24/01/2016 The Andrew Marr Show


24/01/2016

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This will be, sorry everybody, a year of elections. London, Scotland,

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local authorities, and the small matter of the EU referendum, we

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suspect. This morning it is a election special. Nicola Sturgeon on

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David Cameron and Zac Goldsmith on Zac Goldsmith.

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I am joined by Scotland's First Minister, who warns the Prime

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Minister that an early EU referendum would be a huge mistake. And the

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Tory MP hoping to become London mayor. With the hideous Jimmy Savile

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saga still in the headlines, I am also joined by the woman charged,

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apparently, with keeping the BBC honest. Rona Fairhead, the chair of

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the BBC Trust. And we will hear from the Hollywood veteran, Harvey

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Keitel, on recapturing Youth with Michael Caine and Jane Fonda in a

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sublime at new film. Plus music from one of the most emotional and

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hilarious song writers of our time, John Grant. # What we've got down

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here is ocean. His new album is called GRey Tickles Black Pressure

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critical is apparently a Icelandic translation for midlife crisis. So

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to the papers. One, the global crash in the markets and two, the fallout

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from the Putin assassination story. We have Louise Cooper, the city

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analyst, and Russia expert, and Applebaum. First, the news.

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More than 85 million people in the United States have been

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affected by a fierce snowstorm that has brought much of the east

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The blizzard has dumped over a meter of snow in some places.

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At least 18 people have been killed and 11 states have

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Our Washington Correspondent Laura Bicker reports.

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The battle has begun. As this blizzard enters its final hours,

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there are attempts to try to clear up to two feet of snow from the

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nation's capital. In Washington, the budget has been one of the worst in

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the city's history, turning this famous view of the White House into

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a white out in 24 hours. In New York, where the snow has been worst

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than forecast, close try to reclaim dance-wear. All travellers banned in

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the city. If you drive on the roads, you will be arrested. That is to

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allow the officials to begin the clear up. When the snow eventually

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stops in the early hours of Sunday morning, that is what officials will

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be concentrating on. They want to get public transport back up and

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running but that could take some time. They have to clear up to two

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feet of snow from the city streets up and down the east coast. People

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have to heed these warnings now and immediately get home. And again, the

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NYPD will enforce this travel ban. 7000 flights have been delayed or

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cancelled, so there will be a knock-on effect at the airports.

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When the clean-up begins, it could take some time and it could be

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expensive. The Road Haulage Association has

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repeated its call for the French military to intervene at the Port

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of Calais after what it's described Yesterday evening

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hundreds of migrants broke Operations at the site were halted

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for several hours while The incident followed

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a demonstration in Calais in support of refugees, which attracted

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two thousand people. A former Labour pollster has told

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the BBC a report into why the party lost last year's election

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was a whitewash and a massive missed Deborah Mattinson -

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who worked with Gordon Brown and Tony Blair - says her voter

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research work was ignored in the review by Dame

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Margaret Beckett. Labour argues that the report had

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consulted far and wide - taking input from pollsters,

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pundits and academics. I feel very concerned that lessons

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will not be learned. That was the vehicle, that was the moment. And if

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this report does not address those issues, then I am not sure when they

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will be addressed. And you can see more on the story

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of Labour's election defeat, on the Sunday Politics,

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later on BBC One. That's

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all from me, for now. I'll be back with the headlines

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just before ten o'clock. The Mail on Sunday has a 6-year-old

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being groomed for jihad in British suburbia, it says. Lots more like

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that in the papers. A terrifying story, if true, in the express

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suggesting that era attacks on London, Brighton, Bath and Ipswich

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have been foiled after the RAF overheard pilots talking. The Sunday

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Mirror has got the Putin story again. The killers left of polonium

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trail at the embassy. Everywhere they went, they left a trail of

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polonium, not very clever. The Sunday Telegraph, a substantial

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story saying that 40 MPs have demanded a meeting with the prime

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minister because they are so worried that he is not getting enough in his

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EU normalcy -- EU negotiations. Scotland on Sunday, the Tories

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should cut the tax from devolved powers in Scotland. And finally, the

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Observer, Britain poised to open the door to thousands of migrant

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children through the so-called jungle camp in Calais. Jeremy Corbyn

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saying that Britain should let in the children from that camp.

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And with me to review the papers are Ann Applebaum and Louise Cooper.

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I said at the beginning of the programme, one of the big stories of

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the week has been the fallout from the Putin story. One of the oddities

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of the story is that it is happening now. Litvinenko was murdered nine

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years ago and since he has been murdered, everything we know has not

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changed. Nothing in the report was new. The report illustrates the

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ambivalence that Britain has about Russia. On one hand, imagine if

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Al-Qaeda brought nuclear material into central London and began

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poisoning people. The would be an amazing outcry. But because it was

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Russia, people were careful and hands-off, and it is an illustration

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of a deeper problem in Britain. Or even if this had happened in the

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1970s or 1980s, there would have been huge expulsions of diplomats

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and massive rows. Why the ambivalence? It is because the City

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of London makes so much money from Russia and so many people are

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connected to Russian money. Nobody wants to object to it. Why was

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Litvinenko here? Why are so many Russians attracted the London? It is

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because it is a money-laundering centre, according to one Russian

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today. This is because it is a place that they can keep their money

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privately and invest in housing. When I look at this story, all I

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think is, you were telling me the British Secret Service have not

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assassinated people in Russia? I find that these are the kinds of

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games they play. I would be surprised if they have assassinated

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people. I would be surprised if they have assassinated people using

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polonium. Clearly not a good idea. And they clearly did not expect

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that. One of the problems, to what extent could Putin go further, if he

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is provoked or he feels he is on the edge of losing power? This is

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connected to your financial story because one of the ways he stays in

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power is by creating crises which only he can solve, like Ukraine and

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Syria. The question is, if he really begins to be challenged, and the oil

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price falls, then maybe he will decide that oil prices need to go up

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and he needs to do something in the Persian Gulf or maybe he decides he

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needs to destabilise Britain. Or try to provoke some kind of conflict.

