.

has been a happy career, lots of fun, lots of drink, lots of

:37:06.:37:09.

friends? I have been so happy, and just stumbling into it, really. A

:37:10.:37:14.

long time ago, I was asked whether I would like to do an interview with

:37:15.:37:20.

you, and I said, no, thank you, I am stupid but not that stupid. But you

:37:21.:37:23.

have been delightful today, thank you! So, how will the Lib Dems fare

:37:24.:37:34.

in the elections for Europe and the local elections on Thursday? The

:37:35.:37:37.

party is languishing in fourth place, its ratings in single

:37:38.:37:41.

figures. Nick Clegg is scoring lowest of the main party leaders. He

:37:42.:37:47.

and the Tories have been sniping over all topics. And once again

:37:48.:37:50.

there are questions about the survival of the coalition. Being in

:37:51.:37:53.

government seems to have brought nothing but trouble for the Lib Dems

:37:54.:37:57.

in terms of popularity. So where now? I am joined by Nick Clegg. Has

:37:58.:38:03.

it been worth it? Your party is facing near oblivion in the polls,

:38:04.:38:06.

what is the single thing that you have achieved in government which

:38:07.:38:09.

will allow you to look in the Mirror and say, it has been worth it?

:38:10.:38:13.

Massive tax breaks for millions of people. Biggest change in the

:38:14.:38:20.

personal income tax system in a generation, benefiting more than 24

:38:21.:38:24.

million people to the tune of ?800. I can add to that list, better

:38:25.:38:29.

apprenticeships, better pensions... At joking aside, of course it has

:38:30.:38:36.

been tough. Going into coalition with either the Conservatives or the

:38:37.:38:39.

Labour Party in a system which is not used to coalitions is always

:38:40.:38:43.

going to be controversial, and added to that, we had to fulfil the

:38:44.:38:47.

central mission of this government, which was to repair and reform the

:38:48.:38:52.

British economy just but when I look back at what we have done over the

:38:53.:38:56.

last four years, I think most Liberal Democrats feel the same way,

:38:57.:39:00.

I am immensely proud that our resilience and unity, despite

:39:01.:39:04.

endless negative predictions to the contrary, have actually delivered

:39:05.:39:08.

the stability necessary to deliver economic recovery, and a recovery

:39:09.:39:13.

which is also delivering fairness to millions of people. But at a

:39:14.:39:19.

devastating cost your record in the polls is terrible at the moment.

:39:20.:39:24.

Lets see what happens in the forthcoming elections. I cannot tell

:39:25.:39:29.

what will happen. Having been knocking on doors over the last few

:39:30.:39:33.

weeks, I've and getting the impression that in those areas where

:39:34.:39:37.

we can get our side of the story across, explaining what we have

:39:38.:39:42.

done, actually I think we will do better than people predict. But I

:39:43.:39:45.

accept in those areas where we are not strong on the ground, it is very

:39:46.:39:49.

challenging. That it was always going to be difficult for us,

:39:50.:39:52.

because we are breaking the mould of traditional two-party politics. We

:39:53.:39:56.

are taking difficult decisions to restore the validity to the British

:39:57.:40:01.

economy, but we are delivering Liberal Democrat policies which we

:40:02.:40:04.

could not possibly deliver from the opposition benches. What would be a

:40:05.:40:07.

good result in the European elections, in terms of numbers of

:40:08.:40:13.

MEPs? I want as many Liberal Democrat MEPs as possible. I think

:40:14.:40:17.

they are a guarantee in the European Parliament. I am not going to come

:40:18.:40:22.

up with numbers. I believe that we have shown in this European campaign

:40:23.:40:26.

the courage of our convictions. We are the only party to say, we have

:40:27.:40:31.

got to stand up to UKIP, to this nasty view of the world, wanting to

:40:32.:40:34.

turn the clock back, it will damage the future of Britain. I hope many

:40:35.:40:39.

people will recognise that the only party who have had the guts to say

:40:40.:40:44.

this is us. Let's look at the polls, it is absolutely clear, month

:40:45.:40:54.

after month, week after week, 7% or 8%, that is close to wipe out as a

:40:55.:40:57.

