12/06/2016 The Andrew Marr Show

people are celebrating the Queen's 90th birthday.

The Kingdom, meanwhile, has never been closer to leaving the EU.

11 days to go, and no-one - but no-one -

My guests this week: Prime Minister David Cameron,

on the edge of pulling off an audacious gamble

or presiding over a catastrophic misjudgment.

And Ukip's Nigel Farage, the rebel leader

close to dramatically changing the course of this country.

And on this very important weekend,

analysing the referendum news and much else,

including what's happening in America,

former Bush advisor and Republican commentator David Frum,

and from the TaxPayers' Alliance, Dia Chakravarty.

Now, we are not a programme that constantly blows its own trumpet,

so we've invited the very best here to do it for us.

Alison Balsom, who's not only a front-line musician herself,

but is encouraging all of us to go back to those musical instruments

we abandoned as children and get playing again.

But first, the news with Ben Thompson.

Europe's football governing body, Uefa,

says it'll investigate violent clashes in Marseille last night

at the end of England's 1-1 draw against Russia.

A group of Russians broke through a thin line of stewards

to throw punches and kicks and steal England flags.

It's the third day of attacks and skirmishes

in the French port city, as Simon Clemison reports.

The match is over, the violence left outside, or is it?

A white seating block is emptying, and here's why -

it appears Russian supporters were chasing the English

across the stand, a flare having been let off.

This kind of outbreak is highly unusual.

And yet security is meant to be ultra-tight,

raising big questions for the authorities.

they started to invade the England fans in the corner.

Of course, the English supporters ran, and they had nowhere to go.

I just saw a bunch of Russian fans running over to the England fans,

and all the England fans were running off

and jumping over the fence, it was awful.

So the operation on the streets of Marseille overnight

on the threat being posed by terrorists.

but no repeat of yesterday's ugly scenes,

when suddenly the clashes got much more serious.

Police say both sides were involved, along with the French.

But it is only small groups which are thought

to be causing problems, although the tournament

is only 24 hours old - these are the early stages.

This country desperately wants to focus on the football,

The Eiffel Tower paying tribute to a first appearance by Wales

David Cameron has warned that the UK economy would shrink

if the country votes to leave the European Union.

He said spending on health and pensions would suffer.

Former Conservative Cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith,

from the Leave campaign, described his warning as

a "vindictive and desperate attempt to bully and frighten pensioners."

Meanwhile, the Archbishop of Canterbury, Justin Welby,

has said he will vote for the UK to remain in the EU.

Celebrations continue for the Queen's 90th birthday weekend.

Today, Her Majesty will attend a huge street party

with 10,000 guests on the Mall for the Patron's Lunch.

It's a celebration of the Queen's patronage of charities

and organisations across the UK and the Commonwealth.

where guests will enjoy a picnic afternoon tea,

and there will be a procession of entertainers.

Within the last few minutes, reports coming in from Orlando, where it is

believed a gunman has taken hostages at a gay nightclub in the city.

There is a suggestion that a number of people have been shot at the

Pulse club. Photos and social media show dozens of emergency vehicles at

the scene. No official details of the incident have yet been given.

That's all from me, for now. Back to you, Andrew.

Now to the papers, and with me to review

the papers are David Frum, Helena Kennedy and Dia Chakrabarty.

A lot of politics, a lot of Europe, Justin Welby talking to the Mail on

Sunday, voting in, and a lot of the coverage is about David Cameron's

claim that Brexit may put pensions at risk or NHS ringfencing or you

name it! And there is the front of the Observer with England fans

rioting at the top. The Sunday Telegraph, PM's Brexit pensions

warning, and like many papers, pictures of the Royal Family on the

balcony. The Sunday Times has a different take, a leaked UK plan,

from diplomats, they say, to open the door to 1 million Turks,

diplomat in Ankara and advising that in order to stop Turkey leading in

millions and millions of refugees, they might have to let 1 million or

so Turks have special passports into the UK. We will talk to the Prime

Minister about that, and a slightly unsettling picture of Boris Johnson

wearing mascara and lipstick, part of Project Fear, I am sure you

agree! The Sunday express, panic grips Downing Street, they will say

gleefully. And the Sunday Mirror is spread between happy and inglorious.

You have chosen a big spread from the Observer. It is easy, and we

have got this on the front of the papers, this shameful behaviour on

the part of British fans, and yet at the same time it is a more

complicated story, because the level of brutality meted out by Russian

fans seems to be extraordinary, and they have gone with hand axis, with

weapons and so on. And so we are talking about something that really

is ugly, and it is kind of interesting that it is the bringing

together of the most an attractive end of the European family, I am

afraid, and it is actually about fascist elements operating here.

