26/11/2017 The Andrew Marr Show


26/11/2017

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Transcript


LineFromTo

Good morning.

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There's a long tradition

about the days after the Budget.

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Bit by bit, it unravels,

and an ashen-faced Chancellor has

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to scrabble around apologising

for his mistakes.

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But not this year.

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Philip Hammond has been warmly

applauded by the Tory party -

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even the Daily Mail withdrew

its claim that he was

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Britain's Eeyore.

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But, those forecasts -

basically that we're all going to be

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poorer for much longer

than we thought - show

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there might be trouble ahead.

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Bad for Britain, but in pure

electoral terms, perhaps,

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a huge opportunity for

Jeremy Corbyn's Labour.

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I'm joined this morning

by the woman many Tories see

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as their future Prime Minister -

the Leader of the Scottish

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Conservatives, Ruth Davidson.

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And by a key member of Labour's

economic team, Barry Gardiner,

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on Labour's vision for the economy.

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Keeping an eye on both of them,

the grand wizard of the numbers,

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Paul Johnson of the Institute

for Fiscal Studies.

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And remember this?

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I've still got the pieces.

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So I'm not going to wear a dog

collar until Mugabe has gone.

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But now Mugabe's gone,

will the Archbishop

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put his collar back on?

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And a message to the UK from ABBA.

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Benny Andersson has got this

to say about Brexit.

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We need you in there. Because it's

like, you have a friend, and he

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says, we don't want to be friends

with you any more. Stay.

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I'll be talking

to him and Sir Tim Rice

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about their Cold War musical,

"Chess".

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Plus, we'll have a fantastic tune

from three other musical

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greats: Jools Holland,

Jose Feliciano and Ruby Turner.

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# Hey Ray...

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And reviewing the papers -

the former Tory adviser and head

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of media for the Vote Leave

campaign, Robert Oxley; the writer

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and commentator Ellie Mae O'Hagan,

and the political editor

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of the Financial Times,

George Parker.

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But first, the news

with Tina Daheley.

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Good morning.

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Ireland's European Commissioner has

urged the UK not to leave the single

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market and customs union.

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Phil Hogan has told The Observer

that it would be the best way

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to avoid stringent border controls

between Northern Ireland

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and the Republic.

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Theresa May hopes the EU will agree

to move the Brexit talks onto trade

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at next month's summit.

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But Mr Hogan warns Ireland

will use its veto to stop progress

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if it is not satisfied.

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People who fly drones will be

required to take safety awareness

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tests as part of a government

clamp-down on rogue operators.

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Owners will be banned

from flying them near airports,

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while the police will be given

new powers to seize the machines.

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They are part of plans

to crack down on criminal

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and unsafe use of drones -

which have been used

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for smuggling, and involved

in near-misses with aeroplanes.

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There's concern that a volcano

on the Indonesian island of Bali

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may be about to erupt.

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Mount Agung last errupted in 1963.

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Around 25,000 people have been

evacuated since volcanic activity

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was first seen in September.

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Some flights have been cancelled,

and an airport on the neighbouring

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island of Lombok has been closed.

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Military history will be made

at Buckingham Palace this morning,

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when sailors from the Royal Navy

take part in the changing of

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the guard for the very first time.

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More than 80 sailors have been

taught the intricate routines

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and drill movements required

for the duty,

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which is usually carried out

by the Army's Household Division.

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That's all from me.

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The next news on BBC One is at 1.00.

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Back to you, Andrew.

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Thank you.

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Now to the papers.

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The one story that is really taking

focused this morning is the Irish

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border. The Observer has it there,

with the Irish Commissioner warning

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Theresa May to change course or risk

Brexit chaos. We only have to weeks

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to sort this out. There is the

Sunday town -- the Sunday Times with

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a very sad story there. We see

Meghan Markle on almost every front

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page, her and Harry. That is

Victoria Beckham there. A big EU

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story, and lots of Brexit coverage

this morning. On the other side of

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the Irish story, a fairly withering

comment from the DUP, saying that

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they will not put up with having no

border at all. In the Mail on Sunday

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there, quite a complicated story

about an alleged link between

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Brexiteers and Russia and so forth,

but you have to follow quite a lot

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of dots to work it out. There is

Meghan Markle again. The press is

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already gearing up for some kind of

wedding announcement shortly. We

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will not be talking very much about

that, I suspect. We will start

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talking about the Irish border story

and the Observer front-page.

This

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continued anti-Brexit coverage has

splashed the idea that Ireland's EU

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Commissioner thinks that the only

way Northern Ireland can stay in the

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customs union or the single

market... The DUP do not think that

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is right. They do not want to see

the UK and Northern Ireland

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separated off. The EU Commissioner

pronouncing on a UK issue, I think

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that is one of the reasons people

voted to leave. Also this

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interference back into the UK

domestic scene, and potentially

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making some significant

constitutional changes to the

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relationship between Northern

Ireland and the Republic of Ireland

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is not the sort of thing that should

be happening in this way. It is

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interesting that we have got to one

of the bigger issues of Brexit.

We

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didn't hear much of this in the

campaign.

In the Vote Leave

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campaign, we set out what people

didn't like in the European Union.

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They didn't like that it was too

controlling. That is what people

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said. I think this story Pulis it's

one of the things the British people

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didn't like.

Anything that separates

Northern Ireland from the rest of

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the United Kingdom, economically or

politically, is something that we

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could not bear. So there is

something... A big choice now. Does

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Northern Ireland stay in side the

customs union, or if not, if they

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stay in the rest of the UK, there is

going to have to be some kind of

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border? That is in excess ten shall

choice, not just for Ireland.

There

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are going to have to be third way is

coming through these decisions. What

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you have here is possibly one of the

more interesting issues, getting

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away from the bill that has

dominated our coverage so far. The

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public voted to take back control

and they wanted these decisions to

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be taken. Ireland could be playing

with fire here if they decide to up

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the ante. If there is a Brexit that

cuts the UK off, Ireland have the

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most use from it. I don't think that

will happen. I think common sense

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prevail.

Three of the most

articulate advocates of Brexit were

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newspaper columnists, like Michael

Gove and Boris Johnson. Now we are

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talking about what is in the next

1000 words.

There are too many

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journalists getting into politics,

is that it?

This is the Irish side

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of the same story. The same

relations between Dublin and London,

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saying they have not been so

strained for years. Talking about

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the terrible relationship between

the Irish Taoiseach and Theresa May.

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He quotes a former Conservative

minister. What the hell does your

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government think it's doing? That is

the point Rob was making. If these

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talks break down, you end up with no

deal, and a very hard border in

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deep.

Very serious stuff. We are

sitting here after the budget, and

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the immediate aftermath was quite

good for the Chancellor. But there's

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a lot of trouble ahead. You picked a

story from the Sunday Mirror about

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the NHS.