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Edward Lucas wrote a good piece in the Telegraph. He is interesting

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because he wrote a book about the Cold War published ten years ago,

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and that the time everybody thought it was ridiculous. But slowly, it

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comes to pass. I don't think Russia can control the oil market. One of

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the problems we have is that thanks to fracking, America is producing

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more oil. There are stocks are at record highs. You might want to do

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that, and his economy is in trouble, the ruble is collapsing and it is in

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deep recession, and the oil price is at a record low. Finally an Putin,

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if he is pressed against the wall, how far mighty goal in terms of

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Europe? -- how far mighty goal. We don't know. We know is what he

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practices, what he trains to do. When they do military training, they

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practice the invasion of the Baltic states and they practice the bombing

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of Poland. We now that Russian planes buzz the Swedish coast. I had

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no idea there was a Swedish Russian stand-off. The rows, and a Swedish

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desire to join NATO, which there has not been for many years. But at the

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same time, the only way to get to the International Space Station is

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the Russia. That is the ambivalence we are talking about. Less

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ambivalent, but we will pick that up on the world economy. Are we on the

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edge of falling off a cliff or not? A great piece in the people. I love

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the cartoon. The thing about stock markets, they predict recession but

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they are not always accurate. There is a great expression that says that

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stock markets have predicted 25 out of the last nine recessions. They

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tend to predict them when they do not happen. China has been growing

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for 25 years and we have never been in a place where it has gone into a

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recession when it is the second-biggest economy in the world.

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There is massive uncertainty and we do not know if we can even believe

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that the Chinese GDP figures this week. It is very uncertain. I guess

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the argument about being too bearish, and Niall Ferguson

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this in the Sunday Times, is that we are

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this in the Sunday Times, is that we want to buy, driverless

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this in the Sunday Times, is that we world economy and commodity

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this in the Sunday Times, is that we have gone down. Inevitably, they

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will bounce back up again. I remember $9 oil in 1998. We are down

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to the Prix boom position. -- the position before the boom. The point

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about turning points is that it is very difficult to save when they

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will go down or up. It is characterised by volatility. We

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don't have enough information to know but we have enough information

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to worry. At the moment, we have record unemployment, lower than

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before the crisis. All of that looks good. And there is a story in the

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Sunday Times about George Osborne, and you kind of deal -- a new deal

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on a break in certain legislation from the EU. He says he once an

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early referendum because he is so worried about what is going to

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happen with the economy later in the year. At that point, the political

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class loses control. And that is the difficulty with a referendum. It is

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very unlikely that the EU referendum will be a referendum on the EU, it

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will be a referendum on how people in Britain feel about the outside

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world. If the world looks scary and frightening, people will vote

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against. And an extent to which the political class has a real grip on

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these movements around the world. It was a good piece in the Observer on

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the effect on London of the super-rich. This is connected to

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what we said before. Central London has been colonised by the very rich

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and that has been true for many years, but it is the intensity of it

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and the degree to which prices are driven up all over the place. Of

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course, it is remarkable. What is amazing is that no political party

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as yet tried to capitalise. None of the mayoral candidates. We are very

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worried about migrants, puree migrants, but what about the

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super-rich? -- poor migrants. This is a report that accuses the

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political elite of being the servants to the super-rich. If you

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think about the number of businesses that spin off from this phenomenon,

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art dealers, concierges, drivers, real estate, it is a lot of people.

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The property industry, I was at a panel with them and clearly they

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feel it is marvellous that we have a lot of foreign buyers in London, and

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one of them said, we can have jobs because we look after their houses

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when they are away. I said, the British economies cannot be based on

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housemaids and decorators to rich Londoners. And it also means that

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young people cannot afford to live in London and many things do not

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come here because of that. I think that is a long-term threat to the

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London economy, which is a bit of a powerhouse for the country. We're

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talking about how much local politicians, as it were, have to

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control global financial stories. And this story is Google and the

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deal for ?130 million in back taxes. And this has been in pretty much

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every paper. The left-wing papers are criticising it, saying it is not

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enough, but interestingly, the right wing papers are saying the same.

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Labour are talking on the National Audit Office to investigate this

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agreement to pay ?130 million in back taxes. One paper has said, we

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have looked at the numbers and that only looks like a 2.6 Corporation --

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2.6% corporation tax rate, not bad if you can negotiate it. The bigger

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picture is that Apple is negotiating with EE you over back taxes in

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Ireland. And that, according to some city analysts, to be billions. And

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it will make this look particularly ridiculous. -- with the EU. Nicola

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Sturgeon said the crucial thing here was transparency, that we need to

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see in detail how those negotiations went and how this figure was agreed

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between the Treasury and Google. You mentioned Labour, there is a lot

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of Labour in the papers again today. Deborah Mattinson has blasted this

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review, and that looks to me like the Mail on Sunday. This is kind of

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unsurprising dog bites man story. The Labour Party published in

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official report about why they lost the election, then a private report

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says something different. I would be surprised if any political party

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wouldn't do the same. The interesting question now is what

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were the issues that Labour missed? Is Jeremy Corbyn fit to address

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them? The issues we have just been talking about for the last five

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minutes are there. The tax and global corporations, the hollowing

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out of London... These are real issues people care about and I

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didn't hear Labour mobilising them in the last election campaign. One

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other story you picked out was about faith schools, nagging pain. Nagging

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pain, especially for those wanting to get their children into school.

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Faith schools to be protected from secular campaigners, who want to ban

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section of people based on religion. I believe faith schools should be

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banned and we should be secular education. My children have gone to

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a great school to be fair, but 50% of the places go to church of

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England regulars. I am discriminated against and my children are

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discriminated against because we don't play the go into the church

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game, which many parents do. On that provocative note, our time is up.

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Quite mild here but as you may have noticed from the news,

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all of the east coast of America has been closed by snow.

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Presidential contender Donald Trump has already blamed Muslims,

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that is quite clearly Islamic snow, but Obama's done nothing about it,

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and before you tweet this it's possible I'm lying.

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Alex Deakin is in the weather studio.

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You are definitely not lying about the storm and I can prove that

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because here it is on the satellite picture, now clearing away from the

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eastern side of the United States. Before it arrives on our shores, it

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will bring wet and windy weather. Temperatures are really quite high

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for the time of year. Lots of fog sitting over the hills. More

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persistent rain across parts of Scotland but that is clearing away.

