22/06/2014 The Andrew Marr Show


22/06/2014

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After a week which has been pretty tough for the Labour leader

:00:38.:00:40.

Ed Miliband, at last, an Opposition policy which seems genuinely popular

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Under Labour, every adult in the UK would get a free owl.

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The more you think about it, the more sense it makes.

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There has been a scandalous suggestion that the owls for all

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policy is a hoax, a practical joke, caused by an internet hacker.

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I, for one, don't believe it - do you?

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Reviewing the papers with me today, my own two wise owls,

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Isabel Hardman, assistant editor of the Spectator and the BBC Security

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If there's one thing President Obama and David Cameron have decided

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We may be days away from the fall of Baghdad and though nobody wants

:01:16.:01:24.

to be sucked in to a bloody civil war, this is the biggest potential

:01:25.:01:28.

threat facing the world at the moment and according to this

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I'll be talking to the former Defence Secretary Liam Fox about it,

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and I'm sure about David Cameron's problems in Europe too.

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Ed Miliband once said it's a good idea not to read the

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He's had an awful press over the past few days and weeks.

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I'll be asking Chuka Umunna, the Shadow Business Secretary,

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and one of Mr Miliband's earliest and most fervent supporters.

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We'll hear some forthright views on Europe, Russia,

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the Ukraine and how we should treat Polish migrants here, from Poland's

:02:03.:02:05.

Talking of forthright, the redoubtable Baroness Trumpington

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explains how she got away with straight-talking to Mrs Thatcher.

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I didn't give a dam. If I decided I had to be true to myself, and if it

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wasn't like, too bad. -- wasn't liked.

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And finally, the violinist Nicola Benedetti -

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going back to her Scottish musical roots - performs for us live.

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But first, the news, from Naga Munchetty.

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There's a warning that the conflicts in the Middle-East

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will have long-term effects on security in Britain.

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The head of Counter Terrorism at the Metropolitan Police says

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young British Muslims who have fought in Syria may return and

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It comes as the Sunni extremist group ISIS

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Leading figures in Baghdad have warned that the country's army is

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struggling to repel the attacks as Simon Clemison reports.

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He is one Briton to travel out to Syria, but one among many. This man

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ended up in a video where a group of men talk about going to fight in

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Iraq in an apparent attempt to encourage other Western Muslims to

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join a holy war. But he did not leave the UK alone. It's been

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revealed that he went with two other men, also from Cardiff. The pair

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returned home but were arrested on suspicion of receiving terrorist

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training. They were later released without charge. Police believe about

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500 British people have gone out to the two countries. The departing

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head of counterterrorism at the Metropolitan Police has told the BBC

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that they need to be alert to the possibility some might return to

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commit acts of violence here. I am afraid that I believe that we will

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be living with the consequences of Syria, from a terrorist point of

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view, let alone the world geopolitical consequences, the many,

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many years to come. -- for many years to come. None of the men are

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Nvidia referred to bringing the fight home, but Downing Street says

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there have been 65 arrests related to Syria in the last 18 months. In

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Iraq itself, there have been a series of mass rallies, called for

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by a Shi'ite cleric in a show of force against the insurgent group,

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ISIS. But Sunni militants have seized a border crossing which could

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help ISIS seize weapons and other equipment to Iraq. Another two towns

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are said to have fallen, and there are serious concerns about the

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ability of the army to resist the advance.

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And earlier, the BBC's World Affairs Editor, John Simpson,

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said he had been speaking to Western diplomats and senior members of the

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Iraqi government who told him the situation in the country is bleak.

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The Americans have been warning about ISIS for probably around 18

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months, and they saw the rise of the movement. But it's only in the last

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two weeks, 14 days, that they have been using surveillance techniques

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either from drones or satellites or planes or whatever to watch what is

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happening with ISIS. It's quite extraordinary that it is such a

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short space of time that they have been watching them. There are other

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things that are really quite disturbing as well. The Iraqis have

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been given hellfire missiles by the Americans, which they use planes to

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fire, but the Hellfire missiles also ran out two weeks ago and the

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Americans don't seem to be in any hurry to replace them. Not only

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that, but all sorts of other important equipment which the

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Americans have promised hasn't yet been delivered. Now that is partly

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because the training takes a long time, but it is quite disturbing

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that the Iraqis won't get sophisticated fighter jets September

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at the earliest. David Cameron will call

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for a vote among EU leaders on who should be the next leader

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of the European Commission. The move has been described

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as "unprecedented". It comes as nine left-wing leaders

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from across the EU have agreed to back the former Prime Minister

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of Luxembourg Jean-Claude Juncker. is too much of a Brussels insider to

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push through reform. Police in Essex say they cannot rule

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out a possible link On Tuesday, Nahid Almanea was

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found near a nature reserve with 16 stab wounds, while James Attfield

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died after he was stabbed more than Extra patrols have been scheduled

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in the area, while officers from seven different forces have

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been drafted in to help. I'll be back with

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the headlines just before 10:00am. Most newspaper editors have decided

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that the threat of jihadist is coming back to the the main story.

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MI6 are saying that 300 fighters from Syria are already back. The

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Mail on Sunday talks about a schoolboy jihadist, before and after

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pictures. Similar to the Sunday Telegraph. Two brilliant brothers

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who left a British suburb for jihad. The Sunday Times has done in a

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different direction, talking about business bosses attacking the Prime

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Minister for his failure to curb EU measures that they say will threaten

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competition in this country. And a Wimbledon picture, World Cup fading,

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Wimbledon coming. I have just dropped Scotland on Sunday on the

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floor, incompetently, and there is a story about yes campaign is getting

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rid of the Queen. There will be a new constitution after the yes vote

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and they think Scotland should become a republic. We will talk

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about that and the other stories later with Isabel Hardman and Frank

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Gardner. Frank, starting with you, and Iraq. You have chosen the

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Observer newspaper. There is a big spread here, which has rebranded

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Shia insurgents gaining the whip hand in Baghdad. These are the

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people who are going to save Baghdad if ISIS, this big and powerful

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insurgency, decides to take on the capital. The Iraqi army, frankly, is

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not up to the job. They melted away in practically all of the places

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where ISIS had been taking ground, but this is why everyone is worried

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about it being a sectarian, Sunni versus Shia Muslim thing. These