serious political force in this country - my question to you, what

:40:58.:41:05.

is going wrong for you? You have got all these great policies, you have

:41:06.:41:08.

been going around trying to argue with Nigel Farage, who won those

:41:09.:41:15.

debates, according to snap polls. We can talk about polls if you like,

:41:16.:41:22.

they go up and down. But these are consistent. Let's see what happens

:41:23.:41:26.

next week and in the general election. What we are finding up and

:41:27.:41:32.

down the country is, where we get our message across, where we are

:41:33.:41:36.

able to explain that if it was not for us, there would not be an

:41:37.:41:40.

economic recovery, let alone more money into schools through the pupil

:41:41.:41:43.

premium and all of the other things, none of that would have happened.

:41:44.:41:50.

Sure, there might be individual decisions which people do not like,

:41:51.:41:53.

which this government has had to take. But the big judgements,

:41:54.:41:59.

entering into coalition in the first lace to provide stability at a time

:42:00.:42:04.

of great instability, in order to deliver those big changes so that

:42:05.:42:07.

the economy is now looking much more optimistic, I think it would be

:42:08.:42:13.

highly self-defeating, precisely at the point when our big judgements

:42:14.:42:17.

are being vindicated, for us to lose our nerve. That is what we are a

:42:18.:42:25.

much more resilient and united party than our critics suggest. The

:42:26.:42:30.

biggest judgment was too going to coalition in the first place, and

:42:31.:42:33.

the problem is that when things are going badly, the Liberal Democrats

:42:34.:42:38.

get the blame, and when things are going well, the Conservatives gets

:42:39.:42:42.

the credit? That is why it is important that we shelter from the

:42:43.:42:45.

rooftops what we have done. There are not that many people around who

:42:46.:42:49.

want to promote our side of the story. I can see it in my

:42:50.:42:53.

constituency in Sheffield. Where we have been campaigning for months and

:42:54.:42:56.

years, people understand what we have done and by and large, they

:42:57.:43:05.

will continue to support us. By the way, I think next week, one thing

:43:06.:43:09.

which the Westminster -based media has not picked up on at all is the

:43:10.:43:16.

huge blow to traditional Labour support in their big Labour

:43:17.:43:19.

heartlands, for instance in the north, at the hands of UKIP. I think

:43:20.:43:25.

UKIP will do very well particularly at the cost of labour, in their

:43:26.:43:29.

traditional heartlands in the north. That is not something you picked up

:43:30.:43:32.

in poles, but we will see next week whether it comes true or not. We

:43:33.:43:36.

have introduced the subject of Europe, and the Prime Minister has

:43:37.:43:40.

made it clear that he will not carry on as Prime Minister if he cannot

:43:41.:43:45.

deliver an in-out referendum by 2017 - would you allow that to happen if

:43:46.:43:49.

you were in coalition with him again? I am not going to start

:43:50.:43:54.

speculating about who will demand what I'm coalition negotiations

:43:55.:43:58.

after any election. But I will have no problem with a referendum. What I

:43:59.:44:11.

will say is that wind power is transferred, then there should be a

:44:12.:44:17.

referendum. -- when power is transferred. There should have been

:44:18.:44:22.

a referendum at the time of the Lisbon Treaty. The problem with the

:44:23.:44:25.

Conservative position, they are playing hokey cookie with the

:44:26.:44:28.

British people. First, they said they would come up with some

:44:29.:44:32.

sweeping renegotiation of Britain's membership of the European Union.

:44:33.:44:37.

Then it transpires they have got seven, rather minor, insignificant

:44:38.:44:41.

little tweaks which they have got. And now, they are saying that if

:44:42.:44:45.

they do not get those minor changes, they will campaign to leave the

:44:46.:44:50.

European Union. So, you have got UKIP who want to jeopardise the

:44:51.:44:52.

future of the country by pulling out, the Conservatives playing

:44:53.:44:57.

games, this way and that, on Europe, the Labour Party, which is

:44:58.:45:01.

now a great big void on Europe, completely silent on the issue...

:45:02.:45:09.

They are not saying anything. I asked him about a referendum, Ed

:45:10.:45:12.