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Overall it is a dry, cloudy day but some breaks in the cloud. We could

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see some hints of sunshine, even where it is cloudy, 13, 14. In the

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sunshine, 16 degrees as possible. Clearer skies over England and Wales

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tonight. Tomorrow morning, Monday morning, no excuses for the weather

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for getting out of bed because it really will be mild. Patchy rain for

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England and Wales, more persistent rain coming into the north-west

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later on. That storm system clearing away from the United States, by the

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time it gets to England, all of the snow has been sucked out of it.

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Many thanks for that. Now, before David Cameron made

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it to Downing Street, the Tories had an election-winner

:18:54.:18:55.

in Boris Johnson, who's coming to the end of two

:18:56.:18:56.

terms as London Mayor, and the party's proposed replacement

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is another old etonian who's pursued his own highly

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independent line on issues such as the environment and

:19:03.:19:04.

the expansion of Heathrow. Can Zac Goldsmith hold

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the capital for his party? Are you a Eurosceptic? Yes, I've

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always been a Eurosceptic. I believe the European institutions are

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profoundly undemocratic, unaccountable and far too

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centralised. I would like to see exactly the promise that was in the

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manifesto on which I stood, I'd like to see the Prime Minister delivering

:19:33.:19:39.

meaningful reforms so that the Eurosceptic... Not head-bangers, I

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wouldn't describe myself as a head-banger on this issue, I would

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like to see a meaningful reform package so that people like myself

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could vote to stay in. I wish him well, it is not the job I envy. Liam

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Fox is talking about the Prime Minister going around Europe with a

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begging bowl, do you think that is accurate? He is in the middle of a

:20:02.:20:06.

very intense negotiation. If he succeeds it will benefit the whole

:20:07.:20:12.

of Europe, not just the UK. It is a very tough job, I think he is doing

:20:13.:20:16.

as good a job as he is able to do at the moment but it is tough and when

:20:17.:20:22.

he comes back people like me... And the beautiful thing about the

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referendum is that it takes it out of the hands of the Prime Minister

:20:26.:20:28.

and gives it to the people, they will take a view. So you genuinely

:20:29.:20:33.

don't know how you will vote at the moment? No, because as a courtesy to

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the Prime Minister I want to judge the final offer as a whole, and I

:20:42.:20:46.

will take a view based on the national interest, I could be

:20:47.:20:50.

persuaded either way. I once meaningful reform but at the same

:20:51.:20:54.

time that's what I'm hoping the Prime Minister will achieve. Michael

:20:55.:20:59.

Howard said he doesn't think it is likely we will get meaningful

:21:00.:21:05.

reform, do you agree? I don't want to pre-empt it, it is tough. Every

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newspaper has a different take on what he will bring back, I don't

:21:10.:21:14.

know, I'm not part of those reforms. I wish him well. I hope he has put

:21:15.:21:18.

the bar sufficiently high to be able to persuade people that is in our

:21:19.:21:24.

interests. As Mayor of London, if that happens, you will be in charge

:21:25.:21:27.

of the city with massive effect on the British economy. Goldman Sachs

:21:28.:21:32.

has already paid a lot of money towards the end campaign at the

:21:33.:21:37.

moment so you could find yourself potentially in confrontation of some

:21:38.:21:41.

of your biggest financial constituents. I don't believe

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business speaks with one voice on this issue. The Federation of Small

:21:48.:21:51.

Businesses the Chamber of Commerce, the CBI all take different views.

:21:52.:21:55.

Big business tends to be more likely to want to stay in, small businesses

:21:56.:22:00.

are more likely to want to come out but business doesn't speak with one

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voice. There have been suggestions by Goldman Sachs and spokesmen from

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other companies that the city has jitters over the referendum itself

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but the referendum will happen whether we like it or not. I think

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it is a very good thing. Nobody has been asked their opinion since I was

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born. It is happening so we have got to deal with that. It is important

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that whatever we decide, it has a democratic mandate, something that

:22:31.:22:33.

is deeply lacking in the project at the moment. You will have heard

:22:34.:22:37.

possibly in the paper review we were talking about the effect on London

:22:38.:22:43.

of big money pouring in. A report suggesting the London political

:22:44.:22:48.

elite are the ushers for the super-rich and there is a lot of

:22:49.:22:51.

money-laundering going on, what kind of Mayor Will you be in that regard?

:22:52.:22:57.

You don't want to turn the taps off on overseas investment in London.

:22:58.:23:03.

London has boomed for the last eight years. There is a problem that even

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though people can see the success in London, they can see the building

:23:09.:23:13.

being built... But they cannot afford to live there. That's the

:23:14.:23:19.

problem, too many people feel they have been priced out of their own

:23:20.:23:24.

city. Even if you earn double the average London salary, you will not

:23:25.:23:28.

be able to afford to buy a home in London. That is an economic crisis

:23:29.:23:33.

and that must define the next mayor and probably the one after that as

:23:34.:23:37.

well. The challenge is taking that extraordinary success story that is

:23:38.:23:42.

Boris Johnson and turning it into something that translates into

:23:43.:23:47.

people's lives. Two weeks ago David Cameron was talking about

:23:48.:23:53.

demolishing the big London Estates, my question to you is can you

:23:54.:23:57.

guarantee that for every council house that is demolished, that there

:23:58.:24:03.

will be at least one put back at the same kind of rent? I am very excited

:24:04.:24:15.

by the agenda... Yes or no? I have made it clear that I want to see the

:24:16.:24:20.

dilapidated poorly designed Estates from the 1950s regenerated, with a

:24:21.:24:24.

commitment, first that the communities have got to agree.

:24:25.:24:29.

Otherwise I would not want to progress with that. And that

:24:30.:24:32.

everyone who lives in those states would be able to return to a new

:24:33.:24:40.

home at no extra cost. So there will be enough social housing to replace

:24:41.:24:42.

the social housing being knocked down? No one would be required to

:24:43.:24:49.

leave their home, and I know that's possible... Have you spoken to the

:24:50.:24:55.

