15/05/2016 The Andrew Marr Show

This is the week the heavy pounding really started

Hugely controversially, the Bank of England itself has waded in,

infuriating Brexit campaigners who are now calling

Mark Carney, that governor, joins me for a rare live

TV interview to defend what the Financial Times

Andrea Leadsom, former Treasury minister, is the Leave

She's worked in the City and she's sure the governor's wrong.

There's another big story brewing this week.

There are rising fears about a return of Irish Republican

Arlene Foster is Northern Ireland's First Minister

and has experienced terrorism at first hand.

We'll ask her why the threat is back.

She's not the only female leader on the show, however.

All across Britain, people went a bit soppy

for Birgitte, the fictional Danish Prime Minister in Borgen.

I've been talking to the Statsminister herself

We recently gave you some Bach at the end of the show.

This week we've played safe and gone for some gentle Americana

# So I guess we have to wonder what we might have been.

All that and a great trio reviewing today's news stories.

The broadcaster and columnist Julia Hartley-Brewer,

the entrepreneur and former Number 10 adviser Rohan Silva

and the editor-in-chief of Buzzfeed UK Janine Gibson.

But first the news with Ben Thompson.

Boris Johnson has said the EU has the same aim as Hitler -

The Conservative MP and leading campaigner

has told a Sunday newspaper that officials in Brussels

are using different methods to the Nazi leader.

But their goal is the same - to unite Europe under one authority.

The Labour MP and Remain supporter Yvette Cooper has accused Mr

David Cameron is planning what he calls more intensive

action to help children in care in England, promising better support

The new law would mean better regulation of social work

and encourage the permanent adoption of children, even when it

The moves will be outlined in the Queen's Speech on Wednesday.

Police in Kosovo have arrested a former Roman Catholic priest

sex abuse allegations. with historical child

in connection with child sex offences allegedly carried out

while he was Abbot of Ealing Abbey in West London in the 1990s.

He's expected to be extradited to the UK.

Ukraine has won the Eurovision Song Contest with a song

about Joseph Stalin's deportation of the Tatar people

The Ukrainian singer Jamala beat favourites Russia

And Britain's Eurovision entry, Joe and Jake,

I'll be back with the headlines just before ten o'clock.

If you look at the front pages, it is really one story above all.

Boris, the EU wants a superstate, as Hitler did. The Sunday Times, Dave

fears Boris will be the next leader. And in the Sunday mail, Nigel Farage

agrees, I will back Boris as Prime Minister. Lots and lots of Boris.

And this is an interesting moment in the campaign, I think. It often

happens during a referendum campaign. The moment when the

establishment loses control of shaping the story. David Cameron is

saying he will keep Boris and Michael Gove off the TV and not

debate with them, and then he gets Nigel Farage who will be even more

ferocious with him and so forth. Lots to talk about. Julia, starting

with the Sunday Telegraph. Yes. Big columnist in the Daily Telegraph,

Boris Johnson. He wants a superstate, like Hitler did. We find

this extraordinary will stop it is being overplayed. He said the

European Union are looking towards a federal superstate and various

people have tried this. Napoleon, Hitler of course, everyone mentions

him. But it is much more nuanced than the headlines. I am not

normally one to say that Boris is nuanced, but he is carefully staying

that the EU is not like Hitler. He is saying that again and again we

try for a united Europe and it always ends in chaos. This plays

into the idea that the Remain camp is saying we don't want uncertainty

and if you are worried, vote for what you know, the EU. And the

Brexit camp, which I am strongly in, is saying that is risk but actually

it is the opposite. The risk is staying in.