Miliband, and he said exactly what you have just said. Only the Liberal

:45:13.:45:17.

Democrats have said, you have got to be committed to be in the European

:45:18.:45:21.

Union if you want to win the big arguments on all the major topics.

:45:22.:45:26.

We are the only party, at least we have the courage of our

:45:27.:45:32.

convictions. You are the in no matter what party. We are in for

:45:33.:45:36.

reform, but you cannot win an argument unless you are in an

:45:37.:45:45.

argument. A lot of people say you cannot win the argument unless you

:45:46.:45:50.

threaten them with something. It is a form of petulance to say we are

:45:51.:45:54.

going to stamp our feed to get a shopping list of really minor

:45:55.:45:58.

changes by the way, and if we don't get them we will quit. If you say

:45:59.:46:04.

that, people will say, well suit yourself. You don't think David

:46:05.:46:12.

Cameron can get even minor changes? By the way most of those changes are

:46:13.:46:16.

things people will agree with, for example making sure proper

:46:17.:46:24.

guarantees for the member states outside the European Union zone, of

:46:25.:46:27.

course you need to do that but you don't need to secure the changes by

:46:28.:46:33.

stamping your foot the sideline and threatening to throw your toys out

:46:34.:46:38.

of the pram. So you think it is a phoney agenda? It is never going to

:46:39.:46:43.

satisfy large parts of the Conservative party because large

:46:44.:46:48.

parts of the Conservative party want to join Nigel Farage and leave so we

:46:49.:46:52.

have this phoney war which is now being papered over, the cracks are

:46:53.:47:01.

being papered over, by holding this arbitrary referendum in 2017. I have

:47:02.:47:08.

a problem with the internal divisions of the Conservative party

:47:09.:47:11.

being the determining factor of what should be a policy taken in the

:47:12.:47:16.

national interest. I care about what is right for Britain in the long

:47:17.:47:22.

run, not managing the internal party divisions. You have been involved in

:47:23.:47:26.

the European Union for a very long time, what is the chance of a major

:47:27.:47:32.

renegotiation and a treaty happening by 2017? I think it is much slimmer

:47:33.:47:39.

than David Cameron does. There are many other European governments, the

:47:40.:47:44.

French in particular, who are rather wary of an endless navel-gazing

:47:45.:47:53.

exercise when we should be creating more jobs, entering into new trade

:47:54.:47:58.

deals. Those are the kind of reforms we can get on with now. You have

:47:59.:48:05.

been admirably clear, but from what you have been saying it seems

:48:06.:48:09.

impossible that Nick Clegg and David Cameron could rule together after

:48:10.:48:15.

the next election. I don't see how you could possibly stick together.

:48:16.:48:21.

When the time comes, we will be clear about our priorities. Don't

:48:22.:48:26.

sneer. It is perfectly acceptable for me to say that if nobody wins

:48:27.:48:31.

the next general election, what will happen is compromise. The question

:48:32.:48:38.

is whether you would allow David Cameron to be Prime Minister, and

:48:39.:48:43.

presumably it is not up for grabs. It is simple, I state my view, he

:48:44.:48:49.

states his view, and the British people staked their view in the

:48:50.:48:55.

ballot box. It is wrong for people to presume they know the result of

:48:56.:49:04.

the next general election. If we were to continue in a coalition with

:49:05.:49:11.

the Conservatives, I would continue to be a guarantor for fairness. The

:49:12.:49:16.

Conservatives constantly look at the people -- look after the people at

:49:17.:49:23.

the top, and for me that is a more important role in the grander scheme

:49:24.:49:27.

of things. Since you asked me about my position on the referendum, I am

:49:28.:49:31.

repeating something my party has been saying for years. Again you say

:49:32.:49:37.

that the most important thing is to protect the people at the bottom of

:49:38.:49:41.

the heap which suggests to me you could trade the notion of when the

:49:42.:49:44.

referendum happens in favour of protecting people. I think it is

:49:45.:49:51.

clear from the way you are talking where your priorities are. I just

:49:52.:49:57.

have this old-fashioned view that an election should be determined by the

:49:58.:50:01.

voters, and we should not second-guess them but say what we

:50:02.:50:07.