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Yes. Philip Hammond gave £4 billion

to the banks, but only £2.8 billion

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to the NHS, and the reason I picked

this out is because this plays to

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what a lot of people in the country

think at the moment, that we have a

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government interested in looking

after the interests of the rich and

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not ordinarily people. There's been

a few successful days of press

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coverage, better than the calamitous

headlines the Tories have been

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getting lately, anyway, but actually

it's starting to unravel, and I

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agree with what you said in the

introduction, which is that the

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long-term ramifications of this

budget, the OBR figures... If Labour

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can capitalise on that, it will pay

offer them electorally. That is and

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if, though, and not inevitable. I

don't think the IS figures on

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stagnating wages, missing the

deficit target, terrible growth

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figures, these are the things that

will determine politics in the next

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few years.

These forecasts. We don't

know what is going to happen. In the

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Sunday Times, lots of knives flying

towards the Chancellor, and you turn

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over the page and he is deflecting

them. What is the overall message?

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The big thing was the forecasts. I

think Philip Hammond will have been

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relieved to have got through the

day. That was the priority, not to

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mess it up. He lives to fight

another day. From his point of view,

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and from the Conservative

government's point of view, spending

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money on the health service and

public sector pay politically is the

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wrong choice, because they need to

show that the economy will grow

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under a Tory government. Any money

they've got should be put into

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raising the growth potential of the

economy, and hoping that by the time

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the next election comes round, the

economy is picking up and that

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people have something to lose if

they vote for Jeremy Corbyn.

Rob,

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apart from your Vote Leave years,

you were also special adviser to Sir

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Michael Fallon, who has now left the

government. Can I ask you a bit, in

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personal terms, what it is like. He

was a big political figure and is

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now on the backbenches. He did

intervene a bit in the budget.

It is

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a very sudden change. You go from

being the Defence Secretary, making

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life and death decisions, and then

suddenly it disappears. There has

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been a tendency recently for

politicians to disappear off the

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second they have lost office. But

what Sir Michael did in the budget

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debate was to make a case firstly

about an important issue, employees'

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share ownership, and talk about how

we make Brexit a success. What comes

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through from Tim Shipman's really

good write-up of the budget is that

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it was quite a simplistic,

straightforward budget. It was

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low-key, it wasn't aiming to do too

much, expectations had been lowered

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very well and it was quite simple.

One big issue that Tory MPs will be

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looking at is, yes we have got

through a difficult period now, but

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what is going to change? What is

going to make people under the age

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of 50 vote for Conservative's what

can they offer? I think there is a

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lot to offer, but they will have to

articulate the case.

Ellie Mae

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O'Hagan, an interesting story in the

Observer. This is momentum asking

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would-be MPs to sign up to their

values if they want Momentum's

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support at the next election.

I

brought this up because I know that

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a lot of journalists watch your

show. I wanted to give them friendly

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advice, which is, stop trying to

make problems that are not there.

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Millions of people voted for the

Labour Party at the last election

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and a lot of people like the Labour

Party. It is called Stalinist here.

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Stalin was a dictator who sent

people to their death if they didn't

0:13:230:13:27

do what he wanted. Getting MPs to

sign a document which is essentially

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an ethics document, that everybody

who joins Momentum pass to sign up

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to, is just a nonstory.

Stalin would

never have allowed that beard! But

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is it not the case that Momentum,

the left of the party, are making

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very fast advances at the moment?

The top three candidates in the NEC

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elections are Momentum.

Maybe it

would be better to spend more column

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inches wondering why the so-called

moderates of the Labour Party are

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failing and why Corbyn is doing so

well.

Let's move to another leader.

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Very important what has happened in

Germany, to Europe and Brexit.

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Angela Merkel looks like she is

going to try to hold on.

Indeed.

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There is talk of her either running

a minority government or restoring a

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grand coalition with the Social

Democrats. The Social Democrats are

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split down the middle on this one.

Do they go into government and risk

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the possibility they are snuffed out

during the course of the coalition?

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A domestic point of view, and having

Angela Merkel in Powell, will be

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good for the Brexit negotiations.

There is another foreign affairs and

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story which is terrible. This huge

attack in Egypt on Suffi by Sunni

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Muslims.

The gunmen were wrapped in

the black flags of ISO. This is

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murderous and violent. The kind of

death cult that is Islamic State.

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They seem to want to do barbaric

violence and go to extremes. Britain

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is involved in a campaign against

IS, we are winning in Iraq and

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Syria.

Most of the extremist

Islamist violence is killing other

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Muslims, we should remember. There

is a real worry at the moment that

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we will be heading towards a Sunni

Shia war.

It is violence against a

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Muslim minority. We have seen

violence against Coptic Christians.

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IS goes for minorities. I would

suggest that the only real option

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for the evil of our time is the

rightly targeted cruise missile,

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rather than a different campaign.

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Tell us a little bit about this, the

Jezza annual.

This is just a bit of

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fun, I'm going to get this for my

mum.

She knows what she's getting

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for Christmas now, you have spoiled

it.

Jeremy Corbyn had a very tough

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time in the media when he first

became Labour leader and I think the

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sort of over the top phrase that his

supporters give him is a sort of

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reaction. It is kind of like a

Millwall fan thing, you all hate us

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and you don't care, a reaction to

the way he has been treated in the

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media. This is clearly a joke and

I'm going to be putting it in some

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people's stockings.

I don't want to

spoil it for your mum but there is a

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word search with the word

proletariat.

Amazing.

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And so to the weather.

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Bracing.

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Enlivening.

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Invigorating.

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Or, as some of you

might put it, cold.

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But bright as well.

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Ben Rich has more details.

0:17:380:17:39

Good morning, it is cold out there,

there is something milder on the way

0:17:390:17:43

but it hasn't arrived just yet.

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there is something milder on the way

but it hasn't arrived just yet. It

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looked like this for one of our

weather watchers in Dunbartonshire,

0:17:460:17:51

but tonight the change. Some wet and

windy weather and then it will turn

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milder but briefly is the operative

word. Eastern areas largely dry with

0:17:560:18:01

quite a lot of sunshine, showers

fading in the west. Some wintry

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weather over hills in the north,

then thickening cloud from Northern

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Ireland and temperatures just subtly

beginning to move up by a degree or

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two from yesterday. In Scotland some

hill snow, then this band of heavy

0:18:170:18:22

rain sinks into the Midlands with

some strong winds. We will see gales

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in places, but the south of the

rainbow and we get the mild air, 12

0:18:280:18:33

degrees in Plymouth but just three

in Aberdeen and as we go through

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tomorrow it's a process of bringing

that cold air south again. Then the

0:18:380:18:43

skies will brighten with some

sunshine, showers following on

0:18:430:18:47

behind on a strong wind, gales in

places. Wintry showers in the north,

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temperatures dipping away and the

cold air will be with us for much of

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the week ahead.

0:18:570:18:58

cold air will be with us for much of

the week ahead.

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It really is winter, isn't it.

0:18:580:19:02

In the early '80s, Benny and Bjorn

from ABBA were looking

0:19:020:19:05

for their next big project

after the supergroup

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had called it a day.

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Along came Tim Rice with a tale

of how the Russians and Americans

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used chess champions

as political pawns.

0:19:110:19:12

So was born the Cold War musical

"Chess" with hit songs

0:19:120:19:15

like "I Know Him So Well".

0:19:150:19:17

It returns to the London stage

in spring for the first

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time in three decades.

0:19:200:19:21

I caught up with Benny Andersson

and Tim Rice, who told me how real

0:19:210:19:24

events inspired Chess.