Prime Minister about this? I am hoping to be mayor, then I can write

:24:56.:25:00.

this into the London plan but he has the capacity to transform London. A

:25:01.:25:04.

lot of your party talk about affordable housing, what exactly is

:25:05.:25:12.

that? Legally, it is a 20% discount, but in the real world a 20% discount

:25:13.:25:17.

on a home in Primrose Hill is not affordable. The average house price

:25:18.:25:27.

in London is over ?400,000. That's exactly the point so a legal

:25:28.:25:32.

definition is not all that helpful. For someone on an average London

:25:33.:25:37.

salary who cannot afford an average price home in London, neither can

:25:38.:25:42.

they afford a social home, a social home for which they will never

:25:43.:25:48.

qualify is as unattainable as Roman Abramovich's mansion in Chelsea. You

:25:49.:25:53.

have got to build for people across the income spectrum. If you don't,

:25:54.:25:56.

we will not resolve the housing crisis in London. For London at the

:25:57.:26:09.

moment, we could get rid of one old Etonian and replaced him with

:26:10.:26:12.

another, what does that say about social division? I would never hide

:26:13.:26:20.

from my background. I have never shied away from the fact I was dealt

:26:21.:26:25.

a very good hand in life but equally my record shows I have, at every

:26:26.:26:30.

single moment of my adult life, sought to play that hand while. I

:26:31.:26:36.

have campaigned against injustice, as a backbench MP I have held my

:26:37.:26:42.

government to account, and you can see that my constituency has become

:26:43.:26:50.

a very safe Conservative seat. And you have called him divisive and

:26:51.:26:56.

radical, is that code for Muslim? We have seen this extraordinary

:26:57.:27:02.

revolution in Labour, we had somebody last week talking about

:27:03.:27:07.

wildcat strikes for London, there is an extraordinary radical proposal

:27:08.:27:11.

that Labour is putting forward and Sadiq Khan as an architect of that.

:27:12.:27:16.

To describe him and his party as radical is a no-brainer. Thank you

:27:17.:27:18.

for joining us. In his Hollywood career,

:27:19.:27:21.

Harvey Keitel has worked with some truly great directors such

:27:22.:27:23.

as Scorsese and Tarantino. He almost worked with Kubrick

:27:24.:27:25.

and Coppola but fell out Perfect preparation then

:27:26.:27:28.

for his latest movie in which he plays a feisty

:27:29.:27:30.

American film director who, at the end of his career,

:27:31.:27:33.

is hoping for one last hit I spoke to Keitel recently

:27:34.:27:36.

about the new film, Youth, which I can for once

:27:37.:27:39.

honestly say is fantastic, in which he and Michael Caine play

:27:40.:27:41.

old friends coping with old age and the eternal

:27:42.:27:44.

torments of the heart. It's a thriller, it's

:27:45.:27:59.

an exciting movie. The music is phenomenal -

:28:00.:28:03.

the lyrics and music were composed by David Lang,

:28:04.:28:05.

something extraordinary. Now listen, do you see that

:28:06.:28:10.

mountain over there? This is what you see

:28:11.:28:14.

when you're young. And that's what you

:28:15.:28:20.

see when you're old. It seems to me, in the end it's

:28:21.:28:33.

a film about the kind of mystery and confusion about

:28:34.:28:46.

simply being alive. It's a film about being alive,

:28:47.:28:48.

it seems to me, but it's also about ageing, about male friendship

:28:49.:28:51.

as well, these kind things. It's quite specific

:28:52.:28:53.

about the problems of ageing Why is it called Youth

:28:54.:28:55.

to start with, in your view? You heard me, 60 years ago you swore

:28:56.:28:59.

you'd never slept with her out The real tragedy, and believe me,

:29:00.:29:05.

it really is a tragedy, is that I can't even remember

:29:06.:29:20.

if I slept with Gilda Black. Why was Reservoir Dogs

:29:21.:29:26.

called Reservoir Dogs? It has no meaning for

:29:27.:29:32.

Quentin whatsoever! It was like Kodak,

:29:33.:29:39.

it was just a good phrase. So, how important in your life was,

:29:40.:29:41.

for instance, Taxi Driver, You're right, it was a breakthrough

:29:42.:29:47.

moment for me in many ways in terms of becoming an actor,

:29:48.:29:55.

and I was stretching. Martin Scorsese had asked me to play

:29:56.:29:58.

the campaign worker in that film, which Albert Brooks played,

:29:59.:30:01.

and I asked him to let me He said to me, "Harvey,

:30:02.:30:04.

the pimp only has five lines," at the time, before

:30:05.:30:25.

you saw the movie. He was described as an Italian guy

:30:26.:30:27.

stands in a doorway, So everything you saw I got

:30:28.:30:37.

from the environment I lived I lived in Hell's

:30:38.:30:41.

Kitchen in New York. I used to walk home

:30:42.:30:44.

through the pimps and the girls So you have these great directors

:30:45.:30:47.

and friends who have been very important in your career but you've

:30:48.:30:59.

also not got on so well What was the problem

:31:00.:31:02.

with Kubrick and Eyes Wide Shut? Mr Kubrick did some things

:31:03.:31:05.

I objected to. I didn't like it, I thought

:31:06.:31:08.

it was disrespectful and I won't be And if any actor can help it,

:31:09.:31:11.

they should help it. You don't want to get

:31:12.:31:15.

fired, but I was. OK, so this was obviously

:31:16.:31:17.

an immense project, Youth. One of the weird things about Youth,

:31:18.:31:31.

as somebody watching the film, is the number of people popping up,

:31:32.:31:34.

you get Paloma Faith suddenly appears, you get Maradona,

:31:35.:31:37.

not looking his greatest I have to say, and you get Jane Fonda

:31:38.:31:39.

who appears as this great muse I don't owe anybody

:31:40.:31:42.

anything, I did it myself. And gives him the most withering

:31:43.:31:47.

treatment right at the end of the film, that must have been

:31:48.:31:50.

an extraordinary scene to do. The entire script was

:31:51.:31:54.

extraordinary for me to do. It was kind of story

:31:55.:31:56.

you look for in a novel. he gave me a lot of freedom,

:31:57.:32:02.

and that was something I needed. And how about your off-screen

:32:03.:32:22.

relationship with Michael Caine? Because the two of you on screen

:32:23.:32:35.

have this fantastic, warm, but slightly

:32:36.:32:38.

barbed friendship. People keep thinking and Michael

:32:39.:32:45.

keeps saying we didn't know each other, but when we met we discovered

:32:46.:32:48.

he was in the British Army, I was in the American Marines,

:32:49.:32:51.

probably two of the rare actors that We used the language of the bond,

:32:52.:32:54.

which I can't share Mr Keitel, thank you very

:32:55.:33:03.

much for joining us. Now, if the nationalists had won

:33:04.:33:08.

the 2014 referendum in Scotland, their plan was for the country

:33:09.:33:17.

to become fully independent exactly They lost of course,

:33:18.:33:19.

yet swept the board at last year's general election, and hope to win

:33:20.:33:24.

a third term in power in Scotland Yesterday I spoke to the SNP leader

:33:25.:33:27.

and First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, I began by asking about one

:33:28.:33:36.

of the most challenging issues facing her government -

:33:37.:33:39.

the crisis in the North Sea oil So what can she do about it?