believe. We are the only party to say what we believe in Europe, other

:50:08.:50:12.

parties can say what they wish, then people can make up their mind and we

:50:13.:50:17.

have to deal with the card dealt to us. We have been talking about the

:50:18.:50:27.

next coalition, let's talk about this one which appears to be coming

:50:28.:50:31.

apart completely. Dominic Cummings has been saying that you are self

:50:32.:50:35.

obsessed, sanctimonious, so dishonest he doesn't know what right

:50:36.:50:40.

and wrong is, a revolting character, we have thwarted Nick Clegg as much

:50:41.:50:45.

as record. That is one of your allies. What is going on in

:50:46.:50:50.

coalition? It is exactly what it says on the tin, two parties which

:50:51.:50:56.

are different. I'm not a Conservative, never would be, they

:50:57.:51:00.

would not be Liberal Democrats, but by and large we resolve our

:51:01.:51:05.

differences successfully. Far from that lead into paralysis, I think

:51:06.:51:10.

many people accept we have been an extremely ambitious reforming

:51:11.:51:15.

government across welfare, pensions, education, tax, and so on. From time

:51:16.:51:22.

to time you get intemperate language from people, I will leave that to

:51:23.:51:29.

them, but this coalition has shown... In the last government you

:51:30.:51:33.

had a Blair government and the Brown government, but at least a day in

:51:34.:51:40.

day out, David Cameron and myself make sure we seek to resolve our

:51:41.:51:45.

differences, sometimes successfully, sometimes not, but the history books

:51:46.:51:51.

will show that when it comes to reforming the economy, fixing the

:51:52.:51:56.

banks, more apprenticeships, a more sustainable pension system, we have

:51:57.:52:01.

delivered over and over again. What is undermining the authority is that

:52:02.:52:09.

extreme language, actually coming from both sides. I always tried to

:52:10.:52:17.

express my opinions about other people by not indulging in infantile

:52:18.:52:26.

personal language about them, we have talked about some of the

:52:27.:52:29.

differences between the Conservatives and the Liberal

:52:30.:52:32.

Democrats... You should call off the Liberal Democrat dogs perhaps. I

:52:33.:52:39.

think we have had remarkable successes and I have lost count of

:52:40.:52:44.

the predictions that it was going to end, fall apart, and every time we

:52:45.:52:50.

have confounded those sceptics. We have fixed the economy, delivered

:52:51.:52:55.

fairer taxes, and I like to think people will look back on this

:52:56.:53:00.

Government and say it is an unprecedented government doing

:53:01.:53:04.

unprecedented things. Let's turn again to Europe because that is the

:53:05.:53:10.

vote, not now. Nigel Farage has said you can tell a Romanian next to you

:53:11.:53:18.

compared with the German, is that racist language? I think the mass is

:53:19.:53:23.

starting to slip and what is being revealed is a really nasty view of

:53:24.:53:28.

the world. Anyone who singles out one community, one nationality, and

:53:29.:53:32.

says I don't want to live next door to them, I think that is the

:53:33.:53:38.

politics of division and should have no place in modern Britain. I would

:53:39.:53:42.

say to people, if you don't like that point of view, if like me you

:53:43.:53:48.

are really put off by this very divisive nasty approach to things,

:53:49.:53:53.

please go out and vote. The more people don't vote, the more likely

:53:54.:54:00.

it is UKIP will get in. And you are willing to debate on television

:54:01.:54:09.

about these things? I think that because I was willing to take Nigel

:54:10.:54:13.

Farage on, the political consensus was to ignore him but I decided to

:54:14.:54:17.

take him on and I like to think that is one of the reasons he is now

:54:18.:54:21.

being subject to more scrutiny, the mask is starting to slip, and many

:54:22.:54:27.