He is saying that the EU as it is not an option. There is no status

quo option. The only option is leaving or hurtling down on this

train that takes us towards a federal superstate. Total political

European Union. And the language becomes more and more extreme with

the Prime Minister warning of World War three and now Boris is using the

Hitler word, which will be picked up by the headlines of course. Now,

Tories in meltdown as Boris plays at cool. A different tone in the Sunday

Times. Yes, Boris being nuanced with a Cornish ice cream. The nation's

press were forced to follow him on a bus to Cornwall this week so there

are of lot of photographs of him with foodstuffs. And this is just a

way into a massive spread, post-referendum party politics

almost. Very irritating policy led debate. Just get straight back into

Boris against Dave, with an ice cream. Put him on a zip wire and see

who wins! You are doing Buzzfeed, which young people all use as their

main news source. Many young people use it as their main news source

these days. It is a different kind of news source. Lots of lists,

Britain's favourite avocado, that kind of thing, but you have got to

do the heavy policy stories as well. How do you sell something like

European debate to younger less politicised users? Yes and we also

do huge amounts of investigative journalism for people, as we call

them. You asking me about young people and they tend to be very

interested in things that are relevant to them. In a case of the

referendum, we have been focusing on students who are being driven to

register to vote but in the wrong place. They are being pushed through

campaigns to register to vote in their university towns but when it

comes to the referendum they will be in the wrong place, in Glastonbury,

not where they have been registered. We are drawing attention to that and

making people realise. Looking at face value at the newspaper

headlines, not a great day for the Prime Minister who you used to serve

but he can turn inside the papers and find something more cheerful,

the opinion polls. That is right. The suggestion that the Remain

campaign may be further ahead than people thought. The view in Number

10 is that this will come down to turnout. The front page of the

Observer, the Electoral Commission will be funding a ?2.4 million

campaign to try and get more people to sign up to vote. 7.5 million

people in the UK are not registered to vote in this coming referendum. A

big spread inside the Observer with the focus particularly on young

people. If you look at the last election, only about 43% of 18 to

24-year-olds turned out to vote but over 78% of over 65s. The

youngsters, if the Buzzfeed readers and others can turn out to vote, it

will make a difference. This is the Jeremy Corbyn style of campaigning

and how is that working so far? I think if young people do turn out to

vote, it will probably make a difference. Youngsters are more

likely to back Remain. I had some news from the Prime Minister who has

been watching the programme and he said he did not warn about World War

three. You misunderstood. He did. He knew perfectly well that is what the

headlines would be. Are we carrying on with this story or shall we move

on? There are other stories, extraordinarily. It is amazing.

Fascinating. We have heard so much about schools in the last few weeks,

exams, stress, the father who went to the High Court, and here we have

a story about parents competing for places at the best schools. 200

parents were caught cheating trying to get their children into good

state schools. I salute those parents. It is wonderful parenting.

It is crazy that you cannot send your kid to the local comprehensive

and know that it is a good school. The fact that people have to pretend

and lie about where they live to get their children into a good school is

terrible. That if you are lucky enough to have your home where there

is a decent state school, lucky you, but salt the other kids. Nobody

should be put in this position. What about the other kind of fixing the

system? This guy who has taken his kids out of school to go on holiday

and have taken it to the High Court? Now anyone can take their children

out of school to go on holiday. Observe. We brought these rules in

to protect children and a stabbings he knows better than everyone else.

It's children has very good regular attendance. Four weeks a year she

lost. My daughter has only lost five days, all to illness. Parents that

think the rules do not apply to them, that is worrying. Do the rest

of you agree? I come from a long line of schoolteachers and people

with proper jobs and people would be very worried about children losing

any school at all. It is the one form of compulsion that people seem

to be in favour. Now another huge political story, Eurovision. I can't

believe it has taken this long. We all wanted to lead on that! It may

be European referendum look like nothing. In the end Ukraine beat of

Russia with a song that was all about troops pouring into somebody's

hasn't killing their family. Let's have a little look at the sun.

# They kill them all and say we are not guilty.

# Not guilty. Not exactly uplifting, is it? Terrible song! Difficult not

to laugh. I voted for Spain. The Daily Mail has managed to find the

silver lining for Britain. We didn't do too well. Every song except one

was sung in English, so at least we have that going for us. Wasn't there

an Austrian song in French? We covered this extensively but one of

the things we did was find this brilliant picture. This is great. I

love this. Make Eurovision gay again because obviously that is in doubt.