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people are much more motivated than the mainstream Iraqi army. A hard

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question to answer, but is the Shia militia able to take on ISIS? Lots

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of pictures of small kids holding guns bigger than they are. It all

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depends where ISIS decided take them on. If they attack the big Shia

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shrines in Samarra, Baghdad, these are holy sites. They are holy not

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just do Iraqi shears, but to Iranians, Lebanese, Saudis who are

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Shia Muslim. If they decide to take them on, the Shia militia will fight

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until the death, and some of these people are fanatical. The cleric,

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his people bought the British Army to a standstill in the south of

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Iraq, and some would even say that they won. So they are pretty

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hard-core. There is another Shia militia, the ones who kidnapped the

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five British people, the bodyguard and Peter Moore, killing four out of

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five of them. They are pretty fanatic. They are considered to be

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heretics by, so if you put the forces together... It's like the

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civil war in Europe at the time of the Reformation. Exactly. That is

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the worry in the middle east. That this will balloon beyond Iraq and

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Syria. You get Saudi Arabia coming in, and Iran on the Shia Muslim

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side, and then the countries are toe to toe. To some extent that has

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happened already in Syria where Saudi Arabia has ineffectually been

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supporting the Sunni rebel groups. The Iranians have very effectively

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used Hezbollah. The big question is, will this bounce back to the UK?

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What are we going to do about it? Isabel, you have chosen a story

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about the Cabinet agonising over it. This is the second page of the

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Sunday Times with the Cabinet split over military action. It's a split

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between the Hawks, George Osborne, Sajid Javid, Michael Gove, who think

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we should be involved. Then the dogs like Kenneth Clarke and Andrew

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Lansley -- the dogs. There is an unnamed hawkish minister who say

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that if American planes take off they might use British sovereign

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bases and that there is a British engineer or pilot or navigator as

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part of the team even if they are not taking offensive action. The

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point is we will be involved to a certain extent anyway, it is how

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robust we are. It is busy Mobley British bases in Cyprus. --

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presumably British bases. Also Fairfield in Gloucestershire, that's

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a potential staging base. The point here is, although the British

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government have said they won't get involved militarily in Iraq, we are

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fooling ourselves if we are going to be immune from a backlash. The West

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is seen as being all part of one thing by the jihadist groups. We are

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all dirty non-believers, and we are all going to get it, if we are seen

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as taking sides as competence. The front page of the Sunday Telegraph

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talking about the jihad, but how serious a threat is it now? Nothing

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has changed on the ground in terms of the threat in the last two

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weeks. What has changed is the psychological war, with the videos

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coming out, the revelations of these people going out there, but this was

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happening anyway. The numbers haven't changed. The numbers are

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tiny percentage terms. There are over 1 billion Muslims in the world

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and the vast majority, 99% and more, they want nothing more to do with

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ISIS. They see it as alien and as much of a threat to them as anyone

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else, but in absolute terms, because of the Iraq and Syria situation is

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so dynamic, so violent and continuing, the number of the

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jihadist groups, making their way out is growing. The Observer, no,

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the Sunday Telegraph there. I wanted to point this out in the Sunday

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Telegraph, and it shows the route that people take in the case of the

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Cardiff people from the video, going out to Istanbul, cheap flight to

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Istanbul, then making their way overland to the Syrian border. Most

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people go via Turkey. It's incredibly easy. This is very easy

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jihad. These very -- videos have a wide appeal. They put them on

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Twitter, other social media. A lot of really bored and in adequate

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people enticed by this type of thing, but that's the truth of

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Western society will stop its a bit more serious than that. The sort of

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people they get taken by this are often alienated from their families

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who are very often quite pious Muslim families, but don't share the

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younger generation's resentment of Western society, so they get drawn

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into this and go down this pipeline. What also worries ministers is how

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low down the agenda Iraq was in meetings until very recently, and

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the fact that we seem to have lost track of one in four who have

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travelled to Syria, so we have no idea if they are going to come back

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and when. That is an alarming thought. I want to move on to the

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other big political story, which is Ed Miliband's problems. Lots of

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coverage in the press today, the most disobliging all is the on

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Sunday. This is a fabulous piece called inside red Ed's head. This is

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what you get if you pose with the Sun newspaper and then apologise.

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I'm still not quite sure what he thought the benefit was. But

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whatever Benedict he thought was in it -- benefit he thought was in it

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was mishandled and he's infuriated the Sun newspaper. The infuriated

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the people of Liverpool and now the editor of the Sun. It basically

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lists all of the problems he has had recently. This is a sort of fun

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attack on him, but it voices the attacks from inside the Shadow

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Cabinet from inside his party on the leader as well, that he is weird and

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does not have a strategy and is not human. A more substantial attack on

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the Sunday Times. Not properly reflected by the headline. A more

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nuanced piece. What I think is really interesting is that this

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paints a picture of disorganisation and too many strategies,

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paints a picture of disorganisation recipes trying to make one broth.

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paints a picture of disorganisation next year so some think Ed

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paints a picture of disorganisation next year so some Miliband cannot

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get a majority so they are aiming for largest party next year.

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Although Ed Miliband himself is unpopular, the Labour Party is still

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on course to win a majority if you believe the polls so this is still a

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successful opposition leader if you believe the polls. Yes, but his

:15:58.:16:01.

personal ratings are incredibly bad for somebody who wants to win next

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year. There is always the fear voters will look at him and try to

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imagine him as Prime Minister in the next few months, when that is a real

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question, and they cannot imagine it and start to move away from the

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party in general. Frank, and start to move away from the

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Cup, there are lots of and start to move away from the

:16:23.:16:25.