Most of the English fans were not doing that, and that easy thing

about in -- inglorious Britain, because this turned into something

truly different, because of the way in which gangs used this, and it is

partly about the old reputation still lingering. You know, the Brits

are up for a fight, but it turned incredibly ugly... Worrying that the

Russians were able to bring flares and fireworks and stuff and

gunpowder into a stadium weather is supposed to be incredibly strong

anti-terrorist security. It is one of the reasons why you have to have

close proximity between police forces working across borders in

order to deal with this stuff, but one of the ugly things was, hearing

some of the fans actually chanting about being rightly Brexiteers, that

is not going to win much friendship across Europe, if that is the face

of some of the argument. But I do think that here this is about

something else, and we shouldn't automatically reach for our

criticism of that. I think that we are talking about something else. A

very good spread in the Observer talking about how the Russian media

has boasted about the Russians coming out on top in this disgusting

display. Not very good. One of the problems of the referendum is that

we enjoy the rest of the world, and we should not ignore what is going

on in your country, particularly interesting. You have a Hillary

Clinton story from the internet. ABC News. How is it that Hillary

Clinton, quite popular here, I understand, has had so much trouble

putting away an unfunny Larry David imitated inside her party? Bernie

Sanders. And finds a sub running close to Donald Trump, who strikes

many people as completely implausible as a candidate. -- finds

herself. Many Americans regarded as people and self-seeking, and this is

a new story that give some perspective that

explains why... This man had given huge amount of money first to the

Clinton campaign and the Clinton Foundation, getting close to the

security system, and he is a Clinton super delegate as well. New e-mails

have surfaced that this was personally directed by Hillary

Clinton's chief of staff, who directed that they be stalled, and

that is her own e-mail address. You are a Republican, you have been a

Republican commentator for a very long time, so would you prefer to

see Donald Trump Peter Lawrie Clinton or not? My preferences get

in a way of pointing out what is important here. This is why it is so

hard for her. This is a big negative for her. When she made her

announcement address, she said, many of you think I am in this for

myself, and you address that because you know it is a widespread feeling.

It is a good story to explain what is the anchor weighing down the

Clinton campaign. I'm sorry, but this is something you are going to

hear more and more from a panicked Republican Party, who really cannot

stand the idea that Hillary Clinton is going to end up in the White

House, even when they are saddled with Trump. It is so one fair,

because this man has great technical skill... He is a commodity trader.

He has got considerable technical skill, and that is what they are

talking about. Let's now moved to own controversies, the story about

the Prime Minister's warnings about pensions being cut. Yes, this adds

on to a number of stories that have come out of the Remain side lately,

talking about how disastrous it is going to be the us if we leave the

EU. This is another example, and we have heard this will be taken away

from you, that will be taken away from you. This is now particularly

looking at pensioners, we know this is a group that votes more than a

lot of other groups, so it is important for David Cameron. The

Tories have done this in the past, they have a way of keeping the

pensioners sweet, to get that vote out. This is an extension of it.