I noticed several tweets last night claiming that the Ukraine victory

was gay men in Europe sticking it to Russia. And that is not actually

Donald Trump's had it just ought to be! This is brilliant. Make America

a great British again. Brilliant. Up until the last vote, Australia were

winning. There were some tweets going around. Leave the European

Union. We can't even win the Eurovision Song Contest we are so

rubbish! The whole of Europe can't win it! Before we finish, there is a

proper old-fashioned story in the Sunday Times about Nelson Mandela,

saying that the CIA tipped off the South African authorities before he

was arrested. Truly fascinating story and journalism. 1962, Nelson

Mandela on the run, how is he caught? A former CIA agent has

claimed that it was the CIA that tipped him off, fearing Communist

intrusion into South Africa. It was the CIA that handed him over, tipped

off the authorities. If that is true, it really changes people's

view of this historical moment. And America's relationship with South

Africa drawing the Cold War. The outcome today will be very

interesting between Pretoria and Washington, whether that is true or

not. Back home with the BBC, you have chosen a story that says that

the BBC said it is too Christian and must diversify. I feel for them. We

have only just agreed the charter for the

next 11 years and if we are going to start again already on the lobbying

and the interest groups, then we will all lose the will to live so I

would like to appeal to every possible interest group to just dial

it down for a couple of years, and we will listen to your thoughts

again about bias around 2018. OK? We started with the European debate

story but we have not mention Sajid Javid. He describes himself as a

Eurosceptic, the great enemy of the Euro, hostile to the European

superstate, but he has changed his mind because of the single market

issue which we have discussed endlessly on this show. I built it

was very interesting from Sajid Javid, what he said on the Telegraph

website. He says why he has come round to voting Remain and backing

them, and he is signalling the next phase of the Remain campaign. This

week we will see more business leaders coming out in favour of

Remain so I think they will dial up to 11 the business argument. It has

been there throughout, talking about the economic risks and benefits, but

the voice of business, arguably, hasn't been as present as it might

have been an Sajid Javid is signalling that is about to start.

Julia, is that what you fear? Brexit is on the issue of migration and

technical issues of sovereignty, but on the economy... On the economic

side, Remain has been strong. But again, Sajid Javid is supporting

Remain for his political career. Again, we know that big business

loves the European Union because they can lobby the wrong body. Lots

of small businesses have no business whatsoever with the European Union.

In fairness, a lot of entrepreneurs are not engaging. It is striking I

think that the Remain campaign have been very focused and I think pretty

disciplined talking about economic risks and benefits. The Leave

campaign strategically have worked through a number of different

arguments on immigration, sovereignty, as well as the economy.

Remain don't want to mention immigration, the extra people living

in the country we didn't know about, best not to mention it!

The security services warned last week that the threat

to Great Britain from dissident Irish Republicans is at its highest

After the recent elections in Northern Ireland,

Arlene Foster has been returned to office as First Minister.

In addition to heading up a power-sharing executive

with Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness, she's also emerged as Northern

Ireland's most high-profile campaigner for the UK

The First Minister joins me now from County Tyrone.