England with tattered English flags. It has been few grim days. The

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saddest sight on the streets of London as the flags still

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fluttering. We all had so much excitement. I am not a massive

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football fan but I shared in the excitement of this, there are so

:16:44.:16:47.

many matches and you start making dates in the diary. The article says

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that the economy will suffer to the tune of ?300 million. That is a lot

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of beer not being drunk. And a lot of barbecue sausages that will not

:17:04.:17:07.

get cooked as a result of it. Who devised that figure? I think

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somebody very bored sitting in their bedroom! The other big story around

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at the moment is David Cameron's struggle with the rest of the EU

:17:18.:17:22.

against Juncker taking it over. Everybody seems to agree this is the

:17:23.:17:27.

right fight to have but everybody also agrees that he will lose it. He

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has decided to make this fight about continuing the fight rather than

:17:34.:17:37.

winning it. He has said that he will hang onto this to the bitter end,

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and it has been interesting as a political journalist charting that

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language. I was speaking to government sources recently who were

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very confident they were going to block Juncker, but now it is David

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Cameron standing up and making the right argument even if no one

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listens. It will be given some consolation prize, presumably. That

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is what he hopes, and that is the way that John Major said the EU

:18:06.:18:10.

works. On that cheerful note, thank you, and now we move on to the

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weather forecast. Yesterday was a fine day for much of the UK, let's

:18:16.:18:18.

get the prospects for fine day for much of the UK, let's

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get the prospects for today and the start of Wimbledon tomorrow. Another

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fine day to come foremost today, yes it might be slightly shorter but if

:18:27.:18:31.

anything slightly warmer as well. Most of us will continue to see

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spells of sunshine, there are always some exceptions. Some cloud across

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eastern England is melting away, but this cloud across Scotland is more

:18:43.:18:47.

stubborn, and providing outbreaks of rain. Cloudy at times across

:18:48.:18:51.

southern Scotland, Northern Ireland. The small chance of some showers

:18:52.:18:55.

here, but across England and Wales cloud will bubble up at the

:18:56.:19:00.

temperatures will jump up when the sun is out. It will be cooler around

:19:01.:19:10.

the coasts and cooler with the rain in the north-west, which persists

:19:11.:19:16.

overnight. It is a damp night for Scotland, elsewhere a dry night. A

:19:17.:19:22.

dry start of the working week. The increasing risk of some showers

:19:23.:19:25.

across eastern parts of England and Scotland but it will still be warm.

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As we go through the week ahead, we start off with sunny spells but

:19:32.:19:34.

there is an increasing risk of seeing some of those showers

:19:35.:19:39.

breaking out, so we may need the roof at Wimbledon, particularly by

:19:40.:19:41.

the end of the first week. Poland's urbane and anglophile

:19:42.:19:56.

foreign minister, Radek Sikorski has been visiting Britain.

:19:57.:19:58.

He's a contemporary of Boris Johnson and David Cameron at Oxford

:19:59.:20:00.

university, and a one-time euro-sceptic.

:20:01.:20:02.

But he's changed his mind, and is not a supporter of Mr Cameron's bid

:20:03.:20:05.

to stop the federalist Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming President

:20:06.:20:07.

of the European Commission. Mr Sikorski told me why.

:20:08.:20:08.

The main parties in the European Parliament announced in advance who

:20:09.:20:16.

their candidates would be, and Mr Juncker is the candidate of the

:20:17.:20:22.

party that won the election so here's having the first chance to

:20:23.:20:27.

form a winning team and a winning coalition. That seems to me to be

:20:28.:20:31.

the more democratic procedure and it is just unfortunate that Britain

:20:32.:20:38.

does not have a representation in Europe's ruling party. David Cameron

:20:39.:20:41.

would argue that he does not have what it takes to drive the reform in

:20:42.:20:46.

Europe that is urgently necessary. I would say that if the Tories were

:20:47.:20:52.

part of the European People's party, he could have made that argument at

:20:53.:21:00.

the Dublin summit when EPB chose their candidate and he may have

:21:01.:21:06.

prevailed, but he made his choice. So it was at least a mistake not to

:21:07.:21:12.

be in the European People's Party from your point of view? I wouldn't

:21:13.:21:17.

dream of commenting but the rules are that the largest party gets the

:21:18.:21:23.

top job. Does this mean that David Cameron's request for greater reform

:21:24.:21:28.

in the European Union is doomed, do you think? I think Britain can gain

:21:29.:21:34.

a lot of support and allies on the continent for sensible British

:21:35.:21:37.

proposals to allow nation states the decision-making power, would call it

:21:38.:21:49.

the subsidiary are two principal, and then do together the things that

:21:50.:21:54.

we gained by working together, on energy and I would argue on defence.

:21:55.:22:00.

On the question of reform, I guess the biggest question at the moment

:22:01.:22:08.

is about the free movement of people. The first great movement of

:22:09.:22:16.

people into this country were Polish, do you understand the fear

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that free movement of people across Europe has engendered in many people

:22:24.:22:30.

in Britain and other countries too of course? I understand that Polish

:22:31.:22:33.

is now the second language of the British Isles and up to 10% of

:22:34.:22:39.

children at British schools are Polish. Let me put it like this, I

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was an immigrant into this country a while ago, I went back. We are

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hoping that Polish people will also gain experience, learn English, gain

:22:52.:22:57.

some capital both cultural and financial, and return home. We are

:22:58.:23:02.

encouraging them to return. Coming back to your earlier point, we have

:23:03.:23:08.

no problem with Britain making its social security system less

:23:09.:23:12.

generous. For example on the continent, in particular in Poland,

:23:13.:23:17.

we wouldn't pay you benefits or housing benefit from day one. You

:23:18.:23:21.

would have two earned that right and it would take you some months. You

:23:22.:23:26.

are changing your social security system to be more continental and

:23:27.:23:33.

the European Union is not interfering in that. As long as you

:23:34.:23:37.

make it non-discriminatory, we will not criticise you. One of the

:23:38.:23:42.

statistics that was thrown at me before this interview was that in

:23:43.:23:46.

terms of remittances back of welfare payments, polls send more back to

:23:47.:23:53.

Poland than any other group put together. Do you understand why

:23:54.:23:57.

British taxpayers may think this is a strange way to spend their welfare

:23:58.:24:03.

bills? No, they pay in taxes something like 35% more than they

:24:04.:24:07.

receive in benefits but it is true that recent immigrants tend to keep

:24:08.:24:12.

strong links with their mother country and send remittances abroad

:24:13.:24:17.

but this is their earned taxed income, not benefits. Welfare

:24:18.:24:23.

tourism is a figment of some politicians' imagination. You

:24:24.:24:28.

mentioned defence, because the old days when you look to America should

:24:29.:24:34.

go now, Europe needs to defend herself? We have the largest economy

:24:35.:24:40.

on earth and we cannot count on the generosity of the United States to

:24:41.:24:46.

fix our security problems for us. We have to draw lessons from the

:24:47.:24:51.

debacle of the wars in the 1990s and we now have a whole arc of

:24:52.:24:57.

instability around us, Libya, Egypt, Syria, and the Ukraine. Do you see a

:24:58.:25:07.