0:19:240:19:27

Well, I was trying to illustrate

that anybody who becomes well-known

0:19:270:19:31

in almost any field finds him

or herself approached

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and used by politicians,

particularly in the Chess world

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Bobby Fischer and Spassky,

that great Chess tussle

0:19:430:19:45

in Reykjavik in 1972,

in which Fischer was meant

0:19:450:19:51

to be "our guy" - which,

indeed he was, in theory -

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but he was a nasty piece of work,

and Spassky was the nasty

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chap from evil Russia,

but he was actually a charming

0:19:570:19:59

gentleman, so the whole story

was fascinating and was quite a good

0:19:590:20:02

inspiration for our show.

0:20:020:20:07

And you originally wanted

to write this with Andrew

0:20:070:20:09

Lloyd Webber, and...

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Oh, no!

0:20:100:20:11

He did!

0:20:110:20:12

He did!

0:20:120:20:13

Definitely he did.

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I did suggest the idea.

0:20:140:20:15

Before I'd met Bjorn and Benny,

I did suggest the idea to Andrew,

0:20:150:20:18

but he was working on Cats,

I think, or Phantom.

0:20:180:20:23

He was intrigued, but not gripped,

and to be honest, I did go to one

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or two other people,

including the late, great,

0:20:260:20:28

Marvin Hamlisch, but nobody really

thought it was a good idea

0:20:280:20:31

until I met Bjorn and Benny.

0:20:310:20:35

You never said!

0:20:350:20:36

We always thought we

were your first choice.

0:20:360:20:40

So you meet Bjorn and Benny,

you go to Stockholm,

0:20:400:20:42

and then to Moscow.

0:20:420:20:43

Yes.

0:20:430:20:46

Tim came to Stockholm.

0:20:460:20:47

Bjorn and I had been thinking

about this for quite a long time,

0:20:470:20:50

actually, that we should

try to write music for the theatre,

0:20:500:20:53

and when Tim came along we said,

Chess, that's a challenge.

0:20:530:21:00

Nobody wants to see

a musical about chess.

0:21:000:21:01

Let's do that.

0:21:010:21:02

# Wasn't it good?

0:21:020:21:03

# So good

0:21:030:21:04

# Wasn't he fine?

0:21:040:21:06

# So fine

0:21:060:21:11

# Isn't it madness he can't be mine?

0:21:110:21:15

I had no idea that Bjorn and Benny,

who were still huge...

0:21:150:21:18

They are even huger today,

that ABBA was still going strong.

0:21:180:21:23

An American producer

came to me in a hotel

0:21:230:21:29

in New York, '81-ish, and said,

0:21:290:21:32

"Have you heard of Arb-ba?"

0:21:320:21:33

And I said, "No."

0:21:330:21:34

I thought he was talking

about some sort of tree.

0:21:340:21:37

I was about to say, "I'm not really

interested in horticulture..."

0:21:370:21:40

and he said, "You know, Arb-ba -

Waterloo, Fernando, Dancing Queen."

0:21:400:21:43

I said, "Oh, ABBA!"

0:21:430:21:44

And he said, "Yes."

0:21:440:21:45

"Well, apparently they want

to write a musical."

0:21:450:21:47

And that was when I thought

I would approach them.

0:21:470:21:52

After asking Marvin Hamlisch!

0:21:520:21:54

You yourself a big music fan,

of course, right the way through.

0:21:540:21:57

You were a big Arb-ba fan.

0:21:570:21:59

What was the great secret

of Arb-ba, do you think?

0:21:590:22:01

Oh, gosh.

0:22:010:22:02

Well, wonderful songs,

which sounds obvious.

0:22:020:22:07

I think it was great melodies,

and very good presentation.

0:22:070:22:12

# How could I ever refuse?

0:22:120:22:14

# I feel like I win when I lose.

0:22:140:22:19

# Waterloo

0:22:190:22:20

# I was defeated,

you won the war

0:22:200:22:24

# Waterloo

0:22:240:22:26

# Promise to love

you forever more...

0:22:260:22:32

They were just unlike

anybody who came before.

0:22:320:22:35

Benny, I want to ask you something.

0:22:350:22:36

A lot of very, very serious,

pompous rock and pop music

0:22:360:22:39

going on at the time.

0:22:390:22:41

People taking themselves terribly

seriously, and you didn't

0:22:410:22:43

seem to take yourselves

quite so seriously.

0:22:430:22:46

No, but I would say

we treated our work seriously,

0:22:460:22:51

and we spent as much time as we had

available to us in the studio,

0:22:510:22:58

trying to be good at

what we were doing.

0:22:580:23:03

# Money, money, money

what we were doing.

0:23:030:23:04

# Must be funny

0:23:040:23:06

# In a rich man's world

0:23:060:23:10

# Money, money, money

0:23:100:23:12

# Always sunny

0:23:120:23:14

# In a rich man's world.

0:23:140:23:17

And some of the great bits

from Chess, out of the ABBA

0:23:170:23:23

songwriting experience

directly, don't they?

0:23:230:23:24

It all comes out from that.

0:23:240:23:26

It's just taking it a step further.

0:23:260:23:28

And what we did with

Chess was that...

0:23:280:23:32

Because Bjorn and I wanted to,

sort of, I don't know,

0:23:320:23:34

have a grip on what we were doing.

0:23:340:23:38

So we said, let's do a record first,

because that's our home territory

0:23:380:23:42

and we know where we are,

so let's do the recordings

0:23:420:23:45

first before we try to go

on to the West End, or whatever.

0:23:450:23:52

So clearly, we're going through this

extraordinary drama in Britain

0:23:520:23:57

at the moment over Brexit.

0:23:570:23:59

As a good Tory, Tim,

you're the man to write

0:23:590:24:01

Brexit: The Book, The Opera,

and music by...

0:24:010:24:03

It's a brilliant idea, isn't it?

0:24:030:24:06

It's a brilliant idea, isn't it?

0:24:060:24:08

Well...

0:24:080:24:09

No, it's a terrible idea.

0:24:090:24:13

All right.

0:24:130:24:14

Yes!

0:24:140:24:15

I don't know...

0:24:150:24:16

I think we should wait

and see what the end story

0:24:160:24:19

is before anybody tackles it,

but it's probably best,

0:24:190:24:21

just as I think Chess

would probably work better now,

0:24:210:24:24

looking back on a period, I think

maybe the great Brexit musical,

0:24:240:24:27

which I won't be around

to write, will be written

0:24:270:24:29

in about 25 years' time.

0:24:290:24:30

A sad but diplomatic answer!

0:24:300:24:32

I still think...

0:24:320:24:33

I keep saying that I want to see it

happen before I comment on it.

0:24:330:24:37

I mean, you're not out

of there yet, are you?

0:24:370:24:39

And we need you in there.

0:24:390:24:41

Why?

0:24:410:24:45

Because it's like,

you have a friend and he says,

0:24:450:24:49

well, I don't want to be friends

with you any more.

0:24:490:24:52

I want to be friends

with everybody in Europe!

0:24:520:24:54

Yeah, but now England says, we don't

want to be friends with you,

0:24:540:24:57

we want to be on our own.