We have had MI5 in effect warning the Irish republican terrorist

threat is alive again for the mainland. In simple terms, why is

this? Of course we have had that threat with us right through those

20 years you were talking about and indeed as recently as March we had

the murder of a prison officer so that threat has been very much

present in Northern Ireland and we have had to deal with that. We were

surprised to hear the threat had increased to substantial in terms of

Great Britain, and for me that means we have to work even harder in terms

of the administration instalment and to work hard in relation to our

paramilitary strategy, the resources we have put in to deal with

criminality and to work with our neighbours in the Republic of

Ireland as well to make sure we eradicate this threat. He mentioned

criminality, in the view of many people what happened was that the

IRA put their guns away but then their revolt effectively a

gangsterism that carried on for a while. Are we now saying that

gangsterism has in itself mutated into a new form of Republican

violence? I think the dissident republicans used the cover of

republicanism to engage in criminality in many areas but they

also seek to move us backwards and in Northern Ireland we need to make

sure we continue to move forward and bring stability to Northern Ireland

in a way they don't want to see happening because they don't accept

Northern Ireland can be what it is today, and that is an open regional

economy working hard in the UK. We need to continue our work instalment

to reject what has happened from these people. You are very

well-known in Northern Ireland. Some people don't know you quite so well

from the other side of the water. You have of terrorism in the old

days, what happened to you? My father was an IUC officer and the

IRA came to murder him when I was just eight years old but thankfully

he survived that attack in our home. Then I was 17 years old, when I was

going to school, the boss I was travelling on was blown up by the

IRA as well but thankfully no one was killed on that occasion. They

were targeting the bus driver who was a part-time member of the

security forces. I know very well what terrorism is all about, the

fear it can bring to communities so that spurs me on to make sure we

don't go back to those dark days. Now you face this new merged group

which people call the new IRA. Is it a sophisticated group capable of

planting bombs, does it have access to weaponry? They are groups that

have got capability, they have shown that by the murder in March this

year. They tend to work with booby traps and things like that but it is

alarming to hear that the threat level has increased in Great Britain

and obviously we will want to keep an eye on that and monitor that

situation and work with the security services in the UK but also in the

Republic of Ireland as well. The tea shop has suggested that the UK

leaving the EU could harm relations between northern and southern island

and could indeed endanger the peace process in some way are you worried

about that? No, because the peace process is built between the

communities in Northern Ireland, the relationship between ourselves and

our closest neighbour the Republic of Ireland, and the UK, so it's not

based in terms of the European Union and I cannot understand why anyone

would make those sorts of remarks. That was disappointing to see

William Hague makes similar remarks last week in the Daily Telegraph. I

couldn't understand where he was coming from because the peace

process and what we are trying to achieve in Northern Ireland is not

waste on the European Union in any way. I suppose one of the great

symbols of the peace process was the border barriers coming down. It has

been said on this programme by Nigel Lawson that if we leave and we are

no longer part of the EU, those barriers would have to come off

again. What are they? -- would very? We recognise that the Republic of

Ireland is our closest neighbour and may benefit greatly in terms of

trade with the UK, Great Britain is their biggest export destination,

and so we will still have to work through all of that and we will do

if we come to a situation where we decide to leave. It will become part

of the negotiations. The big intervention in the debate this week

was the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney. Were you

surprised or offended by what he said? I was surprised given his

independent role. Being a former economy minister here in Northern

Ireland, one of the things that alarms me is the overreaching

bureaucracy of the European Union. I think we could benefit greatly if we

left the European Union. We would be free of that bureaucracy and for a

small region such as ourselves, the key elements of growing our economy

is to have speed and flexibility. Frankly we have neither of those in

the European Union. We want to have a good, strong regional economy

within the UK and we believe the best way to have a global outlook is

to leave the European Union. Very clear. Thank you for joining us this

morning. One thing that's going to happen

later on today is the weather. If you want more detail, I suggest

you listen to Darren Bett. It is already happening. It should

be a good day for most today. We start with the weather watchers'

pictures. Blue skies in Cambridge, we will keep the cloud in Scotland.

After a chilly start temperatures are rising quickly, and as

temperatures rise so we will see a bit more club developing. Cooler in

the central belt, and a light wind down the east coast. Mixed fortunes

as we head into the evening and overnight we will hang on to more

cloud in Scotland, down the eastern side of England, may be squeezing

out the old rogue shower but generally dry. It could turn chilly

in the countryside. This is where we have the best of the early sunshine.

Make the most of it because as temperatures rise, so cloud will

develop. But today is going to be again... One or two showers but dry.

However, as we head into next week things will change. It looks more

unsettled with sunshine at times but wind and rain too. At least it won't

be as cold at night. Is there any more secure job than a British

weather forecaster? Now, whenever I talk to anti-EU

Tories about the effect of leaving on the City and indeed the wider

economy, they always say to me She worked in the City

and she was City On these matters she's probably

the leading voice of Vote Leave. Was Mark Carney right to intervene?

After all the Bank of England has responsibility in the economy. If we

left and there was a downturn, would we point and say why didn't you tell

us? No, it was an incredibly dangerous intervention. The core job

of the Bank of England is to ensure financial stability, so to get

involved with purely speculative what might households and businesses

do, that is not in their remake. They are not there to promote

financial instability and that is what they have done. Do you think he

has made Brexit more likely? Totally. A central bank should just

say we have the tools, and if he doesn't think he has the tools he

should be talking to the Chancellor. He has come up with some nonsense,

purely speculative stuff on what might happen if we leave and only

looking on the downside. Almost everybody seems to agree there would

be some kind of jolt to business, even Boris Johnson has said, and in

a on his job to warn us? Let's be clear the governor signs off on

these things. This is only looking at what doom scenario might be. It

doesn't take into account the certain fact that we will have a ?10

billion per year independence dividend, straightaway as soon as we

leave the EU. That is a vast sum of money, it is all of the five-year

dividend the head of the NHS is looking for to keep the NHS on the

road. It doesn't take into account the impact of people now being able

to resist uncontrollable immigration, the impact on public

services of remaining. It doesn't take into account so many issues. We

think the monetary policy committee did discuss these things but the

full minutes will stay private for six years. Do you think after this

intervention we should see those minutes published in full? I would

think the processes will remain intact but I suspect the Governor

will be significantly regretting getting involved in politics,

destabilising the market in the exact opposite to the way he should

do, and I'm quite sure he will be wishing he hadn't done it. When it

comes to economic risk, some people will say it has also been Christine

Lagarde, the IMF, President Obama, a whole series of substantial voices

independent of British politics who have been saying the same thing.