European army with a big British component looking ahead? We have

:25:08.:25:12.

been told in no uncertain terms that Britain will never fight under the

:25:13.:25:16.

EU flag but there will be conflicts on which the United States takes a

:25:17.:25:21.

pass. Because of conflicts in the Middle East. Then sometimes we will

:25:22.:25:27.

need to act as Europeans and we should be capable of doing so. The

:25:28.:25:33.

concept of EU battle groups was a British concept and I think it

:25:34.:25:39.

should be deployed. Poland shares a border with Russia and Ukraine, too

:25:40.:25:43.

many people it seemed as if there is now Civil War opening in the

:25:44.:25:48.

Ukraine. How seriously do you regard what is going on there and what is

:25:49.:25:54.

the mood in Poland so close to it all? There is some version with

:25:55.:25:58.

elements of regional separatism but it is very much fat from outside.

:25:59.:26:07.

There is heavy weaponry, multiple rocket launchers, tanks,

:26:08.:26:12.

anti-aircraft missiles coming across the border that you

:26:13.:26:15.

anti-aircraft missiles coming across the shop. What do you think Vladimir

:26:16.:26:18.

Putin is up to? Mr Putin is the shop. What do you think Vladimir

:26:19.:26:27.

his union and he would like Ukraine in it. If he cannot get all of

:26:28.:26:34.

Ukraine in it, he is trying to get parts of Ukraine in it,

:26:35.:26:38.

Ukraine in it, he is trying to get is a sovereign state. If Russia

:26:39.:26:41.

Ukraine in it, he is trying to get pushing back to the old USSR

:26:42.:26:43.

boundaries, do you fear for other boundaries, do you fear for other

:26:44.:26:48.

parts of what was the Soviet bloc? The Baltic states for instance and

:26:49.:26:53.

even parts of Poland? They fear for it, and they are members of NATO and

:26:54.:26:58.

we should make sure the security guarantees that have been extended

:26:59.:27:02.

are credible because if they failed once, NATO itself would be... Its

:27:03.:27:11.

credibility would be endangered so I think it is high time to correct the

:27:12.:27:20.

last 15 years' negligence. We all thought Russia was a partner, but if

:27:21.:27:27.

history thought Russia was a partner, but if

:27:28.:27:31.

competitor, we have to draw the conclusions. It needs to be amended.

:27:32.:27:41.

Thank you for joining us. Radek Sikorski there.

:27:42.:27:46.

Mr Sikorski told me why. Ed Miliband has been on the front

:27:47.:27:49.

pages for all the wrong reasons lately - underwhelming election

:27:50.:27:51.

results, poor opinion polls, anonymous quotes from colleagues

:27:52.:27:54.

questioning whether he can win the general election,

:27:55.:27:55.

questioning whether he can win the leaves the stage if he doesn't.

:27:56.:27:58.

And on top of what's been called the Ed problem, those polls also suggest

:27:59.:28:01.

that the Tories are more trusted to run the economy than Labour.

:28:02.:28:04.

So what's to be done? Chuka Umunna is Shadow Business

:28:05.:28:06.

Secretary and one of Ed Miliband's staunchest supporters.

:28:07.:28:07.

Good morning. Firstly, I want my owl. I hope

:28:08.:28:20.

you're not going to do a U-turn on that. I don't know where people get

:28:21.:28:25.

these ideas from. If you are going to hack an account, do something

:28:26.:28:32.

better than an owl. Anyway, the IMF and everyone else has praised the

:28:33.:28:36.

British economy now, the fastest growing and unemployment is falling

:28:37.:28:41.

fast, as the Labour Party going to carry on saying everything is

:28:42.:28:45.

terrible or are you going to change your tune on the economy? We are not

:28:46.:28:50.

saying everything is terrible but we are saying more people get to share

:28:51.:28:55.

in the recovery as it settles in and we know that not just between

:28:56.:29:00.

regions, say London and other parts of the economy, but within regions

:29:01.:29:05.

too there are far too many people not sharing that. I look at my own

:29:06.:29:11.

constituency in Streatham, not typical seat, but we have seen the

:29:12.:29:16.

unemployment falling but on the other hand I have a situation where

:29:17.:29:25.

my constituency -- my constituents are earning less than in 2010 and

:29:26.:29:29.

one in three children are living in poverty. I think many of our

:29:30.:29:38.

businesses and people who work within them would say the reason we

:29:39.:29:46.

have weathered the storm is because of our businesses. If you ask many

:29:47.:29:55.

of our businesses how they weathered the storm, it is by reaching

:29:56.:29:59.

agreements for pay cuts and reduced hours to get through the very

:30:00.:30:03.

difficult choppy waters we have had over the last few years so I think

:30:04.:30:07.

our businesses and our employees working in them, they are the reason

:30:08.:30:12.

we have got through this. What we need now is much more longer-term

:30:13.:30:16.

sustainable growth. The problem we have had in the past, it has been

:30:17.:30:21.

too fast buck and not been properly balanced across the different

:30:22.:30:25.

regions in our economy. So you are going to announce some big changes

:30:26.:30:29.

to economic policy, how is that going to work? There are two things

:30:30.:30:36.

to this, as Lord Adonis has been looking into how we can give the

:30:37.:30:42.

regions and the cities to be masters of their destiny. This is building

:30:43.:30:46.

on the proposals Lord Heseltine, who talk sense in this area. He said

:30:47.:30:50.

central government should evolve about ?40 billion of spending to the

:30:51.:30:54.

regions to let them spend how they see fit. That would go to Birmingham

:30:55.:30:58.