This is based on the IFS warning of a ?20 billion black hole, so

difficult decisions will have to be taken. You are a Brexit support

yourself. I certainly am, although the TaxPayers' Alliance does not

take a view on this. These are all... Economics is speculative on

both sides, these are all predictions, and economists to get

them wrong. I do not blame them for getting them wrong, these are hard

predictions to get right. What I blame them for is claiming that this

is infallible, which it is not. Here we have a situation where David

Cameron seems to be saying, if it happens that we have an economic

disaster, we cannot be sure that we can protect you pensioners from what

comes from it. But again, that is speculative. It is a bed thing to

say, in a sense, it is about likelihoods and percentages. But why

isn't it also a question of priorities for David Cameron? If he

thinks that their benefits should remain, you know, he will still be

in the Government, or some form of it, the Conservative Party

presumably will still be in government. If they want this

election on that mandate, why can't they say that this is something we

will protect, if they think it is what they want to do? This is the

problem for those who want to leave Europe, you do not have any serious

economists on your side. All the big international economic bodies are

saying, this is not a good idea, and you say it is speculative - it is

not, it has all been modelled and block that with great care. It is

still all speculative, and as you well know, this is essentially a

debate between... We have said this before, but this is the case, even

Andrew Mitchell, part of the Remain campaign... Is this the BBC trying

to be fair? You have had a fair amount of time too. I want to move

to the Labour side of the argument, however, which is that it does seem

the Labour Party is losing votes to Ukip in the North in particular, and

your message has not got through to traditional voters. It is something

the Labour Party has to be really worried about, and in many places,

where in fact there are not even immigrants, people appearing the

idea that the future of their children will be affected by

immigration, and where there are very few people from anywhere else

in Europe or abroad. But the point about it is that a rather nasty

campaign has caught the public attention, so that people think that

their ills are about immigration, rather than being about a government

that has made choices on austerity which has greatly affected the

family lives of people that are not well off. I think that, if people

that upset about migration, maybe we should to them. You misunderstand

your problem, maybe it would be respectful to say, I hear it. You

have ugly politics being run up the flagpole, that is happening in your

country too, but we really have to hone in on... Let me bring you a

warning from America, which is if you have a legitimate concern, and

responsible people do not address it, you get Donald Trump - don't

wait for Donald Trump to address your migration problems.

Let's move to the David Cameron interview. I'm a great admirer of

David Cameron. He has been the right man for the time. One thing that has

been painful is watching the conservative coalition be smashed,

not just by the vote but by the way it has been handled. You hear is

talking about the vote, Nigel Farage supporters will feel it is a lot

broader to returning to the coalition. That it is a locked door.

Migration is a massive issue. Angela Merkel's message, unbelievably

irresponsible, is one of the drivers in shattering confidence in the

European Union. The Mac are you a Brexit supporter? America has always

wanted to see Europe to be a stronger, more reliable friend.

Obviously, British people will have this integrity of British democracy

close. The Mac I want to see one more thing... Please don't. We need

to review the papers as well. There is an interview with Boris Johnson.

This is quite an interesting interview with Boris Johnson. They

put questions like, you're part of the establishment as well, having

been to Eton and Oxford. Let's not forget on the other side they are

also part of that. Why is it establishment? What was interesting

is when asked whether he regrets saying anything in the past, he gave

quite a candid answer, he says, I don't, I'm trying to tell it exactly

as I see it. People know that I sometimes say things that can be

misconstrued but I need to be as painful to what I think as I

possibly can, that has got me into trouble and also got me out of it. I

thought that was quite candid. The cause we all laugh at him, and think

he says things that are not scripted, but that is who years. --

who he is. The last story. I think we've had a major intervention by

Justin Welby, you says Brexit will hit the economy, we should know

that, the EU needs reform, the referendum is about so much more, it

is a vote for peace, stability and the values we fought for in two

world wars. He is talking about bridge building, and we should be

going back to the principles behind this. Thank you all very much.

And so to the weather, I've been very lucky this week,

Glasgow was like Barcelona on a good day.

as the muggy South has endured thunderplump after thunderplump.

So what can we expect this week? Here's Tomasz Schafernaker.

I'm being told what schadenfreude means! I tell you what, the weather

is all over the place. Not just today but tomorrow, Tuesday,

Wednesday, quite possibly Thursday and Friday. It is a mishmash. You

can see heavy showers across northern areas, the South as well.

The best advice is, if you are out for any lengthy period of time, take

your on Brad. -- on Brad R. There will be more rain around, it

will be another marquee, close mate. 14 degrees in London. Once again,

more of the same tomorrow. Sunshine and showers through the course of

the day. Temperatures may get up to 20 degrees. The week ahead, more

showers, coastal areas could enjoy some sun.

Chairman Mao began his long march to power in Jiangxi Province.

it was an agreeable saloon bar somewhere in Kent.

But for him too, it's been an astonishing journey.