There is this big ganging up on the poor British voter, but these people

who are very rich and successful, they don't see the poor British

voter who is trying to get a decent primary school place, trying to get

a doctors appointment, they are the people living with the consequences

of being a part of this EU bureaucracy. You yourself used the

same list of institutions, Obama, Christine Lagarde, Mark Carney, when

you were defending the Government's record so why are you not listening

to them now? That is not the case. I have a quote. The IMF have got it

wrong with regard to the UK economy. They said we should not sort out our

public sector debt problem and now they have it in their words.

Perusing the importance to Cathy Jamieson, you said, perhaps you

would like to hear the views of Christine Lagarde who runs the IMF.

You said the same thing about Obama and Mark Carney. When it suits you,

you grow these people in evidence because they are bigger authorities

and when it doesn't suit you, you say they are ganging up on the

British voter. That was in the context we IMF had had to eat their

words for getting their forecast wrong. Economic forecasting is to a

large extent on art and not a science. It is crystal ball gazing.

Maybe Mark Carney would like to say how many times the Bank of England

has got their forecast spot on, it is not very many. These people also

we should join the euro, the world would implode if we didn't. It is

the most successful financial services Centre in the world and we

didn't join the euro, and aren't we glad we didn't.

Sajid Javid has written interestingly in the papers today.

He describes himself as a Eurosceptic, against the Euro and so

on, but the thing that has changed her mind and made him a Leave

voter... Remain! Well spotted! When he looked at the effect of the

single market on the service economy, he found that a huge

proportion of our exports depend upon it, and he was determined this

was the right thing to do. Of the other countries that the EU has

negotiated a deal with, not one has full access into the single market.

In truth, its UK exports to the EU have flat lined to slightly going

backwards in recent years. The EU has been notoriously bad at trading

services within the EU, not because there are tariffs in trading terms,

but because there are non- trade tariffs. They put up barriers. In

fact, the UK has done incredibly badly in terms of EU trading

services. Where the EU has done that is in goods. 70% is in goods. UK has

missed badly. It is not true to say that we will be worse off without

access to the EU trading market. Exports of ?226 billion, nearly half

of which goes to Europe, but of the trade agreements that the EU has had

more than 50 countries, not one gives service industries the same

level of guaranteed access as the single market. Not one. He's not

wrong about that, is he? It is much more complicated than that. The huge

proportion of that is financial services. Let's be clear, the UK is

a world's biggest financial services centre. Nowhere in Europe even comes

close. We compete with New York, Singapore

and Hong Kong. That will not change. The EU needs UK financial services.

This is not a case of saying we will not deal with you any more. They

desperately need us. The UK accounts for 40% of the EU's whole-cell

financial services and they will not risk losing that. Coming back to the

single market, it is of considerable value to many UK companies and

consumers and leaving would cause at least some business uncertainty

while embroiling the government for several years in a fiddly process of

negotiating new arrangements, diverting energy from the real

issues. That is Boris Johnson. Do you agree with that? No. The point

is that we have no tariffs between us and the EU. We have spent 43

years aligning our goods and services with them, so negotiating

the free trade arrangement will be as easy as we want it to be.

It is not as if we are India where the history and culture and straight

terms are very different. They are completely aligned. You think a fast

and easy negotiation? Totally. You know the City so well. Lots of these

banks, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, they say very clearly

that if we vote to leave, they will have to move their headquarters out

of London and into Frankfurt or Paris. One of the bosses said to me

that was the only choice they had. Complete rubbish, Andrew. Why? The

UK trade more dollars than in the United States. UK is a massive

global financial services centre. One tiny bit of Canary Wharf is

bigger than the entire private -- Frankfurt district. We have more in

Edinburgh, Aberdeen, even Bournemouth or Northampton. This is

a vast industry. It is not going anywhere. The German stock exchange

will be based in London. Hong Kong and Shanghai banking corporation, a

huge bag, they have just done a study on why to be and they will

stay in London. We have got to follow the money and stop listening

to what people are saying about it. A story about Conservative election

fraud in various by-elections, that has been bubbling along and it is

becoming louder and louder. Eight police forces are now investigating.