City Council, Manchester City Council, and so forward? We would

:30:59.:31:05.

say we will devolve ?20 billion for the same purpose, but in addition to

:31:06.:31:09.

ensuring we empower the cities, we have do empower the people. The BBC

:31:10.:31:13.

has carried out some interesting research on this -- we have do. One

:31:14.:31:18.

in five people in our economy cannot do the full basics online of sending

:31:19.:31:25.

an e-mail, filling in a form, and browsing. We talk about community is

:31:26.:31:28.

disconnected from the global economy, and those were the ones

:31:29.:31:32.

voting for UKIP in the European elections, and in that mass of

:31:33.:31:36.

people who cannot do the things that all others take for granted, a very

:31:37.:31:39.

large number of them are from those communities. -- that all others take

:31:40.:31:44.

for granted. The next Labour government will be focused on

:31:45.:31:47.

connecting people in the global economy so they can realise dreams

:31:48.:31:54.

and aspirations. We have Maggie Philbin, she's helping us with this.

:31:55.:31:59.

Labour is not trusted on the economy. Business does not trust

:32:00.:32:02.

either. You are meeting business leaders this week. Is there anything

:32:03.:32:07.

you can give them to cheer them up? I disagree with what you just said

:32:08.:32:11.

about business leaders. Let's be clear, we will have to make some

:32:12.:32:14.

tough decisions. People should be under no illusions about the

:32:15.:32:20.

decisions we have to make and we are clear we will get public-sector

:32:21.:32:23.

finances back in balance. We want to have it on a downward trajectory by

:32:24.:32:25.

the end of the next Parliament. We said there would be no borrowing to

:32:26.:32:29.

fund expenditure, and we said we would take as the starting point the

:32:30.:32:34.

spending limits from George Osborne. One thing we are asking for, and

:32:35.:32:38.

there will be a vote this week in the house Commons on Wednesday, is

:32:39.:32:41.

for George Osborne to stop being a coward and allow the office of

:32:42.:32:46.

budget responsibility to audit the Labour plans at the general election

:32:47.:32:50.

-- the House of Commons. That is the best way of determining this. You

:32:51.:32:55.

are daring him to audit you? He is running scared, because the head of

:32:56.:33:01.

the budget responsibility office say they think it's a good idea. He is

:33:02.:33:07.

running scared. He is petrified that the Obi are will give Labour's plans

:33:08.:33:13.

the clean bill of health we expect. You have seen the polling in the

:33:14.:33:16.

last week or two, and Ed Miliband is in trouble with the voters in terms

:33:17.:33:21.

of his image, and there was a phrase used, to be a successful leader you

:33:22.:33:25.

need two things, a long-term strategy and an idea, which Ed

:33:26.:33:28.

Miliband perhaps does have, but you also need to be able to deal with

:33:29.:33:34.

the passing celebrity culture, the passing trades and ability to dance

:33:35.:33:38.

around and persuade people, and that he does not have at all. I don't

:33:39.:33:43.

agree with that. In some respects, that belittles politics. We are not

:33:44.:33:47.

playing celebrity Big Brother, we are talking about big issues that

:33:48.:33:51.

affect different communities. How can we pay our way in the world? How

:33:52.:33:56.

can we ensure that everybody achieves their dreams and

:33:57.:34:02.

aspirations? If Ed is guilty of focusing on the issues that people

:34:03.:34:06.

really care about taking a serious, deep look at what needs to happen in

:34:07.:34:10.

the economy to change it, then, fine, because that is what he

:34:11.:34:13.

seriously is what he seriously as bogus. Why do so many Labour

:34:14.:34:21.

supporters see him as a poor leader? If we spent all our time obsessing

:34:22.:34:27.

about polling surveys, we wouldn't be doing what we should be doing,

:34:28.:34:31.

which is winning back the support we are already winning back. Under

:34:32.:34:36.

Ed's leadership, the real polling that matters is voting. We have seen

:34:37.:34:40.

the Labour Party put on 2300 councillors in the marginal seats we

:34:41.:34:47.

need to gain a majority. In the last lot of local elections, everybody

:34:48.:34:50.

said if you got 500 or 600 councillors, you would be on course

:34:51.:34:54.

to win, and you 300. No they didn't. They said we needed 300, and we got

:34:55.:35:04.

about 150 lives, and we got 300, and now you say we should for 500. -- we

:35:05.:35:12.

should aim for 500. The bottom line is we went down to the second worst

:35:13.:35:16.

defeat in our history in 2010. If you asked people in 2010 we could

:35:17.:35:21.

have done that in one term of opposition, they would have laughed

:35:22.:35:24.

you out of the pub. A Labour government next year, is it in the

:35:25.:35:31.

bag? No, it's not. We are aiming for more than that. We are hearing a lot

:35:32.:35:37.

of talk about this and it's nonsense. We want to build a big

:35:38.:35:42.

electoral real coalition of people in the country to deliver a Labour

:35:43.:35:45.

government, because that is what will make a difference. And you

:35:46.:35:50.

think the strategy you are using now is absolutely fine? Steady as she

:35:51.:35:55.

goes? There's no steady as it goes. We have announced a big policy

:35:56.:35:59.

changes in respect of how job-seekers benefit is paid to 18 to

:36:00.:36:05.

21-year-olds, and the nonsense of a young person being penalised if they

:36:06.:36:08.

undertake more than 16 hours of education or training in a week. All

:36:09.:36:14.

of these policies have come out that the polls have not shifted. Ed

:36:15.:36:16.

Miliband surely has to raise his game. You will have to raise your

:36:17.:36:22.

game, including him. We are all doing very well, in my view, and we

:36:23.:36:27.

need to build on the successes to date to make sure we get that

:36:28.:36:31.

majority. That sounds like adopting the brace position. It is not

:36:32.:36:35.

adopting the brace position. I saw the chat with the papers earlier,

:36:36.:36:38.

and if you look at the fundamental qualities of Ed Miliband... He is a

:36:39.:36:44.

very serious man, but he's not connecting with the public. He is

:36:45.:36:47.

seen as very trustworthy. He is considered a man of great beliefs.

:36:48.:36:53.

In this day an age when people lack confidence in the BBC, the police,

:36:54.:36:57.

in different institutions, you can't dismiss those qualities -- day and

:36:58.:37:04.

age. What I am saying is, is for whatever reason, he's not connecting

:37:05.:37:07.

with voters and you say there is no problem? He is about the big issues.

:37:08.:37:11.

People can have the parlour chat game. This is about voters on

:37:12.:37:17.

doorsteps and opinion polls taken outside of the Westminster village.

:37:18.:37:23.