Dismissed and ridiculed for years, he is perhaps the man

most responsible for taking us so close

I say you are responsible, partly because I presume David Cameron help

the referendum to scupper you. It was to shoot the Ukip Fox. The

perception was it was Tory votes, but ironically we probably had

Labour more. He went into the election promising a referendum, he

got a majority, he spent much of last year saying Britain could do

fine outside the European Union and he would not rule anything out in

terms of which way he would vote, now it's a daily Prophet of doom as

to what would happen to our pensioners and everybody else. Which

is the real David Cameron? On Friday, when the markets closed, the

Footsie was down 100 points, nearly ?40 billion was wiped off. It is a

fact and these are not Europhile scaremongers, these are hard-nosed

people trying to praise the risk of Brexit. I worked in this free 20

years. Sterling is up since March. What happened on Friday was very bad

economic figures from America and the fact that the growth forecast

was downgraded and borrowing is still out of control. These are

ludicrous scare stories being put up. Even if sterling were to fall

after Brexit, so what? We have a floating currency and it would be

good for exports. I will tell you so what. I bumped into our man in the

park and he said, all my friends and family are voting to leave but I

cannot because I have investments and pensions and I'm really worried

about what is going to happen. He looks at the forecasts and that is

why he's worried. I understand that these relentless scare tactics, some

people are being scared. Let me say this, the IFF is, this great

independent god of economic forecasting is funded mostly by the

British government and over 10% of their income comes from the European

Union. You're not saying they are a corrupt organisation. I am seeing

75% of their funding comes from the British government and the EU. You

are saying we should not trust what they say? I'm saying if you work for

the government and the EU and you ask to produce a report, you don't

bite the hand that feeds you. That is a very serious allegation against

people regarded as gold standard advisers. Well at the start you said

was it in a saloon bar in Kent, actually it was London. I said

London as well. All the experts said it would be good for Britain to join

this and I thought it would not, the experts said if we did not join the

euro it would be doomed. Investment would dry up. The central point is,

everything the Prime Minister and George Osborne says is predicated on

the idea that we are part of something that is good for the

British economy, and the answer is, for tariff free access to the

European market, we need to pay a net membership fee of ?34 million a

day, accept regulation on the 84% of our economy that is not exports to

European countries, and we have to accept... But surely the single

market has been useful for British... The common market was

good for us, it gave us a bigger market. The single market is

actually inhibiting us in a world, we live in a global economy and

nobody talks about this, we put up trade barriers against countries all

over the world as part of the EU and my answer is this, we are not

leaving Europe, we are divorcing ourselves from feeling political

union so we can re-engage with the world. If we vote to leave them a

lot depends on the kind of negotiation that follows and you say

it will be up and nine negotiation, they will not cut off their noses to

spite their faces but I say that is unlikely. You want to see the end of

the EU and this to be the solution and collapse of the EU structures.

The people we will be negotiating with will be very angry and not want

to negotiate in a friendly way. I tell you who is angry, the people of

Europe, they said they did not vote for this, they finished up with a

currency that has made beggars of the South, a migrant policy

tailoring countries apart. There is a tariff free area that extends from

Iceland to Turkey. That exist. We are eurozone's biggest market. There

are elections coming up next year in France and Germany. This will take a

long time, beyond those negotiations. The most powerful

lobby in the whole of Europe is the German car industry. They need this

market very badly. Even if things did go wrong, let us just assume,

and Angela Merkel is happy to see hundreds of thousands of German car

workers laid off. Even in that scenario, the benefit we join for is

outweighed by the net membership fee alone. The worst-case scenario,

economic way, is better than where we are today and gives us the chance

to start thinking globally. For the last 70 years we've had peace in

Europe, we've had a much longer history where every time there has

been trouble in Europe we've had to get involved and spend our blood and

our treasure. Are you absolutely sure that the collapse of the EU is

not going to be angry, difficult, divisive and cause more problems? If

we had been part of a greater Europe we would not have been able to

intervene in the last two Mac wars. That is a debating point. Look at

Europe's role in the break-up of Yugoslavia. Look at Greece. Look at

the rise of the extreme politics of the extreme right and the extreme

left. This is not a happy Europe. The answer for peace, firstly, Nato

is an example of countries cooperating together. Provided

Europe is democratic, it will never go to war. Let's talk about

immigration, you told Andrew Neal you wanted to return to the old norm

of immigration in the 1950s. That was 30,000 a year. Is that a fair

folk of Western Mark -- they figure? Absolutely. Net migration is 180

8000. So you want a serious cut. This government is not handling

immigration from outside the EU well. The fact that 20,000 illegal

immigrants were given permanent leave to Remain, is it any wonder

boat was found off Hastings with people in it? The government has

failed on the staff and on the EU stuff we have no control at all.

This Prime Minister promised the British people he would bring it

down to tens of thousands, knowing we have an open door. You are not

the kind of guy who wants to stop family reunions so that would carry

on? Provided they are legitimate and we know that we are doing properly.

They were running at 40 3000. You want to get it down to 40,000. You

cannot let anybody else in. Let's be clear, getting back to a norm that

starts to relieve the pressure, I mean, people cannot get GP

appointments, people cannot get their kids on the housing ladder. It

needs a government led by people and it needs us to stop the open door to

500 million people across the EU. Let's put that to one side and think

afterwards nobody from the EU tries to come here. You still got 188,000,

43,000 with Family Reunion, the numbers simply do not add up. We

will have a tougher immigration policy and I think everyone knows

that when it comes to Family Reunion, the boundaries have been

stretched. You said you wanted quality migrants, and you said, we

don't want Albanian murderers and people with HIV. Is that your view?