Is this very serious now for the Conservatives? It is quite clear

that the Conservatives had battle buses, as did the other parties, and

they made those expenses claims according to the national campaign

rules. The allegations are only against the Conservatives, as I

understand it. I think you are right but the Conservative Party does not

believe any rules have been broken and so this bubble is on the

genuinely in all conscience there is no believe that anything has been

done that is against the rules. Andrea Leadsom, thank you for

joining us today. Of all the Nordic TV dramas,

Borgen was the most unlikely hit. But it had as its lead the luminous

Sidse Babett Knudsen. Before Denmark even had a female

Prime Minister, she made the machinations of a coalition

government seem really interesting Now she's hit Hollywood,

starring alongside Tom Hanks. A Hologram For The King

sees her playing an expat in Saudi Arabia helping Hanks cope

with his mid-life burn-out Actually I feel like

a pane of glass that I figured I'd be executed

at customs. Sometimes, yes, but you know Wi-Fi

is the least of our That's what you tell

anyone who asks. Just have a little taste

when you get back to the hotel. I'm pretty sure it will

shatter your glass. You kind of represent

Western decadence in There's the wild party

at the Danish embassy, there's the passing of the whiskey,

you're a certain kind of westerner. Certain kind of westerner,

certain kind of ex-pat as well, Yeah, really in nowhere's land,

and just trying to stay alive I thought of that, of it

being somewhere with different But it's also a film about Western

and Eastern culture clash. Again, I'm very interested

in the way that, when you are making the film, you experience any

of that culture clash. It always surprises me when I leave

Denmark and go somewhere else Men and women equality,

we're just so used to it. It's a wake-up call again -

no, it isn't like that. And even the woman concierge

or whatever will, you know, I was travelling business class

and I was a business There was this guy coming

in behind me and she just We live in a time when there's been

lots and lots of huge mistakes or errors by big money and big

politics in the West. We've had those wars,

we've have the financial crash, and I wonder if there's now

a kind of western fantasy of mother coming and looking

after everybody properly. A kind of liberal, maternal

figure who takes power and sorts it all out,

and that's perhaps partly why Borgen has

been so successful. After you'd made Borgen,

there was indeed a female Prime Minister in Denmark,

and a lot of the politics of Denmark that followed

that seemed to be almost Well, a lot of the events

were life imitating art. I don't know, I mean Adam Price

might have had a crystal ball. I don't know how it happened,

but it was, we did end up having so many even scandals that we had

already shot happening in the real Maybe we saw that more

in her private life but I think it balanced out

as an almost real human being. You have been working

on big Hollywood films. How different an experience is that

from doing a TV Is your life changing very

dramatically because of that? When I was playing Birgitte,

I was an actress of course, but I was so much in

talking with the writers and following the research,

and it was... I felt I was part of

the team telling the story. I feel very lucky because I love

going from one thing and doing I've just been doing

a lot of that lately. I have done so many things

for the first time, This new world that you live

in takes you away It is so lovely to love

your country from afar. When you have it from afar,

when you represent I don't miss it but I'm

home now, that's nice. Lovely to talk to you,

thanks so much. Polls suggest that the governor

of the Bank of England could have more influence on undecided voters

than any of the leading politicians on either side in

the great EU debate. But he's walked into the lion's den,

with his warnings that a vote to leave the EU could lead

to another recession. Hysterical, over the top

and undignified was the response from the Out campaign,

with one Tory MP demanding his Notably unresigned, Mr Carney

is with me now. You look very dapper and cool that a

huge torrent has been poured over your heads since he took this

decision. Andrea Leadsom has said it was a very dangerous thing to do. So

why in short did you feel that you had the right and possibly the duty

to wade into a British political argument? The first thing to say is

thank you for having me on. I understand there is a lot of passion

on all sides of this debate. Central banking is not a passionate

business. It is subjective, analytical, evidence based, and the

judgments we take, and I emphasise the word we, these judgments taken

by independent committees, nine members the Monetary Policy

Committee, those judgments are carefully considered. Those

judgments only reflect our remit is, our mandates, the issues we have to

deliver. We have to deliver the inflation target. You looked at

sovereignty. The issues around the referendum are much broader than the

issues concerning the Bank of England. When the Monetary Policy

Committee looked at the most recent forecast, its most recent decision,

and crucially its most recent letter to the Chancellor about bringing

inflation back to target, we have got to talk about the trade-off

between inflation and growth. And that trade-off could be very

different in a scenario if the UK were to remain in the European Union

versus one if it were to leave. Sure. You are not a naive observer

of the scene. You have linked yourself very closely to the

Chancellor, George Osborne, and the Treasury view, and yet you are

supposed to be independent. We are absolutely independent. It is an