People in Streatham don't ask me about the latest polls. They talk to

:37:24.:37:26.

me about the education of their children. They talk to me about

:37:27.:37:31.

jobs. They talk to me about the continuing tragic youth violence in

:37:32.:37:35.

my constituency. We should not belittle politics, because this is

:37:36.:37:38.

about people 's lives. Absolutely right. Chuka Umunna, thank you.

:37:39.:37:44.

The House of Lords contains many independent and original characters,

:37:45.:37:46.

and none more so than Baroness Trumpington of Sandwich.

:37:47.:37:48.

A former minister in Mrs Thatcher's government, now in her nineties,

:37:49.:37:51.

Jean Barker - as was - has had a colourful career.

:37:52.:37:53.

She spent time in the women's Land Army, at Bletchley Park,

:37:54.:37:56.

in advertising, was a headmaster's wife, and a local councillor.

:37:57.:38:00.

She recently became an internet hit when she was caught

:38:01.:38:02.

on camera, flicking a rude gesture at her colleague in

:38:03.:38:05.

the Lords, Tom King, when he dared to refer to her senior status.

:38:06.:38:11.

Baroness Trumpington has been telling me some of her life stories,

:38:12.:38:14.

starting with how she encountered Lloyd George:

:38:15.:38:21.

My family had been rendered homeless because of the Army taking over our

:38:22.:38:26.

home, and they were desperate to know what to do with me. The whole

:38:27.:38:32.

family were great friends with my family. So, desperation, and Lloyd

:38:33.:38:42.

George took me in, and very decent of him. Very decent is not the most

:38:43.:38:48.

commonly used phrase about Lloyd George. Did he make a pass at you?

:38:49.:38:53.

There is a stupid story and I wish I had never told it, I think he just

:38:54.:38:56.

had nothing better to do and seized a tape measure and said, go and

:38:57.:39:02.

stand against the wall and I will measure you. And that's exactly what

:39:03.:39:07.

he did. I can assure you I was much too scared. If he had tried anything

:39:08.:39:13.

funny, I'd been out of there like a shot. The war years were wild years,

:39:14.:39:18.

in a sense. We think about them being terrible years, but the you

:39:19.:39:20.

they were all excitement at Bletchley. No, you are wrong, there

:39:21.:39:26.

was no excitement at Bletchley, it was solid work in one room. Not

:39:27.:39:31.

talking to anybody in any other room. Not going anywhere, apart from

:39:32.:39:39.

the people you work with. But there was misbehaviour at Bletchley,

:39:40.:39:42.

involving you being thrown into a laundry basket and rushed about at

:39:43.:39:49.

one point. You know, if you do 9-6, four to midnight, midnight to nine

:39:50.:39:54.

o'clock, we in, week out, for years, there are times in the middle of the

:39:55.:39:59.

night where you get fed up. After all, I did quite get happily into

:40:00.:40:07.

the laundry basket, so it is my fault. I was then pushed a great

:40:08.:40:10.

speed down the corridor and I did not end up in the gents cloakroom,

:40:11.:40:16.

as people said, I ended up in the Commander's office, where

:40:17.:40:19.

unfortunately he opened the door as I shot in. You came from a very

:40:20.:40:25.

wealthy family who lost manager in the depression, but you never went

:40:26.:40:28.

hungry until you ended up in America after the war -- who lost their

:40:29.:40:35.

money. I just loved it. I arrived with ?2 in my pocket. And I have a

:40:36.:40:42.

job, but I had forgotten, or didn't know, that I had to wait two weeks

:40:43.:40:49.

to get paid, and my brother had arranged all of his friends to be

:40:50.:40:54.

kind to me, including finding me somewhere to live. I had no money at

:40:55.:40:56.

all. I had to go through the somewhere to live. I had no money at

:40:57.:41:02.

all. I had to go dustbins, and I had a couple of very nice handbags out

:41:03.:41:06.

of those dustbins, and I lived the life of a Rover, but I had a lot of

:41:07.:41:12.

fun. You mentioned your brother. Of all of the mistakes you recount in

:41:13.:41:15.

your book, the least comprehensible is your brother turning down a girl

:41:16.:41:19.

called Jacqueline because she had dry hair. Tell us about her. I had

:41:20.:41:24.

seen these two girls, the two sisters doing a tour of Europe, and

:41:25.:41:28.

I had all of these people coming in for a drink in the house, and they

:41:29.:41:34.

came. After everybody left, I said to my brother, she was jolly pretty,

:41:35.:41:39.

did you make a date question mark over no, she had dry hair. Well,

:41:40.:41:44.

he's never gotten over the fact that that was Jackie Bouvier as she was.

:41:45.:41:51.

Then Kennedy, then an as is. Exactly. -- own as is. You had you

:41:52.:42:01.

say the happiest years of your life as a headmaster 's wife in

:42:02.:42:05.

Cambridge. He once jumped completely into the pool in your clothes on a

:42:06.:42:09.

great occasion -- you once jumped into the pool. I'm afraid I did. For

:42:10.:42:16.

17 years I presented the swimming cups and the Polo cups on speech day

:42:17.:42:21.

at the edge of the pool will stop I was always in my best close. I had

:42:22.:42:28.

just had my hair done and I jumped -- best set of clothes. Half of the

:42:29.:42:32.

school jumped in to save me. My husband would not speak to me that

:42:33.:42:39.

three weeks. Why did you do it? Just for the hell of it. I was leaving,

:42:40.:42:45.

just the hell it. You became a Conservative councillor in Cambridge

:42:46.:42:48.

almost by accident but it launched or political career and you became a

:42:49.:42:52.

minister under Margaret Thatcher. Lots of people found Margaret

:42:53.:42:55.

Thatcher as intimidating, terrifying, difficult but you

:42:56.:42:57.

clearly got on well with her. What was the secret? That I did not care.

:42:58.:43:03.

I had to be true to myself. It wasn't like -- if it wasn't like,

:43:04.:43:09.

that was too bad, but it was better to stick to your guns. I think it

:43:10.:43:18.

was usable to her because it gave her something she could remember

:43:19.:43:22.

when other people spoke as I did. There are a great many questions to

:43:23.:43:29.

be answered... At the age of 91 you are an active Conservative peer in

:43:30.:43:31.

the House of Lords. What worries you most about what is going on in

:43:32.:43:35.

politics at the moment? There are too many peers, no doubt about it.