:33:40.:33:42.

are being scrapped, So what can she do about it?

:33:43.:34:04.

the headline date of tax that companies pay. But I think there is

:34:05.:34:07.

work that the Scottish Government and the UK Government can do

:34:08.:34:11.

together to support the local infrastructure in Aberdeen. The oil

:34:12.:34:14.

and gas sector in the North Sea has a strong future if we do the right

:34:15.:34:18.

things but we have to make sure that the infrastructure of Aberdeen is

:34:19.:34:21.

right to support that sector over the next few years, as well as

:34:22.:34:25.

diverse versification. At the referendum, the Scottish Government

:34:26.:34:30.

predicted up to a ?7.9 billion revenue from North Sea oil and gas

:34:31.:34:35.

to the Scottish Government, which is now a 13th of that. A huge hole in

:34:36.:34:39.

the revenues. How does that change your thinking? Of the projections

:34:40.:34:44.

are that the Scottish Government made was in line with all the

:34:45.:34:50.

external advice. I remember David Cameron in the final few months of

:34:51.:34:53.

the referendum campaign saying vote no for an oil bonanza. We have been

:34:54.:35:01.

given the difficulties with oil and gas. We have to remember the real

:35:02.:35:06.

strengths of the Scottish economy, notwithstanding the difficulties we

:35:07.:35:11.

are seeing in the North Sea. We have higher employment in Scotland than

:35:12.:35:17.

other parts of the UK right now. We have had three years of continuous

:35:18.:35:21.

economic growth, the longest continuous periods in the lifetime

:35:22.:35:23.

of the Scottish Parliament. Employment levels at record highs,

:35:24.:35:28.

higher than the prerecession peak. If you knew that ?7 billion of

:35:29.:35:35.

revenue, that has to be made up somehow. How are you going to make

:35:36.:35:39.

it up? Our growth in onshore revenue over the next few years is expected

:35:40.:35:45.

to outstrip the decline in the offshore revenues. Even the most

:35:46.:35:49.

pessimistic projections will fall every year over the rest of the

:35:50.:35:54.

decade. It is a point that is often lost, the case for independence. I

:35:55.:36:00.

take some responsibility for not getting this argument across during

:36:01.:36:04.

the referendum campaign. The case for Scotland as a strong,

:36:05.:36:07.

independent country was never based on oil. Nonetheless, you were

:36:08.:36:12.

talking about a second oil boom, which has not exactly happened. What

:36:13.:36:18.

I'm saying is our projections were not out of line with external

:36:19.:36:21.

projections. Let's hear more about what the UK Government that wanted

:36:22.:36:25.

to keep believers that affect the North Sea in their hands, what they

:36:26.:36:29.

are going to do. I hope that in the next few days we hear positive news

:36:30.:36:33.

about support for the North Sea and the deal for Aberdeen. Speaking of

:36:34.:36:37.

David Cameron, you have been negotiating with him about the

:36:38.:36:40.

Scotland Bill and greater powers for Scotland. I was that going? The new

:36:41.:36:47.

powers in the Scotland Bill do not go anywhere near as far as I would

:36:48.:36:51.

like. I do not think they go as far as was promised during the

:36:52.:36:54.

referendum campaign but they are powers that I would rather have then

:36:55.:36:59.

not have. In parallel, we are negotiating the fiscal framework

:37:00.:37:02.

that goes around that. I much money you have got. To take into account

:37:03.:37:07.

the new tax and spending powers. These negotiations are ongoing. If

:37:08.:37:11.

we are going to get these new powers in place, the negotiation has got to

:37:12.:37:16.

conclude by the middle of February. Time is short. The clock is ticking.

:37:17.:37:21.

And there is a long distance still to travel. The Scottish Government

:37:22.:37:25.

will be busting a gut to try to get a deal. We will need to see more

:37:26.:37:29.

movement, significantly more movement from the UK Government than

:37:30.:37:30.

we have seen so far. If we do not get that, I will not

:37:31.:37:50.

sign up to something that is unfair to Scotland. I am not asking for

:37:51.:37:53.

special favours or special treatment, I am simply asking for

:37:54.:37:55.

fairness. I will not agree to something that does not deliver

:37:56.:37:57.

that. David Cameron should be under no illusions about that. Another big

:37:58.:38:00.

political events could be the EU referendum. If the country votes to

:38:01.:38:03.

leave the EU, if we get a break set, with that trigger a further Scottish

:38:04.:38:08.

independence referendum. -- a Brexit. If Scotland faces being

:38:09.:38:11.

taken out of the EU when we do not want to be, I think it is highly

:38:12.:38:18.

likely that would trigger an overwhelming demand for a second

:38:19.:38:21.

Scottish referendum on independence. The Democratic outrage has been

:38:22.:38:26.

taken out of Europe -- of being taken out of Europe against our will

:38:27.:38:30.

would make that inevitable. If we do votes to leave, there will be lots

:38:31.:38:34.

of questions about what happens next, negotiations and staff to sort

:38:35.:38:39.

out. In that period, we could have a Scottish referendum? That would be

:38:40.:38:43.

bringing in political meltdown in terms of our institutions. I do not

:38:44.:38:50.

want that situation to arise. I am not taking a Machiavellian view

:38:51.:38:53.

about this where I want to engineer that scenario because it would lead

:38:54.:38:58.

to a second independence referendum. I will argue for Scotland to votes

:38:59.:39:02.

to stay in the EU and I will argue, if people in the UK care to listen,

:39:03.:39:06.