independent committee. We are not linked to the bigger questions about

the longer-term economic impact of being in or out. What we are doing

is identifying risks around Leave and we are taking steps as an

institution to mitigate those risks. There are risks both ways and yet

you focused only on the Leave risks. That is not true. Our central

forecast is for Remain. We always take government policy. That is the

standard approach of the Bank of England and our forecast is for

that. We go in great detail into the risks around that. We will come onto

that and I'm glad you have said that. Lord Lamont, former

Chancellor, can't be dismissed, he talks about the daily avalanche of

institutional propaganda and he says it is becoming ludicrous and

pitiful. Imported institutions are being politicised, and I

think is talking about the Bank of England here, and they are used to

make bloodcurdling forecasts and the governor should be careful who does

not cause a crisis. That is fair enough. We have learned in the

United Kingdom from past mistakes. High variable inflation, the debacle

of the ERM exit. The lesson from that was to adopt inflation

targeting, Bolivia executed by my predecessor. The lesson of the

financial crisis was to give an institution responsibility for

identifying risk, not to cross your fingers and hope that risk would go

away and everything would be all right on the night, but to identify

the issues, come straight with the British people about them, and to

take steps to mitigate them. What brings those two approaches

together, the two big lessons of the last quarter-century, is

transparency. We don't just have a responsibility to the British people

to be fair and not pop up after a vote and

say, by the way, this is what we thought at the time. But we also

have a responsibility to explain risk and take steps. Because by

explaining them, by explaining what we would do to mitigate them, we

reduce them, and that is the key point. Ignoring a risk is not to

reduce it. If transparency is so important and presumably you discuss

all of this in the committee, why not publish the minutes? They are

kept secret for eight years. poetry we publish the minutes on

Thursday, they are detailed to the letter, detailed in the report.

Central banking has changed in the last 25 years. This is part of the

change. You will get, you are right, in eight years, the verbal

transcript of what is actually said, not 25 years... But they won't be

very different from the minutes we can see now. Absolutely not and I

hope to still be around, still be alive. You can crosscheck. All of

the analysis behind those judgments will also be published. Jacob

Rees-Mogg, a Tory MP, called on you to resign as a result of this. When

you saw the headlines and you saw the reaction, was there a moment

when you thought you had overstepped the mark? Absolutely not. Central

banks are independent in very specific areas for a reason. It is

precisely not to bend to political pressure from any side and to make

clear objective judgments and then explain them, and we have a duty. If

we are taking a judgment as a committee and changing policy

because of it. We are putting billions of pounds in liquidity

facilities, getting banks to raise capital against these types of

risks. If we are potentially going to alter the path of interest rates

because of certain things, we have a duty to explain that to the British

people and to Parliament. And can I go back to one of your earlier point

about daily avalanche, no, the bank's comments on these issues have

been in the context of testimony to the House of Lords, testimony to the

Commons committees, and inflation 's report and Associated Press

conferences around those reports. Turning to the actual state of the

economy, if you look at the OBR, one of the points they make is that

Britons have never been more overborrowed for longer than we are

now, I think ?58 billion of borrowing net by British households

at the moment, going up to ?68 billion by the end of the decade.

That must be a serious threat to the economy which is still not growing

very fast. We should look at the expansion as a whole. This has been

the strongest growing economy until recently in the G7. Secondly, in

terms of the borrowing position of British households, relative to

their incomes, British households have worked hard and pay down debts.

It has gone down from 160% of income down to 135%. That has now tailed

off. We are still quite heavily borrowed. This is based on a world

where we don't really have interest rates any more so presumably the

worry is that when you have to put interest rates back up again,

assuming we stay inside the EU, we could face a raft of repossessions,

people in terrible trouble as they were in the 1980s. Are we heading

towards something like that now because of overborrowing? I lived

here at that time and I remember it well. The levels of uncertainty then

are the same as the levels of uncertainty in the economy today. In

terms of borrowing and the ability to pay back, one of the things we

have done as the Bank of England is to say to banks and building

societies, when someone takes out a loan, test them against interest

rate where they could go three percentage points higher than where

they are today. The big increase in borrowing now has been for car

purchases and there have been much more lease contracts for cars. It is

without question something we are watching. If you have to put up

interest rates, we can talk about Brexit, if we leave the EU and the

pound falls and there is an inflationary pressure and you have

to put up interest rates, what happens to the overborrowed British

public? What history shows is that the British public pays their debts.