:43:36.:43:39.

Too many lords. Something has to be done. I do hope it doesn't mean that

:43:40.:43:45.

I have to go. That is the danger of saying that. It is a dangerous

:43:46.:43:50.

thing, I know. There are a hell of a lot of liberals who don't really add

:43:51.:43:56.

up to much. Purge the Liberals? They don't actually add up to much.

:43:57.:44:00.

Baroness Trumpington, speaking to me at her home in London.

:44:01.:44:02.

And her autobiography, Coming Up Trumps is out now.

:44:03.:44:05.

And there's huge reluctance on the part of America

:44:06.:44:09.

and our own government, to get involved in what's clearly

:44:10.:44:11.

President Obama has made clear that Iraq's Shia prime minister,

:44:12.:44:17.

Nouri Al-Maliki, must reach out to the Sunnis and other minorities.

:44:18.:44:20.

Is the country on the brink of collapse?

:44:21.:44:24.

In a moment, we?ll be speaking to the former Defence Secretary, Liam

:44:25.:44:27.

Fox, about what he thinks we can, should, or might have to do in Iraq.

:44:28.:44:32.

But first, Zuhair Al-Naher is a close associate of the

:44:33.:44:35.

Do you have the resources in Baghdad to fight off ISIS? The Iraqi army

:44:36.:44:51.

has halted the advance of the ISIS fighters, however, the Iraqi armed

:44:52.:44:55.

forces need support. What do they need? They need intelligence

:44:56.:45:03.

support. This is a good step that the US has sent 300 experts. They

:45:04.:45:07.

will advise the Iraqi army and improve their strategies, but we

:45:08.:45:12.

also hope that if there is needed to be surgical strikes based on

:45:13.:45:18.

intelligence information, on centres of terrorists, we will get that

:45:19.:45:21.

support from the US in order to allow the Army to move. John Simpson

:45:22.:45:27.

was saying you no longer have the missiles are needed. Is that true?

:45:28.:45:34.

-- that you needed. The army and air force need more support in that

:45:35.:45:39.

aspect. Absolutely. Almost everybody from Tony Blair to President Obama

:45:40.:45:43.

said that the Prime Minister had failed, and made Iraq a more

:45:44.:45:47.

sectarian place. She over sunny, and he has to reach out very fast and

:45:48.:45:59.

then go. That claim is exaggerated. The Prime Minister has reached out

:46:00.:46:05.

but he has faced challenges, the challenges being suspicion between

:46:06.:46:11.

the parties. Some Sunni elements have been linked to the extremist or

:46:12.:46:16.

former Saddam Hussein months, so there is suspicion but there is no

:46:17.:46:21.

question about it. Iraq is going through a process now. The results

:46:22.:46:26.

of the elections have been endorsed and now the political parties and

:46:27.:46:29.

the newly elected MPs will get together. Is there going to be a new

:46:30.:46:36.

coalition government? Absolutely, and Prime Minister Nori monarchy,

:46:37.:46:46.

his platform was to join a government that was inclusive of all

:46:47.:46:55.

of the sectors. Thank you very much for joining me. And so to Doctor

:46:56.:47:03.

Fox. The Sunday Times has Niall Ferguson the historian asking the

:47:04.:47:09.

question, as the West Brom wobbly. Is the answer yes? I don't think so,

:47:10.:47:15.

but given the political fatigue that set in after the long involvement in

:47:16.:47:21.

Iraq after 2003, I think there is a reticence by politicians to get

:47:22.:47:25.

involved again. I think that is a mistake because if you look at what

:47:26.:47:32.

ISIS represent in terms of threats, the threat of jihadists coming back

:47:33.:47:37.

to threaten us at home and more potentially lethal, a clash between

:47:38.:47:44.

Saudi and Iran by proxy or directly, we have to recognise that inactivity

:47:45.:47:50.

is not an option. If Britain decided to come in alongside America, what

:47:51.:47:55.

could we offer in practical terms? If the US is asked to comment, there

:47:56.:48:06.

will be reconnaissance, possibly air strikes. There is nothing we have in

:48:07.:48:11.

specific assets that the Americans don't have but the Americans might

:48:12.:48:21.

want to use British basis -- bases and share intelligence. If we allow

:48:22.:48:24.

the situation to get out of control, the risks are horrendous.

:48:25.:48:28.

It is already close to being out of control, if Britain was asked to use

:48:29.:48:34.

British planes in surgical strikes against ISIS, could we do that? We

:48:35.:48:39.

could, I don't think we would because the Americans have a greater

:48:40.:48:50.

capability. Remember the west is seen as a single entity. There are

:48:51.:48:54.

those who say if we don't get involved, if we hunker down there

:48:55.:49:00.

will be no backlash, that is utterly wrong because the jihadists don't

:49:01.:49:05.

hate us because of what we do, they hate us because of who we are. It is

:49:06.:49:12.

our values and our history that they detest. A lot of the jihadists are

:49:13.:49:16.

coming back to Britain, what can we do about that? Can we take away

:49:17.:49:23.

their passports? We can technically do that, and we can remove

:49:24.:49:32.

citizenship. We have the security services to ensure that they are

:49:33.:49:36.

watched and that they don't pose a greater threat. Not enough perhaps?

:49:37.:49:41.

That is a question we are going to have to ask, whether the security

:49:42.:49:47.

services have adequate authority, but also do the powers that they

:49:48.:49:54.

have reflect increasing need? You have people at the moment in light

:49:55.:49:58.

of Edward Snowden saying the state has too many powers. What kind of

:49:59.:50:04.

powers should we be giving, in your view, to the security services to

:50:05.:50:10.

deal with this? The whole area of intercept for example needs to be

:50:11.:50:14.

looked at. It is a genuine debate between the libertarians who saved

:50:15.:50:18.

the state must not get too powerful and pretty much the rest of us who

:50:19.:50:24.

say the state must protect us. So more manpower and more money as

:50:25.:50:32.

well. If required. If I am a jihadists and I have had a great

:50:33.:50:35.

time beheading people in Iraq and Syria and I arrived with my passport

:50:36.:50:39.

at Heathrow airport, what can be done to stop me coming home and

:50:40.:50:44.

spreading my poison here? There are limits to what we can do. In a free

:50:45.:50:50.

society, we have the ability to move. I can move back to Cardiff

:50:51.:50:56.

suburbs or wherever? Yes, and we have to decide what state powers we

:50:57.:51:01.

can use to make sure you are watched so that you don't pose a greater

:51:02.:51:07.

threat to the civilian population. I suppose practically we couldn't

:51:08.:51:10.

deport people into ISIS territory because we couldn't get there. It is

:51:11.:51:15.

a real worry and it is a problem that will be with us for a very long

:51:16.:51:21.

time. We have to win the ideological battle as well and that takes you

:51:22.:51:25.

into areas of diversity in our society and how we deal with that.