0:24:570:24:59

I think they're only saying,

we don't want to be run by you.

0:24:590:25:02

But still, I'll say, I'll wait

to see it actually happening.

0:25:020:25:04

Fair enough.

Stay.

0:25:040:25:05

Thank you very, very much.

0:25:050:25:07

And the first major revival

of "Chess" in 30 years will be

0:25:070:25:10

at the London Coliseum from next

April.

0:25:100:25:13

Now coming up later this morning,

Sarah Smith talks to the man

0:25:130:25:16

who tried to topple Theresa May last

month - Grant Shapps.

0:25:160:25:22

And what did the Chancellor's

Budget do for the north?

0:25:220:25:25

She'll ask Greater Manchester

Mayor, Andy Burnham.

0:25:250:25:29

That's the Sunday Politics

at 11 here on BBC One.

0:25:290:25:32

We've had enough of experts,

so Michael Gove famously told us

0:25:320:25:34

during the referendum campaign.

0:25:340:25:39

But in Budget week, we haven't.

0:25:390:25:41

Paul Johnson of the Institute

for Fiscal Studies, is the economist

0:25:410:25:43

who's been marking the Government's

card, and producing some chilling

0:25:430:25:46

warnings about our economic future.

0:25:460:25:47

He's here with me now.

0:25:470:25:51

I mentioned those warnings at the

top of the show, I said we are going

0:25:510:25:55

to be poorer for longer than we

expected but they are just

0:25:550:25:59

forecasts, aren't they?

Yes, but

they are based on what's happening

0:25:590:26:04

at the moment. Real earnings are

falling now because inflation is

0:26:040:26:08

higher following the loss in value

of the pound. What the independent

0:26:080:26:13

Office for Budget Responsibility

have said is we look back over our

0:26:130:26:17

forecasts in the last six or seven

years, they have all been

0:26:170:26:21

overoptimistic so it's time to start

bringing them down. They will be

0:26:210:26:26

wrong but there is likely to be too

optimistic as they are too

0:26:260:26:31

pessimistic.

At this point you take

a ruler and draw a line from where

0:26:310:26:35

we are but we don't know what will

happen after Brexit, so there's a

0:26:350:26:41

range of possibilities. It could be

much brighter than I suggested at

0:26:410:26:44

the top of the show?

There is huge

uncertainty around this, it is

0:26:440:26:50

probably the moment of greatest

uncertainty that we know about at

0:26:500:26:53

least that we have faced in a long

time so it could be brighter but I

0:26:530:26:56

think they have taken the middle

part so it is just as likely to be

0:26:560:27:00

even worse than they are suggesting.

What would that feel like for us?

At

0:27:000:27:07

the moment it feels like what it has

felt like for a long time, earnings

0:27:070:27:12

are falling so people are feeling

the squeeze. The worry innocence

0:27:120:27:16

about the OBR's forecast is they

just think that will continue

0:27:160:27:26

broadening server burnings are no

higher than in 2008 which is

0:27:260:27:30

unprecedented.

Can I ask about the

Labour proposal but you can spend

0:27:300:27:35

£250 billion over ten years and get

that back in greater economic

0:27:350:27:40

growth.

The most important thing

about investing is how you spend it

0:27:400:27:44

so it is easy to talk about big

numbers and actually to be fair to

0:27:440:27:48

the current Chancellor he's

increasing investment to its highest

0:27:480:27:53

levels proportion of GDP that it has

been in at least 40 years so the

0:27:530:27:58

Conservatives are doing some of

this. If you look back at the 1997

0:27:580:28:03

Labour government they have big

plans to increase investment. I was

0:28:030:28:07

in the Treasury at the time and they

literally couldn't get the money out

0:28:070:28:11

of the door and that was on a

smaller scale than being suggested

0:28:110:28:14

at the moment. It's about making

this useful investment, getting the

0:28:140:28:19

money out of the door and getting

value for money.

When it comes to

0:28:190:28:23

ambitious plans to renationalise

swathes of the British economy, are

0:28:230:28:27

there upfront costs in your view?

That's a different kind of

0:28:270:28:31

investment so if you are paying for

an asset, what it's worth, the

0:28:310:28:36

Government balance sheets doesn't

change in reality although the

0:28:360:28:40

financial numbers will change. The

real issue here is do you really

0:28:400:28:44

believe these things were work

better in the public sector that

0:28:440:28:48

that's worth doing? Because if you

look over history, you can have an

0:28:480:28:53

argument about this but it is not

clear that the case.

Stay there for

0:28:530:28:57

now if you don't mind.

0:28:570:29:00

Listening to that was

Barry Gardiner, the Shadow Secretary

0:29:000:29:02

for International Trade.

0:29:020:29:04

In honest political terms, the

Budget went quite well for the

0:29:040:29:10

Chancellor, didn't it?

It went well

for him personally but this was the

0:29:100:29:13

Budget that actually admitted

failure and then said, "And we don't

0:29:130:29:20

know what to do about failure". But

if you look at the numbers going

0:29:200:29:25

forward they have admitted growth is

down by half a percent, productivity

0:29:250:29:31

is down by 0.7% and investment is

down by 1.5%. Instead of them

0:29:310:29:38

saying, and this is our plan to get

things back on the right track, they

0:29:380:29:44

basically have tinkered with the

economy. All the key things which at

0:29:440:29:49

the general election they set out as

the major challenges facing our

0:29:490:29:53

country - look at social care for

example, there was nothing in this

0:29:530:30:00

Budget for social care.

Their

position is that there isn't a huge

0:30:000:30:03

amount of money to tackle these in a

big way. Your position is spend the

0:30:030:30:09

money.

Now, our position is grow the

economy, Andrew. Just as in any

0:30:090:30:15

business, if you are finding that

you are running at a deficit, you

0:30:150:30:20

have got two things to do. One is

you can either cut your day to day

0:30:200:30:26

spending, and we have said we will

never borrow to fund day-to-day

0:30:260:30:30

spending, but we have said we will

borrow to invest to Grow the economy

0:30:300:30:35

so that as a proportion of GDP, debt

is reduced. That is the burden that

0:30:350:30:43

economies face. It is actually

whether the debt to GDP ratio is too

0:30:430:30:48

large. At the moment it is, what the

Chancellor said is I have no idea

0:30:480:30:53

how to get that down.

In that case,

under Labour, when will the deficit

0:30:530:30:58

be paid off?

0:30:580:31:04

Wii has said, under Labour, within

five years, that will come down. We

0:31:040:31:10

will have the deficit reducing.

When

will it be eliminated by?

0:31:100:31:14

Critically, we have said that we

will be growing the economy so that

0:31:140:31:19

debt is not the same burden on the

economy that it is.

Can you say when

0:31:190:31:24

the deficit would be eliminated?

I'm

not going to say that at all.

But

0:31:240:31:31

you are attacking the government for

not knowing whether the deficit will

0:31:310:31:34

be eliminated.

Don't put words in my

mouth. I did not say that. I could

0:31:340:31:41

have quoted the then Chancellor,

George Osborne, on the 15th of July

0:31:410:31:48

2015, when he said that by 2015, it

would be eliminated, and year on

0:31:480:31:54

year, the deficit would be reduced.