I want this country to be a normal country. Normal countries all over

the world don't allow criminals to settle in their country, don't allow

people to come into the country who would be a huge burden on the health

service. Would you include things like to brag your losses and other

difficult diseases? -- tuberculous. Let's be clear. We have a national

health system at breaking point, literally at breaking point, many

will tell you that, because things are serious, it is a National Health

Service, not an international health service. How do you know people have

got HIV when they come in? If you go to Australia you need to prove

things. You are getting into specific details and looking for a

big headline. What I'm saying is, the way Australia does it is simple,

you've got to be under 45, have a trade or skill, have some money,

bring your own health insurance. Doesn't that sound sensible?

Balsom what about all those British businesses, care homes, hospitals,

restaurants, coffee shops, who rely at the moment on not very

? Do they go under? Of the new jobs that were created in the UK last

year, over 70% of them went to people who are not British. There

are 1.7 million Brits who are not employed at the moment, maybe they

are all lazy, but I don't think so. I think what is happening is that

big companies are choosing foreign labour over British labour. Going

back to the HIV thing, you didn't really answer my question, whether

you still think that people with HIV should not be allowed into this

country? Yes or no? To get free health care? We do not know why they

are coming in, they come in for all sorts of reasons, do you keep them

out? I am sorry, you are trying to get me... Should we say to people,

from all over the world, if you have got a very serious disease, we are

very happy for the National Health Service to provide whatever health

care you want, at the same time as it now takes people all over Britain

a fortnight to get a GP appointment? It is about priorities, isn't it?

And my priority would be to put our own people first - it is about time

we did. Final question, we are very close to the referendum, very close

to the result, and the two camps seem very close indeed. Many but you

ahead at the moment. If in the end you lose 51-49, is it over? Well,

let's remember one thing. The vast majority of our political us want to

stay part of the European Union, many regret the Prime Minister's

decision to give us a referendum. If the Leave side was too narrowly

lose, the chances of parliament giving us another referendum in the

short-term is probably pretty slim. So I do view this as the one

opportunity, and you know, there is nothing radical about this. All we

want to do is take back control of our lives and put power back in the

hands of the British people. An awful lot of people will very angry

if the Remain campaign win by a sliver and they think it has been an

unfair campaign. Could you see problems on the streets if that

happens? I have not mentioned violence, there might be violence

inside the Conservative Party, that is certainly true. A lot of his own

MPs think that he has used taxpayers' money wrong way and is

not running a full, free and fair election campaign. I do not expect

violence from the people of this country, I expect profound

disappointment. There has been a change in this debate. People have

had enough of being threatened by the Prime Minister and the

Chancellor, and I think, collectively, people are beginning

to put two pinger is up to the political class. They may very well

be, Nigel Farage, thank you for joining us.

The Prime Minister will be joining me shortly.

is that he once played the drums at school.

But like many amateur musicians, he gave up after a while,

perhaps mercifully, if you ask Mrs Cameron.

Well, a new initiative called BBC Get Playing is aimed

at encouraging lapsed musicians to take up their old instruments again.

Earlier, the trumpeter Alison Balsom,

one of the world-class musicians who's backing the season,

I think it's a fabulous initiative, because so many people,

I've met thousands of people who've said, "I used to play this

instrument or that instrument, and I gave up and I regret it."

And the thing that I just want to say all the time,

over and over again, is that playing music

We know that, it's been proven in so many ways.

Good for the brain, good for the lungs, good for everything.

Absolutely, for the trumpet, absolutely, good for the lungs.

But it's also good for the community.

So I guess, there are lots and lots of people who have a dusty violin,

a kind of old oboe or a clarinet they picked up a few

So you can talk to them right now, what's your message to them?

The message is, go and look in the loft, go and look

for an instrument, look for the instrument

you've always wanted to play, or that you used to play,

The BBC has lots of information on how you can play music that

they've provided and even join in with the virtual orchestra

It's a very exciting time for you, you've got a big concert

at the Albert Hall, you've got a new album out,

and you've just got your OBE, so congratulations to you for that.

Tell us a little bit about the album.

So the album that has just come out is the trumpet and piano repertoire,

it's a live concert, because I love to just record a live concert.