I will argue that the UK as a whole should vote to stay in the EU. It is

:39:07.:39:11.

suggested that David Cameron wants to hold the referendum on June the

:39:12.:39:16.

23rd. Is that a problem for the SNP? It would be a mistake for David

:39:17.:39:21.

Cameron. The Foreign Secretary was injured last week and I said the

:39:22.:39:25.

same to him directly. Two reasons I will not be in fear -- in favour of

:39:26.:39:32.

a June referendum, it might be deemed as selfish, but the Scottish

:39:33.:39:39.

election is in May. I think to have a referendum campaign starting in

:39:40.:39:43.

parallel would be disrespectful to those elections. You still have

:39:44.:39:48.

seven weeks after it. But given the statutory campaign period, you would

:39:49.:39:51.

undoubtedly start to confuse those issues. The second reason, I think

:39:52.:39:55.

it would be better for David Cameron to leave more time between if he

:39:56.:40:01.

gets a deal at the February European Council, to leave more time between

:40:02.:40:04.

that deal at the point of the decision. One of the problems I see

:40:05.:40:09.

for the in campaign is that as far as David Cameron is concerned, it is

:40:10.:40:13.

very focused on these narrow issues of free negotiation when in actual

:40:14.:40:17.

fact, if the campaign is going to fail, this will have to become a

:40:18.:40:22.

positive, principled campaign about why it is better for the UK to stay

:40:23.:40:26.

within the European Union. It needs to become a yes campaign. While

:40:27.:40:32.

there are differences between the Scottish campaign and a European

:40:33.:40:36.

referendum, there are definitely analogies. If the in campaign

:40:37.:40:40.

behaves the way the no campaign behaved during the referendum, I

:40:41.:40:45.

fear that they will lose. The two campaigns started miles apart in the

:40:46.:40:48.

polls in Scotland, and we had a negative... You call that project

:40:49.:40:55.

fear. They almost lost because of that negative campaign. In the

:40:56.:40:59.

referendum, the two campaigns are much closer to start with and if the

:41:00.:41:03.

in campaign falls into the trap of the no campaign, I feel it will

:41:04.:41:07.

lose. Many people looking at the electoral system across the UK think

:41:08.:41:11.

it is almost impossible for Labour to win the next election with a

:41:12.:41:15.

majority at Westminster. One way through that might be some grand

:41:16.:41:19.

alliance with the SNP, if the Labour Party came to you and said that we

:41:20.:41:23.

have genuinely gone through a change of heart, a change of soul, and we

:41:24.:41:28.

are genuinely like in favour of Scottish home rule, is there any

:41:29.:41:32.

kind of negotiation you could have? -- genuinely in favour. Before the

:41:33.:41:37.

election, the SNP said we wanted to be part of a Progressive Alliance

:41:38.:41:41.

and it was Ed Miliband who turned his back on that. I think he could

:41:42.:41:45.

have done better if they had handled that issue differently. But if there

:41:46.:41:50.

was a change of heart? I don't think Labour is credible in any sense at

:41:51.:41:55.

this point but I don't think that is for me to sort out. But they agree

:41:56.:42:02.

with you a lot of issues including austerity and taxation. All of those

:42:03.:42:08.

agendas, but not Trident. I wonder what you made of the suggestion that

:42:09.:42:11.

you could keep Trident submarines but not have nuclear missiles on

:42:12.:42:15.

them. I think it was ridiculous and it was a sign of just how torturous

:42:16.:42:20.

these debates within the Labour Party are becoming. I agree with

:42:21.:42:25.

Jeremy Corbyn, I am not in favour of the renewal of Trident. We might

:42:26.:42:28.

have a vote on that in the House of Commons sooner rather than later and

:42:29.:42:31.

I think the challenge to Jeremy Corbyn is, can he get his party into

:42:32.:42:35.

the position he wants them to be in so that we can have any chance at

:42:36.:42:40.

all of stopping the renewal of Trident. For Labour to sit on the

:42:41.:42:44.

fence on this issue or have a free vote on this issue will leave them

:42:45.:42:48.

without a shred of credibility. On this issue, I hope Jeremy Corbyn can

:42:49.:42:52.

stamp his authority on his party and do so quickly. There are lots of

:42:53.:42:57.

Scottish issues we could talk about. One of the things that causes

:42:58.:43:01.

controversy is the closure of the Forth Road Bridge for so long. There

:43:02.:43:05.

was originally rolling maintenance and repairs and it was taken away

:43:06.:43:10.

and moved to other departments. That was a bad mistake, wasn't it? All of

:43:11.:43:14.

the essential maintenance that was required to be done was done, and

:43:15.:43:21.

the disrepair, the problem with the bridge, and there is a Parliamentary

:43:22.:43:24.

enquiry into this right now that is ongoing, but the problem that

:43:25.:43:28.

occurred on the Forth Road Bridge was something that was unforeseen

:43:29.:43:32.

and unforeseeable. There are engineers that say it was not on the

:43:33.:43:35.

receivable and that it was not unforeseen. -- it was not

:43:36.:43:42.

unforeseeable. There is nothing that was proposed to be done to the Forth

:43:43.:43:45.

Road Bridge that was not done because of budgetary issues. The key

:43:46.:43:55.

thing of importance, that the travelling public should be aware

:43:56.:43:59.

of, is that that bridge was fixed thanks to engineers performing

:44:00.:44:02.

heroics over the pre-Christmas period, sometimes with difficult

:44:03.:44:06.

weather conditions. As we speak right now, cars are trundling across

:44:07.:44:10.

the bridge in both directions and hopefully HDV will be before long.

:44:11.:44:17.

Something that has entertained the country greatly has been the passage

:44:18.:44:22.

of arms between Alex Salmond and Donald Trump. Should he be banned

:44:23.:44:27.

from Scotland? That is not my decision, perhaps thankfully. As

:44:28.:44:31.

First Minister, I took the decision of taking away the status of global

:44:32.:44:39.

Scott that we have given him, asking him to promote the country overseas.

:44:40.:44:43.