The debt as a proportion of GDP

0:31:540:31:59

would be reduced.

We are now being

told that by 2031 it will be

0:31:590:32:06

eliminated. Is that the same under

Labour?

You have deterred one of our

0:32:060:32:11

most eminent economists telling you

that we have drawn a line and it

0:32:110:32:15

could be on either side of it.

Anybody who wants to forecast what

0:32:150:32:20

our economy is going to be like in

2031 here, 14 or 15 years ahead of

0:32:200:32:27

that date, when we have not even

determined what the Brexit

0:32:270:32:31

negotiations are going to look like,

would be foolish, and you know that

0:32:310:32:35

as well as I do.

You mention the

Brexit negotiations. Let me turn to

0:32:350:32:41

the Irish border question. We have

to propositions on the table, one is

0:32:410:32:47

the Irish government's proposal,

which is that Northern Ireland

0:32:470:32:51

should be inside some sort of

customs union and single market, and

0:32:510:32:56

in those circumstances, there does

not have to be a border between

0:32:560:33:00

Northern Ireland and Southern

Ireland. Then there is the

0:33:000:33:03

government and Nigel Dodds saying

that it is important that Northern

0:33:030:33:07

Ireland comes out of the customs

union and the single market with the

0:33:070:33:11

rest of us. Which side are you on?

What this government has done is it

0:33:110:33:16

hasn't ruled out remaining a member

of the single market or a member of

0:33:160:33:21

the customs union. That is what they

have said very clearly. They are

0:33:210:33:25

going to leave both of those

institutions. We have not ruled

0:33:250:33:30

those of the table. We recognise the

benefits both of the single market

0:33:300:33:35

and of a customs union. Once we

leave the EU, we cannot be in the

0:33:350:33:40

customs union that we had, but with

a customs union, we recognise the

0:33:400:33:48

benefits of that, which is why we

have left those options on the

0:33:480:33:51

table. Unfortunately, we are not at

the negotiating table with the

0:33:510:33:58

European Union conducting those

negotiations.

No, you are not, but

0:33:580:34:01

there is only two weeks before this

has to be resolved. In the context

0:34:010:34:05

of their being a fortnight left,

what your options should be, and

0:34:050:34:14

what you think should happen?

You

think it is fair to ask this.

I do.

0:34:140:34:20

We are not the government. All we

can do is to mitigate the damage

0:34:200:34:25

that this government is doing. They

have been absolutely chaotic in

0:34:250:34:30

their negotiations.

It is an

agonisingly difficult choice, but it

0:34:300:34:34

is one you are not prepared to make.

It is not our call, and it would be

0:34:340:34:40

foolish of an opposition to actually

put out there and say, this is the

0:34:400:34:44

solution, when we are not in the

negotiations themselves. If we are

0:34:440:34:50

at the negotiating table, we can

have those discussions. If Theresa

0:34:500:34:55

May wanted to move over and call

that election, let us do that. Until

0:34:550:35:00

we are around that table, it's not

sensible to say what you can get out

0:35:000:35:05

of the negotiations, because you are

not sitting opposite someone trying

0:35:050:35:14

to get a deal.

We have to weeks to

go. What happens if we don't get

0:35:140:35:20

agreement in those next two weeks?

What happens in the House of

0:35:200:35:23

Commons?

The Irish government are

desperately worried about this. We

0:35:230:35:30

all are. They in particular are

worried because their economic

0:35:300:35:34

growth depends on the trade

relations that they have with the

0:35:340:35:39

UK. It used to be much larger, but

now it's about 17% still. It's a

0:35:390:35:45

huge slice of the economy. So they

are determined not to see a hard

0:35:450:35:50

border, but there are politics

playing into this, and we must

0:35:500:35:54

ensure that nothing is done that

damages the Good Friday Agreement.

0:35:540:35:59

To me, that's the bottom line, and

everybody should keep that in mind.

0:35:590:36:03

Thank you for coming to talk to us.

0:36:030:36:06

We'll speak in a moment

to Ruth Davidson, but before we do -

0:36:060:36:09

Paul Johnson - another

couple of points.

0:36:090:36:14

We were talking about the target for

paying off the deficit. It was going

0:36:140:36:21

to be 2015, now it's 2031. How big

this is that?

Back in 2015, George

0:36:210:36:27

Osborne had a target to borrow only

to invest by 2015. He missed that

0:36:270:36:35

target by some way because the

economy was growing. It's not

0:36:350:36:40

because there wasn't enough

austerity. It's because the economy

0:36:400:36:44

was growing. Borrowing is now down

to where it was pre-recession. It's

0:36:440:36:49

come down from the highest level by

far since the last war in 2009,

0:36:490:36:56

2010, to a more reasonable level.

The worry is, in a sense, is that

0:36:560:37:03

debt at about 90% of national

income, is a very high-level.

We

0:37:030:37:08

were always told that 90% was

intolerable, and now we are just

0:37:080:37:13

underneath it. How much are we

paying in debt interest?

Remarkably,

0:37:130:37:18

not more than we were ten years ago,

because interest rates are so low.

0:37:180:37:24

It is very cheap to borrow and the

drag on the economy at the moment is

0:37:240:37:28

minimal because of those very low

interest rates. We don't know at

0:37:280:37:33

what point debt becomes a problem.

At the moment, we are managing it

0:37:330:37:38

fine. The worry is, particularly

with slow growth forecasts, that

0:37:380:37:43

that debt is not going to come down

at all fast. With the uncertainty we

0:37:430:37:48

have around politics and Brexit, it

may not be possible to borrow that

0:37:480:37:53

cheaply forever.

What does slow

growth mean for earnings?

Earnings

0:37:530:37:58

are not rising at the moment. They

are falling. By 2020, they will

0:37:580:38:05

probably be lower than they were in

2008, which is historically

0:38:050:38:10

unprecedented, and that is making

people uncomfortable. With growth,

0:38:100:38:15

it is income that matter.

On that

subject, I am joined by Ruth

0:38:150:38:22

Davidson. The government has missed

its target on the deficit and debt.

0:38:220:38:27

This is a picture of economic

failure, isn't it?

You have just

0:38:270:38:32

heard from Paul Johnson that debt

interest is not higher than it was

0:38:320:38:35

and we've brought borrowing down to

its highest levels in decades from

0:38:350:38:40

its highest levels post war. We are

two thirds of the way to cutting the

0:38:400:38:45

deficit. One of the underlying

issues we have with growth in this

0:38:450:38:51

country is productivity, and this

budget has sought to address that.

0:38:510:38:56

In 2010, we were promised by your

party that the deficit would be

0:38:560:39:01

eliminated in 2015. Can you remind

us when the deficit will be

0:39:010:39:03

eliminated?

We are more than two

thirds of the way through that

0:39:030:39:09

process, not just because of the

hard work of the government, but the

0:39:090:39:14

hard work of everybody in this

country. We are trying to ensure we

0:39:140:39:18

have a balanced economy, so we can't

be criticised for cutting too much

0:39:180:39:22

on the one hand but not bringing

down borrowing on the other. It is

0:39:220:39:26

about trying to find that balanced

way forward.