There's not a lot, but what we've chosen is all my favourites

from the repertoire, and it's like going to a concert,

Actually, today I'm just off to finish recording

my Christmas album. Christmas album already?!

And you are playing some Bach for us at the end.

Alison, thank you so much indeed for coming in.

And Alison Balsom will play us out later,

but first I'm joined by the Prime Minister, David Cameron.

Welcome, Prime Minister. Some pretty bloodcurdling warnings this morning

for pensioners, the NHS and the armed services, people will say this

is yet more project Fear, yet more scaremongering. Well, what it is is

saying that if we vote to leave the European Union and the single

market, that will have economic consequences. Of course, there are

experts, the Governor of the Bank of England, the IMF, the IFS, all

saying the economy would be smaller and we would have less money to

spend on public services, but I also think there is a deep piece of

common sense, and I want to take a moment to set it out. In the single

market, we get free access to 500 million consumers, crucial for our

economy, where almost half of what we sell goes. If we have less good

access, which we would if we left, it would impact on the economy, on

car-makers, aeroplane makers, the seven industries. We look behind us

at the enormous industry on the wall, the London financial centre.

If we restrict access, we will be less well off, and that affects what

we can spend on public services. There is no saving from leaving the

EU, there is a cost, and my message is clear - do not risk it. These

things, ringfencing the NHS, spending an up on defence, these are

political choices. You could equally say that you would raise taxes or

borrowing. That is true, of course. If, as the IFS, frequent and

trenchant critics of the Government, they say there would be a ?20- 40

billion black hole, and you could meet that by putting up taxes on

hard-working people, or by going back to borrowing more and putting

the economy at risk. Or it could be cut in things like pensions or

health. And we do not have to vote for that, we do not have to risk it.

We can take the better choice, and I think it is worth stopping for a

moment and thinking, how will we feel on the 24th of June? If we vote

in, there will be a wall of investment, companies responsible

for making things in this country will want to employ more, make more.

We will have a strong and bright future inside a reformed European

Union. If we vote out, it is a decade of uncertainty. You have

chosen this morning to one pensioners in particular that they

will lose the triple lock. This is what Iain Duncan Smith has said,

what we now have is a Vindicat bands desperate attempt to bully and

frighten the British people, particularly pensioners. -- a

vindictive and desperate. The Conservative Party said that

protecting pensioners was a priority, but it is now apparent

that there is not do to use or jettison NFF it's to get as to stay

in the EU. -- in their efforts to get us to stay in the EU. Of course,

it is a priority, but if we did face a black hole like that in our public

finances, we would have to make difficult choices, and our pensions

promise is based on a growing and succeeding economy, and all of the

experts, and I agree with them, and most in business agree, if we cut

ourselves off from the most important market, the economy will

be smaller, and that has consequences. We will be taking a

risk with jobs and growth, and we should not do that. Risks that other

clubs because you called the referendum in the first place. Just

because it is right to hold the referendum does not mean that you

should not be clear about the potential consequences. Nigel Farage

was just saying if the pound falls, so what? Briefly, he thought it

would go back up again. If the pound falls, that means the prices in our

shops go up, the weekly shop costs people more, the family holiday

costs more. Outside the single market, airfares will cost more.

These are all risks we should avoid, we should not risk it. The challenge

to you is that this is scaremongering, you have been

quoting the IFS all morning. They say, if we turned out to take a ?40

billion hit to public finances, it would be a smaller hit than the

effect of the 2008 recession, below the downgrades to the forecast made

by the OBR between 2012 and 2013, and we have coped with those. The

Treasury themselves forecast that if we leave, the recession will be the

shallowest since 1956. It is not Armageddon. Who wants to vote for a

shallow recession? The 2008 recession was the worst since the

war. This would be the first one that was self-inflicted, and that is

what the Bank of England and the IFS and the Treasury and others think.

But the roof does not come down. I know what it is like, as Prime

Minister, trying to fill in a black hole, trying to deal with the

aftermath of recession, trying to get people back to work, meant the

public finances, making decisions which many people watching will not

have agreed with, because they were tough and difficult. I don't want us

to have to make any more of those decisions, and if we vote to stay

in, we don't have to. If we vote to come out, we are putting ourselves

deliberately in a less good position in a key market. People believe that

you are overstating the case, and if you look at the audience in the ITV

debate, they were not listening to you, and the reason that they were

not listening is because the warnings have been too extreme, too

specific, all that stuff about house prices falling by 18% and so forth,

coming from the Treasury, which cannot forecast very much ahead.