It is not politic for a head of government in one country to pass

:44:44.:44:50.

comment on an election in another country. I have every confidence

:44:51.:44:53.

that the good sense of the American people will prevail on the question

:44:54.:44:59.

of Donald Trump. Finally, I will be talking to Rona Fairhead, the chair

:45:00.:45:03.

of the BBC Trust, on this programme, and I know the SNP's views on the

:45:04.:45:07.

future of broadcasting is interesting, what is your statement

:45:08.:45:16.

to her? If you look at the most recent audience Council figures,

:45:17.:45:20.

something like 65% of people outside of Scotland thought that BBC news

:45:21.:45:26.

and current affair is reflected their life. The figure was less in

:45:27.:45:32.

Scotland. We have put forward a proposal that the BBC should have a

:45:33.:45:36.

more federal structure with more platforms and programming in

:45:37.:45:39.

Scotland. You have suggested a specific Scottish channel?

:45:40.:45:43.

Absolutely. And I think that BBC Scotland would agree with that as

:45:44.:45:47.

well. These are proposals we put forward constructively, as part of

:45:48.:45:50.

the Charter renewal debate and I hope that the BBC and the BBC Trust

:45:51.:45:55.

will listen to those proposals carefully. I think the BBC is an

:45:56.:45:58.

institution that we should protect and that we should support. But I

:45:59.:46:03.

also think the people in BBC Scotland have a right to see the BBC

:46:04.:46:09.

reflect life in Scotland better than it has done perhaps in the past.

:46:10.:46:12.

Nicholas Dudgeon, First Minister, thanks for talking to us. -- Nicola

:46:13.:46:15.

Sturgeon. And so to the chair of the BBC

:46:16.:46:19.

Trust, Rona Fairhead. 2016 is a big year for the BBC -

:46:20.:46:21.

as negotiations get under way The Government has made clear it

:46:22.:46:25.

expects the BBC to be managed more efficiently,

:46:26.:46:29.

and to focus on its core role as a public service broadcaster,

:46:30.:46:31.

and we'll discuss that. Plus, the damage to the BBC,

:46:32.:46:33.

caused by the revelations about one its former stars,

:46:34.:46:36.

Jimmy Savile. You heard Nicola Sturgeon, something

:46:37.:46:45.

big will have to change in Scotland, will it not? I think the licence fee

:46:46.:46:52.

payers have been very clear they want more portrayal, more

:46:53.:46:56.

representation, not just in Scotland, across the nations and

:46:57.:47:01.

regions. Does that mean more investment in Scotland in specific

:47:02.:47:07.

terms? It means more work has been pushed out, BBC was very London

:47:08.:47:12.

centric, now more than 50% is outside of London, that's a good

:47:13.:47:18.

direction of travel. Moore is produced in Scotland, Wales, Salford

:47:19.:47:21.

and around the country. What we need now is to make sure that

:47:22.:47:26.

sustainable, but people can look at their screens and see themselves,

:47:27.:47:31.

whether they are Scottish, from a particular age group or ethnic

:47:32.:47:36.

group. What about a Scottish channel? We are looking at all

:47:37.:47:41.

options right now. The important thing is the people of Scotland feel

:47:42.:47:47.

they are portrayed. Which they clearly don't enough at the moment.

:47:48.:47:53.

No, the statistics say something has got to be done to improve that. Yes,

:47:54.:47:59.

we have got to improve that, however one of the glories of the BBC is

:48:00.:48:04.

that it reaches across the UK. It allows the UK to come together. The

:48:05.:48:11.

Scots watch Sherlock, enjoy it even though it's made in Wales, similarly

:48:12.:48:22.

the Welsh love Shetland. Almost 90% of the Scottish people watch

:48:23.:48:26.

channels that are across the country. So we are now on to what

:48:27.:48:32.

the BBC should be through the charter renewal process. Do you

:48:33.:48:35.

think it will emerge from this process is a radically different

:48:36.:48:39.

organisation? I believe it will be an improved organisation, but not

:48:40.:48:45.

radically changed. We have done a huge amount of work with the public,

:48:46.:48:50.

they are very clear, extraordinary support for the BBC. They want it to

:48:51.:48:55.

be broadly as it is, in fact 60% would want it to do more versus 10%

:48:56.:49:01.

wanting it to do less. It is not perfect but the public are very

:49:02.:49:08.

clear that they like the BBC, they wanted to inform, educate and

:49:09.:49:13.

entertain but they also want to have some things change and they are very

:49:14.:49:20.

clear what -- about what they are. They wanted to be independent...

:49:21.:49:30.

These sound very change. -- very vague, I'm interested in specific

:49:31.:49:34.

things. For instance is the music channel safe? People who watch

:49:35.:49:48.

programmes... Is it a yes or no. Everything is being looked at, it is

:49:49.:49:52.

a tough settlement but the executive will work out what it is they need

:49:53.:49:58.

to cut, the efficiencies... The priority will be on making sure the

:49:59.:50:02.

programmes, the stations people listen to will be protected as much

:50:03.:50:06.

as possible and I cannot say that anything is off table. So there will

:50:07.:50:14.

be further cuts? We have been very clear from the start that everything

:50:15.:50:18.

will be done to improve efficiency but it is likely that some

:50:19.:50:22.

programmes and potentially some services will be affected. That's

:50:23.:50:26.

the nature of what has to be done but the priority will be making sure

:50:27.:50:32.

that the programmes the public love, the sports, the news will remain

:50:33.:50:37.

strong because the BBC is paid for by the public, that is what they

:50:38.:50:45.

want. The Savile report, there has been a leak of it, more than 60

:50:46.:50:53.

attacks by Savile including four rapes, horrible things going on

:50:54.:50:56.

behind the scenes, an appalling story... I know it is in the past,

:50:57.:51:01.

but it shows the BBC in a very bad light indeed. Yes, I am horrified.

:51:02.:51:07.

These appalling behaviours that were allowed to pass on checked. The

:51:08.:51:12.

victims have suffered so much, incredibly traumatic. We failed as

:51:13.:51:21.

an institution, did we not? We failed, the BBC needed to do better.

:51:22.:51:28.