You didn't answer my

0:39:260:39:32

question. On current figures, the

answer is by 2031. That is 16 years

0:39:320:39:46

of extra indebtedness. A toddler

watching this programme will be a

0:39:460:39:48

voter... They will be struggling

with the remote control, trying to

0:39:480:39:51

turn over to CBBC. They will be a

voter in the election before this

0:39:510:39:57

deficit is sorted. That is a massive

failure by your government.

The

0:39:570:40:02

deficit was run out before we came

to office. As your previous

0:40:020:40:07

independent adviser has said, we

have been bringing it down at a time

0:40:070:40:13

of low interest rates. The debt

interest is not higher than it was

0:40:130:40:17

ten years ago. We are making sure we

are building for the long-term, so

0:40:170:40:22

we have investment in infrastructure

and productivity. We are making sure

0:40:220:40:26

we have the housing we need, the

investment in skills we need. These

0:40:260:40:31

will carry us forward.

A couple of

years ago, you said that by 2020 we

0:40:310:40:37

would be in surplus. There is going

to be a £35 billion deficit then.

0:40:370:40:49

That is a terrible failure.

We are

bringing down the deficit we

0:40:490:40:51

inherited in a stable way. Barry

Gardiner just gave an extraordinary

0:40:510:40:54

interview, when he said the

Chancellor had had a very good

0:40:540:40:57

budget and he couldn't tell you what

Labour's plans were on the economy

0:40:570:41:03

on... Or Brexit. We inherited a mess

from a government who didn't know

0:41:030:41:06

what they were doing and we have

been sustainably bringing it down

0:41:060:41:11

over time. We have got over the hump

of the debt to GDP ratio this year.

0:41:110:41:20

We are the second fastest growing

economy of major developed countries

0:41:200:41:23

last year. We are investing in our

indeed, infrastructure and skills so

0:41:230:41:28

that we can have sustained growth.

I'm delighted that you are going to

0:41:280:41:33

answer some of my questions on

Brexit. Philip Hammond said in his

0:41:330:41:37

first budget that it was a privilege

to report on an economy that was

0:41:370:41:45

predicted to be the fastest-growing

major economy this year. Where are

0:41:450:41:48

we now?

We have seen that those have

been revised downwards, which is

0:41:480:41:57

disappointing, but we have

consistently broken some of the

0:41:570:42:00

forecasts of the future.

We are

right at the bottom, with Portugal.

0:42:000:42:06

The last year we had actual numbers,

not just forecasts, for last year,

0:42:060:42:13

2016, we were the second

fastest-growing major developed

0:42:130:42:17

economy in the world.

You used the

word productivity earlier on.

0:42:170:42:23

Productivity has been a problem in

this economy for a very long time.

0:42:230:42:29

In every budget between 2010 and

2015, the word wasn't even

0:42:290:42:33

mentioned. Haven't the Conservatives

been asleep at the wheel in terms of

0:42:330:42:39

getting productivity up again?

I

don't think you saw Alistair Brown

0:42:390:42:42

or Gordon -- Alistair Darling or

Gordon Brown mentioning this. Philip

0:42:420:42:50

Hammond has talked about looking at

skills training in his budget.

0:42:500:42:58

Technical education, infrastructure,

so that we are able to support

0:42:580:43:02

businesses and growth, to invest in

research and development, so we can

0:43:020:43:07

solve the productivity crisis. And

long-term investment... Paul

0:43:070:43:12

Johnson, your IS contributor a few

moments ago, let me just say this,

0:43:120:43:19

because it's quite important. He

said we were headed for 2.4% of our

0:43:190:43:24

GDP to be put into long-term

investment. That is the highest

0:43:240:43:28

level for 40 years. He said it was

remarkable at a time where there has

0:43:280:43:35

been great restrictions on the

budget, which shows there is a real

0:43:350:43:39

commitment to building Britain's

future going forward.

Lots of big,

0:43:390:43:44

abstract words, like productivity

and investment. You made your point

0:43:440:43:49

that yourself. Real wages. People

going out and working their socks

0:43:490:43:55

off every day. Real wages are going

to carry on falling until 2025. That

0:43:550:44:02

surely changes the entire political

context of this country.

We have

0:44:020:44:08

been making sure that people on the

lowest wages have had the biggest

0:44:080:44:12

wages, which is why there have been

rises in the national minimum wage

0:44:120:44:16

and the National Living Wage. We

have raised the threshold at which

0:44:160:44:21

you start paying tax. Somebody who

works full-time on the National

0:44:210:44:25

Living Wage is now £2000 a year

better off than they were in 2010.

0:44:250:44:32

That is a real difference, 7% above

the way in which inflation has been

0:44:320:44:37

rising. People on lower incomes have

had the better time. I know it's

0:44:370:44:42

tough.

And it's going to be tough

for a very long time.

That is why we

0:44:420:44:47

are doing more in terms of making

sure the wage themselves rise, and

0:44:470:44:51

taking back less in tax.

Turning to

Brexit. There is now a very clear

0:44:510:44:58

choice in front of the country, a

kind of existential choice. The

0:44:580:45:01

Irish EU Commissioner, the Taoiseach

himself, has said they want in

0:45:010:45:09

writing an agreement that Northern

Ireland will be part of a single

0:45:090:45:12

market or customs union arrangements

so that there doesn't have to be a

0:45:120:45:16

hard border between northern and

southern Ireland. On the other hand,

0:45:160:45:21

the DUP has made absolutely clear

that they will not put up with that.

0:45:210:45:24

We know that you are a Unionist, so

what is your view of the situation?

0:45:240:45:35

I think it is a false dichotomy. The

Prime Minister has made it clear she

0:45:350:45:40

doesn't want physical infrastructure

on the border. Nor should we see

0:45:400:45:50

anything that impacts on the

territorial integrity of the UK.

I'm

0:45:500:45:54

going to jump into that and ask you

for a solution. It's not. Dichotomy,

0:45:540:46:00

if Northern Ireland is in one

situation with the customs union and

0:46:000:46:03

the single market and the self is

still part of those things, there

0:46:030:46:07

has to be some kind of order and

nobody has explained how that will

0:46:070:46:11

be avoided so it is not a false

dichotomy, it is a real hard choice

0:46:110:46:15

that has to be made by the

Government. Which side are you on?

0:46:150:46:23

As you say, we have two weeks in

which it will get pretty tough in

0:46:230:46:26

that negotiating room. It doesn't

require commentators from outside

0:46:260:46:30

government like myself to try to

commit the UK governments to one way

0:46:300:46:34

or another and I'm not going to do

that on your programme.

If I may say

0:46:340:46:38

so, you are doing a Barry Gardiner!

I've had plenty of insults thrown at

0:46:380:46:45

me before but I'm not sure that one

will stick. I'm not sure me and

0:46:450:46:51

Barry are from the same political

tribe.

He was dodging this question

0:46:510:46:55

and you are dodging it too.