They are no longer listening, they do not believe you. I took except

that people are confused by having so many statistics, and that there

is a lot of frustration because of that, but I think it is actually my

job as Prime Minister, when you have got independent forecasts, from the

Governor of the Bank of England, whose job it is to warn of risks to

the economy, from the IMF, who warns governments when they face risks, it

is my job to talk about that. It would be very irresponsible not to

do so. But those numbers are basically made up, that is the

problem. Well, I don't acceptable stop Steve Hilton, your former

adviser, says, they are made up, I know because I used to do that

stuff. Except for the IFS that is not eventually cause, I cannot do

that with the Bank of England either. -- that is not then Trillick

was. For people who find the barrage of statistics confusing, although

they are coming from independent bodies, there is such an obvious

common-sense and logical point, which is our car makers, financial

services businesses, our insurers, they want us to stay in the biggest

single market in the world because they see immense opportunity. We

should be taking that market and driving the trade deals with China,

whose economy we are bigger than as part of the single market, driving

deals with America, who we are bigger than as part of the single

market, and there are huge and sides, particularly for young

people, but there are risks, and we should not risk it. I am suggesting

that the tone has been got badly wrong, people are not listening, two

thirds do not think they personally will be worse off at the Brexit. It

is beginning to sound a bit as if your campaign is vote to stay or the

puppy gets it. I do not accept that. There is a hugely optimistic and

positive campaign, our slogan is about positivity. That is why we

will be talking about the opportunities for young people, the

strength that Britain has, and I have seen this over six years as

Prime Minister. If I want to help tackle problems, stopping migration

from the eastern Mediterranean, trying to clear up Ebola in West

Africa, fight climate change, stand up for British interests in the

world, you do not diminish your country by being part of the EU.

There is a strong, bold, patriotic case for staying in this

organisation. And another point that has not come out, if we wake up and

we are in, Britain's authority within the EU will be stronger. No

other country has done what we have done, hold a renegotiation and a

referendum, and people will know that fighting extremism and

terrorism, jobs, that is all go into the top of the agenda, and we will

be pushing that in Europe and elsewhere. Some people say there is

a choice between being in Europe and going global, but that is nonsense.

By being in the single market and having economic strength, we have

the ability to have global reach as well.

When John Major was sitting in that chair he said the NHS would not be

safe in the hands of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Iain Duncan Smith.

Would you agree with him? I thought he made a very powerful case for why

we should stay in the European Union. Do you agree with him? I am

not going to talk personalities. Are you going to get Amber Rudd to do it

for you? I am simply going to talk about the facts and Biagi mince

which I think there are enough to get into. -- the arguments. If we

vote to leave there will be changes in the Conservative Party and those

on the Leave side will be enhanced. You have said you will stay on as

Prime Minister and carry-out the British people's wishes. That is a

rather indistinct thing, the wishes of the British people. Does the

manifesto of the Tory Leave side signify, would you bring in an

Australian points system, send that money to the NHS? Obviously, if we

vote to leave, with the consequence of that would have, and a DIY

recession, that has consequences which would be very difficult for

the government to deal with but difficult for British families. I

worry about British people losing their jobs. The question is, if we

vote to leave will be carry-out the instructions, yes, will I carry on,

yes, well I construct a government that includes all the talents of the

Conservative Party, yes. Do I think it is the best thing for the

country, I do not. So you would be introducing an Australian style

points system you do not believe in? Would you be taking us out of the

single market? There is room to negotiate that. One of the most

important moments was when the boat campaign said they wanted to leave

the single market. -- when the Leave campaign. They did not need to make

that choice. The British public would be voting to leave the single

market. We would then need to negotiate a trade deal from outside.

Canada is in the process of doing that and it has taken seven years.

There is a risk of a lost decade for Britain. Leaving the EU you've got

to negotiate the accident, it took Greenland three years, you've got to

negotiate a trade deal, it has taken Canada seven years and counting.

Then you've got to negotiate trade deals with the 50 other countries

covered by this deal. It would suck the energy out of our government,

whilst we should be taking on the world and winning, we would be stuck

renegotiating these things for a very long time. All the while we

would have an economy that was less well off. You have said leaving the

single market would put a bomb under the British economy and yet you are

in the position of seeing, I will detonate the bomb. I must accept the

instructions of the British people. But if we leave the EU, and the

German finance minister was very clear, you are either in or out,

we've then got to negotiate a trade deal. It is worth stopping and

thinking, who has got what sort of trade deal? They will never give us

a better deal on the outside than on the inside. You could do a deal that

gave us access to the market. You could do that. Believe campaign have

specifically rejected that option. The reason is, if you go for the

Norway solution, you still pay into the EU and access free movement.