You have got to admire the courage to come forward. Only people do that

:51:29.:51:32.

can they understand what happened and learn the lessons. The BBC has

:51:33.:51:37.

changed its culture and its processes, and this is one thing I

:51:38.:51:42.

can say to you and it is really important - if Dame Janet Smith

:51:43.:51:46.

comes with any further changes that are needed, they will be done. I

:51:47.:51:50.

stand in front of you to say the trust will ensure the management

:51:51.:51:55.

seat is held to the fire to make sure those changes are implemented

:51:56.:52:00.

and as quickly as possible. Dame Janet Smith says she thinks it's

:52:01.:52:06.

possible there could be someone in the BBC now, abusing and bullying

:52:07.:52:12.

people. I would hang on there. You are talking about a leak of an

:52:13.:52:16.

earlier release of the report. Out of respect of the victims, we have

:52:17.:52:22.

got to wait until the formal report is published. Dame Janet Smith, a

:52:23.:52:27.

very senior judge, she has got to make sure this is right, that the

:52:28.:52:31.

evidence is right and we will make her assessment. I'm very happy once

:52:32.:52:36.

the report is published to come back and talk about it. Let me talk about

:52:37.:52:44.

the principle. Is it possible that even now there is a very

:52:45.:52:49.

high-profile match regarded BBC talent behaving badly and still that

:52:50.:52:55.

culture of deference and hostility to whistle-blowers, and a feeling

:52:56.:52:58.

you look upwards and you are worried about what your bosses are saying

:52:59.:53:07.

stops but? We have got to be in an environment where people are

:53:08.:53:13.

comfortable to raise their hands and say that is not acceptable. The BBC

:53:14.:53:18.

has put in all sorts of measures to protect children, they now have

:53:19.:53:22.

chaperones, there are screenings Dawn of people who work with

:53:23.:53:27.

children, they are put in a very comprehensive whistle-blowing line.

:53:28.:53:30.

Anything we can think of that can be done is being done and that is my

:53:31.:53:38.

assurance to you. Some people say that you should not be in charge of

:53:39.:53:42.

the BBC Trust because of your involvement in HSBC in the past

:53:43.:53:47.

which was involved in helping British citizens, well off people,

:53:48.:53:53.

avoid paying tax in Switzerland, what do you say? We have said as a

:53:54.:54:02.

bank that we accept responsibility and we have said we are deeply sorry

:54:03.:54:07.

for any reputational damage and what happened. What we chose to do was to

:54:08.:54:13.

stay and fight. There has been enormous change... And you knew

:54:14.:54:18.

nothing about this at all at the time? We had independents come in

:54:19.:54:26.

with information, this was not disclosed. Improvements have to be

:54:27.:54:30.

made and the reason I stayed is because the board asked me to stay,

:54:31.:54:34.

but more importantly the regulators with whom I worked did. My focus is

:54:35.:54:42.

now on the BBC, people want it to be independent and broad and

:54:43.:54:46.

well-managed. We have got to finish. Thank you.

:54:47.:54:47.

Now over to Christian for the news headlines.

:54:48.:54:49.

Scotland's First Minister has warned David Cameron that holding an early

:54:50.:54:52.

referendum on the UK's membership of the EU would be a mistake.

:54:53.:54:55.

Nicola Sturgeon told this programme that a June poll risked 'confusing'

:54:56.:54:58.

elections to the devolved assemblies in Scotland,

:54:59.:54:59.

The SNP leader also said the campaign for the UK to stay

:55:00.:55:05.

in the EU needed to be more positive in tone than -

:55:06.:55:08.

she claimed - the campaign against Scottish

:55:09.:55:10.

We had a negative campaign from the no campaign and they almost lost. In

:55:11.:55:28.

the EU referendum, the two campaigns are much closer to start with. If

:55:29.:55:33.

the income paying falls into the trap of the no campaign, I fear it

:55:34.:55:36.

will lose. -- be in campaign. The Conservative candidate

:55:37.:55:55.

for London mayor said the Prime Minister had

:55:56.:55:56.

a 'really tough job', in renegotiating the Uk's

:55:57.:55:58.

relationship with the EU. Zac Goldsmith said

:55:59.:56:00.

he was a euro-sceptic, but had not made up his mind

:56:01.:56:02.

which way to vote in the referendum. But he said he hoped David Cameron

:56:03.:56:05.

had 'set the bar sufficiently high' in terms of his demands for reform -

:56:06.:56:08.

to persuade people that it was in the UK's interests

:56:09.:56:12.

to stay in the EU. At ten o'clock we will be asking if

:56:13.:56:17.

sugar should be regarded as dangerous, research on embryos, how

:56:18.:56:22.

far should it go? And do organised religions put people off believing?

:56:23.:56:25.

Join me again at the same time next week, when I'll be talking

:56:26.:56:33.

to the Lib Dem leader, Tim Farron, and to businessman and campaigner

:56:34.:56:36.

But we leave you now with the man who The Times described as one

:56:37.:56:41.

of the best songwriters since Leonard Cohen.

:56:42.:56:44.

From his new album, 'Grey Tickles, Black Pressure' this is John Grant,

:56:45.:56:48.

# I want what I was promised, I'm a bit impatient

:56:49.:57:22.

# And what is it exactly that you think that you deserve

:57:23.:57:28.

# No more, no less, is that ridiculous

:57:29.:57:41.

# Cos what we got down here is oceans of longing

:57:42.:57:44.

# And guessing games, and no guarantees

:57:45.:57:53.

# And you work so hard to be in control

:57:54.:57:59.

# And now you're laughing at yourself because you can't let go

:58:00.:58:09.

# Cos all we're doing is learning how to die

:58:10.:58:17.

# Do you really think that nobody sees the fear behind your smile?

:58:18.:58:23.

# And why do you care what anybody thinks at all?

:58:24.:58:31.

# It's all going to the same thing in the end

:58:32.:58:39.

# And what we got down here is oceans of longing

:58:40.:58:45.

# And guessing games, and no guarantees

:58:46.:58:54.

# And you work so hard to be in control

:58:55.:59:00.

# And now you're laughing at yourself because you can't let go

:59:01.:59:27.

As we'll be discussing, cosmologists are studying...

:59:28.:59:28.

The way the French feel about Joan of Arc.

:59:29.:59:31.

You sat on a windowsill and said... How old are you, Grandad?!

:59:32.:59:37.

Shall we call the police? Obviously not.

:59:38.:59:39.

I still carry that little caterpillar.

:59:40.:59:42.

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