The challenge and the thing we are trying to manage to the medium term

is to ensure that not too many of the British public are overborrowed

because that will make the downturn that much more severe. We would take

a judgment, whether it is Remain, Leave, some other shop happens to

the economy, we will take a judgment about interest rates, taking into

account the borrowing position of households but also inflationary

pressures. They are in the horizon of to to three years. Can I be

clear, this is about a short-term shock, you are not trying to make

judgments about whether the British economy would be stronger or less

strong in or out of the EU. You are right, that's a judgment we are

capable of making but we will not make because it is not our mandate

to make. You used lots of code and woulds in your report. Similarly, if

we leave the EU and because of less regulation and new trade deals with

other countries we could be better off as an economy. You are trying to

get me to contradict what I just said which is to make a judgment

about the long-term prospects, which again is a judgment we are capable

of making but it is not in our mandate so we won't and I won't.

What we have to make a judgment about is that near term, two to

three years out. It is good, short, Ward, but there are number of

indicators that back those points. To be clear, what you fear happening

is the pound falling in value and as a result of that inflation, growth

slowing, and the possibility of a technical recession. People who

don't know what a technical recession is, it might not sound too

bad, what would it feel like? The technical definition of a technical

recession is just that, it is two quarters of flat or negative growth

so it doesn't necessarily have the broader connotations. What our

judgment is as a risk is that growth will be materially slower and

inflation notably higher in the event of a Leave. That means fewer

jobs, lower wages, businesses going out of business. It can have those

consequences. We need to make a judgment, and the key point to get

across in advance is to market and to others that you have conflicting

voices. You have upward pressure on inflation, you have downward

pressure potentially from people deferring some consumption or

investment because of uncertainty, and you also as a consequence of

that have less productivity in the economy for a period of time, in

part because of that lower investment. It is something we would

all notice of course. Yes. We know it in advance, we make it as clear

as possible in advance how we might react to that, and that gets more of

the work done and less of the surprise in markets and other

places. This is the difference between denial and transparency.

Your critics also say the bank has not been very good at forecasting

over the last period, you have said interest rate would go up and

employment would hit 7%. Just to be clear, we wouldn't even begin to

think about raising interest rates until unemployment got to 7% and

then we would take stock. The reason we said that as we felt there was

more supply capacity in the economy, it had more potential. We were

right. Let me make an important point, the big goals in terms of did

this economy have more supply and potential, absolutely. We get the

big calls right. You want to quibble about decimal places with the

strongest recovery in the G7? Is it possible we will see negative

interest rates in this country, paying the banks to hold our money?

It is highly unlikely. We have space for any eventuality in normal

interest rate policy. What we are focused on is returning to

normality. Rank you for joining us today.

Now over to Ben for the news headlines.

The Governor of the Bank of England has defended his decision

to intervene in the debate about the Uk's membership of the EU,

by warning that a vote to leave could cause a recession.

There have been calls for Mark Carney's resignation.

But he told this programme that he and the Bank

were 'absolutely independent' from politics:

The lesson must identify the issues, comes straight with the British

people about them, and take steps to mitigate them.

A leading campaigner for the UK to leave the EU said Mr Carney's

intervention was incredibly dangerous.

The Energy Minister, Andrea Leadsom, accused him of destabilising

financial markets with pure speculation and nonsense

The next news on BBC One is at one o'clock.

On the Sunday Politics in an hour, Andrew Neil will be talking

to the former Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith.

Join me again next week when Eddie Izzard will be

here to tell us how he's hoping to win young people over

And Game of Thrones star, Kit Harington, will be here too.

For now, we leave you with Teddy Thompson and Kelly Jones,

with a song from their new album - "Never Knew

# We've been friends for a long, long time

# Life is full of little windows that open now and then

# So I guess we are left to wonder what we might have been

# Life is full of little windows that open now and then

# So I guess we are left to wonder what we might have been

# Look and see if it's a better thing