:51:26.:51:31.

Do you think we should bring back control orders? Only if we think it

:51:32.:51:36.

can provide a positive benefit without some sort of counteracting

:51:37.:51:42.

disincentive to do so. Let's turn out of the other political story

:51:43.:51:48.

which is David Cameron's fight to stop Mr Juncker becoming leader of

:51:49.:51:52.

the EU in effect. It is clearly a fight many people in the

:51:53.:51:56.

Conservative party would agree he has to take on and yet he will lose

:51:57.:52:01.

it. How will that affect his standing in the party? It is a real

:52:02.:52:05.

pleasure to watch the Prime Minister doing what he thinks is right. If

:52:06.:52:13.

the Juncker agenda is wrong for the people of Europe, then the British

:52:14.:52:17.

Prime Minister is right to stand up against it. He may not win the

:52:18.:52:22.

battle but it is so much nicer to see a Prime Minister willing to take

:52:23.:52:27.

a battle and get a bloody nose than not doing so. But a European Union

:52:28.:52:35.

led by Juncker will presumably not give us the changes that we want in

:52:36.:52:47.

order to stay in. There has been a sea change in Europe, it's just that

:52:48.:52:51.

the bureaucracy and European leaders don't seem to have noticed that

:52:52.:52:56.

there were major inroads made by anti-European parties just a few

:52:57.:53:00.

weeks ago in European elections. The question is will they take notice or

:53:01.:53:06.

continue on the same direction? What will our changes the EU believe it

:53:07.:53:12.

would convince you at the time of a referendum to stay in? I want us to

:53:13.:53:19.

have a much looser relationship, back to a common market. I want to

:53:20.:53:23.

see lots of powers coming back to the UK. The end of free movement? I

:53:24.:53:28.

think if you can get free movement to be related just the labour

:53:29.:53:33.

market, then that's where I would like to go. I don't believe in ever

:53:34.:53:37.

closer union because the logical in point of that is union. If David

:53:38.:53:44.

Cameron is unable after the Juncker fight to use that phrase, if he is

:53:45.:53:50.

unable to do anything about so-called benefit tourism, your view

:53:51.:53:55.

would be that we should leave the EU? The first thing would be that we

:53:56.:54:03.

will have to win the general election so that we can have the

:54:04.:54:08.

referendum. So we are now in this referendum territory. Some people

:54:09.:54:09.

have said Liam Fox will referendum territory. Some people

:54:10.:54:23.

renegotiation. I have told you I want a looser relationship. Being

:54:24.:54:26.

out holds no fear for me but if we are able to get a relationship

:54:27.:54:31.

closer to the won the British people voted for in 1975, a looser

:54:32.:54:36.

relationship, that is fine and dandy. Sounds like a potential

:54:37.:54:42.

leader of the no campaign to me. Now the news headlines.

:54:43.:54:45.

Good morning. There's a warning that

:54:46.:54:47.

the conflicts in the middle-East will have a long-term effect

:54:48.:54:49.

on security in Britain. Speaking on this programme the

:54:50.:55:00.

former defence secretary Liam Fox suggested the security forces might

:55:01.:55:04.

need more resources and powers to deal with any threat to Britain.

:55:05.:55:08.

David Cameron will call for a vote amongst EU leaders on who should be

:55:09.:55:12.

the next leader of the European commission. The move has been

:55:13.:55:16.

the next leader of the European described as unprecedented and comes

:55:17.:55:19.

as nine left-wing leaders from across the EU have agreed to back

:55:20.:55:24.

Jean-Claude Juncker. David Cameron has argued strongly against the

:55:25.:55:32.

move, saying Mr Juncker is too much of a Brussels insider to back the

:55:33.:55:34.

reform. The next news is on BBC One at one o'clock.

:55:35.:55:49.

reform. The next news is on BBC One after this programme. Comedian and

:55:50.:55:55.

chef Hardeep Singh Coli, and June Brown.

:55:56.:56:00.

on security in Britain. Since winning the BBC Young Musician

:56:01.:56:03.

of the Year competition ten years ago, the Scottish-Italian violinist

:56:04.:56:05.

Nicola Benedetti has had a stunningly successful career.

:56:06.:56:07.

She's performed all over the world, including at the Last Night

:56:08.:56:09.

of the Proms, and recorded a string of albums.

:56:10.:56:11.

She's also a passionate advocate of music in schools,

:56:12.:56:14.

and involved in a BBC project to introduce children to ten essential

:56:15.:56:16.

pieces of classical music. She has

:56:17.:56:18.

a new Scottish-themed album out. And she can be seen next month

:56:19.:56:21.

at the Cheltenham music festival. Nicola, welcome.

:56:22.:56:29.

You have a scheme to get classical music out to schoolchildren in

:56:30.:56:37.

Britain. Yes, I will be advocating for it. You play lots of classical

:56:38.:56:49.

music on your album but also lots of fast Scottish fiddle music, how

:56:50.:56:53.

difficult was that? It is difficult to adjust, it is such different

:56:54.:56:59.

mental and rhythmical style, it is a lot of adjustment for me to do but

:57:00.:57:04.

the community around the folk scene embrace everyone and they are

:57:05.:57:08.

wonderful. And you will be giving me some burns, which is as it should

:57:09.:57:10.

be. Nicola, welcome.

:57:11.:57:14.

That's all we have time for this morning.

:57:15.:57:24.

But for now, appropriately enough, we say farewell with Nicola

:57:25.:57:25.

Benedetti and Auld Lang Syne.

:57:26.:57:33.

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