We know

this is one of the difficult bits of

0:46:550:47:01

the negotiation and we understand

that, but what we are proposing to

0:47:010:47:06

the European Union is that we don't

have to have an off-the-shelf

0:47:060:47:09

solution because we are different

case to any other country that

0:47:090:47:13

interacts with the EU. We are not

Canada, not Norway, because we are

0:47:130:47:18

the only country that has previously

been part of the European Union,

0:47:180:47:23

that complies with every rule and

regulation that will then sit

0:47:230:47:29

outside of it. I know from ten years

as a reporter before I was elected,

0:47:290:47:35

and you know from 30-something years

from reporting on negotiations that

0:47:350:47:40

people who walk up to their

microphones don't always reflect the

0:47:400:47:44

progress going on in the room. When

it comes to European negotiations it

0:47:440:47:49

is always a five past midnight job

so don't think that just because you

0:47:490:47:53

have members of the European

Commission who have a position to

0:47:530:47:57

defend, and I understand that, that

when you walk up to a microphone and

0:47:570:48:02

they are speaking to a home audience

that that necessarily reflect the

0:48:020:48:06

progress going on in the room.

And

if we don't get it resolved in two

0:48:060:48:14

weeks, how serious is that for the

entire Brexit negotiations? Do we

0:48:140:48:18

need to get onto the trade talks?

I

think it's really important we get

0:48:180:48:25

the transitional deal nailed down

for businesses so they know what

0:48:250:48:28

they are doing next year and they

are able to plan, but I do

0:48:280:48:32

understand that if we don't make it

through in the next two weeks onto

0:48:320:48:37

that phase, we will rapidly run out

of time in terms of getting us into

0:48:370:48:41

a good position by the time that

transitional deal is supposed to

0:48:410:48:45

take place.

So this is quite a hard

deadline in your view?

It is hard in

0:48:450:48:51

the sense that it constricts the

amount of time we have got to do

0:48:510:48:54

things if we don't make it into the

next phase. I don't think it means

0:48:540:48:59

the world has ended but it is a

setback.

Ruth Davidson, thank you

0:48:590:49:05

for talking to us today.

Thank you.

0:49:050:49:09

I'm feeling very old.

0:49:090:49:10

It's ten years since I interviewed

the Archbishop of York,

0:49:100:49:13

John Sentamu, about Robert Mugabe's

regime in Zimbabwe

0:49:130:49:14

when this happened.

0:49:140:49:16

People there are starving,

a lot of people are traumatised.

0:49:160:49:19

You know, as an African,

as an Anglican this is

0:49:190:49:22

what I wear to identify myself,

that I'm a clergyman.

0:49:220:49:24

Do you know what Mugabe has done?

0:49:240:49:26

He's taken people's identity

and literally, if you don't

0:49:260:49:28

mind, cut it to pieces.

0:49:280:49:30

This is what he's actually

done, and in the end

0:49:300:49:33

there's nothing.

0:49:330:49:33

So as far as I'm concerned,

from now on I'm not going

0:49:330:49:36

to wear a dog collar

until Mugabe has gone.

0:49:360:49:39

My goodness.

0:49:390:49:40

Archbishop, that is

a dramatic gesture and

0:49:400:49:41

everybody will observe it.

0:49:410:49:43

Thank you very much

indeed for coming in.

0:49:430:49:45

Thank you, Andrew, and keep

my pieces by the way.

0:49:450:49:47

Collect them until the day

when Zimbabwe is free.

0:49:470:49:50

And then we will give you them back.

0:49:500:49:53

Well, now Mugabe has gone,

is it time for the Archbishop

0:49:530:49:55

to put his dog collar back on?

0:49:550:49:57

I sat down with him yesterday,

and he began by telling me

0:49:570:50:00

about something that happened to him

in the days leading up

0:50:000:50:03

to Mugabe's resignation.

0:50:030:50:08

I hadn't been able to sleep

and suddenly Zimbabwe

0:50:080:50:10

were very, very strong in my mind.

0:50:100:50:12

And I said, "Lord, it's

been going on for a long

0:50:120:50:15

time, how does this end?"

0:50:150:50:16

And then I almost hear a little

voice saying, "Light a candle.

0:50:160:50:21

At the end when it burns out will be

the beginning of the end

0:50:210:50:27

of the government of Robert Mugabe."

0:50:270:50:29

I lit the candle, told my wife,

and it started burning.

0:50:290:50:33

It went out on the 14th of November.

0:50:330:50:36

Very interesting.

0:50:360:50:39

And then I heard another voice -

"Light another, and when it goes

0:50:390:50:42

out, Mugabe will be gone."

0:50:420:50:44

And that one ran out on the 21st.

0:50:440:50:48

What did it mean to you yourself not

to have a collar on all that period?

0:50:480:50:53

When I wake up or dress up and I'm

getting out of the house,

0:50:530:50:58

normally I tie the top button

and then put on my collar.

0:50:580:51:04

But for nearly ten years,

I haven't been able to put

0:51:040:51:07

on my collar back really, and it has

meant I remember Zimbabwe.

0:51:070:51:12

So every morning you're thinking

Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe.

0:51:140:51:17

Yeah.

0:51:170:51:19

And you said to me back then,

you said, "Here are the bits

0:51:190:51:22

of my collar, keep them for me."

0:51:220:51:23

Nearly ten years on,

I have got them for you.

0:51:230:51:26

They have been sitting in my desk.

0:51:260:51:28

They are in a slightly

crumpled old envelope

0:51:280:51:29

but here they all are and I said I'd

give them back,

0:51:290:51:32

and so I give them back.

0:51:320:51:34

Thank you.

0:51:340:51:35

There they go, I don't know

if you can pull them out there.

0:51:350:51:38

Yes.

0:51:380:51:39

They're all in here?

0:51:390:51:40

They are all there, yes.

0:51:400:51:41

You have been a very faithful

friend, you have kept them.

0:51:410:51:44

That's lovely, and they're all here.

0:51:440:51:45

Do you know, Andrew,

I could attempt to put this one back

0:51:450:51:48

or I could try and put them

all together using superglue.

0:51:480:51:53

It would be a pretty

ropey collar, Archbishop.

0:51:530:51:55

Ropey collar.

0:51:550:51:57

And I actually think the lesson

for Zimbabwe is the same.

0:51:570:52:01

They just can't try

and stitch it up.

0:52:010:52:03

Something more radical,

something new needs to happen

0:52:030:52:06

in terms of the rule of law,

you know, allowing people

0:52:060:52:11

to get jobs because 90%

of people aren't at work.

0:52:110:52:14

So they can't just stitch it up,

I need a new collar.

0:52:140:52:20

So, here is the million dollar

question - are you going to put

0:52:200:52:23

a collar back on again now,

Archbishop?

0:52:230:52:25

Andrew, I promised that when Mugabe

goes, I put my collar on,

0:52:250:52:29

so I have no choice but to put

it back on.

0:52:290:52:32

To keep your promise.

0:52:320:52:33

Absolutely.

0:52:330:52:34

Mugabe has gone, but the new

president has got to remember

0:52:340:52:37

something more new than simply

stitching up a thing.

0:52:370:52:43

Archbishop, you are looking

as you should - congratulations,

0:52:430:52:45

but is Zimbabwe as it should be?

0:52:450:52:49

We've got a new president coming in,

Emmerson Mnangagwa.

0:52:490:52:52

He was one of the hench

people of Mugabe.

0:52:520:52:54

He is called "the crocodile".

0:52:540:52:56

Are you convinced that real

change is happening?