This is why I think it is so positive on the Remain side. We have

a seat at the table to determine the rules. For Britain, the idea that we

should aggregate that responsibility and have our year pressed to the

glass, trying to find out what 27 countries are doing to affect our

future, that would be an abdication of responsibility. Norway are not

doing too bad. Yes, but the Norwegians say, if you want to be

run by Europe, we take dictation about what the rules are. It is not

the ordinary Norwegian people, who are doing pretty well. They have as

much oil as Das and only 4 million people. Think of the car industry,

they want as negotiating the rules for the electric cars of the future,

I want them to be built in Britain. Let us move to the issue your site

have most trouble with, immigration. The promise to bring it down to tens

of thousands was your biggest single political mistake. It is a challenge

to control immigration, when you're economy is growing as well as ours

did, we've had a five-year period where we created more jobs than the

rest of the EU put together. As recently as 2008, the number of

people leaving and coming in was balanced. As the euro zone countries

are recovering, the idea that we are shackled to a corpse is nonsense.

Being in the EU means we have no control at all over immigration from

the rest of the EU, it is untrue that we can control over all

immigration if we stay in, that is Paul Johnson of the IFS. That does

not take into account what we get if we stay, so that if someone comes to

work in Britain. If someone comes to work they get no unemployment

benefit. If they don't get a job they will be asked to leave and if

they do they need to work, paying into the system before they get

access to the welfare system. Some are able to get money in benefits. I

think that is a good way of controlling immigration. I think

leaving the single market is a massive mistake for our economy and

country. I don't think you solve that by seeing unemployment going

up, tax revenues coming down, cuts to public services. Those are risks

we should not take. If there is a voter watching this thinking, what I

care about is controlling immigration, what way should they

vote? Fought to stay in the EU because we have complete control. --

thought to stay -- vote. If people come here then they need to work or

support themselves and they need to pay in before they get out. That was

one of the biggest complaints people had, that we had a something for

nothing system that we have changed through this negotiation. People can

vote to stay in a reformed Europe. How much will that cut? Clearly if

you take away ?10,000 of benefits that has an effect. Nigel Farage has

raised the issue of Turkey. At the moment it is the British

Government's policy for Turkey to join the EU and we are spending

money to help that happen. If you change that policy, you could end

that part of the argument here and now. This is a red herring, there is

no prospect of Turkey joining the EU in decades. You cannot find one

expert that thinks it is going to happen because it is not going to

happen. They've opened one chapter of 35 they have to open even though

this started in 1987. At the current rate of progress they will get there

in the year 3000. It is a red herring and they know that. They've

admitted to it and they should stop frightening people. A lot of people

say they don't believe the establishment. They will find a way

of Turkey getting in if it is in their interests. Could you at least

say that we will have another referendum if Turkey is getting in?

Every country has a veto. Would you use it? Me saying that makes it

sound like it is going to happen, it is not going to happen, it is

decades away, this is not going to happen. Let me ask you about

something else. 20 police forces are investigating Conservatives election

expenses. This is a growing story. Did you authorise the paying of a

very expensive QC to go to police to stop them making this investigation?

This is looking like a cover-up. This is handled by the party

chairman and I am confident what we did was right. Did you send a QC to

stop the investigation? What happened was we, like many parties,

had a national battle bus that went two constituencies, and in our view,

it is national expenses. I think that the rate approach. The party

chairman is handling it. My final question, are you on the edge of

losing? I think, nobody knows what these polls are saying, we are in

the middle of an absolutely vital debate for the future of our country

and I want us to be stronger, safer, better off, and I don't want us to

take the risks with our economy, with futures, with recession. It is

agonisingly close. It feels like a very lively debate but I'm confident

we have the strongest, most positive case. I think we can be greater if

we stay end. There will be sweet music, but first, a flavour of what

is coming up after this programme. Join us from Brunel University

London at ten, where we'll be asking

just one big question. We've gathered environmentalists,

escgatologists, economists, writers,

people from many faiths, Join me at the same time next Sunday

here on BBC One when my guests Andrew Neil will be here

with the Sunday Politics in an hour with reaction to what

the Prime Minister and But for now, as promised, we leave

you with Alison Balsom - and Bach. This is the Badinerie from the

Orchestral Suite Number Two.