British people don't share his view. That's why I would ask them to go

:54:28.:54:32.

out and vote next week so we can deliver a convincing answer of

:54:33.:54:36.

decency to that nastiness. The governor of the Bank of England has

:54:37.:54:39.

said for the first time he is worried about the housing bubble, is

:54:40.:54:44.

he right? We certainly shouldn't repeat the terrible mistakes of the

:54:45.:54:50.

past. I think if he says we need to pare back on some of the Government

:54:51.:54:55.

schemes like the Help To Buy scheme, we should do so, and he is certainly

:54:56.:54:59.

right when he says the long-term problem is that we simply don't

:55:00.:55:06.

build enough homes in this country. One final question, I don't know if

:55:07.:55:10.

you heard Nicola Sturgeon expressing disbelief about the possibility of

:55:11.:55:14.

more devolution if there is a no vote in the Scottish referendum,

:55:15.:55:19.

what is your message to Scotland? I think further devolution is now

:55:20.:55:30.

inevitable. There is an emerging consensus, my party has always

:55:31.:55:36.

advocated home-rule, Labour have now come up with their ideas, the

:55:37.:55:39.

Conservatives are about to publish their ideas and I want the Liberal

:55:40.:55:45.

Democrats to act as a guarantor in any future government because I

:55:46.:55:50.

think that is the right future for Scotland, in the UK but with greater

:55:51.:55:58.

devolution within the UK. Thank you, now the news headlines. Nick Clegg

:55:59.:56:09.

has said that if it wasn't for his party being in the Coalition, the

:56:10.:56:13.

economic recovery would not have happened. Nick Clegg says he had no

:56:14.:56:19.

problem with a referendum on the UK membership of the EU, if there is a

:56:20.:56:24.

further transfer of power to Brussels but he accused David

:56:25.:56:27.

Cameron of adopting a petulant approach to Europe. The Governor of

:56:28.:56:31.

the Bank of England has given his strongest warning yet about the

:56:32.:56:37.

risks to the UK economy posed by the booming housing market.

:56:38.:56:39.

In an interview with Sky News he said there were deep structural

:56:40.:56:45.

problems with demand for homes outstripping supply. The next news

:56:46.:56:49.

is on BBC One at one o'clock, now let's look at what is coming up

:56:50.:56:54.

immediately after this programme. We will be in London at ten o'clock,

:56:55.:57:00.

asking one big question - did the First World War change Britain for

:57:01.:57:05.

the better? We have writers, historians, commentators and

:57:06.:57:10.

campaigners ready to debate. Nick Clegg is still with me and we

:57:11.:57:15.

have been joined again by Lynn Barber and Ann Treneman. You were

:57:16.:57:19.

mentioning the Chilcott inquiry in the paper review. I thought I would

:57:20.:57:25.

ask Nick, I've heard you would like to see it published. Yes, it is very

:57:26.:57:32.

frustrating. What is the problem? It is an independent inquiry so it is

:57:33.:57:38.

not up to me or David Cameron. I think it should be and could be

:57:39.:57:42.

published by the end of the year. I have asked the Cabinet Secretary to

:57:43.:57:48.

make sure the Whitehall departments cooperate so the outstanding

:57:49.:57:54.

issues... Are they not cooperating? There are just so many documents, so

:57:55.:58:00.

much toing and froing. I think it is really important it should be

:58:01.:58:04.

published and can be published by the end of the year. You are right,

:58:05.:58:09.

people want to know. This is one of the most momentous mistakes and

:58:10.:58:14.

British foreign policy ever. Lowering the tone, I wondered when

:58:15.:58:19.

you last had a cigarette. Don't ask me that! More recently than I should

:58:20.:58:26.

have done. An hour ago? No, I never smoked during the day, I have always

:58:27.:58:32.

been an end of the day kind of smoke but it is an ongoing journey. Do you

:58:33.:58:39.

smoke? Like a chimney, yes. I have been in this studio now for my

:58:40.:58:46.

tolerance level. You are starting to twitch? I hope my children aren't

:58:47.:58:53.

watching this! On that interesting note, thank you very much indeed. We

:58:54.:58:59.

have run out of time. Please join me again next Sunday when we will be

:59:00.:59:03.

digesting the results of the local elections and we will hear from the

:59:04.:59:09.

actor James McAvoy, but for now a very good morning, goodbye.

:59:10.:59:31.

A new era blooms at the RHS Chelsea Flower Show,

:59:32.:59:35.

with a fresh crop of exciting young designers.

:59:36.:59:39.

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