0:52:560:53:03

Well, I mean he's implicated

into a lot of other stuff.

0:53:030:53:06

He's been denying, for example,

the Gukurahundi, the massacre

0:53:060:53:08

in Matabeleland and Manicaland.

0:53:080:53:09

He was heavily involved

in that massacre.

0:53:090:53:11

Well, he was the Minister,

the Minister of security

0:53:110:53:17

and also he was in charge of the

Central Intelligence Organisation.

0:53:170:53:22

The answer for me and for him is not

simply what he said,

0:53:220:53:25

"let bygones be bygones,"

because people in Matabeleland

0:53:250:53:28

and Manicaland, who lost

nearly 20,000 people,

0:53:280:53:33

it's as if it happened yesterday.

0:53:330:53:34

So somehow he's got to find

a way of sorting it out.

0:53:340:53:39

Now, who am I to advise him?

0:53:390:53:42

But all I would say, he needs

similar to what South Africa did.

0:53:420:53:46

A truth, justice and reconciliation

commission to look

0:53:460:53:48

into it so that this doesn't hang

over him like a big cloud.

0:53:480:53:51

Now, I'm a man of faith.

0:53:510:53:52

I am a strong believer in hope

and therefore a strong

0:53:520:53:55

believer people can change.

0:53:550:53:56

It's quite possible that, you know,

Emmerson Mnangagwa could actually be

0:53:560:54:00

a very good president,

but he can't simply bury the past.

0:54:000:54:03

It won't go away.

0:54:030:54:06

As you say, you are man of faith.

0:54:060:54:09

Robert Mugabe himself said,

"Nobody can remove me

0:54:090:54:11

from office but God."

0:54:110:54:13

Now he's been removed

from office, and I wonder,

0:54:130:54:15

is it possible to forgive him?

0:54:150:54:19

You used to say he should go

to The Hague and face international

0:54:190:54:22

court for his crimes

against people of Zimbabwe.

0:54:220:54:24

Now he has gone and there

seems to be a new mood.

0:54:240:54:27

Even Morgan Tsvangirai saying,

"Let the old man be in peace."

0:54:270:54:34

Do you think he should be forgiven?

0:54:340:54:36

It's not for me, he never killed

any of my relations.

0:54:360:54:38

At the time, the crimes were so raw

and so important but what happened

0:54:380:54:42

to South Africa with the truth

and reconciliation commission,

0:54:420:54:44

people were able to say

"we are sorry we did this,"

0:54:440:54:47

and Mugabe at some point needs

to say to the people of Zimbabwe,

0:54:470:54:51

"37 years, I took on a country

which was fantastic

0:54:510:54:54

and nearly took it to ruin.

0:54:540:54:57

Zimbabweans, forgive me."

0:54:570:55:00

You want him to reflect,

look in the mirror, and apologise?

0:55:000:55:03

Yes, because he's a very,

very intelligent man.

0:55:030:55:07

And actually I think he's

capable of doing it.

0:55:070:55:11

You heard him say, "we must learn

to forgive" but how can people

0:55:110:55:15

forgive you if you don't admit

that was your plan?

0:55:150:55:19

So he needs to do the second bit,

having asked and done not rather

0:55:190:55:26

So he needs to do the second bit,

having asked and done that rather

0:55:260:55:29

rambling speech a few days ago -

"Zimbabweans, we must

0:55:290:55:32

all learn to forgive."

0:55:320:55:33

OK fine, Mr former president.

0:55:330:55:34

Can you listen to the things

you have done wrong to us

0:55:340:55:37

and ask us for forgiveness?

0:55:370:55:38

And I'm quite sure Zimbabweans

probably would do.

0:55:380:55:40

Cutting up that dog collar

was a very dramatic moment.

0:55:400:55:42

It made me completely

speechless on television.

0:55:420:55:44

Not for the first time,

but I was dumbfounded

0:55:440:55:46

and I didn't know what to say.

0:55:460:55:48

Did it actually change

anything though?

0:55:480:55:49

I think what it did

is that the Christians

0:55:490:55:52

were galvanised to be

praying for Zimbabwe.

0:55:520:55:56

People realised that some

change needs to happen.

0:55:560:55:59

But hope can take a long time,

and a friend of mine has said that

0:55:590:56:02

hope is believing in spite

of the evidence and then watching

0:56:020:56:05

the evidence change.

0:56:050:56:08

We have just watched

that evidence change.

0:56:080:56:10

Archbishop, thanks very much

indeed for talking to us.

0:56:100:56:12

Thank you, thank you,

thank you, Andrew.

0:56:120:56:14

Nice to see you again.

0:56:140:56:15

Nice to see you again as well.

0:56:150:56:22

That's nearly all for this week.

0:56:220:56:23

Next Sunday my guests will include

the actor Matt Smith,

0:56:230:56:26

on the strange affinity

between Doctor Who and

0:56:260:56:28

the Duke of Edinburgh.

0:56:280:56:29

We leave you now with music

from Jools Holland,

0:56:290:56:31

Ruby Turner and Jose Feliciano.

0:56:310:56:32

From their new album

'As You See Me Now',

0:56:320:56:34

here is something I can almost

guarantee you'll like -

0:56:340:56:37

'Hit The Road Jack'.

0:56:370:56:38

Take it away.

0:56:380:56:41

# Woah woman, oh woman, don't treat

me so mean.

0:56:510:56:54

# You're the meanest old woman

that I've ever seen.

0:56:540:56:56

# I guess if you said so.

0:56:560:56:58

# I'd have to pack my things and go.

0:56:580:57:00

# That's right

# Hit the road Jack and don't

0:57:000:57:02

you come back no more,

no more, no more, no more.

0:57:020:57:05

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more.

0:57:050:57:08

# What you say?

0:57:080:57:13

# Now baby, listen baby, don't ya

treat me this-a way.

0:57:130:57:15

# Cos I'll be back

on my feet some day.

0:57:150:57:18

# Don't care if you do

cos it's understood

0:57:180:57:20

# You ain't got no money

you just ain't no good.

0:57:200:57:23

# Well, I guess if you say so.

0:57:230:57:25

# I'd have to pack my things and go.

0:57:250:57:27

# That's right

0:57:270:57:28

# Hit the road Jack and don't

0:57:280:57:29

you come back no more,

no more, no more, no more.

0:57:290:57:32

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more.

0:57:320:57:37

# What you say?

0:57:370:57:39

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more,

0:58:250:58:28

no more, no more, no more.

0:58:280:58:29

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more.

0:58:290:58:37

# Uh, what you say?

0:58:370:58:40

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more,

0:58:400:58:43

no more, no more, no more.

0:58:430:58:44

# Hit the road Jack and don't

you come back no more.

0:58:440:58:47

# Well

# Don't you come back no more.

0:58:470:58:51

# You can't mean that.

0:58:510:58:52

# Don't you come back no more.

0:58:520:58:56

# Oh, now baby, please.

0:58:560:58:57

# Don't you come back no more.

0:58:570:58:59

# What you tryin' to do to me?

0:58:590:59:01

# Don't you come back no more.

0:59:010:59:06

# Don't you come back no more.

0:59:060:59:08

# Don't you come back no more.

0:59:080:59:14

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